Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 21, 2022

Russia Announces Partial Mobilization

Updated below (8:45 UTC)

The expected TV speech by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, advertised for yesterday evening, did happen only this morning.

Putin announced a partial mobilization of military reserves:

Only citizens who are currently in the reserve and, above all, those who served in the ranks of the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience will be subject to conscription for military service.

Those called up for military service before being sent to the units will necessarily undergo additional military training taking into account the experience of a special military operation.

Additionally all military service contracts currently in force (usually 3 to 12 months) are extended indefinitely.

Putin said that the current conflict was instigated by the West, noting that the Western countries seek the destruction and disintegration of Russia. He said that the West had been supporting international terrorists, promoted the infrastructure of the NATO offensive close to Russia's borders and fostered Russophobia.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said (video, Sputnik report) that 300,000 reservist will be mobilized. Conscripts and people currently studying will not be send to Ukraine.

He also said that, so far, 5,937 Russian soldiers have died during the war in Ukraine. (This number does not include the militia of the DPR and LPR, or the Wagner group, who have done most of the frontline work and thus have had higher losses.) Shoigu puts Ukrainian losses at some 62,000 killed and some 50,000 wounded. (I regard this as a low estimate.)

Russia's total military reserve, people who have previously gone through military training, is 25 million. It also has the equipment to arm those forces.

There are rumors that the Ukraine is preparing for an all out offensive, mobilizing and preparing new units from Kiev and further west for one big push against the Russian and allied forces. It will take a few months to prepare for this. The Ukraine will need much more equipment and ammunition from the 'west', including 'western' tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and has yet to train troops to be able to use it. It is likely intending to start the offensive only in spring.

The call up Russia announced now may have the intent to draw Kiev into a premature launch of its general offensive. The mobilized Russian troops will take about three months to be ready for war. Russia could thus launch its own offensive during the winter season. In the meantime constant defensive work will continue to severely degrade the Ukrainian units which are currently on or near the frontlines.

With a force of an additional 300,000 troops, far beyond the 100,000 to 150,000 engaged now in the war, the Russia forces could change their tactics from the slow grind that is happening now into a larger scale maneuver war with heavy strikes into the operational depth of the Ukrainian army.

Belarus, allied with the Russian Federation, is also in the process of getting ready for war. It could, as it had threatened before, cut of the supply lines from the 'west' into the Ukraine in the western part of that country.

Should current Ukrainian attacks on civilians and infrastructure in Russia and the Donbas regions continue, we can expect that the Russian forces will start to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure on a large scale. The electricity and railway networks would be the primary targets.

Update:

Some two weeks ago a successful Ukrainian offensive led to the retreat of Russian troops in the Kharkov region. That at least is the 'western' version of that story. A different narrative is that the Russian troops intentionally withdrew from the region to raise Russian calls for an escalation of the war.  The Izium withdrawal was thus probably a mere catalyst for 'starting in earnest':

The Russian public, which at first did not fully understand why the war was necessary, has since grown in its awareness. It now understands the big game that is played against its country. It may soon demand to adjust the level of resources put into the war to the one needed for a decisive victory. Polls will clarify if or when that point is reached.

That is why Dima concludes that: "We can say that today was the best ever [..] day for the Russians in the territory of Ukraine."

It is now probably assured that they will be liberated. One way or another.

I also believe that the withdrawal from the Izium region, which left behind a significant number of pro-Russian civilians under deadly threats from fascist 'filtration' groups, will be the catalyst for a significant escalation on the Russian side.

Finally the gloves are coming off.

Update:

Yves Smith just published an English version of Putin's speech and the decree on mobilization:

Below is the Russian transcript of Putin’s morning speech announcing a partial mobilization of Russia starting September 21. There is apparently not an official English translation up yet, and in any event, the Kremlin site is blocked in the US (which it hasn’t been since early in the Special Military Operation) and even to friendly VPN users in some countries in Asia. So we are also posting a machine translation and will replace it with an official English translation when one becomes available.

We are also posting an English version of the mobilization order, which here and apparently in the original Russian has Item 7 missing. You can theoretically find the order here: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69391.

As you can see, Putin refines and extends his critique of the “collective West” and its campaign to preserve the unipolar order at the expense of the Global South, and its campaign against Russia. Towards the end, Putin states: ...

Posted by b on September 21, 2022 at 7:44 UTC | Permalink

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@KitaySupporter 92,

Meh. If they really did want to end it, they should've moved in with overwhelming force.

It's clear that in February they expected Kiev to fold immediately, like the Afghan government last year. But now it's obvious that it won't happen. So, it's either an overwhelming force (much, much larger than 300k), or more of the same, a kilometer/day advance, at best.

But hey, maybe a kilometer/day advance is the plan? Who knows. It would seem weird, though...

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Sep 21 2022 12:17 utc | 101

I thought it was strange Putin’s speech did not emphasize that the war is between Russia and NATO now to a greater degree. I took that as a sign that he doesn’t want to escalate the war to Poland or Latvia or anywhere else

Posted by: GoFast | Sep 21 2022 12:22 utc | 102

From a high level view russia has accomplished a lot with a 1 to 3 disadvantage. Kharkov was the only mistake and basically immediately after that fiasco changes the situation dramatically in its favor, legally.

We do need to acknowledge that NATO billions was a game changer but today's partial mobilization and referenda should allow the front line to be moved significantly, ie kharkov, nikolaev and odessa

Posted by: Ct | Sep 21 2022 12:25 utc | 103

rk@76.....have a heart mate.....they are Brits after all, inferior little people forever trying to punch above their waist ....Excell at killing under armed natives the world over, stole the wealth and lives of millions.....and they still live in a shit hole.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 21 2022 12:31 utc | 104

From Yves site article on PPs speech, comment:

omething possibly relevant from Putin’s yesterday meeting with managers of defense industry:

I would like to remind you in this context that this year I have resolved to deliver additional weapons and equipment to the armed forces and, consequently, to allocate funds for acquisition and maintenance. Production capacities must be increased and, if necessary, modernised at several defence enterprises. Much has been done to attain this goal.

For example, the following decisions were taken to ensure the uninterrupted production and repair of weapons and equipment: contract and pre-contract procedures have been simplified considerably, the timeframe for signing state contracts with a sole provider and the relevant pricing procedure have been reduced, and the amount of prepayment has been increased.

I would like to note that Promsvyazbank has reaffirmed the terms for low-interest loans for the pre-schedule delivery of weapons. In addition, labour laws have been amended to allow the heads of defence enterprises and design bureaus to authorise overtime pay for designers, engineers and workers.

Measures have been taken in connection with manufacturing optimisation. I will not list them now because all of you are well aware of them. This has been done on your recommendation.

Defence industry organisations must ensure the provision of the necessary weapons, equipment and munitions to the armed forces as soon as possible.

We must also ensure the timely and full provision of modern Russian-made components, parts, units and materials to defence industry companies. The defence industry is the sphere where all import substitution programmes must be implemented without fail. This may not be so important or even necessary in other areas, because we do not need one hundred percent import substitution. But we must do it in this area. Therefore, production capacities must be increased without delay, equipment must be used to the fullest, technological cycles must be streamlined, and production deadlines must be reduced without hurting quality.

It seems that also the industry is being mobilized in very practical terms.

