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July 26, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-115

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on July 26, 2022 at 7:16 UTC | Permalink

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The price of gas in Europe exceeded 1950 dollars per 1000 cubic meters.

At the official level, the EU once again stated that there are no objective reasons to reduce gas supplies via the Nord Stream to Europe. At the current level of supplies, the shortage of gas in Europe to fill storage facilities this winter may reach 15-20%.

Posted by: price gas rope | Jul 26 2022 8:11 utc | 1

Posted by: price gas rope | Jul 26 2022 8:11 utc | 1

The moron's making the decisiona don't suffer the consequences.
That is the issues.
Fail upwards political imbeciles.
Nearly all with arts humanities degrees of what worth.
With zero real world abilities.
Zero real world experience.
And that's being kind.

Posted by: Jpc | Jul 26 2022 8:36 utc | 2

World War 2.2, that's what this is.

Posted by: Lonkal | Jul 26 2022 8:52 utc | 3

I’m hearing no word of anyone being secondarily sanctioned for breaking sanctions on Russia. Might it be that by cutting Russia off from SWIFT that the 5 Eyes have blinded themselves? Or maybe you clever people have alternative explanation?

Posted by: Jimmy Durante | Jul 26 2022 8:57 utc | 4

Re: natgas

Gazprom says the further reduction to 33 mcm/d (20% of NS2 capacity), is because the required maintenance interval for the compressor, which was supposed to have been replaced by the one not arrived, is about to expire on 27 July.

This, in turn, is a consequence of Siemens being unable to 'resolve paperwork issues' with various authorities, ie unable to assure prior contracts for future service in the face of sanctions.

https://nitter.net/gazpromEN
(gazprom.com is blocked)

---

So this pretty much a direct effect of the missed maintenance. EU natgas price for next winter is now again almost exactly the recent highs. Following winter is not changed much.

TTF (European benchmark) natgas futures
Dec2022 ~= 189 €/MWh
Dec2023 ~= 125 €/MWh

Interestingly JKM (Japan/Korea) and TTF (EU) are still tracking each other, suggesting the seaborne import route to EU is not yet maxed out.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 9:01 utc | 5

Update: $2,000

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2022 9:08 utc | 6

@ptb | Jul 26 2022 9:01 utc | 5

---

Demand destruction will bring down energy prices, but at what cost?

Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2022 9:21 utc | 7

Nord Stream 2 saves little old ladies and single mothers from choosing freezing versus starving.

barflies

Posted by: Exile | Jul 26 2022 9:32 utc | 8

No modern economy can function with these energy prices, the only question left seems to be if it's just because of incompetence or a controlled demolition of the world economy. Many indications point towards the latter.

Posted by: Lurker | Jul 26 2022 9:40 utc | 9

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 9:01 utc | 5

In the maintenance contract with Siemens there's something like 8 repairs/reconditionings. This contract is good until (or through?) 2024. Might be that Gazprom wants to get work done early in case this contact collapses.


Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2022 9:21 utc | 7

Demand destruction will bring down energy prices, but at what cost?

MANY years ago I warned of the concept of "economies of scale" only being seen in ONE direction- increasing/positive, and that there can also be a decreasing/negative "economies of scale." We're now going to see what it means to reverse "economies of scale." "Affordability" will be an ever-increasingly used word (in a less positive way)...

Posted by: Seer | Jul 26 2022 9:41 utc | 10

Over 40 mercenaries destroyed in DPR at their deployment point, mostly Poles

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2022 9:53 utc | 11

Posted by: price gas rope | Jul 26 2022 8:11 utc | 1

Nordstream 1 entered service 2011. The Siemens compressors were new.

Nordstream 2 is even newer and unused.

The problem lies inside Germany. Ukraine cut off supplies through its territory and Poland cut off supplies from Yamal.

Germany cut off supplies through Nordstream 2 and Siemens ensured Nordstream 1 became increasingly incapable of supplying requisite volumes.

Germany seems to be governed by morons and to have proven my theory of German Political Coherence. - Collapse Every 40-50 Years.

GDR lasted 1949-1990 and BRD the same - BRD implemented Anschluss with GDR and used Euro rot prolong the game a bit longer at the expense of EuroZone countries that lived by devaluation against D-Mark.

Habeck and Baerbock run riot with an absent Chancellor who is about as sentient as Biden.

Die haben den Karren gegen die Wand gefahren

Already too late. At 20% the Chemical Industry enters Shutdown Mode for safety reasons. All process industries will now shut down.

The regime in Berlin is unable to save the economy now. With the Rhine at low water levels and Russian containers banned from Rotterdam - the implosion of German logistics chains is unstoppable.

BreXit was the means to reverse German trade surpluses with UK. - it worked very well.

Ukraine was the means to destroy German export industries and block EU integration pledged by Scholz and Merkel.

Boris Johnson was highly effective in this. Next mode is to set Poland against Germany and Club Med against Northern Europe......

Russia is a spectator at the circular firing squad

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 26 2022 9:53 utc | 12

In the maintenance contract with Siemens there's something like 8 repairs/reconditionings. This contract is good until (or through?) 2024. Might be that Gazprom wants to get work done early in case this contact collapses.

It is an Industrial RB-211 engine. I doubt it will last forever irrespective of reconditioning. I should think each maintenance gives 2-4 years use. Corrosion must be a huge problem with the chemical balance of natural gas.

When Siemens sells a capital good to an overseas customer it should honour the contracts through thick and thin and fight any government trying to impede it.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 26 2022 9:57 utc | 13

http://rwgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SGT-A35-Industrial-RB211.pdf

RWG will ship a replacement in advance.........and refurbish within 60 days

This firm is a Siemens contract partner - in EUROPE

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 26 2022 10:00 utc | 14

@10 Seer
Interesting, that's useful info thanks.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 10:00 utc | 15

Habeck has a keen understanding of industry.

Germany has a good chance of avoiding a dramatic industry crisis if it can cut gas consumption by between 15% and 20%, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said late Monday in an interview with state broadcaster ARD Tagesthemen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-26/eu-faces-solidarity-test-over-forced-cuts-in-russian-gas-fight

Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2022 10:03 utc | 16

Posted by: price gas rope | Jul 26 2022 8:11

"At the official level [?], the EU once again stated that there are no objective reasons to reduce gas supplies via the Nord Stream to Europe."

All emphasized and []-ed text is mine.

"No OBJECTIVE REASONS" is total BS; what about "sanctions never seen before"?
THEY (whoever are they are) still don't understand that this is just the BEGINNIG OF TOTAL DESTRUCTION of NATO and EU superstructure.
TOTAL, as implicitely stated by Russia in her proposal for mutual agreement on Europe security on Dec 21th 2021.

Posted by: LongCovid | Jul 26 2022 10:08 utc | 17

re: NS1 reduction from 40% to 20%

Lets not get too excited. When that delayed turbine does get there, it will probably go back to 40%.

