Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 04, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-103

(An unexpected family issue kept me busy today. As I had no time to read and write this will be the only thread today.)

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on July 4, 2022 at 17:20 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page | next page »

The 'motor' of Europe is broken

In May 2022, German exports were down by 0.5% and imports up by 2.7% on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis compared with April 2022. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that exports increased by 11.7% and imports by 27.8% from May 2021. Exports to the Russian Federation rose by 29.4% to 1.0 billion euros in May 2022 from April 2022 after dropping sharply by nearly 60% in March 2022 from February 2022 and by 9.9% in April 2022 from March 2022. Compared with May 2021, they were by 54.6% lower. Imports from Russia declined by 9.8% to 3.3 billion euros in May 2022 from April 2022.


https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/07/PE22_279_51.html

Posted by: António Ferrão | Jul 4 2022 23:32 utc | 101

@ Jimp | Jul 4 2022 22:51 utc | 94

You are too pessimistic about nuclear power. Its worth having a look at the new direction in nuclear power that is being taken by Russia and China among others.

Dr. George W Oprisko (Jul 4 2022 18:21 utc | 12) Has made a point of posting information on the new developments in nuclear power, his posts are worth checking out. Thorium reactors and fast neutron reactors in general are a lot safer and produce a lot less nuclear waste. Fusion power is still a long way off and realistically nuclear power is the only way we're going to fill the energy gap until then.

Posted by: MarkU | Jul 5 2022 0:03 utc | 102

Whichever e-mail address Baron posts under he gets a message 'invalid e-mail address', why?

Posted by: Baron | Jul 4 2022 22:37 utc | 87
____

I found this happens whenever there's a trailing space after a legit email address. I simply delete the space and voila.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jul 5 2022 0:15 utc | 103

Video of missile hitting near shopping centre.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jul 4 2022 20:48 utc | 47

Thanks. My first impression looking at that is that it's fake, the missile was 'shopped into 2 frames. But some back-of-the-envelope calculations:

The video is taken with a very high shutter speed, likely at or over 1/1000s, and appears to be 25fps. This and the resolution makes it unlikely to be from a standard security camera. Nevertheless, at 25 fps, it appears to be moving about 5 x the missile's length between frames (it's coming from above the right shoulder of the viewer, heading to the horizon). A Kh-22 is 11.65m long, so it is travelling approx. 60m every frame, 25 fps gives me a terminal velocity of 1500m/s, or 5400 Km/hr. The Kh-22 is rated for a terminal velocity of Mach 4.6, or 5600 Km/hr (1556m/s). So my ballpark calculation places the velocity at exactly the expected speed of a Kh-22.

As for shutter speed: I would estimate the missile is moving less than 0.5m during the frame capture. At 5600Km/hr, a Kh-22 will travel 0.5m in the space of 1/3000 second. This is what I would expect of a dSLR or equivalent taking 1080p video outdoors with a lens set at about f4-5.6. I'm sure there are surveillance cameras that can do this, but you can't buy them at Costco. I'm not sure what high-end phones can do, in the examples of rotary shutter effect people are using them to freeze the propellers on turboprop planes, so definitely in this ballpark.

So my final word on the video is that it's plausibly real.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 5 2022 0:15 utc | 104

@Nemo #8
@Kingsmeg #29

Shutter Speed / Exposure Tutorial (IPVM, November 28, 2016)


Surveillance cameras almost universally default to automatic control of the shutter speed, meaning that the camera will continue to adjust its speed without any intervention of the user. In brighter scenes, shutter speed will be faster (e.g., 1/1000s), but if it is quite dark, the shutter speed slows (e.g., 1/30s).

So, in daylight conditions, a sensor pixel of a typical surveillance camera will gather light for 1 ms, then stay closed for 32.33 ms, resulting in an output video at 30 fps (33.33 ms per frame). This is done precisely to avoid motion blur so that license plates, faces, etc. can be clearly identified in recordings (see the above article for an example).

AFAIK, most surveillance cameras use non-buffered CMOS sensors, meaning, the individual rows of the sensor are read at different times, top to bottom, which would make a downward-flying missile appear longer that it is, because it would move along its trajectory before the next row of pixels is read. In the video of the missile strike on the railway junction behind the Amstor mall, the missile occupies 11.6% of frame height. Assuming sensor readout time of 24 ms (these are typically quite a bit shorter than the expected 33.33 ms because of non-zero inter-frame delay), 2.78 ms would have passed between capturing the fin of the missile and its tip. In low-altitude mode, the Kh‑22 missile strikes its target at Mach 3.5 = 4326 km/h = 1202 m/s = 1.2 m/ms, which means that, in the video, the missile would appear 3.34 m longer that it actually is (11.65 m), that is, 29% longer. The Kh-22 missile in the video does look somewhat longer than the one in this Wikipedia photo, so it seems the camera does have a non-buffered rolling shutter.

Posted by: S | Jul 5 2022 0:15 utc | 105

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2022 23:27 utc | 100

As Lex mentioned earlier, the essential core objective of the first phase of the SMO was securing water and other access to Crimea, including the Sea of Azov. I would add into that securing the Zaporizhia NPF. This was mostly completed very early, other that drawn out Mariupol.

The second objective was securing/capturing the Luhansk PR. This is the most Eastern part and impossible to deal with the North of Donetsk without first having LDPR. This is now complete.

The third/fourth objectives are I think securing the Donetsk PR and I think Kharkov. These are so close to Russia with so many Russian speakers, that they must be the next two. I suspect that this phase will be quite quick as Russia has changed tactics- now much more aggressive.

Fifth/Sixth are Nikolayev and Odessa (which probably must include the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhia, including the cities. This is a huge task and one that risks major escalation.

After that who knows - negotiation might be possible.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 5 2022 0:17 utc | 106

Posted by: S | Jul 5 2022 0:15 utc | 104

Kewl. I did my own calculation just above yours. I still think the shutter speed is well over 1/1000s.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 5 2022 0:21 utc | 107

To add some resources to the long running discussion on Nazism within the current context, I think the following might be of some use:

Mein Kampf: Hitler’s Love Letter to Western Imperialism
Joe Emersberger
Link: https://redsails.org/emersberger-on-mein-kampf/

This is Joe Emsberger at his very best.

@Vintage Red and others interested in this type of analysis: I strongly recommend the Red Sails site (https://redsails.org/) as worthwhile (in a not-wasting-your-time sense) to look through. (I like the writings of Humphrey McQueen especially.)

Posted by: KyleKoffler | Jul 5 2022 0:21 utc | 108

Also dinosaurs left behind a lot of dirty coal and oil, what we will leave behind is going to be a lot more sophisticated.
by: ETA | Jul 4 2022 17:50 utc | 5

Of course you were kidding but I was stunned to learn that fossil fuels do not come from the plant material from that era.

I would have to ask someone for more qualified here to explain that. The only thing I know is that anything I ever lived in my life is wrong.

Hi everyone.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Jul 5 2022 0:28 utc | 109

BRICS' currency is not an idiocy like EuroZone that condemned so many countries to stagnation, debt, and austerity, only for the benefit of a few central countries.
Each country in the BRICS (and some more later) will keep their SOVEREIGNTY, their currencies with free floating, their monetary policies, etc. But they will have a collective currency for international payments, whose value will be a weighted average of the currencies taking part of it, plus the value of some other things, like oil, gas, etc.
This is exactly what Putin explained several times, regarding integration in the EuroAsian area: learn with the mistakes from the others (EuroZone).

After implemented, it will be a competitor of Euro and Dollar in internacional markets. The last time I checked, dollar still had around 50% (but already with a decreasing tendency, the Euro 30%, and the other currencies added up 10%, specially British sterling, Japanese Yen, and Chinese Renminbi.
It will be fun to see the next charts already with the Rubble effects. And it will be even funnier, year by year, to see the dollar going away. But that depends on what EuroZone does: currently, because their shooting themselves in both feet, the Euro is losing value. If this continues, the Euro stupidity might be what saves the Dollar for a few more years.

All this dollar substitution process might take years, even more than one decade, but the signs are all already here and all point in the same way: OAS countries speaking up against USA stupidity, Argentina asking to be part of BRICS+, Venezuela refusing to sell oil to USA, Saudi Arabia selling its oil in Renminbi to China, India (and others) having trade deals with Russia in both countrie's currencies, Russia pegging Rubble to gold and successfully forcing Europe to pay in Rubbles, ASEAN turning their backs to USA, all the BRICS' investment in Global South, the end of Quantitative Easing in Europe which will be followed by the next Euro-crisis, USA's inflation and 2 decades of military defeats, etc.

