Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 30, 2022

Ukraine - Four Oblasts Join Russia

In 1922 Vladimir Il'ich Lenin, head of the revolutionary Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, decided that several regions which for centuries had been Russian and under Russian rule were to be put, for reasons unknown, under the administration of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine. In 1954 a similar decision was taken with regards to autonomous republic of Crimea.


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The sudden disintegration of the Union in 1991 led to unruly phases in the newly created republics. Ethnic Russian people suddenly found themselves in territory that was no longer ruled by Moscow. In several of the new countries ethnic non-Russian majorities started to suppress the Russian minorities. Today's Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are to various degrees prime examples for this.

Before 1991 the Ukraine had never existed as a state or independent entity. The early Cossack tribes in the yellow part and green parts of the map had asked for Russian protection against attacks from Poland, Lithuania and other neighbors. In the new Ukraine ethnic Russians were nearly half of the population and the parties they supported managed to win several countrywide elections. Big voting differences were visible along regional/ethnic lines. The country had strong economic relations with Russia. Its industry depended on Russian gas while nearly all its machine and steel exports went to Russia.

The U.S. did not like that. It wanted to control rule the Ukraine to be able to put pressure on Russia. It twice, in 2004 and in 2014, organized 'color revolutions' to overthrow elected Ukrainian governments which, for mostly economic reasons, tended to favor relations with Russia.

The 2014 color revolution was exceptionally brutal. The U.S. had organized extreme right wing groups to take the lead in violent protests. (The same groups were in the early 1940s allied with German Nazis  and, between 1948 and 1952, were waging a CIA led guerrilla war against the Soviet Union.) The street fighting ended with an unconstitutional change of the government of Ukraine.

The first law that the new coup government implemented was a rejection of Russian as one of Ukraine's state languages. For some 50% of Ukrainians Russian is their daily language. Ukrainian itself is a Russian dialect. Nearly 100% of Ukrainians understand Russian.

The ethnic Russian people in Ukraine feared being canceled. Crimea, which in 1991 had voted for and declared its independence before the Ukraine did so, voted, under Russian protection, to join Russia. Moscow accepted the move.

People in other former Russian parts of Ukraine protested and a some in the east took up arms. They twice defeated the Ukrainian army and volunteer formations sent against them. The Minsk I and II agreements that followed required Ukraine to give those Donbas oblasts significant autonomy. The United Nations Security Council acknowledged and supported the agreements. But any attempts to implement them were sabotaged by the U.S. via the armed right wing movements that had control over the government in Kiev.

For eight long years the people in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics defended their borders against constant  Ukrainian attempts to solve the conflict by violence. While the people in those republics had voted for the independence of their republics, and to become a part of Russia, the Kremlin did not want to accept that. It wanted that those republics stay within Ukraine and insisted on the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

In 2015 the U.S. and NATO started to build a new Ukrainian army. They succeeded. By 2021 it was larger than most armies of NATO countries. Plans were made to invade the Donbas republics. In 2021 Russia became aware that a first attempt was soon to be made. It launched large maneuvers of its own military near its western border to deter such attempts. The situation settled down.

Any attempt of the Ukraine to overwhelm the Donbas, and the likely progroms that were to follow, would have created a situation in which the Russian government would be pressed very hard by its own people to intervene. Russians see the inhabitants of those areas as part of their own people.

When the Kremlin learned of new plans to attack the Donbas republics in 2022 it took a stand. It send quasi ultimatums to the U.S. and NATO and requested security agreements that would deny NATO membership to Ukraine. The ultimatums were rejected. The U.S. wanted war in Ukraine to a. 'weaken' Russia and to b. get stronger control over its European 'allies' and economic competitors.

On February 17 the Ukrainian army launched artillery preparations for an all out attack on the Donbas republics. Over the next days the shelling increased from some 40 artillery explosions per day to over 2,000 per day. Russia had to act. On February 22 it recognized the independence of the Donbas republics and signed defense agreements with them. On February 24 it send its troops to defeat the Ukrainian army and to make any future attacks on the Donbas impossible.

Since then Russia and its allied local forces have gained control of all of Luhank, 60% of Donetsk and most of the southern oblasts Kherson and Zaparozhia. But Russia also learned that the very limited forces it had sent were unable to fulfill its aim of disarming Ukraine. To call up and use reservist required a legal change. Local officials in the Russian controlled oblasts organized referenda for the people to decide if they want their become independent of Ukraine to then join Russia. Large majorities voted for the proposals.

Michael Tracey @mtracey - 11:13 UTC · Sep 30, 2022

Ukraine resident originally from Luhansk tells the BBC, "to be honest, for me, it seems that more than half of the population" in his hometown support annexation by Russia
Embedded video

Today the President of the Russian Federation signed agreements with the republics for them to become part of Russia.

Any attempt to attack them is now an attack on Russia. They are under full protection of the Russian Federation, its military and those of its allies.

For Ukraine to continue the war will mean the assured defeat of its army and further dismemberment as more regions will join Russia and Poland, Hungary and Romania will try to take the regions of Ukraine they previously controlled.

'Western' propaganda calls the votes for to join Russia  a 'sham' and the process an 'annexation'. But the votes were very real. The very high results for joining Russia are understandable Ukraine rejected these people and as those who oppose Russia have long left those regions.

The UN Charter acknowledges a right to self determination. The U.S. is itself (ab)using that right whenever it is in favor of its political aims:

In his address to the UN, Biden insisted that, even had the vote not been fixed and a sham, it would never be recognized because it is “an extremely significant violation of the UN charter.” The fluidity of that claim, depending on US foreign policy interests, is exposed by Biden’s near simultaneous insistence three days earlier that “Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence. ... that’s their decision.” It doesn’t violate the UN charter if it works against China; it violates the UN charter if it works for Russia. Furthermore, the US officially recognizes other annexations, most recently the Moroccan annexation of Western Sahara.

But the hypocrisy that most makes Russia boil is Kosovo. In 2008, when Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia without even the pretense of holding a referendum, the US recognized the declaration against repeated UN resolutions upholding the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia. Sakwa also points out that the US endorsed “the infamous advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice ... that Kosovo’s declaration of independence ‘did not violate general international law’.”

AP reports on today's ceremony:

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed treaties Friday to annex parts of Ukraine in defiance of international law, vowing to protect the newly incorporated regions by “all available means” in another escalation of his seven-month invasion of the country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded by saying his country is submitting an “accelerated” application to join the NATO military alliance.

Putin urged Ukraine to sit down for peace talks but immediately insisted he won’t discuss handing back occupied regions — keeping him on a collision course with the Ukrainian government and its Western backers that have rejected his land-grab.

