Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 31, 2022

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2022-118

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

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Other issues:

Covid-19:

Oil, money, politics:

Dutch pig and cow manure:

Use as open thread for issues not related to Ukraine ...

Posted by b on July 31, 2022 at 13:16 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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New Global Times article about the Pelosi flight with many various interesting tidbits of information and/or reactions on this and that.

Happy to see and have it confirmed how wary the Chinese are of any US 'Pelosi flight' excuses and schemes.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Aug 1 2022 12:47 utc | 101

Did I miss something or did the U.S. DOD admit the missile attack on the POW camp was likely done in error by the Ukranian side?

Now U.S. wants to talk nuclear arms deal. Good luck with that request. I mean, does the so-called collective west think the rest of the world has no collective memory? While the U.S. is walking away from deals it has made, it now wants to talk about prisoner swap and arms reduction, but the one item they simply do not want to discuss with Russia is Ukraine and moving NATO away from Russian borders.

Russia wanted to talk over eight months ago and received silence in return. I was horrified by the complete lack of response from the U.S. side of the matter. I believe even Mr. Lavrov was a bit surprised by the complete lack of response by the partners on the other side of the table. But, I mean, after all, what could the great Blinking One say? The great Blinking One was already in way over his pretty little head when he previously met with the Chinese FM and was simply not up to the task of responding to Russian outreach. Remarkable when you think about it.

The U.S. will have to talk with Russia about Ukraine sooner or later. At the moment they are all caught up other distractions.

Posted by: thecelticwithinme | Aug 1 2022 14:17 utc | 102

Below is a Wall Street on Parade link about how crypto folks got banks to back them so they could say they are FDIC insured

Brace Yourself for Federally-Insured Bank Failures Caused by Crypto

Given the world of derivatives, FDIC is a joke and has nowhere near the reserves its would need to fulfill its obligations but lets keep digging down...../s

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 1 2022 14:24 utc | 103

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 1 2022 12:42 utc | 102

Thank you for your answer.
I read wiki too. There is standing reach of Krasuha 2 is 250km, Krasuha 4 300 km.
And that is range for military rargets, like AWACS... And Krasuha 4 can cause terminal damage. Even to low orbit satellites.
But my point was, I don't save articles from military literature, Iread, so I can not paste info, that what is in wiki, is not ultimate, last truth.
So I hope that somebody will reply with more...
And we know, China is not a baby anymore...

Posted by: preseren3 | Aug 1 2022 14:33 utc | 104

Thank you, b, for both the Hahn article and the Hudson one - equally worth reading and rereading, both!

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2022 14:34 utc | 105

Just a further brief comment on the virus situation - I'm most concerned for my vaccinated family, as I remember (but couldn't find) a comment by IM Doc at nakedcapitalism.com that he was seeing repeat infections of covid that were among the vaccinated and progressively worse each time. I did try to find the comment in the archives - it was some weeks back. Perhaps someone else remembers it also. I am just questioning the claim that vaccination does ameliorate symptoms, as it seemed to me that comment implied the opposite. Stay safe, everyone!

Thank you b, you have been working hard, bless you. A very well done week of articles, as the review makes evident.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2022 14:44 utc | 106

@Juliana 108

Go to NC and appeal - there are commentators there who collect all IMDOC and GMDOC posts
I remember IMDOC has commented often on the dangers of the Moderna especially Pfizer vaccins

Posted by: Gerrard White | Aug 1 2022 14:57 utc | 107

@psychohistorian #105
That article is highly misleading.

FDIC deposit insurance covers very specific bank products under very specific circumstances; crypto itself does not apply: FDIC Deposits at a glance

The FDIC covers

Checking accounts
Negotiable Order of Withdrawal (NOW) accounts
Savings accounts
Money Market Deposit Accounts (MMDAs)
Time deposits such as certificates of deposit (CDs)
Cashier's checks, money orders, and other official items issued by a bank

The FDIC does not cover

Stock investments
Bond investments
Mutual funds
Life insurance policies
Annuities
Municipal securities
Safe deposit boxes or their contents
U.S. Treasury bills, bonds or notes

So first of all - crypto clearly falls in the latter category (not cash or cash equivalents)- not the first (cash or cash equivalents).

Secondly, "omnibus account" or not - the crypto firms are a depositor in an FDIC bank. They are not the bank itself. The article makes zero distinction on whether the deposits are crypto, cash, Treasuries, something else, or some combination thereof.

So the first question: if the crypto firm is a depositor, they are only insured for $250K, per depositor, per insured bank. I hardly think $250K per crypto institution is going to bankrupt the banks in question. The maximum possible loss would be $250K x 1300 crypto firm depositors = $325M - not chump change, but even then how exactly does the deposit insurance come into play? The solvency of the bank does not hinge on the crypto loans or stablecoin value - the bank's role is holding the cash.

Secondly, that $250K is from the 1st list, not the second. "crypto" deposits in the banks would not be insured. Voyager crypto loans would not be insured. etc etc.

How exactly are applicable deposits being lost in such a way that FDIC deposit insurance gets involved? Failure of a crypto firm is not an FDIC insurable event nor is it clear even that the failure of a crypto firm would directly impact the deposits - the deposits remain as an asset to be disposed of by bankruptcy court.

The crypto space is absolutely full of scammers and whatnot, but this particular "chicken little" seems entirely unhinged.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 1 2022 15:03 utc | 108

...Russian propaganada re: "Nazis" is either poor or strictly for domestic consumption. I am now leaning towards believing the latter and that Russia could not care less about appealing to the west regarding their support of indo-European, deluded-Nationalists.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jul 31 2022 16:02 utc | 9

I am backtracking here, NemesisCalling, apologies. I could not untangle all the isms in the Unz article, so as I realized you have had many things contested in your comments here, I think it might be profitable if you could explain what you mean by your short beginning piece. Who is it in the above sentence who supports 'indo-european deluded Nationalists'? And to whom do you refer with the 'indo' appellation?

I ask because I don't believe what is occurring to be propaganda on the part of the Russian government. Far too much actual bloodshed in the case of the population's ongoing struggle for survival for any propaganda to be needed. The strategies in play do seem based on a stark division between haves and have nots, not any racial categories though those can be used redherringwise to elicit knee jerk lemminglike affiliations. [Did I just say that?]

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2022 15:25 utc | 109

julianna @ 108

You need to find other sources. In no particular order try Childrens Health Defense, Peter McCullough, telegram agglomerators Vigilant Fox, Germ Warfare, Robin Monotti+Mike Yeadon. Susan Webber at NC does not allow much discussion.

Oh yeah, all listed above post items that make cringe. And items to scroll right past. And still better than being blind.

Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 1 2022 15:52 utc | 110

Putin again meets with members of Russia's metallurgical industry which is perhaps the most stressed sector of Russia's economy due to the illegal sanctions. Revealed is more info on the nature of Russia's political-economy where large scale infrastructure projects are being used to increase domestic demand to both stabilize and grow the industry. Putin is speaking; the translation in the last paragraph is muddled:

"And, of course, the focus of attention of both industry companies, the Government, the heads of regions should be to ensure domestic demand for metallurgical products. And we are talking not only about stable supplies of these goods to our market, but also about increasing these supplies, about the growth in demand, primarily due to increasing the volume of housing construction, industrial and commercial facilities, through the implementation of large-scale infrastructure development programs: railways, bridges and overpasses, and other capital facilities.

"Let me remind you that at a meeting in April, it was instructed to approve the Strategy for the Development of Domestic Metallurgy until 2030. At the same time, I asked for a special emphasis on the active growth of metal consumption within the country, on ensuring affordable prices for these products for business and for citizens, for large regional and federal projects with a powerful effect for the target sectors of the economy, for the territories of Russia, for the quality of life of our citizens in the end.

"I would like to emphasise that the Strategy should be designed not only to overcome the current difficulties, to support Russian metallurgists and their labour collectives in the current conditions – we need to think about this in the long term. But at the same time, it is necessary to set guidelines for the long-term development of the industry, to create the basis for long-term plans of companies and enterprises."

I'll be curious to discover the 2030 plan, not just for this industry but for Russia as a whole. One sector unmentioned is shipbuilding which is rapidly expanding and uses lots of steel and other products. Prior to this meeting on the 29th, Putin met with Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin "on the situation in the field of housing and road construction, preferential mortgage lending. Separately,... [he talked in] detail about the plans and ongoing work to restore Mariupol, as well as various facilities in the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics." Some of this info will seem dull and unnewsworthy to some but what's being reported deals with the basic nuts and bolts of any economy. What's most interesting is the mortgage program has really taken off with many Russians seeing bright times ahead that satisfies the main risk factor in buying a new home. This excerpt shows yet again that Russia continues to use the old Soviet 5-year plan as the basis for economic development--a method that was always condemned as wrong during the Cold War but now shows clearly superior results when compared to Neoliberalism:

Next set of questions. Thank you very much, Mr President, for the five-year programme that has been approved. We have never in the history of the latest five-year programs approved...

Vladimir Putin: Roads?

Maxim Khusnullin: Roads.

Here, the figures are simply pleasing to the eye, after all, a five-year program: more than four thousand kilometers of federal roads have been built, more than three thousand have been brought to four lanes instead of two. We are creating all transnational corridors, and we are linking the road network with the regions into the so-called backbone network and regional roads.

If you look at the next slide, we can confidently say that in the second half of the year we already have 75.5 percent in the largest agglomerations, the plan is to be 79 percent by the end of the year. We should reach 85 percent in 2023-2024. This is a national goal in your Executive Order. We will achieve it.

Vladimir Putin: Will it be 79 percent by the end of the year?

Maxim Khusnullin: Yes, it will already be.

Moreover, Mr President, I am not just saying this, but on regional roads, please note that in 2022 we will have a plan of 49.5 percent, despite the fact that we must achieve 50 percent in the country as a whole, not less than 50 percent. Yes, some of our regions are spent on a longer period, but the national average is 50, and 49.5 will be fulfilled. This shows that we will be guaranteed to implement your Executive Order in 2023.

And if you look at the reversal this year – thank you very much for the decisions you made on advanced construction – plus the additional 100 billion that you gave, this money gives us the opportunity to turn around and confidently fulfill our plans. And I can say that, despite the fact that spring came three weeks later this year, there was such a situation, we have already caught up with the plan for physical development in almost all regions, and we are even ahead of schedule in financial development. That is, as for the road workers, I can confidently say that all the regions and all federal services have set up road work, and we have no doubt that we will fulfill the plan this year.

I would like to say a few words about the Europe-Western China highway. We started building this road, Moscow-Kazan-Yekaterinburg, a year and a half ago. Mr President, I have previously reported to you that we have every chance to launch 95 kilometres a year earlier this year. If something unforeseen does not happen, we will launch three specific stages by the end of the year.

Construction is underway, and today 21,000 builders and six thousand pieces of equipment are already working. Within two months, there will be 30 thousand builders and about nine thousand units of equipment.

All this advanced construction, the adopted regulatory framework allow us to confidently turn around. And plus, we are still looking further at the possibility of extending to Omsk, to Novosibirsk with the possibility of reaching the borders with China and Mongolia. And we are already planning rounds of large cities, such as Novosibirsk, in our five-year program.

Vladimir Putin: Very good.

