Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 14, 2022

Ukraine SitRep - Additional Defense Lines, A Failed Counterattack, Weapon Deliveries

On July 2 Lysichansk came under Russian control:

This comes only a week after the cauldron around Lysichansk began to close. Until a few hours ago there was still a chance to flee from Lysichansk but the only passable road was under Russian fire. It is not know yet how many made it out or how many gave up and were taken prisoners.

Some of those who retreated went to Siversk some 20 kilometer west of Lysichansk. That city will be the next bigger target in that campaign sector.

The speed of this operation was much faster than the one in Mariupol. That points to diminished capabilities and soldier motivation of the Ukrainian forces.

The now much shortened frontline frees up several battalion tactical groups on the Russian side which can now be refitted and rested to then move elsewhere.

The front has since consolidated:

In a week or two those BTCs which now rest and resupply will be back. They will create a new cauldron around Siversk and maybe Bakhmut, decimate the Ukrainian forces within it to then capture the whole area.

The artillery preparations for the next push had began immediately after the fall of Lysichansk. The 'week or two' have passed and the attack on the next defensive line (yellow line in the east) from Siversk to Kurdiumivka has begun. Yesterday ground fighting was reported within Siversk and Soledar.


Source: LiveUAmap (not fully updated) - bigger

In a week or two the line down from Siversk to Krasna Hora will probably be under Russian control. Bakhmut, which is very fortified, may take a few more days to fall.

The battle will then move to the next defensive line further west (also marked in yellow). That line is anchored in the north on Sloviansk which has a railway line (black) coming in from the west. That railway line allows the Ukrainians to supply their current frontline with heavy artillery ammunition and fuel.

Sloviansk will be attacked from the northwest, the northeast and southeast. The force disposition map below shows that the Ukrainian defenses in that area are rather weak.


Source: MilitaryLand.net - bigger

(The map above uses NATO symbology. The marking within the blue (friendly) rectangles shows the type of the unit. 'Crossed bandoliers' are infantry, 'tank tracks' stand for armored units, a black dot designates artillery, a combination of tank tracks and crossed bandoliers means mechanized infantry. The marking above the rectangle shows the size of the unit. An X means brigade (3,000-4,000 men), three vertical lines a regiment (1,000-1,500 men), two vertical lines a battalion (300-600 men) and so on. Each unit is 'organic' in that its has its own artillery or mortar group and other attached support like transport and medics.)

The Ukrainian lines in the northeast of the Donetzk oblast are held by pure infantry troops of dubious quality (i.e territorial defense brigades). Most of these have already been mauled by Russian artillery attacks and are down to 70% or less of their original strength. They have little capability to withstand the motorized (and armored) Russian forces that are moving against them. The Ukrainians have very few armored reserves behind the front that could intervene and oppose those Russian attacks.

Now let's look at the bigger picture in east Ukraine. I have marked 5 defense lines (yellow) which all run north to south along major highways or railroads.


bigger

The two in the east (right side) will fall within the next two or three weeks. The only really major one of the other lines is in the west (left side) running from Kharkiv through Dnipro down to to Zaporizhzhia in the south. It will be nibbled up piecemeal. Kharkiv, the anchor in the north is already under attack. Zaporizhzhia in the south is under long range artillery fire. The center around Dnipro will be attacked from the east as well as from the west side of the Dnieper river (see below). I believe that the Russian side intends to completely take that western line before the winter sets in.

Now let's look at the southern front where the Ukrainian forces attempted a counterattack on Kherson. For orientation: This map has Dnipro in the upper right.


bigger

Kherson in a major city on the western side of the Dnieper river. If the Russian side holds onto it it can move up to the economically important industrial mining area of Kryvyi Rih and from there launch an attack on Dnipro from a southwestern direction.

This is a major strategic danger for the Ukrainian side. That is why it collected lots of forces around Mykolaiv (Nikolaev in Russian transliteration) and attempted a counterattack on Kherson. On the force disposition map we can see motorized infantry, marine infantry, artillery, helicopter,  and missile brigades all positioned in or around Mykolaiv.


bigger

Over the last days those forces used heavy artillery in an attempt to destroy the reservoir dam and river crossing near Nova Kakhorvka on the right side of the above map. This would have flooded the area south of Kherson and would have made its defense way more difficult. But so far all major Ukrainian attacks on the dam and along the southern frontline have failed.

The next map shows the main reasons for that failure.


bigger

All the Ukrainian units in and around Mykolaiv have come under very heavy artillery fire by the Russian forces. Major targets were unit headquarters, ammunition dumps and any larger groupings of soldiers. The planned Ukrainian counterattack on Kherson was thereby destroyed even before it took up its starting position. I am not aware of any Ukrainian reserve forces that could be moved there to revive it.

All together the Ukrainian forces are in a dire state. They have little to withstand further moves by the Russian side.

Now let's look at the U.S. support for the Ukrainian forces.

Next to man portable small arms, Javelin anti-tank missiles and stinger anti-air missiles, a major U.S. delivery has been the 100 light howitzers M-777 and their standard 155mm ammunition. These are rather flimsy guns and slow to redeploy. Some 70% of these have by now been disabled or destroyed.

Those 100 howitzers did not have the digital systems that allows for precision ammunition to be used with them. The U.S. has since send another 18 M-777 howitzer with digital aiming systems and 1,000 rounds of precision ammunition to be used with them. The delivery included three artillery detection radars. Those three batteries, with six guns each, will thereby be used in a counter artillery mission against Russian artillery.

The U.S. has also delivered 18 12 HIMARS long range missile systems to the Ukraine. An additional 3(?) systems have come out of German and British depots. They are the new Wunderwaffe Du Jour.

The main use of the HIMARS system has so far been the destruction of several Russian ammunition depots (vid) some 50 kilometers (30 miles) behind the front lines.

The Russian side will use the obvious countermeasures against such attacks. Larger depots will move further back, smaller ones more near to the front will be dispersed and camouflaged. Missile and air defenses will be brought up to defend the depots. Special forces will move behind the Ukrainian front-lines to hunt down the HIMARS missile systems. I have seen two videos of such units attacking Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems far behind the front lines with anti-tank weapons and sharpshooter rifles.

Over the last weeks some HIMARS and other systems have been hitting Donetsk city and have caused a high number of civilian casualties. The Russians have launched special counter battery missions which have been successful in hunting some of those units down. Some Russian Tochka-U missiles systems, no longer in service with the Russian forces, have been given to the forces of the Donetzk Peoples Republic to defend their main city. The Tochka has a similar 100+ kilometer reach as the HIMARS but is less precise.

There is no oversight over where the 'western' weapon deliveries to the Ukraine go to. Here is a civil car with Albanian number plates loaded with British and U.S. anti-tanks missile. The Ukrainian military has admitted that such transfers are happening. We can only guess where those weapons will end up.

Of the 18 HIMARS the U.S. has delivered two were reportedly destroyed and one, including its ammunition, was allegedly sold to the Russian side. There were also reports that two French Caesar artillery systems have been sold to the Russians. Those will become nice show pieces right next to all those Nazi Tiger tanks that ended up in Russian military museums.

Tomorrow the parliament of the Russian Federation will hold a special session likely about the war in Ukraine. I have seen no hint of what it might decide to do but it will probably enable Russia's president to use more forces in Ukraine than he currently does.

The Ukrainian side is losing hundreds of soldiers per day which leads to lots of funerals with questionable symbolics (old video).

It is high time for the Ukrainian and 'western' side to stop the war and to re-enter into negotiations with the Russian side.

Posted by b on July 14, 2022 at 10:28 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Re Nazi funeral: curiously, there are some analysis that during WW2 nazis had a lot of support in Ukraine initially during the war, and could have easily recruited far larger number of Ukies against Red Army. But, in eyes of wehrmacht all Slavs looked the same (inferior), so nazi germany supposedly squandered that possibility.

