Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 04, 2022

How Pelosi's Visit Hurts Taiwan

When Nancy Pelosi made her 'woke' flight to Taiwan the U.S. seemed to hope for a Chinese military reaction to it. It positioned an aircraft carrier and two amphibious landing ships in the region. It also shipped additional fighter planes to Japan and South Korea.

Chinese and international commentators drew up potential scenarios for a clash like a forced diversion of Pelosi's plane. However, the Chinese government kept its calm. The reintegration of Taiwan into China is not an urgent matter. It had planned for longer term measures designed to press the pro-independence government in Taiwan into obedience.

Chinese military exercises will now be held around the island without regard for what Taipei claims as its borders. These missile launches, sea and air maneuvers will not be threatening enough to cause a dangerous military confrontation. But they will be repeated over the next years and will steadily move closer and closer to Taiwan's coast.


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The median line between China and Taiwan, never officially recognized but adhered to, will now be ignored.

China essentially decided to boil the proverbial frog of Taiwanese independence by slowly, slowly increasing the pressure:

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is closing off six areas around Taiwan from Thursday to Sunday and is expected to hold drills, including live-fire exercises, in some areas within 12 miles of the island.

The drills are expected to be bigger than the missile tests China launched during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis that was sparked in 1995 by the US granting a visa to former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui.

Both Chinese and American analysts believe that the unprecedented military exercises could become routine, a consequence of Pelosi’s provocative visit.

Taiwan depends on sea trade. The Chinese military maneuvers will essentially block it for the next few days. It is demonstration of what might come should China get really serious.

This military posturing will be aided by selected economic sanctions designed to remove the support for Taiwan's current pro-independence government:

China also imposed sanctions on Taiwan because of Pelosi, including a ban on the export of natural sand, and a halt on imports of fish and fruit products from the island.

A  ban on the export of natural sand, 90% of which Taiwan imports from China, may sound harmless. But if you live on a rock in an area prone to earthquakes you may want to build your high rises with concrete. No sand no concrete. Building costs in Taiwan will rise and the government will be blamed for it.

Taiwan's soft power will also be curbed:

The authorities will take punitive measures against the "Taiwan Foundation for Democracy" (TFD) and the "International Cooperation and Development Fund" (ICDF), two organizations that have close ties with diehard secessionists, said Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.

Enterprises that have donated to the two funds, such as Speedtech Energy, Hyweb Technology, Skyla Corporation, Skyeyes GPS Technology, are to be prohibited from conducting any transactions or cooperation with mainland organizations, enterprises and individuals. The persons responsible for these enterprises are banned from entering the mainland.

The people of Taiwan did not support Pelosi's grand standing:

News sites ran polls, with almost two-thirds of UDN’s respondents saying the visit was destabilising. Talk radio discussed preparation and escape plans, and walked listeners through their growing anxieties.

That wasn't helped by Pelosi's tone deafness:

At a news conference with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, Pelosi was asked what she could offer Taiwan to offset the possible costs the island would incur — including economic retaliation from China — as a consequence of her visit.

She answered that her visit was part of a broader U.S. effort to have “better economic exchanges” with Taiwan, and she said “significant” Taiwanese businesses are already planning to invest in manufacturing in the United States.”

"You will get sanctioned while we will steal your prime advantage in chip manufacturing," is not exactly an uplifting message.

Other countries which Pelosi also visited felt sidelined by her anti-China antics:

Ms. Pelosi’s visit may also damage a push by the White House to shore up support against China from key allies in the region who analysts say have felt sidelined by the trip, and frustrated by the spiraling tensions. With much recent attention eaten up by China’s fulminations over the visit, allies suggested that they wish they had been better consulted ahead of Ms. Pelosi’s journey.

South Korea, where a recent economic imbalance and trade deficit has raised concerns, snubbed Pelosi:

President Yoon Suk-yeol plans to speak by phone with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi later Thursday, his office said, after officials said earlier that a meeting between the two is not planned as Yoon is on summer vacation.

Pelosi wasn't amused:

Korea Pro @southkoreapro - 2:00 UTC · Aug 4, 2022

Yoon administration and the ROK National Assembly did not send any delegation to welcome Pelosi’s arrival last night. Pelosi was not pleased about the situation, multiple reports said.

All together Pelosi's trip was not the success she may have thought it would be. It was a trap she had set for herself when it first 'leaked' that she would visit Taiwan. If she had not gone the Republicans would have blasted her as a coward. Now she will carry the responsibility for further deteriorating U.S. relations with China.

