Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 20, 2022

Lavrov - Extended Range Weapons In Ukraine Will Lead To More Loss Of Its Land

Today the foreign minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov, announced the extension of the land in Ukraine that Russia intends to capture.

It will depend on the maximum weapon range of the systems the Ukraine will have under its control.

Via RIA Novosti (machine translation):

Lavrov: deliveries of long-range weapons to Kyiv will expand the geography of the special operation

MOSCOW, July 20 - RIA Novosti. If Ukraine receives long-range weapons from Western countries, then the geographical tasks of the special operation of the Russian troops will change, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT and the Rossiya Segodnya media group.

"The President said very clearly, as you quoted him - denazification, demilitarization in the sense that there are no threats to our security, military threats from the territory of Ukraine, this task remains," the minister stressed.

At the same time, he recalled that during the meeting of the negotiators in Istanbul at the end of March, the situation on this issue was significantly different.

"Now the geography is different. It is far from being only the DPR and LPR, it is also the Kherson region, the Zaporozhye region and a number of other territories, and this process continues, and continues consistently and persistently," the head of Russian diplomacy added.

He pointed out that as the West, in impotent rage or in a desire to make the situation as bad as possible, pumps more and more long-range weapons into Ukraine, for example, HIMARS, the geographical objectives of the special operation will move even further from the current line.

“Because we cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Zelensky will control or whoever replaces him to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the territory of those republics that have declared their independence, those who want their future decide for yourself," he concluded.

Note to Washington: If you deliver HIMARS missile to Ukraine with an extended (300km instead of 80km) range, Russia will have to move further into Ukraine to secure its own and the Donbas republics borders.

This comes after calls in Ukraine to hit the bridge over the Kerch street that connects Crimea with Russia with extended range HIMARS missiles. The nearest point of the area which the Ukraine still holds is some 260 kilometer away from the bridge.


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There are also rumors that the Ukraine has already received such missiles. Via Naked Capitalism:

Zelensky Orders Troops to Hold Siversk Despite Heavy Losses, Purges More Officials; Putin in Tehran - Alexander Mercouris.

Note in particular starting at 10:10, Mercouris reports that DPR official Eduard Barsurin has stated that Ukraine has received the 300 km missiles for the HIMARS. Ukraine has made clear it intends to hit targets in Crimea, which Russia regards as Russian territory, particularly the Kerch bridge. Mercouris thinks it would take an awful lot of missiles to do that, as in more than Ukraine has now, but any strikes at Crimea would lead to very forceful retaliation by Russia. Ukraine is smoking something strong if it thinks that will lead the West to do meaningfully more for Ukraine than it is doing now.

Mercouris is wrong when he claims that the long range HIMARS missile would only have a small warhead as it must be fired out of one of the 6 tubes of the regular HIMARS canister. The long range missile is the ATACMS. It comes in a different canister which has only one tube for a missile with a diameter of 610 mm. It can be fired by all systems that usually fire the 6 missile canister.


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The version of the MFM-140 ATACMS missile that would most likely be used is the M57 (ATACMS TACMS 2000):

It carries the 500 lb WDU-18/B penetrating high explosive blast fragmentation warhead of the US Navy's Harpoon anti-ship missile, which was redesignated as WAU-23/B when used in ATACMS.

It is not the ideal warhead to attack a hard target but it is significant enough to at least heavily damage the Kerch bridge.

If it should be used Ukraine will lose all land that is within 300 kilometer of Crimea, the Donbas and Luhansk oblasts and Ukraine's northern border with Russia. Odessa is only 180 kilometer from Crimea and Kiev some 200 kilometer from the nearest Russian border. If we take Lavrov's words seriously those cities would come under Russian occupation should an extended range HIMARS missile be used.

Lavrov named several Ukrainian oblasts that are already on Russia's wish list:

It is far from being only the DPR and LPR, it is also the Kherson region, the Zaporozhye region and a number of other territories, ..