Reply ↓
Sibiryak
September 21, 2022 at 6:30 am
industry is being mobilized in very practical terms

Good point. Putin touched on that topic in his speech:

…the Executive Order on partial mobilisation also stipulates additional measures for the fulfilment of the state defence order. The heads of defence industry enterprises will be directly responsible for attaining the goals of increasing the production of weapons and military equipment and using additional production facilities for this purpose. At the same time, the Government must address without any delay all aspects of material, resource and financial support for our defence enterprises.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 12:34 utc | 105

Posted by: GoFast | Sep 21 2022 12:22 utc | 101

Obviously there is no need or willingness to 'escalate' because whatever Nato throws to fight in Ukraine is inherently fighting disadvantaged. And Nato is not really not that strong, especially fighting a "proxy war" against a "full fledged war". There is a reason why Nato doesn't provide fighter jets or those vaunted A-10 CAS planes, they don't want to see them shot down and humiliated.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 21 2022 12:34 utc | 106

The news out of the German Economic Ministry is catastrophic. Inflation is doubling all costs. Exports will likely end. It's bad.

Something will happen soon, because NATO will fracture under this economic misery. Smart move for Russia to prepare for all events. They have time as an ally, but their enemies don't, which is dangerous.

Posted by: seer | Sep 21 2022 12:34 utc | 107

Today I wrote comment on article where writter claimed that Putin showed weaknes, mobilizing 300.000 from reserve....
In my state MSM.
My comment did not show up, because we are in NATO.....
Why weaknes?
Because Russian army is not in condition in conventional warfare to defeat Ukrainian army, supported with everything west is having?
In conventional sphere, involving only ukie soldiers? ( With support of western instructors )
It is difficult to me to understand that kind of stup*dity...
So, Russian army should have super natural abilitty to defeat NATO with 150.000 soldiers?

Are you aware what are some people thinking?

Posted by: preseren3 | Sep 21 2022 12:38 utc | 108

A different narrative is that the Russian troops intentionally withdrew from the region to raise Russian calls for an escalation of the war.

This is worded a little awkwardly, b, can you help clarify it? Are you suggesting that Russia withdrew from Kharkiv oblast in order to simulate a defeat, so that societal support for mobilization would grow? i.e. a Gulf of Tonkin move, but instead of opportunistically playing up panicky and inaccurate field reports, fully planned and including the sacrifice of hundreds of soldiers and hundreds of pieces of heavy equipment?

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 21 2022 12:41 utc | 109

Will this mean that the criminal code of the RF would supercede that of DPR and LPR.
That would mean the abolition of the death penalty and possibly the reprieve of those comdemned

Posted by: Arwyn Thomas | Sep 21 2022 12:42 utc | 110

Finally. At long last.
This should have happened over 6 months ago.
The bridges over the Dnieper should have been dropped on Day One. Ditto the rail network, electricity grid, telecommunications, command centres. People like Johnson and Schulz should not have been free to flit in and out of Kiev like tourists to pose with Elensky.
If this had been done, many Russian and Allied soldiers who are now dead would still be alive. Many civilians who are still being murdered in the Donbas would now be safe. Staged atrocities like Bucha involving the murders of pro Russian Ukrainians would not have taken place. Ms. Dugin would not have been blown up by a terrorist car bomb in Moscow.
Instead, the proxy Kiev Nazis and their western handlers were given ample time and endless opportunities to cause mischief. To send thousands of troops abroad to be trained in western countries. With tens of billions of new weapons being poured into the country to prolong the war, with operations planned and executed by NATO staff officers with NATO weapons based on intelligence supplied by NATO. With NATO killing Russians and bragging about it afterwards. With thousands of NATO special forces and western mercenaries on the ground. Deliberately targeting Russian civilians and infrastructure in Russia itself. With a wide ranging terrorist campaign inside Ukraine and Russia itself.

Conduct of the war to date amounts to criminal negligence. Of course there are other considerations which explain Russian actions - concern for domestic and international opinion, even an unrealistic hope of negotiating a diplomatic solution with the Kiev puppet regime. But there is no substitute for a swift and overwhelming victory. Everything else is just a side issue.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 21 2022 12:44 utc | 111

@91

Yes. The US reaction to 9/11 was all emotion, hurt fury if you like, rather than rational thought which lead to 20 years of abject failure in Afghanistan. The result of being goaded into something never ends well. The UK was just dog like obedience.

The initial objective to capture Kiev and take Ukraine in three or four days ended in failure. This was then rationalised into occupying the breakaway territories and opening a land bridge to Crimea. The Karkhov offensive by the Ukrainians was a humiliating set back to this. Putin is now being goaded into escalation and the hastily reconvened referendums to try and shore up the Ukraine operation. The mobilisation is more focused on poorer and ethnic regions - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have informed their citizens that they will face criminal charges if they mobilise to fight in Ukraine.

Every action is a reaction to events, rather than a series of planned responses. It is done from a position of weakness not strength.

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 12:45 utc | 112

@"85" dfg
"2 planes, 3 buildings".
No planes, 7 buildings. Fixed it for you.

Posted by: Alejo | Sep 21 2022 12:47 utc | 113

Today the BBC gang raped the truth by stating brazenly that Russia's warning that Nato's threat to use tactical miminukes against RF will be met with a nuclear response. Nato was the aggressor in East Ukraine from 2014. .nato is now threatening to do a Beirut on RF now.


Naked poker lies. The west has no more clothes to remove.

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 21 2022 12:47 utc | 114

...and for that the new “democratic” Ukraine has sent tanks, artillery and warplanes against them [Donbass]...
Posted by: S | Sep 21 2022 10:03 utc | 50

I have come to believe that the Ukronazi ideology has an element of Hitler's Lebensaum, where the inferior Slavs have no right to fertile land that good German (Galician) farmers could put to better use. I heard one of them urge the Russian-Ukrainian Slavs to "go back to Russia." After all, the Motherland of Nazis, Galicia, is the poorest oblast of poor Ukraine.

Posted by: Tedder | Sep 21 2022 12:50 utc | 115

@António Ferrão | Sep 21 2022 9:51 utc | 42

Only this passage is enough to tell anybody everything about authors knowledge in geography, military, even morale.

But not only is Russia losing vast territories in the Kharkiv region, which are essential for controlling Moscow's positions in the independence republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, in the Donbass, but it is also seeing Ukrainian artillery succeed, with increasing insistence. , scourge the city of Donetsk, daily, with American and French long-range rocket launchers, thanks to the repositioning of these units in the areas now reconquered, causing dozens of civilian casualties in the capital of that pro-Russian republic, which Moscow considers to be a treat- war crimes because these shots are aimed only at civilian areas in the center of the city.

Anything he said about the theme is only informational about him, but not worthy of reading about actual theme.

Posted by: ldragon | Sep 21 2022 12:52 utc | 116

@113

NATO has no need or interest in using tactical nukes. NATO hasn’t even committed it’s more advanced or heavier conventional weapons, or tanks or aircraft, believing that 25 year old HIMARS are sufficient to do the job - which based on what we have seen so far is correct. That being the case, why would they escalate to tactical nukes? There is zero logic in that scenario.

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 12:55 utc | 117

The West has not backed down towards de-escalation one bit. They have continually escalated and escalated some more. With 300K more troops, Russia will quickly take the Donbas. After the Donbas is 100% under the control of Russia, the "they" of Daniel 7:5 will tell the Russian Bear to arise and devour much flesh.

The much flesh does not result from the process of taking the Donbas. Most likely it will be the destruction of NATO starting with the head of the NATO snake which is the USA.

