|
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-152
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
> American officials believe they have, so far, succeeded at “boiling the frog” — increasing their military, intelligence and economic assistance to Ukraine step by step, without provoking Moscow into large-scale retaliation with any major single move. <
– The ‘Wild Field’ Where Putin Sowed the Seeds of War – New York Times – Sep 17
> Columns of dark green military trucks and American-made rocket launchers are thundering down the long, straight highways into the Donbas. But they will have a much harder fight on their hands.
…
“I’d go into the supermarket to buy some meat, and the shopkeeper tells me, ‘If you don’t speak Ukrainian, I’m not going to sell you any meat,’” Mr. Tsyhankov said. “I’ve been speaking Russian my whole life. How do you think that made me feel?”
…
At 9 p.m. on July 9, four cruise missiles slammed into a dormitory at the old ceramic plant. The buildings crumbled as if they were made out of sand. Viacheslav Boitsov, an emergency services official, said there were “no military facilities nearby.”
But according to Mr. Mohyla and Oleksandr Nevydomskyi, another Ukrainian military officer, Ukrainian soldiers were staying in that building.
…
Every night, the horizon in Chasiv Yar lights up with explosions. Ukrainian soldiers operate here almost as if they are on enemy territory, hiving themselves off from the public, watching their backs, traveling by night in long convoys of cars with the lights blacked out, the drivers wearing night vision goggles.
– Russian sanctions slow to bite as US officials admit frustrations over pace of pain in Moscow – CNN
> The hope had been that the sanctions would quickly choke off Russia’s war machine in Ukraine, making it difficult for the Kremlin to sustain its efforts on the battlefield — and perhaps even turn public opinion against the invasion when day-to-day life in Russian society became uncomfortable.
But the Russian economy has proven far more resilient than many top Biden administration officials had expected when they set out to punish the country in February, thanks largely to record-setting revenues it has reaped in the spring and summer from soaring energy prices. In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record 93 billion euros in revenue by exporting oil, gas and coal, according to the Finnish Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
…
“We were expecting that things like SWIFT and all the blocking sanctions on Russia’s banks would totally crater the Russian economy and that basically, by now going into September, we’d be dealing with an economically much more weakened Russia than the one that we are dealing with,” said one senior US official, referring to the US and European decision to cut some Russian banks off from the SWIFT international banking system. <
—
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-152
Ukraine – Dissecting Some War Propaganda News Items – Addendum
Ukraine – Dissecting Some War Propaganda News Items
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-151
News & views related to the Ukraine conflict.
Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (NOT Ukraine) Thread 2022-150
News and views NOT related to the Ukraine conflict …
Ukraine SitRep – Hit On Dam Endangers Ukrainian Troops – Russians Defeat More Counterattacks
The BBC continues to misinterpret war news from Ukraine:Ukraine
Ukraine war: Houses flooded after missiles hit major dam
Russian missiles have hit a reservoir dam near the southern Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, officials say.
Residents in some areas were told to evacuate, city head Oleksandr Vilkul said, but he added the situation was under control.
Ukraine said the strike was revenge by Russia for its recent counter-attack.
President Volodymyr Zelensky – who was born in the city – described Russia as a "terrorist state" after the attack on the Karachunivske reservoir.
"You are weaklings who fight civilians," Mr Zelensky said in his late night address on Wednesday. "Scoundrels who, having escaped from the battlefield, are trying to do harm from somewhere far away."
This was an apparent reference to Ukraine's recent military successes in a swift counter-offensive in the country's north-eastern Kharkiv region. It has seen Ukraine's army reclaim swathes of occupied territory, forcing Russian troops to retreat.
In his speech, Mr Zelensky said the reservoir had "no military value at all".
Zelenski is an idiot.
