Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 06, 2022

Ukraine - A Second 'Counteroffensive' Contrary To U.S. Advice - IAEA Report

The Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' in the southern Kherson region has made little progress and binds a lot of Ukrainian resources and available units.

Despite that, and against advice from the U.S. military, Ukraine has now launched a second 'counteroffensive' in the north-eastern Kharkiv region of Ukraine.

AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 @AZmilitary1 - 13:06 UTC · Sep 6, 2022

‼️ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 AFU has launched an offensive on Balakleya, heavy fighting started is underway
▪️For more than a month, the AFU pulled together reserves and created a strike force in the Kharkiv direction.
▪️Now, after a powerful artillery preparation, they have gone on the offensive, throwing forward armored vehicles, fighting is going on on the outskirts of the city.
▪️The artillery and aviation of the Russian army are hitting the sprawling advancing enemy forces.
▪️Allied forces blew up bridges to obstruct the AFU's advance.
▪️Armored vehicles work in battles on the outskirts.
▪️Allied reserves are being tightened.
▪️The Russian Aerospace Forces struck the headquarters of the operational command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Chuguev
▪️The offensive in the south is not a distraction, it's just that the enemy has planned and launched several offensive operations, and attempts to break through are also continuing in the Kherson region
▪️There is no panic. In Balakleya there are mostly mobilized. Now reserves are going to Balakleya. The barrel and rocket artillery are working. Aviation is actively working.
There is no talk of a deep breakthrough. The situation + is similar to the Nahtsee counteroffensive in the Kherson direction.


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Balakleya (Balaklya, Balakliia) originally had 25,000 inhabitants, many of whom will likely have departed by now. On March 3 it was taken by Russian forces without much fighting.

Here is an overview of the area. Balakleya is in the middle of the map, southeast of Kharkiv and northwest of Izium.


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Here are more details. West and south of the city are various rivers and streams but also some woods where troops can assemble and hide until they get called up.


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Attacking across a river is always dangerous as supplies and the way of retreat can easily be cut off.

A satellite view of the city. To the north-northeast of the city, where the above map shows a rail yard, was once a very large ammunition depot. In March 2017 it famously blew up (vid). Back then the city was evacuated. Lots of houses got damaged (vid).


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West of the former strategic ammunition depot is the village of Verbovka where fighting is currently ongoing.

I do not understand why the Ukrainian military decided to attack in Balakleya. A medium size city is relative easy to defend. The rivers on the Ukrainian approach make it difficult to keep the supplies going. The bridges can be bombed any time. The city is not really near to any significant supply route between Russia and Izium which was the target of previous offensives in the area (all failed). The strategic value of the city is thus dubious.

A week ago it was reported that the U.S. military had urged Ukraine to not launch several 'counteroffensives':

In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.

Those discussions involved engaging in "war-gaming" with Kyiv, the sources said -- analytical exercises that were intended to help the Ukrainian forces understand what force levels they would need to muster to be successful in different scenarios.

The Ukrainians were initially considering a broader counteroffensive, but narrowed their mission to the south, in the Kherson region, in recent weeks, US and Ukrainian officials said.

Its really hard to understand why the Ukraine is launching two operations with the main effort in both involving a river crossing. They bind resources that will likely soon be needed in the south of the Donetsk region where the Russian 3rd Corp is preparing for an attack.

The latest Rybar report on the situation near Balakleya says (machine translation):

The situation in the Kharkov direction as of 17.00 September 6, 2022

▪️After several days of artillery preparation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an attack on Balakleya, which had been occupied back in March. The Ukrainian command has been preparing an offensive for a month and daily transferring equipment and personnel to the city: the last large column passed through Andreevka, located to the north-west, just yesterday.

▪️Ukrainian units advanced from the village of Prishib in the direction of Verbovka to the north of the city. Local resources reported that bridges across the Balakleyka and Extreme Balakleyka rivers were blown up in order to prevent further advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while some of the overpasses were allegedly put out of action in advance in the previous few days.

▪️Despite the bravura statements of Ukrainian resources, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not enter Balakleya. All battles are currently taking place in the area of ​​the village of Verbovka and the 65th arsenal located there. Reinforcements of the RF Armed Forces were sent to the city and its environs.

▪️The Russian Aerospace Forces attacked the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Chuguev, from where the leadership of the attack on Balakleya was going. In order to camouflage, the Ukrainian command set up a false command post in the city, but the RF Armed Forces did not fall for the trick and hit the target.

▪️At the same time, unconfirmed information appeared about the advance of Russian troops in the north of the Kharkiv region in the direction of the village of Shestakovo and the capture of the settlements of Bayrak and Peremoga.


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In other news the IAEA has published its report (pdf) on nuclear safeguards in Ukraine. As expected the report does not say that the Ukraine army is shelling the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant (ZNPP), which the IAEA recently visited. It also does not say that Russia is shelling the plant (which it does not). The shells and the damage the IAEA has seen during its visit just somehow must have appeared from the sky.

It reports that the personnel on the site is working under nearly normal shift conditions and is not under pressure from Russia. The Ukraine had falsely claimed that the reactor crews were under duress.

Posted by b on September 6, 2022 at 15:58 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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The remedy for failing in Kherson,the furthest point in a way.Is to start an offensive on what is essentially Russias doorstep?

Posted by: Bob | Sep 6 2022 16:06 utc | 1

thanks b...

Posted by: james | Sep 6 2022 16:10 utc | 2

Since there is a new thread specifically about it, I am going to repost my I have just written:

Ok, Russia is winning. Ukraine is being grinded down. Europe will have a cold winter. We all - most - here know this, and western MSM, "intelligence" and experts have been lying shamelessly for monthes. But we can't turn a blind eye to what is happening on the battlefield. Donbass liberation has gone from liberating settlements to cleansing fortified positions. Likewise, Ukraine has launched the Kherson offensive and today started another offensive front in Kharkov-Izyum.

Does that mean Russians are going to be pushed back to their territories, that Ukraine is going to win the war, blah blah blah? Hell no. But the ultra "optimistic" predictions from the likes of Gonzalo have been proved to be way off. He has been saying Ukraine will collapse any minute for monthes. Odessa and Kharkov would by Russian garanteed. And even said Russia would eventually push all the way to the west - where he thought Russians would "leave" for Poland.

Kherson offensive has been a disaster and an utter failure. Kharkov/Izyum has just started, and I am expecting - and hoping - it is going to follow suit. But, the point is, these are not the movements of an army that is likely to collapse any minute. It seems the NATO financing was bigger than anticipated.

Yes, Donbass will be liberated. No, Ukraine will not "retake" the south. However, at this point, I am seriously doubting Russia will get anywhere near Odessa or Kharkov, unless they seriously ramp things up.

And if the trend keeps up, the more likely NATO will mantain/increase the support. To see Europe to crumble in winter would be gold, but what if it doesn't happen? It seems a lot of folks are putting all their chips on the assured assumption that all of Europe will succumb in the coming monthes. It is a reckless "strategy".

I sincerely hope this is not the single Russian option/expectation, because this wouldn't be a strategy, but a gamble. Hoping is not a strategy.

But then, what do I know?

Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 6 2022 16:13 utc | 3

I think it is not the role of IAEA to pin the responsibility of the shelling on one of the belligerents (frankly I’m surprised they did not on Russia since all the international bodies are under US pressure). Better that than falsifying reports as did the OPCW in Syria.

Posted by: scc | Sep 6 2022 16:22 utc | 4

After summer 1918, allied commentators had all but given up on German defeat in 1918, given Germamy’s very much intact offensive capabilities, which it had just demonstrated. Everyone, even Lenin, was expecting mid 1919 as the decisive tipping point. Then the newfound German offensive confidence was quickly found to be not one of strength, but desperation.

Ukraine is not even doing as well as the Germans. We all know how two front wars go when the resources don’t even exist to sustain the one.

Posted by: Cesare | Sep 6 2022 16:29 utc | 5

Yes, #4 you are correct.

Everyone is crowing about "Winter is Coming". Well, Spring and Summer come after Winter.

The EU "leaders" would rather let all the poors die than look for peace. The only way they will be convinced otherwise is by a credible threat of revolt. Protests are not yet revolt. Or a von Stauffenberg clique within NATO succeeds in a coup. Hardly possible these days with omnipresent Five Eyes surveillance.

The UA leadership are happy to send waves and waves of poorly equipped conscripts to death until there are no more conscripts to serve.

This manpower reserve will last a long time, since most Ukrainians in the western regions believe they are fighting to the death for their country, and that the West will eventually intervene with a no-fly zone and then ground troops.

The Western leadership is calculating that Putin is weak, and thus they push red lines further in a brazen manner.

Getting newly unemployed EU citizens from 18-40 to die at the Ostfront is a good outcome for the US and the UK.

The Russian army was plagued with problems and was obviously not ready for a large scale war. It is clearly deficient in manpower, air supremacy is only in eastern areas, they are fighting almost blind compared to the ISR abilities the Americans possess.

No doubt the usual circle of frauds, pick up artists, paedophiles, grifters and cranks will pump out more blog posts and YouTube videos showing their expertise, and quote each other to say everything is just fine - going according to the secret Russian plan.

The internet is a magical portal to psychosis.. beware of its charms.

Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 6 2022 16:30 utc | 6

the impression one gets of the Russian strategy is that it gives the impression of being weak and unguarded enough to attract the Ukrainian forces in well-designed tuna traps, once inside, as happens with tuna, they are made food for the worms and without any danger to civilians,
and as the Ukrainian commander says, the Ukronazi army has already lost hundreds of thousands of men and almost all of its armament

Posted by: Cagliostro | Sep 6 2022 16:31 utc | 7

Sorry b,
I should have posted (5) under my nickname scc.
Will keep that for any other posting. If you can modify, please do iso

Posted by: scc | Sep 6 2022 16:31 utc | 8

As long as Russia permits NATO supplies into Ukraine this War will drag on. Somehow eguipment , ammunition, food , etc, is reaching the front lines . Maybe time to shut all down . Russia claims air superiority right ?

Posted by: sigmund | Sep 6 2022 16:34 utc | 9

@ Pobeda. From where I'm sitting (on the other side of the globe) it looks to me that support for this belligerence aimed at Russia is eroding. The reason being it makes no sense and is of no legitimate benefit to anyone. This has to be a consideration.

Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 16:35 utc | 10

@Cesare,

German army of either WWI or WWII is a tough measure stick for anyone to live up to, hehe. I don't think the Ukrainians can measure up even in terms of fanaticism.

So yeah, I hope they both have the same ending.

Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 6 2022 16:35 utc | 11

A week ago it was reported that the U.S. military had urged Ukraine to not launch several 'counteroffensives':

In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.

I don't find credible that Ukraine's military would have undertaken these "counteroffensives" without US approval/demand. It therefore seems to me that this passage is intended to give the US plausible deniability of responsibility should the Ukraine military collapse.

Posted by: David Levin | Sep 6 2022 16:37 utc | 12

NATO supplies that come to Ukraine dilutes the military capacity of the NATO itself. NATO wants the Ukrainians to fight it out for them, but Russia is hitting the EU with gas blockade. Winter is coming!

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Sep 6 2022 16:39 utc | 13

The change in Russian strategy came at the behest of the DRP. Break the defence line. Is it strategically the smartest thing to do? Not really,but if it's required to keep your ally's happy,it limits your choices. The Mariupol seige was lengthened for the same reason. Ukraine quite happy to commit war crimes to buy time. Ukraine having to conscript women,presumably as replacement garrison toops. Should more more than anyone pontificating on the internet.Clue you in to the direction of travel.

Posted by: Bob | Sep 6 2022 16:40 utc | 14

@chunga,

Sure, it looks like it, and I hope so. But it is not wise to rely upon it as your only "strategy". I hope Russians have many different strategies and outcomes. Otherwise, it might not end well.

Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 6 2022 16:40 utc | 15

@10;

Russia does not have even air superiority over Western Ukraine (and definitely not supremacy).

Their ability to find and recognise targets is minimal compared to the US.

Their kill chain is far too slow.

Thus they cannot interdict supplies in any meaningful way unless they started carpet bombing with their strategic bombing fleet, which would entail Bomber Harris style civilian destruction.

Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 6 2022 16:42 utc | 16

There is no panic

Glad we cleared up that there is absolutely no panic whatsoever in Balakliya.

On a serious note, I wouldn't read too much into the CNN piece claiming that US/Ukraine wargaming decided that a single offensive direction was best. That's exactly the sort of story that one would plant in the media using anonymous sources to create a false impression and confuse the enemy.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 16:42 utc | 17

@ David Levin | Sep 6 2022 16:37 utc | 13

i was thinking the same... when i read that line, it sounded off.. thanks...

@ Pobeda | Sep 6 2022 16:40 utc | 16

well of course russia has many different strategies here, as does the west... this is a given!

Posted by: james | Sep 6 2022 16:43 utc | 18

the only shocking part to me was the US advising against the second wave attack. maybe they don't want Ukraine to lose too quickly, gotta bleed Russia some more. not that that will work anyway.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 6 2022 16:46 utc | 19

Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 6 2022 16:42 utc | 17

the US that lost to the Taliban. uh huh.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 6 2022 16:50 utc | 20

@b:

…in the north-eastern Karkiv region…

…southeast of Karkiv…

The city is written as Харьков (Har’kov) in Russian and Харкiв (Harkiv) in Ukrainian. A long time ago, the Library of Congress has made a decision to transliterate Russian (and Ukrainian) letter Х х as Kh kh; I disagree with their decision and think that simple H h fits better, but it is what it is. So the city is written as Kharkov or Kharkiv in English, depending on whether the writer wants to emphasize the reality of 100% of Kharkov’s residents speaking Russian or the fact that it is currently part of the Ukraine. It is certainly not Karkiv, though.

Posted by: S | Sep 6 2022 16:51 utc | 21

Massive Ukrainian casualties in the centre of Ukraine are harder to cover up than in the east. If the Ukrainians run out,no amount of weaponry will make a difference. NATO nations are casualty shy,hence the preference for proxy wars.

Posted by: Bob | Sep 6 2022 16:53 utc | 22

@Pedoba It could be that my pollyanna is showing in the belief that humans can/might still manage to know right from wrong. I am not a military expert but somehow I've led myself to believe Russia has much more powerful weapons at it's disposal and refrains from using them because they do not want to hurt innocent people "shock and awe" style. Also they might be saving them to fight the ramrods of this activity; Washington, Brussels, London.

