Ukraine - A 'Counteroffensive' That Was Destined To Fail
Yesterday Ukraine launched some kind of offensive in the general Kherson region north of the Dnieper.
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News of the success is murky. This morning Dima of the Military Summary Channel made a special report (vid) which listed the claims of both sides. His map drawings showed at least five directions of attacks.
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The Ukraine side claimed to have taken a handful of small villages near the former frontline. The Russian conceded the Ukraine had taken three or so but said that two of them were recovered over night.
Also this morning the Defense Ministry of Russia listed losses of the Ukrainian side. (Link goes to the Russian language report on the Rybar Telegram channel):
As a result of the defeat of the Ukrainian offensive carried out on the personal orders of Zelensky in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog and other directions, the enemy suffered large-scale losses.▪️The effective actions of the Russian group of troops destroyed 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armored fighting vehicles, 8 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 1200 Ukrainian military personnel in a day.
It is a bit early to speak of defeat as the Ukrainian attacks continue. The total strength of the Ukrainian side is probably two divisions worth which means some 30.000+ soldiers.
The losses of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers are therefore not yet significant. The fighting at the Donetsk front cost several hundred Ukrainian lives each day. But the relative high losses of tanks, IFVs and armored vehicles are very notable. That equipment was enough for at least three to five full battalions.
The losses can be explained by the flat open steppe in the area. There are very few wooded or build up areas that would allow tanks to hide. It is ideal for the defending side as long range anti-tank missiles can pick off the tanks before they even know where the fire is coming from.
The Ukraine does not have many armored vehicles left and has even difficulties to get more of them from the 'west'. The countries which still had Soviet equipment have already given most of it to the Ukraine.
The Ukraine has also brought reserves from Odessa to Kryvyi Rih (Russian: Krivoy Rog) to protect it from an eventual Russian attack should the offensive fail.
That will most likely be the case. I expect everything to be back to its previous position in a day or two. We may then see a Russian attempt to break through the thinned out Ukrainian lines in this or that other direction.
In yesterday's background briefing by the Pentagon the military doubt about this offensive was palpable:
Q: Hi. Thanks for this.I'm wondering if -- [omitted], I know you can't give us any apparent details on this counteroffensive. You said there's been an uptick in fighting. Can you give us a sense how big of an uptick and is this fighting from both sides? Give us any sense of that you can.
...
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Okay, Lita, thank you.So over the weekend, we saw a larger number of artillery fires primarily coming from the Ukrainians. And so, you know, I say "larger" I wouldn't -- I wouldn't exaggerate that but it's an increased amount of artillery that we've seen coming from the Ukrainians.
And then they have -- as you all know, for the past couple of weeks, they have been making some small advances in and around the Kherson pocket for a while. So I don't want to mislead you here and tell you that I don't think the offensive is underway. I -- I would just -- I'd refer you to the Ukrainians right now because we have seen some offensive action in that area for the past couple weeks.
And I'll pass it over to [omitted].
...
Q: Yeah, for the senior military official, so you say you really can't give us any particulars on this offensive. You see an uptick in fighting. You say go to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are saying this is a significant counteroffensive. So clearly, you're not willing to go that far, correct?SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Tom, I’m just saying, I think the Ukrainians have a better way of telling you what they're doing than we do. I mean, even in the best case, you know, I'm getting my reporting from the Ukrainians. So --
Q: Well, are they telling you that it's a significant counteroffensive? Because that's kind of what they're saying publicly. Are you getting the same thing? And if -- if that's the case, why can't you tell us it's a -- a counteroffensive?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Well, I just don't -- I mean, listen, are they on the offensive? I think they are. Is this a counteroffensive? I don't know. And the reason I tell you that is because, as I said, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen them making some offensive moves in and around the Kherson pocket.
So listen, I'm -- you know, like you, I would love to have perfect information here. I think we'll get some more information over the course of the next 24 to 36 hours.
Q: Yeah, but again, it's frustrating for us because they're saying it's a big counteroffensive and what we hear -- see -- hear from you guys is, like, an uptick in fighting. Those two don't match, you see?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: No, I'm with you, Tom.
Q: Yeah.
To me this sounds like the military official is not at all convinced that this a serious offensive that makes sense.
That is likely because it does not make sense and is just another waste of lives.
It is Zelinski's attempt to prove to the 'west' and the local public that Ukraine can be successful and should receive continued support.
Four days ago the New York Times said that Zelenski was "under pressure" to launch the counteroffensive:
As the bloody artillery battle in Ukraine’s east settles into a stalemate, the war appears now to be a waiting game for a long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive.The timing for any move to break the deadlock has emerged as a pivotal strategic decision for Ukraine’s government.
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The initial target of any counterattack is widely assumed to be Russian positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River. Move too soon, though, and the Ukrainian army may prove unready and insufficiently armed to ensure victory, military analysts say. Wait too long, and political backing in Europe may waver as energy prices soar.Political pressure is mounting for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to make a move even as it remains unclear whether his military has amassed the necessary weaponry and manpower.
“The very difficult state of our economy, the constant risks of air and missile attacks and the general fatigue of the population from the difficulties of war will work against Ukraine” over time, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former minister of defense, wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. He said the military should be prepared to advance, rather than defend.
“It makes no sense to drag out the war for years and compete to see who will run out of resources first,” he wrote.
On the same day another NYT piece also dug into the issue:
The timing for any such attack has emerged as a pivotal decision for Ukraine’s government. Both sides are preparing for a protracted war, but Ukraine has greater incentive to try to avoid it with potentially risky maneuvers as early as this fall — before the rainy season turns the countryside into impassable bogs, or energy shortages and soaring costs undermine European support.“An offensive is risky,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va., assessing Ukraine’s options.
“If it fails, the outcome could affect external support,’’ he said. “On the other hand, Kyiv likely sees this as a window of opportunity, beyond which lies the uncertainty of a protracted war against a Russian army that has had time to entrench.”
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But several military analysts say there is a disconnect between Ukrainian civilian leaders, pressing for a major victory, and military leaders who want to ensure they have sufficient troops and combat power before conducting a major offensive.
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“There’s a desire to show international partners that their support will enable Ukraine to win, not just hold on,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, who just returned from Ukraine. “And there is an expectation from the Ukrainian people they’ll be able to liberate their territory.”But he cautioned, “a military offensive needs to be based on conditions on the battlefield,” not in the political arena.
In my view the offensive was launched at the wrong time and with too few troops along too many axes.
Two month ago the Ukrainians had already assembled a decent force in the Kherson area. It then started to loudly talk about the upcoming offensive. Instead it should have attacked immediately along one or two axes to make at least some gain.
After the loud talk the Russians reinforced their side in the area. At the same time they launched an offensive in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainians had to move some of the units prepared for the Kherson offensive to the Donetsk region to prevent a deeper Russian penetration into that frontline. Other units, waiting for the order to attack in the Kherson region, were mauled by Russian long range artillery strikes.
When its forces were assembled the Ukrainian military should have attacked immediately. The long wait made the situation more difficult. To break the reinforced Russian lines now would have taken more troops than were available.
I am sure that the Ukrainian military knew that this offensive would fail.
For political reasons Zelenski ordered them to launch it anyway. There are now another 1,000+ Ukrainian and Russian lives lost for nothing other then some sensational headlines and political optics.
Posted by b on August 30, 2022 at 14:15 UTC | Permalink
next page »SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I mean, listen, are they on the offensive? I think they are.
I guess he/she doesn't read the news:
NYT: Ukraine Launches Southern Offensive, as Inspectors Head to Nuclear Plant
WaPo: Heavy fighting rages in Ukraine's Russian-occupied south
CNBC: Battle for Kherson begins as Russia sends in military convoys; nuclear plant shelling intensifies ahead of IAEA visit
WSJ: Ukraine Aims to Build on Initial Gains in Southern Offensive
CBS: Inspectors set for crucial visit to Ukraine nuclear plant as Ukrainian forces battle to retake Russian-occupied Kherson
DN: Ukraine Begins Counteroffensive to Retake Russian-Occupied Kherson
AJ: Russia-Ukraine live news: Fighting rages in Kherson
BBC: Kherson: Ukraine claims new push in Russian-held region
and don't forget Newsweek --
>What to Know About Ukraine's counteroffensive So Far
>Ukraine Reports Long List of Russian Weapons Destroyed
>Ukraine Says Kherson HIMARS Strikes Successful
>Ukraine Counteroffensive Forcing Russia to Deplete 'Certain Units': Kirby
>Russian Forces 'Under-Manned' as Ukraine Begins
>Russia-Installed Kherson Leader Has Fled to Russia
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 14:33 utc | 2
ukraine is done. zelensky will not be overthrown by his generals until the military rids the nazis in their ranks. and that is impossible because the west are fueling the nazis. and russia knows that so it will just grund away until odessa. then the nazis will hang zelensky and blame him. cant make upa bwtter story. who's got the popcorn?
