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Lysichansk Is Under Control Of The Russian Side
Lysichansk is now under control of the Russian side of the war.
This was reported by a Russian speaking journalist from the Lysichansk City Park (map) which is at the center of the city. There are a few locals around him who seem to be happy. There is no background noise of shooting or artillery fire or impacts in his report.
The Lugansk People’s Republic now has the entire territory of the Lugansk oblast under its control.
This comes only a week after the cauldron around Lysichansk began to close. Until a few hours ago there was still a chance to flee from Lysichansk but the only passable road was under Russian fire. It is not know yet how many made it out or how many gave up and were taken prisoners.
Some of those who retreated went to Siversk some 20 kilometer west of Lysichansk. That city will be the next bigger target in that campaign sector.
The speed of this operation was much faster than the one in Mariupol. That points to diminished capabilities and soldier motivation of the Ukrainian forces.
The now much shortened frontline frees up several battalion tactical groups on the Russian side which can now be refitted and rested to then move elsewhere.
134 Cont’d–
As I said, Putin moves into Geopolitics to provide context for the important job these intelligence officers perform. I advise barflies to stop and read what Putin says because you haven’t read these words before:
And today, work in your direction is one of the most responsible, and the requirements placed on employees are extremely high.
The world situation remains complex and very dynamic. We have to solve non-standard tasks with many unknowns, to respond to challenges in which the uncertainty factor is great.
In this situation, the priority for the SVR and our other special services is the strategic forecasting of international processes. And such an analysis should be realistic, objective, based on reliable information and the widest range of reliable sources.
You can’t, as they say, give out wishful thinking. By the way, the so-called collective West has largely fallen into such a trap and in its actions proceeds from the fact that there is no alternative to their model of liberal globalism. And this model – let’s call a spade a spade – is still the same updated edition of neocolonialism, nothing else, an American world, a world for a select few, in which the rights of everyone else are simply trampled upon.
A clear confirmation of this is the fate of many countries and peoples of the Middle East, other regions of the world, and today – millions of people in Ukraine, whom the West simply cynically uses as expendable material in geopolitical games, in its attempts to “contain” Russia. By the way, what does “contain” mean? Simply prevent us from developing at the pace we need and on the basis of traditional values that we need. That’s what “deterrence” is all about. What kind of deterrence is this? It’s just a fight against Russia.
At the same time, the West is trying to ignore an inconvenient reality for itself – the formation of a multipolar world order. Of course, they cannot completely ignore these objective trends. But in their practical policy, they are guided by one goal – to maintain their dominance by any means.
Such dogmatism, the weight of the past, the unwillingness to face the truth inevitably increases the risk of further ill-considered, impulsive actions on the part of the West. But at the same time, this situation opens up opportunities for Russia and our like-minded people in the world – and you know that we have a lot of such like-minded people. Some are afraid, however, to raise their heads and say it out loud, but they think with us in approximately the same way, they think like us, in fact. There are many of them, these like-minded people, countries and people, peoples who want to follow their own path, based on the principles of genuine multilateralism.
Of course, a separate conversation is needed about such a model, about our vision of the future, about an agenda that would unite, not divide, humanity. And in the future, I think it is important, of course, to specifically devote one of my public speeches or some other format to this subject.
Today I want to emphasize that, in my opinion, the main thing is multipolarity. I want to emphasize that multipolarity in our understanding is, first of all, freedom. The freedom of countries and peoples, their natural right to their path of development, to preserve their identity and uniqueness. In such a model of the world order, there can be no place for dictate, templates imposed by someone, ideas of the exclusivity of individual countries or even some blocks.
I repeat: now, against the background of fundamental transformations in the world, it is important to see the overall picture of what is happening, to act proactively on this basis. And here a lot depends, of course, on you, on your work, on its quality. First of all, of course, this concerns the sphere of national security, timely receipt of information on the military and geostrategic plans of individual states and their associations that pose or may pose a direct threat to our country.
