Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 24, 2022

Ukraine - Wrong Assumptions, Wrong Conclusions - And A Lot Of Dead Soldiers

As the war in Ukraine passes the half year mark lots of media produce their conclusions about the beginning of the war. But when looked at in detail these are most superficial write ups of what people assume Russia's plans at the start of the war were and how those assumed plans fit with the presumed reality.

The Washington Post has a long 'exclusive' piece headlined:

Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital

It first describes the immediate start of the war and then states a false assumption:

The question everyone faced at that moment, [Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis] Monastyrsky said, was: “How far can the enemy go with that enormous fist?”

If the Russians could seize the seat of power in Ukraine, or at least cause the government to flee in panic, the defense of the country would quickly unravel. Moscow could install a puppet government.

That was the Kremlin’s plan.

I don't know why the authors think they know what the Kremlin's plan was. I am certain that the described one is not what Russia intended to strive for.

A piece in Newsweek makes similar assertions:

How Putin Botched the Ukraine War and Put Russia's Military Might at Risk

Ukrainian defenders have indeed been ferociously determined, while Russian troops have had to contend with bad battlefield leaders, inferior weapons and an unworkable supply chain. They've also been hobbled by Putin himself. He misread the world situation and personally ordered a disastrous invasion, looking to overthrow the government in Kyiv. He directed a botched effort to take Donbas, depleting the Russian armed forces in the process.
...
"Putin, like every other dictator we've known in the modern era, thinks he knows better, more than his own military, and more than any experts," one senior intelligence official who works on Russia (and requested anonymity to speak frankly) tells Newsweek.
...
The February invasion was designed to overthrow Volodymyr Zelensky and take over the entire country, and Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus to Ukraine's north, threatening Kyiv.

Given Russia's overwhelming numerical superiority, Putin expected the government in Kyiv to fall in as little as 72 hours.

There is no evidence that any of those assertions are true.

At the beginning of the year Russia faced a problem. In the larger picture it had to prevent Ukraine's admission to NATO. Negotiations with the U.S. had failed to achieve that. In the immediate situation Russia also had to prevent an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Donbas republics.

There were several potential ways to achieve that each of which came with a different time lines and price point.

At the beginning of war Putin made one remark to the Ukrainian military command to give up, to make the necessary concessions, and to remove the civil government should it not agree with them. But during the first days of the war it became immediate clear that the Ukrainian military command did not want, or did not dare to do that. This military coup would have been the cheapest and fastest solution for both, Russia and Ukraine.

A second option was to press the Ukrainian government into agreeing to Russia conditions to end the war. To remove the Ukrainian army from the Donbas, to accept Crimea as part of Russia and to repudiate any NATO association plans.

The move of Russian forces to around Kiev was designed to achieve that. It nearly reached that aim during talks held at the end of March in Turkey. As soon as the Ukraine seemed to agree to the Kremlin's conditions, and to a potential summit, Russia ordered its troops to move back from the city.

On March 29 France24 summarized its daily report collection with this:

Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status and a 15-year consultation period on the future of Russian-occupied Crimea as long as a complete ceasefire with Russian forces is agreed, negotiators said at the conclusion of peace talks in Istanbul on Tuesday. Despite Russian vows to "radically" reduce military operations near Kyiv and Chernigiv, Western officials urged caution.

The Kremlin's hope for a fast end of the conflict was disappointed when, a few days later, Zelensky suddenly refuted all the concessions his negotiators in Istanbul had made.

This followed a phone call between the British prime minister Boris Johnson and Zelensky on April 2 and Johnson's visit to Kiev on April 9.

A report in the Ukrainian Pravda describe what happened (machine translation):

After the arrival of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Kyiv, a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin has become less likely.
...
[T]wo things happened, after which a member of the Ukrainian delegation, Mikhail Podolyak, had to openly admit that the meeting of the presidents was "out of time."

The first is the exposure of atrocities, rapes, murders, massacres, robbery, indiscriminate bombing, hundreds and thousands of other war crimes committed by Russian troops in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories…

The second obstacle to agreements with the Russians arrived in Kyiv on April 9."

Details: According to UP sources close to Zelensky, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.

The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he needs to be squeezed, and not negotiated with him.

And secondly, if Ukraine is ready to sign any agreements on guarantees with him, then they are not.

This position of Johnson testified: the collective West, which back in February offered Zelensky to surrender and run away, now felt that Putin was actually not at all as omnipotent as he was imagined, and that right now there was a chance to squeeze him.

Three days after Johnson left for the UK, Putin went public and said talks with Ukraine "have reached an impasse."

The 'west', in form of Joe Biden's messenger Boris Johnson, told Zelensky - first in a phone call and then in person - that he would be on his own if he should sign a ceasefire agreement that made any concessions to Russia.

Russia's initiative to achieve fast concessions, and its motive to keep troops around Kiev, had failed because the 'west' did not agree to it. It wanted a long war to drag Russia down.

Zelensky accepted the 'western' pressure for a war 'down to the last Ukrainian' and ended the negotiations by making new demands that Russia could never accept.

Since then Russia removed its troops from the vicinity of the big cities Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Karkiv. This to drag the Ukrainian troops away from the civilians in the cities into the countryside and to exposed them to the massive artillery strikes the Russians use along the frontlines.

There the Ukrainian troops get 'demilitarized' and 'denazified' just as Putin had ordered.

Anyone who says that Russia is 'too slow' and 'does not make progress' along the frontline misunderstands this situation. Russia is deliberately dragging the Ukrainian forces towards the rural frontline to destroy them there without creating massive civil casualties:

The Russian army deliberately slowed down its advance in the special military operation in Ukraine in order to reduce civilian casualties, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said at a meeting of defense chiefs from Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states on Wednesday.

"We strictly comply with humanitarian law during the special operation. Attacks are carried out with high-precision weapons on the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ military infrastructure facilities, including command points, airfields, depots, fortified areas and defense industry sites. At the same time, every effort is being done to prevent civilian casualties. It certainly slows down the advance but we do it consciously," Shoigu pointed out.

If the following document is really original this approach seems to be quite successful.


bigger

Up to July 1, according to the document, the losses of the Ukrainian military were:

  • 76,640 dead
  • 42,704 wounded or shell shocked
  •  7,244 captured
  •  2,816 missing
  •  1,610 non-combat casualties (suicides?)

The total numbers look realistic to me. The number of dead is higher then my estimate but the number of wounded seems to be low in relation to the dead.

There may be several reasons for that. The evacuation of wounded soldiers from positions under artillery fire is extremely difficult and Ukraine's military medical service is not exactly up to date. There are no helicopter evacuations and no tracked medical transport vehicles that could take the wounded out.

A lot of wounded will thereby miss the 'golden hour' and simply die before they can be brought into effective medical care. We can also assume that the Ukrainian staff only counts the heavily wounded and that people who get patched up and send back to the front line are likely not included here.

July 1 was in the 17th week of the war and the total number of likely dead on the above list is 81,066. That makes for an average kill rate of 4.767 per week or 681 Ukrainian soldiers per day. As the first weeks of the war were not exceptionally bloody the number of current dead per day is likely higher.

Nine weeks have passed since the reference date of the above report. They have likely added another 42,000 dead to the list.

These numbers are consistent with the Russian military's daily 'clobber list' which reports of several hundreds Ukrainian casualties per day due to air strikes and well target artillery.

A recent New York Times piece about the costs of war also gives some numbers:

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the top commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Monday that about 9,000 Ukrainians had been killed at the front.
...
[T]his month, Pentagon officials estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Russians had been killed or wounded; they put the number of deaths at 20,000.

Those numbers are simply not believable.

Here, from the same piece, is why:

Analysts estimate that Russia is firing around 10,000 artillery shells a day, down from a peak of as much as 20,000 during the campaign to take Luhansk, and that Ukraine is firing several thousand artillery rounds a month.

10 to 20 thousand rounds per day(!) means some 450,000 rounds per month fired from the Russian side. The Ukrainian counter fire is down to 'several thousand artillery rounds a month'. That is ratio of 100 to 1.

How the heck is that supposed to result in only 9,000 killed Ukrainians and 80,000 Russian casualties? It simply can't.

The deliberately slow advance Shoigu describes is achieving the war aim of 'demilitarizing' the Ukraine while Russia's army takes a minimum of casualties.

Most of the experienced younger officers, captains and majors and the senior sergeants that were the backbone of the Ukrainian army will by now be dead. Together with the high material losses and high troop casualties the Ukrainian army has taken this will make it less and less capable of any organized maneuver or resistance.

All that is left is Ukrainian cannon fodder which Russian artillery eats up with enormous ferocity.

It is sad that it has come to this.

Posted by b on August 24, 2022 at 17:58 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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"This is a strange line of argument to take. It implies that Putin is a mere puppet"

Not at all. That's like saying a man who's punched in the face is a puppet for responding.

"Do thou oppose that man with all thy might,
Who, unprovoked, provokes thee to a fight"

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 24 2022 22:02 utc | 101

YetAnotherAnon | Aug 24 2022 22:02 utc | 102

There once was a lady from Venus
Whose face was shaped like...

