Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 05, 2022

Kherson 'Counteroffensive' - Zelenski Is Going For Broke

After the first Ukrainian attempt to push towards had failed it is now reinforcing that failure. As I describe the move:

The only 'successful' attack was across the Inhulet river near Andriivka in the direction of the dam and river crossing that closes off the Kakhovka Dnieper reservoir.

The troops were cut off and mostly destroyed. On the western side of the salient a Russian unit crossed the Inhulet towards north and attacked the Ukrainians on that side. It soon had to pull back and the Ukrainians used the Russian crossing to reconnect with the cut off units in the salient.


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More Ukrainian reinforcements were pushed into the salient where they have little natural protection from Russian artillery and air force attacks.

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The political leadership of Ukraine is committed to continue this massacre. The Ukrainian Telegram channel 'Resident' reported:

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky holds a meeting every day on the counteroffensive in the South of Ukraine, at the moment the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to create a foothold in the Krivoy Rog direction. Zalusky reported on the heavy fighting and losses suffered by the Ukrainian army in the steppes, but the political center of influence insist on continuing the #Battle_for_Kherson operation.

Reserves from the eastern front and Kharkov will be transferred to the Dnepropetrovsk region, in order to achieve the advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, no information will be officially published in the media until the seizure of territories.

Earlier another war observer noted:

Ukrainian channel Legitimny reports Helensky is prepared to sacrifice up to 20K dead and 40k wounded in the Kherson offensive, which would be 6% of his army. Current losses are around 2% so he's going for 2nd offensive wave.

I believe that 60,000 men are more than 10% of the Ukrainian army but that is not the point.

'Resident' and 'Legitimny' are seen as authoritative Ukrainian sources. Unfortunately I have no access to the their Telegram channels so I can not verify the quotes. But it seems clear that Zelenski is going for broke.

Zalusky, the military leader of the Ukrainian army, will not be happy with this decision.

The only Ukrainian hope is that the Russian forces on the western side of the Dnieper can be cut off from the other side to then run out of supplies. The bridges across are damaged or destroyed but Russia has enough ferries to keep the supply line open. Large river crossing are part of every bigger Russian military training event. It has the materials and troops experienced with it. That is why I have my doubt that the Ukrainian hope can be realized.

Meanwhile the Russian military plays its usual defensive game. The frontline along the Kherson regions is currently held by lightly armored airmobile units. Whenever a Ukrainian push gets too strong they pull back from the front line, or leave the town under threat, to let the artillery and airforce do its work. They then pull up mobile reinforcements and push back until they are in their old positions. Rinse and repeat.

While this tactic costs the Russian side some losses the much higher ones are on the Ukrainian side.

The former Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar writes:

Russia’s “domain control” can be put in perspective: the enemy is, on the one hand, caught on the bare steppe and cut down with the overwhelming superiority of Russian artillery and aviation, and, on the other hand, encountering well-fortified, entrenched defence lines.

That said, Zelensky cannot give up, as he is desperately in need of a success story. Kiev still hopes to reverse the situation, but how that is achievable remains to be seen.

Against this sombre backdrop, more and more sceptical voices are being heard in the US about the Biden Administration’s policy trajectory. The latest is an opinion piece in Wall Street Journal by Gen. (Retd) Mark Kimmitt, formerly Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs in the Bush administration. Kimmitt predicts that “a breakthrough is unlikely” and soon, “logistics shortfalls” may force a change in US strategy.
...
In principle, the options are: i) “dig deeper into NATO stockpiles being held back for national defences”; ii) “ramp up critical shortfalls” by invoking Defense Production Act and its European equivalents; iii) escalate the conflict by targeting Crimea and Russia itself; or, iv) forcing Zelensky to face the grim reality that “diminishing resupplies” of weaponry actually contains “the message of declining outside support” for the war itself.

The retired general with Republican Party leanings concludes: “Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later… Looking into a future of protracted war, diminishing high-tech systems and mounting casualties, Mr. Zelensky and NATO must face up to tough decisions before those decisions are forced on them.”

Of those four options the first will be rejected by the professional military. The second is, at least in Europe, currently impossible for lack of cheap energy. Metal smelters and forges in Europe are shutting down. The third option, escalation, is the one the neoconservatives will press for, likely with some success. The fourth option is one Joe Biden and other are yet unwilling to take.

I therefore expect that the U.S. will double down, most likely with some new attacks on Crimea and the Kerch bridges.

Posted by b on September 5, 2022 at 12:12 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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While Z is understood to be little more than a sock-puppet for his masters in Washington, a key concern must be the fact Joe Tzu, the head puppeteer,

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 5 2022 18:51 utc | 98

Sorry, at this stage of his career, Joe is not even a competent puppet. Puppeteer is out of the question.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 5 2022 19:23 utc | 101

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 5 2022 15:08 utc | 60
Thanks, Melaleuca!

Posted by: Susn | Sep 5 2022 19:29 utc | 102

Bob | Sep 5 2022 15:17 utc | 64

That raised a thought. Post SMO Ukraine will, as they keep doing what they're doing, have a demographic profile much like that of post WWI France. Widows and marriageable age women will find themselves competing for the few men available. Taking the maimed and the crippled. Throwing women into the fight is repellent, even to coke head Nazis. Wonder if the OC will find Biblical justification for polygamy?

Posted by: jhill | Sep 5 2022 19:31 utc | 103

@Pobeda #97, I've always been perfectly clear that I support Ukraine's efforts to defend itself from invasion. Just like you've been clear that you urge Russia to commit war crimes by bombing Ukraine's medical services with the goal of killing as many wounded soldiers as possible, a level of bloodlust that even the most hardcore Rush Limbaugh listener circa 2003 would be appalled by

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 5 2022 19:39 utc | 104


"The Vindman brothers just reported on CNN that Kherson has been taken over by the Ukrainian Army - ?????
Usual disinformation ?????
Posted by: georgeg | Sep 5 2022 12:42 utc | 12"


Disinformation, but by who? This article recaps Vindman/CNN Monday https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/05/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html Strangely, no reference your claim.


"Russia ‘hasn’t been sufficiently held accountable’ for crimes in Ukraine, Vindman says.
Russia “hasn’t been held sufficiently accountable” for its war crimes in Ukraine, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman told CNN’s “New Day” on Monday.

“We could just say this is a disastrous human toll imposed by Russia, imposed by an illegal war, a barbarous war, an unprovoked war,” the retired officer said during an interview with his brother, Lt. Col. Yevgeny Vindman. “And again, Russia hasn’t been sufficiently held accountable yet. There are efforts to undertake that through sanctions. Ukrainians are doing that on the battlefield by delivering major defeats in terms of thwarting Russians objectives. This war’s far from done, but that’s clearly happening.”

Yevgeny Vindman, who has been traveling intermittently to Ukraine, said he expects accountability. While some prosecutions have already kicked off, the world will be handling Russia’s war crimes for “quite some time into the future,” he said.

“So, the short answer is there will be accountability,” he said. “The law of war is a mechanism under internal law, frankly where one of the few available now since the Russians have a veto on the security council and they can’t be held accountable in the U.N., where they can be held accountable under international law, whether they like it or not. And I have no doubt there will be accountability.”

Posted by: daffyDuct | Sep 5 2022 19:48 utc | 105

@ Sushi | Sep 5 2022 18:51 utc | 98

those doors lyrics are fitting today.. a close friend died on saturday night... such is life....

@ the '''supposed''' hospital attack.....

listen... just think for a moment.. if russia actually attacked a hospital, do you really think the western press would not get hold of this and go ape shit with it?? the fact we are hearing nothing implies whatever did or didn't happen isn't grounds for some huge media blitz in the western press... of course it won't stop some from blabbing on about it, but seriously... and yes - those must have been fake ambulances as well.... they were just involved in a drill or exercise...