In a Kremlin ceremony at the ornate St. George’s Hall to herald the annexation of the occupied parts of Ukraine, Putin accused the West of fueling the hostilities as part of what he said is a plan to turn Russia into a “colony” and a “crowds of slaves.” The hardening of his position, in the conflict that that has killed and wounded tens of thousands of people, further cranked up tensions, already at levels unseen since the Cold War.
...
The Kremlin ceremony came three days after the completion in occupied regions of Moscow-orchestrated “referendums” on joining Russia that were dismissed by Kyiv and the West as a bare-faced land grab held at gunpoint and based on lies.

But Putin, in a fiery speech at the ceremony, insisted that Ukraine must treat the Kremlin-managed votes “with respect.”

After the signing ceremony of treaties to join Russia, Moscow-installed leaders of the occupied regions gathered around Putin and they all linked hands, before then joining chants of “Russia! Russia!” with the audience.

Putin also railed at the West, cutting an angry figure as he accused the United States and its allies of seeking to destroy Russia. He said the West acted “as a parasite” and used its financial and technological strength “to rob the entire world.”

He portrayed Russia as being on a historical mission to reclaim its post-Soviet great power status and counter Western domination that he said is collapsing.

“History has called us to a battlefield to fight for our people, for the grand historic Russia, for future generations,” he said.

I have not yet heard of new Russian plans for the war. But I expect that Russia's reaction to Ukrainian attacks, as well as to NATO support for them, will soon become way more severe. Previously Putin had said about the war "we haven't even started yet."

I advice everyone to take that seriously.

Posted by b on September 30, 2022 at 15:36 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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I congratulate France, which today has become the second largest European country.

Posted by: bily | Sep 30 2022 15:44 utc | 1

Ukraine should have been disbanded in 1991 withe the Eastern going to Russia and the Western parts going to Poland,Romania,Hungary etc

Posted by: Ranko | Sep 30 2022 15:49 utc | 2

I believe that Lenin attached what is now eastern Ukraine to the Ukraine because that was the more industrialized part and the workers who were sympathetic in the Bolsheviks so that they would be able to fully sway the votes in favour of the Bolsheviks. At the time I guess it didn't matter too much since everything was governed under Moscow as a single country but now that error is finally being rectified.

Posted by: leaf | Sep 30 2022 15:50 utc | 3

The world will never go back to how it was. None of us can accurately predict what comes next, only that the old world order is now dead and the birthing of the new one will be complex. Putin’s speech today primarily underlined that Russia has decided to make a complete break with the west; he answered the perennial Russian question of politics and philosophy: is Russia European or Asian. It’s Asian because Europe (the US is a European nation in real terms) doesn’t want Russia. Because it hates Russia deeply.

500+ years of European empire are dying before our eyes. And the European imperial project is primarily dying for the same reasons all empires fail. Overextension, inability to manage internal contradictions and the entropy of leadership. We all get to watch Gibbons live.

Posted by: Lex | Sep 30 2022 15:51 utc | 4

Side note for b. Are you still subscribed to the old t****list? It resurfaced in my inbox and it’s kind of weird.

Posted by: Lex | Sep 30 2022 15:53 utc | 5

It's gonna be a short-lived celebration if they can't turn this war around. Something has gone deeply wrong with Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1575571339993583616?s=20&t=slofQgZX38hA9VmHKVhwQA

Posted by: GoFast | Sep 30 2022 15:53 utc | 6

When The Daniel 7:5 Bear is seen with 3 ribs in its mouth between its teeth, this bear is told to arise and devour much flesh.

The Daniel 7:5 Bear most likely is today's Russian Bear when the bear of Daniel 7:5 is placed into context with the lion beast and the leopard beast of Daniel 7.

I think the 3 ribs could be Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. On July 3, 2022, the Luhansk region was taken by the Russian Bear and its allies. Soon the Donetsk region will be taken by the Russian Bear. At this point the bear may have 3 ribs in its mouth between its teeth.

If so, then the Russian Bear will arise and devour much flesh.

The geopolitical history of the Ukrainian conflict points to escalation in which the Russian Bear is enraged to nuke the USA and NATO.

When the Donetsk region falls to the Russian Bear, watch for the end of the USA and most of the West as this bear devours much flesh.

Get out of the USA and any of her territories and out of most NATO nations while you still can. Such a move may very well save your life as the time of Jacob's trouble begins.

Posted by: young | Sep 30 2022 15:54 utc | 7

I threw out my television 19 years ago. I'd go buy another to watch something as honest as b.'s description here of 21st c. Ukraine history.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Sep 30 2022 15:55 utc | 8

You're not honoring your moniker, update your info, Kharchenko takes a road to Red Liman.

https://t.me/anna_news/40352

Posted by: Paco | Sep 30 2022 15:57 utc | 9

Thank you b for the easy-to-understand, unless one is a belligerent, synopsis of the situation thus far.

If at this point cooler heads do not prevail, then things are going to get Biblical. Right now they are merely Shakespearean. He, like Sophocles and Euripides, was a master of Tragedy. And this is surely that.

We're about to evolve from a slippery slope to freefall.

cheers!

Posted by: gottlieb | Sep 30 2022 15:58 utc | 10

I've posted a machine translation of Putin's speech here. Here're my introductory remarks:

"Those readers of my articles over the past two years will note much integration of my thoughts with Putin's to the point where we use the same terms. A very powerful speech; some are calling it a Declaration of War on the Outlaw US Empire. Instead, I see it as a furtherance of the vow Putin made on September 21st that I just wrote about. But you can decide for yourself as you read the following machine translation. At the top of this linked page is a video in Russian along with the transcript. Other sites like RT will have a simulcast translation."

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 16:03 utc | 11

Quick note to my cherished fellow posters -- a link to an opinion in some random Twitter feed proves nothing.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Sep 30 2022 16:04 utc | 12

The main reason for adding those regions is ethnic Ukrainian majorities or pluralities. This worked in the Soviet context, but these Ukrainian populations were Russian in terms of political affiliation, and would have preferred to remain part of Russia. Compare the ethnic Ukrainian Russian fighters at Krasnyy Liman (Kuban Cossacks, descendants of the Zaporozhian Sich). The loss of Ukrainian language (about half of the ethnic population speak the language) in the Donbass had to do with the industrialization in the 1870s. At this point, Ukrainian ethnicity is becoming as splitas Serbian and Croatian ethnicity. Look up Green Ukraine...

Posted by: Johan Meyer (2) | Sep 30 2022 16:06 utc | 13

The user of nuclear weapons in Ukranazistan and the blame to be put on Russia became more inevitable than ever.

Again, all this could have been avoided by a massive Russian offensive in April, ignoring collateral damage for military
expediency, when Elensky rejected negotiations, to capture Kiev, destroy the nazi regime, terrify NATO, and liberate these regions in toto and at much lower cost.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Sep 30 2022 16:06 utc | 14

"...and Poland, Hungary and Romania will try to take the regions of Ukraine they previously controlled."

