Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 01, 2022

Ukraine - The Bear Caught The Kraken By Using This Trick

This is the map that shows the historic development of Ukraine.


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Russia is, in my opinion, aiming at taking the pink and yellow parts which have predominantly Russian speaking populations. The most north- western pink oblast is Kharkov which is also the name of the oblast's main city. 

On March 1 the city was already under attack.


Source: LiveUAmap - bigger

There were a number of artillery impacts (red dots) on military targets in and around the city.

But the situation soon stagnated. The current mayor or Kharkov Igor Terekhov was on the side of the Zelenski regime. The rowdy soccer fans of the city's main club had formed the original Azov regiment. A militia group that split from them at the start of the war were the Kraken:

The Kraken unit was formed by Azov Battalion veterans on the day Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, a military spokesman said. That makes the Krakens something like a kid brother to the older Azov unit, whose fighters achieved world renown status last month for their epic last stand inside Azovstal, a sprawling steel complex in the port city of Mariupol.

Like the Azov fighters, whose name comes from the Sea of Azov, the regiment's name and insignia evoke a different maritime theme: the kraken, a mythical sea monster resembling a giant squid.

Their commander is Konstantin V. Nemichev, a political and military figure in Kharkiv. The son of a schoolteacher and an electrician, Nemichev, 26, launched a political career in the right-wing National Corps party before he graduated from college, including an unsuccessful bid last year to become Kharkiv's mayor. He drew heavily on the support of rowdy young soccer fans, many of whom now serve in his unit.
...
The Kraken unit operates somewhat in a gray zone — a force that answers to the Defense Ministry but is not part of Ukraine's armed forces. Soldiers in Ruska Lozova say the unit has about 1,800 soldiers. The military spokesman declined to say how many serve in the unit.

The Kraken follow, like Azov, a fascist ideology. The mayor and the Kraken units had prepared for fighting within and around the city. They had fortified areas and took positions in houses that faced the Russian lines.

The Russian attackers did not want to destroy the city and its Russian inhabitants. They never were ordered to launch an all out attack. Over several months the positions on either side hardly changed. This is the map of the situation on May 1.


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The western side of the map the Russian held territory had been given up after the move on Kiev had been reversed. On the eastern side they had gained the area around Iizum. But the fighting around Kharkov had continued for more than two months with nearly unchanged lines.

Then something curious happened. In an orderly move the Russian forces around Kharkov began to pull back. Here are the positions on May 15.


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The Ukrainian military and the Kraken felt victorious. They had 'defeated' the enemy. They left their prepared positions in and around the city to pursued the Russian forces which continued to move back. They did not smell the trap.

Here is the situation on May 31.


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The defenders of Kharkov were now in small towns or the open country side. Since the end of May the map showed few changes but daily heavy bombardment of Ukrainian units.

On June 5 Stars & Stripes reported:

The Kraken unit — which in recent weeks has helped take back villages north of Kharkiv — filled its ranks with "gym rats," bouncers and "ultras," the professional soccer fans who sometimes showed their love for Kharkiv's Metalist team with riotous behavior.
...
But their unit also draws veterans from the regular army, battle-tested paramilitary fighters from Donbas and other volunteers who range in age from 25 to 60.
...
By the time the Kraken unit liberated this suburban village of about 5,000 people at the end of April, many had fled. Maleev estimated Tuesday that only 200 or so remained in what amounted to a newly liberated ghost town. Few here even stepped outside as Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to trade mortar fire.

Much of the village has also been damaged or destroyed, including the Church of St. Nicholas, the village council building and a small hospital. Elsewhere, a tidy row of beehives stood in a field near houses whose heavy wooden roof beams had been snapped and charred.

The report mentioned that there were several Russian drones in the air above the unit. The soldiers hide from them. It is not the only one that has been drawn out of Kharkov city and received such treatment.

Since the end of May Russian artillery as well as aerial bombing has been raining down on them day by day. It achieved the desired results. The Ukrainian militia had significant losses.

On June 26 the Russian Defense Ministry mentioned the Kraken in its daily report:

Attack launched by Russian artillery near Pitomnik (Kharkov region) has resulted in the elimination of up to 100 militants from Kraken Nazi group and about 10 units of combat equipment. Commanders of the militants have decided to abandon the positions and to withdraw the rest of this unit to Kharkov.
...
High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the elimination of 4 command posts, including those of Kharkov-1 and Kharkov-2 Territorial Defence battalions near Kharkov, as well as a training base of mercenaries deployed near Nikolayev.

Some 100 dead and four command post on one day is quite a bit. But those were not the only attacks that day and the campaign ran for over 30 days. President Putin's order to 'demilitarize' and 'denazify' the Ukraine gets executed well.

Here is the situation on June 30.


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After a full month of such artillery preparations, which heavily diminished the units that originally had been protecting Kharkov, the Russians are again on the move.

The person who runs the excellent Military Summary And Analysis channel reported today (vid) that today several towns on the Kharkov frontline had been retaken by the Russians. (That is not yet reflected in the pro-Ukrainian LiveUAmap we both are using here.) He painted arrows on the map that show the future Russian movements he anticipates to happen.


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It is another pincer move on Kharkov. A third arrow could probably be pointed from the Izium area southeast of Kharkov which the Russians have under their control.

The Russian trick to catch the kraken has worked. For more than two month they had been trying to take Kharkov without destroying it. The fortified positions in and around the city had made that impossible.

The controlled move back to the border area drew the defenders of Kharkov out into open fields where the Russian artillery then had a full month time to hunt them down. Now, as the enemy has been decimated, the Russian move towards Kharkov can be renewed.

Posted by b on July 1, 2022 at 17:04 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 1 2022 20:42 utc | 43

I'm not convinced Russia will start anything over Lithuania and Kaliningrad unless Russia is prevented from supporting the enclave by sea. I think Ritter is over-emphasizing Russian desire for war. Not saying it can't happen, but I don't think the situation has reached that point at all yet.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 2:04 utc | 101

Eighthman #73
"There is a very strange narrative over at The Saker - to the effect that Ukies on the battlefield are selling upscale Western weapons to Russia. Like French howitzers. Is this true?"

Wouldn't surprise me. Ukrainians are professionally corrupt. Hell, US soldiers in Vietnam had a huge thriving black market selling US supplies to whoever. The only thing they didn't want to sell were weapons, and some even did that.

Ever see the movie "Kelly's Heroes" (or any number of similar movies)? Soldiers sick and tired of being at war turn criminal. Happens in every war. IIRC a considerable number of US troops remained in Europe after WWII and forged criminal empires in smuggling, drugs and other criminal endeavors. Ukraine is made for this stuff.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 2:15 utc | 102

Dan Farrand | Jul 1 2022 19:09 utc | 24
Asks: on ground status in Donbas/ Ukraine.
Dan. Make Military Summary channel your daily go to.
Everyone else does.
Ie. MoA
Duran
New Atlas….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 2 2022 2:23 utc | 103

Petri Krohn | Jul 1 2022 23:21 utc | 81
Kharkiv fire fight.
>Finnish volunteer fighters interview
>Foreigners ordered to take territory vacated by Russians.
>Americans went in first,
the Finns followed. … were spotted and subjected to 15 minutes of artillery fire.
So. “Friendly” fire???

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 2 2022 2:35 utc | 104

For all the soldiers that are in the strugle for their life: respect.

Do not be a fool: leave your arms & complain with RF. You are not a minor person in Russia. You have individual rights in Russia all:

I'm with you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkuRIZ7QyDM

Posted by: Nara | Jul 2 2022 2:37 utc | 105

uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 23:31 utc | 85
“…… Kharkiv to be precise. Looks good, no dog droppings on the pavement, no Gonzalo Lira sipping coffee at the cafe,…
Thanks for that. 10/10

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 2 2022 2:38 utc | 106

Here is how Russia wins.

It is in the music. Gradualism leading to climax. Take your time and listen to 15 magnificent minutes. Yes its a toothpick!

