Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 04, 2022

How Pelosi's Visit Hurts Taiwan

When Nancy Pelosi made her 'woke' flight to Taiwan the U.S. seemed to hope for a Chinese military reaction to it. It positioned an aircraft carrier and two amphibious landing ships in the region. It also shipped additional fighter planes to Japan and South Korea.

Chinese and international commentators drew up potential scenarios for a clash like a forced diversion of Pelosi's plane. However, the Chinese government kept its calm. The reintegration of Taiwan into China is not an urgent matter. It had planned for longer term measures designed to press the pro-independence government in Taiwan into obedience.

Chinese military exercises will now be held around the island without regard for what Taipei claims as its borders. These missile launches, sea and air maneuvers will not be threatening enough to cause a dangerous military confrontation. But they will be repeated over the next years and will steadily move closer and closer to Taiwan's coast.


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The median line between China and Taiwan, never officially recognized but adhered to, will now be ignored.

China essentially decided to boil the proverbial frog of Taiwanese independence by slowly, slowly increasing the pressure:

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is closing off six areas around Taiwan from Thursday to Sunday and is expected to hold drills, including live-fire exercises, in some areas within 12 miles of the island.

The drills are expected to be bigger than the missile tests China launched during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis that was sparked in 1995 by the US granting a visa to former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui.

Both Chinese and American analysts believe that the unprecedented military exercises could become routine, a consequence of Pelosi’s provocative visit.

Taiwan depends on sea trade. The Chinese military maneuvers will essentially block it for the next few days. It is demonstration of what might come should China get really serious.

This military posturing will be aided by selected economic sanctions designed to remove the support for Taiwan's current pro-independence government:

China also imposed sanctions on Taiwan because of Pelosi, including a ban on the export of natural sand, and a halt on imports of fish and fruit products from the island.

A  ban on the export of natural sand, 90% of which Taiwan imports from China, may sound harmless. But if you live on a rock in an area prone to earthquakes you may want to build your high rises with concrete. No sand no concrete. Building costs in Taiwan will rise and the government will be blamed for it.

Taiwan's soft power will also be curbed:

The authorities will take punitive measures against the "Taiwan Foundation for Democracy" (TFD) and the "International Cooperation and Development Fund" (ICDF), two organizations that have close ties with diehard secessionists, said Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.

Enterprises that have donated to the two funds, such as Speedtech Energy, Hyweb Technology, Skyla Corporation, Skyeyes GPS Technology, are to be prohibited from conducting any transactions or cooperation with mainland organizations, enterprises and individuals. The persons responsible for these enterprises are banned from entering the mainland.

The people of Taiwan did not support Pelosi's grand standing:

News sites ran polls, with almost two-thirds of UDN’s respondents saying the visit was destabilising. Talk radio discussed preparation and escape plans, and walked listeners through their growing anxieties.

That wasn't helped by Pelosi's tone deafness:

At a news conference with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, Pelosi was asked what she could offer Taiwan to offset the possible costs the island would incur — including economic retaliation from China — as a consequence of her visit.

She answered that her visit was part of a broader U.S. effort to have “better economic exchanges” with Taiwan, and she said “significant” Taiwanese businesses are already planning to invest in manufacturing in the United States.”

"You will get sanctioned while we will steal your prime advantage in chip manufacturing," is not exactly an uplifting message.

Other countries which Pelosi also visited felt sidelined by her anti-China antics:

Ms. Pelosi’s visit may also damage a push by the White House to shore up support against China from key allies in the region who analysts say have felt sidelined by the trip, and frustrated by the spiraling tensions. With much recent attention eaten up by China’s fulminations over the visit, allies suggested that they wish they had been better consulted ahead of Ms. Pelosi’s journey.

South Korea, where a recent economic imbalance and trade deficit has raised concerns, snubbed Pelosi:

President Yoon Suk-yeol plans to speak by phone with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi later Thursday, his office said, after officials said earlier that a meeting between the two is not planned as Yoon is on summer vacation.

Pelosi wasn't amused:

Korea Pro @southkoreapro - 2:00 UTC · Aug 4, 2022

Yoon administration and the ROK National Assembly did not send any delegation to welcome Pelosi’s arrival last night. Pelosi was not pleased about the situation, multiple reports said.

All together Pelosi's trip was not the success she may have thought it would be. It was a trap she had set for herself when it first 'leaked' that she would visit Taiwan. If she had not gone the Republicans would have blasted her as a coward. Now she will carry the responsibility for further deteriorating U.S. relations with China.

Taiwan, which all the brouhaha is allegedly about, will further lose in its economic relations with China and will wither away as an economic power.

Eventually the people of Taiwan will vote for another party and unification will again come into sight.

Posted by b on August 4, 2022 at 9:14 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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All this episode showed is how China is all talk and no walk.

Let them impotently fire rockets into the sea, I have read that shooting at bodies of water holds great significance in Chinese culture, it being 5,000 years old and much more mature than ours.

Posted by: Wokechoke | Aug 4 2022 9:21 utc | 1

I am sure China has studied Russia's response to Western restrictions. Many provisions can be applied to Taiwan.
A ratchet.

But the people of Taiwan are surely also aware of the value of peaceful cooperation as an autonomous region over being not much more than a missile firing range.

Posted by: Powerandpeople | Aug 4 2022 9:25 utc | 2

Up to the February this year lot of people were saying "Russia is all talk no action". 5 months later, Ukraine is burning and nazis are being stacked up. In year or 5, most likely there will be no US missiles or any threats for Russia in Europe at all, as it was stated by Lavrov himself months back as a main goal.

So, China is all talk no action... Let revisit that in few years.

Posted by: Abe | Aug 4 2022 9:30 utc | 3

Concerning the embargo of sand:

Sand is also used for producing (semiconductor-) chips, a sector in which in which Taiwan is pretty busy.

Posted by: Goingo | Aug 4 2022 9:31 utc | 4

"Eventually the people of Taiwan will vote for another party and unification will again come into sight."

I don't know about that. Our favorite nazi promised good relations with Russia before election. Bojo said the same lies years ago. Orange man will come back to mess with China and Iran and cancel nuclear agreements again.

Posted by: rk | Aug 4 2022 9:46 utc | 5

The penalties being imposed on Tapei are trivial compared what are the likely penalties being quietly imposed on us. The PRC has a cornucopia of economic actions it can take against us. Just a taste:

1) gradually pulling out of financial investments. Gradually so as to not have Washington freeze Chinese assets held in the US. Note, this is more than just Chinese gov’t no longer buying US gov’t debt. Chinese private investors and companies have many trillions of financial assets invested in the US.

2) accelerated de-dollarization - instead of the gradual de-dollarization, the Chinese can accelerate bi-lateral trade using Yuan or local currencies.

3) Export bans - Chinese can ban all
Sorts of ‘strategic goods’ from
Being exported to the US. The PRC economy no longer depends on exports to the US.

Posted by: Exile | Aug 4 2022 9:46 utc | 6

You can say China "remained calm" but the rest of us see the CCP and its mouthpieces as being borderline hysterical.

