Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 14, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-130

Only for news & views related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on August 14, 2022 at 12:24 UTC | Permalink

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Military Summary PREVIEW of coming months, from minute 17'30":
https://youtu.be/9Ae0A-wgd5E?t=1050

2022-September-11: referendums of Kherson and Zaporizhia
After: moving a bunch of conscripts to their new Russian territory
Then: freeing SMO troops to storm what's left of Novorussia: Khrakiv in the east, Dnipropetrovks in the center, and Odessa in the south-west.
Tactics: encircle those big cities (and Nikolaev and Zaporizhia) instead of urban fighting. This was saves troops, and keeps the big "trophies" intact.
Priority: save the Nuclear power plant, and the dam north of Kherson. Push Ukraine's shelling away from that. That's +80Km north and west of Dnipre river, up to Kryvyi Rih.
Meanwhile: keep the meat grinder in Donbass until Donetsk Republic is 100% liberated.

It makes sense to me. I guess the Kiev junta will really miss that deal that they could have signed in April...

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 15 2022 1:01 utc | 101


@56 and @63, re: US midterms, nothing will change even if GOP wins slight edge, both parties have same warmonger agenda. Anyway, GOP would much rather lose. In 2018 midterms "Republican House Speaker" Paul Ryan left 38 races empty with no GOP candidate--because he wanted to give the House back to Dems. and also show GOP voters who's boss. Only 3 races lacked a Dem, per Ballotpedia. As to Trump, he's just a front man for Soros biz partner Jared which will be the case as long as Ivanka is Trump's daughter. Trump/Kushner merged with RNC in 2019, are full Estab. In 2016 Trump promised normalization w. Russia, but from day one he was viciously anti-Russia, in 2017 approved lethal weapons to Ukr. which even Obama wouldn't do. Trump was ignored by Pentagon but instead of resigning he became a worse screaming neocon than McCain. Trump "supporters" may forget that the only reason he won in 2016 was he won white Rust Belt voters which will never happen again. Jared and GOP don't want white voters, they only want minority voters. Which will never win you the Rust Belt.

Posted by: susan mullen | Aug 15 2022 1:53 utc | 102

Western sources were quick to show us all sat photos of Saki. Seems like presenting evidence that Russia is stationing troops (beyond security) and firing from ZNPP would be pretty easy. Until they do or the shelling stops, I’ll continue to assume that US leadership supports (or directs) attacking a nuclear power plant. I wish I was surprised.

@sushi, even if a few of those details aren’t 100% accurate, the description of events at Saki is the most probable. Every other theory out there quickly slides into Hollywood level improbable. Appreciate the detailed summary.

Posted by: Lex | Aug 15 2022 2:31 utc | 103

Folks in the combined (borrowing A. Martyanov's phrase ) West take/took for granted, admittedly less so in the last decade in some regions/countries, warmth, that is, a secure dwelling with energy security, and a full stomach, food security.

Andrei pointed out that Hungary is one exception, with Orban to be canonised even if ousted by internal Intelligence Services working in cahoots with the CIA & gang.

Receiving its gas via Turkstream via Serbia. I wonder if the recent Serbian provocation by America is related to the above.

Not wanting to protect your citizens from economic hardship is criminal in the evil empires eyes.

Posted by: WTFUD | Aug 15 2022 2:59 utc | 104

Posted by: Summary | Aug 14 2022 12:26 utc | 1

This is British MOD tweet ... basically saying Kherson supply bridges have been cut ..

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1558330118317162503

Posted by: Saggy | Aug 15 2022 3:03 utc | 105

@ act | Aug 14 2022 13:59 utc | 11

The background is weird. If he has a green screen background, why did they place him in a hall way with what looks like 1/2 of the bathroom door behind him?

If it wasn't, then why is he filming in a hallway in front of a bathroom door?

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Aug 15 2022 3:36 utc | 106

@ PavewayIV | Aug 14 2022 22:11 utc | 82

thanks to you and mac99 and sushi on the yenwoda video..

@ sushi...

thanks! good tracks, but those scatter brain videos - i can't watch them.. music is great but that is not how music is done... people who play music together don't jump around like that.. cheers.. good sound track regardless of the concept of connecting them to the visuals... the whole concept of music ''visual video'' never attracted me.. give me the music, and cut with the visual crap.. but no one ever listens to me, lol...

Posted by: james | Aug 15 2022 3:57 utc | 107

"All it takes is 700k Russians entering Estonia and 1M entering Latvia (or fewer than those if we consider the amount of abstention in elections in the Baltic states). Then wait 5 years for citizenship, and vote, according to the interests of motherland."

" I'm sure the Kremlin can find 1.7M Russians [...] willing to implement such a plan in exchange for a few extra $motivation$"

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 14 2022 23:15 utc | 91

Russia is not an expansionist empire, nor are russians a crawling tide of grey slime bent on subverting the world. Russia is not the US or Israel.

Posted by: Jusses | Aug 15 2022 4:15 utc | 108

Reuters is reporting that NZ is sending 1200 troops to Britain to train Ukrainian troops.

Colonies gotta do what colonies gotta do....sigh Even America is a colony of empire even if we don't look like it.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 15 2022 5:22 utc | 109

psychohistorian | Aug 15 2022 5:22 utc | 109

I believe it is 120 troops from NZ rather than 1200.

1200 would be more than a quarter of the entire NZ army.

Posted by: William | Aug 15 2022 6:28 utc | 110

The energy bills in Baltic states started to appear on social media and they're at least 3x more than before. It seems being nazi is an expensive hobby.
Sure, in other countries, like Romania, >300% increase in energy prices is already 6-8 months old and no one complains, but they have no economy or industry, it's all faked on paper so that US can keep its missile base there (which was publicly built to protect nato from Iran but actually it's an offensive base for Russia).
The only country in EU where the PM is a "nato" general without any experience, a paper general, and the former PM was arrested and jailed in US for drugged driving but released and sent home to his country a few days later (standard procedure for employees of three letter agencies)

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 6:39 utc | 111

@ William | Aug 15 2022 6:28 utc | 110 with the correction.....thanks....my bad....relied on aging short-term memory and need to learn it is not always reliable like before...sigh

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 15 2022 6:54 utc | 112

In 1991, after the fall of USSR, lot of Soviet citizens were left without their original country, and that was not their fault. Putin also acknowledged that it was not their fault. Some could move away from those "new" countries back to Russia. Some had to stay back in their new countries, because of land/property ownership or because they were too old to move. I know few such people. (Some traitors, of course, worked for the enemy and moved out of those "new" countries, including Russia.)

Putin offered the Russian citizenship to every Ukrainian by decree on 11th June 2022. And, this has nothing to do with conscription or such nonsense as some pseudo bleeding hearts promote in the internet. Remember, from the beginning of the SMO, no conscripts can be sent to the front, or to any war-danger areas. Conscription is normal in Russia, you serve your country. At the beginning of the SMO, it was found that some conscripts were sent to Ukraine, and as a result, few generals lost their job.

So, if someone is pushing the idea "Referendum will enable Russia to draw upon conscripts, thus releasing troops for the frontlines/mobilisations" is just sowing disinformation.

“I emphasize that conscript soldiers do not participate in hostilities and will not participate in them. And there will be no additional call-up of reservists," Putin said on March 8, International Women's Day.

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 7:12 utc | 113

"Trump's supporters will never believe the FBI investigation against Trump is a pure legal case.