This thought of mine has to be tempered because in the US, as I see it, there is no Zeitgeist. This might be the same in Europe. It is fractured in many pieces and is racing in no particular direction. I'm not sure a majority in the US knows right from wrong.

Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 16:57 utc | 23

It’s clear that Ukrainian Army is able to move troops and equipment around. They have fuel, rail tracks and trains, road tracks, roads, bridges. I wonder why all this infrastructure is not destroyed at least partially. Having to repair roads an rail tracks and bridges would prevent UA from waging offensives.

Posted by: RB | Sep 6 2022 16:59 utc | 24

Posted by: RB | Sep 6 2022 16:59 utc | 26

it would also lead to a lot of rebuilding after Russia wins the war.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 6 2022 17:01 utc | 25

@Pobeda #24, I've never said the MSM is completely reliable. All sources have their strengths and weaknesses, MSM is too quick/willing to print stories based on anonymous sources. You might as well say "wow, b loves the MSM now and thinks they're 100% credible", but that would be dumb - everyone should read a wide array of sources and use some degree of discernment to try and filter out what is real & newsworthy.

Yesterday, you were advocating for Russia to deliberately target Ukrainian military hospitals, a clear & vile war crime. In fact, you were practically salivating at the idea. I'm curious to see what your bloodthirsty imagination comes up with today. This is a safe space so you can tell us your deepest fantasies of criminal savagery.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 17:04 utc | 26

Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 16:57 utc | 25

Well, not sure what you mean by no Zeitgeist in the West. The prevailing thought, idea is Russophobia and anti China sentiment. Fight against “authoritarianism” in defense of “democracy”. Putin as an embodiment of evil.

Posted by: RB | Sep 6 2022 17:10 utc | 27

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFpHtufCIZ4

Jimmy Dore has the hosts of the Duran on. in other news, Jon Steward puts a medal on a contestant from the Azov Battalion.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 6 2022 17:10 utc | 28

chunga@11

You are right: the campaign against Russia, also designed to demonise China by association, is running out of steam. It was always wrapped in the assertion that a combination of sanctions and 'disgust' at Russia's 'imperialist' behaviour would quickly bring regime change in Moscow.
This message was so convincing, it would seem, that it persuaded Sweden and Finland to throw away all previous strategies and join up with NATO to share its death throes. It also led to Switzerland, which had remained neutral since Bonaparte's day and indeed traded on its neutrality, to pile on against Russia.

Part of the explanation, thoroughly discussed on this site, has been the low quality of the intern calibre cadet politicians whose judgement has been called upon by the various peoples of Europe. But there must have been more to it than bad judgement and loyalty to the CIA and ivy festooned alma maters.
It is very likely that NATO intelligence had cooked up some extravagant story about its influence in the Kremlin, not to mention its insurgent allies in the Communist Party of China, that excited the Scandinavians with the prospect of a new feast on a dying Russia- the umpteenth since the eleventh century. It is hard to believe that, unless they were absolutely sure that Putin and Lavrov were on the way out, with US friendly replacements ready to enter from the wings, even the clowns in Helsinki and Stockholm would have chosen this moment to stake their diplomatic all.

There comes a time when The Mightiest of Wurlitzers simply deafens people.

That is what seems to have happened here. And nothing exemplifies it more than the stunning miscalculation of the whizz kids in Washington in their assumption that India would join in the campaign against Russia and China. I suspect that it might have done had anyone in Delhi believed that NATO had a hope in hell of success. The RSS might be fascists but they've tried backing Nazis before, and lost.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 6 2022 17:14 utc | 29

RB @26--

I wonder why all this infrastructure is not destroyed at least partially. Having to repair roads an[d] rail tracks and bridges would prevent UA from waging offensives.

Russia's announced goals are to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. The best way to accomplish that it to continue to allow the Ukrainians to throw themselves into the meat grinder. As we also see, demilitarizing NATO seems to be a secondary goal, which is progressing well. Allowing weapons and troops to be moved forward allow for their destruction, so keeping that infrastructure intact actually aids Russia in its goals. I hope that makes sense to you and to others unable to understand Russia's basic strategy.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 6 2022 17:15 utc | 30

Yesterday, you were advocating for Russia to deliberately target Ukrainian military hospitals, a clear & vile war crime. In fact, you were practically salivating at the idea. I'm curious to see what your bloodthirsty imagination comes up with today. This is a safe space so you can tell us your deepest fantasies of criminal savagery.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 17:04 utc | 27

Projecting much? He was wrong advocating attacking hospitals. Maybe he read about US Air Force bombing hospitals. You also supported shelling civilians in Donbas for 8 years. Or what you’d call salivating watching it happen.

Posted by: RB | Sep 6 2022 17:15 utc | 31

I don't see how the Ukrainian government can accomplish any of their long term goals with this conflict. The realistic outcome is a fight to a draw or a loss. The Russian government (correctly) sees this as a matter of state survival. How far will a government with nuclear weapons go to survive as an entity? How long will the west continue to prop up the Ukrainian government? The U.S. & NATO must find a face saving way out of this mess and let's hope someone soon figures out a workable plan. The likely alternative is an October 1962 moment and a mentally handicapped U.S president.

The only real "winners" might be the players making money on this conflict and the Zelensky group.

Posted by: Bismark | Sep 6 2022 17:21 utc | 32

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 6 2022 17:15 utc | 32

I get it. However, my understanding is that currently Ukraine is sending conscripts to the front lines. Is it still a good idea to kill them all?

Posted by: RB | Sep 6 2022 17:21 utc | 33

India were penciled in as the proxy for war against China. I believe what happened in Ukraine made them acutely aware of this. They have gone from fighting China over largely meaningless border skirmishes.To wargaming alongside them in Russia.

Posted by: Bob | Sep 6 2022 17:22 utc | 34

The IAEA personnel are in a tight spot. They must stay inside mission parameters to appear neutral. They do not have the expertise to monitor the origin of incoming artillery shells. They could have requested technical staff to monitor artillery shells but Ukraine would have blocked their mission. They barely made it to the NPP even with a narrow focus.

-------------------------
narrative on the Kherson offensive The Ukrainian narrative requires that Russian artillery strikes decrease. The Ukrainians (and TTG) are claiming that their bombing of bridges is interrupting Russian logistics. If this was true then Russia will have to increasingly limit how much artillery they use.

However, if there is no diminishment of Russian artillery then the Ukrainian version of events is false.

BTW MoA,the url for your last two .jpg files is broken

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Sep 6 2022 17:23 utc | 35

"As long as Russia permits NATO supplies into Ukraine this War will drag on. - sigmund"

At this point, I believe that Russia will remain in a defensive posture for as long as Ukraine is willing to fill the meat grinder and NATO is willing to bleet itself out. We will know the truth by seeing which side backs down first.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Sep 6 2022 17:28 utc | 36

Ukraine was prepped for partisan guerilla-style warfare. That's not happening, the only forces willing to engage in combat remain on Ukrainian controlled territory where they serve no purpose. To utilize them in any way, Ukraine is forced to throw these would-be partisans to the front, where they serve as target practice for Russian artillery. Demilitarization and denazification continues apace, with advances only once potential stay-behind forces are eliminated to a degree manageable to the FSB. The idea that this could somehow turn into a winning strategy for Ukraine is ludicrous.