China was obliged to back down (on this occasion) because it didn't want its trillions of dollars of US assets confiscated a la Russia.

As in most countries, the biggest threat to the ruling class of China is their own people, not external enemies like the US or Taiwan deciding they'd really rather not be ruled by the psychopaths of the CCP.

Again, I ask: b supports the independence of the Donbass; why isn't he supporting the (de facto) independence of Taiwan? Who in their right mind would want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party?? Despite the name, they're even more fascistic than Kiev.

Posted by: Observer | Aug 4 2022 9:50 utc | 7

First post is always from a troll huh?

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 9:53 utc | 8

All this episode showed is how China is all talk and no walk.

Posted by: Wokechoke | Aug 4 2022 9:21 utc | 1

Well, they haven't decided to emulate the bombing of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia, Syria, etc. etc. and as far as I know Middle Eastern wedding parties are safe from Chinese drones.

So I suppose from the Western pov the Chinese are remarkably reticent to murder huge numbers of people in wars of choice.

I'm not sure that's a bad thing.

Posted by: ZX | Aug 4 2022 9:55 utc | 9

b says: "Eventually the people of Taiwan will vote for another party and unification will again come into sight."

Polling suggests that will not happen any time soon. China has a multi-decade US propaganda disadvantage to overcome.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/

(Yes, I know Pew Global Research exists to monitor the effectiveness of US propaganda in the rest of the world)

https://jamestown.org/program/taiwan-opinion-polling-on-unification-with-china/

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 4 2022 9:57 utc | 10

The Chinese have launched a couple of DF-17 (Hypersonic) or DF-15 Missiles across Taiwan, to keep them nervous.
Pelosi has gone to visit the demarcation zone between North and South Korea, to stir that up as well.
***

The problem is that;
Blinken has got no one who will talk to him,
Biden talks to Himself,
and Pelosi has to keep her mask on to hide that she forgot to put her teeth in this morning, so no one can understand her anyway.


Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 4 2022 10:26 utc | 11

I wonder if Pelosi wanted to scare/chase chip manufacturers out of Taiwan before China got the technology. It would be an easy way for them to get that intellectual property on US soil. Pelosi was probably lobbying them to move their production facilities to the US with billions in CHIPS bribes and warning of an insecure future with China (which she exacerbated).

Posted by: rmml | Aug 4 2022 10:34 utc | 12

I wish "western media" -- which is to say those radio, TV, electronic and print organs that are allied with the sinking Atlantis -- would stop calling what goes on between the to sides of the Táiwan straits a "conflict between Taiwan and China": This is a 100%misnomer, since it obfuscates what's going on.
The "CONFLICT" is a continuation of the Chinese Civil War of 1926-49 and has continued since the Nationalist Chinese army took Táiwan back from Japan early 1946. It is thus a conflict in the form of a stand-still standoff between the armed forces of the Republic of China and the People's Liberation Army of the CCP and The People's Republic of China.
Having since 1971 discussed these matters with sympathizers of all sides, I have found it convenient to instead talk about the "conflict/auseinandersetzung between The Mainland and the areas still held by the Nationalist Chinese Authorities now vacationing in Táipeh (Táibêi) and some other nearby islets."
Remember that the territorial claims of the Republic of China (now stationed temporarily in the South Seas and East China Sea) are far broader than those of the Peaole's Republic, as they ancompass (Tannu) Tuva, Outer Mongolia, Arunchal Pradesh and all islets in the South China Sea!

Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Aug 4 2022 10:40 utc | 13

It is a fine line to keep ASEAN and BRICS participants on board. China will need to sell their blockade as win-win. They probably can. China has a huge purse.

In other China news, China has a neat new chip than integrates GPS with SMS on the same satellite constellation. GPS targeting just got much much better.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2022-08-03/china-rolls-out-short-message-beidou-chip-for-smartphones-101921425.html

Posted by: too scents | Aug 4 2022 10:45 utc | 14

Again, I ask: b supports the independence of the Donbass; why isn't he supporting the (de facto) independence of Taiwan? Who in their right mind would want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party?? Despite the name, they're even more fascistic than Kiev.
Posted by: Observer | Aug 4 2022 9:50 utc | 8

I live in Taiwan for 45 years. Let me answer your question. Mainland China offers Taiwan 'One Country, Two Systems' for unification. Taiwanese can keep their lifestyle and political system. Taiwan doesn't have to pay any tax to Mainland China. However, Taiwan has refused to negotiate with mainland China for 30 years and worked very hard to 'internationalize' this issue.

Posted by: BaDaShi | Aug 4 2022 10:55 utc | 15

Abe | Aug 4 2022 9:30

Up to the February this year lot of people were saying "Russia is all talk no action". 5 months later, Ukraine is burning and nazis are being stacked up. In year or 5, most likely there will be no US missiles or any threats for Russia in Europe at all, as it was stated by Lavrov himself months back as a main goal.

So, China is all talk no action... Let revisit that in few years.

Russia actively supported the seperatists in Donbas with weapons etc. for the last 8 years - the idea that they were 'all talk' is not the case.

China on the other hand appear scared of taking military actions on their own territory (Taiwan)

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 4 2022 11:08 utc | 16

Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Aug 4 2022 10:40 utc | 16

An excellent comment, for which I thank you.

You would no doubt quickly go mad in my own country of Oz, where you would be continually responding to claims about plucky little Taiwan vs "Those Chinese baaaaaaaaastards! Claiming all that territory that isn't theirs!"

(And later: "Send in half a dozen SAS, cock. Best soldiers in the world!")

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Aug 4 2022 11:10 utc | 17

Observer @8, you and your kind have no knowledge of history and only spout your racist MSM views.

Do you actually know what the 1 China policy is that USA signed up to 1978? That USA breaks every law is okay with sh.ts like you, but you don't matter.

Who now matters is the non-west world and you can go to hell.
China will hit Taiwan with sanctions that will further drag USA down, for it is surely coming.

Just the sanctions on sand alone will cause Taiwan to lose 50 billion and USA short of micro chips. China will fix you and Russia will do the same.

2 more months for the real pain to set in. The USA/West is in such a mess, and fools don't even see it.

Posted by: Karl luck | Aug 4 2022 11:15 utc | 18

noticing a sudden change, the trolls so concerned about Russia's alleged failures in Ukraine have disappeared and been replaced by trolls concerned about China's alleged failure to deal with Taiwan. hmmm.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 11:17 utc | 19


That wasn't helped by Pelosi's tone deafness:

At a news conference with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, Pelosi was asked what she could offer Taiwan to offset the possible costs the island would incur — including economic retaliation from China — as a consequence of her visit.
She answered that her visit was part of a broader U.S. effort to have “better economic exchanges” with Taiwan, and she said “significant” Taiwanese businesses are already planning to invest in manufacturing in the United States.”

Surely anyone with enough brain cells to rub together can see that the US is gonna discard Taiwan like a used condom once they run out of uses for it...

@Observer:


As in most countries, the biggest threat to the ruling class of China is their own people, not external enemies like the US or Taiwan deciding they'd really rather not be ruled by the psychopaths of the CCP.

