Ukraine - Wrong Assumptions, Wrong Conclusions - And A Lot Of Dead Soldiers
As the war in Ukraine passes the half year mark lots of media produce their conclusions about the beginning of the war. But when looked at in detail these are most superficial write ups of what people assume Russia's plans at the start of the war were and how those assumed plans fit with the presumed reality.
The Washington Post has a long 'exclusive' piece headlined:
Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital
It first describes the immediate start of the war and then states a false assumption:
The question everyone faced at that moment, [Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis] Monastyrsky said, was: “How far can the enemy go with that enormous fist?”If the Russians could seize the seat of power in Ukraine, or at least cause the government to flee in panic, the defense of the country would quickly unravel. Moscow could install a puppet government.
That was the Kremlin’s plan.
I don't know why the authors think they know what the Kremlin's plan was. I am certain that the described one is not what Russia intended to strive for.
A piece in Newsweek makes similar assertions:
How Putin Botched the Ukraine War and Put Russia's Military Might at Risk
Ukrainian defenders have indeed been ferociously determined, while Russian troops have had to contend with bad battlefield leaders, inferior weapons and an unworkable supply chain. They've also been hobbled by Putin himself. He misread the world situation and personally ordered a disastrous invasion, looking to overthrow the government in Kyiv. He directed a botched effort to take Donbas, depleting the Russian armed forces in the process.
...
"Putin, like every other dictator we've known in the modern era, thinks he knows better, more than his own military, and more than any experts," one senior intelligence official who works on Russia (and requested anonymity to speak frankly) tells Newsweek.
...
The February invasion was designed to overthrow Volodymyr Zelensky and take over the entire country, and Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus to Ukraine's north, threatening Kyiv.Given Russia's overwhelming numerical superiority, Putin expected the government in Kyiv to fall in as little as 72 hours.
There is no evidence that any of those assertions are true.
At the beginning of the year Russia faced a problem. In the larger picture it had to prevent Ukraine's admission to NATO. Negotiations with the U.S. had failed to achieve that. In the immediate situation Russia also had to prevent an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Donbas republics.
There were several potential ways to achieve that each of which came with a different time lines and price point.
At the beginning of war Putin made one remark to the Ukrainian military command to give up, to make the necessary concessions, and to remove the civil government should it not agree with them. But during the first days of the war it became immediate clear that the Ukrainian military command did not want, or did not dare to do that. This military coup would have been the cheapest and fastest solution for both, Russia and Ukraine.
A second option was to press the Ukrainian government into agreeing to Russia conditions to end the war. To remove the Ukrainian army from the Donbas, to accept Crimea as part of Russia and to repudiate any NATO association plans.
The move of Russian forces to around Kiev was designed to achieve that. It nearly reached that aim during talks held at the end of March in Turkey. As soon as the Ukraine seemed to agree to the Kremlin's conditions, and to a potential summit, Russia ordered its troops to move back from the city.
On March 29 France24 summarized its daily report collection with this:
Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status and a 15-year consultation period on the future of Russian-occupied Crimea as long as a complete ceasefire with Russian forces is agreed, negotiators said at the conclusion of peace talks in Istanbul on Tuesday. Despite Russian vows to "radically" reduce military operations near Kyiv and Chernigiv, Western officials urged caution.
The Kremlin's hope for a fast end of the conflict was disappointed when, a few days later, Zelensky suddenly refuted all the concessions his negotiators in Istanbul had made.
This followed a phone call between the British prime minister Boris Johnson and Zelensky on April 2 and Johnson's visit to Kiev on April 9.
A report in the Ukrainian Pravda describe what happened (machine translation):
After the arrival of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Kyiv, a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin has become less likely.
...
[T]wo things happened, after which a member of the Ukrainian delegation, Mikhail Podolyak, had to openly admit that the meeting of the presidents was "out of time."The first is the exposure of atrocities, rapes, murders, massacres, robbery, indiscriminate bombing, hundreds and thousands of other war crimes committed by Russian troops in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories…
The second obstacle to agreements with the Russians arrived in Kyiv on April 9."
Details: According to UP sources close to Zelensky, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.
The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he needs to be squeezed, and not negotiated with him.
And secondly, if Ukraine is ready to sign any agreements on guarantees with him, then they are not.
This position of Johnson testified: the collective West, which back in February offered Zelensky to surrender and run away, now felt that Putin was actually not at all as omnipotent as he was imagined, and that right now there was a chance to squeeze him.
Three days after Johnson left for the UK, Putin went public and said talks with Ukraine "have reached an impasse."
The 'west', in form of Joe Biden's messenger Boris Johnson, told Zelensky - first in a phone call and then in person - that he would be on his own if he should sign a ceasefire agreement that made any concessions to Russia.
Russia's initiative to achieve fast concessions, and its motive to keep troops around Kiev, had failed because the 'west' did not agree to it. It wanted a long war to drag Russia down.
Zelensky accepted the 'western' pressure for a war 'down to the last Ukrainian' and ended the negotiations by making new demands that Russia could never accept.
Since then Russia removed its troops from the vicinity of the big cities Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Karkiv. This to drag the Ukrainian troops away from the civilians in the cities into the countryside and to exposed them to the massive artillery strikes the Russians use along the frontlines.
There the Ukrainian troops get 'demilitarized' and 'denazified' just as Putin had ordered.
Anyone who says that Russia is 'too slow' and 'does not make progress' along the frontline misunderstands this situation. Russia is deliberately dragging the Ukrainian forces towards the rural frontline to destroy them there without creating massive civil casualties:
The Russian army deliberately slowed down its advance in the special military operation in Ukraine in order to reduce civilian casualties, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said at a meeting of defense chiefs from Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states on Wednesday."We strictly comply with humanitarian law during the special operation. Attacks are carried out with high-precision weapons on the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ military infrastructure facilities, including command points, airfields, depots, fortified areas and defense industry sites. At the same time, every effort is being done to prevent civilian casualties. It certainly slows down the advance but we do it consciously," Shoigu pointed out.
If the following document is really original this approach seems to be quite successful.
bigger
Up to July 1, according to the document, the losses of the Ukrainian military were:
- 76,640 dead
- 42,704 wounded or shell shocked
- 7,244 captured
- 2,816 missing
- 1,610 non-combat casualties (suicides?)
The total numbers look realistic to me. The number of dead is higher then my estimate but the number of wounded seems to be low in relation to the dead.
There may be several reasons for that. The evacuation of wounded soldiers from positions under artillery fire is extremely difficult and Ukraine's military medical service is not exactly up to date. There are no helicopter evacuations and no tracked medical transport vehicles that could take the wounded out.
A lot of wounded will thereby miss the 'golden hour' and simply die before they can be brought into effective medical care. We can also assume that the Ukrainian staff only counts the heavily wounded and that people who get patched up and send back to the front line are likely not included here.
July 1 was in the 17th week of the war and the total number of likely dead on the above list is 81,066. That makes for an average kill rate of 4.767 per week or 681 Ukrainian soldiers per day. As the first weeks of the war were not exceptionally bloody the number of current dead per day is likely higher.
Nine weeks have passed since the reference date of the above report. They have likely added another 42,000 dead to the list.
These numbers are consistent with the Russian military's daily 'clobber list' which reports of several hundreds Ukrainian casualties per day due to air strikes and well target artillery.
A recent New York Times piece about the costs of war also gives some numbers:
Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the top commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Monday that about 9,000 Ukrainians had been killed at the front.
...
[T]his month, Pentagon officials estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Russians had been killed or wounded; they put the number of deaths at 20,000.
Those numbers are simply not believable.
Here, from the same piece, is why:
Analysts estimate that Russia is firing around 10,000 artillery shells a day, down from a peak of as much as 20,000 during the campaign to take Luhansk, and that Ukraine is firing several thousand artillery rounds a month.
10 to 20 thousand rounds per day(!) means some 450,000 rounds per month fired from the Russian side. The Ukrainian counter fire is down to 'several thousand artillery rounds a month'. That is ratio of 100 to 1.
How the heck is that supposed to result in only 9,000 killed Ukrainians and 80,000 Russian casualties? It simply can't.
The deliberately slow advance Shoigu describes is achieving the war aim of 'demilitarizing' the Ukraine while Russia's army takes a minimum of casualties.
Most of the experienced younger officers, captains and majors and the senior sergeants that were the backbone of the Ukrainian army will by now be dead. Together with the high material losses and high troop casualties the Ukrainian army has taken this will make it less and less capable of any organized maneuver or resistance.
All that is left is Ukrainian cannon fodder which Russian artillery eats up with enormous ferocity.
It is sad that it has come to this.
Posted by b on August 24, 2022 at 17:58 UTC | Permalink
next page »thanks b...
narrative management is different then reality... the west under people like boris the clown work hard to perpetuate a myth or revise history accordingly... of course the western presstitutes do the very same thing... it is as caitlin johnstone says - narrative management... everything is a bit pr campaign which your post highlights... it is a shame the west has tried to redefine reality according to its own agenda... nazis aren't nazis and there are none to be seen... numbers are made up and fictitious... the bellingcraps of the world continue on.... people outside remain ignorant as it is best that they remain so, and on and on... not everyone buys into the narrative being pushed by the west though... some of us would like some truth as opposed to a constant diet of arsenic... it is hard to find it too...
Posted by: james | Aug 24 2022 18:12 utc | 3
That there are 100 000+ dead Ukrainian soldiers is very likely. I would also not be surprised if the number is even much higher. The videos and images we have seen are extraordinary.