Wasn't that like 100 years ago? Pre WWI, certainly pre WWII.

Living in a (currently) stable country, the concept of flipping regions back and forth seems like a board game to me. But when everyone who was there has passed away, it starts to seem like a pretext.

Posted by: jhill | Sep 30 2022 16:08 utc | 15

A lot of Ukrainians got into power in the USSR. Not surprisingly they diverted territory from Russia to Ukraine. Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Chernenko, Gorbachev. Evidently a bit complicated as people moved around a lot in the Soviet Union.

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/how-ukrainian-origin-leaders-dominated-the-soviet-union-53932

Posted by: laguerre | Sep 30 2022 16:12 utc | 16

Posted by Aristodemos @11:13 A.M. CST

The Bolshevik/Soviet created Frankenstein Monster, composed of various ethnic and national body-parts, known as Ukraine SSR needs to be broken up into its constituent entities. This has been my position for months on end.

Unlike the RU which is a Federation of semi-independent states; Ukraine is a monopolity, meaning a national state totally controlled and directed from Kiev. The lack of any semblance of ethnic/national identity is bitterly and bloodily stamped out, as per the Russian language which is spoken by a majority in that so-called country, even by the Ukrainian ethnics, per se.

There ought to be a Ukrainian nation, one in close alliance, though demilitarized, with their Slavic brothers in Russia and Belarus. That state would be wholly and almost entirely comprised of people who have long considered themselves Ukrainians. Perhaps referenda should be initiated by the RU, as they sweep up the Kievan resistance. Areas which would prefer to revert to Romanian and Hungarian national status would get their wishes satisfied. The new Ukraine would divorce the Uniat and Banderite dominated Galicia. It would be demilitarized and left stranded. Ethnic Russian dominated Oblasts would receive the same gentle treatment as the four Oblasts which heavily voted to rejoin Mama Bear.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 30 2022 16:14 utc | 17

An observation I am making from TN. Yesterday and today the 3 local fake news stations, who've developed a habit of saying the exact same thing, almost word for word, is not one single second devoted to the exploded pipelines. I have the radio on all day and not one word there either.

A hunch I have is that the Wretched City is unsure how to spin this highly implausible story that Russia did this. Another hunch I have that Scholtz is going to have a very difficult time convincing Germans of the same. The thing about Germans is when they get fired up they can be difficult to control. It seems to me that it is humanity itself that is on trial here, for all the marbles.

Posted by: chunga | Sep 30 2022 16:14 utc | 18

jhill | 45

To insert some context for you, French colonial rule of Algeria lasted 132 years.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Sep 30 2022 16:16 utc | 19

A few threads back there was interest in the book The Ruling Elite: The Zionist Seizure of World Power by Deanna Spingola and a comment that it was hard to find. Just in case that is still the case here it is. They won't set up an account if you are in Europe.

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-ruling-elite-deanna-spingola/1111610907?ean=9781466918597

Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2022 16:17 utc | 20

There is a decent analysis and potential map in this Big Serge blog post...

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 30 2022 16:19 utc | 21

I wonder if Israel will take note and give back some land to the Palestinians.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Sep 30 2022 16:21 utc | 22

> Poland, Hungary and Romania will try to take the regions of Ukraine they previously controlled.

How will the West spin this?

Posted by: Ivan | Sep 30 2022 16:21 utc | 23

A few threads back there was interest in the book The Ruling Elite: The Zionist Seizure of World Power by Deanna Spingola and a comment that it was hard to find.

Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2022 16:17 utc | 20

It is available on the archive.org web site in PDF format for free. Lots of other banned or hard to find items there as well.

https://archive.org/details/deanna-spingola-the-ruling-elite-the-zionist-seizure-of-world-power

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 30 2022 16:23 utc | 24

"...for reasons unknown"

As far as i can see, those reasons were the long practiced strategy of 'Russifying' adjacent or newly conquered territories. Including a significant Russian majority was a way to ensure the continuation of Moscow-friendly politics, commerce and culture along the peripheries of the Russian empire and subsequent USSR.

Something the West was finally successful in countering in 2014, and was since further exacerbated as Crimea, the Oblast with the largest proportion of ethnic Russians, was annexed.

This is why Putin chose to eventually retake these territories, since the Russian portion of their population was no longer sufficient or able to influence Ukrainian politics in its favour at the ballot box. This also effectively neuters what is left of Ukraine, leaving it as a landlocked rump state. Today was another step in that direction, but it seems there is still a very long way to go... with many more unpredictable turns.

Posted by: Et tu | Sep 30 2022 16:28 utc | 25

I will continue to correct the overused map of the development and aggrandizement of Ukraine. Budjak (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budjak) west of Odessa is being presented as being included in Ukraine in 1922. This is beyond error, it is a falsehood of history. That area belonged to the Kingdom of Romania between 1917 and 1939 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Romania#/media/File:Romania_1930_ethnic_map_EN.png), and prior to that belonged to the Principality of Moldova from 1300s to 1812, when Russia annexed the eastern half of the Moldovan principality.

Posted by: Kouros | Sep 30 2022 16:28 utc | 26

I very highly suggest barflies read Putin's entire speech before commenting. There are several highly significant passages that destroy the AP's misreporting noted by b above. Eventually, I'll copy/paste some of those passages for discussion. And yes, this speech is more powerful and important historically than Putin's Mobilization Speech eight days ago.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 16:30 utc | 27

Opport Knocks | Sep 30 2022 16:23 utc | 24

Thanks.

Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2022 16:31 utc | 28

you've been putting a similar text wall history lesson in most of your ukraine posts lately...it's like the blog version of "last week on CSI:ukraine!" most people who read this blog know what happened so you could relax and save yourself the trouble.

anyhoo, the US/UK/blob hates democracy and uses it as window dressing so not a shock. those areas were dead to the west anyway so i doubt the opinion matters to your average...donbassian? borders in eastern europe (and the muslim world) have been very pliable since the USSR bought the farm. remember "yugoslavia"? do they consider pakistan a "sham" country because some dumbass brit drew a stupid border decades ago?

this is the new map and nobodies like blinken can do roughly jack shit about it. they keep bitching about crimea and these other oblasts/regions while their own citizens are sharpening pitchforks. the US/UK/"EU" public doesn't give a damn...if they ever did. if anything, this is all having the effect propaganda usually has...it's like the "streisand effect" writ large. i would be maybe 8% shocked to see putin polling higher than biden by 2024.

Posted by: the pair | Sep 30 2022 16:32 utc | 29

Now Putin's speech is defined as hate speech on German TV and spread as such!
I hope that he now with successes these media forces himself to embarrass!

Posted by: Mo3 | Sep 30 2022 16:36 utc | 30

Now the real question is when will NATO back down and realise that going to war for Ukraine is not a winnable option?

(sorry for cross posting)

Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2022 16:37 utc | 31

Just published statement from Stoltenburg who says that Ukraine cannot join NATO.

