Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 03, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-102

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on July 3, 2022 at 12:53 UTC | Permalink

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Does it really matter if you are in NATO? Look at Ireland. As I understand it Fin/Swe have been de facto Russophobic for decades. A sort of "Who are we neutral against?" type of a stance.

Posted by: PhilSheridan | Jul 3 2022 13:20 utc | 1

Shoigu reports LNR territory is completely liberated!! Huge congratulations, again!
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/18262

Posted by: ptb | Jul 3 2022 13:20 utc | 2

Putin demanded emergency powers - General mobilization plan - Lukashenko talks about nuclear weapons use!
Putin hastily passes a special law calling for emergency powers for Russia's armed forces. The bill talks about a general conscription plan while putting the defense industry in a "state of war" and asking them to work 24 hours a day with no holidays and three shifts!

This is a bad development not only for the course of the war in Ukraine. Especially because the Russian leadership is preparing to expand the war outside Ukraine. The bill refers to "military operations abroad" with a focus on Ukraine, but sets the stage for Kaliningrad and the Baltics.

can anyone confirm this? The news comes from a Greek website, i had it translated with deepl.

https://warnews247.gr/ektakto-o-v-poutin-zitise-ektaktes-exousies-gia-epektasi-syrraxis-triplovardies-stin-amyntiki-viomichania-geniki-epistratefsi//

Posted by: pitcher | Jul 3 2022 13:21 utc | 3

Washington Post had a story today about the successful use of the HIMARS missile system by Ukrainian forces. So... more war propaganda? Or will these be game changers for the Ukrainians? (Will the Russians be able to take them out?)

Posted by: Joe | Jul 3 2022 13:35 utc | 4

@2
"Does it really matter if you are in NATO? Look at Ireland. As I understand it Fin/Swe have been de facto Russophobic for decades. A sort of "Who are we neutral against?" type of a stance. "

You are correct, Russophobic = nato. But if they're so Russophobic why they were not allowed to have referendum for nato like the other countries? They've lost control of their own land and army overnight, with no vote.

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2022 13:36 utc | 5

the successful use of the HIMARS missile system by Ukrainian forces

Not likely to say they are useless are they ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 3 2022 13:54 utc | 6

My my, looks like some people in Poland did not swallow the MSM propaganda they were so graciously served the last 3 months.

https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1543260828731723776

Posted by: Tom_12 | Jul 3 2022 14:16 utc | 7

Joe @5 mentioned this:
"Because it is such a precise, longer-range system, Ukrainians are able to carefully select targets that will undermine the effort by Russia in a more systematic way, certainly than they would be able to do with the shorter-range artillery systems," the Pentagon official said further.

Six 200-pound rockets slammed into the Russian position, largely destroying it, said Lt. Koval, who commands 2 HIMARS batteries (launchers). The Russian base was one of about 10 high-value positions Lt. Koval says Ukraine has hit in the 2 weeks since taking charge of the systems pic.twitter.com/vEVjsbFJGJ
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 2, 2022

I hope these are taken out soon, since I suspect they work almost as well as the propaganda?

Posted by: T Paine | Jul 3 2022 14:23 utc | 8

An article tries to answer the mystery of Russia's failure to use massive airpower in Ukraine.

Awkward questions: air supremacy over Ukraine and its consequences
24 2022 June
https://en.topwar.ru/198065-neudobnye-voprosy-gospodstvo-v-vozduhe-nad-ukrainoj-i-ego-posledstvija.html

"Does the Russian Air Force have strategic air supremacy over Ukraine, allowing Russian aircraft to freely strike throughout the entire depth of its territory?

The answer is likely to be no, and there are a number of reasons for this."

Posted by: Saggy | Jul 3 2022 14:24 utc | 9

Posted by: Tom_12 | Jul 3 2022 14:16 utc | 8

An extra detail to that protest that I just spotted in a tweet.

"I seen this on many news channels on telegram, they all said the same that it was a pro BRICS rally but today I see new videos from the same rally saying "There is Polish here, not Ukropol," some protesters chanted.

so now I am not sure what the rally was about. "

https://twitter.com/LucyGatsby/status/1543343978707390468

So some people are not happy with the Ukrainians in their country. I wonder why ?

Posted by: Tom_12 | Jul 3 2022 14:26 utc | 10

If the Russian forces have really taken Bilohorivka, closing the Lysichansk cauldron, and Verkhokamyanske right next to Siversk, and Spirne just to the south, they really have the Ukrainian forces on the run. It will be very interesting to see if they can rapidly envelop Siversk, as that would show a breakdown of the next line of defence and reinforce the momentum of the Russian offensive.

The nature of Russian warfare is to rapidly and fully exploit such breakthroughs until they come up against a new line of defence which cannot be easily driven through - which may be the Kramatorsk line of defence not Siversk-Bakhmut. The losses to the Ukrainians in a forced retreat to the Kramatorsk line would be brutal. Behind that line is open country that would not provide any cover to a retreating army, and is perfect for rapid tank-focused offensive thrusts. The next defensible line is the Dnieper River.

