Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 06, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-104

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on July 6, 2022 at 15:39 UTC | Permalink

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am Eye the 1st?
Hope you are well Bernhard!
I am Bernard, also known as BurnEye Minds3rdEye ScienceGuy on youtube.

May the Donbas finally be freed,and the NovaRussia dream be Realized!

Posted by: BurnEye Minds3rdEye | Jul 6 2022 15:46 utc | 1

B, what's your sense of the mood of public opinion in Germany regarding support for Ukraine?

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Jul 6 2022 15:47 utc | 2

Here's some copium from NATO enthusiast Tom Cooper. The latest "victory" they're celebrating apparently is "500 Russian casualties" from a HIMARS strike. Most likely they're confusing the Russian casualty codes (Cargo 200 for wounded, Cargo 300 for dead) as numerical quantities.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-4-5-july-2022-ff80338be560

Posted by: Ian Kummer | Jul 6 2022 16:02 utc | 3

Don't try this at home...

https://t.me/rybar/35055

Posted by: ptb | Jul 6 2022 16:30 utc | 4

Russia should immediately cut off all oil and gas exports to countries(EU/UK)who have been shipping weapons to the UkroNazis, also demand the return of Russia's stolen foreign reserves.

Posted by: Hannibal | Jul 6 2022 16:35 utc | 5

Hannibal-11:
I suspect that the RF and the energy companies are savoring the increased profit from the very entities that are sanctioning them, whilst securing other customer bases. They also appear to not want to seem overly draconian and inconsiderate of the common people in the EU no matter how brainwashed they may be. There is an advantage to giving people half a dozen chances, being very clear and open about it and THEN bringing the hammer down after a final warning.
@Cunctator: You warmongering death fetish is duly noted.

Posted by: Chevrus | Jul 6 2022 16:39 utc | 6

In regard to the heavily indoctrinated people, its a tough row to hoe. They have been meticulously prepared and manipulated to reject anything counter to the narrative they were seeded with. And like most neophobes they will strike out against anyone who rocks that boat. There are ways to creatively build up an informational custom tailored to a given user, but it is time consuming and exhausting. Plus I am not being paid $100 an hour to do it, so the expression ‘you caint afford me’ comes to mind.

Posted by: Chevrus | Jul 6 2022 16:44 utc | 7

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

i think b said that at the top..

Posted by: james | Jul 6 2022 16:48 utc | 8

It's like in covid time. There were people ready to hit you with something if you asked any question or complained about anything. The same thing happens now with Ukr. These people are truly morons, they don't want to think, they only want to be part of something, some group.
Now we have the Russian haters club. Or the Eco people who can't explain to you where are they going to get the electricity from, to charge the electric cars they love, if gas/oil/nuclear must be banned. Or where is the battery disposed when dead? Because it's Africa and that isn't eco at all.

Posted by: rk | Jul 6 2022 16:59 utc | 9

Who are all these Americans suddenly dictating the narrative or off narrative tag-team here?

Are you even entitled to an opinion after decades of looking on while the governments you voted in raped the planet.

Looking forward to the Evil Empire's demise.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jul 6 2022 17:02 utc | 10

Nice move:

https://t.me/azmilitary11/9638

Methinks this is a rather large nail in the coffin regarding the EU.

Posted by: IvanTheNotSoTerrible | Jul 6 2022 17:07 utc | 11

william gruff left a post at the end of the previous ukraine thread that is worth repeating... i agree with him on this...

"Concerning nukes...

Here's the problem: the neolibcons and strategists for the Empire of Delusions are convinced with 100% absolute certainty that the Russians will fold before using nukes. After all, the Soviet Union gave in to the Empire with nothing more than a whimper when Ronbo Raygun leaned on them, didn't they? And the Russian Federation is barely a pale shadow of the Soviet Union, so how could the Russians withstand what the Soviets could not? It is canon among the exceptionalist neolibcons that Russia will eventually capitulate if the Empire just escalates far enough. Russians still being obstinate? Then the Empire just hasn't escalated enough yet, they believe.

"Sweet!" the unicorn cries, "To avoid nuke war the Russians just have to not use nukes!"

Wrong.

Nukes absolutely are on the Empire's escalation ladder. Unless the Russians capitulate before then the Empire of Delusions will guaranteed use nukes against them. The only thing that can prevent this is some sort of black swan event that breaks the Empire's escalation rhythm.

One can try to argue that perhaps the bottom will fall out of the Empire's economy before they get to the nukes. Know, however, that the pacing of the Empire's escalation is determined by the state of their economy. The worse the western economy becomes the faster the escalation, so there is no salvation to be found in that direction.

The neolibcon strategists for the Empire of Delusions are certain they can use nukes without the Russians matching their escalation. After all, the Russians are not exceptional. They are just a gas station, right? When all is said and done the Russians will gladly kneel at the Empire's feet just like Britain, France and Germany... or so they believe.

So how to avoid what seems inevitable? Revolution in the US would be nice and would set things right tout de suite, but I'll not hold my breath for that. To break the rhythm of the exceptionalist neolibcons' escalation march you need to break their exceptionalism delusion. No matter how you slice it the event that causes that break will by necessity be enormous and shocking. We're talking "enormous" on the scale of the Chinese sinking the entire US 7th Fleet, or every NATO base in Europe getting a tactical nuke strike all at the same time.

Pretending that using nukes is unthinkable is foolish as the US has already used them and is already psychologically primed to use them again.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 6 2022 14:55 utc | 343"

Posted by: james | Jul 6 2022 17:23 utc | 12

Ritter posted a piece on disfunction of HATO and attempts to resurect itself and the development of the current situation in Ukraine.
What he doesnt touch on sufficiently (because I believe he is bright enough and open minded enough to do so) is that this kind of disaster is highly likely when government steps in to fix things.
1) The US State/CIA saw oportunity to turn Ukraine in our favor - conceptually good for Ukraines and good for US.
2) As things developed we decided to facilitate things by getting a President elected who was more receptive and reliable (claiming that after all the guy in office was backward and corrupt). Resulting in atrocities and loss of teritory - nobody could have known.
3) The guy we selected (bit of a red flag) was a flop. So naturally we double down by replacing our guy with a new improved guy who was proposing agendas that did not really work for us (peace with Russia). Problem is we selected a new leader and inserted in same disfunctional environment - we fail to address (in fact fostered) Ukraines nazi problem. But afterall this is how the CIA functions create opposing forces and use one to police other.
4) Then things were looking up for Ukraine and some parts of US gov felt success but other (clandestine) parts did not quite agree with the agenda - so they undermined it.
5) Ive left the neoliberal insterest out so far - they are of course operating in backgrough to collect the scraps that will be left of Ukraine.
6) The you have US filitary is failing in Afganistan and fear prospects of humiliation and budget cuts.
7) Then there is NATO becoming increasingly irrelevant.
8) Then there is US/European economies sinking in debt and needing Russias resources (because whatever then owners have, the existence of competitors is threating and it would be better if they have more - grow or die.
9) Now we have the rump state of the formerly United Kingdom advising Ukraine not to seek settlement - or actually seeking settlement for put Presidents life (re. nazi problem) and income in jeapardy. Meanwhile the Ukraine people are deluded to believe they are winning while they are dying in large numbers and jobs losts and aid being diverted to pockets of keyplaers.