Read on*
Posted by: rp | Aug 14 2022 18:51 utc | 5

*The requested URL /page/202208/1272944.shtml/ was not found on this server. Dec'd link :(

Mother Jones report is that Donald's excuses are becoming more elusive/obscure/evasive/absurd every day the scandal progresses.

However due to USSA polar politics. For each member of either party. The ability of the member to evade reality and continue to reinforce the extreme beliefs. The other guy is always without one exception. The biggest liar of them all. The party leader is the only one who tells the truth!

Thus, sadly in the corrupted world of USSA polar politics. Together with local homegrown versions of extreme terrorists. Which is far worse than the USSA-funded convoluted politics from both the middle east and South America.

Thus lying to oneself! Is the new norm for all the faithful fanatical followers of either USSA red/blue party.

Back in the real world Donald Trump has been and remains guilty of telling lies for
a minimum of seventy years.

Absurd Excuses produced thus far.
1/ Obama did it -A pure unadulterated lie
2/ My lawyer drafted a signed document.
3/ I declassified them myself! The moment I removed them from the "WhitewashHouse"?
4/ “Everyone ends up having to bring home their work from time to time,”
5/ Brian Kilmeade(fuax USSA network) Photo-shopped the judge who signed the actual search warrant. A sad case of stupid is as stupid does. Shows one of the moronic idiocracies that Donald Trump's supporters have sunk to.

Ironically Donald Trump. The liar in chief. Not one excuse supplied thus far covers his demented mental behavior. After January 6th, 2020.

You’ll be left wondering, once again, how did things get this stupid.

Fool me once shame on you. Fool me 48,000 times shame on me.............

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On |

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Aug 15 2022 7:15 utc | 114

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Aug 15 2022 7:15 utc | 114
--
Sorry about that, check this link
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272944.shtml

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 7:27 utc | 115

Just now, I saw the "Papasnaya Himar attack" shown by one of the European MSM TVs. Only, they forgot to take out the part with the soldier with the US flag on his sleeve.

Let's see how many times they are going to repeat this.😃

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 7:41 utc | 116

Now YOU think the mob is very, very stupid!
But that seems to work!

Posted by: mac99 | Aug 15 2022 7:48 utc | 117

Popasnaya was taken by the LNR forces on 11-12 May 2022, and not by the Wagner group.

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 7:49 utc | 118

Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Aug 14 2022 12:54 utc | 4

sfortunatamente, i russi stanno usando l'Ucraina come banco di prova per le loro armi contro le moderne armi occidentali. Hanno un interesse specifico per le armi occidentali avanzate da portare in Ucraina.

Posted by: Milos | Aug 15 2022 7:50 utc | 119

if someone is pushing the idea "Referendum will enable Russia to draw upon conscripts, thus releasing troops for the front-lines/mobilizations" is just sowing disinformation.
rp | Aug 15 2022 7:12 utc | 113

Exactly, this idea from stupid yt channels that Putin needs conscripts and that's why he wants separatist republics to join Russia is one of the most idiotic propaganda ideas. It's so idiotic it probably was written in UK

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 7:55 utc | 120

Posted by: rert | Aug 14 2022 21:19 utc | 70

Large drones able to carry a large missile are very useful in destroying MLRS and other small objects. Currently RF have to use artillery corrected by small drones. A big drone loitering for hours can detect hidden objects and go fo a kill. That’s my naïve take.

Posted by: RB | Aug 15 2022 8:08 utc | 121

«The thing with the Guardian’s Tisdall, and many others like him in the West’s commentariot, is a naive conviction in the force superiority of NATO which hinders the ability to apply escalation logics to battlefields.»

The role of people like that is to shift the "Overton window" with extreme proposals, their sponsors don't actually want to have those proposals implemented, their role is to be the "bad cop" side.

It is a common propaganda tactic: the "bad cop" side says "All russians are subhuman orcs and Putin is a foul ogre, bomb bomb bomb Moscow!" and the "good cop" side says "we should give hundreds of billions to the military-industrial complex to help heroic _elensky fight the evil Putin to the last ukrainian, and we should cut off cheap russian energy supplies to buy far more expensive ones from american companies"

Then the "good cop" side looks like the reasonable moderate side.

Posted by: Blissex | Aug 15 2022 8:12 utc | 122

Well the vaunted by some kiwi land proving itself to be an integral part of anglo five-eyes.

https://www.reuters.com/world/nz-deploy-120-troops-britain-train-ukrainian-troops-2022-08-15/

Imagine that. Sheep shaggers training nazi's.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 15 2022 8:21 utc | 123

@Carlos Marques | Aug 15 2022 1:01 utc | 101

Yes, I heard that presentation as well and thought he nailed it well, as you set out.

The only additional two points (from my memory) he did not add was:

a) the net effect on the USA/Nato war on Russia of those Russian speaking regions legally joining Russia; and

b) the obvious implications for the "grand narrative" that these Russian speaking Ukrainians will have given the formal finger to their (previous) post-2014-coup Neocon (saying it lightly) 'government'.

The overall logic surely implies that once those regions are legally Russia again, then any 'stray' missiles dropping on Russian territory will incure a nasty Russian Winter slap on the face(s) of the "decision making" centers somewhere up there in "satellite" land.

Well, I'm contextualized well south of the equator (heading into a hot Xams) and hoarding popcorn as old 'Dementia Joe' and 'Criminal Trump' slog it out in the USA Mid-Terms "Blue-Team vs Red-Team" Oligarch Control Show -- and on the other channel the Euro-muppets start burning furniture to avoid freezing to death.

Posted by: imo | Aug 15 2022 8:21 utc | 124

What tactics is the US proposing instead? Brinkmanship and nuclear terror?

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 15 2022 0:42 utc | 98

The US tactics is to keep killing civilians until the enemy gives up.

Posted by: RB | Aug 15 2022 8:28 utc | 125

jayc | Aug 14 2022 17:17 utc | 35

At the highest levels of NATO - beyond the bloviating politicians and opinion columnists - it is acknowledged that direct conflict with Russia might inadvertently expose Western armaments as overpriced and underperforming and effectively pop the bubble on a critical industry - the maintenance of which is the key “aim” for senior military officials.

Agreed, which is why as I have consistently said, Putin may be holding back for fear of the first strike Nuclear capability of NATO, who are completely incapable of fighting any other type of war against Russia. In reality, NATO's nuclear threat is the only thing that prevents Russia from taking the whole of Eastern and Central Europe, and probably large parts of Western Europe as well.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 15 2022 8:32 utc | 126

Posted by: susan mullen | Aug 15 2022 1:53 utc | 102

Taking the House by the GOP will increase fighting between Dems and GOP. While both parties agree on imperial politics, the political infighting within the imperial cabal will decrease its effectiveness.

Posted by: RB | Aug 15 2022 8:35 utc | 127

«The energy bills in Baltic states started to appear on social media and they're at least 3x more than before. It seems being nazi is an expensive hobby.
Sure, in other countries, like Romania, >300% increase in energy prices is already 6-8 months old and no one complains
»

That's nothing: consider the situation in Ukraine instead:

* The fascist ukrainian government was bankrupt, both because of extreme looting and huge incompetence, before the "special military operation" started.

* A large part of the energy supplies for Ukraine was being imported from the Russian Federation at special discounted prices.

* The ukrainian government currently has not enough food, fuel, electricity even for the military;

* Winter is coming, and many ukrainian citizens have no money to buy food, fuel, electricity either.