Posted by: Abe | Jul 14 2022 10:49 utc | 1

Posted by: Abe | Jul 14 2022 10:49 utc | 1

Correct. Stalin didn't help by starving 3 million Ukranians during the 1930s.

Posted by: IvanTheNotSoTerrible | Jul 14 2022 10:55 utc | 2

This is a breath-taking overview of what is currently happening on the battlefield. I honestly have no idea how you manage to pick through the noise, grab onto the genuine signals to conclude these details and then--more importantly--summarize them in such a concise and effective manner.

Thanks, b--and anyone who is helping you.

Word is, on the Ukrainian side, that a big push on Kherson from Nikolaev will be coming. There has been / is coming a big delivery of T-72 tanks from "the west", enough to support an infantry push...somewhere.

I have a hard time believing it will come in the Kramatorsk region; a push from Odessa makes more sense, especially if the Ukrops can take out that dam.

Clearly, this is an inflection point in the war.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Jul 14 2022 10:57 utc | 3

Stephan Bandera was such an awful guy that when he wanted to work with the Nazis as a collaborator, he was instead locked up. Ukrainian nationalists massacred some 100k Poles while under Nazi occupation and today the Poles are all in for Ukraine because they apparently have found that it's ok. These are the sort of heroes and events that modern Ukraine and the West bases itself around

Posted by: leaf | Jul 14 2022 10:58 utc | 4

There are also reports of the Russians beefing up fortifications on bridges near Kherson. In anticipation of a Ukrainian counter offensive to cut supply lines to the city and the other parts of the Oblast North of the river.

Earlier attempts by the Ukies have been failures.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 14 2022 11:00 utc | 5

All these yellow lines should have been taken within the first 48 hours which, together with a Kiev leadership decapitation, would have brought the whole shooting-match to a speedy conclusion well before the US/UK/NATO/EU/ZION war machine had time to crank up.

But the bloodlands decreed otherwise.

Posted by: quasi_verbatim | Jul 14 2022 11:02 utc | 6

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/13/it-gets-ugly-inflation-shifts-to-services-food-fuel-spike-too-dollars-purchasing-power-swoons/


It Gets Ugly: Inflation Shifts to Services. Food, Fuel Spike Too. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Swoons.
by Wolf Richter • Jul 13, 2022


Services are now starting to power this inflation. And services are where people spend the biggest part of their budget. It’s where inflation is now getting entrenched, independent of commodity prices, and where it’s very tough to bring inflation under control. The declining commodities prices may help contain food prices and gasoline prices, but not services.

Inflation in June was also driven by food and gasoline where it’s staring consumers in the face on a daily basis, though some of the price pressures are now abating. And prices of durable goods, such as cars and electronics, are rising at a less ugly pace.

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, spiked by 1.3% in June from May, and by 9.1% year-over-year, the worst since 1981:

Posted by: inflation | Jul 14 2022 11:14 utc | 7

Stalin didn't starve 3 million Ukrainians. That is a Ukie nationalist lie. Amplified by anti-communist American pigs. All sorts of people die in the great movements of history. Collectivizing agriculture actually solved the food problem for the USSR. Class struggles occured. It was messy. Their were plagues of pests. People died. There was no genocidal intent. That is a fabrication of Applebaum and the Ukie fanatics. Same lies are pinned on Mao by moronic Americans and their capitalist dependents around the world.

Posted by: Ringo | Jul 14 2022 11:15 utc | 8

B is finally acknowledging reality, “I believe that the Russian side intends to completely take that western line before the winter sets in.”

I had expected Putins army to reach the Dnipier by September (that is an average advance of 7 klicks a day). As B recognizes the advance is less than 5 and more like 3 klick a day.
Being able to advance 3 to 4 thousand meters a day clearly demonstrates the Ukrainian military remains an effective fighting force.

All the “cauldrons” have accomplished are tactile victories. B was promising that up to 100000 were trapped and fixed in the Donbas cauldron and that the destruction of the Ukrainian army was assured.

The reality looks to be the Ukrainian forces have engaged in a very effective fighting withdrawal.

Posted by: Wobblie | Jul 14 2022 11:18 utc | 9

#9 is so stupid I think it's made in UK

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 11:27 utc | 10

Great SitRep! Nobody does these better than b.

Posted by: Haassaan | Jul 14 2022 11:28 utc | 11

"All the Ukrainian units in and around Mykolaiv have come under very heavy artillery fire by the Russian forces. Major targets were unit headquarters, ammunition dumps and any larger groupings of soldiers."


1000 dead nazis per day in Mykolaiv

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 11:33 utc | 12

The Nazi-funeral(vid) is from 2013!

Explanation and source:

HREF="https://youtu.be/jRVjSxPMSwE">Link to Russia Intel YouTube Channel

Ukrainians honor fallen Waffen-SS Galicia Division soldiers in 2013

"On July 28, in the village of Hologory in Zolochiv Oblast, the remains of 16 soldiers of the Galicia (Halychyna) Division, who died in July 1944, were found by searchers of the communal enterprise of the Lviv Regional Council. The fate of the people of Ukraine was addressed by People's Deputy of Ukraine Oleg Pankevich in the church of the village of Hologory. Representatives of patriotic public organizations, as well as a member of the Lviv Regional Council, the poet-songwriter Teodor Kukuruza, performed the song. Everyone present sang the national anthem of Ukraine. We must remember the fighters for the freedom of the native state. We will remind you that this year marks the 70th anniversary of the creation of the Ukrainian Galicia Division."

Posted by: Idoho | Jul 14 2022 11:33 utc | 13

The Nazi funeral is available on YT, it was uploaded to YT in 2016 and according to one comment depicts a funeral in 2013. Possible staged funeral!

Posted by: Lars | Jul 14 2022 11:35 utc | 14

We will see what the much ballyhooed Kherson counter-offensive brings. If that falls flat I think the before winter timeline is fairly likely, though I'd guess early summer 2023 for the far left line. Alot depends on the quality of the Ukrainian troops near Donetsk, and how well the cannon fodder is helping to preserve the better units.

I think NATO is going to throw everything they have into the counter-offensive, could prove to be a dangerous time for the nuclear war thing.

Posted by: Haassaan | Jul 14 2022 11:39 utc | 15

Wobblie @9

What strategy would you use if your goal was to demilitarize Ukraine while sparing Russian and civilian lives?
A) throw everything you have into the war and overrun all of Ukraine as quickly as you can
B) take your time, pound them from a safe distance, keep the fighting outside major cities

Posted by: aquileia | Jul 14 2022 11:40 utc | 16

Awesome SitRep. Thank you! I set up a monthly donation. I forgot the YT link in my previous comment.
https://youtu.be/Xrkmo-cxJz4

Posted by: Lars | Jul 14 2022 11:40 utc | 17

"All these yellow lines should have been taken within the first 48 hours"

They should have been to the Atlantic in 24 hours, that would have fixed NATO but good! What were the Russians thinking?

Posted by: Arthurdent | Jul 14 2022 11:49 utc | 18

I agree that the US / NATO ought to recognise reality and make peace. But they have gone so far down this road that the current “leaders” are just unable to reverse course. We are in for difficult times.

In the long run, NATO is dead though. Has been unable to keep the peace and is showing itself to be toothless. Eventually, Germany will rediscover that her economy is complementary with Russia and make peace. Much of Eastern Europe will hate this: they are endemically afraid of German / Russian rapprochement because it has tended in the past to make their own sovereignty tricky to maintain (eg the eighteenth century partition of Poland). But there is a logic to it.

Outside of Europe, the US is clearly over extended externally and is experiencing mega internal turmoil. Ultimately, I sense there will be a “Retreat from East of Suez” type moment at some point. Hopefully. This current crisis may lead to that directly, or after a similar experience with respect to Taiwan.

