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No, Iran Will Not Deliver Armed Drones To Russia
In March this year we were treated to an onslaught of obviously false claims that China would deliver weapons to Russia for the fight in Ukraine.
Russia seeks military equipment and aid from China, U.S. officials say – Washington Post – March 13, 2022
Russia has turned to China for military equipment and aid in the weeks since it began its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.
The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, did not describe what kind of weaponry had been requested, or whether they know how China responded.
The development comes as White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan plans to travel to Rome on Monday to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi.
“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions, evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them,” Sullivan told CNN.
Russia is an exporter of military weapons and China is one of its biggest customers. There is nothing in the Chinese arsenals that Russia can not and does not produce itself.
The claim was false from the get go but Sullivan, the mediocre National Security Advisor of the Biden regime, planted it to put pressure on China. It of course did not work.
China denied that it had received any request from Russia or that it was in any way willing to ever fulfill one if it would come:
No Chinese weapons have been seen in Ukraine.
Now an equally stupid claim was launched by the very same liar who launched the fake Chinese weapons claim.
White House: Iran set to deliver armed drones to Russia – AP – Jul 7, 2022
The White House on Monday said it believes Russia is turning to Iran to provide it with “hundreds” of unmanned aerial vehicles, including weapons-capable drones, for use in its ongoing war in Ukraine.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said it was unclear whether Iran had already provided any of the unmanned systems to Russia, but said the U.S. has “information” that indicates Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use them as soon as this month.
“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” he told reporters Monday.
Russia has for some time build mass production facilities for its own drones.
A decade ago, the Russian Armed Forces possessed fewer than 200 UAVs, and now this figure stands at over 2000, and each year is replenished by 300. Furthermore, the Russian defence industry is conducting R&D on the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in UAVs, with the ambition of enabling them to perform as unified “swarms of drones” in combat zones. Sources claim that this was already tested in 2020, during the Kavkaz-2020 military exercise.
Russia has absolutely no need to buy drones from Iran. Besides that it is dubious that Iran would be able to deliver some and certainly not 'several hundreds'.
Gregg Carlstrom – @glcarlstrom – 6:18 UTC · Jul 12, 2022
Does Iran even have "hundreds of weapons-capable drones" to export? It has limited production capacity; would be surprising (to say the least) if it could churn out hundreds, let alone hundreds of useful weapons systems rather than worthless tchotchkes.
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman – 23:14 UTC · Jul 11, 2022
1. @jakejsullivan's claim that Iran is set to send "several hundred" drones to Russia doesn't make sense. Data is spotty, but it's unlikely Iran even has that many operational drones in its own fleet. It also has no experience exporting drones at scale.
2. The Defense Intelligence Agency's 2019 report on Iranian Military Power does not assess that Iran has the ability to mass produce and export drones. Hard to believe things have changed dramatically in three years.
3. From the report: "Despite advances in its UAV manufacturing capabilities, Iran remains reliant on Western manufactured engines and components to support its UAV production. Iran is developing a domestic UAV engine but is struggling with quality issues."
4. @RUSI_org's database seems to suggest that Iran has 50 operational drones in its fleet (cc @Justin_Br0nk). Also most of Iran's drones are rudimentary. These are not Bayraktars and would be of little value.
Perhaps someone can check the Jane's estimate.
5. Last year, @bellingcat reviewed satellite images and video footage "showing over 154 drones." But there's widespread agreement among analysts that these displays of air power probably include drones that are not fully armed or operational.
6. Sullivan's statement is also odd because he says that it is "unclear" whether Iran has already exported any drones. He was weirdly responding to a broader question about Russian capabilities. This export might happen, but I'll believe it when I see it.
7. The only explanation I can think of is that Sullivan believes Iran’s new drone JV in Tajikistan is primarily intended to supply Russia. But I am doubtful production can ramp up that quickly. Plus can’t the US just lean on Dushanbe if concerned?
The Washington Post notes the weird timing of Sullivan's claims thereby hinting that it was made for purely political purposes which have nothing to do with Russia:
The revelation comes as President Biden prepares to depart for the Middle East, where he is expected to confer with key allies on a unified regional policy toward Iran. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have been further strained in recent weeks, amid faltering nuclear talks and an uptick in rocket and drone attacks on U.S. military installations in the Middle East, conducted by militia groups armed and funded by Iran.
The whole issues is just a talking point designed to put Iran and Russia into the same 'baddies' binder for Biden's talks in the Middle East. The countries there may not like Iran but they will certainly not allow for a condemnation of Russia. The whole idea is, as many others Sullivan had, stupid to begin with.
So no, there will not be any Iranian drones going to Russia or fly over Ukraine.
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (12.07.2022)
In the area of the settlement of Berezan, Odessa region, high-precision ground-based Iskander missiles destroyed launchers of the Harpoon anti-ship missile system (Harpoon) manufactured by the United States.
As a result of a strike by high-precision air-launched missiles in the area of the settlement of Artemovsk of the Donetsk People’s Republic, 180 servicemen and 26 units of military equipment of the 30th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.
In addition, high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed: manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 12 districts, four ammunition depots of the 79th airborne assault brigade in the Matveevka area of the Mykolaiv region, as well as a repair and restoration point of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Seversk area.
As part of the counter-battery struggle, two platoons of Grad multiple launch rocket systems and two artillery platoons of Hyacinth-B howitzers were destroyed at firing positions in the Dzerzhinsk area of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery hit during the day: three control points, three ammunition depots, artillery units in firing positions in 97 districts, as well as manpower and military equipment in 111 districts.