Welcome to the beginning of the end of the oligarchic Empire of Lies in the West. It's now a matter of time until the rebel alliance wins. And that time might be even shorter is, by miracle, people in EuroZone stop being as idiots as they are being nowadays, with their blind support for USA genocidal regime, and ideological fanaticism behind Euro currency and NeoLiberal "rules" (aka stagnation currency and TINA/austerity dictatorship, imposed by the Davos "elites" under a rain of lies and manipulation by their 100% controlled "free media").

As for the military thing: either Ukraine surrenders with the territory still left, or Ukraine surrenders with even fewer territory. Russia is actually the one more interested in a prolonged conflict, and NATO weapons with more range, in order to justify a bigger operation and taking more Ukraine territory. And Europe was the one that wanted a quick thing, and that's why the sanctions reached this level. They never though Russia would live more than 1 or 2 months under that economical war. But, as all NeoLiberal idiots, they understand nothing of macro-economics. All they know is their religion, and the word of their priests in Davos, Bilderberg, Rotthschild, etc.

NATO/USA will never intervene (I actually doubt they would intervene even to save Lithuania... and that's why EU solved the Kaliningrad so quickly). You know why? Because USA has +800 military bases all over the world, in non-NATO places, and in invaded countries. The day NATO/USA intervenes against Russia, is the day a global coalition (leaded by Russia and China, followed by CSTO, and many SCO countries and anti-imperialist people from Global South) bombs all those bases, starting in Syria and Iraq. And USA will have ZERO legal grounds to counter-attack, and ZERO chances of starting any war against all of them, and Europe vassals will have ZERO will to help USA in that situation, since it won't be an attack on USA's soil.

Well, maybe only the lunatic Brits... but only the ones in England+Wales, since the others (Scotland, and United Ireland) will already be independent by then. And let's not forget the increasing division inside USA, that resembles the division in Ukraine that USA used to make the 2014 coup in Ukraine. One day that will be used against USA. Secession movements may divide the "U"SA in 2 or 3 territories. Before I die, I will see BRICS+ make a statement like this: "we support the self-determination of the people of Texas+South confederation against the authoritarian regime of Washington. We'll supply weapons to Texas+South Confederation, and if *insert name of the lunatic in White House here* decides to do a genocidal act of unjustified and unprovoked aggression, we will intervene by sending more and more weapons, until many "U"SA military are dead and their regime is totally defeated and no longer can invaded anyone else"

You guys see what I did here, right? Ahahahah

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 5 2022 0:32 utc | 110

Zbigniew Brzezinski.... I haven't heard that name in quite some time.

Or as he is now known, Bigniew Breinski as he is now known in the not so big new Ukrainski.

Does anybody remember all those American type of writers with the w's removed?

I'm prepared to crowd fund the shipment of keyboards with all the z's removed and... ship them somewhere.

WhoZe with me?

Posted by: David G Horsman | Jul 5 2022 0:37 utc | 111

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 4 2022 20:11 utc | 34
Currencies are creatures of trust ….remove the trust in the stability of the currency, and it falls overnite…. Truly, a legitimate occurance of the Hemmingway effect. Gotta love it, even among the ruin!

Posted by: James j | Jul 5 2022 0:40 utc | 112

One thing Brzezinski explained in his book is that certain nations are very important “pivotal states” that need to be free from Russian and Chinese control if American elites are going to be able to implement their new world order, and Ukraine is the main pivotal nation." Why didn’t US elites give in to Putin’s request?

By: Kana | Jul 4 2022 17:58 utc | 7

I had assigned the Eastern European countries as a group with this sort of importance. So it's always good to hear an American geopolitical psychopath agrees with me.

However this was within a wider context regarding the development of fascism in relation to societal trauma. Social mental illness if you like.

Israel is an example of this.

And I think it's worth pointing out that it is this relative importance assigned by the great powers that has caused warfare and genocide to sweep across these nations time and time again.

As for Israel? You reap what you sow.

My 5-year project was partly to predict the development of widespread censorship and fascism within the g7.

My conclusion? The cause is lost, but it was well before I began and I knew it.

We can still die on our feet. Does your life mean anything?

Posted by: David G Horsman | Jul 5 2022 0:47 utc | 113

The russian Propaganda sounds too good, no word what losses they have, only figures of Ukranian:
"The total losses of Ukrainian forces amounted to 5,469 soldiers (that's a lot) , including 2,218 killed, 3,251 wounded, 196 tanks and other armored vehicles, 12 aircraft, one helicopter (that's too little), 69 unmanned aerial vehicles, 6 long-range surface-to-air missile systems, 97 multiple rocket launchers, 166 field and mortar artillery pieces, and 216 vehicles of various purposes.

In Lysychansk, the retreating enemy left 39 tanks and other armored vehicles, 11 guns and mortars, 48 Javelin and NLAW anti-tank missile systems, 18 Stinger systems, and three unmanned aerial vehicles."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Posted by: peter | Jul 5 2022 0:49 utc | 114

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIIoyh2LdCo

Telling it like it is. Let us hope that Biden reins in the rhetoric.

Posted by: Undercutter | Jul 5 2022 0:58 utc | 115

People who enthuse about reserve currency status should consider that it requires the donor country to run trade deficits

Use of synthetic reserve currency like SDRs is held to be better since it does not use a National internal currency for global trade and forex intervention

Even on Gold British Pound only functioned when British Empire was commodity rich in gold, coal, diamonds, rubber etc and collapsed 1931 as France sucked gold from London as it did later from US

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 5 2022 1:02 utc | 116

In many ways, so-called "social democratic" Canada is even more fanatically pro-fascist than the United States is. And this is likely one reason why Canada is so aggressively Russophobic.

Careful what you ascribe to all Canada. As a life-long Canadian, this statement is way over the top. I have never met anyone who neither remotely resembles a 'pro-fascist', much less a fanatical one, or is aggressively russophobic (well, apart from some during occasional periods of whipped-up media demonization of Russia, like the one now). And I have run in lower, middle, and upper class circles around the country.

What is certainly true is that there are a LOT of anti-russian Ukrainians, Canada having the largest Ukrainian diaspora in the world (Freeland among them). and they largely came from western Ukrainian. They are a significant political force, particularly in the prairies, and appear to me to have an outsized impact given their numbers. But like the nationalists in Ukraine, they may be small in number, but , IMNSHO they are loud, passionate, and more than a little crazily russophobic.

Similarly, the diaspora here certainly do not represent the typical Canadian, so it is not accurate nor helpful to paint 'Canada' with their hateful brush. What is true is that these zealots ought to be called out for what they are, and have it made clear that they do not speak for me or anyone else but their own hateful clique.

Posted by: Bun | Jul 5 2022 1:05 utc | 117

On the retention of a reserve currency. My assessment of that issue is that no nations want any other nation to have the power provided by its currency being THE reserve currency or sole trading currency. Glazyev talks about democratizing international trade via a new trading currency based on a basket of currencies and commodities. This Bancor Wiki entry will be helpful for those unfamiliar with this issue. Reference links 7-10 also offer further insight. As the Wiki notes, the problem's been allowed to languish for too long and clearly a solution must be found.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 4 2022 22:28 utc | 85

Interesting. So, under the BRICS basket of currencies and commodities, would countries still be able to pay each other using their native currencies? Alternatively, would they be able to pay using an arbitrary subset of the elements of the BRICS basket, where the share of each element in that arbitrary subset would be pre-determined?

Maybe an example of the second situation would help. Suppose country A and country B agree that A will pay B in some combination of wheat, rubles, and oil (being that A has more than enough of each, B needs more of each, and each currency/commodity is a component of the BRICS basket). The administrators of the BRICS basket would provide an equation whose solutions constitute quantities of wheat, rubles, and oil that combine to have equivalent value to that of the BRICS basket.

Does that make sense? Or would you like some of whatever I've been ingesting?

Posted by: David Levin | Jul 5 2022 1:15 utc | 118

@ kingsmeg 103, and everyone else.

I haven't posted here very much, and have never discussed my background.

30+ years is what you call the US MIC.
15+ years as a weapons tester.

Missiles, guns, rockets, lasers, defensive armor, radios, sensors.

After one test few years ago, I was reviewing video to determine impact angle and to get cool stills for briefing charts.

