Kherson 'Counteroffensive' - Zelenski Is Going For Broke
After the first Ukrainian attempt to push towards had failed it is now reinforcing that failure. As I describe the move:
The only 'successful' attack was across the Inhulet river near Andriivka in the direction of the dam and river crossing that closes off the Kakhovka Dnieper reservoir.
The troops were cut off and mostly destroyed. On the western side of the salient a Russian unit crossed the Inhulet towards north and attacked the Ukrainians on that side. It soon had to pull back and the Ukrainians used the Russian crossing to reconnect with the cut off units in the salient.
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The political leadership of Ukraine is committed to continue this massacre. The Ukrainian Telegram channel 'Resident' reported:
Our source in the OP said that Zelensky holds a meeting every day on the counteroffensive in the South of Ukraine, at the moment the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to create a foothold in the Krivoy Rog direction. Zalusky reported on the heavy fighting and losses suffered by the Ukrainian army in the steppes, but the political center of influence insist on continuing the #Battle_for_Kherson operation.Reserves from the eastern front and Kharkov will be transferred to the Dnepropetrovsk region, in order to achieve the advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, no information will be officially published in the media until the seizure of territories.
Earlier another war observer noted:
Ukrainian channel Legitimny reports Helensky is prepared to sacrifice up to 20K dead and 40k wounded in the Kherson offensive, which would be 6% of his army. Current losses are around 2% so he's going for 2nd offensive wave.
I believe that 60,000 men are more than 10% of the Ukrainian army but that is not the point.
'Resident' and 'Legitimny' are seen as authoritative Ukrainian sources. Unfortunately I have no access to the their Telegram channels so I can not verify the quotes. But it seems clear that Zelenski is going for broke.
Zalusky, the military leader of the Ukrainian army, will not be happy with this decision.
The only Ukrainian hope is that the Russian forces on the western side of the Dnieper can be cut off from the other side to then run out of supplies. The bridges across are damaged or destroyed but Russia has enough ferries to keep the supply line open. Large river crossing are part of every bigger Russian military training event. It has the materials and troops experienced with it. That is why I have my doubt that the Ukrainian hope can be realized.
Meanwhile the Russian military plays its usual defensive game. The frontline along the Kherson regions is currently held by lightly armored airmobile units. Whenever a Ukrainian push gets too strong they pull back from the front line, or leave the town under threat, to let the artillery and airforce do its work. They then pull up mobile reinforcements and push back until they are in their old positions. Rinse and repeat.
While this tactic costs the Russian side some losses the much higher ones are on the Ukrainian side.
The former Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar writes:
Russia’s “domain control” can be put in perspective: the enemy is, on the one hand, caught on the bare steppe and cut down with the overwhelming superiority of Russian artillery and aviation, and, on the other hand, encountering well-fortified, entrenched defence lines.That said, Zelensky cannot give up, as he is desperately in need of a success story. Kiev still hopes to reverse the situation, but how that is achievable remains to be seen.
Against this sombre backdrop, more and more sceptical voices are being heard in the US about the Biden Administration’s policy trajectory. The latest is an opinion piece in Wall Street Journal by Gen. (Retd) Mark Kimmitt, formerly Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs in the Bush administration. Kimmitt predicts that “a breakthrough is unlikely” and soon, “logistics shortfalls” may force a change in US strategy.
...
In principle, the options are: i) “dig deeper into NATO stockpiles being held back for national defences”; ii) “ramp up critical shortfalls” by invoking Defense Production Act and its European equivalents; iii) escalate the conflict by targeting Crimea and Russia itself; or, iv) forcing Zelensky to face the grim reality that “diminishing resupplies” of weaponry actually contains “the message of declining outside support” for the war itself.The retired general with Republican Party leanings concludes: “Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later… Looking into a future of protracted war, diminishing high-tech systems and mounting casualties, Mr. Zelensky and NATO must face up to tough decisions before those decisions are forced on them.”
Of those four options the first will be rejected by the professional military. The second is, at least in Europe, currently impossible for lack of cheap energy. Metal smelters and forges in Europe are shutting down. The third option, escalation, is the one the neoconservatives will press for, likely with some success. The fourth option is one Joe Biden and other are yet unwilling to take.
I therefore expect that the U.S. will double down, most likely with some new attacks on Crimea and the Kerch bridges.
Posted by b on September 5, 2022 at 12:12 UTC | Permalink
next page »On the western side of the salient a Russian unit crossed the Inhulet towards north and attacked the Ukrainians on that side. It soon had to pull back and the Ukrainians used the Russian crossing to reconnect with the cut off units in the salient.
had to pull back or cunningly chose to pull back? Sounds like a variation on their classic cauldron technique to increase the yield on a maturing cauldron. "Pump-n-cauld". Although from the earlier maps I was already anticipating a second cauldron forming on the right bank, maybe that was the more favoured result for the Russians - in which case they have a good alibi to try again, and if it does not work out I'm sure the NATO advisors will be game for a second round of "pump-n-cauld". They never learn. The Ukrainians should give their NATO advisors the sack and hire Russian advisors.
Posted by: BM | Sep 5 2022 12:27 utc | 2
NATO without Uncle Sam is less than nothing. The NATO secretary-general is traditionally a lifelong bureaucrat and general military ignoramus whose only purpose is to regurgitate lines cooked up in Washington. If Boris J. were to become NATO sec-gen that'd change nothing. He too would be a sock-puppet, not a 'leader.'
Saw an article, forget where, that strongly suggests at least a trebling down. It seems that Washington has decided that Moscow^'s threats against weapons shipments is a bluff which may be safely called. So I assume this means cross-border destruction. As Prezmysl has yet to be vaporised, doubtless the Romanians aren't unduly worried. Assume the river barges carrying grain there, with much attendant hype, are not returning empty. Getting around ships arriving in Odessa.
Personally, I pay no attention to supposed pro-Russian bloggers. People who pretend Great military knowledge without paying attention to operational security just aren't credible. As for this 'Strelkov' fellow he may or may not have some experience in deception and co-opting defectors but seems to have been a resounding failure in the past. His bitterness must stem from his feeling of personal betrayal.
Posted by: DilNir | Sep 5 2022 12:31 utc | 3
The political leadership of Ukraine is committed to continue the massacre of the Ukrainian ppl and the political leadership of the EU is committed to continue the massacre of the European ppl.
The energy crisis is made in Germany and Brussels. The same goes for the food crisis.
Posted by: DG | Sep 5 2022 12:31 utc | 4
Remarkably enough, the Euro-accent seems to be on getting through THIS winter. Apparently forgetting that winter comes every year.
Posted by: DilNir | Sep 5 2022 12:33 utc | 5
The real only hope, a thin one, is that Zalusky and the Ukraine army high command, appalled at the waste of lives, overthrows Zelensky despite his US/Azov protection. As Zelensky doubles and triples down the Kherson offensive, maybe there's a chance.
Reserves from the eastern front and Kharkov will be transferred to the Dnepropetrovsk region, in order to achieve the advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, no information will be officially published in the media until the seizure of territories.
As I stated earlier....
Once Ukraine has lost it's strategic reserves, will be the time Allied forces 3rd Corps charges north up the Denipr to enfilade Ukie forces on the Novorossian Front.
It would seem the Kherson operation is destroying Ukie reserves, from the above quote...
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 5 2022 12:35 utc | 7
Mr. Porn Comedian is going down to the last Ukies. Ukraine may yet collapse BEFORE this winter sets in. Or am I being too optimistic?
Just because some former Indian diplomat lists 4 scenarios does not mean there are only those scenarios. There could be a coup by the Ukrainian military BEFORE this winter sets in. What happens afterwards is anybody's guess. But a lopsided negotiated peace deal is definitely on the table.
My prediction: Russia will get more than the $300 billion stolen by the US/EU in terms of Ukrainian terrortories, she will get a completely neutered Ukraine.
Posted by: Sam Smith | Sep 5 2022 12:36 utc | 8
Krivoy Rog ?
Isn't that where the Cokehead and his wife hail from ?
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Sep 5 2022 12:36 utc | 9
LInks to tg channels Rezident and Legitimniy
https://t.me/rezident_ua/13944
Posted by: Paco | Sep 5 2022 12:40 utc | 10
Kherson lost : water trouble in Crimea. NATO has an interest in Crimea. The Maidan coup likely precipitated the freeing of Crimea as NATO intended to oust the Russian Black Sea fleet from Sebastopol (ignoring a signed agreement). And we know which country tears up agreements at will, the while loudly declaiming national interests. This part doesn't apply to 'adversaries^, naturally. :-)
Posted by: DilNir | Sep 5 2022 12:41 utc | 11
The Vindman brothers just reported on CNN that Kherson has been taken over by the Ukrainian Army - ?????
Usual disinformation ?????