Irony alert the Director of London Symphony Orchestra banned Valery Gergiev after the SMO commenced because he is Russian. Petty englanders.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 2:41 utc | 107

uncle tungsten @85

kharkOv to be correct. stop using ukro place names

Posted by: kharkov | Jul 2 2022 2:47 utc | 108

Mi goss... The music is nothing?

Alfred Deller:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5HcakhyPB4

Posted by: Nara | Jul 2 2022 3:16 utc | 109

El Bolero de Ravel is unique: take it in or out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy5Ve3338-E

Posted by: Nara | Jul 2 2022 3:35 utc | 110

oh oh... the spelling police are here!

Originally composed as a ballet commissioned by Russian ballerina Ida Rubinstein, the piece, which premiered in 1928, is Ravel's most famous musical composition.

such a sublime composition! how that is uplifting.. thanks for the reminder...

Posted by: james | Jul 2 2022 3:47 utc | 111

Reuters
EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia over Kaliningrad
VILNIUS/BRUSSELS, June 29 (Reuters) - Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jul 2 2022 3:49 utc | 112

for boris and the queen...

"Scotland and Wales do not want to pay for the armament of Ukraine on a permanent basis and offer to bear the costs to London. 95 million pounds of them were allocated under pressure, writes The Telegraph. The funds were intended for health and social development programs."

Posted by: james | Jul 2 2022 3:51 utc | 113

I am sorry for the last example because is a bad example. This is a good example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JJIeo5iPwQ

Posted by: Nara | Jul 2 2022 3:51 utc | 114

kharkov #107

kharkOv to be correct. stop using ukro place names

Apologies. It was my typical obscure sarcasm.

Kharkov will be correct in week or two ;))

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 3:54 utc | 115

https://smallerbytheday.substack.com/p/may-1st-newsletter-establishment

I posted this on my terrible substack post back on May 1st. Thanks for stealing. The more people know the better.

Posted by: Peter Kurten | Jul 2 2022 3:57 utc | 116

@93 bevin | Jul 2 2022 0:55 utc

That's an excellent analysis, with an unshakable prognosis - also a great read. Many thanks.

~~

And Argentina has applied to join BRICS, along with Iran.

And Russia has already stated quite clearly that nations wishing to join the rising multi-polar organizations would not be held to any standards or requirements to settle their existing western obligations: this seems to be full encouragement to repudiate the same.

What a shock wave it would send through the Americas, if Argentina were to repudiate its onerous debt burden - not just default or reschedule, but repudiate the whole thing. What an iconic piece of symbolism. And what a challenge it would then pose for that country to withstand the inevitable attack from the US.

But what would happen if a Russian military contingent were invited into Argentina and came to be stationed there, as a tripwire against gunboat diplomacy, and perhaps with special services to train and help counter the inevitable surge of western black ops?

The world's nations already see this force as the deciding factor in protection from the terrorism of the west. And what if all the by-then falling and sanctioned supply lines to Argentina were to be supported by China and the various organizations?

~~

And then take that scenario and expand its timeline so it's not the dramatic overnight event as I wrote it but instead a barely perceptible shift over years, made up of thin slices practically the whole way: slowly at first, then all at once for the end.

Such a scenario would involve a million details, but it would be hugely instructive to see how they would all be satisfied. And surely there are numerous nations at this very moment rehearsing such scenarios in their secret counsels?

Russian military, Chinese money. And the world turns.

Just a thought (apologies if already discussed here).

Posted by: Grieved | Jul 2 2022 4:16 utc | 117

Grieved #116

and Bevin many thanks for this discussion on the cancellation of odious debt.

But what would happen if a Russian military contingent were invited into Argentina and came to be stationed there, as a tripwire against gunboat diplomacy, and perhaps with special services to train and help counter the inevitable surge of western black ops?

Prior to that perhaps China and Russia might publish an encyclopedia of NGO precursors that are in place to instigate a color revolution in your country.

Does such a user guide exist anywhere?

I suspect one would be handy in Australia right now just to keep ahead of the curve as they say.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 4:50 utc | 118

Argentina has applied to join BRICS, along with Iran.
So=
BRIIICAS?
BRICIIAS
BRICSIIA
BARICIIS?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 2 2022 4:52 utc | 119

Regis Tremblay again: Ukraine: Today & Tomorrow - Decision Centers Targeted - The Big Picture. utoob one hour.

"Ray McGovern and Scott Ritter in an in-depth, detailed, and passionate discussion about Ukraine. Why Russia cannot stop, and US reckless threats to China.

This was an amazing and insightful discussion that must be absorbed and shared."

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 5:00 utc | 120

NATO cannot collect its debts any more. And that the victims of NATO's financiers can, with impunity, repudiate such debts.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 2 2022 0:55 utc | 93

---

In sha'Allah

Posted by: too scents | Jul 2 2022 5:07 utc | 121

The likely final map is one that I speculated on as well.

A Skeptic’s Best Guess On Final Map

https://askeptic.substack.com/p/a-skeptics-best-guess-on-final-map

Posted by: Will | Jul 2 2022 5:09 utc | 122

@ bevin | Jul 2 2022 0:55 utc | 93

Brilliant comment, one of your very best.

Posted by: MarkU | Jul 2 2022 5:09 utc | 123

@ psychohistorian | Jul 2 2022 1:10 utc | 94

Yes a key point, it is only through inherited wealth or position that the truly stupid or deluded come to power.

Posted by: MarkU | Jul 2 2022 5:14 utc | 124


Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 21:33 utc | 55


"Like the Witch in the Wizard of Oz when splashed with water by Dorothy, the West is shrinking, dissolving into a morass of its own making. The Collective West that includes Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and to some degree South Korea must use the weakening of its Master to break free so individual nations don't get sucked into that same morass. To do so, they must understand that the EU/NATO/AUKUS, etc., are instruments of control wielded by the Outlaw US Empire to get its way because that's all it gives a damn about--and that doesn't include its citizen's interests, only those of the Power Elite."

Karlof1,

very well put. The citizen's interests are strictly secondary, illusory and incidental as their primary role is to be tax cows.

i have conducted my own vox populi poll with a reasonable cross section across friends, colleagues and acquaintance in Australia and New Zealand. I conclude a majority of people, even those not normally interested in politics, are very afraid the US will drag them into another disastrous and unwindable war with Russia and China. They have seen it before their eyes too often in the recent past. Trust in governments has been lost.

For the US power elite to 'get its way' means long term control and division of Syria as outlined by Yinon. Russia stands in the way of that but not anymore.

Posted by: Paul | Jul 2 2022 5:52 utc | 125

From the standpoint of Russia, they crossed the Rubicon when they invaded Ukraine.
Everybody knows the reason: it was the permanent armament, militarization and creation of fascists groups which permanently attacked "Russian" people. It was a permanent "provocation" which followed strategies which were elaborated in US think tanks decades ago, even when the Sowjetunion still existed.
US Thinks Tanks, or their members, are not stupid, the opposite is true (listen to George Friedman).

Politicians are often unwilling or incapable to fulfill the right strategy, but in the whole, they follow the line, the "Deep State" strategists are developing and, in the case of the Sowjetunion, history proved them right. At a first glance. So the US followed the decade old strategy to weaken the "Sowjetunion" with their "Stay behind" network and the strategy was the old strategy they started in Germany where they established fascists terrorists for the case of an Sowjet "Overthrow" (that let occasionally to results like the bombing in Music, Germany, "Oktoberfest Attentat, https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oktoberfestattentat )

Same strategy in Ukraine, with "Neo" Nazis, created or supported by the "west", on all levels, created "universities" like Soros, where they could tele control students which went on the streets to "protest" against Janukowitsch, "NGO"s which were CIA dependents (like "Mother of soldiers" in Russia, created and financed by "NED") and so on.