The Ingulet river, which the dam restrained, flows mainly north to south through Kryvyi Rih (Russian spelling: Krivoi Rog, Кривой Рог) to then turn southwest before it ends in the Dnieper.
bigger
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – Hit On Dam Endangers Ukrainian Troops – Russians Defeat More Counterattacks
The Kharkov Counterattack – No Big Success – No Large Defeat
The 'western' media are euphoric about the 'successful' Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkov oblast.
Ukrainian forces retake key villages as counteroffensive advances writes the Washington Post. How Ukraine Gained Momentum Against Russia and Took a Critical Hub says the New York Times. WaPo again: Intelligence points to potential turning point in Ukraine war. Ukraine News: In Reclaimed Towns, Ukrainians Recount a Frantic Russian Retreat, headlines the NYT. Is Russia on the run? asks the Economist.
All have fallen for the belief that the Ukrainian rapid advance has caused a Russian defeat. That however is not the case.
The main Russian forces had already left the area. What was left were sentry guards of the Luhansk People's Republic and a few companies of the Russian National Guard which is more or less a police force. That is why the 'western' official talking with Reuters is quite cautious with his assessment:
"There's an ongoing debate about the nature of the Russian drawdown, however it's likely that in strict military terms, this was a withdrawal, ordered and sanctioned by the general staff, rather than an outright collapse."
…
"Obviously, it looks really dramatic. It's a vast area of land. But we have to factor in the Russians have made some good decisions in terms of shortening their lines and making them more defensible, and sacrificing territory in order to do so," the official said, adding he did not expect Russia to immediately seek to regain lost territory.
The main Russian reason for holding onto Izium southeast of Kharkov was to use it as a springboard to attack Sloviansk and Kramatorsk along the M-03 highway. However over the last months several Russian attempts to cross the Siverski Donets river south and east of Izium and to establish a bridgehead on the southern side had failed.
Situation at the end of August with Izium in the upper left corner
bigger
Cont. reading: The Kharkov Counterattack – No Big Success – No Large Defeat
A Peace Proposal For Ukraine
b here:
The text below, an outline of a peace agreement over Ukraine, was send to me by a west-European source that wants to stay anonymous. Its purpose is to begin a discussion about the content of such an agreement. As such it is starting point, not an end result.
I personally disagree with many of its clauses. With some for practical reasons, with others for the legal consequences they imply (III.1).
But one has to start somewhere if one wants to discuss how the war in Ukraine should or can end.
—
A Peace Russia Should Propose
By RationalPeacekeeper
Background:
Nobody knows where this is going to end. The only thing for sure is that the risk of nuclear Armageddon for humanity has increased dramatically. This is insane. At the moment, no party seems to be interested in ending the conflict peacefully. However minute the prospect of settling this conflict may be, and however illusory it might be perceived, it is worth discussing visionary plans on which reasonable people could agree on.
Cont. reading: A Peace Proposal For Ukraine
Russia Retaliates For Ukrainian Strikes On Russian Controlled Electricity Networks
A typical U.S. attack on a foreign country begins with a swarm of cruise missiles which will disable the countries basic infrastructure. The U.S. attack on Iraq and other countries demonstrated that electricity and water supply will be gone in first days of a U.S. waged war.
Over more than 200 days the Russian special military operation in Ukraine had never attacked the basic infrastructure of the country. When the Ukraine used its electrified railway network to bring in weapons from the 'west' the Russian forces only took out electric substations that supplied the railway. But it never attacked the general electricity production for the population. The lights in Ukraine staid on.
One thus wonders about the Ukrainian decision makers and their 'western' intelligence minders who thought that attacking electricity networks under Russian control would somehow benefit their cause.
The Ukrainian military has for weeks attacked the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, since early March under Russian control and guarded by Russian troops, with artillery strikes. Yesterday the last of the plant's six reactors had to shut down after its connection to external emergency power supply was destroyed during another Ukrainian artillery attack. (The line was later restored.)