Posted by: james | Sep 5 2022 19:51 utc | 106

add the snark symbol at the end..

Posted by: james | Sep 5 2022 19:52 utc | 107

Regarding the listed four options, there is a fifth option:

NATO could buy some of the NATO supplies captured by or sold to the Russians. Top price naturally, and no guarantees that the weapons will actually work (Standard US MIC t&c - /s)

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Sep 5 2022 19:55 utc | 108

@Yenwoda No. You always pretended to be a "concerned troll". And the nazis you are supporting are the ones commiting war crimes left and right. So you can shove your false moral superiority.

Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 20:09 utc | 109

Who's winning this war (see below)?

1. Who has completely lost its navy and air force?
2. Who is sending very young and very old recruits to the frontlines?
3. Who has suffered over 200,000 casualties according to its own general's assessment?
4. Who has lost 40% of its junior officers according to arch-Ukrainian-CIA asset Vindman?
5. Who has lost over 20% of its territory and unable to win anything substantial back?
6. Who is pulling reserve troops from strategic positions in the east to replenish forces in the south?

Who cannot win this war (see above)?

Posted by: FHTEX | Sep 5 2022 20:17 utc | 110

Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 20:09 utc | 110

No matter how much french perfume you spray on a turd, it only stinks even more. Of course all those camouflaged nazis that talk about invasion do not know anything about the eight years of Ukro civil war, of the five billion spent by Cookie Nuland to provoke it, the Georgian snipers, the School Nº 5 in Sebastopol and the DoD rebuilding it to quarter US troops in no other place than Sebastopol, a hero city with rivers of Russian blood spilt on it, to be given away to fat ass freedom fries munchers just like that, because they are so exceptional. The list could be long, but they should get one thing in their rotten brains, they’ve lost, and big, Ukraine is only the beginning, just like corruption and degeneracy gave Rome Caligulas and Neros, those historical figures are nothing compared to the Hunters, Brandons, Bojos, Sana Marins, Liz Trusses, Macrons and all the degenerates that took the west to the gutter.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 5 2022 20:24 utc | 111

Paco / James
as always well said

Posted by: ld | Sep 5 2022 20:33 utc | 112

Dima at the Military Summary Channel has said that the Ukie operation has to last until Sept. 8th, when there is a military vendor meeting in which Ukraine will demand more weapons.
I vaguely remember a vendor meeting like that a couple of months ago that the Russians blew up.
Is it possible that both Ukraine and Russia have a motive for letting the Sept 8th meeting take place?

Posted by: wagelaborer | Sep 5 2022 20:38 utc | 113

Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 20:09 utc | 110

Yes,a mockinbird even polite and friendly is always a mockingbird.Its aim is to spread russophobia and put Russia in a bad light.The only solution is starve him to death.Among hundreds of interesting posts is just a gnat in the eye.

Posted by: LuBa | Sep 5 2022 20:43 utc | 114

daffyduct@106 - The Interview was on CNN this morning 9/05 - your link refers to CNBC - different network.
As the Vindman's were spewing their usual propaganda, the CNN headline was referring to the Ukrainian capture
of Kherson.....

Posted by: georgeg | Sep 5 2022 20:52 utc | 115

Russian are not in a hurry. Winter is coming and history show that all militaries campaigns have broken for the russian winter: Napoleon, Hitler. Ukrainians are begging winter clothes for 200 000 soldiers. They will have only non professional manpower left for that winter and this will be the end. Russian are well prepared for winter and will wait for Europe freezing with recession, strikes, unemployment and inflation. Everybody with knowledge knows it. Russia will end the war against the West in winter as always. Ukraine is just the chihuahua from uncle Sam. History is just an eternal restarting. Military operation is just a demilitarisation on a burned battlefield. There is no interest in burning more land just keep slaughter on the same one, letting the enemy building his own cauldrons. This is the russian strategy and it works very fine. Zelensky and films directors know that winter is the dead line, that's why they threw everything they can before rain and cold. But it's just madness.

Posted by: juanyves | Sep 5 2022 21:11 utc | 116

It is odd that "demilitarization" and "denazification" are always placed in quotation marks, even in this forum. It should be noted that both of these programs were part of the Minsk Agreement, in spirit if not in language, negotiated and fully endorsed by France and Germany: bilateral ceasefire, creation of security zones, release of all hostages, the inclusive national dialogue, withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment...

Posted by: Nomd | Sep 5 2022 21:21 utc | 117

reply to 90

"Ukrainians are ready to die, they are not afraid and that is their strength."

That is just a nonsensical cliche about Ukrainians. It's BS peddled by Western MSM, which has invented many pro-Ukrainian propaganda tropes intended for consumption by impressionable, poorly informed American readers.

It's never a good idea to make generalizations about any people, regardless of their nationality, race, ethnicity, religion, social caste, or whatever else. Doing so reduces people to the level of cartoon characters. Doesn't work.

In terms of military talent, the Ukrainians are no different from any other ethnicity. There are Ukrainian troops who have two ton balls and make great fighters. Others are mediocre conscripts, scared stiff and just hoping to survive battle. Same deal with the Russians. Or the Americans, Brits, or any other nationality.

BTW, in this war, the POW numbers favor the Russians by a very lopsided margin. Russia has close to 5,000 Ukrainian prisoners. Ukraine has captured no more than 900 Russians. Think about what these numbers imply.

Posted by: GW | Sep 5 2022 21:26 utc | 118

From t.me/Slavyangrad Miroslav, 18:59 (video)

How is this even possible?

Dozens of Ukrainian troops attempt an advance in Kherson.

As we stated in our analysis a few weeks ago, this is simply insane to attempt over flatlands — expectedly, they were picked up by Russian Armed Forces recon units & an Airstrike was immediately called.
They were all neutralized

Posted by: António Ferrão | Sep 5 2022 21:26 utc | 119

The SMO was undertaken against a Ukraine military far stronger than what it is today. The Russians are far more insightful about the so called counter offensive than most pundits opining on events as they have occurred over these past few days. Furthermore, the mission has evolved whereby considerably more of eastern Ukraine will need to become a part of the Russian Federation if a key objective of the original purpose of the SMO is to be achieved. Specifically, security against military threats.

Posted by: Bilding | Sep 5 2022 22:03 utc | 120

Gazprom has the answer

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 5 2022 22:09 utc | 121

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 5 2022 22:09 utc | 120

Autumn quietly dying

while waving his yellow hand.

That's a good one Wolfram, they're saying f*ck off with poetry and a soft woman's voice.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 5 2022 22:23 utc | 122

Pobeda: you forgot the "taking of body parts"... and this came through a report on the duran .. MSN has not mentioned this .. ?? 'need a cryo-ed heart' ?? [due to some sort of 'injection' reaction?] .. maybe they where also making 'horse' burgers and steaks

Posted by: T S | Sep 5 2022 22:33 utc | 123

I am a bit confused. I understand why we are skeptical of Ukraine. But why are so many here rooting for Russia? The way I see it, both are countries throwing their people to the slaughter

Posted by: Random_mikuchan | Sep 5 2022 22:44 utc | 124

Posted by: Random_mikuchan | Sep 5 2022 22:44 utc | 123

probably because the two sides are not equivalent, Ukraine allowed itself to be used as a catspaw to provoke Russia into a war to preserve its security, and Russia is responding, as far as I can see with an eye to minimizing its own losses, and avoiding needless slaughter of civilians, while working toward the goal of denazifying Ukraine.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 5 2022 22:48 utc | 125

Sounds like you drank just as much coolaid as the ZelenskyBros IMO. There has been historic incompetence and disregard displayed by the leadership in both Russia and Ukraine. They were really made for each other

Posted by: Random_mikuchan | Sep 5 2022 22:54 utc | 126

@123 You are probably being coy but I'll bite. It's not really a question of 'rooting for Russia' so much as objecting to NATO expansion. Of course some here are anti-American and some are anti-Empire. Some object at the way their own governments are sending money and weapons into some nebulous Slavic squabble.