Maxim Khusnullin: In other words, it will be a transnational corridor of almost seven thousand kilometres. [My Emphasis]

Clearly, Russia is aggressively doing its part to expand transport corridors to facilitate EAEU/BRI trade.

One aspect of the SMO getting very little attention is the rebuilding of the Donbass Republics. This next significant excerpt describes in detail the work that's ongoing and how it's being directed:

We continue to work on providing humanitarian assistance to the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Here, of course, Mr President, I would like to consult with you and would like to offer you this concept – a master plan for the development of the city of Mariupol. On your instructions, we have worked it out completely. Here is a squeeze, in fact, already on 100 pages such a work is prescribed, where we have described in great detail by year how we will restore Mariupol.

I can say that according to the plan presented here, within three years we can completely restore the city. Moreover, we have painted the following slide on the construction of apartment buildings, on repairs, on current repairs– all social infrastructure facilities in full. I can say that this year we will restore 90 social infrastructure facilities– kindergartens, schools and hospitals. We have described the increase by year: 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2030, 2035.

Of the new things: we have slightly changed the boundaries of the plan - we propose to include an airport in it. We are now also beginning to restore it.

We have created a completely new transport infrastructure, and we want to use the railway and restore the entire tram service. We plan to make a new transport and interchange hub, where there will be a railway station, a port and tram lines.

We have worked out completely new street standards with parking space, with landscaping. We have worked out the entire historical part of the city and plan to hold a competition with the participation of our famous architects. We worked out the entire engineering infrastructure completely in the city, worked out a new embankment.

We looked at the development of industry. We looked at the possibility of what will happen to the fate of Azovstal, we discuss this issue a lot with residents, we see that it is possible to save some jobs there without restoring harmful production. But there are 40 million tons of waste there – an environmental problem. It needs to be cleaned up.

Vladimir Putin: They [Ukies] didn't do it.

Maxim Khusnullin: They didn't do it, they squeezed everything out of there.

And now we want to make a completely new look of the city, with its own face. Color solutions, architectural solutions – we have painted everything in detail.

Mr President, I would like to ask you to take this plan as a basis and approve it so that we can consider it with the DPR leadership and the residents in the near future. And, taking it as a basis, they worked on it.

Vladimir Putin: Of course.

I know you've been there many times. In accordance with our international obligations, we are providing assistance to both the Lugansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic, and we are conducting, as you know, a special military operation. But, unfortunately, this is also associated with high costs, frankly, with great trials for the people who live there, with destruction. And first of all, the leadership of both republics appeals to us with a request to assist in the restoration of social and engineering infrastructure, social facilities, and the residential part of the relevant settlements.

Therefore, I would like to ask you to work out these issues in contact with the leadership of the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics. All the more so since it is the height of summer, but winter is also just around the corner, and it is necessary for people to spend this winter in normal, human conditions, so that they can then calmly go to construction and, accordingly, to get decent housing for people.

As for social infrastructure facilities, the leadership of the Donetsk Republic asked for assistance in the construction of a multidisciplinary medical center in Mariupol, and in Donetsk - a perinatal center, since the maternity hospital was old, but it was also destroyed during the hostilities. Therefore, please pay special attention to this and, in contact with the leadership of the republic, deal with this issue.

I think that within a couple of years both can definitely be built, especially since in Mariupol – as for a multidisciplinary medical center – this can be done with the FMBA. I spoke with the leadership of this agency: they are ready, they have, as you know, the relevant plans, approved in advance. They did the same centre, I think, in Yalta, right?

Maxim Khusnullin: Yes.

Vladimir Putin: Therefore, it will not be difficult. You just need to tie it to the terrain and do the same. How long do you think it will take?

Maxim Khusnullin: Mr President, I think we will put it into operation in 2023.

Vladimir Putin: Will they already work?

Maxim Khusnullin: Yes.

Vladimir Putin: Both? And in Donetsk too?

Maxim Khusnullin: I can say for sure about Mariupol, because the project is ready. We will adapt it to the site and start building it promptly. We will work on Donetsk a little more, but we will also strive to fully launch it by the end of 2023.

Vladimir Putin: We have standard perinatal centres. Throughout Russia, we are building such centers, so I think that there will be no particular difficulty. It is simply necessary to tie to the urban conditions, to the place, to fit into the overall architectural ensemble of the city. Moreover, much will be done anew and in accordance with modern requirements and standards.

Maxim Khusnullin: Mr President, we will work everything out. We'll let you know.

Vladimir Putin: All right.

Maxim Khusnullin: Let me report one more question on housing.

I have already reported several times on what approaches we propose for the restoration of housing in general on the example of Mariupol and also for all territories.

We are now drawing up a schedule for three years of everything that we will repair. We have already completed 85 percent of the survey of the entire housing stock once, and we will restore everything that we can restore. Everything that we cannot restore, we will build. By year, we will describe where, in what year, in which quarter we will build what. For those people who do not want to wait today, we offer and ask you to coordinate the option of paying a housing certificate with the opportunity to buy them housing in the territory of the Donetsk Republic in any settlement. This, too, I think, will be in demand. It's a housing approach.

Approach to repairs: we have agreed that we will also allocate six thousand rubles [per square meter] for repairs inside an apartment or inside private houses.

Plus, you instructed to work out the possibility of a lump sum payment. Mr President, we have worked on the mechanism that was approved in Irkutsk during the flood, and you know it well, and I headed the headquarters there on your instructions and constantly reported to you on these issues. We propose to apply the same mechanism in these territories and we will provide everyone with a payment to all people who want to be repaired.

If you approved such approaches, we would prepare a corresponding order together with the Donetsk Republic and approve them at the Government level.

Vladimir Putin: Let's do it. But this should concern not only the Donetsk Republic, but also, say, the Lugansk Republic – where it is in demand, and where people expect it.

Maxim Khusnullin: Then we will work out this entire mechanism and report back.

Vladimir Putin: All right.

Maxim Khusnullin: Thank you, Mr President. [My Emphasis]

An interesting blend of 100% subsidized reconstruction combined with payments to individual owners of private housing stock needing repair which shows the demarcation between government as public utility and government as capital provider to private sector. It appears Azovstal will become a memorial park along the waterfront after its hazardous waste is removed. I also note how Putin is treating the Republics as no different from any Russian region. IMO, what's described for Mariupol will become a template for all liberated regions of Ukraine. Indeed, those still living in Kiev ruled regions will be looking keenly at how Russia redevelops the war-damaged zones, which appears to be happening with love and comradery which will greatly aid denazification.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 16:05 utc | 111

"Finally some Pentagon general...unlike Afghanistan, at least now they seem to see when certain... humiliation is on the horizon." [my deletions]

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 31 2022 16:55 utc | 15

It must be still Sunday, as I love Pepe's piece on Rumi: 'A Sufi is by definition a lover of God.' I must be aspiring to be a Sufi!

“If wheat is grown on the clay of my grave, and if you bake bread of it, your intoxication will increase, the dough and the baker will go mad and the oven will also begin to recite verses out of madness. When you pay a visit to my tomb, it will seem to be dancing for God has created me out of the wine of love and I am still the same love even if death may crush me.”-Rumi

Wonderful!Thank you, karlof1.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2022 16:08 utc | 112

Thank you, oldhippie | Aug 1 2022 15:52 utc | 112

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2022 16:25 utc | 113

#113 Karlofi

Thanks for this very interesting comment/post

Posted by: Gerrard White | Aug 1 2022 16:35 utc | 114

Also thanks, Gerrard White | Aug 1 2022 14:57 utc | 109 Good advice - I am aware of those posters. I would also recommend a PBS film "Wuhan, Wuhan" for a view of the earliest responses in that city. I don't usually watch videos,but felt this one didn't have an agenda, simply showed a personal take on the enormity of the crisis as it began there, how it was affecting a group of individuals.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2022 16:36 utc | 115

@ c1ue

Now you have really lost a lot of credibility in my eyes. You think I would care what European Catholics think of my faith? I hold back many comments from my local priest because I know what he would say, but that doesn't make me an invalid Catholic. The Church doesn't want robots. I detest fellow Catholics that don't open up their mind to genuine questioning regarding globalism and the Catholic Church's role in speaking truth to power.

Sure, I am a bad Catholic because I disagree with the current Pope who does not lead the Church on the offensive when it comes to the world, but rather genuflects at the world's altar, begging forgiveness for bringing Christianity and salvation to a people already conquered and rendered deeply-"othered" by European civilization. "Oh, please forgive us for having the heart to bring you into the fold as the western world had already taken everything from you."

I bet you don't think that the homeless should be touched on the street, either. That they should just be left to rot in their tents with their meth and their mental illness. "Oh, but what about their human rights?"

Same thing.

The Church has always been on a humanitarian mission. It seems as though you have been drinking the "Anti-Fascist" kool-aid, thinking that the Church was the vanguard of subjugation. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Yes, you sound like someone who knows very little about the Catholic Church. I am struggling to make sense of your "ad hominem" claim regarding this comment. Seems like that it was a fair take. Perhaps you have a deep-seated problem with overreacting when someone points out your ignorance.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 1 2022 16:53 utc | 116

@ 111 Juliania

Yes, I will just reiterate that we know that the Ukrainian servicemen are some true-believers and others just conscripted against their will.

The true-believers of them fancy themselves as indo-European Nationalists, regardless of Ukraine's actual history as being either under Russia's flag or totally balkanized. In short, they are quite deluded for this reason, though they do have cause to fear Soviet Revanchism, although Russia's actions currently are not in that vain, as we know.

They are also deluded because they are funded by the Satanic globalist west, which openly detests Nationalists.

It's a mess, and Hood's article does a good job of establishing his thesis that

1) Marxism as a geopolitical force is almost non-existant
2) Post-Marxism (Anti-Fascism) is a post-WW2 American export fostered by German Jews in exile and has deep-seated pathological hatred for tradition, culture, and nationalism
3) Current "leftists" are by their nature unable to reconcile the fact that the corporate establishment of the west is on their side. Instead of the band, "Rage Against the Machine," the left has become "Rage at the behest of the Machine."

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 1 2022 17:28 utc | 117

@nemesiscalling

"Dr. Gottfried cites Hobbes to show this isn’t a new problem in politics. Many know that Hobbes argued for a sovereign to protect from anarchy, but Dr. Gottfried says that an authority figure “may also be required to settle the matter of what words mean.” (141) In our society, those who control media and public education hold this authority. They can define not just “fascism” but what constitutes “the science,” what is “hate,” and what, if anything, is a “woman.” "

Thanks for raising the topic though I must confess that am no longer able to follow such discussions, in part because of the extract from your linked article above. Words have too many multiple meanings depending upon who is wielding them. At this bar I now simply ignore any discussion in which someone is frothing about 'fascists' because it seems to have become a cartoon depiction of raw evil and it seems also all western countries are entirely fascist and evil. I just can't respect such childish generalizations.

So I tried reading the article but cannot even identify what the subject matter is let alone the conclusion.

This paragraph also makes a little sense to me: "First, anti-fascism wasn’t a response to fascism, even though fascism was a response to Communist revolutions. Strange as it may sound, one could argue that there was anti-fascism before fascism. Originally, “anti-fascism” was the new name Communist and socialist movements gave to what they had always done: oppose any political and ideological opponents. This one just happened to be one their theories hadn’t predicted. A revolutionary right-wing movement would not have arisen without a leftist revolutionary movement to oppose."