Once these things happen, they can be fast although rarely overnight. Britain was still very much a world power in the 1930s and arguably still the hegemonic state (as seen at the time without the benefit of hindsight) but by the late 40s the game was clearly up. Politically, too, pretty much everyone with political power supported the empire in the 30s and lots of vested economic interests were behind it. But again by the late 40s pretty much no one wanted to do what was needed to try to maintain it. The fact that Neo Con dogma dominates current US politics does not preclude change as circumstances alter. The question is how quickly and what drama occurs as part of that. We need to hope that the world does not end up with an equivalent catastrophe to WW2.

The writing is very much on the wall. We need statesmen who grasp it and who will manage the inevitable transition in a way that minimises dislocation and creates the right incentives for the emerging new order to be conducive to human welfare rather than destructive. Will these people emerge?

Posted by: Stephen | Jul 14 2022 12:11 utc | 19

Posted by: IvanTheNotSoTerrible | Jul 14 2022 10:55 utc | 2
---

Stalin, by the way, was a Gruzin (Georgian)...and Ze is a Jew...😏

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 12:11 utc | 20

@abe - Re Nazi funeral: curiously, there are some analysis that during WW2 nazis had a lot of support in Ukraine initially during the war, and could have easily recruited far larger number of Ukies against Red Army. But, in eyes of wehrmacht all Slavs looked the same (inferior), so nazi germany supposedly squandered that possibility.

Germany recruited a lot of 'Slavs'. Two full SS divisions, 14th Grenadier Division Galicia and the 2nd SS Tank Division 'Das Reich', were nearly completely manned by (west-) Ukrainians. Both had very high losses and were reconstituted, i.e. filled up again, several times.
There were also strong Ukrainian police forces who did the occupation and insurgency hunting for the Germans.

@leaf - Stephan Bandera was such an awful guy that when he wanted to work with the Nazis as a collaborator, he was instead locked up.

No correct. Bandera was a nationalist with a strong fascist ideology. He welcomed the German invasion and his troops committed various massacres with and without the Germans. He worked with the Germans quite well but when he tried to form a national Ukraine the Germans said no and locked him up in a luxury facility. He was later moved to Germany where in 1956 some Kremlin agents finally got to him.


Posted by: b | Jul 14 2022 12:17 utc | 21

⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine

▫️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine. The enemy suffers significant losses.

💥High-precision strikes near Bereznegovatoye, Nikolaev Region, Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, hit temporary deployment points of units of 35th Marine Brigade, 54th Mechanized Brigade, 81st Airmobile Brigade and 109th Territorial Defence Brigade. As a result of strikes, the total losses of these formations amounted up to 1,000 personnel and more than 100 pieces of military equipment.

💥High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit temporary deployment point of 14th Mechanized Brigade battalion manned by nationalists and foreign mercenaries near Chasov Yar, Donetsk People's Republic. The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 43 militants and about 170 injured.

🚁💥Russian army aviation hit temporary deployment point of 97th Battalion of 60th Mechanized Brigade of AFU near Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporozhye Region, with high-precision missiles. The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 30 militants and about 37 injured.

▫️Conflicts and clashes with the use of weapons have increased among nationalist fighters. On July 13, more than 200 fighters of the 226th Kraken nationalist formation refused to follow the command's order to move to the Kramatorsk area and claimed a "transfer" to the Kharkov city' territorial defence. During the ensuing fight with the commanders and the ensuing gunfight, 6 militants were killed.

Posted by: jr | Jul 14 2022 12:19 utc | 22

Correct. Stalin didn't help by starving 3 million Ukranians during the 1930s.

Posted by: IvanTheNotSoTerrible | Jul 14 2022 10:55 utc | 2

History tells us the great US drought 1933. Had a major impact on the US census 1940 vrs 1930 Population growth rate rapidly declined from the normal average ten year population growth rate since the dawn of the 20th Century.

Starting with 1900 21%, 1910 21%, 1920 15%, 1930 13%, 1940 7%*, 1950 14%, 1960 19%, and 1970 13% . This population growth rate data. Would indicate a huge spike in the overall mortality of USA citizens. From 1930 until 1940. Within the same time frame. *statistical deviation

“In 1940, the US population was supposed to make up at least 141.856 million people upon the preservation of previous demographic trends. As a matter of fact, the USA had the 131.409-strong population in 1940, of which only 3.054 million can be explained with changes in migration dynamics. Thus, 7.394,000 people simply do not exist as of 1940."

Interestingly for the so called "New Deal"! “Conditions and death rate at those works are to be studied separately. A member of public works would make $30, and pay $25 of taxes from this amount. So a person could make only $5 for a month of hard work in unsafe working conditions.

The conditions, under which people were working for food, could be compared to Stalin’s GULAG camp."

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 14 2022 12:21 utc | 23

The funeral video is (as others have noted) old. It was a reburial of a WWII, SS Galicia soldier.

The “this should be faster and more bloody” crowd is something. Very western in its impatience. So impatient that it fails to note that things are moving faster. Lisichansk was only two weeks ago and there are still mopping up operations inside the city. Telegram reports are now consistent about operational control over Seversk. Kraken is not only getting into shoot outs with other Ukrainian forces but disobeying orders and headed towards Kharkov instead of Kramatorsk. They’re running away, and without them holding the conscripts in place, panicked retreat becomes a lot more likely.

I’m sure it’s going slower than the Russian MoD would like too. But it will read much faster in the history books, like how people seem to think Poland fell in 3 days instead of 6 weeks or the idea that the US only needed a long weekend to get to Baghdad.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 14 2022 12:27 utc | 24

The Chief of Staff to Zelensky, Andriy Yermak too is Jewish.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 12:30 utc | 25

B was promising that up to 100000 were trapped and fixed in the Donbas cauldron and that the destruction of the Ukrainian army was assured.

The reality looks to be the Ukrainian forces have engaged in a very effective fighting withdrawal.

Posted by: Wobblie | Jul 14 2022 11:18 utc | 9
----------------------

correct, wobblie!

how dares B, the second in command of the Russian General Staff, not deliver on his promises?!?

SHOOT HIM!

beter yet, lock him in a room with ostro and submit to ostro's geostrategic musings. for two full hours...

Posted by: albagen | Jul 14 2022 12:35 utc | 26

Nitpick time: "around Mykolaiv (Nikolaev in Russian transliteration)"
It's the other way around. Niklaev obviously comes from Nicholas, and the city was founded by Russian empire with a Russian name. Miklaiv is the Ukrainian transliteration.

As for the dam up from Kherson, only a madman would try to destroy it. The flooding would be devastating, kill plenty of people, destroy even more buit up areas, and there's a bloody nuclear plant on the lakeshore; you destroy the dam, the lake is gone, and there's no cooling water available anymore; your plant is fucking useless for decades, assuming it can be safely turned off when coolant disappears.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 14 2022 12:35 utc | 27

The last time the situation for Ukraine looked this grim was July, 2014. The response from the Ukrainian side was the false flag downing of Malaysian flight MH17 on July 17, 2014.

We're exposed to a lot of fiction about million man (and woman) army offensive and various Wunderwaffe. What is more likely to occur based on past behavior is another false flag event.

Nothing the Ukraine side can do will alter the fact that both the initiative and escalation dominance belong to Russia.

Posted by: Sam Bullard | Jul 14 2022 12:37 utc | 28

@6 All that would have achieved is the decapitation of the Zelensky government and its replacement by a 100% unapologically-Banderite gang of thugs. Who would be in command of a still-functioning army.

This way is much better for the Russians: keep Zelensky "in power" while he watches his army be ground to a pulp.

Once that is over the Russians won't much care who is in power in Kiev, since whoever it is will be "ruling" without an army to back him.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jul 14 2022 12:44 utc | 29

Leaf no 4

I recently watched a film about those massacres (banned in ukraine) entitled: "hatred - murder of the innocent". A gruesome depiction of that time.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Jul 14 2022 12:44 utc | 30

The demented One had said its the honour of holocaust in Israel...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 12:46 utc | 31

Awesome military report!!