When it looks like Russia is just about to take the remaining of Donetsk, take a long vacation outside of the USA. It will become very dangerous to remain there after that point. All that remain within Babylon USA after the initial first nuclear strike will be destroyed (Jeremiah 50).

Posted by: young | Sep 21 2022 12:58 utc | 118

Brasil President Jahir Bolsonaro, yesterday in th 77th UN General Assembly:

Apoiamos todos os esforços para reduzir os impactos econômicos desta crise. Mas não acreditamos que o melhor caminho seja a adoção de sanções unilaterais e seletivas, contrárias ao Direito Internacional. Essas medidas têm prejudicado a retomada da economia e afetado direitos humanos de populações vulneráveis, inclusive em países da própria Europa. /em>

Valor — São Paulo 20/09/2022 11h21

Posted by: António Ferrão | Sep 21 2022 12:59 utc | 119

@Tom UK #111, agreed. I would add that both sides are in a reactive mode. The west has been tailoring its support packages to the range of "keep Ukraine in the game" to "give Ukraine a slight edge" based on theater-level developments. This mobilization order will likely cause the west to react by giving Ukraine additional capabilities and more weapons than previously planned. I predict, with low confidence due to specificity but medium confidence directionally:

- New materiel aid package through US Congress
- Defense Production Act invoked to increase production of key munitions (GMLRS, 155mm shells)
- US to provide ATACMS SRBMs
- US to quietly remove restriction on using US weapons systems against military targets inside (properly) RF territory
- US to start supplying M109 self-propelled howitzers in significant quantity via lend-lease

And Ukraine, which has mobilized only a small percentage of its fighting-age men, will likely have a large round of conscription of its own.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 21 2022 12:59 utc | 120

I'm better off keeping to myself, preparing for disaster and trying to get out of here.

Posted by: Michigan Dude | Sep 21 2022 11:57 utc | 90

A favorite quote of mine, believed to be from the indomitable Chris Hedges, "I don't fight fascists because I think I can win, I fight fascists because they are fascists."

Posted by: Tedder | Sep 21 2022 13:00 utc | 121

Following situation map daily, I don't see much "tripple seven" activities, nor HIMARS...
"tripple seven" according to Russian media are halved by Iranian drones.
HIMARS not yet, because ukies are only hidding them....
But they will come out, if nor earier, for referendums.
And hen they will be "well hailed"...

Posted by: preseren3 | Sep 21 2022 13:06 utc | 122

US has attempted to create "political isolation". Attempts to use the fake Bucha, Izyum etc. graves failed outside the already western vassalage states. They have also failed on their offensives on the ground, despite Ukrainians being "free, someone else's cannon fodder".

The only other way to create "political isolation" is to use a nuke, tell everyone that the other guy did it and hope to get away with it. US has balled the idea for many years of "mini tactical nukes" which they originally planned in using against Iran sometime in 2015-2017. This is precisely why they are jaw boning of "tactical nukes" every day now.

Putin today said that it's in fact Nato officials who have been balling the idea of using them in Ukraine. That is the sign of weakness.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 21 2022 13:10 utc | 123

In response to Altai@32,

No formal request for assistance from CSTO was submitted by Armenia, and they'll never do it over border skirmishes or contested territories, because the moment they do it'll be a point of no return in their relations with the West and their situation with Azerbaijan will be out of their hands to be resolved by committee. Until there's a serious threat to Armenian statehood or stability, Armenian politicos will only use the CSTO as a narrative device for domestic politics and as a wild card in multi-vector foreign relations. It's like having a gun for home defense and making sure everyone knows about it, using it as a conversation starter, getting favors from gun retailers by making them think you're looking for a replacement, but knowing that you have it and can depend on it in case you actually need it.

As to the topic at hand, I'll second whoever said that the timing for this has to do with China/India. Due to the important economic component of this SMO, I believe Russia absolutely needed to know that China/India would be on-side before they took any decision, which I'm sure would entail certain mutually acceptable restrictions. Whatever the agreement is, it could very well have been limited to using military means to force a negotiated settlement at the start of the year, whereas now when Russia has demonstrated that any such a possibility has been thoroughly rejected by Ukraine's Western sponsors, her strategic partners have given a green light to escalate to the next level, potentially to push through a military settlement. I wouldn't be surprised if certain pro-Russian patriots would view such a view as insulting to Russian sovereignty and independence, but I personally think that it's the responsible way of conducting foreign policy, particularly regarding decisions which have a global impact, even if a more autocratic approach might seem more expedient.

Posted by: Skiffer | Sep 21 2022 13:11 utc | 124

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Sep 21 2022 12:17 utc | 100

This is after USD 100 billion aids to Ukraine from NATO/US and through heavy fortification through Ukraine lands. Russia has done a difficult job well, I would surmise.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Sep 21 2022 13:12 utc | 125

close italics tag

Posted by: too scents | Sep 21 2022 13:13 utc | 126

I am no military analyst yet this fact might just qualify my following statement. If Russia is to launch an offensive operation then doing it in the winter makes sense given that the anti Russia sanctions will have had time to prove these very sanctions have done more harm to those employing them and a cold winter will be too much for present NATO member governments to bear. Of coarse the sanctions have had an impact on Russia to some degree but anyone who remembers the Nazi Germany Eastern Front offensive and how it ended will understand my point. The sooner Russia achieves it's goals the better off Ukraine will be in relation to the massive reconstruction that will take place minus current Wall Street-City of London finanacier parlor games.

Posted by: wt baker | Sep 21 2022 13:14 utc | 127

Thanks b for your thorough insights.

This is yet another escalation which is disappointing but which was bound to happen given the utter reckless and bellicose behavior of the US and it's western satellites depraved of both sanity and morality. I can only hope that the current reckless hubristic EU leadership is forcefully removed from power in the coming months and replaced by realists that put the wellbeing of their citizens first.

Posted by: xor | Sep 21 2022 13:18 utc | 128

"If it's War they want, it's WAR they'll get!"

Ha, sorry, that quote leapt to mind. The Russian military aren't cartoonish bad guys, and Ukraine isn't being lead by a Bruce Willis, with (Ukrainian born but Russian speaking) Milla Jovovich at his side. So I expect things to go differently than in the film the clip below is from.

I have to wonder, will Zelenskyy continue to order his military to stay on the attack, and will Russia, instead of really ramping up their advances within territory said to be under Ukrainian control, choose to keep provoking Ukraine to send out their military from their defensive positions, into the open and on the attack.

Afaik a great way to "season" troops new to the battlefield is to keep them within ones defensive lines, and to have them experience combat from within fortified defenses. Once bloodied but not panicked by having been bombed and shot at, they generally can be depended on to act in a steadier fashion when part of offensive advances.

I also think that a great way to introduce these reserves to the conflict is to first filter them through the areas recovered from Ukrainian control. Let them hear from the civilians there, and let them thus be fortified by knowing the rightness of their cause.

But what do I know, with no experience at all of matters military.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiqUxV5YsQM

Posted by: Babel-17 | Sep 21 2022 13:20 utc | 129

Once the West's 'Christians' (cough cough) respond in kind to Putin's threats then the lid of WWIII's Pandora's Box will be flung wide open. The only factor I can think of which might lower the temperature would be IF sane Pentagon bigwigs spell out the potential downside of a Russia vs West conflict - by pointing out that no-one will win WWIII.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 21 2022 13:21 utc | 130

Closing italics?

