Historic Context Of The Referenda In Ukraine
Voting for membership in the Russian Federation has started in four oblast of Ukraine:
Russian proxy officials in four regions — Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, and Kherson and Zaporizka in the south — earlier this week announced plans to hold referendums over four days beginning on Friday. Russia controls nearly all of two of the four regions, Luhansk and Kherson, but only a fraction of the other two, Zaporizka and Donetsk.Ukrainian officials have dismissed the voting as grotesque theater — staging polls in cities laid to waste by Russian forces and abandoned by most residents.
President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Ukraine’s allies for their steadfast support and said “the farce” of “sham referenda” would do nothing to change his nation’s fight to drive Russia from Ukraine.
The Ukrainian regime has resorted to pure terrorism to prevent the votes from happening:
Ukrainian partisans, sometimes working with special operations forces, have blown up warehouses holding ballots and buildings where Russian proxy officials preparing for the vote held meetings. Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that they are engaged in a campaign to assassinate key Russian administration officials; more than a dozen have been blown up, shot and poisoned, according to Ukrainian and Russian officials.
Such behavior by the Zelenski regime against its still Ukrainian compatriots will only encourage the people in the four oblast to vote for an alignment with Russia.
The propaganda in the 'west' will declare that the vote is irregular and that the results, likely to be pro-Russian, will be fake.
But a view on historic election outcomes since Ukrainian independence in 1991 show clear geographic preferences in east and south Ukraine for pro-Russian policies:
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The graphic above is from research published by the Eurasian Research Institute of the International Hoca Ahmet Yesevi Turkish-Kazakh University. Its author writes:
As we can see, the have always been a clear-cut geographical split in the way the regions of Ukraine vote for particular candidates. The East and West division or also referred as Southeast and Northwest division was always present throughout the electoral history of the independent Ukraine. It is conventionally believed that the eastern part of Ukraine is more influenced by Russia politically, economically and culturally. Therefore, the presidential candidates proposing more pro-Russian agenda usually gain much more political support in eastern regions than in other parts of Ukraine. On the other hand, the western part of the country has traditionally been more pro-European with strong reference to traditional core Ukrainian ethnic traditions and values. Consequently, presidential candidates with pro-European political agenda and traditional Ukrainian appeal usually had strong support in western regions of the country. It is interesting to note that preferences of the electorate were not related to the geographical origin or background of the presidential candidates and any candidate could easily become popular in the east as well as in the west. Moreover, the same candidate could be both pro-eastern and pro-western in different periods of time as did Leonid Kuchma in 1994 and 1999, who is the only Ukrainian president to serve two consecutive terms from 1994 to 2005.
The division is consistent with ethnic and linguistic differences between those parts of Ukraine.
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In 2014, after the violent fascist coup in Kiev, one of the first laws implemented by the new government removed the Russian language from official use. Instead of overcoming the differences between its people it only sealed the predominant split in Ukraine.
The election promise of the current Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelenski to make peace with the Russia aligned rebellious Donbas region by adhering to the Minsk 2 agreements was rewarded with a large share of southeastern votes for his presidency. However, after having been threatened with death by fascists, Zelenski has made a 180 degree turn and has since posed as Ukrainian nationalist. In consequence he has lost all support in southeastern Ukraine.
The southeastern parts of today's Ukraine have for centuries been part of the central Russian empire. They were only attached to the Soviet Republic of Ukraine under Lenin's rule in 1922 and, in the case of Crimea, in 1954 under Nikita Khrushchev who himself had grown up in the Donbas region.
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A likely high turnout and majority vote for membership in the Russian Federation will only correct the historic misalignment created by those illogical transfers.
Posted by b on September 23, 2022 at 10:18 UTC | Permalink
next page »A vote is only a legitimate vote . . . if the "great" United States of Death, Disease and Destruction says so!
These 4 "oblasts" are all going home to Mother Russia. Finally.
It won't stop the Ukies terrorist attacks, but now after incorporation into the RF, they will be fully treated as such.
Posted by: Sam Smith | Sep 23 2022 10:28 utc | 2
"if Kiev attacks these territories then Russian Constitution will apply" - Kremlin Spokesman Peskov
This dude (who reminds me of the guy from Pink Panther) knows how many times Russia was attacked this year and they didn't do anything about it, before or after?
Belgorod was hit again today. no deaths, just destroyed houses and cars. Great advertising for Donbass voters "you'll die just like before, but you'll be in Russia now"
Posted by: rk | Sep 23 2022 10:48 utc | 3
It is sickening how brainwashed westerners are: referendums in Ukraine is bad because they might vote wrong!
Donbas will surely vote Yes but Kherson for example? No, and if they vote no, what will happen then?
West have regardless lost it completely. Especially sad how deep germany have drifted since Merkel,
Justice Minister Marco Buschmann : Germany welcomes Russian Putin-hating draft dodgers
https://swentr.site/news/563357-germany-russians-draft-asylum/
Same moron have of course no idea what is going on in Ukraine. Useful idiot!
Ukrainian armored vehicle with swastika featured on German TV (VIDEO)
https://swentr.site/russia/563338-ukraine-swastika-vehicle-video/
Is the nazi hatred Germany had for russians 80 years ago making a comeback?
Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23 2022 10:59 utc | 4
If Russia wins all 4 referendums, she will defend these territories militarily with all it takes. Expect to see mutual escalations first of conventional warfare, until either Putin makes good on his promise to go nuclear if he must. Otherwise, if things are going well for the Russian side, expect the West to stage a nuclear false flag on Ukrainian controlled soil, so they can point fingers at the Russian side as an excuse to further escalate. As long as Europe, the US and UK cannot stop this madness, but I can't see who would lead them in doing that. Currently, I cannot help anticipating the worst.
Posted by: grunzt | Sep 23 2022 11:05 utc | 5
Can't wait for the expected Western hysteria and over the top outrage when the four Oblasts vote to re join Russia.
Posted by: Hass | Sep 23 2022 11:08 utc | 6
Zelensky was posing when he pretended to be a peacemaker, not when he was being a Nationalist. Nationalism in this context means apartheid , genocide and war, the things he is as notorious as Hitler for.
Posted by: Giyane | Sep 23 2022 11:14 utc | 7
@Zanon
"but Kherson for example? No, and if they vote no, what will happen then?"
Under Russian law, it is impossible to join a region without the positive results of a general referendum in that region.
Posted by: Baklan | Sep 23 2022 11:15 utc | 8
The impotent rage from the collective West means nothing to people who have been living under unrelenting fascist violence for the past 8 years.
I read that the mad man of Istabul is asking "world leaders"(who are those?) to talk to Putin and Zelensky. Rubbish! Too late. After supporting the escalation with sales of ineffective drones to the neo-nazis in Ukraine, he's now asking for dialogue.
Posted by: Steve | Sep 23 2022 11:19 utc | 9
At least the "autocratic" (Biden's statement) RF offers the opportunity to vote something which is denied to citizens of the "democratic west who are denied the opportunity to engage in debate. See the following:
Posted by: Sushi | Sep 23 2022 11:25 utc | 10
Don't feed the trolls or spokespeople reciting talking points based on a "history" dishonestly limited to the last 6 months.
Posted by: dfg | Sep 23 2022 11:27 utc | 11
Every person who grew up in Soviet Union, knows this as everyone knows that earth is round. 1/3 of Ukraine , east are pro Russian, 1/3, west is mostly poles, very against Russian, 1/3 in middle are Ukrainians who always switched sides historically and can get along with both sides. The vote will be in favor of Russia, the question what is next. I believe Russia will declare war on Ukraine officially. What will US do? That is the biggest question. I hope it stay out of it, just sends its weapons. If not, we are all in big trouble. Will midterm elections help? It might be late. Also did you know that 95% of world semiconductors noen grade , main ingredient in chips is produced in Mariupol , Ukraine. Also92% of wild advanced chips manufacturing is in Taiwan.