To me this affirms my sense that words like communism and fascism have little inherent but much relative meaning: communists are anti-fascists and fascists are anti-communists. OK. But what are they really for? I give up. I don't believe there is any true communism in the mix any more these days but no doubt millions will defend the term (in dozens of different ways) to prove me wrong. But so what?

Our western post-war world is swimming in a sea of cognitive dissonance. It seems like Eurasia has a clear vision of how to manage things and demonstrated ability to do so. Probably it will all begin to clarify after a billion or two have been starved and murdered. That's usually what it takes to sort these wars of words out.

In any case, I appreciate your attempt, as always, to dig a little deeper and challenge many of the preconceptions flying around. I think a lot of people are going along with the powers that be even whilst thinking they are championing the common man and so forth. In an Empire of Lies, it is debatable what truth is when all is deception.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 1 2022 17:33 utc | 118

RE: "It seems like Eurasia has a clear vision of how to manage things and demonstrated ability to do so."

I have been waiting to see how well Russia walks her talk after the SMO. Well, we already have some hints although not much reported. Mariupol for example: within days of Azov factory finally surrendering reconstruction has begun. Food and water are trucked in. Buses back. Banking machines issue rubles. Citizens can receive Russian passports, presumably meaning also Russian citizenship. Schools are reopening. I suspect within a year the city will be better than it was before this started. So the Russian regime is moving quickly to re-establish a viable daily life for the resident of Mariupol. That is what governments are supposed to do and that is what Putin's Russia is doing.

That sort of thing - assuming my description is more or less accurate which is a little hard to tell and assuming it is happening in more places than only Mariupol - speaks far more to me than the back and forth political or ideological rhetoric on all sides which always seems to devolve into mud-slinging matches which serve mainly to dishonor all who take part in them, be they comment makes at a cyber bar or great nation states.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 1 2022 17:42 utc | 119

comment makers (not comment makes)...

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 1 2022 17:43 utc | 120

psychohistorian @85--

Here's Hudson's brief response:

"Real estate rent and monopoly rent and interest are the main rentier incomes. Dividends are a grey area, because they are technically equity -- which is why Islamic law would permit them in principle. But asset-price ('capital') gains are another thing."

I thanked him and asked a follow up. If that gets answered, I'll post it too.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 19:00 utc | 121

123 Cont'd--

I see the OP got cancelled as did my reply to snake, but his post remained.

So to Anonymous, your answer is @123.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 19:05 utc | 122

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2022 14:44 utc | 108

What you describe sounds possibly related to antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). If you haven't already, it might be informative to internet-search on that term.

Posted by: David Levin | Aug 1 2022 19:35 utc | 123

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 16:05 utc | 113

Thank you, Karl, for those excerpts. They reinforce my impression that on many projects undertaken by Russia, the objective has been to deliver as much value for the money as possible, rather than to generate as much profit from satisfying the deliverable as possible.

Is that your impression as well? To what extent does it seem to apply to Russia's private sector also?

Posted by: David Levin | Aug 1 2022 19:43 utc | 124

My buddy psychohistorian is really going to enjoy Alastair Crooke's latest, "Our ‘Rhythmically Dancing’ Physical Real Economy". Taking a page from Declan Hayes, Crooke begins his essay with a tribute to poet WB Yates that brings us to these two paragraphs:

"Today, the West is caught up in the ‘image-ideas’ of mechanistic causality and financialism. Wall Street economists pore over the entrails of monetary variables, and have come to see the world through mechanistic-financial spectacles.

"This artifice, however, was always illusory, giving its analysis a false sense of empiricism and of data-led certitude: The idea that real wealth would emerge out from inflated fiat debt; that such debt expansion had no boundaries; that all debt must be honoured; and its overhang was only to be solved by more debt was never credible. It was a ‘fairy tale’."

Such was the glamour that enthralled all too many and generated our current nightmare. Crooke continues his tale:

Nevertheless, we imagine ourselves to be objective, longing for simple, rational answers from ‘science’. And because the economy involves ‘money’, which is somewhat more readily measured, we assume it had a solidity, a realness that leaned to the notion that true (instead of ‘virtual’) prosperity could be conjured out of an ever-increasing mountain of debt.

Nonetheless, this changed attention has – literally – shaped how we ‘see’ the world. Some of its consequences might be hailed in terms of great tech advances, but we should be aware too, that it has also led to an increasingly mechanistic, materialist, fragmented, decontextualised world – marked by unwarranted optimism.

Financialism was, after all, just ‘a narrative’; one crafted by technicians, whose credentialled expertise ‘may not be questioned’. It was intended to support a particular illusion (in which many, including the money-men, firmly believed); It was the ‘myth’ of debt and credit-led, recession-free growth. The true aim though, always was the appropriation of global purchasing power to the oligarchic élites.

But there was an older black magic that empowered the money-myth, the very thing that fueled the empowerment of humans into a huge revolution that has yet to completely end--ancient solar energy sequestered within the earth as part of one of our planet's many cycles, in this case the Carbon Cycle, the black magic being coal, then later oil.

"The shift in narrative towards financialism nevertheless, has had the effect of removing attention from the ‘other’ facet; the obverse side of a dynamic real economy: that of being a physics-based network system, powered by energy."

I was curious when energy would finally enter the discussion aside from being the subject of illegal sanctions and poor policy choices prior to them. As Crooke notes in his Al-Mayadeen essay, "The EU Begins the Start to Retreat [on sanctions] Does the ECB drill for oil? Does the ECB run a farm? Does the ECB drive a truck? Does the ECB pilot a cargo vessel across the Pacific or load freight at the Port of Los Angeles?" The EU is backing down while trying to save face in its latest round of illegalities aimed at Russia. Being rolled back are sanctions on energy for machines and humans as the fiat euro dives downward having very little backing as the secondary title describes. Crooke continues his tale with a long citation attributed to longtime Oil Drum Blogger and ASPO activist Gail Tyverberg who "states the obvious: Modernity is contingent on fossil fuels."

Crooke's essay echoes numerous Oil Drum discussions we had examining Peak Energy and its affects on humanity in general and economies specifically. I recently tabulated the proven gas reserves of the top ten, eight of whom are connected to SCO or BRICS+ and thus reside outside NATO, while the two top NATO nations only have proven reserves at present extraction rates for just the next 17 years whereas the other eight can continue for many decades well into the 22nd Century.

At this point, Crooke's essays meld together. Hudson isn't the only one to observe that the triangle of Big Oil, Merchants of Death, and the FIRE sectors have built, captured and control the Outlaw US Empire's governing apparatus, and there are a certain number of analysts within that matrix who are genuine realists, not enthralled neoliberalcons, who understand hydrocarbon depletion rates and where the most reserves are located. Yes, the wars weren't specifically for oil but for energy resources that include oil, natgas, coal, uranium, and other components, but primarily for the first three--hydrocarbons. All of the Empire's quests to steal/acquire those resources have failed, although some is being stolen from Syria and previously from Iraq. But The Prize slipped through their fingers, or so they think--Russia--although Saudi Arabia was the First Prize but isn't any longer--it's too depleted.

If the Global South is going to develop so it can raise its populace from poverty, a high proportion of what remains of proven hydrocarbon reserves will be used for that project, while the West wants as much as possible for itself alone. Currently, the ultimate commodity and collateral are hydrocarbons. Other energy systems will eventually replace them, but not for several more decades as that capacity/capability will take time to build up. And thus NATO's very large, unspoken problem--its geoeconomic dependency on the rest of the world, flipping the relationship that's existed for the last 500+ years.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 20:17 utc | 125

David Levin @126--

Thanks for your reply. Russia's private sector seems to be thriving thanks to Russia's hybrid government owned utilities that both stimulate and subsidize the overall Russian economy. The housing industry and its reliance on banking is a case in point. Then there's the tough one--public sentiment: Optimistic or pessimistic. The former is good for the economy as it's in great measure a reflection on its performance and outlook whereas the latter outlook is part of what contributed to the USSR's fall. Another important aspect that I comment on occasionally is what's needed to help resolve Russia's demographic crisis, and that's the need for genuine optimism to reach a point where society is saturated with visions of a rosy future. Putin's talk that I wrote about here provides insight into its importance. At some point Europe will rediscover Russia as a partner only to realize that Russia has vastly reduced its dependence on the European market and trade relations will move into Russia's favor. That will likely promote the reentry of European firms into Russia to take advantage of its better equipped and lower cost labor force and energy costs, which will further boost Russia's economy and its private sector.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 20:42 utc | 126

karlof1 #128

That will likely promote the reentry of European firms into Russia to take advantage of its better equipped and lower cost labor force and energy costs, which will further boost Russia's economy and its private sector.

Perhaps, but these 'european firms' may have no bargaining power for tax concessions. It may be easier to set up shop in other severely impoverished states of the EU like their puppets in Romania or Moldova.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/07/27/our-european-values-1-21-euro-minimum-wage-in-ukraine/

On the question of western debt - what is to stop the Fed from declaring a partial debt jubilee for the 1% and sit back and watch the middle class bondholders burn? I understand the Fed is a private company with omnipotent decision making powers.

What political force could possibly get its sh!t together and challenge such a move?

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 1 2022 23:17 utc | 127

uncle tungsten @129--

The Fed can't legislate. Congress would have to pass and POTUS sign the relevant laws.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 23:50 utc | 128

karlof1 #130

Well I guess if the 1% owned the Congress and the president and the media and the force structure ...

I see signs of that possibility.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 2 2022 0:08 utc | 129

@NemesisCalling #118

The Church has always been on a humanitarian mission.

Bullshit. I don't even need to bother to refute this garbage - history is filled with the Catholic Church's direct misbehavior and both tacit and explicit acceptance of State misbehavior.

I don't attack your faith, but I do attack your completely nonsensical world view concerning what the Catholic Church is. Note again I use the word Catholic Church - because "The Church" is presumption of the highest degree.

And thank you for reconfirming that you're not a real Catholic.

Being Catholic isn't about what you think you are - it is what the Church considers Catholic. Denial of the Pope, Denial of the actual Catholic Churches views - that's not Catholicism - that's some mutant form of wannabe Protestantism.

If you want to pretend that your version of Catholicism is the "real" Catholicism, that's your prerogative but it is utterly delusional and so very American to believe your arrogant assumptions are ascendant over the actual Catholic Church.

At least Protestants are mostly honest about the presumption of personal faith.

You, sir, are a poser Catholic.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 0:16 utc | 130

@132 c1ue

It is sad that I feel such an anger from your post and even sadder that it is misguided to the nth degree.

It is clear that I can no longer reason with you on this matter so instead will again offer what you Areligious-types consider contemptibly presumptuous: I will pray for your soul that you can see that the Essence of the Church is its true face and that however fallen men seek to foul this image, they will not prevail.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 2 2022 0:27 utc | 131

@ karlof1 | Aug 1 2022 20:17 utc | 127 with the link and discussion of recent Crooke piece...thanks

Yes, it is gratifying to see others using concepts and descriptions similar to what I use. And it is good that these others are more eloquent than me in using them. May we all grow in knowledge and understanding of the moment humanity is in.

