Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 01, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-120

Only for news & views related to the Ukraine conflict.

Off topic comments will be deleted and repeated offenders WILL get banned.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on August 1, 2022 at 15:59 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Those who are complaining about slowness of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, Today, I suggest on the 1st of August, look back again on 1st of September.

Posted by: San | Aug 1 2022 16:12 utc | 1

Well, real life: I am German, married to a Russian woman from South-Ukraine. In 1991 she woke up and had an ukrainian passport, which she never wanted as a natural born Russian (like 95% in south-east Ukraine).
Since her parents still live there, we visited South-Ukraine quite often - it's a 2.000km drive from Germany. When you pass the Dnipro-River, the area where the russians live starts - and ukrainian gouvernment didn't even invested a cent into infrastructure there. Every single road, building, factory is from former SSSR.

The war started, and than my wife got the opportunity to get a russian passport, since we still have her old apartment over there. So I applied for a visa for Russia, and we drove from Germany via Latvia/North Russia to Crimea into South Ukraine. More than 4000km...

Russian roads are on one level with german roads, I didn't expect that. Only, there are speed radars every single f*cking kilometer - so whatever you thought about crazy russian driver, that must be long ago - you simple cannot drive faster than allowed.

We made a one week vacation in Crimea, and that island is simply God given.

Than we crossed into South Ukraine. I, as a German, was interviewed by FSB, that screening took 5 hours. But finally I was allowed to enter, because Family is a high value in Russia and they understood that I do not want to let my wife go alone.

We were a week in her hometown. 50% of people left, since Ukrainian announced an offensive. But reality is, that it was russian earth, and it will be russian earth. People are waiting to come back to normality. It won't be like before, since all ukrainian shops and services already left. All pro-ukrainian left, and they probably will never return but enjoy living on social welfare money in Germany (which soon will end due to economic situation, but that's another story).

I very much like that area. As already mentioned, I was there before several time - but never thought about moving there. Since I already -thanks to ma wife- can communicate in russian, I think about moving there. Let's see what future will bring.


Anyway, I allowed me to write that text to show that it's not black or white, it's more grey - you can cross the border if you have a reason, evil russians are not hunting or killing you, and don't send Westeners into prison. They are afraid of ukranian partisans, and there are many checkpoints which they call "blokposts" - but as soon as the understand you are a foreigner (from the accent), they start to be friendly; well, friendly is maybe the wrong word while a kalashnikow is pointing to you, but ok...

My wife successfully applied for a russian passport, in a month we will drive there again to fetch that passport. I am now married to a russian, and that is something I am proud of.

Posted by: Alfred | Aug 1 2022 16:49 utc | 2

Posted by: San | Aug 1 2022 16:12 utc | 1

It is too slow. It is past time for the Russians to shit or get off the pot

Posted by: RiNS | Aug 1 2022 16:49 utc | 3

@San | Aug 1 2022 16:12 utc | 1
"Those who are complaining about slowness of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine,
Today, I suggest on the 1st of August, look back again on 1st of September."

Will surely remember that, September is the delivery month of the 300km himars to the terrorists.

Posted by: rk | Aug 1 2022 17:20 utc | 4

I don't get this Russia too slow thing.
The areas in question are mostly Russian speaking and will be an ally or part of Russia when all is said and done.
Why would you want to go fast and create destruction you are eventually going to be restoring?
Ukraine has most all of its assets on that eastern line. It appears that when it falls the Russian advance to the river will be unstoppable.
As soon as Poland and Romania take what they want of western Ukraine all that will be left is an area around Kiev about the size of Austia.
Additionally, why wouldn't they want to watch Europe collapse even further.
So again, I don't get this Russia too slow thing.

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Aug 1 2022 17:28 utc | 5

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/09/da-mnogie-obnischayut-kto-to-budet-zhit-na-ulitse-i-chya-vina-ya-otvechu-putina

Some of you may be impressed by the recent claims by Sonnenfeld about Russia. He's an "expert", you see. Advisor to Presidents and all that.

Read the above interview and take note of his seething hatred for Russia in regard to Ukraine. More than that, take note of his statements about Russia being isolated and facing doom over Ukraine (Feb./March?)

Whether climate change or politics or war, I think one standard should stand out above all others: Can you accurately predict the future? If not, you should be ignored. What would be the point of supposed expertise anyway?

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 1 2022 18:11 utc | 6

I Don’t understand everyone who says this military operation is not going fast enough either. There are so many balls in play, the SMO is just one piece being played in a much larger game.

Since this action started, the Russian economy has brilliantly withstood the initial shock of sanctions and the transition out of foreign companies, the Ruble is as strong as it has been in years, an alternative to western financial dominance is being established through BRICS and alternative non western trade initiatives, the Ukrainian military has been ground to rubble with a handful of divisions, while Russian weapons have continue to perform exceptionally well, as per Syria. All the while, western governments are falling, economies are imploding, and social unrest could boil over in a moment. Russia is operating in lands that contain loyal Russians, and when this operation is done, there is far less opportunity for underground resistance and insurgency when you leave working civil infrastructure and governance in your wake.

Posted by: Buddy The Cat | Aug 1 2022 18:15 utc | 7

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 1 2022 18:11 utc | 19

some people have accurately projected, for some time, what would happen if other things happened (just as the climatologists have). if the US keeps crossing red lines, they said, Russia will react strongly. it happened.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 1 2022 18:27 utc | 8

reply to 23

I think there was a broad and dominant opinion that Russia was all talk, especially in the EU. Clearly, this whole economic mess took them by surprise - otherwise they would have prepared for it.

My primary point is that we live in astounding times in which "experts" cannot be trusted and, most importantly, suffer no consequences for being wrong, even habitually. Afghanistan is an example. The WSJ claimed that a half dozen "intelligence" reports said nothing about a collapse - that occurred before the US got to leave at the airport. And nobody sees any big deal about this. After 20+ years of war.

It is therefore difficult to see anything different about the mainstream "experts" now in regard to Ukraine. Or China. This 'post-Christian' society seems to have lost the useful notion of false prophecy.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 1 2022 18:41 utc | 9

I would like to bring up another point about Ukraine. Land "ownership".