Posted by: Rod | Sep 23 2022 11:29 utc | 12
Posted by: rk | Sep 23 2022 10:48 utc | 4
rk, I had the exact same thought. Nobody is afraid of Russia's threats anymore. In March yes, there was still some anxiousness, but now ? For God's sake, Ukraine is shelling all border towns, they even attacked the fvcking headquarters of the Black Fleet in Sebastopol and most likely blew up an air base, and what happened ? Strictly nothing.
So in all probability, referenda won't change one thing for the Donetsk residents (and others) being shelled daily. It will continue because Russia won't do anything. And Russia won't do anything because it CAN'T do anything. Enough with this bullshit of millions of soldiers and weapons just waiting to be used. I'll believe it when I'll see it.
I must say that these past weeks have been a real eye-opener for me. The predictions and projections of the most famous "Urrapatriots" (Saker, Martyanov) have been completely exposed and ridiculed.
Russia does not need to mobilize ! It's beating Ukraine hands down with its current troops ! Those were the bleatings of Martyanov since February. Now guess what fvckface, Russia is mobilizing. Are we having some kind of apology, at least just something along the line of "maybe I was just a tiny bit overconfident..." Nope. This insufferable prick remains as arrogant as ever despite being proven wrong in the most eclatant manner. Yeah but...
It's different now ! NATO is in the fight with Ukraine ! Saker spent the last 8 years explaining to us that NATO and US Empire were propping up Ukraine by every means necessary. Now you're telling me you didn't expect NATO would support Ukraine by all means possible ? Fck off. Besides, Saker and Martyanov ALSO spent the last 8 years telling us NATO was a paper tiger and that Russia could easily rout them. I smell a contradiction here.
We're fighting to root out Nazism ! It's an existential fight !Yeah. And in other news Russia just decided to exchange the most valuable Azov guys for a used up corrupt oligarch. What the fvck.
Ukraine is going to collapse any day now ! It's almost over ! Or so we've heard since about the 26th of February. Meanwhile Ukie troops are establishing a bridge over the Oskil and seriously threatening Krasny Liman. Russian aviation is about as numerous as pimples on Miss Universe's butt. Why ? Because Ukrainian AA capabilities remain formidable. Why ? Because MoD vastly inflated its numbers re destroyed equipment, and because most of the RU aviation is old useless Soviet junk.
There's no Ukraine armor anymore ! Look at the clobber lists ! Yeah, and if you believe the MoD reports I've got a bridge to sell you. They're about as credible and useful as the bodycounts the US used to publish every day during the Vietnam war. I would guess the clobber list goes through 4 to 5 hierarchical levels, each level doubling the figures provided by the level below.
The Russian higher command is full of 180-IQ geniuses who plan 30 moves in advance ! Trust the plan ! Most likely the Russian higher command is made of 1)50% of useless fat incompetent guys who stayed there because they could not be hired anywhere else 2) 30% of sons of rich families who bought their diploma and medals 3)20% of halfway competent commanders, some of whom have been killed, the others probably tearing their hair in despair looking at the incompetence of their colleagues.
The simple reality is that, by declaring partial mobilization, Russia has officially conceded that 1) the original plan didn't work out 2) they have lost the strategic initiative and are now reacting to the events, ergo 3) the Russian army is far less powerful and competent than we assumed following the Syrian campaign.
Faced with this unpleasant reality most pro-Russian westerners prefer to close their eyes, shut their ears and believe in some kind of deus ex machina, like magical capabilities and reserves of the Russian army which for some reason haven't been used until now.
This is not that different from the hopes of the Germans during the second world war (the mythical Wunderwaffen promised by Goebbels) or the delusions of the Americans during the Vietnam war. Latest sad example being the attempt of explaining away the humiliating defeat around Izyum by some kind of well-prepared repositioning maneuver.
you want an example of a carefully planned withdrawal ? Try the German retreat in the Somme in 1917. The move was planned weeks in advance, the Germans systematically withdrew their weapons, destroyed everything, cutting up trees and shutting down wells, before falling back on an impenetrable fortification line. THAT was some kind of strategic move. The one around Izyum looks like a hasty compromise where Russians made the most of a shitty situation and manage to avoid total defeat, by not much. .
I know of only guy who managed to more or less salvage his reputation, and this is Strelkov. I don't ask much from the Saker and Martyanov (I won't speak about Gonzalo Lira as I don't take him seriously) but couldn't they just, for once in their life, show some bit of humility between posting useless music clips and copy-pasting content from elsewhere ?
Posted by: Micron | Sep 23 2022 11:30 utc | 13
How will people in Lyman, Donetsk, vote in this referendum when they are under assault by the AFU?
What is the game plan to let the AFU walk into Donetsk and start taking territory in the DPR?
I must admit, I may not be any good at 55D chess, I find it hard to understand why conceding territory in Donetsk is a good strategy after so many months.
Posted by: Julian | Sep 23 2022 11:31 utc | 14
September 27th is a red letter date. Results for the referenda will be announced. The Original break away regions, will vote to join Russia and its highly likely the other two will also.
In his address, Pres. Putin said the pay and benefits for the military of both break away regions will be aligned with those of Russia’s military. I take this to mean that these units will be absorbed into the mainstream of Russia’s military complex regardless of the outcome of the referenda. It also means that Russia will expand the array of equipment available to these regions in a massive way.
All together, “shit gon’ Be lit” from next weekend.
Posted by: VtObserver | Sep 23 2022 11:38 utc | 15
Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23 2022 10:59 utc | 5
It would have been nice if they had put in a link to the actual n-tv video. Then again, it seems that n-tv only keeps their videos in their "mediathek" for a couple of days.
Speaking of which, looking at the "news" they present there gives you a good idea about the ridiculous propaganda and misinformation handed out to the German public. And that is actually a "news broadcasting station"
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Sep 23 2022 11:46 utc | 16
This comment is to "karlof1 | 22 september 2022 18:40 utc | 183" it was published yesterday....
Please don´t despair, if some people who write comments here on Moon of Alabama don´t understand. We are many who read your and others´, for example bevin´s very wise comments,and we learn by reading your answers to other people. That´s dialectics. And the troll´s signatures we learn to recognize while we learn, and them we now don´t even care to read, thanks to you and the others. So thank you karlof1, keep writing!
Posted by: Northern Eve | Sep 23 2022 11:48 utc | 17
Posted by: Micron | Sep 23 2022 11:30 utc | 14
Excellent post.
As I have said already, everyone here is interpreting the referenda and partial mobilization as a sign that "the gloves are off" and Russia is about to go balls-out. Given what we know about Russia's miracle red lines, which are never crossed even when they are, this is very unlikely. This is an attempt by Russia to totally shut down all further kinetic action by either side. The mobilization is some sort of theatre in support. Like someone who doesn't really want to fight any more calling out "Come at me bro!" to save face.
Everyone was wrong. The SMO was a retarded idea. Now Russia is trying to extract its hands from the tar baby. We'll probably even see Europeans lighting up their gas fires and staying toasty warm in winter, because Russia "doesn't want to be an unreliable business partner."
These people never had what it took to defeat their enemies. We're going to have to watch this bullshit all over again in a few years. Let's hope that Russia has some suitably ruthless leaders then.
Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Sep 23 2022 11:49 utc | 18
Even in the virtual world of social.media, when a guy wearing a military green teeshirt , becomes a celebrity sex symbol , feted in all the capitals of the world, he remains responsible for his own actions in genociding Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine and refusing to stop doing it, thereby starting this war.
He cannot say that his minders, supporters in Nato, costume advisors etc forced him to make war.
USUKIS continue to call this SMO an invasion, but how is it possible to prevent genocide without controlling the land area.
The UN is partially responsible for the genocide , becsuse they refused to jntervene against USUKIS genocide against Russian speakers.
Talking about Zelensky as though he is just an actor is social.media fantasy
. Both he and his sponsors are fully responsible and fully accountable for this humanitarian intervention war. They will be brought to justice inshallah, along with Erdogan the master head-chopper in Syria.
Posted by: Giyane | Sep 23 2022 11:50 utc | 19
Russia's demographic presence in southern and eastern Ukraine goes back several centuries. Not many Westerners realize that those areas were long regarded as Russian frontier territory long before becoming part of the Ukrainian SSR.