Seven Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by Russian air defense means during the day in the areas of the settlements of Izium, Small Passages, Nursery of the Kharkiv region, Slavyansk, Shandrigolovo of the Donetsk People’s Republic, including one strike unmanned aerial vehicle near the city of Nikolaev.
In addition, 12 shells of the Hurricane multiple launch rocket system were intercepted in the areas of the settlements of Lisichansk of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Brazhkovka of the Kharkiv region and Novaya Kakhovka of the Kherson region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 243 aircraft, 137 helicopters, 1,513 unmanned aerial vehicles, 354 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,046 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 741 multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles, 3,135 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 4,165 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
The Russian Defense Ministry tracks and records by name all foreign mercenaries who have arrived in Ukraine to participate in hostilities.
As we have already noted, contrary to the false statements of representatives of the Kiev regime about the alleged twenty thousand foreign mercenaries who arrived on the territory of Ukraine, their real number is an order of magnitude smaller. Moreover, it is steadily declining.
So, over the past three weeks, as a result of the offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces and units of the People’s militia of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, the number of mercenaries in Ukraine has decreased from three thousand two hundred and twenty-one people to two thousand seven hundred and forty-one.
During this time, despite the arrival of another 151 mercenaries, 391 militants were destroyed. Another 240 “wild geese” hastened to retreat outside the territory of Ukraine.
The palm of the championship in terms of the speed and number of militants’ losses over the past period belongs again to representatives of Poland – 166 Polish militants have been liquidated. Among the representatives of Georgia, 50 “soldiers of fortune” were destroyed, the UK lost 23 more mercenaries killed in Ukraine. Also, 21 Romanian and 15 Canadian militants were killed in three weeks.
Updated data on the number of foreign mercenaries currently in Ukraine are presented on the information resources of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the Internet. I would like to emphasize that the Russian Armed Forces are identifying foreign mercenaries at the stage of their preparation for entry into Ukraine.
Here is one example. On July 6, two British citizens, Colin Scott and Adrian Davis, as well as three US citizens, Michael Vujkovic, Andrew Fox and Oliver Short, arrived at the collection and placement point for foreign mercenaries located in the Polish city of Zamosc on Kozmyan Street, house 1. We recommend these citizens to come to their senses and return home alive.
Let me remind you that in accordance with International humanitarian law, foreign mercenaries are not combatants and the best that awaits them in case of capture alive is a trial and maximum prison terms.
Posted by: noname | Jul 12 2022 10:18 utc | 8
@haafril | Jul 12 2022 10:06 utc | 7
«During the three months following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, at least 23 Iranian cargo aircraft have landed at airports around Moscow, Russia.»
The photos show civilian cargo airplanes, and this happens in the same period of sanctions when Western brands got out of Russia. Iran is already an expert in circumventing sanctions, and has good relations with Russia. These planes are obviously comercial, with some Iranian products trying to replace the void left by some Western brands. China did the same, as well as India, Turkey, and others, and obviously many Russian companies also grabbed the opportunity.
So, those 23 cargo aircraft are probably just a small sample, because many others are also coming from non-enemy countries. And many more products arrive on train and trucks, for all economic areas. That’s also part of the higher integration in EAEU and SCO. Russia sells more oil/gas to them and they also sell more stuff to Russia. And I’m glad to see it’s working, because I’m 100% anti-sanctions. Sanctions are the devils tool to provoke poverty and famine. So it’s easy to see how they became the main tool of Western Satan (USA) and his minions/vassals (Europe + Canada + the 4 idiots in the Pacific).
I remember listening an idiot in Portuguese TV saying that Russia, by the 3rd month of “crippling sanctions”, would no longer have functioning airplanes, because it wouldn’t have spare parts to repair the long range Boeings and Airbus, and Russia “has no Russian long range planes nor factories to produce long range planes spare parts”. The “journalist” presented the guy as an “expert”. So, yeah, this is Western TV, and the Portuguese “journalists” make guys at CNN and Fox News look like honest professionals… An “expert” that doesn’t know about the existence of ways to go around the sanctions, and doesn’t know about Russian aircraft industry. Maybe these “experts” think Su and Mi are just funny Chinese surnames, or that Kamov, Tupolev, Antonov, and Ilyushin are just funny Russian surnames…
As for the drones used in this war, we’ve seen an interesting development during just 4 months, with newer tactics and an actual test to the technologies available. Who would know that a cheap civilian drone with a grenade attached to it could be more effective than a huge military Bayraktar TB2? Or that USA big drones are so bad that USA doesn’t even want to send them to Ukraine, afraid that the bad publicity could hinder the profits of the Military Industrial Complex oligarchy. Ahahah, I laughed really hard at that one.
That being said, even if Russia has all the tech, know-how, and production capacity to be not only self-sustainable during a full conflict and also be an exporter, that doesn’t make it impossible that some drones (or other tech) from Iran and China has already been tested in a real war environment in Ukraine. After all, what are those SCO military joint exercises all about? Isn’t it about joining forces, specially from Russia, China, and Iran, in a war situation, sharing know-how and tech and improving their soldiers, mechanics and engineers cooperation?
Someone said the “proof” that isn’t happening is that no Chinese/Iranian tech was caught in Ukraine. Well, how can an army that spent the last month making “successful tactical backing movements to better defending positions” be able to grab anything? They even left their armored vehicles, heavier guns and ammo in Severodonetsk because they were in such a hurry to make a “victory swim” in the Seversky Donets river…
This reminds me that, if/when Russia reaches Zaporoje and Dnipropetrovsk, the Dnepr river is so much larger than the Siversky Donets, that Ukraine better start conscripting Olympic swimmers.
Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 12 2022 11:18 utc | 19
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