Iran Confirms Drone Sale To Russia – But What Will It Buy In Exchange?

August 13, 2022

Small birds do not taste well and their small bones makes eating them a fickle. I will have overcome that though as I will now have to eat some crow.

On July 12 Moon of Alabama headlined:

No, Iran Will Not Deliver Armed Drones To Russia

In March this year we were treated to an onslaught of obviously false claims that China would deliver weapons to Russia for the fight in Ukraine.
…
Now an equally stupid claim was launched by the very same liar who launched the fake Chinese weapons claim.

White House: Iran set to deliver armed drones to Russia – AP – Jul 7, 2022

…
Russia has absolutely no need to buy drones from Iran. Besides that it is dubious that Iran would be able to deliver some and certainly not 'several hundreds'.
…
The whole issues is just a talking point designed to put Iran and Russia into the same 'baddies' binder for Biden's talks in the Middle East. The countries there may not like Iran but they will certainly not allow for a condemnation of Russia. The whole idea is, as many others Sullivan had, stupid to begin with.

So no, there will not be any Iranian drones going to Russia or fly over Ukraine.

I, like the other Iran-watch writers I quoted, was wrong.

Elijah J. Magnier, who has excellent contacts within the 'axis of resistance' led by Iran, reports:

Russia buys 1,000 drones from Iran and expands the level of strategic cooperation

Iran and Russia had expanded the level of their strategic cooperation in various fields, most recently in space when a Russian rocket launched an Iranian satellite into orbit from the Russian launch facility in Kazakhstan. Iran will undoubtedly benefit from renewing its bank of objectives and identifying more targets related to its enemies based in the Middle East, mainly the US military bases and Israel. Moreover, Russia has signed a contract with Iran to buy 1,000 drones after Iran delivered a few planes and a simulator on which Russian officers trained: they successfully used the first drones in Ukraine. This move is considered unprecedented for a superpower to buy its drones from Iran. Tehran considers this to be recognition of its advanced and effective military industry, achieved despite 43 years of US sanctions on the “Islamic Republic”.

The buy seems to be about bigger long endurance drones, not small tactical ones like the Orlan 10 which Russia mass produces itself. Writes Magnier:

According to well-informed sources in Iran, “the purchase of drones by a superpower like Russia is an important indication confirming the quality and development of Iranian industry, which has succeeded in producing the most advanced drones such as the Shahid 129 which can fly for a period exceeding 24 hours. This is what attracted Russia, especially for use in its war in Ukraine.”

Russia has developed a number of drones for itself. The Orlan-10 is good for artillery observation and electronic warfare on the tactical battalion level. Then there is the 200 kilogram Korsar which has a tactical strike role. There is also the ZALA-421-16E5, a …

… tactical operation unmanned aerial reconnaissance system. The UAV flight duration is 6-7 hours, the flight range is up to 150 km, the monitored area can exceed 21,000 sq km in a single launch.

That is better than the Orlan 10 but still at the basic tactical level.

Anything above that, an operational-tactical drone that can stay up for a whole day and night and continuously cover the front of one or more brigades is something that Russia has not had so far.

The Iranian Shahed 129 is an equivalent to the U.S. MQ-1 Predator. It has infrared and day optics, a laser designator for precise targeting and it can carry four precision-guided bombs. Its range is 1,500 kilometer which is significantly more then current Russian drones have. Since 2014 these drones have been used by Iran in Syria so Russia will already have has some direct experience with their battle field performance.

I am sure though that Iran will take several years to deliver 1,000 of those. But that may not matter. A few dozen will be sufficient enough for now to continuously cover the whole 2,000 kilometer frontline in Ukraine at the necessary depths.

It is unusual for Russia to buy weapons from other states without any other compensation. I therefore suspect that this is not a one sided deal but that Iran has promised to buy some significant Russian systems in exchange.