Posted by: dh | Sep 5 2022 22:54 utc | 127

@ Random_mikuchan | Sep 5 2022 22:44 utc | 123

If you are asking sincerely, read blog posts from the beginning of this year. You’ll understand.

If you still don’t, read the comments of the articles that come closest to helping you understand.

Posted by: dfg | Sep 5 2022 22:55 utc | 128

‘The only Ukrainian hope is that the Russian forces on the western side of the Dnieper can be cut off from the other side to then run out of supplies.’

No doubt this has been the Ukrainian strategy in the Kherson region for some time. The Ukrainians’ recent stepped-up bombing of important bridges and supply depots, in the region and in Crimea, was clearly a lead-up to the counter-offensive.

It’s also not hard to see why the Ukrainians have chosen the Kherson region as a major part of their pushback. Apart from the symbolic value of recapturing the city, a Kherson offensive is the Ukrainians’ best opportunity to achieve a limited, but telling, territorial victory.

Russian forces are bound on one side by the Dnieper river, and on the other by the Ukrainians. There’s also speculation that Russian forces in this part of the battlefield are under-manned and their supply lines under pressure.

Even limited territorial gains by the Ukrainians would start to squeeze the enemy in this relatively confined area.

How successful the pushback will be remains to be seen, but the Ukrainians have been confounding expectations for some time now in their determination to take back their land.

Posted by: MrB | Sep 5 2022 23:00 utc | 129

"There is no point arguing with cult members and people who are not interested in finding out where the truth actually is."

Posted by: Nostradamus | Sep 5 2022 13:59 utc | 41

Which begs the question, why then are you here?
Except maybe to pee on everyone's corn flakes...

BTW "finding out where the truth actually is" is exactly why I'm here. And if you think MoA is some sort of single source blog, then you haven't been paying attention

Posted by: xLemming | Sep 5 2022 23:06 utc | 130

@125 "There has been historic incompetence and disregard displayed by the leadership in both Russia and Ukraine."

Well Russia was patient for 8 years while their ethnic kin were getting slaughtered in Donbass.. But incompetence is certainly not a Slavic monopoly.

Posted by: dh | Sep 5 2022 23:14 utc | 131

More on Leopards

@Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 15:17 utc | 63

DID FINLAND GIVE UKRAINE LEOPARD 2A4 TANKS?

I went looking for Russian sources on the Leopard 2 tanks in Kherson. Here are some I found.

Ukraine expects to receive Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks - mil.in.ua, September 2, 2022

Shmyhal and Scholz discussed the possibility of delivering Leopard 2 tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine - mil.in.ua, September 5, 2022

Shmygal offered Scholz a supply route for Leopard 2 tanks - Novoe Izdanie, September 5, 2022 (in Russian)

Tank battle in Ukraine: NATO throws Leopard 2А4 on the Kherson front - Svobodnaya Pressa, September 5, 2022 (in Russian)

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 23:26 utc | 132

@ 128

"How successful the pushback will be remains to be seen, but the Ukrainians have been confounding expectations for some time now in their determination to take back their land."

According to who? Mostly Western MSM and Ukrainian state announcements, but not anyone else.

Let's not overlook that this is really a war between NATO and Russia. Ukraine is just a NATO proxy. Therefore Western MSM - especially English language media - reports the war through the lens of pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia war propaganda. The simple-minded MSM message is that the "valiant Ukrainians" are defeating and confounding the "barbaric Russians" at every turn.

Don't buy into Western MSM reporting on the war. Most it is just a rehash, or an echo, of whatever the Ukrainian General Staff and Zelensky have to say on any given day. As for US/UK intelligence and think-tank "experts" that are often quoted in MSM, they're just cheerleading for Ukraine.

Posted by: GW | Sep 5 2022 23:30 utc | 133

@ 128

"How successful the pushback will be remains to be seen, but the Ukrainians have been confounding expectations for some time now in their determination to take back their land."

According to who? Mostly Western MSM and Ukrainian state announcements, but not anyone else.

Let's not overlook that this is really a war between NATO and Russia. Ukraine is just a NATO proxy. Therefore Western MSM - especially English language media - reports the war through the lens of pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia war propaganda. The simple-minded MSM message is that the "valiant Ukrainians" are defeating and confounding the "barbaric Russians" at every turn.

Don't buy into Western MSM reporting on the war. Most it is just a rehash, or an echo, of whatever the Ukrainian General Staff and Zelensky have to say on any given day. As for US/UK intelligence and think-tank "experts" that are often quoted in MSM, they're just cheerleading for Ukraine.

Posted by: GW | Sep 5 2022 23:30 utc | 134

@130
Ukraine and Russia are full of snakes. Maybe Putin is a patient snake, but that still makes him a snake. What the world is witnessing is a sad squabble over a forsaken past.

Ukraine likes to pretend that it has some unified, glorious national history and that it is entitled. Russia likes to pretend like it wasn’t a repressive empire ruled by pure terror and ignorance.

Putin thinks he needs to have 2000 more kilometers of land in his infinite empire. And he needs another poor, backwards region in his endless list of poverty and backwards regions.

And Zelensky and his lot think it’s their right to delude their people and sacrifice them into the furnace of endless war so they can preserve “territorial integrity” of a state that never really existed.

And I’m supposed to root for either?

Posted by: Random_mikuchan | Sep 5 2022 23:36 utc | 135

Russia briefly fought NATO terrorists in Chechnya, then fought NATO-trained Georgian forces for a few days in August 2008. Russia then fought more NATO terrorists in Syria beginning in 2015 and are still engaged there, although major combat has ceased for some time. Russia since the 2014 Ukraine Coup has been engaged with NATO-trained Ukrainian forces. As yet, NATO has lost all its engagements with Russia, regardless the type of forces or numbers employed. The current SMO shows beyond doubt that Russian military is superior in every aspect to NATO--Everything. NATO is now engaged in emptying its armories which will soon host spiders and nothing else. Excepting the Outlaw US Empire, all NATO nations are experiencing an energy crisis that makes them incapable of manufacturing arms to replenish what they've given to Ukraine. Soon, most of NATO will be naked. And given Russia's performance, what NATO member is going to want to go to war against Russia aside from the Outlaw US Empire, whose populace most certainly doesn't?

If this were Chess, Russia's opponent would have conceded long ago; if poker, would have folded; etc.

Russia issued proposals for new defense agreements last December that have yet to be genuinely answered through diplomatic channels. Are there any Realists within NATO capable of seeing the only solution or are they all extinct? The only solution is as follows for those who can't read the tea leaves:

NATO: We give. Tell us your terms.

Russia: Disband, rescind all sanctions, and we'll write another Collective Security Treaty like the four you broke while restoring energy deliveries and resuming the status quo ante. Or something along those lines.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 5 2022 23:47 utc | 136

@134 "Ukraine and Russia are full of snakes."

So are Asia and the Western world if you ask me. Seems to be a human failing. I think what we are seeing in Ukraine is some kind of nationalistic stubbornness. Same thing in Russia but I still think they were provoked. You are probably best off not rooting for anyone if you find it confusing.

Posted by: dh | Sep 5 2022 23:49 utc | 137

@134

This article might be a good start. Baud worked with NATO and the UN and even in Ukraine in the lead up to this. Respected guy and tries hard to write objectively.

https://labourheartlands.com/jacques-baud-the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-update/

Posted by: polarbear4 | Sep 5 2022 23:53 utc | 138

@ 123

The war is happening because of US/NATO's inexorable, long-term striving to turn Ukraine into a Western political and military stronghold on Russia's borders. This is an existential threat to Russia on several levels, including national security and sovereignty in international affairs.