The missile in the test has a precursor warhead, and a main charge warhead.

As I reviewed frame by frame, the impact frame had a weird bright light that I hadn't seen before. Hmmm....

I showed it to the warhead person, he hadn't seen it either, but then recalled a separate test on precursor, and speculated that it was the precursor igniting in that frame.

Keep in mind that the precursor works in microseconds. The gap between the that and the main charge is only a few more microseconds.

Video was std 60 f/s.

We had caught a 1 in a billion shot at that frame rate.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jul 5 2022 1:20 utc | 119

peter | Jul 5 2022 0:49 utc | 113 "The Russian Propaganda sounds too good,"

If you had studied current Russia and Russian military at all prior to the SMO, you would realize Russia is now engaged in the methodical destruction of Ukraine military. Second phase is little more than a training exercise. Groups rotated through for practical training.
Donetsk publish their casualties which are low considering this is supposed to be high intensity conflict. Russian losses will be lower still. Probably around 1 to 10 Russian allied losses to Ukraine losses.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 1:22 utc | 120

@ Bun | Jul 5 2022 1:05 utc | 116

i think it is worse then you think it is.... freeland being seen in a protest with the oun flag in front of her is only part of it...

check out the last part of a video linked below in paul robinsons website for an example of the ndp being very rabid in their hatred towards russia, in spite of any objectivity.. all the major parties are aligned and hoping for support from the ukrainian community and they have no objectivity on the topic of ukraine as i see it... and canada has supported the training and arming of the azov battalion which which again is only scratching the tip of the surface on canada's role her in helping foster war and mayhem in ukraine.... of course canada will own up to none of it because the major political parties are all in agreement over all of this.. none of them question nato and none of them have the guts or character to voice an alternative viewpoint... the cbc is now a branch of the csis and completely lost any objectivity in the coverage... all of this implies to me the move towards fascism is well on its way forward in canada and the citizenry seem mostly oblivious to it too.. that is my take..

EVIDENCE TO PARLIAMENT

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2022 1:27 utc | 121

Bun @ 116
Similarly, the diaspora here certainly do not represent the typical Canadian, so it is not accurate nor helpful to paint 'Canada' with their hateful brush. What is true is that these zealots ought to be called out for what they are, and have it made clear that they do not speak for me or anyone else but their own hateful clique.

The problem is, as it is in the US as well, is that we are all responsible when a small hateful clique drives policy. The NEOCONS in the US come to mind. I despise their polices yet I am still somewhat responsible for them as they exist. Pointing out their obvious evil to people is very challenging in that regard.

Are the madmen challenging the madmen? Is the old global order breaking? Is Biden going to get embarrassed when he meets with the Saudis. Global war is not looking so good to a great deal of people. The SMO in the Ukraine sure opened a can of worms...
Rethinking the Global Order Jul 4, 2022 Turki bin Faisal al-Saud

Posted by: circumspect | Jul 5 2022 1:28 utc | 122

History Legends reviews the tactics and liberation of Lysychansk.

Seventeen minute utoob.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 5 2022 1:32 utc | 123

Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 1:22 utc

I want to read also these figures, not a "probably" based on wish not on facts.

Posted by: Peter | Jul 5 2022 1:33 utc | 124

Deployment of small nuclear generators would be a good thing.
by: John Dowser
---
Unicorns would be better.
by: too scents
---
And small nuclear unicorns would be best of all.

However we don't have any choice about adopting small nuclear.
That's where all that unicorn poop would come in handy. Fuel.

And maybe meat when the whole planet goes nuclear. Sure it's a bit gamey but... so is your Uncle Frank.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Jul 5 2022 1:35 utc | 125

Oh dear. Sorry b and everybody else, I only managed two hours our sleep in the last day and I have once again gone a bit loopy.

I shall henceforth remain quiet.
Do carry on... being smart people.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Jul 5 2022 1:38 utc | 126

Fusion power is still a long way off and realistically nuclear power is the only way we're going to fill the energy gap until then.

Posted by: MarkU | Jul 5 2022 0:03 utc | 101

Are you familiar with the JMCC Wing Generator? It was part of an award-winning entry at the Water Abundance XPRIZE competition of a few years ago. The wind-collecting portion of the device is like a hollow cylinder with a central shaft and many slats that run from the shaft to the inner surface of the cylinder, such that nearly all of the wind that goes through the cylinder makes contact with one or more slats and thereby turns the cylinder. It's discussed briefly at https://water.xprize.org/prizes/water-abundance/teams/jmcc_wing.

Posted by: David Levin | Jul 5 2022 1:39 utc | 127

the reserve currency is a very intersting and vast topic. the strongest empire always gets the benefits of having the reserve currency of choice. an empire can only be build when the politicial, the military and the financial sector work closely together under common goals. it takes a multi generational span of good leaders and workers, to build an empire. the government needs to invest in education and research, to push technical progress. as an investor, when you think the government is good and does a great job, you can buy bonds and get paid an interest to sponsor the endeavours. lots of countries might also invest in the empire and buy their bonds. when you do trade with the empire, you need to buy their currency, and since the empire is doing such a good job at what they do, you trust them the most from all the other countries, so always have a stash of their currency hidden and for a time when you need it.

this creates huge demand for the empires money, even outside their reach of power. through the high demand, the empire can print money without having notable increases in inflation. this allows the empire to spend more money than they have. that extra wiggle room allows for some more mistakes in investment and spending.

ray dalio made a very intersting piece about this called the new world order, you find in on youtube. he explains it by looking at the old empires like, the netherlands, england and the untited states. very intersting watch.

Posted by: calixtus | Jul 5 2022 1:44 utc | 128

watcher | Jul 5 2022 0:17 utc | 105

I placed wider goals on the first phase. Russian intel is very good.
Securing Crimea's water and Kerson region, land bridge, nukes, Bio labs, Azov and possibly nato in Mariupol. First phase ended when Mariupol was securely locked in.

This phase as you say to free Donetsk and Lughansk of Ukraine forces. At that stage I believe there will be a pause. Full demilitarization and denazification occurring after EU and US fully absorbed in domestic unrest due to the sanctions boomerang plus whatever sanction Ru brings on them.
Uk has warned their banks they are not too big to fail. Perhaps the Europeans will come to their senses but I doubt it. Sometime after the winter crunch comes the European banks will start to fail. Deutsche Bank is a weak link and if it goes down, it will have a domino effect on the US banks.
I think, prior to, but especially after the first phase, Russia has factored in western economic woes with the SMO.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 1:49 utc | 129

Peter | Jul 5 2022 1:33 utc | 123

Look up DPR stats. They have been linked here some time ago.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 2:02 utc | 130

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 1:49 utc | 128

Peter yes. I was trying to shortcut a bit. Phase 1 had all those objectives. I was including Kherson as part of the securing Crimea and the AZOV Sea.

Not sure if we have just finished stage 2 and about to start 3 or simply finishing stage 2. I am inclined to think completing securing LDP was almost as significant as Mariupol.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 5 2022 2:07 utc | 131

Oh dear. Sorry b and everybody else, I only managed two hours our sleep in the last day and I have once again gone a bit loopy.
I shall henceforth remain quiet.
Do carry on... being smart people.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Jul 5 2022 1:38 utc | 125

No I loved it :) Uncle Frank is gamey too LOL

Posted by: K | Jul 5 2022 2:08 utc | 132

watcher | Jul 5 2022 2:07 utc | 130

From what Putin said, I think phase two will be completed when all of Donetsk is liberated (I tend to think in that term as the ethnic Russians interviewed all look upon the Ukraine military as fascist occupying forces).
My impression is now that Ukraine forces have been weakened through attrition, Russia is stepping up offensive operations. Still part of phase two but stepping up the pace.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 2:17 utc | 133

David G Horsman | Jul 5 2022 1:35 utc | 124

Unicorn poop would no doubt create much methane to fire gas turbines and is far closer to reality than the west creating clean nuclear power.
Russia with its duel cycle technology is greatly reducing radioactive wast and China taking the lead in Fusion.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 2:24 utc | 134

Over at Mish Talk, there is discussion about the reported crash in German trade. It seems reasonable that this is mostly due to energy costs. If so, they may be doomed. As the engine of the EU zone, this could destroy the Euro - and if that happens, the sanctions picture will look a lot different - as well as NATO.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 5 2022 3:02 utc | 135

1st I like to thank the host(s) for this site. It's very difficult to find, nowadays, a site without the same propaganda songs.