NATO is not a party to the conflict - says NATO

t.me/asbmil

Posted by: Cyberhorse | Sep 30 2022 16:38 utc | 32

The ethnic Russian people in Ukraine feared being canceled

C'mon, b.

I know that Putin used that word, but it is ridiculous for multipolaristas to posture as trying to free countries from angloid cultural imperialism while also carrying on the culture wars of the conservative faction of the angloid power elite.

Posted by: fnord | Sep 30 2022 16:39 utc | 33

Zelenski now wants to join NATO quickly!
He must have understood that this is now his END!
And :
Since NATO said NO, what's left for him, escape ???
How will he react now that he has his end in mind???
By the way: Is reported in DE that Liman has now fallen...Russians overrun. that Russia lacks the power .... and and and !!

Posted by: Mo3 | Sep 30 2022 16:43 utc | 34

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 16:03 utc | 11

Pronoun usage in the machine translation is pretty bad. Probably not worth fixing. Wait for the official translation should there be one.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Sep 30 2022 16:50 utc | 35

Is it pedantry to ask whether "accession" is a more accurate description of what has happened rather than "annexation"?
To me, annexation is often a result of conquest, other times it potentially implies exercise of power by a stronger party, the weaker party's approval is often not a factor.
The four regions freely voted for and requested membership of the Russian Federation, thus I believe accession is more accurate.

Posted by: ltexpat | Sep 30 2022 16:50 utc | 36

"Ukrainian itself is a Russian dialect."

That isn't how languages work. Stretching from Poland to Moscow you have a spectrum of East Slavic dialects with varying degrees of mutual intelligibility. You could just as easily claim something like 'Muscovite is a dialect of Ukrainian', and it would as equally a nonsense statement.

Posted by: Soredemos | Sep 30 2022 16:50 utc | 37

I wrote a song to mark the occasion. Sing with enthusiasm to "Star Man" until you reach the ? At this point change to end of "I'm a Lumberjack" increasing the questioning tone with each ?

There's a small man hiding in Kiev,snorting marching powder and learning how to beg.
Theres a small man hiding in Kiev,he's gonna take Crimea! But he lost Kherson instead?
And Lugansk??... And Donetsk??? ... And Zaparozhye too

That aside congratulations to the people of the Donbass.I'm not quite as comfortable with the other two regions. But I'm 100% behind the people of The Donbass in light of both the sufferering and abandonment they have suffered since 2014.

Posted by: Bob | Sep 30 2022 16:51 utc | 38

Zelenski now wants to join NATO quickly! He must have understood that this is now his END! And : Since NATO said NO, what's left for him, escape ???

Posted by: Mo3 | Sep 30 2022 16:43 utc | 34

More importantly he also said he will not negotiate with Putin, only a different Russian President. Which means his latest Live Stream acting gig, "The Pretend President" will not be renewed for a 5th season. His agent is negotiating a new show hosting "Real Cokeheads of Miami" describing the rise and fall of those addicted to the drug.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 30 2022 16:53 utc | 40

"NATO's door remains open" as per Stoltenberg when asked about Ukraine's request to join the Alliance

But he says, "While we support Ukraine's right to choose its own path...a decision on membership has to be taken by all 30 allies"

NATO blinked. There was little else to do.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 16:54 utc | 41

@ karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 16:03 utc | 11

I watched Putin's speech live and I actually thought he copied a lot of your ideas. And some of Dr Hudson.
No kidding, it was really bright to hear him say live that the era of looting was over.
Otherwise, it was remarkable that all the French TV channels had to broadcast the whole speech live.
Then painfully tried to clear the air.
"Yes, it's true, we had slavery, colonialism and all that... but so has Russia"...
A very weak argument that is an admission.
Desperation transpired in their disillusioned comments

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 30 2022 16:55 utc | 42

Pepe Escobar's newest article at The Cradle helps explain the forces Putin mentions in his speech, "Who profits from Pipeline Terror?"

Blue Dotterel @35--

I checked to see how much of the English transcript was finished before I went to use the Russian. At the time it was only about 1/6th complete. I just now looked, and it's perhaps half done now. It will be here when finished, perhaps by noon Pacific.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 16:57 utc | 43

Every American student high school senior and all college kids should be able to read this honest essay. Americans are not allowed to hear Russia's point of view. Russia and President Putin are acting on behalf of their people with just cause.

Posted by: charles shamey | Sep 30 2022 16:58 utc | 44

How about Russia assisting Mexico in reclaiming its 1836 borders?

Posted by: WTFUD | Sep 30 2022 16:58 utc | 45

How come you never hear about Russians fleeing to Abkhazia? It's the Kokomo of the Black Sea region. Cue the music:

"Everybody knows there's a place called Sokhumi/ its what you wanna see / and where the Russians should flee.... Odessa, Batumi, ohhh I wanna move me / Sochi, Amasra, take pass on both ya / Rize and Trabzon, really we should move on / down to Abkhazia / why don't we go visit Sokhumi? / Lest I'm drafted into the infantry / that's where we wanna flee (whoa-oh!) / way down in Sokhumi!"


Posted by: GoFast | Sep 30 2022 16:59 utc | 46

@ Mo3 | Sep 30 2022 16:43 utc | 34

I don't expect this to end just like Vietnam or Afghanistan. But, you just made me picture Elensky throwing a bag of cash onto a chopper or jet before clinging to the landing gear.

Posted by: dfg | Sep 30 2022 16:59 utc | 47

Red Lines.
Not Bluffing.
In Earnest.
Russia For Ever.

So first move is to secure the new borders.
Second to stop terrorist attacks across that border.
Third to defend any declaration of War by the rump Ukraine by absolutely taking the rest of it to its western borders with its treaty allies of the SCO. That means a non local asymmetric destruction of Ukraines forces, supplies and backers.
Fourth to smack down the thick as mince Poles who just never seem to learn throughout history.
Fifth to encourage the continuously Occupied losers of WW2 to finally ask the Yanks to Go Home.
Then a happy new delayed Eurasian Century and the multipolar world order finally begins as humanity raises the poorest and fucks the ancient robber barons.

All over by Xmas?

Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 30 2022 17:00 utc | 48

big serge is back with a good one:

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun

a very broad look at everything happening right now. reports from liman/lyman don't paint such a pretty picture but i'd guess the rest is pretty accurate.

Posted by: the pair | Sep 30 2022 17:02 utc | 49

Hurrah to all those who remained steadfast in Novorussia for the last 8 years! May all Russia and its regions and people remain safe, vigilant and working hard against their enemies from.the predatory West.
May the martyrs rest in eternal peace, may they be remembered and honored by the bravery of all their comrades.
May the international brigades of volunteers be accepted and organized soon on the Russian fields.