The main variable is how the West will react to the possible rapid denouement of the Ukie armed forces, either falls off the political radar completely (in the 7 stage Kubler-Ross grieving process perhaps this would be denial?), or go into further escalation (Anger?). It will take many, many years for the West to get to the Acceptance stage - if it ever does.

Would Poland then try to seize the Lviv and adjoining regions, will the West try to get to Odessa before the Russians? Just depends on how truly crazed and unable to accept reality the Western elites are.

The updated seven stage Kubler-Ross model is Shock, Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Testing, Acceptance.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 3 2022 14:38 utc | 11

Reuters transmits like a parrot what the Ukr ambassador in Turkey said, that Turkey has detained a Kazakh vessel with 7000 tons of grain from Berdyansk on its way to Turkish port of Karasu. Who was selling the grain to which customer it doesn't say.

I can't suspect any Ukr ambassador of intelligence so I'll wait for more news. But it could be that Erdo has begun to steal traffic going out of Russian controlled ports with his nazi friends.

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2022 14:47 utc | 12

@12
Before Poland does anything, Belarus might do something useful. Yesterday Lukashenko announced there was an attack on military facilities in Belarus and that Ukr missiles were intercepted. He said he will now target decision-making centers.

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2022 14:59 utc | 13

Quite. Does it even matter if Sweden and Nato are in Nato? BoJo signed some kind of defense deals with both countries in May before the Turkey debacle (conveniently). And the US may have done the same, not that anyone would bother to tell he Swedish and the Finnish people about it.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 15:00 utc | 14

Tom Luongo said in the latest The Duran broadcast that Turkey's economy was under constant attack in late June so an "agreement" on the FIN and SWE invitation could be reached in Madrid.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 15:11 utc | 15

Roger @ 12 posts the updated K-R model with acceptance as item 7.

I saw a wag on another site who listed the last stage of K-R as


7. "paying in roubles"

Posted by: countrumford | Jul 3 2022 15:15 utc | 16

Jonathan W @ 15
Oh, they did tell all about it, long time ago:

https://www.defensenews.com/training-sim/2018/05/09/finland-sweden-and-us-sign-trilateral-agreement-with-eye-on-increased-exercises/

Note the reason given. Some might say that they knew what was coming.
Also, agreement had wide support in both countries.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 15:16 utc | 17

Someone posted WaPo says HIMARS is successful. If so did they stop a Russian iniative somewhere? I don't think so . Maybe terrorizing civilian neighborhoods but otherwise not so much.

Posted by: Lou Cypher | Jul 3 2022 15:17 utc | 18

Finns and Swedes are the archetypal Aryan Fascists. Nothing new there.
Discuss!

Posted by: bjd | Jul 3 2022 15:29 utc | 19

@19 Joe6pack

Lol: "But the aggressiveness of Russia following the 2014 invasion of Ukraine has driven Sweden and Finland to look to create more formal ties with the U.S."

Just change 2014 to 2022 dear.

If that cooperation was so popular I wonder why support for Nato was still somewhere around 30% just a few months ago. How many times does Russia have to invade Ukraine until the Nordic countries finally get it?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 15:30 utc | 20

@17
Turkey is again in really bad inflation, won't be long before millions fill the streets like the last time. Erdo doesn't know how to solve the problem. Too dumb, bad advisors, no economy.
He will kiss Biden's ass to remain in power but if he goes too much against Russia he'll lose even more money and the result will be the same bad one. And his son in law, the Bayraktar boy, has a slow business too. No one orders his crap. Ukr openly says they're useless, even zelly said so, but they keep placing large orders.

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2022 15:42 utc | 21

Jonathan W @ 22
Why was the support at around 30 % just a few months ago and rose to around 80%? Gee, maybe something happened, what could it have been? Can you come up with any possible reason?

As for how many times Russia has to invade Ukraine, I can't tell. But sure enough they have been doing it numerous times over the centuries. Maybe they should realise they are not wanted?

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 15:44 utc | 22

@ 24
What is Ukraine? Such thing does not exist

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2022 15:49 utc | 24

rk @ 24
So RF leaders sign treaties with things that don't even exist?
Sure explains a lot...

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 15:52 utc | 25

Finns are not Indo-Europeans, nor is their language. They are descended from a Uralic population

Posted by: bob sykes | Jul 3 2022 15:55 utc | 26

@24

the answer you are looking for is the invasion on February 24.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 15:55 utc | 27

Moscow Armistice (1944) as model for peace treaty

Lazy me copying stuff from Twitter, instead of writing a proper post.