Posted by: Cortello Mxx | Aug 24 2022 22:05 utc | 102

Also, a reminder, that "Mirotvorets" killist, while seems to be filled by Ukrainian police, if itself the NATO outlet, not Ukrainian

https://t.me/Reality_Theories/8275?single

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 24 2022 22:12 utc | 103

Dima went full spook at the end of today's summary.....weird shit regardless.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2022 21:50 utc | 94

Reports of air raid sirens all over western Ukraine today. Maybe this was a testing and spotting of AD by RF forces for a bigger followup in the coming days. As Dima would say, "We will see".

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Aug 24 2022 22:30 utc | 104

Great article and insightful responses. Just read in TASS that Ze is going to put a Resolution to the UN General Assembly that Russia should be held to account for its aggressive actions in Ukraine. Methinks he is desperately worried about the upcoming War Crimes Trials. Can't wait to see the evidence from the POWs. It must be really damning.

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Aug 24 2022 22:35 utc | 105

How do you know about the Russian strategy? You are not even a Russian.
rp

How do I know that rp is nought but a computer generated posting???

I know.... because..... only a person with vacuum between his ears would make the above statement....

LT Oprisko (USCGR-R)

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 24 2022 22:36 utc | 106

Posted by: Cortello Mxx | Aug 24 2022 22:05 utc | 103

There once was a lady from Venus
Whose face was shaped like...

They weren't real tits
she called herself Fritz
And sported two balls and a ...

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Aug 24 2022 22:37 utc | 107

Serbian sniper Beric says captured Ukraine gov documents show casualties of 191k about 3 weeks ago. So above 200k. Insane up until last Ukrainian

Posted by: Serbian | Aug 24 2022 22:42 utc | 108

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 24 2022 19:48 utc | 49

Thanks! I think I was sort of saying that, but you said it better ;)

Posted by: juliania | Aug 24 2022 22:44 utc | 109

How many Ukrainians does it take to change a lightbulb?

None. They just shell the electrical plant and get the UN to do it.

Posted by: Scratchi | Aug 24 2022 22:45 utc | 110

How many Ukrainians does it take to change a lightbulb?
Posted by: Scratchi | Aug 24 2022 22:45 utc | 111

400,001

One to hold the lightbulb still, and 400,000 to spin the country round.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Aug 24 2022 22:48 utc | 111

Graham Phillips have found some of the missing soldiers - the sanitized version : https://youtu.be/-Ih5o9A49ug
- 18++ version https://rumble.com/v1h1ga5-donbass-extreme-swinery-en-route-to-the-winery-special-reportage-part-22.html

Posted by: Anne B | Aug 24 2022 22:49 utc | 112

@ bevin #51

This is the best description of what's going on, bevin! In fact, it is so good, it deserves being published as a separate article / post. If you have your own blog, please share, I will gladly add it to my shortlist of blogs to read on a regular basis.

thank you for your post!

Posted by: RockTime | Aug 24 2022 22:50 utc | 113

Gt Stroller@105...I read a few days ago that on the Ukie side of the LOC if you are injured and cannot make the two mile trip to the rear by yourself you are likely not leaving the front alive. When Dima related the story of his friends injured stepbrother at the front. Didn't want his body left there. Wanted something for his mom to bury. Ukie KIA #s will be staggering when this is over.
Regardless of what happens when the RF SC meets tomorrow, the attack on the office when a Russian parliamentarian was scheduled to visit.....Ukrainian officials might want to get out now.

Cheers

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2022 22:51 utc | 114

I will be happy to supply you with a hamburger if you pay me on Tuesday, only the hamburger will take between one and three years to arrive.

Posted by: Oh | Aug 24 2022 22:53 utc | 115

The western media coverage of this is simply astounding. But as we can see even in b’s comment section, it works on a lot of people. All of the western analysis is based on what the US would do if it was Russia, which Russia didn’t do. Since the US is the best country ever, Russia must be stupid. Simple as that. The western press also conflates all the allied forces as Russian. Why’s it going so slow? Most of the infantry fighting is being done by Donbas militias and national guard volunteers. It’s the same reason there are so much old Russian equipment in use: it has been given to groups outside the Russian army, strictly speaking.

It hasn’t all gone according to plan. No war ever has. And I’m sure that Russia would prefer it quicker, though not at the expense of leaving large numbers of Ukrainian troops and equipment in the field to capture Kiev. That way leads to an Iraqi type resistance. But what it has learned along the way is what @bevin gets to. This operation at this speed is destroying the old world order. It shouldn’t. There’s no reason for it except the rank incompetence and fealty to ideology that infects western leadership.

At this point Russia knows it has new markets for oil and gas. It knows that most of the world is neutral or on its side. And every day the US fucks up in a new way. In a few weeks OPEC is likely to cut production. The Saudis are all in on twisting the knife in Biden’s gut. I would not have predicted that a longer conflict would benefit Russia economically or politically, survivable yes but not benefit. I would have also predicted that someone in DC was a grown up and would stop the US from throwing itself on the fire it started. I was wrong. And it isn’t a sense of loyalty. The NYT tomorrow could talk about Nazis, corruption and whatever else. Americans would turn on or forget Ukraine in a week. Biden’s riding this one all the way to the bottom.

Posted by: Lex | Aug 24 2022 22:53 utc | 116

And all will make clear what no amount of MSM propaganda can obscure that the governments of the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine are fascists of the worst kind, because unlike their predecessors of the thirties they cannot even claim to be patriotic or nationalistic, being merely limp tools in the hands of the lunatics running the Empire.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 24 2022 19:51 utc | 51

Superbly written post. Thank you.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 24 2022 22:54 utc | 117

How many Ukrainians does it take to change a lightbulb?
Posted by: Scratchi | Aug 24 2022 22:45 utc | 111

That depends on what they try to change it into.

Posted by: Amosis | Aug 24 2022 22:54 utc | 118

@oldhippie | Aug 24 2022 21:40 utc | 89

Supposedly the Zapo NPP is being shelled from Nikopol. Which is a mere 15km away and not that large. Any variety of barrel or tube atillery has a great big infrared signature.
Artillery uses to change positions after a while, especially when counter battery fire arrives. And you seem to believe that the guns fire just from the shore. In fact a Msta-B has a firing range of 28km, a M777 of 30-40km, even without enhanced ammonition. Same goes for MRLS and SAU which are even more mobile. The purpose is that they do not get too easily hit. The Russian forces take out not few of them though.

And Donezk was and is not shelled from Avdeyevka only but also from all other villages and strongholds of the fortified UFA positions. Only when those positions are taken, shelling will subside. The Svinoreich obviously chose terror as they cannot achieve success on the battlefield.

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 24 2022 22:56 utc | 119

«That makes for an average kill rate of 4.767 per week or 681 Ukrainian soldiers per day.»

Those numbers are simply wrong. Not even the Russian MoD daily reports have such an average. Only half of that. And that's obviously higher than the true number.

Considering the lack of accuracy of Russian artillery (as we can all see in the videos of intelSlava's telegram), the number of injured has to be higher than the number of dead.

When Russia says they have "fire control" in cauldrons, we still see videos of Ukrainians fleeing in civilians cars, or by foot, and most of Russian artillery and guns can't hit them.

When we see drone attacks, it's just a grenade, that doesn't even hit the right spot, there's maybe one seriously injured in a group of 3. And that's all.

In Kherson there's talk of 35 BTG to stop the Ukrainians counter-offensive. Result, Russia got ONE small village. HIMARS are still hitting the Nova Kahkova dam and the bridge in Kherson. It seems that destroyed bridge was a great achievement for Ukraine. One floating small pontoon is not the same as a bridge in such a wide river...

In the Donbass Eastern front, the reports are now a "progress" of half a street by day. If Russia was, as 'b' says, out of towns to kill in the open, they wouldn't be inside towns advancing half a street every day.

And why has Russian artillery reduced by half from the maximum of 20k per day? Is that the HIMARS result? Depots need to be more far away from the front, supply lines don't work so well that way, more depots are destroyed. Why would voluntarily Russia decrease artillery rounds by half?

Then there's Kharkov front. Russia got Udy near its border and... nothing else. What was that for? A ghost village in the grey zone is not even an "advance".

Finally, why is the MoD's only reference to dead Russians that magical number: 1351 - from phase 1? If the meat grinder is so good and Russian casualties are so low, why spend so many months without updating that number? Don't Russian mothers and wives and daughters deserve to know the cost of the "slow strategy"?

Then there's discrepancies. In two days Russia didn't destroy more than 1 Ukrainians MLRS. Then in the next 2 days they claim to have destroyed 19? It's too incoherent, taking in consideration that analyst keep talking about a slow continuous pace and same tactics every day.

And the images from HIMARS alleged destruction, with such low resolution that we can't even say what we're looking at. Is it a HIMARS? Is it a water tank? Is it Super Kremlin Man? How knows...

And today's new aid package from USA has these numbers: 245 thousand artillery shells of 155 mm caliber, 65 thousand shells of 120 mm caliber. That's 310k for this months. If Ukraine uses 10k per day, that's enough to equal Russian current artillery rate during the entire month.

And then the constant successful Ukrainian shelling in central Donetsk. Considering Russia is there to help Donetsk people and supposedly has one of the best defense systems in the world, why is this still happening?