But first; The Russians are not only going "slow" they are going on holiday. As Putin said about a month ago, there will be a short pause, while the troops refresh themselves, Artillery is renewed, and the next level is being prepared.

This is not to say they are not doing anything. The USUKs have decided (they have said so and here I can believe them) that they are going to attack Kherson, or at least up to the Dnieper river. HIMARS at the ready, pitchforks sharpened and so on. The Russians let them assemble in Nikolaev, and then hit them with at least 100 missiles overnight as they became convenient grouped targets. No advance was observed by either side on paper.
*

The "Next" level is possibly not even going to be along the same axis as usual. The Rus technique is to throw out several probes, and then choose the best. So there could easily be an advance near Izium/Kharkiv as round Bahkmut or towards Odessa via the overland route.
They do not say in advance, and troop movements are discrete.
****

Let the enemy make mistakes by exposing themselves fully, then you can catch them by the balls, as Joe Tzu said
***

Land.
This is a key question in Ukraine but it is also a major factor in many of the other countries involved.

The US/etc. carrion-eater funds have "bought" 17 million hectares of land in Ukraine. Many other countries are seeing vast buying efforts on behalf of the filthy rich and their corrupt Governments in their own countries; Denmark, The US (yes and not only by Gates), and in most of the EU etc. Following a series of orders from Brussels, UN, and uncle Top Cobbly and all the "resetters".

Further land occupation, was to come from seized Russian land, if the NATO plan had not been circumvented beforehand.
***

Why?
The US dollar is now worthless. OK, it still has residual utility for exchanges and to trap the suckers. BUT, The Fed, (which is private fortune with the ability to make "money" for itself) has a asset balance sheet around - what, - $8.9 trillion? It is owned by several Banks, and the people behind them. I once followed a group who tried to find out exactly who owned the Fed. They did NOT succeed, as many highly paid experts had been employed to find all the ways of hiding these. Amateurs had no chance. What they did find ended at the "Bank" level (six if I remember correctly), among whom there were JP Morgan and Bank of America. (Each of the six had holdings in the others, so the primary owners could not be identified.).

Now derivatives. $700 trillion at the least. Two Banks stand out as "keeping the books". Guess who? JP Morgan and Bank of America.

Bailouts- Well if JPM or BoA needs money they get the Fed to lend it to themselves. (As do many other Banks). About the only time there was an attempt at an "audit" where some 9 billions of bailout funds were expected to be "discovered" it turned out to be in the trillions.
JPM also has a direct tunnel into the federal reserve gold in NY.
Own it and give out the best to themselves- what could be better?

The US has a debt of at least 30 trillion, and other countries also have astonomical debts (UK in the lead?). They depend on handouts as well. This time from the IMF, WB.
***

You may think this is a long way from Ukraine. Not a bit of it. What has value when bits and clicks on computer screens no longer awe the masses? When shock sets in. You guessed it - LAND, and other non transportable assets - Minerals, Gold, Oil, Gas etc - in the earth. There are other things that can be used as collateral, Art, limited edition cars etc these are "currency" as they can be transported, as well as being used as collateral for loans. Houses are not counted as they are valuable because of the land they occupy.

Note that all the £700 frilly-trilly derivatives are based on the same collateral. There is not enough of that collateral in the entire earth to cover such a sum. One musical chair with a resounding thump at the bottom for the rest.
***

So. Ukrainian land and assets (and Russian) are necessary for the dollar to exist. (As is Oil - steal that, and Gold - stole that) It is vital that all the goodies in the world must be available to be used as collateral for the parasites to live on. Now that the parasites cannot get their hands on unlimited flesh, the dollar rots.
***

Ergo. All the major Funds and capital are now chasing after real collateral and it doesn't matter if the real owners die in the process. The Ukrainians being sent to the front are the "tribal" (real) owners of the land, who stand in the way of the corporation/Funds and other parasites.

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 1 2022 18:41 utc | 10


Renault announced the "sale" of it's Russian factory for a rumored 1 ruble and is taking a 2.2 billion euro write-off. I am
wondering if in the final tally Russia will get the better assets
in the sactions deal?

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Aug 1 2022 18:46 utc | 11

A bit disingenuous linking to a Jeffrey Sachs article with an anti-Semitic slur.

Reading a couple of his books (just finished "A New Foreign Policy" 2018). He's got some good ideas, but it's a bit tiresome with his open Democrat leaning and endless criticisms of Trump (especially when Biden has not done much of substance that is different, with 20-20 hindsight, and some things that are objectively much worse).

Posted by: Billb | Aug 1 2022 19:41 utc | 12

Any commentary or reporting on this?

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/07/31/drone-explosion-hits-russias-black-sea-fleet-hq-in-crimea/

July 31, 2022

Drone Explosion Hits Russia’s Black Sea Fleet HQ In Crimea

A drone attack hit the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea on Sunday, causing an explosion that wounded six people, and making the city of Sevastopol cancel its Russian Navy Day celebration.

Russian officials accused Ukraine of carrying out the attack, but officials in Kyiv have not taken credit for the incident. Olga Kovitidi, a Russian senator from Crimea, labeled the explosion a “terrorist attack” and said it wasn’t clear where it was launched from.

The attack came after Ukrainian officials said they were planning to target Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using Western-provided arms. But reports described the drone that hit the Black Sea Fleet headquarters as a “makeshift drone” that was carrying a “low-powered explosive device,” suggesting it was not similar to the kamikaze drones the US has given Ukraine.

Oleksiy Arestovich, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said the drone attack showed that Russia has weak air defenses in Crimea. “Did the occupiers admit the helplessness of their air defense system? Or their helplessness in front of the Crimean partisans?”...