In the 1500s, Russians first settled the Kharkov-Donbass region, and Ukrainians joined them at a later stage in history. At the time, the region was sovereign territory of the Tsardom of Moscow. Over the next few centuries, ethnic Russians always comprised 25% to 40% of the local population, with many of the ethnic Ukrainians being politically pro-Russian Russophones.
As for southern Ukraine, meaning the Black Sea littoral, Zaporozhye, Mariupol, Melitopol, Kherson, Nikolayev, and Odessa, this region became part of the Russian Empire in the late 1700s. Prior to then, the area was largely uninhabited. It was settled simultaneously by Russians, Ukrainians, Jews, Bulgarians, Moldovans and other ethnicities under Catherine the Great. Ethnic Russians generally comprised 25% of more the population, with Ukrainians accounting for another 60%. As with Kharkov-Donbass, many of the Ukrainians along the Black Sea coast became Russophones and harbored pro-Russian political leanings.
That's essentially the history of southern and eastern Ukraine. It was Russia long before it became part of Ukraine. I find it frustrating that so many poorly informed Westerners believe the region was "conquered" from Ukraine by "marauding, imperialistic" Russians. Even after 1991, as we all know, the majority in many parts of southern and eastern Ukraine clearly preferred union with Russia as opposed to remaining part of Ukraine.
Posted by: Rudi | Sep 23 2022 11:53 utc | 20
The memorial that US/UK nazi Ukraine put up at Babi yar. I did read about it a few months back but cannot remember who or what it was in remembrance of.
Russia have sounded things out and the referendum is a mere formality.
It is now a matter of waiting with interest for Sun Tzu's next move.
Over in the open thread, in aq comment I apologized to all for losing the plot in the last Ukraine thread, swamping it with one liners and do so again here.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 23 2022 11:54 utc | 21
baklan
Under Russian law, it is impossible to join a region without the positive results of a general referendum in that region.
Would they (Russia) risk getting a No at the referendum though?
CM of berlin
Here is a videoclip of the swastika on the tank on german tv
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/10242
Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23 2022 12:03 utc | 22
When USUKIS launches a little baby darling mininuke against RF, Putin has reminded them that this will trigger Armaggeddon.
That is the fact of the matter. The militaries of the """"" civilised """"" world fantasise about getting away with dropping a mininuke on their enemies forces.
These peoplexare living the pumped up world of social media. Drop a nuke on Russian forces, Weyhill all die together.
These are dangerously many shades of gey times. Let us be clear. ThexWest is a criminal mafia that has got away with murder fir far too long. Theirvpupoetscsnd Quisling politicians are all fully accountable personslly for the consequences of their own actions.
The reality is as Putin rightly says, the west is playing with fire.
Posted by: Giyane | Sep 23 2022 12:04 utc | 23
Posted by: rk | Sep 23 2022 10:48 utc | 4
You got it that these guys are all some bunch of lawyers, right?
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 23 2022 12:05 utc | 24
Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23 2022 10:59 utc | 5
.. again, since I did not comment on your "Nazi" remark re Germany.
This is actually bollocks, plain and simple. "Our politicians" know full well the amount of nationalism and neo-nazism abound in Ukraine, as well as the hatred for the Russians after years of indoctrination. Yet, West Germans have been subjected to hatred and fear of Russia and the Soviet Union for the best part of 50 to 60 years. Apart from some travel and nature documentaries, anything that is being said about Russia/USSR is painted in a negative colour, either deriding anything USSR/Russian or installing fear of the aforementioned. The same happened about anything East German after 1990, only that there is no-one out there fighting the at time utterly ridiculous statements about life et al in the former G.D.R.. That said, there is a reason why the participation in elections is down to 50 to 60 %, since people have simply lost faith in anything the polticians do, or simply do not feel represented by them.
Returning to your point, nope, there is no comeback of "Nazi-like hatred" for Russian (and IMHO, the Nazis did not hate Russia or the Soviet Union, but Communism). There is an obvious and deliberate ignorance of any right-wing / neo-nazi / Ultra-nationalist shortcomings within Ukraine by polticians and media alike, as there is a common enemy. And papering over that with all these remarks about Ukraine's fight for Democracy and Freedom is just taking their moral to just below snake-belly level. The hate of Russia was festering for the best part of 50 years now and they took the first best opportunity to go after Russia, no matter what. Again, those former East Germans (born between 1940 and 1970) have no fear of Russia, and lots of people in the street that I speak to, Germans, Turks, Arabs et al, have neither. There is hardly any understanding or acceptance of what the government does, despite what the compliant media puts out on a daily basis.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Sep 23 2022 12:06 utc | 25
In addition to self-determination, I see an underlying rationale for this annexion process.
Crimea being absolute security asset for Russia
Russia's grip on Crimea is hardly sustainable if they don't hold these adjacent parts as well.
That makes the move imo all the more necessary.
Posted by: lahire | Sep 23 2022 12:08 utc | 26
Posted by: Baklan | Sep 23 2022 11:15 utc | 9
I believe that Kherson will vote for joining Russia, as well as Zaporozhie Oblast - minus the big city of Zaporozhie itself which is under Banderista boot.
Here and only here lies some possible legal hurdle ... we'll see.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 23 2022 12:10 utc | 27
History will ask where were the leaders of europe, when they allowed fables to replace sober judgement? The nations of europe gave up their culture, fiscal control, border control, and now energy.
There will one day be a word or phrase used to encapsulate the sickness that has overtaken a once rich world, that threw away a thousand years of growth.
Posted by: James J | Sep 23 2022 12:11 utc | 28
History will ask where were the leaders of europe, when they allowed fables to replace sober judgement? The nations of europe gave up their culture, fiscal control, border control, and now energy.
There will one day be a word or phrase used to encapsulate the sickness that has overtaken a once rich world, that threw away a thousand years of growth.
Posted by: James J | Sep 23 2022 12:11 utc | 29
Looking at those maps it’s clear that Russia did to call up 300,000 reservists with combat experience simply for guard duty. They’re preparing for a push all the way to the border with Transnistria.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 23 2022 12:13 utc | 30
CM of Berlin
Thanks for your knowledge on this, yeah, alot of germans seems to be fed up with the politicians that have turned out horrible after Merkel rule.
Most Germans want talks with Russia – poll
Over 60% of respondents opposed supplying more heavy weapons to Ukraine
https://swentr.site/news/561891-poll-most-germans-want-talks-russia/
Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23 2022 12:17 utc | 32
Video on IntelSlava showing how much explosive power a suicide drone produces when it hits it target.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 23 2022 12:24 utc | 33
@micron
It took me3 articles to find shaker ,martynov r idiots who produce nothing but s... analysis. I m surprised someone who sounds so intelligent to discern the truth after so long. BTW I don't read those idiot.
The issue is the man writing the moa site. I always found his analysis on point and couple of times they were hit me over the head and opened my eyes on certain issue but it seems some of his assumptions with regards to current conflict has been proven wrong
MOA stated Russia will be able to continue to supply its troops with necessary ammunition; they r using s300 missiles as ground attack option
Moa stated any Ukrainian counter offensive will be cut down in the open plain yet the successful offensive in Kharkiv happened. Not only that the Ukrainians hid it'd op from Russian Intel they probably mislead the target of their build up with false signit.
ALSO why is Ukrainian airforce still operating. UNLESS they r launching from outside Ukraine this is sign of extreme incompetence by Russian armed forces. I genuinely hope moa does an analysis covering this
It seems we won't have any idea what will be the end result until it is actually over as western msm is just pure propaganda and the alternative news media is also getting things wrong
Posted by: A.z | Sep 23 2022 12:24 utc | 34
Posted by: Down South | Sep 23 2022 12:13 utc | 31
RUSSIA Failing to take all the East bank of the Dnieper Nikolaev and Odessa oblast will lead to political and military failure.
It has become necessary to dismantle Ukraine despite all support to its oligarchs that persist in the Kremlin.