If your opponent has a deep strategies, like in chess, you 1) need to know this strategy, which the Russians did, and 2) you should have a long term counter strategy

So, I ask myself, were the Russian aware of those developments?
Of course they were: they have much more and deeper informations and understanding than me or others strangers

Did they develop a long term counter strategy?
Of course they have on. Or two. Or three.

If you counter such a long term strategy, like the of the US, which is decades old, and has one strategy connected like chain links, or a network to each other, would you stop when you countered the last move?

I don't think so.

Therefore, I highly doubt the theory of MoA that Russia would stop at the southeast of Ukraine.
Could they stop?
What would happen if they stop?
If the west would be willing to negotiate because they need the oil and gas?
If the Russians wouldn't control the whole Ukraine, the war would end, peace negotiations would be activated instead, the West would have time to build up the industrial background they transferred to China or destroyed by ruin our century old (Auto)-Industrie, like in Germany: all would be happy
Everybody?

Remember they think tanks in the US? Their strategies are decades old. Would those think tanks, the Deep US State, their "elite" stop with their work?
No, they are elaborating, developing, invent their strategies because they have a goal. We all know what their goal is: with the transfer of technique and knowledge from Germany to USA after WWII someone could think, they imported not only technology but also ideology...

They are busy, they are working, they invent strategies, hour for hour, day by day, month by month, the whole year, decades, not only by day, but also at night, while we sleep: right now, they are sitting in work groups in meeting rooms, conferences or out in the nature, what they can do to counter the Russian counter attack on their decades old strategy.

When Russian is stopping in South East Ukraine, the "West" will take the resources, and after one or two years, they will start the same procedure, they already established in Ukraine after WWII (WW I). And if they don't restart their "work" after one or two years, they would restart it after 10 or 20 years, when "nobody" in the "West" would remember the peace treaty from 2022. The same procedure like after 1990. Or after 2014.

In my opinion, Russia has crossed the Rubicon with that in mind, off course they (or at least some) knew it already, from 1990, or 2014. And I think, although Russia is versatile in adapting their strategy on the fly according to new developments, that they can't afford to leave one inch of Ukraine to the US.

They "have" to control the whole Ukraine, either the one way or they other. While integrating Southeast of Ukraine into Russia, they "have" to establish a strong control system over that what is left after they finished their "first stage".

(That also implies that Europe is between the hammer and ambos if we insist to our role as US slaves)

Posted by: Seeräuberballade | Jul 2 2022 5:58 utc | 126

Re the sale of Western weapons by Ukrainians to the Russians or elsewhere... An article from the Rybar Telegram channel...

Arms trade on the line of contact and indirect deliveries of military equipment from Europe to Russia by Ukrainians

In the context of the news (https://t.me/vzglyad_ru/57577) about the transfer of another six units of CAESAR self-propelled guns by France to Ukraine, we want to talk a little about how things are with the arms trade on the line of contact.

We already wrote that two CAESAR self-propelled guns went to the Russian side for a ridiculous 120 thousand dollars. At the same time, Ukrainian negotiators initially requested $1 million for the launcher.

How it looks technically in practice:

Negotiations are underway through special forces on the possibility of acquiring one or another model of foreign equipment;

Since this whole thing is taking place on the line of contact, control over specific samples of military and military equipment received from the West is rather conditional there: the maximum that can be counted on is a relatively timid commander and rather zealous representatives of the SBU who will not give a damn on the reputational losses of Ukraine in case of loss of foreign equipment;

The Russian side acts as a picky buyer who does not need outdated weapons and military equipment: everything that is needed was obtained by undercover intelligence and so on. Local Ukrainian businessmen are trying to cash in and somehow sell the RF Armed Forces what they have. As a result, the deals go through, but are guided by the Russian side, at the same time, only by the expediency of maintaining contacts with the enemy;

in the line of special forces, they agree on the organization of a massive artillery raid on a certain already empty square to divert attention while the actual transfer of equipment is carried out;

The Russian side has already expressed interest in acquiring HIMARS. They asked for more ammo.

To the Russian side, we repeat, such deals provide an opportunity to maintain working contacts with the Ukrainian side, which in the future will allow solving much more pressing issues. From Ukrainian the parties have a great desire not to fight and earn.

That's how they get along.

#Russia #Ukraine #France
@rybar

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 6:01 utc | 127

More bad gas news for Europe... Reportedly, BOTH Nord Stream lines will be shut down for scheduled maintenance from 11 to 21 July.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 6:10 utc | 128

Posted by: bevin | Jul 2 2022 0:55 utc | 93

Most international debt being the result of obvious predatory lending, not only should such debt be repudiated but such lenders and their compradors should be the subjects of international organized-crime law-enforcement.

Posted by: John Kennard | Jul 2 2022 6:13 utc | 129

Patroklos | Jul 1 2022 21:45 utc | 58

re deception: "The Russian specialty has always been maskirovka. I recall reading about Operation Bagration in '44. An entire Soviet army was positioned opposite Army Group South and given orders to pretend preparing for an offensive. Huge resources were committed purely for deception."


Full text of "DTIC ADA211726: Soviet Operational Deception: The Red Cloak"

Soviet Operational
Deception:

The Red Cloak

-foreword--

The IJ.S. Army believes that deception is a vital part of
military operations. Field Manual 100—5, Operations, acknowl¬
edges that the Soviet Army mastered operational deception in
World War II. While its success is widely recognized, there are
lew published Western assessments of Soviet operational decep¬
tion.

Soviet Operational Deception: The Red Cloak, by Lieutenant
Colonel Richard N. Armstrong, examines the role of operational
deception in the Red Army's World War II victories. This
Combat Studies Institute special study focuses on operational-
level deception planning, allocation of resources, and deception
measures used during buttle in the Lvov-Handomierz operation
of July 1944. Lieutenant Colonel Armstrong’s insightful study
demonstrates the clear connection between the wise use of de¬
ception and Soviet battlefield success.

Posted by: pogohere | Jul 2 2022 6:30 utc | 130

@ John Kennard | Jul 2 2022 6:13 utc | 128 who wrote
"
Most international debt being the result of obvious predatory lending, not only should such debt be repudiated but such lenders and their compradors should be the subjects of international organized-crime law-enforcement.
"

I like your idea and I think starting with Ukraine would be a great jumping off point into the morass of empire crimes against humanity

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 2 2022 6:37 utc | 131

First, my admiration to b for this post - clarity is the essence of creative brilliance. Bear and kraken - superlative imagery that goes beyond simply an offshoot of naziism extracted and nullified by superior Russian strategy, into parable, into fable.

Wikipedia elaborates on what a kraken is; here's the sonnet by Tennyson:

"Below the thunders of the upper deep;

Far, far beneath in the abysmal sea,

His ancient, dreamless, uninvaded sleep

The Kraken sleepeth: faintest sunlights flee

About his shadowy sides: above him swell

Huge sponges of millennial growth and height;

And far away into the sickly light,

From many a wondrous grot and secret cell

Unnumbered and enormous polypi

Winnow with giant arms the slumbering green.

There hath he lain for ages and will lie

Battening upon huge sea-worms in his sleep,

Until the latter fire shall heat the deep;

Then once by man and angels to be seen,

In roaring he shall rise and on the surface die."

So, too, bevin @ 93 describes the bear "slowly ambling towards victory..." Beautiful, bevin! You didn't mention Greece -- I saw odious debt gain charge of that nation - we all saw it - the Greeks lived it --- OXI! Let it be!

I once said, early in these kraken depravations, where is the great literature of this time, which always comes with adversity? Here in this thread it is being born.

Thank you all.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 2 2022 6:39 utc | 132

such lenders and their compradors should be the subjects of international organized-crime law-enforcement.

Posted by: John Kennard | Jul 2 2022 6:13 utc | 128

---

History shows that lenders target themselves once their claims are repudiated.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 2 2022 6:58 utc | 133

Seeräuberballade #125

In my opinion, Russia has crossed the Rubicon with that in mind, off course they (or at least some) knew it already, from 1990, or 2014. And I think, although Russia is versatile in adapting their strategy on the fly according to new developments, that they can't afford to leave one inch of Ukraine to the US.