Posted by: Linda Wood | Aug 1 2022 19:57 utc | 13

Latest Military Summary claims Ukr ( or someone) talks about 200K soldiers near Kherson. That would be something. Although, if they don't have armor, it's going to be more of a banzai charge.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 1 2022 20:03 utc | 14

Posted by: San | Aug 1 2022 16:12 utc | 1

It is too slow. It is past time for the Russians to shit or get off the pot

Posted by: RiNS | Aug 1 2022 16:49 utc | 6
-------------------------------

No personal offence intended, but I think you're being impatient, short-sighted and very narrowly focused without at all (like ALL of us) knowing what Russia's specific goals inside AND outside of Ukraine are. All we broadly know is demilitarization, denazification, and meeting Russia's security requirements.

All else, in detail, as far as all outside of RMoD are concerned, ranges from rational to imaginative speculation! Indeed, a lot of folks think 'Russia should have taken Ukraine' in a week, in a month, for sure at least in three(!) months --- time-views that are quite similar to your own --- and, also similarly, views which are very much driven by THEIR own take on 'what Russia's goals' are or ought to be (and NOT what RMoDs actually are).

Just, for immediate factual consideration, consider that the U.S., NATO, and other parts of the EU, spent 20 YEARS and multi-TRILLION dollars in Afghanistan fighting (and eventually losing) to fierce though poorly technically armed and coordinated tribesmen (the Taliban). Keep in mind for comparison that geographically, at 652,864 sq. km (252,072 sq. mi), Afghanistan is the world's 41st largest country.

By contrast, in just 5 MONTHS Russia has wrested control of almost a third or more of slightly smaller and heavily U.S./EU/NATO-armed, trained, and 8-years militarily dug-in and prepared Ukraine (603,628 sq. km (233,062 sq. mi) - which is the world's 46th largest country (this also includes the area covered by the Crimean Peninsula, and a coastline of 2,782 kilometers (1,729 mi). Ukraine is the 2nd largest country by area in Europe, is slightly bigger than France, and just about the size of Texas in the United States).

Additionally and significantly, Russia has done this with 12,000+ economic, cultural, and political sanctions harshly laid on it (the most sanctioned nation in human history), and, unique in at least the last ten centuries of human warfare, in attacking ONLY military targets ('demilitarizing') and without the U.S./NATO 'shock-and-awe' approach of bombing/flattening everything - civilian and military - in sight - including weddings, funerals, and (oops! they say, and never sorry, when caught), children and schools, and doing so whilst fighting (Russia) immediately relieving civilians (with more than 20,000 tons of food and essentials so far), re-establishing civilian life (banking, pensions, passports, at al., even as the SMO is fought), and with just about a one-to-one match in military troops. As Russia says (Vladimir Putin) "We haven't really started anything yet".

Get a grip! That's spectacularly impressive! And breath-takingly fast AND complex! --- even for those raised on 'Give it to me NOW!' video games! And I've not said a single word about the huge and growing negative boomerang economic, industrial, and political costs, effects, crises, and disruptions cascading across Europe (and visibly growing in the U.S.), because of ill-directed sanctions, smart Russian moves, and other forces.

Nor a word about the broad, deep, and accelerating de-dollarizing "multi-polar" world moves (with BRICS, BRICS+, SCO, EEA, et al.) Russia (and China) are also driving.

If one thinks of the triangular shape of a 'view from the eye' as describing an 'event horizon' from/to which signals are perceived and transceived, one immediately notices that (simply put) most event horizons are short-range in space and time (day traders have a 24hr 'view', CEO's of public commercial corps with bonuses paid for quarterly share prices typically have a 90-day 'view', mothers picking up their kindergarten a view of a few hours and a few miles), and so on and so forth.

Your operating event-horizons (and many others) with respect to how you appear to be viewing and evaluating Russia's SMO (both inside AND outside of Ukraine) is dramatically short, dimensionally shallow, and is based on zero public military goal statements from RMoD.

As many often remark, "The Russians are playing multi-dimensional chess, the US/NATO/EU 2-D checkers." To the checkers-minded the chess-play often looks 'weird', 'slow', 'losing', even as it routinely and regularly grinds up and gravels checkers pieces.

No fighting words. Just saying.

Posted by: Pilar | Aug 1 2022 20:08 utc | 15

Eighthman | Aug 1 2022 20:03 utc | 49

There could well be that 200k UkA in the Kherson area, including reserve BTG from all over the west plus many who will be undertrained territorial brigades with limited equipment. Their problem is that there are at least 17 fully trained and well rested RuA BTG.

They are pretty much in open 'tank' country with few of the dug in defences seen in Donbass. So we could well see just how well a NATO trained force using Russian type equipment fares against a Russian trained force using similar, but probably more up to date, equipment. Albeit that the Russians are likely to have more air power, but the UkA will have decent AD.

This could be the battle that effectively decides the conflict. Both sides need to win and the Ukrainians say that the Russians will attack at the weekend.

Posted by: JohninMK | Aug 1 2022 20:26 utc | 16

@ Linda Wood | Aug 1 2022 19:57 utc | 47

that was noted here a few days ago via some telegram channels.. 5 injured and they cancelled the navy celebrations in crimea as memory serves...

Posted by: james | Aug 1 2022 20:33 utc | 17

I'll pull this out of my butt, but maybe the reason the Russians are going slow is because every sq. meter of east Ukraine is trenches, and mined and booby trapped, and ever more so as the AFU retreats. You can only advance after the sappers check it out, front line sappers are vulnerable and the soldiers have to work to protect them.

I think if RF could go faster they would, that was apparently the initial plan in March, they hoped to blitzkrieg a quick Kiev collapse. If Russian leadership is righteous then they are not intentionally dragging out something so costly in lives and money. As depraved as the West is acting time is definitely not on RF's side.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 1 2022 20:47 utc | 18

Alfred | Aug 1 2022 16:49 utc | 5

Thank you so much for posting this! I envy you...

I'm wondering, when the FSB questioned you, was that in Russian? And what would they have done with a tourist who speaks no Russian?

How much have you seen of Simferopol, Sevastopol and Yalta?

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Aug 1 2022 21:16 utc | 19

Time is definitely on the RF side, as the heating season is just 3 months away...all kinds of misfortune might happen with the natural gas supply to Germany, and to few other countries that still get Russian gas, except Hungary, which signed a contract up to 2035 on February with Gazprom.