An order of several dozen of the most modern version of the Suchoi Su-35 air superiority fighter would make sense. They would finally allow Iran to get rid of the way too old U.S. made F-4 Phantoms and Grumman F-14 that it has been flying (and crashing) for ages.

Iran and Russia may want to wait for the outcome of the still ongoing nuclear agreement negotiations before any official deal will be announced. It simply would be unwise to disturb that process now and to give hawks in the U.S. more arguments to let the deal fail.

The further cooperation between Russia and Iran though is independent of the outcome of the nuclear agreement negotiations. It will succeed as nothing that the U.S. could throw up against it is able to influence either side.

Posted by b on August 13, 2022 at 14:29 UTC | Permalink

Comments

I totally agree with those who see this affair as a strategy more than anything else. Russia has the capacity to produce drones of equal strength, or even better. But this deal has uplifted the Iranian drone industry to a much higher level. Other countries would be in line now to buy the drones from Iran. It is a public knockdown of the Turkish over-hyped gadget. This deal is a proclamation of a new and deeper strategic cooperation between the two countries. Israel is apparently losing its influence with Russia.

Posted by: Steve | Aug 14 2022 8:27 utc | 101

Tehran considers this to be recognition of its advanced and effective military industry, achieved despite 43 years of US sanctions on the “Islamic Republic”.

Tehran considers this to be recognition of its advanced and effective military industry, achieved because of 43 years of US sanctions on the “Islamic Republic”.
Fix that. The neoliberal idea that exiling countries from an international trade order will somehow not lead to greater autarky is as stupid as the German idea that indiscriminate bombing of civilian parts of British cities would lead to the British being more and not less likely to concede defeat.
Free trade neoliberalism makes you dumb.

Posted by: Altai | Aug 14 2022 8:33 utc | 102

Israel is apparently losing its influence with Russia.
Posted by: Steve | Aug 14 2022 8:27 utc | 100
Exactly! After Israel sided with nazi Ukr and kissed their asses it was no way back to the old good relations with Russia. Satellites today and probably very soon weapons will start to go to Iran.

Posted by: rk | Aug 14 2022 8:40 utc | 103

Bravo b! Integrity never goes out of style. Thank you once again.

Posted by: Deltaeus | Aug 14 2022 8:42 utc | 104

Machine translation of an interesting article’s paragraph about the semiconductors war.
Russia can also influence the global semiconductor industry right now. First of all, block the supply of sapphire substrates that are used in each processor. Our country controls up to 80% of the world market. And it will be very difficult to replace this asset with other manufacturers – it requires highly qualified personnel, 30 years of continuous work to reach a particularly clean regime and conditions of zero seismic activity. Secondly, Russia holds in its hands all supplies of rare earth metals used for etching microchips. Thirdly, the domestic mining industry provides 45% of palladium consumption and 90% of neon, which are necessary for the production of semiconductors. Time will tell whether this and other assets will be used by Russia in the current semiconductor war.
https://topwar.ru/199987-poluprovodnikovye-vojny-xxi-veka.html

Posted by: Paco | Aug 14 2022 9:37 utc | 105

b.
Your fortitude and ability to occasionally eat small birds is why this site is trusted.
On the other hand, the general inability of many to believe Iran could actually supply technology of use to superpowers like Russia (or China) is in my opinion evidence of the level to which Iran is under-estimated in general and countries like Russia are ascribed God-like capabilities and a level of superiority they do not deserve.
All are finite. All are mortal. All turn to ashes in the end.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 14 2022 10:00 utc | 106

Iran has been blocked from modern air force technology for 40+ years. So it had to focus on drones (and missiles) instead. That makes their military doctrine much more drone-centric as that of Russia or the US.