Well, I'm living in China right now and I can assure you, this generally doesn't apply to the CPC. Although it definitely will if the CPC renounces its claim on Taiwan. Chinese sentiment towards Taiwan is overwhelmingly united and strong, that it is a part of China. You're free to disagree, but I'd say its unwise to disregard it.

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 11:22 utc | 20

I don't think China is the only country Taiwan can import sand from.

Posted by: aquileia | Aug 4 2022 11:25 utc | 21

The more the white West seeks to assert white control over this world is the more isolated it will become. That is a plain fact.

Posted by: Karl luck | Aug 4 2022 11:26 utc | 22

I mean, if there is one resource that is abundant on earth, it's sand. Am I missing something?

Posted by: aquileia | Aug 4 2022 11:30 utc | 23

The more the white West seeks to assert white control over this world is the more isolated it will become. That is a plain fact.

Posted by: Karl luck | Aug 4 2022 11:26 utc | 27

Oh God, identity politruks.

Posted by: Tichy | Aug 4 2022 11:38 utc | 24

@aquileia 28:
sand is cheap and abundant, so a lot of the cost is from shipping. The next best option is going to be much further away than the mainland. But I think its more shock and awe - suddenly having to find new suppliers for 90% (as claimed by the OP) of your consumption isn't going to be easy, let alone at comparable rates.

None of the bans on their own constitute anything like an insurmountable challenge, I think. But it's a pretty long list of bans plus exercises that may effectively be blockades in disguise

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 11:40 utc | 25

Posted by: aquileia | Aug 4 2022 11:30 utc | 28

To parody a very old advertisement, "Sands ain't sands".

I grew up in a place where sand meant infinitely small white grains that sang against your feet. Now I live in a place where the "grains" of sand are so large you can practically play marbles with them.

Anyway, your comment was answered in great technical detail on the last China/Taiwan thread. In short, yeah you're missing a lot.

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Aug 4 2022 11:40 utc | 26

However, the Chinese government kept its calm.

This is not true at all. In fact it is an inversion of reality. The only one trying to create a confrontation was China itself with its bellicose rhetoric and actions.

How many people know that last year several senators from the US visited Taiwan.

China bluffed and the US called it’s bluff.

The military exercises are clearly designed to intimidate Taiwan into submission making China look like nothing more than a bully.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 11:53 utc | 27

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 11:53 utc | 33

Do Russia looks like a 'bully' to Ukraine to you too?

Posted by: Lucci | Aug 4 2022 12:00 utc | 28

I think the sand issue is mostly about construction, not chips, as to volume.

China can mess with Taiwan airspace and screw up airline flights indefinitely. I think China needs to send an ultimatum to Taiwan similar to what Putin did about security. They need to urge hard movement towards unification - and no more excuses or delays.

I'm mostly thinking of them building a tunnel or bridge to Taiwan at least and then let them drag their feet otherwise for a few years.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 4 2022 12:10 utc | 29

Pelosi is eroding the benefits that come from respecting US IP rights.

...

Statistics provided by He showed that Chinese courts concluded 541,000 IP-related disputes in 2021-more than five times the number in 2013-of which 10,167 involved foreign parties.

Chinese courts provide equal protection for litigants from home and abroad, she said, adding that China is becoming a reliable and preferred place for international IP-related litigation.

...

New courts. New rules.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202207/21/WS62d8ab2da310fd2b29e6d8a8.html

Posted by: too scents | Aug 4 2022 12:11 utc | 30

First there was Demented Joe. Now we have Demented Jane! And Fruit Salad Karma!

Seriously, during her press interview, Nancy Pelosi demonstrated the full power of her intellect and memory:

"In our earliest days at our founding of our country, Benjamin Franklin, our presidency, said, freedom and democracy. Freedom and democracy, one thing, security here. If we don't have- we can't have either, if we don't have both."

The great United States is runned by three mental cases!!!

Posted by: Sam Smith | Aug 4 2022 12:11 utc | 31

Am I the only one thinking that the Ukraine/Donbass and China/Taiwan scenarios are actually quite similar?

Russia for years promoted the Minsk agreements: Donbass has autonomy and stays in Ukraine. After a concerted NATO multi-year effort, Ukraine refused to cooperate and instead worked hard to become a NATO base which was unacceptable (and inflicted casualties on the Donbass). Russia launched the SMO in response to this unacceptable condition.

China for years has promoted the "one nation two systems" process for China and Taiwan. The US has conducted a multi-year effort to push Taiwan into an independence model so that it can become a US military base to use against China which is unacceptable. China has drawn a hard line and will take whatever actions needed to keep this from happening.

I think saying "self-determination is okay for the Donbass why not for Taiwan" misses the point of the concerted "color revolution" effort by the US in Ukraine and Taiwan while Russia and China for years have promoted peaceful integration.

Posted by: mtw | Aug 4 2022 12:14 utc | 32

The "CONFLICT" is a continuation of the Chinese Civil War of 1926-49 and has continued since the Nationalist Chinese army took Táiwan back from Japan early 1946. It is thus a conflict in the form of a stand-still standoff between the armed forces of the Republic of China and the People's Liberation Army of the CCP and The People's Republic of China.

Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Aug 4 2022 10:40 utc | 16

+1

At the end of the day it is up to the Taiwanese to decide their future. Remain de facto independent or unite with the mainland.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:16 utc | 33

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:16 utc | 39

Chiang Kai Shek didn't allow them to decide their future when he took over Taiwan. this just seems like a reprise of propaganda about Ukraine which ignores the 2014 coup.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 12:19 utc | 34

Am I the only one thinking that the Ukraine/Donbass and China/Taiwan scenarios are actually quite similar?
@mtw | Aug 4 2022 12:14 utc | 38

---

LOL, no! Taiwan is literally a province of China.

Posted by: too scents | Aug 4 2022 12:25 utc | 35

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 12:19 utc | 40

It quite simple really. Hold a referendum in Taiwan. Remain independent or unite with China?

That would be the correct way to do it. But the CCP had publically stated that should they declare de jure, not just de facto independence, they will invade.

If you have to compare the conflict in Ukraine with China - Taiwan, Taiwan is the Donbass and China is The Ukraine.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:26 utc | 36

Posted by: aquileia | Aug 4 2022 11:30 utc | 28
if there is one resource that is abundant on earth, it's sand. Am I missing something?
Yes. Missing the information that sand… is actually in very short supply globally.
Not all sand is suitable for construction.
Put “sand in short supply” into a search engine of your choice.
You’ll likely get results like this:
>>> https://www.basf.com › global › en › media › magazine › issue-8 › sand-in-short-supply.html
Sand in short supply - BASF
“……Sand in short supply After water, sand is the most important raw material in the world. But the freely available reserves of these miniscule grains are gradually becoming scarce. How are scientists planning to change that? 30 billion metric tons of sand are shoveled into cement mixers around the world every year…

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 12:30 utc | 37

LOL, no! Taiwan is literally a province of China.