Posted by: georgeg | Sep 5 2022 12:42 utc | 12
From IntelSlava
According to Ukrop Legitimny channel this was the setup for Kherson offensive, wave 1-2 got completely destroyed.- the first wave: strike groups of special forces.
Approximate 5.000 people- the second wave: immediately after the first, regular units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which went through the spring campaign and have good combat experience.
Approximate participation 10.000 people- the third and fourth wave: it is underway now, and consists of additional special forces and Armed Forces of Ukraine with combat experience of at least four months.
Approximate number of participants: 10.000- the fifth wave, now being brought from the rear: it consists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense. Approximate number: 20.000
Posted by: Down South | Sep 5 2022 12:45 utc | 13
What is the civilian situation in Andreevka? Lots of Russian-speaking human shields I think, aren't there?
Posted by: BM | Sep 5 2022 12:48 utc | 14
The Vindman brothers should be labelled agents of influence working for a foreign power.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 5 2022 12:49 utc | 15
I was Kimmitts squad leader at USMA. We have a saying at the Academy. Plebes constantly recite “ Sir, All I am or ever hope to be I owe to my first detail squad leader”. He knows a great deal more than he is writing about in this article. He is holding back. To his credit, he has opened the door to the option of negotiations on a major MSM mouthpiece. Upon graduation he became a “Red Leg”. He know artillery’s capabilities.
Dog
Posted by: Physicsdog | Sep 5 2022 12:49 utc | 16
Rybar update
@Rybar has just published the first updated map on the situation on the Kherson front and in the Andreevka salient in 27 hours. (On previous days they published up to three maps a day.) The salient is getting smaller. Ukrainians are still throwing in fresh forces.
The situation in the Mykolayiv-Kryvyi Rih direction as of 15.00 September 5, 2022By the seventh day since the beginning of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson, the front line had stabilized. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not abandon attempts to transfer reserves and expand the bridgehead for further advancement to Novaya Kakhovka and Kherson, but they still cannot develop success.
🔻 Since night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to build up a strike force and transfer equipment to the Posad-Pokrovsky section : reinforcements arrived in the Red Banner (Lyubomirovka), Novogrigorovka and Posad-Pokrovskoye. Units of the 28th and 59th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reinforced the Yavorivskaya 24th brigade.
Russian units of the 7th Airborne Division and 20th Motorized Rifle Division are firing artillery at the reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, preventing them from going on the offensive and suppressing artillery firing positions.
Units of 33 SMEs conducted a successful raid on enemy positions from Ternovy Pod and captured the commander of a company of the 59th ombr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a detachment of nationalists from the Right Sector.
🔻 On the Snigirevsky sector of the front, everything is relatively calm: the RF Armed Forces periodically suppress the firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and thwart sorties. The observation post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kiselevka was destroyed from the ATGM.
🔻 On the Andreevsky site front, the battles were localized in the narrow "gut" Andreevka - Sukhoi Stavok. Kostroma was taken under the control of the RF Armed Forces, one of the established crossings over the Ingulets was destroyed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to transfer individual pieces of equipment along a narrow corridor.
Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces operates without interruption, burning enemy equipment and reinforcements. The Andreevsky section has turned into one large cemetery, where the command continues to send people to be slaughtered.
🔻 On the Olginsky sector of the front, at night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine used Bayraktar TB2 UAVs at the positions of Russian troops in Olgino and Vysokopole. The front line has stabilized, the Ukrainian formations are trying to take the fortified areas of the Russian troops.
Large resolution map in English:
https://i.ibb.co/h8dF2QD/05-09-EN-1.jpgPosted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 12:56 utc | 17
After Brexit, UK politicians can no longer move on to plush retirement roles in the European government. Some politicians, like the Kinnocks, have enriched immediate and extended members of their families in this way. So what is Boris' angle? Is NATO the new nesting ground for ex-UK politicos? One wonders....
The "offensive" is not the "Ukraine Offensive". It is the "NATO offensive". There may be Ukraine military at the front lines, but you can be sure that NATO is in charge as of this week.
Things are going to get interesting now. NATO couldn't secure the largest nuclear power station in Europe on the eve of the IAEA inspections. They are now trying to everything they can to disrupt the referendums to be held is a week or so. The timing is also to give Ukraine some breathing space to the spring of next year, perhaps.
I believe we will look back on the past week to realize that this is the point where the war seriously expanded in scope.
Posted by: Cricket | Sep 5 2022 12:57 utc | 18
Looking at this more broadly, what's the goal of the Russian forces from here? I mean, unless you're going to take Nikolaev or launch another offensive in this area, what's the point of leaving forces on that side of the Dnieper? Russian forces are spread too thin as it is, there's no capability to do much besides settle for the current stalemate & negotiate. If the Ru MoD were planning something, we would have heard whispers of it by now & satellite imagery etc...
Posted by: Ru | Sep 5 2022 13:00 utc | 19
Just in at the guardian:
Just in: oil cartel Opec and its allies, including Russia, has decided to cut oil output by 100,000 barrels per day in October.
(And i guess zelensky is eagerly awaiting his phone call from the new british p.m.)
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Sep 5 2022 13:04 utc | 20
If the Zerg rush fails it's a straight shot to Mykoliav. The New Atlas showed the salient on a scale map and it's rather small.
Posted by: Bob | Sep 5 2022 13:06 utc | 21
georgeg @ 13
You got me to watch 2 minutes of CNN. It was a 5 minute interview, I just couldn't.
Confirming that Alexander Vindman is a complete idiot. Confirming that the CNN anchors are complete idiots. And their view of the audience begins with utter contempt. Feed them shit.
One thing he did concede, though he waved it off as barely a concern, was Ukraine has lost 30-40% of company level officers. I'd guess twice that. In either case without enough captains and lieutenants remaining to coordinate anything, nothing will get done. Or perhaps the colonels will communicate directly with sergeants. Whatever.
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 5 2022 13:06 utc | 22
The real only hope, a thin one, is that Zalusky and the Ukraine army high command, appalled at the waste of lives, overthrows Zelensky despite his US/Azov protection. As Zelensky doubles and triples down the Kherson offensive, maybe there's a chance.
Posted by: fairleft | Sep 5 2022 12:34 utc | 7
Lackeys never rebel, they crave for the whip. Did the werhmacht rebel?
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 5 2022 13:08 utc | 23
For a few weeks the Donbass liberation has shifted from "capturing small towns" every few days to "capturing fortified positions" every few days. It's all the Russian sources are reporting. This is not "going slow". This is glacial. At this rate, one "fortified position" after another, this will be done in 100 years period. Doesn't look good. Yesterday I read they were on an operational pause and resumed big attacks on many directions, though. I hope something comes out of it.
Meanwhile, in Kherson...honestly, I don't know what to believe anymore. First few days it looked like disaster and I was in high spirits. But now we get all sorts of conflicting reports. Yesterday I did not even watch Military Summary Channel because I had a feeling what he was going to say was going to bother me. Turns out I was right. Glad I didn't watch it.
What about the supposed 3th Army Core? When is it joinning the fight? Is it 60 k strong army, at least, with the most modern weaponry, as it has been said?
I am the first one to admit I have no idea what is going on. What are the plans, etc. But very few people actually do. It is foolish to pretend otherwise. That said, it is equally foolish to believe every western leader and expert is a complete idiot and Russians and Putin always know what they are doing. This is simply not rational.
What the pathetic clown is trying to do is obvious. Ahead of the next summit for weapons delivery of the NATO scum, he is pushing for some success to ask for more. The smart thing from the Russians would be to ensure none success is had. And a big defeat is ensued. It is not the time to play easy.
It seems increasingly clear that the zombified nazi forces won't stop unless they are completely smashed like a bug, and can't fight anymore. At this rate, I don't think this is possible, unless Russia really ups her hand.
Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 13:08 utc | 24
what's the goal of the Russian forces from here?
@Ru | Sep 5 2022 13:00 utc | 20
---
From Vladivostok to Odessa.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 5 2022 13:11 utc | 25
It seems increasingly clear that the zombified nazi forces won't stop unless they are completely smashed like a bug, and can't fight anymore. At this rate, I don't think this is possible, unless Russia really ups her hand.
Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 13:08 utc | 25
You get yo erase them zombies and be mean to them after the war otherwise they pullulate again.
The only soft treatment possible is to send them to cut birch in Siberia for decades - with nail cutter for safety .
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 5 2022 13:15 utc | 26
This seems like a distraction. One has to be on the lookout for the magicians other hand.
With Leopard Tanks seen heading towards the Dneiper, my hunch is that NATO is up to something major.
Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Sep 5 2022 13:16 utc | 27
cut oil output by 100,000 barrels per day in October.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Sep 5 2022 13:04 utc | 20
---
To put that in perspective the US steals 66'000 barrels/day from occupied Syria.