The thing that bugs me, I am novice in area of international relaitions and dont read a lot (partly because most written word is b/s) so why can I provide reasonable overview while Ritter, Mearshimer, Cholmsky et al are making videos that miss the point - leave much unsaid. Even Greenwald and Mate, where are they on this. Only Stategic-Culture goes there but they can be a bit loopy at times. It has to be seen in perspective - 100 years of US and owners medling.

Posted by: jared | Jul 6 2022 17:32 utc | 13

@ll

I deleted a bunch of off topic comments.

Posted by: b | Jul 6 2022 17:37 utc | 14

Posted by: Sideshow Bob | Jul 6 2022 17:16 utc | 18

It's not Ukraine but has a lot to do with it.
Hopefully Europeans will wake up and start doing something, the key is Germany, if only that coalition would fall. There is talk of "temporarily" opening NS2 by some Ernst, a German minister, answering to him Pushkov with irony suggests that the Germans think that it only depends on them. There you go, say uncle as RayGun asked the Sandinistas, and then we'll see. Something has to give in Europe, otherwise we're in dire straits. Another curious headline, France to nationalize a power company, incredible with Macron as president.

Posted by: Paco | Jul 6 2022 17:38 utc | 15

Link

Posted by: alfeu* | Jul 6 2022 17:39 utc | 16

@james 12

I am optimistic. While our ruling class is deranged enough to use Nukes, it would require them to be more than utterly spineless cowards.

Posted by: Turk 12 | Jul 6 2022 18:06 utc | 17

from Oskar Lafontaine in Germany:

Open Nord Stream 2!
I can no longer hear the whining of Steinmeier, Scholz and others about the social upheavals that will occur if the price of gas triples. If you can only buy energy from states like the USA, Saudi Arabia or Qatar, and Russia, which you accuse of waging wars in violation of international law, then you should prefer the supplier that has the best and cheapest goods. That is Russia. It is also becoming increasingly clear that the German economy is closely intertwined with Russia for many other necessary raw materials and spare parts as well.
It cannot be repeated often enough: If you cut ties with a country because of human rights violations, then you can't trade with the U.S., which is responsible for most of the human rights violations in the world.
It was really embarrassing to watch Biden make it abundantly clear to Scholz at the press conference in Washington who determines whether the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline goes into operation or not.
When will there be a German chancellor who has the courage to tell Washington this far and no further. Where does this German addiction to submission come from, seeing how German journalists and politicians behave toward Washington?
If you think about your own population, there is only one solution: open Nord Stream 2 to prevent the worst. De Gaulle still knew, states do not have friends, but interests. Just as the Yanks have been trying for 100 years to prevent German technology from merging with Russian raw materials (George Friedman), the German government should finally realize that the sanctions do not harm Russia and the USA, but primarily Germany and Europe.
The German government and the German media can no longer deny what the renowned U.S. economist Jeffrey Sachs recently wrote again in their notebooks: "The war in Ukraine is the culmination of a 30-year project of the American neoconservative movement (neocons). The Biden administration includes the same neoconservatives who championed U.S. wars in Serbia (1999), Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Syria (2011), and Libya (2011), and who provoked Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the first place."
When you've made a big mistake, you have to have the courage to correct it. No federal government has the right to make millions of Germans poorer and to ruin the German economy.
(DeepL translation from German)

Posted by: rmmml | Jul 6 2022 18:11 utc | 18

There is talk of "temporarily" opening NS2 by some Ernst, a German minister

Posted by: Paco | Jul 6 2022 17:38 utc | 15

That's Klaus Ernst, a politician of the party "Die Linke", but not a minister.
However, he is part of a fraction of "Die Linke" who usually have reasonable stances regarding Russia and NATO. Othe politicians who belong to that group are e.g. Oskar Lafontaine and Sarah Wagenknecht.

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Jul 6 2022 18:20 utc | 19

Maria Zakharova asks

Do you think that if Boris Johnson was (a woman ) a man, would he leave?

Posted by: ostro | Jul 6 2022 18:41 utc | 20

@b, #14:

Understood your act, and agree that such should be done to counter the non-conformers. But would you consider making changes in your blog software such that even when you delete posts, the blog doesn't rearrange numbering of posted comments? The end result would be holes in the numbering system, but us barflies would understand why. This way, subsequent comments in response to previous comments would retain their relevance and readers can refer back and forth to make sense of the course of discussions.

Just a suggestion. Thanks to you for my enjoyment in reading your blog.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jul 6 2022 18:53 utc | 21

As a German, I am at a loss at the moment. Someone is trying to put out the light with a hammer, to implement the Morgenthau Plan 70 years too late. But the majority of people think that if I am good, bury my head in the sand and think of nothing bad, it will pass us by and hit somewhere else.
Expressing a dissenting opinion on the Ukraine war has become something of an outrage among the majority. One instinctively knows "you don't do that!" and keeps one's mouth shut. With Covid-19, the delusion is slowly dissolving, but not yet with Ukraine. It is important to know that the majority of Germans are not familiar with the history of the conflict. Hardly anyone knows that the guarantors of Minsk were Germany and France.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jul 6 2022 18:58 utc | 22

Kharkov. sad moments, 6th July few minutes ago...https://youtu.be/EDiWPnKkkEY

Posted by: ostro | Jul 6 2022 19:06 utc | 23

@18 grmmml

The answer is easy. The one who did was schröder. Do you remember when chirac and schröder refused to be part of the "coalition of the willing" in iraq 2003 and suggested an power axis berlin-paris-moscow?

Well, good luck finding that again.

The truth is: there cant be a politician who sides with the people against the oöigarchs in the current system.

If there is hope its you. Nobody else will come to rescue.

Posted by: Orgel | Jul 6 2022 19:10 utc | 24

I m a casual visitor to this bar, come a few days a week for couple of hours of catching up with real journalism of today's world to learn a thing or two, while marveling the breadths and depths of some truly knowledgeable (and dedicated) commenters who frequent this bar. This Ukraine SMO coverage here has been fantastic!!!. But the best part I got out of following events here at MOA is the fact that, for once, it is now clear the Empire can't have its ways no more!!!. We are already in a multipolar world, one in which checks and balances have to be observed by all participants, or be punished. This is the kind of world I dreamed to see. And apparently it is evolving before my time is up. I'm grateful to have lived long enough for this dawning.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jul 6 2022 19:11 utc | 25

@ Turk 12 | Jul 6 2022 18:06 utc | 17

i am on the fence myself.... i see the use of nukes by deranged people as possible... i wish i saw this different..

@ Oriental Voice | Jul 6 2022 18:53 utc | 21

one obvious resolution to this is to use the time stamp as i have done above... that way if the numbers change, the time stamp remains the same..

Posted by: james | Jul 6 2022 19:12 utc | 26

Don't know how to reply, apologies. This is to Ian Kummer comment about cargo 200 and 300. Ian, it's the other way around, 200 is for dead, 300 for wounded.

Posted by: Gena Krolodil | Jul 6 2022 19:15 utc | 27

"...It cannot be repeated often enough: If you cut ties with a country because of human rights violations, then you can't trade with the U.S., which is responsible for most of the human rights violations in the world..."
Lafontaine.
It could hardly be clearer. After Oskar, Die Linke went nuts, committed suicide and opened the way for the Greens and the ungreen fascists.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 6 2022 19:19 utc | 28

The CIA shills seem really bothered by the way posts are formatted here. Is it breaking their trolling software?

Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Jul 6 2022 19:26 utc | 29

More silliness in the western media.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-pushes-wave-repression-home-142530746.html

While (grudgingly) accepting that Putin and the Ukraine operation have the support of the majority of those polled, they blame it on the plebes (w/ allusions to the Soviet State):

Survey data show Russians broadly back censorship and other restrictions amid the war, said Denis Volkov, head of the Levada Center, an independent pollster that has itself been designated as a “foreign agent” by Russian authorities.

“The basis of support is the unmodernized conservative views of the poor segments of society who depend on the state,” he said. While backing for Putin is up, support for the war has slipped a bit since the spring, according to Volkov.

So let me get this straight. Western 'journalists' complain that sanctions against (mainly) rich Russians aren't hitting the right target (i.e., the common person - voters) and aren't causing enough economic pain to force change. Their contempt for the welfare state (in any country) and the poor comes through loud and clear as does the contempt for "unmodernized conservatives" (IMO the "deplorables" version of holdover supporters of the USSR - filthy commies).

And last time I checked the Levada Center IS a foreign agent w/ major support from Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs. Duh. Or is there a city called Chicago in Russia?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 6 2022 19:30 utc | 30

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Jul 6 2022 18:20 utc | 19

I read it too quickly, Klaus Ernst is the head of the Bundestag Committee for Energy according to the article, took him for a minister.

But even being Linke, the reaction has been it is our tube and after all the lost love we have a say in the relation, don't we?

Сенатор Алексей Пушков удивлен заявлением главы комитета бундестага по энергетике Клауса Эрнста.

Posted by: Paco | Jul 6 2022 19:34 utc | 31

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 6 2022 19:30 utc | 30

There is a Chicago in Seville Spain, with the masters of agropop as the style was called.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HioljD5AtA0

Enjoy it Oldhippie.

Posted by: Paco | Jul 6 2022 19:41 utc | 32

ostro @23

Yes, it is sad what is happening to Kharkov, but it is no secret that it will get shelled if the Nazis hide there. I realize that Nazis are scary and dangerous, but steel rain from artillery is kinda scary and dangerous too. One would think the locals would consider trying to save their city by demanding the Nazis leave town.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 6 2022 19:42 utc | 33

Re: EU gas situation & possible RF cutoff. EU total storage is about 100 Bcm. Presently it is about half full (48%). Storage I must be near full as the EU needs the majority to get thru winter.
On the supply side, EU was getting 12 Bcm/month from RF at end 2020. At beginning 2021 significant LNG imports start. About 2 Bcm/month thru to December at which point imports jump to nearly 5 Bcm/month, (which may be a maximum given the global supply tightness). RF imports declined more or less equally to the increasing LNG supply. So there has been no net gain in the total monthly supply over the last 18 months. The NS1 has been scheduled for shutdown and maintenance on July 10 (4days!). After that, for the duration of the shutdown the EU will have a net deficit of 7 Bcm/month. If it comes from storage they might have 6 months before things get really dark and cold!
That’s right no worry all the work will be done in 10 days and back to “normal”. Hmmm... maybe not?

Posted by: JeffX | Jul 6 2022 19:44 utc | 34

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jul 6 2022 18:53 utc | 21

Deletions do cause that problem. I and others, have made your same suggestion numerous times. To no avail.

There is no reason that I can see for the post numbers. Can anyone provide a reason for them?

Eliminating the post numbers is the best solution.

Then everyone, even newbies, will be forced to use the time stamp.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jul 6 2022 19:46 utc | 35

Humanitarian Food Box, contents, Kharkov today, https://youtu.be/1m_LHPtXdPE

Posted by: ostro | Jul 6 2022 19:47 utc | 36

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 6 2022 19:42 utc | 33
--------------------------------------------
She is/was the most positive person, I saw from Kharkov (YT, of course), but today she went very sad. I've been following her vids daily and been pasting some here too. They all speak Russian.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 6 2022 19:49 utc | 37

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Jul 6 2022 15:47 utc | 2
I think this one is about right:


Kiev must make concessions for the sake of ending the conflict.

The corresponding opinion was expressed by half of the survey participants conducted by RTL.
47% of Germans advocate that Kiev should give up part of its territory.
41% of respondents believe that this is not a solution to the conflict.

The rest refused to answer the question or do not have a clear position.
Another 69% of respondents do not believe in the APU's ability to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.
German public opinion is gradually moving away from supporting Ukraine. Earlier, German scientists opposed helping Kiev, as "it only delays the conflict."

Although I see people in my bubble admitting in a conspiracy-like tone that there is a lot going wrong in Ukraine, it is still a "career-limiting move" to say that Russia has a valid motive and Putin is acting in an absolute rational way.

Posted by: TomD | Jul 6 2022 19:57 utc | 38

In other news. Russia has destroyed two HIMARS' plus munitions.

link: https://www.rt.com/russia/558482-himars-destroyed-russia-donbass/

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 6 2022 19:57 utc | 39

Escalation Paths

There has been some talk of ZATO escalation to the use of nukes. I think this to be unlikely except for full-on peremptory decapitation strike. This would utilize the full weight of US resources. The US may act alone and not seek to discuss the issue with other ZATO partners. There exist two significant problems.

First, the RF is known to have a "dead man" system in place. This system constantly monitors RF territory for sign of a nuclear attack. If one is detected then the system automatically initiates the launch of any surviving weapons. Exactly what parameters this system operates under is not known. If the US fails to neutralize all RF missiles there will be an automatic counterstrike. The throw weight of this counterstrike will be unknown until it occurs.

Second, is the problem of "leakers." No ABM defence system gives 100% perfection. There will always be "leakers," enemy missiles which penetrate the defence. This also applies to the RF which has the most advanced ABM defences in the currently deploying S-500. Any attacker must accept the loss of some possibly significant assets. Exactly how many, and which ones, will be unknown until the day of attack.

I would be more concerned over a non-nuclear escalation. The US, and other western states are engaging in actions which constitute acts of war. The imposition of sanctions and blockade, the supply of war materials and assistance to 404, the use of western special forces to assist the 404 military, the provision of intelligence and targeting data to 404, all of these events increase the change of a RF response.

I would not be surprised if the RF were to destroy a US intelligence aircraft over the Black Sea. There would cat calls over the exact position of the shoot down, the intent of the aircraft, etc. In the past the Soviets shot down KAL007 as it was believed to be on an intelligence mission over Soviet territory, the Chinese took action against a US intelligence aircraft in the area of Hainan. During the Cold War the American's lost a number of ELINT and photo intelligence flights including that piloted by Gary Powers. The US did not publicize these flights or the loss or aircraft and crew (except for the Powers U2 flight where the US believed Powers to be dead until the Soviets put him on display).

The RF also has available hypersonic weapons against which the US has not defence. These do not even need a warhead. The kinetic energy of impact is significant. There exist a great many US assets which could be vaporized without much problem. Would the US respond with a full on nuke strike? I think this unlikely. More likely the US would release news of a "boiler explosion," a dockside fire, or "hitting an uncharted sea mount."

Posted by: Sushi | Jul 6 2022 20:01 utc | 40

In other news. Two used M142s' were destroyed. Including the spare munitions as well.

Two down. Two to go.........

Truth is stranger than fiction

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 6 2022 20:05 utc | 41

How is it possible that there is no resistance in EU against the suicidal politics of the current ruling class?
Is it possible that there are no, not one political party or informal group against this stupidity?
Is it some inherent hate against Russia, some hope that EU would somehow manage to plunder Russian resources or just a stupidity?
I think, the psychological blur is just greater in EU then in USA.