Same with Western weapons shipments that are trickling in. At most they are plugging gaps to keep Ukrainian positions from collapsing; it's not like they are reaching some critical mass or allowing Ukraine to take the initiative in this fight. Russia is content to see NATO continue bleed itself dry of armaments and the situation is stable enough that long-range strikes with high-precision weapons on border crossings are no longer seen as cost effective.

Posted by: Skiffer | Sep 6 2022 17:30 utc | 37

@Bevin - It's just a hunch but I believe that Washington is in a lot of trouble. Afraid of something and firing in all directions. I am cynical enough to believe there is a lot of blackmail, bribery, etc. coming from the US State Dept.

Recall that in October 2019 this "REPO Market" crashed requiring a huge intervention of some sort. I don't really know what this "REPO Market" is but I've heard descriptions that is a major trunk line of the financial system deep in the basement and it clogged. Overnight.

Shortly after that happened we were met with Dystopia Pandemic. And now that that is unraveling here we are provoking a country half way around planet earth with the ability to turn hundreds of large cities to salt.

Something big is on the horizon. Perhaps the US suddenly declaring sovereign default. Unspeakable? Perhaps. It is bankrupt in every conceivable way and should not be ruled out.

Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 17:31 utc | 38

Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 6 2022 16:13 utc | 4

Pretty sure the professional military men of the Russian Federation know what they're doing.

Russia has vast capabilities of extra men and machines they could send to Ukraine at any time. The fact that they haven't chosen to do so, six months into a war they can't afford to lose, suggests Russia is content with how the war is going so far.

They're definitely not infallible, in fact anybody who has been in any army can tell you how much bullshit and stupidity exists in military life, but they've proved more than a match for the biggest army in Europe despite its NATO suppplied advantages. And their enemies are facing economic and political meltdown.

Looks like everything's coming up Russia.

Posted by: ZX | Sep 6 2022 17:33 utc | 39

China's CCTV YouTube channel has begun reporting RF MoD daily briefings captioned in English.

https://youtu.be/BneQwb1-l-M

Posted by: too scents | Sep 6 2022 17:34 utc | 40

The two important point to remember about offensives are "What objectives have been taken" and "At what cost" There is no better illustration of this point than the German offensives of 1918 which initially broke the stalemate

Two months later, in late May, after gaining tremendous amount of strategicaaly important ground, the offensives proceeded to .. break Germany. Why? Because the casualties were enormous. They always are when you go on the offensive against a peer military. And worse yet, Germany abandoned their super hard trench line which had been bleeding the Allies white for three years

The common understanding is that tanks broke the stalemate. Not so, it was Germany herself that did it .. by trying to win the war before the America was fully deployed in Europe

Posted by: Callmelennie | Sep 6 2022 17:34 utc | 41

sigmund @9

I believe RF is so confident that it actually wants the west to keep sending stuff. The west is running out of stuff to send and Ukraine/Nato is running out of bodies to mince.
Russia can only see one outcome: A total completion of it’s stated objectives for the SMO.

Posted by: lambo56 | Sep 6 2022 17:39 utc | 42

I think there is a natural tendency to look at the tempo of the SMO through the lense of the Russian Army tempo as it conducted operations in WWII. Stalin was driven by the fear that the West would wake up to the insanity of destroying itself and the Axis would sign a separate peace with US/UK and make common cause against the USSR. It was this fear that drove Stalin to push for as fast a tempo as possible regardless of casualties.

Putin has no such worries once having secured the fall of Mariupol and creating the land bridge to Crimea as well as quickly defeating the "shock and awe" sanctions regime. At this point the SMO is a giant training exercise with a primary goal of minimizing casualties letting artillery carry the load of reducing enemy forces and to a much lesser extent, air power.

I really don't think Puting or the Russian Command could have scripted things better.

Winter is coming.

Posted by: Oswald | Sep 6 2022 17:45 utc | 43

A week ago it was reported that the U.S. military had urged Ukraine to not launch several 'counteroffensives':

Maybe that claim was aimed as a distraction to the Russians who would have seen UAF's preparations for the Kharkov attack.

Its really hard to understand why the Ukraine is launching two operations with the main effort in both involving a river crossing.

It all makes perfect sense:

1) US/NATO are (a) insane, (b) idiots and (c) incompetent;
Attack on second front in Balakleya with insufficient resources is (a) insane, (b) idiotic and (c) incompetent decision = PERFECT FIT!

2) US/NATO are reactive, Russia has control. Through her intel she knew US was looking for a second front near Kharkov; Balakleya was already uninhabited due to the 2017 ammo dump explosion, so perfect location from Russian point of view. Therefore Russia chose Balakleya as the location for Ukraine's second front attack (well in advance obviously, since Ukraine has been preparing for some time). They made it look like an easy place to penetrate (Ukraine needs an easy target), to set the trap.

3) Favourite Russian tactic: give Ukraine what they think is a weak point, let them attack, withdraw, UAF funnels in resources, Russia closes the cauldron and starts demolishing the fish in the barrel. Rinse and repeat.

Posted by: BM | Sep 6 2022 17:46 utc | 44

bevin @31--

Thanks for your comment. On the previous thread, I provided Lavrov's presser with Thailand's Foreign Minister David Pramatvinai, Thailand being this year's APEC President. Despite being a fence-sitter, Thailand remains rather friendly with Russia, Lavrov remarking 2022 marks the 125th year of diplomatic relations. As I commented elsewhere, we need to ignore the West's whimpering and yowls and listen to what's happening in the Global South where Russia's relations are strong and growing stronger. To understand Russia's strategy, I highly suggest reading the following three Alastair Crooke columns in the order presented, "Russia & China’s ‘Financial War’ on the West", "A turn in the affairs of the world", and "Existential Disquiets: Financial War Against the West Begins to Bite". Essentially, Crooke is elaborating on how Russia and China will accomplish what they Declared back in February. There's more evidence provided by others of this Big Picture development, but IMO Crooke currently provides the best primer.

And all this is being done while the West bashes its collective heads on the wall Russia's erected in Ukraine and their own sanctions wall.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 6 2022 17:47 utc | 45

» The city is not really near to any significant supply route between Russia and Izium which was the target of previous offensives in the area (all failed). «
They are thinking big, hoping to advance along the major thoroughfares to cut off Izyum, about 40 clicks.

Posted by: Webej | Sep 6 2022 17:55 utc | 46

RB @35--

Thanks for your reply. Months ago I advocated Ukrainians surrender instead of committing suicide for people that don't give a damn about them, and my position hasn't changed as it still helps Russia attain its goals. But the decades-long brainwashing by CIA/MI6/OUN is providing the outcome we're viewing and reading about. Many still don't know that CIA/MI6 have been busy in Ukraine since 1945, which is why I repeat that so often.

And I'll continue to write that realistically NATO has lost and cannot in any manner defeat Russia or China.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 6 2022 18:02 utc | 47

the stunning miscalculation of the whizz kids in Washington in their assumption that India would join in the campaign against Russia and China

The shift of India away from UK/US is A Big Deal that isn’t even on the radar for most?!