Posted by: too scents | Aug 4 2022 12:25 utc | 41

But Donetsk and Lugansk were literally part of Ukraine before declaring independence after 8 years of shelling.

Had it not been for US Seventh Fleet support in 1950 the China-Taiwan story could have been much different.

Do not think that Taiwan has always been some kind of democracy. The political history is not so nice.

Posted by: mtw | Aug 4 2022 12:36 utc | 38

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:16 utc | 39

How do you get from +1 to "it's an unfinished civil war" to "let the losers keep what they have and be independent" especially since these threads have made clear that the so-called "independence" drive is fomented by a country that's been stirring shit all over the world for 200+ years?

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 12:38 utc | 39

Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 11:40 utc | 30
“…sand is cheap and abundant..”
Wrong.
And wrong.
See my @42 comment
[Although the post number might change should b chose to delete* the Saker trolls derailing this thread]
*(and hopefully ban) (oh, the priceless irony)

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 12:38 utc | 40

no Taiwan is western Ukraine, backed by the US, just as they backed Chiang Kai Shek when he took over Taiwan. the US wants to use Taiwan as a wedge against China, as it has used Ukraine against Russia. the best comparison to Donbass would be the inhabitants of Taiwan pre the takeover aby the fleeing Koumintang

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 12:40 utc | 41

To make cement, you need sand, portland cement and water.

To transport sand over great distances is very expensive. The fact that Taiwan has to import 90% of its cement from the mainland which is only 180 km away tells me that this commodity will become a strategic choke point for Taiwan. Construction costs are going up in Taiwan. The after effects of the Witch's visit means more inflation, less GDP for Taiwan. Freedom and democracy are great!

Posted by: Sam Smith | Aug 4 2022 12:44 utc | 42

How do you get from +1 to "it's an unfinished civil war" to "let the losers keep what they have and be independent" especially since these threads have made clear that the so-called "independence" drive is fomented by a country that's been stirring shit all over the world for 200+ years?

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 12:38 utc | 45

It is an unfinished civil war. But according to the UN there is only one China, regardless of the facts on the ground. Therefore, legally speaking their independence is de facto currently and not de jure. Holding a referendum on independence would make it de jure.

A referendum would clear up whether the independence drive is driven from internal or external factors. Either way it should be up to the Taiwanese to decide.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:47 utc | 43

As a Japanese, I appreciate Beijing's calmness.
We just got rid of one of the idiots. Please don't give us war.

Posted by: sam | Aug 4 2022 12:49 utc | 44

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:47 utc | 49

you only want to poll the losers in the civil war. the ones who massacred the natives when they resisted the takeover after the Kuomintang lost the civil war. poll the whole country of China, including Taiwan.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 12:50 utc | 45

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 12:40 utc | 47

Both Chiang Kai Shek and his son considered themselves Chinese and ROC as the rightful government of all China. It was only from Lee Teng Hui that the independence drive began in earnest. Lee's brother fought for the Imperial Japanese army in WW2 and died somewhere in SE Asia or the Pacific. Lee Teng Hui himself also has a Japanese name (Iwasato Masao) and in his later life he made little attempt to hide that he considered himself Japanese, not Chinese nor Taiwanese.

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 12:51 utc | 46

@Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:26 utc | 42,

The referendum that you suggested will not be a fair one. People under 35 in Taiwan are educated in the way toward the mindset that favors independence. This started in mid 1990 by Lee regime. So this will be a manufactured consent.

By the same logic, can the same apply to Okinawa, Texas, California, Quebec, Scotland, and Catalonia? The one in Catalonia actually passed but what happened to the leaders that promote independence?! One can easily see the west's, especially the amerikkkan, double standards and hypocrisy.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 4 2022 12:54 utc | 47

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:47 utc | 49

> But according to the UN there is only one China

That's one third of the full statement, which is: There is one China, Taiwan is part of China, PRC is the rightful government of China.

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 12:55 utc | 48

Posted by: sam | Aug 4 2022 12:49 utc | 50

They are not calm, they are weak.

Let's hope for your sake they stay weak, and continue to lack Russia's decisiveness.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 4 2022 12:56 utc | 49

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 12:51 utc | 52

yeah the US backed side lost the civil war, and continued to make noises about being the rightful government of china for years. I haven't heard them say that publicly lately, and of course the US was fully on board with that. the US has always used that faction to try to control China, and still is as far as I can see.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 12:59 utc | 50

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 12:50 utc | 51

A poll of the inhabitants of Taiwan on whether they want de jure independence or not would clear up a lot of the current mess.

Nothing more nothing less. Also remember that the CCP has never governed Taiwan. Ever!

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:59 utc | 51

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:59 utc | 57

again you are ignoring that the reason the PRC has never governed Taiwan is that they, unlike the Kuomintang were not motivated to invade it and slaughter the native Taiwanese, unlike the Kuomintang. I think I will listen to Another Brother Ma, maybe the factions are different now, but the pro independence faction is just as much a US puppet as the losing Kuomintang. poll the people descended from people who lived there pre 1950, see if they want to die to the last Taiwanese to be a catspaw for the failing US empire.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 13:04 utc | 52

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 12:38 utc | 46
Learn something new everyday.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:16 utc | 39


At the end of the day it is up to the Taiwanese to decide their future. Remain de facto independent or unite with the mainland.

well, de facto independence seems a good choice, but DDP seem to be going for 'nominal independence', which angers the PRC.

Indeed I think the status quo of the past number of decades was a win for Taiwan and its people: peace, trade, military protection (both from and against the PRC), and whatever other mainland problems Taiwan was spared from as a result. Clearly it should be in her interests to prolong the status quo by engaging with the PRC with talks of reunification, if only to discourage/distract the PRC from a military solution. I'm not surprised some conspiracies paint the DDP as a PRC trojan to accelerate reunification.

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 13:07 utc | 53

I want to add to my previous post that in reality, the future of Taiwan is clearly NOT fully within control of its own people. Referendums whatever the result isn't going to change that. A competent government has to acknowledge realities to plot out the best possible course of actions

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 13:10 utc | 54

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 13:04 utc | 58

Anyone who is a legal resident of Taiwan can take part in such a referendum. It’s the only way to settle the matter peacefully.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 13:10 utc | 55

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 13:04 utc | 58

Anyone who is a legal resident of Taiwan can take part in such a referendum. It’s the only way to settle the matter peacefully.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 13:10 utc | 56

From a geopolitical perspective, Taiwan independence means US bases in Taiwan with missiles pointing at China.

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 13:12 utc | 57

Iraeis, Herr Ringbone, Melaleuca: thanks for the information. I stand corrected.

Posted by: aquileia | Aug 4 2022 13:15 utc | 58

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 13:10 utc | 62

> Anyone who is a legal resident of Taiwan can take part in such a referendum

Just like with Ukraine and some other eastern European countries, there'll be an influx of people who magically get Taiwan residency rights.

You shown yourself. I'm done talking to you.

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 13:18 utc | 59

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 13:10 utc | 62

if those people derived their legal residency from the Kuomintang invasion, i don't agree.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 13:18 utc | 60

From a geopolitical perspective, Taiwan independence means US bases in Taiwan with missiles pointing at China.