I tell you why: because Russian defense systems are not that good, and because Ukrainians near Pesky can keep a "fortified bunker" (actually a not completed common bridge) and after 6 months of shelling, that Ukrainian position is still there, manned, stopping Russian advance, keeping Russian from the ability to push Ukrainian artillery away from the civilian center of the city of Donetsk.

23rd-August: "we captured 75% of Mar'inka"
24th-August: "we captured 75%, and half a street, of Mar'inka"
25th-August: "we're again at 74% of Mar'inka, because they are getting KIA and we're advancing backwards to save lives..."
This is a joke.

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 24 2022 22:58 utc | 120

How many Ukrainians does it take to change a lightbulb?
Posted by: Scratchi | Aug 24 2022 22:45 utc | 111

Two. One to promise a brighter future and one to screw it up.

Posted by: Jenn R. | Aug 24 2022 23:01 utc | 121

Regardless of what happens when the RF SC meets tomorrow, the attack on the office when a Russian parliamentarian was scheduled to visit.....Ukrainian officials might want to get out now.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2022 22:51 utc | 115

Exactly. Disappearing individual terrorists don't have much of a footprint to aim at.
States that engage in targeted terrorist acts however...

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Aug 24 2022 23:04 utc | 122

@121 so as a general, you would order full frontal assaults for big arrow pushes? result, huge casualties. There is no rush. General winter approaches. The big us package will take between one and three years to arrive.

Posted by: Oh | Aug 24 2022 23:05 utc | 123

Carlos Marques @121

Since you are one of those trollwoda-class posters, would you mind responding to my thought experiment above @86? That is, assuming you possess the capacity for thought, which we all know many trolls lack.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2022 23:08 utc | 124

Carlos Marques@121

So do you think capturing the Donbas is the Russian's number one goal? Or is it possible that capturing, holding and incorporating the entire Black Sea coastline is their number one goal?

Posted by: Amosis | Aug 24 2022 23:09 utc | 125

To paraphrase: The Russian war machine is so catastrophically bad the Ukies don't even need the "miĺlion men" to make it collapse. And Mariupol was a hoax. So are all these other cities. And even if they weren't, they have been too small to count. Nikolayev and Odessa won't count either once the Russians get there.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Aug 24 2022 23:15 utc | 126

Demilitarization and denazification of the Ukraine are Russia’s chief goals.

Are they succeeding or failing?

Judging by the Ukraine’s acts of desperation and constant begging for weapons, I think it is obvious that Russia is achieving its goals. Indeed, the demilitarization is extending to all of NATO. What more could the Russians ask for?

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2022 23:16 utc | 127

At least the UK government has come out finally with an honest statement on current affairs. https://youtu.be/qyt3Op2dTc0

Posted by: Oh | Aug 24 2022 23:19 utc | 128

@Carlos

Stopping shelling is not really something that can be done. They have all Nato's gear and training they had by far the largest army in Europe and they are getting destroyed even tho they heavily outnumber the Russians and have a massive bunker system.
Nato will need to overhaul and train way different moving forward.
You are seeing a numbers game that Nato fully did not expect or plan for. 1/5 the expected Russian troops are being used and the number of losses are probably at 25% of "the plan"
It's a clinic in modern warfare

Posted by: OohCanada | Aug 24 2022 23:21 utc | 129

K @ 87:

Boris Johnson renounced his US citizenship in 2017 because after selling his home in London, he was hit with a capital gains tax bill by the US Internal Revenue Service. Even though he left New York as a child and has lived in the UK since, as a US citizen he still had to pay the tax bill so after loudly and publicly protesting the IRS action, he quietly paid the bill.

Boris Johnson's paternal great-grandfather was Ali Kemal (died 1922), a journalist / diplomat for the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century. Johnson still has cousins in Turkey who assisted him and the BBC in finding out how and why Ali Kemal ended up being brutally murdered. One of his great-grandfathers on his mother's side was Elias Avery Lowe, who was from a Lithuanian Jewish family that emigrated to the US.

Posted by: Jen | Aug 24 2022 23:24 utc | 130

The five turbines from Gazprom are being sent by Canada to Germany to join their lone companion from the previous repair gig. Will Russia stick with the sanctions rationale or will they come up with something creative? Maybe related to tomorrow's Duma statement?

Posted by: Carmin | Aug 24 2022 23:36 utc | 131

Relax folks, Mr B @ 92 is right when he says "Ukraine is shaping the war and Russia is responding to that reality". It's just that there is a more succinct way of expressing his rather abstract description of the current SMO.

It's called Whack-a-Mole. Russia plays that game too well!

Posted by: Jen | Aug 24 2022 23:42 utc | 132

Correction to Jen's post 131.
The URL is https://www.bbc.co.uk/whodoyouthinkyouare/past-stories/boris-how-we-did-it_1.shtml

With Macron's speech to his people, that times will be tough this winter and that they are digging in their heels to support Ukraine and face up to Russia bodes ill. Europe is being hit with incredibly high energy prices, while Russia appears to be slowly gaining ground. What is the planned endgame? Is it simply posturing, in the hope that Russia backs down? That look unlikely.

At the same time, the hardship many Europeans and people around the World will face over the coming year look immense. Not just from the energy situation which is fundamental to the economy but also food prices. As Europe, China and other places experience record heat waves and drought. Rising interest rates, after the disruption of supply chains, due to the pandemic, is bringing on a deeper recession and will bankrupt many poor countries.

What are the West's plans? Is it to bring on a deep recession to crash energy prices and squeeze Russia? Along with everyone else. Assassinate Putin? Pure idiocy, where they think Russia will fold?

Plus heightening the tensions between the West, China and Taiwan. It just looks crazy. Totally crazy.

Good thing alcohol exists.

Posted by: Mighty Drunken | Aug 24 2022 23:52 utc | 133

aquadraht @ 120

I am aware of all that. The RF has more and better counter battery resources than have ever previously existed. The whole point of counter battery is to work fast. This is all short range, the shells are not in the air that long. There is a limit to how fast the most mobile self-propelled arty can get up and move.

The number of personnel still alive who know how to operate these systems has to be small. Assume NATO rotates crews in and out. Vulnerabilities are everywhere. It makes no sense.

Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 24 2022 23:53 utc | 134

RockTime@114 and Scorpion: thank you for your generosity.

Carmin@132
After stuxnet, an earlier Siemens triumph, it would be ridiculous for any customer in Gazprom's position not to insist on the strictest adherence, by the contractor, to protocols. The Canadian connection adds nothing to Russian confidence that it is being treated on a commercial basis.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 24 2022 23:55 utc | 135

more great commentary.. unimperator, william gruff, bevin, uncle t, dr. george..., jen, summary and etc. etc.. thanks everyone...

@ YetAnotherAnon | Aug 24 2022 21:41 utc | 91

re the train station attack - maybe you can see this..
https://t.me/loordofwar/37964

The result of a missile attack on the Chaplino railway station in the Dnepropetrovsk region

Posted by: james | Aug 25 2022 0:04 utc | 136

despite members of the 101st chairborne here in the peanut gallery calling it a "fantasy" i'd lean more toward the feint theory regarding kiev. i doubt the russians were naive enough to think the banderaites would agree to de-nazifying and such they spent the previous 8 years being as naziriffic as they could be. but who knows...maybe there were promising talks that got scuttled by the US/UK. maybe future russian historians will have some interesting hindsight.

way to set a new record for sarcasm quotes around the west. i guess you know something about the idea that centuries of thinkers from herodotus to spengler don't?

Posted by: the pair | Aug 25 2022 0:04 utc | 137

@bevin, 136

Oh I agree, but you can tell the Russians are having fun with it and won't give up the pretence until the time is right. Not sure we're there yet.

Posted by: Carmin | Aug 25 2022 0:04 utc | 138

Gilbert: ‘I would invest in a map if i were you. The Russians are not headed south, they are headed north. You know, into the Ukraine?'

I’m happy with my current map, but thanks for the free advice. As for northward moves by the Russian army, not much happening there. But to the south:

‘Russia is moving large numbers of troops to Ukraine’s south for battles against the country’s forces through the newly occupied territories and Crimea, according to Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence.’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/31/ukrainian-offensive-forces-russia-to-bolster-troops-in-occupied-south

That was a month ago. Now:

‘Two additional battalion-tactical groups of Russian occupying forces have been deployed on the southern fronts.’

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-receive-reinforcements-southern-155943885.html

So still moving south. It could be argued that the southwards movement relates to reinforcements, and indeed it does. But the need for reinforcements also points to a Russian response to Ukraine’s counteroffensive towards Kherson, which of course is in the south of the country.

Posted by: MrB | Aug 25 2022 0:05 utc | 139

the pair | Aug 25 2022 0:04 utc | 140

101st chairborne. Gold!

Posted by: Margot S | Aug 25 2022 0:05 utc | 140

Carlos Marques @ 121

I was talking to an Iraq vet today. The US ran a round the clock bombing campaign. B-52's on down. After all the anti air was torn up then came the Warthogs, the Apaches, and the Cobras along with round after round of guided munitions from the Air force. After the armor and emplacements were torn up then came the troops. By that time the average Iraqi soldier had enough, he was done and completely exhausted. That was his experience.