Since the end of the Cold War in 1989-91, Russia's made clear that maintaining buffer zones between itself and NATO is a national security priority of the highest importance. Since 2007, the Kremlin has warned that Russia would go to war, if necessary, to prevent US/NATO from turning Ukraine and Georgia into Western strongholds. Despite this fraught background, US/NATO persists in pursuing its geopolitical and military ambitions in Ukraine.

A secondary cause of this war is that Ukrainian nationalists, since coming to power through the 2014 Maidan, have been trying to forcibly Ukrainize the country's ethnic Russians, Russified Ukrainians, and Russophones. Note that these Russian-leaning Ukrainian citizens are living in parts of Ukraine that, historically, are territorially and demographically Russian. These people represent a large segment of Ukraine's population (maybe 25% of the total). Realistically, the Kremlin cannot be expected to take a passive attitude on the fate of these pro-Russians.

If you think about what I've outlined here, you'll quickly realize that many people in the West do indeed have valid reasons for sympathizing with Russia's position in this conflict.

Posted by: GW | Sep 5 2022 23:54 utc | 139

Russian are not in a hurry. Winter is coming and history show that all militaries campaigns have broken for the russian winter: Napoleon, Hitler. Ukrainians are begging winter clothes for 200 000 soldiers. They will have only non professional manpower left for that winter and this will be the end. [A lot of other good stuff] This is the russian strategy and it works very fine. Zelensky and films directors know that winter is the dead line, that's why they threw everything they can before rain and cold. But it's just madness.
Posted by: juanyves | Sep 5 2022 21:11 utc | 116

Excellent grasp of "cold" reality here, not to mention history, and an insightful glimpse into one reason for the insanity of this latest push by the Ukrainians. They worry that the "campaign season" is running short without stopping to think that they cannot achieve what they are setting out to achieve - winter or not. It is more than madness. The people in charge of this suicidal offensive have a wanton and callous disregard for human life. The professional officers who help to execute this insanity are abdicating their professional responsibility to their men.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Sep 6 2022 0:13 utc | 140

By golly those 1992 NATO borders are looking more achievable every day.

Perhaps by this time next year there will frank discussions on what to do with all those empty armories. Maybe mushroom farming would be a good metaphor for all those weapons into ploughshare conversions.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 6 2022 0:28 utc | 141

@139 @134
I read about half of that really long article. He makes some interesting points, you know it’s a good article. I don’t disagree with it necessarily about Ukraine, but it’s easy to tell that even if he is trying to be objective, he’s glossing over some glaring stuff that you just can’t gloss over.

Like, he glosses over Russia bombing cities saying essentially “some dude there says it isn’t so bad” Come on, you can’t deny what’s been documented from 10,000 different angles. Russia is bombing civilians like nobody has bombed since Vietnam. And speaking of Vietnam, yes Putin and Russia have a right to fear Nato expansion. But that doesn’t give him a right to do what he did. He had other options. The second most powerful man in the world and his only option is bombing cities to the ground?

And then “oh the poor Russian leaning Ukrainians”. You know what? I agree. Poor them. First they got abused by the Ukrainian ultra nationalists. Then they got abused by the separatists or “independentists” or whatever you want to call them. Then they got bombed indiscriminately by the Kremlin. And now they’re getting bombed all over again in the other direction. And they’ll probably get bombed 2 or 3 more times before this is all over.

If Putin really cared about the poor people of the Donbas, he would strive for peace. Instead, we see this absolute nightmarish bloodbath.

If you try to defend Putin, you are ignoring his methods. It’s like if a bully stole your lunch box so you murdered him with a screwdriver after class. I see why you were angry, but maybe your methods aren’t appropriate in civilized society?

Anyway I’m getting multiple responses from different angles, probably have to sign off to save my thumbs. But I think you guys can at least see where I’m coming from? Cmon none of these guys are good guys, it’s right there for the world to see.

Posted by: Random_mikuchan | Sep 6 2022 0:34 utc | 142

Random_mikuchan #134

Ukraine and Russia are full of snakes. Maybe Putin is a patient snake, but that still makes him a snake. What the world is witnessing is a sad squabble over a forsaken past.

The snakes are in the pockets of the capitalist oligarchs that primarily reside in the west and a scattered number of beautiful island hideaways.

These capitalist oligarchs, driven by greed, are the people who have absolute responsibility for all these wars over the past century.

The snake fight, as you see it, are the victims goaded by sharp sticks wielded by these oligarchs.

Know your enemy and lock up their mouthpieces like Murdock, Blinken, Nuland, Freeland, Truss and all the rest.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 6 2022 0:37 utc | 143

#141

I can see where you are coming from and I am pleased hear that the pain in your thumb is the extent of your writing capacity, let alone your comprehension of world events. Yes, give your thumb a rest for now.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 6 2022 0:43 utc | 144

It never ceases to amaze me how the western MSM keeps on plugging the same old easily debunked tag lines. Unprovoked? Since 2014 Ukraine has become even more of a hive of corruption. Bio research labs, organs, human trafficking, money laundering, the list goes on. As previous poster noted: the demand for new hearts just went way up! (brought to you by pfizer). I was just watching a video from Liseshansk (sp?) of a building where medical experiments were being performed. Signs in English, FDA letterheads, and ties to several extra-national pharma-corps.
In regard to the Kherson counter-offensive, its pretty hard to get a clear read. Although the train coming from Crimea appeared to be loaded with self propelled howitzers, so there's that. As far as "Ukrainians are ready to die" dont make me bitterly laugh. 10% of men are fighters the rest are along for the ride. If the multiple video posted by the territorial defense forces refusing to fight is any indication, I'd say its just a fiction.

Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 6 2022 0:48 utc | 145

@141. Please explain what kind of bombing of cities the RF is doing?

Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 6 2022 0:51 utc | 146

anti-spiegel.ru has a cluster of interesting reports today.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 6 2022 0:51 utc | 147

"...If Putin really cared about the poor people of the Donbas, he would strive for peace. Instead, we see this absolute nightmarish bloodbath..." Random_mikuchan@141

There were two Minsk agreements, supported by Russia, Germany and France and agreed to by Ukraine. Either would have brought peace to the Donbas and Ukraine.

As former Ukrainian President Poroshenko recently confirmed, Ukraine was under orders from NATO, to pretend to agree to Minsk while refusing to implement the provisions of the agreements-which would have given the eastern Ukrainian oblasts the same sort of autonomy that Canadian provinces enjoy. Instead they played for time building up forces to conquer the east militarily while assuring Russia that they would implement Minsk... tomorrow.

Russia's patience ran out when, in February, Ukraine concentrated a 200,000 man army on the borders of the two separatist 'republics' and began to shell separatist positions with increasing intensity. Thus signaling an impending invasion.

Had you been taking decisions in Moscow what would you have done differently?
Clearly you have no empathy for the persecuted Russian speaking civilians and considerable sympathy with the Nazi militias which have been terrorising the region for eight years. Would you have allowed the genocide and the mass flight of refugees to continue?

Posted by: bevin | Sep 6 2022 0:54 utc | 148

" Russian are not in a hurry. Winter is coming and history show that all militaries campaigns have broken for the russian winter "

Exactly. ukraine tries to persevere until the eighth day, when they gather in Ramstain to consider the future location of the depleted western weapons

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-08-29/second-ukraine-defense-meeting-ramstein-7142978.html
Defense leaders meeting at Ramstein again to discuss Ukraine

Ukraine needs some kind of victory before that becourse information warfare victory is not enough

Posted by: Gonzo | Sep 6 2022 0:56 utc | 149

GW: ‘Therefore Western MSM - especially English language media - reports the war through the lens of pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia war propaganda.’

There is a range of views across the Western media. Some of those views even get republished on this site, as per the quote in the lead item above from the Wall Street Journal, that ‘a breakthrough is unlikely’ and soon, ‘logistics shortfalls’ may force a change in US strategy.