Thanks for all your contributions here

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 2 2022 1:28 utc | 132

I have enormous problems with people forcing others to convert, and also problems with religious people excusing such theo-fascism.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 1 2022 12:16 utc | 101

On this I agree with you, c1ue. This was not a good side of Catholicism.Those schools should never have done what they attempted to do, which was to erase native traditions from children estranged from their families. I don't think they were at all successful; it was simply very cruel. It sprang from the Inquisitions which were a dark side of the faith still operative when the Spanish explorers came.

Orthodoxy had a dark side also, early in its development of icons - so there are failures in all faiths being professed by humans and so humanly fallible. When iconoclasm happened in Orthodoxy, it was often Catholicism which came to the defence of the persecuted artists.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 2 2022 2:05 utc | 133

The USA vulture has landed.

With the best of intentions for Lebanon - of course.

The vulture is being fed by the illegal occupier of Palestine and is urged to negotiate 'their' gas field off the Lebanese coast.

Hezbollah watches:
https://thecradle.co/Article/News/13724

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 2 2022 2:14 utc | 134

After 20 years of occupying Afghanistan and then crawling away, the Taliban leadership gets them to take out their trash and drone some 71 year old on his front porch.

Such is empire.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 2 2022 2:29 utc | 135


Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 1 2022 17:28 utc | 119

Thanks for your response, NemesisCalling. I've now gone through and as you will have noted perhaps, agreed and disagreed with some of your positions. I would place the school disagreement in the same category as the concern for the Nazi attacks on the eastern oblasts, the latter being of course a harsher situation than the schools, though the damage inflicted on young minds is I think something which has stayed with many natives and their families to this day.

I was fortunate not to be treated like this in my own experience with Catholicism, but it was expected that I attend mass in the chapel on the school grounds even though I knew very little of what was required of me there, did often suffer teenage agony at the strange situation, newly arrived in the country as well (still the old latin format back then.) The nuns were kind, but reserved. There was also a religion class every morning and certain unfamiliar prayers through the school day.

I'm glad now that I had that experience; it has really helped in the long run.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 2 2022 2:29 utc | 136

What you describe sounds possibly related to antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). If you haven't already, it might be informative to internet-search on that term.

Posted by: David Levin | Aug 1 2022 19:35 utc | 125

Thank you, David. I remember discussions of ADE earlier in the pandemic, not recently though. I wonder if the rapidly mutating virus makes that less likely, though all the proactive health tips would still apply. What is discouraging is the descriptions of aggressive viral 'intelligence' as mutations occur. Hard to know if these are accurate. It's all above my pay grade, as they say.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 2 2022 3:39 utc | 137

covid , Ukraine was the one two punch to 'reset' world economy, get rid of the useless eaters, asset strip the third world.

All these engineered pandemic, fuel crunch, food crisis, hyper inflation...

cui bono,. ?

MIC, big pharma, big oil, Big Agri, WARst...

Who suffers ?
The useless eaters at home,
third world countries bankrupted by hyper inflation, at the tender mercy of IMF, Black rock..

Sri Lanka first to bite the dust, more to follow....

https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-capitalism-friedrich-boris/5785964

Posted by: denk | Aug 2 2022 4:22 utc | 138

@138 juliania

Can I ask what you think would have been an acceptable alternative for religious Catholics in their aid of Natives?

The reason I ask this question is because I can not think of any other acceptable post hoc treatment of the Natives after they had been conquered. Being conquered by western civilization meant being pushed out of ancestral lands and continually relegated to otherness in society. To take their land and push them into corners where they can not maintain the dignity of their lifestyle and without providing instruction on how to engage with the civilization that is replacing them, I think, is just as destructive to their livelihood as the initial conquering effects.

Being conquered is itself a part of life. It is an inescapable facet. Ask the Ukrainians right now. Ask the Americans wrt to China reducing their civilization to needy consumers.

I think it is telling that the Church has survived as long as it has and with billions of adherents. It must be doing something right. For those that will still insist that Catholicism is the vanguard of empire subjugation, do you really think Catholics want a world-cataclysmic event that the globalists are pushing us toward? Iow, do you think that Catholicism is only a useful tool of the oppressors to organize us into the great death march of globalism?

Remember, what the Church does through its adherents is imperfect, but the desire of good conduct worthy of our Lord's happy acknowledgement should be on the mind of every Catholic. I think many of these teachers of the Natives exhibited that. And I recognize that guilt being foistered on Catholics who are unapologetic in their view of these events in history is straight out of toolbox of the real oppressors who Gregory Hood addresses in his article I linked earlier.

Interesting that the two topics dovetail so well.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 2 2022 4:26 utc | 139

@ NemesisCalling | Aug 2 2022 4:26 utc | 141 who is totally blind to seeing his monotheistic/elitist religious faith in the context of the unipolar/multipolar world conflict that is going on.

Hey NemesisCalling. Are you blind to your unipolar bias you wish to force on others instead of being one of the thousands of other mythical claims to truth in our world?

You are being called out for your unipolar discrimination against all not members of your cult.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 2 2022 4:54 utc | 140

@ psychohistorian | Aug 2 2022 4:54 utc | 142

i don't see nemesis calling this way psychohistorian... in the same way i don't see you being crazy for wanting a public verses private finance system... i think there is room for everyone here in all of this... i get how many people have great hostility towards orthodox religion given the crimes they have committed in the past and perhaps in the present, but still - people benefit from them too... i get how people would be hostile to the private financial system too, especially as it continues to dominate our world...

maybe its just me, but i don't see nc the way you are describing them here.. you are welcome to have the generalized rant, but i don't think you can pin all that on nemesis calling.. cheers james

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 5:04 utc | 141

I want to encourage some positive threads of conversation at MoA within the context of the social revolution that is under way in our world.

What do we want the future to look like for our species?

Lets focus on one subject if possible in the beginning to see how we do and I want to suggest that that subject be education instead of FOOD, housing, etc.

What I want to see expressed are the balance of social support and social payback for that support around education.

I think that a government must oversee education and encourage the broadest sharing of information, culture, history, science, etc. I see education as part of a Global Common set of social services that are available to all people at all ages and backgrounds....but with limitations based on your life history (MERIT). I am against private education because I see it as discriminatory by definition...and have been exposed to too many second generation private educated assholes in my lifetime to support the belief.
I believe that most education should be free and widely available....as in all the best lectures about all subjects constantly updated, etc. Beyond a basic broad education, which I think should be a requirement (MERIT) and provided free, I think that "advanced" education needs to come in exchange with a commitment to pay back to society in defined/negotiated ways for the extra educational support.

In ending this attempt at futuristic thinking let me describe my use of MERIT
I have been a computer techie since 1969 and believe that humanity cannot hide from itself within a government, or within groupings of governments. China recognizes this identity and are choosing to build MERIT measures which guide an individuals ability to interact/receive things from society. The West does the same thing under the guise of financialization. I expect that currently that the West has more data on the public than China does to support it MERIT social system.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 2 2022 5:20 utc | 142

In response to
"
maybe its just me, but i don't see nc the way you are describing them here.. you are welcome to have the generalized rant, but i don't think you can pin all that on nemesis calling.. cheers james

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 5:04 utc | 143
"

I have been inculcated with Catholic values and support some of them. What I keep pointing out and NC continually obfuscates is the unipolar nature of monotheistic religions which also supports the behind the curtain God of Mammon unipolar religion that we are seeing under challenge today.

Put a cultural anthropology (CA) hat on for a minute and see why I think that the contribution to our species of monotheistic religions is negative on balance. The primary reason is that monotheistic religions have restricted "spiritual growth" by claiming and enforcing their spiritual truth for 2K+ years now.
Put that CA hat on now with a bit of a science tilt. Humanity knows a bit about less than 5% of the Cosmos we live in...we call it matter. The other 95% is speculated currently as being Dark Energy and Dark Matter and written about as being out in space instead of everywhere, like right here on spaceship Earth which shows another level of our hiding our ignorance...but the CA's know that it is delusional of our species to develop and waste time with most religious myths, but here we are.

In the past humanity had more fear and clutching onto myths to survive those times was necessary but I don't see the need personally as do many others currently. In clutching on to those myths came the God of Mammon I keep writing about that exists in the core of our social contract that we never talk about.

unipolar/multipolar...lets talk about it at all levels.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 2 2022 6:08 utc | 143

Looks to be just a few gardeners here and along with border requirements may be just pissing in the breeze.

Growing a hunter gatherer type garden, letting things go to seed and reproduce, a different pumpkin popped up. Cross between jap and butternut. Some of the fruit were a about butternuts - large solid stem end, small seed pod end.
I will give some seeds to my youngest daughter as she is interested in developing the line. I have kept seed from several pumpkins that were good shape. If anyone interested, my email addy is at my VK webpage. I doubt I will be around long enough to reproduce them into a distinct line. I will pay the postage for any that wants some of these seeds to develop the line.
VK site is linked in my username.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2022 6:10 utc | 144

psychohistorian
"What I keep pointing out and NC continually obfuscates is the unipolar nature of monotheistic religions which also supports the behind the curtain God of Mammon unipolar religion that we are seeing under challenge today."

The west is the superstitious beliefs and oral history of the hebrew tribe. Russia is the place where east meets west. Beliefs of the east are not based on hebrew superstition.

Julianna to me embodies what I read about the christian prophet in the anglo bible. Something to be respected. A very mild bloke/son of god however we look at things. Only time he got cranky was when he took a whip to the money changers. I always grin a bit when you take the whip to the money lenders.

Regardless of the bullshit of greek/roman democracy, the so called west are the continuation of Hebrew tribe hunter gather/oral history superstitions and mindset.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2022 7:24 utc | 145

VK site is linked in my username.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2022 6:10 utc | 146

Meant to put in - my email should be available at my vk page

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2022 7:48 utc | 146

Thank you, Australian Lady, for the nice words. I hope I can continue to put thoughts to writing that give an interesting perspective. We live in interesting times and I am just trying to keep up.

...

Thanks, James, for the nice thought that there is plenty of room for me here. I do not mean to launch into debate about religion, though I am happy to share and answer questions about our faith. My intentions were to defend the work and memory of those religious lives who served the Natives at those boarding schools.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 2 2022 8:17 utc | 147

Another Week in Review, and a lively one it is! Inspired by b’s crackdown on the Ukraine thread, and I noticed a recent missing Tweet on his account that was deemed too offensive to share, I thought I’d see what Canada’s Five Eyes branch (CSE Communications Security Establishment) has to say lately on cyber-concerns. A link to a colourful infographic on The 7 Red Flags of Phishing - https://twitter.com/cse_cst/status/1552700961788919808

With the analysis from multiple sources on Pelosi’s trip/non-trip to Taiwan, I couldn’t resist seeing if the New York Post had any views on it. I was not disappointed with this opinion piece from Aug.1st.
https://nypost.com/2022/08/01/pelosis-visit-could-accidentally-start-a-war-with-china-and-america-would-lose/

So the Pope’s back in the Vatican, where after meeting with the President of Fiji, he announced he would be travelling to Kazakhstan in September for the VII Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions. [does that mean no Mormons or Moonies??] This year’s topic: The Role of Leaders of World and Traditional Faiths in the Socio-Spiritual Development of Humanity after the Pandemic. That’s pretty heavy subject matter. But necessary to discuss, yes, based on views in this bar?

https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2022-08/pope-to-visit-kazakhstan-in-september.html

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Aug 2 2022 9:12 utc | 148

@NemesisCalling #131
Thank you for your prayers; I can only hope that you someday realize the solipsism of your views even as I wish you the best on your journey through life and faith.