Wild guess is Gazprom is asking Germany to figure out the additional formalities to steer clear of the US/EU sanctions regime, so their prior contacts don't keep getting stuck in the future like with Canada. There are lots of service jobs where this can happen in the future, different degrees of "partial resolution" (ie compromise) are possible. And if they can't/won't, it will be useful for everyone to know now.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 10:11 utc | 18

prior contracts*

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 10:12 utc | 19

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (26072022)


More than 40 mercenaries, most of them Poles, were killed by a strike of high-precision air-based missiles at the temporary deployment point of the units of the "Foreign Legion" in the area of the settlement of Konstantinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.


As a result of strikes with precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the area of Nikolaev, the artillery division of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was eliminated, the losses of personnel and weapons of which exceeded 70 percent.


As a result of the strike of the operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the combat positions of the battalion of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the village of Zaitsevo of the Donetsk People's Republic, more than 70 nationalists and an ammunition depot were destroyed.


During the day, eight control points were hit, including units of the 14th mechanized Brigade in the Sol region of the Donetsk People's Republic, the 28th mechanized and 79th airborne assault brigades in the Nikolaev area, as well as the 61st infantry brigade in the area of the settlement Polygon of the Mykolaiv region.


Destroyed: a launcher of the OSA-AKM anti-aircraft missile system in the Bereznegovatoye area of the Mykolaiv region, AN AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar station in the Yagodnoye area of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as eight warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition in the areas of the settlements of Kulbakino, Yavkino of the Mykolaiv region, Bakhmutskoye, Yakovlevka and Zaitsevo of the Donetsk People's Republic.


As part of the counter-battery struggle, the following were suppressed during the day: a battery of enemy multiple launch rocket systems "Hurricane", an artillery battery of howitzers "Hyacinth-B" in the area of Dzerzhinsk of the Donetsk People's Republic and six platoons of multiple launch rocket systems "Grad" in the areas of Shirokoe, Bereznegovatoye of the Mykolaiv region, Ternovatoye, Yulevka of the Zaporozhye region, Paraskoviyevka, Red of the Donetsk People's Republic.


In addition, four artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers, seven platoons of self-propelled artillery units "Gvozdika", as well as nine platoons of D-30 guns in firing positions in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Dzerzhinsk, Georgievka, Vodiane, Razdolnoye, Perezdnoye, Podgornoye, Severnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic, Pershe Travnya of the Dnipropetrovsk region were hit, Novopavlovka, Lull of the Zaporozhye region, Visunsk, Kalinovka of the Mykolaiv region, Pyatigorsk, Skripai and Petrovka of the Kharkiv region.


Two Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by Russian air defense means during the day in the areas of the settlements of Dmitrovka, Kharkiv region and Vavilovo, Mykolaiv region.


In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 260 aircraft, 144 helicopters, 1,613 unmanned aerial vehicles, 358 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4162 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 763 multiple rocket launchers, 3201 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 4481 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

Posted by: Summary26072022 | Jul 26 2022 10:17 utc | 20

When conservative business analytics start to hail left-wing valkyrie Sahra Wagenknecht, you know something stinks in the state of Germany.

All German though ...

Sahra Wagenknecht - Hebt die Sanktionen auf! Warum der Gaskrieg Deutschland ruiniert

Sahra Wagenknecht on youtube

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jul 26 2022 10:20 utc | 21

Two Scents - 16
AH so EU is discussing today mandatory cuts in gaz consumption? Good. This means that this bloody treacherous uber-liberal US vassal piece of shit which is the European Union will begin its disintegration process right now. There's no way any serious independent-minded country or government could accept this, specially if it only requires a majority vote. It also shows that only inbred nations full of retards would ever want to rejoin this basketcase of a Union.
Fuck them. This will only be over when the entire continent has been rid of every single US base and soldier, when NATO has been fully dismantled, and when EU laws and constitution has been massively reformed in a more democratic way - if not fully dissolved.
Looks like heads on spikes will soon come back into fashion.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 26 2022 10:26 utc | 22

How is it possible that the collective West is not afraid of nuclear war and the consequences of this confrontation?

Posted by: Martio | Jul 26 2022 10:27 utc | 23

EU Officials and their think tanks said that there are no technical issues for the Russians to cut their supply on Nordstream1.

I would respond that their are no technical issues in turning on the supply via Nordstream2. Germany decided not to avail itself from that resource which is fully tested and pressurized. Various German gas companies have already figured out how to pay the Russians. What are they waiting for, a chance for more propaganda?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 26 2022 10:39 utc | 24

If you want to have fun go to a retarted propaganda site for trump called gatewaypundit and read the article about NS1. They're praising trump for sanctioning NS2 and claim he was right to block Russian gas for EU because "Putin is bad and turns the gas off"

Actually this isn't propaganda, it's American education and intellect in pure form

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2022 10:40 utc | 25

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 10:11 utc | 18

NO !!!
It may have been on Telegram but Putin laid out exactly what was happening at the compressor station. A second compressor has required scheduled maintenance and was taken offline in June. Another turbine is failing and Siemens confirmed its lining was damaged.

That leaves 2 compressors functional - hence the reduction.

The compressor returned from Canada missed the ferry in Finland on 23 July because of Siemens paperwork deficiencies.

The compressor must be tested by Russia and certified against the paperwork and materials reports - it takes 3 months.

This is critical infrastructure with explosive potential - not a bicycle pump.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 26 2022 11:05 utc | 26

Acco Hengst | Jul 26 2022 10:39 utc | 24

EU Officials and their think tanks said that there are no technical issues for the Russians to cut their supply on Nordstream1

Indeed, but there are some damn serious political issues, like trying to devastate Russia's economy, cause regime change, and militarily attacking them practically directly causing thousands of Russian dead. At this point of overarching nonsense I have no idea who Natostan is talking to anymore, I think the propaganda machine is on auto-pilot. Which is a good thing the propaganda will loose all relevance soon.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 26 2022 11:12 utc | 27

Question: Mr President, a serious energy crisis is developing in Europe, which is discussing the possibility of Gazprom cutting off gas deliveries. The company has allegedly issued an official notification to one of its German clients, citing force majeure circumstances.

Are there grounds for accusing Russia of causing this energy crisis? Will Gazprom continue to honour its obligations


Vladimir Putin: First of all, Gazprom has always honoured, and will continue to honour its commitments.

There are no grounds at all for the attempts by our partners to shift or try to shift the blame for their own mistakes on Russia and Gazprom.

What is the situation with energy deliveries? In 2020, in the first half of 2020, gas cost 100 euros per 1,000 cubic metres in Europe. The price rose to 250 euros in the first half of 2021. Today it is 1,700 euros per 1,000 cubic metres of gas.

What is happening? I have spoken about this on numerous occasions, and I do not know if we should go into detail regarding the energy policies of European countries, which underrate the importance of traditional sources of energy and have put money on non-traditional energy sources. They are big experts on non-traditional relations, and they have also decided to make a bid for non-traditional energy sources like the sun and wind.

Last winter was long, there wasno wind, and that did it. Investment in the fixed assets of traditional energy producers has decreased because of previous political decisions: banks do not finance them, insurance companies do not insure them, local governments do not allocate land plots for new projects, and pipeline and other forms of transportation are not developing. This is a result of many years, probably a decade of this policy. This is the root cause of price hikes rather than any actions by Russia or Gazprom.