It is very sad indeed. It is also very sad that we now live in a fascist society in the west.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 24 2022 18:13 utc | 4
it isn't coincidental that boris johnson shows up here... the usa-uk duo are tied at the financial hip.. this war is a real threat to financial capitalisms agenda and they know it.. bring in the best actors and narrative managers... if boris or biden is all they have - they are in real trouble...
Posted by: james | Aug 24 2022 18:16 utc | 5
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (08242022)
As a result of the offensive actions of the Allied forces, the losses of the 68th Infantry-Jager, 66th Mechanized and 56th Motorized Infantry Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operating in the Donetsk direction amounted to more than 600. In addition, about 160 servicemen of the 66th Mechanized Brigade refused to take further part in further hostilities. The command of the operational-tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Donetsk" decided to withdraw these formations due to the loss of combat capability from their positions in the rear areas.
More than 50 percent of the personnel of the 20th Battalion of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed by the strikes of the operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Artemovsk area. Due to the high losses, the soldiers of the battalion voluntarily left their positions and departed in an unknown direction.
In the area of the locality of Lozove, Kherson region, while trying to secretly cross the Ingulets River, the 18th battalion of the 35th Brigade of the AFU Marines was defeated. More than 80 nationalists and 6 cars were destroyed.
High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Konstantinovka area of the Donetsk People's Republic hit the temporary deployment point of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. About 80 nationalists and 8 pieces of military equipment were destroyed.
During the day, seven control points were hit, including the 66th mechanized Brigade in the Novomikhailovka area, the 15th rocket Artillery Regiment in the Kurdyumovka area of the Donetsk People's Republic, the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade in the Gulyai-Pole area of the Zaporozhye region, as well as 47 artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military APU equipment in 212 districts.
Destroyed: five ammunition depots in the areas of Ilyinka, Krasnaya Gora of the Donetsk People's Republic, Novoaleksandrovka of the Zaporozhye region, Shirokoye of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Snigirevka of the Mykolaiv region, as well as a Joint logistics point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Orekhov of the Zaporozhye region.
As part of the counter-battery struggle, the following were hit: a rocket artillery battery of multiple launch rocket systems "Hurricane" in the Dzerzhinsk area of the Donetsk People's Republic, a platoon of MLRS "Smerch" in the area of the settlement of Rogan, Kharkiv region.
In addition, four platoons of Grad multiple launch rocket systems were suppressed in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Artemovskoye, Orlovka of the Donetsk People's Republic and Barmashovo of the Mykolaiv region, as well as three platoons of D-30 howitzers in firing positions in the areas of the settlements of Soledar, Opytne and Antonovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
Russian air defense means shot down seven Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Chernyanka, Belaya Krynitsa, Kherson region, Nikolskoye, Volnovakha and Trudovoye of the Donetsk People's Republic during the day.
Also, two Ukrainian multiple rocket launches were intercepted near the village of Kamenka, Kharkiv region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 268 aircraft, 148 helicopters, 1803 unmanned aerial vehicles, 369 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4382 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 819 multiple rocket launchers, 3339 field artillery and mortars, as well as 5034 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: Summary | Aug 24 2022 18:17 utc | 6
If Russia signs any seize fire, agreement with Ukraine it will lose.
Anything other than complete annihilation of Ukrainian army and leadership will end in a long term Russian defeat.
Posted by: Balkanizer | Aug 24 2022 18:18 utc | 7
Thanks for the reporting b but there is still a part missing for me.
What are the numbers for the guns for hire from outside Ukraine?
I was under the impression that mercenaries were/are a significant percentage of Ukraine forces but don't see numbers. I would think that a goal is to eliminate those mercenaries in Ukraine so they can't be recruited to fight in ME or other bankers wars.
I was one who thought that this SMO would end sooner and now wonder how much it will end up going into other countries to enforce the security goals against an empire that is not agreement capable/reliable.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 24 2022 18:23 utc | 8
The recent visit of Bojo to Ukraine - Kiev - for the "Independence day", has surely the same motive as his earlier one on April 9th. To tell Zelensky what to do to continue the war.
But now, the situation has changed, and the "end-point" of the war is no longer calculable. There are few conditions that can be named that would stop it.
***
The "nouveau maitresse" of the UK, Liz Truss, will soon find that being PM is not a lot of fun and her "woke" attitude will be a joke for the rest of the world. Not so much if all she can suggest are nukes as a solution.
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 24 2022 18:30 utc | 9
Sholz still promises endless support gives Slovak. 15 Leopards so Slovak can give Ukr 30 vehicles...UK promises endless support...duplicitous Macron says his peoples must be ready to suffer in these times in this situation(gonna send more Caesars after phoning Putin?)...Biden sending much more whenever it might get there...EU gonna set up training grounds for Ukr troops as well as Uk training tens thousands.......so easily could this conflagration deepen and spread?
Posted by: Jo | Aug 24 2022 18:31 utc | 11
Absolutely staggering the number of dead per day.
It is amazing that the ukrops do not simply turn the other direction while aiming their rifles.
Their "county" has been so thoroughly corrupted by totalitarianism that the majority of them have no conscious-ability to voice their dissenting opinion. Totalitarianism turns you into a silent husk, a creature doomed to stare wide-eyed at encroaching death.
I think a moment should be made to spare a prayer for all these soldiers who were already dead before the Russians liberated them.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 24 2022 18:34 utc | 12
@psychohistorian
The Russians regularly give numbers of foreign fighters in Ukraine. The last time they were down to 2-3,000 with more leaving (or getting killed) than new ones come in.
There are also rumors that some 'mercenaries' are actually managing the HIMARS and some Green Berets are stirring up 'guerrillas' in Russian occupied regions.
Brilliant interview of Scott Ritter with Russian ex FSB head,well worth a watch if you haven't already seen it.
Posted by: Kim | Aug 24 2022 18:41 utc | 14
@ b | Aug 24 2022 18:35 utc | 13 with response to my request for foreign fighter numbers....thanks.
Your sharing of rumors about "boots on the ground" brings up my ongoing question about the silence around these "boots on the ground". Why is Russia not making public some of the captured "boots on the ground"?
And then there is the seemingly associated silence about the biolabs so far.
Maybe this is just another "this is going to slow for me" feelings but it just doesn't look right to me.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 24 2022 18:47 utc | 15
Shaking my head in bewilderment, lookig at the enormous amount of material destroyed. The high number of fueldepots, ammo storage also reported by the Russian MoD. It does not stop: 6 months now High manpowerlosses.
Yet he Ukrainian troops keep moving over hundreds of KM. Giving stiff resistance in their Maginot line around Donbass. How is that possible, questions a non militairy observer.
Posted by: DutchZ | Aug 24 2022 18:47 utc | 16
guys! get used to the idea that russia is fucked in its smo in ukraine. not b/c nato and ukraine are that powerful but the army of russia has sooooo many problems internally. start talking about what realy is happening.
Posted by: Bon | Aug 24 2022 18:50 utc | 17
The Institute for the Study of War, at understanding war dot org, Aug 21, just doesn't get it.
"Russian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine are likely culminating although very small Russian advances will likely continue." . . here. . . but the Ukraine body-bag convoys are not static.
at ISW: Our Board Members
General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired), Chairman, Institute for the Study of War; President, GSI, LLC
Dr. Kimberly Kagan, Founder & President, Institute for the Study of War
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 24 2022 18:51 utc | 18
Retroactive continuity, or retcon for short, is a literary device in which established diegetic facts in the plot of a fictional work (those established through the narrative itself) are adjusted, ignored, supplemented, or contradicted by a subsequently published work which recontextualizes or breaks continuity with the former.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retroactive_continuity
Don't let facts ruin a beautiful story.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 24 2022 18:54 utc | 19
@Bon | Aug 24 2022 18:50 utc | 17
start talking about what really is happening.
Why don't you tell us what really is happening? . .b did . . .Cat got your tongue?
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 24 2022 18:55 utc | 20
Biden and Johnson and Stoltenberg cynically provoked this war to destroy Russia through sanctions (or so they hoped.) Now they want to keep the war going to the last Ukrainian to grind down Russia through attrition. In fact, it is Ukraine that is being destroyed day by day and the EU (especially Germany) facing imminent economic, financial, political and social collapse. The longer the war goes on, the worse it becomes for them. Russia can keep this up indefinitely, and it should. The aim should be to break the EU and NATO into a thousand pieces. See what happens when the well heeled, pampered burghers of Frankfurt and Munich are freezing in their unheated homes and offices, unable to put petrol in their slick Porsches and BMWs, buy food, or even take a shower. They are used to destroying the economies of poor and weak countries at no cost to themselves. Let's see if they are as good at taking it as they are at dishing it out. Russia and China and other sovereign nations have a golden opportunity to destroy their utterly vile, implacable, hate filled enemies. They should not squander it.
Posted by: paul | Aug 24 2022 18:55 utc | 21
psychohistorian | Aug 24 2022 18:47 utc | 15
The Russians have said that the Duma will make a "tough statement" tomorrow (The 25th. August)
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 24 2022 18:57 utc | 22
About "Non Combat casualties": Rumours about ukainian soldiers being killed for withdrawing, maybe are they included in that number?
Posted by: UncleTom | Aug 24 2022 18:59 utc | 23
Today two useless guys came to Kiev for the Ukraine independence day, BoJo and Duda. None of them has any power. BoJo actually had, but Duda is just a figurant, has the veto power at home, but can't use it as he wants/needs.
This is what Dmitry Medvedev posted yesterday.