So not all Western media are singing from the same hymn sheet.

I agree with you on one point: the Ukraine conflict represents a proxy war between NATO and Russia. It could not be otherwise. On 24 February, when Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, the scale of his ambition became clear: destroy NATO, destabilise the West, and restore Russia as a global, predatory power.

In light of this, the West had to take action. But it was Ukraine itself that bolstered the West to take a stand, through its determination to fight back. To date, none of Putin’s goals have been realised. Rather, the reverse: NATO has expanded, the West is (mostly) united, and Russia is struggling to subdue its smaller neighbour.

Posted by: MrB | Sep 6 2022 0:59 utc | 150

reply to 134

There is death and suffering all around and more to come - but I know one thing: if Putin wins, the whole world changes because the US/EU cabal will be finished.

It's a matter of balance. Instead of the US bullying everyone, real diplomacy will be required - unless they enjoy humiliation. I remember being a little boy wondering why the US was always mixed up in pointless wars - and this will never change unless other nations get stronger and the warmongers get weaker.

And then there's worse. I believe a nuclear holocaust is inevitable because the military industrial complex never stops pushing in that direction. The latest are "non strategic nuclear weapons" thought up by the Pentagon to be 'helpful". A big enough meteor strike will create a huge X ray burst kinetically. Did Russia experience Tunguska and Cheyabinsk? Let's throw hypersonics into the mix and station them next to Russia and see what happens. Oh, didn't you know that the Russians keep shelling the Ukr. nuclear power plant they control? (latest "The Hill") Hard to know which is worse - the idiotic lies or the sheer apathy , ironically in the land of Chernobyl

Give Russia/China the reins. As world powers, Britain was better than Spain and the US was better than Britain. Time for the US/EU mess to leave the stage.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 6 2022 1:00 utc | 151

Posted by: Random_mikuchan | Sep 6 2022 0:34 utc | 141
> And then “oh the poor Russian leaning Ukrainians”. You know what? I agree. Poor them.

Good, so you can root for Donbass people.
Root for the oppressed minority who rose against the oppressors.
If Putin was on Kiev side we would be all against him here.

Posted by: hopehely | Sep 6 2022 1:02 utc | 152


re karlof1 | Sep 5 2022 23:47 utc | 135
"....NATO: We give. Tell us your terms.

Russia: Disband, rescind all sanctions, and we'll write another Collective Security Treaty like the four you broke while restoring energy deliveries and resuming the status quo ante. Or something along those lines."

I agree with karlof. this is the way it's going to have to be.
nato will have to go back at least to its 1991 borders, as Russia made clear in its Dec 2021 security demands. And they were demands made by a much superior adversary than anyone in the US or European nato were willing to admit at the time. the US and nato will have to sign iron clad Security Agreements. like it or not, and they really really won't like it.

But the catch is that as long as the neo-cons are in control of US foreign policy and European nato is totally co-opted by the neo-cons, CIA and MI6,, it is going to be a very rocky road

there is another very serious and extremely dangerous consideration here, as Will Schryver recently wrote in an article; we don't know what the US Centralized Empire is really going to do once they realize their dominion over the entire planet earth is fast slipping away.

What will the US Empire do?? They certainly ain't gonna shrug their shoulders, whistle a sad tune, and walk away, now are they?


https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/09/the-moment-of-greatest-danger.html
The Moment of Greatest Danger

"....Simply put, it marks the end of the American empire.

And, as such, we are now at the most dangerous moment humanity has faced in the previous three-quarters of a century – very possibly in its entire history.

Now we will find out what the self-anointed Masters of Empire will do when faced with the impending loss of their dominion over the earth.

Something tells me they are highly unlikely to shrug their shoulders, wax philosophical about the whole thing, gather up all their military toys, and go home. To do so would signal to all their colonies and vassals that the jig is well and truly up; NATO will effectively cease as a meaningful and credible alliance; the European Union as presently constituted will quickly dissolve.

....All I know is that the moment of greatest danger in all our lives is now bearing down upon us. At some point – likely sooner than later – those who wield the power and control the levers of empire will make a move to preserve its dominion....."

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 6 2022 1:06 utc | 153

@polarbear #137, I see a lot to disagree with in Baud's article. This for example is a simple lie, there's no other way to put it and everyone here knows it:

there were never any Russian troops in the Donbass before 23-24 February 2022

But I have one question that I'd like to ask in all sincerity since I've seen this claim come up a number of times. Baud describes a "massive increase in shelling against population of [separatist regions of] Donbass" in the week leading up to the war, and reproduces a figure from OCSE described as a map of shellings from 19-20 February 2022.

That appears to be taken from this OCSE report:

https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-20-21%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf?itok=82567

And if you read the report, the violations are described as in Donetsk,

1,100 explosions (144 outgoing, 19 airbursts, 37 impacts and 900 undetermined)

and in Luhansk,

926 explosions (112 outgoing, 44 impacts and 770 undetermined)

In other words, 12.6% of the explosions were outgoing, 3.1% were impacts, and the rest were impossible to determine. I can see two ways of approaching that data: either you assume the ratio of outgoing to impact holds roughly true for the entire sample, which would suggest that a large majority of the shelling was *from* separatist regions *into* government regions. Or, you could say that there's no reason to think the pattern for known-type explosions holds true, and there is therefore no way to which side is most responsible for the escalation.

But how do you get from that data to Ukraine being responsible? Am I misreading something in the report? Explanations welcome.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 1:07 utc | 154

Sorry - forgot to include airbursts as a type of impacts, that raises the incoming figure to 4.9% rather than 3.1%, versus 12.6% outgoing. And of course it's OSCE not OCSE. I blame the whiskey.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 1:10 utc | 155

please don't feed the trolls

Posted by: ld | Sep 6 2022 1:11 utc | 156

If Putin really cared about the poor people of the Donbas, he would strive for peace. Instead, we see this absolute nightmarish bloodbath.

Posted by: Random_mikuchan | Sep 6 2022 0:34 utc

Putin tried to negotiate before the war and the west ignored him. Ukraine and Russia were negotiating in late March and the west via their envoy Boris Johnson drove Ukraine from the negotiating table. As reported by Fiona Hill, the agreement was only going to be like the 2021 status quo. Crimea as part of Russia and the subset-of-Donbas breakaway areas kept as either (not specified) a semi-autonomous part of Ukraine or independent.

The motto of the western leader is "Give war a chance". Negotiations for peace are not in their game plan.

Posted by: Simon | Sep 6 2022 1:13 utc | 157

reply to 152

Strangely, is it possible that there will be NO reaction by the US to the End Of Empire?

The whole exodus from Afghanistan was astonishing as to the utter lack of any proper reaction. In particular, intelligence agencies should have been dragged in front of Congress in chains. The public didn't care either. An abject defeat such as this should have triggered near revolution - instead, nothing.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 6 2022 1:21 utc | 158

Posted by: Pacifica_Advocate | Sep 5 2022 17:37 utc | 85
The Oligarchs are the problem. Eliminating them is the solution.

Don't know if this is on topic, for what it is worth if it gets published?

Unless you change the system <=it will not matter how many oligarch you eliminate; its the system that produces the oligarch.

Maybe the corporations and patents and copyrights and other instruments of privatization of monopoly powers produced by the nation states exercising their rule of law monopoly powers are the problem..? Monopoly power controlled by private or special interest almost always expresses itself as a barrier to quality of life, liberty & pursuit happiness desired by ordinary humans.

Preventing the power of nation states to produce and privatize monopoly powers might solve the problem you address? Until a solution to that monopoly power creation and privatization by rule of law is addressed, humanity will see the Oligarchs waste as much humanity as they need to, to make their profits.