Posted by: Mario | Jul 6 2022 20:08 utc | 42

The recent events in Uzbekistan were 99+% probability CIA regime change

"Police officers in Nukus were taken hostage, the facts of the seizure of firearms were noted.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan told the details of the riots in Karakalpakstan.

The rioters tried to storm the parliament buildings, the police and the National Guard.

107 law enforcement officers were seriously injured, 23 of them are still in serious condition."

https://t.me/sputnik/8192

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Jul 6 2022 20:10 utc | 43

In response to
"
Eliminating the post numbers is the best solution.

Then everyone, even newbies, will be forced to use the time stamp.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jul 6 2022 19:46 utc | 35
"

Think about what it says about the people that complain about the FREE bar. They are so put out about having to work to participate, poor things. If the newbies don't watch and read for a while they stick out like ignorant meatsacks with their comments.

Given the volume of comments now at MoA, having a method for identifying the noise from the signal helps....YMMV

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 6 2022 20:10 utc | 44

There has been some talk of ZATO escalation to the use of nukes.

Posted by: Sushi | Jul 6 2022 20:01 utc | 39

USSA basic military plans since 1945. Is the first use of nukes. Nothing more and nothing less. Russia/Chinese Doctrine is "Reply in Kind". Thus WW3 began and ended the same day.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 6 2022 20:15 utc | 45

re: trolls

you can't fix it if people continue to feed them (william gruff, for example, in this thread)

Posted by: albagen | Jul 6 2022 20:18 utc | 46

JK Rowling called on Johnson to step down. Having gone through the “cancellation culture” herself, she knows a lot about bullying.

They do not understand the main thing: the whole world looks at what is happening now in Washington, London, Brussels, Paris, Berlin and other Western capitals as the habits of savages. Those who call themselves the civilized world, advanced countries, developed democracies, have become not even a universal laughing stock. Worse. They evoke a sense of appropriate disgust in those who are accustomed to baselessly disdain themselves.

Maria Zakharova, just a few minutes ago

Posted by: ostro | Jul 6 2022 20:29 utc | 47

I’m concerned like Gruff.

I wonder what a “shot across the bow” might look like between these powers.

Perhaps simultaneous late-evening nuclear air bursts offshore and within site of main military or political HQ’s, preceded 5 minutes earlier by phone calls to warn opposing military chiefs not to retaliate against it because it’s a political message to warn the sick regime bosses and think tanks to back off?

Posted by: dfg | Jul 6 2022 20:36 utc | 48

There is no reason that I can see for the post numbers. Can anyone provide a reason for them?

Eliminating the post numbers is the best solution.

Then everyone, even newbies, will be forced to use the time stamp.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jul 6 2022 19:46 utc | 35

I maintain a list of distinctive terms in article titles that appear on the first summary page, each accompanied by the highest-numbered comment that I'd read. Even though posts sometimes get renumbered owing to post deletion, I find the post numbers extremely helpful in minimizing my having to reread content, and I'd hate to see them go. Timestamps are much less succinct.

Posted by: David Levin | Jul 6 2022 20:38 utc | 49

@ waynorinorway | Jul 6 2022 19:46 utc | 35

now i see what you are saying, lol... thanks... not sure if it is possible in this system that b uses..

@ Sushi | Jul 6 2022 20:01 utc | 39

thanks for saying all that... it gives me some hope that maybe the nuclear option will not be used by usa- west... i know there is a lot of projection on both sides over the use of nukes... that is the scary part as it says more about us then it does others... i don't know how crazy the leaders can get, but it seems like they can get crazier then i want to give them credit for..

Posted by: james | Jul 6 2022 20:38 utc | 50

Russia is moving to trading grain in roubles

Partners from friendly countries will pay in the local currency, according to Sergeyev, head of the United Grain Company. Russia also plans to abolish middlemen and work directly with grain importing countries. Trading grain in roubles allows Moscow to reduce the risks of sanctions and currency fluctuations.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 6 2022 20:59 utc | 51

Diplomatic language employed by Lavrov is slowly morphing into the use of terms only us radicals initially employed. From his presser in Vietnam earlier today:

"Question: How would you comment on Kiev's statements that the Russian army is allegedly shelling its own cities in order to disrupt the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine?

"Sergey Lavrov: In short, they are lying. The facts are well known and presented by our Ministry of Defence on a daily basis. Regardless of the interpretations of President Zelensky and his team, the West should be aware of the responsibility for the deaths of civilians, primarily in Donbass and other parts of Ukraine, where the Kiev regime uses these weapons against the civilian population by and large as a means of intimidation. This is state terror." [My Emphasis]

And the 2014 coup was also an act of State Terror by the Outlaw US Empire against the entire nation of Ukraine, as were all of its similar acts since 1945 of which it was actually found guilty in one case--a verdict it ignored, but we, the World, remember quite well. And it's that Collective Memory Set that binds all the Global South together against the Outlaw US Empire as most of its members have similar memories to share--and like Russia, they refuse to let those memories die. State Terror also underpins the state of relations between PRC and Japan and explains why PRC won't back down against the Outlaw US Empire.

As I've opined before, Ukraine represents the Multipolar World's pushback spearpoint aimed at disarming the Outlaw US Empire, its faithful lieutenant, its network of vassals, and finally providing the planet with the fruits of WW2's victory US Imperialism has denied for far too long. Thanks to the Empire, the struggle's now a siege it cannot win because it lacks the resources and is fundamentally bankrupt. To force the victory, the Multipolar World must initiate a new international trading system--currency and clearing mechanisms included. The practice of trading in national currencies is a good start/stop-gap until the new mechanisms are ready to implement. The following is from Lavrov's statement prior to the Q&A:

"We talked in detail about international affairs, our cooperation at the UN, and the processes taking place in the Asia-Pacific region, with an emphasis on developing a strategic partnership between Russia and ASEAN. We considered the problems that Western countries, led by the United States, create in the world economy. There is an understanding of how to continue to build our trade, economic and investment ties in these conditions in such a way that they do not suffer from illegitimate, unilateral sanctions announced by the United States, the EU and their allies in this region."

That conversation is happening daily. And last, we revisit some of the pre-SMO history which Lavrov retells in a contextually different manner:

Question: Last weekend, Paris announced Vladimir Putin's confidential talks with Emmanuel Macron. If this is a new approach to diplomacy, how does the Russian Foreign Ministry now approach delicate conversations? Is it possible to prevent such leaks?

Sergey Lavrov: As a matter of principle, we are conducting negotiations in such a way that we will never be ashamed. We always say what we think. We are ready to answer for our words and explain our position. I believe that diplomatic ethics does not imply a unilateral leak of the record. We have already commented on this situation.