2nd the are very interesting ideas posted here, so, I take my time to read as much as possible, when I have some time, and I thank the posters for that.

Posted by: Fred | Jul 5 2022 3:30 utc | 136

Peter AU1 @ 67

Agree. I think we are going to see a whole new concept of currency. One based on resources, labor and culture.
——-

In a post-globalization world China has an excess of urban industrialization and capital and the rural regions are still relatively poorer.

But the rural regions have a lot of resources and cultural practices including collectives that could be monetized and developed in an eco-friendly way by using this excess urban liquidity and well organized foreign investment. (Rather that this liquidity go into financial speculation)

China is considering using these national resources (rather than gold) as a peg for the yuan thus reconstituting monetary sovereignty.

This would lead China to have a more powerful internal economy and international trade would serve as a complement to this.

This is possible because the central government recognizes the importance of using its monopolized financial sector for community welfare. (Ten Crises)

Posted by: financial matters | Feb 4 2022 0:26 utc | 66

Posted by: financial matters | Jul 5 2022 3:45 utc | 137

I have a theory (speculation perhaps) that a very smart historian sitting in is University office (perhaps chatting with a group of similar friends) in Oxford or perhaps Harvard or the Sorbonne, in 1900, could have predicted this Ukrainian war or something similar give or take 20 years.

The thing is all empires have a limited life span. History seems to show that the top dog empire status (at least this millenium) lasts about 50 -150 years, bookended by 25-50 years of chaos/conflict/war as rivals squabble and jockey for power/gain. The empire's all have a trajectory that starts small - a city grows to control a province, a province a region, a region a nation, a nation absorbing its immediate neighbours, then launching itself as an expansive empire. First sign of a threat to the dominant empire is economic success. Once an emerging power is economically stronger than the dominant power it takes 25-50 years for it to emerge as the new dominant empire.

Look at the British Empire. It was the dominant world empire from about 1815, after finally defeating Napoleon and the 30 years of chaos that was the collapse of the French status as the dominant empire. Britain by threat stage was an economic giant, having both a dominant place in manufacturing but its empire, especially India as a huge economic resource. The supposedly long lasting British domination lasted just 100 years, and was followed by 30 years of chaos from 1915-1945, when the USA emerged from WWII and the dominant empire.

Prior to the French revolution in 1789, which started the 25 years of transition, the French had been the dominant European empire for 120 years, which had emerged after the defeat of Spain, again after a long period of conflict including the 30 years war. Spain also seems to have been the dominant empire for roughly 100 years, its period of chaos and decline starting about 1630.Sometime about 1550 Spain came to dominate over Portugal which had been dominant since about 1420 (say).

In each case it was the rise of economic strength that preceded military dominance, and the decline in relative economic strength that heralded a fall. of course there were always rivals, not always dominant, sometime the declining empire, sometime rising empires and sometimes regional powers who just do not quite make it (YET).

So back to our Oxford don of 1900. Knowing the history of empires our professor may have noted that the British Empire was about to lose its status as the economic power house, that being now the USA which with its colonial expansion and war victories had gown large in land and resources. our professor may have noticed increasing little conflicts - with Russia of course in Crimea, with Germany in Africa etc. But aware of history he may have predicted that the USA would emerge as top dog - sometime in the period 1940-1950. He may then have further speculated that 70-120, years later another period of chaos would begin, after the USA lost its economic dominance.

Well USA became top dog in 1945 and we are now almost 80 years into its reign at the top. In 1916 at the beginning of the UK period of chaos, USA overtook the British Empire. Around 2015 I think China actually became economically dominant, but it is clearly now more accepted. So if our Oxford Professor assumed an 80-120 period of reign at the top for the USA, he might have expected the change in economic dominance to herald 30 years of chaos and conflict. He may not have known just which empire would be the challenger. He might have guessed Germany, India, Japan, Canada, Persia or Russia but probably not China in 1900. However he would have predicted a period of chaos with rivalry and probably war somewhere between 2015 -2065, starting about the time the emerging power was economically stronger. China is now top dog economically.

My theory/speculation is that our period of chaos has begun, with Ukraine being the first installment. Trying to be more optimistic, it may be that the real conflict began in 2015 in Syria, so we a re already 7 years in. I hope so. I doubt i will live to see out 30 years of chaos. I might make 20 years.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 5 2022 3:51 utc | 138

@Bun | Jul 5 2022 1:05 utc | 116

Careful what you ascribe to all Canada. As a life-long Canadian, this statement is way over the top. I have never met anyone who neither remotely resembles a 'pro-fascist', much less a fanatical one, or is aggressively russophobic


I think all we need to say about ordinary Canadians is that propaganda works. A lot of people really don't seem to understand that the talking head on the TeeVee is lying to them, and those lies are in service of an agenda. And if you try pointing any of that out, with proof, people get angry. Because going against the dominant narrative is dangerous, in Canada same as everywhere else.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 5 2022 3:51 utc | 139

Since everyone has an opinion, so am I.

The way Russia methodically destroys everything NATO related, and the 'collective waste' I doubt this 'special operation' will be limited to east and south Ukraine. My guesstimate, is that at the end of the exercise, the 3 Baltic micro-states will be back in Russia, Poland will lose 2/3 of her country, Romania and Bulgaria, may be back on the chopping block, while the whole Scandinavia will be Russian.

The Russian said it will be a long war

Posted by: Fred | Jul 5 2022 3:52 utc | 140

Posted by: watcher | Jul 5 2022 3:51 utc | 137

"My theory/speculation is that our period of chaos has begun, with Ukraine being the first installment. Trying to be more optimistic, it may be that the real conflict began in 2015 in Syria, so we a re already 7 years in. I hope so. I doubt i will live to see out 30 years of chaos. I might make 20 years."

Very Spenglerian. But the length of the cycles might vary depending on the type of civilization. I remember reading Re-Orient by Andre Gunter Frank years ago in which he describes China's cycle as being 500 years up and 250 years down which has happened several times already. He said their down period started around 1750 - not coincidentally when New World silver and gold ended which he explains - so around 2000 they should be picking up steam again. Sounds about right. But they have until about 2500, not just 2150.....

It looks to me like this rising Eurasian civilization, especially if Europe at some point gets on board which I believe they will, has potential to last at least a millenium, though that doesn't mean it won't have several down cycles along the way. Am sad will not get to witness it....

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 5 2022 3:57 utc | 141

Russia Worn Down In Lisichansk

Intelligence expert says.

Must be Bellingcat UK via BoJo the Clown's Press Office.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jul 5 2022 4:00 utc | 142

If anything is in a cycle is the sun cycle of 11 years since on this rock we are ALL the kids of the sun (RA) Amun/Ra => Amen in ALL religions. :]

Posted by: Fred | Jul 5 2022 4:07 utc | 143

My apologies for dragging this discussion into the current thread. I feel it is generally at an impasse and I have no further comments about it. I just wanted to reply to a question to the poster "dfg."

@ NemesisCalling

FWIW

I’ve been skipping the back and forth between you and bevin. I used to always read comments from both of you, because I think you both have a lot to contribute. Either I’ve been skipping too much or bevin is reading more into your posts than I think is fair. Was there ever a time you said you like burning books or whatever other evil bevin accuses you of rationalizing? Or is your credit to the Third Reich limited to their early accomplishment in turning around a failed state?

Personally, I don’t credit them for turning things around, because AFAICT that was financed from the outside for the purpose of pointing them east to attack the USSR. But, I agree it’s open to debate, based on different sources. I don’t know enough either way.

Posted by: dfg | Jul 4 2022 11:24 utc | 270

Thx for the compliment.

I have leveled many thoughts about Trotskyists and how they operate in discussion in these back-and-forths.

Trotskyists, if anyone, would be the current book-burners. But I don't think any that haunt this bar would stoop that low.

Think of the ADL and the term "Anti-semitism." Think how people have been cancelled in their reputation and employment just for posting some uncouth thoughts or jokes on social media. Now think about the absolute "No-no" of mentioning anything admirable about the NSDAP. Indeed, academics have been let-go from their positions at university for giving the Nazis a fairer assessment. Also, the ninety year old lady in Germany who was somehow Nazi-affiliated and recently jailed comes to mind.

I am not a book-burner. I keep my child away from any type of Hollywood- degeneracy and speak frankly about the pernicious influence of organized Jewry in western finance and in Bolshevism, both past and present.