What would be the value of a software company if it had no copyright <=to use to deny others the right to compete with its software.. ? What would be the value of a hardware company <=if the hardware producer had no patent <=to deny others the ability to develop and produce devices and hardware that are cheaper, better, and more useful than the hardware produced and sold by the hardware patent owner? Tanks, airplanes and all of their parts and processes are expressions of internationally copyrighted and patented processes, software and hardware.

Patent law is not God's law. God never gave herself or any human anything like a patent or a copyright. Nor did she give any of her monopoly powers to a nation state or to those private persons who own and control the nation state by virtue of a patent or copyright or other monopoly power? So where do the right of nations to make these monopoly powers come from?

The problem is not with the governments per se<=maybe with their design, the problem is not with the leadership of the governments per se <=maybe the personal integrity of the politician, but the problem is: that the oligarch have been using the nation state law making powers<= to enrich themselves. That enrichment has enabled the oligarch to use fictitious persons (corporations, partnerships and trust, etc) to become wealthy without risking any Oligarch owned personal wealth. When the deal fails the state eats the loss; the governed pay the cost; when the deal succeeds the Oligarch pockets the benefit.

This heads I win tails you lose game the Oligarch have been playing has made them so rich, so powerful that he or she has become the person in charge of everything. Such power has become so obvious that we now understand it places the Oligarch in powerful positions <=so that the Oligarch gets to decide who is to be the leader of the nation state, and also the oligarch gest to dictate the shape, form and operation of the political, social, propaganda, economic, religious and cultural aspects of the nation state; while the nation state governs the masses for the benefit of the Oligarch.

The nation state is an expression of the oligarch. The nation state intentions are those of the Oligarch, The design and use of the nation state by the Oligarch remains mostly invisible and nearly always unimpeded by those who the nation state governs. Often on this list, people talk about getting Putin instead of Russia.. but Putin could not exist without the support of the global Oligarch, IMO.

The corporate wealth war produces<= has made the atrocities of war, worth while to the Oligarch. The longer war takes; the richer become the few; and the fewer become the many.

Posted by: snake | Sep 6 2022 1:25 utc | 159

I see the Baud syndrome has re-emerged.

Baud is NATO. Baud speaks with forked tongue and neatly fragmented memory.

Baud is not plausible but he seems believable to those in need of a fraud upon which to assemble their incredible castle of lies.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 6 2022 1:26 utc | 160

UAF can be credited for their plugging up the holes t the cost of many of their lives. RF has been fighting it carefully. Fewest RF casualties as possible even if the pace is extremely slow. UAF has used huge network of trenches, forests and cities-towns-villages. RF has kept their meat grinder going day in and day out patiently waiting for collapses that allow them to move up, rinse and repeat.
In 1972 the Vietnam war was likely lost. The one thing the North Vietnamese had to do was move vast troops and equipment right down the road (so to speak). They weren't fighting jungle warfare anymore and they paid a steep price for being out in the open. Likely took then 18 months to replenish their losses. The moral of that story is being in the open was lethal to them. UAF can't go into the open, that's not how this war works. Short of RF simply lacking the troops, the will and/or firepower supplies, an actual UAF counteroffensive can't work. It runs counterintuitive to the reality of this war. So unless RF is running low on will, troops of firepower supplies, every day this goes on will be lethal to UAF, every day that lethality will get worse.

Posted by: Corsair66 | Sep 6 2022 1:31 utc | 161

@ ld | Sep 6 2022 1:11 utc | 155

ditto that!

some completely brainwashed person steps into the bar spouting trash like he is spouting wisdom ought to be ignored.......he fact they open their mouth, as opposed to reading is a very bad sign... one mouth, two ears and two eyes, but they choose their mouth first, lol...

Posted by: james | Sep 6 2022 1:37 utc | 162

snake #158

To antidote tendencies that lead to wars such as we have in Ukraine, Iraq, Palestine, Syria, Libya, Yemen etc, I am for terminating the oligarchs asap. Thus rising opportunist turds get to see their likely fate and might just keep away from the levers of the war machine.

Yes the system obviously provides secure avenues for these scoundrels to fatten and emerge so that too should be changed.

These should be the minimum conditions of guaranteeing the social framework and transaction ethics within that framework: Tax wealth. All shareholding should be absolutely transparent so as to trace and tax and reveal the wealthy. All attempts at anonymity in financial transactions should be criminal and subject to immediate confiscation. Sure there could be much more regulation for a peace dividend but that's it for now.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 6 2022 1:40 utc | 163

OK, now I'm confused. OSCE also has a tabular report of ceasefire violations for the same day which is useful...

https://www.osce.org/files/b/c/table_ceasefire--2022-02-20.pdf?itok=82567

...but it has far fewer incidents than the numbers in the "full report". Hoping someone who speaks OSCE will chime in to clear this up. What the tabular data shows is:

5 incoming and 2 outgoing explosions in government-controlled areas
8 incoming and 24 outgoing explosions in separatist-controlled areas
All the rest "undetermined"

Seems extremely consistent with the escalation in ceasefire violations being mainly from increased separatist shelling of government positions but I don't get the discrepancy on overall numbers.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 2:17 utc | 164

The US spent something like 1.1 trillion if the second Iraq war and 2.3 trillion in Afghanistan. We are far from those numbers at this point.

Bravery notwithstanding, there are plenty more Ukrainians left to run the numbers up for the MIC. I do not think they will be happy with a trillion dollars and there is not much going on in the world now for them to make money. This has to be a 10 year operation for the MIC to make it worth-whiled.

The oil side is doing well. The MIC side has a long way to go. Its a sick joke but it is reality. No help in sight on the political front in the West. They are all steeped in their religion of death.

Posted by: circumspect | Sep 6 2022 2:23 utc | 165

How the heck is Russia getting its logistics (ammo, food, etc) across the river -- any news on that? I'm thinking about a recent video of an alleged ferry boat hit with lots of smoke, near the main bridge. There would be no need for ferry boats if the bridge were still usable. Is it done by air somehow?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 6 2022 2:28 utc | 166

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 6 2022 2:28 utc | 165
I am no expert but I assume that for some bridges it would be possible to move people and light loads even vehicles, but nit heavy equipment. I am guessing it might be possible to walk quite a bit of stuff over a bridge when it is dark.

Posted by: watcher | Sep 6 2022 2:41 utc | 167

"In other words, 12.6% of the explosions were outgoing, 3.1% were impacts, and the rest were impossible to determine." Slothrop, Random Mikuchan, MrB, Yenwoda @ 153.
Glad to see your thumb is better. And this is the problem when you delegate your trolling to the hired help; the troll doesn’t even realize that b has already posted articles on this (and he actually did the research). The troll should have asked his manager or CO if he could have time to research on the blog. Possible explenations: i) maybe it’s paid by word count instead of hourly in quarter hour increments; ii) it’s lacking in reading comprehension; iii) it has the attention span of a gnat (or goldfish, take your pick).

Posted by: scuppers | Sep 6 2022 2:48 utc | 168

@141

even the bezopost had to admit that the only time russia shelled civilians was when the ukrainians made sure to be mingled with them, which is their strategy. russia goes out of her way to not kill the people whose lives they are liberating. the ukrainians are still bombing the Dombas, at times with cluster bombs.

has russia ever bombed civilians w/o the ukrainians shelling from among them? i don't know, maybe. but the "brutal" you speak of is much more likely to come from the other side, especially when it's the large nazi contingent, who believe that russians are not human.

after this whole thing, i'll never trust a thing the western news puts out. and btw, jacques baud would not gloss over brutality, if he saw it. and he does write about the nazis. he was trying to make sure that there were less arms, not more.

he has updates here and there, as well. this is a great place to learn about things. pretty much everyone cites their source, at least most of the time, unless they are opining and honing their writing...