U.S. steals 398 tankers of oil from Syria in 5 days ==> https://english.news.cn/20220817/437cb1bd33ea40999cda96c521f31d21/c.html
Posted by: too scents | Sep 5 2022 13:21 utc | 28
@ThusspakeZarathustra | Sep 5 2022 13:04 utc | 21
Just in: oil cartel Opec and its allies, including Russia, has decided to cut oil output by 100,000 barrels per day in October.
I suspect Russia and Saudi Arabia have a secret profit-sharing agreement in case Russia actually gets cut of from the international market. (Something "Russia gets to borrow Saudi oil for export $$$ and later pay it back in Russian oil.)"
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 13:21 utc | 29
@pobeda
I of course dont have better info on the battlefields of ukraine.
What I can tell you though is that regarding the destruction of europe which is definately the goal of one or more parties to this conflict, the situation is perfect. Imagine the war being over tomorrow. Within 2 or 3 months you would have no justification for the self-destruction of europe any more.
As long as the war is waging the west is bleeding out quickly.
Posted by: Orgel | Sep 5 2022 13:23 utc | 30
Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine - as of September 5, 2022
🔻 The Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to try to gain a foothold in certain sections of the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction.
▪️Russian Aerospace Forces, rocket troops and artillery deliver precision strikes on units and reserves of Ukrainian troops. In total, over the past day, during the hostilities in this operational direction, the enemy lost 11 tanks, 7 infantry fighting vehicles and 8 other armored vehicles, 9 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 220 military personnel.
▪️In addition, high-precision weapons in the areas of the settlements of BEREZNEGOVATOE and MURAKHOVKA of the Nikolaev region hit the points of temporary deployment of the 57th motorized infantry brigade.
▪️In the area of the village of KOCHUBEEVKA, Kherson region, the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force.
▪️In the districts of Voznesensk and OCHAKOVA, Mykolaiv region, two depots of missile and artillery weapons and ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed, where over one and a half thousand rockets for multiple rocket launchers were stored, including more than two hundred missiles for US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.
🔻The strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery on military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue.
▪️The high-precision strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the point of temporary deployment of the unit of the nationalist formation "Kraken" near the city of KHARKOV destroyed more than 30 nationalists and 10 vehicles.
▪️In the area of the settlement KRASNOPOLIE of the Donetsk People's Republic, concentrated fire strikes on the combat positions of the 81st air assault brigade destroyed up to 20 and wounded more than 50 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
▪️During the day, six command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit in the areas of Dachnoye, Velyka Danilovka, Kharkiv region, SLAVIANSK, ARTYOMOVSK, Donetsk People’s Republic, Poltavka, Zaporozhye region, Zelenodolsk, Dnipropetrovsk region, as well as 48 artillery units, manpower and Ukrainian military equipment in 152 areas.
▪️Five depots of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were destroyed in the areas of ANDREEVKA, SADY, Kharkiv region, DOBROVOLIE, ZELENOE POLE of the Donetsk People's Republic and Nikolaevka, Kherson region. A US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket launcher was destroyed in the vicinity of the TYMCHENKI settlement in the Kharkiv region.
▪️Russian air defense systems shot down five unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of settlements BIG PASSES of the Kharkov region, NOVOTROITSKOE, EGOROVKA, NOVY SVET and ZELENOE POLES of the Donetsk People's Republic, including one Bayraktar-TB2.
▪️Four US-made HARM anti-radar missiles were shot down in the areas of CHERNOBAEVKA and NOVAYA KAKHOVKA, Kherson region. In addition, 34 shells of HIMARS, Uragan and Vilkha multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted in the air in the areas of the settlements of KAZATSKOYE and CHERNOBAEVKA of the Kherson region.
▪️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 287 aircraft, 152 helicopters, 1877 unmanned aerial vehicles, 372 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4822 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 825 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3368 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 5304 units of special military vehicles.
🔻Despite the presence of representatives of the IAEA at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the Kyiv regime continues provocations in order to create a threat of a man-made disaster.
On September 4, Ukrainian troops used an attack unmanned aerial vehicle on the territory of the nuclear power plant. As a result of the actions of Russian electronic warfare equipment, the Ukrainian drone lost control and fell a kilometer from the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.
▪️During the night, two artillery shelling of the city of ENERGODAR was recorded. In total, six artillery shells were fired from the areas of the settlements of MARGANETS and NIKOPOL in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were suppressed by the return fire of Russian artillery.
▪️The radiation situation at the Zaporozhye NPP is normal.
Posted by: Summary | Sep 5 2022 13:23 utc | 31
Looks like European corporate bodies are also hitting the floor in solidarity with UKR (Like Rob Zombie would say).
JUST IN - Hakle, the German toilet paper manufacturer and largest importer in Europe, is insolvent.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1566773878055125000
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 5 2022 13:24 utc | 32
Find myself seesawing between:
1) Concern that Russian SMO's limited troop numbers & failure to secure air superiority are a weakness. This allows the Ukrainians (& West) to use Ukraine's superior troop numbers as cannon fodder to frustrate Russia's advances and prevent them securing key objectives necessary for a clear victory.
2) Peer-to-peer wars are seldom simple or straightforward. They take time and Russia's military superiority will eventually prevail over Ukraine's inherent weaknesses.
Only time will tell.
Posted by: Martin | Sep 5 2022 13:26 utc | 33
@Martin | Sep 5 2022 13:26 utc | 33
Will China allow the West to prevail in Ukraine?
Posted by: too scents | Sep 5 2022 13:34 utc | 34
b,
You said you lack access to 'Resident' and 'Legitimny' Telegram accounts. Here are the posts you're looking for:
Resident
Legitimny
Posted by: Ilia | Sep 5 2022 13:36 utc | 35
Restated: too scents | Sep 5 2022 13:34 utc | 34
Will China allow NATO to expand?
Posted by: too scents | Sep 5 2022 13:36 utc | 36
Paco @10, Petri Krohn @17
Thank you very much for the links and update!
Posted by: lulu | Sep 5 2022 13:39 utc | 37
The Russians feel no pressure on their people, and yet they are more invested in the war than people in the West are. They are actually prepared to sacrifice more than the West to win in Ukraine, but Putin has managed the situation in Russia so well that they simply don't have to, barring a massive escalation by the West which could see Russia declare war and position its nukes for use against both Ukraine and NATO.
Posted by: Clubofinfo | Sep 5 2022 13:42 utc | 38
Clueless Joe @ 15
Yes. You are not so clueless.
The other thing Vindman said in the two minutes I could stomach was he had just been in Ukraine. That much was likely truthful. Problem being that you just don't use expats for that sort of work. And the US has no one else better to send. And no one who understands that the expat is always running his own book.
Previous reporting from George Webb (yes, I know) is that the Vindmans have long been coordinating the resale and distribution of weaponry sent to Ukraine. Since there would be no good reason for him to be there I will assume he spent his time in country pursuing the usual weapons trade.
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 5 2022 13:43 utc | 39
Posted by: Clubofinfo | Sep 5 2022 13:42 utc | 38
US is busy trying to push the Baltic clusterf to create another provocation similar on the Donbass level by harassing Russians. But Russia is already giving passports in Baltic states for any Russian willing to leave, so it's harder to create. They will then try to push the Baltic militaries to create any kind of provocation though. They would really have to be innovative to succeed but I guess there are very few limits so we'll see.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 5 2022 13:48 utc | 40
Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 13:08 utc | 25
“I am the first one to admit I have no idea what is going on. What are the plans, etc. But very few people actually do. It is foolish to pretend otherwise. That said, it is equally foolish to believe every western leader and expert is a complete idiot and Russians and Putin always know what they are doing. This is simply not rational.”
You’re being honest and realistic. The regulars here dance to a different best. They are emotionally invested in this war and congregate here for their daily fix of “RF is kicking Ukie a$$”. They come to reinforce their belief through ritual affirmation, truth does not interest them. It’s hilarious how stern and stroppy they can get when someone gently suggests that maybe the Russian military and Putin aren’t invincible geniuses who are predestined to win this conflict. Offering a nuanced take here gets you labeled a troll or intelligence asset.
On the internet everybody gets to choose his own “truth” and follows blogs, Twitter accounts and YouTube channels that caters to it. It has nothing to do with seeking actual truth. If you are hanging out on a forum all day every day and telling yourself the same story over and over again and blocking out any opposing or challenging viewpoints, well, you are basically giving yourself a mental illness (psychosis) and behaving like a cult member.
Not everything the members here believe is factually wrong, but much of it is information that is unverifiable or from sources that bolster one side only. The same is true for the Ukie “fans” of course and their “truth”.
There is no point arguing with cult members and people who are not interested in finding out where the truth actually is. Better to go for a walk, listen to music, have a good conversation, make love or a million more enjoyable and enriching activities before falling down the psychotic rabbit hole where you seriously believe that you know “the truth” of exactly how an active war is playing out.