* In central ukraine supply lines are too long from the polish or romanian borders, and the ukrainian government does not have enough transport capacity either.

* When winter comes the ukrainian fascist government will have to choose between using the last reserves of food and fuel for the military and then masses of ukrainian civilians will starve and freeze, or use them to help the civilians and then the military will have to surrender. Most likely they will prioritize the military.

* Without food and fuel 10-20 million more ukrainians will have to emigrate to several EU countries, several millions will start doing during the autumn if they realize they will have no heating or electricity during winter, but those EU countries will have some problems, because using the USA sanctions the Russian Federation is ensuring that the EU states cannot accumulate reserves of cheap russian fuels in summer for the coming winter.

* Therefore the fascist ukrainian government is bombing the radioactive storage area of Zaporizhzhia (when the wind blows towards the Donbas or Crimea) to either prompt a NATO attack to capture the power plant to "protect" it and return it to ukrainian control, or to disable it so it cannot be used to supply electricity to Novorossya.

This winter the Donbas, Kherson, Crimea will have ample food, fuel, electricity thanks to supplies from the Russian Federation and central ukrainians will be hungry and cold unless they emigrate, and will look with envy to the people of Novorossya.

The first thing the fascist ukrainian government did when they started the war of aggression against the Donbas with the Mariupol massacre of 9 May 2014 was to cut off the Donbas from any supplies of food, water, fuels, electricity from Ukraine, hoping to starve and freeze the Donbas "terrorists" into mass deaths or mass emigration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas
“3,393 civilians killed (349 in 2016–2021)
13,100–13,300 killed; 29,500–33,500 wounded overall
414,798 Ukrainians internally displaced; 925,500 fled abroad”

1.5 million refugees out of 3-4 million before the war of aggression started.

Posted by: Blissex | Aug 15 2022 8:37 utc | 128

Imagine that. Sheep shaggers training nazi's.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 15 2022 8:21 utc | 123
--
👍😃

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 8:55 utc | 129

to either prompt a NATO attack to capture the power plant to "protect" it and return it to ukrainian control, or to disable it
@Blissex | Aug 15 2022 8:37 utc | 128

No one is allowed to enter Ukr, that was made clear from day one by Putin himself. Also there is no nato army able to invade Ukr.
ZNPP has about 30% unused power now and a large part of the rest goes to zelly, not to Donbass. nato wanted all that power free for EU, it's revenge attacks. If Russia lets the Ukr puppets alive for much longer the terrorism will spread, there is nothing else to do for nato other than try to explode things, first in Ukr then in Belarus and Russia. Like I've said, all those "soldiers" sent to UK, Germany and Canada for training are future terrorists.

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 8:57 utc | 130

Agreed, which is why as I have consistently said, Putin may be holding back for fear of the first strike Nuclear capability of NATO,...

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 15 2022 8:32 utc | 126
--

FYI, Putin is not afraid of anything, he is a Russian, born in Peter. 😃

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 8:58 utc | 131

NATO has NO nuclear weapons. Certain nuclear powers have weapons and US breaches Non-Proliferation Treaty by letting Germans etc attach R61 weapons to their planes, but treaties are a joke for US

US would use nuclear weapons if use could be confined to Europe but fears Russian and Chinese response on US Mainland

US knows its vassals are not as stupid as Poles and Balts and Ukies have Dunning Kruger Effect down to fine art

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Aug 15 2022 9:01 utc | 132

Children in Ukraine be like...

https://t.me/ASupersharij/10578

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 15 2022 9:23 utc | 133

As a born-and-bred 'sheep shagger' myself, I am immensely proud of NZ's contribution to the Defence of Freedom and Democracy in the Ukraine.

With 120 sheep-shagging troops (who have never fought in a war, by the way) 'training' the Azov and Volksturm lady hordes, Putin might as well throw in the towel before things get really nasty. This is the cunning plan: we are going to teach the Ukrainians the haka. When the Russians are confronted by the most fearsome sight known to humanity, they are going to turn tail and run all the way to Vladivostok. Freedom and Democracy will be saved. Thank you, Saint Jacinda.

P.S. Zelensky has asked New Zealand to 'adopt a (Ukrainian) region' to build it up economically. NZ has a population of 5 million, imports most of its energy and is currently experiencing runaway inflation. With allies like that, who needs enemies?

Posted by: B. Wildered | Aug 15 2022 9:36 utc | 134

This one is for you:

https://youtu.be/tNYiMxHbcE4

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 15 2022 0:53 utc | 100

Oh look, how pointless ...

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Aug 15 2022 9:41 utc | 135

PeterAU1 #123

Perhaps the lads from the other side of the ditch will teach the nazis how to light a fire and burn cbw reports and samples. The course title: bushcraft for Orcs.

Ukraine army has been weaponised with both banned weapons of mass destruction: biological and chemical with radioactive material as the chemical weapon.

Still waiting for the Russian tribual to assemble...

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 15 2022 9:55 utc | 136

B Wildered #134

The Russian arsenal has two weapons that are the match for the haka. One from their historic exchange with Vikings and then the Cossaks have a fearsome vocal tradition.

The clash of these weapons would redefine 'ambient music with 435hz resonance' etc.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 15 2022 10:02 utc | 137

Blissex #128

Thank you for setting out that logic. I imagine that some of the Zelensky generals are deeply worried as they consider the autumn and winter then contemplate being squeezed between an extremely irate public to the west and the extremely irate Freedom fighters in the east.

Their gps address for their HQ or hideouts will be sold for a bag of grain and a warm kitchen. Zelensky is for the gallows some time soon.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 15 2022 10:11 utc | 138

The standard western MSM rhetoric today...

Ukrainian forces reported heavy Russian shelling and attempts to advance on several towns in the eastern region of Donetsk that has become a key focus of the near six-month war, but said they had repelled many of the attacks.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces also reported Russian shelling of more than a dozen towns on the southern front — particularly the Kherson region, mainly controlled by Russian forces, but where Ukrainian troops are steadily capturing territory.

I wonder, where the Ukie forces are capturing territory? In BoJo/LizTruss territory or in Saint Jacinda's?

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 10:33 utc | 139

Another western MSM "reports"...

The mayor of Kiev, Vitaly Klitschko, assured that the city authorities would do everything to keep the inhabitants of the Ukrainian capital warm in winter, but due to the current reality, he encouraged them to buy warm clothes and blankets.

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 10:39 utc | 140

"With 120 sheep-shagging troops (who have never fought in a war, by the way) 'training' the Azov and Volksturm lady hordes, Putin might as well throw in the towel before things get really nasty"

Well may be the Empire could order an ANZAC landing in Crimea, as very "successfully" Churchill did in 1915 not far away in Gallipoli, that is the way the Empire traditionally like to use the soldiers from the Penal Colonies Down Under (AU-NZ).

Posted by: Dave | Aug 15 2022 10:41 utc | 141

«No one is allowed to enter Ukr, that was made clear from day one by Putin himself.»

The ukrainian government are also demanding that NATO fight to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine including Donbas and Crimea.

In effect the fascist ruthenians would like NATO to do a proxy war against the RF for them, instead of them doing a proxy ear against the RF for NATO.

That's obviously ridiculouys, so I guess that the fascist ruthenian government just wants to eventually to blame NATO for their defeat, saying that they would have won if NATO had fought the russians for them.