There were visible signs of the shift during early covid when India was all like “yeah, actually, I’m sure your new drugs are great but we are going to use all the existing antivirals etc” tho I would assume it is a lot longer in the making.

Much of the current insanity is simply SSDD but accelerated by freak-outs driven by the “sudden” loss of ~1 billion Chinese slaves. India is no less significant in terms of lost offshore slavery.

Posted by: Rae | Sep 6 2022 18:04 utc | 48

Recall that in October 2019 this "REPO Market" crashed requiring a huge intervention of some sort. I don't really know what this "REPO Market" is but I've heard descriptions that is a major trunk line of the financial system deep in the basement and it clogged. Overnight.

Shortly after that happened we were met with Dystopia Pandemic. And now that that is unraveling here we are provoking a country half way around planet earth with the ability to turn hundreds of large cities to salt.

Something big is on the horizon. Perhaps the US suddenly declaring sovereign default. Unspeakable? Perhaps. It is bankrupt in every conceivable way and should not be ruled out.

Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 17:31 utc | 40

Correct, while this blog tends to focus on major world events, there are the bigger global Financial issues hovering above it all.

There was a great interview published today that traces the coordinated oversized government money printing exercise during Covid-19 as cover story needed to resolve the Repo crisis. Which naturally just kicked the global debt Ponzi can down the road... again.

https://expose-news.com/2022/09/06/a-global-financial-collapse-is-a-certainty/

I suggest downloading the PDF version and skimming to save time.

It is rational to conclude that the hardships caused by Covid-19 and this easily avoidable war are to condition the population to accept whatever "Reset" the tech-fin fascists are able to cook up to preserve their apex predator status.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 6 2022 18:05 utc | 49

Since when did the IAEA speak for the US? That comment isnot worth the paper its written on.

Posted by: Kaiama | Sep 6 2022 18:06 utc | 50

I think what Kremlin is doing right is top notch tactics given their current forces.
Think about it, war is deception, and Kremlin knows well how to play maskirovka.
They led AFU regulars to believe that they kicked orc scum out of Kiev region, and they have enough strength to kick them out of Kherson, Donbass, and possible Crimea, any day now.
And then these untrained kids are running straight into well calibrated cannons, a slaughter-house.

Posted by: Jeff Williams | Sep 6 2022 18:07 utc | 51

Looks like Wagner have finally tamed Kodema.

Posted by: WTFUD | Sep 6 2022 18:07 utc | 52

@ BM 46

The old bait & hook.

Who of sound mind keeps running into a beartrap. Best they stay in their trenches and live another few weeks.

Posted by: WTFUD | Sep 6 2022 18:15 utc | 53

RF is so confident that it actually wants the west to keep sending stuff. The west is running out of stuff to send and Ukraine/Nato is running out of bodies to mince.

i'm leaning in this direction. Ukraine is an ideal battlefield to accomplish this partly because of the close proximity.

I do not understand why the Ukrainian military decided to attack in Balakleya.

i was curious about that myself, for what it's worth, i read earlier this morning there was some sort of deadline coming up in sept 8. hence opening the new front. there's a meeting in Rammstein (NATO?)to evaluate the progress of the war. casualties aside, Ukraine needs to show it's regained some territory. perhaps Balakleya figures into this, both in terms of opening another front(which i believe was planned w/western powers, msm played along) and perhaps the ease in which AFU thought it could be accomplished. just off the top of my head, as i mostly just try follow what's going on there.

Posted by: annie | Sep 6 2022 18:15 utc | 54

Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 6 2022 16:13 utc | 3

To see Europe to crumble in winter would be gold, but what if it doesn't happen?

From AG Metal Miner oilprice.com, Sep 02, 2022, 2:00 PM CDT

Stainless Steel Mills Shut Down Across Europe

Stainless Steel Mills Shut Down Across Europe
What would happen if the stainless steel market suddenly lost millions of tons of production? We won’t have to wait long to find out the answer because it’s already happening. As August ended, more and more reports came in detailing European stainless steel producers having to scale back or shut down production altogether.

Of course, Europe faces a catastrophic energy crisis. While many economists remain focused on the coming winter, Putin’s retaliatory gas cutoff has done plenty of damage already. So far, around three million tons of Europe’s stainless steel capacity is at risk. With energy costs surging, many plants simply can’t afford to “keep the lights on,” so to speak.

Earlier in August, the Belgian Aperam Mill shut down its mill in Genk. Soon after, they reduced production at their Chatelet Mill. More recently, Spanish company Acrinox announced it would cut production and place around 85% of its employees on short-time work. Obviously, all eyes are now on other major European producers, many of whom have just as much incentive to cut and run.

What the perspective for the German heavy industry?

Posted by: António Ferrão | Sep 6 2022 18:16 utc | 55

Zelenskyy and the UKRoNazi are desperate to keep the Aid Funding continuing as long as possible.

They are going to do whatever it takes to prevent Kharkov, Nikolayev, and Odessa from RUS+Residents' Control and following Referendums.

No doubt that the Majority of Russia-Speaking/Russian-Ethnic Regions will vote to join "NovoRussia" than live under Zelenskyy+UKRoNazi.

Zelenskyy may eventually shift his HQ to POL and Coordinate the "Insurgency/Resistance".

This may the Last CounterOffensive to prevent the liberation of "NovoRussia"

Posted by: IronForge | Sep 6 2022 18:20 utc | 56

There will be no peace as long as the "collective west" support with money and are shipping weapons to the Zelensky Kiev regime.
Putin: "lift sanctions and you'll get nat gas"...

Posted by: Hannibal | Sep 6 2022 18:24 utc | 57

It also led to Switzerland, which had remained neutral since Bonaparte's day and indeed traded on its neutrality, to pile on against Russia.
Posted by: bevin | Sep 6 2022 17:14 utc | 31

At the time, the Swiss press (NZZ) made a bizarre attempt to convince the Swiss that neutrality was overrated.
IIRC, Swiss federal government said taking sides in the Ukraine conflict was done under US pressure.
Perhaps someone from CH can comment?

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 6 2022 18:24 utc | 58

My inside sources tell me that if this second offensive fails, then NATO will escalate big time. My sources tell me that Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin will challenge Putin to a twerking contest. Winner take all. Inside Kremlin sources claim that Putin is ready to "bust a move" any place and time.

Posted by: Erelis | Sep 6 2022 18:28 utc | 59

Some Aluminium Capacity in Europe May Be Gone Forever amid Ongoing Energy Crisis

In the aluminium industry, closing a smelter is a painful decision. Because once the power goes out and the production facility cools to room temperature, it will take months and tens of millions of dollars to restore.

However, with the cut-off of Gazprom supply and the intensifying energy crisis, the European aluminium industry seems to be facing an unprecedented "crisis of survival".

Norsk Hydro, one of the world's largest aluminium companies, is seeing its large plant in Slovakia face a potential shutdown. Not only that, but aluminium production in Europe has fallen to its lowest level since the 1970s.

In fact, the reason can be seen in aluminium's nickname - condensed electricity. The metal is used in almost everything from car frames and soda cans to ballistic missiles, but its production requires enormous amounts of energy. Data show that it takes about 15 megawatt-hours of electricity to produce one tonne of aluminium, enough to power five German households for a year.