Posted by: toxik | Aug 30 2022 14:35 utc | 3
There are now another 1,000+ Ukrainian and Russian lives lost for nothing other then some sensational headlines and political optics.
It is to prevent the referendum scheduled for September on Kherson becoming part of Russia.
From reports I’ve read more than 90% of the residents have applied for Russian passports.
Posted by: Down South | Aug 30 2022 14:42 utc | 4
thanks b...
it seems zelensky is more of a pr man then someone with any insight and deep concern for the ukrainian people... in this regard he works well as front man for the cia-m15, but he is essentially leading all the army into slaughter.... at some point this guy is toast... and whoever replace him with, will be toast as well.. only a matter of time before it becomes apparent to all that ukraine is in no position to win anything and it never was...
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2022 14:44 utc | 5
Kherson, seems to be a Ukrainian obsession, first they denied the city was captured by the Russians, from then on they been launching counter offensives all the time in the Kherson region.
Now I got to say Ukranians are fighting way better then I thought they would, but in the end it is all useless.
All this counter offensive talk is probably just a PR operation to keep morale high.
Posted by: Jimmy | Aug 30 2022 14:44 utc | 6
"I am sure that the Ukrainian military knew that this offensive would fail."
According to several russian media, Zelensky ordered the counterattack against Zalushny's council.
Posted by: venice12 | Aug 30 2022 15:00 utc | 7
What I see and feel is total confusion in the NATOplanet. I hope many Neo Nazis from Canada and Poland are among the casualties.
Posted by: Steve | Aug 30 2022 15:15 utc | 8
Jimmy @6: "Kherson, seems to be a Ukrainian obsession,"
Kherson is undamaged and doing very nicely right now under Russian protection because the Nazis abandoned the city without destroying it scorched-earth style. Kherson's existence in its current state puts a spotlight on the lie that it is the Russians who are responsible for the destruction of urban areas. If the Russians are in the Ukraine to destroy cities and kill civilians, then why have they not done so to Kherson? Until the Ukrainians can take the city and destroy it Kherson remains a huge thorn in the side of their propaganda efforts. Ukrainian and western presstitutes have to pretend that it doesn't exist for now, which is a big annoyance for them as it continuously triggers cognitive dissonance.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 30 2022 15:17 utc | 9
I would really like to see the Russians take Nikolaev.
Just do it.
It will give the Ukrainians a bloody nose.
The frontline in Kherson hasn't moved for 6 months!
It also provides a more defensible position for the Russian forces in this area and from then they can decide either to go West for the Black Sea Coast or go north for Krivoy Rog/Nikopol.
I would actually make Nikopol and surrounds the next target as a way to surround Zaporizhzhia.
But first, Nikolaev.
Posted by: Julian | Aug 30 2022 15:25 utc | 10
@ Julian | Aug 30 2022 15:25 utc | 11
i don't know what to think and am in no position to know... i am going to leave the decision making up to others far more knowledgeable then me!
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2022 15:26 utc | 11
it seems zelensky is more of a pr man then someone with any insight and deep concern for the ukrainian people...
Z's regime is run by Kvartal 95 his movie-production company.
He has been kitted out with NATO staff in the form of ex-officio NATO ie British, US, French officers in Kiev and some on the ground.
It is fed Intel by NATO satellites and Rivet Joints.
Whether he is "PR" or not is irrelevant. He is captive in a country taken hostage and used as a proxy to destroy Russia and Belarus and sever the ties with China that Merkel put in place.
Z is irrelevant except as a poster boy for Western stooges. The Russians have a meat-grinder and Z simply sends more and more Ukrainian men into it.
One day the lights will be switched on and women will see how few men there are and wonder just where they went.............bit like those women in Britain after 1918 who had to wait 7 years to have their MIA menfolk declared legally dead so they could get Poor Relief
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Aug 30 2022 15:30 utc | 12
Early days but looks to me like a PR operation and not a military one in intent. If the UAF was able to mass a force capable of taking Kherson back then I think it would be at severe risk from RF fire and air supreriority once in the open. I'm unsure of numbers, but suspect the UAF has few mobile forces left. The reported losses are thus far not severe so suggests a demonstration rather than a serious attack?
Posted by: marcjf | Aug 30 2022 15:32 utc | 13
Kershon isn't that much of an obsession.
The obsession is Antonovsky bridge, they shot at it again today or yesterday. With or without it, there is no strategic difference, but it is what Bojo demands for news.
ZNPP is an obsession, their biggest target. Unfortunately Shoigu doesn't want to or is not capable of stopping the daily shelling and drone attacks. And EU is on the same page, they are sending 5.5m iodide tablets to Ukr.
I wonder if the international team arriving in Kiev to visit ZNPP won't behave like OSCE observers in Donbass or White Helmets in Syria and sabotage the reactor or provide targeting data
Posted by: rk | Aug 30 2022 15:34 utc | 14
"For political reasons Zelenski ordered them to launch it anyway. There are now another 1,000+ Ukrainian and Russian lives lost for nothing other then some sensational headlines and political optics."
War is still just politics by other means. When the politics make no sense, so will the military operations dictated by them.
Regardless, even Zelenski and his demented facilitators must know the game is up, so despite the bad timing and poor implementation, the offensive is likely aimed at halting any further Russian advance along the Black Sea at the Dniepr, than any genuine ambitions of territorial gains.
They must also know the entire Donbass is lost forever now. Their number one priority is keeping Odessa and Nikolaev and the coastline West of the river. Whatever part of that is lost can still be leveraged in exchange for any part of Donetsk still controlled by Ukraine's before winter, if negotiations can happen.
The question remains, how will the energy crisis affect the Western side in pushing for talks, and is Russia still interested in talking at all, now that the favourable momentum in the wider geopolitical war with the West is outpacing that of the local war in Ukraine?
I'm very curious to see what role the 60,000(?) strong Russian volunteer army allegedly waiting in Rostov will have to play in autumn.
Posted by: Et Tu | Aug 30 2022 15:37 utc | 15
All of the US media lives in an alternative universe where the war is a stalemate, Russia has lost more troops than Ukraine, and Ukraine is going to turn the corner (to borrow a phrase from the Vietnam war) very soon. The military brass surely know the reality on the ground while talking to a press that swims in a sea of denial, and their job is to throw the press a few floating objects. When the brass says 'I think they are on the offensive' it means Ukraine is farting in Russia's general direction.
Posted by: Mike R | Aug 30 2022 15:40 utc | 16
State Dept now relying upon the speech writer of VP Harris: taking it to absurd level:
bio labs not for development of weapons (sic):
https://www.rt.com/news/561810-us-ukraine-biolabs-purpose/
Posted by: Taras 77 | Aug 30 2022 15:40 utc | 17
Now this offensive was a stillborn child! Should probably only serve the PR.
The next few days will be interesting to see if the internationals will ever reach the nuclear power plant!
Since this group will arrive via Kyiv or is already there, I doubt that they will see AKW there!
Zelenski (USA) will have said, let them come to Kiev Kyiv is far from being the nuclear power plant!
There will be 1000 reasons for which the Russians are to blame to prevent an arrival !!!
Zelensi = USA can NOT afford this tour internationally under any circumstances!
As far as the "offensive" is concerned, the German media are now noticeably reticent in contrast to the past, it is mentioned on TV but only briefly and is still as promising as it was 2 months ago!
Posted by: mon3 | Aug 30 2022 15:44 utc | 18
I think the "loud talk" by Zelenski and his media-clown-show is/was for western Ukraine and US/NATO public consumption. The "being seen to be doing SOMETHING" syndrome. It is obvious the "senior military official" knows this and wasn't committing to any storyline that might run afoul of those he reports to.
The Russians surely knew exactly where the Ukie buildups were... conveniently consolidating scattered men and munitions within range of the Russian military.
Why chase your opposition all over the countryside when said opposition delivers the men and material to your doorstep.
Posted by: Old canadian | Aug 30 2022 15:44 utc | 19
A lot of words and opinions about what is not done; is done and what should be done. Written by guys confortable sitting behind their keyboards. The only thing they are good at and earn their money. First I prefer the reports of the Russian MoD; short factual. Secondly I feel so sorry for all those young lives lost,no matter which side, for what?