Posted by: Nostradamus | Sep 5 2022 13:59 utc | 41
b wrote: "The Russian forces on the western side of the Dnieper..."
Do you mean the Ingulets?
Posted by: Susan | Sep 5 2022 14:05 utc | 42
IMO, the goal of the "counteroffensive" is to build a narrative in the mainstream media:
"the Russians are loosing, they are under immense pressure, they are getting destroyed, ...". They will try to "show" that Russia is desperate. Then the Ukraine will blow up the ZNPP and say: "look, they were desperate and now they had to resort to blowing up the NPP!"
Mission accomplished, Russia again the very bad guy... :-/
Posted by: Zet | Sep 5 2022 14:06 utc | 43
Kimmitt“Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass . .
Rather than negotiating, not a US strongpoint, diplomacy is a missing skill at Foggy Bottom, the US is digging deeper into the arms supply.
from The Hill:
Why the US is becoming more brazen with its Ukraine support
. . . the United States for the first time would send Ukraine ScanEagle surveillance drones, heavily armored MaxxPro mine-resistant vehicles and TOW guided anti-tank missile systems as well as various new munitions and ammo. . . AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles . . High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems . . . Excalibur precision-guided artillery munitions — weapons that can travel up to 70 kilometers and would help the Ukrainians target dug-in Russian positions and command posts. . . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 5 2022 14:15 utc | 44
From the Military Chronicle Telegram Channel....
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation use the tactics of saturating the fire bag in the Kherson direction. Details
_ settlement Andreevka and Lozovoye. Units of the Ukrainian army several times (at least three times) over the past days went to the area of the village of Sukhoi Stavok and each time were dispersed by the fire of cannon and rocket artillery. For these purposes, the RF Armed Forces used NONA-S self-propelled howitzers, as well as Tornado and Uragan rocket systems.
From the Sukhoi Headquarters, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to move towards n. n. Bruskinskoye and Bezymennoye with a further goal of throwing to the city of Berislav. They failed each time.
Nevertheless, allied units are not blocking the Ukrainian army's initial foothold near the Ingulets River. According to our data, the tactics of “saturating the fire bag” are being implemented, when the allied forces specially allow the remaining combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the areas of the settlement of the settlement into the potential pocket. Bereznegovatoe, Sokolovka and Krasny Yar.
When the fire bag is full, it will be closed. However, another scenario is also possible, when the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be destroyed in parts - as they enter the bag and even without closing it.
The situation of the fire bag could also be observed in the area of the village of Vysokopole (50 km northeast of Sukhoi Stavka). The units of the RF Armed Forces first left this settlement, then struck with NONA-S self-propelled guns and Kornet complexes, and then again leveled the front line.
As a result, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer huge losses in the Kherson direction. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in the last 24 hours alone, when trying to gain a foothold in certain sections of the direction, Kyiv lost 220 people, 11 tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles and eight other armored vehicles.
According to our estimates, up to 3,000 people were killed and at least 7,000 wounded during the counteroffensive. assault brigade and the 24th separate territorial defense brigade.
As I said earlier....
The Allies are in the process of destroying Ukie strategic reserves....
Helped by....
Ukie/NATO Intransigence...
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 5 2022 14:24 utc | 45
Maybe the Ukr. offensive can be justified similar to what Sadat did to Israel in the Sinai. He kept threatening to the point that nobody believed him. Or you could argue that Western "advisors" see this a last chance to save Ukraine. If Russia takes Odessa, Ukraine almost becomes irrelevant as anything.
If Russia takes out 45K Ukr. soldiers claimed here plus the "hundreds of thousands" quoted from a Ukr. general, that gets pretty serious. So now women aren't allowed to leave? Good Grief. Fanaticism really is redoubling your efforts while forgetting your aims.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 5 2022 14:25 utc | 46
The real only hope, a thin one, is that Zalusky and the Ukraine army high command, appalled at the waste of lives, overthrows Zelensky [...]
Posted by: fairleft | Sep 5 2022 12:34 utc | 6
Unlikely to happen. Ukraine army is since 2014 NATO.
The deal was very straightforward:
* NATO provide the weapons
* Ukraine provide the corpses.
* Military leaders become millionaires
They all know that if they loose, not only Russian will fully proceed with the demilitarisation goal, ie what will remain of Ukraine will not be allowed to have an armed force.
But also NATO will be forced to go back to its 1998 limits, which added with the crisis of confidence will probably terminate it.
Too many people are living and are rich because NATO do exists. Don't expect they will accept its dismantling without doing whatever they can to avoid it.
It'll not go to the last Ukrainian, but to the last European actually.
Posted by: w | Sep 5 2022 14:26 utc | 47
Perhaps they should consider ordering armaments from Russia. Their production seems to be able to supply as much as they need, if not more.
Posted by: Pancho Plail | Sep 5 2022 14:29 utc | 48
A few days ago I read in one of the Russian sources - I think it was Rybar - that they struck a military hospital where the nazis injuried in Kherson were being treated. But I didn't hear much else. Anyone has any information? Does anyone know how usual is purely military hospitals? Because I realize you can't strike hospitals just because some soldiers are there, but if we are talking about militar hospitals, then it is all fair game, and Russia should do it more. There is much I think Russians should be doing more...
Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 14:32 utc | 49
I found the reports that units are being transferred from the Kharkiv region to be potentially of some significance. As I've been following the Military Summary Channel, the prognosis offered there was that the Ukrainians would open another front in the Kharkiv region by launching an attack towards Izyum. This would seem to preclude this.
Posted by: Chip Poirot | Sep 5 2022 14:35 utc | 50
@Pobeda #49, intentionally attacking the enemy's medical services is a major war crime and not "fair game" that Russia should be "doing more"
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v2_rul_rule28
Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 5 2022 14:41 utc | 51
Regarding Hakle, guess they will stop donating toilet paper to Ukraine for a while..
Oh, and Elena Uhlig, PRing the stunt above, has been cancelled on Twitter?
https://twitter.com/ElenaUhlig
I am shocked.
Posted by: C | Sep 5 2022 14:41 utc | 52
There is no point arguing with cult members and people who are not interested in finding out where the truth actually is.
Posted by: Nostradamus | Sep 5 2022 13:59 utc | 41
You are right about that. You are wrong that the regulars at MOA meet any of the criteria for "cult" or group think. From what I see, regulars provide details and a variety of neutral and biased sources (both directions) to arrive at logical inferences. These inevitably arrive almost uniformly at the logical conclusion that the Russians are on their way to some shape of total victory in the end, however the exact time and and shape of this victory is not yet determined and not everyone agrees on the forecasting details. On the other hand, whenever there is a sniff of success by the Ukrainians, this blog is inundated with new or obscure posters who support whatever narrative western sources are building based on a single biased source, or, sometimes, no source at all. In the case of the Kherson counter-offensive, the message being communicated by these "counter-bloggers" (suspiciously in line with the sub-text of Western media) is that the Ukrainians are achieving success, the Russians are not invulnerable, the cause is not lost, and that waverers should not give up. The Ukrainians seem to be gaining some ground here but at what material and moral cost? If it is indeed true that Selensky is "going for broke" then to anyone who has observed the slow trajectory of this conflict and paid attention to what reliable details seep through, this has to smack of desperation and will ultimately fail in some form. Like a Pickett's Charge. Or a Charge of the Light Brigade. The only thing that makes me nervous, as an observer far away who thinks the Russians have just cause in this intervention, is that this offensive is a bloody public promotion to renew western support and keep the war going as along as it takes for the west to get its act together for a larger escalation. After all, Putin cannot be "allowed" to win.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Sep 5 2022 14:48 utc | 53
@b:”……
Yep. Here’s a pastiche from telegram + twitter
> Lithuanian fertilizer plant to close. Achema, Lithuania's largest fertilizer plant is unable to operate with rising gas costs. Natural gas is the main raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilizers, accounting for around 70% of the cost of production.
> Sweden's largest tomato grower is being forced to shut down because they cannot afford the electricity prices. 500 tons of tomatoes, gone.
> CERN is drafting plans to idle its particle accelerators, including the Large Hadron Collider, if France runs short of electricity.
> Fertilizer prices rally as an energy crunch in Europe forces factory closures.
Common nitrogen fertilizer ammonia in the US rose nearly 24% last week.
Over two-thirds (!!) of European ammonia production is offline due to high natural gas costs.
> ArcelorMittal is idling parts of three steel plants due to high energy costs and weaker demand.
> The world’s second-largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, is the latest industrial company to announce a plant closure in Europe due to soaring gas and energy prices
> BREAKING: The Euro has fallen below 99 US cents, the lowest in two decades
> EXCLUSIVE: UK gas producers and electricity generators may make excess profits totalling as much as £170 billion over the next two years, according to Treasury estimates.