@159 uncle tungsten

i agree with a lot of your posts, but agree to disagree on baud. yes, he was nato and he bends over backwards to be "objective," at times going too far, imo.

but he is a great first read for people who have been listening to the western news and he definitely has great arguments. all the moreso because he did work with nato and the un. not sure if you read it all the way through, plus his updates. i've had at least one friend come around a lot, and that's saying something. i live in liberal land and they are a closed minded lot.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Sep 6 2022 2:48 utc | 169

@153 ocse has a reputation for bias, for one. saw a clip where there trash was mixed in with nazi trash in a bunker. also, doesn't matter whose side did what.

donbass didn't accept the 2014 coup, they wanted autonomy because they were getting shelled for speaking russian and not liking usa coups and being subhuman, apparently. the ukrainians brought the war to them, they were defending.

in a later update, he states the approximate number of russians he found there and believes it to be a small and unimportant number. signing off...

Posted by: polarbear4 | Sep 6 2022 3:01 utc | 170

@ watcher | Sep 6 2022 2:41 utc | 166
Okay, now I'm looking at a map, which I should have done, and there must be shipments coming SW from Donbass. Anyhow, it doesn't seem to be a problem. . .Logistics is King!

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 6 2022 3:03 utc | 171

@scuppers #167, I'd like to take your word for it but will have to ask for a link since my googling skills only came up with posts like this, where @b claims incorrectly that the OCSE map shows impact sites, rather than reported explosions including (mostly) outgoing fires:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/ukraine-who-is-firing-at-whom-and-who-is-lying-about-it.html

If you're wrong that this topic was discussed resulting in a good explanation for why it really does show Ukraine escalating, then @b has my full permission to reproduce or link to my comments here when he adds a correction to those inaccurate posts. I know his intent is not to misinform.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 6 2022 3:13 utc | 172

There is a bit of hand-wringing and pearl clutching about what-if’s and could the Ukies do this or that. I personally take solace in the pronouncements of the RU readouts and general statements such as 10% of Russian forces engaged, and Putin’s statement about not having even begun anything yet. Why? Because the Russians haven’t lied about everything under the sun as the U.S. has (for the majority of my lifetime). A low bar, I admit. But there it is. You can add to that, that pretty much everything that the Russians have said, later turns out to be exactly the case. That works for me.
That being the case, any promising development from the Ukie exertions will be temporary, and the Russians can just fly in, rail in, truck in, land in, a division or two (or several regiments/multiple brigades/about 10 BTGs ((that’s for you MrB))), lock up the Ukrainian push and then annihilate it. And they don’t even have to break a sweat.
It is terrible. It is an enormous waste of Ukrainian lives. And that is war. And that’s why you don’t go to war unless you have absolutely no other choice. And that responsibility is on the west and the clown that plays piano with his dick; laugh it up chuckles. And then burn in hell.

Posted by: scuppers | Sep 6 2022 3:19 utc | 173

ZH has a posting up with title

Russia Admits Weaponization Of Gas, Halts NS1 Shipments "Until Sanctions Lifted" As EU Prepares Response To Energy Crisis

The take away quote


Putin is done playing around.

Two days after Russia indefinitely halted nat gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for the amusing reason that there was an "oil leak" (shown below)...

... on Monday Russia finally admitted what everyone has known since February - namely that it has weaponized commodities in response to the West's weaponization of currencies (as Zoltan Pozsar has said all along),when the Kremlin said that Russia’s gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not resume in full until the “collective west” lifts sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, blamed EU, UK, and Canadian sanctions for Russia’s failure to deliver gas through the key pipeline, which delivers gas to Germany from St Petersburg via the Baltic sea.

“The problems pumping gas came about because of the sanctions western countries introduced against our country and several companies,” Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency. “There are no other reasons that could have caused this pumping problem.”

Peskov’s comments were the most stark demand yet by the Kremlin that the EU roll back its sanctions in exchange for Russia resuming gas deliveries to the continent. It also confirms that Russia no longer needs to pretend it needs to export commodities to Europe - after all it has more than enough demand in China and India - and is willing to give Europe just enough to rope to... well, you know the rest.

The shit show continues until it doesn't

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 6 2022 3:21 utc | 174

@summary

"In the districts of Voznesensk and OCHAKOVA, Mykolaiv region, two depots of missile and artillery weapons and ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed, where over one and a half thousand rockets for multiple rocket launchers were stored, including more than two hundred missiles for US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers."

If accurate, how were these numbers determined? I presume these devices were not painstakingly disassembled with a screwdriver. If shelled at range surely it would be difficult to be so precise given the conflagration produced by tons of HE and rocket propellant.

Posted by: RTX | Sep 6 2022 3:23 utc | 175

@scuppers #167, I'd like to take your word for it but will have to ask for a link since my googling skills only came up with posts like this, where @b claims incorrectly that the OCSE map shows impact sites, rather than reported explosions including (mostly) outgoing fires: Yenwoda et al @171

Gee, would love to help you out, but I'm not getting paid as you are. You can do your own reading here in this blog, and you don't even have to use Google or the intertubes. Unless you want to pay me a finders fee of course (rubles only please). That can be arranged.

As for you thinking that you have information that b hasn't considered, or that b is putting out bad information, well that's between you and b.

There you go b, slothrop, I mean Yenwoda has thrown down the gauntlet... care to respond?

Posted by: scuppers | Sep 6 2022 3:49 utc | 176

Posted by: RTX | Sep 6 2022 3:23 utc | 174

I suspect that Russia has an advantage in the east of Ukraine, in that it seems to have very good information sources. Given that until 1990 and later, most of the people thought of themselves as Russian, this is hardly surprising.

Similarly Ukraine has fairly good information sources in the Russian held areas, although they do not seem quite as good as those of the Russian sources in Ukraine. Again not a surprise, given history. If of course Russia was occupying the western provinces of Ukraine, I suspect information sources would dry up

Posted by: watcher | Sep 6 2022 3:52 utc | 177

Commission holds Russia responsible for the shelling of the nuclear power plant!
So now already reported in the German media!
And that before publication of the report today !!

Posted by: mo3 | Sep 6 2022 4:02 utc | 178

psychohistorian @ 173

He is blaming the sanctions for the loss of nat gas not saying it is a countermeasure but implying that it is parts and contractor availability. It probably is a countermeasure as it should be. Typical Zerohedge headlining. The little oil leak is an excuse in my opinion not being there. I have seen different types of compressors leak their whole run. So Russia is still supplying gas to Europe but apparently it will not be enough.

I wonder if that is under a long term contract or did that contract expire and are they getting paid the current going rate in rubles no less?

RTX @ 174

Thumbnail estimates? Long term observations from drones? Watch them fill the depot then blow it up? Victory Porn? On the ground reports? Who knows.

@ 171 174 167 et all

There is a search bar on the website. Use it to your full imagination
Ukraine - Who Is Firing At Whom And Who Is Lying About It?

Posted by: circumspect | Sep 6 2022 4:08 utc | 179

Reply to @123: As a US taxpayer, I identify very much with the people of the Russian Federation. For the past 30 years, the US government has treated both of us like garbage. US is a military dictatorship, not a country, has made 50+ attempts to overthrow other governments since 1945 and continues doing so. US has illegally seized and continues to occupy one third of Syria. US also steals the oil from Syrian land. If you try to set foot on the land, US will shoot you. Why doesn't anyone ever bomb the US and steal one third of its land? Someone has got to stop the US. I can't do it, but I hope the Russian Federation can. As to Ukraine, it's been a US colony for 30 years, meaning funded by US taxpayers, 42 million of whom live in poverty. If your country accepts US "help," your country ceases to exist, will be plundered to death.