What is going on today? Until recently, we supplied gas to Europe without Turkiye: we supplied around 30 billion cubic metres a year to Turkiye, and 170 billion to Europe, 55 billion via Nord Stream 1, and, if memory serves me, 33 billion were supplied via Yamal-Europe, via the two strings that run through Ukraine. About 12 billion were delivered to Europe through Turkiye via TurkStream.

Ukraine suddenly announced that it was going to close one of the two routes on its territory. Allegedly because the gas pumping station is not under its control but on the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic. But it found itself under the control of the Lugansk People’s Republic several months before, and they closed it just recently without any grounds. Everything was functioning normally there, no one interfered. In my opinion, they closed it simply for political reasons.

What happened next? Poland imposed sanctions on Yamal-Europe, which supplied 33 billion cubic metres of gas. They used to take 34, I think, 33–34 million cubic metres a day from us. They shut it down completely. But then we saw that they turned on the Yamal-Europe pipeline in reverse mode, and they started taking about 32 million a day from Germany. Where is the gas from Germany coming from? It is our Russian gas. Why from Germany? Because it turned out to be cheaper for the Poles. They used to get it from us at a very high price, closer to the market price, whereas Germany gets it from us 3–4 times cheaper than the market price under long-term contracts.

It is profitable for German companies to sell it to the Poles at a small premium. It is profitable for the Poles to buy it because it is cheaper than to buy it directly from us. But the volume of gas in the European market has decreased, and the total market price has gone up. Who has won? All Europeans only lost. This is the second point: Yamal-Europe.

So, first one of the routes in Ukraine was shut down, then Yamal-Europe was shut down, now Nord Stream 1, which is one of the main routes – we pump 55 billion cubic metres a year through it. There are five Siemens gas compressor stations working there, and one is on standby. One compressor had to be sent out for repairs. A repaired compressor was supposed to come from Canada, from the Siemens plant in Canada, to replace it. But it ended up under sanctions in Canada. So, one pumping station, just one piece of equipment was out of order because of scheduled maintenance work and it has not been returned from Canada.

Now we are being told that the unit will be delivered from Canada soon, but Gazprom does not have any official documents yet. We must certainly obtain them, because this is our property, it is the property of Gazprom. Gazprom should receive not only the hardware, not only the gas pumping unit, but also the accompanying documents, both legal and technical documentation. We must be able to see what Gazprom is taking – the turbine’s current condition as well as its legal status, whether it is under sanctions or not, what we can do with it, or maybe they are taking it back tomorrow. But that is not all.

The problem is that at the end of July, on July 26, I think – we can ask Gazprom – another turbine should be sent for routine maintenance, for repairs. And where will we get a replacement from? We do not know.

One more turbine is actually out of order because of some crumbling of its internal liner. Siemens has confirmed this. That leaves two operational units, which are pumping 60 million per day. So, if one more is delivered, fine, we will have two in operation. But if it is not, only one will be left, and it will pump only 30 million cubic meters per day. You can count how much time it will take to pump the rest. How is this Gazprom’s responsibility? What does Gazprom even have to do with this? They have cut off one route, then another, and sanctioned this gas pumping equipment. Gazprom is ready to pump as much gas as necessary. But they have shut everything down.

And they have fallen into the same trap with the import of oil and petroleum products. We hear all sorts of crazy ideas about capping the volume of Russian oil imports or the price of Russian oil. This is going to lead to the same situation as with gas. The result (I am surprised to hear people with university degrees saying this) will be the same – rising prices. Oil prices will spiral.

As for gas, there is another route we are ready to open, which is Nord Stream 2. It is ready to be launched, but they are not launching it. There are problems here as well, I discussed them with the Chancellor about six or maybe eight weeks ago. I raised this issue; I said that Gazprom had reserved the capacity, and that this capacity needed to be used, and it cannot be suspended in mid-air indefinitely.

The answer was that there were other issues on the agenda, more important things, so it is difficult for them to deal with this right now. But I had to warn them that then we would have to redirect half of the volume intended for Nord Stream for domestic consumption and processing. I raised this issue at the request of Gazprom, and Gazprom has actually already done it. Therefore, even if we launch Nord Stream 2 tomorrow, it will not pump 55 billion cubic meters, but exactly half that amount. And given that we are already halfway through this year, it would be just a quarter. Such is the supply situation.

But – I said this at the beginning of my answer to your question and I want to end with this – Gazprom has always fulfilled and will always fulfil all of its obligations, as long as, of course, anyone needs it. First, they themselves close everything, and then they look for someone to blame – it would be comical if it were not so sad.

Posted by: gas talk | Jul 26 2022 11:19 utc | 28

Isis, Taliban tactics on the Ukie side. Equally assisted by US/Western "invisible hand".

Posted by: PetrOldSack | Jul 26 2022 11:37 utc | 29

https://tass.com/politics/1484693

According to Russian First Deputy Emergencies Minister Alexander Chupriyan, the number of refugees will exceed three million !

SOLNECHNOGORSK /Moscow region/, July 25. /TASS/. The number of refugees who have fled Ukraine to Russia since February 2022 has exceeded the number of Ukrainian refugees in 2014.

"Back in 2014, we received two million refugees, today, we already have 2.8 million. Some 25,000-27,000 people cross the border every day," he said.

According to Chupriyan, the number of refugees will exceed three million.

He noted that the 2014 experience has helped to handle refugee influx in February. The situation was complicated by the coronavirus pandemic. Russian medics helped some 60,000 refugees, with children accounting for about a third of them.

He also stressed that the refugees have the right to return to their homeland. "But there are many people who receive the refugee status and then - Russian passports," he added.

If you then add-up numbers of migration employees from the area of Central Asia which are about between 3 to 8 million(legal + illegal workers, 1,3 million of those have gotten residency or became citizens already - according to RG.ru), then... the so called demographic problem look far less concerning.

Posted by: MD | Jul 26 2022 11:40 utc | 30

How is it possible that the collective West is not afraid of nuclear war and the consequences of this confrontation?

Posted by: Martio | Jul 26 2022 10:27 utc | 23

The people pushing this confrontation think they will escape the destruction caused by war including nuclear war should it get to that stage. They’ve already built their nuclear bunkers in Patagonia, New Zealand, Raven Rock etc.

Posted by: Down South | Jul 26 2022 11:43 utc | 31

Posted by: Seer | Jul 26 2022 9:41 utc | 10
Substitute "globalism" for "economies of scale" and everyone can identify.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 26 2022 11:47 utc | 32

If you want to have fun go to a retarted propaganda site for trump called gatewaypundit and read the article about NS1. They're praising trump for sanctioning NS2 and claim he was right to block Russian gas for EU because "Putin is bad and turns the gas off"

Totally. Trump demanded that the Germans reject NS2 - without providing a serious alternative of his own.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 26 2022 11:53 utc | 33

The people pushing this confrontation think they will escape the destruction caused by war including nuclear war should it get to that stage. They’ve already built their nuclear bunkers in Patagonia, New Zealand, Raven Rock etc.