Russia started with very limited war aims: #Donbass (March agreement in Istanbul)

West's inability to compromise has forced Russia to widen its aims:

War will only end with #Novorossiya liberated AND
a) Russian tanks on Polish border
OR
b) Allied Control Commission (ACC) in Kiev.

https://twitter.com/PetriKrohn/status/1542494390366732290

The Moscow Armistice provides template for a truce between rump #Ukraine and Russia.
Painful compromises, but end result was great success for #Finland and democracy.
(Photo above shows Soviet-British Allied Control Commission arriving in Helsinki in 1944)

https://twitter.com/PetriKrohn/status/1542498520099196928

Moscow Armistice:
- Banning Fascist organizations
- Democracy, allowing Communist/pro-Russian parties
- Expulsion of German/NATO forces
- Neutrality
- Territorial concessions
+ Bonus: trade with Soviet/Russia
ACC will see that the terms are implemented.

https://twitter.com/PetriKrohn/status/1542509987921965059

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 3 2022 15:58 utc | 28

Russia has been invading a country that does not exist over the centuries and are not welcome. Bear that in mind.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 15:59 utc | 29

Given the long history of pure lies, fiction, and fake propaganda. From day one of the trash removal.

I would rate all press releases from country 404 fiction until proven as fact by independent sources.

Given the current total number of HIMARS shipped to country 404 is around four units only? This is an insignificant number.

Russian air defense systems shot down two Su-25 attack aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force and 9 drones. Four shells fired at the LPR from American HIMARS installations were intercepted. It would appear flying for country 404. Your flight time to extinction. Would be measured in minutes......... AFU pilot morale must be in the sewer by now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZGU6vUtupE

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jul 3 2022 16:05 utc | 30

Erdogan is selling Azov, Black Seas escort services to Ukraine's precious GRAINS. Now, this
Turkey shelves Syrian offensive after Russian objection

“Ankara decided to launch a military offensive on Syria while the world’s attention is focused on the war in Ukraine — and after thousands of Russian troops withdrew from Ukraine. However, Russia cannot risk looking weak in both Ukraine or Syria by giving the greenlight to a Turkish operation now,” he told Arab News.
NATO ally, Syria, or RU ally? You be the judge.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 3 2022 16:12 utc | 31

@ 31,33 & 34 and a host of other comments.

Why is the moderator allowing such idiotic comments from this retard Gabriel?

Has someone shit in his mouth?

Posted by: WTFUD | Jul 3 2022 16:23 utc | 32

Finns and Swedes are the archetypal Aryan Fascists. Nothing new there.
Discuss!
Posted by: bjd | Jul 3 2022 15:29 utc | 20

On which tree of knowledge did you gnaw then?

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jul 3 2022 16:27 utc | 33

Russia was famous from back stabbing allies in the back !!!! Hystory is a proof !?!

Posted by: Russia was famous fr | Jul 3 2022 16:27 utc | 34

Congratulations b, the bar has gotten a lot of attention up in Ali Baba's cave and its forty thieves, seems like they got a day off and a few of them are soiling the john puking their BS.

Posted by: Paco | Jul 3 2022 16:29 utc | 35

"Does the Russian Air Force have strategic air supremacy over Ukraine, allowing Russian aircraft to freely strike throughout the entire depth of its territory?

Does Russia need strategic air supremacy to dominate Ukraine? There are no numbers on the hourly cost of flying an SU-35 however a comparable F-15 cost $35,000/ hr to fly. If the Russians can keep Ukrainian aircraft out of the sky using SAM's that have to be deployed in theater anyway why the need for aircraft. NATO has the Russians vastly outnumbered when it comes to aircraft so if the war escalates Russia doesn't want to be putting wear and tear on combat aircraft as well as exposing their systems to elint.

This is war ... what matters is achieving objectives while conserving men and resources ... not what your enemy prints about your conduct of the war. The USA has to find some kind of victory in the backing of Ukraine. Their land war tactics and weapons supplied to Ukraine are proving to be lacking so of course they are going to find a silver lining somewhere.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 3 2022 16:32 utc | 36

The work of PR agencies in the Ukraine crisis:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=9Xs5UO_AfKM

(Unfortunately only in German)

Posted by: Zet | Jul 3 2022 16:34 utc | 37

@ Paco 42

These losers are fighting to hold onto their low-grade Bellingcat jobs. lol

Posted by: WTFUD | Jul 3 2022 16:36 utc | 38

Wow ... Never saw such a concentration of trolling.
I guess you made it on to the list b

And they are so colorful....

Posted by: Kartoschka | Jul 3 2022 16:37 utc | 39

@39
Gabriel is a troll as is Vick. Personal opinions with no rebuttals of substance and name calling. Putin's face has changed to almond shape....really? (Gabriel @27). There's some good comedy here.

Posted by: El Jefe | Jul 3 2022 16:44 utc | 40

Cassad's blog also appears to be swarming with low-level trolls. Something has pushed their activity into overdrive in the last few days. Maybe they've recently returned from captivity, but are forced to take a desk job due to lack of limbs?

Posted by: Skiffer | Jul 3 2022 16:51 utc | 41

@Zet | Jul 3 2022 16:34 utc | 45

---

Well presented with humor.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 3 2022 16:51 utc | 42

Can B update the system so the name of the posting barfly is listed on the very top so the rest of us can decide if we want to skip that post...

Posted by: ETA | Jul 3 2022 16:52 utc | 43

... Ukr openly says they're useless (Bayraktar), even zelly said so, but they keep placing large orders.