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 13:12 utc | 63

exactly.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 13:19 utc | 61

Clearly it should be in her interests to prolong the status quo by engaging with the PRC with talks of reunification, if only to discourage/distract the PRC from a military solution.

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 13:07 utc | 59

I would agree with this but it seems China is ready to force the issue and is not taking no for an answer.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 13:19 utc | 62

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 4 2022 13:18 utc | 66

On these matters good to be precise. When KMT retreated to Taiwan, they weren't invading another country. They were losers in a civil war running off to an offshore, more defensible part of the country.

Posted by: Another Brother Ma | Aug 4 2022 13:20 utc | 63

I believe the Saker has the right of it in his article here when he says China held off deliberately in order to anger the Chinese people and prepare them for more aggressive and potentially deadly military confrontations in the future, just as the Russians held off in Ukraine while anger amongst the Russian people built against the west's arrogance and stupidity.
Smart vs. stupid. Who will win?

Posted by: pasha | Aug 4 2022 13:20 utc | 64

I wonder if Pelosi wanted to scare/chase chip manufacturers out of Taiwan before China got the technology. ...

Posted by: rmml | Aug 4 2022 10:34 utc | 15

That at least makes sense as a motive and a deeper reading of Pelosi’s talk of Taiwanese businesses “investing” in the US, which is probably just BS-speak for capital, property and productivity transfer from TW to US, to complement the US strategy of strip-mining the whole of Europe under cover of their long-sought Ukraine conflict.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 4 2022 13:26 utc | 65

Posted by: Observer | Aug 4 2022 9:50 utc | 8

Ah spoken like a true expert on China.
Tell us how many times you have been to China and how long you have lived on China to be such an expert on their govt.

Posted by: Surferket | Aug 4 2022 13:27 utc | 66

A bit more about sand…..

Australia can now join the silica sands race thanks to a global supply crisis - Stockhead July 12, 2022 (note, just 3 weeks ahead of Nancy’s Taiwanese Excursion)
>While silica sand is the most abundant mineral on the planet, it is still a finite resource. It’s also – apparently – the most used commodity after air and water.
Most supply is used to make concrete for construction, but it is also used to make glass for buildings, solar panels and electronics like mobile phones and TVs, as well as to make car parts.
And with the growing push for renewable technologies such as solar panels, silica sands demand is on the rise.
~Strategic mineral
The supply shortage is becoming such an issue that China has added it to its list of “strategic minerals”.

And that’s because you can’t just take good old beach sand and sell it to a glassmaker… or (semiconductor / chip maker)….
> “It is a finite resource. It’s not like you can drill deeper with gold or copper and find a bit more.
“Also, they are variable grades. Predominantly, sands have got contaminants in them like aluminium, titanium and iron, which make it unsuitable for many uses…
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/australia-can-now-join-the-silica-sands-race-thanks-to-a-global-supply-crisis/

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 13:52 utc | 67

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 13:19 utc | 68

I would agree with this but it seems China is ready to force the issue and is not taking no for an answer.

Ultimately, yes, PRC will only accept a nominally independent Taiwan over its dead body. But I don't recall this intensity when Ma Ying Jeou, Taiwan's previous, pro unification president was in power. I think the DPP's stance has definitely sped up the PRC's timetable for the reunifcation of Taiwan, at a time when the world is increasingly incapable of effective action against it.

I mean, what better option does Taiwan have, than to cooperate but drag their feet a little? To taut and reaffirm its Chinese heritage and use the goodwill this generates in PRC to discourage military action if only via its own population? Realistically, this is by far the best option. If you think big bad evil CCP never keep their word - what better option do you have? Instead the DPP seemingly want to make itself immune from PRC pity, by lowering the flag for a foreign leader's death, whose state Taiwan has territorial disputes with. By exporting your most coveted industry thousands of KMs away with too little pushback. These action paint a picture that they are not only secessionist, but a WILLING COLONY of foreign powers. The GLARING way in which this invokes the century of humiliation! I cant even THINK of anything that would galvanize PRC will to reunify Taiwan more, let alone try to carry out.

Taiwan should've accepted the one China two systems proposal and enjoyed another century of the mainland trying to woo her willing integration with favorable trade agreements, open borders for ROC civilians, de facto military protection... the whole suit. Instead we get this shitshow of a geopolitical grandstand.

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 14:00 utc | 68

Taipei sees itself as Chinese, and always has. Even the current administration directly responded in the negative when asked if it had or intended to declare independence, on the open channel.
'Pelosi' is a known idiot and an obvious criminal.
Resuming armed hostilities between the political forces in question will pose a dire and grave threat to the existence of not only the 1.4 billion people that Beijing is so fond of bragging about, but to all of the neighboring states in the region (many of whom are not necessarily friendly), and to the rest of the nations on the surface of the Earth (many of whom are also not necessarily friendly).
Whoever put dumbass up to this is most likely very well aware of that fact.
It is our continued hope that the situation surrounding the Chinese mainland and Taiwan will be stabilized peacefully, and without the threat of force or the use of force by any party.

Posted by: Joshua | Aug 4 2022 14:12 utc | 69

Down South | 4 августа 2022 12:26 utc | 36
Если сравнивать конфликт в Украине с китайско-тайваньским, то Тайвань - это Донбасс, а Китай - это Украина.

За Донбассом стоит Россия.
Кто стоит за Тайванем?

Posted by: Nebo Sinee | Aug 4 2022 14:25 utc | 70

Interesting account of the Tiananmen Square incident.
I’d only ever seen the stills images. Here’s the vid.
Once again…. Western msm have told a different story than what happened.

https://worldaffairs.blog/2019/06/02/tiananmen-square-massacre-facts-fiction-and-propaganda/

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 14:29 utc | 71

It would have been far closer an analogy to compare Taiwan to Crimea, since each is a functioning power base for the respective larger countries, though in China's case that power is economic. I know very little of the populations involved, but if two thirds of Taiwanese people were unhappy with Pelosi's visit, there will certainly be a reflection of this in the country's next political elections. And certainly since the US has derived economic benefit from the status quo, we'll again see a ricochet effect in our own fragile real economy status.

Well played, Nancy! Well played, dem "leadership"! I'd suggest to Republican candidates that the time is ripe to break free of oligarchical sponsors --- you don't need them; the next two elections could be won easily without them. As Molly Ivins famously said, you dance with those that brung you. Time to change partners!

We will be watching.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 4 2022 14:40 utc | 72

It was funny to see the House Speaker CryptKeeper (ref:Tales from the Crypt) citing our First Presidency – Benjamin Franklin!

Freedom, Democracy, or a REPUBLIC.

One or the Other…

Kakistocracy in Practice, Ladies and Gentlemen – we’ve Senility-Mush and/or Sh!+ for Brains Seated atop the Whitehouse and House for the POTUS and 2 “Runner-Up Replacements”.