They "have" to control the whole Ukraine, either the one way or they other. While integrating Southeast of Ukraine into Russia, they "have" to establish a strong control system over that what is left after they finished their "first stage".

I rest assured that Russian and its Ukrainian allies understand that perfectly well. See my post above #119 and do watch the utoob - even if you dislike Ritter - the logic is shared here.

If Russia can sustain a regular and ongoing success for months to come, they will avoid the war fatigue at home paradox. Providing Ukrainian people with refuge and liberation from the Ukrainian nazi commanded forces will bring more and more support for their operation and severely undermine nazi mercenary recruitment from afar.

The people of this world by an overwhelming majority detest nazism and can see clearly that its eradication on a almost total basis is highly desirable. What many people fall victim to is pernicious propaganda designed to assuage their fears while rsoles promote the enemy within. That is what NATO and EUKUSA have done, and will continue to do, until we do our bit to close them down.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 7:37 utc | 134

Most people in Kiev are Russian speaking, even if some of them might (have) to say they are Ukrainians. Lot of those hardy Ukrainians are newcomers to the city, especially from western part of the Ukraine. There had been shouting fights in the city transport between them about Russian-speaking before 2014, and slowly stopped after so many Nazis running around in the city after the Nuland putsch. So, most of the real Kievans await liberation from those Nazis, and will not fight the Russians, if/when they arrive.

Most probably this could be what's left of Ukraine, when the Ukraine would be ready to become an EU member.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 7:49 utc | 135

@Nara | Jul 2 2022 3:35 utc | 109

El Bolero de Ravel is unique: take it in or out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy5Ve3338-E
Wow, that's very cool indeed!! Thank you for that. It gives me a flashback from the times the West still had some culture to spare.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 2 2022 7:51 utc | 136

And, also certain parts of the Ukraine will be added to Belarus..and the there will be a integrated Belarus and Russia.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 7:53 utc | 137

>> too scents | Jul 2 2022 6:58 utc

Sounds interesting! Please elaborate for any of us late learners.

Posted by: dfg | Jul 2 2022 8:02 utc | 138

Posted by: pogohere | Jul 2 2022 6:30 utc | 129
-------------
Thank you for the link.
Remember the 40-mile long stationary (sitting duck) column near Kiev in the beginning of the SMO...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 8:10 utc | 139

@dfg | Jul 2 2022 8:02 utc | 137

---

As exemplified by Richard Cantillon.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 2 2022 8:15 utc | 140

In case nobody has posted this yet another twitter mega thread from Will Schryver

https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1542973048483000320

Why the US/NATO could never win and will never fight a war against Russia – unless the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult somehow seizes the reins of power, in which case, it will become the biggest catastrophe in US military history, and likely result in a nuclear war:

Key Points

For me, one of the most intriguing aspects of the unprecedented levels of propaganda beclouding the ongoing Ukraine War are the incessant claims, from the very beginning, of the alleged strategic, tactical, and logistical ineptitude of the Russian military.
The theme of the bumbling Russians was clearly preconceived and coordinated, and commenced in earnest within the first 24 hours of hostilities. It is also apparent, to me at least, that it has emanated almost exclusively from the CIA/MI6 analyst/think-tank complex.
CIA/MI6 fronts like Oryx, Bellingcat, and ISW have pumped out this narrative so relentlessly that it has now been ubiquitously enshrined as “received wisdom”, even to the point of entering into the body of assumptions embraced by many who I expected to be more discerning.

I’ve concluded this unrelenting narrative must have as its aim the persuasion of the public and policy-makers in NATO countries that western militaries are so vastly superior to their Russian counterparts that no one should have reservations about making war against them

So, I leave the reader to judge the facts of the matter in terms of Russian military ineptitude and massive logistical failures. And with that preface, let’s turn to the primary question: could NATO fight and win a war against the Russians on this same battlefield?
My answer is an emphatic NO, and for three distinct but equally disqualifying reasons:
1) There is zero evidence that NATO soldiers are superior to Russians.
2) Sufficient NATO forces could NEVER be assembled and equipped to defeat the Russians in their own backyard.
3) Even the attempt to concentrate sufficient US forces in the region to take on the Russians would result in the disintegration of the global American Empire and rapidly accelerate the already-in-progress transition to a multipolar world.

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jul 2 2022 8:17 utc | 141

"Providing Ukrainian people with refuge and liberation from the Ukrainian nazi commanded forces will bring more
and more support for their operation and severely undermine nazi mercenary recruitment from afar."

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 7:37 utc | 133

Yep, straight out of the Chu Mao PLA playbook in China in the '30s & 40s. Hearts and minds, a concept the US only talks about but has never understood.

I agree with MarkU that bevin's post @bevin | Jul 2 2022 0:55 utc | 93 was one of his best and join with others in expressing heartfelt thanks. Things seem
simpler with a framework like that to organize the facts. While reading it I could hear Michael Hudson in the background, "Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid".
They say payback is a bitch. I say not payback is a bigger bitch. Hoping to still be around when the cascade of odious debt cancellations begins to gather steam.
Go Bear!

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jul 2 2022 8:18 utc | 142

Why the US/NATO could never win and will never fight a war against Russia
Posted by: Aslangeo | Jul 2 2022 8:17 utc | 140
-------------
Why the US/NATO could never win and will never fight a war against Russia...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 8:30 utc | 143

@bevin #93

... in the form of wage cuts and the breaking of social pledges on such matters as education, healthcare and pensions.

The real betrayal is not the compradors and Western financiers, but the venal electorates who are happy to burden their descendants with future debt to pay for present consumption; ie, it's exactly those "social pledges" used by aspiring politicians to bribe voters, which lead to the debts in the first place.

We see what happens when politicians stop deficit spending - they get hounded for imposing "austerity".

Posted by: Observer | Jul 2 2022 8:31 utc | 144

Looks like the RF forces are moving to the suburbs of Kharkov...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 8:44 utc | 145

uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 23:31 utc | 85

Have you seen Gonzo Lira's latest on Twitter? A 50-page thread on how Pinochet was a hero and Allende a dictator who usurped power and destroyed Chilean democracy.

I kid you NOT.

Posted by: vato | Jul 2 2022 9:07 utc | 146

Those Yankees are right cards. Always with the jokes. Latest is the suggestion that they'd send guys into Ukraine with clipboards to tick off the serial numbers of the military stuff they've provided. Make sure it's not gone AWOL. These folk not to provide any training or the like to the Ukrainians. Not at all. Perish the thought. That would be just wrong. Double plus ungood thinking. Like only a Ruskie would do.

Posted by: BonniePCharles | Jul 2 2022 9:11 utc | 147

She's getting worried of the sounds not that far away...https://youtu.be/yhGGcr_dTpI

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 9:22 utc | 148

Posted by: Observer | Jul 2 2022 8:31 utc | 143

Behold, the marvel of anatomy.

An arsehole which speaks!

How dare those poors want to have schools and hospitals and amenities they can use?

And without giving their wages back to the same business-owners who paid them? Unthinkable!

The state exists to guarantee the continued (and ever-increasing) stream of revenue into already wealthy pockets, and to crush onto the sidewalk whomever has a problem with this.

This, Lunatics of Alabama, is a graphical description of the Dictatorship of the Bourgeoisie.

Posted by: Arganthonios | Jul 2 2022 9:32 utc | 149

But what would happen if a Russian military contingent were invited into Argentina and came to be stationed there, as a tripwire against gunboat diplomacy,

What do you imagine ? 50,000 or 100,000 soldiers funded by Russia with long supply lines across Atlantic ?

Monroe Doctrine might be suspended ?

Cuba cost USSR a fortune annually - $4 billion back in 1983. - so round $12 billion nowadays.......so maybe Russia wants to spent $40 billion a year in Argentina to get sun for its soldiers - would need to use conscripts of course.