The Kiev regime continues to invent for itself some kind of "security guarantees" for the future. Either they will hold meetings with individual insignificant neighbors chaired by forgotten retirees on this topic, then again they will remember about NATO.It is clear to everyone that no neighbors can give them any guarantees, even if they hate Russia fiercely. And now no one will accept Ukraine in NATO. In the Alliance, although there are Russophobes, they are not suicidal. And this is a direct result of a special military operation. Only an agreement with Russia could provide security guarantees. But the Ukrainian government, stimulated by Western money and missiles, refuses it.
So with guarantees it is very sour.
And the last. The Kyiv regime understands that it is for him (the current leader of Ukraine) that there are no security guarantees at all and cannot be. Even the United States will not offer guarantees of a bright future to Zelensky. It makes no sense. Now Joseph Robinette Biden & Sons is making money in Ukraine. This will be over soon. After all, Americans are inveterate egoists and work only for themselves. Therefore, the new team will not hesitate to merge the corruption Ukrainian theme into the toilet of history along with its figurants.
Posted by: rp | Aug 24 2022 19:11 utc | 24
Your hate-filled invective is not the Russian strategy. The strategy is to facilitate the initial deindustrialisation of the German state so that economic forces fracture the European Union and social forces threaten the U.S.-German relationship.
The most obvious manifestation of this will be a winter Deutchland with only half its traditional energy supply at 5-7 times the cost, industrial facilities ceasing production and laying off employees, citizens rationing available energy supplies, while American military bases are the most conspicuous users of that energy. This will occur year after year, until a generation raised in poverty seeks a way out.
Posted by: Pimlico | Aug 24 2022 19:12 utc | 25
The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the beginning of the special operation - more than 76 thousand people were killed.
The Secretary of the Security Council of Ukraine, Alexei Danilov, was informed about this not by anyone, but personally by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny in his response to ref. No. 220/1085 dated August 16, 2022. In addition to the 76,640 dead, there are more than 42,000 wounded, 7,244 captured, 2,816 missing, and 1,610 not due to the results of hostilities.
Knowing about the maniacal commitment of the Ukrainian military to embellish reality and the lack of accounting for personnel in units and subunits, it should be borne in mind that the numbers are significantly underestimated.
The main commander of Ukraine also said that he had no information about the dead from other law enforcement agencies.
This means that thousands of killed soldiers of the territorial defense, the National Guard, the Border Guard Service, the Security Service of Ukraine and other law enforcement agencies should be added to the 76 thousand killed military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Thus, the total number of those killed can be about 150 thousand people in uniform.
Posted by: afu losses | Aug 24 2022 19:12 utc | 26
They will adopt a tough statement tomorrow at
3pm Russian Time
That is 8 am Eastern Time
"The message from the State Duma Council will be addressed to the UN and all international parliamentary organizations."
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 24 2022 19:13 utc | 27
Donbass: who commands the Russian troops in Ukraine, and who opposes them from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Read on in Russian.
Posted by: rp | Aug 24 2022 19:13 utc | 28
The Ukrainian 'Peacekeeper' (Mirotvorets) hitlist website recently listed Darya Duginova as 'liquidated'. The website appears to be hosted on NATO servers in Brussels.
https://www.webpagetest.org/result/220824_BiDcQF_BSK/1/details/#waterfall_view_step1
Posted by: Arfur Mo | Aug 24 2022 19:14 utc | 29
@DutchZ Yet the Ukrainian troops keep moving over hundreds of KM. Giving stiff resistance in their Maginot line around Donbass. How is that possible, questions a non military observer
What you mean by 'keep moving'? Russia does not attack moving trains or 'civilian' vehicles moving troops. Ukraine is a big country so you can still move people from a to b. But once the (new) troops are at the front they are fixed by artillery and have little chance to leave.
The Maginot line is of reinforced concrete build up over 8 years. It can not be cracked bust be circumvented and attacked from the sides and the back.
New Ukrainian troops keep coming to hold the frontline where they inevitably get decimated until they are mostly destroyed and pull back.
'Demilitarization' by artillery with little Russian casualties.
These numbers are consistent with Russian military's daily 'clobber list' which reports of several hundreds Ukrainian casualties per day due to air strikes and well target ammunition.
Two pieces of fakery from the same people matching each other doesn't count as confirmation. Come on, engage the slightest bit of skepticism here. A KIA:WIA ratio that is **barely 0.5** is so ridiculous that it doesn't pass the giggle test.
Also absurd: that Ukraine was on the verge of signing over Novorossiya after kicking Russia out of the north but BoJo single-handedly put an end to it. The sticking point in reality for negotiations was Russia's unwillingness to drop its demand for demilitarization (a key stated war aim, the dropping of which would make Russia lose face), which would leave Ukraine unable to defend itself in the future.
Enough has been said about the "feint" fantasy already. It's a nice tale to tell to children, if you can find any credulous enough to buy it.
Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 24 2022 19:17 utc | 31
Yes I'd just like to add along with other who have already said, that you don't get enough credit for your excellent articles so well done and thank you for your endeavours.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2022 19:22 utc | 32
UncleTom | Aug 24 2022 18:59 utc | 23
One source of error is the seizing of proof of identity and then cashing in the regular salaries of Ukrainian soldiers, dead or alive. Unless they die in Hospitals, they may not be counted at all. Saves Pensions too. The Commanders (or at least some of them) are building up nice little nest-eggs, as this form of corruption is unquantifiable at the moment.
They are still counted as "living".
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 24 2022 19:22 utc | 33
The West is incompetent, reason has been replaced by ideology, which is why things don't go as planned at all. Russia's economy did not collapse, most of the world continues to trade with Russia, more than before even in the case of the heavyweights such as China and India. India is interesting because its trade boom with Russia prevents the West from attacking China on this issue. The hypocrisy would be too blatant.
Militarily Russia is doing well, too.
People in the West are gradually starting to wake up...
Any news on Syria? I heard there are increasing attacks on US occupied areas now...
If Assad allows or even asks for it, Russia could send hypersonic missiles and destroy those occupied lands, because the Americans are there illegally, invaders...
Posted by: Nico | Aug 24 2022 19:25 utc | 34
Russia's effective demilitarization of Ukrainian troops and NATO stockpiles will make it easier to conquer cities like Kharkov and Odessa down the road. Those cities will probably surrender. American advisors, I recall, kept sending Ukrainian troops into the fire sack instead of holding them back. They fell into the Russian artillery trap. Zelensky agreed for political reasons (not looking like he was losing ground), even though that is what happened.
The US Marine article by Marinus, quoted a few days back, gives the clearest understanding of the political and military dimensions of the Kiev feint.
Posted by: Ringo | Aug 24 2022 19:31 utc | 35
Dear MoA barflies,
What i was wondering recently - why haven't the Russians destroyed the Dnepr bridges north of say Zaparojie yet. I only remember hearing of one railroad bridge near Dnepropetrovsk that was damaged (or maybe destroyed) by rocket impact some time back.
I know, you might say, the Russians do in ernest try not to destroy civilian infrastructure unnessarily. Fair enough, nevertheless, a few destroyed bridges seem a rather small price, compared to the logistical havoc it would cause for the ukrainian forces.
any thoughts on that?
Posted by: Sternberg | Aug 24 2022 19:34 utc | 36
Zelensky doing a bit of sabre rattling today, claiming that Ukraine will be victorious and they will take back Crimea.
Of course Zelensky can quietly sneak away with his billion dollars to his new mansion in Miami whilst his people suffer at the hands of Nato.
"Six months after Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine, West-backed President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday said his country clamors for "victory, not peace", while vowing to take back Crimea from Russia.
Zelensky's comments came during the Independence Day address as Ukraine’s international allies lavished praise and announced new military packages.
“We will fight until the end,” he said in a recorded emotional speech to mark 31 years of Ukrainian independence from the Soviet rule, vowing that his country would not be making “any concession or compromise” to Russia.
“We don’t care what army you have, we only care about our land. We will fight for it until the end,” the embattled president added."
https://eprimefeed.com/latest-news/zelensky-found-a-billion-dollars-and-a-villa-in-miami/19891/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2022 19:34 utc | 37
This explains it all; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SLG-4cetz8
Posted by: Tard | Aug 24 2022 19:35 utc | 38
Good explanation from the channel, Slavyangrad a few weeks back.
"Ukraine’s troops strength before the war was around 250,000 men, the National Guard around 60,000 and, border guard around 40,000. As well as troops directly under the supervision of the State security service of Ukraine roughly estimated at 30,000. All in all, around 400,000 men. The land force of the Ukrainian army has been repeatedly mentioned before so I will not write about it here again. So, 400,000 men against roughly 120,000 Russian troops and around 35,000 (at best) fighters from DNR and LNR, giving us 150,000+ troops committed to the SMO. The ratio in favour of defenders was around 1:2.66. Now, when we look at the facts presented, let us address them.
People complain about why Russia does not send an entire army. Well, it does not need to. The available number of troops is working perfectly fine.
Claim – “Operation is too slow“. I would answer here with a counter-question. SO WHAT? I must remind everyone about that famous Putin speech before the beginning of the operation. He emphasized two terms that, I think, many people do not remember or took for granted, not paying much attention to them. They are Denazification and Demilitarization. Denazification is a complex problem, which will require lots of work after the SMO is finished. The first step of it, is the neutralization of most extreme representatives of nationalists, either by physical elimination or by capturing. The most radical ones are those who even before openly calling themselves Nazis, were members of the bottom of society, so the natural desire to promote themselves somehow is explainable. The next step would come later. To persuade, re-educate and show where their cultural identity lies. All Ukraine's self-called Ubermenchen. History doesn’t forgive mistakes and in the case of Ukraine’s Nazis, they will be treated according to historical tradition. Battlefield defeat will prove to those self-deluded individuals that their assessment of their capabilities and their “superiority” are just empty words. A much bigger challenge for Russia will be saving young generations of Ukrainians from the malign influence of their society and ruling elite. Why were their so-called elites spared from our wrath until now? We need them to sign the capitulation. No ceasefire, no peace treaty; but capitulation. We will get it in one way or the other.
