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Russia Announces Partial Mobilization
Updated below (8:45 UTC)
The expected TV speech by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, advertised for yesterday evening, did happen only this morning.
Putin announced a partial mobilization of military reserves:
Only citizens who are currently in the reserve and, above all, those who served in the ranks of the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience will be subject to conscription for military service.
Those called up for military service before being sent to the units will necessarily undergo additional military training taking into account the experience of a special military operation.
Additionally all military service contracts currently in force (usually 3 to 12 months) are extended indefinitely.
Putin said that the current conflict was instigated by the West, noting that the Western countries seek the destruction and disintegration of Russia. He said that the West had been supporting international terrorists, promoted the infrastructure of the NATO offensive close to Russia's borders and fostered Russophobia.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said (video, Sputnik report) that 300,000 reservist will be mobilized. Conscripts and people currently studying will not be send to Ukraine.
He also said that, so far, 5,937 Russian soldiers have died during the war in Ukraine. (This number does not include the militia of the DPR and LPR, or the Wagner group, who have done most of the frontline work and thus have had higher losses.) Shoigu puts Ukrainian losses at some 62,000 killed and some 50,000 wounded. (I regard this as a low estimate.)
Russia's total military reserve, people who have previously gone through military training, is 25 million. It also has the equipment to arm those forces.
There are rumors that the Ukraine is preparing for an all out offensive, mobilizing and preparing new units from Kiev and further west for one big push against the Russian and allied forces. It will take a few months to prepare for this. The Ukraine will need much more equipment and ammunition from the 'west', including 'western' tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and has yet to train troops to be able to use it. It is likely intending to start the offensive only in spring.
The call up Russia announced now may have the intent to draw Kiev into a premature launch of its general offensive. The mobilized Russian troops will take about three months to be ready for war. Russia could thus launch its own offensive during the winter season. In the meantime constant defensive work will continue to severely degrade the Ukrainian units which are currently on or near the frontlines.
With a force of an additional 300,000 troops, far beyond the 100,000 to 150,000 engaged now in the war, the Russia forces could change their tactics from the slow grind that is happening now into a larger scale maneuver war with heavy strikes into the operational depth of the Ukrainian army.
Belarus, allied with the Russian Federation, is also in the process of getting ready for war. It could, as it had threatened before, cut of the supply lines from the 'west' into the Ukraine in the western part of that country.
Should current Ukrainian attacks on civilians and infrastructure in Russia and the Donbas regions continue, we can expect that the Russian forces will start to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure on a large scale. The electricity and railway networks would be the primary targets.
Update:
Some two weeks ago a successful Ukrainian offensive led to the retreat of Russian troops in the Kharkov region. That at least is the 'western' version of that story. A different narrative is that the Russian troops intentionally withdrew from the region to raise Russian calls for an escalation of the war. The Izium withdrawal was thus probably a mere catalyst for 'starting in earnest':
The Russian public, which at first did not fully understand why the war was necessary, has since grown in its awareness. It now understands the big game that is played against its country. It may soon demand to adjust the level of resources put into the war to the one needed for a decisive victory. Polls will clarify if or when that point is reached.
That is why Dima concludes that: "We can say that today was the best ever [..] day for the Russians in the territory of Ukraine."
It is now probably assured that they will be liberated. One way or another.
I also believe that the withdrawal from the Izium region, which left behind a significant number of pro-Russian civilians under deadly threats from fascist 'filtration' groups, will be the catalyst for a significant escalation on the Russian side.
Finally the gloves are coming off.
Update:
Yves Smith just published an English version of Putin's speech and the decree on mobilization:
Below is the Russian transcript of Putin’s morning speech announcing a partial mobilization of Russia starting September 21. There is apparently not an official English translation up yet, and in any event, the Kremlin site is blocked in the US (which it hasn’t been since early in the Special Military Operation) and even to friendly VPN users in some countries in Asia. So we are also posting a machine translation and will replace it with an official English translation when one becomes available.
We are also posting an English version of the mobilization order, which here and apparently in the original Russian has Item 7 missing. You can theoretically find the order here: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69391.
As you can see, Putin refines and extends his critique of the “collective West” and its campaign to preserve the unipolar order at the expense of the Global South, and its campaign against Russia. Towards the end, Putin states: …
Yes, this is big, but I think people do not yet understand the magnitude of what this is about. When you prod the Great Bear, the bear is patient, he does not react strongly at first, it is difficult to make him stir – BUT DO NOT THINK YOUR PRODDING HAS NOT AFFECTED HIM! When he finally reacts, he reacts explosively, unexpectedly, ferociously. From the outset of the SMO Russia has maintained complete control over escalation, and she gains an enormous strategic advantage in doing so – that is why the Great Bear overtly seemed to respond little to the initial prods. We can see exactly the same pattern with respect to the runnup and initiation of the SMO itself from December to February.