In our practice, there was one case when a recording of my talks with the foreign ministers of Germany and France was published. At that time, we were still working within the framework of the Normandy format and for a long time trying to convince Berlin and Paris that they should force Kiev to stop sabotaging the implementation of the Minsk agreements, agreed in a decisive phase with the participation of the Germans and the French and subsequently approved by the UN Security Council. From the point of view of the double standards professed by my colleagues, the Foreign Ministers of France and Germany, their responses to these arguments were very revealing. Positioning themselves as guarantors of the Minsk agreements, they did everything to "whitewash" Kiev and justify its frank desire to disrupt their implementation. Now Poroshenko has said that he signed the Minsk agreements, not intending to implement them at all. As he said, it was necessary to buy time and get Western weapons to prepare a rematch. This is an objective fact. It is now safe to say that the behavior of Berlin and Paris, which shielded the Kiev regime, was aimed at supporting such actions and logic. At the same time, before the publication of the content of my talks with colleagues from France and Germany, we warned three times that if we did not receive clear explanations for refusing the documents agreed upon with their direct participation, we would be forced to make our discussions public. Paris and Berlin responded three times with silence. Obviously, there is a "small" difference here. [My Emphasis]

Macron and Merkle were used very skillfully by the Outlaw US Empire and its Lieutenant, but to be used in such a manner they themselves had to be corrupt to begin with. I find attempts to apologize for Merkle beyond sad--reprehensible--while the weakness of France's polity allows Macron to continue in power. As willing accomplices to the Outlaw US Empire, they too are guilty of State Terror.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:11 utc | 52

dfg @47

The US doesn't do shots across the bow.

That doesn't mean they won't start somewhat small. Like I said, the strategists for the Empire firmly believe the Russians "lack the balls" to go nuclear. The US can "bloody their nose" and the Russians will back down. Of course, "small" is relative. I would expect something like a fractional kiloton tactical device accurately targeted at Putin's sleeping quarters in the Kremlin. Naturally, that would still do quite a bit of damage in Moscow, but the intended message would be "It could have been much worse!"

No, either the US does the "Shock&Awe™" or someone else does the "Shock&Awe™" to America. Anything short of that would just be viewed as a sign of weakness by the Americans, which is why they would not do just a harmless demonstration themselves.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 6 2022 21:13 utc | 53

karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:11 utc | 51

Her name is spelled Merkel.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 6 2022 21:14 utc | 54

American weapons brought into Ukraine are increasingly being destroyed by Russian forces immediately after/before deployment.

Judging by the incoming information, HIMARS were destroyed in the so-called place of safe storage, and not in a combat position. Both launchers and missiles for them were destroyed. That the Russian missiles got to the HIMARS in the deep rear of the Ukrainian army, and they flew there without being detected is quite interesting.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 6 2022 21:17 utc | 55

ostro @55: "Because, the Americans are damn fools...😏"

It is unfortunate for all of us, but that is so.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 6 2022 21:26 utc | 56

If we accept as true the Western governments believe collective punishment economic sanctions is a tool to achieve regime change, the EU members must realize the regime change is aimed at them, not Russia.

Posted by: Willow | Jul 6 2022 21:26 utc | 57

ostro @50 fails to inform the bar that the info he provided comes from a conversation Putin had today with General Director of United Grain Company Dmitry Sergeev. The conversation reveals yet more data as to the structure of Russia's economy and its underlying political-economic philosophy. From the outset we learn:

Putin: The state has a controlling stake: 50 plus one share. A large investment program, revenue is growing. Last year, I think it grew by 62 percent and amounted to over one hundred billion rubles....

Sergeev: 13 years ago, by your executive order, the United Grain Company was formed and immediately included in the list of strategic joint-stock companies.

The company now has assets - nine elevators with a total storage capacity of 700 thousand tons, three processing enterprises with a total processing capacity of 500 thousand tons, as well as two port terminals with a total capacity of eight million tons and fifteen hundred hopper cars.

As you have already said, as for the company's financial condition, revenue for 2021 amounted to 104 billion 600 million rubles, which is 62 percent more [in 2020]. The company's net profit also doubled and amounted to four billion 600 million rubles.

The main strategic directions of the company's development: the first is the implementation of measures of state support [production] of agricultural products; this is the development of export infrastructure; and the third is the direct export of agricultural products.

Not 100% publicly owned, but with controlling interest. Thirteen years ago makes its genesis 2009, or perhaps 2008, which is when Putin began his grand restructuring and reorganization of Russia's economy based on the philosophy of People Centered Development, something very old within Russia it shares with China. Those barflies who've been reading my commentary over the years know all that, but the great number of newbies don't--yet. The great difference between Russia's current SOEs and those from the Soviet Era is flexibility combined with the capitalist entrepreneurial mind-set. But instead of having personal enrichment as the goal, Putin put in place enrichment of Russia and its people as the goal which is closely regulated via Duma committees and other agencies whose aim is to prevent corporatist-style corruption: the sort of corruption that can arise within any economic system lacking proper regulation.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:31 utc | 58

My previous reply to William Gruff from earlier today:

William Gruff @343--

While I don't disagree with your logic regarding Outlaw US Empire Neoliberalcons, I must reiterate my opinion that Russia will use its conventional Hypersonics first if the escalation ladder is about to reach that rung. And IMO, that moment is at least 27 months away. And it might not be reached at all given the twists and turns of our domestic politics as the 2024 election approaches. As we've seen the drama unfold to this point, IMO it's clear the Empire has gained its initial objective of subjugating Europe under its NATO/EU hegemonic wings, but that hegemony is likely to be short-lived as the Empire has also unleashed centrifugal forces within Europe that are beyond its control. The evidence for that is in the reaction to the Trial Balloon launched by Lithuania in attempting to get Russia to escalate as both Germany and France were horrified.

IMO, the quality and quantity of Russia's amassed illegal intelligence on the Outlaw US Empire is beyond our estimations, particularly in the realm of nuclear defense, while on the other hand the Outlaw US/Anglo Empire has nothing commensurate. The same could be said of Russia's overall nuclear forces and deterrent systems. I believe US-based Neoliberalcons will swallow the lesson provided by their Anglo-Saxon counterparts that it's entirely possible to lose most of your global empire while retaining your loot, which you can grow by continuing to exploit your domestic populace. Thus, there's no need to commit nuclear suicide.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:35 utc | 59

Turk 12 #17

I am optimistic. While our ruling class is deranged enough to use Nukes, it would require them to be more than utterly spineless cowards.

Bad news I bring.

They have been more than utterly spineless cowards for a few decades. They are oligarch's totally owned utterly spineless cowards.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 6 2022 21:39 utc | 60

Former US Army public affairs guy here. I stumbled on MoA back in February and it's a great source of news and analysis, I read it almost daily. On top of that, to have one of my own articles featured here was a HUGE honor.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/the-moa-week-in-review-ot-2022-40.html


I deleted a bunch of off topic comments.

I don't know what provoked this sudden change of attitude, but if you don't find my ramblings on the Ukraine information war useful anymore, then I'll stop sharing them. The stealth deletes were making me SERIOUSLY question my sanity. I thought my Russian IP address was giving me problems again. Thank you.

Posted by: Ian | Jul 6 2022 21:39 utc | 61

Interesting to see that the Russians lag so far behind in semiconductor development....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_4R4X7AWtU

Posted by: sean | Jul 6 2022 21:55 utc | 63

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:31 utc | 58

"The great difference between Russia's current SOEs and those from the Soviet Era is flexibility combined with the capitalist entrepreneurial mind-set. But instead of having personal enrichment as the goal, Putin put in place enrichment of Russia and its people as the goal."

Shades of that 'Master Argument of MacIntyre's 'After Virtue'' viz the post-Enlightenment's diminution of meaningfulness in life which comes from being part of a larger 'we.'

To do that you have to have some sense of shared destiny and shared culture. In the West a fifth column has destroyed that so well that many are cheerleading it on as unending progress.