*****

People are reminded that:
1) The US Navy ENABLED CKS+KMT to flee to Formosa and conquer it by a Fleet Blockade along the Strait - Full Disclosure: My Late Father was in the US FleetEx.
2) KMT/Taipei and Beijing both claimed to be the Official Govt of the Chinese People for Decades - doesn't matter if s few offspring decide to claim to be "NED/CIA democratic"(CKS/KMT ran a DICTATORSHIP over themselves and the conquered Formosans to BEGIN WITH) or "Independent" or "Self-Governing"... Beijing will rein TWN in.

*****
The Upcoming De-Militarization, De-Oligarchization(sp?), and De-Secessionization(sp? just roll with it for now - I'm using a phone) of Taiwan

Easy Solution. Sanctions "ARE" going to get worse. The EU/NATO/H8_Hegemony ScrewJob against RUS+BLR serve as "First Round" Sanctions against BRICS/SCO. Decoupling from the U$D/SWIFT/PetroU$D Systems, Continuing the SCO/BRICS_Banks, SilkRoad, PetroCN¥-Gold_Exchanges, End U$D Payments to OPEC+ and replace with payments only in CN¥:

A) Decouple from U$D/U$T/USA-Focused/Corporate+Educational+Investment+USA-Based_StockShareOfferings As Soon As Possible;

B) Keep Holding Major Exercises surrounding TWM every 2~3 Months... While having PLAN Ships and Aircraft PERMANENTLY OPERATING on All Sides of TWN 24/7 without recognizing Secessionist Halfway Marks and "ADIZs" - Asserting CHN Territorial Sovereignty. If TWN tries to Intercept - designate assets as Foreign-Sourced Secessionists and Engage.

Shouldn't take but a few Weeks of added SAM Site Suppression and Military Facility Targeting to convince TWN that their Forces will be Destroyed as they Engage.

The Reunification Process can involve No Fly Zones or Mandating Ships+Airliners To/From TWN to Land First on the Mainland. Air Coverage by Fighters+Drones "De-Militarizing" Secessionist Entities while providing for Air/Sea Humanitarian Corridors to the Mainland should be slightly disruptive but better than starting with a Full Scale Occupation - gives Secessionists Time to Surrender Peacefully-the-eventually-allowed-to-Move-to-America/Canada as PLAN Troops Airlift In by Helicopter/Parachute/ Airfields to coordinate the Administrative Turnover of TWN.

Will AUKUS try to Intervene? Maybe. Freedom of Navigation Ops during a Foreign Military Operations seems a stretch - a Sacrificial FalseFlagOps; but AUKUS Ships can be countered by "Sacrificial/Throwaway" Civilian Vessels Blocking/Bumping to hinder progress. Attack the Civilian "Demonstrators? PLA Retaliate.

AUKUS can't win this Scenario.

PRK remain WildCards to this Theater. PRK may remain steadfast if the KMT capitulate while AUKUS don't Engage. "May remain steadfast"- PRK still have unfinished business with KOR. If KMT Engage Militarily and/or AUKUS Intervene, All Bets are Off, since this would be an Opportunity of Generations to Finish the Peninsular StandOff by Kicking Out the Murican and Conquer the Peninsula to End the War with a Big Win.

Posted by: IronForge | Aug 4 2022 14:48 utc | 73

isn't this just Pelosi's revenge for not getting Russia declared a terrorist state? It makes zero sense logically but would make a whole lot of sense in terms of drama, now that she will probably not continue as Speaker of the House?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Aug 4 2022 15:04 utc | 74

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 14:29 utc | 71

Very nice, concise collection of sources and resources. Chai Ling is the ultimate psychotic bitch, and could've also mentioned the fact that the students did receive an audience with CPC top brass, which they effectively proceeded to waste. To tie this back to the OP, I think this is representative of wider misperceptions about the mainland, much of which I believe is designed. Living in the mainland, I understand that there are many real and legitimate reasons why people of Taiwan would seek to avoid reunification. Yet, I suspect that the reasons people of Taiwan have at heart are none of these, but imaginary ones promoted by the west.

Posted by: IronForge | Aug 4 2022 14:48 utc | 73
Well, let's be realistic about this. The only advantage PRK has over ROC are nukes, which they are obviously not going to use in an offensive capacity.

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 15:15 utc | 75

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning

Posted by: giuseppe | Aug 4 2022 15:19 utc | 76

"You will get sanctioned while we will steal your prime advantage in chip manufacturing"

Better than the fate of many US allies these days

Posted by: ptb | Aug 4 2022 15:20 utc | 77

Barflies wanting vids and updates on the Chinese military drills around Taiwan…this twitter is providing coverage.
https://twitter.com/yin_sura

Netizens report that the PLA also fired DF-17s over the island ! Huge !
DF-17 is a MRBM that mounts a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV)! There's no missile system capable of intercepting them as of today.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 15:22 utc | 78

For those that missed their Adam Smith lession in seventh grade, let me repeat my history teacher.

Sand in the Sahara is priced very differently than sand in Alaska.

What he didn't know, sand in the form of a silicon wafer processed with EUV light down to 4/5 nm: USD 30'000 a slice.

Or as Mastercard put it.. consciousness running through the sand: priceless.

Posted by: C | Aug 4 2022 15:27 utc | 79

I live in Taiwan for 45 years. Let me answer your question. Mainland China offers Taiwan 'One Country, Two Systems' for unification. Taiwanese can keep their lifestyle and political system. Taiwan doesn't have to pay any tax to Mainland China. However, Taiwan has refused to negotiate with mainland China for 30 years and worked very hard to 'internationalize' this issue.

Posted by: BaDaShi | Aug 4 2022 10:55 utc | 15

Thank you very much. Could you please go further and explain why you think Taiwan is holding out? Is it mainly the super rich there who fear losing their edge or the people not trusting CCP or what?

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 4 2022 15:31 utc | 80

If you have to compare the conflict in Ukraine with China - Taiwan, Taiwan is the Donbass and China is The Ukraine.
Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 12:26 utc | 36

----

So, who's the USA to Ukraine in your analogy? And who's supposed to play the role of Russia - the USA since Taiwan represents the Donbass?

Re: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 14:29 utc | 71 - Thank you very much for the link, this is great.

Posted by: htyul | Aug 4 2022 15:34 utc | 81

The military exercises are clearly designed to intimidate Taiwan into submission making China look like nothing more than a bully.

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2022 11:53 utc | 27

I suspect they are also part of COC's propagandizing of their own population keeping them in quasi-war state. This approach perhaps foreshadows sterner confrontations to come. The unipolar PTB are not just going to fade away and since they have no reverse gear.....

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 4 2022 15:38 utc | 82

COC = CPC.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 4 2022 15:38 utc | 83

ROC: World "Fucking Around" Champion, 1949-2022

Posted by: Phelps | Aug 4 2022 15:44 utc | 84

FWIW, I disagree with the many commentators who are dissatisfied with the lack of a mid-air showdown vs Pelosi's plane.