Posted by: xor | Sep 21 2022 13:22 utc | 131

Mao Cheng Ji | Sep 21 2022 12:17 utc | 100

"it's either an overwhelming force (much, much larger than 300k), or more of the same, a kilometer/day advance, at best."

Isn't it 3 times larger than the current force? AFAIK, Russia doesn't want the whole of Ukraine, the western part hates them. Its original ask was autonomy for the Donbass, but Ukraine's response meant they now probably want the entire Black Sea coast and a land bridge to Transnistria. Oh, and Snake Island back;-).

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 21 2022 13:26 utc | 132

I'm better off keeping to myself, preparing for disaster and trying to get out of here.

Posted by: Michigan Dude | Sep 21 2022 11:57 utc | 90

A favorite quote of mine, believed to be from the indomitable Chris Hedges, "I don't fight fascists because I think I can win, I fight fascists because they are fascists."

Posted by: Tedder | Sep 21 2022 13:00 utc | 120

I agree, but I can't do it all by myself.

Posted by: Michigan Dude | Sep 21 2022 13:27 utc | 133

IF sane Pentagon bigwigs spell out the potential downside of a Russia vs West conflict - by pointing out that no-one will win WWIII.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 21 2022 13:21 utc | 129

Actually nato just said today that they would win a nuclear war against Russia. Stoly said it.
And that Russian army is crap.

Posted by: rk | Sep 21 2022 13:28 utc | 134

If Nato uses nuke in Ukraine as a false flag attempt, Russia might have no other chance than directly nuke Washington and London as they would have to expect that Nato will use it as an excuse to nuke Peterburg and Moscow. You see now the direction and velocity where things are going?

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 21 2022 13:30 utc | 135

tomuk is shitoda?
them/they are talking to each other but it's the same stupid

Posted by: rk | Sep 21 2022 13:31 utc | 136

Xi Jinping has ordered the army to focus on preparing for combat, does he know something we don't?

https://ria.ru/20220921/kitay-1818433385.html

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Sep 21 2022 13:32 utc | 137

It is profoundly worrying as an inhabitant of the West that Western military assessors do not seem to realise that Russia is destroying large quantities of Western weapons from their depleted arsenals. They may not have much left to escalate with apart from air power. It will be interesting to see how sota US aircraft fare against Russian air defences.

Posted by: Pancho Plail | Sep 21 2022 13:34 utc | 138

@KitaySupporter 124

Well done or not, it doesn't matter.
Why Kiev is not folding up, it doesn't matter. The fact is, it's not collapsing.

My only point was that 300k is a half-assed escalation. Not a decisive move; far from it.

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Sep 21 2022 13:35 utc | 139

From IntelSlava

🇷🇺 What will Russia get after the referendum?

▫️Russia will add 5 to 6 million new citizens.

▫️In the future, when refugees begin to return, the total population of the new regions may grow to 8-9 million people.

The area of ​​the liberated territories where the referendums will be held is about 113,000 square kilometers.

▫️In terms of area, this is larger than Bulgaria, Cuba or South Korea.

▫️The population is larger than Belgium, Belarus, Israel or Austria.

Posted by: Down South | Sep 21 2022 13:39 utc | 140

Russia moving from assault force to defensive force.
They will need to push Ukraine army back - way back.
They will need to make life in Ukraine difficult, uncomfortable.
Then they will need to hold tight.
US ensures that there can be no negotiations - not sure they intend.

Cant see how there can be secure referendums, but is a formality at this point - time to talk about it later.

Posted by: jared | Sep 21 2022 13:39 utc | 141

An earlier poster noted that Shoigu mentions specifically US and NATO command centers in country as well as satellites providing targeting intel etc. If this firm warning gets acted on....
Another thing that struck me is how utterly transparent the war effort is. By that I mean how obvious it is that the US and its attack poodles are funding, arming and directing the show...

Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 21 2022 13:41 utc | 142

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 11:15 utc | 74

Agreed. The people of those areas [breakaway 404 oblasts] should be allowed to choose their path and be seen to be doing so.

I would extent this sentiment to the whole of Ukraine and its people.

You omit the fact the entirety of 404 had the opportunity to express their "sentiment" in the 2014 elections and they elected a government that was other than that wanted by the US. The US therefore provoked a "Fuck the EU" coup which gave the citizens of 404 the government desired by the US.

For the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a comedian who portrayed a fictional president of Ukraine in the comedy television series Servant of the People, was elected on a "peace" platform; rapprochement with RF and accommodation of the significant proportion of Ukraine who are Russian speakers.

On Zelenskyy's election this program was abandoned under pressure from the 5% of the population aligned with the ultra right wing AZOV paramilitary. Rapprochement with the RF was not in the interests of the US.

Zelenskyy’s leadership style is also viewed negatively with a majority of Ukrainians believing he lacks the skills required to be president such as professional experience, a moral compass, and strength of character. Officials are fired and hired frequently and for opaque reasons, leaving people confused as to how the country is being run. Concerns about poverty are growing with one-quarter of the population reporting worsening household finances.
SOURCE:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/11/ukraine-still-backs-zelenskyy-despite-slow-progress

Your lack of knowledge of the recent history of 404 precludes you from recognizing that the citizens of the Ukraine have repeatedly engaged in the democratic process and the outcomes of these elections (which were monitored and approved by 3rd parties) have been repeatedly thwarted because they do not accord with the interests of the "Empire of Chaos."

It has been reported of Zelenskyy that:
Many of his close advisors are showbusiness people who are adept at creating fictional realities
SOURCE:
Ibid

These "ficciones" are in the process of bringing the world nuclear conflict. Your failure to recognize and acknowledge historical reality imperils your own future and that of any loved ones. You are a sheep being led to slaughter.

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 21 2022 13:44 utc | 143

From Pepe's Telegram, what RF oblasts in Ukraine will look like on the map:
https://imgur.com/a/hdTXBGa

Hmmm... maybe retreat from Karkhov area was in preparation for the referendum.

Next phase will be the next line of oblasts north of the upcoming ones including Odessa to the West. Then the territorial aspect will probably be done but of course the geopolitical aspect will continue for years to come. The West is going to convulse this winter, clearly, so it remains to be seen what it looks like come April 2023.

Will bifurcation into two main blocs be established and remain for years to come with the West going full-bore Great Reset and the East/Eurasia following another path, or will bifurcation be prelude to a grand world wide conflict followed by epic world wide collapse followed by Brave New World Wide post nation state resolution?

Or: if there really IS a fight about that then perhaps it's simply between two versions of New World Order: a multipolar (alliance of sovereign states) or unipolar (techno-fascist credit cartel money driven). My suspicion is that it will be both with the latter gradually infesting and taking over yet again as credit cartels are wont to do.

(Time will tell, though most of us won't be around to see how it all plays out!)

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 13:44 utc | 144

@YetAnotherAnon 131

I don't know if it's true, but if indeed Russia only wants some parts of it -- it still doesn't matter.

Because for as long as the parts Russia doesn't want keep shooting into the parts Russia does want, the war is on.

Russia will have no choice but to take the whole thing. Or, conceivably, take most of it, and divide the rest between Poland, Hungary, and Romania...

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Sep 21 2022 13:44 utc | 145

Reply to: rk | Sep 21 2022 13:28

"Actually nato just said today that they would win a nuclear
war against Russia. Stoly said it. And that Russian army is crap."

"STOLY" is exquisite moniker for this f*cktard. But I've got a better one: "STOOLY"!
Did they [he] REALLY say that? WHERE?