Abandon Lvov, Ivanofrankisk, Ternopol to Poland, Lutsk and Rovno to Belarus, Chernovitsy to Romania, Ujgorod to Hungary. The rest to Medvedchuk...
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 23 2022 12:25 utc | 35
They destroy mykoliev to get the azov yet release the azov leadership for a thoroughly discredited oligarch.
Posted by: A.z | Sep 23 2022 12:28 utc | 36
After any or all of the four south-eastern oblasts determine by referendum to join the Russian Federation, and the Russian Duma ratifies their accession, President Putin is likely to formally, one last time, present Ukraine and NATO with Russia's peace terms.
Bar-flies have warned our respective governments in Europe and elsewhere to anticipate and pursue this last and best chance for an early peace. Will any government of a member-State of the EU or NATO stand against the collective psychosis of the US-led West? I can see no reason to be hopeful.
If Ukraine and NATO reject or thwart this final offer to negotiate a political settlement and continue to attack the territories of the Russian Federation, then President Putin will declare legal justification to impose a settlement that ensures Russia's security by all necessary military means.
It is conceivable that Russia will at that point declare war on Ukraine. When and how exactly it will end I won't dare predict. All I can feel sure of is that Russia will prevail or.......what is the good of a world without Russia?
Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Sep 23 2022 12:28 utc | 37
As an American, it's awkward thinking that the best thing that could happen is for the US govt. to provoke *another* war and lose decisively. And I reject and condemn the idea that thinking this way is "anti-american".
Posted by: chunga | Sep 23 2022 12:30 utc | 38
Rod 13
Brilliant synopsis I must say, I didn't know Mauripol was such a vital cog in the wheel of global technological manufacturing. No wonder it was so heavily defended by Kiev. Like you, I fear the US reaction, mainly because it is quite clear that insanity and desperation are the only two functioning characteristics functioning in Washington.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Sep 23 2022 12:30 utc | 39
Lavrov at the UN security council "Zelenski has said that Russians need to go back to Russia. Well today, they are doing EXACTLY that". Pure class from the best diplomat ever.
Posted by: Kaiama | Sep 23 2022 12:30 utc | 40
Citizens of the four oblasts get to vote on joining the Russian Federation. Perhaps it's a foregone conclusion, but it's a vote. I missed the bit where citizens in Britain and EU got to vote on whether they wanted to support 'freezing for Zelensky's fascists' this winter. And we certainly didn't get a choice about the immense contributions of cash and lethal aid from the magic money tree which might have gone to the millions of Brits in food poverty. Even the relatively small Russian mobilisation excluded children, OAPs, students etc. etc. Good thing we in the US neocolonial fan club have democracy to rely on, unlike those poor oppressed warm SOBs in Russia.
Posted by: TPaine | Sep 23 2022 12:34 utc | 41
Ukr forces killing electioneers seem like terrorists,but there are, you know, actual laws for war. Citing them helps make your case. It’s not much but it would be something.
Also, Western media talks up the Ukr resistance as a people’s war with a wide range of irrrgular forces, but my understanding is that soldiers are supposed to be uniformed. I would think that a large non uniformed fighting force would be a mitigating factor for certain war crimes claims against the other side (example: combatants may struggle to differentiate between soldier and civilians if some civilians are also part-time soldiers).
There are arguments to be made. I don’t see people making them. I may do it myself but I don’t have the relevant educational background to be credible to a western audience on questions of international law.
Posted by: GoFast | Sep 23 2022 12:35 utc | 42
Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Sep 23 2022 12:28 utc | 38
If Ukraine and NATO reject or thwart this final offer to negotiate a political settlement and continue to attack the territories of the Russian Federation, then President Putin will declare legal justification to impose a settlement that ensures Russia's security by all necessary military means.
Alternatively, he'll do nothing. Shrug it all off during the annual Q&A, perhaps.
People conduct a lot of detailed analysis here, which all comes undone because of a failure to face the true nature of the current Russian leadership.
Putin is intensely legalistic, cautious, and a minimalist. If he could defeat Ukraine with one wave of his hand tomorrow, once in a lifetime chance, never to be repeated, he'd pass it up if the paperwork wasn't *exactly* right.
Putin has done a good job of reconstructing Russia, but he is not a war leader. It just isn't in him.
Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Sep 23 2022 12:38 utc | 43
Posted by: rk | Sep 23 2022 10:48 utc | 4
There are hit and run terror pot shots (and denial by the perpatrators due to fear) which is what has happened in Belgorod and Crimea.
And then there is a concerted effort invade and capture annexed territory.
The latter will never happen now with the 4 newly integrated areas. Yet as far as I understand it the Nazi regime have staked their future of recapturing all areas?
Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 23 2022 12:42 utc | 44
How come Kosovo and similar states could depart but not Crimea, Donbas etc? Western world is beyond hypocrites.
EU already have sanctions coming, shooting themselves in the foot once again, when will they wake up realizing they cannot win this frggin war?
More EU anti-Russia sanctions on the way — FT
The restrictions will reportedly include a price cap on Russian oil and measures targeting the country’s IT sector
https://swentr.site/business/563378-new-package-eu-sanctions/
Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23 2022 12:42 utc | 45
Seems to me the German economic fate is sealed. Even if their leaders came to their senses tomorrow any settlement with Russia will be massively expensive, even that storage they are so proud to have filled to 80% was the property of Gazprom before they stole it.
Remember the Americans convinced them the Russians would be begging for mercy by now, they still say so in the MSM daily nothing else is possible.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Sep 23 2022 12:44 utc | 46
Very swift development, and also the unexpected prisoner exchange with the Azov hotshots delivered. An optimistic (at least in my view) interpretation of both these two events might be that we are looking at some sort of temporary settlement, negotiated in secret with the Americans.
Russia gets these four regions, the conflict is frozen after Donetsk is cleared, and the Europeans get the juice for one more winter. I think this is better than WW3. But I am likely too optimistic.
Posted by: veto | Sep 23 2022 12:54 utc | 47
Down South@34:
My reaction to that video. A loud "Jesus Christ!"
Now I really get it, drones effect on the battle field.
Posted by: morongobill | Sep 23 2022 13:02 utc | 48
I don't believe the west is really worried about referenda as long as their own citizens don't ask to have any.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Sep 23 2022 13:08 utc | 49
"Putin is intensely legalistic, cautious, and a minimalist..."
Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Sep 23 2022 12:38 utc | 44
Which is precisely my point. Everything by the book, the UN Charter and the laws of war.
Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Sep 23 2022 13:09 utc | 50
veto@48:
Your post is very interesting. Can you tell us more?
Posted by: morongobill | Sep 23 2022 13:09 utc | 51
joe9211
Please drop the f_ bombs and the "in the reader's face approach" with your posts
and you might be better received.
Posted by: morongobill | Sep 23 2022 13:13 utc | 52
Can someone explain how a ballot vote with options "Independent country" or "Joining RF" is credible, fair or even sensible? No one is buying this farce of an event. If SE Ukraine is mostly pro-Russian, why not options "Leaving Ukraine" or "Remaining with Ukraine" instead?
Posted by: Krištof | Sep 23 2022 13:15 utc | 53
Posted by: Krištof | Sep 23 2022 13:15 utc | 54
No one is buying this farce of an event
I would suggest the RF are taking it very seriously indeed.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 23 2022 13:24 utc | 54
Re: Posted by: Krištof | Sep 23 2022 13:15 utc | 54
To split hairs, it could be.
In Luhansk & Donetsk: A) Joining Russia or B) Remaining Independent.
In Kherson & Zaporozhye: A) Leaving Ukraine or B) Remaining with Ukraine.
Luhansk & Donetsk are (obviously) already Independent - the other two aren't.