She is only eight years old. Lol! But I know the proper role of a parent is to guard them from thinking that leads invariably to globalist technicity and the assignment of the human soul into such a system.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jul 5 2022 4:14 utc | 144

Jimp, jumps in and quacks.. ...'' Climate change is once again afoot, whatever its cause'' Disinformation, FAKE NOOZ.

'Doctored Data, Not U.S. Temperatures, Set a Record This Year by James Taylor''

''EconLog. 1.6%, Not 97%, Agree that Humans are the
Main Cause of Global Warming. By David Henderson''

''The UK Telegraph in their ClimateGate Series exposed the U of East Anglia Climate Scientists, who were tasked with supplying the UN's IPCC with temperature data.. for having deliberately placed thermometers on rooftops next to hot air con outlets, on black tarmac car parks, in city centers and supplied many readings from Russian locations with NO thermometers''.

There are 3 basic climate science principles: -1) Climate science is in it's absolute infancy.-2)The climate is so complex it is impossible to model or predict. -3)The inherent complexity ensure it will always be changing and nothing man does impacts that.

Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is the highest it’s been in nine years, increasing more than 30% from last year, while the Antarctic’s level is well above normal. Most years the Arctic loses ice, but this year ice extent has increased” more than 77,000 square miles. That’s according to the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility’s High Latitude Processing Center. 2020.


The Antarctic interior recorded its coldest April-to-September this year since records began in 1957. According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), the average temperature at the US Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station was minus 60.9ºC for the six months. It was also the station’s second coldest winter (June, July and August) on record, with an average seasonal temperature of minus 62.9ºC. This was an extraordinary 3.4ºC below the long-term average (1881-2010) for winter. 2021.

Posted by: Thomas Turk | Jul 5 2022 4:15 utc | 145

@Fred | Jul 5 2022 3:52 utc | 139

That's as good an opinion as any, I think you have a good chance of being right. Russia is fighting Ukraine/NATO's army, not for territory. It stands to reason that so long as Ukraine/NATO keep sending their armies to fight Russia, Russia will keep destroying them and advancing. There is no reason whatsoever to suppose they will stop at some river or at the borders of Ukraine. If NATO keeps fighting, Russia will fight them all the way to Berlin or Paris. They'll worry about what to do with the territory they covered after the fighting is over.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 5 2022 4:15 utc | 146

financial matters | Jul 5 2022 3:45 utc | 136 "One based on resources, labor and culture."

I had not thought about labor and culture but I think you are correct. Education standards of the workforce is relevant, as is numbers, and all I see in the so called west is cultural - and along with it educational - destruction.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 4:17 utc | 147

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 5 2022 3:57 utc | 140

I rather think it is more to do with the era and travel time. Things seem to move faster. But yes some societies seem more inherently stable.

I was specifically euro-centric in my analysis, since they have been top dogs for the last 500 years. I do not think China has been in the empire stakes seriously since the collapse of the Ming dynasty. the Quing were mongol invaders.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 5 2022 4:18 utc | 148

@ Kingsmeg
Russia also said that they want NATO borders where they were in 1991
That statement, from last year, it's often overlooked. In 1991 NONE of the former EASTERN European countries were in the NATO. So, ALL the new entries are now in danger.

Posted by: Fred | Jul 5 2022 4:27 utc | 149

Good morning barflies, as the day breaks - there is nothing much NEW under the Sun as the saying goes - the world turns as always and what goes round, comes around as another saying goes.

On the New Multipolar Trading Currency.
There is some lack of understanding here.
I’ll try to direct us in a fruitful direction by just considering the trajectory of the Euro.

Simply - prior to it being launched as a EURO it was a ECU which was the result of the years of EMU., which was a BASKET of currencies whose exchange rates were kept in sync using various financial levers to enable the Snake_in_the_tunnel towards a stable emergence of the Euro.

Funnily enough the Ecu was also the ancient coinage of the emergent French Empire nearly a mile noun ago
‘ Écu (from Latin scutum) means shield, and the coin was so called because its design included the coat of arms of France. The word is related to Catalan escut, Italian scudo or Portuguese Castilian escudo. In English, the écu was often referred to as the crown.[2]’

There will be the new currency and if the EU is not careful it will miss out on being part of that, based on its evolution so far, ie to not be tied to the Yankee dollar.

That is why the Ancient Money has been so desperate to grab the real wealth of EurAsia for half a millennium. That is why the repeated attempts at invading Russia with mercenaries and proxies.

I will repeat my refrain - Everything goes back to understanding the emergence of ‘Money’ and wtf it really is..

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 5 2022 4:32 utc | 150

‘Hell on earth’: Ukrainian soldiers describe eastern front

"Torched forests and cities burned to the ground. Colleagues with severed limbs. Bombardments so relentless the only option is to lie in a trench, wait and pray.

Ukrainian soldiers returning from the front lines in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region — where Russia is waging a fierce offensive — describe life during what has turned into a grueling war of attrition as apocalyptic.

In interviews with The Associated Press, some complained of chaotic organization, desertions and mental health problems caused by relentless shelling. Others spoke of high morale, their colleagues’ heroism, and a commitment to keep fighting, even as the better-equipped Russians control more of the combat zone.

Lt. Volodymyr Nazarenko, 30, second-in-command of the Ukrainian National Guard’s Svoboda Battalion, was with troops who retreated from Sievierodonetsk under orders from military leaders. During a month-long battle, Russian tanks obliterated any potential defensive positions and turned a city with a prewar population of 101,000 into “a burnt-down desert,” he said."

"One of the soldiers said he smokes marijuana daily. “Otherwise, I would lose my mind, I would desert. It’s the only way I can cope” he said."

Once you remove the Ukie self-serving optimistic bullshit it gives a pretty good description of what its like to be own the receiving end of the Russian offensive capabilities.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 5 2022 4:39 utc | 151

There is only one way Russia can avoid big war, if you ask me: It is by informing the U.S. that retaliation for an attack on Russian soil by any European NATO-country will be directed against the boss itself, the U.S.A.

Posted by: Cunctator | Jul 5 2022 4:41 utc | 152

@Posted by: Thomas Turk | Jul 5 2022 4:15 utc | 144

With the usual Western imperialist trolls we have to add the climate change trolls, what a busy day on B's blog! Yes, lets pick random localized events and extrapolate unscientifically and ignore variations/noise within a trend to make some utterly ignorant science-denying bullshit statements. That's why I stick to global measurements of greenhouse gases (NOAA) and average surface temperatures over time (NASA GISS), which show a perfectly clear trend.

And don't start with the complete bullshit on completely normal scientific adjustments being "cheating" of some form, or sunspots, or the fact that millions of years ago it was hotter (yes it was, with the exact same greenhouse gases being the culprit - just not anthropologically sourced that time), or whatever else rubbish from climate denial website or scientists from other areas of research who haven't got an effing clue what they are talking about, or the very limited number of absolute charlatans - like this sorry bunch:

https://www.beforetheflood.com/explore/the-deniers/top-10-climate-deniers/

I will not be wasting any more time with your rubbish, as I have found out in previous attempts at education that ignorance, obstinacy and evasiveness seem to go together when it comes to anthropogenic climate change denial.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 5 2022 4:58 utc | 153

@Fred | Jul 5 2022 4:27 utc | 148

Russia also said that they want NATO borders where they were in 1991
That statement, from last year, it's often overlooked. In 1991 NONE of the former EASTERN European countries were in the NATO. So, ALL the new entries are now in danger.

I believe they said 1997, but the point stands. This isn't something the West ever talks about, but Putin made a perfectly serious peace overture back in December while Russia was preparing for this war. His proposals would have cost the West nothing, and would have guaranteed peace and prosperity to Europe and Asia at least until something else kills us all. Of course he knew USA wouldn't even consider peace, that's just the nature of the beast.

But what people miss is that those demands were non-negotiable. They represent the minimum conditions Russia will accept for the sake of their own safety, after 500 years of the West attacking Russia and the current Empire of Lies doing everything they can to start WW3, arming and financing Nazis in Ukraine and terrorists by another name everywhere else. Simply put, everyone else in the world wants peace, but USA stands alone in being willing to risk everything to make sure we get more war instead. It makes one wonder what sort of people are calling the shots, and whether they have a long game or a death wish.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 5 2022 4:59 utc | 154

The Americans may lack the ability to look objectively at the world, but they are great realists when it comes to weapons.

