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July 30, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-117
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The west has the solution for the freedom of western Ukraine:
https://multipolarista.com/2022/07/28/west-neoliberal-recovery-conference/
West prepares to plunder post-war Ukraine with neoliberal shock therapy: privatization, deregulation, slashing worker protections
Western governments and corporations met in Switzerland to plan harsh neoliberal economic policies to impose on post-war Ukraine, calling to cut labor laws, “open markets,” drop tariffs, deregulate industries, and “sell state-owned enterprises to private investors.”
On July 4 and 5, 2022, top officials from the US, EU, Britain, Japan, and South Korea met in Switzerland for a so-called “Ukraine Recovery Conference.” There, they planned Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and performatively announced aid commitments – while salivating over a bonanza of potential contracts.
New NATO candidates Finland and Sweden committed to assure reconstruction in Lugansk, roughly 48 hours after Russia and separatist forces announced the region had fallen fully under their control.
But the Ukraine Recovery Conference was not new. It had been renamed to save the expense of a new acronym. In the previous five years, the group and its annual meetings were instead referred to as the “Ukraine Reform Conference” (URC).
The URC’s agenda was explicitly focused on imposing political changes on the country – namely, “strengthening the market economy“, “decentralization, privatization, reform of state-owned enterprises, land reform, state administration reform,” and “Euro-Atlantic integration.”
So I guess all those advocating for Russia to pull up after just the liberation of the two eastern oblasts can rest easy.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 8:02 utc | 1
Ukrainian weapons systems destroyed¹ by week (chart)
Week Air Hel UAV SAMS AFV MRL Art Veh
Feb 24 – Mar 2 62 ² 53 39 606 67 227 405 Mar 3 – Mar 9 35 ² 54 102 380 40 141 344 Mar 10 – Mar 16 14 13 65 29 393 26 146 419 Mar 17 – Mar 23 1 2 85 32 193 27 119 211 Mar 24 – Mar 30 12 5 84 14 243 35 129 310 Mar 31 – Apr 6 1 18 75 11 188 25 107 213 Apr 7 – Apr 13 6 9 32 18 176 28 75 186 Apr 14 – Apr 20 9 2 63 9 231 14 102 171 Apr 21 – Apr 27 2 5 103 22 213 37 100 172 Apr 28 – May 4 7 1 112 12 211 26 160 215 May 5 – May 11 15 13 95 15 179 39 165 178 May 12 – May 18 8 0 121 10 145 31 91 202 May 19 – May 25 7 2 77 10 108 38 120 164 May 26 – Jun 1 7 2 65 4 107 27 70 160 Jun 2 – Jun 8 7 1 79 9 98 33 82 162 Jun 9 – Jun 15 11 1 55 4 98 33 134 135 Jun 16 – Jun 22 7 1 111 9 181 121 120 171 Jun 23 – Jun 29 13 2 71 4 109 51 971³ 98 Jun 30 – Jul 6 10 3 79 0 76 26 43 148 Jul 7 – Jul 13 15 0 55 1 115 20 43 228 Jul 14 – Jul 20 11 7 43 2 85 18 29 121 Jul 21 – Jul 27 0 1 48 3 37 2 33 102
Legend:
Air Aircraft Hel Helicopters UAV Unmanned aerial vehicles SAMS Surface-to-air missile systems AFV Armoured fighting vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs, etc.) MRL Multiple rocket launchers Art Field artillery pieces and mortars⁴ Veh Special military vehicles (non-armoured vehicles)
¹ I think that by “destroyed” Russian MoD means “hit”: some systems are truly destroyed, while others are only damaged and re-enter service after repairs.
² The total number of helicopters destroyed during the first two weeks (February 24 – March 9) is 57. Separate data for each week is not available.
³ According to Russian MoD data, Russian forces have destroyed 914 field artillery pieces and mortars from the morning of June 23 to the morning of June 24. What I think happened here is that somebody was supposed to input “14” into the spreadsheet, but instead input “914”, and the higher-ups are either asleep at the wheel and haven’t even noticed the mistake or too proud to admit it and correct the totals.
⁴ It’s unclear whether self-propelled artillery is included in “AFV” or “Art”. I think it’s in “AFV”.
(Compiled from Russian MoD daily briefings. July 28 briefing is missing from the website, but available on Telegram.)
Posted by: S | Jul 30 2022 8:16 utc | 2
S | Jul 30 2022 8:16 utc | 2
copy/paste from Russian MoD because you have a daily post quota but ran out of thoughts today?
Posted by: rk | Jul 30 2022 8:22 utc | 3
@uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 8:02 utc | 1
That conference is nothing more than propaganda. For the people to belive Russia will surely lose and they have big plans for Ukr etc.
Even the topics aren’t special, everything listed there was used in the 90s in all countries in Eastern Europe. Each step completed >20 years ago.
There are countries in EE where public utilites are not state owned. Gas, water, electricity, even garbage. And there are no laws to protect from abuse. For example the water company can perform tests on themselves, no 3rd party can verify tests, by law. People get brown water as drinking water and the company says our internal tests are fine, get lost.
The detailed cost of gas and electricity isn’t public. People get an invoice with a total amount but it’s impossible to estimate the cost based on KW they use monthly. It’s by design so you can’t save electricity, you don’t have a detailed cost per kw, how much is transport tax and so on. The state taxes change monthly so you can’t calculate them.
Garbage collecting companies burn it at the edge of cities. UK sends large amounts of garbage to be burned in EE and large amounts of used refrigerators to be buried somewhere in the ground
Posted by: rk | Jul 30 2022 8:51 utc | 5
Lez #6
The Ukraine as a functioning state is finished. Its form will be decided by the winner – Russia, fielding “the world’s finest fighting force”, to borrow that overused Washington phrase.
Well said and I would add that Ukraine had to wait its turn until that other dis-functioning state – the usa – was able to come first. The fallout from this debacle for the west is certainly providing us all with excellent popcorn time.
I wonder if the usa slide from Biden to Trump will generate sufficient distraction to help us forget the pure evil at the core of these two ignoramus?
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:14 utc | 6
I spotted a Russian video today on the collection of the artillery shell fragments that rained down on the azov prisoners.
HIMARS.
Reliable and accurate kit and all supplied with trained US personnel to get the targeting spot on. These helpful mercenaries sure can do war crimes, in case we could ever forget.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:18 utc | 7
Ben Norton is yarning up with Katie Halper how the US special ops commandos and cia war criminals are up to their scrotums in the Uke fight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPWghkMGKX8
What is ths CIA and what American special ops commandos doing in Ukraine? Journalist Ben Norton explains.
Ben Norton is a journalist, the editor of Multipolarista (https://multipolarista.com/) and a former editor at The Grayzone.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:23 utc | 8
Philip Giraldi opines thoughtfully: The All American Lie Factory.
[This article is derived from a speech I made at the July 23rd Peace and Freedom Rally in Kingston New York]
There are some things that I believe to be true about the anarchy that purports to be US foreign policy. First, and most important, I do not believe that any voter cast a ballot for Joe Biden because he or she wanted him to relentlessly pursue a needless conflict with Russia that could easily escalate into a nuclear war with unimaginable consequences for all parties. Biden has recently declared that the US will support Ukraine “until we win” and, as there are already tens of billions of dollars of weapons going to Ukraine plus American “advisers” on the ground, it constitutes a scenario in which American and Russian soldiers will soon likely be shooting at each other. The President of Serbia and columnists like Pat Buchanan and Tulsi Gabbard believe that we are already de facto in World War 3 and one has to wonder how the White House is getting away with ignoring the War Powers mandates in the US Constitution.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:33 utc | 9
Prisoner swap.
https://www.rt.com/news/559879-russia-swap-prisoners-us/
Russia has asked the US to add Vadim Krasikov, convicted for murder in Berlin last year. Clever.
A move aimed at creating more friction among allies and testing strained friendships?
Posted by: Calvin Gross | Jul 30 2022 9:42 utc | 10
Michael Hudson takes a bead on US ‘diplomacy’.
American Diplomacy as a Tragic Drama
It is an excellent report with notations.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:45 utc | 11
Tungsten,
that we are already in WW3 is what concerns me the most.
I see not the slightest hint that the war party fathoms where they are driving this. All I see from the war party is endless escalation. I not quite at the digging a backyard bunker stage, but certainly laying in modest stores of imported items. Plus got the home garden a little cranked up this year.
Posted by: exile | Jul 30 2022 9:49 utc | 12
Calvin Cross #11
I spotted this paragraph in that report:
Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the US National Security Council, told CNN that “holding two wrongfully detained Americans hostage for the release of a Russian assassin in a third country’s custody is not a serious counteroffer.” She added that a request to trade Krasikov would be “a bad faith attempt to avoid the deal on the table that Russia should take.”
Ahem, I think of Julian Assange wrongfully detained at the mendacity of the US running dogs and their scabby puppet englander courts.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:51 utc | 13
exile #13
Ditto, get the food trees growing where possible. We are definitely at risk from these warmongers no matter where or at what age.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:53 utc | 15
A move aimed at creating more friction among allies and testing strained friendships?
Posted by: Calvin Gross | Jul 30 2022 9:42 utc | 11
I would wonder why they choose this moment to offer this deal, and want to know a bit more before I agree to anything. So maybe just a way to keep the conversation going.
And I do wonder, the Blinken people I’ve seen seem kind of fixated on it. “The ought to take this deal.”
It is always odd when people who have been ranting at you suddenly ask if you want to buy something.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 30 2022 10:06 utc | 16
Posted by: exile | Jul 30 2022 9:49 utc | 13
i really don’t know what to do, living in a large city. i think it would be best to be away from large cities, someplace with a well drawing from an uncontaminated water supply, and arable land, but there may be a lot of competition (perhaps violent competition) for such by the time things start hitting the fan hard and fast.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 10:13 utc | 17
@ Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:51 utc | 14
I think we both know expecting anything different from current US/Western leadership at this point is a waste of our time. The only good news is they will all soon be replaced.
Sadly for Assange, he is not backed by a Government worthy of his integrity and achievements, though a small number of MP’s recently speaking out for him in Canberra and a Labour Gov’t does give some small hope of a future deal of sorts:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7837410/advocates-for-assange-gather-in-canberra/
As for the current swap, Russia will just drag it out for a long as they want to and use it to its advantage, they are just toying with these clowns, expect more humiliation in the form of Lavrov, Peskov and Zacharova venom.