Posted by: Julian | Sep 23 2022 13:25 utc | 55
A lot of commenters seemed to have missed the point of formally integrating the eastern Ukraine regions into the Russian federation. The legal nicety clears the way for Russia to then deploy reserves in those territories. Under Russian law, reserves can only be mobilised for deployment on Russian territory. They cannot be used in Syria for example. Up until now Russia has tried to get by with a couple of corps of regular or 'contract' troops, banking on a highly flexible response along a 1000 km frontline, mainly reinforcing DPR and LPR regular troops, who have limited reserves. This is nothing like the full extent of the standing Russian army of course, but the bulk of that must attend to other defensive postures. Russia obviously knows full well that this could easily escalate to a war with Western Europe. It's not putting all its eggs in just the Ukraine basket. Instead it's adopted a strategy of robbing one battleground there to reinforce another. But with Amerika's growing boots on the ground, sooner or later these economies would be found out - as the Kharkov counterattack demonstrated. Now at least a third corps, currently bottled up at the Crimean border, I gather, will soon reinforce the southern front, allowing at least for some of the Lugansk contingent to return to the thorny issue of Kharkov.
I don't think it's true that Russia has not responded to things like the sabotage on bases in Crimea. But they are scarcely acknowledged by either side. There was, for example, the air strikes on the Vinnissia airport (this distinct from the earlier strikes on the city centre) which was clearly targetting a reciprocal base (SAS? Seals? Special Forces?) There's an awful lot of this conflict that amounts to horse trading behind the scenes, concerning what weapons and tactics are permitted.
Posted by: Gerry Bell | Sep 23 2022 13:27 utc | 56
@Krištof #54:
Can someone explain how a ballot vote with options "Independent country" or "Joining RF" is credible, fair or even sensible?
Such a choice would indeed be unfair. But that’s not the choice that is being presented. The choice is between:
Option 1. Proclaim independence from the Ukraine, then immediately join the Russian Federation.
Option 2. Don’t do that (i.e., stay part of the Ukraine).
Posted by: S | Sep 23 2022 13:27 utc | 57
Posted by: morongobill | Sep 23 2022 13:09 utc | 52
There's something like this – rezident_ua:
Our source in the OP [Zelenskyy Presidential Office] told us that the prisoner exchange case is on the list of the "Big Deal," which is supposed to freeze the conflict in Ukraine. The main mediator is Erdogan and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. The surrender at Azovstal took place under guarantees from the Turkish president, as our source reported in the early days, and now these arrangements have begun to be implemented.
Original:
Наш источник в ОП рассказал, что кейс с обменом пленных идёт в списке «Большой сделки», которая должна заморозит конфликт в Украине. Основным посредником выступают Эрдоган и Мухаммед ибн Салман Аль Сауд. Сдача в плен на Азовстали проходила под гарантиями Президента Турции, о чем наш источник сообщил в первые дни, а сейчас эти договоренности начали реализовываться.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/14169
Posted by: js | Sep 23 2022 13:29 utc | 58
Putin is/has been weak, soft and/or naive towards the collective West, NATO and its intentions towards him personally and Russia, he needs to wake up and grow some balls.
Posted by: Hannibal | Sep 23 2022 13:30 utc | 59
Posted by: Micron | Sep 23 2022 11:30 utc
Yes agree and Martyanov is full of **** I’ve given up trying to post common sense there because it just gets deleted after being called a troll
Russia failed to deliver a decisive victory in the first few weeks. Like an arrogant over confident football team that are living from past glories they failed to respect their enemy and it’s potential
Now they face 700,000 angry men on their front with NATO armor and they don’t know what to do.
Posted by: Pr34 | Sep 23 2022 13:35 utc | 60
It seems that the RF government has decided that most Russians now understand their entry in Donbass has become yet another amerikan 'forever war', a war that will not, cannot in fact end until amerika concedes defeat and judging by its previous interminable wars, this one is going to alternate hot & medium for at least twenty years.
It was obvious to anyone who paused to actually think, that this was inevitable since no one can imagine an end which amerika would accept other than total Russian defeat which is improbable, so here we are again less than 12 months after the arseholes fled Afghanistan in yet another pile of stinking shit sitting in the middle of the mantlepiece flanked by virtually identical piles of shit, one representing Syria and the other Yemen. Hell there's room fer a couple more up there I reckon, but I digress.
The thing is now the never ending nature of this conflict is obvious even to an apocryphal Blind Freddy, WTF are euro pols doing? They must comprehend that every day this blue continues, the lives of their citizens worsen and, more relevantly for them, the existence of the little pond these frogs sit in becomes more endangered.
As things are proceeding right now euros, (including englanders who despite their assertions to the contrary are cast iron euros) their nation states will struggle to keep their societies intact following one winter of this madness, twenty winters which is the probable outcome, will absolutely destroy their societies, their economies, their political systems plus the horse that malodorous mob rode in on, yet virtually every man-jack of 'em seems determined to persist with this moronic, inexcusable absurdity.
It is tough to accept that amerikan bribery, blackmail and bullying is sufficient to secure unanimity for this lunacy, but what else could it be?
At some stage at least some of them will be forced to eat crow so I reckon that euro citizens should devote effort to preempting any possible escape route that their current crop of lower than a snake's belly 'leaders' may try on. eg The Truss and any other englander parliamentarians' most likely prevarication is inevitably going to try to summon the ghost of Betty Mountbatten-Windsor to his/her defence by whining something along the lines of "Remember how distraught we all were in 2022, the death of our queen discombobulated us all, myself included. Surely one must expect any loyal brit to do as I did failing to see zelensky & biden's perfidious plot whilst one is so oppressed by grief" or some-such. Therefore englanders must negate any such escape strategy by ridiculing the lame packaged, performative grief that all pols on that benighted island have been expressing, do it now loudly to show that anyone who insists upon being overcome by the death of a 96 y.o. human is being either delusional or playacting.
There are many possibilities best identified by euro citizens in each nation of the lines these careerist yet vacuous arseholes will try on. Now is the time to ensure that no amount of semantic contorting will prevent them being regarded by the future as greedy morons fit for nothing.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Sep 23 2022 13:41 utc | 61
Greg Galloway@35
Spot on. The Frankenstein Monster which was created by the Bolsheviks and Soviets, formerly known in those days as the Ukraine SSR, a major element within the bureaucratic, administrative infrastructure of the USSR needs to be disassembled. When a pair of minority/plurality elements took over the state apparatus, beginning with those CIA-sponsored early moves during the Yeltsin years; the die was cast for the current climate of oppression.
Lording it over various minorities, who add up to being a majority, is a crime against humanity. This situation was, as most posters here realize, created by hostile forces who currently rule the collective Western polities as their puppet regimes. A free and independent Ukraine will emerge after all is said and done. It will include those Ukrainian dialect oblasts, an entity which makes up not quite half of the Frankenstein Monster's current territory.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 13:44 utc | 62
Gerry Bell | Sep 23 2022 13:27 utc | 57
IMHO, no one missed nothing. There are just doing what they came here for : trolling. I can count at least four of them in this threat (same two ones ?).
Trying to "mitigate" the clear narrative of what's going on in Ukraine, Russia and rest of the world - as they say-. (We from Africa are not very friendly with this "RoW" and what is involved in it)
Trying to make all of us coming here to have news, analyses and documented opinions leave the place...
But their "moves" are too obviously "too much" to reach the goal. Just to ignore as the "old ones" have suggested...
Posted by: UncleTom | Sep 23 2022 13:49 utc | 63
I recommend all those here read John Helmer's latest essay.....
http://johnhelmer.net/and-then-there-were-none-2/#more-68954
Some highlights......
There’s no mystery now about the war of Europe and North America against Russia; it is the continuation of Germany’s war of 1939-45 and the war aims of the General Staff in Washington since 1943. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) and President Vladimir Putin (right) both said it plainly enough this week.
There is also no mystery in the decision-making in Moscow of the President and the Defense Minister, the General Staff, and the others; it is the continuation of the Stavka of 1941-45.
Counting down is what must be done in the meantime to distinguish between the phony war and the world war, between the propaganda and the truth of the matter.
Watch and listen to Shoigu’s interview, sub-titled in English and broadcast on national television on Wednesday[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0IISOayQ90].
The planning of offensive operations will become regular, and several offensives can be carried out simultaneously on different sections of the front. And, finally, with the help of fresh reinforcements, the consequences of the use of western weapons, which in the last month began to prevail in the composition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, can be stopped.”