Now that DC and London's bankers have ruined Germany, NATO's criminal enterprise has to decide if it wants to push Russia toward open and total war. In other words what is the level of their insanity?

Posted by: Kareem | Sep 30 2022 17:04 utc | 50

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 16:57 utc | 43

Thanks for your efforts. In any case, the points made are evident, and it is really valuable that he has made them. I hope to send your link to others.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Sep 30 2022 17:07 utc | 51

DPR Civilians On Why They Wanted A Referendum To Join Russia (Eva K Bartlett YouTube channel, September 29, 2022 — 28 min 41 s)

Posted by: S | Sep 30 2022 17:07 utc | 52

La Bastille @42--

Thanks for your reply. Well, he did acknowledge my/our existence that others even within the Outlaw US Empire's sphere are with Russia. I'd add it's not so much that we're with Russia as we are for the struggle to obtain the Four Freedoms for all humanity, Russia being in the vanguard--again--of that renewed struggle. Over twenty years ago I wrote our Declaration of Independence could be aimed at our federal government, so far had it ventured from its ideals and values, but even then my writing was tardy.

Interesting French media carried the speech live. That would never happen here. That lies were used to combat the truths told merely proves what Putin said about that very thing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 17:10 utc | 53

And now, all commentators concede that the situation has radically changed and regret that Europe was not strong enough to impose on Ukraine, negotiations earlier.
The great backtracking of short memories, of "it's not my fault", of "we only followed the others".

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 30 2022 17:14 utc | 54

La Bastille | Sep 30 2022 16:55 utc | 42

Desperation transpired in their disillusioned comments

Yes, it is pitiful. All they have now is 'yes but...' and 'worrabout...'

Maybe Macron will explain it all to the deplorable visi-vestiers before they start to shiver too much

Posted by: Lapin | Sep 30 2022 17:14 utc | 55

"We have many like-minded people all over the world, and we see their support. A liberation movement against unipolar hegemony is developing all over the world. Today we are fighting to make dictatorship and despotism forever a thing of the past. A policy built on the exclusivity of someone and the suppression of other cultures and peoples is criminal. We must turn this shameful page. The collapse of Western hegemony that has begun is irreversible."

Okay trolls. Chew on that.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 17:17 utc | 56

I think real war started today. What will Biden do? NATO is waiting for US. We are so close to midterms. Pray!

Posted by: Mat | Sep 30 2022 17:19 utc | 57

The west got totally outplayed. By commiting to the Kherson/Kharkov offensives,the totally lost the ability to influence the referenda besides tossing missiles. Brians "Tactical success leads to strategic defeat" alluded to the single stage thinking approach.

Posted by: Bob | Sep 30 2022 17:20 utc | 58

thanks b...

i don't agree with @ the pair | Sep 30 2022 16:32 utc | 29 and think it is good to go over this again.. on the other hand, the issue of language - @ Soredemos | Sep 30 2022 16:50 utc | 37 probably makes a valid point..

@ karlof1... thanks for your posts.. i guess i will wait til noon pst time..

@ chunga | Sep 30 2022 16:14 utc | 18 - i agree with your conclusion at the end... thanks..

my own view, is this conflict will continue to ramp up... i wish i saw it different, but the west is not interested in backing down and neither is russia... meanwhile the dipshit in kiev will continue on in his hollywood star role... the western msm will continue to lie and mis- characterize what is happening here... the military complex, banking sector and western energy complex will continue to profit off all this.. they have no interest in seeing any of this change... the west under usa leadership will do more brazen acts then the nordstream pipeline one they did earlier in the week... expect a continuation here and a potentially much more serious escalation... that is my take.. i hope i am wrong... thanks to the regulars here - paco, S, karlof1 and etc. etc..

Posted by: james | Sep 30 2022 17:20 utc | 59

Interesting French media carried the speech live. That would never happen here. That lies were used to combat the truths told merely proves what Putin said about that very thing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 17:10 utc | 53
Not only carried the speech live. It's around the clock talk show !

We did not understand what Putin was preparing since 2007. We have not treated the Russians well with our sanctions and exclusions. The nationalist and anti-American wave is an opportunity for him. It is necessary to be diplomatic and to try to discuss.

The TV war mongers are tired,

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 30 2022 17:23 utc | 60

One (of many) *summaries* of Putin's speech with some commentary. I recommend the original machine translation provided by karlof1@11 - this is truly a historical speech.

Konstantin Kisin
https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1575853684852150272

"I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin's speech. Obviously, that won't happen so let me summarise as a professional translator for 10+ years. He states, as he has done from the outset, what his intentions and complaints are in the plainest terms possible.🧵
9:22 AM · Sep 30, 2022"

Setting aside his brief comments on the recent "referendums", he spends most of his speech discussing the West. His primary complaint isn't NATO expansion, which gets only a cursory mention. The West is greedy and seeks to enslave and colonise other nations, like Russia.

The West uses the power of finance and technology to enforce its will on other nations. To collect what he calls the "hegemon's tax". To this end the West destabilises countries, creates terrorist enclaves and most of all seeks to deprive other countries of sovereignty.

It is this "avarice" and desire to preserve its power that is the reason for the "hybrid war" the collective West is "waging on Russia". They want us to be a "colony". They do not want us to be free, they want Russians to be a mob of soulless slaves - direct quote.

The rules-based order the West goes on about is "nonsense". Who made these rules? Who agreed to them? Russia is an ancient country and civilization and we will not play by these "rigged" rules. The West has no moral authority to challenge the referendums because it has violated

...the borders of other countries. Western elites are "totalitarian, despotic and apartheidistic" - direct quote. They are racist against Russia and other countries and nations. "Russophobia is racism". They discriminate by calling themselves the "civilised world".

They colonised, started the global slave trade, genocided native Americans, pillaged India and Africa, forced China to buy opium through war. We, on the other hand, are proud that we "led" the anti-colonial movement that helped countries develop to reduce poverty and inequality.

They are Russophobic (they hate us) because we didn't allow our country to be pillaged by creating a strong CENTRALISED (emphasis his) state based on Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism. They have been trying to destabilise our country since the 17th century in the Times...

...of Trouble (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_Troubles). Eventually, they managed to "get their hands on our riches" at the end of the 20th century. They called us friends and partners while pumping out trillions of dollars (his irony game is strong today).

en.wikipedia.org
Time of Troubles - Wikipedia

We remember this. We didn't forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it's the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened

German cities without "any military need to do so". There was no need for this except to scare us and the rest of the world. Korea, Vietnam. To this day they "occupy" Japan, South Korea and Germany and other countries while cynically calling them "allies".

The West has surveillance over the leaders of these nations who "swallow these insults like the slaves they are".

He then talks about bioweapon research (haven't heard about them for a while) and human experiments "including in Ukraine".

The US rules the world by the power of the fist. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neocolonialism is cloaked in lies like "containment" of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme...