Demilitarization is an unavoidable part of the first question “why Russia doesn’t send an entire army?” – Because I repeat, it does not need to. Translation of the term demilitarization is – be killed or be captured. The choice is up to you - Russia is using so-called “crawling” tactics, moving slowly, avoiding unnecessary casualties, while at the same time inflicting enormous casualties on Ukrainian troops. I will leave you to remind yourself how many waves of mobilization Ukraine has had so far. Now, mobilization is constant. They are throwing everything they have at the front lines. We then empty those lines quickly. So, they send again; the process is repeating itself non–stop. At the same time, we have managed to destroy approximately 60-70 percent of their military equipment, despite the help from the West. They do not have a rear, as such, anymore because they are painfully aware that we can hit them anytime, anywhere, at our leisure. This puts them under tremendous psychological pressure. We are practically almost begging them to face us in battle. Whenever they decide to do that, it finishes with a meat grinder for them, thus advancing the progress of SMO further. Our tactics have only one strategic goal to fulfill; to make their resistance useless or pointless. The people who see negatives all the time, the so-called “Doomers”, are proclaiming that the war is lost. That eternal shame and disgrace fall on our Motherland for the way we are running things in Ukraine."
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 24 2022 19:36 utc | 39
Yep, I keep seeing articles stating flatly that Ukraine is on the road to victory and Russia screwed up. I don't bother to read more than a few sentences to get the gist before moving on. And if you want to see the effects of this non-stop propaganda, try perusing the reader comments section in any NYT article on the Ukraine war. It is almost as sad as all the Ukrainian soldiers being slaughtered to no purpose.
Posted by: rob | Aug 24 2022 19:37 utc | 40
…. Giving stiff resistance in their Maginot line around Donbass. How is that possible, questions a non militairy observer…..
Well fortified positions can be held by poorly trained demoralized soldiers outnumbered 10:1 for a surprisingly long time.
For some parallels - examine the Cherbourg and Brest sieges after June 1944. not precisely the same situation but illuminating all the same.
Posted by: Exile | Aug 24 2022 19:39 utc | 41
Crimea is rightfully Russian.
There is an interesting article on a Dutch site which lists all the events before the 2014 coup. Turns out, Ukraine itself annexed Crimea in 1995, toppled the Crimean government etc.
Crimea became independent of the USSR half a year before Ukraine, which also confirms that it was separate from Ukraine. I mean, could California leave Nato if the US doesn't?
Posted by: Nico | Aug 24 2022 19:41 utc | 42
Clearly a lot of good remarks about the war and western misconceptions. But are we any closer to seeing a way out? I don't think so.
A country as big and populous as Ukraine, unwaveringly supported by NATO, will never be "demilitarized" or "denazified". Russia is permitting an endless stream of heavy weapons to reach Ukraine's frontline units. Sure, those weapons get destroyed, preventing Ukraine from making any gains. But neither is Russia getting any closer to neutralizing Ukraine in the process. The weapons will keep coming. This can go on for 10 years. And yes, Russia has killed 10,000s of Ukrainian soldiers and she can keep doing so. But like I said, Ukraine being so big and populous, it has several 10,000 young men reaching military age each year. Those will simply be sent to the frontlines. Ukraine's leadership being so derangedly determined, that's exactly what they're going to do, without batting an eye. So trenches will get re-manned over and over again. This, too, can go on for years. But how is this in Russia's interest? What's the achievement there?
Sure, it will bleed Ukraine dry - but it won't keep NATO out or make Ukraine any more agreeable. If the Russians don't get their act together, NATO might just decide to actually move in openly, with boots on the ground plus the stuff that only needs 10 minutes through the sky to reach Moscow. They will create obstacles, trip-wires, just like the US did at Al-Tanf and like the Turks did with their watch towers all around Idlib. It will be game over for Russia then. I'm sure the Russian generals are well aware of this. It's the civilians - Putin and those who follow him without ever questioning anything - who have fucked up this business from the beginning. But maybe Shitensky will die from a heart attack, thereby solving the Ukrainian problem for Russia, who knows.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Aug 24 2022 19:42 utc | 43
The thieving magpie press gets it wrong. Of course it does, funded by birdbrains, written by birdbrains.
Now Dima brings us the good news every day:
https://rumble.com/v1h6zrv-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-24.08.2022.html
A very interesting post today.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 24 2022 19:43 utc | 44
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 24 2022 19:22 utc | 33
heh, Shrodinger's soldiers.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 24 2022 19:43 utc | 45
Almost all American political debate follows this same pattern.
The propaganda begins with assumptions about what the other side intends to do. For example, they want to take your guns. They want to bring back slavery. Trying to pick examples from each side.
Then, the main argument proceeds not as an argument against real opponents, but as an argument against the fake opponents that were introduced in the beginning of the argument.
This describes almost the entire content of 'channels' like FOX or MSNBC. So, I am not surprised that the same phony techniques are used to try to convince the population that Global Nuclear War is really grand and that we should all enjoy our massive 'real' pay cuts in the name of Freedumb while of course the corporations and the oligarchs get richer and richer and richer.
Posted by: Moonshine Hillbilly | Aug 24 2022 19:47 utc | 46
If USA is tough enough, then send US troops to Ukraine to fight the Russian army. The US army is brave and tough to fight the sandal-clad soldiers and goat-herders, but even there it gets kicked out seriously. The US is not brave enough to fight a small country, North Korea, because it has nukes, and rockets to smash any place in the US. BoJo and the British army? They can play Cricket, or maybe golf.
Posted by: rp | Aug 24 2022 19:48 utc | 47
William Schryver weighs in......
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/08/19/russias-d..
"Unlike the Whore Western Media William Schryver Provides the Accurate Picture of Russia’s Destruction of the Western-trained Ukraine Military:
The “Demilitarization” of Ukraine has been precisely the Russian mentality in Ukraine. Their foremost objective, from the very beginning, as explicitly articulated by President Vladimir Putin in his historic speech of February 24, 2022, was to “demilitarize” Ukraine – to destroy its army.
When the war began, the most capable, experienced, well-armed, and well-positioned Ukrainian forces were NOT in Kiev, but in the Donbass and Mariupol. They had been positioning there for months, with the ultimate objective of retaking the Donbass and Crimea – a goal never far from the minds of Ukraine’s ideological and political leaders.
Indeed, they spoke of it openly and without qualification. They strongly believed the strength of their armed forces, after eight years of preparation, had reached a point where it was capable of actually achieving that objective.
Their benefactors in NATO encouraged them to believe this – for it was also NATO’s fondest dream to raise its banners over the naval base at Sevastopol, and thereby wield dominance over the entire Black Sea and the Bosporus.
Pursuant to this and many other geostrategic objectives – arresting Russian resurgence foremost among them – NATO had been providing arms to Ukraine for years, and those arms shipments were expanded and accelerated dramatically in late 2021.
Tens of thousands Ukrainian troops had been trained in the use of these NATO armaments. And, as was known to anybody paying even casual attention, thousands of western intelligence operatives, special forces, and mercenary contractors (predominantly American, British, and French – and lots of them) were embedded with front-line Ukrainian forces, where several have since been killed or captured, and a substantial contingent still remains.
Many of these western troops are there primarily to coordinate the reception, interpretation, and “actionable” use of highly prized and even more highly classified US/NATO “ISR” (Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance) data.
The Mother of All Proxy Armies
The army the US/NATO built in Ukraine, by the beginning of 2022, had swelled to become the largest and best-armed land force in Europe. By almost every metric, it was more potent than the combined armies of Germany, France, and Italy.
The Ukrainian military was purpose-built to serve the interests of the American Empire in its long-established goal to cripple Russia and prevent it from ever again being able to wield global influence; to effect its ultimate dismemberment and reduce it to a faint fragment of its former status and glory – to realize the geopolitical objective expressed in the popular cold-war-era board game RISK, which erased Russia from the world map.
The Russian decision to invade Ukraine in late February 2022 was motivated by and predicated upon all of these factors in aggregate, and was hastened by the widespread Ukrainian artillery strikes on the Donbass region that had commenced weeks previously.
To destroy this powerful “Mother of All Proxy Armies” which the United States and its NATO partners had methodically constructed on its borders was, logically and manifestly, Russia’s foremost objective.
There was no other.
The elimination of this substantial threat on their literal doorstep was understandably viewed by the Russians as an existential imperative.
Destroying the Mother of All Proxy Armies
And, in order to best achieve that objective, they effected a classic Russian stratagem to impede the possibility of the forces in northern Ukraine from reinforcing those in eastern and southern Ukraine once the fighting began.
THIS is why they conducted the elaborate “feint and fix” operation in and around Kiev.
And, all things considered, it worked perfectly.
That said, it is essential to understand that the greatest and most effective feints must be convincing. And, to be convincing, they very often risk being costly. The best feints are based on a cost/benefit analysis whose “benefit” often represents the foremost objective of a war.
In the case of the feint and fix operation in Kiev, there was a substantial cost – although it was not nearly as costly as western war propagandists have sought to portray it. This is because much of the feint consisted of demonstrations of intent, rather than concrete actions.