Taiwan, which all the brouhaha is allegedly about, will further lose in its economic relations with China and will wither away as an economic power.

Eventually the people of Taiwan will vote for another party and unification will again come into sight.

Posted by b on August 4, 2022 at 9:14 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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@ karlof1 | Aug 5 2022 18:29 utc | 199 with the report of Japan acting like Germany and Russia/China responding...thanks

Japan is the same type of colony that Germany is and expecting them to come out of the shackles of WWII is delusional. Japan't political system has been reformed to act as a pliant colony of empire and along with bankrupting the country, their regional historical discrimination is used by empire against others in the area.

The unwinding of all this historical manipulation by empire will take decades and that empire energy will always need to be guarded against, lest it reappear.....and assuming it gets crushed now.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 5 2022 18:58 utc | 201

Down South @ # 198.

Your comment referred to an 'expert' opinion that USA'S Naval Power gives Amerikkka "escalation dominance".
Ever since I read obout Russia's SSN 22 Sunbburn ramjet-powered anti-ship missile, circa 2003, I've been waiting for SOMEONE/ANYONE to abandon surface ships as viable/sensible war machines.
But no, they seem to be as popular as ever despite the fact that Britain, "Israel" and Russia have lost naval vessels to such missiles - mainly, in my opinion, because the window of opportunity to intercept them is too brief and the target acquisiton and firing procedures are too slow.

So, pretty soon, someone(?) with a rip-snorter, state-of-the-art Navy, is going to have a very painful collision with REALITY (the new one).

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 5 2022 20:08 utc | 202

Posted by: julianmacfarlane | Aug 5 2022 8:00 utc | 165:

......Taiwan is a proxy base,.......

Absolutely right. You see things coolly and objectively indeed. Proxy bases are wonderful bases. The people who live in those proxy bases believe they are supposed to play certain proxy roles, such as fighting and dying for their proxy masters. Their fighting and dying are wonderful antics for the masters, because they give the master grounds and statistics to prove to zombies elsewhere in the world how bad the targeted enemies are. The proxy folks also gladly dish over their hard earned money to buy junk weapons and travel expenses for the proxy masters' operatives. It's a scam made perfect by Lucifer.

Yup! The Empire has MANY proxy bases. Two of them are kinda hot right now: one in Central Europe call Naziland; the other in West Pacific called Half-Jap-Half-Muricaland. The Empire is having a good time while these last.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Aug 5 2022 20:40 utc | 203

BaDaShi @172

Two regimes one common core.

I were taught by CPC education system that Taiwanese are our compatriots(同胞), Taiwan's Ali Mountain(阿里山) is the most beautiful mountain, Ri Yue Lake (日月潭) is the most beautiful lake, and one day Taiwan will be reunited with Motherland.

Still the same for today's students on Mainland China.

Between 80s till 2000s, Taiwan pop singers, such as Deng Lijun(邓丽君), Luo Dayou(罗大佑), Li Zongsheng(李宗盛), Qi Qin(齐秦), were very popular among Mainland Chinese.

When Luo Dayou(罗大佑) toured Shanghai and Beijing the first time, the stadium were full to the brim. Middle aged men and women were singing loud with him.

Of course, Deng Lijun(邓丽君, Teresa Teng) is among the most beloved. One of my favorites is 在水一方 (On the other side of the water). Its lyrics is taken directly from 诗经 (The Book of Poetry , which compiles Chinese poems from 11th BC to 6th BC.

Does the young generation in Taiwan still listen to these old songs?

Posted by: lulu | Aug 5 2022 20:41 utc | 204

Just come across this: Few hundred years ago, a 秀才 (Xiu Cai, ) from Taiwan for the Imperial Exam.

(秀才, Xiu Cai, means scholar who passed the Imperial Exam and was qualified for an offical postion in the Imperial administration.)

For those who are interest in the history of Taiwan, I'd like to recommend UNLOCKED Silk and Steel Podcast EP#50-Taiwan History Part 1.

For current events: The real reason Pelosi visits Taiwan & US strategic ambition

Posted by: lulu | Aug 5 2022 21:11 utc | 205

A very informative twitter thread about current DPP & Taiwan:

1. The DPP hasn't had any policy successes since Tsai's election in 2016. All it has going for it politically is its political strategy of building on a "distinct" Taiwanese identity to make the youth feel good about being Taiwanese with little to back it.