Of course, we know about the armed resistance that followed minus all the heavy equipment which was destroyed. In this engagement we have nothing of the sort. We have artillery duals, some precision rocket strikes, and some use of aviation and air but nothing like an American style operation.

That being said the amount of force applied by the Russians is much smaller that what the US would go in with and mostly appears to be artillery on the front and precision rocket strikes on the rear. American casualties were most probably far lower than current Russian casualties.

So it is bound to take long to achieve goals but in time the goals will be achieved with a different outcome than we all expect. Eventually the Ukrainian armed forces will be worn down and nothing NATO throws in will help. The Donbass arc will collapse eventually and if they want Odessa that will happen in a few years.

And I do expect small armed resistance to continue indefinitely after the Russian goals are achieved. I would also expect some missile strikes from whatever is left of Ukraine. Russian plans to create a large buffer zone to preclude that but I see NATO pushing more longer range stuff in even in that outcome.

So yes, it is a great deal of bullshit pushed by amateurs like us becasue real information is just not to be found in the main media outlets. In fact, it is so farcical it is insulting.

Posted by: circumspect | Aug 25 2022 0:13 utc | 141

Posted by: MrB | Aug 25 2022 0:05 utc | 142


If you are getting your information from The Guardian and Yahoo.com, you don't need a map, an age 5 coloring book and a box of crayons will suit you quite well.

Posted by: Guernica | Aug 25 2022 0:14 utc | 142

After stuxnet, an earlier Siemens triumph, it would be ridiculous for any customer in Gazprom's position not to insist on the strictest adherence, by the contractor, to protocols. The Canadian connection adds nothing to Russian confidence that it is being treated on a commercial basis.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 24 2022 23:55 utc | 136

The endgame here for Russia/Gazprom is the approval of Nordstream 2. The brain trust in Ottawa and Montreal have possibly taken their Russophobic blinkers off long enough to realize that turbine contract delay and/or sabotage will only mean that Germany will have no choice but to approve Nordstream 2 this fall. Except for the obligatory political hot air, I expect no further games in Canada.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 25 2022 0:16 utc | 143

Posted by: james | Aug 24 2022 18:16 utc | 5

i agree with your conclusion that the Ukraine war is endangering the financial capitalist
world and that people like BoJo and the agitators for war on Russia will be severely punished. In the long run they have nothing to be happy about. The "climbing down" from the propaganda and lies will be hard for them. They will not be able to say - like many Germans said after the WW2 - "we did not know" , "if I had known..." etc. the media especially will have to eat a lot of crows.

Posted by: fanto | Aug 25 2022 0:17 utc | 144

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 24 2022 19:48 utc | 49

That is one of the best descriptions of the SMO I have read!

William Schryver? The name sounds familiar but I am drawing a blank. Anyway, he knows what he is talking about.

In retrospect, it is obvious Kiev was never the goal, but a feint and fix operation has to have the appearance of a real offensive to be effective.

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 25 2022 0:26 utc | 145

@76 guernica

If not the threat from true-believing Azov, then it is most likely the propaganda that is making them stay in their trenches to fight.

If not that either, then we have to give them credit for staying next to their brother while in the grinder.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 25 2022 0:31 utc | 146


If true this represents a serious escalation, albeit by profoundly un-serious people:
"CIA expert Douglas Valentine, author of the seminal book The Phoenix Program (1990), believes that the CIA was behind the car bomb that killed Darya Dugin,..
"...Just days before Dugina’s assassination, The New York Times published a front-page article about Ukrainian guerrilla fighters, or partisans, who openly admitted to planting car bombs targeting pro-Russian police officers and politicians behind Russian lines.

"Ukraine’s Special Services (SBU) is also known to have set up a Phoenix-style kidnapping and assassination program targeting dissidents, including mayors and local government officials considered sympathetic to Russia..."
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/08/24/cia-expert-believes-cia-behind-car-bomb-assassination-of-daughter-of-alexander-dugin/

Agreeing, sort of is Pepe Escobar whose latest is at The Cradle
"Six months after the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) by Russia in Ukraine, the geopolitical tectonic plates of the 21st century have been dislocated at astonishing speed and depth – with immense historical repercussions already at hand....

"...One Ilya Ponomaryov, an anti-Kremlin minor character granted Ukrainian citizenship, boasted he was in contact with the outfit that prepared the hit on the Dugin family. No one took him seriously.

"What is manifestly serious, however, is how oligarchy-connected organized crime factions in Russia would have a motive to eliminate Alexander Dugin, the Christian Orthodox nationalist philosopher who, according to them, may have influenced the Kremlin’s pivot to Asia (he didn’t).

"These organized crime factions blamed Dugin for a concerted Kremlin offensive against the disproportional power of Jewish oligarchs in Russia. So these actors would have both the motive and the local know-how to mount such a coup.

"If that’s the case, it potentially spells out a Mossad-linked operation – especially given the serious schism in Moscow’s recent relations with Tel Aviv. What’s certain is that the FSB will keep their cards very close to their chest – and retribution will be swift, precise and invisible.

"Instead of delivering a serious blow to Russia’s psyche that could impact the dynamics of its operations in Ukraine, the assassination of Darya Dugina only exposed the perpetrators as tawdry killers who have exhausted their options..."
https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/14747

Posted by: bevin | Aug 25 2022 0:36 utc | 147

Western reporting:
Meanwhile on another front the German Nazi Department of Truthiness reports Fatherland forces continue to defeat American and Russian forces outside of Berlin center.New weapons are being delivered daily now and The Fuhrer says the retaking of France is certain by winter

Posted by: Mike D. | Aug 25 2022 0:37 utc | 148

@ 85 susan mullen

Nice portrayal of the Kagan Klan Krime Syndicate. The Clinton's compared are Sunday schoolteachers.

Posted by: WTFUD | Aug 25 2022 0:38 utc | 149

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 24 2022 22:58 utc | 121

. . . Russian defense systems are not that good, and because Ukrainians near Pesky can keep a "fortified bunker" (actually a not completed common bridge) and after 6 months of shelling, that Ukrainian position is still there, manned, stopping Russian advance, keeping Russian from the ability to push Ukrainian artillery away from the civilian center of the city of Donetsk.

https://t.me/intelslava/35921

The above URL links to a short video which shows the UAF trench system in Pesky. You can count the number of dead in this "fortified bunker." I prefer to leave this task to you. Let us know what you find.

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 25 2022 0:41 utc | 150

Another report put the AFU casualties to 191,000 (mia and kia). When they look for men at the beach or on the streets or in night clubs, it means that the attrition on the front is very high. From October, women will be sent to the military. Even Hitler did not do it. Will they be sent on the front lines?

Kraken killed one hundred servicemen who wanted to surrender. And so on.

Once Donetsk will be liberated, without bunkers, the AFU will be obliged to hide in the cities. All the so-called counter-offensives are butcheries.

Posted by: Olivier | Aug 25 2022 0:42 utc | 151

"1,610 non-combat casualties (suicides?)"
Dima on the Military Summary had a story today from one of his Ukrainian friends.
The person was wounded in Donbas and was asking how to go home or be transferred somewhere else.
He was told that as soon as he was "healed" he would be send back to the front.
He said that he would rather kill himself at the hospital than go back.
The reason he gave was that at least his parents would have his body to bury.


https://youtu.be/BU8nXCJoPFM

Posted by: Urick_Z | Aug 25 2022 0:47 utc | 152

But the need for reinforcements also points to a Russian response to Ukraine’s counteroffensive towards Kherson, which of course is in the south of the country.

Posted by: MrB | Aug 25 2022 0:05 utc | 142

Which counter-offensive? You read too much the msm. There is no counter-offensive. Rien, nichts, nothing, nada, nichego... Pure propaganda. And you fell for it.

By the way the RF Army is approaching Nikolaev. Offensive from Kherson.

Posted by: Olivier | Aug 25 2022 0:51 utc | 153

MrB@142

It could be argued that the southwards movement relates to reinforcements, and indeed it does. But the need for reinforcements also points to a Russian response to Ukraine’s counteroffensive towards Kherson, which of course is in the south of the country.

It could be argued that the Germans won the second world war, but making an argument is not the same as accurately reporting reality. The "Kherson counter-offensive" is a propaganda exercise. See Ukrainian news source for an example of the art of propaganda. To quote:

“If everyone expected that they would see how troops rise up and march through the steppes of Kherson Oblast, too bad,” said Gumenyuk. “Because in the conditions of modern warfare, the counter-offensive looks different. Basically, it’s the depletion of the enemy’s forces.”

The Ukrainians do not control the necessary ground or have the necessary numbers outside the Donbas to deplete Russian forces. Again, invest in a map and focus on the steppe to the north or Kherson.

Expand your source material to include more balanced sources beside just Western corporate outlets that parrot Western corporate sources and ignore sources on the ground in the area at issue. Your greenness is showing: you do not seem to have any awareness of what happened yesterday:

*RF forces moving north in two directions across the Kherson plain toward Nikoleiv. That means the RF military is moving TOWARD UA forces that are defending a fixed position (Nikoleiv, i.e. UA defense).