> Liz Truss has ruled out a new windfall tax on energy companies. “I don’t think profit is a dirty word, and the fact it has become a dirty word in our society is a massive problem,” she added.
> Price cap day and it’s grim reading: UK households will pay almost triple the price to heat their homes this winter compared with a year ago.
> It isn't just German industrial companies -- here a story in Spanish media offering concrete examples of local companies shutting down this week because high energy prices: a ferroalloys smelter, a ceramic tile producer, and a steel furnace.
> amazing data point that shows what's coming in the inflation pipeline: the cost of turning clay into a ceramic tile has surged 1,047% over the last year. Think about it if you are planning to update your bathroom and/or kitchen (Spain is the 5th world's largest tile producer)
> Sweden and Finland provide a combined €33 billion in loans and credit guarantees to bail-out local utilities facing margins calls in power and gas markets.
> Germany levies windfall tax on energy groups to fund €65bn aid package.
> Moscow has stated that gas supplies to Europe will not resume in full until the west lifts sanctions on Russia.
> EUROPEAN GAS JUMPS 31%
> Dutch TTF Gas Futures currently up 31%.
> MEDVEDEV: Germany is acting as an enemy of Russia. And this guy (Scholz) is surprised that the Germans have some minor problems with gas.
Germany: a) is an unfriendly country; b) has imposed sanctions against the entire economy of Russia and its citizens; c) supplies Ukraine with lethal weapons directed against our Armed Forces.
> Egypt is planning to issue international bonds denominated in the Chinese yuan worth more than USD 500 million, instead of issuance in the USD.
> 28 Estonian companies are seeking exemption from sanctions against Russia so that they can continue to import Russian oil products.
> Berlin and Leipzig Germany will see the first of a series of planned “Monday protests” against soaring energy bills. Protesters in Berlin will rally from 7pm outside the offices of the Greens under the slogan “Enough is enough — protest, don’t freeze.”
> Germany will provide Ukraine with new financial assistance in the amount of 200 million euros. The Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany reported that a significant part of our new assistance should go to the Ukrainian government's program to support internally displaced persons
> Annual inflation in Turkey reached 80.21% in August - Turkish Statistical Institute
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 5 2022 14:54 utc | 54
It looks like the alt media meme of "shape-shifting chameleons" is right after all with Lizard Truss being the new Crime Minister of Perfidious Albion.
Posted by: William Haught | Sep 5 2022 14:56 utc | 55
From what I've read, the NPP Commando Ops were made by GBRitish Trained UKRoNazi.
Presuming that's the case - GBR+Commonwealth SpecOps "Volunteers" are On-Site/On-Comms directing the Maneuvering.
Fresh Conscripts with few weeks' Training - ⅛ to ⅒ the Training & Time needed for SpecOps and "Counter Offensive" Roles.
Figure the Conscripts and a few AFU Vets were "Walked Through" possible Operational Scenarios - the best they can do with limited periods of Day+Night Training.
BoJo's last stunt.
RUS won't be troubled or distracted.
Posted by: IronForge | Sep 5 2022 14:57 utc | 56
Posted by: Sam Smith | Sep 5 2022 12:36 utc | 8
Negotiated settlement??
Those days have passed.
Whether Nato likes it or not Ukraine will be reunited with Russia
aanndd
"Demilitization and Denazification" of Ukraine is the main ingredient in that cake that is currently cooking in "Babushka Z's" oven
Posted by: Kim | Sep 5 2022 15:03 utc | 57
I could imagine that Ukraine's current military efforts in Kherson Oblast could be aimed at preventing Russian forces from successfully settling the Donbass issue this year. Finally, the Serbian President announced a (diplomatic) proposal that will come from the Kremlin as soon as the Russian side should achieve certain goals in the Donbas.
This announcement of a "new phase", especially since it is based on a Russian initiative, is not allowed to take place so that the states on the mainland of Europe do not refrain from their path of self-mutilation during the winter period. In addition, one could hope in the West to slow down a mobilization of possible preconditions for this "hell". Well, it's speculation from my side.
London, Washington and NATO-Brussels should all be interested in the fact that the populations and governments in mainland Europe (let's just take Italy, Germany, France) do not have to deal with these questions of possible peace or solution offers from the Russian side over Christmas. Who wants more breeding ground for protests and unrest? The illusion of a truce (Burgfriede) in the West based on bubbles of media nurturing their narratives is probably more tempting.
Finally, Stoltenberg expects an expensive "hard winter that is ahead of us in Europe". He also wanted to encourage the states of Europe to war production in the same interview.
Posted by: Konrad | Sep 5 2022 15:03 utc | 58
Ukrainians won't stop, they are full of hate and motivated, they do not care if they all die to defeat Russia.
EU population won't stop, the ruling class is full of hate and motivated, the masses are zombified, they do not care if they all die to defeat Russia.
USA won't stop, the ruling class is full of hate and motivated, the masses are zombified, they do not care if they all die to defeat Russia.
I think it is clear what shall happen.
Posted by: mario2 | Sep 5 2022 15:07 utc | 59
Susan | Sep 5 2022 14:05 utc | 42
“……>Do you mean Ingulets?
No. Dneiper.
Watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWa-9kLD3Hk
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 5 2022 15:08 utc | 60
Too scents no. 28
That puts it into perspective. Seems a paltry figure now.
Petri no. 29
I suppose anything is possible these days. (Even nuclear annihilation.)
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Sep 5 2022 15:08 utc | 61
Those sneaky Russians.
Cross the river then withdraw. A massive baiting program to pull all the foolish "Z' reserves, into the open. Add all self-propelled/fixed Artillery/Rocket artillery/sunburn barrage weapons. Not even a mouse could have survived that killing field. Ouch!
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Sep 5 2022 15:09 utc | 62
DID FINLAND GIVE UKRAINE LEOPARD 2A4 TANKS?
On Saturday @Rybar reported that the third wave of Ukrainian forces to enter the Andreevka salient was armed with German Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks. The report may be false, so far there is no visual confirmation of this. The report caused speculation as to where the Leopards might have come from. Spain was suggested as the source, but according to public information, Spain decided to not send its tanks to Ukraine after all.
If the report on the Leopard 2s is true, then I suspect the tanks came from Finland.
Here is the original @Rybar report:
The battle for Kherson: the situation in the Andreevsky sector as of 20.00 on September 3 of the yearDuring the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to completely occupy the village of Blagodatovka , using the crossing set up by the Russian Armed Forces the day before, and unblock the troops surrounded on the southern bank of the Ingulets.
▪️ The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has concentrated all available reserves and forces to expand the bridgehead on the Andreevsky sector of the front: near Posad-Pokrovsky, near Vysokopolie, and near Snigirevka, enemy activity is limited to rare shelling and the activity of small groups.
▪️ Along the route Bereznegovatoe village - Bereznegovatoe station - Ternovka - Blagodatovka - Andreevka the transfer of equipment and personnel to the southern coast continues. German "Leopards" were seen, as well as something similar to the Finnish ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman).
▪️ Most likely, at least one pontoon crossing was partially restored in the Andreevka area: until the middle of the day, trucks with crushed stone and soil ran there, which poured an earthen embankment.
▪️ The amount of equipment transferred to the south coast has decreased: eyewitnesses report that the flow is starting to dry up. People are brought in civilian trucks and regular buses, after crossing the Ingulets they are dispersed in groups along the forest plantations along the coast.
...
@Rybar later continued:
Apparently, the entire company set of Italian Leopard 2A4s has now been transferred to the Andreevsky sector of the front.Now they are in the bare steppe without the support of air defense systems in Sukhoi Headquarters in the zone of destruction of Russian artillery and aviation.
UPD: The source corrects that we can talk about 2A6.
UPD 2: Understood. Most likely, we are talking about the Spanish 2A4. A month and a half ago, they just lit up while loading in one of the ports of Europe.
@tacticalnecktie responds by speculating about the Spanish origin of the Leopard 2A4s, but rejects it.
Finland has 200 Leopard 2A4s and 2A6s, bought from Germany in the early 2000s and from the Netherlands in 2014. Finland also has some two dozen auxiliary tanks based on the Leopard 2, including the Leopard 2 Marksman anti-aircraft tank.
The Finnish "ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman)" no longer exist. Only seven were ever made in Finland, using a British turret and a Swiss 35 mm gun (the same as in the German Flakpanzer Gepard), all this placed on a T-55 tank platform of Polish origin. The tanks were retired in 2010, but in 2015 the turrets were transferred to Leopard 2 platforms. The combination is now called the "Leopard 2 Marksman".
The Russian identification of the tanks as "something similar to the Finnish ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman)" is weird. It can be based partly on the signature of the British Marconi radars. Russian naming for odd Western weapons is not always up to NATO standards. Yesterday the Russian MoD called the Dutch YPR-765 a "Bradley".