The number of other territories will have to include the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts to protect the border of Donetsk and Luhansk from longer reaching weapons. Mykolaiv and Odessa may have to be taken to protect Russia's oil and gas installations west of Crimea. The Ukraine has already attacked those with longer range weapons.


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If I were a Ukrainian decision maker I would take Lavrov's threat very seriously.

The longest reaching weapon that the U.S. and Great Britain have delivered to Ukraine so far is the Harpoon anti ship missile with a range of 124 kilometer which is near to the 120 kilometer range that Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles have. The Russian defense ministry had previously claimed that at least two Harpoon launchers had been destroyed. According to its daily report another one was eliminated yesterday near Usatovo in the Odessa Region.

Posted by b on July 20, 2022 at 13:18 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Much confusion about Nord Stream 1. Reuters said Russia said it would be opening it tomorrow but Ursula vd Leyen said it would not. Is this Russian trolling or does the EU really want to punish its fossile-loving citizens by denying them Russian energy? Why is energy such a big deal in the first place. At one point one even had to argue there is not enough of it (non-renewable etc)? Now it is almost political dogma to provide as little as possible regardless of how much there is left.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 18:29 utc | 101

@ Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 18:29 utc | 104

I think it is simply Russia making coldly rational assessment that their performance to contract may depend on counter-partys actions. So if there are any technical impediments, Europe can expect it will not receive delivery.

Leaders actions have consequences.

Common sense, really.

Posted by: jared | Jul 20 2022 18:38 utc | 102

Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 15:01 utc | 37

You've been outed - why not just give up?

Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Jul 20 2022 18:41 utc | 103

It seems to me that the obvious and primay reason for meeting of Russia, Turkey and Iran would be the Syria situation - not conflict in Ukraine.

That and some new, new world order type discussions.

Posted by: jared | Jul 20 2022 18:41 utc | 104

@RB I think the Iraq War was an evil catastrophe and that's one of the reasons I oppose Russia's invasion - we see the same inevitable devastation for civilians, the same bogus claims of WMD programs and what Bush termed "preventative war", really just a gloss over a desire to remake a region for the strategic interests of the aggressor. I don't think the US or Russia should have gotten involved in Syria, although I think Assad's government prosecuted the war in an absolutely sickening way. I was disgusted by the US torture regime of "enhanced interrogation", Abu Ghraibh etc and what Syria has done, including to **children** in its prisons is as hellish as it gets.

I am basically ok with the fight against Isis, especially where multilateral engagements were in support of the legitimate government of country where those actions took place. Fuck Isis.

Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 18:42 utc | 105

OT--FYI--OT--

China has launched a media/news contest, "Judging Committee Meeting of the First Silk Road Global News Awards held in Beijing":

The judging meeting of the First Silk Road Global News Awards was held in Beijing on Wednesday. During the meeting, the evaluation results of the first Silk Road Global News Awards were reviewed and confirmed.

Fang Jiangshan, deputy editor-in-chief of People's Daily, served as director of the judging committee which consists of 21 members from various countries. Fang chaired the judging committee on Wednesday, with judging committee members joining both online and offline.

At the judging meeting, the Secretariat of the Belt and Road News Network (BRNN) presented the results of the reevaluation through online voting. The judging members shared their opinions and made joint decision to shortlist 19 works including "Kazakhstan Belt and Road Initiative: The road to somewhere" for the first Silk Road Global News Awards. Mushahid Hussain Syed, chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute and head of Pakistan's "Friends of Silk Road" club, was listed as a finalist for the Special Contribution Award of the first Silk Road Global News Awards.

Fang pointed out during the judging meeting that media is a significant force in guiding public opinion, enhancing people-to-people ties between countries and regions and better telling stories of cooperation under the BRI.

The Silk Road Global News Awards, with the principle of promoting peaceful cooperation, openness, inclusiveness, mutual learning and win-win cooperation, honor media colleagues and people from all walks of life who recognize, spread and interpret the cooperation concept and practice of jointly building the BRI. The awards aim to build on a consensus between everyone who attaches great importance to the development and joint cooperation to boost the great practice of building a community with a shared future for mankind, Fang said.