I am and remain completely unmoved by exclamations of primacy of faith by anyone, particularly Christians since I come from a culture which has literally multiples of history compared to Christianity. Nor am I uneducated in Christianity - I attended a Christian school for 2 years and have read the entire Bible. That plus my inherent interest in history informs my opinion on Christianity - much the same as any other religion: does good for many people, has institutions and/or customs that are inherently dangerous in the wrong hands and has been abused in this way in the past (and sometimes present).
The present Pope's support of the sanctioning of the Orthodox Patriarch, Kirill, is a particularly egregious example.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 12:00 utc | 149

@psychohistorian #143

You said

Put a cultural anthropology (CA) hat on for a minute and see why I think that the contribution to our species of monotheistic religions is negative on balance. The primary reason is that monotheistic religions have restricted "spiritual growth" by claiming and enforcing their spiritual truth for 2K+ years now.

I think this is unfair; there are also many examples where monotheistic religions have contributed positively.

Is the balance negative? I would say that your statement needs evidence.
Merely asserting a lack of "spiritual growth" is a statement that monotheistic religions have failed because they haven't made their adherents perfect.
That is clearly an arbitrarily set high bar of success - people hack religions just as they hack any other institution.
I do give the Catholic Church credit for (eventually) reforming the most egregious abuses, for example.

The existence of monotheistic religion does have concrete impact, as well. Andrew Carnegie was, by most accounts, one of the most rapacious industrialists around. He fought J.P. Morgan and won, for example. Carnegie officially rejected Christianity, but clearly was influenced by it. His views led him to use his fortune to build libraries, universities etc.

For the Andrew Carnegies of today - what is going to prompt them to do the same?

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 12:13 utc | 150

A more sober look at the SMIC 7nm process: it does not appear to be "home grown"

7 nm chips by China

The 7nm process is a copy of the N7 node TSMC put into mass production four years ago. China has had access to any number of ex-TSMC engineers and is spending infinite money to play chip catch-up, so the existence of a cloned fab still two cycles behind earns a "well done, I guess" by itself.

Original article from Tech Insights - with pics

...

There are lots of interesting things about TSMC's N7 node, the most important being that it doesn't use the 13.5nm wavelength Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography process to print the patterns on wafers that make them into circuits.

...

TSMC's N7 was the pinnacle of that process, an amazing, tottering pile of near-magic photon-wrangling audacity, a melange of multiple overlapping mask exposures and complex production tricks. That it could work at all was amazing, that it could do good yields? Unbelievable.

...

All the weird tricks to make DUV operate far above its pay grade had broken many chipmaking rules. It used to be that once you got your new fab running, that was it. You were ready to cash in your Moore's Law bonus.

Intel's famous tick-tock cadence relied on this. A new node first got a proven chip design – tick – to be re-engineered later. Tock. Two helpings of spicy performance, but the risks of changing too much are nicely limited.

...

TSMC's N7 is as far from those halcyon days as you can get. Each different design needs a lot of work to get from circuit to chip. You can't take an old design and slap it in, not at the complete design level, not at the functional block level, not at the transistor level. Everything needs to be reinvented, the tools, the techniques, the lot. Every company in the game had to pick its own path through these problems while EUV sulked in its tent – or not. It's no coincidence Intel's tick-tock wound down as DUV got increasingly complex.

Another broken rule was that if you could make one logic design in a process, you were guaranteed to be able to make anything else on it, almost by default. Like doing a jigsaw. N7 is more like painting in oils. What China has looks very much like a one-off proof of concept that they can produce one particular chip in 7nm, not any chip in 7nm. It's also an ASIC crypto-miner, highly parallel, low complexity.

So:

1) SMIC's/China's 7 nm process is not home-grown - it is using last gen DUV and very possibly a copy of TSMC's 7nm process.

This is a very different story than one of China recreating the entire semiconductor design chain into matching or nearly matching leading edge TSMC's or Samsung's capabilities.

2) The 7nm process is using DUV - which was not export banned by ASML

3) SMIC is only creating ASIC miners for its 7nm process. If true, that is very consequential.

4) 7nm means any and every design hoping to fab is a hard core design process (I agree with this). I think 7nm is perfectly fine for high performance chips. The design cost is an issue but not an insuperable one given China's huge market domestic potential.

5) The note on Intel's business model is also very telling. As I have noted before: Intel would use the high cost of the latest and greatest chips to defray the design and manufacturing ramp up costs for new processes/chips. The subsequent chips would be manufactured using a newer process but basically the same design, shrunk down. The business impact of this is that the newer process would be paid for by the latest generation chip ASPs, but the older generation chips would be dramatically cheaper - even more profitable than the newest chips - because of the smaller silicon footprint from the newer process.

For example: let's use .13um --> 90 nm --> 65 nm as an example.

0.13um is around the 2000 time frame - when I was still in the industry. The Pentium 4 was the 0.13um process Intel flagship CPU then.
I don't remember the exact pricing for the first Pentium 4s, but it was pretty high - $500? $700?

As Intel went into 90nm, it came out with a new Pentium 4 - which it also priced at $500? $700?.

However, the first gen design Pentium 4 - the one from the 0.13 um process - was scaled into 90nm. This shrunk the silicon cost by roughly 30% - this first shrink isn't just plug and play as the design team also puts in bug fixes and what not, but it is a far, far cheaper effort than the original design. So Intel is selling the 1st gen Pentium 4s for $400? $500? but its cost fell by at least 30% (I say at least because capital recapture is part of cost, not just raw manufacturing).

At 65nm - the Pentium 4 brand is still going. There are now both a 2-core Pentium 4 and a single core Pentium 4.

The original Pentium 4 design is now shrunk to 65nm - silicon cost is 50% (half) and both design and manufacturing capital investment has long since been captured. Intel can sell these "original Pentium" chips - i.e. Celeron-like - for $150-$200 and make huge profit.

What the Register article noted above, which I believe is true, is that the above Intel timeline and business operating plan can no longer work. A design that was created for 10nm cannot be cheaply and simply shrunk to 7nm, much less 5nm - each one is basically most of a brand new design effort.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 12:48 utc | 151

Student debt: its not just for kids, anymore

The Aging Student Debtors of America - NewYorker

Americans aged sixty-two and older are the fastest-growing demographic of student borrowers. Of the forty-five million Americans who hold student debt, one in five are over fifty years old. Between 2004 and 2018, student-loan balances for borrowers over fifty increased by five hundred and twelve per cent.

...

in an era of declining wages and rising debt, Americans are not aging out of their student loans—they are aging into them.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 12:51 utc | 152

When the WSJ starts talking about regular people suffering...

Dollar Store Dinners and Vats of Shampoo Help Families Cope with High Prices - wsj.com

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 2 2022 12:53 utc | 153

@ psychohistorian | Aug 2 2022 6:08 utc | 143

i don't want to say i understand you, because i don't! unipolar verses multipolar.... to me all the world religions represent a multipolar world... the fanatics in these religions will claim theirs is the only ''one true religion'', but i am not persuaded by the fanatics... i think there is merit in all of them as they offer something that science doesn't offer.. or maybe science offers it too - a real devotion to an outlook, which will also be subject to change as new information or understanding becomes available...

i seem to recall a number of politicians saying to trust the science on covid... of course new information becomes available and it forces people to revise their position on what is, or isn't.... i think one major difference between religion and science is the idea of a subjective, verses an objective view on ''reality''... all of it is subject to revision if new information becomes available.. when it comes to beliefs, people are not easily changed.. wanting to dismiss religion based on the past seems like an easy thing to do and yet, many people are looking for something that is not provided in the world today... i say - let people have their religion or spirituality in the way that they feel it brings meaning and purpose to their lives... as i see it our poster juliania embodies the many positive aspects of this... like i said psychohistorian - i think it takes all kinds to make up this planet and there is room for most everyone on it, if it is done in a spirit of compassion and empathy... i am in agreement with your input at moa on the topic of finance too.. i too went to a catholic school up until grade 3 and have some background that was not pretty and where their was more emphasis on discipline then on compassion.. we all come by our perspective in our own way... cheers..

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 16:21 utc | 154

It's time again for another briefing by Maria Zakharova, the transcript is still in Russian and isn't yet complete. It seems every point has some barbed remark aimed at the Collective West. For example, on the ASEAN's 55th Anniversary, Maria notes:

A distinctive feature of the current period is that this year marks the 55th anniversary of ASEAN. The Forum was organized in August 1967.

For more than half a century, the Association has become one of the most authoritative international organizations, has gained a foothold as a significant element of the emerging multipolar world order, a center of attraction that has closed many key political and economic processes of the Asia-Pacific region.

ASEAN's unwavering commitment to the principles of broad, inclusive interaction, harmonious coexistence of all members of the international community, despite differences in the form of state structure, economic structure and cultural and civilizational code, allowed it to create an integral system of cooperation-oriented multilateral mechanisms – a unique example of this kind of interaction in the world.

Russia has always shared the positive philosophy of ASEAN, which is the most important factor cementing our strategic partnership with the Group of Ten. This allows, despite the current international turbulence, to continue joint work on the entire agenda, expand the range of interaction mechanisms, raise the level of industry cooperation, deepen trade, economic and humanitarian ties. The direction of ASEAN is one of the key ones in Russia's foreign policy in Asia.

The Association's approach to international relations, based on a patient search for common ground and embodying the centuries-old political culture and ethics of Asian states, was called the "ASEAN way". I think that the elites of many Western countries, who are experiencing a crisis of confidence on the part of the population and the growth of public skepticism about ideologized foreign policy attitudes, have something to learn from the Association.

Dismissive attitude with "top-down" views, the definition of oneself as "developed", and the rest - "developing" or "lagging behind"; the selection of democracies, the queuing up for admission to the "right" democracies – all this is over.

Today, the West has a lot to learn (if they give themselves the opportunity) from countries that use their own history and experience as a "lodestar" in turbulent international relations. This shows the whole spectrum – from experience and professionalism to culture and traditions – in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. As our friends, the real partners with whom the Russian delegation headed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held numerous talks the other day, remarkably said, "The West is sick with amnesia." In many ways, this is the answer, what is happening to them now. [My Emphasis]

Once the transcript's complete, I'll be back to share further highlights.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 2 2022 18:10 utc | 155

@james | Aug 2 2022 16:21 utc | 154

to me all the world religions represent a multipolar world

I concluded long ago heartfelt pleas to a "higher power" are answered from a common realm, irrespective of whether the person's tradition is monotheistic, shamanistic (which isn't meant pejoratively), or other.

i think one major difference between religion and science is the idea of a subjective, verses an objective view on ''reality''

In practice, much of science manifests so much dogmatism and illogic as to render it less "reasonable" than religion.

Posted by: David Levin | Aug 2 2022 18:25 utc | 156

@ karlof1 | Aug 2 2022 18:10 utc | 155

thanks karlof1... i try to read them all and appreciate your sharing here..

@ David Levin | Aug 2 2022 18:25 utc | 156

thanks david... i agree with your perspective shared here!

Posted by: james | Aug 2 2022 18:40 utc | 157

Who do they think they're kidding Dept.

I had to laugh out loud at yesterday's Fake News...

"CIA kills leader of Al-CIA-duh."
"Biden blames Taliban for protecting Al-CIA-duh."
(But forgets to blame CIA for inventing Al-CIA-duh)

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 2 2022 19:16 utc | 158

OMFG another Russian defectortraitor poisoned.