SMM News Sep 5, 2022 07:57CST

Posted by: António Ferrão | Sep 6 2022 18:31 utc | 60

I think the slow tempo of the Russian advance the last month or two, after they freed Severodonetsk and Lyschiansk, has to do with the low amount of casualties they were incurrung. You want to be in a place where the ratio of losses is maximal for you. That will cost you the least. I also think the calculated in the same way before they captured those two cities in the spring.

I further think that the Ukraine offensive now is a way to change the underlying facts and disturb this calculation.

Posted by: alek_a | Sep 6 2022 18:32 utc | 61

Some (Western media) German reporters have been along with the IAEA chaps and have been shown around the NPP. Needless to say, they deny any wrongdoing by the Ukrainians, belittle any information handed to them by the guides at the plant as some sort of propaganda stunt by the Russians, e.g. showing the impact wholes of the missiles and grenades and claim that one cannot determine where the fire came from.

In turn, straight after that, they went to the Ukrainian side near the NPP and spoke to the deposed / chased away / fled (why, you wonder) former director of the NPP, who whipped up some horror stories about vanished engineers (by the score), torture chambers below the NPP and the like, while workers are closely watched and threatened. The htared for the Russians just oozed out of that guy and filtered straight into the reporters.

3.40 mins in (German) ... https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/heute-in-europa/heute---in-europa-vom-6-september-2022-100.html

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Sep 6 2022 18:34 utc | 62

What the perspective for the German heavy industry?

Posted by: António Ferrão | Sep 6 2022 18:16 utc | 57

I am waiting for the first enterpreneur that will find a way to economically gassify cow farts.

(I am just half kidding)

Posted by: alek_a | Sep 6 2022 18:35 utc | 63

Collective West won't allow UA to giv up but what about China...will they allow Russia to lose?

Posted by: FG | Sep 6 2022 18:39 utc | 64

@Passerby | Sep 6 2022 18:24 utc | 60

Swiss neutrality is enshrined in our constitution. Our politicians have to at least to pretend to demur to the law.

100 thousand signatures were collected to force a referendum on the purchase of the f-35 under our much lauded direct democracy. An excuse was found to subvert this referendum.

Also CH has one of the largest "NATO" contingents in Kosovo, while Switzerland is not in NATO.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 6 2022 18:41 utc | 65

The more Ukrainians are ground down, the more land there can be seized by Western oligarchs and the more global population is reduced. These are the two grand global strategic aims of said oligarchs: (1) reduce global populations to (2) open global lands for seizure.

Mankind bled to remove monarchy as a form of government. Only one significant one remains: Great Britain. Now mankind is bleeding to remove oligarchs as a form of government. Russia, so far, has the lead in that movement.

You know you are in trouble when have or tolerate titles of nobility patent or latent. Eliminate those, the bleeding is all about that.

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Sep 6 2022 18:43 utc | 66

@Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 17:31 utc | 40

The repo market is how banks fund themselves with other banks, it's short-term collateralized lending; overnight or for a few days. The collateral are bonds held in the bank's portfolio, which get a risk-adjusted "haircut" before funds are loaned against them. When banks start to worry about other banks being liquid/solvent the haircut get bigger and bigger (you can borrow less against a given bond) and the interest rates get higher, until at some point banks will refuse to lend to some banks, and then perhaps all other banks given how tightly coupled all the banks are to each other through repo, derivatives, fx, money markets etc.

At the point of crisis (e.g. Bear Sterns weekend or the 2019 repo crisis) the Fed steps in as the "lender if last resort" to make sure that the inter-bank lending system does not grind to a halt. The bigger problem becomes when banks are insolvent (asset - liabilities less than zero) rather than insolvent (current payment liabilities cannot be met as not enough assets can be turned into cash quickly enough). This happened in 2008, leading to the need to recapitalize banks, AIG etc. Same thing happening in 2019, the "COVID stimulus" covered up the stealth recapitalization.

As the Fed continues to raise interest rates the price of bonds on bank portfolios falls, as well as any equity assets, load assets etc. The more illiquid and leveraged an asset the more the price may fall (e.g. MBS, Assert Backed Securities, Leveraged Loans). At the same time there is a huge liquidity/solvency crisis being caused by the spiralling energy prices in Europe which is spreading across energy companies, banks, manufacturing companies and individuals. Rising inflation is also leading to rising interest rates in Europe, with some banks such as Deutsche Bank massively leveraged.

Most important rate to watch is the 5/10-year US Treasury Interest Rate. as it drives mortgage rates and is in the middle of the duration of bond portfolios - rising interest rates mean falling bond prices. Right now the US 10-year rate looks like it could break through the previous 3.5% high set in June which should cause a big flush down in asset prices. The dollar has also broken to new highs, which reduces US company's foreign profits stated in US$s, and raises borrowing costs (in addition to rising interest rates) for many nations with large US$ borrowings - spreading the financial problem throughout Latin America etc.

US 10-year Treasury Note

With inflation high and still rising, and with interest rates generally will below the rate of inflation, the option of dumping interest rates to zero and printing money to save the financial system from a hard crash is now severely limited - unless governments see very high or even hyper inflation as preferable. That route would destroy the financiers.

We would be in a tough spot just with the prior inflation and Fed tightening in an environment of such massive debt levels, but the self-harming Russia sanctions have poured gasoline on the fire. Biden's short-term fiscal stimulus to try to stall the Republican wave, and the idiocy of Europe spending trillions to subsidize energy companies (and Russia) instead of dropping the sanctions, will only add to the witches brew.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 6 2022 18:53 utc | 67

@posted by: Roger | Sep 6 2022 18:53 utc | 69

"when banks are insolvent (asset - liabilities less than zero) rather than insolvent (current payment liabilities cannot be met as not enough assets can be turned into cash quickly enough)"

the second "insolvent" should be "illiquid"

Posted by: Roger | Sep 6 2022 18:55 utc | 68

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 6 2022 17:15 utc | 32

Well said!

Didn't Sun Tsu say "Don't interrupt your enemy while they're serving themselves up on a platter, right on your doorstep"? (or words to that effect)

And if he didn't, is it too late for an addendum?

Posted by: xLemming | Sep 6 2022 19:00 utc | 69

"Maybe the CIA News Network (CNN) only pretended that the US military was advising against overambitious offensives by the Ukropians to disguise some overambitious offensives!"

Perhaps, but it was good advice nonetheless. One would think the FUD and fairy tales squad would take whatever out they could to distance the US from these disastrous offensives. Blame BoJo the Clown or the crackhead comedian in "Kyyiy", but don't take credit for stupidity!

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 6 2022 19:00 utc | 70

As a huge fan of Military Summary Channel
"Hello my dear friends!"

Dima mentioned something about a Sept. 8 meeting with Ukraine and their weapons vendor. Ukraine has to show military progress.

Not sure who that vendor is. Does anyone know more specifics? Also, the timing of the Kherson offensive was to bully locals into not voting on the oblast joining the RF set to take place on Sept. 11.

Posted by: Anunnaki | Sep 6 2022 19:00 utc | 71

Dima mentioned something about a Sept. 8 meeting with Ukraine and their weapons vendor. Ukraine has to show military progress.