The Russians likely to survive the best as they've built massive underground shelters to house millions of people

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/moscow-ready-nuclear-war-lots-bunkers-population-26401

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 26 2022 11:58 utc | 34

EU shouted it'd stop import of Russian natural gas and fuel by 2023. So, why cry now? It is now 20% to Germany, none to Poland, Bulgaria etc. Why should Russia wait till the end of 2022? Is there a single reason to support the old Europe, full of old colonial robbers? There are enough countries in the Global South that will be advanced and rich, if not already.

By the way, the 666 million of the Latin America is waiting the day, it can bring down the Anglo-Saxon North America, which had been stealing them for a long time. (i>Why should anyone in the Global South have to worry about the wellbeing of the EU/UK/NATO/ citizens?!

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 12:07 utc | 35

It seems crazy that a German compressor goes to Canada for refurbishment, even if it is a Siemen's plant. Sounds as though this route was designed for industrial sabotage.

I guess if Putin wanted to be nice, for his European buddies, he could unbolt the presently unused NS2 compressors and both them into NS1.

However, after years of abuse, Putin must now be as obstinate as the Germans!


Posted by: Ric G | Jul 26 2022 12:12 utc | 36

A Trump Tower built in Moscow and one less Jewish Ukrainian listening to Trump phone calls would have the world on a different path right now.

Not a better path, just a different one.

Posted by: mi | Jul 26 2022 12:26 utc | 37

Anyone want to understand the technical aspects of the turbine-compressor repairs on NS1 should close read all of Paul Greenwoods comments.

Paul Greenwood Knows his stuff.


Posted by: Exile | Jul 26 2022 12:26 utc | 38

From the other thread - on the compressor:

https://nitter.net/gazpromEN

Statement from Gazprom.

Posted by: Goingo | Jul 26 2022 12:49 utc | 39

Could it be that there is a plan behind the seemingly senseless act of economic suicide Europe is committing, first and foremost Germany? A plan by the American Empire along these lines:

1) Create a new Great Depression
2) Prop up a new Hitler in Germany, fund as needed
3) Continue to poo-poo Putin, it's all his fault!
4) Take what's left of the European and American economy and convert it into a war economy. Crank out lots of weapons.
5) Stage a false flag event. Putin did it! It's on now.
6) Launch Barbarossa 2.0
7) Europe and Russia destroy each other. Russia has no choice but to accept IMF loans for rebuilding the country at the expense of sovereignty
8) The Empire welcomes Russia as its newest colony

Posted by: aquileia | Jul 26 2022 13:03 utc | 40

The desired 15% reduction in gas use for home and water heating in Europe should not be difficult to achieve.

Many people have been spoiled after decades of living at a constant 22C indoors winter and summer. An indoor range of 18C to 26C is easily done with changes to clothing and lifestyle.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 26 2022 13:14 utc | 41

aquileia | Jul 26 2022 13:03 utc | 40

No, US tries now to destroy Russia's allies, China and Iran. Pelosi's visit and Israel's statements about attacking Iran are not a coincidence. But anything US can do militarily to support Taiwan or Israel will fail, aircraft carriers will sink and their submarines already return damaged from visits near China. US only has nukes left to fight anyone and Israel the same.
Unfortunately all these so called "experts" from the East are completely passive and do nothing more than complain. They trade with their enemies, giving them more money to attack them. Selling gas to nato or Germany after they've studied genetic bioweapons in Ukr means that the biolab story is fake or someone likes money more than their own life. Giving Australia 100bn each year to buy nuclear subs so they can reach and strike you with nukes is another genius move.

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2022 13:27 utc | 42

Opport Knocks | Jul 26 2022 13:14 utc | 41

That is true, even 16C / 28C is easy to do.
I don't think lowering apartment temperature will cover the 15% reduction, the industry is the main consumer. There's also the price problem, at 2k in the summer it can be +4k in the winter (Japan is on the same gas market now, no more cheap Russian gas for them). The superior race was paying 200-300 for gas, they didn't like it, it's their problem.

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2022 13:41 utc | 43

@opportknocks

You dont know what you are talking about.

22degrees indoors is standard nowhere in summer. Cooling is not a thing in private homes in most european places. We and everybody i know had about 30 degrees indoors last week.

I guess you are working a office job? Right. There is of course nobody working outside in winter times, right? The people who clean the streets, who work on farms or in the woods or check electricity grids, those people shell work outside at -10 go home, take a cold shower, sleep with 3 pullovers and go out the very next day again to freeze outside. Thats your plan, right?

But dont worry, for these useless people you will organize warming halls. Sure nobody will catch a cold or covid in such places. If they do, they wount be allowed to go to a hospital or enter a warming hall and will be told to freeze at home and not to use the healthcare system they paid their whole lifes for.

Right? Something along those lines is your plan. You are for sure part of the very intelligent and very good elite we enjoy all over the west.

Note: to catch a cold is an existential crime to the whole society, therefore we are spoiled enough that everybody has a right not to get infected BUT there is no right to energy or heating or food because we all are spoiled and learn to live without those things.

Posted by: Orgel | Jul 26 2022 13:44 utc | 44

@Opport Knocks | Jul 26 2022 13:14 utc | 41

---

According to EuroStat about 40% of gas is consumed residentially.

Industrial use is much less elastic than residential, as it is a direct input to production.

As for demand substitution, energy is encapsulated into goods shipped from non-Western producers.

I can't imagine what the EC is thinking. They are willfully sacrificing their industry, and their industrialists are letting it happen.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2022 13:54 utc | 45

The lemmings pushing each other out of the way to get over the cliff edge.

According to Bloomberg.


EU Countries Reach Agreement On 15% Coordinated Demand Reduction For Next Winter

Posted by: Jpc | Jul 26 2022 13:54 utc | 46

@26 Paul Greenwood

With delays for testing and installation, of course. Not immediately as I said, my mistake.

The longer VVP quote above, @28, seems to give a much more complete explanation

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 13:56 utc | 47

Depression Era grandparents heating levels in house

18 Living Room
12 Bedrooms
12 bathroom
10 Workshop
None Hallways/Stairwell
Kitchen was heated via the woodoven likely over 20

Posted by: Exile | Jul 26 2022 13:59 utc | 48

So the Germans actually keep their homes/apartments at a constant 22 degrees year round as some of you claim? A few months back I read a post from a Swiss guy who complained that he didn’t like going to Germany as their homes were uncomfortably cold in winter. If that is true then they have less room to lower the temperature before it gets miserably cold.
Also if industry has to reduce usage then millions of workers will earn less (either laid off, shorter working week or no overtime) and that means less income to pay for higher gas bills. A winter of discontent is coming.

Posted by: Neal | Jul 26 2022 14:02 utc | 49

With the news of EU "15%" demand reduction program, further price increase on TTF. Now not just a minor increase any longer.

TTF Dec2022 ~ 199 €/MWh (+11% d/d)
TTF Dec2023 ~ 131 €/MWh (+5% d/d)

Because of the way energy is contracted ahead of time, the second of these is now the more significant one for financial impact from the point of view of energy costs paid in the future, but the first one becomes a critical indicator of the degree of shortage if there is any. Or involuntary reduction in energy use, if you like. Such involuntary reduction of energy use has its own economic impact, even beyond the price paid.