Posted by: LongCovid | Sep 21 2022 13:51 utc | 146

Nobody gives an f about the African perspective

Posted by: Walter | Sep 21 2022 13:51 utc | 147

Idragon@115

Dude! You seriously need some remedial geography lessons. The abandoned territories in the Kharkov region are so far away from the Donbass that even the WWI German Big Bertha cannon which shelled Paris could not have attained that distance. You must be a fellow American. With rather few exceptions, Americans have long been deliberately dumbed-down on geographical understanding.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 21 2022 13:54 utc | 148

One thing that should be clear now is that Putin is not interested in Imperial acquisitions. He has now set geographical limits to his ambitions, the only caveat being an suitable defence one around the territory. US involvement, in particular any up-armouring, will be countered by an appropriate increase in the defence zone perimeter.

Posted by: Pancho Plail | Sep 21 2022 13:55 utc | 149

Skiffer@123

Good posting.

Yes, it's highly likely that Russia's leadership wanted one on one dialogs with their co-peers in Beijing and Delhi. A veritable Bismarckian statesman, V.V. Putin is amazingly careful in making major moves such as the 300,000 man mobilization. Coordinate that development with the well-arranged referendums in the four formerly Ukraine SSR oblasts and all the pieces are now in place for a form of warfare that even with conventional "assistance" from the Natostani regimes, the Ukies will have little more chance than the proverbial snowball in hell to hold off Russia's re-acquisition of those ethnic Russian regions which were misplaced during the Bolshevik and Soviet eras on an administrative basis within Ukraine SSR.

Who would have possibly reckoned decades ago that the connivers in City of London and Wall $treet would have pulled off some stunt like the Maidan coup d' etat. One cannot imagine any form of chicanery that would not be employed by Perfidious Albion and Uncle Shmuel.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 21 2022 14:07 utc | 150

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 11:30 utc | 80

Great powers have choices. If they are continually being ‘forced’ into choices by others then they are not great powers. They are weak.

By your own definition your "United Kingdom" is not a great power. The "choices" available to it are determined by the US. By your calculus the UK is weak.

Russia has made choices and will continue to make choices which reflect its own interests, not those of Tom UK, or your PM and her government. You should reflect on the fact the pride of the RN near sank at the dock and, on its first excursion away from the dock, was forced to return due to the need to replace a mainshaft. This ineffective hole in the water into which the UK pours money lacks its fighter contingent as the UK cannot afford the planes.

A country which builds aircraft carriers and cannot afford the aircraft to be carried is beyond being weak. It compensates by having the US Marine Corp fly its aircraft off its ineffective dry docked carriers. I suggest to you that such a country is not a real country but is a colony of its former colony.

If the same country promises another £2.3 billion to Ukraine (two year total of £4.6 billion) while delivering tax cuts of £30 billion and being unable to ensure the warmth of its citizens, or the closure of most of its productive firms, then it is not even a viable colony. It is a laughing stock.

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 21 2022 14:13 utc | 151

@aristodemos | Sep 21 2022 13:54 utc | 147

You completely miss the address. I was citing another post. Go back on reading

Posted by: ldragon | Sep 21 2022 14:13 utc | 152

Do Russian men flee conscription?
.
According to Internet data, after the announcement of partial mobilization, the demand for one-way flights, i.e. trips without a return flight, is growing rapidly in Russia. Statistics from Google Trends show a spike in searches for Aviasales, the most popular Russian website for buying flights. Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul and Yerevan in Armenia - both destinations that allow Russians visa-free entry - sold out on Wednesday, according to Aviasales.
According to The Insider, reports are circulating on social media that Russian Railways and Aeroflot are no longer selling tickets to men between the ages of 18 and 65. Both companies had previously assured that there were no restrictions on the sale of tickets. There is also no official instruction to only allow men with a corresponding certificate to travel. However, according to the report, men at the land borders with Finland and Georgia are refused exit. Women, on the other hand, were allowed to cross the border.
.
Do Russian men flee conscription?
.
A rumor or fact?

Posted by: Mo3 | Sep 21 2022 14:14 utc | 153

@Mo3 | Sep 21 2022 14:14 utc | 152

A rumor or fact?
Obviously, if you don't know the answer you are spreading rumors.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 21 2022 14:16 utc | 154

Both sides agree that if Elenski wins, Eltsin's spirit will control Russia.

Posted by: Peacenik | Sep 21 2022 14:17 utc | 155

WtBaker@126

Your perceptions of the coming season are spot-on. For centuries now, General Winter has been Russia's most potent weapon. As the EU/Natostani people hunger and freeze in the dark to the point where food riots and similar demonstrations of discontent rattle the cages of the puppet regimes there; recently mobilized and re-trained Russian forces will at long last not be fighting at a one to three numerical disadvantage.

Imagine the chagrin of those poor, deluded Ukie conscripts huddled in their concrete-bolstered entrenchments in the Donbass. Kiev has already been begging Natostan for winter gear for their ill-trained and under-equipped nudniks. The intelligent ones will kill off their backstabber "nationalists" and officers who have been murdering those who would surrender in the face of hopeless situations. I mourn the fate of those poor guys who are viewed by the Kiev regime as mere "cannon fodder". In their own personal defense they must act against their hired oppressors.

Nasty surprises may also be in the offing for those U$$A and Natostani "advisors" who are actually running from behind the scenes, the Ukrainian military. Russian intel knows precisely where many of their command posts are located. With the gloves coming off, the RU disposal of a nest of Academi/Blackwater mercenaries was just their first move in that imposition of reality upon the arrogant colonialists.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 21 2022 14:20 utc | 156

@135
they do seem to work in tandem. Either Tom UK and Yenwoda are the same person, or they are part of the same team. Anyhow, annoying like buzzing flies in your dining room. They make the silliest statements with such self-assurance that one knows discussion will be hopeless.
On another level, we certainly are living in exciting but dangerous times. The Russian bear has shown one of its claws and it remains to be seen if Emperor NATO wears anything more than La Perla underwear...

Posted by: Anthony | Sep 21 2022 14:20 utc | 157

@142 These "ficciones" are in the process of bringing the world nuclear conflict. Your failure to recognize and acknowledge historical reality imperils your own future and that of any loved ones. You are a sheep being led to slaughter.

The only one threatening the world with nuclear weapons right now is Russia. Or did I miss the speech by Biden threatening to nuke countries unless they did what he wanted? Which is pretty much what Putin said this morning. And given I live in one of the ‘target’ countries, I’m not inclined to be overly happy at these ‘threats’. Which I think is a reasonable point of view is it not?

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 14:26 utc | 158

Re Shoigu and 'Russia at war with collective west'. According to John Helmer this would include the IAEA...

The IAEA Goes To War..

http://johnhelmer.org/the-international-atomic-energy-agency-goes-to-war-gorilla-radio-goes-nuclear/

"Last week the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors voted to go to war with Russia..."

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 21 2022 14:26 utc | 159

Biden Delivers Remarks before the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly

Obviously relevant to the events in Ukraine Russia.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 21 2022 14:29 utc | 160

My only point was that 300k is a half-assed escalation. Not a decisive move; far from it.

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Sep 21 2022 13:35 utc | 138
.
You forgot one thing!
These 300,000 will be given contract status, please listen closely to Putin's statement!
Contract jams!
Russia has far more soldiers under arms than these 300,000!
Only without contract status may they not be used abroad (which these areas STILL are).
Reminder : Putin has carried out 3 maneuvers with thousands of soldiers and technology inland during ongoing SMO !!
Russia has about 850,000 soldiers constantly active !!!
So what happens after these referendums is another question, since Russia has to cover a lot of drones. Also thanks to NATO, which ensures appropriate reactions in these neighboring countries, Finland is still one of the smaller problems!