Posted by: Calvin Gross | Jul 30 2022 10:15 utc | 18
@ Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:18 utc | 8
Saw it too, though assuming it was filmed to confirm the use of HIMARS rockets, one wonders why the crime scene was tampered with and the pieces all laid out on a bench, instead of leaving it all in situ and wait for OSCE, the BBC, Reuters journos et al, to ‘independently’ verify the evidence, and leave no room for Uki propagandists to obfuscate the seemingly obvious?
I found the US non-reaction so far as the most convincing supporting evidence that this was indeed a Ukrainian attack personally. When the US doesn’t jump at the opportunity to accuse Russia of war crimes, you know they know for certain they have no leg to stand on.
Posted by: Chiringuito | Jul 30 2022 10:27 utc | 19
Posted by: Chiringuito | Jul 30 2022 10:27 utc | 20
you seem to regard the BBC, OSCE, Reuters etc. as some kind of independent entities, but that is not true.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 10:37 utc | 20
@ Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 10:37 utc | 21
then you missed my sarcastic use of ‘…’
Posted by: Chiringuito | Jul 30 2022 10:42 utc | 21
The Iran nuclear deal isn’t on track to being revived. Does anyone else think there’s probably going to be a major war between US/Israel and Iran by the end of 2024?
How will Russia act in supporting Iran?
How much more risk is Israel exposed to in a major war because of Russian support for Iran?
Why aren’t the Middle East experts in Washington talking about the risk of major war?
These are all questions I think need a lot more attention.
Posted by: ohhy | Jul 30 2022 10:44 utc | 22
“Es mag gefährlich sein, Amerikas Feind zu sein, aber Amerikas Freund zu sein, ist tödlich.”
(Henry Kissinger)
Forgive me if it is a repost, but I found a german translation of the analysis of Michael Hudson and posted in on my facebook profile. To all german barflies. I think Hudson is absolutely right, as he gives the answer to the question: what is it, that makes the US hate Russia and China as if it still were “Kommunist” States?
My summary in english:
The core of Hudson’s thinking is that the USA differs from other capitalist nations in that it radically subjects all areas of life to private enrichment without any regard for public interests, ultimately even state interests: education, health, insurance, transport, supply , infrastructure, housing, agriculture.
With the accompanying rise of cost for the things of normal life, this society is not only undermining its social cohesion, but also its industrial base and agriculture. The financial, energy and military sectors are enriched at the expense of the rest of US society – which only works well as long as the US can buy what it needs anywhere in the world with its dollar, dominate the markets there and have direct access on foreign resources.
This, in turn, does not please countries like Russia and China. They don’t even want to give control of their companies and wealth to local corporations, let alone American corporations. And they are able to fight back. That’s what the US calls an “authoritarian system.”
Other countries cannot and/or do not want to defend themselves. These countries are either plundered by the USA or, like Europe, functionalized for their geostrategic economic wars. That means: they will be destroyed, including Europe, as we are currently experiencing. With it, however, also the power base of the USA.
Hudson describes the contradictions of American geopolitics, which is destroying its own foundations
und hier in Deutsch:
“Der Kern des Hudson’schen Denkens besteht darin, dass die USA sich von anderen kapitalistischen Nationen dadurch unterscheiden, dass sie ohne jede Rücksicht auf gemeinwirtschaftliche, letztlich sogar staatliche Interessen sämtliche Lebensbereiche radikal der privaten Bereicherung unterwerfen: Bildung, Gesundheit, Versicherungen, Verkehr, Versorgung, Infrastruktur, Wohnen, Landwirtschaft.
Mit den damit einhergehenden Kostenexplosionen für die Dinge des normalen Lebens untergräbt sich diese Gesellschaft nicht nur ihren sozialen Zusammenhalt, sondern auch ihre industrielle Basis und die Landwirtschaft. Der Finanz-, Energie- und Militärsektor bereichert sich auf Kosten des Restes der US-Gesellschaft – was nur gut geht, solange sich die USA mit ihrem Dollar auf der ganzen Welt kaufen können, was sie benötigen, dort die Märkte beherrschen und direkten Zugriff haben auf fremde Ressourcen.
Das wiederum gefällt Ländern wie Russland und China nicht. Sie wollen die Kontrolle ihre Unternehmen und Reichtümer ja noch nicht mal einheimischen, geschweige denn amerikanischen Konzernen überlassen. Und sie sind in der Lage sich zu wehren. Das nennen die USA dann “autoritäres System”.
Andere Länder können und/oder wollen sich nicht wehren. Diese Länder werden durch die USA entweder ausgeplündert oder, wie Europa, für ihre geostrategischen Wirtschaftkriege funktionalisiert. Das heißt: sie gehen dabei zugrunde, inklusive Europa, wie wir soeben erleben. Damit allerdings auch die Machtbasis der USA.
Hudson beschreibt die Widersprüche der amerikanische Geopolitik, die sich selbst ihre Grundlagen zerstört.
Michael Hudsons text in german:
https://www.facebook.com/dr.jankobel/posts/3605905086308592
(the english original is on the Saker’s site)
Posted by: njet | Jul 30 2022 11:01 utc | 23
America is the world’s largest ‘merchant of death.’ Every American president is a ‘merchant of death.’
All the more reason why America should be hit. Not like 9/11, a Bush stunt, but with incendiary bombs…just imagine how California, Washington would burn…
Most probably, none of you can imagine war on the US soil, cities going in flames…no jobs…no medicine…not enough food…
Why not?!
The US should be taught a lesson. There are enough Iraqis, Afghans, Syrians, Somalians, Libyans etc, just waiting for a chance. Most probably all the Latin America too.
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 11:07 utc | 24
An assortment of statements made by rk in the previous Ukraine Open Thread:
#270, referring to Ukrainian strike on Yelenovka prison:
Another day, another Shoigu failure
#279:
So again, let’s congratulate Mr Shoigu for his great strategy and for supporting nato interests.
#283:
China will be dragged in a war or falls before it starts and accepts to sanction Russia. Iran will also be hit and in 6-12 months Russia will have no allies and the Ukr war will still be far from finished, thanks to the great strategy of running around
When it was pointed out to rk by me and other commenters that these may not be the most reasonable, realistic statements, he/she went mad, writing to me in #305:
You are simple propagandist with no logic, only statements you and only you consider absolute truth.
You be the judge who is the one lacking logic, yet considering his/her hysterical pronouncements to be absolute truth.
Posted by: S | Jul 30 2022 11:14 utc | 25
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (30072022)
On the evening of July 28, a military railway echelon at the Krasnoarmeysk station of the Donetsk People’s Republic, carrying an elite assault battalion of the 1st separate brigade of the President of Ukraine, was destroyed by a high-precision air-based weapon. More than 140 nationalists were killed on the spot. About 250 more militants were injured in various degrees of severity. All military equipment that was in the echelon has been disabled.
On July 29, a high-precision air-based weapon hit the temporary deployment point of the multiple launch rocket systems division of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Yasnobrodovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic. As a result of the strike, up to 30 servicemen, military equipment and a warehouse with rockets for Grad combat vehicles were destroyed.
In the area of the settlement of Artemovsk, high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit the temporary deployment point of the 14th mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The losses of the compound amounted to up to 50 servicemen and eight pieces of military equipment.
High-precision Iskander missiles near the city of Bogodukhov, Kharkiv region, struck a temporary deployment point of the nationalist formation “Kraken”, equipped in the hangars of a local meat processing plant. More than 30 Nazis and 10 pieces of military equipment were destroyed.
During the day, eight control points were hit, including the 80th airborne assault Brigade in the Seversk area, the 72nd mechanized brigade in the Artemovsk area of the Donetsk People’s Republic, as well as enemy manpower and military equipment in 256 districts. Three warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition of the 72nd mechanized Brigade in the Artemovsk area and the 24th mechanized Brigade in the Soledar area of the Donetsk People’s Republic were destroyed.
In the area of Krivoy Rog, the fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed a MiG-29 aircraft of the Air Forces of Ukraine. In addition, in the area of the settlement of Nikiforovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the AN/TPQ–36A counterbattery radar station was destroyed, and in the area of the settlement of Novovorontsovka of the Kherson region, the AN/TPQ-37 counterbattery radar station was destroyed.
As part of the counter-battery struggle, two M777 howitzers were destroyed in the Stepnogorsk area of the Zaporozhye region and hit: a battery of multiple launch rocket systems “Hurricane” near the settlement of Kurdyumovka and two artillery batteries of howitzers “Hyacinth-B” in the areas of Kodema and White Mountain of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Also suppressed: six platoons of the Grad MLRS, two self-propelled artillery batteries of the Gvozdika ACS, three artillery platoons of D-20 guns, four artillery platoons of D-30 guns in firing positions in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Paraskovievka, Zvanovka, Razdolovka, Novgorodskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Orlovka, Kamyshevakha, Kurakhovo of the Donetsk People’s Republic Republics, Druzhnoye, Gulyai Pole of the Zaporozhye region, Shirokoe, Malaya Korenikha, Kirovo, Kalinovka and Bereznegovatoye of the Mykolaiv region.
Russian air defense means shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles during the day in the areas of the settlements of BRAZHKOVKA, Glubokoe, Donetsk, Novaya Dmitrovka, Velikaya Kamyshevakha, Chervonaya Gusarovka, Izium, Petropavlovsk, Kharkiv region, Sands of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Kherson. In addition, six multiple rocket launchers were intercepted in the air over the settlements of Novaya Kakhovka, Chervoniy Mayak, as well as two Tochka-U ballistic missiles in the area of the settlement of Staraya Mayachka, Kherson region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 261 aircraft, 145 helicopters, 1,644 unmanned aerial vehicles, 361 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,190 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 772 multiple rocket launchers, 3,217 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 4,573 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: Summary30072022 | Jul 30 2022 11:37 utc | 26
Russia dropped a truth bomb on Antonio Guterres in Kiev. Old Antonio not only saw the terror and destruction caused from placing legit military targets in highly populated areas he completely ignored the fact it was a legit war crime. The UN is being heavily exposed as a joke.
There is zero reason to leave evidence as is.