The Ukrainian side is losing hundreds of soldiers per day which leads to lots of funerals with questionable symbolics (vid).

It is high time for the Ukrainian and 'western' side to stop the war and to re-enter into negotiations with the Russian side.

The reality is that the Ukies will not be permitted to stop and negotiate. This is perfectly fine for Russia. The more Ukrainian soldiers killed or maimed, the less number of them to deal with afterwards. Plus, all these hard won territories will NOT be on the negotiating table. They will belong to either Russia or the newly freed republics. Everything is going according to plan.

Posted by: Sam Smith | Jul 14 2022 12:47 utc | 32

"An X means brigade (3,000-4,000 men), three vertical lines a regiment (1,000-1,500 men), two vertical lines a battalion (300-600 men) and so on."

If I counted correctly, according to that map with the NATO style symbols, that means there still are at least 65 thousand invading UkroNazionalist troops in those 2 defensive lines in the not-yet-liberated (40% territory) Donetsk Respublika.

Of those, how many are effective combat troops, and not just support or cannon fodder for trenches like the "territorial defense" civilians who were first introduced to a Kalashnikov in February of this year?

And how does b (and others) look at the possibility that Russia actually declares war against Ukraine, in order to use more troops and wepons to, not just liberate Novorussia but, also occupy other areas to the North and maybe even Kiev?

And could this be the reason why Russia has been so relatively passive about NATO escalating with more offensive weapons with longer range (like 300 Km missiles for HIMARS)?
So that a big attack happens against a Russia city, and then that event is used by the Kremlin to justify the official war declaration and general mobilization?

Or is this slow and steady grinding of cannon fodder "to the last Ukrainian" an essential part of the Russian strategy in order to, sooner or later, provoke the colapse of the Ukrainian regime under the weight of its own stupidity?
And then taking Odessa (and other areas South and East of Kiev) without a fight in the negotiations of the Peace Treaty (aka only slightly conditional surrender of Ukraine)?

And since Putin doesn't shut up about the New Global Order in a Multipolar World, is it essential that the conflict (and therefore the "crippling sanctions") lasts for at least one Winter, so that Europeans finally do something against the TRAITORS (aka USA/NATO vassals that are hurting European citizens) in a Sri Lanka style?

As a 2-decade long victim of €uro Zone stupidity (austerity and stagnation, wage cuts and more taxes, emigration and poverty), I really wish to see such Sri Lanka images at the €CB headquarters in Frankfurt. That would be a more than fair ending to this ideologically fanatical/extremist "elite" that called all Southern Europeans the "PIGS".

I already celebrated when I saw Germany finally having a deficit on their external account (it didn't happen earlier only thanks to €uro imbalances benefiting North/Core Europe at the expense of Southern/Periphery countries). And I'm going to enjoy every news about unemployment and freezing cold hitting the Germans (and others). The "frugals" deserve it all.

The "PIGS" send their regards.

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 14 2022 12:50 utc | 33

ostro | Jul 14 2022 12:46 utc | 31
As twitter noted.
He was still on the tarmac when he made his first gaffe.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 14 2022 12:59 utc | 34

@Wobble

"...Ukrainian forces have engaged in a very effective fighting withdrawal". Sure that, man. The withdrawal was effective, though often pretty unconventional. I saw pics/vids/reports of bold swimmers besides recreational gummi boats and people in robbed civilian clothing and cars. Some even went with raised hands, others on stretchers, while many took a vertical route through heavens gate. The fighting itself did not leave such an effective impression, however. - And please, allow an add-on: Most effective are the terrorist bombarments of cities east of the front line. This is how they conquer the hearts of the population they want to liberate. Likewise, this is VERY EFFECTIVE to replace the anti-war attitude among many international observers with a desire for them to become demilitarized the hard way.

Posted by: OttoE | Jul 14 2022 13:02 utc | 35

jr@22..I was mentioning yesterday how MOD reports on dead Ukies, but never wounded. Today's report is the first mention of injured.....for every dead soldier there are usually five to ten injured so there must be thousands of injured and not coming back to battle.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 14 2022 13:04 utc | 36

A typical American soldier these days 😏

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 13:07 utc | 37

Thanks for the detailed sitrep!

The intensity of daily strikes to UA forces has again increased in the last few days. I have a feeling we'll see this level on and off for the rest of the summer. I'm not sure that the Seversk-Bakhmut line would collapse in a week as some are saying, but let's hope.

Looking at that map, there are 5 airborne brigades (albeit some very beat up) North of Slavyansk too, holding that NW approach...

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 13:10 utc | 38

@17. Check out will Schryver's Twitter thread earlier this month. He argues that Putin's objective is not primarily to acquire territory, beyond that needed to consolidate the drfence of the separatist people's republic, but to demilitarise Ukraine, that is destroy, the Ukrainian army along with the NATO presence directing it. See:

https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1543692426333671425?t=R-YsF-rmy3rSxyHE0LkaSA&s=19

Excerpts:

'8/ It was a long and grinding campaign. Grant made numerous tactical errors and suffered inordinate casualties on multiple occasions. But his focus never varied from the objective: to destroy the enemy army. He sought every chance to engage it, and never let up once.

9/ This has been *precisely* the Russian mentality in Ukraine. Their objective, from the very beginning, as articulated by Putin in his epic speech of February 24, 2022, was to “demilitarize” Ukraine – to destroy its army.

18/ I remain thoroughly convinced the Russian objective was NEVER to “take Kiev”. I’ve heard all the arguments and rationalizations; I reject them. In my view, the objective was ALWAYS to destroy the AFU forces in the Donbass. And they have done so COMPREHENSIVELY.'

Posted by: ftmntf | Jul 14 2022 13:13 utc | 39

Carlos Marques | Jul 14 2022 12:50 utc | 33
"Kremlin to justify the official war declaration and general mobilization"

Why some think there's need for general mobilization?
They're using 10-15% of their regular armed forces. Most soldiers are from Donbass militia. Those very few combined troops have managed to eliminate 70k nazis and probably 3x more are wounded and can't nazi anymore.

The mistake is that they're not exterminating the Ukr military leaders, the government, the city mayors and so on and they're still not exploding the major roads and railways to Poland/Romania/Moldova. It's not like they're going to export anything to EU in the next 10 years, so why keep them working for nato?
I hope at tomorrow's meeting they'll vote for these issues. Until now it was Demilitarization stage but now it's Denazification time, that means the extermination of all nazis. If they don't do it the terrorist attacks will only increase and nato will eventually explode an NPP, it's 100% in their logic.

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 13:21 utc | 40

Apologies my previous comment was directed at comment 16 not 17.

Posted by: ftmntf | Jul 14 2022 13:29 utc | 41

Replying to Stephen #19
"Ultimately, I sense there will be a “Retreat from East of Suez” type moment at some point."
I agree. The US is over-extended not only in capitalist terms, but also in terms of its evolving zeitgeist. The pendulum is overdue to swing back after the long extrovert phas since WWII. I suspect this is part of Trump's attractiveness to the rustbelt.

Posted by: T Paine | Jul 14 2022 13:43 utc | 42

US MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed in Romania. US lost control and boom. Looking at the crash site on the map it appears to be about 150km from Ukr border

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 13:46 utc | 43

Ostro is a self hating jew

Posted by: Rjb1.5 | Jul 14 2022 14:05 utc | 44

https://t.co/Uy7YApxURu
https://t.co/oTJhv60WRj
is it me, or does it seem like the EU and Lithuania made over rail transit to and from Kaliningrad are just too good to be true? could be my anxiety talking, but when you read these articles it does seem like its all for PR and that these upcoming "modifications" are still gonna blockade Kaliningrad partially.