Posted by: Mo3 | Sep 21 2022 14:30 utc | 161

Thanks for the post, b. I found Putin’s speech especially effective and inspiring, although I’m not Russian. But his meaningful use of logic, references to historical legacy in Europe, I found compelling. Quite the contrast to the hysteria, abusive language, and pyrotechnics that we are used to in the so-called West when the subject is raised.

To all those accusing Russia of pushing the world towards WWIII or global war: please read this post from the US Navy that I posted earlier in the Week in Review thread.

From Sept. 14
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3158553/uss-kearsarge-lhd-3-and-uss-gunston-hall-lsd-44-arrive-in-poland/

The Kearsarge is the first ship of the WASP class to take part in international training in the Baltic in at least two decades. (Per Associated Press)

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 21 2022 14:36 utc | 162

From Pepe's Telegram, what RF oblasts in Ukraine will look like on the map: https://imgur.com/a/hdTXBGa

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 13:44 utc | 143

The problem with these boundaries is there are no firm geographic features just fields, small towns and forests. The previously announced strategy of sabotage and terror by Ukraine + Operation Gladio forces will be very difficult to stop and will require extensive resources.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 21 2022 14:38 utc | 163

They could just us 50 000 in the Donbass and the other 250 000 on kiev. That would speed it up

Posted by: OhhCanada | Sep 21 2022 14:39 utc | 164

It's important Putin stresses to the crazies in the 'west' that Russia is not bluffing vis a vis its determination to preserve its nation-hood at all costs because the 'west' is reckless, arrogant and batshit crazy. The 'west' at the end of its hegemonic world domination has no brakes or off-ramp to its mindless aggression, and therefore threatens human survival on this planet.

Intelligence has nothing on ignorance.

Posted by: gottlieb | Sep 21 2022 14:42 utc | 165

@161 To all those accusing Russia of pushing the world towards WWIII or global war: please read this post from the US Navy that I posted earlier in the Week in Review thread.

Well, first, once a country starts launching military operations in another country, including an attack on its capital, then, yes, people will start accusing that country of pushing the world towards war. I mean, it’s not an act of peace is it?

In other news, the US Navy sends a ship. Somehow, not really seeing an equivalence here. Are the US navy not permitted to send a ship into Polish waters? Is that not a matter for Poland in this multi-polar world we are keen on?

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 14:45 utc | 166

Lol the troll army is back after their official day off to ‘mourn’ and have some cobbled together scripts to push🤪

Anyway right from the horses mouth - apologies if already posted:

“THIS IS NOT A BLUFF”

Putins broadcast with excellent English subtitles
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J7QqSYBUhmY

Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 21 2022 14:46 utc | 167

Intel Slava Z (telegram)
Biden's upcoming UN General Assembly speech is being rewritten at the last minute after Putin's statements - Politico, citing White House aides

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 21 2022 14:50 utc | 168

The West is shitting itself for good reason. 300,000 troops is a real "game changer." Throw in the economic catastrophe unfolding in Europe with no end in sight and you can see how this war will destroy the regimes that have brought us here. The hysterics in the media make me laugh. This is a moment for celebration.

Posted by: Ivan | Sep 21 2022 14:52 utc | 169

Europe is definitely not safe any more. The collective west cannot negotiate. They will never do. That having said, the conflict can only escalate. My fear is not a nuclear war. They will not do that. Putin will, despite all the warnings (same goes for China), not attack US soil.
It will be once again a destructive war on whole Central/Western Europe. My prediction is, Europe is totally in ruins in 5-10 years and the US will bring chocolate. I currently have no other belief other than fatalism.

Posted by: Tapio | Sep 21 2022 14:54 utc | 170

It could be that the outbreaks in Central Asia and the Caucasus are entirely unrelated to the SMO in Ukraine. On the other hand it is most likely that the US is deploying terrorist groups throughout Eurasia in a cynical and criminal campaign to prevent the peaceful development that is needed and desired.
This is a policy borrowed from Israel whose entire history is one of seeking war as a means of expansion and consolidation. Israel has turned down every attempt ever made to make peace with its neighbours. whenever peace has seemed possible it has launched provocations in order to justify war. This is exactly what the United States is doing.

Valery Kulikov in NEO explains what is happening in Tajikistan:
"....Tajik military forces used civilians as human shields during the armed incident on the border, as well as MLRS and aircraft. It was noted that on the Tajik side, individuals in unidentified uniforms and bearing no signs of designation belonging to any armed forces participated in the clashes.

"Astonishingly, these scenes of conflict are reminiscent of the current events in Ukraine, where soldiers of the Kyiv regime are also actively using similar tactics to “cover up” their criminal actions under the protective shield as “peaceful citizens” which the AFU militants were taught by “curators” and instructors from the United States, including the “unknown uniforms” issued by the United States under the guise of “aid” not only to Ukraine.

"And in this context, the last activity of the United States in Tajikistan and, in general, in the Central Asian region, declared by Washington as a zone of its special interest, involuntarily comes to mind.

"Thus, the other day, the Deputy Assistant Director of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), Anjali Kaur, explicitly stated that the US goal in Central Asia should be to “decouple” the region from the Russian economy. Incidentally, Washington has been actively pursuing the same “decoupling” in Ukraine for the past 8 years, strengthening the position of the Nazi regime in Kyiv and its Russophobic policies. Moreover, USAID is actively involved in this “process.” And recently, the same USAID has significantly expanded its mission in Tajikistan….."
https://journal-neo.org/2022/09/21/who-is-to-blame-for-the-escalation-of-the-situation-on-the-border-between-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan/

Posted by: bevin | Sep 21 2022 14:55 utc | 171

Putin: I’m not bluffing.
West: Haha. He’s bluffing. Why would he say he wasn’t bluffing, if he wasn’t bluffing. You only say you’re not bluffing when you’re bluffing. Right? Ri-ight?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 21 2022 14:55 utc | 172

Re:b hypothesis
Reasonable but we will see. Ditto the thesis that Russia received news that AFU is receiving new long range weapons from the west (this one I see as more likely)

As for the commentary thus far in the thread:
“Taking the gloves off”: zero credibility. Russia has not done anything without planning and thinking it through. 300k reservists being called up is prep and planning, not action. If the referendums go through AND the LDPR and new republics get accepted/annexed into Russia, AND they are attacked, then it seems likely the newly enlarged AFR will be ready.

But another way to look at it is Russia just being prepared. The US and EU have been doubling down at every opportunity. Things are getting more and more tense every day, and it is not clear that Ukraine can continue to sustain the losses it has been, much less the losses associated with its “offensives”

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 21 2022 14:58 utc | 173

bevin | Sep 21 2022 14:55 utc | 170
Thanks. Confirmed what I suspected when I heard skirmishes underway there.
Iran. There’s the tell tale signature of another attempt at color revolution underway right now.