War on terror…Terrorize the plannet tourture everyone and kill what? 20-30 million? I doubt prof of killing anyone matters anymore to the Russians
Posted by: OhhCanada | Jul 30 2022 11:53 utc | 27
West prepares to plunder post-war Ukraine with neoliberal shock therapy: privatization, deregulation, slashing worker protections
Western governments and corporations met in Switzerland to plan harsh neoliberal economic policies to impose on post-war Ukraine, calling to cut labor laws, “open markets,” drop tariffs, deregulate industries, and “sell state-owned enterprises to private investors.”
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 8:02 utc | 1
That conference is nothing more than propaganda. There are no laws to protect [a trashed nation of people] from [private monopoly owning and powered corporate invasion and privatization] abuse
Posted by: rk | Jul 30 2022 8:51 utc | 5
Rentier Capitalism and Debt Trap Economics.https://les7eb.substack.com/p/ukraine-notes-the-long-proxy-war-b15
Posted by: Lez | Jul 30 2022 9:03 utc | 6
Except for the Ukrainian grunts on the ground, the USA and
EU are running the entire Ukrainian war
The global monopoly powered Oligarchs prepare their corporations to rape, pillage, privatize what’s left of Ukraine.
(Recognizing) we are already de facto in World War 3; one has to wonder how the White House is getting away with ignoring the War Powers mandates in the US Constitution.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:14 utc | 7 & Jul 30 2022 9:23 utc | 9
Julian Assange in the Russia political prisoner exchange ?
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:51 utc | 14
Michael Hudson misses the underlying strength to the privatized global wealth extraction systems that empower the Oligarch mafias? The source of that monopoly power is rule of law. Copyrights, patents, trademarks, and government contracts and franchises of local utilities.. they need the government of Ukraine to pass the laws that enable privatization; if Russia takes all of Ukraine, privatization may not occur. It is these laws that create monopoly powers, extraction in to private ownership of public goods is not possible without a nation state to generate the powers from rule of law.
Wealth derived from monopoly power is dependant on rule of law. <=Hence a weakness exist in pillage privatization.
merely remove both the laws that allow the fictions called corporations and partnerships and trust, etc. to exist and remove the copyright, patent, deed, and trademark laws from the books. Presto over night the privatized wealth becomes public wealth.
above is answer to njet | Jul 30 2022 11:01 utc | 25
America is the world's largest 'merchant of death.' Every American president is a 'merchant of death.'
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 11:07 utc | 26
<= Maybe a major difference exist between America and the USA.. don't confuse the two?
Posted by: snake | Jul 30 2022 11:55 utc | 28
https://tass.com/politics/1486359
I haven’t seen anyone bring this up before. SCO is going to gradually supplant the UN as an international authority. UN authority and influence has been eroded by the US to the point of near irrelevance. The order established after 1945 is rapidly ending.
In other news, it astounds me that the whole globe knows the history lesson of Hitler attacking the Soviets while at war with Britain – and yet the US pushes for war with China while losing the proxy war in Ukraine. It isn’t stupid, it’s deranged.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 30 2022 12:22 utc | 29
Funny in Germany the media already prepares the people that if you protest against the government in autumn/winter then you will be a not z
Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 12:32 utc | 30
Another one for the no Nazis in Ukraine file …
https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/russia-suspends-gas-supplies-after-deadly-prison-strike/news-story/6c996dce8068a482b978bafd9801c4db
Posted by: MrV | Jul 30 2022 12:35 utc | 32
Thank you Ostro, 68984 now.
It’s the weekend 🙂
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 30 2022 12:49 utc | 33
I should add that currently it is likely the most watched plane in the world if the Flightradar24 stats are representative.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 30 2022 12:53 utc | 34
It has been 16 days since b made the prediction that:
In a week or two the line down from Siversk to Krasna Hora will probably be under Russian control. Bakhmut, which is very fortified, may take a few more days to fall.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/ukraine-sitrep-further-defense-lines-a-failed-counterattack-weapon-deliveries.html
If you compare the LiveUAmap screenshot in that post to the same source today, you can see that the Siverk-Krasna Hora line is unchanged.
I think the lack of progress there and slow progress south of Bakhmut can be partly ascribed to HIMARS (Russian long-range fires remain suppressed relative to their earlier rate, likely because of the relative inefficiency of using long truck routes for supply rather than “last mile” trips from supply depots near the front). And, partly to Russia attempting to prevent or counter a Ukrainian offensive toward Kherson. There are reports of some BTGs shifting from Donbas to the south so we may be seeing a switch to consolidation/defense by Russia in Donbas with opportunistic attacks rather than a general offensive. I continue to think that Russia will not take Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
In Kherson direction, the railway bridge got hit – smartly, I think, not on the span over the river which looks quite solid, but on the elevated portion over the river bank. Seems to be significant damage:
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1553336503560015873
Unconfirmed reports that a large convoy crossed north over the Nova Kakhova dam bridge, so Russia may be deciding to seriously contest that territory despite degraded supply lines.
Posted by: Yenwoda | Jul 30 2022 12:58 utc | 35
Macpott | Jul 30 2022 12:33 utc | 35
Sorry, the link does not work.
Posted by: Hausmeister | Jul 30 2022 12:59 utc | 36
@ Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 12:32 utc | 34
That’s because those lying turds know the only ones who voted against weapons sales to Ukraine were the AfD and Die Linke. Good luck convincing even the gullible brainwashed Germans that Die Linke are NotZ’s.
Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 30 2022 13:01 utc | 37
so Russia may be deciding to seriously contest that territory despite degraded supply lines.
Posted by: Yenwoda | Jul 30 2022 12:58 utc | 39
—
You got any proof of those “degraded supply lines?”
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 13:03 utc | 38
@ Posted by: ostro | Jul 30 2022 13:00 utc | 41
The Chicken has landed
https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2cdb2d95
Posted by: Fail-35 | Jul 30 2022 13:09 utc | 39
uncle tungsten@1
It has already been done by the oligarchs and their fascist enforcers.
There aren’t any labour laws or Unions or opposition parties of any kind left. They have re-invented, and ‘improved’ Nazism.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/07/27/our-european-values-1-21-euro-minimum-wage-in-ukraine/
Posted by: bevin | Jul 30 2022 13:13 utc | 40
@ Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 13:03 utc | 43
“You got any proof of those “degraded supply lines?”
Did he not just post a video of the damaged bridge? i would call that a degraded supply line wouldn’t you?
Posted by: fff | Jul 30 2022 13:21 utc | 41
@Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 30 2022 13:01 utc | 42
Unfortunately I think they will succeed, the need/dream for the “old normal” is just bigger than to start with critical thinking, sadly that is the state of mind of most people in Germany 2022
Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 13:21 utc | 42
Posted by: fff | Jul 30 2022 13:21 utc | 47
i’ve seen a purported photo of the ghost of kiev, i would call that bullshit, wouldn’t you?
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 13:29 utc | 43
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 11:07 utc | 26
the problem is that “lesson” may result in the destruction of civilization. assuming you are serious.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 13:31 utc | 44
@ Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 13:21 utc | 48
You’re telling me! I have to put with so much grief here, and many passive aggressive comments from my German friends, asking me ‘how’s Russia’, telling me I’m brainwashed or calling my name in Russian for merely explaining why things are the way they are and trying to point out the West’s role in this mess, and then here folks like ‘ppp’ et al accusing me of being some troll or on Zelensky’s pay roll for occasionally not wholly drinking their brand of cool aid and holding both sides to the same standards. It’s gone crazy all over to be honest.
Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 30 2022 13:33 utc | 45
S | Jul 30 2022 8:16 utc | 2
Thanks for the list!
—
RT has an article on how the German PZH2000 are doing in Ukraine: German weapons failing in Ukraine.
The weapons are reportedly struggling to deal with the high rate of fire the Ukrainian military favors.
Some of the hardware is displaying error messages and is in need of repair.
With ammo stocks running low, Ukraine has also attempted to fire incompatible ammunition from the German howitzers, Der Spiegel reported.
Savor that last sentence. Maybe they were trying to fire stone balls? Українські дебіли!
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 30 2022 13:38 utc | 46
So SPAR19 is in Hn. Will it be the same flight to Japan?
Posted by: Surferket | Jul 30 2022 13:44 utc | 47
Hu Xinjin’s Twitter post on shooting down US planes if they refuse to turn around got deleted by the fascists.
Posted by: Surferket | Jul 30 2022 13:45 utc | 48
@ Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 30 2022 13:33 utc | 51
Batshit crazy, kind of same situation for me. I even need a break with many people right now cause all they do is make me aggressive since no shit russia “invaded” crimea because shell wanted to extract Natural Gas from the Crimea Basin and thus russia would not have an option to export gas to europe…. that is basically the thinking well, the Black Sea Fleet was never based in Simferopol was it?
Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 13:48 utc | 49
i’ve seen a purported photo of the ghost of kiev, i would call that bullshit, wouldn’t you?
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 13:29 utc | 49
Of course i know it’s bs, i even recognise the game it was from, and so what? What’s your point? Are you actually trying to question the veracity of the damage to the bridge? in which case, you are nuts.
What does your question have to do with the bridge and the topic of the conversation? Someone made a point, provided an example as evidence, that evidence has been widely shared on both sides, end of discussion.
Then ppp tries to undermine that point by ignoring its most basic premise, i called him out on it, and now you want to jump in and bring in some spurious bs about stuff we both agree on anyway to muddy the waters, because you can’t handle the fact that not everything sometimes goes Russia’s way, despite the obvious fact they are crushing Ukraine? Are you 5 years old or just stupid?
Posted by: fff | Jul 30 2022 13:53 utc | 50
@ Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 13:48 utc | 55
Not sure who you’re arguing with, but in the case they are yanks, you can tell them 1783 (when Sevastopol naval base was founded) precedes the Louisiana Purchase, meaning it’s been Russian longer than any land west of the Mississippi belonged to the USA, or if it’s an Aussie, their First Fleet landed in 1788! Same with Germany, it wasn’t even a country then.
Pick the country, try find relevant history and facts that relate to their culture and point of view, i find it’s a better way of getting through to them than antagonising and just telling them they are stupid and wrong ;
Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 30 2022 14:03 utc | 51
@ Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 30 2022 14:03 utc | 57
Thats not it, those are people who should be able to think for themselve, but as soon as you question their narrative they label you as a troll so no I dont tell them that they are stupid but they are able to trigger me like that since those people are friends… and no yanks
Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 14:09 utc | 52
Pelosi’s military plane, ‘SPAR19’ USAF cannot land in Taiwan (China): she’s not going to Taiwan.