...propaganda (irony game still strong).

You cannot feed your people with printed dollars and social media. You need food and energy. But Western elites have no desire to find a solution to the food and energy crises *they* (emphasis his) created.

They solved the problems at the start of 20c with WW1 and the US established dominance of the world via the dollar as a result of WW2. In the 80s they had another crisis they solved by "plundering our country". Now they want to solve their problems by "breaking Russia".

Russia "understands its responsibility to the international community" and will "do everything to cool the heads of these neocolonials who are destined to fail".

They're crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens, do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2?

They invented genders and claim you can "transition". Do we want this for our children?

We have a different vision.

They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism - direct quote.

The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multipolar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.

We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming

liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak - direct quote. These will only grow.

We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West's hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).

There is no going back. We are fighting for our "great (as in big), historic Russia". Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.

Truth is with us, Russia is with us.

That's the end of the speech. As I said from day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn't about NATO or Ukraine, this is the big play to replace the current world order.

https://youtu.be/j1C8awu_d6Y

End of thread.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 30 2022 17:24 utc | 61

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 30 2022 16:55 utc | 42

I watched Putin's speech live and I actually thought he copied a lot of your ideas.

I got the exact same vibe. Some very specific language. Somebody in power in Russia reads MOA with respect.

Also Karl, thanks for the VK blog post. Such work is very important.

As for outcomes, whilst I don't think much will change, the next few weeks will be quite tense.

Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Sep 30 2022 17:25 utc | 62

I doubt the US or UK will care one little bit if the RF retaliates when Ukrainian forces attack the Donbas after today knowing its now part of the Russian Federation, Ukrainians are expendable, their demise will be greatly propagandised by Nato.

The only big difference I can see happening is that Russian forces can now directly attack any Ukrainian target it sees fit to attack anywhere in Ukraine, if the new Russian Federation oblasts are attacked.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Sep 30 2022 17:26 utc | 63

Firstly congratulations to our host for what is probably the best and most succinct summary of the recent history of Ukraine I have seen. It should be compulsory reading for the entire Western msm.
I suspect that the Russians won't be too worried about Krasny Lyman. They apparently have amassed a large force North of Kharkiv. It can only be to their advantage if Ukraine has concentrated its main forces and armour around Lyman so that it will not be able to respond to a Russian fist from Belgorod going south.

Posted by: Pancho Plail | Sep 30 2022 17:26 utc | 64

Las razones de Lenin son bien conocidas, lo que se desconoce son las razones por las que se aparenta ignorarlas. Fue con decisiones como esta que Lenin consiguió mantener en pie el imperio ruso, en las condiciones más adversas, frente a los mismos enemigos que hoy trabajan para desmembrar a Rusia.

Posted by: Frasco | Sep 30 2022 17:26 utc | 65

I'm sorry but the level of delusion reached by pro-Russian bloggers and commenters is becoming almost comical.

Russian forces are getting their ass whipped in Krasny Lyman. Tens, maybe hundreds, of good, trained soldiers are being maimed or captured. And people here are treating it as almost a footnote.

The Russian army is slowly disintegrating. The RAF loses planes by the day, its best troops are getting eroded. The level of incompetence of the Russian general staff, as evidenced by the shambolic mobilization, is truly breathtaking. It's quite mind-bending to see these pompous asses congratulate themselves in Moscow while AFU is crushing their troops in Lyman and elsewhere.

And people here still seem to think there are magical reserves lying somewhere, which will be activated when Putin somehow presses the magic button. Man..

There are no extra troops. Russia has almost exhausted its supply of combat-ready troops. Same goes for artillery - both tubes and rounds are slowly consumed. Same for aviation, anti-air means, and so on. The Russian army is burning through its stock and is quite far from having the production capacity to replace them. I fear very dark days for Russia ahead.

Posted by: Micron | Sep 30 2022 17:28 utc | 66

Just a clarification from my above post, my offspring are not ignorant of the current events, but it is 3:30 am here, so I don't expect them to pay to much attention at this hour.

Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Sep 30 2022 17:28 utc | 67

@ Paveway - Putin talking about the dollar is key, imo. Without the reserve currency printing press the US cannot have the massive military and without the massive military it cannot have the reserve currency printing press.

Now what I see is the US firing in *all directions*, afraid of something and that something might be the use of the dollar is diminishing to the point that this cannot be sustained. There is no reasoning with these people. Perhaps I am being naive or perhaps hopeful but it would not surprise me one day to wake up and learn the US has declared sovereign default. That sounds sensational but I believe were that to happen everyone would benefit in the long run, and as they say "in the long run, the long run always prevails".

Posted by: chunga | Sep 30 2022 17:35 utc | 68

The "Western International Community".

Whaouuuu

A new notion invented live on LCI.


So the famous "Western international community" is worried about not being able to deliver to Ukraine, or even to manufacture enough military equipment.

But they are encouraged to continue the fighting.
Martyanov must be rolling on the floor with laughter

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 30 2022 17:35 utc | 69

We are about to witness the full power of the Russian battle station!

No seriously, we are about to witness Russia removing her velvet gloves that has been part of the SMO.

The first point of this new military operation (NMO) will begin very shortly at the city of Krasny Liman (a key railroad hub in Donbass) which is currently being half surrounded by the Ukies.

According to Pepe Escobar's Telegram, "Four battle groups of the Russian 58th Army, reinforced with armors en route to Liman to deblocade it and change the tactic situation on the ground. Bombers armed with FAB-500 (500kg) and FAB-3000 (3t) bombs scrambled."

This will be a welcome sight for a lot of people, not the least of which are the residents of Krasny Liman. I can't wait.

Posted by: Sam Smith | Sep 30 2022 17:35 utc | 70

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 30 2022 16:55 utc | 42
I watched Putin's speech live and I actually thought he copied a lot of your ideas.
I got the exact same vibe. Some very specific language. Somebody in power in Russia reads MOA with respect.

Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Sep 30 2022 17:25 utc | 62

Careful now, someone in one of the Alphabet agencies may conclude Karlof1 is really Aleksandr Dugin. It might not end well.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 30 2022 17:35 utc | 71

Micron (66).

Points of view differ greatly.


https://southfront.org/in-video-high-skills-of-russian-pilots-in-krasny-liman/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Sep 30 2022 17:40 utc | 72

Source: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27452.5/4655749/
The battle for Liman - right now ours are holding out to the last in a fire environment
KP.RU special correspondent Alexander Kots said that the Russian allied forces in Krasny Liman continue to hold the line

By the day of the signing of agreements on the accession of four new regions to Russia, Kyiv needed an information bomb. To smooth the blow to self-esteem. And for her sake, the troops of Ukraine tried. The idea is to take Krasny Liman by September 30 and in defiance of the holiday in the Kremlin. Bite off a significant part of the territory recently recaptured by the allied forces.