*RF forces launched extensive artillery attacks last night on Nikoleiv, Kirvoy Rog, Sumy and Kharkov. ARTILLERY. That means RF ground troops in the vincinity of those cities (OFFENSE, though probably only a fixing action where Sumy and Kharhov are concerned. Don't know what a "fixing action" is? Do proper research then before you express your opinion.)

*RF launched nationwide missle strikes last night. Nationawide. Do you think there was a military purpose for that? Or is it just "Putin bad?"

Unlike others here, I make the assumption you are merely ignorant rather than a troll. My guess is you are from Canada, have zero military experience, in your 30s and if you have ever travelled out of the country it has only been to the United States or Western Europe. In any event, superficial "arguments" have very little credibility on a site like this and if you want to garner other's respect you need to have enough respect for yourself to put together an "argument" beyond the high school level.


Posted by: Gilbert | Aug 25 2022 0:51 utc | 154

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 24 2022 22:58 utc | 121


Carlos: What a putz you are! So, who do you think you are, General Patton? My first question is whose side are you rooting for? And secondly, do you realize that the SMO is not about killing as many civilians as possible. The point is to liberate them from the fascist Nazis in Kiev, not to emulate them you fucking fool.
If you are so smart, why don't you take yourself to Russia and show them your great plan to win the SMO in a couple of weeks. I am sure you will be hailed as a great hero.

Posted by: Guernica | Aug 25 2022 0:51 utc | 155

@ 145 Guernica

It's not MrB it's MrBS

Posted by: WTFUD | Aug 25 2022 0:59 utc | 156

@76 guernica

If not the threat from true-believing Azov, then it is most likely the propaganda that is making them stay in their trenches to fight.

If not that either, then we have to give them credit for staying next to their brother while in the grinder.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 25 2022 0:31 utc | 149


I do not, and would not, as an ex-Marine, belittle the courage of the rank-and-file Ukrainians troops on the ground. It is only the Nazis in Kiev and the right-wing commanders in the field that I disparage. As I am sure that you do too.

Posted by: Guernica | Aug 25 2022 1:02 utc | 157

About Those Western Media Reports and Ukranian Officials

“‘Russia is moving large numbers of troops to Ukraine’s south for battles against the country’s forces through the newly occupied territories and Crimea, according to Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence.’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/31/ukrainian-offensive-forces-russia-to-bolster-troops-in-occupied-south.
That was a month ago.” - Posted by: MrB | Aug 25 2022 0:05 utc | 142
From your same source:

“Russian forces have only three further days of fuel, food and ammunition left to conduct the war after a breakdown in their supply chains, Ukrainian military commanders have alleged.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/russian-invaders-have-three-days-of-supplies-left-says-ukraine-military

That was over 5 months ago.
Your source is garbage

Posted by: DocHollywood | Aug 25 2022 1:03 utc | 158

Ralf Fücks, co-founder of the Center for Liberal Modernity

Posted by: Oui | Aug 24 2022 20:31 utc | 64

Here’s an excellent article from 2015 on the german Greens’ role in the run-up to the ukraine crisis, and on their deep involvement with US neocons:

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Die-Gruenen-Parteiferne-Anstiftung-3370415.html

Machine translation:

[…] Shortly before, in September 2004, the neo-conservative think tank "Project For The New American Century" (PNAC), had published a "Letter of the One Hundred on Democracy in Russia." Chairman of the PNAC, which was in the same building as the aforementioned American Enterprise Institute, was the well-known neo-conservative William Kristol, co-founder of George W. Bush Jr. Richard Perle, members of the neo-conservative thought leaders Francis Fukuyama and Robert Kagan, as well as from the Bush administration Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz. The special feature of this letter is not the usual ideological exaggeration ("At this critical time in history when the West is pushing for democratic change around the world") of the neo-conservative program of a "Pax Americana" with aggressive-offensive military means - with the disastrous consequences known today (see: Iraq), the special feature is its signatories and the time.

Vladimir Putin had just taken up his second term. In the first, he accepted, among other things, the rapprochement of the Baltic states to NATO, supported the USA after 9/11, but also expressed himself very critically against the Iraq war of the "Coalition of the Willing", in which the USA had moved contrary to international law with Donald Rumsfeld's "new Europe" (including Poland, Ukraine and Georgia

It is not surprising that under the letter calling into question the "Partnership between Russia and the democracies of NATO and the European Union", signatories such as Robert Kagan, Karl-Theodor von und zu Guttenberg, John McCain, Joseph R. Biden, Francis Fukuyama, Friedbert Pflüger or André Glucksmann and Radek Sikorski stand. US neo-conservatives or conservatives of the opposition in Germany, or in the case of Sikorski, the later defense and foreign minister of Poland, who not only promoted the installation of a missile defense system in Poland with the USA, about which the "old Europe" France and Germany - after all NATO partners - were neither informed nor consulted, but who later also noticed by the "reveiling", Putin had proposed to the Polish president in 2009 to divide Ukraine between Russia and Poland: "That was simply a lie, and Sikorski had to go"1 (Radoslav Sikorski - Poland's sniper on the siding).

However, the letter also includes two well-known members of Alliance 90/The Greens: Cem Özdemir (from 2003 on a stay abroad in the USA as a "Transatlantic Fellow" of the "German Marshall Fund of the United States") and the then Federal Chairman Reinhard Bütikofer, today in the European Parliament and the Advisory Board "Europe/Transat

Ten years later. At the beginning of October 2014, again in Washington D.C. The conflict between the West and Russia has broken out openly in and around Ukraine. Europe has been performing a dance on the razor blade of an impending great war for months. The Center for European Policy Analysis invites you to a strategic forum, sponsored by the US energy and armor industry, among others. The topic is: "Invigorating Atlanticism in Central Europe: dangers and possibilities." Keynote speaker is Victoria Nuland, wife of Robert Kagan, and responsible for Europe and Eurasia in the US State Department. Nuland's role during the overthrow in Kiev should now be sufficiently known.2 Among the exclusively invited participants of the forum are none from Germany, with two exceptions: Marieluise Beck, Eastern Europe spokeswoman for the green Bundestag faction and wife of the co-chairman of the Heinrich Böll Foundation Ralf Fücks, as well as their joint daughter Charlotte Beck.
Back in Rumsfeld's "old Europe" in Berlin. Today, the Heinrich Böll Foundation is organizing a conference there entitled "Ukraine, Russia and the EU - Europe one year after the annexation of Crimea." Participants are, in addition to Marieluise Beck and Ralf Fücks, Timothy Snyder, whose book "Bloodlands" constructs a kind of belated birth of the Ukrainian nation from a victim myth, a book that is highly controversial among serious historians such as Manfred Hildermeier3, as well as the director of the Warsaw "Institute of Public Affairs" Ludger Volmer was also invited, who, however, felt compelled to reject the invitation, as the topic description already anticipates the outcome of the conference: "This conference is part of the problem, not the solution," says Volmer.4 In view of this networking with US hawks and neo-conservatives on a transatlantic escalation course with Russia, two questions arise above all. First of all, what does it actually mean that Maoist or Trotskyist backgrounds often appear on both sides of the Atlantic? PNAC chairman William Kristol is the son of former Trotskyist Irving Kristol. Marieluise Beck described herself in 1983 "as a sympathizer of the Trotskyists." 5

Reinhard Bütikofer also comes from a Maoist "K group", the Communist Federation of West Germany (KBW), of whose boss Joscha Schmierer Ralf Fücks was the right hand, such as the co-signatory of the PNAC letter André Glucksmann or Manuel Barroso, who as EU president probably made one of the most decisive "mistakes 6 Elisabeth Weber from the aforementioned "Expert Advisory Board Europe/Transatlantic" of the Heinrich Böll Foundation was even a decade in the Central Committee of such a Maoist organization.

Under the sign of an ideological change of sides, ideas prevail again that power always comes "from the rifle barrels" and that "Moscaus social imperialism" is the enemy No. 1 instead of an honest reappraisal of one's own ideological past?

And aren't, secondly, the personal-family ties and distributions of roles strikingly present? The theorist-intern couple Robert Kagan/Victoria Nuland could be depicted on this side of the Atlantic in the Fücks/Beck couple. Your own offspring is "introduced." Hunter Biden, for example, son of today's US vice president and co-signatory of the PNAC letter of 2004, now works at Burisma Holding, a private gas producer in Ukraine.7 Anne Applebaum, the wife of the aforementioned Radek Sikorski, regularly pleads for a tougher course in her columns for the Washington Post […]

The author’s conclusion holds true today as much as it did back then:

In view of the dramatically worsening crises in the world, the Greens would now need nothing more urgently than a "party-oriented foundation for peace" and less non-party incitements to confrontation and escalation in the political-ideological environment of neo-conservative as well as economic and private interdependencies of interests

Unfortunately, things have only become worse as the Fücks position is now basically unchallenged in Greens party, and all resistance to it has been eradicated.


Posted by: toxique | Aug 25 2022 1:05 utc | 159

@the pair #140, ok, I'll take the bait and explain why Russia's northern offensive makes no sense as a feint:

- To fix UAF forces, only the credible threat of attack against Kyiv was needed. Russians could have stayed massed across the border to achieve that, or at the very most effected a slow advance keeping supply lines short and efficient, taking & holding defensible positions and relying heavily on long-range fires.