Much of the speculation by Evgeny Krutikov advocates a waste of the newly available resource(s). He speculates they will be used on the existing 1200 km front. I don't think so. Much better to use them to slice and dice Ukraine along the Denipr River on the steppe to enfilade and attack the Ukies in their rear. This will require destruction of virtually all of Ukraine's 1300 locomotives, and the fuel dumps, probably via those newly acquired Iranian drones..
Then those millions of Ukie conscripts can fight like their grandfathers did... by walking to battle carrying their kit on their back.
Events will prove which strategy is adopted.
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 23 2022 13:50 utc | 64
I want to ask all the newbie barflys that are spouting all this gibberish about how Russia/Putin is not being aggressive enough a question.
What are you going to think when this civilization war that is being fought is won by the non-aggressors, using non-aggressive, but defensive tactics?
Back in the annals of MoA threads there is lots of discussion about the last 2K+ years of unfettered patriarchy and its bastard child, monotheistic religions. Those concepts are the underpinnings of the God of Mammon social system of the West with global private finance at the core.......it may not look like it but the voting in Ukraine is a vote for/against God of Mammon hegemony and represents use of a non-aggressive tool in our civilization war by the good side.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 23 2022 13:50 utc | 65
The instant relief of the plebecites is that troops in the regions that vote to join Russia are immediately replaceable with *whichever* troops Stavka chooses. In this sense the referenda are *not* related to the call up - that will have mid term benefits after the new conscripts are retrained and prepared for battle, while the referenda have immediate benefits (sort of, obviously redeploying any troops from one area to another is never immediate)
So for instance if in Lugansk there are say 50,000 troops (LNDR, RF professional, Wagner, etc), after acceptance into RF Stavka is free to replace those 50,000 with anything from normal conscripts, to RF professional soldiers or whatever, in a defensive mode of protecting the RF frontier. Now technically, they could have done this after the attacks by Ukie/NATO into the RF itself or Crimea, but the optics of that are elephant gun vs. gnat.
If all four regions join, Stavka can apply the full existing set of SMO troops as they deem best, including taking the rest of Donetsk, Zapo., Nikolaev, Odessa, etc and/or rebuilding the Lugansk troops into a real RF army w/ the proper equipment, troop rotation and R&R etc... at least, Stavka will no longer have an excuse of not having enough troops to defend against Ukie/NATO attacks, and will have the option of for example letting Wagner do its thing and not having to hurriedly move them to another front because the Ukies are about to counterattack.
Posted by: Simplicius | Sep 23 2022 13:52 utc | 66
@67 psychohistorian
"...unfettered patriarchy and its bastard child, monotheistic religions."
Sorry dude, you obviously have no clue about Christianity
Posted by: xeen | Sep 23 2022 13:52 utc | 67
Go Fast @42
Please don't feel the need to fret yourself over the chimera called "International Law". The outlaw puppet regime in the Di$trict of Corruption, as the prime example, has violated virtually each and every treaty it has ever signed, beginning with those words such "as long as the sun shall rise and grass shall grow", by which they bamboozled Native American tribe after tribe.
Why do I call the mess in the Di$trict of Corruption a puppet regime, you might ask? As bad as the Yankees were were up to the fatal creation of the "Federal" Reserve bank in 1913; they were pikers compared with the ruling Bank$ters centering on City of London and various other haunts of a particular tribalist ethnicity which is run, mafiya style, by dirty tricks learned by their "elders" in Babylon some 2,500 years ago. Their goal is total world domination. Russia currently stands in the way of their nefarious schemes.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 13:55 utc | 68
Zelensky was posing when he pretended to be a peacemaker, not when he was being a Nationalist. Nationalism in this context means apartheid , genocide and war, the things he is as notorious as Hitler for.Posted by: Giyane | Sep 23 2022 11:14 utc | 7
Zelensky is an actor. He is always posing. There is a reason that actors were considered of lower class than prostitutes in ancient times.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 23 2022 13:56 utc | 69
Do I detect the babble of a concern troll via the mechanism of a ringtone?
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 13:57 utc | 70
Debsisdead @62
It isn't like the Empire's wars just started. The only difference is that now someone is fighting back who has a longer reach than goat herders armed with sticks.
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 23 2022 13:58 utc | 71
In response to "
@67 psychohistorian
"...unfettered patriarchy and its bastard child, monotheistic religions."
Sorry dude, you obviously have no clue about Christianity
Posted by: xeen | Sep 23 2022 13:52 utc | 69
"
I have 12 years of formal Catholic education, 4 years with Pope Frank's Jesuits... I turned 74 yesterday and over 50 years ago spent a full year studying humanities future with a cultural anthropologist.
Sorry dude, you have no clue about humanity
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 23 2022 13:59 utc | 72
Zanon@45
The good people of Europe must come to their senses and grow a pair. The EU is a fake entity, which was designed to be run by their administrative bureaucrats in Brussels. That Bank$ter controlled bureaucracy does not in any way, shape, manner or form represent the will and the wishes of the people of the various European nations. The EU must be demolished. If there ever is to be a united Europe, it can only be realized by open referendums by each and every national population, should they wish to participate in such an entity.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 14:02 utc | 73
Corrupted unelected bureacurat Von der Leyen threatens the Italians: "We will see the result of the vote in Italy. If things go in a difficult direction, we have tools, as in the case of Poland and Hungary."
Posted by: denazi | Sep 23 2022 14:02 utc | 74
I expect a declaration of war within 2 months. Probably from the US. Everyone I know is in denial. They have normalcy bias.
Posted by: Leroy | Sep 23 2022 14:02 utc | 75
b > "In 2014, after the violent fascist coup in Kiev, one of the first laws implemented by the new government removed the Russian language from official use."
The great irony was that at the first cabinet meeting after the coup was conduce\ted in Russian because it was the only language everyone knew. The meeting included a former US State Department employee as Finance Minister, we assume to ensure "10% for the Big Guy".
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 23 2022 14:02 utc | 76
@63 aristodemos
Scott Ritter recently interviewed Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Donetsk People's Republic's «Vostok» Battalion
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOl7Yy7ljwo
Very interesting, also opened Ritter's eyes. The commander gave the real reason for the conflict, really simple actually. The mostly tiny-hat oligarchs grabbed the substantial former wealth of Ukraine after the fall of the Soviet-Union, and fought amongst each other for the loot. Which is when the Neo-Nazi outfits were set up and funded by them, as body guards and militias. The tiny hats are afraid that Vlad is going to come back and take their toys away, which is why they put up such a stink. That's it really.
Posted by: xeen | Sep 23 2022 14:05 utc | 77
Am I just imagining this or are trolls, particularly of the "concern" variety, thicker than flies on a hog or fleas on a dog on this thread. Their paymasters must be getting very nervous about the referendums and Russia's partial mobilization.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 14:05 utc | 78
“Semper Supra,” was unveiled as The Space Force's official song on Tuesday, according to a press release from the newest U.S. military branch.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/20/space-force-military-branch-son-00057734
Remind anyone of 'Über Alles?'
Posted by: JohnH | Sep 23 2022 14:09 utc | 79
By Aristodemos...
The level of idiocy on the part of the mostly paid trolls on today's thread just keeps growing exponentially. They not only are using their "B-Team" today, but also their scarcely literate "C" and "D" teams. Langley and their associates in London in MI6 must be getting desperate over the looming defeat in Ukraine.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 14:13 utc | 80
@75 psychohistorian
"I have 12 years of formal Catholic education, 4 years with Pope Frank's Jesuits... I turned 74 yesterday and over 50 years ago spent a full year studying humanities future with a cultural anthropologist."
Good for you, I hope it gives you some comfort. But if you ever read the bible, you should know that God has little respect for the "wise" and "powerful", and often knowledge is in fact an impediment to faith, since we can only believe from the heart, not from the mind. In our modern institutions, both church and university, only the mind is trained, not the heart. Btw., since I have a PhD and 4 masters degrees, pls. don't start dissing me on being uneducated.