Posted by: Wim | Aug 14 2022 12:00 utc | 107

Posted by: rk | Aug 13 2022 15:11 utc | 10
When Trump comes back? Perhaps, but he’s one fraudulent indictment away from disqualification. My big takeaway from b’s excellent overview is Iran now has a SAT above the region…I will let that sink in all day, and twice on this Sunday…

Posted by: ERing46Z | Aug 14 2022 12:18 utc | 108

Yes, it is very possible Trump might not be able to be elected again. The party will win anyway, so the power will still be back to him.

Posted by: rk | Aug 14 2022 12:30 utc | 109

The SMO has shown that Russia did not put enough effort into drone development and deployment. Though I would argue it’s less the large, attack drone than the small drones Russia needs. The Stavka didn’t recognize that the god of war should have a raven on his shoulder to see from above.
But realistically, nobody can do all things well and everyone miscalculates. It’s not like Russia did nothing right. Hypersonics and air defenses were its focus and these have paid off well. Plus do we know that drones will be effective in a peer-to-peer conflict? We do know that a lot of EW capability on the Russian side is being held back. Whether this deal is to fill a hole, protect Russian tech or something else might be immaterial. It is a geopolitical statement to the US that shows multiple nations with real power coalescing around their common enemy.

Posted by: Lex | Aug 14 2022 13:07 utc | 110

@34 S
Also IMU’s

Posted by: Tzrr | Aug 14 2022 13:28 utc | 111

Thanks b for all your hard work. As we know, there’s very little integrity in journalism these days. Garlic, lemon pepper, salt and sage makes most birds taste good. Cheers to all!

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Aug 14 2022 13:55 utc | 112

Unless i missed it, nobody mentioned that the counterpart of the sale of UAVs could be civilian produce.
There is a terrible drough affecting lots of countries, one of those being Iran, which was affected already last year.
The lack of rain has curtailed hydopowerproduction (not only in Iran) and also the output of thermal plants (including nuclear) located along rivers. That led to rising energy costs long before february 24th.
If i am not misstaken, Iran has had to import energy to cope with the heat wave.
Because of the drough Iran is also very short on grain.
The regime is – as any gouverment – dependant on its ability to feed its population, and therefore saling drones for russian grain, fertilisers and energy makes sense.
Also not to forget, GMO are forbidden in Russia and it means its grain and seeds are all the more valuable.

Posted by: GC45 | Aug 14 2022 14:05 utc | 113

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Aug 14 2022 5:39 utc | 98
Bingo!

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 14 2022 14:18 utc | 114

Russia also has Orion which also can serve to cover a lot of the Ukrainian front. In some ways (range) it is less capable than Shahed 129. Russia also has (but probably not in mass production) more capable platforms like Orion 2 and Inokhodets, which exceed the capabilities of Shahed 129 (but probably exceed the cost as well). Adding to that Grom, Helios, Okhotnik, I don’t think there’s some serious lack of capability in Russia as far as drones are concerned. Sure, a drone exactly like Shahed 129 is probably not present and it can occupy some middle ground and it’s probably more cost efficient for some activities.
I think there are additional reasons for Russia to purchase those drones: as an enhancement of relations with Iran, as a sign, as a gesture and a deserved recognition of the quality of Iran’s drone program. Iran definitely needs systems from Russia and has been patiently waiting for that. This can open the door. Also, Russia can operationally study and experiment with the use of those drones like Shahed 129 and adjust their experience and schedules as their newer and larger drones are coming into the game. This is very important and in ways harder than the designing and building a drone alone: how to integrate in the whole scheme the use of such drones, how to utilize them maximally, and how to design future drones to address certain things.