Calson Tucker on Fox TV called to stop those sanctions, he is a brave man.
My energy bill has increased 4x. I am looking for my pitchfork and flail to remove those stupid elites in the Netherlands. With their religious beliefs in the so called freedom, liberal capitalistic system. Their crusades for which I have to pay without being asked, because its is all for my good. I am all for the multi-polar world. Away with the false prophets. Grrrr...
Posted by: DutchZ | Aug 30 2022 15:48 utc | 20
@ Paul Greenwood | Aug 30 2022 15:30 utc | 13
i agree zelensky is irrelevant, except for the western msm where he's quite relevant.. he is the front for all the bullshit the west continue to push.. as i have said many times it is not the narrative war that is of any relevance, but the war and reality on the ground.... what zelensky or the western media say is for the most part - completely irrelevant.. crimea had a referendum, or crimea was annexed by russia... that kind of shit will never end... regardless, crimea is a part of russia at this time..
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2022 15:49 utc | 21
May be helpful-graphics in Russian but self explanatory; (translation of comment below)
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7831459.html
Visual infographics about the shelling of the Zaporozhye NPP and shelled objects. So far, the most dangerous thing that happened was the arrival at the building for the storage of nuclear fuel. The radiation background is still normal, but the shelling continued today. So far, no direct flights have been made to the reactor blocks. The IAEA mission is to arrive at the ZNPP in the coming days.
It is also worth noting that iodine tablets and anti-rad suits began to be imported to Ukraine back in mid-spring.
Posted by: Taras 77 | Aug 30 2022 15:51 utc | 22
Posted by: Julian | Aug 30 2022 15:25 utc | 11
> I would actually make Nikopol and surrounds the next target as a way to surround Zaporizhzhia.
It is Zaporozhye in Russian.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 30 2022 15:53 utc | 23
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyHEVFiucr0&t=13s
YURI's analysis mentions 30-36,000 Ukrainian soldiers, of which 10-15,000 are active
Posted by: zolkas | Aug 30 2022 15:56 utc | 24
Odessa
https://twitter.com/i/status/1564610128967618562
Posted by: zolkas | Aug 30 2022 15:58 utc | 25
Whatever the inspectors might put in their report can always be creatively edited by their superiors to mean the opposite of the authors' intent. That's what happened in Syria, so why not in Ukraine? Sure, the nuclear inspectors may not be from the same organization as the chemical weapons inspectors, but the Empire has its hands in everything.
Posted by: Rob | Aug 30 2022 15:59 utc | 26
seems a bit early for tết.
saw some reporting from among the ukie troops yesterday; the names were changed for obvious reasons but they were very open about how f_cked they are. some of them have to use their own cars and pay for fuel out of pocket. some units have 1 or 2 ak-47s for every 5 guys. other ukie troops have been stealing from them and then they actually see the stolen items later on at a market. an IT guy was using consumer drones for recon but his unit had zero internet access and they had to drive around in their cars to "get bars".
there's a saying i always liked: "a dog can't bark and bite at the same time". they acted like a drunk idiot in a bar fight who yells out "imma punch you in the face!" and then acts surprised when you dodge his sloppy right hook to your face. but then they're taking orders from a coked up fatty who wore make-up on camera for a living before this. i wonder how many of them saw his vogue photo shoot.
Posted by: the pair | Aug 30 2022 16:02 utc | 27
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Aug 30 2022 15:30 utc | 13
"One day the lights will be switched on and women will see how few men there are and wonder just where they went............."
Paul your comment made me think of this song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kveooWmqqr8
I wonder too, when will they ever learn?
Posted by: Fran | Aug 30 2022 16:04 utc | 28
A media report on the battle, and surrounding areas.
"Allegedly, Russian troops defeated the units transferred from the western Ukraine The 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, five soldiers laid down their arms and surrendered.
In addition, the combat aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed five Ukrainian headquarters, three weapons and ammunition depots, as well as 52 artillery units, the Defense Ministry added.
In addition, the Russian military eliminated more than 100 militants of the nationalist formation "Kraken" and foreign mercenaries in the area of the village of Konstantinovka in the Donetsk People's Republic. They also managed to destroy more than 200 militants, including about 40 foreign mercenaries near the village of Oleksandrivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
The Russian Defense Ministry also reported that domestic air defense systems shot down two Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian troops in Mykolaiv region and five unmanned aerial vehicles in the Kharkiv region."
https://ria.ru/20220830/vsu-1813114417.html
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 30 2022 16:05 utc | 29
@ Rob | Aug 30 2022 15:59 utc | 27
true.. one kind of expects that...
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2022 16:06 utc | 30
Zelensky in an emotional speech on Saturday (tugged at my heartstrings) talked about the return of Kherson to Ukraine . . . . in the meantime let's lob some missiles into Kherson lest they forget we yearn for their return to our bosoms.
Can't make this crap up!
Posted by: WTFUD | Aug 30 2022 16:06 utc | 31
@ rk | Aug 30 2022 15:34 utc | 15
The obsession is Antonovsky bridge, they shot at it again today or yesterday. With or without it, there is no strategic difference
That is the only Dnieper bridge between Kherson and the south.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 16:07 utc | 32
Article by Anti Spiegel
sabotages IAEA experts' visit to Zaporizhia nuclear plant
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If Kyiv is to be believed, which Western “quality media” almost unconditionally does, Russia is shooting itself all day long. When civilians are being shelled by artillery in Donetsk, it is said to be Russia. When the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia, which is under Russian control, is fired upon, it is said to be Russia. In Russia, even serious news programs now only ironically comment on this with formulations of this kind: “According to the West, Russia is shooting at its own civilians, soldiers and the nuclear power plant with NATO weapons. We only shoot at ourselves all day long, using the weapons that NATO supplied to Ukraine.”
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The problem is that this bombardment - also at the nuclear power plant - is carried out with weapons that NATO has supplied to Kyiv. These are, for example, the M777 howitzers of the USA with the NATO caliber 155 millimeters. But these details are not reported in the West, they would disturb the desired picture too much.
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Who benefits from the shelling of the nuclear power plant?
The question of who benefits from the shelling of the nuclear power plant sounds absurd, because how can anyone benefit from a possible nuclear catastrophe? But there are actually motives for the shelling of the nuclear power plant.
Russia would have no benefit from shelling the nuclear power plant, because the radioactive radiation would hit Russia and since the West with its media power is already accusing Russia, many people and perhaps also states would blame Russia for a possible catastrophe. That would weaken Russia's position on the international stage and would be a pretext for new sanctions. What's more, this could trigger the NATO defense case and lead to a war with NATO itself. So how would Russia benefit from this?
The situation is different in Kiev, because if, for example, Kyiv is counting on the fact that the nuclear power plant itself will not be damaged by the shelling, which could lead to a super meltdown, but "only" the storage of the nuclear fuel rods, which are located on the site of the nuclear power plant, the leakage of radioactivity would be relatively small, but the propaganda effect would be gigantic if you can blame it on Russia. Moreover, since the escalation of the Ukrainian war in February, the Kiev government's greatest wish has been to draw NATO into its war with Russia. So the Kiev government definitely has motives for shelling the nuclear power plant.
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The situation in Washington is even clearer, because for the US all this is far away and a nuclear catastrophe in Europe would not affect the US. The US also has a desire to spread new horror stories about Russia's alleged barbarism in order to persuade more countries around the world to join the anti-Russian policies and sanctions.
And since interest in what is happening in Ukraine is waning in the West and around the world, which is having a negative impact on the supply of arms and other support to Kiev, Kyiv and Washington are very keen to regain this interest in Ukraine and the West To show the public that they must suffer, freeze and starve in order to put evil Russia in its place.
The motives are therefore clear and it is not Russia that benefits from the shelling of the nuclear power plant.
Kyiv admits the shelling
You don't even have to speculate who is shooting at the nuclear power plant. One only has to listen to the statements from Kyiv, which for some reason do not make the headlines in the Western media.
In mid-August, Ukrainian President Zelensky warned Russian soldiers near the nuclear power plant that they were targets for the Ukrainian army. Selensky spoke explicitly of Russian soldiers who allegedly used the nuclear power plant as cover, implying that there were Russian positions on the nuclear power plant site. That is – I know this firsthand from journalists who have visited the nuclear power plant – definitely not the case. But Selensky openly justifies the shelling of the nuclear power plant.