Krasny Lyman is of strategic importance. Several roads leading from the Lugansk People's Republic pass through it at once. From here, the operational space extends both to the north of the LPR and to the south. The offensive can be developed on Svatovo, and on Kremennaya, and on Lisichansk.

In recent weeks, the enemy has been systematically throwing tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and infantry at the defensive lines near Liman, regardless of losses. The forces of the advancing on different days exceeded ours by 4-5 times. Ukrainian troops, leaving dozens of corpses in the fields and forest plantations, gradually occupied the settlements around Krasny Liman. The defending garrison asked for help. It was reinforced with LPR artillery, aviation was working, but this was not enough. And on Friday, the enemy designed the operational encirclement of the city. This means that he did not physically cut the roads leading to the mainland. But he put them under the control of his artillery.

Why haven't reserves reached Liman yet that could push the enemy away from the city? I suppose that today we simply do not have enough strength in this area. It is still too early to throw the mobilized into battle, they must be trained, and it is dangerous to expose other fronts. Who knows, suddenly the attack on the Liman is a diversionary maneuver, and the main blow will be delivered elsewhere... And we still have a difficult defense sector along the Oskol River - after leaving Izyum, Ukrainian troops are actively probing it, breaking through it in different places .

And the enemy withdrew part of his forces from Seversk, throwing all his forces on the remnants of our 20th army defending Liman, volunteers from BARS-13, Cossacks and fighters of the now Russian republics. It is impossible for us to blame the abandonment of settlements around Liman. They defend themselves truly heroically. But the forces are frankly unequal.

At the time of writing these lines, Krasny Liman continues to hold the line. Nearby settlements of Yampol and Drobyshevo, which were previously controlled by Russian forces, are now in the "gray zone". Ukrainian troops occupied Kolodezi and Zelenaya Dolina. Additional Russian equipment is being brought to the area for deblockade, aviation and artillery are actively working. By the end of September 30, the heroic garrison had not been broken. But he is counting on a counterattack, which will allow not only to return the message from the LPR, but also to throw back the enemy.

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Sep 30 2022 17:41 utc | 73

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Sep 30 2022 16:06 utc | 14

Excellent comment and entirely correct.

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Sep 30 2022 17:43 utc | 74

This speech was more important, and much more analytically powerful and clarifying, than any previous speech by President Putin.

He put his full understanding of the essence of the conflict on the table. That is exceptionally rare from any leader.

I thought his identification with the national liberation struggles of the Third World after WW2 was extremely powerful, and precisely what is needed to maintain solidarity and build a new world of sovereign multipolar development.

Russia needs that spirit and understanding to win this conflict. Putin provided it.

Putin all but said that Russia is the vanguard spear of world resistance to western imperialism.

My only concern is his offer of negotiations and the lingering questions about whether or not Russia has capacities to see this through to victory, which will require the defeat of Kiev and its overlords in Ukraine.

Posted by: Prof | Sep 30 2022 17:45 utc | 75

LOL how many times have I said this now? Russia is 1 step behind

How can Russia accept Donbass if Ukraine about to take important city of Liman?!
How is it friggin possible that Russia and Donbas forces have not secured their own friggin border yet!!

Key Donbass city ‘half-encircled’ by Ukraine – DPR
Kiev deployed formidable force during its offensive, a top Donbass official has said
https://swentr.site/russia/563799-ukraine-half-encircles-liman/

The worst thing for Russia now would be if Ukraine just walk in Donbass coming weeks, that would be a great humiliation.

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 30 2022 17:45 utc | 76

The historical map tells it all: Ukraine historically speaking was a tiny rump state of little or no significance. Lenin made a huge mistake adding Russian territory to it. Krushchev was a complete idiot adding Crimea to it. The west Ukraine Austrian Empire Galicians always looked at their ethnic Russian compatriots with contempt and derision, like Bandara for example. The only way forward is what Russia and Donbass are doing now, i.e. returning the ethnic Russian parts of Ukraine back to Russia. This means that all of the east Donbass and all of the southern coastal regions all the way west through Odessa to Transnistria should be made once again part of Russia. Ukraine should go back to its original 1654 borders.

Posted by: Deschutes | Sep 30 2022 17:50 utc | 77

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 30 2022 17:35 utc | 71

Indirectly Darya Dugina was part of Putin's speech, he said the west wants to kill Russian philosophers and ideas. In the previous thread and right after listening to the speech I gave a brief recap, "The Outlaw US empire", that speech will do for an appropriate history lesson at the high school level.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 30 2022 17:52 utc | 78

@ Mo3 | Sep 30 2022 16:43 utc | 34

Ukraine has been a member of NATO since 2014. ... It just did not fill out the paperwork back then. ... It was trained, armed, and equipped by NATO for the past 8 years.

Ukraine today is MORE than a member as nearly every NATO country sends arms, money, and mercenaries to fight on their side. ... What other NATO country gets this?

Posted by: Mummer | Sep 30 2022 17:52 utc | 79

Posted by: young | Sep 30 2022 15:54 utc | 7

Mr. Young, get a life, grow up, it is time to put the proverbial teddy bears away.

Posted by: Guernica | Sep 30 2022 17:52 utc | 80

PavewayIV @61--

Thanks for posting that thread. The translator's noting Putin's use of emphasis was important IMO. After his meetings yesterday with CIS and Security Council people, I'm not at all surprised by the speech's content and focus. Russians have very good reasons to rejoice that Putin's their president.

La Bastille @60--

Thanks for that! France will now be attacked to tame its media.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 17:52 utc | 81

The Duran video on the 4 Oblasts joining Russia today
Putin's historic speech finalizes referenda, infuriates Collective West

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 17:53 utc | 82

@ chunga | Sep 30 2022 16:14 utc | 18
. . .not one single second devoted to the exploded pipelines

According to the MSM (from the US) is they are not exploded pipelines they are "leaks".
--Mystery leaks hit Russian undersea gas pipelines to Europe
--NATO believes Baltic Sea gas pipeline leaks were sabotage
--Russia's gas pipeline leaking into Baltic Sea - Denmark
--Nord Stream: Sweden finds new leak in Russian gas pipeline

Perhaps the 20,000 CIA people can figure it out?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 30 2022 17:56 utc | 83

Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 30 2022 17:00 utc | 48

I wish you were correct, but I fear you are not. The whole problem is that the red lines *are* bluffs.

Incorporating these regions into Russia proper enables a "counter-terrorist operation'? Talk about lowered expectations. That is not the sort of language that translates to "tanks at the Polish border", which is what is required.

This is supposedly an existential crisis for Russia. Which is now to be solved by taking a tiny part of Ukraine, leaving the rest untouched, and perhaps - perhaps - launching a Spetsnaz raid or two against Ukrainian "terrorists" after they cross Russia's red lines oh so many times!