Not novihoax but, but, but, pfizer....

https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/08/03/the-2nd-dumbest-thing-you-can-do/

One of Russia’s longest-tenured government officials, Anatoly Chubais, who, being Yeltsin’s finance minister, was (still is) a much-despised “young star” of Russian privatization and shock therapy of the 1990s…..

…..and who was allowed (due to a commitment Putin made to Yeltsin, and/or because Putin is a “nice guy” who doesn’t purge anyone who’s not an obvious problem) to stay on in the Putin government (most recently as some kind of “climate advisor”—I suppose Chubais’ name is so toxic, he could not jump off and find a suitable private sector job)…..

……and who disappeared and “fled” Russia like a rat, within days of “the invasion”, being spotted at an ATM in Turkey and a supermarket in Cyprus, before Russia’s press lost interest and stopped with the “Where’s Waldo?” treatment…..

Beware includes an intimate touching scene with Yeltsin ;/

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 3 2022 8:53 utc | 159

More inflation fun

As Inflation Surges, More Americans Are Living Paycheck To Paycheck

Although average hourly earnings are up 5.1% from a year ago, prices have been rising even faster, especially for groceries and — until quite recently — gasoline, so paychecks can’t stretch as far.

Inflation was reported in June 2022 to be 9.1% year on year.

So it means the average worker LOST 4% of income...

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 3 2022 11:32 utc | 160

Zoltan Pozsar latest - Newyorkpost

Zoltan Pozsar, the global head of short-term interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse Group AG, wrote a client note pushing back on widespread sentiment that the worst of inflation may be behind us and that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates.

Instead, the US may have to gird for a so-called “L-shaped” recession that will be deeper and longer than expected, according to Pozsar.

Pozsar cited the ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine as well as disruptions to the supply chain exacerbated by intermittent COVID-related lockdowns in China.

“War is inflationary,” Pozsar wrote. His note was earlier cited by Bloomberg.

“Think of the economic war as a fight between the consumer-driven West, where the level of demand has been maximized, and the production-driven East, where the level of supply has been maximized to serve the needs of the West.”

Pozsar also cited restrictions on immigration and a decrease in mobility brought about by the pandemic as key factors that have resulted in a tight labor market.

As a result, Pozsar writes that the Fed may need to raise interest rates to either 5% or 6% and keep them there for a sustained period of time in order to cool down consumer demand so that it matches the tight supply.

Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs are warning investors against complacency while noting that the economy remains at high risk of falling into a recession.

“Looking at the re-pricing of cyclical assets in the US and EU, we think the market might have been too complacent too soon in fading recession risks on expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance,” Goldman analysts wrote.

Note Pozsar said earlier that the Fed is targeting demand reduction - i.e. job losses - as the means to fight inflation...

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 3 2022 11:59 utc | 161

Chas Freeman interview on Pelosi's trip to China: https://schillerinstitute.com/blog/2022/08/02/interview-ambassador-chas-freeman-pelosis-extreme-irresponsibility/

Posted by: Susan W | Aug 3 2022 18:33 utc | 162

As noted in my FYI, here's the article link, which is in Russian, and its machine translation below. Omitted is empahsis provided in the original:

Article by Director of the Department of Foreign Policy Planning of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Drobinin "Lessons of History and the Image of the Future: Reflections on Russia's Foreign Policy", published in the magazine "International Affairs" on August 3, 2022
1594-03-08-2022

It so happened that our country is again experiencing a turning point in its more than a thousand-year history. We have to deal with the aggressive reaction of some external players to absolutely justified actions to protect vital interests in the western direction. A man-made crisis of European security and the entire international order formed as a result of the Second World War has emerged.

Although more than one generation has grown up in relatively peaceful times, the situation of conflict is rather the norm for a country with such geography and interests as Russia. Domestic experts draw different historical analogies. Someone compares the current stage with the era of Alexei Mikhailovich Tishaishy, when the Muscovite state gradually returned the Western Russian lands. Others see similarities to the Crimean War, when Russia faced "unprecedented hatred from the West."[1] Still others refer to the experience of "taming for the benefit of oneself and all mankind" the imperial ambitions of Sweden after Poltava, France after Borodino, Germany after Stalingrad and Berlin[2]. Others compare the confrontation between Russia and the West with the Cold War of the 1940s and 1980s.[3] Some believe that the scale of today's changes exceeds the tectonic shift of 1989-1991, "when there was a radical change in the balance of power, but the very principles of world politics and the rules of behavior have not changed dramatically."[4]

Such parallels, for all their conventionality, have one thing in common – they all emphasize the epochal significance of the events taking place. Without exaggeration, we can say that the special military operation was a milestone on the way to a new world order, a new alignment of forces in the international arena. The alignment will largely depend on the course of hostilities, changes in the structure of the world economy and the parameters of the political settlement of the conflict. Someday this puzzle will come together. In the meantime, fate itself has again put Russia in the position of one of the main creators of world history.

* * *

Engaging in historical creativity means, among other things, clearly seeing and understanding the existing realities. Of course, when a lot changes and not everything is clear, there is a temptation to draw simple conclusions (like "the world will never be the same again"). Such conclusions easily enter the consciousness, but do not give much to the mind. For a better understanding of what is happening, it is useful to keep in front of your eyes the long-term trends of world development. Those that formed long before the start of the WWO and will continue to move the lithospheric plates of history after its completion.

What trends are we talking about?

It is logical to start with the most fateful process – the formation of a multipolar world order. That is the essence of the changes in the international system. As President Vladimir Putin noted, we are talking about "the transition from liberal-globalist American egocentrism to a truly multipolar world based on the true sovereignty of peoples and civilizations"[5]. It should be added that, according to the generally accepted assessment, this transition began shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the socialist commonwealth, marking the end of the bipolar order, which rested on the Soviet-American balance of power, and the short by historical standards "unipolar moment" of the early 1990s, when one short-sighted political scientist suddenly proclaimed the "end of history".

As has happened more than once, the path to a new power equilibrium has taken on a protracted and nonlinear character. Russia and other leading states will have to pass it – although this may take many more years. Objective facts and phenomena that do not depend on anyone's desires indicate that the stability of the modern world will be ensured by coordinating the interests of several systemically important centers of economic power and political influence. Time will tell who will become "shareholders" of the multipolar system, how many of them there will be.

The civilizational approach seems to us to be analytically productive and politically sound. In his logic, the players at the global level will be politically consolidated civilizational communities headed by a leading state. For example, Russia and the Eurasian Commonwealth, China and the East Asian Community, the United States and the Anglo-Saxon sphere, as well as indian, Arab-Muslim, continental-European and others.

Whatever the structure of the future world order, there is already a competition for the right to establish its basic principles – what can simply be called norms of behavior. Competitive advantages in this multifaceted competition are possessed by strong, technologically developed states capable of projecting outside not only military force, but also spiritual, moral and moral values. As Sergey Lavrov noted, "we are talking about countries with a well-organized central government, responsible and capable, able to respond to natural or other disasters with maximum efficiency (from the point of view of ensuring the interests and safety of their citizens). China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Mexico... with economic weight comes political influence. This cannot be ignored."[6]

The embodiment of multipolar diplomacy has become the BRICS association, which plays an increasingly important role on the world stage. The Brix agenda is "sharpened" to address issues of international development common to their participants. It is also worth looking at the prospects of the MIKTA group, which includes regional powers such as Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia – although the real impact of its activities has yet to be assessed. But the Group of Seven quite predictably lost the authority of the generator of solutions to global problems, turning, in fact, into a mechanism for Washington to discipline its satellites on issues of opportunistic interest to the United States.

The accelerator of the formation of polycentrism since the mid-2000s is the crisis of globalization, which put an end to the monetary, financial, technological and cultural dominance of the United States. During the stock collapse of 2008-2009, the American "core" of the global system of capitalism was struck by a blow of such force that it still has not recovered from it. Meanwhile, the shift in the focus of economic activity to the Asia-Pacific region, China's breakthrough into the leaders of the world economy are proceeding by leaps and bounds. According to the World Bank, already in 2017, Beijing surpassed Washington in terms of gross domestic product (calculated at purchasing power parity), and even earlier, in 2010, in terms of industrial production. However, the gross product is still an indicator of the state of the economy: with its spaces, natural resources (the World Bank estimates them at $ 75 trillion or more), accumulated material and technical wealth, Russia is not inferior to any state (while in terms of nominal GDP, the IMF puts our country only in 11th place). It should also be noted here that, looking into the world of the future, some Russian experts predict "the disintegration of the global economic system into several large macro-regions"[7], others talk about the emergence of two or more techno-economic blocs – "large pieces of the market", including "a currency zone, a set of resources, a philosophy of development, a set of basic technologies" [8] – which will compete with each other.

Everyone will benefit from multipolarity and deglobalization, provided that no one interferes with the natural course of these objective processes. Here, the behavior of the ruling circles of North America and Western Europe is crucial. If they do not remove the now humanly understandable painful feeling of losing power over the world and continue to "grab hold of the colt" whenever patient diplomacy is required, the alarming trend of increasing the importance of the power factor in international affairs will continue and intensify. Western arrogance has been fueled by decades (if not centuries) of impunity and permissiveness. How else to explain the adventurism of American presidents who have taken the trouble to declare a threat to the national security of countries located tens of thousands of kilometers from the United States? The result of military interventions (for example, in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan) was the destabilization of entire regions.

In the conditions of real multipolarity, the very formulation of the question of military control of remote territories, not to mention forceful invasions in the interests of deterring other centers of power, causes active rejection and opposition. The risks of unintended consequences of armed actions are multiplied by the fact that the very nature of power politics is changing, the line between military and non-military means of its conduct is blurring. The imbalance at the global level doubles the willingness of regional players to realize their interests by any available means, sometimes very opportunistically. At the initiative of the United States, the mechanisms of arms control and maintenance of strategic stability created by the efforts of generations of negotiators are being dismantled. At the doctrinal level, the Americans lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. These and other disturbing moments once again bring to the attention of military planners the most dangerous scenarios of a clash of nuclear powers, fraught with catastrophic consequences.

The driving force of deep, hard-to-calculate transformations in the social, economic and political picture of the world is the next scientific and technological revolution. The emerging technological order is based on improved information and communication, energy, biomedical and nanotechnologies, elements of artificial intelligence. Ensuring technological sovereignty is a strategic task of any serious state that claims to play an independent role in the highly competitive era that has come. Establishing ethical standards for the use of emerging technologies, developing rules for responsible behavior of states, adapting management structures in the field of information security, healthcare, ecology and climate are turning into major "long-playing" topics on the diplomatic agenda.

The shift in external balances, the increase in the conflict of the international environment encourage countries to seek internal reserves, to turn to the foundation of their history and culture. As if "from the opposite", the promotion by the Western globalist class of the neoliberal value agenda (human rights, gender, legalize, bioethics, transhumanism, etc.) also works for this. As a natural human reaction to such decadent manifestations, the influence of the cultural and civilizational factor is steadily increasing. By the way, the Ukrainian crisis reflected a new reality like a drop of water: with isolated exceptions, representatives of all civilizational communities of the East and the South, including the Arab-Muslim world, African and Latin American civilizations, the ASEAN community, perceive the anti-Russian sanctions campaign of the Western minority as a clear relapse of neocolonial thinking.