On August 30, the IAEA reported that its experts had arrived in Kyiv to travel from there to the nuclear power plant. This confirms once again that the Russian reports of the last few months were correct and that it was Kyiv that prevented the visit for months, because if it were the other way around, the IAEA experts would have had to be in Kyiv a long time ago to be able to anticipate the Kyiv allowed to wait, but refused by Russia to visit the nuclear power plant. However, it is now completely clear that Kyiv has only now let the experts into Ukraine.
Russia guarantees the safety of the experts "taking into account the risks that are constantly present there and that are associated with the incessant shelling from the Ukrainian side."
The IAEA experts who will visit the nuclear power plant come from Albania, China, France, Italy, Jordan, Lithuania, Mexico, Poland, Serbia and North Macedonia. Since reports by such experts, as experience with the OPCW shows, are now mostly politicized, it is questionable whether they will come to a common conclusion. It can be assumed that no matter what they see on the ground, the experts from Lithuania and Poland in particular will blame Russia, while the experts from China and Serbia are also expected to be more on the side of Russia. It is questionable whether the IAEA experts will produce a joint report under these circumstances.
Russian analysts suspect that the increased shelling of the Kyiv nuclear power plant is intended to provide an excuse to cancel the experts' visit after all. The visit has been announced for this week, but the next few days will show whether it can actually take place.
Posted by: mon3 | Aug 30 2022 16:08 utc | 33
FYI from ASB militairy news telegram channel;
Kherson - an example of false propaganda and a successful psychological warfare operation.
Undoubtedly, Ukraine has been preparing for this war for a long time, many methods and approaches were developed back in 2015, and possibly even earlier.
Today, in many Western media there is information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the very beginning use the "Operational concept of resistance", which was developed by the United States and allies in the North Atlantic Alliance back in 2013, and allows you to counteract superior enemy forces. This concept provides for an unconventional approach to warfare and total defense, in which both military personnel and the civilian population take part.
As for the civilian population, we are talking not only about the use of mobilized territorial defense, but also about the promotion of important information and psychological warfare. And in Ukraine, all of that is going well.
The pumping of panic into Kherson, Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka and a number of other Russian Armed Forces-controlled settlements did not begin yesterday, but several months before the "counteroffensive" itself.
There is no doubt that the disinformation crackdown on the topic of “breaking through the Russian defences”, lmassive artillery and rocket attacks”, as well as the activation of the DRG, which began yesterday in the Ukrainian telegram channels & took place simultaneously.. all at once— there’s no doubt that these are links of the same chain — coordinated from one “decision-making center”
Yes, the lie was total - Ukraine’s MSM unanimously announced the “evacuation” from Kherson, the predetermined future of the entire region, the "historical moment" of the NWO.
Later, when it became clear that the offensive had stalled, no one was even attempting to refute anything.
This is a psychological warfare operation, and Kiev has succeeded in it.
Ukrainian Dominance in the operational information field really caused panic among the Russians and a feeling of “overcoming” among the Ukrainians.
Although, in fact, there were no Ukrainian tanks near Kherson and Kakhovka.
The enemy must not be underestimated, modern warfare cannot be viewed solely from the standpoint of military tactics. Ukraine is weaker than Russia in terms of weapons, but they have excellent mentors and good manuals.
Therefore, the question is: where is Russia’s answer, where are the photos of corpses in the Kherson region which should be released to the public, where is the psychological warfare? Russia still does not have an offensive initiative in the informational space of warfare.
It is where Russia lacks and Ukraine excels, thanks to western manuals and a great propaganda network thanks to western media. NATO states, especially US and UK are undefeated masters at informational warfare.
This op-ed is from Boris Rozhin, we added our own bits into it and rewrote it so it’d make sense in English. We were in fact writing something very similar to this but he beat us to it, so all credit goes to Boris.
Posted by: DutchZ | Aug 30 2022 16:10 utc | 34
The great gamble begins. Either Ukraine legitimately captures some initiative, or the war ends months before anyone expected.
Posted by: Cesare | Aug 30 2022 16:19 utc | 35
You can only fool so many people so many times. The information war in the United States has steadily eroded public trust in mass media, to the point where people basically have to be epistemology professors to navigate truth and fiction, and assume that what's published via mass media is suspect until independent verification can be provided. Yeah, a lot of people remain glued to their TV screens and gadgets and sop up whatever they're told, but most people don't follow the news. Fox News is our "most watched cable news" network and they're barely competitive with professional wrestling on Monday and Wednesday nights.
Posted by: fnord | Aug 30 2022 16:19 utc | 36
20 - In an age of satellites it is hard to amass troops for any major offensive without the other side knowing. Obviously the Kiev side will be kept abreast of any Russian build-up by NATO but the Russians have their satellites too. It would be hard for the Ukrainian troops to stack up somewhere and keep it a surprise.
Zelensky telegraphs so much about Kherson that I wondered if it is a cunning ruse and they are actually going to give it the old college try somewhere else, but no, they really are that stupid.
Posted by: Waldorf | Aug 30 2022 16:20 utc | 37
Looks like Gazprom has absolutely no patience for any European bullshit, as it cuts gas supplies to France over a contract disagreement. The Engie gas company says that it has secured alternate supplies but at what price? Norway has already delivered the "go to hell" answer to the Europeans looking for Norway to reduce its gas prices, seems Europe only likes free markets when they are in their favour.
Expect Gazprom to keep European feet uncomfortably far away from the fire all Winter, revenge is sweetest when served cold.
I also read that Russia held up some gas supplies to Asian customers (Japan, South Korea?), which would be an indirect way of raising global LNG prices and sticking it to the EU with plausible deniability. Those crafty Russians!
https://www.politico.eu/article/gazprom-reducing-gas-deliveries-to-engie-starting-tuesday/
Western media leaves no doubt about the Ukraine "assault" but Ukraine is more circumspect. Kyiv Independent news-source tip-toes around the "assault."
>Ukraine war latest: Military says counteroffensive in south begins as Russia continues assault on Ukraine
>Ukraine reportedly begins advancing to liberate country's south . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 16:28 utc | 39
@Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 16:07 utc | 33
Not for the army. They've built a new one under Antonovsky too. And a ship for civilians.
Posted by: rk | Aug 30 2022 16:32 utc | 40
To add on to what I just posted, the most popular news shows receive around 3.5 million viewers during prime time. That's it. The prevailing political sentiment in America today is resignation and apathy. The average American is not paying attention to the war in Ukraine and does not buy the idea that Ukraine is something we have to defend. But it's telling that the most popular cable news pundit is Tucker Carlson, who is one of the few voices within the GOP agitating against American involvement in the war.
The infowar works by "flooding the zone with shit," as Trump's old campaign manager described his actions, putting out an ambience of "facts" which channel people's thoughts toward political narratives that are convenient to the powerful. That's the function of the news media, trickle out that information which pushes the current policy line, and avoid publicizing facts that are inconvenient to it. Hence, the dearth of coverage of Ukrainian war crimes and the abundance of black propaganda about Russian forces (Russian generals dying, only to be resurrected; retired Russian generals being drafted, only to find out the Russian general was never called back; and so on.)
Posted by: fnord | Aug 30 2022 16:32 utc | 41
Zelensky in an emotional speech on Saturday (tugged at my heartstrings) talked about the return of Kherson to Ukraine . . . . in the meantime let's lob some missiles into Kherson
@Posted by: WTFUD | Aug 30 2022 16:06 utc | 32
It's well made propaganda, it's not idiotic. They talk for the Western public but those idiots who believe in what Zely or MSM is saying don't know about the daily shelling or missiles for civilian targets. Nothing about petal mines or malls, hospitals or schools hit with himars. Even if someone is talking about it in Western media, they say Russians are shelling Donetsk or ZNPP!
They know how stupid their audience is and the story is well made for them.
Posted by: rk | Aug 30 2022 16:39 utc | 42
There has been an Offensive of Russian and L/DNR Forces since February 24th which hasn't stopped since then...
Posted by: IronForge | Aug 30 2022 16:40 utc | 43
Posted by: fnord | Aug 30 2022 16:32 utc | 42
You sound as if the media helped elect Trump. I cant fathom the narratives you progressives develop for yourselves and believe in!
Posted by: alek_a | Aug 30 2022 16:41 utc | 44
To be honest, even according to Russian sources, the counteroffensive was not a total failure, although it has lost momentum, considering they didn't follow through it today, but are instead sending reserves to Nikolayv and probably regrouping.
I don't think the nazi maniacs in power care too much for 1.200 dead. They are all psychopaths who couldn't care less. it has to be said, though, these are probably some of the best of the - still left - well prepared, trained and battle hardened forces. So I think the quality loss is probably bigger than the quantity loss.