Maybe Russia could start having foreign bases like USA - and go bankrupt.

I think Washington would agree to anything that bankrupts Russia

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 2 2022 9:34 utc | 150

So, I leave the reader to judge the facts of the matter in terms of Russian military ineptitude and massive logistical failures

You seem to assume such things do not happen each and every time military is deployed !
I thought it was part and parcel of military action that as Moltke The Elder noted:

Kein Operationsplan reicht mit einiger Sicherheit über das erste Zusammentreffen mit der feindlichen Hauptmacht hinaus. Nur der Laie glaubt in dem Verlauf eines Feldzuges die konsequente Durchführung eines im voraus gefaßten in allen Einzelheiten überlegten und bis ans Ende festgehaltenen, ursprünglichen Gedankens zu erblicken.

I know Hollywood always scripts it so perfectly, but then again only one film about the Vietnam War was ever made by a director who served in combat there - Oliver Stone.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 2 2022 9:38 utc | 151

This article addresses a more general issue I am confused about.
I recall thinking the Donbas would be conquered easily and that the real problem was the cities. Well that was a quite uninformed assumption. I am still easily convinced that the Donbass will be conquered by Russia, even if much slower than I originally thought, but what about the cities then, and there are at least Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, then Mykolaiv and further on Kryvyi Rih.
It is possible that the defeat in the Donbass leads to the collapse of the whole Ukranian defense but that is not up to Russia to decide and there are people on the other side who prefer things to drag on, even if not at the current high intensity, and who really don't mind whether Ukraine gets destroyed completely.

The Kraken case discussed here is relevant in two ways: since fighting cities is very hard so it makes sense to lure troops out of the cities and then the Donbass may not just be about conquering the territory but about trying to get the whole army move in there and to get defeated. Where surrounding Kiev was a way to stop it sending reinforcements , could it be that them sending reinforcements is now encouraged?
Also the presence of extremist battalions may be a large factor stopping some cities from changing sides. Odessa is the first example I would think of then.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Jul 2 2022 9:42 utc | 152

..and to complete that second statement, reducing the power of Kraken may make Kharkov more amenable to changing sides.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Jul 2 2022 9:43 utc | 153

Don Bacon @ 111
EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia over Kaliningrad

A first sign of sanity among the insane. On the subject of debt used as a weapon...
Confessions of an Economic Hitman by John Perkins

I am sure many here have seen Perkin's book. It will answer some questions about how some countries leaders suddenly fell of the world stage into a coffin.

Posted by: circumspect | Jul 2 2022 9:49 utc | 154

vato #145

Thank you, I am not at all surprised after what has revealed in the past month or so. I spent some time in my younger days working with Chilean unionists and their families that fled to Australia. I have heard enough to know that Allende was a shining light of liberation from the evil oligarchy that ran Chile with an iron fist. I am still a firm supporter of the Allende social revolution and resistance to Pinochet and his scabrous heirs. Anyone who backs Pinochet belongs on the streets with the dog droppings. Perhaps I was too oblique in my earlier post.

Apologists for Pinochet are apologists for nazis and there is no shortage of them in Chile and elsewhere. Sad that Duran gave him so much oxygen after the realisation in Ukraine of his 'escape' report. I walked away disgusted.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 9:50 utc | 155

Tuyzentfloot #151

The concept of specific battle points performing as strong nazi magnets is embedded in the nazi belief system and well understood by Russian and liberation forces. After all the nazi team has been building reinforced assault trenches since their initial assault in 2015 and as they pushed further east they dug in more trench systems. So they have a established the hardware to fall back on over seven years. They are now at their first lines of 2015 beyond is open lands, a few towns and cities but little reinforced battle lines.

Simultaneously they have established a victory consciousness and perhaps beliefs of sacred battle achievements in areas that they are now losing. Their nazi magnet is stronger in those locales and they will fight like demons to retain their glorious memories. So they send reinforcements. I understand two battle groups moved north from Odessa in the last 24 hours. Good, as that depletes the locale and likely feeds the maw of the cannon fire.

And so it will go on until the warp threads that hold the nazi fabric are corroded and destroyed. Russia and its liberation allies can stand off mostly and shell the front lines day and night while inexorably advancing when the easy win appears. The Uke forces eventually will unravel and chaos will swallow all morale, all courage, and then desperation and rout will finish the resistance. This seems inevitable now but the timing is obscure.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:14 utc | 156

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 9:50 utc | 154

Allende wasn't a revolutionary, Allende was a reformist; and the process he led in Chile was not a revolutionary process, it was a reform process.

I'm not saying this to disparage him in the slightest

If there is one thing that capitalists and fascists (oops! I said the same thing twice!) hate even more than socialist revolutionaries, it is socialist reformists.

Why?

Because it means that their carefully curated political sideshow isn't perfectly clamped down, to the point that some actors dare telling them what to do without putting the barrel of a gun to their faces. And given that capitalists (and fascists, which are the same thing just without pretenses of civility) are a class of rampant absolutist pseudo-aristocrats with nobody to answer to, ain't nobody going to tell them what to do without a physically threatening "or else".

P.S.: If gonzalo's purpose is to promote Pinochetism among pro-russians, for all I care, he can fall off a helicopter into the high seas.

Posted by: Arganthonios | Jul 2 2022 10:18 utc | 157

Snake Island. Russia moves out and abandons it. Official MoD story, it's a "gesture of good will" to open grain export corridor.

Andrei Martyanov: 'purely political decision to remove Ukie "argument" about grain "blockade"'

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/06/some-off-cuff-remarks.html

Really???

Some less biased takes on it:

Larry Johnson: 'was simply a cost/benefit decision'

https://sonar21.com/russia-grinds-on-and-ukraine-chases-a-squirrel/

Andrea Galliani: ' il controllo dell’Isola dei Serpenti richiede probabilmente un numero di perdite in truppe, mezzi, navi, aerei, elicotteri, droni e sistemi missilistici, superiore ai vantaggi che si incassano a controllarlo, almeno in questa fase della guerra.' (in essence, the costs outweighed the benefits)

https://www.analisidifesa.it/2022/07/il-ritiro-russo-dallisola-dei-serpenti/

Once again, Martyanov proves that for all his knowledge, expertise and fancy formulas, when it comes to serious analysis, he is incapable of objective observations regarding his beloved Russia. His rose coloured glasses blind him from drawing even the most obvious conclusions. I guess the irony of his frequent rants criticising Western analysts spewing partisan patriotic bias still hasn't dawned on him.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 2 2022 10:24 utc | 158

BonniePCharles #146


Those Yankees are right cards. Always with the jokes. Latest is the suggestion that they'd send guys into Ukraine with clipboards to tick off the serial numbers of the military stuff they've provided.


You reminded me of the serial number in the Buk missile head that shot down the MH17 flight. It was a Ukrainian Buk missile from their inventory. Yes, supplied by Russia years before but stored in the Ukrainian weapons depot and used by Ukrainian Buk surface to air missile systems.

All weapons of that scale have serial numbers and are very carefully recorded on clipboards in Russia and Ukraine. Well at least they did in those days.

The missile head was proudly placed in a display by the Dutch military as evidence of the 'Russian atrocity' and it was filmed AND spotted by attendees afaik. Plenty to read on that at John Helmer, Dances with bears site.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:25 utc | 159

Chances are that Belarus and Russia would join into one Union State, where Putin will be the head of the Union State. All former USSR countries are invited to join the Union. The Union might have one central bank, one currency, one army, but with different heads of states in different member states. Might happen very quickly. Now, that EU is sort of dying...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 10:25 utc | 160

Arganthonios #156

Thank you, point taken, he was a fine leader of many fine people who simply preferred economic justice and fair distribution to naked capitalism.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:28 utc | 161

Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 2 2022 10:24 utc | 157
------------------------------------

That Marty guy has no "beloved" Russia. He was born in Baku, Azerbaijan. In 1991, he was without a country to call his own...and later in those infamous 90s ran away to...the Empire of Lies...oops!