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2022 15:42 utc | 22

A way to launder Empire $$$ bribes to Erdogan’s inner circle?

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 3 2022 16:53 utc | 44

That's enough, children! Does anyone know if Turkey's "interesting" economic situation is due to the Islamic prohibition of interest, which may contribute to their difficulty to control inflation?

@57
Indeed, isn't it ultimately all about money? Just as there is an economic stick to make Turkey toe the line so there must be an economic carrot. Perhaps sanction-busting-related. Discuss.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 17:02 utc | 45

Our host will perform janitorial duties when he wakes up from his nap. Until then do not respond to the trolls and definitely do not quote them in any replies you feel obligated to post. Repetition of their FUD and nonsense works in their favor.

Thread post numbering will be altered after our host cleans the place up so keep that in mind.

On a positive note the volume of feces being flung about by the trolls indicates some serious desperation. Their employers must be feeling loss grip on the narrative about the Ukraine. Enjoy it for what it is.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 3 2022 17:06 utc | 46

...
West's inability to compromise has forced Russia to widen its aims:
...
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 3 2022 15:58 utc | 30

Yes, and your other points, Putin’s call-out-charge keeps going up but the SMO goals, security RF believes in, remain fixed.

Time passes, Novorossiya gets bigger, the Ukraine smaller, the EU poorer.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 3 2022 17:11 utc | 47

"Does the Russian Air Force have strategic air supremacy over Ukraine, allowing Russian aircraft to freely strike throughout the entire depth of its territory?

The answer is likely to be no, and there are a number of reasons for this."
Posted by: Saggy | Jul 3 2022 14:24 utc | 9

My takeaway is that Russia does not have full air dominance because they're fighting NATO without fighting NATO. That is NATO is fighting Russia, but Russia is not fighting NATO. That will change, because USA/NATO only know how to escalate, and like Ukraine itself, they will eventually escalate to a point that Russia will have to engage them directly. At that point Russia will shoot down the AWACs and destroy the radars surrounding Ukraine.

Why Russia isn't doing that now is Russia's business, I can't speak to their strategy or long-term planning because they don't share those with me. If I were to speculate it would have to do with their attempt to portray USA/NATO as a threat to world peace and international trade, in an attempt to gain as much support as possible for the new Russia/China alliance. The whole world is watching USA try to escalate a minor regional war into WW3, while cowardly hiding behind Poland, Romania, Lithuania and now Norway. Then these same US warmongers travel to Africa and insist countries starve their own populations to prove their allegiance to the US 'rules-based order'. This isn't going to end well for USA.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 3 2022 17:11 utc | 48

LOL

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 17:15 utc | 49

Prediction: before long Turkey will begin restricting Russian shipping into and out of the Black Sea.

Posted by: C | Jul 3 2022 17:20 utc | 50

B writes: "...I believe that, apart from “punishing” our countries, the United States wants to weaken the European Union as its rival."

Now, if one claims that US wants to weaken its rivals, under the assumption of universalism, then all entities vested with adequate powers, including Russia, would want to weaken their rivals.

European Union is not a region, or a country, but an organisation. It is a tool that (powers comtrolling ) US uses to control Europe and European population. European Union is not rival of the US, but its US puppet organisation and legal framework that US uses to surpress and steal from European population.

Europe would have become the rival of the US, but with WWII and peace accords that followed, Marshall plan, etc. US achieved to what has now developed into EU, and thus US denied any chance of rivalry from Europe. Including any chance for European countries to ally with anyone else but the US. I dont even get into what role USSR played in the aftermath of WWII that allowed this to happen.

Russia wants to weaken the EU as it is clear that it had no chance to ally with European countries, while US controls them via EU. Once Russia could not ally with European countries, they became its rivals and hence its Russia's benefit to weaken Europe, pump as high commodity and energy prices from Europe as it can, while US is doing the same. This whole scheme of US/EU sanctions is just for US and Russia both to suck Europe, European countries and its population out of whatever they have.

Posted by: Tigger | Jul 3 2022 17:22 utc | 51

just to answer my own brilliant question which nobody dares to ask: yes, Erdogan's economic policy is based on the Islamic prohibition of riba (interest) and it is wrecking Turkish economy according to this:

https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/10/20/turkey-is-an-example-of-what-islamism-does-to-an-economy/

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 17:22 utc | 52

C @ 66
Started a long time ago:
https://politicstoday.org/the-montreux-convention-and-the-russia-ukraine-war/

Or do you mean civilian cargo? I don't see that happening in a hurry, but who knows, really?

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 17:25 utc | 53

Posted by: C | Jul 3 2022 17:20 utc | 66

Turkey has stopped all military transit of the Straits except for Russian ships returning to their Black Sea base. It cannot stop civilian shipping without breaching the Montreux Convention, and that would weaken their hold on the Straits.

Posted by: Peter Williams | Jul 3 2022 17:34 utc | 54

Vick @ 70

Guess you noticed already, but if you insist that not every word from Russian army, Putin etc.,is NOT the word of God, 100 % true and for the benefit of all mankind, you will be labeled as a troll.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 17:35 utc | 55

Sorry, double negative in my previous comment.
But I guess most get the drift.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 17:36 utc | 56

Saggy | Jul 3 2022 14:24 utc | 9

Very interesting read, thanks for sharing!