Posted by: mathew palmeri | Jul 14 2022 14:07 utc | 45

NATO escalated their war in Ukraine into a rear-guard action of their positions in the Maghreb and Levant. Perhaps also Taiwan.

The instigators of this proxy war must be comprehensively humiliated, made turn against each other and to fight amongst themselves. The era of consequence-free Western political leadership must come to a close. That won't happen by drawing a DMZ line across Europe.

The resolution of the conflict involves bringing participants like Victoria Nuland and her accomplices to trial. Without a proper reckoning the situation will remain a slow burning fire.

Winning on the battlefield is the easiest part of holding the people responsible to account.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 14 2022 14:12 utc | 46

Mariupol today...https://youtu.be/IMm2T3GZ_8o

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 14:13 utc | 47

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas resigns - statement.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/23124

Zelensky curse?

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 14 2022 14:16 utc | 48

Meanwhile, TTF natgas futures (continental EU benchmark) (both Dec-22 and Q4-2023) remain essentially at their all-time high points set a few days ago. Indicates lack of resolution on NS1-compressor-turbine and Kaliningrad.

This is despite apparently conciliatory language from the Western side on both issues. However, upon closer reading of the detailed statements, they signal only a desire for temporary cooling-off, and for the time being remain pretty clear about refuse a permanent walkback, although at least for the sake of diplomacy, they do not emphasize this detail.

The Canadian statement makes clear that there are no assurances about cooperating with future turbine service, and this is a one-time exemption. The EU/EC clarifications on Kaliningrad limit themselves to non-military rail traffic, still refuse to allow road traffic, and claim further to 'reserve the right' to place limitations on the volume of rail traffic to no more than 'typical' levels -- which clearly isn't going to do it if road traffic is removed.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 14:26 utc | 49

@48 Norwegian
Doesn't look like it. Press report says it's just a procedural formality to realize a rebalancing of rebalancing of the governing coalition / ministerial positions / or something like that, as there was a minority government before... The next PM will be the same as current PM.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 14:31 utc | 50

I am surprised that b mentioned 18 HIMAR units were sent by the US. As far as I can see on the Telegram channels and US media and RT, only 8 HIMAR units were sent with GMLRS ammo, range upto
92km (wiki). Any sources that confirm the numbers?

Posted by: DutchZ | Jul 14 2022 14:36 utc | 51

Been lurking for some time, but think I will join the discussion now. Nice post b.

Posted by: seydlitz89 | Jul 14 2022 14:46 utc | 52

ostro | Jul 14 2022 14:13 utc | 47

Mariupol today...

Ah yes, normalcy returns, and on top of that, not a mask in sight!

What a joy!

Posted by: john | Jul 14 2022 14:55 utc | 53

The Chief of Staff to Zelensky, Andriy Yermak too is Jewish.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 12:30 utc | 25

...and their boss Victoria Nuland, is Jewish as is her boss Anthony Blinken. I find it a great coincidence that while Nuland was on the sidelines during the Trump years, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine quieted down considerably.

It was only after Nuland's October 2021 visit to Moscow, that hostilities ramped up.

Theirry Meyssan's version of the visit is below. He says it is easily verified, but I have not seen it elsewhere.

https://www.voltairenet.org/article215849.html

And the larger multi-generational, some might say civilizational, conflict here, Russia declares war on the Straussians

Might I also suggest you use the term "Straussian" instead of Jew, as the vast majority of Jews have no interest in the geopolitical machinations of a small subset.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 14 2022 14:56 utc | 54

The conditions, under which people were working for food, could be compared to Stalin’s GULAG camp."

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 14 2022 12:21 utc | 23

There are many who can make credible arguments that much of the hardship of the 1930's era was not due only to severely unfortunate weather but also the collapse/Depression brought on by the predatory financial class. Similar arguments can be made about the collectivization impetus imposed from above in Ukraine along with the Big Ag class there dragging their feet in ways that benefited them over the vast majority of smaller farms. There are always arguments about everything.

Bottom line: in both Ukraine and US the widespread hardship and death was clearly due to bad leadership. Whether such leadership acted out of ineptitude or malice is always an open question, as is the case today with US-NATO axis. Ultimately it doesn't matter; insisting that the millions didn't die because of deliberate malice is not much of an excuse.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 14 2022 15:05 utc | 55

B was promising that up to 100000 were trapped and fixed in the Donbas cauldron and that the destruction of the Ukrainian army was assured.

The reality looks to be the Ukrainian forces have engaged in a very effective fighting withdrawal.

Posted by: Wobblie | Jul 14 2022 11:18 utc | 9

Do you have any good idea of how many have been killed, wounded and captured on the Ukie side? Am getting the impression that we are well into the 100,000 zone by now...

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 14 2022 15:07 utc | 56

In an ideal world the war would have been decided by bold strategic attacks, that would have sliced Ukraine into pieces. Instead the parties have elected to destroy Donbass brick by brick, with an enormous human cost.

Before the war special military operation started, I predicted that the 1st Guards Tank Army would advance from west of Belgorod to the Dnieper somewhere south of Poltava, bypassing Kharkov from the west. Instead, and to my surprise, that Russian forces pushed their way to Kiev.

This is what I wrote on February 19th:

RUSSIA IS READY FOR WAR - Petri Krohn, February 19, 2022

All the preparations for a major invasion of Ukraine have now been made. The last stage of preparations is done today, when Putin will personally practice pressing the nuclear "button".

The Russian attack or counter attack – if it is to come – may happen here. Russia has been offloading a huge number of main battle tanks at the railway station in Tomarovka, west of Belgorod and 27 km from the Ukrainian border. The tanks are then seen driving west along the road to Poltava. If the tanks are to take action, then the likely target is the Dnieper river, bypassing Kharkov from the west.

TicToc, or "TankToc" as it is now being called in Russia has tens of videos of the tanks leaving the Tomarovka railway station. I tried to search for Tomarovka on Google. Surprisingly the top results are about WWII. Two new books are among the top ten results. "From the Don to the Dnepr: Soviet Offensive Operations" by David M. Glantz from 2014 and "Retribution: The Soviet Reconquest of Central Ukraine, 1943" by Prit Buttar from 2019.

The graphic above is from Wikipedia. The red arrow under the "Belgorod" text is the road to Poltava. The tip of the arrow is where the tanks are now located.

I have no idea what, if anything, will happen next. I am however sure nothing will happen until Monday February 21st, when the Winter Olympics are over.

The operation to encircle Kiev was aborted in late March, after the Ukrainian negotiation team agreed to Russia's initial demands (recognition of Crimea and independence of Donbass oblasts). But the operation showed that Russia had the capability to attack deep into Ukrainian territory.

Russia had six strategic aims in the war. Three of them succeeded during the first two weeks.

1) Access to the Dnieper River north of Crimea, securing the North Crimean Canal
2) Land bridge to Crimea through Mariupol and Melitopol
3) Bridgehead on the western bank of the Dnieper River (Kherson)

Still to be achieved:

4) Land bridge to Transnistria
5) Access to the Dnieper River west of Kharkov
6) Access to the Dnieper River from Kherson, west of Dnipropetrovsk

The last three would define the borders of Novorossiya.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 14 2022 15:18 utc | 57

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 14:26 utc | 49
-----------
The turbine matter was just a pretext by the Russian side. It was sent before the beginning of the SMO in the Ukraine. The sanctions were also expected, much more than the "west" made. The enmity of the Baltics and Poland was also expected, and the eventual blockade on Kaliningrad by Lithuania too.

Russia let the EU to get into the panic mode even before the beginning of the SMO. Also, allowed the EU to shoot in the foot by declaring embargo on the Russian energy products. Then came the pay in rubles matter enhance the panic. The EU thought they might still get gas and fuel, even with "tough" sanctions. Russia let the EU/US/West to start the economic war against Russia. Russia let them speak about it, boast about it, and even threaten Russia with it. But, at the end, it appears that Russia was directing the whole (film) project!