Trawling my “information” sites yesterday… I found this:

”Pentagon opens sweeping review of clandestine psychological operations
The Pentagon has ordered a sweeping audit of how it conducts clandestine information warfare after major social media companies identified and took offline fake accounts suspected of being run by the U.S. military in violation of the platforms’ rules.”
Then on the left hand side panel of twitter I see “Iran” is trending in Australia with 1.3 million tweets.
Bullshit. No one in Australia cares two rotten bananas about Iran. Curious I scroll the #thread.
Ah. I see. Another colour rev is underway. Women are burning their burkas, cutting their hair and “leading” the protests.
Malala of Afghanistan redux. PussyRiot..
Syrian and Arab Spring…
And the NED led influence in full view (for those that know):
Twitter says:
“> The scenes in Iran are astonishing. How far will these protests go?
“> Women revolutions are harder to repress, and not just in Iran. Remember that they represent 50% of the population and are more educated, more sophisticated, more cohesive, yet more repressed than men.
“> Unprecedented scenes in Iran: woman sits on top of utility box and cuts her hair in main square in Kerman to protest death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest by the morality police. People clap their hands and chant “Death to the dictator.”

And for those who’ve read into the art and science of color revs….. flags are an important element.
And so…. Here is a flag for Iran:

”This is the true flag of Iran my boys. Laicism republicanism and free trade social and economic liberties has to come back to Iran”

https://twitter.com/leoasterion/status/1572363401829175298

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 21 2022 15:03 utc | 174

The only one threatening the world with nuclear weapons right now is Russia. Or did I miss the speech by Biden threatening to nuke countries unless they did what he wanted? Which is pretty much what Putin said this morning. And given I live in one of the ‘target’ countries, I’m not inclined to be overly happy at these ‘threats’. Which I think is a reasonable point of view is it not?

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 14:26 utc | 157

Yes, in your own words you 'missed the speech.' He said Russian protocols for using nuclear are clearly enunciated and if necessary will be carried out. If I remember correctly they require nuclear attacks on Rusian Territory to be triggered. In any case, they are never used to initiate only retaliate. Perhaps someone else here better recalls the precise formulation but it's quite clear and he has often mentioned it in response to questions.

The West refuses to negotiate a settlement and also refuses to stop bombarding Donbass civilians many of whom have already become Russian citizens (having been so already 30 years ago) but all of whom will soon be so again in a matter of weeks. Once Ukraine is bombarding Russian citizens rather than (technically) its own citizens Russia's response will be quite different because their own military can directly engage at that point versus only the Donbass militias, but that doesn't mean nuclear strikes on London and NYC necessarily.

That said, Shoigu this morning deliberately referenced the satellites already being used to help target Russian and Donbass military and civilians so quite probably they will become subject to attack soon, though again not by nukes but whatever it is they use to shoot down or jam satellites.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 15:03 utc | 175

@ 165

It’s about escalation - by one side, thereby causing a reaction in self-defence by another side. Quite predictable, really, even for those without military expertise.

If the lower 48 is anything other than the world’s largest aircraft carrier, then its citizens and lawmakers — whoever is responsible for this decision — should get those ships back across the Atlantic, or at least in the open ocean of the Atlantic. And something has to be done about NAVEUR-NAVAF is my guess.

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 21 2022 15:05 utc | 176

Mo3 | Sep 21 2022 14:14 utc | 152
Is that all you got? Handwaving about negative western propaganda. Wow, impressive this do as I say not do as I do kind of mind trick yeah.

Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 13:44 utc | 143
Hmmmm, conjecture, guesswork, assumptions and wild eyed fortune telling. Impressive that you like the sound of your own voice so much. Gerrard will swoon over it.

Thanks awfully old chap. LOL

I do hope I'm playing the children's game right now. Hmmmm.

Posted by: SeanAU | Sep 21 2022 15:07 utc | 177

It will be once again a destructive war on whole Central/Western Europe. My prediction is, Europe is totally in ruins in 5-10 years and the US will bring chocolate. I currently have no other belief other than fatalism.

Posted by: Tapio | Sep 21 2022 14:54 utc | 169

The only good news is that since the Western elites are clearly on board with a 'destroy western polity ASAP' agenda (witness past 2-3 years), it probably won't take as long as you fear. But collapse is surely coming and taking refuge in the hopium that what is ongoing is due to stupidity on the part of western leadership class and better ones might soon be elected is,frankly, delusion at this point.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 15:08 utc | 178

Walter | Sep 21 2022 13:51 utc | 146

« Nobody gives an f about the African perspective »

Westies don’t Russians do

Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 21 2022 15:09 utc | 179

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 21 2022 14:58 utc | 172

If the referendums go through AND the LDPR and new republics get accepted/annexed into Russia, AND they are attacked, then it seems likely the newly enlarged AFR will be ready.


This can all be assumed from the get-go. The referendums WILL happen. Russia WILL accept them into federated union. They WILL be attacked--strike that: RUSSIA will be attacked. What will happen then?

Who knows? But I think we can anticipate that Russia, having been attacked by a foreign power, will decimate that foreign power's governmental centers, infrastructure, power grids, etc.

If this does not work, then Russia WILL use tactical nuclear weapons to clear a buffer zone for its own security.

What will the US do in this scenario? It does not want to engage Russia in conventional warfare, and it knows that if it engages Russia in nuclear warfare then everybody is dead.

The risk is that the sheer desperation, hubris, and blindness of the US leads it to make a final, irrational decision.

Posted by: WJ | Sep 21 2022 15:09 utc | 180

@ Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 14:26 utc | 157

Tom, you seem a reasonable and well informed person.
Is it correct to say that Russia is the only country that has threatened to use of nuclear weapons in context of Ukraine conflict? I dont believe that is correct and wonder why you resort to such a claim.

Leave aside the shelling of the Zaporozia npp, for the moment.

Posted by: jared | Sep 21 2022 15:09 utc | 181

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw_aEfQQzso

Brandon speaks at UN, just starting...

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 15:09 utc | 182

@ Surferket 15.

Taiwan doesn't need nor want to be "liberated".
The democratic system has made the KMT looks obsolete.
The young generation as well as the elder do not want any sort of "unification", and do not want to be taught how to think!

Posted by: iMike | Sep 21 2022 15:10 utc | 183

Vollhonk 10:09 / (52) "The comment sections of the "reknown" German mainstream online newspapers are completely stuffed with NATO-brainwashed comments. It is hard to bear."

It's a mixture of megalomaniac know-it-all (Besserwessi-) arrogance and self-courage. Everyone knows that we are now one step closer to a third world war.

The decisive factor will be whether the Western leaders escalate further, send even more powerful weapons to the Ukraine. The West still has it in its hands to give up the game and at least limit the damage to the Ukraine. Otherwise, there will be a planetary catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.

Now is the last chance for the smarter betterwessis to hit the streets to protest this mad policy of their leaders.

Posted by: Pnyx | Sep 21 2022 15:10 utc | 184

Posted by: Tapio | Sep 21 2022 14:54 utc | 169

Russia is not going to sit there and let the US break it apart. I don't think China will let that happen either.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 21 2022 15:11 utc | 185

tom uk

"the territorial integrity of areas that have been ‘Russian’ for five minutes. Yes, it’s an attempt to stop the West sending the Ukrainians weapons, but it’s unlikely to work and leaves everyone concerned"

No, Russia needs to annihilate only a few places inside engla d to finish this war plotted by england. Especially Mi5 building and white Hall. And chletehanam spy building.

Posted by: Sam | Sep 21 2022 15:13 utc | 186

"... once a country starts launching military operations in another country, including an attack on its capital, then, yes, people will start accusing that country of pushing the world towards war. I mean, it’s not an act of peace is it?.." Tom UK@165

Perhaps you could explain the peaceful motives behind the violent coup in Kiev in 2014 and the subsequent invasion of the Donbas, with all its accompanying atrocities, to complete the violent overthrow of the elected government and to prevent the elections scheduled to take place weeks later?