Posted by: Band Itkoitko | Aug 14 2022 15:39 utc | 115

To admit you are wrong, not something that happens in west. Very big of you b. (oh yeah, crows(ravens) are nasty birds. Just ask Noah)
Sanctions. Dial up the sanctions when the news hits the front pages.
Russia and Iran have much commerce outside of arms already. Iran, advancing it’s product by making them iso 9000/9001 (quality management system) reliant, allows it to sell internationally with much ease. I was involved in the certification of a large plant in mid 90s, and there are many more stories like mine.
I saw a comment up-thread, that mockingly compared Iran to Sudan. Brilliant. All those camel-jockeys, ay?
The only camel I ever saw was in a zoo.
This, again, has to do with the dual mentality of weak/strong Iran. It is so weak that it could be attacked at any moment. But wait, it is so strong that it should be feared, demonized, and sanctioned.
As for those saying the nuke deal will be cancelled again, if it is signed: the signing is only about releasing Iranian funds currently held in foreign banks. Once that’s done, Iran, like Russia, won’t be selling to the un-friendly vassals in bank accounts that could be seized.
Oh, and this: the west wants to talk about the regional issues, not just nukes.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Aug 14 2022 17:20 utc | 116

You should never apologise for admitting you got something wrong. Nobody gets everything right, except maybe God.

Posted by: paul | Aug 14 2022 17:21 utc | 117

It is a fascinating time to be alive.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 13 2022 18:48 utc | 55
Thank you for that psychohistorian. I would just change that a little to say: It is fascinating to be alive at anytime.
We, yes the collective We, just don’t realize how privileged and unlikely setting foot on this wonderful place called earth, is. Most of the time we just get so carried away that we don’t realize that We are actually breathing.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Aug 14 2022 17:22 utc | 118

Hi b,
while Mr. Magnier’s analyses of middle eastern affairs are often spot on, assigning value of absolute truth to them as in “Iran Confirms Drone Sale To Russia” seems to me a bit over the top and not a sound basis for eating crows…
In his piece of analysis that you link he only mentions “well-informed sources” which, as you have noted time and again, has the same value as “an unnamed official”.
Honestly I don’t see any confirmation from (official) Iran in the piece: just analysis with a good dose of speculation.
Having said that, I like your blog and your reporting.
Cheers

Posted by: Usul | Aug 14 2022 17:48 utc | 119

@gerimov #54
You still didn’t answer the question.
Why exactly would Iran – which has an enormously more extensive, longer period, sanctions regime enacted on it – be any more able to access military electronics as compared to Russia?
You need to be more credible or clear in your statements.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 14 2022 20:37 utc | 120

@Tom Pfotzer #66
Iran Hijacked US Drone Says Iranian Engineer

Iran guided the CIA’s “lost” stealth drone to an intact landing inside hostile territory by exploiting a navigational weakness long-known to the US military, according to an Iranian engineer now working on the captured drone’s systems inside Iran.
Iranian electronic warfare specialists were able to cut off communications links of the American bat-wing RQ-170 Sentinel, says the engineer, who works for one of many Iranian military and civilian teams currently trying to unravel the drone’s stealth and intelligence secrets, and who could not be named for his safety.
Using knowledge gleaned from previous downed American drones and a technique proudly claimed by Iranian commanders in September, the Iranian specialists then reconfigured the drone’s GPS coordinates to make it land in Iran at what the drone thought was its actual home base in Afghanistan.
…
The techniques were developed from reverse-engineering several less sophisticated American drones captured or shot down in recent years, the engineer says, and by taking advantage of weak, easily manipulated GPS signals, which calculate location and speed from multiple satellites.
…
In 2009, Iran-backed Shiite militants in Iraq were found to have downloaded live, unencrypted video streams from American Predator drones with inexpensive, off-the-shelf software.