---

Here we go, some hassle involving Ukrainians in some German backwater area:

Party scene now also at your local strawberry farm

Police operation due to a brutal mass brawl among harvest temp workers on the premises of Karls Erdbeerhof near Rostock. Around 100 people involved, three seriously injured, two arrests.
About a hundred men brutally attacked each other in a mass brawl on the grounds of the popular theme park farm in Rövershagen near Rostock. According to the police, the argument began in the workers' accommodation of the regional employer.
In the event, a larger group of Ukrainian employees got into arguments with a group of Romanians.
It is still unclear why the violence escalated. At first it was said that the dispute had escalated because of some nullity.

The source – Reitschuster – is German only, machine translation of the excerpts.
Why is it that I had a hunch Ukrainians might be involved when I started reading the article?

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 3 2022 17:37 utc | 57

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 17:35 utc | 73

It is not about Putin, it is the whole Russian nation that must be punished. Go and do likewise.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 17:44 utc | 58

@ Paco | Jul 3 2022 16:29 utc | 42

right on!

@ skiffer, william gruff and other regulars.... this thread has really attracted the dregs!! i think ostro changed his name to gabriel today as well! oh well....

Posted by: james | Jul 3 2022 17:46 utc | 59

a real tag team in here today, lol....

Posted by: james | Jul 3 2022 17:47 utc | 60

I wonder if the idea behind the posts of all these trolls is to get people to stop reading the board. It’s overwhelmed by these mutants, making actual conversation and flow of ideas impossible, along with making it impossible to read. Although it is kind of funny to read the delusions insane people hold, I end up just feeling pity for them.

Posted by: Caveman | Jul 3 2022 17:53 utc | 61

@ Kingsmeg | Jul 3 2022 17:51 utc | 81

right on... you are new around here, and a welcome presence.... the problem combating ignorance, is it's an never ending task...

Posted by: james | Jul 3 2022 17:54 utc | 62

lol, Boris Johnson is now embezzling funds meant for Scotland and Wales pension funds, Education and Healthcare budgets so he can send the money to Ukraine. They just cant stop stealing! the British are destroying their own country to save the Nazis in Kiev while getting their 30% cut along the way, oh well, sure whatever its not like Scotland and Wales have large, well funded and well organized independence movements, oh wait.

Posted by: Kadath | Jul 3 2022 17:57 utc | 63

Sorry. I know one should not not answer those trolls that dare to suggest that Putin is not God but it is too much fun especially as they have such amazing writing skills. Sorry for the double negative "not not"

But as a followup to my own brilliant question. Does the prohibition of riba (interest) make an economy more susceptible to corruption (say, Turkey) because you have to pay for the loan somehow...

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 17:58 utc | 64

I think the trolls are trying to crowd out legitimate barflies, making it very difficult to read. B must do something.

Posted by: ETA | Jul 3 2022 18:01 utc | 65

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 3 2022 17:51 utc | 81

Thank you! I was starting to wonder if this thread was going to devolve into name-calling and useless rhetoric.

The main reason this particular blog stands out among others for me is because most comments here are articulate opinions and actual information, rather than pissing contests like on ZH and Unz, or mass sermons like on Saker.

Posted by: Lemming | Jul 3 2022 18:04 utc | 66

"An extra detail to that protest that I just spotted in a tweet.

"I seen this on many news channels on telegram, they all said the same that it was a pro BRICS rally but today I see new videos from the same rally saying "There is Polish here, not Ukropol," some protesters chanted.

so now I am not sure what the rally was about. "


The point is that the US-Ukrainian agency that governs Warsaw wants to create something similar to a federation of Poland and Ukraine. This is in line with their plan to drag Poland into war with Russia. Of course, the creation of Ukropol will exclude Poland from NATO structures, without forcing the intervention of other NATO countries in the event of a conflict with Russia. Indians in Warsaw are trying to figure out how to escalate the conflict even more.

Posted by: Janek | Jul 3 2022 18:06 utc | 67

Posted by: Zet | Jul 3 2022 16:34 utc | 45

Thanks for this link. I never thought that any German journo that had some air-time would produce something like that.

On a different note, Thilo Jung created some excitement by the interview with Melnyk, who did not want to distance himself from Bandera. Nothing more is likely to happen. But: Constant dripping wears the stone.

Posted by: TomD | Jul 3 2022 18:06 utc | 68

Posted by: james | Jul 3 2022 17:54 utc | 83

Plenty of lost souls around today, but no wonder, the hyper power’s embassy in Moscow does not have an address, they do not want to invoque God’s name in vain and say the word, I live in the Free Republic of Lugansk’s square, totally liberated a day before the hyper power’s national holiday, it’ll be a lot easier to remember.

What a shy gang, but then again when Cuban cicadas are weapons you don’t know what to expect from these “diplomats”

Lost in Moscow

Posted by: Paco | Jul 3 2022 18:08 utc | 69

@ b. & others:

Everyone talks about Artemovsk/Bakhmut offensive.