If the identification of the Leopard 2 Marksman is correct, and if the Leopard 2 Marksman was fighting in the same unit as other Leopard 2s, then one can assume all came from the same country, namely Finland.
Finland has sent seven batches of weapons to Ukraine. The first batch may have contained 100,000 Chinese Kalashnikov derivatives. No information on the contents of the other batches has been published. Photos published yesterday from the Kherson front show a Soviet-made ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft autocannon with Finnish language markings and boilerplates all over it.
Transporting dozens of Leopard 2s to Ukraine could only happen by railways. If this happened somewhere in Western Europe, it would have been noticed and reported on social media.
A Wasp-class amphibious assault ship of the United States Navy, the USS Kearsarge visited Finland in early August, and after stoping in Helsinki for a few days, held secret "exercises" with Finnish forces in the "Hanko area". Hanko is a port city with good railway connections. After leaving Finland, the USS Kearsarge docked in Klaipėda, Lithuania on 20 August. The Wasp-class amphibious assault ship have a well-deck sized 81 by 15.2 meters. It can fit 40 Leopard 2s. If the Ukrainian Leopard 2A4s exist, and if they are of Finnish origin, then I believe they were transported aboard the USS Kearsarge to Lithuania, and from there by rail through Poland to the Ukraine.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 15:17 utc | 63
Just watched Alex do his daily walkabout. The Sun(UK) ran an interesting comparison between Russian and UK prices. Of most significance was that Ukraine plan to conscript women from Oct.1. If anything will put an end to Ukraine it will be that,short and longterm. I would presume they will replace garrison troops,but you never know.
Posted by: Bob | Sep 5 2022 15:17 utc | 64
Another frightening scenario that no one talks about is this:
https://rumble.com/v1hq9sj-will-the-usuk-explode-a-nuclear-bomb-in-ukraine-and-blame-russian.html
Sounds crazy. But we do, obviously, live in an upside-down world.
Posted by: Moti Nissani | Sep 5 2022 15:21 utc | 65
Paul Greenwood | Sep 5 2022 12:36 utc | 9
>Krivoy Rog ?
Is Zelensky’s birthplace.
Dunno about his wife. I thought she was western Ukrainian.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 5 2022 15:26 utc | 66
Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 15:17 utc | 63
“……… If the Ukrainian Leopard 2A4s exist, and if they are of Finnish origin, then I believe they were transported aboard the USS Kearsarge to Lithuania, and from there by rail through Poland to the Ukraine.
Thanks for that post. Spidery senses say you are probably correct….
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 5 2022 15:40 utc | 67
Well. They went in a “wave” to zap the ZapNPP. Now they are zapped and ride an eternal wave.
https://t.me/rybar/38216
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 5 2022 15:49 utc | 68
thanks b... thanks paco.... lots of good posts...
@ Activist Potato | Sep 5 2022 14:48 utc | 53
thanks for articulating that... some of these user names have a track record, and others not so much...
---------------------
regarding the fairleft question -chance of Zalusky overthrowing zelensky - not a chance as i see it..
----------------------
bigger question is how to keep it all up financially for ukraine... this is off telegram -
Although the agreed deferral of interest payments on debts somewhat eased the financial situation of Ukraine, they are in no hurry to issue loans to it, they understand that the country is in danger of default and will have nothing to give back.
Even the notorious €9 billion from the European Commission (of which Ukraine received only €1 billion) is split up and is not eager to transfer it to the "square" in full. Thus, the EU only plans to issue another aid package of €5 billion to Ukraine so that the country can cover urgent expenses - and then the money will come in the form of long-term loans, and not a non-repayable grant, which is fraught with even greater harm to the economy of our state (debt is growing ).
In the end, nothing good: since the beginning of the war, the budget deficit of Ukraine has been about $4-5 billion a month, and according to the Ministry of Finance, since the beginning of the war, the deficit has amounted to about $27 billion, but of this amount, only about half comes from Western funding, the second half is divided 40:60 between grants and loans. The high proportion of loans indicates that Ukraine is actually being charged for waging war. And as a result, when the war is over, the country will be saddled with a huge burden of debt, and then there will be a need for restructuring, which will delay and complicate access to capital markets when the needs are enormous.
Posted by: james | Sep 5 2022 15:51 utc | 69
Started listening to one of the Alexes of The Duran through Telegram, the one walking around and talking in Southern Europe / Mediterranean. The collective Waste will probably score the first and last quarters of their W.
Posted by: William Haught | Sep 5 2022 16:02 utc | 70
This may be of interest.
The M113… the US gave 200 to Ukraine and it’s being used in Kherson now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBufXgTnou0
At 1:16 details of who sent how many to Ukraine.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 5 2022 16:03 utc | 71
Should have kept listening before posting my last comment. Hope Alex is wrong, I would not want to be in a village retaken by crazies and held even for 5 nanoseconds.
Posted by: William Haught | Sep 5 2022 16:06 utc | 72
C | Sep 5 2022 14:41 utc | 52
"Regarding Hakle, guess they will stop donating toilet paper to Ukraine for a while.."
Hm, used toilet paper is still an option. I would donate some of that, I guess.
---
fairleft | Sep 5 2022 12:34 utc | 6
"The real only hope, a thin one, is that Zalusky and the Ukraine army high command, appalled at the waste of lives, overthrows Zelensky..."
I agree, it would be best for Ukraine (and Russia, too), but chances for this to happen are like a popsicle's chance in hell.
There was a very thorough shake-up in the Ukr military back in 2021. With hindsight, the re-shuffling that took place back then may very well have been carried out precisely to prevent any military coup today. Sergiy Korniychuk was dismissed from the post of Chief of the General Staff after just one year in 2021, though he's only 56 years old. Likewise, Ruslan Khomchak was dismissed as Commander-in-Chief. What both have in common: they still served in the USSR's Red Army, though only for a few years. The two guys who followed them had their entire career in independent ("independent") Ukraine. Sergei Shaptala (current Chief of the General Staff) fought in the Battle of Debaltseve. Valery Zaluzhny (current Commander-in-Chief) absolutely adores NATO. It's similar with the heads of the four Operational Commands. These people are part and parcel of why Ukraine sucks for Ukrainians today, so don't expect anything from them. Besides, if Drama-Queen-in-Chief Zelensky were somehow incapacitated, according to the constitution the head of parliament would automatically take over. That's Ruslan Stefanchuk. He won't support any change of direction either.
Bleak is all it is.
I believe Russia should really step up to the plate and disconnect the whole of Ukraine from the West, by unsurmountable force. Sever all road and train connections to Poland, Hungary and Romania. Preferably when Zelensky is abroad, so he can't re-enter. Take it from there.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Sep 5 2022 16:08 utc | 73
Posted by: Activist Potato | Sep 5 2022 14:48 utc | 53
A thoughtful and considered response.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 15:17 utc | 63
Great detective work.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 5 2022 16:13 utc | 74
Ukrainian channel Legitimny reports Helensky is prepared to sacrifice up to 20K dead and 40k wounded
-After the first two days and 2,000 dead, maybe three times more wounded, the Ukrainian military hospitals were full and the wounded were driven in civilian cars to Niko and Odessa. They didn't have enough ambulances either.
-If they get up to 10,000 dead, without coming near Kherson, will the military command still agree to this massacre?
-The bridges east of Kherson bombed is disconcerting. Most of the river is half a kilometer wide. Supplies by rafts will be just a trickle of supplies by bridge.
-But the Russians must have known this would happen, and they had three months to prepare. They should have plenty of military supplies in Kherson.
-The Ukrainians sent in conscripts first, to make the Russians run out of artillery and get tired. Then after the cannon fodder they send in the professional soldiers. This is their pattern. The push now will be much harder than in the first days.
-But the Russians still have the advantage of being the defenders and having more artillery.
Posted by: Tenet | Sep 5 2022 16:15 utc | 75
Re: james | Sep 5 2022 15:51 utc | 69
you wrote: ". . . when the war is over, the country will be saddled with a huge burden of debt, and then there will be a need for restructuring, which will delay and complicate access to capital markets when the needs are enormous".
That assumes that those who made these financial agreements with the West will still be in control of Ukraine, and also that some part of Ukraine will still exist as a state independent of Russian control.
I doubt that either condition will be met, and Russia surely will not honor such agreements.
Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 5 2022 16:18 utc | 76
@William Haught
Who did you listen to, Alexander Mercouris? I follow him, TheNewAtlas and Military Summary for war news on YouTube.
Posted by: Tenet | Sep 5 2022 16:22 utc | 77
Finally, Stoltenberg expects an expensive "hard winter that is ahead of us in Europe". He also wanted to encourage the states of Europe to war production in the same interview.
Posted by: Konrad | Sep 5 2022 15:03 utc | 58
Stoltenberg is probably high on the same dope as Zelensky. No wonder he didn't notice aluminum, steel, nickel and zinc smelters shutting off all across EU-Europe and copper also. And they'll make him a central banker, good riddance. Only USA has the potential to produce something.