It was not the only target of Ukrainian infrastructure attacks. As British intelligence asset Bellingcat mouthpiece Christo Gorzev tweeted gleefully:
Cont. reading: Russia Retaliates For Ukrainian Strikes On Russian Controlled Electricity Networks
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-149
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1 – 0:09 UTC · Sep 10, 2022
Too few troops, too small garrisons, to hold onto too much Ukrn territory. Kyiv/Pentagon pushed their manpower/cannon fodder advantage where Russian forces weakest, rushed through w DRGs and are exhausting Russian firepower across a broad front trying to put out fires everywhere.
Reserves too slow to the front to prevent the manuever warfare overun. Russian forces retreating from Kharkov region to avoid encirclement. Eastern Ukrainian citizens who worked w or even just took aid from Russian troops will pay the heaviest price.
Will the Kremlin now at last finally call up Russia's plentiful military reserves, expand the intervention force and get serious about this total war against Banderastan & NATO?
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-149
The Izium Withdrawal – A Catalyst For ‘Starting In Earnest’
"We can say that today was the best ever, the second best ever, day for the Russians in the territory of Ukraine. Something must be changed. If you ask what the Russian should change, to tell the truth, I don't know. But I believe, if they don't change anything after this situation, that means there is no need to continue this Special Operation. Because the Ukrainians managed to collect a big number of infantry. Some sources are saying, joking of course they are joking, that now the Ukrainians these days have a so big army that the Ukrainian authorities can give them just stones. And this army is able to crack the Russians' defense order just with stones because there are so much of them."
The above is the opener of Dima's Military Summary of yesterday's events in Ukraine.
The simplistic view that "quantity has a quality of its own," is usually attributed to Joseph Stalin, the Georgian leader of the Soviet Union during the second World War (as well as before and after).
Stalin was wrong, as the Second Battle of Kharkov, mentioned here yesterday, provides. In May 1942, near Izium, the Nazis thoroughly defeated a counterattacking Soviet force twice their forces size.
Stalin was also right. In the end the Soviet Union simply outproduced the German Reich and its allies in nearly everything – tanks, airplanes, cannons, ammunition, fuel, food and soldiers – which enabled its victory. (The much propagandized U.S. role in this was historically a mere sideshow.)
Yesterday's Russian withdrawal from the region between Izium and the Russian border was a disaster for the (pro-)Russian people on the ground. It was also the rational consequence of a lack of military resources. The Russian military forces in Ukraine are too few to hold the 1,500 kilometer long frontline against a Ukrainian military which now has a.) a much larger force to work with, b.) no concerns about high human losses and c.) a steady supply of 'western' weapons.
Russia must adapt to this.
Cont. reading: The Izium Withdrawal – A Catalyst For ‘Starting In Earnest’
Ukraine – Russian Military Explains Its Withdrawal From The Izium Region
Since September 4, when the Ukrainian operation north of Izium started, the Russia Defense Ministry had said nothing about the issue.
Today it finally published a statement (machine translation):
Statement by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense
In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass, a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum regions to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.
To this end, within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic.
During this operation, a number of distraction and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops.
In order to prevent damage to Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery.
Over three days, more than two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters were destroyed, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery.
(Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)
Has that been the plan all along?
Cont. reading: Ukraine – Russian Military Explains Its Withdrawal From The Izium Region
Ukraine – Battle Of The Izium Bulge?
Here is the latest from the Izium front where a Ukrainian counterattack made a deep push into Russian held lines.
Source: Militaryland.net – bigger
The map shows 5 Ukrainian brigades within the bulge the Ukrainian forces have formed to the north of Izium. Several more brigades are pushing up from the south of Izium. With about 3,000 men per brigade this is a major force of some 30,000+ soldiers plus likely reserves.
Cont. reading: Ukraine – Battle Of The Izium Bulge?
The Izium ‘Counteroffensive’ Success / Disaster
"It's a disaster," says Dima of the Military Summary channel.