The situation in the global economy and the financial sector should be under constant attention. It is important to study the conjuncture and the main trends in the global markets, to calculate the possible consequences of those steps and decisions that affect the interests of Russia and domestic business, our integration and international projects.
As before, one of the priorities of the Foreign Intelligence Service is to assist in the industrial and technological development of our country, in strengthening its defense potential. This direction is always relevant, especially now against the background of attempts to exert sanctions pressure on Russia. By the way, and we all know this well, the Soviet Union, and even before the Soviet Union, constantly lived under these sanctions. One way or another, they always tried to restrain us.
Countering international terrorism remains among the key issues. This includes information support for Russian units stationed in Syria, the identification of ways to supply weapons and money to militants, the location of their bases, command posts and training centers.
We must not weaken our attention to the security of Russian citizens abroad, including in the Americas, in Western countries as a whole, in the Middle East and Africa. In this regard, I would like to note that in recent years the Foreign Intelligence Service has seriously strengthened its operational, information and analytical capabilities. The personnel potential of the department has grown significantly. And I am sure that you will do everything necessary to adequately fulfill all the tasks set. Like your legendary predecessors, you will work clearly, effectively and with honor to serve Russia and our people.
Once again, I congratulate you on your anniversary. I wish you, your loved ones all the best, good health and professional success. [My Emphasis]
I’m certain that all us barflies want to hear that “separate conversation” and before Winter arrives. I would also suspect that many of us barflies are of the sort that Putin spoke about, that we are “like minded” when it comes to the struggle Russia is waging, not just in Ukraine but globally.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 2 2022 22:47 utc | 137
Posted by: Malik | Jul 2 2022 22:44 utc | 137
“Andrei pisses some people off because he’s enjoying the schadenfreude of it all and rightly so. He’s reveling I think with decorum, I told you dummies this for years part of it. He got under Scott Ritter’s skin for his braggadocio. I love it all it, the give and take of intellectual battles beat artillery fire.”
Correct.
Just to piss off that moron Ostro some more, here is Andrei from today. SUCK ON IT, OSTRO!
Ah, Olaf Scholz Got The Message.
Do I feel smug at this moment? Come on, I am just human with all my human flaws, can I allow myself at least a brief moment of feeling good about myself and what I do?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Russian President Vladimir Putin prepared for his war on Ukraine for at least a year before inciting it, and predicted Putin is likely to be able to maintain a drawn-out offensive for a “long time.” Scholz made the comments in a Thursday interview with CBS News “Face the Nation” moderator and chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan at the NATO summit in Madrid. The war on Ukraine has now dragged on for more than four months, and Russia is using its firepower to make incremental gains. US intelligence estimates that Russia currently holds about 20% of the country, mostly in eastern Ukraine. “When will Russia no longer have the ability to continue this fight? When will Putin run out of weapons, run out of funds? Or can this continue for years,” Brennan asked Scholz.
No one really knows, Scholz replied, but Putin’s lengthy planning suggests he’s prepared for a sustained war effort. “He has — he is perhaps the leader of a very great country with a lot of people living there, with a lot of means, and he is really doing this brutal war with — and he prepared for it [for] very long,” Scholz said. “I think the decision to- to do this war was taken one year before it started or possibly earlier because he prepared for it. And so, he will be able to continue with the war really a long time.”
Let me clarify some things here.
1. Olaf Scholz cannot be viewed as a good source of expertise on anything related to warfare, real economy and, especially so, in relation to Russia. He simply has zero qualifications, even when one considers his present post as Germany’s Chancellor. What he gets are some reports from a few remaining real professionals in BND and Bundeswehr who told him, I am sure, from the get go, about REAL situation. As the unlucky fate of some Germany’s top brass testifies, such as Admiral Shonbach’s forced resignation, Scholz was getting more or less reliable forecasting from the very start of SMO. But…
2. Western “elites” are simply incapable to hear “bad news” on anything because most of them are petulant children with the maturity level of high schools teenagers. Enough to take a look at the “levels” of the US State Department or other people from Biden Admin who pretend to run the country. As the result of all that, once the stream of, mostly fake, “news” (a euphemism for propaganda) from Ukraine dried up, reality, including the most important one–on operational and strategic level–began to bite. It hurts, I know.