Posted by: Cunctator | Jul 5 2022 5:07 utc | 155

@ DunGroanin,

Since, a good part of this thread was devoted to the basket currencies, I have my 2 cents as well :]

A simple exchange system is barter, i.e. I give you a bag of potatoes, and in EXCHANGE you help me fix the barn. The idea is simple and straight forward. The issue is that is NOT efficient for me to go around with a bag of potatoes in the hope that I'll find someone to take it and come and fix my barn.

This is why markets were invented. We ALL meet in an open place and see who has what and how can exchange them. With the markets, another issue arises, volume, now, I have 100 bags of potatoes to sell, and 7 buyers, but only one barn to fix. Thus, the need to store wealth for later use. Humanity used anything tangible to store wealth, from big rocks to gold and diamonds (because they are shiny).

The issue with storing wealth is that we have NO constant, no point of support, everything is moving, and the further we go from the initial barter the more complicated, and prone to stealing and manipulation. Is it gold, oil, wealth, uranium, or some promissory note with fancy printing?

Here is my point.
Since, we have no point of support, the only way to stay afloat is to weave a blanket made of everything that we consider valuable, from say top 50-100 countries, and use that as ever-changing CONSTANT blanket.

Posted by: Fred | Jul 5 2022 5:09 utc | 156

kingsmeg @153
long game for them, very short game for everyone else.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Jul 5 2022 5:10 utc | 157

Drugs seem to be part of daily meal for regular soldiers, nazis and zelli himself. This surely comes from nato ideas. And you can only imagine the propaganda they see on starlink internet. The western leaders are playing in a movie for them and they play in another movie for the western population

Posted by: rk | Jul 5 2022 5:15 utc | 158

I will not try to predict anything here, anyway I am too old to absolutely care, but in my opinion (what it is worth) we are slowly going down the drain. Ya know, like a kitchen sink that is partly blocked.
We are ruled by a class of "elites", self-appointed elites, like Boris the Bum and Mackerel (French guy who has a good-looking, but old wife) but he has no clue, she probably has.
And then we have in Germany some Private Schulz or something, like in The Good Soldier Švejk, a complete ignorant moron. You get my notion if you are more than 30 years old.
Eventually the Elite will hang (if they are lucky) or like Romania, the Ceaușescus did not have a peaceful ending. But shit happens and will happen again. We will meet again, credits Vera Lynn, which became a symbol in Denmark. A very, very potent symbol, My Great grandad told me how they would illegally tune in on BBC.
Sigh, the old BBC is no more, once a voice of freedom, now a voice of western oligarks, Alphabet group and others, F**k them.

Posted by: Den Lille Abe | Jul 5 2022 5:16 utc | 159

"Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev declared a state of emergency in the region and dropped plans to introduce constitutional amendments that would deprive Karakalpakstan of the status of a sovereign republic within Uzbekistan and the right to secede from the country through a referendum."

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 4 2022 23:21 utc | 99

Now what kind of idiot would stick his foot right into something like that?

(I'm crying.)

Posted by: John Kennard | Jul 5 2022 5:18 utc | 160

DunGroanin @149

yes. the west is desperate for those resources. such a handy part of ruling the world.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Jul 5 2022 5:21 utc | 161

These zealots ought to be called out for what they are, and have it made clear that they do not speak for me or anyone else but their own hateful clique.

Posted by: Bun | Jul 5 2022 1:05 utc | 116

These zealots should all be arrested as foreign agents, you mean? or are you just thinking of a good tongue-lashing to make them cry?

Posted by: John Kennard | Jul 5 2022 5:28 utc | 162

@Posted by: Fred | Jul 5 2022 5:09 utc | 155

Actual barter is a very limited system, usually in place after the break down of a monetary system. Before money there were many types of credit, also many objects used as a currency basis, and coins were brought into being by the state through forcing payment of taxes in coins. The ahistoric fairy tales told by mainstream economists, and their text books, have been repeatedly disproven by actual historians. Same with markets and unencumbered property, which rely on the state and were historically socially embedded in customs and practice that limited price gouging, loss of social and common use etc.

One of the best books on debt is "Debt, The First 5,000 years" by William Graeber. Elinor Ostrom is excellent on common land management before the elites and colonial authorities stole it. What we know now as "property" has really only existed for 200-300 years in the West, "Earth Into Property" by Anthony J Hall is a huge book, but an incredible history of the creation of the thing we call "property".

Posted by: Roger | Jul 5 2022 5:40 utc | 163

@ Roger,

I work with people, so, I know that sending them to a book or even an internet reference is a waste of time. THUS, I try to make any complicated issue a trivial one. Plus, the finance world it's unnecessary complicated anyway.

Posted by: Fred | Jul 5 2022 5:46 utc | 164

For a little Russian humor, Zelensky giving unconditional surrender speech and signing document.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1544122725173760002?cxt=HHwWhMC4uf_b6e0qAAAA

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 6:11 utc | 165

Fred 5:46 utc @ 162

Hudson's "and forgive them their debts: lending, foreclosure, and redemption from bronze age finance to the jubilee year" provides some good background on the history of money in the fertile crescent/middle east...not an easy read as there are a lot of repetitive details as he moves through different eras and ruling dynasties through thousands of years, but it shows the roots of our current system in a simpler form and makes a good case for a modern jubilee. Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Jul 5 2022 6:15 utc | 166

Roger | Jul 5 2022 5:40 utc | 162
Early coinage is interesting in that the metals the coins were made of were commodities but acted as a currency when made into coins. Somewhat like proof stamped bullion.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 6:17 utc | 167

The notices are a conservative "as-is" effort and shouldn't be treated as an absolute, or at least I don't think the Russian MoD considers it more than a consistent best effort indicator of the level of activity/fighting, a kind of "what we did today" running update.

The rationale for withholding almost all information about ones own forces and equipment should be self explanatory.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 5 2022 6:24 utc | 168

In 6 days, both lines of Nord Stream will be closed for routine maintenance. It is supposed to finish by the 21st July. Will the pipeline reopen is the question. Meanwhile, the German VD Leyen is talking about a 7th packet of sanctions against Russia...maybe, the Germans would stop taking showers...?

Posted by: ostro | Jul 5 2022 7:21 utc | 169

Whatever Turkey may or may not be able to do with regard to Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO over the coming months, it has certainly bought some crucial time. If it had been smooth sailing for those two countries over the past six weeks, I doubt the Russian victory in Lysychansk would be so monumental.

And the crux of their NATO membership is this: whereas Sweden and Finland could operate in NATO as a defensive alliance as long as they kept themselves out of it on paper, they have turned the alliance into an unquestiobably offensive pact with the border only a few hundred km from St Petersburg. But here is the other point: after Lysychansk at least the optics have completely changed. Regardless of what defensive importance NATO membership may ultimately have, it is now in Russia's interest to attack Finland and Sweden which should not even be that hard, judging by the way the mere smo in Ukraine is going: the mayor of one city in the southeastern part of Finland has already offered to host a NATO base there, wjich goes to show the stupidity of this all.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 5 2022 7:32 utc | 170

Posted by: ostro | Jul 5 2022 7:21 utc | 168

Seems like some entrepreneur should start marketing deodorant for Germany. Sales should be good. Probably room fragrances also to conceal the stink. Market it as "From Russia with Love"

Posted by: watcher | Jul 5 2022 7:45 utc | 171

Peter AU1 #164

For a little Russian humor, Zelensky giving unconditional surrender speech and signing document.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1544122725173760002?cxt=HHwWhMC4uf_b6e0qAAAA


Thank you, I have filled a glass of shiraz to toast the occasion.

Well at least toast the victory so far. Luhansk liberated on 4th July what a good omen.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 5 2022 7:53 utc | 172

I see where people say that having the reserve currency requires you to run a trade deficit. As if that’s a bad thing. Which it may well be. But traditionally that was seen as you being able to live high on the hog consuming more than you produced. Imposing a kind of voluntary slavery on other nations. In extremis you could produce nothing at all except pretty pictures on pieces of paper. Some credible figures - to me, at any rate - suggest that the US fought the Vietnam war for free. Mind you, since war was never declared that was likely an SMO? Vladimir seems to get this. And doesn’t want the US fighting wars for free.

Posted by: FRBanking | Jul 5 2022 7:56 utc | 173

The one who advances and conquers territory is the one with fewer casualties, while the one who retreats and loses territory is the one with most casualties.