All of this yet another media stunt.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jul 30 2022 14:14 utc | 53
Not sure who you’re arguing with, but in the case they are yanks, you can tell them 1783 (when Sevastopol naval base was founded) precedes the Louisiana Purchase,
Of course it does because in 1783 American Colonies were rebel strongholds aided by France, Spain, Netherlands and Russia………
3 Sept 1783. Treaty of Paris……….
Britain acknowledges the United States (New Hampshire, Massachusetts Bay, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia[16]) to be free, sovereign, and independent states, and that the British Crown and all heirs and successors relinquish claims to the Government, property, and territorial rights of the same, and every part thereof,
Establishing the boundaries of the United States, including but not limited to those between the United States and British North America from the Mississippi River to the Southern colonies. Britain surrenders their previously owned land,
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 30 2022 14:27 utc | 54
Catherine the Great annexed Crimea 19 Sept 1783
She created League of Armed Neutrality 1780 during American Colonial Insurrection
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 30 2022 14:32 utc | 55
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 30 2022 13:38 utc | 52
Apparently design spec was 100 rounds/day and Ukraine is firing 150/day without increasing maintenance schedules on weapons systems.
Presumably German specs were to use these weapons as a component of a NATO artillery campaign not as standalone weapons. No doubt Ukrainians do not have the maintenance skills for Western weapons having more durable Soviet weapons with lower maintenance requirements
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 30 2022 14:36 utc | 56
Posted by: fff | Jul 30 2022 13:53 utc | 56
im saying you act like just another concern troll. oooh russia is doing so badly, when we both know that is not the case.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 14:40 utc | 57
A couple of MSM doozies
The rouble is soaring and Putin is stronger than ever – our sanctions have backfired – Grauniad
Notable mostly because the Grauniad has been notably rabidly anti-Putin…
Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding – foreignpolicy.com
A detailed examination of this article is necessary:
Myth 1: Russia can redirect its gas exports and sell to Asia in lieu of Europe.
This is one of Putin’s favorite and most misleading talking points, doubling down on a much-hyped pivot to the east. But natural gas is not a fungible export for Russia. Less than 10 percent of Russia’s gas capacity is liquefied natural gas, so Russian gas exports remain reliant on a system of fixed pipelines carrying piped gas. The vast majority of Russia’s pipelines flow toward Europe; those pipelines, which originate in western Russia, are not connectable to a separate nascent network of pipelines that link Eastern Siberia to Asia, which contains only 10 percent of the capacity of the European pipeline network. Indeed, the 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas exported by Russia to China last year represented less than 10 percent of the 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas sent by Russia to Europe.
Long-planned Asian pipeline projects currently under construction are still years away from becoming operational, much less hastily initiated new projects, and financing of these costly gas pipeline projects also now puts Russia at a significant disadvantage.
What is noted above is true, but largely irrelevant and cherry picked.
Gazprom’s 2021 annual earnings hit record on gas price rally – bloomberg
Net income rose to 2.09 trillion rubles in 2021 compared with 135 billion rubles the previous year, Gazprom reported Thursday.
The Yale authors are clearly comparing vs. 2021 as opposed to prior years.
A second, even bigger problem is that this report makes no comparison of the losses being suffered by Europe as a consequence of the Russian natural gas situation – the equation isn’t just about what Russia is/is not experiencing but the relative impact of abated Russian natural gas sales not just on Russia, but on European customers. It is abundantly clear that the loss of revenue to Gazprom is a drop in the bucket compared to the losses being experienced by EU economies and EU citizens…
But then, Yalies are a bunch of morons anyway.
Myth 2: Since oil is more fungible than gas, Putin can just sell more to Asia.
Russian oil exports now also reflect Putin’s diminished economic and geopolitical clout. Recognizing that Russia has nowhere else to turn, and mindful that they have more purchasing options than Russia has buyers, China and India are driving an unprecedented approximately $35 discount on Russian Urals oil purchases, even though the historical spread has never ranged beyond $5—not even during the 2014 Crimean crisis—and at times Russian oil has actually sold at a premium to Brent and WTI oil. Furthermore, it takes Russian oil tankers an average of 35 days to reach East Asia, versus two to seven days to reach Europe, which is why historically only 39 percent of Russian oil has gone to Asia versus the 53 percent destined for Europe.
This margin pressure is felt keenly by Russia, as it remains a relatively high-cost producer relative to the other major oil producers, with some of the highest break-evens of any producing country. The Russian upstream industry has also long been reliant on Western technology, which combined with the loss of both Russia’s erstwhile primary market and Russia’s diminished economic clout leads to even the Russian energy ministry revising its projections of long-term oil output downward. There is no doubt that, as many energy experts predicted, Russia is losing its status as an energy superpower, with an irrevocable deterioration in its strategic economic positioning as an erstwhile reliable supplier of commodities.
More junk economics from numbskulls. Again, clearly “positional” analysis as opposed to intelligent analysis: the price premium spread is true but the high present price of oil means Russia is getting paid far, far above the price on which Russia’s budget is geared for.
American and EU consumers and economies, on the other hand, are clearly geared for far, far lower oil prices.
Myth 3: Russia is making up for lost Western businesses and imports by replacing them with imports from Asia.
Imports play an important role within Russia’s domestic economy, consisting of about 20 percent of Russian GDP, and, despite Putin’s bellicose delusions of total self-sufficiency, the country needs crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners. Despite some lingering supply chain leakiness, Russian imports have collapsed by over 50 percent in recent months.
China has not moved into the Russian market to the extent that many feared; in fact, according to the most recent monthly releases from the Chinese General Administration of Customs, Chinese exports to Russia plummeted by more than 50 percent from the start of the year to April, falling from over $8.1 billion monthly to $3.8 billion. Considering China exports seven times as much to the United States than Russia, it appears that even Chinese companies are more concerned about running afoul of U.S. sanctions than of losing marginal positions in the Russian market, reflecting Russia’s weak economic hand with its global trade partners.
This is idiotic on many levels, but I’ll stick to the main two:
1) where exactly are the losses in imports? If the losses are iPhones and high end perfumes and the like, big fucking deal.
2) how accurate is the China data, particularly in the era of sanctions and SWIFT based economic surveillance? The exit of Russia-Chinese bilateral business from SWIFT would certainly affect economic surveillance, doncha think?
Myth 4: Russian domestic consumption and consumer health remain strong.
Some of the sectors most dependent on international supply chains have been hit with debilitating inflation around 40-60 percent—on extremely low sales volumes. For example, foreign car sales in Russia fell by an average of 95 percent across major car companies, with sales ground to a complete halt.
Amid supply shortages, soaring prices, and fading consumer sentiment, it is hardly surprising that Russian Purchasing Managers’ Index readings—which capture how purchasing managers are viewing the economy—have plunged, particularly for new orders, alongside plunges in consumer spending and retail sales data by around 20 percent year-over-year. Other readings of high-frequency data such as e-commerce sales within Yandex and same-store traffic at retail sites across Moscow reinforce steep declines in consumer spending and sales, no matter what the Kremlin says.
Russia’s economy isn’t 69% based on consumer spending, so even were the above assertions true (which it is not clear they are), it is simply not remotely as relevant to Russia’s economy as it is for US and EU economies.
Myth 5: Global businesses have not really pulled out of Russia, and business, capital, and talent flight from Russia are overstated.
Global businesses represent around 12 percent of Russia’s workforce (5 million workers), and, as a result of the business retreat, over 1,000 companies representing around 40 percent of Russia’s GDP have curtailed operations in the country, reversing three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and talent flight in a mass exodus of 500,000 individuals, many of whom are exactly the highly educated, technically skilled workers Russia cannot afford to lose. Even the mayor of Moscow has acknowledged an expected massive loss of jobs as businesses go through the process of fully exiting.
1000 companies have exited: how many are actually vital to Russia’s economy? I suspect very few.
500,000 individuals have fled. The high profile ones are actors/media talents with large contract deals and/or assets abroad. Does losing them make any difference to Russia? I think not.
Capital flight: bullshit. Any capital that wants to leave Russia, left long ago since offshoring of capital has been a notable feature of Russia for decades. If anything, the recent actions (Russia eurodollar reserve confiscation, US and EU confiscation of Russian individuals (oligarch and non-oligarch alike) and so forth have reinforced to many that sovereign protection matters and that the US and EU are no longer ruled by law.
Myth 6: Putin is running a budget surplus thanks to high energy prices.
Russia is actually on pace to run a budget deficit this year equivalent to 2 percent of GDP, according to its own finance minister—one of the only times the budget has been in deficit in years, despite high energy prices—thanks to Putin’s unsustainable spending spree; on top of dramatic increases in military spending, Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention, including a laundry list of Kremlin pet projects, all of which have contributed to the money supply nearly doubling in Russia since the invasion began. Putin’s reckless spending is clearly putting Kremlin finances under strain.
If Russia is only 2% in budget deficit with an active war on involving the 2nd largest army in Europe – damn that is impressive. Let’s contrast that with the US budget:
10% military spending
40.7% deficit in 2021 (i.e. during peace)
More Yalie idiocy…
Myth 7: Putin has hundreds of billions of dollars in rainy day funds, so the Kremlin’s finances are unlikely to be strained anytime soon.
The most obvious challenge facing Putin’s rainy day funds is the fact that of his around $600 billion in foreign exchange reserves, accumulated from years’ worth of oil and gas revenues, $300 billion is frozen and out of reach with allied countries across the United States, Europe, and Japan restricting access. There have been some calls to seize this $300 billion to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Putin’s remaining foreign exchange reserves are decreasing at an alarming rate, by around $75 billion since the start of the war. Critics point out that official foreign exchange reserves of the central bank technically can only decrease due to international sanctions placed on the central bank, and they suggest that nonsanctioned financial institutions such as Gazprombank could still accumulate such reserves in place of the central bank. While this may be technically true, there is simultaneously no evidence to suggest that Gazprombank is actually accumulating any reserves given sizable strain on its own loan book.
Furthermore, although the finance ministry had planned to reinstate a long-standing Russian budgetary rule that surplus revenue from oil and gas sales should be channeled into the sovereign wealth fund, Putin axed this proposal as well as accompanying guidelines directing how and where the National Wealth Fund can be spent—as Finance Minister Anton Siluanov floated the idea of withdrawing funds from the National Wealth Fund equivalent to a third of the entire fund to pay for this deficit this year. If Russia is running a budget deficit requiring the drawdown of a third of its sovereign wealth fund when oil and gas revenues are still relatively strong, all signs indicate a Kremlin that may be running out of money much faster than conventionally appreciated.