Posted by: xeen | Sep 23 2022 14:14 utc | 81
@71 Opport Knocks
"Zelensky is an actor. He is always posing. There is a reason that actors were considered of lower class than prostitutes in ancient times."
Zelensky is not an actor, he is an agent, of Kolmojski and his ilk. Slight but significant difference.
Posted by: xeen | Sep 23 2022 14:19 utc | 82
xeen@69
Obviously you have no understanding of the development of Constantine's Bible.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 14:19 utc | 83
I went from US Army 3rd Armored Division in W. Germany in the late 1960's, waiting to be obliterated by 30 divisions of Soviet armor, to cheering for Russia in 2022. How did my government manage to accomplish my transition?
Posted by: Leroy | Sep 23 2022 14:20 utc | 84
There’s no mystery now about the war of Europe and North America against Russia; it is the continuation of Germany’s war of 1939-45
Interesting dates Helmer chose.........1939 was when Hitler invaded Poland 1 Sept 1939 - 2 Sept 1939 was when USA declared Neutrality - 3 Sept 1939 is when Britain (11am) declared War and France (5pm).........17 Sept 1939 is when USSR invaded Poland from east.
June 1941 is when Britain and USSR allied against Germany and 7 Dec 1941 is when Hitler declared war on USA.
As for German War aims they were the same in 1941 as in 1914..........as Battle of Tannenberg - on site of battle of 1410 - evidenced.
Germany created "ukraine" in two world wars - once through Brest-Litovsk - and again in 1941 - it has no doubt been instrumental this time through Maidan and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
So I agree with Helmer but find his dates a bit suspect..........
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Sep 23 2022 14:23 utc | 85
xeen@85
Though you are quite informed on the "Tiny Hats", your religiosity needs some self-examination. As a starter, may I recommend reading the "apocryphal" Gospel of Thomas. In that book, Thomas does not support the allegation that "Jesus died on the cross to save us from our sins". What we discover in the book is that Jesus was a great spiritual teacher.
The Roman emperor Constantine created not only the Bible, which was composed of "acceptable" texts as reviewed and redacted by the likes of the egregious Eusibius; was concocted to form a new obedience centered basis religion for the Roman Imperial state.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 14:27 utc | 86
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 23 2022 14:05 utc | 81
The situation is ambiguous and I can understand well-intentioned arguments coming from both sides.
Micron and Herr Ringbone rightly note that some of the most popular and often cited pro-Russian sources have been proven wrong again and again since the outset of the SMO in February. The Saker and Martanyov have been hurrahing and changing goal posts for seven months now.
Putin's admission that mobilization is required because the war is no longer with Ukraine but with the collective West--that is to say, with the US empire--is something that was obvious from the beginning of the conflict, whenever one chooses to date that beginning. There are two options for reading Putin's admission, then. Either Russia did not anticipate the extent of the commitment of the West to this war, or Russia did anticipate it as a possible, perhaps likely, but not *certain* contingency. Hence the attempt to negotiate a cease-fire in March with Ukraine via Turkey. There are grounds to criticize Russian leadership in either scenario.
Alexander Mercouris has argued that Russia attempted the Syrian approach to the Ukraine war. This approach worked in Syria, but did not work in Ukraine. Now Russia has to change approach. Again, there are grounds for criticizing Russia for even thinking that the Syrian approach would work in Ukraine, given that the whole point of US provocations in Ukraine *from the beginning* has been the destruction of the Russian state.
The benefit of running a proxy war is that you can escalate and escalate without formally declaring yourself a party to the war, and hence can expend only money and not blood. The US will expend money until it is bankrupt. That is how important it views its rules-based order. The danger is that it is only by drawing US blood that the US empire *might* be drawn back. But if Russia draws US blood then there is another danger: an all out nuclear war in which all parties are annihilated.
Right now we have a game of chicken between Russia and the US. Will Russia dare to draw US blood? What will the US do in response? I believe that, given the neocons in charge of US foreign policy, Russia WILL have to draw US blood to bring this conflict to an end. The danger is that this necessity brings with it the very real risk of the annhilation of the species.
Posted by: WJ | Sep 23 2022 14:30 utc | 88
Too bad if a troll doesn't want to be called a troll.
It's lear you are trolling for maximum effect. War always has forwards and reverses, and this is no different.
Two simple points must be kept in mind.
1. The main arm of the Russian forces is something called "General Winter" and that division has yet to put on its boots.
Wait until WInter finally arrives. Until then Russia is running out the calendar. because this is not about the Ukraine, but about removing NATO and the Nazis, which is a "big ticket" item that can't be won on the battlefields of the Ukraine alone.
2. Too much ink has been spilled over the partial mobilization but yet the main point has been invisible to everyone, for some odd reason, but here it is: The Kremlin needs to reassure the voters in Kherson and Zaparizhiya that Russia will not abandon them, and the withdrawal from Kharkhov Oblast won't happen again. That's a full explanation. Perhaps it's a shameful apology for the withdrawal and that's why no one talks about it. This also means there need not be any expectation of increased military activity, although when and if these regions vote to join Russia, they will need more troops to provide protection. So the partial mobilization is not a huge deal.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Sep 23 2022 14:31 utc | 89
rk, I had the exact same thought. Nobody is afraid of Russia's threats anymoreWho is the “nobody” you’re referring to? I guess you mean NATO? If you take your childish emotions out of it and apply reason, you will come to the right conclusions. If NATO (US) isn’t “afraid” as you put it, BTW that is an odd adjective to use for a nation state. States don’t become afraid, they simply look to defend their national interest and weigh the cost of defending said interest. If the U.S/ NATO thinks they can be directly involved in this war without paying a heavy cost, Biden would have given Putin an ultimatum in February and they would have been at war already. But Biden correctly calculated that getting the U.S involved will irrevocably damage U.S national interest, i.e Ukraine is too cost prohibitive for the U.S. Simllarly, to those that thinks Putin is weak for allowing the U.S to send weapons without illegally attacking NATO (for sending weapons that kill Russians), this is also another idiotic line of reasoning. Putin also (for obvious reasons) do not want to significantly damage Russia’s national interest for the sake of Ukraine. Unless, the U.S directly threatens the Russian state. So to say “no one is afraid of Russia” is utterly ridiculous. Just look at history, NATO’s involvement in Kosovo, first Iraqi war, Libyan war…… NATO got illegally involved in those wars because they know they can do it without any significant cost to their national interest.
I won’t bother quoting any of your other post because they are just as irrational, but I will address them. Insulting Martyanov and the Saker and saying they are wrong is baseless. Martyanov made an assessment that Russia doesn’t need to mobilize based on the facts on the ground at the time. As of that time, the Ukrops were defending and loosing ground (they’ve lost 20% of their territory). It is logical to come to Martyanov‘s conclusion. Obviously the situation on the ground changed, and the Ukrops began an offensive suicidal strategy to sacrifice their men en masse to gain lost ground, so in order for Russia to hold the ground they’ve gained (on a frontline that is 1.500 KM long) they need more troops. This partial mobilization doesn’t disprove Martyanov nor the saker. Only an emotional, irrational person would think otherwise. Shiogu’s reason for the mobilization was that the frontline was too long thus requires more men on ground.
Your point about Saker saying NATO is a paper tiger again is baseless. This war has actually buttressed if not proved Saker’s assertions right. Just think about it, by all accounts (from military experts, even western ones) Russia has refused to use its frontline troops in this war, she is fighting the Ukrops with a fraction of what she can bring to bear and yet, Ukraine’s army has lost all capabilities (don’t confuse their non-combat victory of taking back territories the Russians left, as proof of their capabilities). Ukraine is at a minimum a second rate military force before this war and in 6 months they’ve been reduced to what we see now. Compare that to the forces the U.S/ NATO has faced in the last 30 years. I think some of you western guys forget what the NATO war in Iraq was like, the U.S couldn’t hold ANY SIGNIFICANT TERRITORY in Iraq, all it did was create a green zone, and declared victory. Same in Afghanistan, for most of the 20 year war, the Taliban controlled most of the country. Only a fool wouldn’t appreciate the significance of Russia holding on to 20% of Ukraine, albeit they are holding regions where the people support them. I can keep refuting your ridiculous claims but I’ll stop here.