All of it (was) avoidable, and due to stubbornness on the energy sanctions, and/or unwillingness of EU leaders to stand up for their own nations' economic interests in discussions with US/Canada.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 14:13 utc | 50

Not all approved 15%, some agreed to a 7% reduction. I doubt they'll actually do it and I don't think there is a way to legally force EU members to shut down their factories "because Putin bad "
Interesting that I don't hear EU to demand Ukr to reopen that pipe they closed. Don't they want to support their cute nazis with fees from transit and get more gas at the same time?

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2022 14:15 utc | 51

There are direct health consequences to unheated homes.

Someone above is suggesting 12 degrees in the bedroom is fine because someone survived that in the 1930s. Either someone slept in a feather bed together with a sleeping cap and a hot water bottle or they had 1930s health and accepted that.

Cutting heat will have health consequences that make covid look like a picnic.

I am all in favor of hot water bottles. Mine is German and if wrapped in a small towel it remains warm for hours. Never leaks. But be serious please. The health consequences from lack of heat are enormous. We are not as tough as our grandparents and great-grandparents were 90 years ago. We do not know the daily practical means for surviving in the cold.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 26 2022 14:41 utc | 52

After so many years of having a comfortable life using cheap energy sources from Russia, now the EU has to ready to reduce that comfort, due to their own Russo-hate.

Only would that 15% reduction enough in this winter? There's still few months before the heating season, and the energy sources might not be enough. The biggest coal producer in Europe, Poland is finding a lack of coal and 300% price hike. What about electricity? Is the EU thinking about blackouts too?

EU is using illegal sanctions against Russia aimed at bringing down Russian economy, so why should Russia wait without retaliation? Why not cut Europe of all the energy resources? And, of all other resources?

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 14:43 utc | 53

You dont know what you are talking about. Posted by: Orgel | Jul 26 2022 13:44 utc | 44

I am long retired and grew up in homes with coal or wood heating. Waking up in a house that was less than 10C was not uncommon.

I recall the "snowflakes" in the office where I worked becoming agitated if the A/C or heat was 2 degrees off of the the thermostat setting. Ditto for people I have lived with.

As for today's outside workers, compared to 100 years ago their life is a picnic. Unless you are working with hazardous materials, does anyone really need a daily hot shower?

When the draconian C**** policies of 2020-21 were rolled out, some of us theorized that the government over-reaction was to condition the population to the hardships of war. Here we are at phase 2 of the conditioning. Best to start thinking about surviving phase 3 or 4 rather than worry about relatively trivial gas rationing.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 26 2022 14:48 utc | 54

@ptb #6.

toldja a week or so ago wld probably go back to the old highs.
Just tested today for first time on the NG...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aYgrNQxc/

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 26 2022 14:53 utc | 55

In the EU...winter 22/23

“Daddy, why is it so cold in our house?”
"Because we have imposed sanctions."
"Why?"
"To make it bad for Russians."
"Daddy, are we Russians?"

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 15:05 utc | 56

@oldhippie #52

Contributing case from Spain: Living alone old woman who could'nt afford electricity dies in fire caused by a a candle. link. Next winter, we might see more people "enjoy" this kind of "bright future" in the EU.

Posted by: OttoE | Jul 26 2022 15:16 utc | 57

Russian Gas Routes to EU

Yamal Europe via Belarus closed by EU/Poland; lost capacity 33 billion m3 per annum

Soyuz closed by UKR lost capacity 30bcm

Brotherhood closed by UKR ; lost capacity 32bcm

NS II pressurised and ready but not even opened by EU/GDR; lost available capacity 55bcm


Total unused potential capacity due to EU/UKR/US actions; 150bcm


NS I, the remaining route was 55 bcm; but now dropping to 20 (?) due to EU sanctions via Siemens


To summarise; the maximum capacity available to EU was originally approx 150bcm. The EU/UKR/US chose themselves to cut this to 55bcm, without even considering
the industrial implications of the punitive sanctions which have left the crucial service contract Siemens/Gazprom high and dry.

Posted by: Lapin | Jul 26 2022 15:17 utc | 58

There may be no heat and no power all winter long, but at least people in the West can choose a different gender which is something Russians can't do.

Posted by: aquileia | Jul 26 2022 15:20 utc | 59

Posted by: aquileia | Jul 26 2022 15:20 utc | 59

"There may be no heat and no power all winter long, but at least people in the West can choose a different gender which is something Russians can't do."

Love it, nice one!

Posted by: GenderBenderBoris | Jul 26 2022 15:27 utc | 60

Re: Hot water bottles

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 26 2022 14:41 utc | 52

Someone above is suggesting 12 degrees in the bedroom is fine because someone survived that in the 1930s.

In the 1930s they also had shared bodily warmth. In today's individualistic society, it seldom exists.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 26 2022 15:30 utc | 61

Hungary does not support the EU agreement on the reduction of gas consumption — AFP

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2022 15:31 utc | 62

And what is the plan for the Kiev regime to heat the homes in the winter? I don't think 'reverse flow' is practical anymore.

Zelensky might head for Miami or an even warmer place further down?

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 26 2022 15:32 utc | 63

Gasoline prices in the EU and the US in July 2022

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 15:35 utc | 64

but at least people in the West can choose a different gender which is something Russians can't do.

Posted by: aquileia | Jul 26 2022 15:20 utc | 59
---------

So, the people in the West have extra sexual organs...😋

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 15:37 utc | 65

Zelensky might head for Miami or an even warmer place further down?

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 26 2022 15:32 utc | 63
--

There's still Aliyah...😏

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 15:39 utc | 66

Putin, Fortum, Uniper and more big lies from MSM

Posted by: Lapin | Jul 26 2022 15:17 utc | 58

To summarise; the maximum capacity available to EU was originally approx 150bcm. The EU/UKR/US chose themselves to cut this to 55bcm, without even considering the industrial implications of the punitive sanctions which have left the crucial service contract Siemens/Gazprom high and dry.

There are also gas pipelines to the Baltics and Finland that are now unused. I wrote this elsewhere a few days ago, in response to an article in the British The Telegraph.

National Grid in emergency bid to pump more gas to Europe

Europe is racing to fill up gas storage sites ahead of winter amid concerns about further cuts in supplies from Russia. Moscow typically supplied about 40pc of Europe’s gas before the war but volumes have fallen since the invasion of Ukraine as the Kremlin retaliates against sanctions by “weaponising” fuel supplies.

This is a BIG LIE from Big Lie Media. Russia has not used its "gas weapon", even though this lie is repeated over and over again in Western media. Russia even denies it has a "gas weapon", or that it ever intends to use supply of fuel as a weapon against Europe.

The only thing Russia has done is demanded it gets paid for its gas. After Europe made it impossible for customers to pay for Russian gas (and stole 300€ billion of Russia's reserves), Russia now demands that payment in Euros for Russian gas is made in a Russia bank, outside of EU jurisdiction.