I might disagree with that expectation.
Maybe it will be not a major one but adjoining one to the current speed RF gained.

I'll wait for Military Summary tonight and hear what he says, but I would like to see this northern 'drang nach Westen' along Sieversky Donets river to keep its momentum, over and behind of Sieversk.

South of Izyum at about 12-15 km there is a road knot in a village of Barvinkove.
RF taking this point will probably shorten and speed up the fall of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk agglomerates.

RF has now about 25+ BTG free and fresh to keep on the pressure, just from Lysichiansk siege.
Militarily we will probably see something we never saw before - a constant rotating attacks, switching and rotating BTG while swiftly rolling on.

What is a great mystery to me is how will RF answer to over border attacks and bombardment of civilian cities of Donetsk, and will they be restrained and measured or severe and inelegant?

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 3 2022 18:14 utc | 70

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jul 3 2022 15:44 utc | 23

The ukraine doesn't exist anymore..you are talking about country 404 I presume.please use the right terms just to understand better.

Posted by: LuBa | Jul 3 2022 18:23 utc | 72

Posted by: Vick | Jul 3 2022 18:04 utc | 89

No I don't have to. And there shouldn't be no question mark as it is an indirect question. Sorry for the double negative and sorry for wasting everyone's time on this.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 18:25 utc | 73

I am reading that attacks have been made inside Russia.

That means escalation, but how/when does that show itself? Russia has said repeatedly that they will take out command/control centers and I expect it will be a combination of one place in particular they want to make an example of and/or a red line crossed with some level of intrusion into Russia.

Folks may think this is only about Ukraine but this is a civilization war and many actors are involved and all will be impacted by the outcome.

I am guessing the next Russian military example will be in Ukraine but maybe not, maybe in support of Belarus.

The shit show continues until it doesn't....are we there yet?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 3 2022 18:26 utc | 74

Finns, like Estonians and Hungarians, are not Indo-European nations, and their languages, as you wrote yourself, belong to the Uralic language group. Indo-Europeans are haplogroups R1a and R1B, and Finns are haplogroup N1c

https://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_R1a_Y-DNA.shtml

https://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_R1b_Y-DNA.shtml

https://eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_N1c_Y-DNA.shtml

There is no invented by the Germans, the Aryan race, while the sa Aryans are the owners of the R1a gene, i.e. the peoples of Afghanistan, northern India, Persians and Slavs

Posted by: Janek | Jul 3 2022 18:31 utc | 75

Does Russia actually need air dominance over the Ukraine, a country with a minuscule air force? As stated by other posters in times past, Russian military tactics are not he same as the US need for complete air supremacy. In the US minds it is a failure as it is necessary, in Russian doctrine it is a choice to be used when necessary.

Military summary has talked about this in that Russia has a respect for the massive amount of stinger missiles given to the Ukraine. They generally fly up to the edge of contested territory and fire guided and unguided munitions into Ukrainian positions. Occasionally they will run a massive aviation operation in contested areas like during the retreat from the Lysychansk cauldron. This was done at an opportune moment and greatly enhanced the fall of the cauldron as well as the weakening of the reinforcing of the next line of defense.

The next line of defense will have 60 year old women in the trenches along with mothers of children older than 3. When they run of of them they will conscript the 3 year olds. After than grandma and grandads over the age of 60. Once the Anglo-American NATO death cult is satisfied they will carve up what is left of the Russian borderlands not taken by Russia

Posted by: cirrcumspect | Jul 3 2022 18:32 utc | 76

Clown world .......

Ukraine to be universally granted right to carry hand guns in their country for self protection.

Pistols for Ukraine

Confiscated hand guns from the west will find new homes in the Ukraine!

Posted by: James Cook | Jul 3 2022 18:43 utc | 77

I have question number 1 in mind : does Putin look the same during the last 10 years ?'' Correct.. it's Put2 now, IMO. as are HC2, JB2, MbS2 etc. Put1 went to Geneva 5 or so years ago for the alleged birth of a daughter. 2 weeks later Put2 came back with a new round face, no more prominent chin, new non-Judo belly, more hair, loss of German & Judo skills & wife. Old vid Put1 with late Fr. Prez. Chirac. It's Put's Ghost locals say..

Posted by: Thomas Turk | Jul 3 2022 18:48 utc | 78

I love MoA, and am deeply grateful for the many brilliant posts normally present on the site.
Unfortunately, today the trolls far outnumber those who come to share information and opinions, so I will sign off for now and hope the moderator will arrive to rearrange things.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 3 2022 18:54 utc | 79

Posted by: Skiffer | Jul 3 2022 16:51 utc | 53
"... Maybe they've recently returned from captivity, but are forced to take a desk job due to lack of limbs?"
I would say a lack of brains. Vick (#54) tried to present itself (?) as some king of intellectual in yesterday's post: Complete failure!!!! LOL.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Jul 3 2022 18:58 utc | 80

Does the Russian Air Force have strategic air supremacy over Ukraine, allowing Russian aircraft to freely strike throughout the entire depth of its territory? @#44

I am trying to not enter a scrum already in progress, but one of my favorite sites is under seige:

404 has S-300's and the like. RF are launching attacks from RU territory or cleared 404 space. Do research of the flight patters and vids on Telegram if you dare to come in to the fray.