That said, I think the material losses were far more relevant to a crumbling army lacking resources. If the Russian MOD numbers are anywhere close to the truth, it was a huge blow to the nazi intentions.
This battle is VERY important. I hope the Russians are not messing around. If they deal a decisive blow on the attacking forces, they won't be able to hold the Russian forces when they advance later.
It's so much information and propaganda coming from all sides it is hard to really know what is happening. But, considering how much the west and the nazis have been lying all around, I am avoiding their "sources" right now, because usually they get me needlessly worried, until the truth eventually surfaces.
Posted by: Pobeda | Aug 30 2022 16:46 utc | 45
It is all right here. → Predicted Russian - Ukrainian war in 2019 - Alexey Arestovich
Posted by: Uro | Aug 30 2022 16:56 utc | 46
So the counter-offensive was true, and has begun.
Even with 35 BTG in the South, Russia is able to allegedly defeat lots of enemies, but not stop them all.
Ukraine advanced in at least 2 axis of the counter-offensive, and this was just day 1.
This is a victory for Ukraine on the ground.
On the other side, because of this move of BTG, Russia lost its ADVANCE capabilities in the Dobetsk front.
One day PMC Wagner gets one more road, the other day DPR+LPR gets another building, the next day the Chechens get another inch. But that's all.
So that's another victory for Ukraine, in terms of defensive lines.
In Avdiivka, even contraditory reports converge to one point and show why Russia isn't capable of endind the artilery threat to Donetsk from Avdiivka: Russia is now not even capable of grabbing small towns around Avdiivka.
Pesky was the exception that confirms the rule.
That's three victories for Ukraine, and in this case, a huge defeat for civilians in Donetsk, constantly shelled.
The HIMARS, even at a low number around 20 vehicles for 1000 Km front line, really is doing a difference.
Tochka-U had more range (120 Km vs 80 Km) but the accuracy of HIMARS missiles really is making a logistic nightmare for Russia in terms of rear depots, bridges and other infrastucture.
That's four victories for Ukraine, and this one also for NATO/USA's sales department...
Knowing this, now Russia is finishing preparation of reinforcements to the South.
Some say 15k men, others say up to 45k or even 60k men, and respective equipment.
Will this be enough to get offensive capabilities again, or just enough to stop Ukraine's recent victories, mostly moral and political, but now also on the ground?
Talking about atrition war and "meat grinder", wasn't that also Stalingrad's case? And the reason for that, wasn't also to hold the lines at all costs, and wait for the counter-offensive that gave the final blow against the Nazi invader?
Well, either Russia does something significant, ot it might soon taste a bit of its own 80 year old recipe.
My allegiance is for the Donbass people in particular and anti-Maidan/Banderist people of Novorussia in general. The real Ukrainian victims that deserve my support. This is my position since 2014.
I'm neutral towards Russia and nornal Ukrainian soldiers. I'm against Nazis and NATO/Imperialist Fascist pigs. This is my position since I can remember.
My main daily sources: MoobOfAlabama, Military Summary, Defense Politics Aaasia (that has Rybar as one of his main sources), South Front, Erwan Castel's blog, and sometimes The New Atlas.
My politicaly correct wish: peace.
My naughty wish: a landlocked Banderistan. The full liberation of Novorussia, and all land East of Dnieper river.
My concern: it's so much harder said than done, and cost so many lives on almost all sides (not to NATO/USA that's fighting this proxy war from the sofa).
Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 30 2022 17:07 utc | 47
Yesterday’s Google News aggregator featured a Ukraine thread line full of optimistic headlines (western MSM) announcing the “counteroffensive”. Within 8-10 hours, all of those had disappeared and/or were replaced with more mundane reports. That is how, in a glance, one could know the “counteroffensive” had already failed. Today, attention has returned to the nuke plant.
One thing about Zelensky, and this is obvious looking at photos from times prior to the war in contrast to those after February, is that he has a professional - and very good - stylist team responsible for his “look”: from the haircut/beard to, most obviously, the array of finely-cut green t-shirts. Special outfits for more symbolic occasions. The more credulous observers, mostly on Twitter, yammer on about his remarkable “wartime leader” skills without realizing they are responding to a highly crafted image. It is true, well over half of his time since the start of SMO has involved photo shoots and video addresses.
Posted by: jayc | Aug 30 2022 17:11 utc | 48
Pondering the ZNPP situation, I am reminded of the US move to "protect" the Al-Tanf border crossing between Iraq and Syria. I wonder if a significant protective NATO force is planning to insert itself into the area in order to "save Europe" from the "reckless Russians" and their "dastardly plans" to provoke a nuclear disaster in the region. Consider also that the benefit of demining the Black Sea off of Odessa is that, once the might of NATO establishes the line of control at the Dnieper river (with a bridgehead around the ZNPP) the NATO navy (facilitated by Turkaye) can assemble quickly into the region around Odessa as part of the "security operation". We might then end up with cheap Nuclear energy once again being connected into Europe just in time for the winter, a stalemate in terms of territory at the Dnieper (destroy the Antonovsky Bridge with a few NATO cruise missiles) and have a form of peace settlement whereby Russia is "allowed" to supply gas to Germany via NS2 but that a new iron curtain is established along the Dnieper with the US having a major military base in Odessa. You can see how well that might play politically in the West as the US once again rides to the rescue. The problem is - I think that Russia will already have planned for this possibility. The whole Snakes Island thing was probably an early run at testing Russian ADS in the region. I suspect that the Pentagon may have serious concerns about the risk of failing on such a mission but that the politicians may have other ideas. The current narrative certainly fits into such a plan being pursued regardless.
Posted by: Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 17:25 utc | 49
Looks like this could be a battle of the bulge moment, but with far less forces. Still, a good couple of days propaganda to be had for it.
Posted by: Oh | Aug 30 2022 17:27 utc | 50
The more credulous observers, mostly on Twitter, yammer on about his remarkable “wartime leader” skills without realizing they are responding to a highly crafted image. It is true, well over half of his time since the start of SMO has involved photo shoots and video addresses.Posted by: jayc | Aug 30 2022 17:11 utc | 49
All political leaders do this, including Putin. Prior to 2015, Ketchum, a New York based PR firm created the image, including the wilderness shots, the fake judo throws and his laughable hockey prowess.
https://www.fastcompany.com/40437170/russia-quiet-public-relations-war
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 17:34 utc | 51
Posted by: Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 17:25 utc | 50
Maybe payback for what UK/Nato are trying doing in Zaporizhe/Energodar NPP will come later, "mystically" at some UK NPP.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2022 17:38 utc | 52
Long front lines and having less troops dictate Russian tactics as maneuvering defense. Ukies can easily amass 3x ratio of men for attack (bringing lot of equipment is harder due to Russian recon).
So being overwhelmed, it is logical for Russians to make tactical retreat while their long range assets (arty & helos mostly) erode attacking forces. Anything attacker capture become their graves as they have left their prepared defensive positions to get bogged down in places of Russian choosing.
As a PR offensive this makes sense. But to actually take and hold any amount of ground (let alone accomplish some strategic goal) attacking forces need to have lot of reserves and logistic behind - and I doubt they have any.
Posted by: Abe | Aug 30 2022 17:39 utc | 53
That is the only Dnieper bridge between Kherson and the south.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 16:07 utc | 33
There is the rail bridge, on the dam they say.
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 30 2022 17:39 utc | 54
“fake judo throws“ Opport Knocks I don’t think you would appreciate facing the little old man. He is a black belt, and has kept it for a long time. I believe he would tie you in a knot in no time mate.
Posted by: Milos | Aug 30 2022 17:46 utc | 56
Posted by: Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 17:25 utc | 50
Yeah dream on… Continue extrapolating Iraq and Afganistan to Ukraine. “NATO might” heh.
Jeebus what people can be made to believe in when reading propaganda.
(btw. the moment NATO forces enter Ukraine we have WW3)
Posted by: alek_a | Aug 30 2022 17:56 utc | 57
He is a black belt, and has kept it for a long time. I believe he would tie you in a knot in no time mate.Posted by: Milos | Aug 30 2022 17:46 utc | 58
Great to see that image making propaganda works. Watch the Putin judo videos, they are clearly scripted.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/07/18/is-vladimir-putin-a-judo-fraud/
If you were the member of the National Judo Federation of Russia who refused to renew Putin's Black Belt, how long do you think it would take before you were an ex-member?