Posted by: susan mullen | Sep 6 2022 4:08 utc | 180

@ my 165
How the heck is Russia getting its logistics (ammo, food, etc) across the river . .
from a US friend of the Ukies. . .FB quote

These are actually excellent developments. All of the bridges are destroyed from the Kherson battlefield leading back into Crimea. Thus the Russians are trapped. The only supplies getting to them are a trickle either by helicopter or by barge and neither of those methods are enough to sustain that force.
Thus the Russians are now running out of fuel. Soon they'll be running out of spare parts, batteries, ammunition and reducing rations even more.
1st Video: Captured Russian Airborne Forces BMD-2 which has run out of fuel.
2nd Video: Another Captured RU ABN Forces BMD-2 being towed into a collection area totally out of fuel.
Pictures. Russian Naval Infantry T-72 Obr. 89 MBT also out of fuel abandoned on the battlefield.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 6 2022 4:17 utc | 181

# Nostradamus 42
Psychosis when you are frazy but you don't knowvyouvare crazy. Truth serking when you are being lied to by diseased, professional liars requires speculation which involves trying to project your mind into the necessity for lying , when lying is a mutually destructive force.

It's obvious that the West's dogmatic lies about the benefits of theft, colonisation, stem from Psychosis. It's not obvious that the process of unravelling the lies is psychotic. It is a natural response to having your brain fixed by lies.

The two processes are not morally or psychologically equivalent. Morality is doing The Boss's / God's will. Politics is doing what you think you want by
subverting God's will. There are perverters on both sides of the capitalist- Communust divide.

If all Russia and China want from Ukraine is a big train to Europe, bypassing the present sea routes, they can go to hell.
But if Russia and China want to stop the Cowboy colonisers from wrecking the world, I for one am on their side.

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 6 2022 4:17 utc | 182

@summary @174

I presume:
The Russians got hold of the stock take documents generated by the Ukrainians.

Posted by: digital dinosaur | Sep 6 2022 4:18 utc | 183

@ scuppers | Sep 6 2022 3:49 utc | 175

lol.. and a mighty scary looking gauntlet it is!

Posted by: james | Sep 6 2022 4:18 utc | 184

Don Bacon @ 179

I thought the Ukrainians were crossing pontoon bridges as well to create the bulge in the Southern Front. All of their pontoon bridges are reported destroyed according to the summary today. The Russians still have a large amount of aviation and air they can throw in.

It is a battle to the death. Mechanized Infantry vs air. Glad I am not there facing down an alligator.

Posted by: circumspect | Sep 6 2022 4:28 utc | 185

“To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”
— Henry Kissinger

Posted by: Simon | Sep 6 2022 4:30 utc | 186

@watcher

Thank you! Very interesting.

By the way how do you get the date and post number to show up in the header? Sorry for stupid question.

Posted by: RTX | Sep 6 2022 4:42 utc | 187

@jhill

"That raised a thought. Post SMO Ukraine will, as they keep doing what they're doing, have a demographic profile much like that of post WWI France. Widows and marriageable age women will find themselves competing for the few men available. Taking the maimed and the crippled. Throwing women into the fight is repellent, even to coke head Nazis. Wonder if the OC will find Biblical justification for polygamy?"

I assume if Russia wins they will marry Russian men or find a way into the West.

Also, are Ukrainian women allowed to vote?

Posted by: RTX | Sep 6 2022 4:48 utc | 188

RTX | Sep 6 2022 4:42 utc | 185
?…date and post number to show up in the header?
1: open word doc or raw text editor (as site reply window can be afflicted by gremlins)
2: Copy name + time and post number (esp include time, as post no. can change if b deletes posts)
3: Write your words of erudition
4: Refresh site page
5: Paste pearls into reply window
6: Preview
7: Post

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 6 2022 5:11 utc | 189

Ok - so all manual then! Thanks!!

Posted by: RTX | Sep 6 2022 5:17 utc | 190

@158 snake
Your analysis of the mechanics of war, materiel, and the state, simply brilliant and right on target.

Posted by: HelenB | Sep 6 2022 5:19 utc | 191

Scuppers: ‘…fly in, rail in, truck in, land in, a division or two (or several regiments/multiple brigades/about 10 BTGs…’

You’d think that in this day and age it would be unthinkable that an armed forces could be isolated to the point where it becomes difficult to supply them with the needed resources.

The Ukrainians have air superiority in the Kherson region. They have precision missiles to take out railways, bridges, roads, barges, etc.

We have seen the results in Crimea over the past month. A number of supply depots and aircraft were destroyed. This has probably hampered the Russians’ ability to supply its troops. They have to move farther back beyond the lines, out of the range of missiles, thus making those lines more insecure.

It’s been reported that some Russian forces are surrendering, and attack helicopters need to fly long distances before reaching Kherson. These are signs of stretched supply lines and a demoralised army, possibly worried they might get caught in a Stalingrad-style trap.

The above are not slam-dunk advantages, but they give Ukraine a fighting chance.

Posted by: MrB | Sep 6 2022 5:32 utc | 192

Posted by: RTX | Sep 6 2022 5:17 utc | 191

On my system much easier than for Mel

1 just highlight the poster -whole line- sometimes I miss the p in posted.
2. left click and press copy
3. go to top of comment area and press control v for paste

Posted by: watcher | Sep 6 2022 5:34 utc | 193

Posted by: MrB | Sep 6 2022 5:32 utc | 193

What do you mean by air superiority. That is obvious rubbish. Ukraine has not has air superiority anywhere since Feb 24. They can occasionally fly a plane or two but certainly no way they have air superiority.

Posted by: watcher | Sep 6 2022 5:37 utc | 194

@ scuppers | Sep 6 2022 3:49 utc | 175
lol.. and a mighty scary looking gauntlet it is!
Posted by: james | Sep 6 2022 4:18 utc | 185

I know right?? Careful b, Yenwoda has Google skills! Mad skillzz!

Posted by: scuppers | Sep 6 2022 5:53 utc | 195

We have seen the results in Crimea over the past month. A number of supply depots and aircraft were destroyed. This has probably hampered the Russians’ ability to supply its troops. Posted by: MrB | Sep 6 2022 5:32 utc | 193

How many? A couple? A few? If you think that that is hampering the Russians, and for the sake of argument, I'll grant your assertion, how is it going then for the Ukrainians, where Russia takes out supply depots and aircraft on a daily basis...for 7 months! What? The Ukies are superhuman and don't need no stinkin' supplies? Or airplanes? Your argument falls flat on it's face. Face it Jack, the Ukies are getting annihilated, wiped out, obliterated. And yes, the Russians can reinforce anywhere and at will if needed. Oh, and I'm still waiting for an answer to my questions to you; the easiest being if you have any idea what a BTG is?

Posted by: scuppers | Sep 6 2022 6:10 utc | 196

@ watcher | Sep 6 2022 5:37 utc | 195

Don't feed the trolls please and thank you....as you note, they are easy to pick out.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 6 2022 6:11 utc | 197

Posted by: watcher | Sep 6 2022 5:34 utc | 194

Got it! Thank you too.

Posted by: RTX | Sep 6 2022 6:14 utc | 198

@Don Bacon | Sep 6 2022 2:28 utc | 167

How the heck is Russia getting its logistics (ammo, food, etc) across the river -- any news on that?
Railway bridge at Nova Kakhovka plus several pontoon bridges I think. Maybe the Antonovsky bridge is out of operation for now, but I don't think it is terminally damaged.

The Soviet army crossed the Dniepr using pontoon bridges during WWII with Luftwaffe attacks, so I presume they can do it today when they have total air superiority.

There is also Antonivsʹkyy Zaliznychnyy railway bridge which isn't the same as the other Antonovskiy Bridge .

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 6 2022 6:33 utc | 199

@ Random_mikuchan

Most people here “root” for most of humanity, including most Russians *and*, less obviously, most Ukrainians. They see NATO, with its 70 years of offensive wars and imperialism, as the antagonist.

Spend a month carefully reading the articles posted here since the beginning of the year. It’ll be worth your time.

If you keep posting without making that investment, it’ll show and I’ll doubt your sincerity in wanting to learn.

Posted by: dfg | Sep 6 2022 7:19 utc | 200

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