Concerns over gas supplies have sent prices soaring and Germany was forced into a €16bn (£13.6bn) bail out of energy giant Uniper on Friday after it was crippled by high prices.

Berlin will take a stake of roughly 30pc in Uniper – a holding big enough to give it veto rights on important strategic decisions. Finnish owner Fortum will retain a majority stake.

The package includes an expanded credit line of €9bn from state-owned lender KfW and mandatory convertible securities of €7.7bn. The total package is worth more than four times the company’s current market value.

Uniper, which is Europe’s largest importer of Russian gas, asked for a bailout two weeks ago after it was pushed to the brink by Putin’s supply cuts.

The company’s extensive contracts with Kremlin-controlled Gazprom left it exposed and forced it to cover shortfalls at high prices on the spot market.

The Finnish company Fortum is state-own. It also owns Finland's two Soviet-built (and extremely reliable) nuclear reactors, and had invested billions in the Russian energy market.

The Finnish government did everything it could to make matters worse for Fortum. It demanded that Fortum pull out of its Russian investments, causing billions of losses. They also demanded that the state-owned natural gas grid operator Gasum stop paying for its gas. Finland abandoned its long-term, fixed price contracts with Gasprom and now plans to buy liquefied natural gas from the market, at maybe five times the price.

Cutting the flow of pipe gas from Russia has another effect on Fortum and Finland. The flow of Russian gas is diminished by that amount and the demand for LNG increases by the same amount, driving up the price of LNG and the losses of Uniper.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 26 2022 15:43 utc | 67

12 degrees C in the bedrooms ?

Of course - Featherbeds and little cloth cap on Grandpa‘s head.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 26 2022 15:45 utc | 68

Comment \ 16 by too scents . The Germans must understand the " Pareto Principle " . 80 % of a business turnover comes from 20% of the customers . It is also called the 80/20 rule . Cut off 20 % of your gas supply and crash 80% of your industry . Genius at work . :-) . First time post .

Posted by: hole in head | Jul 26 2022 15:54 utc | 69

The waste heat from a glass factory would be sufficient to keep a small village warm, if you started the project 5 years ago.

https://youtu.be/FlPtBIIpbTI?t=27

Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2022 15:54 utc | 70

@63 "And what is the plan for the Kiev regime to heat the homes in the winter?"

They probably figure they can keep siphoning off gas from the pipelines indefinitely

Posted by: dh | Jul 26 2022 15:58 utc | 71

@55 Scorpion
You were right about that call. But your link is still looking at the North American Henry Hub futures, which have only a limited connection to the global indexes such as TTF or JKM, which are much more tightly connected to each other (and much higher prices).

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 16:02 utc | 72

Petri Krohn | Jul 26 2022 15:43 utc | 67

Do you think that the EU 'elite', VdL or Habeck for example, actually understand what they are doing ?
I think they actually believe their own message but have no background to understand the implications.
They are therefore unable to complete every statement, as they should, with "....this means that...."

Maybe it is viral Dunning-Kruger effect or maybe they are just following orders ?

I note
Berlin will take a stake of roughly 30pc in Uniper – a holding big enough to give it veto rights on important strategic decisions.

But maybe it should be
Berlin will take a stake of roughly 30pc in Uniper – a holding big enough to give Habeck veto rights on important strategic decisions.

Posted by: Lapin | Jul 26 2022 16:04 utc | 73

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 26 2022 14:41 utc | 52

"Someone above is suggesting 12 degrees in the bedroom is fine because someone survived that in the 1930s. Either someone slept in a feather bed together with a sleeping cap and a hot water bottle or they had 1930s health and accepted that. Cutting heat will have health consequences that make covid look like a picnic."

Fair observations but a few little rebuttal points:
1. Lungs: acc to Chinese medicine during sleep the lungs greatly prefer cool, fresh air. So yes, if you have good flannel pyjamas and a feather eiderdown and nice carpets under foot you are better off health-wise with a 12C room than an 18C room. The most potent 'hour of the lung' in that system is from 3-5 AM which is the coldest time of the night.

2. Wood fire cycle: until recently in northern climes houses were heated by fires. The wealthy had servants stoking all night long no doubt but many others built the fire up before retiring and then awoke to a cool house and only embers left in the morning. Even modern back-burning wood stoves - a terrific invention - tend to be very low after about 8 hours unless you buy a huge one that uses far more wood than most are willing to pay for especially in smaller homes. The point being that you can get used to it. I know because I lived for years in an area where many of us used wood stoves and many were quite old. But you have to dress up early in the AM until the house heats up again, that's all. What I did was sleep in long underwear and kept them on underneath the day clothes until the house warmed up and only then would change for the day.

3. Bad design today, bad air is a problem: today's over-heated and over-air-conditioned and over-insulated and under-ventilated (breathing) homes create no end of chronic weaknesses. And going back to #1 about the lungs: sleeping in overheated underventilated rooms is simply not healthy.

4. Last and not least about cold: the cold is not necessarily so bad if you dress for it, it's rapid temperature change that gets you, the sort of change that happens when you enter a warm building after being outside in sub-freezing air for a while. The first front in the immune system protecting against externally sourced pathogens is in the lungs and its anti-pathogenic resistance capabilities are flummoxed by rapid temperature changes - basically it takes a few minutes for it to adjust. In those few minutes entering pathogens can get cosy in areas the immune system finds hard to reach - or is simply too late. I believe the worst change is from very cold to hot because hot air tends to have more nasties whereas very cold air has very little. So it's not the cold that is the problem per se - again unless you are under-dressed - it's the rapid transition from cold to hot especially in the lungs. (So if you are walking around in Chicago in January, a good idea to wear a mask or scarf to heat the air up a little before inhaling so that when you enter Marshall's balmy interiors fresh off those -20C streets you don't have a temporarily incapacitated immune system in the lungs.)

Interesting how the old Germans knew to keep the bedroom cooler than the living rooms, though quite likely it was simply because the kachelofen was downstairs and the bedrooms upstairs and even with floor vents it just wasn't as warm upstairs as downstairs.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 26 2022 16:06 utc | 74

@63 "And what is the plan for the Kiev regime to heat the homes in the winter?"

They probably figure they can keep siphoning off gas from the pipelines indefinitely

Posted by: dh | Jul 26 2022 15:58 utc | 71

Ukraine is asking USA to send LNG on a lend-lease basis.

Ukraine asks US for "gas lend-lease" — PM Shmyhal

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 26 2022 16:07 utc | 75

In response to Ric G@36,

NS2 is already in use for moving gas within Russia. I also don't expect the turbines to be compatible, at least not without major readjustments. My impression is that using Siemens to furbish the pumping station of NS1 was either contractual wheel-grease to make building NS1 more lucrative to the Germans, since it's a substantial kickback from gas-profits, or it was necessitated by EU anti-monopoly legislation. Either way, it's plausible that Germany itself demanded such a configuration from the onset, and one would expect there to be contractual obligations for Siemens to retain proprietary rights to their niche within the pump infrastructure, with the exception being safety related concerns which would naturally fall within Russian legislature. If that's the case, replacing the turbines would be a breach of contract. By contrast, NS2 uses domestically developed parts.