I am the same age as Putin, but have arthritis, so will politely decline any physical match. However there are thousands of competent judo experts around the world who would not.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 18:22 utc | 58
Posted by: alek_a | Aug 30 2022 17:56 utc | 59
Al-Tanf had nothing to do with Afghanistan or Iraq as you well know (or should know if you feel able to comment). I don’t believe the propaganda any more than the rest of the barflies here but merely speculate upon what NATO might consider to be a way of creating a “win” in the current circumstances. I think it a high risk strategy likely to fail but raise it as a scenario we might wish to monitor.
Posted by: Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 18:22 utc | 59
The Russian deputy governor of Kherson has fled and has confirmed that he’s touring Russia.
“ Earlier in the day, reports emerged that Stremousov had left Kherson after a video he posted appeared to indicate that he was in Voronezh, a Russian city 600 miles from Kherson.
When asked by the Guardian about his location, Stremousov said that he was “travelling around Russian cities, meeting different people for work”.
“I don’t have to sit [in Kherson]. I am the deputy head of the region and have the opportunity to move around … These are working trips.”
“Kherson will remain my base,” he added, denying that he left Kherson out of safety concerns.”
From the Guardian headlines .
How on earth was such a PR nightmare allowed to happen
Posted by: Transfinite Cardinal | Aug 30 2022 18:26 utc | 60
Depending on who was pressuring, any loss is not good for -elenskiyy.
This could be the shove he needs to move somewhere safer. Then the question would be who has the required 'belly-fire' to rally the deflated and restore the balloon?
Turchinov is still available and -elenski's evil media twin spokesperson could rise to the bait.
Past Prestidentum Porkolenko is 4 hours away, in the UK, Kholo the kingmaker's hiding in Switzerland and Yats America's choice has gone full yankee.
Maybe it's Klitch'e turn to grasp the nut-cracker of dignity.
None of them have 'victory' inked on their brows.
Posted by: Kevin Quinn | Aug 30 2022 18:29 utc | 61
How on earth was such a PR nightmare allowed to happenPosted by: Transfinite Cardinal | Aug 30 2022 18:26 utc | 62
True, how hard is it to use a green screen like Zelensky.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 18:36 utc | 62
@Opport Knocks (60) Is it really important to know if Putin is still as skilled at judo as he was as a young man? Is Michael Jordan, age 59, as good at basketball as he was at age 29? Of course not. That some photo shoots of Putin practicing judo were scripted means nothing. I've seen a bazillion pics of professional athletes that were clearly staged. In any event, Putin is President of the Russian Federation, not a judo federation, so who cares?
Posted by: Rob | Aug 30 2022 18:37 utc | 63
Whether Klitschko only wanted to ensure that she was safe from the wrath of Zelenski and the Nazis with his separation from wife and children remains to be seen!
Maybe he was threatened because he didn't stay on track?
And that's why he tried to distract himself from his family with the divorce ???
Thesis but maybe something to it?
Posted by: mon3 | Aug 30 2022 18:38 utc | 64
Forbes, Jul 31
The Bridge Battle In Southern Ukraine Is Escalating
Russian engineers are scrambling to repair a strategic bridge across the Dnipro River into occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine, a few days after Ukrainian artillery rendered the bridge impassable.
But the Russians aren’t taking any chances. At the same time they attempt to repair the Antonovsky Bridge on the southern edge of Kherson, they’re also deploying additional pontoon bridges—safely assuming that Ukrainian forces will continue targeting bridges as they shape the Kherson battlefield ahead of a widely-anticipated escalation of their counteroffensive in the region. . .here
The Antonovsky Bridge has been deeply pitted by artillery (but reparable methinks). The nearby railroad bridge has been knocked out. . .more bridge photos including railroad and pontoons --> google kherson bridge - images.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 18:38 utc | 65
Roger | Aug 30 2022 16:21 utc | 39
Then you have this..https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Japanese-Firm-Signs-New-LNG-Deal-With-Russias-Sakhalin-2.html.
Sanctions anyone?
And this...https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Croatian-Energy-Company-Caught-Up-In-Massive-Gas-Fraud.html
So much gas to sell, gotta keep the war machine churning. Heck Alberta Natural gas was "selling" in the negatives for a bit last week.
Posted by: Heavymetal101 | Aug 30 2022 18:44 utc | 66
@ Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 17:25 utc | 50
this speculation has been out their since the day they started bombing the nuke plant.... and no... russia is not as stupid as the western msm would have you believe!!
another day, another boneheaded comment from opport knocks... such is life...
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2022 18:45 utc | 67
I agree with the Old Canadian. This seems to me like a propaganda move for the Western audience.
It's still a volatile situation and always keep in mind that UA is given very good SIGINT and other information from their overlords. Even a computer gamer playing some semi-serious strategy game knows how important good intelligence an reconnaissance is.
I very much like the info given by Erwan Castel on his blog [1], it just assumes that you understand French. But his info seems very reasonable and adapted without all the propaganda bullshit.
[1] https://alawata-rebellion.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Verdant | Aug 30 2022 18:49 utc | 68
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2022 18:45 utc | 69
Thanks James.
I only meant to add the Al-Tanf reference to the current narrative as I saw it as potentially relevant. Note to self: Must try not to feed trolls…
Posted by: Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 19:03 utc | 69
Kherson is a little pimple of Russian military on the west side of the Dnipro River. If the two armies were evenly matched, this would be an extremely untenable position for the Russians .. the river is to their back and there is little strategic depth. So why are the Russians in Kherson?
It seems like the Russians are daring the Ukrainians to attack. And why not? With their overwhelming air and artillery superiority, its the perfect way for the Russians to bleed the Ukros white
Posted by: Callmelennie | Aug 30 2022 19:08 utc | 70
Many subjects were discussed at yesterday's White House press briefing, especially Trump and classified documents, but Ukraine was not one of them. . .here. . .Ukraine is so. . .yesterday, for Washington? . .and the elections are only a couple months away, with foreign policy usually not a factor. Foreigners killed and displaced by a US-provoked war, who cares, unfortunately.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 19:13 utc | 71
@Callmelennie | Aug 30 2022 19:08 utc | 72
. . for the Russians .. the river is to their back and there is little strategic depth.
One could posit, sarcastically perhaps, that lack of strategic depth sharpens the minds while it eliminates any avoidance of doing battle, there being no other alternative.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 30 2022 19:19 utc | 72
I believe TOE of a US infantry Brigade is 4000-5000 people. Of those my guess would be that 2000 or 2500 are actual trigger pullers (at best). So a US infantry Division composed of 3 Brigades would include 6000-7500 actual combat infantrymen.
Thus Russian claims of 1200 KIA (and perhaps 2000 injured, but who knows since the AFU seems to have a real problem evacuating and treating the wounded) would mean that 50% of the effective combat strength of a US Infantry division would be spent.
This of course presumes that the formations involved in the "offensive" were actually up to strength, which would be a bit unusual given the time and nature of the fighting over the last 6 months.
Posted by: Dan Farrand | Aug 30 2022 19:39 utc | 73
few tanks doesnt make a counter offensive, it’s barely a counter-attack.
Can somebody explain how Ukronazis can move troops around shithole Ukraine?
How Ukraine is still ‘on offensive’?
Where is the russian "Air Force"?
Moscow needs to take more seriously this ‘special operation’, or it will never ends!
It’s time for Russia to increase the efforts
Posted by: Chessmaster | Aug 30 2022 19:41 utc | 74
Posted by: Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 19:03 utc | 71
Okay, you were speculating on what NATO may want to achieve or consider a success for them. I did not get that from the post: it seemed to me as if you were trying to convey a message of RF weakness and NATO might. I still think your scenario is really outthere.
There is however a real possibility of setbacks for RF at the moment since they are objectively stalled for now. Yeah, there are reasons we can think for that from our chairs (civilian deaths, drawing the enemy out, strategic pause, waiting for catalysts - my favourite etc) but the facts are that the momentum is not there at the moment. They even need to defend.
Its all OK, you cant expect to win all the time, but war has a certain psychology of initiative and unfortunately attackers seem to reach a plateau after some time. This is the real danger I see here and also why I think in order to preempt that, RF and allies are actually waiting for a “new” start or a reset to happen catalysed by some event. A new phase.
Attacking is a tough bussiness, you need to eliminate the enemy and watch your back. Then install civilian government, rebuild basic services etc.
Posted by: alek_a | Aug 30 2022 19:42 utc | 75
I just listened to mil summary. Dima saya that this attac is just a deception. the real attack is to the north.
Why is Russia not using iets big bombs; like fobs.
Posted by: mario | Aug 30 2022 19:45 utc | 76
It also doesnt help that we have little info at the moment. For example IntelSlava has been quite infrequent the
last two days.