See #6 above
Myth 8: The ruble is the world’s strongest-performing currency this year.
One of Putin’s favorite propaganda talking points, the appreciation of the ruble is an artificial reflection of unprecedented, draconian capital control—which rank among the most restrictive of any in the world. The restrictions make it effectively impossible for any Russian to legally purchase dollars or even access a majority of their dollar deposits, while artificially inflating demand through forced purchases by major exporters—all of which remain largely in place today.
The official exchange rate is misleading, anyhow, as the ruble is, unsurprisingly, trading at dramatically diminished volumes compared to before the invasion on low liquidity. By many reports, much of this erstwhile trading has migrated to unofficial ruble black markets. Even the Bank of Russia has admitted that the exchange rate is a reflection more of government policies and a blunt expression of the country’s trade balance rather than freely tradeable liquid foreign exchange markets.
This is enormous idiocy even for Yale economists. Russia is being sanctioned – why wouldn’t the ruble be trading at reduced volumes?
Myth 9: The implementation of sanctions and business retreats are now largely done, and no more economic pressure is needed.
Russia’s economy has been severely damaged, but the business retreats and sanctions applied against Russia are incomplete. Even with the deterioration in Russia’s exports positioning, it continues to draw too much oil and gas revenue from the sanctions carveout, which sustains Putin’s extravagant domestic spending and obfuscates structural economic weaknesses. The Kyiv School of Economics and Yermak-McFaul International Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures across individual sanctions, energy sanctions, and financial sanctions, led by former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul and the experts Tymofiy Mylovanov, Nataliia Shapoval, and Andriy Boytsun. Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.
And here we get a glimpse of the tail that is wagging the dog: Kiev professors and McFaul the moron.
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual—the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.
I don’t think any commentary is needed to respond to this concluding sentence.
Posted by: c1ue | Jul 30 2022 14:40 utc | 58
@Yenwoda #39
I think it is far too early to say anything.
The pictures you cite consist of a single crater (or maybe 2 or 3) from a bomb or missile, on the land side of the bridge plus a single hole that didn’t break the track of the rail itself.
“degrading” the rail line means either breaking the track or reducing the structural integrity of the bridge such that it cannot carry its full normal weight rating.
Neither of the examples of damage cited, apply.
Note furthermore that rails built on land are VERY fast to repair so the land-side damage is largely irrelevant.
A bridge is a bigger problem to repair because it requires structure replacement as opposed to bulldozing earth and slapping down a rail, but the thick and heavy structural components of a bridge are also a lot harder to damage. You can do it with combat engineer informed, emplaced demolition charges, but hitting it with far, far less precise missiles much less artillery is a completely different story.
Posted by: c1ue | Jul 30 2022 14:52 utc | 59
I see where folks are saying that Russia has suffered 75k casualties so far. Given the same folks tendency to project anyone think that might be a decent estimate of Ukraine casualties? Likewise with the exhaustion and bogging down. Projections?
Posted by: Sigmund | Jul 30 2022 15:30 utc | 60
A straight battle of narratives, the Ukrainian war. The West’s narrative is set out in an article on a site I haven’t previously come across, or if I have I’ve forgotten it, the Daily Kos. TTG picks up on it on Colonel Lang’s site:-
https://turcopolier.com/ukraine-update-all-eyes-on-kherson-as-ukraine-tightens-the-noose-ttg/#comments
That’s clear enough. Back in late February I didn’t have a lot to put against that narrative except my own judgement, which was also clear enough. The unfortunate Ukrainians – I’m not talking about the neo-nazis or the Oligarchs or the Zelensky freak show, just the average Ukrainian – don’t have a hope in hell and haven’t since February 21st.
That being the date Minsk 2 was finally binned. Ritter puts the date a little later – he reckoned there was a chance of saving Minsk 2 for a day or so after the 21st. Not arguing. Ritter’s a lot more clued up, obviously. But I think the 21st was when we in Europe moved into a different world.
So two very different narratives about the outcome of this war. Since February 21st all that’s really happened, when it comes to assessing the validity of the latter narrative, is that various others who are also a lot more clued up have come to much the same conclusion. The unfortunate Ukrainians don’t have a chance. The invaluable “b”, and his commenters, incidentally, underlining that conclusion in just about every article that comes out on MOA.
I’m not being insular, however, when I find the most trenchant criticism of what we’re doing in the Ukraine coming from a British authority. Our own General Lord Richards.
The General has been in the senior ranks of the British Armed Forces. The most senior, I believe. And he’s seen action on the ground. I came across the interview only recently.
He expresses, economically and powerfully, what I’ve felt about the use made of those “unfortunate Ukrainians”, not just recently, but since 2104. He leads in by talking about how we conducted ourselves in the Syrian war. 800,000 casualties, he reckoned. Millions more dispossessed and their lives ruined. Then he applies that lesson to the current war:-
“”But what we’ve then ended up doing is stoking the (Syrian) war by feeding in weapons and resources and some advice, but never giving our proxies the means of winning it; and I thought at the time that that was morally questionable because it would result in a huge number of deaths; which is exactly what happened.”
“We’ve got to be very careful that with our current approach to Ukraine, we don’t end up with the same result.”
That was said soon after February 21st. It’s been born out since. This is a dishonourable war for the West, in that we are using our proxies and simultaneously sacrificing them to that use. Of course there are wider considerations and of course those must receive attention. But at the heart of it all are those Ukrainian proxies, pitilessly fed at our behest into the slaughterhouse and without a hope in hell of winning.
And us, if we’re of the view expressed in that article cited above, cheering them on from the side-lines and insisting more of them get killed. I hope, as we in Europe fuss about those suicidal sanctions and the other risks we’re running, that those Ukrainian proxies don’t get entirely forgotten.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 30 2022 15:47 utc | 61
The Yale article is complete hogwash of course; but it explains why the war party thinks doubling down on failure is going to be successful.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 30 2022 15:57 utc | 62
Link won’t post but if you go to realist online and search for a post by Mashovets from the 29th there’s an interesting assessment from the Ukr perspective. According to the piece, there are almost no Russian army operating in Donbas right now (explains the slow pace) and not a huge force near Kharkov. There is, however, a massive force nearly built in the south. It includes almost all of Russia’s air assault and airborne groupings and lots of everything. He’s claiming something like 30 BTGs assembled. He does not predict the direction of the offensive but does predict early august.
This would explain all the Ukr talk of counteroffensive and the real reason for moving artillery and troops south, which everyone has been commenting on. Whether Russia’s baiting them and not really moving in early august or “Phase III” is going to start without the full liberation of Donbas, only the RMoD knows.
And Ukraine says it will forcibly evacuate 200K+ from Donetsk Oblast (only to the west). I’m sure that will go well. Sounds like retreat under human shields to me.
Posted by: Lex | Jul 30 2022 15:59 utc | 63
@ Posted by: Yenwoda | Jul 30 2022 12:58 utc | 39
I am not familiar with MLRS weaponry. I find it hard to believe that about a dozen(?) HIMARS make a difference. After all, the Ukrainian army has hundreds of other MLRS (at least at the beginning of the war). It is possible that the HIMARS are more accurate than Ukraine’s MLRS from Soviet stocks, but still….
Maybe you can explain this to me?
Posted by: SwissGuy | Jul 30 2022 16:02 utc | 64
English Outsider | Jul 30 2022 15:47 utc | 67
Kos is the shitlib grifter’s Central Committee. Accordingly, the shitlibs made their own vertical for war propaganda production with oligarch and state money laundered through Ukrainian diaspora and think tanks. It’s what they do. They make up stupid stories and play stupid games same as every priest in an agricultural society.
Lang had a stroke and replaced his committee of correspondence with a Fox News watch party, of no value to any but partisan shitcon boomers who care more about the value of their portfolios than the state of the world they are leaving behind. Nothing of value would be lost, except for the pre-stroke archives.
Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Jul 30 2022 16:12 utc | 65
SwissGuy @ 70
The MIC is very proud of HIMARS and wants to sell more. A simple internet search will answer questions. It is extremely accurate due to GPS. The GPS channel it uses is difficult to jam as it is a very powerful signal.
Posted by: circumspect | Jul 30 2022 16:12 utc | 66
erwan castel seems to have a pretty balanced analysis
https://alawata-rebellion.blogspot.com/2022/07/le-grand-spectacle-desespere-ukrainien.html
Posted by: ct | Jul 30 2022 16:13 utc | 67
@circumspect | Jul 30 2022 16:12 utc | 72
“The MIC is very proud of HIMARS and wants to sell more. A simple internet search will answer questions. It is extremely accurate due to GPS. The GPS channel it uses is difficult to jam as it is a very powerful signal.”
Yep, so when the Ukrainians used it to bomb the DPR prison camp and kill their POWs the US claimed that “They didn’t mean to do that…” oops
Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 30 2022 16:18 utc | 68
Most probably, none of you can imagine war on the US soil, cities going in flames…no jobs…no medicine…not enough food…
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 11:07 utc | 26
We don’t have to imagine our state of life here. There is not enough food, no medicine, no housing, no privacy, cities in flames. That is nothing new. Neither is war on US soil. We grow up being on the receiving end of war in our country, class war. Still, you should move here to a nice city. We’ll give you a housewarming present you won’t soon forget.
Posted by: Berndt Braincell | Jul 30 2022 16:27 utc | 69
Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 12:33 utc | 35
I’m afraid I couldn’t get that link to work. Might I ask, do you have another?
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 30 2022 16:32 utc | 70
We’ll give you a housewarming present you won’t soon forget.
Posted by: Berndt Braincell | Jul 30 2022 16:27 utc | 75
————–
You’ve given that “housewarming present” the Ukraine. Its time you get it back, but much larger. The Americans should feel it themselves. They export war to other countries. It should be imported. Get more than they did to Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, Libya etc.
Imagine been a heart patient, or asthmatic or diabetic, for example, and not having the next dose available. Imagine having simple fever and not having the simple aspirin or paracetamol anywhere.
Americans say, it is not us, but our bad leaders…and shrug the responsibility away. No, you should feel it yourself…it is not Hollywood…
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 16:39 utc | 71
@circumspect #72
You said
The MIC is very proud of HIMARS and wants to sell more. A simple internet search will answer questions. It is extremely accurate due to GPS. The GPS channel it uses is difficult to jam as it is a very powerful signal.