- Instead they used "thunder run" tactics, exposing their troops to huge losses for **zero benefit** in a feint. Look at Hostomel: taken in an audacious airborne operation and then left to get pounded into dust and scrap metal by UAF arty. The only way that makes any sense is to establish a forward operating base to land more troops quickly and push into the city as the government flees and defenders melt away. Or the infamous stalled column, getting its air defense and command systems bombed by TB2 and SOF drone crews. Or the decision to bypass Kharkiv, which if taken would have massively aided Russia's operations in Donbas. Or all of those tank columns roaring down the highway into ambushes with nary an infantryman in sight.

- It's actually insane to throw Rosgvardia and OMON troops into the kind of combat situations they ended up in - obviously they were brought along to pacify urban territory that Russia intended to hold. Seen any OMON units on the front line lately?

- Russia's tactics in the north matched what they did in the south with more success (until Mikholaiv), and they've held all the territory they took there. If that outcome had been reversed, folks here would be saying the south was a feint while the north was the real prize.

- But most of all, a feint fixes the enemy in one place while you attack in another. Russia didn't start attacking Donbas in earnest until after the northern offensive ended, and the broken BTGs from that effort could be reconstituted and sent to join the main thrust. Frankly it's almost a tautology

- And lastly, consider the propaganda value to Ukraine of Russia's "run to the border". Victory breeds victory, and retreating from Kyiv is a huge morale boost to UAF is obviously foreseeable and encourages the west to continue/ramp up aid. Whereas it wrecks Russia's ability to conduct diplomacy around "protecting Russian speakers in Donbas" and drive a wedge into EU countries' unified front.


Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 25 2022 1:39 utc | 160

@yenwoda the concern troll

your questions are answered elsewhere on the web eg youtube. start with the duran duran and move on from there.

Posted by: Oh | Aug 25 2022 1:45 utc | 161

One more point. Trying to storm, or at least encircle Kyiv actually makes a lot of sense strategically. Russia knew sanctions were coming that would cause a lot of economic pain for years to come, and they knew Donbas was well fortified and it would be slow going there.

By taking Kyiv or cutting it off, Russia gets a massive bargaining chip that it can offer to trade back for Donbas (without a bloody fight) plus sanctions relief, and end up looking reasonable ("see, we never wanted to destroy Ukraine as a country"). Historians will fight over what assumptions specifically failed to pan out and who was at fault, but as a strategic gambit it's easy to see why it was so appealing.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 25 2022 1:50 utc | 162

@Oh, thanks for the rec. "Girls on Film" has clarified a few things for me.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 25 2022 2:00 utc | 163

I see we have a certified NATO trained troll around here. Kyiv was obviously a feint.

Russia's tactics in the north matched what they did in the south with more success (until Mikholaiv), and they've held all the territory they took there. If that outcome had been reversed, folks here would be saying the south was a feint while the north was the real prize.

Now tell us all what the difference is, strategically, operationally and otherwise between the north and the south. Did they ever want to take and hold the north? Would one be more important and useful than the other? Whether "tactics" were the same is irrelevant. The aims were different. Do the same tactics always necessitate the same follow-on actions? Only if you're starting from a conclusion and working backwards.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 25 2022 2:06 utc | 164

Putin to Kremlin by high speed motorcade and past midnight.

And before that arty, missiles and aerial bombing at high pace over whole territory of Ukraine.

Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 25 2022 2:11 utc | 165

Yenwoda,164

You don't understand feints, obviously. The objective of a feint is to make the enemy commit, not to fix. These are two separate military concepts.

To fix UAF forces, only the credible threat of attack against Kyiv was needed. Russians could have stayed massed across the border to achieve that, or at the very most effected a slow advance keeping supply lines short and efficient, taking & holding defensible positions and relying heavily on long-range fires. Wrong.. The only credible threat of attack is an actual attack, simulated to be stronger than it actually is. That convinces the enemy that the threat is not only genuine but dire, forces him to commit and allows for evaluation of its responses.

Instead they used "thunder run" tactics, exposing their troops to huge losses for **zero benefit** in a feint. Look at Hostomel: taken in an audacious airborne operation and then left to get pounded into dust and scrap metal by UAF arty. The only way that makes any sense is to establish a forward operating base to land more troops quickly and push into the city as the government flees and defenders melt away. Or the infamous stalled column, getting its air defense and command systems bombed by TB2 and SOF drone crews. Or the decision to bypass Kharkiv, which if taken would have massively aided Russia's operations in Donbas. Or all of those tank columns roaring down the highway into ambushes with nary an infantryman in sight.Wrong."Thunder run" is an American modified-tactic and not what the Russians were employing. The closest Western analog is the British/Canadian Dieppe raid of 1942, and even that doesn't capture its essence. Again, the "huge" losses (they were significant, not huge) were not for zero benefit. They forced the UA forces to COMMIT a disproportionally large counterforce. Hostomel was the RF base of operation, was secure until the RF departure and served its purpose in all respects. The ratio is believed to have more than 5-1 in favor of UA forces (excluding the RF "show force" that either remained behind in Belarus or merely traversed the roads of northern Ukraine) and they still assumed a largely defensive posture unless repelling RF probing actions toward the capital and its southern and western environs. The "infamous" stalled column was an invitation to the UA forces to strike, after which they would have been engaged by the RF forces still in Belarus. The UA forces did not take the bait. The absence of substantial UA air attacks probably indicates the degredation of those forces in the initial RF attacks.

More later. You've got so much wrong here i have to break it up into chunks.

Posted by: Deep Woods | Aug 25 2022 2:24 utc | 166

@ Yenwoda | Aug 25 2022 1:39 utc | 164
The only way that makes any sense is to establish a forward operating base to land more troops quickly and push into the city as the government flees and defenders melt away

But what happens when the defenders don't "melt away?" They certainly didn't in Baghdad, and so it took the US Army four years after the US 2003 invasion to pacify Baghdad with the 2007 "surge."

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 25 2022 2:30 utc | 167

oldhippie@169

Do you have a source on the motorcade thing or just gossip-mongering?

Posted by: Deep Woods | Aug 25 2022 2:33 utc | 168

deep woods, the video went viral and made headlines. ie newsweek "Putin Speculation Sparked by Dramatic Kremlin Video". daily mail "Mystery surrounds a late night dash to the Kremlin by Vladimir Putin amid suspicions he has prepared a new televised statement on the war in ..." it happened june 26th.

Posted by: annie | Aug 25 2022 2:53 utc | 169

Posted by: MrB | Aug 25 2022 0:05 utc | 142 re: Russian moves an Ukraines Counter Offensive.

2 serious questions for you (with ancillary questions)...
1) do you know how many men comprise 2 Battalion Tactical Groups?

2)What Ukrainian Counter Offensive?
a) when did it kick off? Dates please.
b) How many men/units are in this counter offensive
c) How many AFV's, planes, drones, arty pieces are in this counter offensive?
d) what are the axes of direction of this counter offensive?
e) what are the announced tactical and operational goals of this counter offensive?
f) what progress have they made so far? Towns captured, Russian units attrited, numbers of Russian equipment destroyed...

Your answers to these questions will be enlightening for us all.

Posted by: scuppers | Aug 25 2022 2:54 utc | 170

Evidence of foreknowledge of events :

In the UK all restrictive covid measures (mask mandates, social distancing requirements etc) were prescheduled to end on the very same day Russia's invasion began.

Posted by: Nick | Aug 25 2022 3:01 utc | 171

A lot depends on these turbines. The fate of the West depends on these turbines. IF the RF has finally, after decades, given up on Western diplomacy, I imagine they'd be delayed (inspected of course, for reasons stated by other barflies) and delayed further, and then, perhaps rejected, but I'm not convinced that's a great move. I doubt their contract would be fulfilled to the point that Gazprom's legal arm couldn't find some clause that wasn't adhered to and thus accepting but not reinstalling the turbines. The liberal globalist order might actually want the turbines to be rejected however, assisting with their great reset plans, disrupting power, people freezing and starving to death, halting industry, and depopulation. There's a whole lot of contemplating the situation and possibilities that is no doubt occurring in Moscow. The EU has bit the hand that feeds them as their masters instructed, whether or not they continue to be fed requires the humans in the house to think things over.

Posted by: NJH | Aug 25 2022 3:04 utc | 172

It's actually insane to throw Rosgvardia and OMON troops into the kind of combat situations they ended up in - obviously they were brought along to pacify urban territory that Russia intended to hold. Seen any OMON units on the front line lately?

National Guardsmen are not urban pacification units, they are occupation troops. That's pretty much what they've been used for in Crimea, Kherson and Zapo. It appears they have been used in Sumy and Kharkov as well, and where they are dominant in fighting areas that is an indication that they are being used as a fixing force.

Russia's tactics in the north matched what they did in the south with more success (until Mikholaiv), and they've held all the territory they took there. If that outcome had been reversed, folks here would be saying the south was a feint while the north was the real prize.