Posted by: alek_a | Aug 30 2022 19:47 utc | 77
Interesting times.
The second season of mud arrives with the autumn rains. One can no longer hide the military transports hiding in the tree shelter belts. As the vehicles leave freshly churned-up mud tracks. Ouch.
The under-resourced military forces from country 404. Have only two choices. Soon the rain will turn to sleet.
With no cold weather gear or hot food. Your choice to live. Only has one option.
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Aug 30 2022 19:52 utc | 78
Posted by: Abe | Aug 30 2022 17:39 utc | 54
Understandable but whats the sense respectivly point behind Russias underequiped and undermanned operation?
Imagine Zenit St Peterburg would only send 4 players to Dynamo Kiew.
Posted by: Chessmaster | Aug 30 2022 19:55 utc | 79
Moscow needs to take more seriously this ‘special operation’, or it will never ends! It’s time for Russia to increase the efforts Posted by: Chessmaster | Aug 30 2022 19:41 utc | 76
Your assumption is that Ukraine is the ultimate goal. Clearly there is a bigger picture with respect to NATO, the US hegemon's control of Europe/Middle East, multi-polarity and the ascension of the BRICS
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 19:56 utc | 80
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Aug 30 2022 19:52 utc | 82
I heard Himars trucks do not leave tracks in the mud. They can hover.
Posted by: alek_a | Aug 30 2022 19:57 utc | 81
It didn't fail. It gave Zelensky the opportunity for him to strut that US Army Green T-shirt and look and sound tough. It also gave him the chance to demand that more US and EU taxpayer dollars be handed to him immediately. Therefore, in the words of an American President who was born on third base with a silver spoon in his mouth thinking he'd hit a triple .... "Mission Accomplished!"
Posted by: Draper | Aug 30 2022 19:58 utc | 82
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 19:56 utc | 84
Duly noted. U re right there is certainly a bigger picture but the picture hangs on ONE NAIL the Ukro nail.
If u cut off the nail the complete bigger picture fails to ground GAME OVER
Posted by: Chessmaster | Aug 30 2022 20:06 utc | 83
The reason for the approval of the pipeline
.
TASS/. Gazprom will suspend natural gas supplies to France’s Engie from September 1 in view of non-payment for July deliveries, the Russian gas holding said on Tuesday.
Gazprom Export, the export arm of the Russian holding, did not receive in full payments for gas supplied to Engie in July under effective contracts as of the close of business on August 30, the Russian gas producer said. Further supplies of natural gas to a foreign buyer are prohibited under the presidential decree if the buyer fails to pay in full within the payment term under the contract.
Posted by: mon3 | Aug 30 2022 20:06 utc | 84
Posted by: Macpott | Aug 30 2022 20:01 utc | 87
.
The reason for the approval of the pipeline
.
TASS/. Gazprom will suspend natural gas supplies to France’s Engie from September 1 in view of non-payment for July deliveries, the Russian gas holding said on Tuesday.
Gazprom Export, the export arm of the Russian holding, did not receive in full payments for gas supplied to Engie in July under effective contracts as of the close of business on August 30, the Russian gas producer said. Further supplies of natural gas to a foreign buyer are prohibited under the presidential decree if the buyer fails to pay in full within the payment term under the contract.
Posted by: mon3 | Aug 30 2022 20:08 utc | 85
@ Rob | Aug 30 2022 18:37 utc | 65
No, the authenticity of Putin's past or present judo skills are not relevant to anything important. Please read my subsequent comments in the context of my original post @52 concerning the use of PR professionals by all significant political leaders (not just Zelensky) to create a desired public image.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 20:13 utc | 86
i don't know how good Putin is or ever was a judo, but I would trust what he says more than any western leader, which is more relevant to his stature vs Zelensky.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 30 2022 20:15 utc | 87
“And there is an expectation from the Ukrainian people they’ll be able to liberate their territory.”
How does anyone really know what the Ukrainian people expect from the war? So much of what's reported to Westerners about the Ukraine is just smoke and mirrors. It's rhetoric intended to idealize Ukrainians and the post-Maidan government, and to justify US/NATO's involvement in the country's affairs.
My suspicion has always been that Ukrainian internal security forces, including secret police, are closely monitoring the population. Any Ukrainians who express war-weariness, defeatism, or desire for peace are probably threatened into silence.
Posted by: GW | Aug 30 2022 20:15 utc | 88
PopCornPaul | Aug 30 2022 14:44 utc | 7
"Can't afford any, I'm in the UK!"
Don't you worry, a shipload of cheap Ukrainian corn is on it's way to a port near you - vessel movements. Slava Ukraina, slava popcorn!
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Tinxx | Aug 30 2022 17:25 utc | 50
I certainly share your concern that something like this may happen sooner or later. NATO will do it if they see it as do-able. And Russia would go out of its way in order to not step on NATO's toes in Ukraine. In Syria, it wasn't only Al-Tanf. There was also the race to the Tabqa Dam and to Deir ez-Zor. Russia even respected all those illegal Turkish watchtowers that popped up around Idleb, denying Syria her rightful territory.
"I suspect that the Pentagon may have serious concerns about the risk of failing on such a mission but that the politicians may have other ideas."
Could you blame those politicians? They can count on Russian compliance, timidity, iffiness.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Aug 30 2022 20:19 utc | 89
Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 19:56 utc | 84
"Clearly there is a bigger picture with respect to NATO, the US hegemon's control of Europe/Middle East, multi-polarity and the ascension of the BRICS"
There sure is, and that picture's title is "The Long Shot". Taube auf dem Dach, Spatz in der Hand...
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Aug 30 2022 20:25 utc | 90
BREAKING / TASS
Mikhail Gorbachev dies
Mikhail Gorbachev dies, hospital says.
Posted by: mon3 | Aug 30 2022 20:29 utc | 91
@scotch bingeington
"Taube auf dem Dach, Spatz in der Hand..."
Hahaha der war gut.
Frage ist nur wer ist die Taube und wer der Spatz.
Posted by: Chessmaster | Aug 30 2022 20:33 utc | 92
Russians destroy a dozen Ukrop ammo dumps, a couple score units of armor and artillery, and exterminate thousands of Nazis. Trollwoda types be like: "Meh."
Ukrops hit some soft non-military targets with million dollar charity gift missiles, kill some civilians, and give a Russian soldier a mild bruise. Trollwoda types be like: "Yeah! Woot woot woot! Take that Putin!"
The poor trollwoda types are truly desperate for anything that can be used to confirm their delusional worldview.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 30 2022 20:41 utc | 93
@ Posted by: alek_a | Aug 30 2022 16:41 utc | 45
I know that when you say "the media," you mean "media outlets that aren't conservative," but in the literal sense of the term "media," yes, the media helped get Trump elected. Mass media was used to make sure no one ever forgot about Trump. He was constantly in the news, constantly in the back of everyone's heads, and conservatives were kept constantly aware through their own outlets and through the liberal ones that liberals saw him as the most dangerous candidate in the 2016 GOP race.
What failed Trump in 2020 was that he had run through his legitimacy with enough people and conservative media was no longer convincing, even identified more often as the propaganda outlets that they are. He had a solid base, some 40% of the electorate who would never abandon him because it had become part of their identities to support him, or who they saw as their only option in a depraved, fallen, world such as ours. But the conservative media is subject to the same principle as outlined in my original comments, that movements, institutions, parties, and so on, can exhaust their legitimacy in the eyes of enough people such that their propaganda efforts cease to be a significant force in their favor. Trump by 2020 had lost his luster. He wasn't an alternative to some status quo, he was the status quo, and that status quo was a miserable period of unmitigated spread of disease, mass unrest, and a panicking president who began to wield federal law enforcement agencies as a personal army and make overtures to far right militias and street fighting gangs. Not to mention the blatant corruption at all levels of government that made a mockery of his campaign promise to "drain the swamp."
To bring this back around to Ukraine, does that description maybe sound a little familiar? It seems to describe both sides of the current war pretty well. But all's not hopeless. The working class may cinch it yet. So long as it organizes itself as the working class fighting for itself, to institute its own governmental authority and overthrow all existing ones. I don't think it's hopeless, but we have to propagandize our own efforts.
Posted by: fnord | Aug 30 2022 20:41 utc | 94
watcher@143
K@165
Jen@184
An excellent analysis by Jen regarding the Ottomans and the millet system and one that makes my case. To that I would add the honestiores/humiliores dichotomy of its Anatolian predecessor and the direct feudalism of the Achaemenidae. In each instance the structure sharply and practically defined the relationship of the individual to the larger community. It is why monarchianism and republicanism tend to be historically durable, while democracy degrades into tyranny.