Do you have evidence for the military channel being “a very powerful signal”?
I have done work with GPS when I was researching GPS accuracy for a parking app startup. The only differences I read about the military vs. civilian GPS signal were:
1) The military signal uses 2 channels instead of the 1 for civilian
2) The military signal is encrypted
3) The military signal has additional data for reference purposes. The civilian signal requires ground stations to offset atmospheric distortions – all civilian GPS units reference one or more of these ground stations whereas the military uses other means to obtain this info and embed into the military channel. The military channel also supposedly contains some extra info for accuracy, but that is irrelevant these days because accessing a 4th (or 5th or 6th) civilian signal satellite source more than compensates.
There are very good reasons why I have doubts regarding the assertion that the military signal is “stronger”: the GPS satellites have a very short lifespan: 7.5 years. A major reason is battery – sending a radio signal sufficient to blanket the Earth is an extremely power intensive affair. While the signal received on the ground is pretty weak, the full range of a satellite is enormous so the signal loss parameters are very large.
This link talks about GPS satellite specs
How much POWER do the GPS Satellites output on the 1575mhz L1 frequency?
One of our anonomous newgroup readers gave this correct answer..
In the frequency allocation filing the L1 C/A power is listed as 25.6 Watts. The Antenna gain is listed at 13 dBi. Thus, based on the frequency allocation filing, the power would be about 500 Watts (27 dBW).
…
Power source: solar panels generating 1136 watts
Between the power source and the actual power of signal received – it seems extremely unlikely the military channel is using “a very powerful signal”.
Posted by: c1ue | Jul 30 2022 16:40 utc | 72
I dont believe that Pelosi landing in TPE will cause China to immediately begin a war. Because as Lau Tsu says, do not let your enemy decide when and where battle begins. No intelligent military announces exactly when hostilities will commence.
Posted by: Ralph Conner | Jul 30 2022 16:42 utc | 73
Bemildred #15 “War crime” is an oxymoron.
No. It is actually a form of pleonasm, the very opposite of oxymoron. Pleonasm includes a variety of different figures, including tautology, epiphora, lapalissade and other rhetorical redundancy. Phrases like “warrior for peace” and “bombarded with kindness” would arguably be oxymoron.
Posted by: petra | Jul 30 2022 16:46 utc | 74
Evo weighs in on the evil that is the NATO. And the war it is waging against Russia and Ukraine.
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/07/30/former-bolivian-president-evo-morales-calls-for-a-global-campaign-to-eliminate-nato/
Posted by: bevin | Jul 30 2022 17:05 utc | 75
@ c1ue | Jul 30 2022 16:40 utc | 78
thanks.. interesting overview…
my astro prediction for some significant change here with zelensky is either bullshit, or i am wrong.. i give it 4 or 5 days at most…
Posted by: james | Jul 30 2022 17:06 utc | 76
Posted by: petra | Jul 30 2022 16:46 utc | 81
Yes, tautology works nicely for me. Thank you for correcting that.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 30 2022 17:12 utc | 77
“…Imagine been a heart patient, or asthmatic or diabetic, for example, and not having the next dose available. Imagine having simple fever and not having the simple aspirin or paracetamol anywhere…”
ppp@77
All of which happens daily in the USofA. I believe that insulin doses now cost large amounts of money- the production having been monopolised. As for heart patients good luck there, if you are uninsured.
re Nancy’s incredible adventure. This operation has all the marks of a provocation designed to lead to a sanctions campaign against China. Such a campaign would, I suspect and hope, lead to a complete break up of the current international monetary system.
Posted by: bevin | Jul 30 2022 17:20 utc | 78
How deranged is western “democracy”?
While the hag Pelosi takes a mysterious flight path to Singapore, Japan and South Korea — and possibly Taiwan to buy “global responsibilities;
Zelensk* symbolic Israelite kingdom Clashes with the Belgian Foreign Minister over a Visit to the Occupied Peninsula
[Belgium MFA] Hadja Lahbib visited Crimea in July 2021. First, she attended the “Global Values” festival on July 23-25, and then traveled across the occupied peninsula (she told about it on Facebook: July 26-28).
[…]
Traveling to Crimea by plane is illegal: foreigners could legally travel to the occupied peninsula only from the mainland of Ukraine. The law requires Ms. Lahbib to be fined and banned from entering Ukraine for three years.
Halel Ukrania!
“Since the trip you are referring to happened before Mrs. Lahbib was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs and within the realm of her then profession, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will refrain from making any comment,” said Wouter Poels, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to “EP.”[…]
Kyiv says it does not plan to ignore this story. But it also does not want a public conflict. Belgium is an EU and NATO member state. The Lahbib party is friendly to Ukraine. EuroPravda’s sources confirm that Ukraine is now in touch with Belgium, explaining they should find a solution.
So far, no success.
On Thursday, Hadja Lahbib wrote an open letter addressed to Dmytro Kuleba and lost her chance. Lahbib emphasized that Crimea is Ukraine, but she did not mention her trip to the peninsula last year, did not apologize, etc.
This situation reminds us more and more of the story of the Moldovan ex-president Igor Dodon. In 2016, during the election campaign, he declared that Crimea belongs to Russia, which outraged Ukraine. After being elected president, Dodon changed his mind. He stated, “in Moldova, it is impossible to recognize Crimea Russian.” He kept saying about “the integrity of Ukraine,” but he never apologized. As a result, all these years, Ukrainian officials refused to meet with Dodon. He became unmanageable.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 30 2022 17:22 utc | 79
Posted by: bevin | Jul 30 2022 17:05 utc | 82
—
Thanks for the link. Keeping fingers crossed for Morales and such from Latin America. Hope they’d be able to bring down the Empire of Lies together with the UK, as quickly as possible. Russia is helping with in the Ukraine. 😃
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 17:22 utc | 80
On behalf of Norway, I have to apologize for this undiplomatic behavior of a Norwegian diplomat in Murmansk. She needs to be replaced.
https://t.me/intelslava/34280
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 30 2022 17:24 utc | 81
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 30 2022 17:24 utc | 88
—-
Oh, you are one of the very rare Norwegians. 😏
Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 17:28 utc | 82
S | Jul 30 2022 8:16 utc | 2
“³ According to Russian MoD data, Russian forces have destroyed 914 field artillery pieces and mortars from the morning of June 23 to the morning of June 24. What I think happened here is that somebody was supposed to input “14” into the spreadsheet, but instead input “914”, and the higher-ups are either asleep at the wheel and haven’t even noticed the mistake or too proud to admit it and correct the totals.
(Compiled from Russian MoD daily briefings. July 28 briefing is missing from the website, but available on Telegram.)”
I don’t know about Russian keyboards, but on mine, 1 and 9 are on opposite ends, and it’s unlikely anyone would accidentally hit a 9 before 1. IEven on a number pad, they’re n opposite corners. f I understand it, you’re getting weekly totals by subtracting each week’s cumulative total from the one before it, right? If that’s the case, a much more likely cause would be reversing the digits in the thousands and hundreds, which would be a difference of 900 times the difference in the switched digits. (E.g. 2100-1200=900.) What were the cumulative totals that you’re basing that week on?
Posted by: accountant | Jul 30 2022 17:32 utc | 83
The ZBPOCKN Private Equity Fund
(Zelensky, Biden, Pelosi, Obama, Clinton, Kerry, Nuland)
Posted by: FredF | Jul 30 2022 17:40 utc | 84
Posted by: Macpott | Jul 30 2022 17:44 utc | 85
James @83:
“…my astro prediction for some significant change here with Zelensky…”
I haven’t seen your prediction, but here’s mine: they’re going to kill this guy.
Posted by: Donnie | Jul 30 2022 17:46 utc | 86
Difference between MLRS and HIMARS
Posted by: SwissGuy | Jul 30 2022 16:02 utc | 70
I am not familiar with MLRS weaponry. I find it hard to believe that about a dozen(?) HIMARS make a difference. After all, the Ukrainian army has hundreds of other MLRS (at least at the beginning of the war). It is possible that the HIMARS are more accurate than Ukraine’s MLRS from Soviet stocks, but still….
Soviet MLRSs are area-denial and destruction weapons. They are intended to be inaccurate. A BM-21 Grad battery will fire 6 x 40 rockets at once at a concentration of enemy troops. Unless the troops are dug in, everything will be killed or destroyed in an area of several hectares.
The BM-27 Uragan (range 35 km) and BM-30 Smerch (range 90 km) are used for a similar purpose. Each rocket carries a number of submunitions (30 x 9N210 or 72 x 9N235). Other types of warheads, some with longer ranges, are available, but cluster munitions is the type most commonly used.
The M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS can fire satellite guided M30 and M31 ballistic missiles, with a range of 92 km. M31 rockets with a 200 pounds high-explosive unitary warhead was the type used to attack the Antonovsky Bridge. The HIMARS can also fire dumb M28 rockets, with a range of 35 km, but using these would expose the HIMARS launchers to counter-battery fire.
BM-30 Smerch can also fire satellite-guided ballistic missiles. The 9М542 developed in Russia uses GLOSNAS for navigation and has a range of 120m. The Ukrainian R624M with a range of 130 km uses American GPS, but may not actually be in service yet.
Ukraine also has OTR-21 Tochka missiles. The initial version of the missile (“Scarab A”) from the 1980s had a range of 70 km and a circular error probable (CEP) estimated to be about 150 m. Newer Russian versions had longer ranges and higher accuracy. It is likely that Ukraine has also improved the accuracy and range of its missile stock.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 30 2022 18:13 utc | 87
An interesting and timely discussion in a Russian publication addressing the obvious: why is Russia figthing this conflict with one hand tied behind their back? Something that most of us must be wondering by now… Use the available translation from the original Russian article.
https://topwar.ru/199614-kogda-rossija-nachnet-specoperaciju-po-nastojaschemu-novaja-redakcija.html
“When Russia will start a special operation for real
Let’s ask one extremely uncomfortable question – why is Russia behaving relatively “galantly” in the special operation in Ukraine, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to receive (albeit partially) weapons without inflicting significant blows on decision-making centers and infrastructure? Yes, our rockets and artillery inflict huge damage on the enemy! But there are still some red lines.