2. Pelosi's visit is part of the DPP's strategy to make Taiwan seem more visible. The DPP and Tsai also control much of the media at this point, and Tsai has partnerships with various internet influencers, forming a very deep echo chamber that's not grounded in reality.

Continue reading: DPP & Tsai Ing-wen

Posted by: lulu | Aug 5 2022 21:20 utc | 206

It seems to me Pelosis visit to Taiwan was designed not to show the Chinese or Taiwanese anything but to begin Taiwanese and American companies based in Taiwan to begin moving operations to the US. The US just passed the CHIPS act which has the intention to bring chip manafacturing to the US. Companies with operations in other countries have little incentive to do so at the moment.

BUT

War conflict or threats thereof make companies nervous. They are after profit and profit requires stability. Thus Pelosis move has nothing to do with strengthing the alliance between Taiwan or China but instead getting taiwainese industrialist elites to preserve their income source in the US by moving manafactuing operations there. After all the Chinese countermeasures and missile exercises have played directly into the empire of lies hands.


Politics is a dirty dirty game and the us is only after plundering and conquest not alliances.

Posted by: Hornswaggler | Aug 6 2022 1:51 utc | 207

KNow something ?
There's a lone wolf website, all by itself, dedicated to the..
UNpeople,
Undermensche,
PEOPLE WITH NO VOICE !

Whiteys all rally behind their celebrated tw, Tibet, Uighurs, HK, ....

Well Im non PC, non trendy.
I'll continue to lend my voice to
the People with no voice.

----------
https://theunpeople.blogspot.com/

Posted by: denk | Aug 6 2022 3:32 utc | 208

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China is calling for worldwide unity against the totalitarian terrorist entity known as the United States of America.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202208/t20220805_10735987.html

Posted by: Jeremy | Aug 6 2022 4:44 utc | 209

So many bar-flies pontificating on things that they know nothing about. The mood in China is one of fury, and (trust me) you all have no idea how bad a dragon gets when you wake it from it's slumber. Those that pontificate on China being weak, and other such nonsense deserve the sheeting metal hell that is coming your way. As this video clearly illustrates.

Posted by: Rufus Arrr | Aug 6 2022 10:58 utc | 210

Bad link. My bad. Try this one instead.

Posted by: Rufus Arrr | Aug 6 2022 11:01 utc | 211

Lessons for India from the Taiwan standoff, by Happymon Jacob

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/lessons-for-india-from-the-taiwan-standoff/article65732968.ece

Posted by: Antonym | Aug 6 2022 11:46 utc | 212

other such nonsense deserve the sheeting metal hell that is coming your way. As this video clearly illustrates.

Posted by: Rufus Arrr | Aug 6 2022 10:58 utc | 210

My daughter went to public Chinese school from 2010 to 2015 and there was absolutely no military trainings for kids as shown on your vids.

Posted by: xiao pignouf | Aug 6 2022 12:50 utc | 213

Rufus Arrr | Aug 6 2022 11:01 utc | 211

I was wondering if you subjected us to 53 minutes of your boorish blathering, interspersed with Chinese military porn, just to tell us that Israel, like China, is a serious country? Granted, the word serious is open to mucho semantic confusion, but there's no doubt that the international community considers Israel to be an apartheid state. Seriously.

...inhumane acts...committed in the context of an institutionalized regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other racial group or groups and committed with the intention of maintaining that regime...

Certainly one of the reasons that China is considered to be a serious nation is that it has consistently supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization in international forums.

Granted also is that this support has yet to be seriously tested.

Posted by: john | Aug 6 2022 13:13 utc | 214

My daughter went to public Chinese school from 2010 to 2015 and there was absolutely no military trainings for kids as shown on your vids.

Posted by: xiao pignouf | Aug 6 2022 12:50 utc | 213

I think experiences vary here.

In one case I heard the senior classes were pitched against eachother with what sounded like PLA war games equipment

In another the senior class learned to shoot real guns

Personally I spent a summer at a military barracks, mostly learning marches. This was in elementary. Nominally it was voluntary but the school put up enough pressure that very few skipped. I doubt a majority enjoyed it but I think nearly everyone remembers it with some fondness

I'm sure that some never participate in anything like this at all.

In any case, I don't it should be given any consideration at all in the context of military readiness. It's just as dumb as saying Chinese soldiers are cry babies because they're all only childs.

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 6 2022 14:29 utc | 215

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