So it depends on which incident is referenced. What I remember is closer to the 2009 time period where drone feeds were not encrypted – meaning anyone could, with a modicum of equipment, access at least some of the data/control links to the first generation drones.
The article above is from December 2011, so it wasn’t much later than the original video captures that proved data feed access.
The first Predator drone flew in 2005.
Note also I am 99% sure these military drones use the military GPS channel – which I have said before is not “stronger” in any way, simply that this channel encrypted, contains more data and that there are actually at least 2 channels within it.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 14 2022 20:48 utc | 121

@122 c1ue: Thx for the followup. Very interesting.
I was thinking that the Iranians would have to jam the comm line coming from the U.S. controller, regardless of whether or not the control data stream was encrypted, in order to post and then sustain (not have it counter-manded by U.S. controller) new landing coordinates.
It also didn’t occur to me that the landing would be fully automatic; instead I expected that the drone would need real-time guidance by the operator, given the lack of sufficient precision of GPS. Of course, military GPS is likely way more accurate than public GPS.
That drone may not actually have been guided by GPS but instead by other aircraft loitering in the vicinity, which would make the hijack operation way more difficult to pull off.
So, that implies that not only did the Iranians intercept, decode, and then impersonate the control stream, but they also were able to ID where the control stream was coming from, and then jam that U.S. controlled source, and have an appropriately placed and provisioned transceiver(s) in place to do all that comm work.
That’s quite a bit of learning curve.
I also have to say I nearly fell out of my chair when you said the data stream wasn’t encrypted. If that’s truly the case, somebody big got busted down to private on that one. Hard to fathom that happening.
There’s a bit more to the story, though. The Iranians were then able to reverse engineer, then re-engineer using locally available materials and processes successor drones that apparently are good enough for the Russians to want to integrate into their defense systems.
As I said, I think that we Westerners are underestimating the Iranians.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 14 2022 21:19 utc | 122

I’m still finding feathers in my food since I ate crow regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I told anyone bored enough to listen, that if they hadn’t invaded by now, they never would. Finally something that can honestly be blamed on Russia.
It’s not surprising to me that Russia is buying (or bartering for) Iranian drones. Russia has a lot of balls in the air and only so many resources to focus on each one. Developing and updating aircraft, ships, submarines, rockets, etc…would have left little left for a drone program. Iran, on the other hand, has been focusing on drones and missiles for decades. That specialization (much more than any alleged nuclear weapons program) is what has kept the Americans and Israelis from attacking Iran.
Conservative estimates are that there are tens to hundreds of thousands of missiles ready to launch at convenient targets, if Iran is attacked. Like South Africa, the decades of sanctions on Iran has forced them to develop a self sufficient, sophisticated and extensive defensive weapons program. I would not be surprised at all if their drones are among the best in the world…and all while under some of the harshest sanctions ever issued.
The arrogant west thinks of Iran as a hillbilly backwater. Yet they have been able to keep the notoriously unreliable F-14’s flying for over 40 years. That alone should make a doubter think twice, but nope.
Even in the western MIC controlled press, they are having a tough time playing down the significance of Russia getting Iranian drones. Their response? Sanctions. Gee…how will Russia and Iran ever survive that?

Posted by: Joe Walker | Aug 15 2022 1:30 utc | 123

Ah…here’s what I forgot. I fully expect Iran’s drones to be repaid with Russian S-300/400, and similar systems. Iran can do drones but Russia kinda rules the AA missile world.