In the near future, that in this week, Allied forces would take Bachmuth (Artemovsk in Russian). There won't be any Ukrainian attack on Kherson direction, as that would have to be done over steppes, that is, Himars will be vulnerable, if they come out of hiding -- they only shoot at night atm.

Posted by: ostro | Aug 1 2022 21:19 utc | 20

ostro @ 62

Time is definitely on the RF side, as the heating season is just 3 months away...all kinds of misfortune might happen with the natural gas supply to Germany

What if it only makes the self important Germans crazier. Look at what the Great Depression did to them. I’m sort of being facetious.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 1 2022 21:33 utc | 21

Eighthman @ 49

Military Summary was talking about 200K soldiers in the south a few weeks ago. I like the site but you can see he tap dances to keep it going from time to time.

Posted by: circumspect | Aug 1 2022 21:40 utc | 22

@ Stonebird | Aug 1 2022 18:41 utc | 29 / 33

i meant to thank you as well stonebird... very useful and helpful info.. thanks..

@ Alfred | Aug 1 2022 16:49 utc | 5

i too really enjoyed your personal story.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Aug 1 2022 22:17 utc | 23

Ukraine was left with tons of state owned assets stealing those was a top priority. The news channel from india that interestingly switched from anti American to pro American after signing a trade deal with the British was saying Zelensky promised the British a nato base in Crimea once they take it back.
The real problem is a few western investors are heavily invested in Ukraine and use those banks to steal hundreds of millions and hide it.
Add to that if they do actually dial it back and meet global emission goals Russia would be the only supplier they need.
Russia also has massive empty lands and resources that Europe needs to survive going forward. The thought of them having to pay for goods for the first time in 400 years is too much to handle.

I would imagine there are a few private interest groups stressed out now that the Russians wasted the wheat king for funding one of the many Nazi groups in Ukraine.

Posted by: OhhCanada | Aug 1 2022 23:09 utc | 24

This is a weird one.

A Bulgarian investigative journalist who uncovered many war and arms trafficking stories makes video appeal to Putin and Khadirov, alleging there are inner circle double agents feeding info to the West.

Her source? A reformed former Bellingcat insider.

Counter espionage double game of selling fake intel? Wouldn't put it past those dimwits at Bellingcat to try and throw the wool over Putin eyes and fabricate a fake informant. What i'd give to know the real story...

https://southfront.org/dilyana-gaytandzhieva-putins-elite-inner-circle-infiltrated-by-nato-informants/

Posted by: Rando Brando | Aug 1 2022 23:47 utc | 25

Ukrainian ideology is not american, it is european. Ukrainians are doing the same things europeans was doing just before the WW2 and shortly after that. The same shit just repeats ower and ower again.

Poland once was country with ethnicaly diverse population, poles, germans, jews, ukrainians, belorussians. Now after mass expolsions it is one of the most ethnicaly homogenous countries in the world. After the WW2 there were mass deportations of germans from Romania, Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Latvia, Estonia (maybe I forgot something?) or forced assimilations. (Alsou poles were deported from Ukraine and Belorus to Poland.) Many countries forced to change german surnames.

But of corse german authors made a books that they have the civilisation and to the east they just drink wodka or singa a songs. And they were elites or urban populations in these regions.

Lvov was kind of like polish town surrounded by ukrainian peasants. Same in Vilnius. Polish state long agou have policy of forced polonisation, so that local elites become poles. As natives took power they changed direction of politics of ethnical assimilation (or expulsion). Alsou they took same slogans, so that they are bringing culture to the barbarians of the east.

I gues if not a common enemy Poland would be at war with Lithuania and Ukraine.

Posted by: Alef | Aug 2 2022 0:01 utc | 26

Re: Dilyana Gaytandzhieva

Posted by: Rando Brando | Aug 1 2022 23:47 utc | 75

A Bulgarian investigative journalist who uncovered many war and arms trafficking stories makes video appeal to Putin and Khadirov, alleging there are inner circle double agents feeding info to the West.

Her source? A reformed former Bellingcat insider.

The original tweet:

Dilyana Gaytandzhieva @dgaytandzhieva on Twitter, August 1, 2022

My message to Russian President Vladimir Putin: My source is aware of several informants in your close circle of assistants and in the GRU. My source asks to get in contact with Ramzan Kadyrov whom my source will give the list of names https://youtu.be/Iu35eK35AHY

Video on YouTube:

My message to Russian President Vladimir Putin


Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 2 2022 1:19 utc | 27

Mercouris has an interesting opinion about EU sanctions, as triggered by Ukr. He thinks Yellen pushed a price cap on Russian oil to divert EU sanctions on Russian energy because she knew they would trigger inflation worldwide. Further, he points out that Britain/EU are going slack on canceling insurance on Russian oil ships - because they realize this could create an even worse economic mess.

As for the supposed 200K Ukr. troops near Kherson, I gotta wonder where they are. The maps show lots of Ukr. symbols facing Russian lines in Donbass. Near Kherson, not so much.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 2 2022 3:02 utc | 28

Posted by: Alfred | Aug 1 2022 16:49 utc | 5

Thanks for sharing your experience.

Posted by: Calgary Guy | Aug 2 2022 3:07 utc | 29

Petri Krohn | Aug 2 2022 1:19 utc | 81

She is very naive or something is wrong for her to advertise something like that on youtube. That will pull in us spooks like flies to a dead sheep.
Rus mod in their briefing on the Georgia lab quoted some of her work so she should have no trouble contacting Russian officials be it Kadyrov or whoever.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2022 3:12 utc | 30

Video on YouTube:
My message to Russian President Vladimir Putin
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 2 2022 1:19 utc | 81

The woman in your video is not Dilyana to my eyes, she is far younger with different facial features and voice. I do not think the real Dilyana would do such a stupid thing.

Posted by: K | Aug 2 2022 4:10 utc | 31

Alfred [5].

Interesting and informative post - thanks !

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Aug 2 2022 4:18 utc | 32

The slow pace of the SMO has benefits militarily speaking.