* * *

Comprehension of global trends, of which our country is a part, helps to determine the vectors of application of foreign policy efforts. And here it is important to understand that the diplomacy of a state like Russia cannot but be successive. Like the next set course powerful ocean cruiser, it is not characterized and contraindicated by sharp turns.

The development of the conceptual framework of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation proceeded in stages, the thought process never stopped. A kind of milestones on this already quite long path are the strategic documents of 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016 approved by the country's leadership.

Contrary to a common misconception, many of the ideological constructions inherent in the domestic diplomatic school today were not born in recent years or months. An instinctively correct understanding of national interests has always been present, even in the naïve-romantic nineties with their reckless rejection of the Soviet legacy in all forms, including the unique experience of managing interpower confrontation and practical developments of cooperation with the developing world.

Suffice it to say that already in the "Basic Provisions of the Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation" of 1993, the thesis is held that relations in the post-bipolar era should be based on the principles of polycentrism. At the same time, the special importance of Russian interests in the immediate geopolitical environment was recorded – through the prism of "preventing disintegration processes in the space of the former USSR." Along with the ambitious task of bringing cooperation with Washington to the level of strategic partnership, the goal was set to counteract the attempts of the United States to turn into a single superpower. The latter is a worldview that points to the rejection of the authoritarian, hegemonic system of international relations, which only strengthened in the following years.

The trend of economic and power dominance of the United States is fixed in the Foreign Policy Concept approved by President Vladimir Putin in 2000 as an unacceptable development of events. Therefore, the democratization of international relations, the formation of a UN-centric model based on collegiality mechanisms and the supremacy of international law were formulated as a priority task of Russian diplomacy. One of the pillars of global stability is presciently called cooperation between Russia and China. Thus, a systemic foundation was made for the future of Russian-Chinese relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation.

The updated version of the Concept, approved by President Dmitry Medvedev in 2008, for the first time called Russia a "major Eurasian power", highlighted the importance of ideological, ideological and civilizational aspects of international competition. A long-term trend has been identified, which has been fully revealed in recent years: losing its position as a world leader and the main beneficiary of globalization, the West has set a course to contain Russia. Our country was not looking for confrontation: the document contained the thesis that equal cooperation in the Russia-EU-US triangle would contribute to strengthening the stability of the Euro-Atlantic region.

Five years later, as amended by the 2013 Concept. the task of promoting the development of the national economy and its transfer to innovative rails is more prominently spelled out. The need for widespread use of mechanisms for the formation of a positive image of Russia, its domestic and foreign policy in world public opinion is emphasized.

The current version of the Concept, approved by President Vladimir Putin in 2016, fixes the life-tested principles of foreign policy: independence, multi-vector, pragmatism, openness, the desire to solve all problems by political and diplomatic means in compliance with international law. The document was formed under the influence of serious changes in international relations in the context of the Ukrainian crisis of 2014-2015 and political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa. It is noted that progress towards a multipolar world order is not conflictual, accompanied by an aggravation of global and regional contradictions, interstate competition, and an increase in the role of the power factor in world politics. Further development was given to the idea that the west's desire to maintain its positions is realized through the containment of alternative centers of power, including the diverse pressure of the United States, NATO and the European Union on our country. Nevertheless, Russia's orientation towards the formation of a common space of peace, security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region, building pragmatic mutually beneficial relations with the United States, taking into account the special responsibility of the two states for global strategic stability and the state of international security, was reaffirmed. The most important innovation is the reconfiguration of priorities in the Eurasian space, taking into account the creation of the EAEU and with an eye to building an open economic partnership on its basis, which also covers the SCO and ASEAN countries. Russia's participation in such multilateral formats as the G20, BRICS and the RIC (Russia-India-China) is noted in a positive way.

These, in general, are the main elements of the ideological baggage that we have, this is what a virtual starting point looks like for further work on the conceptual framing of Russian foreign policy in the new conditions.

* * *

The multidimensional process of editing the new version of the Foreign Policy Concept with the involvement of interested authorities and the expert community was launched in 2021. They are being finalized taking into account the development of the international situation. Here I would like to dwell on some key aspects of our analysis.

Regardless of the duration and outcome of the SVO, it can already be stated that the thirty-year era of generally constructive, albeit troubled, cooperation with the West is irrevocably over. The current situation provides a unique opportunity for the final liberation from residual illusions and the withdrawal of Russia from the paradigm of "friendly absorption", which was reproduced from time to time by Western colleagues after 1992.

By the way, the West's hostility to us is nothing new. Even during the Crimean War (1854-1856), the British poet Lord A. Tennyson openly said that he hated Russians and Russia. The German Kaiser Wilhelm (1888-1918) wrote in his memoirs: "There is nothing I can do about myself. I know it's not Christian, but I hate Slavs."[9] That is, Russophobia is not something marginal. It is a virus that sits deep in the minds of the intellectual and political elite.

A number of domestic experts argue that the current quarrel around Ukraine puts an end to the whole historical era of Rapprochement between Russia and Europe, begun by Peter the Great, and today "we reserve the "Peter's" page of our history"[10]. We can agree with this, but only partially. I would not confidently talk about Moscow's pre-Petrine closure from the West. There are many arguments in favor of the opposite – from the foreign trade and cultural interaction of Veliky Novgorod with the cities of the Hanseatic League and the marriage of Ivan III with Sophia Palaiologos approved in the Vatican to the offensive policy of Ivan IV in the western direction. Rather, it makes sense to talk about Peter the Great's introduction of "Westernism" into the self-consciousness of the ruling layer in Russia, the creation of a foundation for its ideological demarcation with the masses. As political scientists correctly note, "Since the time of Peter the Great, Russian elites have looked to the West, adopted Western fashion and behavior, introduced Western institutions, borrowed Western philosophies, sought to enter the great European powers; then, in the Soviet era, to become a global superpower, and in a later period, a key component of greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. It's a rut that's hard to get out of."[11] The irrational equal sign between "Western" and "progressive", "Western" and "attractive" at different stages of Russian history, which has really taken root since those times, more or less predetermined the vectors of development in domestic and foreign policy. Today, this approach is no longer relevant. Both we and the rest of the world have changed.

Russia has entered an acute phase of confrontation with an aggressive alliance of unfriendly states led by the United States. The enemy's goal is to inflict a strategic defeat on our country by eliminating it as a geopolitical competitor. It should be understood that in the face of the Russophobic collective West, we have a dangerous, motivated and, despite the gradual and irreversible weakening of aggregate power, still a strong rival with advanced military-technical potential and controlling a significant part of global markets, financial resources, logistics chains and information flows.

For some of us, this reversal came as an unpleasant surprise, and it is understandable. Strategies of convergence, "embedding", dialogue and common spaces have figured prominently in planning for many years. However, in the "X hour" it turned out that the hostile NATO bloc was developing the territories adjacent to the vital areas of central Russia (the Baltic States, Ukraine), and the European Union was spreading its neocolonial influence to the whole of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia, despite the existing integration associations (the EAEU and the CIS). It is clear that this reality is the result of years of arrogant disregard for Russia's honest attempts to negotiate with the West on the rules of coexistence, and it can no longer be tolerated.

It is certainly in Russia's interest to engage constructively with all its neighbours, including in the Euro-Atlantic region. This is the goal that must be pursued. But not at the cost of unilateral concessions – especially concessions to those who openly declare Russia the main threat, as stated in the NATO Strategic Concept, adopted at the end of June 2022 at the summit in Madrid. In such circumstances, cooperation with unfriendly states is possible only on a one-time, transactional basis – it can be carried out only where it is beneficial to Russia and where there is no acceptable alternative.

The argument that the quarrel with Europe is beneficial to the Anglo-Saxons is only partially true – to the extent that Atlanticist politicians remain "at the helm" of key European states. Internal transformations of European societies and socio-economic systems will not necessarily preserve the existing political alignment. Europe's appetite for strategic autonomy is still strong, and nationally-oriented parties and movements are enjoying growing popularity. A practical challenge for Russia is to offer Europe a formula for future cooperation, which, on the one hand, would support the autonomist aspirations of Europeans, and on the other hand, would guarantee that the European direction will not pose threats to the security of our country in any sphere (military, economic, technological, cultural and humanitarian, etc.).

The aggravation of contradictions between the major powers could not but affect multilateral diplomacy. It turned out that in the absence of the will to honest dialogue, organizations and discussion clubs created at the best of times quickly lose their role as negotiation platforms and turn into an arena for propaganda battles.

Actually, this trend has been gaining momentum for more than one year. The United States blocked the WTO Dispute Settlement Body, for many years it has not been possible to agree on a joint political declaration of the foreign ministers of the OSCE countries, there are other examples. After the start of the CBO, Westerners set out to excommunicate Russia from participation in global and regional structures – from the UN Human Rights Council and the World Tourism Organization to the Council of the Baltic Sea States. There is no need to talk about the ugly situation in the field of international sports, disfiguring the "all-weather" meaning of the Olympic movement.

The central coordinating role of the UN is undermined by the concept of a "rules-based order" with its diverse partnerships, coalitions and "appeals", whose functionality duplicates the terms of reference of the specialized agencies and institutions of the World Organization. Westerners have actually "privatized" executive structures, including the UN Secretariat, the offices of special envoys and special representatives of the Secretary General – both country and functional – by saturating them with their "proven" personnel (this also applies to neo-O mechanisms – such as, for example, the Technical Secretariat of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons).

The saddest thing is that rye undermines the "holy of holies" of the UN system – the Security Council. The meaning of the veto power, which the founding fathers endowed the permanent members of the Security Council with one single goal: to prevent the interests of any of the great powers from being infringed upon, and thus to save the world from a direct clash between them, which in the nuclear era is fraught with catastrophic consequences, is being devalued. One of the symptoms of the disease is the refusal of the "Western Troika" to work with Russia and China on the practical implementation of the initiative to convene a summit of the leaders of the "five" countries of the UN Security Council, put forward by President Vladimir Putin in January 2020. the basic – "Westphalian" – principle of sovereign equality of states.

There are no simple recipes for correcting the situation here. Clearly, more conscious effort and imagination is needed with regard to UN reform. The Security Council needs to be democratized, primarily by increasing the representation of African, Asian and Latin American countries. Perhaps the time has come to ask how much the UN's work agenda is in tune with the interests of the majority of members of the international community. For many of them, access to cheap energy sources (and not the transition to "green" technologies), socio-economic development (and not human rights in the ultra-liberal reading), security and sovereign equality (and not the artificial imposition of electoral democracy according to Western patterns) are of topical importance. Lastly, the topic of the completion of the decolonization process and the cessation of neocolonial practices in the exploitation of the natural resources of developing countries by transnational corporations were becoming relevant again.