But recall, that from the inception I warned about a complete delusion about Russia exercised in the West even by people who are supposed to know. Even deeply respected by me as a true, who he is undoubtedly, military professional and, most importantly, thinker is not free from some obvious misconceptions about Russia. Such as Early Warning ABM capabilities. But combined West miscalculated in the most important aspect of Russia–her massive real economic capability which, in turn, drives Russia’s huge mobilization, both economic and military, potential. Only now this “message” begins to trickle UP in both Europe and even Washington D.C. I warned about the dangers of this miscalculations since the very inception of this blog and, of course, in here: [PICTURE OF HIS BOOK “Losing Military Supremacy”]
It is worth mentioning, that ANY, I repeat it, any intelligence or military institution in the West is not up to the task of understanding Russia’s mobilization potential, which the last 4 months demonstrated perfectly. The FUBAR with delusional thinking regarding West’s weapons’ deliveries to Ukraine and fantastical thinking of civilian leadership of the West combined with crude and unprofessional propaganda from the US military “experts” demonstrate perfectly how incompetent they are. In the end, I warned, that using the framework of Western “economism” in application to Russia is an exercise in futility, because the same framework doesn’t work on West’s economy at large either.
Beaten to death cliche ascribed to many people ranging from Churchill to Metternich that “Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks” is just that–a cliche. In reality, it is just that the West was never really good at understanding of military and economic potential translating into the kinetic action. Let’s face it–ALL, without exception, people in the decision making circles in the US know little about the world outside and especially so about Russia–it is a systemic illness of the US body politic as a whole and it is extremely dangerous. I will repeat, again, Russia study filled in the combined West and, especially in the US is an academic fraud, populated by pseudo-“academic” shysters with soft Ph.Ds and Russia “expert” community is laughable because of its sheer incompetence, based in low intellectual level.
But, if even Olaf Scholz begins to if not see (I doubt he is that smart) to, at least, articulate some realities which really matter, then it shows a very carefully hidden from the brainwashed Western public, some major tectonic shifts at least in Europe. Europeans, I know some, are waking up to the reality that the US, namely its neocon mafia in charge of the US foreign policy, would like to see Europe burn in continental war against Russia, while the US will seat it out and then, as in WW II, will come in to claim its spoils. Neocons are one trick ponies and utterly militarily incompetent people, but even such a door mat and America’s slap bitch as Scholz begins to recognize that it may end really bad for him personally (that’s the main concern) and for the country which he and his government so passionately want to finish off as a nation. So, something is afoot and Scholz suddenly beginning to speak as a man who finally had his two-hour briefing on introductory level geopolitics–you know, geography, industries, military and shit like that–is a good indicator of this. So, in this case, it is a positive development.
In related news, a neocon rag laments:
Ukraine’s forces have received less training over the recent weeks, which impacts their capacity to operate some advanced weapons systems, magazine Foreign Policy (FP) reported on Friday, citing sources. Since the launch of Russia’s military offensive in the neighboring country in late February, Ukraine has been constantly asking its Western partners to provide them with more heavy weapons and to do so as quickly as possible. However, as a senior US defense official told FP, “the drumbeat of faster, faster, faster” does not always work well because “the Ukrainians needed to have the training to be able to effectively use these systems.” Meanwhile, the Ukrainian officials cited by the FP, complained on the one hand about the “too slow” pace of Western aid but, on the other hand, admitted that “beyond training for the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) and Western artillery, military training for their troops has dipped in recent weeks, leaving them unable to operate more advanced systems.”