The ideal template here, for China, is how it handled the situation in Hong Kong. Of course it won't be so easy, but events are now set in motion. Closing the Taiwan strait will lead, sooner or later, to a face-off over the US doing its next so-called FONOP. How China reacts depends on what China believes about the naval balance. Whatever that balance may be today, it will be changing at maximum speed going forward. Shipbuilders, rejoice!

Likewise, the economic warfare is already escalating, with US in the process of banning some software tools used in sub-14nm chip fabs.

https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/chip-design-software-export-restrictions

While many industry experts insist that an alternative to existing soft toolsets would take the as long to develop as the original, it never does. This move may work to block China from interfacing with the big-two leading foundries, TSMC and Samsung. Besides the fact that the output of these businesses generally passes through Chinese manufacturing to get to the rest of the world, direct retaliation is also to be expected. In this department, China holds a lot of cards, Most of the deck, I think. But not only are US diplomats stuck in their own version of a Karl-Rove / Scooter-Libby manufactured reality, so is the US Congress. When Republicans take over in the fall, it won't even matter what the executive branch wants. A serious cycle of escalation in economic warfare is coming. Supply chain, look out.

Posted by: ptb | Aug 4 2022 15:46 utc | 85

Posted by: Iraeis | Aug 4 2022 15:15 utc

ClusterFail of yet another Ignorant Amateur Troll...

Do your Homework.

Look at the charts people are Posting comparing the Conventional Military Comparisons.

Gross Conceptual Error (GCE). You may have Failed in Maff as well; but that's your Personal Problem.

Add in Hypersonics. TWN are only a Helicopter Ride away.

Posted by: IronForge | Aug 4 2022 15:49 utc | 86

here is how ukraine and taiwan connect...

the usa is constantly meddling in both! as a declining power, it watches as russia and china get stronger... the usa does everything it can to fuck up the countries it gets involved in... it is not going to change the outcome here in the next 20- 50 years... usa is on its way out.. no manner of destroying or interfering in other countries is going to work for it long term.... it needs to learn how to stay out of others affairs... it seems incapable of this, because it relies on this for supporting its main industries - military and banking... sad, but true...

Posted by: james | Aug 4 2022 15:56 utc | 87

"Pound sand" takes on a whole 'nother connotation when directed at Pelosi's hubby's semi-conductor chip investments!

Posted by: JC | Aug 4 2022 16:05 utc | 88

The Russian army is advancing in Ukraine, and the Chinese army moves closer to Taiwan.
It is as if, after a pause of 75 years, the wheels of history are in motion again, mopping up the tail end of World War 2.

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 4 2022 16:09 utc | 89

now that she will probably not continue as Speaker of the House?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Aug 4 2022 15:04 utc | 74

Don't you think she wants to become President of The United States of America? I mean, in case of War and Biden somehow shown to have lost his mind instead of getting Covid, would Harris not defer to her until P dies and elections over there end?

Just humor me on the breath of this crazy conjecture, ok? It's ... that I'm just *** not seeing her immense vanity considered *** - yet; to think that she would relinquish power - because she said so? no.

Posted by: Michael | Aug 4 2022 16:09 utc | 90

@Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 4 2022 15:31 utc | 81

Could you please go further and explain why you think Taiwan is holding out? Is it mainly the super rich there who fear losing their edge or the people not trusting CCP or what?

My understanding is that it's pure political. The younger Chiang chose Lee Tenghui as his successor. Not sure about the reasons from the hindsight. Lee is very pro-Japan. Lee studied for his PhD at Cornell when he was at a government agriculture agency. So there is a possible amerikkkan connection. At the early time of DPP, Lee helped them a lot behind the scene even though he's the chairman of KMT. After Lee, it's Chen regime that also supports independence. After Chen, it is Ma regime. Although Ma is from KMT, he didn't make any change that Lee started and Chen enhanced about the curriculum in K-12 that Chinese-related material is gradually taken out or minimized. That's why people under 35 in Taiwan don't feel much connection or association with China today. Then it is Tsai regime.

In the early years of Lee's regime in late 1980 and early 1990, the KMT technocrats did propose better integration with China along with Deng's open-and-reform policy. However, Lee blocked it because he wanted to purse independence. If Taiwan would negotiate with China, 1990s was the best time that Taiwan had. Of course, the reunification negotiation would never take place because of external factors (amerikkkans and Japan). Now, peaceful reunification is unfortunately no longer possible.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 4 2022 16:12 utc | 91

Posted by: aquileia | Aug 4 2022 11:25 utc | 21
I don't think China is the only country Taiwan can import sand from.

The sand being imported from other places may experience a mite of bother as it dodges the barrage of impotently fired rockets into the sea.

See Wokechoke | Aug 4 2022 9:21 utc | 1 for further insight.

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 4 2022 16:13 utc | 92

From the dim recesses of memory, I recalled something about the CIA involvement in drugs linking both Taiwan with Burma/Myanmar.
The US/ CIA was much more deeply involved in the Chinese civil war than is now widely acknowledged.
The CIA sponsored KMT forces in the then Burma to harass China from that border.
Here are two articles that cover some of those intrigues.
Neither are the item I remember reading, but, they add a bit more perspective to the current Taiwan China relations.

The US Opium Wars: China, Burma and the CIA

……[the]job was to fly weapons and supplies from the CIA’s base in Bangkok, Thailand, to the mountain camps of General Li Mi in the Shan States of Burma.
Li Mi, Chinese in origin, was the leader of 10,000 Chinese troops still loyal to Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, who had been driven off the Chinese mainland by Mao’s forces and was now ensconced on Taiwan.
Under the direction of the CIA, Li Mi’s army was plotting a strike across Burma’s northern border into China’s Yunnan province.
But Li Mi’s troops were not just warriors in Chiang’s cause: they had also taken control of the largest opium poppy fields in Asia.…
>…The exiled Kuomintang (KMT) army of Li Mi was as much a proprietary of the Central Intelligence Agency as Civil Air Transport.
Installed in Burma, this army was armed by the CIA, fed by the CIA, and paid by the CIA. In later operations in Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam the CIA used it as a labor pool. Under this patronage and protection the KMT was able to build up its opium operations in the area of Southeast Asia known as the Golden Triangle.………

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/12/01/the-us-opium-wars-china-burma-and-the-cia/

This article a bit lightweight:
https://historyofyesterday.com/the-forgotten-army-taiwans-attempt-to-retake-china-through-burma-560e0897b73c

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 4 2022 16:15 utc | 93

So far the diversion, whatever it is, has been working - everyone is "looking over THERE," including everyone here. Posted by: HOGGY | Aug 4 2022 16:03 utc | 89

Think of the domestic political angle. There are the Biden Family scandals, with allegations that Hunter and the "Big Guy" have been getting kickbacks in both Ukraine and China. Then there are the Pelosi Family scandals, their known insider trading activities and her husband's recent DUI charge.

All of that could cost the D's big time in November. So let's show support for Freedumb and Dumbocracy in the rest of the world. Sadly it might just might work to salvage a majority in one of the branches of Congress.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Aug 4 2022 16:17 utc | 94

Any thoughts? ... So far the diversion, whatever it is, has been working - everyone is "looking over THERE," including everyone here.