For example, after achieving air dominance in the first few days of the war, the Russians assembled a huge armored column, and casually drove it down the main highway from the north towards Kiev. Then they essentially just parked it there for many days, occasionally pretending to be heading in one direction or another, before eventually pulling back to their own borders, and sweeping around to join the forces preparing to launch the main offensive in the Donbass.
Everything it did north of Kiev was all for show. They didn’t break down; their troops didn’t run away; they didn’t run out of gas. It was just a big “feint-in-force”.
Even Belarus assisted in the theatrics by assembling troops and vehicles, moving them around aggressively just across the border from Ukraine, and making veiled threats to join the Russian assault on Kiev – which, of course, they never did, because no such assault was ever envisioned. And these aggressive Belarusian demonstrations ceased once the Russians concluded the feint operation and moved their forces to the southeast.
The result of this feint operation was that, over the course of several weeks, the Russians effectively “fixed” over 100,000 Ukrainian troops and their equipment in the vicinity of Kiev, took control of key transportation nodes and corridors between Kiev and the Donbass, and simultaneously conducted a major offensive to encircle and annihilate the 20,000-strong Ukrainian army group in Mariupol, a highly strategic port city on the coast of the Sea of Azov.
The forces in Mariupol included the notorious neo-Nazi “Azov Battalion”, whose arming and training had long been a US/NATO priority, and they were considered to be one of the most formidable components of the Ukrainian army.
The forces in Mariupol also included many dozens of NATO “advisors” (CIA, special forces, and so-called “contractors”). Also present were ~2500 foreign mercenaries, most of them NATO veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
While potential reinforcements remained idle and immobile in and around Kiev, the powerful force in Mariupol was methodically surrounded and systematically annihilated in an operation I am confident will be studied in war colleges for generations as one of the most impressive prosecutions of urban warfare ever executed.
The Russians completely reversed the generally accepted casualty ratio between attacker and defender, and did so against an enemy shielded within massive and complex fortifications it had prepared for years inside the sprawling Azovstal steel plant.
While all of this was taking place, Russian forces and their allies from the Donetsk and Lugansk republics engaged in “shaping the battlefield” in the Donbass region in anticipation of the next and most important stage of the war.
Bear in mind, the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass had spent eight long years building an elaborate series of hardened fortifications in the region with the objective of resisting a Russian attack and inflicting severe damage upon them when they did.
Of course, the Russians knew all this, and they clearly planned out a course of action designed to overcome the advantages that accrued to the Ukrainians as a result of their fortifications and their reprehensible tactics of using civilians and their dwellings as shields.
As matters stand here in early July, it is now incontrovertible that the Russian operation in the Donbass has been an overwhelming victory. It is, in my estimation, the most impressive management of a quasi-urban battlefield in modern history. The original force, consisting of over 60,000 of the best-trained and best-equipped soldiers in the Ukrainian army, has been effectively destroyed. It has suffered catastrophic losses of its experienced, NATO-trained professional cadres. Its massive losses of personnel have been partially replenished by poorly trained territorial militia troops, but its even more massive losses of heavy weaponry cannot be replenished.
I described the Russian strategy and tactics in a previous post:
Here is a brief summation of the Russian tactical approach to the Battle of the Donbass:
Step #1: Advance reconnaissance units (often in force, with dozens or hundreds of drones overhead) to assess the situation; draw fire; relay to commanders raw video and geo-coordinates.
Step #2: With target-correcting drone swarms overhead, relaying real-time strike video, proceed to savage the fortifications with towed and mobile artillery, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (in gradations of strength and precision), and even horrific thermobaric munitions for particularly suitable targets.
Let smoke clear.
Repeat Step #1.
Still something moving there?
Repeat Step #2.
Repeat Step #1.
Dead bodies everywhere?
Step #3: Send in tanks and infantry to mop up.
Move to next series of fortifications.
And so on and so forth …
This is why Ukraine now suffers hundreds of battle deaths every single day. And why, for months, the Russians have suffered very few casualties – at least a 1 to 10 ratio – and quite likely much lower.
The artillery (with occasional air and precision missile strikes) is doing all the fighting.
The Russian objective was NEVER to “take Kiev”. I’ve heard all the arguments and rationalizations to the contrary. They are demonstrably fallacious. The foremost Russian objective was ALWAYS to destroy the Ukrainian army, the most potent groupings of which were positioned in the Donbass and in Mariupol. And they have done so COMPREHENSIVELY.
I am likewise persuaded that “demilitarization” will continue to be the Russian objective in Ukraine until the Ukrainians beg to surrender, accepting whatever terms the Russians propose.
Only then will the disposition of territory be decided once and for all, and if the map includes at all a toponym for a sovereign Ukraine, it will likely look somewhat like this:
We can only hope desperate #EmpireAtAllCosts fanatics in London and Washington don’t commit a fatal blunder in their futile attempts to retain hegemony in the face of a resurgent multipolar world.
At the beginning of the SMO, Ukraine had the largest and best equipped army in Europe with the exception of Russia & Belarus. It was larger than the combined French/German armies.
Today, the Ukrainian army is a shambles. That is 6 months to reduce the largest army in Western Europe to volksturm equipped with rifles.
NATO is now sending it's reserve stocks of weapons to Ukraine so the Russians can destroy them. This expressly includes the USA.
You can't make this stuff up!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 24 2022 19:48 utc | 48
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Aug 24 2022 19:42 utc | 44
i question a number of your assumptions. Ukraine isn't relatively as powerful as Japan and Germany were before world war 2. the stream of weapons is not endless, nor is the stream of young Ukrainians (or geriatric Ukrainians) willing to die for no purpose. they will just leave, as millions of Ukrainians already have. Russia continues to grind up the Ukrainian opposition, according to its own timetable. NATO doesn't want boots on the ground, even a pack of yapping poodles has a breaking point, it just wants to continue to feed Ukrainians into the maw as long as it can to bleed Russia, risk free. but it isn't a risk free operation, as Putin as pointed out.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 24 2022 19:49 utc | 49
Thanks for the brain work b.
I've been following this blog for more years than I like to think of and commenting too. What interests me is politics, I know very little about military matters which is one reason I come here, where so many experts contribute.
Still, politics is what this is all about. NATO has been trying to trap Russia and that is what is continues to do- it is no accident that the NATO trolls who amuse us so much are constantly questioning Russia's restraint. They almost demand that Russia commit more forces and advance more quickly.
But the Russians know that the real struggle here is not the one in which the poor bloody infantry die or become maimed for life, in the borderlands of the Black Sea but a wider contest in which the world learns that the Empire, which has left its bloody claw marks everywhere and whose long career of rape, plunder and massacre has been going on, without any let up, for centuries, can no longer get what it wants.
It is this simple but almost incredible fact which has dawned over the past few years, in Syria, most notably and, before that in Georgia.
And the leaders of every former colony or possession, protectorate or client state- for most of whom Rule #1 in politics was always 'Do what the White Man in Washington says. Or prepare for a very bumpy ride'- have been watching with almost childlike awe as Moscow has demonstrated not just that the Empire is weak but that its weakness lies in its supposed strengths.
NATO is the perfect example of a coalition which has developed- what Frederick prayed for- 'one neck'. A neck which Russia is slowly and publicly strangling.
One of the most interesting aspects of the past six months has been the precipitate haste with which every one of Europe's neutrals, from Ireland and Sweden to Finland and Switzerland has rushed to make sure that its necks too are included in the strangling. Sad to say there is nothing mysterious about this: the power of the US Empire has long been directed at homogenising its allies- setting a Tony Blair at the head of every government it could. A Blair in Taiwan. Another Blair in Holland, Spain. And many of them are female, like Sturgeon in Scotland and the giggling Nordic gringophiles.
It is an old story-hubris. The Empire has forgotten that it holds power through threats and bribes and come to believe that it is admired, even loved. And its euroclones, from Stoltenberg to Boris to the new generation, many of whom were actually selected and trained in the the US. The cool and cuddly replacements for the Suhartos and Pinochets of yesteryear.
Hence its touching belief that the world will follow its 'woke' agenda, not to demonstrate its prostration and fealty but because if Boston and Biden are agreed it must be right. And up to date. And necessary for people who want to grow rich. And be like Hunter Biden.
The truth is that Washington has no idea what Russia, or China, or the growing number of states beginning to emulate their independence and sovereignty, applying for membership in Brics or the SCO, or, as in Mali, kicking out the neo-colonials in the knowledge that they are proofed against coups, terrorism and invasions... has no idea what is going to happen next.
Nor do I but I suspect that the final act of this production 'The End of Empire' will be set in lands closer to north America where the audience to the happy ending, in which the tyrant is humbled, will be those who have waited since the meaning of the Monroe Doctrine became evident, patient in the certainty that the bullying, stealing, disrespect could not last forever.
Nothing could be more appropriate for the Empire to be drowned in the Caribbean off the coast of Haiti.
In the meantime Russia knows that its main task is simply to survive the increasingly feeble blows that the Empire directs at it. And the hardest part is going to be doing this while holding its nose as NATO reaches deeper into the sewers for its tricks- saboteurs in Russia, assassins, shelling of power stations, blowing up hydro power dams. All will do damage but none will amount to more than pinpricks, while some will only disgust the world. And all will make clear what no amount of MSM propaganda can obscure that the governments of the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine are fascists of the worst kind, because unlike their predecessors of the thirties they cannot even claim to be patriotic or nationalistic, being merely limp tools in the hands of the lunatics running the Empire.
Posted by: bevin | Aug 24 2022 19:51 utc | 50
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington
The answer to your questions is a very simple one.