Well, no shit geniuses. Main explanation (among few others) is the fact that VSU losses are catastrophic and most capable and smartest have been simply killed. It is a Volkssturm phase for 404, and it is accelerating as I type this. But you see, if those who matter would have been learning in their respective programs something of value and really tried, they wouldn’t have to deal with this severe cognitive dissonance and they would have chosen a much more constructive and realistic approach to Russia and we all wouldn’t be witnessing what we witness today, not to mention listening (reading) to old fool Kissinger’s definitions of victory or loss for Russia. How this artifact is still around and is taken seriously by anyone is a complete mystery to me, but then again–at this stage the West needs to “arrange” face saving measures and not get involved with nuclear exchange with Russia as many neocons want.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 2 2022 23:15 utc | 149
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jul 2 2022 22:24 utc | 135
“We all here at the bar are of course ready to give Russia all the benefit of the doubt, when it comes to pushing back against the MSM natrative that Russia is the aggressor, because we have been following this powder keg since 2014.
Yet you refuse to entertain the notion that either the Soviets were going to invade Europe and/or what Scorpion presented recently, the transcript of Stalin’s addressing the politburo and making it known that the Soviets will strike when Europe was weak with in-fighting.
Seems entirely plausible to me, especially if you do understand that Stalin was a fox and that the Soviets did master the ruse during the war.
…
Happily I sit, however, knowing that the actions of Russia are not those of Soviet Revanchists but Christians who want to deliver the world from the grip of the globalists.”
First, in an earlier cycle in this life I gave myself entirely to a cause and a community; the latter took some wrong turns inadvertently and it took years for me to face that I/we had turned into something we never wanted and it was very hard to leave and move on. This happens to many of us in different ways including with businesses, relationships, families, political movements, religious groups and so on. So I feel for anyone who is deeply loyal to a cause and know that since all human groups end up disappointing in this vale of tears we call ‘reality,’ they are no doubt struggling between the painful gap between the ideal visualized and the gritty reality experienced. But I still also respect the impulse to embrace, master and serve a cause. It is a noble thing – or can be.
As to the subject matter of the post, one thing that rings alarms for me when someone whitewashes their own team and blackwashes the opponent’s team is that this perpetuates conflict without nuance which never ends well. It is a way of stripping your enemy of all honor which in turn dishonors yourself and your cause.
After WWII honor was not restored, indeed it was shredded to and by all sides, victors and defeated. The fruit of this mutual dishonoring is ripening now seventy five years later.
I have this strange, tentative hope that even though I do not regard either Putin or Russia as world savior angels that because of the roller coaster of a century they just passaged through with the overthrow and murder of the 300 year Romanov monarchy, then the various challenging phases of Bolshevik and then other strains of communism, some of which phases were extraordinarily bloody, and then the gradual shift from communism to the newly reconstructed Russian Federation today under an extremely capable leader who seems to have greatly strengthened and sculpted a full, constitutional and modern state with both private and public sectors, religious faith, tolerance, dynamism, humor, collective solidarity, pride in its people and heritage and so forth, well I hope that they have the necessary suffering and wisdom to actually chart a different course than other large nations and Empires in known history. A truly different course.
And not because they are angels but because they have been through hell and want to ensure they never go through it again, nor, importantly, do they wish it on others. They do not run on the fumes of hate; they are not frivolous or nervous; they are both disciplined, reserved and human. They manifest as an excellent conservative, Christian state. How this has transpired after their last century’s history is, to me, a kind of miracle.
Miracles are always good. So am hopeful – despite still being a little cynical by reflex perhaps – that something truly different and better is going down.
But as many here have remarked, at some point the people are going to have to step up and show the way.
I suspect this will be Phase Three in Ukraine btw. After the Donbass is secured, the main push in Ukraine will be political versus military, appeals to various populations to conduct referenda and determine their futures with RF troops acting to ensure there is no foul play. In this way RF will show that they truly walk their talk and wish to build a better world this time around.
Well, I was always a sappy romantic and guess still am. But again: painting your own side as angels and your enemy as demons is a bad road to follow. A bad road.
Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 3 2022 2:36 utc | 185
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