Prices went up in the West, but not in Russia, or Belarus, or even in the newly liberated areas in former Ukraine. There's a looming acute energy problem in the unfriendlies in the EU. There's a looming very troublesome heating period in just five months. There maybe a chance that most factories in the Unfriendlies will have to be closed, making massive amount of people lose jobs.

Oh, the turbine was just a pretext. Who knows what kind of other technical problems energy sector would come up with! Remember the famous words "military-technical" means?

No one gives any guarantee that the electricity to the Baltics would not be cut this winter...or, their sea ports getting blocked...

The sanctions were illegal. So, Russia would decide, what actions of Russia might be legal or illegal.

The world had changed on 24th February 2022, and it won't come back to the former status quo.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 15:27 utc | 58

Beware of the 6th column, the one with the fake well-meaning-about-the-russian- success-reservations. The ''real'' reality is that ALL, friends and ''friends'' alike, we ALL agree, that it will be THE RUSSIANS, who will be, -at whatever time-, on the banks of the Dnieper river...

Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Jul 14 2022 15:32 utc | 59

@Petri Krohn | Jul 14 2022 15:18 utc | 57

If they stop at Dnieper nothing will prevent nato and their local terrorists from shooting over the new border with anything they can get from Poland, Romania and Moldova. As long as the nato government in Ukr and the rest of the local puppets are alive terrorism will continue uninterrupted, in the same way it does since 2014.

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 15:41 utc | 60

@Scorpion,

No confirmation yet, but Vladimir Novikov - Leader of Zaporozhye militia, commander of 'Troy' detachment (DPR, So RU bias) reported that he had info that the AFU had presented in a briefing paper the figure of 176,000 kia + wounded too badly to return + captured + deserted/missing, from AFU, national guard, internal affairs, and border patrol (not territorial defense). up until Jul 11 to Zelensky.

Obviously not a trustable single data point, but we see. If we include desertions, and all services (not just AFU), any calculation I can make is over 100k that cannot return to combat.

Posted by: dask | Jul 14 2022 15:50 utc | 61

@58 ostro

Quibble with the "sanctions were also expected, much more than the west made" -- seizure of bank deposits and expulsion from western banking were considered the "nuclear option" in terms of economic warfare, were used immediately - which I think a lot of people found just as surprising as the fact that RF had prepared for it pretty well.

Also everyone worldwide is going to experience economic hardship in different ways because of this. While RF will be obviously fine for energy, materials, agriculture, and military goods, there are still going to be a lot of affected industries which will take a few years to substitute specialty equipment, that impacts civilian manufacturing. But that's not fundamentally new. We all know much of the last 100 years was like that. And this time Chinese companies are eager to get a foot in the door into those markets anyway, and have all the advantages the US once had.

As for the turbine - sure, it is a pretext. Maybe I'd say it is symbolic. It's symbolic of the fact that the circa-2010 generation of natgas production and transport infrastructure was contracted out to German firms which have since merged to become multinationals. And that infrastructure still needs a either a commitment for maintenance from its manufacturers, or else the issue of its replacement must arise, and the question of how the customer can share the costs of replacement. So that's why I was struck by Canada refusing to commit to future maintenance as a matter of principle, and instead insisting to make a point that it is a "one time thing". This would, or should IMO, still result in gas shutdown. I think the market reaction, i.e. little relief in the 2023-contract pricing upon the latest announcement in the last 48 hours, makes sense with this interpretation.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 15:53 utc | 62

"Trudeau defends two-year deal to repair Russian pipeline turbines despite sanctions on Moscow"

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 14 2022 15:58 utc | 63

All the “cauldrons” have accomplished are tactile victories. B was promising that up to 100000 were trapped and fixed in the Donbas cauldron and that the destruction of the Ukrainian army was assured.

The reality looks to be the Ukrainian forces have engaged in a very effective fighting withdrawal.

Posted by: Wobblie | Jul 14 2022 11:18 utc | 9

The other more plausible explanation is that the estimated 100,000 number was a wild exaggeration. Even if you include all the behind the lines staff, cooks, medics, transport, etc. that is a small city worth of people.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 14 2022 16:01 utc | 64

So the Kallas lady has resigned? As I recall she was the one who thought she had a part in Mean Girls - the one who said that if no one spoke to Putin he’d be hurt enough to withdraw from the Ukraine. To my mind maybe the silliest comment of the year.

Posted by: SeaneenDepp | Jul 14 2022 16:06 utc | 65

@DutchZ

I am surprised that b mentioned 18 HIMAR units were sent by the US. As far as I can see on the Telegram channels and US media and RT, only 8 HIMAR units were sent with GMLRS ammo, range upto 92km (wiki).

My mistake. The latest gift Biden promised to Ukraine included another 4 for a total of 12 plus the systems of unknown quantity Germany and Britain have promised to send.

Posted by: b | Jul 14 2022 16:06 utc | 66

Interesting read

Information obtained during the special operation in Ukraine shows that US tests of dangerous diseases were conducted on Ukrainian servicemen, who were engaged as volunteers in experiments to assess the tolerability of dangerous diseases. The state of health of Ukrainian servicemen who have voluntarily laid down their arms also testifies to this: 33% of those surveyed had had hepatitis A, more than 4% had fever with renal syndrome and 20% had West Nile fever.

These figures are well above the statistical average. The Russian defense ministry also noted that highly active neuromodulators had been tested on vulnerable Ukrainian citizens, causing irreversible damage to the central nervous system.


US Activities in Ukraine are a Smoke Screen for Clearly Criminal Bioresearch

Posted by: Down South | Jul 14 2022 16:08 utc | 67

"Trudeau defends two-year deal to repair Russian pipeline turbines despite sanctions on Moscow"

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 14 2022 15:58 utc | 63

"Trudeau has 'Realpolitik' explained to him in words containing no more than 2 syllables." FIFY

Interesting that the US also signed off on the turbine return. Apparently Trudeau listens to "his master's voice".

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 14 2022 16:09 utc | 68

@38 myself

I'm not sure that the Seversk-Bakhmut line would collapse in a week as some are saying, but let's hope.

Well hey, looks like UA forces have vacated Seversk already! Soledar will not be long then either...

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 16:15 utc | 69

As a Telegram junkie I encountered the following claims/reports that seemed interesting. Not everything may be correct but it is worth watching.

- someone expected that the battle for Slavyansk will be easy but that for Kramatorsk hard. It has something to do with geography that would make Slavyansk harder to defend.
- after the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line the Russians may get it easier. Eastern Ukraine contains many rivers and woods what makes it easy to defend and hard to conquer. Central Ukraine is more open plains.
- Ukraine has concentrated a lot of troops in the Odessa-Nikolayev region. They are very afraid that Russia will conquer the whole coast. It may be that all those attacks towards Kherson are meant to keep those troops busy. A lot of publicity was dedicated to their offensives and their alleged conquests. But until now they achieved nothing.
- Russia has made informal claims (a.o. by announcing independence referendums) to four Ukrainian provinces: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. If they conquer the whole of Donetsk the main missing part will be the city of Zaporizhia.
- some alleged Himars attacks may not be Himars after all but a new tactic where Russian air defenses are first exhausted with rather light artillery and then - while the Russian air defense is reloading a heavy Tochka-U is sent
- access to Kaliningrad via Lithuania remains an issue. The EU has ordained that the sanctions apply only to trucks and not to rail transport. But even rail transport should be subject to inspections and transport of military equipment and materials with double use is forbidden. Russia is not happy.

Posted by: Wim | Jul 14 2022 16:16 utc | 70

@70 Wim
Slavyansk can be approached from multiple sides, but then that whole arc of urban sprawl is a daunting object, provided the defenders are willing to fight hard for it. Not clear to what degree that will still be the case by then. A lot of those VSU airborne brigades (ie their top grade of fighting men) will be severely reduced anyway before the urban cluster can be entered.