There will be no Ukraine remaining that is not managed by Russia.
End of Story.
Posted by: Kim | Aug 24 2022 19:51 utc | 51
Yesterday was the virtual meeting of the Crimea Platform with #zelensky’s wet dream …
From history of the Ottoman Empire and Turkic people the Tatars, Erdogan made some pleasant statements for UA’s NATO backers.
Erdogan: Return of Crimea to Ukraine a requirement under international law
https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/erdogan-return-of-crimea-to-ukraine-a-requirement-under-international-law-60053
Posted by: Oui | Aug 24 2022 19:53 utc | 52
@ Stonebird | Aug 24 2022 19:13 utc | 27
"The message from the State Duma Council will be addressed to the UN and all international parliamentary organizations."
The State Duma is one of the chambers of the Russian parliament, the Federal Assembly. It is a legislative authority that consists of 450 members elected for five years.
But but but. . .Biden on several occasions has called Putin a dictator, a murderous dictator who commits genocide. . .how can that be?
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 24 2022 19:55 utc | 53
I think the Green Nazis in Germany and other places thought that if they destroy Russia, they can force the global collapse of industry. They thought that their UCM's would strangle the world economy and that would enable them to do the great reset.
But what happens instead is that much of the world does simply not participate and even uses this opportunity to get cheap energy from Russia, facilitating the economic development of those countries, at the expense of the West.
The only one that will lose with all this is Europe, because Europeans were the only ones stupid enough to actually believe the Agenda 2030 and all that WEF crap.
Posted by: Nico | Aug 24 2022 19:56 utc | 54
I described the Russian strategy and tactics in a previous post:...
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 24 2022 19:48 utc | 49
How do you know about the Russian strategy? You are not even a Russian.
Posted by: rp | Aug 24 2022 19:56 utc | 55
Nico (42).
It goes further back than that, the UK has been training Ukrainian troops pre the Maidan to my great shame and embarrassment a Scottish regiment (4 Scots) helped greatly.
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/08/12/britains-military-russia-ukraine/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2022 20:05 utc | 56
Gazprom informs,
Moldovagaz did not fulfill its contractual obligations to Gazprom to pay an advance payment for gas supplies in August 2022.In this regard, Moldovagaz turned to Gazprom with a request to postpone the advance payment until September 1, 2022.
Gazprom has decided to exceptionally agree with this request.
Lately, Moldova had been quite anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian. What happens, if Moldova can't pay for gas for August by 1st September?
Posted by: rp | Aug 24 2022 20:06 utc | 57
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2022 19:22 utc | 32
Same here, it’s a great post.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 24 2022 20:07 utc | 58
Zelensky's comments came during the Independence Day address as Ukraine’s international allies lavished praise and announced new military packages.“We will fight until the end,” he said in a recorded emotional speech to mark 31 years of Ukrainian independence from the Soviet rule, vowing that his country would not be making “any concession or compromise” to Russia.
“We don’t care what army you have, we only care about our land. We will fight for it until the end,” the embattled president added."
We only care about our land!! The preposterous lying dog - after selling off the 'nations' land to every oligarch and global corporation with a fist full of dollars and a few dollars more for the big man.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 24 2022 20:08 utc | 59
Poorly Run Campaign.
Clearly Biden/Blinken/Scholz/Macron/Von der Leyen/StoltenTURD/Nudelman-Khagan were hoping to Isolate and Collapse TEAM_Putin in Moscow via Sanctions, Trade Boycotts, and Reserve Currency Confiscations.
The Shit4Brains thought they can recreate a rendition of PRK, IRN, VEN in RUS.
The War was a losing proposition from the GitGo - based on Missiles+Ground Forces. Someone thought ZATOCEANIA can establish a "No Fly Zone"
- Against RUS
- Next to RUS
Not very smart.
Posted by: IronForge | Aug 24 2022 20:18 utc | 60
As to the Russian casualties, the pro western Russian internet medium Mediazona reported 5,185 Russian casualties until end of July https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng . The figures are fairly trustworthy despite the shady source. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the highest per week casualties occurred in the first 3 weeks of the conflict, with over 300 killed each week. From then, the numbers were constantly falling on average, down to 28 in the week starting July 14. Similar figures, just bit more up to date, come from the "istories" resource, https://istories.media/reportages/2022/05/16/voina-v-tsifrakh/ , dubbed "Russia’s newest investigative organization" by medium.com, in other words, new western services outlet and mouthpiece. They report 5,256 casualties by August 19 in a later update.
Though both reports claim that "the real figures are certainly much higher", it is hard to see how they could. The death of a soldier is nothing less than secret. It is reported to the relatives and home settlement quite fast, burials or other (e.g. in case of irretrievable remains) mourning ceremonies are public events reflected in local and regional media as well as in social media and other internet resources. The "investigative organizations", certainly with much help of their western services workers, had only to collect and summarize these informations. Of course, the latest figures will always be incomplete.
It is somewhat understandable that the military does not like to publish casualty figures, yet I doubt that it is any sensible. It only feeds blatant nonsense like the "70,000 fallen Russian soldiers" by the Pentagon. Not that they themselves would believe it, but for the stupid media it is always ok.
Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 24 2022 20:23 utc | 61
Zely is reading his lines received with the daily email. Is nato's "our".
Btw, today was a very full day in missiles, all over Ukr. I think Bojo liked it.
Posted by: rk | Aug 24 2022 20:29 utc | 62
Re: Green nazi’s have their very own “Rasputin” to destroy Russia, a fossil fuel country, for green transition … supply of coal, America’s fracking fuels, Canada’s Nova Scotia fracking.
Ralf Fücks, co-founder of the Center for Liberal Modernity
Russia must be defeated, demand top politicians in Berlin. According to Green Party thinker Ralf Fücks, anyone who doesn't see no alternative to the war against the alleged Hitler reborn #Putin is a "subjugation pacifist". A reply.
Posted by: Oui | Aug 24 2022 20:31 utc | 63
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 24 2022 18:23 utc | 8
Mercenary soldiers seem to have become a permanent (and global) normality. I suspect their use has to do mostly with the idea of "plausible deniability" - Governments can say - 'We are not responsible for what they do. They are private actors'. Kind of like the East India Corporations ? Mercenaries were not really a part of warfare it seems (legally)until after the US's Vietnam war, when the "draft" became a negative, (They are not forced to fight) - "war budgets" became more secret (We didn't pay them). And lawyers began to control foreign policy? Just guessing. All "wars" seem to be a based on who can pay, rather than who actually gives the OK? Kinda' sounds like the way Oligarchy is supposed to work?
Posted by: Jim Elliot | Aug 24 2022 20:31 utc | 64
aquadraht | Aug 24 2022 20:23 utc | 62
for the stupid media it is always ok.
The media is not stupid, it is driven to support the US with false perceptions. And this goes back aways.
Dan Rather, an iconic US journalist: "Look I'm an American. I never tried to kid anybody that I'm some internationalist or something. And when my country is at war, I want my country to win, whatever the definition of 'win' might be. Now, I can't and don't argue that that is coverage without prejudice. About that I am prejudiced." So Dan brought us through the criminal war against Vietnam and the Nixon presidency. -- from Norman Solomon's "War Made Easy" -- How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 24 2022 20:35 utc | 65
“We don’t care what army you have, we only care about our land. We will fight for it until the end,” the embattled president added"
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2022 19:34 utc | 37
So why'd the Ukrainian government sell off huge tracts of agricultural land prior to the war.
I'm keen to know.
Posted by: Jpc | Aug 24 2022 20:40 utc | 66
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 24 2022 20:35 utc | 66
"You furnish the pictures and I'll furnish the war"--William Randolph Hearst allegedly. that was before photoshop, now there's no need to furnish the media with pictures.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 24 2022 20:45 utc | 67
Seems to me the cessation of territory held by the PRM would be more than adequate compensation.
Posted by: Bubilla | Aug 24 2022 20:45 utc | 68
Don Bacon | Aug 24 2022 19:55 utc | 54
"Biden on several occasions has called Putin a dictator, a murderous dictator who commits genocide. . .how can that be?"
**
"Real dictators wear hats, with wide brims and a close fitting uniform with shiny boots. Nowadays, after eating fast foods, there are very few that can still get in a uniform at all. So Putin must be a dictator as he can take his shirt off without looking like Bojo". Joe Tzu.
****
On the other hand Zelensky will never become a full-time Dictator, even though he tries very, very hard. A short-term shorty is not an inspiring figure, even in a green T-shirt.
I just wonder how long it will be before someone decides "that is enough"?
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 24 2022 20:50 utc | 69
Defense One reports new spending for Ukraine and says that the US' Defense Spending for 2022 will reach $1 Trillion
US Details Its Biggest Ukraine Arms Package Yet
Posted by: Laura Roslin | Aug 24 2022 20:52 utc | 70
@Posted by: Arfur Mo | Aug 24 2022 19:14 utc | 29
In an interview yesterday with Mark Sleboda by The Greyzone, they showed how in the upper right corner of the Myrotvorets kill list website front page it is said iti s located in Langley ( VA )....
Thus, this is a CIA´s kill list...what we already knew would happen since the first moments of the Maidan coup...as happened previously in Latin America and other parts of the globe.