Posted by: AntiLogic | Sep 23 2022 14:33 utc | 90
Oh! The CIA/MI6/SBU/GRU trolls are out in full FORCE, or is it force de majeur (SIC), on purpose. The issue surrounding the steppes is indeed about the history over 5 centuries, but most people never studied history, especially related to the eurasian areas.
This is, after all, the area where the Mongols, under Genghis Khan, captured the "kings" of Europe. It is very interesting to read statements where there is no connection to history, but that this is "only" the issue of "UKRAINE". Until the USSR created this oblast, it never existed!
I like to read those posts by people who actually live within 500KM of this proxy war, I also have read the Bible, like a novel, prior to going to private school in Ontario where I had to learn about the history of civilization, of course, entirely within the "WESTERN" ideology, back when we were taught to hate "Communists". I still hate them, but they all seem to be now in our "WESTERN" governments.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle, again, I show my ignorance and naivety as I prefer the tome over politics...LMAO. Always been a "bookworm".
Posted by: Arcticman | Sep 23 2022 14:33 utc | 91
@ xeen | Sep 23 2022 14:14 utc | 84 who started off saying I know nothing of Christianity and then when I refuted that they went off topic..
How about if I ask how do you justify the current Christian approval of usury?
But I digress...sorry b...don't feed the trolls...
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 23 2022 14:34 utc | 92
This morning the euro is at $0.97. The pound sterling is $1.09. Only beginning. Correct rate for either is "we don't accept those."
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 23 2022 14:39 utc | 93
"Returning to your point, nope, there is no comeback of "Nazi-like hatred" for Russian (and IMHO, the Nazis did not hate Russia or the Soviet Union, but Communism)."
Wich part of the rants about how the slavs had a natural role in the Reich as slavelabour did you not catch? Mein Kampf is full of it, and the greater plans had a real extermination of slavic culture program prepared.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Sep 23 2022 14:40 utc | 94
I have said already, everyone here is interpreting the referenda and partial mobilization as a sign that "the gloves are off" and Russia is about to go balls-out. Given what we know about Russia's miracle red lines, which are never crossed even when they are, this is very unlikely. This is an attempt by Russia to totally shut down all further kinetic action by either side. The mobilization is some sort of theatre in support. Like someone who doesn't really want to fight any more calling out "Come at me bro!" to save face.Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Sep 23 2022 11:49 utc | 18
I don't think it is as bleak a situation as you are portraying it.
The fact is the Russians never threw even a fraction of their conventional power at Ukraine. And yes, that is a fact. It is literally thousands of cruise missiles fired at this point, very few of them went after military barracks (AFU could have been entirely annihilated in the morning of February 24th in their sleep, but that wasn't done), critical infrastructure (all the weapon transfer could have been shut down with a few strikes at the key nodes in the electric grid and the transport network; that wasn't done either), and, of course, the mythical "decision making centers" and the NATO intelligence and command centers in the country have not been touched at all.
It is hard to believe they would be significantly degrading their strike capability by exhausting their standoff weapon supply on repair shops and other not fully essential targets, leaving nothing for a massive truly decapitating attack if the need arises for that.
They also very much did send 50,000 professional troops to the Far East, with all the gear, for an exercise just when the Kharkov collapse was happening, which would likely not have happened had just 10,000 of those been there.
So there has to be a very large potential for conventional escalation even if the bombastic proclamations of the blowhard cheerleaders about the superpowers of the Russian army are largely hot air.
P.S. The key question about the mobilization is still where the hell the bulk of the standing army is. Again, there were the 50,000 troops on exercises. It is unlikely that those 50,000 were all that remained of the standing army that has not been deployed in Ukraine. So there has to be a significant force out there sitting idle. But then why mobilize so many people? One possible explanation, especially if the 300K is really a ruse and it's in fact more like 1M as rumored, is precisely the opposite of what you are suggesting - that they intend to in fact take over the bulk of Ukraine, for which they need a lot of people to control the territory, establish supply lines, etc. But again, this hinges on the answer to the question where the hell the standing army is. Because we largely haven't really seen it in action yet - it has been LDNR militias, Wagner and some Chechens doing most of the fighting with only a little bit of the regular Russian army in the south in full action, the rest of its activity has been artillery and air support.
P.P.S. If there is indeed a large trained conventional force sitting idle and kept in reserve that is actually very bad news for the world - it can only mean that the Russians are fully expecting a direct confrontation with NATO at some point. It would be really nice if someone could provide an accurate answer to that question, but these things are not discussed in the open for a reason...
Posted by: Tbx | Sep 23 2022 14:50 utc | 95
NATOstan immediately recognized the legitimacy of the Slovenian and Croatian independence votes sparking the War to Destroy Yugoslavia.
Posted by: Exile | Sep 23 2022 14:50 utc | 96
Last night local English-speaking reporter in Donetsk City reported that the election will take 5 days and not use polling stations due to intensity of attacks from the Ukie lines which are still in same places they were in February, about 3-5 miles away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xt4j5mZneFY&t=932s
Maybe this woman is wrong or things have already changed. But it appears from this and a September 19 report by Russell 'Texas' Bentley that the situation near the city is far more hairy than the news we have been getting had been indicating. Indeed, at the time he made the report he said that unless things changed in a matter of days that their line might crumple and they might over-run the most western neighbourhood with tens of thousands of Nazis who would then have tens of thousands of civilian human shields/residents making the invaders almost impossible to dislodge whilst also negating RF's advantages with air and artillery powers. Mariupol * 10 basically. He also said the Donbass patriots are losing faith in Russia, first for having to wait 8 years after being rejected earlier and now since the SMO with no relief and their having to bear the brunt of the casualties with the shank of the equipment. All is not well in that area!!
Texas report: https://rumble.com/v1kpqdh-russell-bentley-situation-in-donetsk-and-in-ukraine.html
@psychohistorian #67
Totally agree with your worldview as expressed on this blog over the last few years. But I want to pick you up on one thing. Traditional Christianity is not monotheistic. It recognises two more or less evenly matched supernatural beings, God and the Devil. The claim "There is only one God" is just another example of gaslighting, like "3=1" and "omnipotence is not logically incoherent".
Posted by: Tim | Sep 23 2022 14:55 utc | 98
Re: Posted by: xeen | Sep 23 2022 14:19 utc | 85
Zelensky is not an actor, he is an agent, of Kolmojski and his ilk. Slight but significant difference.
WAS.
The operative word is WAS.
Zelensky has been BOUGHT/STOLEN by the US/UK. Kolo has his Azov boys - why do you think Zelensky kept them defending to the bitter end in Azovstal? He wasn't the least bit worried if they were extinguished.
Posted by: Julian | Sep 23 2022 14:58 utc | 99
Posted by: Tbx | Sep 23 2022 14:50 utc | 98
I believe that Russians have gamed for the contingency of a direct confrontation with NATO in Europe from the beginning. They see, I believe, that the US desires to destroy Europe to wed it closer to itself, and wants to weaken the Russian state. The best way to do this is a war between Russia and NATO in Europe. This is the game-plan of the extreme neocons in the State Department.
Where I think the Russians erred--though hindsight is always 20/20--is in adopting a gradualist approach from the beginning. If Russia had taken out the majority of Ukrainian troops in late February; if they had taken out decision-making centers and power plants and electricity grids FROM THE BEGINNING, then there is a real possibility the conflict would already be over. (Of course, had they done this, there would have also been the possibility that the US/NATO would have already directly inserted itself into the war.)
My view is that the war won't end until the US backs down, and the US won't back down until it suffers losses.
Posted by: WJ | Sep 23 2022 14:59 utc | 100
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as much as Western countries like to talk about democracy, we very rarely have plebiscites here at least in leaf land anyways...
really makes a man think
Posted by: leaf | Sep 23 2022 10:22 utc | 1