Phase 1: Russia fast advance (but not conquer in North), Ukraine still with complete army, but needing to hide in cities, with many chances to make sabotage operations but no strenght for counter-attacks.
CASUALTIES: 1351 for Russia, probably 3x to 4x more for Ukraine.

Phase 2: Russia with slow and steady advance, conquering territory for good, lots of artillery fighting. Ukraine no longer with best armie alive, with most weapons/vehicles destroyed, needing to draft more cannon fodder for front-line trenches/bunkers just to slow Russian advance.
CASUALTIES: from a 1-3 or 1-4 ratio, it has probably turned to a 1-30 or 1-40 ratio before Popasnaya liberation, and then to a 1-300 or 1-400 ratio since then. Ukraine has 300 to 400 deaths per day (sometimes even more, and up to 1000 lost soldiers (dead + injured, awol, pow).

24-Feb to 31-Mar: 1-3 = 1351 for Russia, ~4000 for Ukraine

Then relative calm after end of phase 1, with many positional artillery battles, while Russian troops re-located from North to Donbass.

15-Apr to Popasnaya: 1-30 = from 150 to 350 a deaths/day for Ukraine, so from 5 to 10 deaths/day for Russia.
That's up to 10k a month for Ukraine, and up to 500 for Russia.

Popasnaya until 3-July (Russia reaching Lugansk border): 1-300 = from 300 to 600 deaths/day for Ukraine, so from 1 to 2 deaths/day for Russia.
That's up to 20k deaths a month for Ukraine, and up to 100 for Russia.

The totals? I have no idea, someone else do the math... But from a competitive war, this has evolved to complete slaughter, even of Ukraine's deaths are a bit inflated, and my estimates for Russia are a bit too low. I must not be far from the reality of magnitudes and ratios.

What I know is this: at this rate, if Ukraine had a decent President, he would have already started peace talks, in order to lose the minimum amount of territory possible, and save lives.

But, as we know, instead of this, Ukraine has a clown, in the hands of Kolomoisky, Azov/Right Sector, EU/NATO in general and USA's NeoCon oligarchy in parricular.
Each of those pulls a different string of the puppet.

Next comes Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, bastions of Ukraine offensive in Donetsk oblast. Russia might "stall" again, like it did in Popasnaya and Rubezhnoe (North of Severodonetsk), but now we all know what is happening: grinding cannon fodder and looking for the next Popasnaya-like opening that threatens encirclement, and forces all that's left of AFU to retreat away from trenches, under fire-control (target practicing for Russia's artillery and tanks) and with similar or even higher number of deaths.

And after this, comes a flat terrain without any substantial military obstacles (like 8-year old trench system in Donbass) until Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporijia, Kharkiv, Nikolaev, and Odessa, one at a time.

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 5 2022 8:09 utc | 174

Ukrainian troops are already seen running away on civilian stolen cars, or by foot. An army that started with thousands of armored vehicles! Almost all gone!
An army that fights more and more with just drones, because it lost its aircrafts and helicopters.
And army that crosses rivers on small inflatable boats or swimming.
And army that lost hundreds of MLRS, but whose propaganda says that with 14 HIMARS (basically MLRS on trucks instead of tanks) they will finally counter-attack...

Western leaders know damn well they are KILLING Ukrainians for nothing (ues, some are NAZI, but many are normal, just like any of us here). This is what happens when "elites" want power/money and decide (with no popular vote) thay war happen and go on for as long as possible: the little guy dies. And all this because of a EU membership, or more profit for the MIC. How can Western people be so blind? These leaders must all be gone!!!

The sad part is that some poll shows Ukrainians support the continuation of this, to "defend our land". This irrationality is called "nationalism". Only nationalist propaganda can make people think land is worth more than life. And that's why USA/Canada started funding Banderist movement in Ukraine since at least the end of Soviet Union. More than 5 billion $, said NeoCon Victoria Nuland. All of that to make sure that, after the coup, there would be hate and nationalism enough to support war near the border of Russia.

Hell would be too good for these NeoCon criminals that are at this moment enjoying their luxury in Washington (paid by MIC). This ideology should be compared to Nazism, and forbidden!

And United Nations should forbid the existence of non-State companies in the military industry. Because if building tanks and missiles is a profitable business, then someon will always make sure there is a war somewhere.

Either that, or the world will only have peace once USA has regime change. And no, I'm not talking about changing blues with reds, Bidens with Trumps, NeoCons with NeoLibs. Those are all just different faces of the same problem!
I mean ACTUAL regime change. A popular revolution. Secession movements. Someone breaking the wheel like Daenerys Targaryen did, but without dragons ;-)

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 5 2022 8:17 utc | 175

Posted by: FRBanking | Jul 5 2022 7:56 utc | 172

I see you are a fan of MMT..........weird !

You should look at Full Absorption Aspects of Balance of Payments and effects on Domestic Credit Creation. This is how USA has ended up exporting its core industries, privatising parking meters in Chicago, selling US corporations to China and Japan........and destroying its industrial cities.

The Elite live very well and the rest get to live in tents.

The USA is a prime example of a nation which lived high on the hog for 20 years postwar on stolen German patents and emerged in 1970s as a basket case.

The Reserve Currency Status of USA was lost 1971 but persuaded OPEC to pretend its oil surpluses were US dollar surpluses thus propping up London and New York and hollowing out manufacturing - the rise of Blackrock and JPM and Goldman is linked to these policies

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 5 2022 8:22 utc | 176

Annie, Dan of Steele, all of you.

I just logged on to see this serendipitous coincidence.

The previous thread from Bernhard has how many comments?

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b at 12:53 UTC | Comments (404)

Posted by: jonku | Jul 5 2022 8:26 utc | 177

Annie, Dan of Steele, all of you.

I just logged on to see this serendipitous coincidence.

The previous thread from Bernhard has how many comments?

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b at 12:53 UTC | Comments (404)

Posted by: jonku | Jul 5 2022 8:26 utc | 178

In hindsight, the moment war became a certainty was when Biden says there will be no North stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine, and Scholz acquiesces.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 5 2022 8:30 utc | 179

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 5 2022 8:09 utc | 173

Not that Ukies have not been practically throwing their best men at the Russians, whether Russians advance or not.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 5 2022 8:37 utc | 180

The USA is a prime example of a nation which lived high on the hog for 20 years postwar on stolen German patents and emerged in 1970s as a basket case.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 5 2022 8:22 utc | 175

The US still seems to be needing something from Germany. What is it? And if the US is a basket case, why does everyone pretend it is not? I guess the answer is its miltary "might" which is now taking a beating credibility-wise (presumably along with its currency though I don't see that happening). Could it be that Nato expansion is a Ponzi scheme in a very real sense?


Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 5 2022 8:44 utc | 181

https://twitter.com/VasilijProzorov/status/1544199781794385920?cxt=HHwWgMC4gaThjO4qAAAA
The Ukrainian government has just commissioned stamps of Roman Szuchewycz who was the main commander of UPA during the Wołyn genocide.

Over this period of time up to 100,000 Poles were massacred in the name of Greater Ukraine.


Some days back, the Ukraine ambassador to Germany in a media interview painted Bandera in a very good light. Israel and Poland were officially pissed off.
If the above is correct... this will be like watching a brawl within a drunken lynch mob. I would guess the Galacian peasants have just put the seal on Polish retakeover of their dung hill. Dumb as the Kurds.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 9:00 utc | 182

Finland has just 5.5 million population, most of which lives in the larger cities next to the Baltic sea border. Some European fools (leaders) think that by gaining Finland to NATO, it gets more than 1200kms of border with Russia. Well, it is not the southern border of the US, but a bloody cold useless terrain. I'd like to imagine a NATO soldier from Texas, or some Brit from Wales fighting in minus 35-50 Centigrade, and how Australian Bushmasters or US Himars start their engines even. 😏

Posted by: ostro | Jul 5 2022 9:02 utc | 183

> because it would move along its trajectory before the next row of pixels is read.

Posted by: S | Jul 5 2022 0:15 utc | 104

I reember shooting a car running 10 meters from me, on a phone like 15 years ago (sensor phone lLy SX210, it was considered top model of the brand, they also styles it as Fly Hummer HT1 in 2008) - and the car was badly tilted. The wheels seemed to be like a meter before the roof. Granted, the car was a centered half of the frame, and the camera speed was never stellar in that phone.