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Aug 24 2022 20:54 utc | 71
@Scotch Bingeington | Aug 24 2022 19:42 utc | 44
While pretzelattack already made some good points, commenting
A country as big and populous as Ukraine, unwaveringly supported by NATO, will never be "demilitarized" or "denazified". Russia is permitting an endless stream of heavy weapons to reach Ukraine's frontline units. Sure, those weapons get destroyed, preventing Ukraine from making any gains. But neither is Russia getting any closer to neutralizing Ukraine in the process. The weapons will keep coming. This can go on for 10 years. And yes, Russia has killed 10,000s of Ukrainian soldiers and she can keep doing so. But like I said, Ukraine being so big and populous, it has several 10,000 young men reaching military age each year.
A lot of misconceptions. Ukraine is big, sure, but populous?
When splitting off the USSR, Ukraine had 56 million inhabitants. By official numbers in April, 2020, there were 41 million left. And most probably, a considerable part thereof had not seen Ukraine for years, and did not intend to. And reality was even worse. As David Goldman wrote in January https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/ukraine-is-the-hollow-man-of-europe/
Ukraine is disappearing, for two reasons. It has one of the world’s lowest birth rates at just 1.23 children per female, and one of the world’s highest rates of out-migration. No other country has willed itself out of existence so decisively.
.. Ukrainians vote with their feet. Nine million have work abroad, according to the National Security and Defense Council of the Ukraine, and 3.2 million have full-time jobs in other countries. There are only 21 million Ukrainians between the ages of 20 and 55, which suggests that more than two-fifths of prime working-age Ukrainians earn their living elsewhere.
That was before the war. And mind that the 41 million include 3m Crimeans, and 6.4m Donbass habitants. Nowadays, something between 6 and 12m have left the country, over 4 million towards Russia. And since April 2020, when the 41m were posted, yearly emigration was 1.2m and rising. As to the "several 10,000 young men reaching military age each year" parents are already hiding their sons reaching age 18, sending them abroad, often under the pretext of studying, families sacrifice their savings for the bribes needed.
And many of the newborn will be born abroad, the youngsters reaching military age abroad, as mainly women with their children left, adult men are officially prohibited to leave (which makes it costly).
As to the flood of arms, the west widely lacks the resources for a production battle. See https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare . Just recently a military source conceded that the bloated weapon and ammo shipments Biden just promised may take up to 2-3 years to complete.
While I remain cautious, I do not see that Ukraine can sustain the war very long. The winter will become an additional challenge.
Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 24 2022 21:00 utc | 72
Posted by: Oui | Aug 24 2022 20:31 utc | 64
Russia scientists, and Russia, recognize the danger of human caused climate change. from what I understand the Green Party in Germany has been taken over by neoliberals, who are far from "anti industry". they are anti Russian industry no doubt, but that has nothing with some farcical plot by the world's financial elites to destroy the system that keeps them elite. and by the way, the fossil fuel companies are elites. Putin is a good and realistic leader. he has no need or desire to support this propaganda campaign to pretend global warming doesn't exist. the US fossil fuel industry is fully on board with regime change operations in Russia, because they will profit from it. show me one statement from a fossil fuel executive or pr firm that opposes the US and NATO's Ukraine operation.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 24 2022 21:04 utc | 73
@Oui | Aug 24 2022 20:31 utc | 64
Fücks is not a thinker, but a stinker, warmonger and fascist.
Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 24 2022 21:06 utc | 74
It is amazing that the ukrops do not simply turn the other direction while aiming their rifles.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 24 2022 18:34 utc | 12
I suspect that if a front-line Ukraine infantry soldier did turn in the others direction, an Azov bullet would greet him before he could pull the trigger. I am sure that a revolt by the AFU conscripted forces is their worst nightmare. What say you?
Posted by: Guernica | Aug 24 2022 21:07 utc | 75
Not very smart.
Posted by: IronForge | Aug 24 2022 20:18 utc | 61
The planners for Ukraine seem to have bet everything on the Russians deciding to break themselves of those fortifications they have built up there in the Donbass (once the Russians invaded and their own attack was aborted by the feint). I don't think there was any plan B. So they just keep feeding men and material into those fortifications and trying to make as many provocations as they can to anger the Russians.
It is indeed not very smart.
Posted by: Bemildred | Aug 24 2022 21:10 utc | 76
CC:
It is reported that Canada has agreed to give Germany 5 turbines for Nord Stream, bypassing the sanctions previously imposed by Canada and Germany against Nord Stream.
Russia had previously refused to take one of the turbines, despite Scholz's hysterical statements that there was no reason not to take it from Germany.
Gazprom openly mocked Scholz, saying that since sanctions, then the turbine cannot be taken away because of this.
It must be understood that the same fate awaits these 5 (turbines).
Posted by: CCsaid | Aug 24 2022 21:13 utc | 77
UkrArmy alone had 76K KIA as on 01 July.
Interesting is that the report itself is dated 16 Aug. Either UkrArmy does not have any newer totalled data, or Kiev regime was requesting old, historic figure (the preamble suggest the latter).
Posted by: Arioch | Aug 24 2022 21:15 utc | 78
Dan Rather, an iconic US journalist: "Look I'm an American. I never tried to kid anybody that I'm some internationalist or something. And when my country is at war, I want my country to win, whatever the definition of 'win' might be. Now, I can't and don't argue that that is coverage without prejudice...."
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 24 2022 20:35 utc | 66
I am sure that a lot of Nazi "journalist" said the very same thing, but the Western press did not call them journalists, they called them propagandist.
Posted by: Guernica | Aug 24 2022 21:17 utc | 79
@CCsaid | Aug 24 2022 21:13 utc | 78
Gazprom may be slightly mischievous towards "partners" who seize their assets and break long term contracts, but they also have a point. The maintenance contract is not served when the turbine is not shipped from Siemens Energy Canada to Russia. To make the "alternative path" valid, Canada, the EU, the UK, and Germany would have to declare an exception for these turbines being exempt from sanctions. Certainly that is the right way to deal with scammers, thieves, and contract breakers.
Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 24 2022 21:21 utc | 80
I haven't yet read comments (so far there are 50 so that will take a while) but was remembering some of the drama in the sequence of events, the military that would begin the special operation was already converging north of Ukraine with Belarus forces, and it sent that dramatic long flow of equipment and personell down the highway to the outskirts of Kiev. The Ukranian army had been actively increasing the shelling of Donbass,(b was already showing us maps of how that shelling was becoming much more intense in the final days beforehand) and there were some predictions a further push against Donbass was coming so Russia was being enticed in. But the Russians made that pre-emptive move from the north.
So, sure, Kiev stalled for time and was duplicit, but as well, Russia would have considered and even perhaps been happy with that outcome. Because now they could start, with all that equipment and machinery, to entrap the Ukrainian army where they were dug in, from behind, a far better option than simply destroying Kiev, when perhaps the so-called government was already over in Lvov, dug in. Also, in Mariupol those bigwigs in that mysterious center of operations would have felt safe behind the concrete trenches had the attack been against the 'front line'. Which it was not, and they were not. And it did seem later that the Russians homed in on the attempted new gathering of such 'bigwigs in waiting', so they were never reluctant to take out those who were, or potentially were, controlling operations. It just wasn't Kiev, and the Russians knew that.
Well, I could just be stating the obvious, or completely wrong, not being a military expert - apologies if so.
Posted by: juliania | Aug 24 2022 21:24 utc | 81
There are no... tracked vehicles that could take the wounded out.
That is really weird to read.
Remember the photoes of multiple destroyed "Russian tanks" that ended mostly being Ukrainian APCs, at a river bow. One of the key giveaways then was a very distinct shape of UkrArmy-exclusive medevac derivative of MTLB old Soviet design.
One can argue if UkrArmy has enough of them or not, but they certainly do exists, Ukraine went as far as even to produce their unique domestic design of it (built on top of their massive inherited Soviet stocks, of course)
https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-unveils-new-mt-lbs-armored-medical-evacuation-vehicle/?amp
Posted by: Arioch | Aug 24 2022 21:29 utc | 82
This is great reporting b. Thank you, it ought to be widely read. I'll post the link on twitter and try to get it circulated—it's the only straight talk on this stupid war going around.
Posted by: Patroklos | Aug 24 2022 21:31 utc | 83
@18, Don Bacon, re: ISW, Instit. for Study of War, a Kimberley Kagan outfit. As you may know, Ms. Kagan is part of the Kagan family business of perpetual US taxpayer funded war. 3/20/2015, “A Family Business of Perpetual War,” Robert Parry.
Ms. Kagan is wife of Fred Kagan who is brother of Robert Kagan who is married to Victoria Nuland. Mr. Parry reports it's not just Nuland and Robert: "There will be plenty of money to be made by other neocon think-tankers all around Washington, including Frederick Kagan, who works for the right-wing American Enterprise Institute, and his wife, Kimberly, who runs her own think tank, the Institute for the Study of War [ISW].
According to ISW’s annual reports, its original supporters were mostly right-wing foundations, such as the Smith-Richardson Foundation and the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, but it was later backed by a host of national security contractors, including major ones like General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman and CACI,
as well as lesser-known firms such as DynCorp International, which provided training for Afghan police, and Palantir, a technology company founded with the backing of the CIA’s venture-capital arm, In-Q-Tel. Palantir supplied software to U.S. military intelligence in Afghanistan.
Since its founding in 2007, ISW has focused mostly on wars in the Middle East, especially Iraq and Afghanistan, including closely cooperating with Gen. David Petraeus when he commanded U.S. forces in those countries. However, more recently, ISW has begun reporting extensively on the civil war in Ukraine. [I doubt the late Mr. Parry would call it a "civil war" today].