In any case, it is beginning to seem to me that Russia might soon be regarded as the richest per capita nation in the world, depending on how you define the word 'rich.'

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 6 2022 22:00 utc | 64

Posted by: Ian | Jul 6 2022 21:39 utc | 61


Which article was yours?

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 6 2022 22:03 utc | 65

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:31 utc | 58

There was a time back in the 80's when there was always a Soviet ship in Vancouver's port loading wheat. From importing to becoming the first exporter, and this year they're expecting a bumber crop. Another little detail, some of those ships where built with Donbass steel and carried the names of cities in Donbass like for instance Privolye, a town close to Sieverodonetsk liberated just a few days ago. While the west jumped into a nether world of services, finances and FIRE Russia went for the pump country, or Upper Volta with atomic weapons as some French politician called them. Time proved them right, a smart phone is fine, but you gotta charge the battery...

Posted by: Paco | Jul 6 2022 22:04 utc | 66

Perhaps simultaneous late-evening nuclear air bursts offshore and within site of main military or political HQ’s, preceded 5 minutes earlier by phone calls to warn opposing military chiefs not to retaliate against it because it’s a political message to warn the sick regime bosses and think tanks to back off?

Posted by: dfg | Jul 6 2022 20:36 utc | 47

The EMP would wipe everything electric.
Look up Starfish prime.

Posted by: Jpc | Jul 6 2022 22:04 utc | 67

Ian #61


So post it on the open thread. And do assist in being specific about what article was yours. You could at least include a link to your original.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 6 2022 22:15 utc | 68

karlof1@59. i for one hope you are right, & take comfort in that you so often are & that you've based your judgement on facts & intensive research. i've spent some many years pondering that question. i recall being barely a teenager when i grasped that the western empire would face the inevitable rise of eurasia. i always, & still do, harbour hope that the empire will accept third or fourth rung on the hill/ladder. o/c it's taken me a lifetime to discover the extent of the empire's lust to control & own the world. i believe xi & putin, assad, nasrahallah & iran all agree that patience & diligence are essential.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Jul 6 2022 22:25 utc | 69

Ian #70

Ok, I read that. But I get disappearing posts - only occasionally - and it is certainly due to the black holes between me and MoA servers. Not censorship. But many people experience difficulties across the web ie: there are persistent comments by one or two about access to Strategic Culture - no one else is affected.

I guess your article could have been titled "We seriously overestimated NATO...."

Anyone who was not listening to the cacophonous ringing from Bellingcat could discern that NATO (or HATO as it should be known) knew that at some point Russia would need to demonstrate its power over the butchery since 2014 in Ukraine. I was one who did not think they would invade when they did as I took the (wrong) interpretation from the goading by HATO and USA as more idiot BS.

But the signals as to Russia's military competency and prowess were loud and clear for the last few years as was the pleading from the populace in eastern Ukraine to save them from nazis both in Ukraine and in NATO and the west.

Anyway I trust the idiot western militarists and their new NATOpacific don't overestimate their prowess and intelligence with regards to China and its Taiwan province. The Chinese have no tolerance for any more war mongering from Japan let alone the USA and its running dogs. Even more so in these days of repeated bioweapon attacks and blame shifting.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 6 2022 22:42 utc | 70

Scorpion @64--

Thanks for your reply. With your comment in mind, I suggest you revisit the lesson Putin delivered prior to SPIEF; not the entire event, just the lesson about sovereignty and how the "larger "'we'" is obtained.

Paco @66--

Thanks for your reply. Underneath all the advancing development, Russians still have a job to perform where Putin can only provide the proper conditions--Demographic Growth. Perhaps S or other barflies residing within Russia--women preferably--could enlighten me/us as to how much emphasis Russian media is spent on promoting that issue. For example, are there publications putting forth the idea that mothering/fathering 3-4 or more children is patriotic, almost a duty in a sense. Or is there little awareness that the lack of population growth is a serious issue. Perhaps the future doesn't seem as bright from inside Russia as I see it from the outside?

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 22:45 utc | 71

Paco @ 32

Thank you. Loved it. Good enough I'm going to play it for my pal Forrest who comes in on trumpet at about 2:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGM-7V1nK6k

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 6 2022 22:52 utc | 72

@sean | Jul 6 2022 21:55 utc | 63
Youtube stuff not seldom is pure crap. I watched shortly then failed to deem it worthwhile my time and attention. The guy should write an essay when wanting to be taken serious. Utoob is kiddie stuff.

For a more balanced view: https://www.rbth.com/science_and_tech/2016/08/16/the-rebirth-of-russias-microelectronics-industry_621421

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 6 2022 22:56 utc | 73

It's helpful to remember that Russian wheat consumed by Europe is GMO free. The inevitable food shortage caused by sanctions means that the European "organic" consumer will have to choose between US "Roundup ready" wheat or starvation, NATO or stomach cancer.

Posted by: Willow | Jul 6 2022 22:59 utc | 74

emersonreturn @71--

Thanks for your reply. I look at both UK and USA as Oligarchies where those at the top are capable of all sorts of manipulations to keep their place intact, and they aren't at all worried about a massive economic contraction as they've plenty squirrelled away. The most vociferous of the Neoliberalcons are not of that class; they are mere place keepers in the government charged with protecting the top tier's interest. What genuinely threatens the top tier is Revolution, not nuclear war. IMO, the top tier aren't at all interested in it, which is why Biden was told to agree with Russia that it should never be fought. Sure, the $800 Billion/yr tax transfers via the MIC to the top tier must continue and will as "security" will always be touted in Goering's fashion to ensure its continuance. Plus IMO, the top tier are very well informed about the genuine state of the Outlaw US Empire woeful defenses versus Russia's capabilities--they know they have no chance and so it's far better to just string the game along until the music stops playing when the Revolution finally occurs--that is, if it ever does. Remember, top tier manipulations are excellent and they have over a century of practice.

I hope William Gruff reads these further grounds for my position. It's not that I disagree with the utter corruption of the Neoliberalcons; it's that I disagree that they have any say in the matter: They are mere bit players in the overall scheme, and they probably don't like that but take their moola and do as they're told.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 23:09 utc | 75

@ Jpc | Jul 6 2022 22:04 utc | 67

“Oh, dear. Did we do that? Sah-reee. We send you 1m rubles for reconstruction.”
- Boris & Natasha

@ Gruff

Thanks for the critique.

Posted by: dfg | Jul 6 2022 23:13 utc | 76

On the subject of Ukraine and the influence the SMO is having, I do not think it is a minor factor in the resignations weakening Johnson's leadership in Britain. We ought to remember that it was the British parliament that refused to provide support for Obama's upping the ante in Syria - a surprise, but certainly a factor in the gradual tamping down of military attempts to overthrow Syria's own elected leader, Assad.

Johnson's support of Zelensky, and even the latter's strident calls for such support cannot be welcomed by ordinary folk. I'd think Britain may be the canary in the coal mine on this issue alone. (He does remind me a bit of a canary, come to think of it.)

Posted by: juliania | Jul 6 2022 23:17 utc | 77

Posted by: Ian | Jul 6 2022 22:20 utc | 70

I have not been here for very long, but i have observed that there are periods when the number of appalling, probably troll comments gets out of hand. I often wish b would remove them. I suspect he is time poor and only occasionally will lose his temper/have time to slice the rubbish.

He did warn us up front of having cut stuff. I was asleep and did not see what it was.