Again, I really wish it were as you say. It isn't. Russia is going to get done, because of the autistic legalism and lack of military imagination on the part of its current rulers.

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Sep 30 2022 17:59 utc | 84

Hey b! Nice summary of the Russia growth

Success is measured in the number of trolls that come to spew their digital white noise around the bar thinking they can impact the MoA commenters/readers.

Today is the first day I am seeing potential bifurcation in the markets with market down but precious metals even or up.....which we should expect big time when the crash comes and empire loses the ability to manipulate the markets like currently.

What a time to live!

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 30 2022 18:03 utc | 85

Prof @75--

Thanks for your commentary. IMO, Putin offered to negotiate again because he knows that offer will be refused; Zelensky won't even need prompting as he knows his lines very well given the amount of practice.

Paco @78--

Thanks for making that distinction. Essentially, The Outlaw US Empire cannot tolerate any ideas that aren't its own, which is Trademark Totalitarianism. Again, I highly suggest Escobar's article I linked upthread for its description of the opposing forces. There are other idiocies happening that deserve some attention, like this: "MEP wants Russian region split between two EU states: A Czech lawmaker has suggested holding a referendum on making Kaliningrad Region 'Czech-Polish.'" It seems this idiot wants an open war with NATO as aggressor. Putin's warning to the CIS is also very important given recent events. As I wrote yesterday, The Empire will use all its assets to try and regain its status.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 18:07 utc | 86

Looks like RT links will again block comments from being posted.

Prof @75--

Thanks for your commentary. IMO, Putin offered to negotiate again because he knows that offer will be refused; Zelensky won't even need prompting as he knows his lines very well given the amount of practice.

Paco @78--

Thanks for making that distinction. Essentially, The Outlaw US Empire cannot tolerate any ideas that aren't its own, which is Trademark Totalitarianism. Again, I highly suggest Escobar's article I linked upthread for its description of the opposing forces. There are other idiocies happening that deserve some attention, like this: "MEP wants Russian region split between two EU states: A Czech lawmaker has suggested holding a referendum on making Kaliningrad Region 'Czech-Polish.'" It seems this idiot wants an open war with NATO as aggressor. Putin's warning to the CIS is also very important given recent events. As I wrote yesterday, The Empire will use all its assets to try and regain its status.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 18:08 utc | 87

Micron does it occur that relative calm prevails in Moscow compared to Kiev is because they both know somthing you dont?

As for the battlefields the AFU by any measure has suffered orders of magnitude more KIA/WIA/MIA & POW than the RAF & auxiliary forces combined.

Even if the situation in Lyman is as bad as you say, the troops there would hardly be in a mood to surrender to the Ukrs en-masse So if they cant withdraw a prolonged siege is likely.

Meaning the pinned down AFU might get pounded by heavy bombers & other munitions that the Russians haven't used much up to this point.

And if Lyman is taken what's the con weighed against that pro? A lot more than the town is worth in all likelihood so a Pyrrac victory at best...

Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 30 2022 18:12 utc | 88

psychohistorian @85--

The trolls can't determine what line to use as we've seen several that aren't at all consistent. Yes, the temptation to reply is strong but there's far too much more to digest than wasting energy in that direction.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 18:13 utc | 89

Air raid sirens all over Ukraine right now. Anyone know whats going on?? I unistalled my twitter app a while back (and my quality of life is so much better)

Posted by: Comandante | Sep 30 2022 18:16 utc | 90

https://t.me/sashakots/36138

Sasha Kots posts a video with english speaking soldiers or mercenaries. The caption to the vido "Take no mercenary prisoners"

Posted by: Paco | Sep 30 2022 18:20 utc | 91

Putin should have said that the 2020 elections in the US were a 'sham' and the results shouldn't be recognized.

Posted by: Gerald | Sep 30 2022 18:21 utc | 92

Nice to hear Putin confirm many of the key "conspiracy theories". Likewise Meloni in Italy.
Mask is slipping.
People may notice.
It is an unwinable battle, so fitting that Russia will engage.
I hope Putin has made solid arrangements for transfer of power should it become neccesary.

Posted by: jared | Sep 30 2022 18:21 utc | 93

IT is a rare moment of clarity, a pivotal point, a moment to remember when the fog of war rises again and events come chasing one another.

I must say I was mightily confused when the armed forces of Ukraine started their Kharkov offensive. Russians pulled back without visibly hampering the onslaught.

I was confused because I was waiting for what now has happened, and at that time, for some reason, it seemed to have become impossible.

I could blame Dima, but it was my own fault – I’m not versed in these kind of things – troops here, troopes there – hope rises as easily as it is destroyed. I do have other means, different ones, maybe not as good, and I saw I need to trust them.

History of the modern world in one short speach. No working class struggle, just humanity. That’s something to behold.

Posted by: js | Sep 30 2022 18:21 utc | 94

@ karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 18:13 utc | 88 with the good follow up on everything going on....thanks.

It looks like the wheels might be falling off the empire bus and it can't happen soon enough for me.

Thanks to b for the forum and his insightful postings which we try to add value to.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 30 2022 18:22 utc | 95

@ Zanon | Sep 30 2022 17:45 utc | 76

>> How can Russia accept Donbass if Ukraine
>> about to take important city of Liman?!

The NATZO's should sue for peace. They should offer to withdraw from Russian territory completely or face the consequences.

Those consequences include loss of more territory.

Do NATZO's feel lucky?

Posted by: dfg | Sep 30 2022 18:31 utc | 96

@Gerald | Sep 30 2022 18:21 utc | 91

Putin should have said that the 2020 elections in the US were a 'sham' and the results shouldn't be recognized.
No, Putin is not stupid. The west would take it as a confirmation that 'russiagate' was true.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 18:33 utc | 97

@Karlof1 Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 30 2022 18:08 utc | 86

It seems to me this powerful speech is intended as a rallying call to total war. I think we are about to see massive (100% conventional) war against NATO, starting really quickly after the accession of the four states. Big big fireworks.

Posted by: BM | Sep 30 2022 18:38 utc | 98

https://t.me/azmilitary11/22955
The German Chancellor, the Prime Minister of Denmark,Norway and Sweden state, that everything points to deliberate sabotage on the "Northern Streams", the Cabinet of Ministers of Germany reported‼️

Yes.... and everything points to a well known "ally". But they don't dare to say that... yet.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 18:40 utc | 99

You can't really treat those referenda as credible with a straight face? Referenda conducted under the omnipresence of an occupying force. Where a sizable portion of the population was forced to flee for safety and therefore could not participate in these referenda. Even Crimea was nothing like this. And 98% results never happen in real votes.

It's disrespectful for Putin to throw a slogan like "We haven't started yet" at this point. Why didn't you start at the beginning? Doesn't this mean that possibly thousands of Russian soldiers are dead because you hadn't started yet?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 30 2022 18:41 utc | 100

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