This is the funniest thing this week:
Estonian Ministry of Defense: We are negotiating with Finland on the creation of a common missile defense system to close the Gulf of Finland to the ships of the Russian Navy, the Baltic Sea will become an internal sea of NATO

Posted by: rk | Aug 12 2022 13:56 utc | 203

Brimstone missiles were used in the latest attack on Zaporozhye NPP.

Posted by: rk | Aug 12 2022 16:49 utc | 205

Posted by: Thomas Bergbusch | Aug 12 2022 16:51 utc | 206
Russia specific clarifications:
Russia has unusually high proportion of export taxes in the budget, if I recall, on oil, it is half of the difference between export price and 40 USD/bbl (probably updated for inflation).
The accounting of “frozen assets” presumably does not show in this surplus.
A little mystery where the budget surplus is kept. My guess is in India, big importer recently, one that may use extra loans etc. The discount India gets decreased allegedly, but the banks can be happy with deposits and India is getting decent stimulus. The cumulative effect of stimulus and discount emboldens India to face irritation from USA and vassals. A guess estimate is that Russian economy is small enough relative to India a major part of the surplus can be deposited, while India economy is small enough that this makes a macro difference.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Aug 12 2022 20:26 utc | 207

The Russian refusal to take possession of the turbine supporting Nord Stream 1 makes perfect sense.
* Legally enforceable sanctions against Russia are in force, which means that fulfilling contracts under sanction are not legally enforceable in Germany and Canada.
* Therefore, the German Chancellor’s pleas for Russia to take possession of the turbine (that is violate German sanctions with German consent) would involve Russia taking possession of a multi-million dollar turbine essential to Nord Stream 1 without the protection of an enforceable contract.
* Therefore, Russia would have no recourse if the CIA (in collusion with MI6) sabotaged the turbine (dirty tricks) to further motivate Germany to cut economic ties with Russia … giving Germany no choice but to fall back on the American economy for higher-priced energy.
The American narrative: “It’s Russia’s fault that the turbine [allegedly] repaired in Canada didn’t work to restore natural gas flows to Germany and other states in the EU. The damn Russians, as we all know, are duplicitous and unreliable.” (In private among themselves: “The Russians would be damn fools to fall for this.”)
The Russian narrative: “In light of events, how can we accept the good faith of the Americans, Canadians, and Germans who encourage us to accept the turbine and make reciprocal contractual commitments to them that are not enforceable in courts of law? Only idiots would walk into that trap.” QED

Posted by: GoDark | Aug 12 2022 22:32 utc | 209

Posted by: GoDark | Aug 12 2022 22:32 utc | 209
All of that is nice and logical, but one should pay attention to the basic factor of pipeline reliability: it sharply decreases when the power that controls the ground under the pipeline is less that pleased with its operation. Then you get human errors, act of God, malfunctions, explosions, obstructing bureaucrats etc.
That said, acts of God, like unusual weather patters, seem to favor Russia more than the West.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Aug 13 2022 2:10 utc | 211

Re American sentiment:
1) The US populace is deeply divided between the rational and the irrational, a demarcation that transcends party lines.
2) A second, more easily overcome division is between the informed and uninformed. The latter group including both those who don’t care about anything beyond their personal lives and those who care but have been thoroughly propagandized over decades of mind control via the educational system and mass media. Although this division also transcends the political spectrum, an increasingly greater percentage of conservatives are informed.
3) The third division is generational. Again, there exist significant segments of both of the two divisions mentioned above on both sides of the generational divide.
4) Race, qua race, is a less significant division, as is economic strata. However, those are precisely the divisions that the elites have attempted to manipulate.
My opinion only, based only on my own observations and with no statistically significant support.
Posted by: Ciaran | Aug 11 2022 15:23 utc | 31
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IMHO, this is a total misrepresentation. One could posit that the most fundamental division in USA is between Navaho and non-Navaho. For starters, they are actually different… A valid counter argument is that there are too few Navaho to matter.
So consider rational sector. Is it really more numerous? Proceed to informed people. Actually, people are increasingly informed. It used to be that to avail yourself to discounts in supermarket you had to locate, collect and clip coupons, quite a chore, so either you were passing on that information, or were so exhausted that no energy was left to find information on anything else. Now finding sales is much, much easier. With renewed vigor, populations knows much more about other stuff, like intimate details from the life of celebrities — now known wider and more extensively. In the process, folks get info of positive value, and, alas, negative.
Recall the clash of Titans that was election year 2018. On one side, one and only Donald Trump who brilliantly entered politics on the following issue: the real (as opposed to phony) birth certificate of Obama. On the other side, Hillary Clinton was running on Russia Gate. The main division in 2022 was if balloting by mail (actually, properly prepared envelope drop to a special box, with some allowances for unreliable USPS) is evil (i.e. “un-American”) or not. One candidate gave example to mail voters by campaigning from his basement, the other was much more mobile… Birth certificate was forgotten in favor of fresher b..t, but on the other side Russia gate was weighing. Navaho elders wisely did not comment on any of this, at least not in English.
There exist divisions which could be related to rationality, but aren’t. Global Warming. I am old enough to recall cooler summers and more snowy winter of my younger years, so on physics I am inclined to believe in Global Warming caused by CO2 emissions, and it is grimly amusing to read various pieces of anti-GW pseudo science. But are policies advocated by GW party (parties) rational? Let me put in this way: do they offer the best CO2 reduction per trillion dollars of devoted spending? I do not think so, but that may be material for another longish post.
Finally, Israel, a “divisive” issue. Big majority of GOP-ers think (according to polls) that Administration is not friendly enough, obviously on general principle that the is no topic subject to discussion that Administration is right about. By the way of contrast, 57% of Democrats does not know enough to make a judgement of “too friendly/just right/not friendly enough”. And they are happy about it (my guess, they did not declare themself as Independent to poll workers). BTW, Trump was the only candidate in 2018 primaries who did not solemnly promise to call Israeli PM before any decision that could affect Israel. Why should he if the father in law of his daughter can do it better? In any case, this is a very arcane topic to voters, both Dems and GOP. Are GOP-ers aware that Israel has “socialized medicine”, practically, a Communist country (to them). In summary, on this issue, Dem hoi polloi is more rational and informed (to the point that they are aware when they do not know), but effectively, it is a gigantic non-issue. Phonecalls or conferences in person, through father in laws or trusted intermediaries of dual nationality, effects are the same.
Generational divisions and racial. The net effect is like with Israel issue.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Aug 13 2022 4:00 utc | 213