Here is the opinion of O. Tsarev, a former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, who warned us about the attack on Donbass:
“… The West is trying not to cross certain red lines, including not supplying … weapons that can seriously affect the course of a military campaign. In response, Russia does not “calibrate” Kyiv, the electrical substations that feed the cities, and does not destroy the transport infrastructure … Otherwise, it is impossible to explain what is happening now. Of course, such agreements, if any, drastically reduce losses on both sides.”
Our intentions are good and full of humanity – there is no need to create complete chaos there. But everyone (!) feels that something is not right in this whole story . The Russian army, the second in the ranking of the strongest armies in the world after the United States, cannot be constrained in its actions by the enemy army, which occupies only (!) 22nd place. And the Ukrainian territory cannot be the “Mannerheim Line” in all places (and that one was taken), there must be weak points – and our intelligence is well aware of this.
And if Moscow has been following the red lines since 1985, then they are not written for the West. However, in fact, the stretching of the time of the special operation multiplies the losses of the parties, and lethal weapons – (MLRS) HIMARS are still being delivered!
According to the director of the Institute for Political Studies, Sergei Markov:
“The Russian authorities may find themselves in a dangerous situation of reducing public support for the military operation in Ukraine. The reason is that the Russian army is not advancing and is not inflicting serious blows on the Kyiv regime. This causes growing disillusionment in society. The patriotically oriented part of society … suspects … the lack of political will of the Russian leadership for a serious war. The absence of serious strikes against the headquarters and communications through which mass deliveries of weapons from NATO countries to the Ukrainian army go is inexplicable in public opinion. And they are not explained in any way by the authorities. So the authorities risk losing contact with the population.”
Perhaps the political scientist is harsh, but there is a problem. According to military expert Mikhail Khodarenok:
“A strategy has been adopted to deplete the enemy’s resources. After the final retirement of the combat-ready backbone of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the deprivation of the Ukrainian troops of the minimum number of heavy weapons, repair and fuel and lubricant resources, things will go faster.”
It is very reasonable, indeed now in the Donbass it is “grinding” and the most combat-ready part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already failed. But in terms of supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we see a “phoenix effect” due to NATO supplies, while the stretching of time allows us to constantly replenish the combat strength, albeit with forces of poorer quality.
Need a middle ground
1. The supply of groups is being carried out, which are even in a semi-encirclement. The main scourge of the special operation is Avdiivka, which is located on a hill. On June 13, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out the most powerful shelling of Donetsk in the entire conflict, including M777 guns (USA) and French Caesars, which reached the front line through Poland and Romania (!). Finally, there is a shift here too – the armed formations of the DPR took it into a semicircle, the batteries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to be more effectively suppressed. The stockpiles of chemicals, which cannot be destroyed, and the fortifications at the plant itself also prevent a strike on Avdiivka.
2. But there are also economic reasons, and they probably dominate. The coking plant is the largest in Europe, and, in addition to Akhmetov, the interests of other foreign investors may be involved there.
3. As you know, Roman Abramovich in March came under the sanctions of Great Britain and the European Union. However, around March 23, US President Joe Biden removed him from sanctions at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in advance, since he was assigned the role of mediator in the negotiations in Istanbul, which took place on March 29. And they want to scale this successful example. The West is pushing the idea of giving Russian businessmen the opportunity to “pay off the sanctions” by sending money to help Ukraine. Allegedly, such a proposal was made by the Deputy Minister of Finance of Canada, Chrystia Freeland, after a preliminary discussion (!) Of her idea with the “Russian oligarchs”.
4. As Zbigniew Brzezinski said:
“Russia can have as many … nuclear buttons as you like, but since the Russian elite has $500 billion in our banks, you still have to figure it out: is it your elite or already ours? I do not see a single situation in which Russia will use its nuclear potential.”
It is enough to replace the word “nuclear” with “military”. Moreover, we are talking about a much larger amount. According to the Boston Consulting Group, in 2014 alone, the volume of funds withdrawn by residents of the Russian Federation to offshore reached about $2 trillion.
5. There is evidence that the use of Western weapons allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct a fairly effective counteraction to the Russian army. In particular, military correspondent Oleksandr Sladkov stated in his Telegram channel that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) have recently delivered effective strikes against Russian decision-making centers (!).
6. And here is the message of I. Strelkov:
“Apparently, Russian air defense systems … turned out to be ineffective against massive attacks by Himers missiles … Over the past 5-7 days, more than 10 large warehouses of artillery and other ammunition, several oil depots, about a dozen command posts and about the same number of locations of personal composition in our near and deep rear. As well as several air defense positions and artillery positions … when devastating strikes begin on the so-called transport system. “Ukraine”, through which all these “Himers”, “777” and “Caesars” (as well as ammunition for them) are safely and unhindered delivered to the combat area?
7. As early as April 14, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that the United States does not see Russia trying to interrupt the flow of American weapons entering Ukraine:
“Flights to transshipment points in the region are still operating… Every day, aid arrives in Ukraine… arms, materials… We have not seen any attempts by Russia to cut off this flow. And we’re just going to keep doing it.”
After this fact was announced in Mikhalkov’s Besogon, reports began to appear in the media that warehouses were broken, cargo, bridges, etc. were destroyed. There were also explanations why it was difficult to stop deliveries: the Russian Federation does not want to violate the integrity of the railways, since this will make it impossible for the population to leave the zone of operation, paralyze civilian supplies; cargoes are delivered disguised under the flag of the Red Cross, a mixed composition of civilian and military purposes is drawn up, which cannot be hit.
In fact, arms deliveries are certainly being destroyed, the question is in what proportion. The paradox is that if these deliveries were destroyed “under the root” – they would simply stop. And Kirby clearly hints at this. So, politics is a rotten egg.
According to (17.06) the Kremlin spokesman, the main goal of the operation is to ensure the safety of the inhabitants of Donbass “from the barbaric shelling of the Kyiv military.” And this goal has not been achieved: the shelling does not stop. Moreover, the impudent enemy in his madness is hatching plans for a counteroffensive, the return of the southeastern lands, attacks on the Crimean bridge, etc. Where does all this come from?
The answer is simple – Western help is coming, and Ukraine, having found its calling in the role of an obliging serf, feels the help of a giant octopus. But the mongrels of the West understand only strength, and only a powerful defeat can force Ukraine to change its plans.
Now about the extremely surprising US forecasts regarding the pace of the operation, made on the eve of the special operation – in February 2022:
“Three U.S. officials told Newsweek they expect the Ukrainian capital to ‘fall’ within days.”
And even the head of the US Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, during closed hearings in Congress, said that in the event of Russia’s “invasion” of Ukraine, Kyiv would fall in 3 days.
Perhaps society underestimates the real consequences of Istanbul. We made another gift to the West and Kyiv by withdrawing troops from it. At that time, all the media actively wrote that we would send these forces to the Donbass to wage the main battle – the so-called “Donetsk arc”, but we have not yet seen massive actions. In fact, the reason may be different.
Our oligarchic elite and the “fifth column”, suffering huge losses from the “economic iron curtain”, experiencing constant pressure from their Western partners, fearing an even greater deepening of sanctions, puts pressure on the Kremlin. And as long as our power depends on them, constant “twitching” back and forth cannot be avoided. Our oligarchy will still have time to prove itself as a “real fifth column”. But the authorities, which have grown up in cooperation with them, do not understand this yet. But you can expect anything from them. However, the logic of the development of the situation may lead to the mass disappearance of this class – the nationalization of raw materials is inevitable.
“In order to create favorable conditions for negotiations, we wanted to make a gesture of goodwill,”
– said the press secretary of the President Peskov.
Now let us present the assessments of a number of military experts of the negative consequences of the withdrawal of our troops:
“What is fraught with the withdrawal of Russian troops, which covered Kyiv from the west on the right bank? This grouping hung over the main communications that connected the west of the country with its center and east. Now the way for the supply of weapons from Poland is open … In addition, there is a danger of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on important industrial and energy facilities of the Russian Federation.”
And the second assessment is regarding the fettering of the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the use of the forces of the Russian Federation:
“Will they leave their troops? If only the troops were withdrawn from the bridgehead, then they will remove all this from there. Therefore, talking about what needs to be concentrated in one fist is unrealistic. The Gostomel bridgehead attracted three times more forces than all the others, than now this number will go to the east of Ukraine, to the left-bank front. There are things when this is not a military decision… These are purely political reasons.”
Yes, we won a really huge victory – we took Mariupol, starved out Azovstal – we advanced from the flanks, and this is a great success. Victory is close, but we need to take the Donbass into a dense encirclement, and this step is still (!) not.
It is obvious that the original plan was Plan A (the beginning of a special operation), and the pace of the operation in Ukraine was more understandable. Who knows why the first commander left, perhaps he could not support the “Istanbul” option – plan B.
Why can’t we ensure peace in Donbas yet?
There is the following hypothesis. The parties observe some red lines, but the West has been constantly “throwning” us, at least since 1985. V. Putin back in December 2021 said that Moscow was “pinned” to the red lines, and she had nowhere else to retreat. The holding of negotiations on grain and fertilizers in the same Istanbul and the slowdown in Europe’s decision to completely refuse Russian gas clearly show that there are red lines! The US has not completely cut us off from the “dollar” (!), there are banks that make transactions. Ukraine is not supplied with certain types of weapons. Kyiv has not yet committed sabotage on Russian territory, and we do not see any strikes on Crimea. But at the same time, there are no agreements on NATO expansion, which was the reason for the onset of the crisis, when Moscow first delivered an ultimatum and later resorted to a special military operation.
But then, when our troops showed unprecedented power in the first weeks of the special operation, while occupying vast territories, we were invited to Istanbul and, as in Minsk in 2014, we were offered new red lines. Perhaps we were on the verge of Minsk-3, but only the extremely negative reaction of the Russian society and the fanaticism of Zelensky prevented this.
And we again comply with them, curtailing the scale of the special operation, not realizing that all this will be used against us. Or yielding by inertia, as we have become accustomed to since 1985. Let us recall the historic meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, at which the decision on the NMD was made. So how many of its members offered options – first to notify US President Biden about the decision of the Russian Federation, live in front of the whole country? The US does not have any red lines – that is why they are pumping weapons into Ukraine, and sooner or later this may give a result. If we do not understand, there is simply nothing to be afraid of.
What will be our next push? There must be some event “H” or the achievement of some action on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will make the “Russian bear” wake up and tear his enemies with strong paws. And these enemies are Ukrainian “demons” who have broken through to power. One of the options is the supply of Hymers systems. And the second is a possible major armed provocation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will bring us tangible losses.