«Also there is no nato army able to invade Ukr»

There are high-readiness EU and NATO expeditionary brigades that in principle could attack and capture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site quite easily and hold it for a while as "peacekeepers". But I think that the EU and NATO want the "special military operation" to be a slow grinder and for the ruthenian fascists to be slowly defeated, so as to create a long insurgency guerilla war against the Russian Federation with fanatical fascist ruthenians trained, funded and armed from Poland and Romania/Moldova.

Posted by: Blissex | Aug 15 2022 10:52 utc | 142

Still seeing live webcam video of DPR/LPR/Russian military vehicles and personnel driving in the streets or going into shops on Youtube daily, on pro-Ukrainian sites. Can't believe Russians/local authorities aren't stopping this, given reports of occasional terrorism in liberated areas.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 15 2022 11:11 utc | 143

The explosion of a Ukrainian small sea mine near Zatoka, Odessa region, as a result of which two people were killed and two were injured.

https://twitter.com/301military/status/1558936842824830978

Posted by: Smooth | Aug 15 2022 11:11 utc | 144

«some of the Zelensky generals are deeply worried as they consider the autumn and winter then contemplate being squeezed between an extremely irate public»

What worries me most is the spectacle of millions of starving and freezing central ukrainians walking through the snow to Poland, Hungary, Romania.

I am pretty sure that the fascist ukrainian government will send all their reserves of food and fuel to the military and not the civilians also because they would love for that spectacle to appear on the TVs of german, UK, polish voters to outrage them at the beastliness of the "orcs", and will then call for NATO to bomb, bomb, bomb Moscow! Or at least bomb, bomb, bomb Sevastopol, Donetsk, Luhanks, Kherson, Mariupol.

What I suspect instead is that the greedy, selfish middle classes of Germany, UK, Poland etc. will react very differently when they see millions of very poor starving, freezing malorussions trying to "invade" their countries to share their already insufficient fuel and electricity supplies: they will demand that those wretches be sent back.

«to the west and the extremely irate Freedom fighters in the east.»

The ruthenians in Galicia, Volinhya, Podolia will be mostly fine, they can be more easily supplied from Poland, Romania, Hungary (at least those who got money). It is the central ukranians, the malorossians, who will be in deep trouble.

Also most of Ruthenia is rural, and will have wood from the forests for heating and some food from farms. It is the people in the central ukrainian big cities, Kiev, Kharkov, Dnipro, etc. that will be in most trouble. The RF military have wisely avoided trying to take them, because General Winter will do it for them. Also by ensuring that these big cities have large military garrison, they have also ensured that their food and fuel needs are increased.

Most people have misunderstood the "special military operation" as an *invasion* of Ukraine, instead it was the summer preparations for a winter *siege* of (central) Ukraine by eliminating all their logistics.

«"due to the current reality, he encouraged them to buy warm clothes and blankets"»

And candles, lots of candles, and potatoes, lots of potatoes too, if they can afford them. That's what the people of the Donbas had to do after the fascist ukrainian government attacked them in 2014.

One day the horrors of the first few years and winters of the fascist ruthenian war of aggression against the Donbas will be told, but even the Russian Federation side is not keen on that, because they feel embarrassed that it them 8 years to counter-attack.

Posted by: Blissex | Aug 15 2022 11:19 utc | 145

@Night Tripper (Aug 15 2022 8:32 utc | 126),

Re: your comment that:

"Agreed, which is why as I have consistently said, Putin may be holding back for fear of the first strike Nuclear capability of NATO, who are completely incapable of fighting any other type of war against Russia. In reality, NATO's nuclear threat is the only thing that prevents Russia from taking the whole of Eastern and Central Europe, and probably large parts of Western Europe as well."

You clearly have very little understanding of Russia's nuclear doctrine, or escalation up to and beyond the nuclear threshold. Russia does not fear the "first strike Nuclear capability of NATO" as you put it. In fact, the opposite is almost certainly true.

I would advise you to go read (or re-read) Russia's *stated* (it is no secret, it is written down, in an official, non-classified document - anyone can read it) policy on "first use" of nuclear weapons.

Posted by: Yashuo | Aug 15 2022 11:23 utc | 146

Some idiot calling himself John Strummer is tweeting that Russian troops are in the centre of Bakhmut.

Look on the live cams

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11Rs5Xc78zQ

streets are emptyish, but someone has just fed the birds, no Russians visible

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 15 2022 11:25 utc | 147

The Bakhmut camera is on Vulytsia Svobody, looking south towards the large domed building with a red roof.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 15 2022 11:30 utc | 148

The Russian limited liability operation in Ukraine is looking more and more like good sense as the US empire multiplies provocations around the periphery of the RF. The AA report on Ukrainian crimes is perhaps the beginning of the US empire's abandonment of Zelensky. It certainly looks to me like a hint that a new wind is blowing in the imperial capital and good little drones should jump on the bandwagon.

With most of the RF military forces on watch rather than in action I rather hope for something quick and spectacular to protect the nuclear reactors being bombarded by the US-Ukronazis, a sudden irruption across the river by air and water would be useful. MSM suggest that the referenda in southern Donbas would, if in favour of joining Russia, legalise the use of RF conscripts, which would release a lot of troops guarding ground to fight the US-Ukronazis now that they are being ground down in their last fortified areas. It could be all over by Xmas. I hope so.

Posted by: Squeeth | Aug 15 2022 11:31 utc | 149

@B.Wildered | Aug 15 2022 9:36 utc | 134

These NZ/OZ 'contributions' are only symbolic token efforts designed to allow the "usual suspects" in the brave American goverment system to add "... and allies" to their calling cards -- and thereby help pacify public discourse anxiety.

Posted by: imo | Aug 15 2022 11:55 utc | 150

The US/UK/Canada/Australia/NZ can be very brave being so far away from Donetsk. Maybe, one day someone will bring the the war to their soil. Just imagine cities being blown to pieces. All those, timber houses going on flames.

Posted by: BR | Aug 15 2022 12:08 utc | 151

"In today's summary, for the first time in three months, the Ministry of Defense reports on the disabling of two traction power substations in the Dnipropetrovsk region, on both banks of the Dnieper.

It is worth watching whether these strikes will continue in the coming days, and if so, where exactly. If they do, it may turn out to be a job of isolating a specific area of hostilities. And thus - a sign of preparation, or rather, completion of preparation, for the transition to the offensive in a new direction."

Posted by: powersubstations | Aug 15 2022 12:14 utc | 152

On the issue of the Referenda in regions of the Donbass I have read that an un-named source in the USA Govt has said the USA will not recognise the two Republics, the Referendum, as it will be managed by the Russians is worthless as it will be rigged and that the USA will impose serious sanctions on Russia! First WTF has this got to do with the USA? The people of the Donbass have suffered greatly under the Ukrainian Govt with the blockades of food and water, of c22,000 deaths by the UAF and Azov and the torture of citizens by Azov. Secondly, the world has stood by these past 8yrs without batting an eyelid at these atrocities and the massacre at Odessa and a couple of other cities. The 2 Minsk Accords have not been implemented and Zelensky has not only banned Russian in the region but currently Russian speakers in Ukraine or supporters of Russia are being arrested in large numbers. What gives the USA any say in this at all? The people of the Donbass deserve their liberation and to be able to join the Russian Federation for security, a peaceful life and a quality of life. Lord knows what Liz Truss is thinking when she says the UK will retake Crimea and will help to destroy the Crimean Bridge. Russia will swat the UK away like a fly. Liz Truss is a menace, a real menace to the security of the UK. Get over it Liz. We are, in effect, as Stokes Bank said, a 3rd world country being held together only by Sterling still being functional. If that stops, well, dream away.