I agree. The question now is: For whom?
Here is the map of the Izium region in the northeast of Ukraine on September 4.
bigger
In the middle we can see the Oskol river flowing north to south. Along it run railway tracks and roads that connect Izium region at the bottom of the map with Urazovo in Russia (further north, not on the map).
Here is the situation in the same area on the morning of September 9.
Cont. reading: The Izium ‘Counteroffensive’ Success / Disaster
RIP Liz II
This lady has died today after living a posh, eventful and long life.
bigger
Despite all controversies about the British royals, their public roles and riches, many people in the United Kingdom have had some genuine love for her as a person.
I doubt that her successors will ever gain similar sympathies. Indeed the UK may over time wean itself off from such an undemocratic, and very expensive, institution as the monarchy is.
Cont. reading: RIP Liz II
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-148
News & views related to the Ukraine conflict.
Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (NOT Ukraine) Thread 2022-147
News and views NOT related to the Ukraine conflict …
Ukraine Loses Soldiers – Europe Its Economies – All For No Gain
When the Ukraine launched its Kherson 'counteroffensive' on August 29 I was pretty aghast and judged that it was destined to fail:
To break the reinforced Russian lines now would have taken more troops than were available.
I am sure that the Ukrainian military knew that this offensive would fail.
For political reasons Zelenski ordered them to launch it anyway. There are now another 1,000+ Ukrainian and Russian lives lost for nothing other then some sensational headlines and political optics.
More than 3,000 Ukrainians have died by now in the Kherson offensive without having made any significant progress. Hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles were lost. A dozen Ukrainian planes and helicopters have been shot down. All the material had come from the 'west' which has now emptied its stock of Soviet weapons. No more will be coming anytime soon.
The Ukraine thereby blew its chance to hold a line against any significant new moves from the Russia side. Those moves will be coming.
But what really bothers me is the human toll of this offensive.
Cont. reading: Ukraine Loses Soldiers – Europe Its Economies – All For No Gain
Ukraine – A Second ‘Counteroffensive’ Contrary To U.S. Advice – IAEA Report
The Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' in the southern Kherson region has made little progress and binds a lot of Ukrainian resources and available units.
Despite that, and against advice from the U.S. military, Ukraine has now launched a second 'counteroffensive' in the north-eastern Kharkiv region of Ukraine.
AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 @AZmilitary1 – 13:06 UTC · Sep 6, 2022
‼️ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 AFU has launched an offensive on Balakleya, heavy fighting started is underway
▪️For more than a month, the AFU pulled together reserves and created a strike force in the Kharkiv direction.
▪️Now, after a powerful artillery preparation, they have gone on the offensive, throwing forward armored vehicles, fighting is going on on the outskirts of the city.
▪️The artillery and aviation of the Russian army are hitting the sprawling advancing enemy forces.
▪️Allied forces blew up bridges to obstruct the AFU's advance.
▪️Armored vehicles work in battles on the outskirts.
▪️Allied reserves are being tightened.
▪️The Russian Aerospace Forces struck the headquarters of the operational command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Chuguev
▪️The offensive in the south is not a distraction, it's just that the enemy has planned and launched several offensive operations, and attempts to break through are also continuing in the Kherson region
▪️There is no panic. In Balakleya there are mostly mobilized. Now reserves are going to Balakleya. The barrel and rocket artillery are working. Aviation is actively working.
There is no talk of a deep breakthrough. The situation + is similar to the Nahtsee counteroffensive in the Kherson direction.
bigger
Balakleya (Balaklya, Balakliia) originally had 25,000 inhabitants, many of whom will likely have departed by now. On March 3 it was taken by Russian forces without much fighting.
Cont. reading: Ukraine – A Second ‘Counteroffensive’ Contrary To U.S. Advice – IAEA Report
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-146
Only for news & views related to the Ukraine conflict.
Note: Stick to the topic or get banned.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
|