RF tactic in this SMO = slow and steady with little undue risk. Long range missles are being used to strike deep into 404 not planes.

I truly feel for LPR and DPR. I pray their cities are rebuilt with POW's who were about to launch the offensive prior to 24/2/22.

Coot

Posted by: Old Coot | Jul 3 2022 18:58 utc | 81

Does the Russian Air Force have strategic air supremacy over Ukraine, allowing Russian aircraft to freely strike throughout the entire depth of its territory? @#44

I am trying to not enter a scrum already in progress, but one of my favorite sites is under seige:

404 has S-300's and the like. RF are launching attacks from RU territory or cleared 404 space. Do research of the flight patters and vids on Telegram if you dare to come in to the fray.

RF tactic in this SMO = slow and steady with little undue risk. Long range missles are being used to strike deep into 404 not planes.

I truly feel for LPR and DPR. I pray their cities are rebuilt with POW's who were about to launch the offensive prior to 24/2/22.

Coot

Posted by: Old Coot | Jul 3 2022 18:59 utc | 82

Were any of the Ukr defenders of Lysychansk captured or did they all manage to escape in their retreat? What route was used for the retreat?

One was led to believe that all escape routes from Lysychansk were blocked, so what has happened?

Posted by: chet380 | Jul 3 2022 19:06 utc | 83

Jonathan W@96
Your question is not a waste of time, but it is one that can bring out the worst in islamophobes. The truth is that islamic commerce domninated eurasia for centuries. Muslim traders and investors became extremely wealthy.
Exactly how this was reconciled with the prohibition on lending at interest (a prohibition of the kind in Christian law too) involves a long and complex study of both commerce and theology. Historains have done plenty of work on this and surrounding issues.
As to the direct question of Erdogan's policies and islam we used to have an Istanbul correspondent among the regular commenters here, perhaps will we hear from him/her. I'm unsure about the website that you referred to: the issue in question tends to get the attention of two religious sets- Hindus looking for cheap points to score on Islam and neo-liberals. It is noteworthy, at first glance, that the critics of Erdogan's policies seem to be arguing the necessity of following Chicago school prescriptions for dealing with inflation.

This is a question which, perhaps, the trolls can answer for us- most of them will have served their apprenticeships slandering Islam, perhaps they have picked up some expertise.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 3 2022 19:11 utc | 84

The article about air superiority and/or dominance is a bit weird (and I wonder how much is lost in translation when reading some of the —mostly odd— comments, I haven't read all of them and automatic translation clearly has a long way to go yet).

If the environment is or was so encumbered as the writer thinks then what about the success of the night hunter helicopters? As with their use in Syria I'm not sure if they've been there all of the time or on and off but either way.

Complete air dominance (as opposed to more limited superiority as defined by the article) against who? There isn't any nazi/"Ukrainian" success to speak of at all and thus also none against which any increased use of the Russian air force would be needed. I don't see any indication that the Russians aren't (or haven't been) using their planes if they think it's correct to do so and using missiles instead when applicable seems like the sensible thing to do.

Btw the Russians do have AWACS-like aircraft AEW&C. From the way I read it I got the impression the writer of the article doesn't think they do.

Small tactical drones might be a slightly different matter but not all that relevant to the context (and weren't mentioned anyway).

NATO? Well they're not really there but I do remember the US military medevac chopper that landed right on the Polish border because they didn't dare enter Ukrainian airspace.

And with the selected strategy NATO can keep guessing.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 3 2022 19:12 utc | 85

Taking control of the entire territory of the LPR (or DPR) does not guarantee the security of the republic because of the forces and means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have. Therefore, the LNR, DPR militias and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have to push the enemy to a distance that would allow LNR and DPR to say that they are completely safe.

This safe distance is ~300 km from the borders of the Republics.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2022 19:12 utc | 86

@perimetr, 102

See my previous post @82! Please don’t let them win!

Posted by: Caveman | Jul 3 2022 19:17 utc | 87

I must say I am impressed with the barflies today.
Kudos.

Posted by: ld | Jul 3 2022 19:19 utc | 88

So, the idea is that the Ukraine has to capitulate, an unconditional surrender. Which also means the capitulation of NATO. No other options.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2022 19:21 utc | 89

Could the moderator please delete the waste of space trolls who tag team their nonsense on this here normally sensible alternative website. Ta.

Posted by: Oh | Jul 3 2022 19:21 utc | 90

It's raining artillery over Kramatorsk nazis hiding in industrial zones and airport, as instructed by bojo advisors.
Also the footage published today with the running nazis or the missile camera that enters thru the window of the building is good, you won't see that on bbc

Posted by: rk | Jul 3 2022 19:25 utc | 91

Leonid Pasechnik regarding the complete liberation of the Luhansk People's Republic:

Dear compatriots! Citizens of the Luhansk People's Republic! Today, the third of July, is a great day that will forever be a red date in the calendar of our Fatherland. It was today that what we all have been striving for for eight long years has come true. Today, our troops, with the support of the Russian armed forces, liberated the city of Lisichansk, thereby completing the liberation of the Republic within its historical borders.