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Aug 15 2022 12:14 utc | 153

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Aug 15 2022 12:14 utc | 153
--

As DPR and LNR doesn't recognise the US, they can happily bomb the US at will. They have an axe to grind too. 😏

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 12:27 utc | 154

The attack in Popasna was reported by Serhiy Hayday, Ukrainian governor of Luhansk region...reports BBC.

Only, there's no Ukrainian governor of Luhansk region...😋

Ah, by the way, Liz Truss is the best thing to happen to Britain! Keeping my fingers crossed for her to win.

Posted by: rp | Aug 15 2022 12:41 utc | 155

BroncoBilly | Aug 15 2022 3:36 utc | 106

Indeed noticed that wierd background too but I didn't think about some toilet door, my feel is more about some underground bunker, which is quiet less reassuring than toilets...
BR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paUpw5Rznpw
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/14/ukraine-says-it-will-target-russian-soldiers-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plan

Posted by: act | Aug 15 2022 13:12 utc | 156

RB | Aug 15 2022 8:35 utc | 127

"Taking the House by the GOP will increase fighting between Dems and GOP. While both parties agree on imperial politics, the political infighting within the imperial cabal will decrease its effectiveness."

You really think? The GOP will have a 230-ish House majority and a Senate majority of 53. While the Biden regime will find itself short of an Attorney General and possibly an FBI director as well. Infighting, well, I don't know, blocking and curbing of the Dems by the Reps for sure.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Aug 15 2022 13:20 utc | 157

USA Govt has said the USA will not recognize the two Republics, the Referendum
Jo Dominich | Aug 15 2022 12:14 utc | 153

Yes, they said that they won't recognize the republics or, if they join Russia, won't recognize that either. US does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia.
To quote Pelosi when asked about China's opinions: "well... who cares?".
It's like that old joke that started with: "What countries border Russia?"

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 13:23 utc | 158

People on the cam comments are asking for exact locations of shops where "Z" are frequently seen

"Toni Aynia
​Greetings, @Observation Room and All. I hope everything is as okay as can be. @GuidoSarducci, do you happen to know the neighborhood name for Cam 5, please?

Toni Aynia
​@Guido / Don, alternatively, do happen to know the neighborhood name where the mini-market on Cam 4 is? Reason I ask, I have been trying to get Dog food and water to that market.

Toni Aynia
​I've been searching Google Maps for hours on end with no success.

Toni Aynia
​So, any kind of clues in the right direction would be awesome! There is an organization there in Ukraine, U24, that has people who go out to the Donetsk area frequently.

Toni Aynia ​So, groundwork is covered except they don't know where to go. If you could please help, that'd be wonderful!"

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 15 2022 13:30 utc | 159

A terrorist attack on an oil pipeline was prevented in the Volgograd region.
According to the FSB, it was prepared under the control of the special services of Ukraine.

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 13:48 utc | 160

See David Edwards and David Cromwell - 'Guardians of Power: the Myth of the Liberal Media. (PDF)

Posted by: ftmntf | Aug 15 2022 13:49 utc | 161


susan mullen | Aug 15 2022 1:53 utc | 102 = Never liked those "mean tweets! And can't understand the "long game" of chess! But then, she is a girl(?)!

Most telling was his response to Syria, with a bunch of firecrackers used; when he coulda used REAL cruise missiles!

Putin gets it! Too bad Lil' Susie and her ilk, missed it.

Posted by: Garry Owen | Aug 15 2022 13:54 utc | 162

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Aug 15 2022 9:41 utc | 135

Oh look, how pointless ...

Not as pointless as your comment # 81 in which your entire focus was on the type of planes deployed on the base.

The aircraft type is fundamentally irrelevant. They could have been Piper Cubs, or cardboard cut-outs resembling planes. Or chalk outlines on the tarmac.

The key issue centres on the MSM assertion that 404 has the capability to conduct an accurate long range missile strike. Achieving this outcome would require 404 to possess US MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, a missile the US has stated it does not intend to supply to 404. The distance to Saky from 404 launch areas necessitates the use of an ATACMS, or a missile with a greater range than that of the ATACMS.

At the present time the US does not have such a missile in its inventory. It is however engaged in the development of the PRSM - a long range precision strike missile.

A key question facing any military concerns the actual field capability of a new weapons system. Something like the F-35 looks terrific on paper; in reality the aircraft suffers from a range of defects yet uncorrected and has high flight hour maintenance costs. Its worst feature is its globally distributed supply chain; this implies that in the event of major conflict critical parts supplied by a partner nation such as Turkey may be in short supply, or entirely unavailable. The US military voices great concern over its dependence on a Chinese supply chain; this concern is voiced while the liability associated with the F-35s widely distributed supply chain is ignored.

The US has an interest in testing any new weapons system under actual combat conditions to determine its practical field value. The conflict in 404 offers such a test opportunity. The US may seek the covert test of the PRSM in 404.

The HIMARS missiles reported to have been supplied to 404 have a maximum range of around 95 miles (published figures likely understate actual operational range). This range is found in the ER GMLRS rockets. The standard M31 rocket and its variations have a notional range of 52 miles. The ATACMS missile has a notional range of 190 miles.

It is 190 miles from Saky to the 404 landmass extending below Odessa. It is 165 miles to Odessa. It is 145 miles to a position adjacent to Mykolaiv. It is 178 miles to a position adjacent to Nikopol. Each of these possible firing positions place Saky air base outside the 52 mile range of the M31 HIMARS rockets the US is reported to have delivered to 404.

To undertake a rocket attack on Saky from the area of 404 under the control of 404 would require a missile with a range greater than that of the M31. The same attack is beyond the 95 mile published range of the ER GMLRS.

The only HIMARS missile with the necessary range is the 190 mile range ATACMS missile, a missile the US has publicly stated it will not supply to 404.

It is however possible the US is using its participation in the 404 conflict to covertly test the capabilities of the PRSM which has a notional range of 310 miles and is presently in low-rate initial production.

Why is any of this important?

The MGM-31 Pershing missile had a notional range of 460 miles, a 400 metre CEP, and could be fitted with both conventional and nuclear warheads.

The Pershing II was an intensely controversial Cold War weapon that could nuke Moscow from launch sites in Germany. Today’s Army isn’t thinking of nuclear warheads — an atomic blast is pretty much the opposite of precise — but of precision-guided conventional weapons with Pershing-like range.
SOURCE
https://breakingdefense.com/2018/03/army-will-field-100-km-cannon-500-km-missiles-lrpf-cft/

The Pershing, when launched from Berlin, gave the US the means to conduct a decapitation strike on Moscow. The flight time of the missile would be under 10 minutes, considerably less than the 30 minute flight time of a ballistic missile launched from CONUS. The threat of such an attack caused the Soviet Union to plan for a counterstrike; if hostilities appeared imminent then the Soviets would seek to obliterate Berlin and all of its US supplied missiles before they could be launched against Moscow.

The Pershing was a threat which destabilized the stand-off between the Soviets and the US. It placed all host nations at risk of a peremptory strike. By some very strange coincidence the distance from Moscow to the Northwest area of 404 is exactly equal to the notional range of the brand spanking new PRSM missile. Who would have believed this possible? Such an odd coincidence.