Posted by: Anunnaki | Sep 6 2022 19:00 utc | 73

The main progress they have to show is a clobber list of how many X, Y and Z they lost which needs to be replaced. Then the suppliers can go back to their funders (aka US Congress) for more loot with which to pay for new contracts.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 6 2022 19:03 utc | 72

Chunga@24....baited traps. If Ukie advance was slowed, their Army would take years to demilitarize. Once they cross any bridge and it falls behind them...they are FUBARED, the Russians even left them a pontoon bridge, an open trap, blind man on a horse could see it....Ukies, not so much.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 6 2022 19:03 utc | 73

Is this the Battle of the Bulge without the bulge (perhaps a bulgette?) combined with the Charge of The Light Brigade? The logical result is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian reserve forces and much of the up to date equipment that they has left. The vast majority of Ukraine's remaining artillery are still the Russian kind that are running down all the post-Soviet stocks of the required ammunition across Europe. If the reports are correct it seems Zelensky is desperate enough to sell Ukraine's holdings of natural gas meant to tide the population over the winter for more weapons.

The Russians seem to have left enough transport infrastructure working for the Ukrainians to keep moving men and material into the meat-grinder, and have shown the patience necessary to make this strategy work. The combination of the steppes of central Ukraine and winter-hardened ground are perfect for a winter tank campaign once the Ukrainian front line fortifications and reserves have been destroyed. By then Europe will be in a deep depression and the US not much better, no one will want to hear about helping out the Ukies by then.

The Battle of the Bulge was the end of any meaningful German counter-attack, we may be seeing the same with the Ukraine. Following the Battle of the Bulge the Western Allies marched into Germany against very weak defensive responses.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 6 2022 19:08 utc | 74

Posted by: too scents | Sep 6 2022 18:41 utc | 67

"100 thousand signatures were collected to force a referendum on the purchase of the f-35 under our much lauded direct democracy. An excuse was found to subvert this referendum."


What excuse? I haven't heard it. As far as I know, the referendum came through on August 22th.
Source: https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/vi/vis517.html

Posted by: NoName | Sep 6 2022 19:10 utc | 75

I think that Balaklyia was chosen as it is North of the Siverski Donets river and all those impassable muddy flats that accompany it. The railway line comes from Kharkiv from the west (as does a road) which should allow easier access for Ukie reinforcements. Without having to cross the biggest river. There are smaller rivers, lots of them, in the area but the town does represent some sort of geographical possibilities, on the flat ground between it and the Oskil River (North-South).

Webej | Sep 6 2022 17:55 utc | 48
Mentions Izium at 40 km. A West-East advance would put an attacking force North of Izium.
The alternative viwepoint, Russian, is that the Oksil River may hamper their supply routes - but as I have no idea what reserves/forces they have in the area - this is to be watched carefully.

The quantity of Bridges that haven't yet been blown up might be quite small!

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 6 2022 19:21 utc | 76

“I wouldn't read too much into the CNN piece claiming that US/Ukraine wargaming decided that a single offensive direction was best. That's exactly the sort of story that one would plant in the media using anonymous sources to create a false impression and confuse the enemy. -Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 16:42 utc | 17
There must be at least a dozen bewildered Russian generals wandering the Kremlin halls at this very moment kicking themselves for watching CNN too closely.

Posted by: DocHollywood | Sep 6 2022 19:21 utc | 77

What excuse?
@NoName | Sep 6 2022 19:10 utc | 77

---

Concluding the purchase contract before a referendum can be decided.

https://stop-f-35.ch/2022/08/24/bundesrat-will-volksabstimmung-zum-f-35-umgehen%ef%bf%bc/

Posted by: too scents | Sep 6 2022 19:21 utc | 78

Morale looks high in the offensive that would never happen / is destined to fail / already failed according to b. Impossible not to smile watching this:

https://twitter.com/praisethesteph/status/1567224604510273538

Photo evidence indicates that Novovoznesensk (E of Arkanhel's'ke) is liberated:

https://twitter.com/aronets/status/1567204658094956544

Spirne reportedly liberated, along with Staryi Karavan - that one is interesting because it's another town ACROSS the river NW of Slovyansk, like Ozerne. Very unexpected places to see a Ukrainian presence and I can't imagine those will be easy to hold - wonder what the plan is.

Pro-RU accounts also claiming they control Kodema after another round of Wagner-led assaults, although videos don't yet show them in the town center.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 19:23 utc | 79

karlof1@47
Thanks for the tip. It may not show but I never miss a Crooke column if I can help it. He is one of the SC stars.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 6 2022 19:25 utc | 80

John visited his coke buddy not long before these last lots of Ukrainians where sent to the slaughter. On the economic side, nothing bet bad news cumming out of the UK now. Not long before UK states to collapse. Bojo and no doubt his backers are are desperate for a win, or at least to be seen as having a win.
Zelensky no doubt sees the money steams starting to dry up as well. Then there is some sort of donors meeting on the 8th.

These attacks I think are more a last desperate throw of the dice by the British rather than the Americans. Ukraine units where losing up to 60% while defending dug in positions in as little as three days. Out of trenches and fortifications, with their numbers concentrated, losses will be very high. Far higher I think than the Russian MoD numbers.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 6 2022 19:28 utc | 81

Posted by: too scents | Sep 6 2022 19:21 utc | 80


Thank you! Now this is going to be interesting... whether they follow through....

Posted by: NoName | Sep 6 2022 19:30 utc | 82

Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 17:04 utc | 27

I've never said the MSM is completely reliable...MSM is too quick/willing to print stories based on anonymous sources...
...deliberately target Ukrainian military hospitals...

This reminds me on the bombardment of the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz. Not even a military one. In regard to the "not completely reliable" media, it teaches another fine (and different) lesson: Its "unreliability" did not stem from "anonymous" sources, but from the US military which gave four different versions in four days.

Posted by: OttoE | Sep 6 2022 19:33 utc | 83

I wonder how long trollwoda's pet Nazis' captagon supply will hold out?

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 6 2022 19:34 utc | 84

Anunnaki | Sep 6 2022 19:00 utc | 73

I believe that is a meeting of donor countries, not a weapons vendor as such.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 6 2022 19:36 utc | 85

Reply to 25 and others

There is a cruel reality here. Russia cannot trust anything from the West. Minsk II showed that as well as the sanctions that followed. There is no honor, there are no rules. International law is an oxymoron.

There is therefore only one way to securely end this conflict: kill, cause the exodus of or incapacitate enough able bodied Ukr. males between 18 - 64 to cripple the nation indefinitely. Make them incapable of raising an army, regardless of who pays for it. This sad reality may make the actions of Russian forces seem odd. Their narcissistic leadership is playing into Russia's hands.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 6 2022 19:37 utc | 86

karlof1 | Sep 6 2022 18:02 utc | 49

Just an addendum...

"Many still don't know that CIA/MI6 have been busy in Ukraine since 1945,..."

Yes, I believe

CIA/MI6 have been busy in Ukraine since 1945 - OSS actually (Office of Strategic Services formed as agency of US JCS - Joint Chiefs of Staff - to coordinate US espionage); since Truman's National Security Act wasn't signed until September 1947, and that then gave birth to the CIA as a continuation of the OSS. MI6 (British Espionage) had been around since 1909 and functioning covertly all over the world, including what has became known as The Ukraine since then.