On the other hand, there is not going to be another comparable defensive line after that for UA, so the "leadership" in Kiev (or wherever) must want to at least ensure that it holds until the fall.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 16:29 utc | 71

In “Russia declares war on the Straussians,” Thierry Meyssan claims,
“The Straussians were removed from power during Bill Clinton’s term.”
Please note that from 1993 to 1996, Victoria Nuland served as chief of staff to Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and later as deputy director for former Soviet Union affairs.

Posted by: giotto | Jul 14 2022 16:37 utc | 72

"Here is a civil car with Albanian number plates loaded with British and U.S. anti-tanks missile. The Ukrainian military has admitted that such transfers are happening. We can only guess where those weapons will end up."

Indeed, though we can also wish where they will end up too: Brussels, London and Washington.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 14 2022 16:42 utc | 73

Posted by: Abe | Jul 14 2022 10:49 utc |


But, in eyes of wehrmacht all Slavs looked the same (inferior), so nazi germany supposedly squandered that possibility.

The flip side is that the Ukranians were fine with joining the SS if it meant killing Poles and Jews and Russian civilians, but as soon as the Germans transfered them to the Western front, they promptly murdered their German officers and defected to the French Resistance.


Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Jul 14 2022 16:43 utc | 74

Strapovka and Novaya Kamenkawere captured with significant nazi losses. Seversk is almost done, if not already
We might see again >1k nazis reported tomorrow.

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 16:44 utc | 75

Obviously not a trustable single data point, but we see. If we include desertions, and all services (not just AFU), any calculation I can make is over 100k that cannot return to combat.

Posted by: dask | Jul 14 2022 15:50 utc | 61

Thank you. Yes, 100K does seem a reasonable ballpark KIA figure. Usually wounded is 3 times that, no? If most of the infantry brigades are National Guard as I believe b stated above then they must be getting close to breaking point. Poor saps.

Problem is: US needs this thing to go at least into the mid-term election (running on loyalty in wartime) unless there is a plan to engineer a 'victorious' cease-fire in early October or some such, thereby giving the Dems a chance to hold the Senate to prevent his remaining lame duck tenure from being entirely stymied (and fortunately sparing Germany national shut-down). But if no war, they will go back to plague no doubt - lots of slimy options.

Russia and China will be quite happy if this goes on for another few years. The longer the sanctions war continues the more it helps the recruitment drive for their new Eurasian world order.

Time will tell.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 14 2022 16:50 utc | 76

Italy: Draghi resigns
https://t.me/sputnik/8657

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 14 2022 16:53 utc | 77

Replying to Arthurdent 18.

But for the Barbarossa pre-emption, the Russians would have been on the Atlantic coast in 1942.

Posted by: quasi_verbatim | Jul 14 2022 16:55 utc | 78

Posted by: ptb | Jul 14 2022 15:53 utc | 62
----------

The (illegal) sanctions are elements of economic war by the US/EU/West, so Russia has a right to counter them in the same economic aspect. So, Russia makes it much harder for the US/EU/West to buy the energy products, much expensive to buy. Russia makes it hard for the US/EU/West to continue with their factories, food production etc. Russia makes the demented One to go beg MbS. It is Putinfalation in the US today. It was intended, only the US/EU/West didn't fathom that -- they were too arrogant.

Qatar, for example, is a US preferred partner, but it is still a Muslim country. Qatar wants 20 year buying agreement from the EU, which the EU can't give with its "green" ideology. Things are getting tough with the collective West, slowly, but surely.

Canada is nothing militarily to Russia, if push comes to shove. It doesn't need to be conquered, but can be destroyed. It's population is pretty lame, quite used to an easy lazy life to go to war.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 16:57 utc | 79

@Scorpion | Jul 14 2022 16:50 utc | 76

Russia might not want to extend it (not by much anyway), too many civilians will be killed by nato shooting at cities in revenge. I don't think they lie when they say it can end tomorrow is Ukr signs the papers today. Today Volodin said Ukr will lose statehood if they don't negotiate peace.
The head of Pfizer said that investors want to see increased profits this year and they have to keep "growing". There's no other way of doing that unless you force all EU and all other US puppet countries to buy exclusively Pfizer. Ursula alone can buy EU_population x 3 doses

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 17:03 utc | 80

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1547613797648437263
"President Vucic:"I know what awaits us. As soon as Putin has done his work in Seversk,Bakhmut and Soledar,after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka,he will make a proposal.And if they [the West] do not accept it,all hell will break loose "."

Hudson believes war or wars will continue for the next 20 to 30 years. I'm not sure if he means Russia/China multi polar world vs US/UK hybrid was or simply ongoing turbulence.
I don't think Putin intends to allow US to keep making trouble for that long. It will be interesting to see if Vucic is correct.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 14 2022 17:04 utc | 81

Looks like Donetsk, Odessa, and Kharkiv will get taken as RUS_Alliance SpearHead into "What used to be Central UKR".

Pretty much the Case. With near absolute Air Superiority, Missiles, Close Air Support, Army Gunships, and Barrel/Missile Artillery - All Unrelenting as Troops+Gear Rotate for R&R&Repairs and Missiles/Ammo/Gear Roll Out of Plants - it will be a matter of time until Mass Desertions/Retreats/Surrenders occur Daily.

Why Die when the Tribal Zelenskyy+Oligarchs will probably live "comfortably" for the rest of their Lives?

I'll repeat the following:
Zelenskyy will probably flee to POL to run an Insurgency, then return to the Rump Kiev-Lvov after CSTO_PKOps have left if K-L haven't been absorbed by POL and the Bandera-Nazi remain friendly.

NATO/EU the H8 Hegemony (Greater_ISR/Diaspora and VassalG7) will sing Pyrrhic Victory Songs of "Banning RUS from Europe" while their Collective Industrial Operations falter.

RUS+CHN/SCO/SilkRoad/BRICS/RECEP? Far better off with Inexpensive RUS Energy...

Posted by: IronForge | Jul 14 2022 17:07 utc | 82

thanks b...

i can't see the west stopping now.....

@ Peter AU1 | Jul 14 2022 17:04 utc | 81

i think hudson is right in this regard.. think of syria... is it over? no... and have the meddlers left? no.... so - giving it another 20 years is reasonable... the same deal is probably going to happen here in ukraine....

Posted by: james | Jul 14 2022 17:10 utc | 83

@Scorpion

"Thank you. Yes, 100K does seem a reasonable ballpark KIA figure. Usually wounded is 3 times that, no? If most of the infantry brigades are National Guard as I believe b stated above then they must be getting close to breaking point. Poor saps. "

The 176k figure was the alleged presentation of the sum of those categories and only represents "can not return to combat" (sorry if I didn't write in the brackets correctly). POWs are tallied between 15-20k, so let's say 150K non- POWs. Desertions is the big variable that I have zero insight to. But if desertions were ~= POWs then we are talking 120k KIA or wounded .. which would be 25-35k dead, and 85-95k out of action from wounds, if that 3-1 heuristic holds up. Still not a pretty tally, and as someone who still has family in both West and East (a part that is now Russian) Ukraine, it's a painful and stupid thing, and terrible loss.

Posted by: dask | Jul 14 2022 17:24 utc | 84

The (war) SMO will be over when The United States breaks down to the Divided States. In time, the richer American states won't want to subsidise the poorer states. The poorer states will become even more poor longer the SMO in the Ukraine goes on.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 14 2022 17:27 utc | 85

@James (83)

Possibly not. Syria is next door to Israel and far from Russia, not to mention, fwiw, Russia had been seeking a good relationship with Israel for a while (things obviously had changed a lot in the past half a year). It is not inconceivable that Russia wanted to leave some leeway for Israel's benefit, especially since Syria is of fairly limited strategic import to Russia. Ukraine is not only next to Russia, but also has a lot of other (historical, economic, social, etc) linkages, especially in the Russophone and mixed language regions. No good reason that Russia would let things simmer for too long if it could help it. This does make gauging what the endgame might look like complicated, though.