One of the big questions in the 404 conflict is why the US is so intent on supporting an autocratic genocidal borderland filled with Nazis, failed comedians, and tattooed thugs. The proposed range of the PRSM missile may have something to do with it. If the RF are aware of the PRSM (and I am sure they are) then they have every incentive to seek the total collapse of the present Ukraine state and the eradication of any future US threat to Russia and her peoples.

CM of Berlin - you may have noticed that my prior post:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/ukraine-open-thread-2022-130.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02a30d486115200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02a30d486115200b

was not reported as fact. It represented a sifting of the available information and an assessment of that information. You think it pointless; the bar hosts a variety of opinion and perspectives - that is its strength.

The initial post was extremely long and I did not want to burn up all b's electrons in one post. I thank you for your "pointless" comment and the opportunity to respond.

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 15 2022 14:00 utc | 163

Garry Owen | Aug 15 2022 13:54 utc | 162
Those firecrackers were tomahawks, the best weapons on the planet, according to Hollywood. But their flight path was jammed by unknown powers. Then orange man went home. Was it before he sent lethal weapons to Ukr or after? Don't remember. But he was the first president to sent lethal weapons. And now he blames Ukr for the war. He said in an interview that they should have quit going for nato and accept Crimea and Donbass as Russian. He said they won't have any country at all now. Funny man, isn't he?

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 14:11 utc | 164

@rk | Aug 15 2022 14:11 utc | 164

"Funny man, isn't he?"

The orange dude and Zelewinsky should do stand-up comedy together. DT can be the straight man and supply the television channel.

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 15 2022 14:19 utc | 165

@Night Tripper (Aug 15 2022 8:32 utc | 126),

Re: your comment that:

"Agreed, which is why as I have consistently said, Putin may be holding back for fear of the first strike Nuclear capability of NATO, who are completely incapable of fighting any other type of war against Russia. In reality, NATO's nuclear threat is the only thing that prevents Russia from taking the whole of Eastern and Central Europe, and probably large parts of Western Europe as well."

Nonsense. Why would Russia bother invading other countries? You are thinking like the Nazis.

Posted by: RB | Aug 15 2022 14:30 utc | 166

Posted by: Blissex | Aug 15 2022 8:37 utc | 128

The officials sources quoted in the WIKI entry may be too low.

I can no longer find the reference but I recollect a leaked BND report giving a figure of some 50,000 casualties for the period around 2014/15.

I doubt it'll ever be known. In that early chaotic period there were irregular groups, "warlords", and various criminal groups involved. Chechens on both sides, for example, and some "war tourists" already coming in from various European countries.

All that aside, there were the atrocities against civilians of the sort Bouchard catalogues. Who counted those?

So I think the WIKI sources are incorrect and that perhaps even the leaked BND estimate did not take account of all the casualties of that early period of the war.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 15 2022 14:38 utc | 167

Very good and unusual analysis of the war by "Marinus," "Senior US Marine Corps Officer Expresses Admiration for the ‘Revolutionary’ Way in Which Russia Has Fought Its War in Ukraine," which goes against the unanimous line in the MSM. Summary at https://www.globalresearch.ca/senior-us-marine-corps-officer-expresses-admiration-revolutionary-way-which-russia-has-fought-its-war-ukraine/5789634: "In conclusion this senior marine officer declares that Russia’s military campaign owes much to traditional Soviet models of warfare. However, he goes on to express his admiration for the unique nature of the current military campaign being fought by Russian forces in Ukraine:

“At the same time, the programme of missile strikes exploited a capability that was nothing short of revolutionary. Whether new or old, however, these component efforts were conducted in such a way that demonstrated profound appreciation of all three realms in which wars are waged. That is, the Russians rarely forgot that, in addition to being a physical struggle, war is both a mental contest and a moral argument.’’

Legible images of the article are here: https://t.me/intelslava/35056 and the original is at the Marine Gazette website: mca-marines.org/gazette but you have to have a logon to access it.

Posted by: Susan Welsh | Aug 15 2022 14:59 utc | 168

According to reports online there is a large attack on Energodar and the npp in the reactor 6 area

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 15:01 utc | 169

@Susan Welsh | Aug 15 2022 14:59 utc | 168

That article in Marine Gazette is something that will never reach Western dumbed down population watching msm

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 15:10 utc | 170

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 15 2022 10:02 utc | 137

There is (or was) in existence a "peace haka". One of my near-ancestors influenced a small northern tribe menaced by approaching warmaking tribes to create one, as also a ceremonial spear depicting peace symbols for the chief to flaunt as the home team sang. The invaders were so flummoxed by it all that they withdrew in disarray.

I don't know if that haka is still in existence. I saw and touched the actual spear, however, back in the day, and my great-uncle told me it was to be given to one of the museums. Perhaps a kiwi native knows of its whereabouts and can supply it to the NZ trainers of Ukrainian troops. (How the latter can safely be brought into Ukraine remains to be seen, but if they know that haka Zelensky had better watch out.)

Putin should be on the watch for such trained soldiers. They may be the making of the SMO.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 15 2022 15:32 utc | 171

Posted by: Susan Welsh | Aug 15 2022 14:59 utc | 168

I get a "not found" error msg with your link.

A search on "Marinus" pulled up the article you referenced:

https://www.globalresearch.ca/senior-us-marine-corps-officer-expresses-admiration-revolutionary-way-which-russia-has-fought-its-war-ukraine/5789634

My URL appears identical to your URL. Will test my URL after posting.

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 15 2022 15:32 utc | 172

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 15 2022 15:32 utc | 172

The URL in the above post works.

Retried your URL and still get a"not found" msg.

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 15 2022 15:34 utc | 173

The original link ends with ":". Just remove it and it works. It was an error when typing probably, included in the html tag what should have been after it

Posted by: rk | Aug 15 2022 15:40 utc | 174

RB | Aug 15 2022 8:08 utc | 121
“…A big drone loitering for hours can detect hidden objects and go fo a kill”
Exactly like the UK and US drones circling circling circling 24/7 in Romania- Poland-Black Sea.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 15 2022 15:49 utc | 175

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Aug 15 2022 9:41 utc | 135

Oh look, how pointless ...

Not as pointless as your comment # 81 in which your entire focus was on the type of planes deployed on the base.

My remark was not pointless, as I noted that the sources you put in your first post were not holding up to reality. If anything, you might have pointed that out.

The aircraft type is fundamentally irrelevant. They could have been Piper Cubs, or cardboard cut-outs resembling planes. Or chalk outlines on the tarmac.

Well, destroying planes that are 30 to 40 years old is one thing, saying that there were e.g. Su-30SM who entered service within the last 10 years (and thus are more dear to the Aerospace Forces) something else. Hence my comment that these planes might just as well have been Su-27s or the like, at least from those sat-images.

The key issue centres on the MSM assertion that 404 has the capability to conduct an accurate long range missile strike. Achieving this outcome would require 404 to possess US MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, a missile the US has stated it does not intend to supply to 404. The distance to Saky from 404 launch areas necessitates the use of an ATACMS, or a missile with a greater range than that of the ATACMS. ...

