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The text below, an outline of a peace agreement over Ukraine, was send to me by a west-European source that wants to stay anonymous. Its purpose is to begin a discussion about the content of such an agreement. As such it is starting point, not an end result.
I personally disagree with many of its clauses. With some for practical reasons, with others for the legal consequences they imply (III.1).
But one has to start somewhere if one wants to discuss how the war in Ukraine should or can end.
A Peace Russia Should Propose
By RationalPeacekeeper
Background:
Nobody knows where this is going to end. The only thing for sure is that the risk of nuclear Armageddon for humanity has increased dramatically. This is insane. At the moment, no party seems to be interested in ending the conflict peacefully. However minute the prospect of settling this conflict may be, and however illusory it might be perceived, it is worth discussing visionary plans on which reasonable people could agree on.
This is a Russian-friendly perspective. People brainwashed with western propaganda will have a hard time to digest it. The objective therefore is not to promote to dishonest catchwords such as “territorial integrity” or “defending our freedom” but to focus on what is best for people’s lives, based on humanitarian principles and readiness for reconciliation.
Such a peace will need international mediation. Since organizations such as the UN and OSCE are western-dominated, a balanced choice of countries has to be made which have kept a neutral status and no interest in continuing the war. Examples, not complete: Turkey, Portugal, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, India, China, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico. These will be called “peace countries” in the following. This is how a sketch of an agreement could look:
I. Military:
1. General ceasefire
2. Soldiers of peace countries are deployed to the front line after conflict parties’ guaranties.
3. Heavy weapons are retreated at a distance of 30 km from the frontline.
4. Irrespective of details, the overall objectives are transparency of the peace process and to hinder the outbreak of spontaneous hostilities.
5. Peace countries control the ceasefire agreement. Treason of individuals in favor of one of the conflict parties must be severely punished.
6. Conflict parties commit to reveal reconnaissance data when ceasefire violations occur.
II. Territory:
1. Since a referendum with clear outcome has taken place, Crimea remains Russian.
2. The Donbas Republics are recognized, but have to cede a part of their sovereignty to an international administration run by the peace countries. They must be demilitarized.
3. The oblasts Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are under sovereignty and administration of the peace countries for two years and become demilitarized.
4. After two years, a referendum is held to decide whether Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (each for their own) become independent or remain part of Ukraine. Independence implies the right to become part of the Russian federation later. The anonymous referendum is organized by the peace countries. A majority of 60 percent is required for the decision, otherwise the referendum has to be repeated. After the referendum, there is a transition period in which people are guaranteed a fair compensation for abandoned property.
5. The oblasts Cherniv, Sumy, Kharkov, Dnjepropetrowsk, Nikolaev and Odessa become demilitarized.
III. Politics:
1. Russia acknowledges the violation of international law in 2022, NATO and EU acknowledge their responsibility for the conflict since 2014.
2. Ukraine can politically become a NATO member, but no foreign troops and no missile systems can be deployed on its territory. Ukraine can become EU member.
3. Ukraine’s constitution must guarantee equal rights to all ethnicities. Russian must become an official language.
4. All political prisoners must be released, all parties prohibited since 2014 must be allowed, all media closed since 2014 must become legal again. All laws concerning “collaboration with occupants” must be abolished.
5. Extremism and promoting ethnic conflicts must be punished by law.
6. Ukraine must tolerate access and control of the above regulations by peace countries.
7. Arms control negotiations are resumed.
IV. Economics:
1. Russia pays a significant compensation for civilian casualties, such as 100.000 Euro for each documented victim, distributed over 5-10 years.
2. Russia pays for damaged civilian buildings and infrastructure an amount of 100 billion euros, distributed over 10 years.
Remark: this is not to disregard civilian casualties in Russia or Donbas, but a consequence of the economic realities.
3. NATO/EU and allied countries lift all sanctions against Russia. Russia commits to pre-war obligations.
V. Society:
1. Russia, Ukraine and NATO officially regret the casualties since 2014.
2. Amnesty in Ukraine and Russia for all non-violent criminal offenses regarding the conflict.
3. War crimes of individuals are brought to a court consisting of judges of peace countries. Conflict parties cede their right of prosecution and commit to collaborating in the investigations.
4. All restrictions on media are lifted in Russia, Ukraine and EU.
5. A joint internet mourning site is set up for all victims of the war, to document the horrors of war in the spirit of reconciliation.
6. A commission of historians and scientists working on all controversial events of the past decades, such as MH 17, Skripal, etc. (List not complete!) An annual conference is to held, with open access to anyone interested. All governments commit to disclose relevant information. The objective is to allow for dissenting opinions while following an evidence- based approach.
7. An international political discussion forum, similar to talk shows, with automatic translations and video streaming is established. All countries commit to send high-rank officials and guarantee access to journalists.
8. All parties commit to intercultural dialogue. All travel restrictions are lifted, electronic visas for tourists should be issued on short notice.
9. A permanent commission involving peace countries can propose amendments to this treaty.
To be signed by: Russia, Ukraine, all NATO members, EU members, peace countries.
To reiterate: Given the state of western governments, I have no illusions that they are even faintly interested in implementing such a plan. Public discussion about a peaceful solution must start however.