The Russians/DPR have basically formed a huge cauldron where surveillance and fire can be directed at Ukrainian forces from three sides.

It has also allowed the Russians to flip the roles of attacker and defender to some degree. Russia can dig in and let the Ukrainians come to them exposing their supply lines and complicating logistics.

The Russian/DPR forces average around 150,000-175,000 combat deployed. Ukrainian forces 450,000-500,000. One will note the 3:1 ratio of attacker to defender is reversed.

I mentioned a few months ago Ukrainian forces would make a push for Kherson in August with around 75,000 troops. About a third of that force is of high quality, well-armed and trained with quality NATO gear. A dangerous force, but a move that will fail and seriously deplete the Ukrainians.

If by mid-November Russia hasn't pushed past the Siversk/Bakhmut line or Ukrainian forces manage a counter-offensive that makes real gains, then perhaps we can start talking stalemate.

As of right now the war looks like a meat grinder, with NATO sending cannon fodder to the slaughter to protect better units and buy time.

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 2 2022 4:23 utc | 33


To K @97, You're right! The video is a fake. Thanks so much for checking. The woman on You Tube falsely claiming to be Dilyana looks nothing like her except for the long brown hair, is much younger as you said. I've followed Dilyana's great work for a few years. It was hard to believe she would post this kind of thing on You Tube or anywhere else for that matter.

Posted by: susan mullen | Aug 2 2022 5:03 utc | 34

@ Petri Krohn | Aug 2 2022 1:19 utc | 81

@ K | Aug 2 2022 4:10 utc | 97

@ susan mullen | Aug 2 2022 5:03 utc | 101

in looking at the video she shared in 2018, i think it is the same women.... there must be some other reason she is doing this... i don't know what it is.. of course it is possible she is being paid a large amount of money to do this.. hard to know.. something doesn't add up, but i do believe it is the same person in both videos - the one from 2018 i remember seeing before, and the one she has shared at present... i can also be wrong, but i am telling you what i think - same person in both videos.. i don't know what the game is here though.. look at her picture in the video from 2018 at 248 minutes, 1833minutes and 2213 time frames... looks like the same women to me..

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 5:27 utc | 35

Oof, anyone else notice there is suddenly a lot of talk about how dangerous it is for the Russians to be using a nuclear shield? At the same time Zelensky is telling Ukrainians to evacuate.
I don't like what might come next. With these reports they have already made it Russia's "fault" if that power plant goes booom

Posted by: OohCanada | Aug 2 2022 5:38 utc | 36

@Linda Wood #47
The drone that struck Crimea was a toy with a grenade strapped to it with sticky tape. Not comparable to a zircon

Although Alexander Mercouris thinks it should be taken seriously as a successful piece of propaganda.

Posted by: Tim | Aug 2 2022 6:51 utc | 37


James @103 re: Dilyana video. Here is a Dilyana video reportedly done this year, 2022, an interview with someone named Richard Medhurst about Ukraine biolabs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9edLPCBtLM...posted March 9, 2022, "Secret U.S. Biolabs in Ukraine EXPOSED | Dilyana Gaytandzhieva." I still see these as two different people, I understand you see it differently.

Posted by: susan mullen | Aug 2 2022 7:02 utc | 38

@Petri Krohn #81, Susan Mullen 101
The idea that a Bulgarian journalist would know more than the GRU about the names of informants is on the face of it ridiculous. The idea that a Bellingcat repentant would go through the journalist and expose this via twitter is on the face of it even more ridiculous. I call bullshit.

Posted by: Tim | Aug 2 2022 7:07 utc | 39

The Dilyana video is dodgy. Even assuming twitter is the best way to reach Putin, shouldn't at least the subtitles be in Russian not English?

Why the loong intro? The concern-trollish text at the end (again in English)?

Looks like a psyop directed at anglophone civils.

Posted by: Browser | Aug 2 2022 7:34 utc | 40

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 1 2022 18:41 utc | 29

You have summed up the whole situation.
Asset grabbing.
And not a peep from MSM.
Apparently a condition of an ims loan was the sale of Ukrainian land to foreign investment groups.

Posted by: Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 2 2022 7:37 utc | 41

Posted by: susan mullen | Aug 2 2022 5:03 utc | 101

that's her freaking offical youtube channel. of course it's her!

Posted by: v | Aug 2 2022 7:50 utc | 42

The stories being sent to MSM these days are really funny and crazier than usual.
They say there is a total defeat of Russian army and Ukr is getting back land.
Ukr won't be on the map anymore but MSM will still see a total defeat.

Even Trump said it yesterday:
"They could have given up Crimea. They could have done something with NATO, 'Okay, we're not gonna join NATO,' and you'd have a country, because I believe Putin wanted to make a deal. And now I don't think he wants to make a deal. I think it's much tougher to make a deal. He's blowing up the whole place. I mean, he will take over the whole place."

In EU, MSM had a big hate on Trump since his first day as president. The faction controlling MSM in EU is the Obomber faction, the diversity CIA team.

Posted by: rk | Aug 2 2022 8:44 utc | 43

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 2 2022 8:43 utc | 113

My bad Apologies!
Thanks again for the very interesting post.
Jpc

Posted by: Jpc | Aug 2 2022 9:45 utc | 44

There is some serious shit going on at eastern front.
Ukraine live map is not refreshing...
But, why is that not surprising me?

Posted by: preseren3 | Aug 2 2022 9:47 utc | 45

Stonebird #29 and additions

Thank you. Thats what I see too.

Those ruskies have upturned the roulet table.

August will be interesting.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 2 2022 10:17 utc | 46

"I mentioned a few months ago Ukrainian forces would make a push for Kherson in August with around 75,000 troops. About a third of that force is of high quality, well-armed and trained with quality NATO gear. A dangerous force, but a move that will fail and seriously deplete the Ukrainians."