Not even close. RT tactics in Sumy were originally to fix, have evolved into defensive border troops against rogue and specialist UA attacks. In Kharkov its a combination of fixing (closer to the city itself) and pincer (toward Dnipro). The other end of the pincer is still in Zapo, so there's a long ways to go yet. Kherson is the lauchpad for a "western campaign" that will have two arms: one focused on Odessa and one on western Dnipro. The RF announcement of an Odessa militia suggests the near-term focus will be on Dnipro. Donetsk is essentially one huge fixing operation. Suckers.

But most of all, a feint fixes the enemy in one place while you attack in another. Russia didn't start attacking Donbas in earnest until after the northern offensive ended, and the broken BTGs from that effort could be reconstituted and sent to join the main thrust. Frankly it's almost a tautology

Wrong. The purpose of a feint is to force the enemy to commit. There hasn't been a northern offensive. You don't understand the concepts and those of us that do recognize you're a bullshit artist, not a troll.

And lastly, consider the propaganda value to Ukraine of Russia's "run to the border". Victory breeds victory, and retreating from Kyiv is a huge morale boost to UAF is obviously foreseeable and encourages the west to continue/ramp up aid. Whereas it wrecks Russia's ability to conduct diplomacy around "protecting Russian speakers in Donbas" and drive a wedge into EU countries' unified front.

Propaganda is largely, though not exclusively, insward-directed to one's own people. Again, you're a bullshit artist winging it on a website. And you got really wobbly there at the end.

Posted by: Deep Woods | Aug 25 2022 3:10 utc | 173

Deep Woods @ 172
Just a tweet. Could be an old video. Who knows?
BREAKING: Putin's motorcade was spotted heading at high speed to the Kremlin. It's unknown why.

I guess that was last night in Russia? maybe?

Posted by: circumspect | Aug 25 2022 3:12 utc | 174

annie@ 173

I read it as a breaking event. My apologies.

Posted by: Deep Woods | Aug 25 2022 3:12 utc | 175

circumspect@144

A very intelligent assessment of what is actually going on in Ukraine.

Posted by: Deep Woods | Aug 25 2022 3:19 utc | 176

Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 25 2022 1:50 utc | 166
One more point. Trying to storm, or at least encircle Kyiv ...etc, etc.

One more point. Trying to storm, or at least encircle Kyiv actually makes zero sense strategically. Russia knew sanctions were coming that would cause a minimal amount of economic pain to Russia, but immense amounts of pain to its ‘partners’ for years to come, and they knew Donbas was well fortified and it would be slow going there.
By feinting at Kyiv, Russia gets a massive advantage at the point of its attack, while freezing most of Kiev’s deployable reserves and then chipping away at Ukraine’s logistic infrastructure, further immobilizing them, and inhibiting Kiev’s ability to reinforce its forces in the Donbas (without a bloody fight). Sanctions relief isn’t necessary as the sanctions (European own-goal) are working marvelously for Russia and destroying the EU economy(ies), and end up providing never ending comic relief for the bulk of humanity. Historians will never fight over your ridiculous assumptions or how they specifically failed to pan out or even how you were given them. But as a fiduciary duty it's easy to see why it was so appealing to you.

Posted by: scuppers | Aug 25 2022 3:22 utc | 177

And then there is the seemingly associated silence about the biolabs so far.

Maybe this is just another "this is going to slow for me" feelings but it just doesn't look right to me.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 24 2022 18:47 utc | 15

Agree, and I've come to assess that VVP's team only uses things like parading captured mercs or nazi's out on stage when it suits their purpose, and not before. And that has taught me patience. Like the alledged topless pics from a Siberia prison location today, showing the usa recently convicted basketball convict was as most already knew: a man. "-took them long enough to expose that freak!"

Posted by: ERing46Z | Aug 25 2022 3:25 utc | 178

German NG storage reported as of yesterday 80% full.. The winter heating season will be insanely expensive - but there will be enough NG.

Posted by: Exile | Aug 25 2022 3:29 utc | 179

Exile | Aug 25 2022 3:29 utc | 183

Sure there will Sunshine. The German government would never lie to its people.

Posted by: Ar Dietrich | Aug 25 2022 3:36 utc | 180

@ 183
is enough nat gas provided full tramsmission continues. Problem is, is only at 20%. Not enough to get through the winter.

Posted by: oh | Aug 25 2022 3:36 utc | 181

@ fanto | Aug 25 2022 0:17 utc | 147

thanks fanto... might take a longer time.. that's all... people's memory is short.. we live in a world where history is revised regularly to push a particular agenda..

Posted by: james | Aug 25 2022 3:38 utc | 182

Historians will fight over what assumptions specifically failed to pan out and who was at fault, but as a strategic gambit it's easy to see why it was so appealing.
-Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 25 2022 1:50 utc | 166
No they won’t. Not when it’s so that it’s your assumptions that fail to pan out.

Posted by: DocHollywood | Aug 25 2022 4:01 utc | 183

@51 bevin | Aug 24 2022 19:51 utc

Thank you for putting this into words, describing the surface activities that we see daily in their true context, as this:

...a wider contest in which the world learns that the Empire...can no longer get what it wants. It is this simple but almost incredible fact which has dawned over the past few years...And the leaders of every former colony or possession, protectorate or client state...have been watching with almost childlike awe as Moscow has demonstrated not just that the Empire is weak but that its weakness lies in its supposed strengths.

And so much more that you wrote, all of it true and priceless - that the world begins to feel itself safe, that sees the global neighborhood perhaps protected in the final extreme now from the gangsters who have terrorized it and extorted from it for so many generations.

We usually say that the hour produces the man, but the reverse is true today, that the man (Russia) has produced the hour - the hour of safety, in which to be free at last.

It is on par with the great dreams of Hollywood, that a lone warrior has shown up in town, to drive the outlaws away. And Russia, standing alone if need be, is that warrior.

Sorry to elaborate what you wrote so well, I just love to see the words written, to hear this truth spoken out loud, that Russia is liberating the entire post-colonial world.

This is an enormous concept, literally of a global dimension.

It is the truth of the world's experience I believe. We used to say, in discussing the end of the US empire, that Russia (and China) were tasked with lowering the drunken man at the party to the ground without breaking anything, either in the man or the party.

Now we see that Russia has indeed taken an ultimate grip, intended not to let go until the body is on the ground, and quiet. So this Ukraine thing is a matter of the entire world.

Many thanks.

Posted by: Grieved | Aug 25 2022 4:05 utc | 184

Below is a quote from a Xinhuanet posting that says it ain't over yet


WASHINGTON, Aug. 24 (Xinhua) -- The United States on Wednesday announced an additional tranche of security assistance to Ukraine worth nearly 3 billion U.S. dollars, the largest one-time weapons aid to Kiev that came as the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached the half-year mark.

According to a breakdown by the Department of Defense (DoD), items in the newly-announced package include six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) with additional munitions for NASAMS, up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, up to 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition, up to 24 counter-artillery radars, Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and support equipment for Scan Eagle UAS systems, "Vampire" counter-UAS systems, as well as laser-guided rocket systems.

The DoD said in the statement that the weapons will come from contracts with arms manufacturers, with the DoD tapping congressionally approved money appropriated for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative to purchase them. This is different from the Presidential Drawdown Authority through which President Joe Biden has so far approved 19 tranches of weapons deliveries to Ukraine from the DoD's existing stocks.

The United States has committed more than 13.5 billion dollars in security assistance to Ukraine since Biden took office.


The shit show continues until it doesn't and there is fear showing in the US Treasury markets so maybe more countries will stop buying them in anticipation of migrating to new global sytsem of finace...yes, I am being premature

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 25 2022 4:17 utc | 185

RE the Newsweek citation:
Given Russia's overwhelming numerical superiority, Putin expected the government in Kyiv to fall in as little as 72 hours

The origin of that idea probably comes from Marine Corps Commandant General David Berger:

"The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours," said Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. They "cannot explain why Ukraine is still hanging on. Why is that?"

Link to Breaking Defense--Top American generals

Posted by: aj94112 | Aug 25 2022 4:18 utc | 186

OMG! Clownsewitz is increasingly gorged on cocaine:

"Russia, today - like six months ago - you still have the opportunity to sign your surrender before we destroy you on our soil. The clock is ticking ... tick-tock, tick-tock".
https://t.me/OpenUkraine/24868

Posted by: SCan | Aug 25 2022 4:27 utc | 187

@OohCanada
"Stopping shelling is not really something that can be done."
- Russia did it for most of Lugansk. It bothers me to see reports of shelling everyday in Donetsk. That't why I'm disappointed with the slow advance around Pesky, Mar'inka and Avdiivka. It's too slow to save civilian lives in Donetsk.
I don't care about military tactical analyses here. This is my humanitarian metric. Why not make an extra effort to faster push the front line 30Km away from Donetsk urban area?
It makes no sense to me. It makes no sense to the Ukrainians in DPR. And certainly makes no sense to Russian military.
Therefore my conclusion is a lack of capacity to advance from one side, and a better then expected resistence on the other side.

"They have all Nato's gear and training they had by far the largest army in Europe and they are getting destroyed even tho they heavily outnumber the Russians and have a massive bunker system."
- yes, we all can see that. I didn't question those facts.