Posted by: HOGGY | Aug 4 2022 16:03 utc | 89

I think this is tempest in a teapot deliberately hyped up by both sides (China and US) to give both populations dawning awareness that they are about to be adversaries. Sanctions and further supply chain blockages will result along with escalating rhetoric on both sides.

This in turn will precipitate the upcoming collapse of Western polities in preparation for a global Reset which the dominant movers and shakers in the US-Western axis are working towards as much as the Eurasians.

For this to work, things are going to have to get very bad, probably with famine, economic crashes, disease, riots, civil wars and all the rest of it. Wars usually take 5-10 years to play out. This one started in 2020 with the softening-up barrage instigating emergency status government occasioned by the US-China joint biolab project later called Covid19, so we are only halfway through the third year. Chances are that after another year of steadily deteriorating conditions that late 2023 to early 2024 is when things will really hit hard, i.e. the second winter in a row in which northern economies and governments will face severe dysfunction along with widespread human hardship. Poorer areas in Latin America and Africa might get extremely unstable if there are critical food supply shortages or any sort of pandemic which, unlike covid19, effects them greatly.

The Eurasian challenge is to maintain stability and growth whilst preventing the collapsing West from exercising the Samson option. However, since Western elites are clearly in on this Reset-after-Collapse exercise, chances are that all will be well on that front.

Of course this could all be totally wrong. The fact is that there are no real problems in the world today. We have everything we need to have a very good time. Progress has been made in natural farming techniques the past few decades meaning we can restore the soil, eliminate pollution and feed billions easily. Hydrocarbons can be harvested and used cleanly for the most part with many new and better nuclear options and perhaps also hydrogen from water and so on. Plenty of energy available. We can create good housing, good towns, good cities, good government, good countryside, good lives.

We can. But we don't. Ukraine has been a basket case for years for absolutely no good reason and now hundreds of men are being butchered every day because people cannot talk to each other properly and do the right thing. And there are hundreds of other examples of course.

In any case, I think this Taiwan two-step is about bringing China and the US-West into more overt confrontation to hasten pre-Reset decline in which the lives of hundreds of millions are imminently at risk.

My 2 cents!

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 4 2022 16:21 utc | 95

Posted by: Sam Smith | Aug 4 2022 12:11 utc | 31
The great United States is ruined by three mental cases!!!

Your post had a spelling error. It has been corrected for you.

Your count is also off by several orders of magnitude.

Posted by: Sushi | Aug 4 2022 16:22 utc | 96

ptb @86--

Yes, very much agree. For some reason, b omitted the important context of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Cambodia that's now ongoing as it was China's primary audience for its reaction to Pelosi. Instead of acting like the Outlaw US Empire and murdering again with impunity someone--most likely many innocents again--in Afghanistan and shooting down Pelosi's plane, delivering Neocons their wished for new Pearl Harbor, China issued coordinated diplomatic protests globally and followed through with its announced military component that was to demonstrate China's ability to completely control its island province if it so desires. Furthermore, the issue at hand is greater than reunification; it's rejuvenation of China's Being, an existential goal first announced by Sun Yat-sen during the 1911 Revolution and the foundation for both Communist and Nationalist Chinese.

Bigtime fallout generated by Pelosi has caused a crisis in China-Japan relations. Too many barflies are ignoring Chinese media reports like this crucial one featuring Wang Yi's comments:

"Wang said that the US side tramples on international law, violates bilateral commitments, undermines peace across the Taiwan Straits, and supports secessionists and advocates confrontation, which is a flagrant provocation to the Chinese people and the people of peace-loving countries in the region and a political gamble that is bound to bring negative effects.

"Pelosi's performance is another bankruptcy of US politics, US diplomacy and US credibility, and a proof that the US is the biggest destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Straits and the biggest troublemaker of regional stability, Wang said on Thursday. 'If China does not firmly resist such reckless, irresponsible and irrational actions of the US, the principle of respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity in international relations will become a dead letter, and the hard-won peace and stability of the region will be seriously undermined.'" [My Emphasis]

It was already known that Wang wouldn't meet with Blinken; he also won't meet with Japan's delegation either. South Korea chose a different course showing its independence from the Outlaw US Empire on this issue. Japan's WW2 history and its behavior since then continues to take a toll on its post-war regional relations.

Too many people are refusing to see the main criminal here--the Outlaw US Empire--as it continues its quest to steal as much as it can from as many as possible--including their very lives, as with Ukraine. Thinking China lost face isn't dealing with the situation's overall contextual reality. The Outlaw US Empire with its latest murder in Afghanistan combined with Pelosi's provocation showed yet again that it's humanity's number one enemy, particularly to that select audience assembled in Cambodia.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 4 2022 16:30 utc | 97

The Countercurrents Collective sees things this way:
https://countercurrents.org/2022/08/plas-complete-blockade-around-taiwan-and-the-blockading-exercise-will-be-routine/

In any referendum the largest number of voters are those looking for continuity-a quiet life-. In Taiwan in the past that meant going with the US and Japan as the military and economic champions in the region. Those who were ready to vote against them would do so in the knowledge that a vote would settle little: the imperialists would be back, in the form of NGOs, perhaps, colour revolutions, sanctions, coups, guerrilla or open warfare. The Empire never backed down. It was intent on hegemony and would not rest until it had it.

Those days are gone. Taiwan now realises that, if it wants peaceful development and 'a life' it is going to have to unite with China again, put an end to dreams of comprador strength and prosperity under US protection and accept the extremely generous offer from Beijing.
And that will be one less US stronghold in the region. The next to go will be Korea, followed, shortly afterwards, by Japan.

That leads to Australia, of course, which will have to decide whether to sacrifice its economic prospects for the dubious privilege of being the White Man's last redoubt in the Pacific. And, to help it make up its mind, there is likely to be a massive revulsion against imperialism in the US itself where the ancient dream of building a City on the Hill, rather than Bases Overseas (because you can't afford both) is already returning to popularity.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 4 2022 16:33 utc | 98

Taiwan wil be useless in a few years:
Link to southfront

"TSMC is currently building a $12 billion semiconductor facility in Arizona, which is expected to be operational by 2024."

And the Pelosi are making money:
"Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, has been under scrutiny for his trading of semiconductor stocks amid allegations of insider trading. In June, he purchased stocks in Nvidia, an American chip company. He then sold 25,000 shares of Nvidia stock at a loss the day before the House passed the CHIPS and Science Act. Overall, global semiconductor stocks took a hit due to Pelosi’s trip and the uncertainty it caused."

Taiwan wil be useful as a rock to throw rockets from and make it a nuclear wasteland.

Posted by: gary | Aug 4 2022 16:34 utc | 99

Jackson Hinkle is reporting that a number of US Senators (including Bob Menendez) will be trying to get a bill passed that would allow 'lend lease' of arms to Taiwan and make any Chinese interference in the island a 'sanctionable' offence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHu7tQH81PE This would effectively end the 'one China' policy. If this is true, it looks as if some Senators are desperate for a war with China.

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Aug 4 2022 16:38 utc | 100

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