Posted by: Joe Walker | Aug 15 2022 1:40 utc | 124

@Tom Pfotzer #123
This is not to discredit the work the Iranians accomplished re: drone takeover, but the reality of attacking unencrypted and “security by obscurity” targets is that they really aren’t very hard to attack.
The communication links are unquestionably satellite, for example. Drones are flown out of Creech, and all the fancy “national security porn” movies where people in a bunker in DC watch special forces troops sneak in to kill targets – all that is based on Satellite comms.
Satellite links are ridiculously easy to jam because one of the major problems with any form of satellite comms is multi-path signals. The original signal is distinguishable from the same signal, bounced off a tree or a building or the ground, only by time stamps – basically the direct line of sight path should always be the correct one.
The problem is that in reality, the closer the multipath signals are, the less likely that the shortest path is the correct one. So one very easy way to actively jam a target is simply to block that direct path via a jammer above the target. Alternately, if you have access to the control signal itself – you change the time stamps. etc etc.
So the fancy drone the Iranians landed was taken over by likely 3 steps:
1) Jam the original GPS signal. Pretty easy because these are really weak
2) Jam the control signal. Harder but again, very possible if the target is already spotted and a jammer can be inserted above it.
3) Insert a new GPS signal which tells the drone that it is near its base. This is actually the most interesting part of the deal. Did the Iranians really break the encryption of the military GPS channel? Or was the drone really using the civilian channel (which is unencrypted? Another possibility is that the drone switches to the civilian channel if the military channel isn’t working – something which really should not ever be happening but I can totally see a programmer inserting this option into the decision tree.
And another really interesting potential method is having a receiver in/near the base in question which is re-transmitting the GPS signal from that location, to the drone in question. This would be super cool because then you don’t need to break the GPS encryption; it is just record, transmit and replay.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 15 2022 2:07 utc | 125

Odd you don’t mention here that the tech for this drone is clearly taken from a drone the US lost over Iran, and then reverse engineered.

Posted by: duende | Aug 15 2022 6:30 utc | 126

There was video footage of a Russian drone hitting four Himars posted a few weeks back, the video is provided by the drone that fires the four missiles.
I was skeptical of the authenticity of the video because I wasn’t aware Russia had any drones armed that way.
I wonder if that was actually an Iranian made drone?

Posted by: Haassaan | Aug 15 2022 10:33 utc | 127

duende @127: “Odd you don’t mention here that the tech for this drone is clearly taken from a drone the US lost over Iran, and then reverse engineered.”
Probably not so much. A drone is just a big model airplane that can be flown by a particularly good autopilot. I doubt the Iranians have any problem with building model airplanes of any size. That leaves just a couple places where tech hides in a drone that the Iranians could reverse engineer.
First place is the AI that flies the drone while the operator goes to refill his coffee mug. It is possible that Iranian engineers could extract the executable code from the drone’s “brains” then decrypt and decompile it, then study the source to figure out how the AI works. Though the Iranians probably did this just to see how American drones tick, it is doubtless faster just to independently develop their own AI.
The second high tech area of interest would be the drone’s sensor suite. Nifty optics, accelerometers, and phased array radars and such are cool and all, but the big trick is in the manufacture and production of these items, and the software to make them useful to an AI autopilot. The question here is not so much one of secrets that the Iranians could not discern on their own, but whether the Iranian domestic machine tool industry can produce tooling to, for instance, manufacture decent quality optics. I am pretty sure they can manage that, though.
Do keep in mind that the Iranian education system produces more domestic STEM graduates than the United States does. That is, there are more new Iranian engineers each year than there are American ones. It is not like they have a shortage of talent.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 15 2022 13:31 utc | 128

@SOI (71) If you were president of Russia, we would truly have World War-III.

Posted by: Rob | Aug 15 2022 15:12 utc | 129

New York, New York…… where disparate things come together as is the case with Iran.
MK Bhadrakumar comments on the JCPOA agreement with consideration of Rushdie’s role in it. “an X factor in JCPOA”
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-iran-deal-dangling-in-the-air/
What does the New York press have to say about it? Well the Post reports on it a little:
“ “You know that look, that ‘it’s the worst day of your life’ look? He came in every day like that,” Desmond Boyle, the owner of a boxing gym where Matar has been a member since April, told CNN.
According to a report published by Vice, citing a Middle Eastern intelligence official, the 24-year-old allegedly had been in direct contact with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on social media before Rushdie’s stabbing.”
https://nypost.com/2022/08/16/salman-rushdie-is-articulate-talking-to-cops-after-attack/
Hey, speaking of Iran and crow and New York, singer Sheryl Crow will be performing in New York for The Big Climate Thing in midSeptember. That’d be on Haudenosaunee Confederacy territory?

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Aug 16 2022 13:48 utc | 130

Back to Main