And you tried to convey that info and what followed by planting a jukebox-youtube intelligence-test? Okay, I failed that test hands down ... even though I have to tell you that over here in Germany there was next to no fuzz about that Saky planes, nor did anyone claim that the Ukrainians managed this.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Aug 15 2022 16:16 utc | 176

This article is from March, but the data is still valid

A World Gone MAD - Myrmikan Research 220309

Those not familiar with commodity markets may not understand how supply interacts with price. If oil production halved, price would not double: it would have to rise far enough to destroy the demand of half of consumption. Short-term oil demand elasticity is estimated to be around -0.1: a 10% increase in price results in a 1% decrease in demand. If Russian oil exports are truly cut off, 12% of the world’s oil supply disappears.

Food is also extremely price inelastic, especially in poorer countries, where price elasticity approaches zero, at least until people starve.
In addition to the supply of Russian and Ukrainian wheat being interrupted (a quarter of global supply), other suppliers have started limiting exports. Hungary just banned food exports to ensure supply for its population. Argentina, a major grain exporter, has demanded that flour mills supply domestic needs first to keep local prices stable before exporting any surplus.

Russia also exports 22% of the world’s supply of ammonia and 14% each of urea and monoammonium phosphate, all critical ingredients of fertilizers. Global fertilizer prices had already tripled before the conflict erupted. Increases in food prices are going to be
shocking.

Russia’s wealth is based on heavy industry and labor, the dirty part of the production chain upon which Westerners rely but prefer not to see; America’s wealth is based on financialization: the value of Twitter and Facebook and Amazon and mortgage-backed securities, the pooled debt of those who work in a country that exported its manufacturing base, a country in which 77% of GDP is based on services (10% of which is fees for financial intermediation).

Note that the Fed is almost certainly directly engaged in demand destruction - so whatever pressures are arising from increasing commodity prices, will be exacerbated by Fed actions to crush demand sufficient to offset the demand/supply imbalance.

The only real question right now is how much of the suffering is going to be in the West vs. the rest of the world.
As I have referenced before: the G7 was 61% of world GDP in 1991 vs. 31% in 2021.
This disproportion of GDP meant that rising energy and food prices in 1991 would hit the rest of the world far harder simply because they were so much poorer; the marginal extra cost to a Western family for food and fuel is far lower an impact to their disposable income than a similar family in Asia or Africa.
Today, the lower proportion of GDP in the G7 means that the impact is going to be a lot more evenly distributed.
A G7 family had 10x the economic power vs. a ROW family in 1991 vs. 2.5x today... but there are 5-ROW families vs. the G7 one.
The G7 family is still much richer in terms of disposable income vs even the 5 equivalent ROW families, but the ratio is far more competitive today.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 15 2022 16:32 utc | 177

Posted by: B. Wildered | Aug 15 2022 9:36 utc | 134

Is your one refinery still operational or do you import fuel from Indonesia ?

Do you depend entirely on Fonterra exports ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Aug 15 2022 16:36 utc | 178

. It is a perfect indication of what happened there that this once haughty voice of the world's most powerful bourgeoisie is now edited by a silly Broadway scribbler who still gets dizzy at the thought that she used to live in Manhattan.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 14 2022 19:52 utc | 60

I think only Bevin could have composed that sentence for which I offer praise and thanks. For THAT'S what I call 'high culture!'

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 15 2022 16:37 utc | 179

Following my practice of reading south to north when I am away for the usual reasons, I was rewarded this morning by coming finally to the following exceptional description of the explosions on the airbase at Crimea:

"...The RF is assessed to be correct in its reporting of the incident while the UK and Z regime seek a PR victory."

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 14 2022 18:15 utc | 45

I loved how you dealt with 'suspicious activity' in this post, Sushi. I was reminded of an event from the past, which was the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior. I happened to be staying north of Auckland NZ ( where the vessel was docked) at the time so could follow events.

Rainbow Warrior was a target because of the French nuclear tests off the coast of Tahiti. The two French 'terrorists' had made their escape northwards, hoping to blend in with campers beachside up there. Blend in they did not, and so were apprehended. That sabotage in Auckland Harbour had resulted in the death of a cameraman, who, warned of it, had gone aboard the vessel to retrieve his equipment. He too, I believe, was from South America, and the Rainbow Warrior itself had an honorable and memorable burial at sea up along the coast of New Zealand.

Rest in peace, ship and sailor; rest in peace.

Thank you, Sushi, for all your posts. Be safe on your little island. We islanders have to stick together.

;)

Posted by: juliania | Aug 15 2022 16:42 utc | 180

On the M-30 highway leading from Donbass to Dnepropetrovsk, numerous columns of equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were seen. They are going towards the Dnieper/Dnepro.

Posted by: kalibrbait | Aug 15 2022 16:47 utc | 181

@ Sushi | Aug 15 2022 14:00 utc | 163

thanks for your additional post and insights sushi.. it appears a misunderstanding with @ CM of Berlin | Aug 15 2022 16:16 utc | 176

@ CM of Berlin | Aug 15 2022 16:16 utc | 176

neither was their any hoopla over the saky event here in canada either.. moa and others following the dynamics of this war more closely got caught up in it.. i appreciated sushis earlier post as well... why nitpick? it looks like you are doing this...

Posted by: james | Aug 15 2022 16:49 utc | 182

There are 6 distinct areas of explosions visible in the satellite pictures - how on earth can that be explained by mishandling ammunition or self exploding whatever? to top it off, exploding in close succession hundred of meters apart with blast walls still standing.....?
I don't want to speculate on what happened because it just leads to too many known unknowns. But I cant deny what my lying eyes are seeing...........

Posted by: Peter Camenzind | Aug 15 2022 17:02 utc | 183

"................As Karl Marx said, the only revolution in the UK will be in Gardening! How true!!"

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Aug 14 2022 16:57 utc | 27

Kudos for this rant, Jo. Did Karl say that? Excellent!! And since gardening seems to be a lot of what Ukraine is all about -- this post is about that. Thank you!

Posted by: juliania | Aug 15 2022 17:10 utc | 184

Happily following this site for years now, but I don't think I've ever bothered to comment. I've seen a lot of back and forth about the strike on the POWs, with various uploads purporting to show other HIMARS arrivals followed by "this doesn't look at all like those." (This is the same reasoning that "fact checks" from CNN et al use.)

So as an old artilleryman, I thought it might be helpful to explain why this is all irrelevant. The Lockheed-Martin HIMARS is a delivery system. It can deliver any of a number of utterly different payloads, ranging from rounds containing several hundred cluster munitions designed for anti-personnel use to unitary 200 pound+ high explosive payloads. These also come equiped with different fuses, which may be set to detonate on impact, after impact, or at a certain altitude above impact. A small child with average powers of reasoning would be able to conclude from those basic facts that the results of a given HIMARS delivery can differ radically from another depending on the differing payload/fuse combinations. (also depending on whether the target contains explosive or highly flammable material.)

But none of the anonymous "experts" involved in the agitprop on this matter can be troubled to mention that aspect at all. For obvious reasons.

Posted by: Darthbobber | Aug 15 2022 17:23 utc | 185

Posted by: Darthbobber | Aug 15 2022 17:23 utc | 185

This site noted that HIMARS is merely launchers (229mm) right from the start comparable to Uragan 220mm. It explores in Details again when They mentioned 300km ranges which is the range of ATACMs SRBM (610mm) comparable with Tochka-U (650mm).

Also HIMARS currently only have one main munitions which is M31, 70km ranges GPS guided 91kg Warheads with 23 High explosive fillers (inside metal casket).