I'm just speculating based on what I know, since I can't look this stuff up at present and I'm not sure if these sort of technical details warrant actual research in the first place. But, suffice to say that ownership of NS1 is split between a Gazprom controlling share and German, Dutch and French companies, while NS2 is wholly owned by Gazprom, which no doubt influenced the initial development and continues to influence operational development.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jul 26 2022 16:16 utc | 76

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 16:02 utc | 72

Sorry about that NG. I don't follow those markets but with my chart service the TTF or JKM contracts have almost no volume so I presume they are not on the same exchanges you are referencing. Anyway...

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 26 2022 16:18 utc | 77

Interesting how the old Germans knew to keep the bedroom cooler than the living rooms, though quite likely it was simply because the kachelofen was downstairs and the bedrooms upstairs and even with floor vents it just wasn't as warm upstairs as downstairs.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 26 2022 16:06 utc | 74

Between the ages of 4 and 8 I lived in a two_story house in upstate New York farm country, which was heated by a coal furnace. Parts of the house were closed off. The heat was in the working areas. We slept upstairs is rooms in the 40s, i.e around 10C. We slept in pairs or trios, I remember some interesting nights with girl cousins. Getting into bed was exciting until you got the sheets warmed up. Struggles over posession of the covers were common. In general we all remembered this as an idyllic time, although I know my father hated it. Cold weather imposes some limitations, but it can be dealt with just fine.

I have been backpacking in winter storms in my 60s, and enjoyed it enough to do it again. Now in my late 70s I would be quite reluctant.

The situation is different with the old and ill, who don't have such good internal heaters.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 26 2022 16:18 utc | 78

@opportknox

If you had an oven for wood (as may parents for example still have, build in 1911) not only for heating but cooking as well, You had for sure 1 romm in which it had somewhere between 25 and 30 celsius.

I do not disagree with your assessement of a snowflake generation. What i do disagree with is all else.

It does make a mature difference if your heating is in your own hands, or generalized. It does make a huge difference when you can chop in another piece of wood or coal if needed or you cant.
It does make a huge difference if you can just sit close to an oven for a while when you are really cold or sick or if everything you can get is 18 d celsius.

It is a massive difference between a world in which 3 generations live under the same roof and take care of each other, and a world in which 80 year olds live alone in an appartment in a city.

It is a major difference when you can cook up water because you have an oven or you cant.

All this stuff aside. In the modern world, you will effectively need MORE energy when 100 people work from home than 100 people sitting in an office building or working in a fabric. (I am just mentioning it, because ourgreat leaders already are dreaming of lockdowns again.

I am certain that we will not only deal with less heating but also electricity shortages.

Sorry, but if your attitude is "we can deal with it because we dealt with it a 100 years ago" when exactly do you get angry at these people? Never. You will accept everything.

Posted by: Orgel | Jul 26 2022 16:24 utc | 79

Re: Siemens turbines

The problem with the Siemens SGT-A35 gas turbine is that it is actually an industrialized Rolls-Royce RB211 aircraft engine, produced by a British company. RWG, the company servicing SGT-A35 units in Europe is also located in the United Kingdom.

It is interesting, that Rolls-Royce was one of the companies that provided turbines to the original natural gas pipelines in Ukraine in the 1980s and was as a result sanctioned by the United States. At that time Europeans could still defy the US.

Question: Why does Gazprom not use the turbines for Nord Stream 2 to push gas into the Nord Stream 1 pipes?

Answer: The landing points for NS1 and NS2 in Russia are different. NS1 starts from the northern side of the Gulf of Finland while the landing point for NS2 is opposite it on the southern side of the gulf. The pipes are not interconnected. In Germany both pipelines end at the same terminal.

Question: Why cannot Gazprom just steal turbines from other unused pipelines?

Answer: If this was a real emergency and both parties honestly wanted the pipeline to operate, then maybe they would do that. At present I do not think Gazprom will take steps beyond those that will enable it to declare force majeure.

Besides, doing any kind of jerry rigging to the pipeline might invalidate its certification, and force Germany to stop accepting gas.

Question: Why does Gazprom make all this fuzz about paperwork for the turbine?

Answer: To reach Russia, the turbine would need to pass through Finland. I suspect the Finn could stop the turbine, if they could invent any excuse to do so. (Finland has already confiscated 1000 Russian railway cars.)

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 26 2022 16:26 utc | 80

I believe that I see the the rationale in Bojo's odd behavior leading up to political demise.
The CIA/MIA were using the nazi groups to control politics in Ukraine.
They are needed an were promised a chance/support to fight Russia. Being insane and ignorant and extreme (making them most useful), they did not want to hear talk of negotiated settlement under adverse terms.
So Johnson had to play along - play the fool. To keep them on side.
So nazi grunts were thrown to meat grinder, letting Russia do the dirty work. I am sure nazi leaders are busy send money to of shore accounts and arranging travel.
Now that the game is nearing end, leaves Zelensky in the lurch (notsure what that is) - he can be wisked-off or fed to pigs.

Posted by: jared | Jul 26 2022 16:30 utc | 81

paul greenwood.... thanks for your commentary...

@ Summary26072022 | Jul 26 2022 10:17 utc | 20

thanks for the update...

old hippie / @ Scorpion | Jul 26 2022 16:06 utc | 74

i agree with scorpions observations.. thanks for articulating all that..

Posted by: james | Jul 26 2022 16:37 utc | 82

Scorpion @ 74

Your theories are about to be put to the test. Get back to me in 6 months.

If humans were not good at adapting we would all live in the tropics and be a very minor species. I am all in favor of HTFU. If you think large parts of the current population are going to figure this one out with no fuss you are dreaming.

Forty years ago I built a number of houses and refitted millions of square feet of commercial space so that they became what German campaigners would call passivhaus. Except vastly simpler than what passivhaus ideologs propose. These were built to just work, owner needed to do nothing. Most owners have completely sabotaged the system. No one understands first principles of thermodynamics and resist all efforts to show them. Most of the commercial/industrial has been torn down after owners attempted to fix what wasn't broken.

One block south of me is a 1928 home that is close to a passivhaus and darn near a museum. It needs to be operated, owner needs to do basic stuff like opening and closing doors and windows. In a sensible way. 1928 frame house in what Americans call Dutch Colonial style, 2 floors, basement, attic. Owner is often out of town in winter, no heat, it does not go below 13 degrees inside. This is with single glazed double hung windows and comical remnants of rock wool insulation. (No it is not asbestos) In summer it never goes above 26 or 27. I know grandson of original builder, he is an emeritus professor of civil engineering at MIT. And long ago gave up trying to explain how old buildings work. He is astonished that owner and caretaker (me) still know how to operate his grandfathers house. No one wants to know these things.

In new construction I am seeing HVAC systems operated by bluetooth and smartphone. The resiliency of these systems is zero.