I hope he gets rid of openly NAZI apologist stuff and also foul racist stuff. Also obvious trolling.

I cannot see much of a problem, since when I respond I simply copy the whole comment including number, poster name and time. it is actually easier than recalling the comment number . (i sometimes fail to copy the first letter of the poster name.)

Posted by: watcher | Jul 6 2022 23:27 utc | 78

@ Ian Kummer

Doubt It’s intentional censorship, in your case. FWIW, I do read some of your posts and each time enjoyed reading it.

(For lack of time, i find it hard to read everything let alone write to add anything in response.)

Posted by: dfg | Jul 6 2022 23:33 utc | 79

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 22:45 utc | 73

re: "the lesson Putin delivered prior to SPIEF; [about] how the "larger "'we'" is obtained.""

There have been so many talks of late but I think that was the one that tuned me into how important that principle is for him and for the whole multipolarity business. Anyway, he said recently he would spell out how such a thing might work in practice so am looking forward to seeing how he approaches that.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 6 2022 23:35 utc | 80

@jared 13
"why can I provide reasonable overview while Ritter, Mearshimer, Cholmsky et al are making videos that miss the point - leave much unsaid. Even Greenwald and Mate, where are they on this."
All of the folks you mention are "liberal" Western journalists. When I read them, I always, always see them take one step forward toward truth beyond mainstream media, and then two steps back.

Posted by: HelenB | Jul 6 2022 23:37 utc | 81

"...During the talks, we discussed many issues, including the situation that arose as a result of the openly Russophobic Western policy aimed at creating a threat to the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory and maintaining the neo-Nazi line of the Kyiv regime...."[Lavrov's description at the press conference in Vietnam]

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:11 utc | 51

As you point out, karlof1, it is in following the route of diplomacy and such responses as these that we fill in the details of Russia's careful compilations of historic happenings, just as the early chroniclers transcribed their observances of events - a tradition honored by Dostoievski in "The Idiot" - whose hero is, when we first meet him, an expert calligrapher by profession. Lavrov's skill reminds me of that heritage.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 6 2022 23:41 utc | 82

"But the majority of people think that if I am good, bury my head in the sand and think of nothing bad, it will pass us by and hit somewhere else"

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jul 6 2022 18:58 utc | 22

Being of German descent, but living in Canada, I was watching the 2014 Word Cup with a bunch of visiting Germans. I googled their national anthem & proudly sang along. But when the words "Deutschland uber Alles" came out of my mouth, I was immediately chastised" "Oh no! We NEVER sign that!" (thanks for nothing google) My esteem of Germans took a big hit that day. Whatever happened to the German spirit?

Posted by: ianMoone | Jul 6 2022 23:47 utc | 83

Perhaps simultaneous late-evening nuclear air bursts offshore and within site of main military or political HQ’s, preceded 5 minutes earlier by phone calls to warn opposing military chiefs not to retaliate against it because it’s a political message to warn the sick regime bosses and think tanks to back off?

Posted by: dfg | Jul 6 2022 20:36 utc | 47

Not a good idea. Both the Russian and Chinese policies' are "Return in Kind". Only the crazy insane USSA. Has the standing policy of first strike mode. Since 1945......

In low earth, orbit early-warning satellites to monitor all static first to launch ICBM silos.......

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 6 2022 23:57 utc | 84

Duma committees and other agencies [aim] to prevent corporatist-style corruption: the sort of corruption that can arise within any economic system lacking proper regulation.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 6 2022 21:31 utc | 58


That corruption starts at the bottom:

For example, practically every town and county in the US is ruled by a local Mob (Establishment, whatever), which sorted out all the goodies long ago, and it is those Mobs that select State legislators, and so on, all the way to the DC Mob.

These local Mobs staff all local government offices, municipal, county, State, Federal, and freely exchange information of interest or use to the Mob, even confidential, including criminal, financial and medical.

Until some decentralized mechanism is proved effective against such "natural mobsterism" all schemes of distant overhead policing must prove feckless, if only because attempting to deal with a massive eternal decentralized problem with a high-level limited-resource agency.

And from what I read local anti-corruption efforts in Russia don't generally fare too well.


Posted by: John Kennard | Jul 7 2022 0:07 utc | 85

karlof1@77. thank you for your informed response, much appreciated. we differ very little in our view of the elite's caste signature, stamp & ranking. i see the city of london, a smattering of americian oligarchs as well as a coven of israeli oligarchs as the composers of this our requiem. i sincerely hope you are right in your view that the masters are not inclined to nuclear war & have no plan to use their hideaways or bunkers, they are after all not stupid & have played the world to their tune for @ least a century, arguably some bit longer. when you've time i would be most interested in your opinions on the revolution, as the masters have a considerable history of orchestrating revolutions, & while this rising may include EU as well as NA (if we manage to shake off our drugged programming) we are a small percentage of the world. i trust putin, lavrov, xi & team to continue to navigate our world toward prosperity & peace sans the empire of the outlaws & liars. i find jeffery sachs latest 2 papers most curious...perhaps he's an envoy sent to pacify & nullify whilst the mafia warlords play for time.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Jul 7 2022 0:22 utc | 86

FYI on Putin's G-20 appearance being dependent on "the development of the situation in the world and taking into account the sanitary and epidemiological situation in Southeast Asia." Lavrov will be in Bali the next two days for the face-to-face foreign ministers meeting of the G20.

emersonreturn @89--

Thanks for your reply. I'll look into Sachs' recent musings. I've given thought recently to updating my Critical Mass essays I wrote prior to the 2020 election. The basic problem of people talking past each other instead of with each other remains despite the shared economic pain. Some recent polls offer encouragement but there remains no publicly recognized leader or alternative vision, only Trump slinging mud at Biden. But we know the top tier is worried which is why the USSC has revamped the Culture Wars in an effort to further divide and rule.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 7 2022 0:46 utc | 87

@oldhippie | Jul 6 2022 22:52 utc | 74

Thank you. Loved it. Good enough I'm going to play it for my pal Forrest who comes in on trumpet at about 2:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGM-7V1nK6k


Oldhippie, your friend Forrest is a world class trumpet player. Beautiful, powerful playing. Thanks for sharing this. Malo has so much soul, La Raza, everything. And baddass Forrest! Thanks again and thank you for your work on MOA.

Posted by: Boomhauer | Jul 7 2022 1:01 utc | 88

Like I said, the strategists for the Empire firmly believe the Russians "lack the balls" to go nuclear.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 6 2022 21:13 utc | 52

I don't believe they're lacking in that department. There's a reason the most deadliest game is called Russian Roulette and not something else.

Posted by: One Too Many | Jul 7 2022 1:08 utc | 89

This is the kind of world I dreamed to see. And apparently it is evolving before my time is up. I'm grateful to have lived long enough for this dawning.

Oriental Voice | Jul 6 2022 19:11 utc | 25
_____

Heartily agree!

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jul 7 2022 1:18 utc | 90

Replying to Sean #63
"Interesting to see that the Russians lag so far behind in semiconductor development"

A long-standing problem. There's no question that Taiwan fab is the leader in submicron wafer tech, a problem the Chinese are also very focused on given US sanctioning of Huawei and others. But as they say, size isn't everything. CPU speeds no longer follow Moore's Law while Wirth's Law (s/w bloat) consumes most of the new capacity. This is a feature of s/w design using DLLs, which load chunks of irrelevant code which may never be needed in the immediate context.