I have high doubts euro zone will exist per se once (if ever) this is all said and done.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 5 2022 16:27 utc | 78
When reality can only be processed as farce: Stereo Vindman's briefing from a 1945 Berlin Bunker, Field Marshal Montgomery striking at a Bridge too Far, and a Manhattan Project to save the face of a crumbling, demented US Empire.
Sad vision for my uneducated self, tragic end for a Greater Europe exhausted by 500 years of playing the global colonizer?
Posted by: Eric Blair | Sep 5 2022 16:34 utc | 79
@ Perimetr | Sep 5 2022 16:18 utc | 76
thanks.. that was a quote i was sharing from telegram, but regardless, i agree with you... cheers..
Posted by: james | Sep 5 2022 16:37 utc | 80
@Sam Smith
> Russia will get more than the $300 billion
> stolen by the US/EU in terms of Ukrainian
> territories...
Whatever. Much of those $300 billion would have been stolen or/and misappropriated anyway -- by the Russian oligarchs and their cohorts. And the rest would have been wasted by the population on imported goods and services (most of which, in the absence of other choice and given the resolve would eventually be replaced by domestic ones (electric blankets and such), to the benefit of the domestic economy).
"The aggregate spending of Russians on foreign trips in summer 2019 amounted to 128.7 billion rubles, and during the New Year period (from December 15, 2019 to January 15 this year) - 30.4 billion rubles..." We are talking about roughly $2 billion each summer just on travel (hotels, restos, entertainment, petty shopping)...
Posted by: Nomad | Sep 5 2022 17:10 utc | 81
Now to possible unrest in Germany or the EU!
In the digital age of mobile phones, PCs, etc., it is easy for those in power to prevent emerging unrest.
Without a mobile phone or an e-mail without a Wathsapp / Telegram, there is hardly any possibility of contact between the different regions under family under yes even in cities!
Thus a possibility with the help of the Internet operator mobile phone provider to prevent these contacts!
Example: Leipzig, today thousands only in the center now in districts on the move and the mobile network is gone, allegedly overloaded?
That can be , but it shows that without the Internet and without mobile communications , the flow of information quickly comes to an end and thus to a ,
the knowledge of what is happening where and the opportunity to organize!
In Germany, from October, the Bundeswehr may take action against protests or support the police in the interior!
For this purpose, laws were quietly and secretly changed !!
Means YOU know what's coming!
Posted by: mo3 | Sep 5 2022 17:23 utc | 82
"The militarists, who have created a state within a state and who plunge us into one military debacle after another, consuming half of all discretionary spending, are omnipotent. The corporations and billionaires, which orchestrated a virtual tax boycott and gutted regulation and oversight, are omnipotent. The industrialists who wrote trade deals to profit from unemployment and underemployment of U.S. workers and sweatshop labor overseas are omnipotent. The insurance and pharmaceutical industries that run the healthcare system, whose primary concern is profit not health and who are responsible for 16 percent of the worldwide reported deaths from COVID-19 although we are less than 5 percent of the global population, are omnipotent. The intelligence agencies that carry out wholesale surveillance of the public are omnipotent. The courts that reinterpret laws to strip them of their original meaning to ensure corporate control and excuse corporate crimes, are omnipotent. The courts gave us Citizens United, for example, which permits unlimited corporate financing of elections by claiming it upholds the right to petition the government and is a form of free speech.
Politics is spectacle, a tawdry carnival act where the constant jockeying for power by the ruling class dominates the news cycles, as if politics were a race to the Superbowl. The real business of ruling is hidden, carried out by corporate lobbyists who write the legislation, banks that loot the Treasury, the war industry and an oligarchy that determines who gets elected and who does not. It is impossible to vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs, the fossil fuel industry or Raytheon, no matter which party is in office.
The moment any segment of the population, left or right, refuses to participate in this illusion, the face of inverted totalitarianism resembles the face of classical totalitarianism, as Julian Assange is experiencing.
Our corporate overlords and militarists prefer the decorum of George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden. But they worked closely with Donald Trump and are willing to do so again. What they will not allow are reformers such as Bernie Sanders, who might challenge, however tepidly, their obscene accumulation of wealth and power. This inability to reform, to restore democratic participation and address social inequality, means the inevitable death of the republic. Biden and the Democrats rail against the cultish Republican Party and their threat to democracy, but they too are the problem."
Part of a piece by Chris Hedges, on SCHEERPOST
Posted by: polarbear4 | Sep 5 2022 17:36 utc | 83
Yes, the US "leadership" has truly decided to "carry the fight to the Russians down to the last Ukrainian."
The slaughter will continue, regardless of the inevitable destruction of the Ukrainian state--and that is not only regrettable; it is lamentable, and something the USA shall carry as a historical burden for the rest of its likely short historical existence.
Russia has determined that the eradication of the US's CIA-backed (over 70 years!) Galician Nazis is an existential threat and now Russia is determined to extinguish them. It is clear that the US does not have the resources nor the intellectual cleverness to neither block nor obviate Russia's onslaught.
I am all on-board with the Russians: the only good Nazi is a dead Nazi. And it is clear: the US has decided to endorse, supply, and train Nazis in its doomed campaign against a Socialist future, where monopolies and 1% elite Oligarchs are eradicated like bacterial slime.
The fact that this will result in a steep decline of quality-of-life for the collective West is, also, something I welcome. The "Collective West" is an entity that has, for too long, been leeching the lifeblood of other civilizations. It is a good thing that the "Collective West" is now faced with the same sort of cold, life-altering calculations that the so-called "3rd world" has been faced with for so long.
For this one thing I am grateful for "Neo-Liberal" policy. For everything else, I despise it.
Unfortunately, what many of us USA- and Canadian-Americans don't realize is how deeply the Nazi mentality is rooted in our own local cultures.
"Independent" and #Zero-Hedge-Financial voters like to write this off as "#Woke" culture scare-mongering, but it is true: there are concentrated Nazi forces in the US who have been planning a "revolution" against the US government for nearly 100 years, now. They started back when the Nazis were ascendant in Germany, and they have been infiltrating our military for decades.
The "Christian Dominionist" faction are explicitly (and stupidly) racist in their rhetoric, yet they have clearly been infiltrating our police and military forces for two (!) generations, now.
Sadly, the Intertubes do not distinguish among nor edit the historically-addled and scientifically-gulled "Social Media" posts that are now, as we speak, currently recruiting untold thousands of followers to their shared cause as-we-type. The problem is not "Social Media"; the problem is the core of the United States, which is built around a mentality of "Kill the local people who lived here before because that will increase my profit."
In the US, "local" used to mean "indigenous." Now, it means "the poor".
"Race" used to mean "Italian, French, German, English, Scottish, Welsh, Occitan, Saxon, Napolitan, Russian, Slav, etc".
Now, "Race" means "White"--unless you're Russian, or Black, or "Red"--which means the indigenous peoples of Latin America, which the Western-backed Oligarchs of Latin America routinely slaughter.
The slaughter will continue, just as it always has, right up until the rest of us--by which i mean, the part of apolitical humanity that decides to declare an end to all this nonsense--rises up to end the lives of these self-serving, greedy Oligarchs.
The Oligarchs are the problem. Eliminating them is the solution.
Posted by: Pacifica_Advocate | Sep 5 2022 17:37 utc | 84
Oops.
>>(correction)
Yes, the US "leadership" has truly decided to "carry the fight to the Russians down to the last Ukrainian."
The slaughter will continue, regardless of the inevitable destruction of the Ukrainian state--and that is not only regrettable; it is lamentable, and something the USA shall carry as a historical burden for the rest of its likely short historical existence.
Russia has determined that the eradication of the US's CIA-backed (over 70 years!) Galician Nazis is an existential threat and now Russia is determined to extinguish them. It is clear that the US does not have the resources nor the intellectual cleverness to neither block nor obviate Russia's onslaught.
I am all on-board with the Russians: the only good Nazi is a dead Nazi. And it is clear: the US has decided to endorse, supply, and train Nazis in its doomed campaign against a Socialist future, where monopolies and 1% elite Oligarchs are
***elevated, and all else eradicated like bacterial slime.
The fact that this will result in a steep decline of quality-of-life for the collective West is, also, something I welcome. The "Collective West" is an entity that has, for too long, been leeching the lifeblood of other civilizations. It is a good thing that the "Collective West" is now faced with the same sort of cold, life-altering calculations that the so-called "3rd world" has been faced with for so long.
For this one thing I am grateful for "Neo-Liberal" policy. For everything else, I despise it.
Unfortunately, what many of us USA- and Canadian-Americans don't realize is how deeply the Nazi mentality is rooted in our own local cultures.