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 2 2022 4:23 utc | 99

In the dutch fakemedia yesterday:

Ukraine: More than 40 villages recaptured in Kherson region

In the Kherson region, Ukrainian troops have recaptured more than 40 villages from the Russians, the local governor said. The majority of the reclaimed sites are in the northern part of the region, with a few others in the southern part, close to the Black Sea and the heavily bombed region of Mikolayiv. Some of the recaptured villages have been "90 percent destroyed" and are "still under constant attack," the governor said.

Moscow has not confirmed the loss of control of the villages.

Today no news and no updates on the war maps of this big victory.

Posted by: gary | Aug 2 2022 10:30 utc | 47

@gary | Aug 2 2022 10:30 utc | 120

Exactly, this is what I was talking about in post 114 and I'm not reading Dutch fakemedia but all media in Europe receives exactly the same email and all tv stations read it like parrots. It's hilarious and sad at the same time.
Ukr never "captures" anything, it's the trap where they go to die. Of course, msm never updates the news next day. Someone watching tv clearly expects Ukr troops to be in Moscow now, after all the daily captures.

Posted by: rk | Aug 2 2022 10:47 utc | 48

@all
- some 50+ off topic comments deleted
- 7 commentators banned

Note to frequent commentators, fnord etc.
Stop falling for and responding to trolls. Your responses, not the troll comment, are derailing threads.

Posted by: b | Aug 2 2022 11:29 utc | 49

Re: 1/3 of 75,000 ground forces assembled for attack on Kherson are High Quality NATO style troops.

It’s unlikely that Kiev’s military has ~20,000 of its orginal NATO level combat troops left. Very roughly figuring these 7 ‘elite’ formations have not been wrecked:

14th Mechanized Brigade
128th Mountain
30th Mech
59th Motorized
28th Mech
1st Armour
58th Mech

The rest of the ~18 NATO level combat brigades Kiev started with are either destroyed (17th Armour) or being filled with hastily trained conscripts ( 54th Mech ). It’s doubtful that any of these formations are capable of offensive action.

Kiev did start off with some decent 1.line reserve units. Little insight on my part on these formations.

Conclusion - If NATO command used all 7 remaining Elite brigades in a last ditch Hail Mary effort to attack Kherson, then yes Kiev could rustle up ~20,000 elite troops. That would imply the other areas of the theater being held by low grade troops with hardly and reserves. That’s high risk low reward. Doubt even NATO command is that irresponsible ( I think )

So, unless NATO has sent in 10,000 or so ‘volunteers’ from NATO armies; it’s unlikely that the Kherson attack force has 20,000 Elite troops.

Just my thoughts based on limited information fellow barflies


Posted by: Exile | Aug 2 2022 12:00 utc | 50

I have strong gut feeling Ukies number are grossly overstated in this thread and in general.

It is not that their fierce resistance and numbers are what is keeping Russian/LDPR forces going slow, but their dirty tactics and Russian clean, thorough approach that avoids civilian casualties and keep/rebuild what is already taken.

That said, I believe numbers (gut feeling, not facts) are at most 2:1 currently in favor of Ukies compared to Russians. And significant part of Ukies are now inexperienced or disposable troops thrown to die at first lines.

Russian forces already probably have softened defences enough that if they desire, they can introduce fresh reserves and start manouvering and taking ground in other areas other than Donbass/Kherson. But taking ground is not priority, killing nazis and their sympathizers is, and giving time for EU/NATO/US to waste even more resources into this pit.

Posted by: Abe | Aug 2 2022 12:10 utc | 51

I'm waiting for headlines that say, "Russia has run out of missiles !" - when they actually run out of targets worth hitting.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 2 2022 12:13 utc | 52

ISW weighs in: Beware of War Predictions - Ukraine's Outcome Is Not Yet Written - thehill.com

[about the author]James M. Dubik, Ph.D., a retired lieutenant general of the U.S. Army, is a senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. He served in military command and operational roles in Bosnia, Haiti and Iraq, and helped train forces in Afghanistan, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Honduras, and many NATO countries

Notable only because it represents the Kagan/Nuland views...

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 12:57 utc | 53

@Tim #37
No, what Mercouris said is that the drone was a commercial one with explosives attached; that it is clearly short range and that this means there are at least a few Ukrainian sympathizers or active Ukrainian agents on Crimea.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 12:59 utc | 54

https://maritime-executive.com/article/lebanon-seizes-vessel-accused-of-carrying-stolen-ukrainian-grain

anyone know anything about this// ? has a criminal conspiracy in Ukraine been identified in Lebanon?
whose grain was said to have been stolen?

Posted by: snake | Aug 2 2022 13:05 utc | 55

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (02082022)

As a result of the strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the combat positions of the 54th mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Maryinka of the Donetsk People's Republic, more than 50 nationalists of the 2nd battalion of this unit were destroyed.

High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces struck at the temporary deployment point: Ukrainian "Foreign Legion" in the area of the city of Nikolaev. Up to 250 mercenaries and more than 20 pieces of military equipment were destroyed.

Up to 500 nationalists of the 92nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a large amount of military equipment were eliminated in the settlements of Merefa and Chuguev in the Kharkiv region as a result of high-precision strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

As a result of the fire damage to the combat positions of the 16th battalion of the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Artemovsk, more than 130 nationalists were destroyed. The remaining soldiers of the battalion numbering up to 70 people hastily left their positions and left for Konotop, Sumy region, where they were disarmed and recognized as deserters.

The 21st battalion of the 56th Motorized Infantry Brigade, which suffered significant losses in the area of the village of Peski, was subjected to artillery shelling by Ukrainian troops during the retreat to the area of the settlement of Vodiane and was almost completely eliminated.

During the day, five control points were hit, including the 36th Marine Brigade in the Nikolaev area, the 92nd mechanized brigade in the Circuna area of the Kharkiv region, as well as manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 142 districts.

Seven ammunition depots were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Artemovsk, Konstantinovka, Ocheretino of the Donetsk People's Republic, Trudovoye of the Zaporozhye region and Nikolaev.