Ukrainian neo-Nazis who came to our land to kill and rob are defeated. They used dastardly tactics, using civilians as human shields. Therefore, our military had to carefully win back literally every house, every street, every village. And so, finally, such large cities of the Lugansk region as Rubizhne and Severodonetsk were taken, and today Lisichansk has been completely liberated!

I sincerely congratulate all of us on this new Great Victory Day! This holiday, as in the distant 1945, is also with tears in our eyes - the battles were heavy and bloody. And Victory is ours again, it will always be so!

Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2022 19:26 utc | 92

HB_Norica [44]

Russia does not have air space supremacy so long as NATO surveillance planes can vector countermeasures

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jul 3 2022 19:27 utc | 93

Joe6pack, Gabriel, Vick

I appreciate your efforts, but you
still have a ways to go before reaching CalDre levels. Keep up the hard work...you'll end up in the same place.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Jul 3 2022 19:34 utc | 94

the reason for the low level trolls at MOA is because all the good ones are at UNZ
Massive infestation. Comrade Krieger post in particular.

bots tag teams concern trolls spewing lengthy official sounding rhetoric.
I imagine after the fourth of july we will see a tsunami of empire's minions sucking up the atmosphere.
b will have his work cut out for him
Barflies must remain diligent and starve them to death.

Posted by: ld | Jul 3 2022 19:51 utc | 95

If Russia is not welcome in Ukraine, as has been suggested, there should be a military alliance, perhaps even a Western US-led one, to do something about this undesirable state of affairs. Like ask them to leave. Please. Or do Finland and Sweden now imagine themselves to be the "game changers"? What a doodoo show.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 3 2022 19:52 utc | 96

The demented Joe had urged entrepreneurs to immediately reduce the cost of fuel at gas stations.

Something I'm completely confused. He, along with his team, called gasoline prices “Putin's” and blamed Vladimir Vladimirovich personally for their growth. Then, according to this logic, it is not American entrepreneurs who should be asked to lower prices, but Putin, no?
Maria Zakharova

Posted by: ostro | Jul 3 2022 19:52 utc | 97

Random comments to comments.

Lost souls indeed but then again aren't we all? :) (I don't mean it in any religious or ideological sense, only in the simple sense of the ordinary challenges of life and being a human).

- - -

I doubt usury (the origin of financialization?) can be an actual solution to any problem Turkey is or isn't facing (I have various issues with islam and could easily be an "islamophobe" in the context of manipulated mass migration —but it's a huge complex topic where nuance is almost always lost in the noise of all sorts of "trench warfare". I've pretty much given up on that topic and some others).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 3 2022 19:56 utc | 98


Years ago I developed the habit of reading comments backwards making it easy to skip the folks not worth reading. It also makes
the ones who just have to duke it out almost comical.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jul 3 2022 19:58 utc | 99

@HB_Norica 44

In early 1995, the cost per hour on the SU-35 ran about $800 per hour (including allocated pilot costs which were IIRC, about 1/4 of that) plus fuel (about 4000 to 8000 kg/hr without afterburners, 8000 kg combat fuel load, 11,500 kg max internal load). If we assume 6,000 kg/hr and $1/kg for jet fuel, that would be about $6,800,or about a fifth of the cost of an F35/hr in 2020 (before the price of fuel went crazy).⁴ The main cost for US military aircraft is on required maintenance, which Russian airframes, electronics packages and engines are famous for minimizing. The F16 needs 33 man-hours of maintenance per flying-hour. The F22 is worse (over 40 man-hours per flight hour), the F35 is better (at a claimed 9 man-hours of maintenance per flying-hour), but the availability of both the F23 and F35 is below 60% (in other words, if you need a wing of 10 F35s, you need to order at least 14), and given that components are fabricated all over the world, including Turkey, which the US has repeatedly destabilized economically to attempt to force it into compliance (most recently over it's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO), with mamy dependencies on semiconductors (extreme post-COVID shortages, many sourced from ROC, Israel and South Korea) and metals (many sourced primarily from Russia), and delivered just-in-time on a cost-plus basis, you had better hope that spares can be delivered when needed, or they will all be grounded. In any case, Russian detection systems have long overtaken American stealth technology, Russian missile system ranges and ECM capability almost guaranty stand-off destruction of US aircraft before the US aircraft reach attack range, and if this fails, as exercises with India have shown, even previous generation export Russian aircraft tend to be faster, far more maneuverable and carry a much larger dog-fight punch than current Western combat airframes.

This, and the high POK and range of Russian missile systems, nullifies the 4 to 1 ratio of NATO to Russian fighter aircraft in the European theater.

Posted by: Hermit | Jul 3 2022 19:58 utc | 100

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