Many years ago I was fortunate to have a long chat with an R&D engineer from Mikoyan, who was quite open about it. Russia lagged seriously in chip fab, he said, but made up for a lot of it by using highly efficient code. Their s/w people used much less high-level code like C++ or Java and much more hand-polished assembler. If you can do an entire task in a dozen CPU cycles it doesn't matter much that someone with a faster chip can do the same task in 100 CPU cycles. And there's the knock-on effect that bloat is less reliable. In mission-critical conditions you really can't turn it off then turn it on again.

Posted by: TPaine | Jul 7 2022 1:21 utc | 91

Regarding nukes, Larry Johnson passed the comment that Russia is in a better position than the West. Their new S500 should be able to take out a percentage of missiles while the West has no defense. That isn't to suggest Russia wouldn't be badly damaged, just less so than the West. S550 will be coming online later in the year, the more of these systems that are built the less potential missiles hitting Russia. What happens if Russia no longer fears nukes?

Posted by: Organic | Jul 7 2022 1:38 utc | 92

The decision (if that's what you want to call it) to confront U.S. unilateral behavior was made by China and Russia after the U.S. left the JCPOA. Trump upset the apple cart when he won in 2016. To appease neocons, he did some pretty seriously messed-up shit, but nothing has diminished U.S. standing worldwide more than pulling out of that Agreement. The U.S. could not be counted to keep an agreement even when they put their name to it in writing and vote in favor of it at the UNSC. What was Russia and China to think?

Trump backed off initiating WWIII after Iran retaliated for the assassination of the Iranian general. A year later, Biden is brought in to finish the job with Iran, not confront a united Russia and China. The current U.S. administration is seriously lacking in that department. Putin nailed it when he said Iran was not a big enough threat to satisfy MIC lust for more blood, more money. The scheme got reversed. It was supposed to be Iran first, Ukraine second, and so on. However, Russia wasn't having none of it.

Even then, the west still felt it had the upper hand and what, some five months later, we see a weakened BoJo, Macron barely hanging on, Biden lost in space, North Atlantic becoming Pacific Blue, inflation and recession popping up everywhere.

And most importantly, as pointed out elsewhere and by many others, Russia in so many ways have not actually responded with shutting off its western customers to their supply of Russian energy.

Folks are pointing to Autumn and Winter as the timing for impact of these events to manifest in the western socio/economic domain. The U.S. and its western partners may struggle to even make out of this Summer intact.

Posted by: thecelticwithinme | Jul 7 2022 1:45 utc | 93

@Vintage Red and others interested in this type of analysis: I strongly recommend the Red Sails site (https://redsails.org/) as worthwhile (in a not-wasting-your-time sense) to look through. (I like the writings of Humphrey McQueen especially.)

Posted by: KyleKoffler | Jul 5 2022 0:21 utc | 109

***

Away for work but catching up just saw your post in Open Thread 103. Looks good, thank you, I'll check it out, Emersberger, McQueen and all!

Posted by: Vintage Red | Jul 7 2022 1:48 utc | 94

karlof1@91. thank you for your reply. i look forward to reading your updated critical mass essays. thank you for helping us connect present day events to history. your documentation, of seemingly unconnected events, in my mind shall be like an historical non fiction war & peace.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Jul 7 2022 1:59 utc | 95

@karlof1

Full support to your comments this thread from @51 on re: nuclear war and the neocons/neoliberalcons. @59 yes there's no need to commit nuclear suicide, but it's still a worry as an accident or misunderstanding. As Thucydides wrote, “Think, too, of the great part that is played by the unpredictable in war: think of it now, before you are actually committed to war. The longer a war lasts, the more things tend to depend on accidents."

@77 "What genuinely threatens the top tier is Revolution, not nuclear war."

This is our responsibility in the belly of the Beast. Keeping our eyes on the prize.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Jul 7 2022 2:03 utc | 96

@ Ian | Jul 6 2022 21:39 utc | 61

some of the posts deleted were from ian kummer... was that the handle you used earlier in this thread? i seem to recall a number of covid related posts, and i seem to recall at least one of them was from you.... or was that ian kummer, and you are just ian here now?? i don't recall just an 'ian' posting earlier in this thread... perhaps an accident happened..

see my post @ james | Jul 6 2022 16:48 utc | 8

where i said this -

"Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

i think b said that at the top.."

i distinctly remember posting this after you left a link on covid.. now maybe it was a different ''ian'' or ian kummer... i kind of doubt it... some one is playing mind games, or - even worse - don't know they are playing mind games...

Posted by: james | Jul 7 2022 2:04 utc | 97

karlof1 @77: "The most vociferous of the Neoliberalcons are not of that class [actual oligarchs]; they are mere place keepers in the government charged with protecting the top tier's interest. What genuinely threatens the top tier is Revolution, not nuclear war."

I agree completely. In my opinion you are seeing the power structure in the Empire as clearly as anyone; more clearly. I also agree that the imperial elites are most concerned with Revolution (the big "R" kind that shifts the world to new socioeconomic foundations), but their concern is misplaced. The masses don't pursue forward-looking revolution when they are hurting and desperate. Progress-oriented revolution only actually occurs during periods of optimism; euphoria. While that can happen during dire economic or geopolitical conditions (depression, war), bad times do not drive revolution.

Other than the capitalist system being in insoluble crisis and the ruling elites being deeply divided and in disarray, we don't have pre-revolutionary conditions. Regular folks are deeply pessimistic and the working class has no organization to speak of. We needn't even mention the status of any sort of ideological leadership for a revolution that can challenge capitalist ideology at this point. We are many years away from revolution in any of the Global North countries.

That the imperial elites are preoccupied with the threat of revolution at this time is part of why I am so concerned. They are distracted and will sleepwalk into serious conflict. They seriously do not believe that the Russians will use nukes, even if the Empire uses them first. Sure, they don't want nuclear war, but they don't believe there is any risk of it even if they order their subordinates in the Empire to use them.

A significant mistake you seem to be making is in assuming that the oligarchs running the world from behind the curtain are wiser and more grounded in reality than the neolibcons they have managing the US Establishment. The opposite is actually the case. They stew in the same toxic propaganda soup as the rest of us, but they are also surrounded by sycophants who tell them what they want to hear. While sitting at the commanding heights of the economy should give them a better view of where humanity is headed, the blinds are closed on the windows of their office suites.

Finally, I agree with you that when (not if) Russia is forced to escalate the conflict with NATO they will use conventional weapons. The problem is that this will be a normal and completely predictable step in the escalation; expected, even. This will not be sufficient to break the exceptionalism delusion of the West, so the escalation will continue and nukes will remain on the table for the West to use against Russia. Conventional weapons will not break the US out of the escalation cycle. Conventional responses will just continue the escalation.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 7 2022 2:09 utc | 98

One Too Many @93: "I don't believe they're [Russians] lacking in that [balls] department."

I don't either. It's too bad we are not the ones running the show in the West.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 7 2022 2:12 utc | 99

“That corruption starts at the bottom”
John Kennard | Jul 7 2022 0:07 utc | 88

On the issue of corruption, Godfree Roberts recently had a piece regarding corruption in China which I found interesting, here it is if you want to have a look:

https://godfree.substack.com/p/corruption-in-china/“>Link to Godfree’s sub stack

Posted by: Htyul | Jul 7 2022 2:19 utc | 100

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