As part of the counter-battery struggle, two artillery batteries of Hyacinth howitzers were hit in the areas of the settlements of Dzerzhinsk and Novgorodskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Also suppressed: four platoons of MLRS "Grad" and nine artillery platoons in firing positions in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Kirovo, Artemovsk, Avdiivka, Peski, Orlovka, Shakhterskoye, Velikaya Novoselka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Dobropole of the Zaporozhye region, Shirokoe, Bereznegovatoye of the Mykolaiv region, Russian Lozovaya and Nortsovka of the Kharkiv region.

Russian air defense means shot down five Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Moskalevka, Petropavlovsk, Kopanki, Volkhov Yar of the Kharkiv region and Sergeyevka of the Kherson region during the day. Also intercepted two rockets of the multiple launch rocket system "Hurricane" in the area of Kherson.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 261 aircraft, 145 helicopters, 1664 unmanned aerial vehicles, 361 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4225 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 782 multiple rocket launchers, 3240 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 4655 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

Posted by: Summary02082022 | Aug 2 2022 13:09 utc | 56

US belligerence increases in direct relation to its desperation. The sheer contempt of/for civilian life in Ukraine and the developing world in particular is nothing short of mass genocide.

US-NATO military targets/assets in Poland, Romania and Baltics, IMO, are now fair game. Any country supplying WMD's to Ukraine are participants in War Crimes.

I'm well aware Putin/Russia play by the book of International Law, and why change tactics when winning? If I had the power though I'd level every US-NATO military base in Poland, Romania and the Baltics, moving further west depending on the response of EU vassals.

Still, when Russia lock up the Donbass and other regions who vote to be part of RF, those discerning hypersonic missiles will not be so discerning.

Posted by: WTFUD | Aug 2 2022 13:17 utc | 57

@ Posted by: b | Aug 2 2022 11:29 utc | 49

Note taken, o' captain my captain!

Posted by: fnord | Aug 2 2022 13:38 utc | 58

The Supreme Court of the Russian Federation recognized the national battalion "Azov" as a terrorist organization.

A long overdue solution.

Posted by: alaff | Aug 2 2022 14:10 utc | 59

If the current sat image provided is real, then the strike/bombing of the building holding the prisoners in Olenivka was pin-point.

The satellite images released by @Maxar
clearly show that only a small part of Olenivka prison was destroyed.

The part to where Russians moved Ukrainian POWs, including those from the Azov regiment.

It wasn’t an artillery strike, with evidence pointing at a bomb.

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1553717461303934976

Posted by: Tom_12 | Aug 2 2022 14:11 utc | 60

Close read the MOD 2.August update listing various Kiev formations wacked. Those are all NATO style elite units. Even allowing for MOD hyperbole, it’s a impressive list for just one day. And this has been the rythmn for 150 days now.

Kiev started with 25 NATO style combat brigades in the ground forces. By my reckoning only 7 are capable of offensive action.

Posted by: Exile | Aug 2 2022 14:13 utc | 61

Kiev started with 25 NATO style combat brigades in the ground forces. By my reckoning only 7 are capable of offensive action.

Posted by: Exile | Aug 2 2022 14:13 utc | 61

It's been stated hereabouts as regards combat effectiveness that after 90 days men are done physically and mentally and must be withdrawn as they become a liability to themselves and everyone else around them.
How many of the 7 are capable of more combat 5 months on?

Posted by: Jpc | Aug 2 2022 14:24 utc | 62

Does anyone know how to get access to the Russian MoD "clobber list" from the US? Seems like US IP addresses are just outright blocked.

Posted by: fnord | Aug 2 2022 14:32 utc | 63

Posted by: Tom_12 | Aug 2 2022 14:11 utc | 60

The initial reports was US HIMARS were used.

Posted by: Barofsky | Aug 2 2022 14:47 utc | 64

@51:

I have strong gut feeling Ukies number are grossly overstated in this thread and in general.

I have an even stronger gut feeling that your gut is leading you astray.

Posted by: Barofsky | Aug 2 2022 14:49 utc | 65

In EU there are small elective authoritarian regimes.
In Latvia they just arrested Ruslan Pankratov whose alleged crime is mostly political one, like participation in russian political TV shows with a "wrong" opinions about Russian-Ukrainian war, his state, West and visits to Donetsk (use google translate):
https://www.kompromat.lv/item.php?docid=readn&id=9414
https://jauns.lv/raksts/zinas/513922-video-par-darbibam-krievijas-intereses-aiztur-bijuso-rigas-domnieku-pankratovu
I guess then USA must arrest Noam Chomsky.
In Lithuania they alredy long agou used same aproach. This is not suprising. But EU (mostly germans and scandinavian) gov paid Non Goverment Organisations recognise only Poland and Hungary as non-democracies.
New eastern member states hides behind the shield of western powers and escalates conflict with Russia without any real responsibility from their side. Well, crazy cuban revolutionaries did that in mutch larger extent leading to Caribbean Crisis.

Posted by: nomars | Aug 2 2022 14:51 utc | 66

Posted by: Alfred | Aug 1 2022 16:49 utc | 2

It should be noted that the FSB is a multi-functional organisation, besides internal intelligence, it performs immigration, border security, coast guard functions etc. It is not unusual for foreigners to be questioned on entering potentially "problem" areas.

Posted by: Peter Williams | Aug 2 2022 15:06 utc | 67

…. How many of the 7 are capable of more combat 5 months on ?….

Good point - the 7 NATO level combat brigades I believe are still capable of offensive action appear to have not taken part in any meaniful combat so far. ( note - solid information is limited so accept this as a reasonable estimate )

Posted by: Exile | Aug 2 2022 15:17 utc | 68

on German TV (RTL) 02.08.22
The turbine for Nord Stream 1 hasn't even left Germany yet...
Scholz (Chancellor) wants to visit the Siemens factory tomorrow!
Who is fooling who in the media, because according to this media last report on 07/26/22 the turbine is in the hands of Gazprom!!
Suddenly this turbine has not even left Germany! Gazprom reported that this turbine is not 100% repaired??
How does that work if this turbine is still at Siemens Germany?
All very confusing!

Posted by: mac40 | Aug 2 2022 17:04 utc | 69

@fnord #63:

Does anyone know how to get access to the Russian MoD "clobber list" from the US? Seems like US IP addresses are just outright blocked.