He says he was a student of an "academy" which was never an academy, and that school is long closed...on 03.07.1992 by order of the Azerbaijan president. Well, like Ze says, Marty also says...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 10:32 utc | 162

Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 2 2022 10:24 utc | 157
---------------
John Helmer, by the way, lives in Moscow...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 10:34 utc | 163

Bevin @ 93

Very well said. It’s nice to see imperialism finally meet its match. And by powers interested in the general well being of the world.

——————

financial matters May 5, 2014 at 1:47 pm

Western countries would often come into these resource rich countries and develop the infrastructure to ‘mine’ them and ship them out. Certain elites in these countries were made rich. The money was not used to develop the local economies but rather that labor was exploited. And they took out loans denominated in US dollars instead of using their own currency.

Cheap employment was found in China, again exploiting labor while making certain exporters rich.

The US came in to supply the markets for these goods helped by the fact that it had the global currency. This hurt its domestic markets for production again exploiting labor. Money that could have been used to build factories was used for asset appreciation. This caused the wage destruction to become less noticeable especially for those able to leverage this asset appreciation which included much of the ‘middle class’ as long as it lasted. It ended with the banks being bailed out and given the assets.

That’s my short version anyway.

For a more detailed examination I would suggest Michael Hudson

SuperImperialism (1972), Global Fracture (1977). Trade, Development and Foreign Debt (1992, updated 2009) and the recent Bubble and Beyond

Posted by: financial matters | Jul 2 2022 10:36 utc | 164

Et Tu #157

Speaking of wheat, by now with aged grain, warm weather and likely less than perfect storage, it will be a seething mass of weevils.

An Australian union song about weevils in the flour and an island in a river.

Sung by Declan Affley.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:38 utc | 165

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jul 2 2022 8:17 utc | 140
"The theme of the bumbling Russians was clearly preconceived and coordinated, and commenced in earnest within the first 24 hours of hostilities."

Brian Berletic's video today at his New Atlas Youtube channel quotes from a 2015 Washington Post story which posited that when Russia went into Syria that it would be unable to do anything much to change the outcome of that civil war. Brian points out the exact same notions were in the MSM then as now - and look how Syria turned out: an Assad win (except for the US and Turkish occupied areas, so far.)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 10:41 utc | 166

ostro #162

John Helmer, by the way, lives in Moscow...

John has an interesting trajectory. From Australia and a senior policy maker in the Whitlam government. Hugely influential in economic reform. Then to the USA and senior policy in the Jimmy Carter presidency and finally off to Moscow where he is sort of retired and thinking well.

One could go there regularly for a dose of sanity and fine insights.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:43 utc | 167

The usual turds have surfaced. A toilet must have overflowed somewhere.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 10:47 utc | 168

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 10:34 utc | 162

John Helmer lives in Australia. He is banned from entering Russia since the early 2010's. He clarified this point a couple of weeks ago on Twitter after someone asked him why he sometimes writes under his articles "from Moscow".

Posted by: vato | Jul 2 2022 10:53 utc | 169

Et Tu #157

Once again, Martyanov proves that for all his knowledge, expertise and fancy formulas, when it comes to serious analysis, he is incapable of objective observations regarding his beloved Russia.


Haha yes he can sure pile on the dismissive scorn and belittling. He is a perfect case study in the rhetoric of scorn and derision.

I go there from time to time to get his take but find it difficult to stay for long. He makes the extreme bitterness of andrographis taste like sweet basil.

I still like the guy because he is just what the USA ruling class in both politics and military need - a relentless vicious critic.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:54 utc | 170

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:43 utc | 166
------------------------------------------------------
Yes, the background of John Helmer, Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson etc can be traced, while the "naval expert from Baku" cannot be traced.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 10:57 utc | 171

vato #168

John Helmer back in Oz!! I missed that, good news, he has arrived in interesting times (perhaps).

I guess he kicked a Russian bear in the carbunkle once too often.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:58 utc | 172

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:54 utc | 169
------------------------------

In those infamous 90s, people could get a chance to move to the US...by giving certain "help" to US agents in that area, the volatile North and South Caucasus...Like some of those Afghans, who got airlifted from Kabul last year...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 2 2022 11:01 utc | 173

waynorinorway #141

Go Bear!

YES we agree on that. My shout at the bar.

Go Bear!

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 11:07 utc | 174

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:58 utc | 171 I guess he kicked a Russian bear in the carbunkle once too often.

HAHAHA. Almost!

From this aptly written piece On Exile

In my case I’ve been driven into exile more than once. The current one is lasting the longest. This is the one from Moscow, which began with my expulsion by the Foreign Ministry on September 28, 2010. The official sentence is Article 27(1) of the law No. 114-FZ — “necessary for the purposes of defence capability or security of the state, or public order, or protection of health of the population.” The reason, a foreign ministry official told an immigration service official when they didn’t know they were being overheard, was: “Helmer writes bad things about Russia.”

Posted by: vato | Jul 2 2022 11:11 utc | 175

I think Russia would crush NATO and so does NATO which is why NATO relied on MAD and the function of NATO was (is?) to hold or slow down front lines giving the US time to arrive with manpower and/or nuclear war.

However...

NATO vs. Russia: don't match western hubris with eastern hubris.

Most of what has been sent into Ukraine seems to be old and/or junk and/or badly suited for Ukrainian needs. It is also hard to believe that this would significantly impact the overall ability of NATO (whatever that might be).

NATO has every incentive to lie about it and pretend to be empty.

NATO training just like any other training in anything by anyone anywhere will only be able to do so much. That's one reason why selection processes are normally used both before, during, and after.

Whether or not NATO has any strengths at all the conflict in Ukraine as it has been fought is not playing to NATO strengths.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 2 2022 11:25 utc | 176

vato @ 145

Did you bother to read it? Did you notice what Lira uses for sources? Primary information comes from his grandfathers, both of them. The author is recounting family history. Pinochet and Allende are both his own family.

This does not mean he is right. It does mean he is uniquely placed, and has access to information you and I do not have.

Evaluate sources. Stop believing in persons. Stop 'liking' and 'disliking'. Seek information, not feelz.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 2 2022 11:39 utc | 177

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 10:38 utc | 164

I have it on LP record sung by Gary Shearston
I used to sing it to my kids

Posted by: watcher | Jul 2 2022 11:39 utc | 178

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 2 2022 11:39 utc | 176

I' ve read it. It' a bunch of balooney. And Lira is a notorious liar. So fuck you, Hippie and fuck Lira!

Posted by: vato | Jul 2 2022 11:59 utc | 179

warcher #177

I remember Don Henderson singing it at a peace concert organised against the Vietnam war. I heard Declan Affley sing that and many others at a peace pissup once. Long time ago. Good memories of good company.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 12:06 utc | 180

@Et Tu 157

Once again, Martyanov proves that for all his knowledge, expertise and fancy formulas, when it comes to serious analysis, he is incapable of objective observations regarding his beloved Russia. His rose coloured glasses blind him from drawing even the most obvious conclusions. I guess the irony of his frequent rants criticising Western analysts spewing partisan patriotic bias still hasn't dawned on him.

Yes, I tend to agree with you. He is interesting and informative when discussing technical aspects of military matters; but much less so in his ranting posts about humans and their various motivations.

Posted by: echelon | Jul 2 2022 12:11 utc | 181

vato #174

I recall that he wrote the occasional critcal essay but mostly seemed very supportive. Maybe he was too close to an opposition party but unlikely the Communist Party. He is a stalwart critic of the Dutch witch hunt on MH17 and the idiot englander Novichok nonsense with the Skriples.