No matter how the fate of the UN, wto, IMF, World Bank, G20 and other associations of universal coverage (Russia has played and continues to play a constructive role in them) develops, the dividing policy of the West makes the formation of a new infrastructure of international relations in the political, economic, trade, monetary, financial, cultural and humanitarian spheres, as well as in the field of international security, an absolute imperative for the coming years. This infrastructure, as domestic experts correctly note, should, first of all, correspond to the real content of international politics[12]. Its main property, in addition to inclusiveness and voluntariness of participation, should be invulnerability to external dictates, independence from the whims of our Western colleagues. After their blatantly treacherous decisions and actions against Russia, its citizens and tangible assets, we simply cannot afford the luxury of not thinking about alternatives. Moreover, many of our friends, who have lost faith in Western benevolence and decency, think about the same thing. Actually, the efforts to create an independent circuit of global governance did not begin today – the successful development of BRICS is an example of this. However, now, without any doubt, this process will receive a powerful acceleration, including through the expansion of the SCO, increasing the effectiveness of the Non-Aligned Movement, the formation of the Group of Friends in defense of the UN Charter and other formats.

Reliance on national interests and international law presupposes the widespread introduction of ideas whose viability has been proven by time. Such as the concept of multipolarity based on cooperation in the "triangle" of Russia-China-India, proposed by E.M. Primakov back in the 90s. It is appropriate to recall that Yevgeny Maksimovich, long before the aggravation of relations with the West, advocated a significant increase in attention to the eastern and southern directions of Russian diplomacy. Russia is actively implementing this principled attitude, and the current cooling in relations with the West objectively frees up additional resources for its implementation.

New arguments are emerging in favour of making President Vladimir Putin's initiative to form a Greater Eurasian Partnership Russia's flagship foreign policy project. We see BEP as a framework open to all countries and associations of the continent in matters of economic integration and security. Its added value lies in the harmonious conjugation of integration projects, national development strategies, production and logistics chains and transport and energy corridors. It is through the prism of Greater Eurasia that the way can be paved for building a new model of Russia's relations with its European neighbors at the next historical stage, with an emphasis on the competitive advantages of such a partnership, which are natural for geographical and other reasons.

The healing separation from the West in many senses creates the conditions for more detailed cooperation with the global East and south also because it is there today that the largest number of our sincere like-minded people and friends are located, as shown by their thoughtful, balanced reaction to Russian actions to protect the residents of Donbass, a clearly expressed refusal to join the US-led anti-Russian coalition and sanctions. True, let us not forget that the SVO and everything related to it is by no means the main point of the national and foreign policy agendas of the non-Western world. From there, the events in and around Ukraine look completely different than the "picture" in the reports of biased Western and international media, where Russia is categorically portrayed as guilty of all sins and responsible for almost all world problems. Of course, the "sound" of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America as priority areas for the foreseeable future will be qualitatively strengthened in the updated Foreign Policy Concept of Russia.

* * *

The axiomatic formula that Russia can either be strong or it will not be is now clearly confirmed. Sanctions, military, information and political pressure, attempts to cut us off from global markets and technologies – all this is effective only to the extent that we are in an unfriendly coordinate system. The policy taken in recent years to strengthen national sovereignty has proved incompatible with Russia's participation in global processes on foreign terms or as a member of Western-centric structures (for example, the same Group of Eight, which Moscow irrevocably left in 2014). Sovereignization of all areas of life, including the ideological sphere, the political system, culture, science, economics, finance and others, with openness to the widest mutually enriching equal international cooperation, can guarantee the sustainable development of Russia and the worthy place of our country in the multipolar world order. Among other things, the course of things forces us to ensure the "nationalization" of the categories of our foreign policy philosophy, co-opted from the Western "school of thought". Are such ideological constructs as, for example, "soft power" and "public diplomacy" so applicable in the domestic context and practice, or is it still correct to talk about "cultural and humanitarian policy", as well as "information support of foreign policy"?

It's time for Russia to get back to itself. To realize oneself as the historical core of an original civilization, the largest Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power, one of the strongest geopolitical centers of the world.

A special military operation provides ample opportunities for such self-determination. Russians, Chechens, Avars, Tatars, Yakuts, Tuvans and representatives of other indigenous peoples as part of the multinational and multi-confessional Russian army oppose the formations of the Kiev puppet regime, which relied on flawed radical nationalism and reckless, humiliating obedience to foreign masters. Long-standing historical enemies , the Cossacks and chechens who liberated Lysychansk , call themselves brothers in arms, and the Chechen commander is awarded a Cossack cross. There's a lot to think about here. It comes to the surface that the choice in favor of interethnic unity and traditional values releases creative energy, and unnatural reliance on a falsified past and an illusory future cannot but lead to internal disorder and aggression against dissidents.

Of course, a return to oneself is impossible without a well-thought-out ideological mobilization of the state and society – this is also a necessary condition for an effective foreign policy after the withdrawal from all forms of dependence on the West. This is indicated by the appeal to the works of prominent Domestic scientists, who mentally anticipated the questions posed by the current historical stage. The identity of Russian civilization is defined as "a completely peculiar national state and cultural complex, equally clearly distinguished from both Europe and Asia," I.L. Solonevich wrote in 1951[13]. In 1993, V.L. Tsymbursky called our country a "special ethno-civilizational platform"[14]. The place of Europe as the extreme western tip of the Eurasian continent in 2003 was stated by A.A. Zinoviev: "The prosperous West, which is dreamed of in Russia, is only a small island in the ocean of dirt and suffering"[15].

History has chosen Russia as a force that, by its tenacity and consistency in the pursuit of truth and justice for all, will accelerate the transition to a new world order. Not only Russia's foreign policy positions, but also the stability of the entire system of international relations will depend on our ability to play a unifying role and create an inter-civilizational "network" of priority partners on the horizon of the next decade.


[1] Narochnitskaya, N. A.: Post-war world ended / N. A. Narochnitskaya/ — Text : electronic // Vzglyad : [site]. — URL: https://vz.ru/politics/2022/3/14/1148002.html. (date of access: 21.07.2022).

[2] Karaganov, S. A. Ot constructivenogo razuliya k sobranie / S. A. Karaganov. — Text : electronic // Russia in global politics : [site]. — URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/ot-razrusheniya-k-sobiraniyu/ (date of access: 2022.07.22).

[3] Trenin, D. V. Hybridity as the main feature of modern international conflicts / D. V. Trenin. — Text : electronic // Council on Foreign and Defense Policy : [site]. — URL: http://svop.ru/main/42490/ (date of access: 2022-07-28).

[4] Lukyanov, F. A. The rules ceased to apply at all / F. A. Lukyanov. — Text : electronic // Russian Council on International Affairs : [site]. — URL: https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/comments/pravila-perestali-deystvovat-sovsem/ (date of access: 2022-07-27).

[5] Meeting with the leadership of the State Duma and the heads of factions. — Text : electronic // President of Russia : [site]. — URL: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68836 (date of access: 2022-07-18).

[6] Speech and answers to questions from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at a meeting with students of the Republic of Belarus, Minsk, July 1, 2022. — Text : elektronnyi // MFA Rossii : [site]. — URL: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1820268/ (date of access: 2022-07-02).

[7] Khazin warned of the disintegration of the world. — Text : electronic // Rambler : [site]. — URL: https://finance.rambler.ru/economics/48981564-hazin-predupredil-o-raspade-mira/ (date of access: 2022-07-28).

[8] How Russian science will develop in the coming years. — Text : electronic // RBC : [site]. — URL: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/innovation/62b2d14a9a794711d698bfb4 (date of access: 2022-07-28).

[9] Narochnitskaya, N. A.: Post-war world ended / N. A. Narochnitskaya/ — Text : electronic // Vzglyad : [site]. — URL: https://vz.ru/politics/2022/3/14/1148002.html. (date of access: 21.07.2022).

[10] Karaganov, S. A. Against us the big West, which sooner or later will begin to crumble / S. A. Karaganov — Text : electronic // Rossiyskaya gazeta : [site]. — URL: https://rg.ru/2022/04/12/sergej-karaganov-protiv-nas-bolshoj-zapad-kotoryj-rano-ili-pozdno-nachnet-sypatsia.html (date of access: 2022-07-28).

[11] Trenin, D. V. Resolutely broke with the West / D. V. Trenin. — Text : electronic // Russian Council on International Affairs : [site]. — URL: https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/comments/reshitelno-porvala-s-zapadom/?sphrase_id=92662124. (date of access: 28.07.2022).

[12] Bordachev, T. V. UN – reform or abolition? / T. V. Bordachev. — Text : electronic // Russia in global politics : [site]. — URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/oon-reforma-ili-uprazdnenie/ (date of access: 2022-07-27).

[13] Solonevich I. L. Narodnaya monarchiya / Otv. ed. O. Platonov. — M.: Institut russkoi tsivilizatsii, 2010. C. 27.

[14] Tsymbursky V. L. Ostrov Rossiya / V. L. Tsymbursky. — Text: electronic // Intelros: [site]. — URL: http://www.intelros.ru/subject/figures/1072-vadim_cymburskijj_ostrov_rossija.html (date of access: 2022-07-28).

[15] Zinoviev A. A. I want to tell you about the West / A. A. Zinoviev. — Text: electronic // Zinoviev. Info: [website]. — URL: http://zinoviev.info/wps/archives/73 (date of access: 2022.07.28).

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 3 2022 20:47 utc | 163

I was surfing Twitter just now and found this Tweet:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Buttje1953/status/1554753054251323393

Portuguese-language daily Hoje Macau front-page slams 'provocateur' Pelosi over Taiwan trip

The same author also tweeted:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Buttje1953/status/1554751442212524032?cxt=HHwWgMDUseCMy5MrAAAA

Macau SAR govt 'condemns' Pelosi's Taiwan trip

At least among those in the government and media, what is the consensus in (formerly British) Hong Kong compared to that in (formerly Portuguese) Macau? Or are they similar?

Posted by: joey_n | Aug 3 2022 21:00 utc | 164

What do you think? Did Walorski suffer a fatal accident? Or did she get accidented? They way this went down she must have done something regarding ethical conduct (or lack thereof) to piss off some Very Imperious People. Looks like the Putin Chauffeur Model was used.

https://www.rt.com/news/560174-congresswoman-killed-car-crash/

Posted by: William Haught | Aug 3 2022 21:43 utc | 165

Below is a Xinhuanet posting quote that is hard to interpret but I think speaks to what they are doing about their housing bubble....please China folk correct my interpretation, thanks


FORESTALLING RISKS

Preventing and defusing financial risks has been high on the government's work agenda, and the country has managed to strike a balance between advancing financial development and reining in the related risks.

The PBOC has supported localities and supervisory departments in dealing with individual risk incidents and initiated the establishment of a fund to ensure financial stability.

Actions have been taken to support people's essential housing needs as well as their needs for better housing.

Disorderly expansion of major platform enterprises in the financial sector has been effectively curbed, according to the central bank.

In the second half of the year, the central bank will work to ensure steady financing channels for the real estate sector and accelerate the exploration of new development models in the sector.

It also urges the platform enterprises to address any problems they have, and fully leverage their role in creating jobs and promoting consumption.


I think
"
Actions have been taken to support people's essential housing needs as well as their needs for better housing.
"
means that China understands and supports (to some degree) the Western investment in property and trade up meme.

I think
"
Disorderly expansion of major platform enterprises in the financial sector has been effectively curbed, according to the central bank.
"
Means they are reining in the development/investment speculation excess

I think
"
In the second half of the year, the central bank will work to ensure steady financing channels for the real estate sector and accelerate the exploration of new development models in the sector.
"
Means continued push for more housing but done in various ways to limit speculative investment.

China does not profess to have a silver bullet approach but their focus on the issue and creativity of trying different models is impressive to me.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 4 2022 5:10 utc | 166

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