In other words, the Family Kagan has almost a self-perpetuating, circular business model working the inside-corridors of government power to stimulate wars while simultaneously influencing the public debate through think-tank reports and op-ed columns in favor of more military spending and then collecting grants and other funding from thankful military contractors."...https://consortiumnews.com/2015/03/20/a-family-business-of-perpetual-war/
Posted by: susan mullen | Aug 24 2022 21:31 utc | 84
Thought experiment for the trollwoda types, given two scenarios:
Scenario A
Nearly 100,000 Russians KIA, Ghost of Kiev destroyed most of Russian air force, Russians running out of ammo, tanks, missiles, Russian ammo dumps routinely destroyed, and the wunderwaffe (stinger,javelin, HIMARS, M777, bayraktar, etc) are all super-effective. Ukrainian losses only 9,000 troops.
Scenario B
Nearly 100,000 Ukrainian troops KIA, about 200,000 Ukrainian troops irrecoverably injured, captured, or deserted, no more Ukrainian air force or navy, most of Ukrainian armor and artillery destroyed, Ukrainian ammo dump routinely destroyed, western wunderwaffe useless. Less than 9,000 Russian troops lost.
Which of those scenarios best explains the facts on the ground:
- Ukraine's "August Offensive" is stillborn
- Russian/Allied forces are NOT in fortified positions but are not losing ground
- Ukrainian forces destroying own infrastructure (bridges, dams)
- Ukrainian's resorting to desperation (terrorism) measures:
- Assassination/terrorism against soft targets
- Shelling own nuke plants (terrorism)
- Using antipersonnel cluster munitions against civilians (terrorism)
- Ukrainians begging for weapons when they started with the biggest military in Europe
- Ukrainians opening draft to senior citizens, women, and disabled people.
Which scenario best fits with the above facts on the ground?
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2022 21:31 utc | 85
I looked up Boris Johnson in Wikipedia who for some reason are quite happy to tell quite a bit of truth in people's bios. I did not know he was born in the US or that his father works for the world Bank.
US UK same same
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson was born on 19 June 1964 in the Upper East Side of Manhattan, New York City,[18][19] to 23-year-old Stanley Johnson, then studying economics at Columbia University,[20] and 22-year-old Charlotte Fawcett,[21] an artist from a family of liberal intellectuals. Johnson's parents had married in 1963 before moving to the United States.[22]
Posted by: K | Aug 24 2022 21:35 utc | 86
How do you know about the Russian strategy? You are not even a Russian.Posted by: rp | Aug 24 2022 19:56 utc | 56
So I can no longer study the Sicilian Defense in chess because I am not Sicilian? The study of the strategy of others comes from watching the game being played.
You are sometimes amusing, but more often you are just silly... ostro ;-)
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 24 2022 21:39 utc | 87
psychohistorian @ 15
Yes, things do not add up.
Supposedly the Zapo NPP is being shelled from Nikopol. Which is a mere 15km away and not that large. Any variety of barrel or tube atillery has a great big infrared signature. Should be visible from space day or night. If you don't know where to look some data could be missed. If watching the spot it should be impossible to miss. And is so nearby they could send over any variety and number of UAVs doing 50 meter swaths until they can locate the barrel end, the breech, the shell pile, the gunnery crew. By now they should know where each gunner sleeps and eats and takes a smoke break.
Same applies to the endless shelling of civilian Donetsk. The Ukes may hide in hospitals and nurseries but it is not believable there are still civilians in Avdeevka. If the Russians have half the capabilities generally assumed they should know the name of every gunner and should know who is Uke, who is American, who is MI6.
In top post b has it the RF is firing off 10,000 artillery rounds daily. Other sources have 50,000 and 60,000. Which figure is correct? An order of magnitude is enough it should be possible to narrow down the range from indirect info. I am not trusting much info at all.
By sentiment, the pace should be picking up if only because the RF can smell victory by now. But who knows?
Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 24 2022 21:40 utc | 88
New Ukrainian troops keep coming to hold the frontline where they inevitably get decimated until they are mostly destroyed and pull back.
'Demilitarization' by artillery with little Russian casualties.
Posted by: b | Aug 24 2022 19:15 utc | 30
What I haven't seen explained is why, tactically, it is so hard to advance even after inflicting 50%+ casualties. Or is it just that there is such depth in the disposition of bunkers that they can only go one bunker at a time (or some such)?
aquadraht | Aug 24 2022 21:00 utc
"It has one of the world’s lowest birth rates at just 1.23 children per female, and one of the world’s highest rates of out-migration. No other country has willed itself out of existence so decisively."
It also has some of the best-looking females, as brothel-keepers from London to Tel Aviv can attest. But the whole evolutionary point of good looks is that men will want to give you babies and you can choose the best one.
It's a real tragedy that Ukrainians are dying for Hunter Biden and Blackrock. At least the young Russians are dying for Mother Russia.
Any news/thoughts on this "railway station attack" that the msm are reporting? Trouble is I can't believe anything they tell me without some kind of independent corroboration, and that's hard to find on the "information battlefield".
PS - early today Ukr tweets were reporting 1800 Ru dead outside Bakhmut, I presume it's untrue. But they have held on more doggedly in Bakhmut than they did in Severodonetsk, perhaps helped by "evacuating" nearly all the pro-Russian population.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 24 2022 21:41 utc | 90
Paul: ‘Biden and Johnson and Stoltenberg cynically provoked this war to destroy Russia through sanctions…’
This is a strange line of argument to take. It implies that Putin is a mere puppet, dancing to the tune of the Western powers, who can manipulate him to do their will.
This totally undermines the narrative of Putin as the master strategist, with the West unable to counter the many chess moves that the Russian president is apparently playing as we speak.
It may be argued that Putin is simply giving the West what it wants – war, and in spades. Except that Russia has barely conquered 20-25 per cent of Ukrainian territory – and less if you take into account the disputed areas held pre-war by the Donbas insurgents.
The Russian army is now moving southwards to counter what looks like the start of a counter-offensive by Ukraine. This suggest that Ukraine is now shaping the war and Russia is responding to that reality.
And there’s an irony: while your implication of Putin the puppet was misplaced six months ago, we may yet see him and his army performing the barynya to a tune not of their making.
Posted by: MrB | Aug 24 2022 21:44 utc | 91
The Russian army is now moving southwards to counter what looks like the start of a counter-offensive by Ukraine. This suggest that Ukraine is now shaping the war and Russia is responding to that reality./I>
Ha ha h aha ha ha!!!!! You sir are a gem.
Posted by: Bubilla | Aug 24 2022 21:48 utc | 92
Dima went full spook at the end of today's summary.....weird shit regardless.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2022 21:50 utc | 93
Wow. A moron AND someone who never took geography. I would invest in a map if i were you. The Russians are not headed south, they are headed north. You know, into the Ukraine?
Posted by: Gilbert | Aug 24 2022 21:52 utc | 94
@MrB | Aug 24 2022 21:44 utc | 92
Only conquered 20-25% of the territory, he says. Only the waterfront areas. The parts that allow transfer of goods via water. The territory coveted by every invading force since the 2nd millenium B.C. That 20-25%. Schmuck.
Posted by: Gordon Weathersby | Aug 24 2022 21:58 utc | 95
One less dangerous idiot in the world. Friendly fire.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300670217/killed-kiwi-soldier-was-on-foreign-legion-operation-in-ukraine
Posted by: tucenz | Aug 24 2022 21:59 utc | 96
One less dangerous idiot in the world. Friendly fire.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300670217/killed-kiwi-soldier-was-on-foreign-legion-operation-in-ukraine
Posted by: tucenz | Aug 24 2022 21:59 utc | 97
More and more this looks like WW1.
Both sides have untouchable strategic depth that precludes manoeuvre warfare and satellites preclude surprise tactics.
It’s the industrial might of the west versus the industrial might of the east. This is the conflict the elites of the west have been salivating for the past several hundred years.
Russia would be amiss to not be using the industrial capacities of Iran and China to help in this conflict.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | Aug 24 2022 21:59 utc | 98
Thank you moonofalabama.org for using my tweet as a reference to your latest article, sorry that my account was locked due to massive reporting by NAFO fan boys and girls .
The comments to this entry are closed.
Awesome article, one of the best recently. Thanks. More on the start of the war being hidden:
"US intel had claimed to have intercepted Russian plans for the invasion back in October 2021. The Washington Post and German newspaper BILD reported back on December 3, 2021 that the US shared that intel with their European NATO partners in November. After the war started media outlets reported that the sanctions had been pre-planned and readied by the US and their NATO partners just in case Russia went ahead with the invasion. Which is why Joe Biden in the above quote on the 1st day of the war implied he knew the war was coming and that previous sanctions were not expected to stop it. Back in December Putin demanded Ukraine codify being off-limits to NATO, and also for Ukraine to follow what they had agreed on in the Minsk Agreement: to stop attacking Donetsk and Luhansk, and to accept Crimea as part of Russia, etc. Over a week before the war started Ukraine forces suddenly began a massive daily shelling and bombing campaign of Donetsk and Luhansk. According to UN observers they were shelling thousands of time a day, increasing day by day. Clearly Ukraine had given their response and was daring Russia to attack. Sanctions were ready and clearly the Alliance was itching to try to destroy the Russian government.
We know that because a week after the war started British PM Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said:
“The measures we are introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring down the Putin regime.”
The war wasn’t to defend Ukraine, the war could have been easily prevented if they cared about Ukraine, they in fact provoked the war because they want regime change in Russia. Ukraine was probably told to force the war to start so the elites of America and Europe could try to bring Putin down by sanctions." From Zelenskyy is a Servant of Madness
Posted by: Kali El | Aug 24 2022 18:07 utc | 1