I will examine the detail.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 12:14 utc | 182

Arnaud Bertrand. @RnaudBertrand. Apr 10, 2022·
We used to think that Russia's economy was the equivalent of a small European country.
Maybe never before has an economy's importance been so grossly misjudged.
[ya think???]
French economist Jacques Sapir explains what happened (at 44:13): https://youtube.com/watch?v=ssked06Nj28…

Small thread on what he says:
To him "the war made us realize that the Russian economy is considerably more important than we thought"
He says that a big reason for this misjudgment is exchange rates.
If you compare Russia's GDP by converting from rubles to $, you indeed get an economy the size of Spain's.
However this is the worst possible way of comparing the size of economies.
A slightly more accurate way is to adjust for PPP (purchasing power parity: investopedia.com/updates/purcha…)
When you do so, you already realize that Russia's economy is actually more like the size of Germany's.
BUT you also need to take something else into account: "What is the share of the service sector versus the share of the commodities & industrial sector?"
To Sapir the service sector is today vastly overvalued in the world compared with the industrial sector and commodities.
He says that when you adjust for this Russia's economy is vastly bigger than Germany's.
His estimate is that Russia represents in fact maybe "5% or 6% of the world's economy", almost double the size it's normally estimated at on a PPP basis (statista.com/statistics/271…)
This is a fascinating way to look at it and it rings very true.
This crisis is making us realize that we used to take manufacturing, the industry and commodities for granted, i.e. an antiquated side of the economy compared to shiny new "services".
What we're going through is leading us to a huge rethink.
This will undoubtedly make us conclude that what we used to view as antiquated is much more valuable than we thought.
Ironically this will force a revaluation of the Russian economy that's very much in their favor.
It's also very interesting to revalue China's economy through that lens.
If we look at the Chinese economy simply based on exchange rates, it is a $17.7 trillion economy to the U.S.'s $23 trillion.
However, if we just look at it on a PPP basis we realize it is already an almost $27 trillion economy.
This means China's economy is already close to 20% larger than the U.S.'s:
Let's also revalue it by assuming that the service sector holds much less value than previously thought.
The service sector is about 54.5% of China's GDP (investopedia.com/articles/inves…) which is even less than in Russia (at 56.27%: statista.com/statistics/271…).
This means that if we roughly apply Sapir's ratio for Russia to China, we're in fact looking at the Chinese economy being probably about 30% of the world's economy on a PPP basis instead of the 18% it's currently estimated at (statista.com/statistics/270…)!
All in all, this means that China and Russia's economies combined are in fact likely about 35% of the world's economy when taking PPP into account as well as compensating for the over-valuation of the service sector.
The service sector accounts for roughly 77% of the U.S. economy (statista.com/statistics/270…) and 70% of the EU's economy
This means that conversely, the U.S. and EU's economies are probably overvalued today.
Consequently, while we used to think that the US + the EU make up about 30% of the world's economy on a PPP basis (statista.com/statistics/270… and statista.com/statistics/253…) this is probably vastly overvalued since their service sector is such an important share of their economies
To conclude all this might end up making us realize that the Chinese + Russian economies combined are in fact far larger than those of the West.
Maybe as much as 40% larger if we assume US + EU is in fact maybe just 25% of the world's economy vs 35% for China + Russia 😮

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513005692986175498.html

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 2 2022 12:18 utc | 183

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 1 2022 20:25 utc | 38

...But it was a necessary component of that expansion. NATO and the EU went hand in hand.

How then can Lavrov imply that the EU was not complicit in the events in the Ukraine of 2014? Surely “…Brussels swallowed the humiliating move by the opposition forces which perpetrated a coup in Ukraine in defiance of EU guarantees” does imply that the EU was not complicit, whereas the extracts and references above show quite the opposite.


I agree with your assessment. To me, it illustrates the Russian wish to leave the door open for the restoration of relations with Europe.

Lavrov's approach suggest an attempt to dissociate Europe from the US by working on the leadership. I don't know how successful that angle could be so long as it isn't followed by a convincing incentive. I'm pretty sure the Empire holds the most carrots and sticks with which to control the European leadership.

In my opinion, the above approach should be paired with a genuine effort to make the electorate aware of the true costs of Cold War II. This would be the best way to change the political will of European nations currently engaged in Imperial belligerence.

Posted by: robin | Jul 2 2022 12:27 utc | 184

All is going according to plan (the brilliant pinned cartoon at Geromans Twitter - including bare chested Putin.)

The Collective Waste will not be able to cook its goose this winter unless it turns on the NS2 gas tap.

They always knew that - just wanted the Russkies to build it and then steal it - like they have done for half a millennia of global robbery and slavery.

Russia has once again resisted. Failed to be Extended, and the latest proxy forces backed by the endless riches of stolen metals and gems and magik money, with whichever ‘genius general’ they have picked - beaten. Again.

I doubt Russia will march across Poland and through Brandenburg into champs elysee and all the way into Buckingham Palace and Windsor Castle to make the same point and sacrifice its millions.
They will now wait for the Peoples of Europe to decide that the bread is better buttered with the EAEU.

Being kind, I expect they will not let the European Peoples suffer as their worm tongue leaders want to. Turning back hundred years of gains by the masses back to servitude and poverty while a few are placed above them , with some god given right lies!

These LNG ships on the high seas are highly volatile and will either explode at sea, in the loading port or god forbid, the unloading ports of Europe. It is an insane escapade.
Most fuels are transported by pipeline, even the gas from the Milford Haven deep port in Wales - because it is SAFER. Grids provide security of supply.

As for the previously Nazi infested South American states rushing to join the BRIC’s as the R & C always knew it was a trojan horse designed to attack them from another direction. The Bankers puppet, Modi, is not there to upset the 400 year old claim on the subcontinent by the financiers of the East India co’s. Regardless of his own nationalist proto fascist button pushing.

But as in the feint of Kharkov, the truism of holding your enemy closer as a ‘partner’ allows for their superiority hubris to undo themselves. The Alex’s let Gonzalo unravel himself as much as the Measheimers because we all know they are from the same camp with different guises.

Fuck Nazis especially these idiot football ‘ultra supporters’, mere inventions of the forever Masters. No gains for their sociopath World Leaders & their families to enjoy forever far from where they enslaved and destroyed Peoples on the altars of false ‘nation states’ or prophets/profits. Destroy their myths of Money. Their fake religion of Economics. Their Pepsi/coke artificial left/right capitalist/anti capitalist bullshit. Let them draw themselves behind their walls within walls, to rise again like their mythical kraken to rule the world as they feel they always have.

I will play Russian music and read their books and marvel at their gains and sacrifices daily here in London. As I do daily more stridently with my friends who are blinded by the MSM they use to inform themselves of issues. The ‘Yo Blair’ moment as Bozo tried to fist bump the demented Biden picture whooshing over their heads...

All of these ‘Leaders’ should be shunned and all their loot removed from their progeny - only when that is guaranteed will future losers never be enticed to sell their own grannies and neighbours for such fools gold.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 2 2022 12:35 utc | 185

The Kraken Trick
doesn't that describe Russia's
basic over all strategy?

Or rather a defensive Kraken Trick -
it doesn't want to be pulled into Ukraine
with too many resources and leave the
homeland vulnerable, nor over extended going into
Ukraine such that the forces in Ukraine can be
isolated.

Posted by: librul | Jul 2 2022 12:46 utc | 186

Thanks to so many for excellent posts on this thread.

My son who is a budding professional classical musician has turned me on to Shostakovich - here's a selection:

Shostakovich Stalingrad Symphony #8

Posted by: Objective Observer | Jul 2 2022 12:52 utc | 187

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 2 2022 12:06 utc | 179

Ditto for me and Garry Shearston, who was big in the Sydney scene at that time. I wonder what happened to him? Anyway the song made a huge impression on me.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 2 2022 12:59 utc | 188

>Biden's Approval Rating Hits Disastrous New Low -- 38.4 here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jul 1 2022 21:27 utc | 54

Well known serial liar Donald Trump is not much better either . His approval rating is. Wait for it! Is 41.9% .............. A minimum of 50% would love to see the bum. Do hard time at the nearest "Club Fed Max". For his sins of January 6th, 2020......