"Independent" and #Zero-Hedge-Financial voters like to write this off as "#Woke" culture scare-mongering, but it is true: there are concentrated Nazi forces in the US who have been planning a "revolution" against the US government for nearly 100 years, now. They started back when the Nazis were ascendant in Germany, and they have been infiltrating our military for decades.
The "Christian Dominionist" faction are explicitly (and stupidly) racist in their rhetoric, yet they have clearly been infiltrating our police and military forces for two (!) generations, now.
Sadly, the Intertubes do not distinguish among nor edit the historically-addled and scientifically-gulled "Social Media" posts that are now, as we speak, currently recruiting untold thousands of followers to their shared cause as-we-type. The problem is not "Social Media"; the problem is the core of the United States, which is built around a mentality of "Kill the local people who lived here before because that will increase my profit."
In the US, "local" used to mean "indigenous." Now, it means "the poor".
"Race" used to mean "Italian, French, German, English, Scottish, Welsh, Occitan, Saxon, Napolitan, Russian, Slav, etc".
Now, "Race" means "White"--unless you're Russian, or Black, or "Red"--which means the indigenous peoples of Latin America, which the Western-backed Oligarchs of Latin America routinely slaughter.
The slaughter will continue, just as it always has, right up until the rest of us--by which i mean, the part of apolitical humanity that decides to declare an end to all this nonsense--rises up to end the lives of these self-serving, greedy Oligarchs.
The Oligarchs are the problem. Eliminating them is the solution.
Posted by: Pacifica_Advocate | Sep 5 2022 17:41 utc | 86
Oof.
I'm too drunk.
The "Oops" may have been a move too far, but the point is:
The Oligarchs need to be eliminated. Period. Full stop.
I failed to recognize how my verbiage played into a dual meaning.
Sorry about all that.
The meaning was:
Killing the fucking Oligarchs is the right policy.
Posted by: Pacifica_Advocate | Sep 5 2022 17:49 utc | 87
Latest update from @Rybar with new map.
The battle for Kherson: the situation in the Andreevsky sector as of 20.00 on September 5Tomorrow night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to once again expand the bridgehead on the Andrievsky sector of the front and with infantry forces to drive the RF Armed Forces out of Belogorka, Kostromka, Bruskinsky and Karlo-Marksovsky ("Shchaslyve" on English map).
A pontoon-bridge park on KrAZ-255 with river links was transferred through Bereznegovatoe to repair and build new crossings across the Ingulets River. In total, at least 30 units of engineering equipment passed to the northern shore.
To the station Bereznegovatoe continue to move infantry in civilian trucks and buses. There is little military equipment: in forest plantations along the banks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 3-5 units are concentrated per 1 km of the front.
Despite the active fire destruction of the entire triangle of Blagodatovka - Andreevka - Lozovoe - Sukhoi Stavok, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not deviate from the plan for a suicidal rush to Novaya Kakhovka.
Map in English: https://i.ibb.co/tckYQRD/05-09-en-1.jpg
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 5 2022 17:49 utc | 88
It is clear that Stavka underestimated Ukrainians.
Ukrainians are ready to die, they are not afraid and that is their strength.
The Russian Army is better but not so motivated.
Posted by: mario2 | Sep 5 2022 17:58 utc | 89
Yes - as the much maligned strelkov was saying months ago.
Wishful thinking on the part of Putin.
Western sharks scent blood in the water. God help us.
But sure, Odessa in a month!
Posted by: Moaobserver | Sep 5 2022 18:08 utc | 90
reply to 89
It makes the situation sound like a coming bloodbath if they are busing infantry in but not meaningful equipment or armor - depending on how much ammo Russians have there.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 5 2022 18:17 utc | 91
What is a root of this death cult in Ukraine, EU and USA?
How comes that they are not afraid of nuclear war?
Posted by: mario2 | Sep 5 2022 18:20 utc | 92
Putin did not say "Odessa in a month". The large Ukrainian cities will be left alone until they surrender, that is the plan, and I think military spokesmen have been quite open about it.
The Ukrainian soldiers are ready to die, and sent to die, and their motivation is called captagon. What the NATO command does to them is truly horrible, a crime against humanity.
Posted by: veto | Sep 5 2022 18:27 utc | 93
The Economist throws cold water on the "many thousands of casualties, hospitals overflowing" rumors with reporting from Mikholaiv:
Can't say for sure that this is from Vysokopillya but a touching video - with the bicycles it could almost be from the liberation of France in WW2:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1566801922232827906
Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 5 2022 18:27 utc | 94
The Economist throws cold water on the...Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 5 2022 18:27 utc | 95
Because cold water is all they have now? So The Economist chose to ignore the convoys of ambulances heading to Odessa and other urban centers?
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 5 2022 18:37 utc | 95
As far as I known, any "side" is allowed to post here. So it is funny people like Yenwoda pretend they are not effusively cheering for Ukraine, pretending to be neutral.
Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 18:40 utc | 96
There seems to be a consensus in the bar that Z is a coke-head comedian impersonating a politician he once depicted while acting in a popular television series. He demonstrates little military skill or knowledge other than a willingness to sacrifice the lives of his fellow citizens and a capacity to beg for assistance and make total reliance on the kindness of others.
While Z is understood to be little more than a sock-puppet for his masters in Washington, a key concern must be the fact Joe Tzu, the head puppeteer, is not a coke-head but, judged by his recent proclamations, does appear intent on precipitating a civil war in the US. He is certainly delivering a fantastic performance as Der Führer, the only Übermensch capable of saving the United States from overthrow by the MAGA underground. January 6th, 2021 was the equivalent of the Reichstag fire, the Ukraine conflict is a battle for the purity of Europe, the arming of the IRS adds to the internal brown shirt army, and all opposition to Uncle Joe and his corrupt minions will result in prosecution and armed raids by the state on Trumped up charges. And if Putin fails to submit to the will of the Kapitalist Demokratic Ideologen then the only response will be to initiate war with Xi Jinping for failing to permit the US to deliver advanced armaments to a province of China.
One need not be either an astrophysicist, or an astrologer, to calculate the coming orientation of the celestial bodies: Truss in UK, BoJo as likely future NATO Secretary General, Schultz and Macron as two more 404 incompetents, and the American Übermensch Der Führer as the leader of the cabal.
This post began as an attempt to create a prognostic thesis based on the above circumstance but it is impossible to undertake any reasonable conjecture as to how the above plays out. Before I inventory my supply of canned food and bottled water the best I can do is remember apocalyptic lyrics which seem apropos:
This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end
I'll never look into your eyes again
Posted by: Sushi | Sep 5 2022 18:51 utc | 97
I remember from history and what dad told me. During WWII. Hitler started to micromanage the war. Caused a lot of problems among the general staff and they tried to kill the fella. Lot of things to be said about that but this is a different war (SMO).
When you get a fella that isn't trained in the art/mathematics of war trying to micro manage the war things tend to get a bit fuzzy and disastrous for that fellas side.
Now the USA (equally as disastrous as the clown micro manager.) is trying to use a doctrine from 2014 to push the Russians back. It is an insane doctrine too. Send a bunch of conscripts to attack and when the enemy runs out of resources then send the the specialists to finish the job. It's a bad doctrine to follow in a peer to peer military operation.
The west has this ideology that they are superior to every other military on the planet. I believe they came to this conclusion after fighting non peer forces. The problem is even when the US and the west fought non peer forces they have consistently lost. As far as see this is that the west has not learned from their previous mistakes. Throwing more money at a problem does not make that problem go away. In fact it escalates the problem to to a monster that cannot be dealt with.
At this point in the west it is just ego's that believe in their own propaganda. This is a very dangerous and a deadly way to move forward for any civilization.
Many civilizations that have come before have made the same mistake. I don't believe that in future things will change.
Anyway enjoy your life today and raise a family that understands the truths of history as best they can.
Cheers everyone and stay safe out there.
Posted by: Craig | Sep 5 2022 19:00 utc | 98
Correction: In the paragraph before the cartoon, "Ken" should be "Keir".
Posted by: poli sci | Sep 5 2022 19:11 utc | 99
Posted by: Pobeda | Sep 5 2022 14:32 utc | 49
RE: Hospital Strike
The alleged attack is reported to have occurred in Nikolyev. All Ukrainian supplies are dependent on a single bridge which connects Nikolyev with Odessa. The bridge is a valid military target and likely to be attacked by RF in the attempt to interdict military re-supply to the front.
Given past Ukrainian efforts in the propaganda war, it is likely the UAF seeks to dissuade such attacks, or cast them in a negative light as war crime. So far I have not seen any imagery to support the Ukrainian claims.
Posted by: Sushi | Sep 5 2022 19:12 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
I would say crossing by the Russians was a mistake. Although it would ultimately depend on how much damage they managed to inflict on support units. Lets go with unnecessary. The front is still far too narrow to overcome the BTG's
Posted by: Bob | Sep 5 2022 12:19 utc | 1