You MI6 trolls trade on ignorance and stupidity.

You constantly repeat the false narrative that this is a crisis which Russia initiated. It is not: the SMO was a long overdue attempt, taken after every diplomatic solution had been rejected by the US, to restore the rights of the Russian speaking population of Ukraine- the largest single language group in the entire country- and to put an end to the constant assaults on civilians.

As to the nonsense that either the US or the UK has the tiniest interest in the defence of national sovereignty anywhere a mentally deficient child would know better: for the past twenty years both countries, under governments of various parties, have gleefully and unabashedly invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and Yemen. They have sponsored coups and attempted coups throughout Central America and in Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela. They have also devoted enormous resources to subvert successive Brazilian governments and were almost certainly involved in the recent attempted murder of Argentine's Vice President (and candidate for President in the coming election). We await daily to learn what steps they are taking to punish the Colombian people for electing a candidate promising peace and development and an end to the NATO sponsored death squad killings of community representatives.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 21 2022 15:14 utc | 187

Real villain England must be annihilated now-enough of piracy!

Germans are being forced to commit suicide by Americans because England wants usa to bankrupt and destroy Germany and Russia both. As it tried in 1st world war (plotted by Milner group) and 2nd World War.

In 2nd world war plotted by england to make Germany fight Russia and destroy each other, the Soviets lost 27 millions while Russia lost 20 million people but england and usa combined lost only 700 thousand people. All because 3/4th of German army fought on Eastern front and 80 percent of German causality was by the soviets. English, as usual were watching the war from side after putting light to the fuse.
All wars in Europe have been consequence of english plots to make two European nations (usually the two strongest ones) fight each other. Including 1st world war and then 2nd World War.
Gulf war was plotted by witch thatcher, first Iraq war by criminal tony blair- this Syrian war  again by english rats which borne their ugly child ISIS.
Tony Blair, who, when occupied Iraq, claimed that "we will become the British Empire again," meaning that he will occupy the rest of the world too!
Now the british are repackaging their dream as global Britain. Only when wars become unpopular, the english stop taking credit for that and let blame be placed on Jews.
and stupid people including hitler blamed jews while it was all along the english parasites who l destabilise, plot and run the war (but those cowards do not fight in beginning-they come late to feast on already weakened enemy of the day.).

Posted by: Sam | Sep 21 2022 15:15 utc | 188

Brandon speaks at UN, just starting...
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 21 2022 15:09 utc | 181

---

They must inject amphetamines straight into Biden's eyes.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 21 2022 15:17 utc | 189

Walter | Sep 21 2022 13:51 utc | 146

« Nobody gives an f about the African perspective »

Aswered by: Gerrard White | Sep 21 2022 15:09 utc | 178

"Westies don’t Russians do"


Gerrard, do have an example handy?

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Sep 21 2022 15:20 utc | 190

Unfortunately, the western media is now steering the gullible masses towards the fear that Russia may use nuclear weapons since, they claim, it's losing the war. That's the current narrative, and all the media from left to right are marching in lockstep. This smells like a set-up. Let's hope Putin is one step ahead of them. But every moment he waits to end this, gives the West more time to indoctrinate the masses into preparation for tactical nukes, which the neocons have been pushing for years.

Posted by: GioCon | Sep 21 2022 15:20 utc | 191

In serious discussion people stick to the topic and provide sources for their claims. That's how it is done at MoA.
I see here (better, I realise now) that there are at leats two, or three commenters who are not here to honestly discuss but have other goals, or tasks. I think everyone who reads all posts will know who they are. Why don't we just ignore them. Engaging them is a waste of time, because these people have an agenda.

Posted by: JB | Sep 21 2022 15:20 utc | 192

@ Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 14:45 utc | 165

Tom, not meaning to target you posts.

You are of course correct that the US as sovereign nation is "permitted" to sail its ships in Polish waters. Then you must also admit that Russia as sovereign nation would be "permitted" to sink them should it deem it neccesary. "Sovereign" means not needing permission of others. The context would be "might the action be viewed as acutely threatening" - putting a nation in threatened position is most dangerous when that nation has means of response.

There is a nation (et al) involved in the Ukraine conflict which has shown a pattern of seeking to undermine and impose will on others - would that be Russia?

Posted by: jared | Sep 21 2022 15:20 utc | 193

1 } The Escalation is partially because of all the new Nato troops that are now fighting for Ukraine and it time to put an end to it.

2 } And let's not forget that the Ukies and their Nazis, started a terrorist operation, opened up nazi terrorist camps for the brainwashed public to join, got the children involved and began to turn Ukraine into a fascists freak show, starting in 2014 and pushing it on the Entire population of Ukraine, not just Donbass. And the Usual players from the Mid East, EU and USA trained, funded, armed and called - All the shots and still are.

3 } Now , Those of you that wish to live next to place like this - raise your family or just try to Retire - and join their Gang - move to POland, Romania, Estonia, Lithuania,or Germania, UK etc. etc. etc. Russia and Belarus is not interested in having a neighbor like this one. Sabe' ? Paneemyu ?

Posted by: GMC | Sep 21 2022 15:21 utc | 194

@Tom UK

Considering the defective who's PM of your island, it's a bit rich getting sensitive about nuclear sabre rattling.

Posted by: GrimBot | Sep 21 2022 15:23 utc | 195

@174 Putin mentioned ‘territorial integrity’ with regard to nuclear strikes, as opposed to existential threat, which is why there is much comment in the West today. Clearly, it is an attempt to deter weapon supplies, which are already limited because of the nuclear deterrent. The West or NATO are not going to use tactical nukes. They won’t even send tanks or planes. If the Russian line on use of nukes holds, then fine.

Obviously, the West, specifically Europe, would have much preferred to keep shipping in gas than have all this nonsense. But we are where we are after Feb 24, and like it or not, Europe is mad at Putin for causing it. Hence sanctions, weapons and aid. None of this is going to change. The West, Europe pressed Putin not to do invade, but now that he has, everyone has to lie in the bed they made.

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 15:23 utc | 196

@ tomuk

"other news, the US Navy sends a ship. Somehow, not really seeing an equivalence here. Are the US navy not permitted to send a ship into Polish waters? Is that not a matter for Poland in this multi-polar world we are keen on?

Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 21 2022 14:45 utc |

Poland is under English control.

Quote

" According to UP sources close to Zelensky, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.
The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he needs

Posted by: Sam | Sep 21 2022 15:26 utc | 197

@189

Russia offers to africa 300000 tons? Of fertilizer for Free. Also wheat.

Does that count as concern?

Posted by: Ct | Sep 21 2022 15:28 utc | 198

@Membrum Virile | Sep 21 2022 15:20 utc | 189

Stop being a dick.

Posted by: Ranelagh | Sep 21 2022 15:28 utc | 199

Tapio @169: "My fear is not a nuclear war. They will not do that. Putin will, despite all the warnings (same goes for China), not attack US soil."

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

You are correct that neither Russia nor China will attack the US with nuclear weapons, at least not in a first strike; however, that is not true for America attacking either or both Russia and China with nuclear weapons.

It is a simple historical fact that the US has already used nuclear weapons. They are "blooded", so to speak, and they liked it. They will do it again.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 21 2022 15:32 utc | 200

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