Posted by: hk | Jul 14 2022 17:29 utc | 86

In Syria I don't know, but 20 more years of nato in Ukr won't happen. War in Poland, Romania or Finland is possible but more useful is to bring EU to 3rd world level with the "help" of US. Soon we'll talk about European refugees.

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 17:30 utc | 87

thank you so much b. overwhelming appreciation.

wunderwaffe du jour

some of these German terms, i love it!

Posted by: annie | Jul 14 2022 17:31 utc | 88


Re Nazi funeral: curiously, there are some analysis that during WW2 nazis had a lot of support in Ukraine initially during the war, and could have easily recruited far larger number of Ukies against Red Army. But, in eyes of wehrmacht all Slavs looked the same (inferior), so nazi germany supposedly squandered that possibility.

Posted by: Abe | Jul 14 2022 10:49 utc | 1

* * *

Posted by: Abe | Jul 14 2022 10:49 utc | 1

Correct. Stalin didn't help by starving 3 million Ukranians during the 1930s.

Posted by: IvanTheNotSoTerrible | Jul 14 2022 10:55 utc | 2


This is just an excuse and propoganda argument.

Golodomor (communist mismanagment created famine) mostly affected southern regions of Ukraine and southern Russia - mayor food producing areas.
Golodomor was not present in the Ivano-Frankovsk, Lviv (Western Ukraine) what at the time were part of Poland. The poles treated ukrainians there not so nice, like second class people. In the western region ukrainians joined nazis. Bandera UPA-Unso etc origibated in Western Ukrainian regions which was part of Poland not Soviet Union.

Ukrainian nazis commited some terrible atrocities against poles. (Of corse jews and "muscowites", too)

After the WW2 Stalin had given western Ukrainian regions to the Ukraine. (At the time there were 'population transfers' - ethnical cleaning of poles, ukrainians, belorussians in mixed borderland regions)

Posted by: Alef | Jul 14 2022 17:33 utc | 89

Why are Draghi and Kallas resigning? Anyone else today (except BoJo who finally got the memo)?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 14 2022 17:35 utc | 90

Here is a civil car with Albanian number plates loaded with British and U.S. anti-tanks missile.

Whilst the prevailing view here is that the far-right across Europe will end up with these weapons, them already being in the Balkans suggests the existing customer base for those dealers who traded in the weapons left over from the Balkan wars will get them. Namely gangs from the Albanian diaspora and others like the Bataclan killers. Malmo became the grenade attack capital of the world due to it's large Albanian diaspora whose gangs got hold of old Balkan war weapons through contacts in the old country as well as other gangs who bought them off them.

Also something very interesting to me. While much has been made of the UK and Poland training up large numbers of basically volunteers and conscripts with no prior military experience, the question is begged as to where the officers are going to come from.

Well the US has kindly taken on that burden all by itself. It seems like all the senior officers and even most of the junior ones are being trained in Kansas. CIA is getting it's pick of the litter it seems.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62001336

The US gets a military coup option now in terms of how it wants to play this. The wipe out of the standing Ukrainian army might be more useful to the US than if it had stayed intact it seems. Ukraine can become a new Egypt.

Posted by: Altai | Jul 14 2022 17:35 utc | 91

The problems the Russians had with the Seversky Donetsk, among others, show the significant difference between a river and a railroad as a physical obstacle. Rail is an obstacle to some extent and to some degree the fact that it creates more often than not chokepoints within the road system has a larger impact.
Your lines were in broad strokes correct, although you have forgotten one.
the first line is along the Bakhmuta River (Siversk - Bakhmut - Zaltseve), with rail semi parallel, quite some urban development. The Bakhmuta is +- 5 meters wide.
The second line, you've forgotten.
From Raihorodok, there's a canal through Chasiv Yar to Pivnichine, with a road on the Ukranian side. Altough it lacks the built-up areas, it does have often more dense vegetation in parallel. It's a weaker line, but one that can be very useful to cause casualties and damage to an opponent.
The third line is along the Torets river (which ends 20 to 30 meters wide and 3 meters deep), from Raihorodok to New York. A rail in parallel and to a high degree flanked by urbanisation.

The question is do the Russians have enough "boots on the ground".

Because if they do, there's no need to cross either of those three lines.
They had already broken through the more fortified lines at New York, same goes for the area north of Sloviansk, where the heavily wooded area's is costing the Russians deerly at this moment (... Dovhenke).

If they can muster enough btg's they can move west of the ponds to Bylbasivka in the North, from the Izium-axis.
And from the south along the h-20 => Stepanivka => Raiske => Andriivka => Serhiivka => oleksandrivka.

Meaning, just behind the third line, through open country, avoiding any of the cities.

Now the original plan to move from Izium over Bavinkove did also fail due to a lack of manpower, ...

It does take a smaller river crossing, the Kazennyi Torets, but it avoids, to a very large degree urban fighting, wooden area's and rail. It's ideal tank and artillery terrain

Posted by: qqtf | Jul 14 2022 17:37 utc | 92

The US Embassy in Ukraine urged Americans to leave Ukraine immediately.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/23161

They expect something

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 14 2022 17:43 utc | 93

Jacob Dreizin a week ago:

"Russia will take Odessa (because it’s a Russian city and has suffered long enough under forced Ukrainization and a form of military occupation) but by that point, you won’t care because you’ll have bigger problems. That’s why I won’t cover the war, per se, any more on this blog."

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 14 2022 17:44 utc | 94

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 14 2022 17:43 utc | 93

Maybe a Russian declaration of war by Duma tomorrow

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 14 2022 17:46 utc | 95

The US gets a military coup option now in terms of how it wants to play this. The wipe out of the standing Ukrainian army might be more useful to the US than if it had stayed intact it seems. Ukraine can become a new Egypt.

Posted by: Altai | Jul 14 2022 17:35 utc | 91

Considering the investment to build the Ukrainian army, "the West" does seem remarkable eager to throw it away again.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 14 2022 17:46 utc | 96

Russia might not want to extend it (not by much anyway), too many civilians will be killed by nato shooting at cities in revenge. I don't think they lie when they say it can end tomorrow is Ukr signs the papers today. Today Volodin said Ukr will lose statehood if they don't negotiate peace.

Posted by: rk | Jul 14 2022 17:03 utc | 80

I wonder if the latter is the consummation devoutly wished by RF at this point. Why negotiate with proven deceivers? Better if they are out of the picture. So keep applying pressure and let them turn inward to effect needed housekeeping. And this refers to both Ukraine per se and EU-US-NATO members.

Extension: no matter where they draw the line, those on the other side of it can become belligerents again and in a way they are back to Square One albeit there will be more time-distance quotient for any missiles directed at Moscow (leaving aside those sent from space or via Baltic Sea or via North Pole zone submarine).

Bozo is out. Droghi resigned this morning. Scholz looking wobbly. US has gone beyond surreal - Dali wouldn't be able to handle it. Macron under pressure. Many more fractures emerging.

Hmmm, wonder if one side is replying in kind to all those nasty color revolutions???

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 14 2022 17:47 utc | 97

Norwegian @ 93 posted it first. This is big. Most Americans in Ukraine are there for war work. No Americans, no war. Phoning it in from Langley not quite the same

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 14 2022 17:51 utc | 98

Image from Pepe's channel:

https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/4094

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 14 2022 17:52 utc | 99

Warning from Serbia about what's next:

"Serbian President Vucic: “I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin has done his work in Seversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, he will come up with a proposal. And if they [the West] don’t accept it, – and they won’t – all hell will break loose.”"

Also via Pepe's telegram.

We'll soon see I guess...

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 14 2022 17:58 utc | 100

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