About 2 decades back I worked in the home of the leading local political Green. Massive place, 8000 sq. ft. One project was fixing the ceiling of a spare bedroom that kept getting wet. Problem was a 4' x 8' section of roof was completely missing. In mild rain or snow the huge draft of what amounted to a chimney kept the precip out. In a storm the rain came in and bye bye sheetrock. Drafty in that house too. I told the customer and she asks "Do you think we need to fix that?" I drive or ride by occasionally and twenty years later the hole in roof is still there.

Notions people have about health are as sensible as that homeowners notions about roofing.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 26 2022 16:53 utc | 83

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 26 2022 16:53 utc | 83

Yeah. I have long reached the conclusion the way we build housing here is mainly about costing lots of money and creating lots of construction jobs.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 26 2022 17:04 utc | 84

Does no one sleep with cats under the covers?

Posted by: zakukommander | Jul 26 2022 17:05 utc | 85

Old Hippie,

It amazes me that very few people understand the basics of keeping a house comfortable by using the natural daily cycle.

Simple things like opening windows slightly at night in the summer to bring the cool night air into the house is considered unimaginable genius these days

Posted by: Exile | Jul 26 2022 17:10 utc | 86

Does no one sleep with cats under the covers?
@zakukommander | Jul 26 2022 17:05 utc | 85

---

It used to be common in farming villages that the farmer's dwelling was built together with the stall (the hay storage being directly above) so that heat from the animals was captured in the house. The animals were pastured in Summer and brought indoors for the Winter months.

My in-laws lived this way until their new separate barn was built in the early '80s.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2022 17:16 utc | 87

someone may have posted this already but i know russia/israel relations are a "hot topic" among this crowd so:

https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2022/07/26/ukraine-war-day-153-wither-concluded/

the previous installments are also worth reading and he lays out a well reasoned argument for russia finally growing a pair (no relation) with "israel".

Posted by: the pair | Jul 26 2022 17:17 utc | 88

Cat food powered foot warmers are definitely the way to go. They auto-regulate, positioning themselves under the blankets when room temperatures are low and repurposing for snake disposal when temperatures rise. They are quite handy to have around.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 26 2022 17:18 utc | 89

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 26 2022 16:53 utc | 83

"Notions people have about health are as sensible as that homeowners notions about roofing."

Thanks for that terrific post. I'd noticed that many old homes in Cape Breton seemed to be surprisingly comfortable but didn't have the insight to appreciate that this was deliberate and that the house must be 'managed.' I'm in Mexico now where it is often too hot during the day and too cool at night and we don't use a heating or cooling system so I find myself 'managing' when to open and close doors and windows.

Anyway, wacky as it may sound, that business about rapid temperature change affect lung's ability to repel borders is, although not well known, almost certainly accurate. I haven't read about such stuff in decades so have no quotes handy but still. Good luck with your Brave New World adventure this winter!

PS. I DO agree with your thrust that many are going to seriously suffer with all this and didn't mean for my reply to seem to reject that thrust. Older people, people in large cities, immune-compromised and so forth - especially given how modern housing is really lousy without all systems working. Just offering a few little addenda.

Perhaps this is off topic but it looks like large parts of Europe and North America are going to be saying to themselves this winter: 'we are all Ukrainians now!'

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 26 2022 17:41 utc | 90

@83 oldhippie

In new construction I am seeing HVAC systems operated by bluetooth and smartphone.

Yes, the folly of this amazes me. Universally common building systems are getting into the 2nd level of the "disposable" age - not only non-repairable, but likely to get thrown out even before the hardware wears out. Because of the inevitable obsolescence of the software. And that in turn takes away what little incentive is left to use materials or designs that last. Plumbers / HVAC people around here are making a killing though, since both the amount and complexity of work skyrockets.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 18:18 utc | 91

British Journalist Graham Phillips Added To UK SANCTIONS LIST

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2rsIP2P8-8

Posted by: farm ecologist | Jul 26 2022 18:33 utc | 92

Old hippie -

…. In a sensible way. 1928 frame house in what Americans call Dutch Colonial style, 2 floors, basement, attic. Owner is often out of town in winter, no heat, it does not go below 13 degrees inside. This is with single glazed double hung windows…..

This is fascinating - please elaborate

Posted by: Exile | Jul 26 2022 19:00 utc | 93

@63 Norwegian

And what is the plan for the Kiev regime to heat the homes in the winter?

Timely question. Naftogaz was unable to make payment on Eurobonds today.

Bloomberg reports:

Ukraine’s state-owned energy company said it’s on track to default on its foreign bonds after the government issued a decree last week compelling it to pursue a debt moratorium that creditors have so far rejected.

A grace period for NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy to redeem $335 million of international bonds is due to expire on Tuesday. Without the consent of bondholders for a moratorium, or permission from the government for Naftogaz to make the payment, the missed transfer could trigger a cross default event on at least $1.4 billion of its foreign notes.

“It is acknowledged that certain Events of Default have or will occur as a result of the Resolution and the resulting failure to pay,” the company said in a statement, referring to the Kyiv government’s decree on Friday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-26/naftogaz-says-default-is-inevitable-after-it-missed-payments

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 19:05 utc | 94

something unclear happened 15 minutes ago, and EU natgas jumped another 7.5%, TTF Dec2022 contract now €215/MWh, up 20% for the day!

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 19:11 utc | 95

Question: Why cannot Gazprom just steal turbines from other unused pipelines?

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 26 2022 16:26 utc | 80
---------

Are you sure you know the answer to that question?

As Gazprom owns all the pipelines, pumping stations, gas factories etc, it can interchange whatever it wants, if/when it wants. But, why should it wants to do something to help Germany, or the EU? They placed sanctions against Russia to bring down the Russian economy, so why not reciprocate?

If the unfriendlies' citizens suffer without (enough) heating, without gas for cooking, with ever rising prices, with probable blackouts, won't that be alright? They backed their governments against Russia, didn't they?

Gazprom, after all, is a weapon! 😃

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 19:18 utc | 96

@95 myself - correction to above, time was 15 minutes before end of trading session. this timing for a bump is not uncommon.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 26 2022 19:26 utc | 97

Looks like Putin sabotaged the UK leadership debate...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62313261

Posted by: dh | Jul 26 2022 19:30 utc | 98

European gas prices have surged 30 per cent in two days after Russia deepened supply cuts to the continent in Moscow’s latest attempt to weaponise energy supplies.

Futures contracts for delivery next month tied to TTF, the European benchmark wholesale gas price, jumped 20 per cent on Tuesday to breach €210 per megawatt hour, the highest level since early March, a day after Russia warned of lighter flows on the largest pipeline supplying the region. Prices are more than 10 times higher than the average between 2010 and 2020.

FT whines...

Funny wordshit...Moscow’s latest attempt to weaponise energy supplies. As though the fools don't know that energy is a weapon!

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 19:42 utc | 99

Gas prices over $ 2,200 per thousand cubic meter, amid sanctions
The spot price of gas in Europe continues to rise sharply on Wednesday afternoon – already by 57% compared to Tuesday’s close.

Gas prices of the nearest (April) futures on the TTF hub reached $2,227 per thousand cubic meter, while on Tuesday trading ended at $1,418, according to data from the ICE Futures exchange.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 26 2022 19:52 utc | 100

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