To answer Jen’s question first, I would define “basic liberties and rights” as behaviors enjoyed in widest application amongst the society (coupled of course with the most direct proximation of the consequences of those behaviors upon those that enjoy them). I would define “government” as the system that restricts those behaviors . The analysis is not a crude one whereby “less restriction = greater liberties,” but rather HOW that restriction promotes liberties within the structures it has created. To answer K’s argument regarding the effects of imperialism, irrespective of the number of internal and external casualties the diffusion of liberties still tends to be of the widest application. It may or may not be true that the extremes may become more pronounced, though most argument in this regard tends to rely on unreliable antedote and less on systemic analysis.
To Watcher I would say that the foundation of a form of government is not its measure. Monarchy is not military dictatorship, though it may begin as such, and the best example is the dichotomy between Cromwell’s Commonwealth and the kingdoms of Charles I and Charles II. Neither is slavery a good example, as it as been foundation stones of democracies (Greece, France) and republics (Rome, United States) as well.
It is the sharp definition of the relationship of the individual to the larger community that makes monarchy so durable, within which liberties evolve. Watcher’s Saudi Arabian example is suspect, as the kingdom is less than 100 years old and not a suitable candidate for historical analysis. Even there however the evolution is toward a diffusion of liberties throughout the widest application. This is achieved, I believe, because the “divine mandate, sole authority” concept is the least abstract of all the historical examples, provides an unambiguous model of comparison (the individual of society vs. the sole personification of state) and is less susceptible to degradation over generations.
Republicanism, while more abstract, has a structural mechanism that compensates. The concept of “authority” is distributed more widely, but so too are the personifications of liberties. So while an individual’s relationship with authority is more abstract, the liberties enjoyed under Republican authority are less so. It is a model inverse to monarchianism and the only one that seems to be as durable historically, though a bit less so. The Swiss Confederacy and its various permutations are the best examples.
Democracy, like fascism, fails because both the personification of state AND the personification of liberties are too abstract. It is difficult to say where Communism falls in all of this, though it is interesting to note that the Russian example was built upon the corpse of monarchy. The Chinese example is similarly structured, but using the less proximate bones of historical dynasties rather than in direct succession. The Korean example is merely gangsterism and should not be considered Communism as such. This monarchial template in Communism may explain its relative durability vis-a-vis fascism.
So, I stand by my original proposition that monarchianism has the best historical record of preserving liberties and rights. It's not an emotional argument, just history.
Posted by: Maxx | Aug 30 2022 20:50 utc | 95
Pentagon: We don't know what is happening *wink wink*, but may we direct you to the lies of the Ukrainian government for your answers.
I have heard some reports that Germany is all out of stockpiles to send to Ukraine if it doesn't want to sacrifice it's own national defense. So much for years of support to the Ukrainians unless it's hopes and wishes which amounts to being useless.
Posted by: Prometheus | Aug 30 2022 20:50 utc | 96
A "funny" thing I just seen on Dutch TV . now they talking about no more visas for Russians traveling to the EU.
Of course the dutch gov is in favor of banning all Russians to travel to the EU just like the Baltic states, but France and Germany are against it.
Seems like we are sinking to a new moral low ground, seems like human rights and stuff are all just a charade over here. Government media is like gloating like really, like they are proud of it.
They don't seem to realise of course that these kind of general anti Russian measures will only mean more support for Putin.
The elites here in the west are so stupid it is beyond belief really.
Shit is gonna hit the fan real soon over here because of high inflation and economic recession is coming according to major banks and all of this because of the economic sanctions war against Russia and the only response the elites here in the EU have is to double down on the anti Russian propaganda and sanctions BS that has caused all the economic problems.
Posted by: Jimmy | Aug 30 2022 20:55 utc | 97
The working class may cinch it yet. So long as it organizes itself as the working class fighting for itself, to institute its own governmental authority and overthrow all existing ones. I don't think it's hopeless, but we have to propagandize our own efforts.Posted by: fnord | Aug 30 2022 20:41 utc | 99
Don't hold your breath. I spent roughly 1/2 my 40 year working career in each of a unionized and non-unionized work environments. There is a huge difference in the speed and effectiveness of decision making. Absent heavy handed government interventions, the entrepreneurs will run circles around most unionized worker managed arrangements.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 30 2022 20:57 utc | 98
@Posted by: Taras 77 | Aug 30 2022 15:40 utc | 18
Taras 77
Thanks for the link. I have not been able to read rt for several months. RT got banned in the UK. I never thought they were that interesting to warrant being banned, and I don't really approve of vpns, but if you are in the uk, and have got a pc, you can download a different browser called Opera. Pretty much the same as Firefox, Internet Explorer or Chrome..
Opera has got a VPN button. which I think semi scrambles your IP address, (to make you more identifiable - to anyone who maybe interested in your thoughtcrimes - it also slows down communications)
But Opera is free, and if you click on that VPN button, you can read RT, which seems to have significantly improved, since they got banned in the UK
They may still actually have some real journalists working for them, though they are probably all being paid by the usual suspects CIA etc. It doesn't mean they have to have to agree with the Management or Resign.
Just tread a fine line. The pen is mightier than the sword, unless you have been brainwashed or terrified to write what you are told to write, rather than your own analysis and words.
Tony
Posted by: Tony_0pmoc | Aug 30 2022 20:59 utc | 99
Posted by: Chessmaster | Aug 30 2022 19:55 utc | 83
> Understandable but whats the sense respectivly point behind Russias underequiped and undermanned operation?
Russian forces are not under equipped or under manned. They are mostly LDPR forces + natinal "guard" units + special forces, with Russian army professionals in support/technical roles.
They have all tech they need and just enough men to do it, and no more. 2 reasons:
- keep US/NATO calm as number of men is enough to take Ukraine but not conquer whole Europe
- keep 90% of Russian forces in reserve ready, to keep NATO from getting silly ideas, like sneak attack somewhere else, while Russia is looking at Ukieland
Posted by: Abe | Aug 30 2022 20:59 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (30082022)
As a result of the defeat of the offensive of the Ukrainian troops carried out on instructions of Zelensky in Mykolaiv-Krivoy Rog and other directions, the enemy suffered large-scale losses.
The effective actions of the Russian group of troops destroyed 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armored combat vehicles, 8 pickups with heavy machine guns and more than 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen during the day.
When repelling the enemy's offensive, Russian troops defeated units of the 128th separate mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was transferred to participate in the operation from western Ukraine. Five servicemen of this brigade laid down their arms and surrendered.
The strikes of high-precision ground-based weapons in the area of the settlement of Alexandrovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, hit: a temporary deployment point and an ammunition depot of the 1st Tank Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. More than two hundred militants were killed, including about 40 foreign mercenaries, more than 20 armored vehicles and a large number of artillery shells.
In the area of Konstantinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, concentrated fire strikes were inflicted on the temporary deployment point of mercenaries from the Foreign Legion formation, as well as the command post of the nationalist Kraken formation. As a result of the strikes, more than a hundred militants were destroyed, as well as seven pieces of military equipment.
In the city of Krivoy Rog, Dnipropetrovsk region, high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the production workshops of the Intervzryvprom plant, which produced explosives and other products for Ukrainian troops.
Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery against military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue.
During the day, five control points were hit, including the 108th and 65th mechanized brigades in the areas of the settlements of Vodiane of the Donetsk People's Republic and Veselyanka of the Zaporozhye region, the 35th and 36th brigades of the AFU marines in the area of Nikolaev, the nationalist formation in the city of Kharkov, as well as fifty-two artillery units, manpower and military equipment in 142 districts.
Three warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Sarny, Rivne region, Krivoy Rog, Dnipropetrovsk region and Vernopolye, Kharkiv region.
Two Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force were shot down by Russian air defense means in the area of the settlement of the Red Banner of the Mykolaiv region. Five unmanned aerial vehicles were also shot down in the areas of the settlements of Valeryanovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chubarevka of the Zaporozhye region, Kapitolovka, Izyum and Krasnoe of the Kharkiv region. In addition, three Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles and 53 multiple rocket launchers were intercepted in the air in the districts of Kherson, Novaya Kakhovka, Kherson region, Antonovsky Bridge and Kakhovskaya HPP. Including: 44 – "HIMARS", five "Alder" and four "Hurricane".
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 278 aircraft, 148 helicopters, 1,837 unmanned aerial vehicles, 370 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,539 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 822 multiple rocket launchers, 3,357 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 5,136 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: Summary | Aug 30 2022 14:32 utc | 1