All current potential sociopathic Republican candidates for 2024 are mediocre at best.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 2 2022 13:10 utc | 189

vato @ 178

Analytical technique that begins with "Fuck you" and ends with "Fuck you" is not enlightening.

At least you are straightforward and concise. The majority of all discourse, here or anywhere, is the same thing in more words.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 2 2022 13:13 utc | 190

That Marty guy has no "beloved" Russia. He was born in Baku, Azerbaijan. In 1991, he was without a country to call his own...and later in those infamous 90s ran away to...the Empire of Lies...oops!..."
ostro@161
Lots of people around central asia and eastern europe are in a similar position, are they not?
Men born in the Soviet Union of Russian parentage who found themselves living among foreigners, many of them old neighbours suddenly turned into racists hating Russians by propagandists and money from the US or Saudi Arabia or Pakistan. Or Turkey.
Isn't that one of the underlying causes of the war in Ukraine? Is it not the case that the recent attempted colour revolution in Kazakhstan included a "Russians go Home" element? Is it not a standing scandal and a denial of all their supposed 'values' that Russian speakers cannot vote in Latvia and are elsewhere treated as inferior?
I hold no brief for Martyanov who appears to have modelled himself on the 'stage Irishman' who has been haunting, amusing and, in the final analysis boring the shit out of audiences for centuries.
But let him alone. It is not his fault that he was born in Baku (there could be a song there!) nor that his naval training was on the Caspian with the Coast Guard. He is a source of considered opinion: take it or leave it and leave the poor old guy alone.
I forget who it was- Jonathan Swift I think- who said 'Just because I was born in a barn it doesn't mean that I'm a horse."
And lots of non Azeris have been born in Baku-the old Houston of the USSR.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 2 2022 13:20 utc | 191

Don Bacon@36:

You know Ukraine is in a catastrophic situation when the ISW site posts maps admitting huge Russian gains.

Posted by: morongobill | Jul 2 2022 13:22 utc | 192

"...If there is one thing that capitalists and fascists (oops! I said the same thing twice!) hate even more than socialist revolutionaries, it is socialist reformists...." Arganthonios@156

Avery good point and an historical truth: except in the most extreme conditions (a world war and a crumbling regime for example) all revolution begins as reform efforts thwarted by the ruling class. It is at that point that the supporters of reform suddenly understand the reality: constitutions and democratic rules are mere scraps of paper, it is all about power and class.
A perfect re-run of the Allende situation was just presented in the UK where every trick in the book was used to de-rail a modest (as was Allende's) programme of desperately needed social and economic reform put forward by Jeremy Corbyn ( am man who reveres the memory of Allende). People should study the Corbyn case: there are lots of tricks, from military threats, to foreign imperialist interventions to......sectarians affecting superior militancy.

As to this: "...P.S.: If gonzalo's purpose is to promote Pinochetism among pro-russians, for all I care, he can fall off a helicopter into the high seas.."
It is impossible to explain Lira's mild treatment at the hands of the Gestapo except in terms of a commonality of views. In the final analysis Lira is on the same side as the other fascists. Or maybe, like Philby in Spain, he is just pretending. Maybe the current President of Chile is too?

Posted by: bevin | Jul 2 2022 13:34 utc | 193

@ Melaleuca | Jul 2 2022 12:18 utc | 182

I wish there were a way to calculate GDP after subtracting the time spent gathered around reviewing PowerPoint slides.

Posted by: dfg | Jul 2 2022 13:35 utc | 194

@ Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 10:47 utc | 167

Lol. Happens from time to time. In defense of kicking out vk (whom I liked), b once commented that the bar was readable only because he actually does housekeeping/ bouncing that mostly goes unnoticed by us. My nitpicks aside, b does a fucking fantastic job.

Posted by: dfg | Jul 2 2022 13:42 utc | 195

"...The real betrayal is not the compradors and Western financiers, but the venal electorates who are happy to burden their descendants with future debt to pay for present consumption; ie, it's exactly those "social pledges" used by aspiring politicians to bribe voters, which lead to the debts in the first place.
"We see what happens when politicians stop deficit spending - they get hounded for imposing "austerity"..." Observer@143

That is the neo-liberal viewpoint. And it is necessary to hear it. But it is rarely true. It isn't true of Ukraine for example- no electorate voted to transfer billions to oligarchs. Nor is it true of Sri Lanka or Lebanon where democracy is distorted by religious and other influences to the extent that it barely exists.
And would it be true of the US for example? Does the system there really allow voters to choose?
It certainly wasn't true of the many Asian and Latin American countries driven by the IMF into austerity programmes in the past haldf century.
Your argument is the classic argument against democracy: if people have the vote they will steal the wealth of the rich, who know how to use it wisely, and piss it up the wall in extravagant living.
I think that you are wrong.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 2 2022 13:44 utc | 196

John Helmer lives in Australia. He is banned from entering Russia since the early 2010's. He clarified this point a couple of weeks ago on Twitter after someone asked him why he sometimes writes under his articles "from Moscow".

Posted by: vato | Jul 2 2022 10:53 utc | 168

Helmer, to his great credit, has steadfastly criticized the Oligarch system in Russia and the systemic corruption. He calls things as he sees them and no one in the west could claim he is just a "Putin fluffer". I was surprised that he is allowed to stay in Moscow, at least as his web site and Twitter feed state.

I could not find the Twitter post where he says he is now in Australia. Can you link it? If he has not been in Moscow for over 10 years, that is plenty of time to update his online profiles.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 2 2022 13:48 utc | 197

“It is like a finger pointing a way to the moon, don’t concentrate on the finger or you will miss all that heavenly glory”

A break from the obsession with fingers.

Geopolitik Sokolov: Russia and Iran will create an alternative to the Suez Canal beyond the control of the West

https://politexpert.net/23514537-geopolitik_sokolov_rossiya_i_iran_sozdadut_nepodkontrol_nuyu_zapadu_al_ternativu_suetskomu_kanalu
( Yandex browser is great for English translations of Russian sites )

Russia and Iran will speed up the construction of an alternative to the Suez Canal – the North-South transport corridor, which will connect the Indian Ocean with Russia and Europe. Why the project will become an outlet for the global opposition of Western countries, said an expert on geopolitics Konstantin Sokolov………

A great article worth reading which illustrates the global win/win co-operation taking place outside the narrow and limited controlling influence and self harming actions of the old colonial ‘Western’ hegemonic empire.

Posted by: Thatami | Jul 2 2022 13:50 utc | 198

Let's see if I have this correct. According to a lot of you, if you are not a full-throttled supporter of socialism or communism, you are by default, a nazi?

If you participate in the free market system in any form, that also makes you a nazi?

I would also like to know if there are any other things, say like being a Christian, that will by default, mark you as a nazi.

By the by here, I would rather see Russia win this war and I would like the win not to involve the use of atomic weapons. It would make it easier for people like me to break free of the corruptocrats infesting dee cee.

international socialist or national socialist. The only difference is the uniform.

I would also not mind see nato break apart. No more Americans fighting and dying for so arms dealers can make a few $$$ at the taxpayers expense.

international socialist, national socialist. The only difference is the uniform.

What's in a label?

Posted by: T.D. | Jul 2 2022 13:51 utc | 199

A perfect re-run of the Allende situation was just presented in the UK where every trick in the book was used to de-rail a modest (as was Allende's) programme of desperately needed social and economic reform put forward by Jeremy Corbyn ( am man who reveres the memory of Allende). People should study the Corbyn case: there are lots of tricks, from military threats, to foreign imperialist interventions to......sectarians affecting superior militancy.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 2 2022 13:34 utc | 192

Well, well.

This is an overstatement. Corbyn hasn't yet found his days ended under US bombardment of a public building, now has he?

I mean, maybe simply becaue it didn't take that much. But if it didn't take that much, it's safe to assume that the project was not as threatening, not as properly executed, etc.

Posted by: Arganthonios | Jul 2 2022 13:59 utc | 200

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