"Nato will need to overhaul and train way different moving forward.
You are seeing a numbers game that Nato fully did not expect or plan for. 1/5 the expected Russian troops are being used and the number of losses are probably at 25% of "the plan""
- NATO was expecting 1 Million Russians? So, a war declaration and the use of conscripts? I can see a logic behind your assumption. NATO and Ukraine keep provoking in order to escalate, while Russia resists the escalation, hindering NATO's plan.
It's just that, 25% of losses are still a lot of losses. And the longer the conflict exists, the more the losses. Specially of NATO keeps sending more and more weapons.
Wouldn't Russian soldiers prefer to have finished it before they had +20 HIMARS (16 USA models + 6 UK's M270 + 3 MARS 2 from Germany) hitting them in the rear with such prrcision? I bet they did.

I like to question, I like good arguments, I liked your counter-argument, OohCanada.

What I don't like is intelectual dishonesty and lack of education, so I'm not even dignifying the pro-Russian fanatics with an answer. I just asked the questions. If that bothers you guys, then you're snowflakes. If instead of a counter-argument, all you have to say is call a "troll" to the ones that makes questions and arguments that don't agree 100% with your point of views, then you are ridiculous.

1) why did 35 Russian BTG could only get 2 villages around Kherson? There are no trenches there.

2) why has Russia decreased the artillery rate to 10k from the peak 20k that 'b' talked about? And didn't a Ukrainian source complained that the ratio was just 5k for Ukraine and 50k for Russia, every day?

3) why did Russia entered Siversk right after the full liberation of 100% of Lugansk Republic, and then spent July and August going backwards, out of Siversk?

4) if they can make a 3 way operational encirclement to Kodema (southeast of Bakhmut/Artemovsk, why isn't the same tactic used in Avdiivka?

5) if Russian air defense systems like S400 are so good, why is Donetsk, ZNPP, and Kherson still under so much shelling?

6) when looking at such low resolution drone images, where we can't say for sure what vehicle we're looking at, do you really believe that's a destroyed HIMARS? It could well be any other model of MLRS.

7) what is Russia really doing at the Kharkov frontlines? Why so much terrain lost (ex: Stary Saltov). Why this recent insignificant recapture of Udy extending the frontline right next Russian border?

8) does anyone have the total of Ukrainians KIA announced everyday by Russian MoD. How does that compare with this obviously exagerated number in that document of unknown origin posted in b's article?

9) and since Ukraine still has so many MLRS and tanks to be destroyed everyday, how many Russians are killed by those before Russia's counter-artillery destroys them?

10) and finally a new question: understanding the Winter will be hard for Europe without Russian gas, how does the prolonguing of a slow attrition war into the snowy/icy days in Ukrainian land impact Russian SMO? It cannot be good for Russian guys and bad for Ukrainians at the same time, because it's the same weather for both sides. And if there's a pause, wouldn't that be ideal for Ukraine/NATO to ressuply more trained units (ex: from UK) and equipment during that period?

People with intelectual honesty and education are very welcome to answer me. If I ask questions, it's because I don't know, but would like to know the answer. That's all.

Ridiculous guys calling "troll" to anyone making questions, just because they're snowflakes that can't handle the answers, can go cry to their mamas instead.

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 25 2022 4:28 utc | 188

Just a thought. Maybe Russia is trying to bleed the US to death? Ukraine seems a bottomless pit for life and money. Ukraine supplies the men, US the finance.
Meanwhile pay back via Venezuela.

Posted by: g wiltek | Aug 25 2022 4:46 utc | 189

to Carlos Marques and others wondering why the Russian are NOT doing certain things:

Russia is terrified; terrified the Ukraine armed forces might collapse before winter.

Russia is fighting the combined West. They don't like the fact that their fellow brothers in Ukraine are doing the dying.

IMO, for every Ukraine conscript who dies, 10 western euros must die. or 100 of them left destitute, no jobs, broken family, suicide.

Sorry if I am also equally labelled a troll.

Posted by: chola3 | Aug 25 2022 5:36 utc | 190

1) why did 35 Russian BTG could only get 2 villages around Kherson? There are no trenches there.

Russia isn't on the offensive around Kherson, that is a defensive force in anticipation of a counter-offensive.

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 25 2022 6:10 utc | 191

Posted by: aj94112 | Aug 25 2022 4:18 utc | 190

Was it the same model Neil Ferguson used to predict Covid-19 would kill everyone?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Aug 25 2022 6:11 utc | 192

2) why has Russia decreased the artillery rate to 10k from the peak 20k that 'b' talked about? And didn't a Ukrainian source complained that the ratio was just 5k for Ukraine and 50k for Russia, every day?

Do you have sources for any of this? Where are you getting these numbers from? They are off.

There are many reasons the rate of artillery fire would fluctuate over the course of a war.

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 25 2022 6:14 utc | 193

3) why did Russia entered Siversk right after the full liberation of 100% of Lugansk Republic, and then spent July and August going backwards, out of Siversk?

That is a disingenuous question (or dumb?)

DPR/LPR never entered Siversk except for a couple recon teams. They never went backwards.

As I suggested a few months ago DPR/LPR would push right up to Siversk and stop, continuing the offensive south of there.

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 25 2022 6:22 utc | 194

Just a thought. Maybe Russia is trying to bleed the US to death? Ukraine seems a bottomless pit for life and money. Ukraine supplies the men, US the finance.
Meanwhile pay back via Venezuela.

Posted by: g wiltek | Aug 25 2022 4:46 utc |

I am only hearing billions going to Ukraine. I am seeing around $10 billion recently, even though Biden signed something that was allegedly $40 billion. In any event, the USA is capable of putting trillions to a war. The numbers they give for Iraq is $2 trillion and the same amount for Afghanistan. I don't think the USA warmongers are any less invested in Ukraine. Although having said that, there is the weird phenomenon of the USA giving armaments in drips and drabs. For example, 16 HIMARs instead of 160. And in January instead of June. It's like they don't want Ukraine to win.

Posted by: Simon | Aug 25 2022 6:30 utc | 195

Russia is terrified; terrified the Ukraine armed forces might collapse before winter.
Posted by: chola3 | Aug 25 2022 5:36 utc | 195

---

An excellent observation!

Ukraine is Russia's fulcrum to apply leverage against the West with the force of Winter.

Posted by: too scents | Aug 25 2022 6:41 utc | 196

4) if they can make a 3 way operational encirclement to Kodema (southeast of Bakhmut/Artemovsk, why isn't the same tactic used in Avdiivka?

That is a question you could answer yourself with a little research. Check out the force composition and defenses around Avdiivka as well as supply and logistics.

Avdiivka is way different...it is the heart of Ukrainian defenses.

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 25 2022 6:43 utc | 197

@oldhippie | Aug 24 2022 23:53 utc | 135

I am aware of all that. The RF has more and better counter battery resources than have ever previously existed. The whole point of counter battery is to work fast. This is all short range, the shells are not in the air that long. There is a limit to how fast the most mobile self-propelled arty can get up and move.
The number of personnel still alive who know how to operate these systems has to be small. Assume NATO rotates crews in and out. Vulnerabilities are everywhere. It makes no sense.

I still do not get your point. Counterbattery combat (artillery duel) is a tricky task. The ukrainian gunners are not bad technically, and are the survivors of 6 months of combat. Their tactic is to move guns into position as secret as possible, open fire, and retreat at the first notion of incoming grenades (mind most are subsonic), approaching helicopters, or flying by warplanes. Even for the conventional barrel artillery the possible area to hit Energodar and the NPP is huge, even more M777, not to mention HIMARS which are playing desperate hide and seek with the Russian forces.

And look how inefficient not only the shelling of Energodar and ZNPP has been, scattered arrivals landing here and there, some making impact, most just landing somewhere. HIMARS just recently fired 40-60 missiles to Nova Kakhova dam and HPP causing some holes in the road, the bridge still operational, Antonovsky got a hit on the repair workers with some casualties but bridge still standing and about to be repaired. There have been spent several hundred GMLRS at these two targets alone, the offensive in the Nikolayev area is rolling though.

Mind that 40 Himars shells represent 0.1% of the whole of GMLRS produced ever, the 200-400 rounds aimed at this limited area of Antonovsky, Nova Kakhova, and ZNPP/Energodar 0.5-1% of that total. No new GMLRS shipments have been announced in the latest "military aid".

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 25 2022 6:45 utc | 198

It must be traumatic for Nato to stand here six months later and try to argue that it did something right. That is why we are getting this obsession with the "foiled" conquest of Kiev. Maybe they should go to SERBIA and nuke something there, which I have no doubt they will.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Aug 25 2022 6:51 utc | 199

The high number of artillery shells used is directly related to the "rolling barrage" used in Donbass fort areas. There might be less need for that as they slowly pass through to end of it.

In a way USA is being demilitarized as well. If the claims of their active units being stripped and flying weapons out of Alaska are true. New Ukraine aid bills aren't aid for Ukraine, they purport that US army can order new weapons from MIC. So another tax payer - MIC milking scheme.

Re. Kherson-Nikolaev, Russians might not be intending to assault Nikolaev in the near future, they just did some limited offensive to break whatever buildup of UKR formations managed there, with apparently effective results. They might wait Donbass to get cleared up more from the forts.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 25 2022 6:56 utc | 200

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