Posted by: DoesItReallyMatter | Sep 6 2022 19:37 utc | 87

@William Gruff #86, in times like this it helps to have a daily affirmation, "trust the Clobber List, Kyiv was just a feint, slow is best"... and now I think we can add "forward is good but backward is better" and soon "Russia never wanted Kherson or Izyum anyway".

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 19:48 utc | 88

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 6 2022 19:34 utc | 86

It depends on the duration of the contract so he can last for a quite long period of time.Death by starvation is the best remedy.

Posted by: LuBa | Sep 6 2022 19:56 utc | 89

"Our first UA refuseniks from the Kherson front. Apparently don't want to be sent in to a kamikaze wave."

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1567180200437334016

Ukrainian sources have reported that mass desertions have begun from the AFU formations sent to the Kherson front. And we are talking not only about Volkssturm and mobilized fighters, but also fighters trained abroad.

There is no doubt that the order of the Bankova to "dry up the agenda of the "battle for Kherson" by blocking the information on the course of military operations leads to the fact that rumors about the monstrous losses of the Nazis are rapidly spreading. Incidentally, this is also facilitated by the fact that all medical institutions not only in Mykolaiv, but also in Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhya are full of wounded, and doctors and nurses are being mobilized as far away as Central Ukraine.

The fighters are sure they are being driven to slaughter and are trying not to reach them. The wider the news of the real situation spreads, the more deserters there will be.

@WarDonbass

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/7245

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 6 2022 19:57 utc | 90

@Roger. Thanks for the explanation of REPO. I'm not an expert on finance, or much of anything, but I am going to guess that reserve currency and petro-dollar are very important in keeping this scheme afloat. From what I can gather, due to all the strings attached to the dollar, there is a premium on using currencies other than the dollar. It is in a countries best interest to abandon it and to me, the US State Dept. destroying Minsk II will be a watershed moment.

The Russians ere enforcing the terms of Minsk II militarily, and then some, and there is *nothing* the US can do about that. Other countries are watching this and will likely be less afraid of Uncle Sam going forward. Incidentally, concerning Minsk II, I have yet to encounter one single American who has the slightest idea what it is. (the nucleus of the entire situation)

Whoever takes on Goliath and knocks him cold will be very popular on the world stage. /imo

Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 19:59 utc | 91

Lvrov doing a presser with the Thai foreign minister, appointee of the 10 year military dictatorship that butchered their own citizens in the street when they asked for the vote, not once, but twice; the same crew that appointed military apparatchiks to every formerly elected office in the country from federal down to local, that cancelled democracy permanently in service to "the king" who personally oversaw brutal mass murder of democracy activists in 1976, who imprisons his former wife in a monetary in Chiang Mai after having her uncle murdered, the monarchy that according to Alfred McCoy is one of the biggest drug dealers in the world gives Lvrov what kind of look exactly?

Posted by: Wester | Sep 6 2022 20:01 utc | 92

@ Roger | Sep 6 2022 18:53 utc | 69

thanks roger... will be interesting to see if it breaks 3.5

@ Anunnaki | Sep 6 2022 19:00 utc | 73

i heard via bbc, the vote was being postponed...

Posted by: james | Sep 6 2022 20:02 utc | 93

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 19:48 utc | 90

november 1967 "we can see the light at the end of the tunnel"--General Westmoreland, prophesying the ultimate US victory in the Vietnam War, November 1967

"We're giving them a real lesson today. Heavy doesn't accurately describe the level of casualties we have inflicted."--Baghdad Bob March 2003

"Morale looks high in the offensive that would never happen / is destined to fail / already failed according to b. Impossible not to smile watching this:"
--Yenwoda, September 6, 2022

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 6 2022 20:02 utc | 94

Meanwhile, the move away from Western currencies is continuing. At a meeting between Gazprom and CNPC, it was decided that "settlements for Russian gas supplies to China will now be made in the national currencies of the two countries, i.e. the ruble and the yuan".

https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2022/september/article556286/

Posted by: Lathe biosas | Sep 6 2022 20:04 utc | 95

Posted by: chunga | Sep 6 2022 16:57 utc | 24:

@Pedoba It could be that my pollyanna is showing in the belief that humans can/might still manage to know right from wrong.

Yeah, most of humans can still manage to know right from wrong, even most of those who live in the western spheres. But recent events have taught us about those in the west who don't. Not that they don't know rights from wrongs. It's just that they have made the choice of siding with the wrongs. That the western MSM having made that choice is particularly troublesome, because that takes away an important checks-and-balances media in the domain that is ostensibly going to hell.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 6 2022 20:06 utc | 96

The Ukrainian troops that unimperator @92 mentions doing the mass desertions were just skipped over when the captagon was handed out. I'm sure with the right pharmaceuticals they would happily dive into the meat grinder head first. That would certainly please the Nazi fanbois posting from mamma's basement.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 6 2022 20:11 utc | 97

This is what all those fools are dying for. Ukraine must show some sort of success to keep the gravy train running. Protests have already started in Europe. Desperate times for green tee shirt man.

https://thetimeshub.in/the-united-states-will-hold-a-meeting-of-donors-of-military-assistance-to-ukraine-on-september-8-in-germany/34326/
Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin announced the convening of another meeting of countries that send military aid to Ukraine. It will take place on September 8 at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. This will be reported on the Pentagon website.

"Secretary Austin once again invited defense ministers and senior military representatives from around the world to discuss the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the various security issues that allies face and partners USA", — said in the message.

https://www.reuters.com/world/shelling-ukrainian-nuclear-plant-highlights-danger-ahead-un-report-2022-09-06/
KYIV/VIENNA, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Ukrainian officials said they would announce on Tuesday a major new military success in the east of the country, an unexpected advance just a week after Kyiv declared a big new counter-offensive hundreds of kilometres away in the south.

"Tonight there is going to be great news from President Zelenskiy on (the) counteroffensive operation in Kharkiv region," Zelenskiy advisor Serhiy Leshchenko said on Twitter, referring to the northeastern province around Ukraine's second biggest city.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 6 2022 20:17 utc | 98

The two important point to remember about offensives are "What taken" .. by trying to win the war before the America was fully deployed in Europe

Posted by: Callmelennie | Sep 6 2022 17:34 utc | 43

Interesting, minus one key important fact.

History tells us about the newly arrived USSA troops on the western front in late 1917. Brought with them a deadly highly contagious virus. One which was mistakenly and/or deliberately labeled "Spanish Influenza".

Even way back then Amerika was directly/indirectly involved in mass "Germ Warfare".

Spain, in WW1. Was a neutral country and non-belligerent. Had zero press censorship.

Basically, decimated all the belligerent armies to the core.

As they say in war. The first casualty is the truth.

Truth is stranger than fiction.

Posted by: Big Deal Motors On | Sep 6 2022 20:18 utc | 99

I wonder how long trollwoda's pet Nazis' captagon supply will hold out?

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 6 2022 19:34 utc | 86

He likely works a 10 hour shift with this as background music...

https://youtu.be/TJL4Y3aGPuA

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 6 2022 20:20 utc | 100

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