And here is the new news – NATO in the coming months intends to increase the supply of (MLRS) HIMARS as a priority, and the greater our success, the greater will be support for NATO. And after that, as on February 24, we will have to enter a new orbit, breaking a new level of red lines.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 7 that Russia has not yet begun to show what it is capable of.
“Everyone should know that by and large we haven’t really started anything yet.”
And this is 100% fact.
Russia acts with varying severity, avoiding massive contact, focusing on remote strikes and showing maximum diplomacy, relying on the turn of the situation and “probing” the possibility of gradual success.
We do not yet have goals for the restoration of the empire, although the course of history pushes us in this direction. If we liberate a significant part of Ukraine (Plan A) – and then annex it to Russia, the West will perceive this as an attempt to restore the empire – which is like a red rag to a bull. And we do not know what to expect from them in this case. And the operation is still (!) Protracted. But if the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine crumbles, we will not lose ours.
According to Oleg Tsarev, some Russian officials are interested in our controlled defeat, trying to maintain their power!
“Imagine… that you have achieved everything in your life… And suddenly life changes dramatically… Change is required, and change can lead to a change in the power elite. How to avoid it?
… A controlled defeat in the war is necessary, concessions to the West that will allow us to return the status quo, and therefore retain power …
In such a situation, the old elites … are trying with all their might to prevent the soonest end of hostilities by defeating the enemy …
Therefore, we do not seize Western assets, which would be a logical, symmetrical measure in response to Western financial and economic sanctions. We continue to pay debts to “unfriendly countries”.
(Quote dated May 12, 2022).
Back in April, military commander Alexander Sladkov put forward his concept of achieving a complete victory in Ukraine:
“Conclusion: the opponent cannot be beaten on points… It is necessary to knock out… we have two options.
First: to wage a slow war, stammering about each village, but moving forward (a year, two?). <...>
The second option is an assault. That is, the mobilization of all forces for a decisive blow. And here – what is more rational? A long war against 20 countries, the economic leaders of the world, or a quick solution …
Well, the maximum build-up of forces in Ukraine in order to turn from a gallant musketeer into a hero Ilya Muromets with a huge club. This club should beat, not lie down.
In his mind, this is a tripling of the combat potential in Ukraine.
And here is Ramzan Kadyrov’s address to the President dated March 4:
“Give an order to our fighters to capture Kharkov, Kyiv and all other cities, quickly, clearly, efficiently … I can’t watch how my and our fighters, the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard and other structures die. I beg you to close your eyes to everything and let them finish in a day or two what is happening there. Only this will save our state and people. This is my firm opinion.”
So, when will Russia finally start a special operation for real? Soon at the door…”
Posted by: Al | Jul 30 2022 18:21 utc | 88
@Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 8:02 utc | 1
One could say the very bankrupt morally/ethically West. Has been drinking from the cup of delusional insanity. It would appear the current world leaders are running away from facing the reality of the real world back on the home front.
One should never count ones chickens, before they hatch.
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 30 2022 18:22 utc | 89
>> they’re going to kill this guy.
Wouldn’t it be better to fake his death but give him a new look and new identity? Hard to recruit future actors if they suspect the script might evolve to write them violently out of the series. Or combine the ideas: If they kill him, they might avoid showing the body, so that it appears he might still be alive. This latter approach ensures “dead man tells no tales” while still allowing handlers to assure future talent that “we’ll take care of you”.
Posted by: dfg | Jul 30 2022 18:24 utc | 90
>> No intelligent military announces exactly when hostilities will commence.
Well, then, it’ll be a surprise. Yes? 😉
If China feels ready, perhaps they’re just waiting for Oceania commit an act that gives it ”justification to act” in the global court of public opinion. This could be the moment.
I wonder what Taiwan would do. Would they fire at PRC jets forcing Nancy Lugosi’s plane? Or would they see the PRC’s strength and rethink their position? When one person stands up to a bully, it inspires more. They might think “now that our homeland is strong enough to stand up to the bully, this is the moment we can rejoin with our homeland and feel safe against the bully”.
Posted by: dfg | Jul 30 2022 18:41 utc | 91
… These helpful mercenaries sure can do war crimes, in case we could ever forget.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 30 2022 9:18 utc | 8
HIMARS was always a sensible suspicion, given the precision of the hit on Azov POWs. If it’s confirmed as HIMARS, that means is was a US strike and probably some kind of message to RF given that the type of projectile used would be quickly determined by DPR / RF.
… It is always odd when people who have been ranting at you suddenly ask if you want to buy something.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 30 2022 10:06 utc | 17
Yes, US publicly brings up a prisoner exchange that doesn’t seem to be anybody’s priority right now and is all made needlessly and deliberately public by them, in the odd ways you note.
If HIMARS is confirmed, the US, at the same time, hits and kills POWs in DPR custody, using a weapon that’s known to be under their sole authority, manned exclusively by NATO “volunteers”.
The US is talking about a seemingly irrelevant prisoner exchange while, tbc, hitting and killing a whole bunch of POW in DPR custody.
Perhaps there is a prisoner exchange proposal, just not one that involves the POWs we’re hearing about.
Perhaps were witnessing a style of diplomatic “signalling”, as imagined by the diseased cranks of US foreign policy?
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 30 2022 18:44 utc | 92
Posted by: Yenwoda | Jul 30 2022 12:58 utc | 39
“a Ukrainian offensive toward Kherson”.
If you think that’s a possibility – even a remote one, then you haven’t been paying attention to facts on the ground. Which leads me to believe that you are a troll – but constrained by reality to fail in credibility .
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Jul 30 2022 18:46 utc | 93
Posted by: Donnie | Jul 30 2022 17:46 utc | 93
sure sounds plausible to me. and note the long history of no longer useful leaders we have killed, hasn’t discouraged new ones. that’s cause some of them prosper.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 30 2022 18:50 utc | 94
@Petri Krohn #94
A decent overview but you are comparing apples and oranges.
The difference between 1950s/1960s era MLRS and modern ones is the projectile itself.
The old systems shoot rockets – the newer systems shoot these too (HIMARS as well) but can also shoot missiles (i.e. rockets with guidance systems).
And while there are some differences between HIMARS and Uragan, they don’t seem major. Philip Karber video on Youtube is where Dr. Karber presents an overview of Russian capabilities to West Point undergrads in 2018.
He specifically notes, for example, that some of the Russian MLRS can launch hunter-seeker anti-tank drones. Compare this to the “Big One” 300 km version the HIMARS launches. Po Tay toe – Po Tah toh
Posted by: c1ue | Jul 30 2022 19:03 utc | 95
Why might the US want to HIMARS a bunch of AZOV POWs? Immediately comes to mind that dead men tell no tales. If any of these AZOVs were in the Avestel catacombs, they may know which “advisers” were killed and bodies burned there.
Maybe these AZOVs actually did the deed, so revenge? Or a signal to any other Uki-Nazis who decide to frag the “advisers” who would send them to be cannon fodder.
In any case, “oops” doesn’t seem to quite cover it.
Posted by: Old canadian | Jul 30 2022 19:22 utc | 96
Paul Greenwood | Jul 30 2022 14:36 utc | 62
“Apparently design spec was 100 rounds/day and Ukraine is firing 150/day without increasing maintenance schedules on weapons systems.
Presumably German specs were to use these weapons as a component of a NATO artillery campaign not as standalone weapons. No doubt Ukrainians do not have the maintenance skills for Western weapons having more durable Soviet weapons with lower maintenance requirements”
Yes, makes sense to me. I always thought such specs, maximum use per day, were bullocks. I’m thinking of the printer I bought for myself, at home. Printers have such specs as well, how many pages you’re going to print on a day, on average. I’ve always ignored those.
100 rounds a day is not much, is it? Those awsome PZH2000s that cost 17 mio €€ a piece nowadays. If you fire just 1 shell a minute, that’s 1 hour of fighting in the morning and maybe another half hour in the afternoon.
I had a look at the Bundeswehr inventory and I was absolutely shocked to learn that ‘we’ have around 100 self-propelled howitzers for artillery. That is it, there’s nothing else left with a big barrel.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 30 2022 19:30 utc | 97
@ SwissGuy | Jul 30 2022 16:02 utc | 70
As others have explained, there is a difference between HIMARS and Soviet era rockets, both in design and use.
Another additional aspect is that HIMARS was designed after the concept of missile to missile interception was implemented. So the radar cross section (RCS) for the missile was reduced to ensure better results. There was a statement by a Russian official last week that the RCS was much lower (90% ?) than similar systems. They had to recalibrate the tracking and targeting radars to recognize this reduced RCS as a true target. Since then, the interception rate has gone way up.
As for rates of fire, the more accurate you are, the less quickly you need to shoot. HIMARS is more equivalent to a sniper weapon than an machine gun on full auto. 10 highly accurate missiles are better than 50 inaccurate ones.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jul 30 2022 20:05 utc | 98
Because UA is winning and the Russians are demoralized….
Ukraine’s Zelenskiy announces mandatory evacuation of Donetsk region
July 30 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s government has decided on a mandatory evacuation of people in the eastern Donetsk region, scene of fierce fighting with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday.
In a late-night televised address, Zelenskiy also said the hundreds of thousands of people still in combat zones in the larger Donbas region needed to leave.
“The more people leave Donetsk region now, the fewer people the Russian army will have time to kill,” he said, adding that residents would be given compensation.
Separately, domestic Ukrainian media outlets quoted Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk as saying the evacuation needed to take place before winter begins since the region’s natural gas supplies had been destroyed.
Zelenskiy said hundreds of thousands of people were still living in areas of Donbas where fighting was fierce.
“Many refuse to leave, but it still needs to be done,” he said. “If you have the opportunity, please talk to those who still remain in the combat zones in Donbas. Please convince them that it is necessary to leave.”
Reporting by David Ljunggren; editing by Diane Craft and Jonathan Oatis
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-announces-mandatory-evacuation-donetsk-region-2022-07-30/?rpc=401&
Posted by: daffyDuct | Jul 30 2022 20:26 utc | 99
@Old canadian | Jul 30 2022 19:22 utc | 103
“In any case, “oops” doesn’t seem to quite cover it.”
Nope – can’t have it both ways: “highly accurate” and “oops” are incompatible so hitting civilians in Donbas and eliminating POWs are clearly intentional.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 30 2022 20:28 utc | 100