The conflict in Ukraine was never about Ukraine, above all it was about the threat of NATO to Russia. Exactly the same applies to Russia’s latest escalation.
This partial mobilisation (only one percent of Russia’s available reserves) is all about Russia’s planned response to the massive bank of red lines crossed by the west – some kind of Russian offensive. We cannot know the exact nature of that offensive, let us call it “X”, where X is the broad offensive reaction by Russia against the acts of aggressive war committed by NATO against Russia. This offensive will necessarily be against NATO and NATO assets, not just against Ukraine. It is crystal clear in the videos of both Shoigu and Putin (see the Saker), that it is directed specifically at NATO. I believe this response was planned and formulated BEFORE the withdrawal from Kharkov, which in turn was planned specifically in preparation for “X”, whatever X may be. There is a direct causal relationship between the red lines crossed and the content of “X”.
What is “X”? With certainty, in my view, it includes the elimination of NATO command and control personnel and assets in Kiev, which Shoigu hinted at. Also with almost certainty, in my view, the 70 military satellites and maybe also the 200 civilian satellites being used to target Russian troops in Ukraine and to target Russian civilians in Russia and the Donbass. It may well also include the NATO aerial assets circling non-stop over international waters and over eastern Europe very close to Ukraine’s borders. Conceivably, it could also include decision making centres in western capitals. That, roughly, is what I think might be included in “X”.
But that is not all. Certainly Russia has planned in detail for all contingencies concerning the west’s anticipated reaction to “X”. Obviously Russia has rigorously prepared counter-measures. It is Russia’s doctrine that when you know for sure that the enemy will take certain aggressive actions, it is better to strike first. Therefore it seems logical that instead of just doing “X” and waiting for an inevitable response, Russia will from the outset also take further actions which pre-empt and disable that response. We can call those further actions “Y”, where Y denotes the additional actions designed to complement X and protect Russia against blowback from X. We can then say that X’ = X + Y, where X’ denoted the combination of the response to the West’s most serious provocations, and the further escalation over and above that which is necessary to protect Russia from inevitable blowback from the initial escalation and unavoidable subsequent escalation. Thus, when Russia carries out those strikes that it has long abstained from doing because of the seriousness of the escalation bound to it, we have to consider how the west is likely to react – including its capabilities to react and the consequences thereof.
Right from the 8 years of war leading up to the start of the SMO, and especially after the start of the SMO, it was obvious that the US/UK and NATO were acting in outright warfare against Russia – to deny this is to deny reality. Nevertheless it suited both sides not to overtly acknowledge that fact. In the west’s case, that is because they fear the ferocious response of Russia. In Russia’s case it is because it is to Russia’s immense strategic advantage to retain control over escalation. If Russia acknowledges that the US and NATO forces are fighting Russia directly on the battlefield, then automatically Russia will be forced to respond to that fact militarily by premature escalation before it is strategically most advantageous to Russia to do so. Once Russia officially acknowledges that outright warfare of NATO against Russia – as both videos did today – that totally transforms the nature of the conflict from mutually covert or quasi-covert warfare between NATO and Russia to outright overt warfare. At a stroke that instantly changes the nature of the conflict as black is to white.
Take very careful note, in both Putin’s and Shoigu’s videos (both posted with English subtitles today on the Saker), that both strongly emphasised the western threats to use nuclear weapons against Russia. Russia has repeatedly – and including recently – stressed that Russia will never ever ever carry out a nuclear first strike, unless the existence of Russia faces imminent threat. But it is my understanding of Martyanov that Russia most probably has the ability to carry out an entirely conventional first strike against the US, in which the nuclear capability of the US including the capability of a devastating response is completely neutralised, but exclusively using conventional weapons. Therefore, it is conceivable that the next week to 10 days we might see really massive changes.
Take careful note also, by the way: on 21st September referenda are announced to take place in the Donbass on 23rd September on the incorporation of these republics into the Russian Federation – the entire process is going to be completed within mere days; this is clearly planned as an urgently required protective measure. We are not under any circumstances talking about preparations for an offensive “in December”, we are talking about NOW!
Posted by: BM | Sep 21 2022 16:58 utc | 266
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