HIMARS wouldn't make much difference with the few they were given.

Posted by: Lucci | Aug 15 2022 18:30 utc | 186

Posted by: Peter Camenzind | Aug 15 2022 17:02 utc | 183

Mishandling of Fuel and ammunition stores. There's no blast walls whatsoever. Said airbase is old, dilapidated infrastructure with just metal sheet roofs. In very hot days it could ignite ammunition stored within.

You can't rule out sabotages obviously but you can rule out any long range missiles. Typical arrivals would have accompanying sonic boom and smoke trails. Neither are seen or heard near Odessa.

Posted by: Lucci | Aug 15 2022 18:36 utc | 187

Poster 180 re: the Rainbow Warrior
You left out a few details.
The French spooks blew up the ship , yes, and deliberately left incriminating evidence ( a wristwatch I heard) , the single death was unplanned.
The spooks were caught and their plan was to be caught, to decieve NZ into a staring match w France ( the premier, Destaing, was HATED by the SDCE, ) so, threefer. Embarrass Destaing, con the Ewoks of NZ into a slap fight resulting in the EU banning NZ farm goods, and, a satisfying poke in the eye to sniggering meddlers of the South Pacific. Stay in your lane , Ewoks.

Posted by: Philip H Gattey | Aug 15 2022 18:40 utc | 188

The middling minger spawn of Empire, NZ, Aus, Canada, are curiously banal and inept in similar ways. Like stupid teenage girls who use too much lipstick and run after charming pretty lies, and end up youknowhow, Thru ? An excess of unearned pride and a deficit of cunning , these nations are begging for Nemesis.
The terrifyingly uniform group think in NZ is their Super Power. Cosmic level smugness in the Land of the Great White Waste of Time , theirs.
Oz manners are so aggressive they nonplussed the Chinese.
Not raised right. Cant end well.

Posted by: Philip H Gattey | Aug 15 2022 18:54 utc | 189

@kalibrbait

"On the M-30 highway leading from Donbass to Dnepropetrovsk, numerous columns of equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were seen. They are going towards the Dnieper/Dnepro."

Pardon me, but I can't see any M-30 on google maps. There's an E50, P51, P79 ...

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 15 2022 19:06 utc | 190

@łDarthbobber | Aug 15 2022 17:23 utc | 185
Fully agree, only necessary to mention that

The Lockheed-Martin HIMARS is a delivery system. It can deliver any of a number of utterly different payloads, ranging from rounds containing several hundred cluster munitions designed for anti-personnel use to unitary 200 pound+ high explosive payloads.

200 pound or 91kg applies to the unguided MLRS projectile M29/M30 only, with a range of 20-50 miles. The guided precision projectile GMLRS has a maximum range of 90 miles, so it needs more solid fuel, equipment for steering and aiming etc. I did not find the specs, but do not think that warhead mass is more than 50-60 kg, same as a heavy artillery shell.

It is relevant to mention, as those shells, in their precision, are matching Iskander, or Calibre, albeit at lower distance, and with about a tenth of warhead mass. It is just for pinpoint strikes. The unfortified Yelenovka prison certainly was an easy target.

That said, the RF has similar guns, the Smerch and Uragan 1m, which can deliver guided missiles as well. The HIMARS are a nuisance, but far from a game changer. Except that a nuclear catastrophe indeed will change a lot, but not to anybody's advantage.

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 15 2022 19:24 utc | 191

Bringing my point around to match this thread, personalities of nations are not plastic. The Aussies in WW2, the only thing worse than being their ally was to be their enemy. Diggers are great but the officer class and politicos are so very unpleasant.
Thank God for Douglas McArthur and John Curtin. Kept a lid on it. Nowadays the Ockers are gobsmacking the Chinese w their behavior. The Ukraine is a case study in How Not to Be.
Many lessons to be learned , there.

Posted by: Philip H Gattey | Aug 15 2022 19:27 utc | 192

@YetAnotherAnon | Aug 15 2022 19:06 utc | 190
It is the Donezk-Dnyepropetrowsk highway, maybe listed as E50 on your map, continuing towards Lemberg and Poland.

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 15 2022 19:27 utc | 193

Lucci | Aug 15 2022 18:36 utc | 187

Considering that airbase has literally fenced to tourist villages within spitting distance, sabotage is most likely reason. Lot of people coming and going, no checks, probably old fences and lacking guard discipline. Low hanging fruit for saboteurs.

If it was bad maintenance or something benign like that, we would be hiring about cases like this all around Russia occasionally, which we don't.

Posted by: Abe | Aug 15 2022 20:15 utc | 194

Posted by: juliania | Aug 15 2022 16:42 utc | 180

Thank you for your post. It was appreciated for many reasons among them the idea of reading from "south to north." I am a sort of slow, stuck in the mud raw fish and have always read MoA from "north to south." On extremely active threads I never reach the south and am forced to retire when the tide finally washes in. So I intend to implement your excellent idea.

The second aspect of your posts which leaves a deep impression is your whole hearted kindness. Being a Sushi I tend at times to respond with a load of wasabi and I am sure I overdo it at times. I am trying to take heed of your gentle manner and err on the side of guacamole rather then wasabi.

As for all the island dwellers sticking together it is entirely possible that if the worst comes to pass we might end up being responsible for re-populating the entire planet. Hopefully, if it comes to that, we can impart to all progeny your characteristic gentleness. The world, and sometimes the bar, needs less "Sturm und drang" and more politesse.

Fairwinds and all the best,

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 15 2022 21:41 utc | 195

Let me add to the sincere appreciation of Juliana's wholehearted kindness...This world has never not needed such wholehearted kindness.

Respect

Posted by: donten | Aug 15 2022 23:01 utc | 196

AP. CNN announced Volodymyr (Volo) Zelensky, Ukrainian head of state in exile, offer exclusive political commentary beginning 1 September 2022.

Just kidding. I hope.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Aug 16 2022 0:18 utc | 197

Argh. The Ukraine Delusion Fever in all its glorious manifestation, exhibited here by twitter “influencer” Roni Salt.


Ronni Salt. @RonniSalt. Aug 11
Replying to @nitzka1
This is total garbage. Your tweet is garbage too, as is your inference earlier that Zelensky is being controlled by "global forces".
It's anti-semitic garbage as well.
If you want to play fan-boy for that sick sadist Putin, at least flag your account as Russian propaganda.

Item of outrage:
“Has Zelensky sold off Ukraine’s agriculture to US multinationals?”
…According to a story doing the rounds on social media, Zelensky has sold 17 million hectares to US multinationals Monsanto, DuPont and Cargill…..

The tweets on @RonniSalt thread spewing hatred for anyone questioning the prescribed western narrative of Zelensky as Saviour of Ukraine and All We Hold Dear, is a window into the mindset of those who really are fully hypnotised by msm.
What’s hilarious is Roni thinks she is a “free thinker”, thinking beyond the narrow view of traditional media.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 16 2022 5:20 utc | 198

donten | Aug 15 2022 23:01 utc | 196
@sushi
“Let me add to the sincere appreciation of Juliana's wholehearted kindness...This world has never not needed such wholehearted kindness.
Respect.”
Yep.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 16 2022 5:23 utc | 199

Zelensky sold the people’s land
A yt linked @ The Saker.

https://thesaker.is/zelensky-sold-the-peoples-land/

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 16 2022 5:26 utc | 200

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