It’s posted (in Russian) in Russian MoD’s Telegram channel: https://t.me/s/mod_russia

For example, the latest one is here: https://t.me/mod_russia/18204

I don’t know if this channel is accessible from the U.S or not. If it is, you can use Google Translate or Yandex Translate or Telegram app’s built-in translation feature to translate it into English.

Posted by: S | Aug 2 2022 17:48 utc | 70

"Evacuation" is just another fake Bucha. Told you days ago:

Nationalists shot up a bus with civilians evacuating to Kiev-controlled territory on a stretch of road near Dolgovoye.

At the same time, photo and video recordings of allegedly indiscriminate Russian strikes on civilians were carried out by specialists of the AFU Centre for Information and Psychological Operations.

Posted by: rk | Aug 2 2022 18:39 utc | 71

@ Leuk | Aug 2 2022 15:22 utc | 7 (in the "Ukraine - Missiles, Mines..." thread) ... thanks, although i don't like clicking tiny url links.... make it a regular link with the html tags...

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 16:04 utc | 21

There are free websites that show where a tiny URL link actually points. I use
https://www.expandurl.net/, for which one would copy the short link, paste it into the designated input box at Expand URL, and click the appropriate button to show the full URL (without visiting that URL).

Posted by: David Levin | Aug 2 2022 19:18 utc | 72

@ David Levin | Aug 2 2022 19:18 utc | 72

thanks david... i wonder why people use those tinyurls?? html tags work just as well..

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 19:56 utc | 73

Some photos and videos from a laptop found at the Azov Battalion base in Mariupol: https://t.me/ua_tribunal/1768

“No Nazis in the Ukraine”, my ass.

Posted by: S | Aug 2 2022 21:57 utc | 74

@ David Levin | Aug 2 2022 19:18 utc | 72

thanks david... i wonder why people use those tinyurls?? html tags work just as well..

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 19:56 utc | 73

Golly, James, if I could answer that, then surely I should have no difficulty predicting how the SMO will unfold. 8^)

Posted by: David Levin | Aug 2 2022 22:15 utc | 75

A little 'clown world' from 'freedom loving' Ireland (for 'freedom' read whatever "EU/USA policy dictates whenever". The (largely ceremonial) President has been forced to reiterate his undying fealty to the NATO narrative on Ukraine by our, heavily neo-Liberal influenced media and political elites. Why? because his wife Sabine published a letter in the press where she came out with the preposterous suggestion that this 'war' can only end when both sides engage in a series of negotiations, accompanied or preceded by a mutually agreed ceasefire. Unless blocked by a paywall here is the letter.. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/2022/07/27/war-in-ukraine-a-moment-of-moral-choice/
Here's the furore https://www.thejournal.ie/michael-d-higgins-sabina-letter-russia-5829696-Jul2022/🤡🤡🤡

Posted by: Gabriel in Ireland | Aug 2 2022 22:19 utc | 76

@ Exile #50

Thanks for the info. Do you use the Ukraine forces map to come up with the locations and capabilities of each battalion?

As the punch list shows, Russia is now "hunting" the more elite units when they come into the battle area, 50 km from the zero line. They have seen that attacking territorial units is wasting ammo. They will hit them on the zero line, but only target "command posts" of them when not at zero line.

So my opinion is below.

The main reason for slow ground movement is Russia (LPR and DPR) don't have to move much. Ukraine keeps sending more units into the 50 km zone, to rotate to the zero line. Russia says thank you and attacks them. The net result is that BOTH front line and rotational back ups are getting reduced every day. The 300 KIA per day from 2 months ago is still the same, only now instead of chasing AFU troops, the AFU come to them. At some time, both the zero line and second and third line will be decreased enough for a large movement, similar to what happened to the south of Lysychansk. That took 3 months to happen, then it was all taken in 3 days.

For Kherson, even the utube pro Ukraine guys are saying Ukraine simply don't have to manpower to take the city. 10-15 km of open land between the two forces makes sneaking in impossible. The attempts from the north along the rivers have no real success. Lack of air power makes all attacks moot. The outcome is pre-determined without the air support.


Posted by: BroncoBilly | Aug 3 2022 1:51 utc | 77

@ David Levin | Aug 2 2022 22:15 utc | 75

trust me to ask the dumb questions, lol..

Posted by: james | Aug 3 2022 5:24 utc | 78

Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers special address to Australian universities
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared in a special video address to Australian universities on Wednesday evening. The event was officially opened by ANU's Chancellor and former foreign minister Julie Bishop and also featured a Q&A session between students and Zelenskyy.
- A standing ovation from the audience as we say goodbye to President Zelenskyy following a truly special address and Q&A.
Thank you to everyone who attended in person or watched online.
#UnisWithUKR
President Zelenskyy: "We've all seen horror movies. I never thought that the reality in Ukraine would be scarier than most movies"
Hundreds turnout at #UQ to hear a special address by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Australian universities.
Zelenskiy speaks and then takes questions from students -- one student asks how the Ukrainian leader views China's attitude to the war:
“For now, China is balancing and indeed has neutrality. And I will be honest, this neutrality is better than China joining Russia," he replies.
Packed hall at the ANU in Canberra to hear an address by Ukraine President Vlodymyr Zelenskiy.
- decries Russian atrocities, thanks Australia for assistance.
- talking about an "informational war"
- now taking questions from university students across Australia
- finishes by acknowledging Australian financial and humanitarian aid and expresses his thanks to the Albanese government for "significant systemic support" including military assistance and for strengthening sanctions.
“It’s been already 161 days,” president Zelenskyy tells a full ANU hall. “It’s important not to forget one of those days.”
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has made a special address from Kyiv to university students in Australia.
- Zelenskyy is introduced by ANU Chancellor Julie Bishop. Assistant Foreign Minister Tim Watts, Shadow Foreign Min Simon Birmingham and Senator David Van among those in attendance.

https://twitter.com/i/events/1554723611558027265

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 3 2022 9:21 utc | 79

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