Since the missile flies yet faster methinks this tilting effect then should be even more visible, especially when the missile is not some 3-5 px dash but "occupies 11.6% of frame height."

Posted by: Arioch | Jul 5 2022 9:17 utc | 184

Its also interesting to look at the Arctic on the Globe, to see how vulnerable Japan is and the US from the far end of Russia, and how vulnerable UK is from western Arctic. Murmansk, by the way, is a fortress. Russia has nuclear powered ships and building them more.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 5 2022 9:18 utc | 185

PeterAU1 #181

The Ukrainian government has just commissioned stamps of Roman Szuchewycz who was the main commander of UPA during the Wołyn genocide.

Over this period of time up to 100,000 Poles were massacred in the name of Greater Ukraine.

Please, don't anybody assassinate Zelensky. He is too good. I just hope he survives until captured by the liberation forces and put on trial. Not that you could believe a word that he says. Then deliver him to the Cossacks for management. Do those Polish politicians still want to abolish the border?

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 5 2022 9:19 utc | 186

Please, don't anybody assassinate Zelensky.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 5 2022 9:19 utc | 185
-----------------------

No, he is to be kept alive...for the war tribunal...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 5 2022 9:25 utc | 187

Posted by: ostro | Jul 5 2022 9:18 utc | 184

The way I see it, the recent kerfuffle between Norway and the Russians in Svalbard, has to do with the domination of the Arctic Sea. Which, by the way, was the reason Trump wanted to buy Greenland from Denmark. Russia is not stupid however. That is why they kicked the Japanese out of Sakhalin in the Russian Far East the other day.

The reason the Arctic region is a hot potato is that it is becoming...hotter. Which is due to the climate change (whether man-made or not but Russia realizes it is a fact, with all that ice melting).

And yes, the Finnish border may be too cold for some but it, too, is part of this shift to the Arctic.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 5 2022 9:27 utc | 188

If one look at the entrances of the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic, if the get blocked by Russian Navy one way or other, few countries in Europe gets stuck. Russia has other means to the oceans.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 5 2022 9:39 utc | 189

Economic Pessimism - on the National Bank of Ukraine's Decision to Raise the Interest Rate to 25%

Translation of a facebook post by the Ukrainian economic expert Aleksey Kusch. The NBU announced this decision on the 2nd of June - it will be the highest interest rate since 2015, when the IMF-curated ‘independent national bank’ set an interest rate of 30%. One note to this article - Kusch notes that the fixed exchange rate will make it difficult to tame inflation. Today, news emerged that the NBU is planning to return the hryvnia to a floating exchange rate.

This is when the decisions of the government or the National Bank in the rear destroy the remaining pockets of the country's economic potential.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/economic-pessimism-on-the-national

Posted by: too scents | Jul 5 2022 9:44 utc | 190

46

As I thought Joe ...

You don't have a clue.

I suggest you avail yourself of some of the expertise on this forum ... you might reformulate an opinion or two.

Posted by: crone | Jul 4 2022 20:56 utc | 51

I think claiming expertise might be a triffle arrogant, what the forum mostly has are entrenched opinions and links to others opinions. Mr B has the most interesting thoughts. Mr six-pack just seems to enjoy stirring you all.

Let's recall this forum pushed the idea that covid was deadly and the misnamed vaccines the solution. The Pfizer dump put paid to that delusion.

Posted by: Organic | Jul 5 2022 9:45 utc | 191

and about Snake Island: many have been wondering about the "much ado about nothing" on Snake Island. The fact is Snake Island is an important line of demarcation between Uki and Romania. Whoever can claim it, can pretty much claim the rest of the Uki coastline.

There is also a decision by the International Court of Justice. It said that Snake Island is not really an island, hence the state that possesses it cannot claim territorial waters and the other zones around it, which would pretty much block the Danube and all the other stuff. that decision concerned a dispute between Uki and Romania but Russia might think differently.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 5 2022 10:00 utc | 192

Bun | Jul 5 2022 1:05 utc | 116

would you happen to be the spouse of hamburger? I remember meeting you all those years ago in Altona. all the best to you both.

Jonku, nice catch. maybe b can block the comments so that number stays the same.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jul 5 2022 10:04 utc | 193

The hope-n-cope in the responses to this Robin Brooks tweet is amazing.

Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world. While Germany now seeks new energy suppliers, its trade balance and that of the Euro zone will look ugly. That's all...

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1543997088610111488

Posted by: too scents | Jul 5 2022 10:04 utc | 194

It's obvious that Mr/Ms Organic #190 lives among sun flowers and is not acquainted with any medical professionals nor have stayed in any hospital to talk with nurses about their experience during these two years.

"pushed the idea that covid was deadly", that's not an idea, asshat, morgues were filled to the top and patients were dying like flies. Please, go hug some tree and thank Pacha Mama for your good fortune.

Posted by: Ricardo Ramirez | Jul 5 2022 10:11 utc | 195

SDR (Special Drawing Rights) of IMF is an accounting currency composed of several currencies including yuan as of late. IMF holds its capital in proportion. It’s purpose is to provide liquidity.

I assume that the new BRICS currency will be similar. It can help in the native currencies trade. It could facilitate the central banks currency swaps by providing agreed upon exchange rates.

When I see economic statistics in other currency than dollar than I’ll know that the end of dollar as a reserve currency arrived.

There is a paradox in the dollar status. The trade and current balance deficits allow on one hand for the US to rob the rest of the world, and on the other hand provide enough dollars for dollar to be a reserve currency. The size of the US economy provides sufficient liquidity.

Apparently many central banks increase their holdings in yuan. But is there enough yuan available. China would have to start printing more of it, that is make it available. How? Maybe by paying for its imports in yuan. It’s problematic because this could lead to shortage of yuan capital domestically unless central bank creates more money. China is a surplus country. However, the size of the economy can ensure liquidity.

Russia demanding payments rubles is a good move. However, for now it’s symbolic. What does Gasprom bank do with those Euros? It has to sell it. For what? There is not enough rubles in the open market. Russian Central Bank has a very tight monetary policy and due to sanctions cannot participate in this transaction. Maybe for yuan? Or Swiss frank or yen if RCB can hold those currencies. Then exchange those for rubles at the RCB. In the future ruble might be an important currency. However rather relatively minor due to the size of the Russian economy.

As Roger says it’ll take some time for a competing monetary system to arise. And as Paul Greenwood mentioned the reserve currency country has to run a deficit unless a new system is designed. We’ll see what the future brings.

Posted by: RB | Jul 5 2022 10:13 utc | 196

I see that the awareness of the exploitation of the artic regions and especially its transportation routes are being seen by bf’s.

The 5+1 eyes expect to use their northern regions for one pole and southern regions for the other.

Much financial power resides in these continents- way way above what there should be...

A question for our Canadian friends - where exactly did the WW2 Nazis get housed in their tens of thousands? Do you even know that full history?

How did you miss these communities and their Nazi ideologies and memorabilia? Why is that not so faraway history still being hidden? When are you going to sort your ‘house’ out?etc

I understand it is a massive country with a tiny population so it is easy to hide herds of elephants in that room! A bit like Australia...it isn’t a coincidence that the likes of Murdochs Nazi International and Blackrock have come out of there. As DS data warehouser for many countries and postal vote manipulation giant CGI is based in Canada with some very obscure founders.

Some commonality in antediluvian attitudes of Imperial settlements - White Mischief didn’t fade with African make believe independencies - so many remain Sin-dependent.


Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 5 2022 10:24 utc | 197

[VIDEO] IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explains the neoliberal's fear of fragmentation.

Fragmentation is a fancy term for the end of globalization.

https://twitter.com/IMFNews/status/1543584593944711169

Posted by: too scents | Jul 5 2022 10:25 utc | 198

Arioch | Jul 5 2022 9:17 utc | 183

The two things that stood out in that incident was the clarity of a very high speed missile in two frames of the video and Ukraine/US/UK not showing any drone shots in the direct aftermath of the back right corner of the building. No pics of the crater.
I watched several different drone videos and none would go near the back of the building.
No pics of firefighters upwind at the base of the flames which was the back of the building.

From pics it does look to have been a blast at the rear right corner but Ukraine (US/UK) seem to be trying to cover it up rather than exploit it?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 10:31 utc | 199

DunGroanin | Jul 5 2022 10:24 utc | 196

Perfidious albion and her children. Then there's the commonwealth. Like an old hag digging her claws into those pulling away.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2022 10:41 utc | 200

« previous page | next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.