Barflies "from countries and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative" can enter next year's event, which IMO is a great opportunity as we do have some excellent writers living in the appropriate places.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 18:43 utc | 106

@Jams O'Donnell do you have any idea how many Ameros they pay me to post here?

Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 18:44 utc | 107

yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 18:42 utc | 108

"the same bogus claims of WMD programs..."

The empire's bioweapons program on Ukraine soil is already abundantly documented and the Russians have only begun their investigation. Meanwhile Zelensky himself said the Ukraine would build its own nuclear arsenal, to general acclaim from his Western audience.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jul 20 2022 18:48 utc | 108

Prescient people there, Yenwoda. For the past 5 or 6 years they have preemptively been angry at Russia for dropping cluster bombs into their houses for the last 3 months? Wow, that's impressive.
If they can see into the future why don't they buy lottery tickets instead of spewing hatred at Russians?

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 20 2022 18:49 utc | 109

Posted by: WTFUD | Jul 20 2022 13:40 utc | 3

“Let's face it, the only regime change required is North America & EU(+UK).“


Regime change itself won’t make much of a difference unless the system that produced it is changed at a fundamental level. A system’s main raison d’être is to keep reproducing itself. So swapping out individual members and hoping new, more conscientious replacements fix the system from the inside never works. Corbyn and Sanders brief moment and subsequent crash into oblivion are a perfect example of this.

Global finance capitalism is the culprit and that is what needs to be overcome. Nobody in the west is prepared to face this fact honestly. Instead we get outlandish conspiracy theories and ‘change the system form the inside’ fantasies from the ‘alternative’ left and the right while the decrepit system marches on.

Until a genuine alternative to capitalism is implemented it will continue to get evermore dysfunctional and authoritarian and wars, hot and hybrid, and scapegoating “foreign” powers will increase.

Posted by: darren price | Jul 20 2022 18:52 utc | 110

OT--FYI--OT--

"Kissinger warns Biden on China ties amid Washington's enhanced provocations against Beijing; consequences would be 'fatal, unbearable' for Biden:

"In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, 99-year-old Kissinger said geopolitics today requires 'Nixonian flexibility' to help defuse conflicts between the US and China as well as between Russia and the rest of Europe, and Biden should be wary of letting domestic politics interfere with 'the importance of understanding the permanence of China.'"

The old man believes Biden is making a crucial mistake. Although it doesn't provide much of the interview, here's the Bloomberg item.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 18:59 utc | 111

Mr. Sergei Lavrov the Tai Chi Master in action:

"He pointed out that as the West, in impotent rage or in a desire to make the situation as bad as possible, pumps more and more long-range weapons into Ukraine, for example, HIMARS, the geographical objectives of the special operation will move even further from the current line.

“Because we cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Zelensky will control or whoever replaces him to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the territory of those republics that have declared their independence, those who want their future decide for yourself," he concluded.

Here's hoping the dumb Americans send more HIMARS ones with greater range than 300 km! Pretty soon all of Ukraine will be Russia's as it should be, historically and geopolitically.

Posted by: Sam Smith | Jul 20 2022 19:01 utc | 112

When you visit this article, do spend a moment looking at the photo of the neocon witch uttering these words:

"'Make no mistake, space is a warfighting domain today, and an ever increasingly contested one at that,' Haines, who as DNI oversees the US’ 17 intelligence agencies, said at the stand-up ceremony for the NSIC at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio."

For the sake of global security and humanity's wellbeing, the Outlaw US Empire must completely die such that it totally loses its war promoting abilities. There can be no ifs, ands or buts about that requirement.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 19:10 utc | 113

Posted by: RB | Jul 20 2022 18:26 utc | 103

Not feed troll please.

Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Jul 20 2022 19:11 utc | 114

If they start using more upgraded HiMARS - start hitting Kiev. Intel Slava Z on Telegram had a video they just posted of Russian troops using a Kornet against a position. That is an amazing ATGM.

Intel Slava Z also has pics and info about more dead mercenaries. They must be paying these losers good money. Only homicidal maniacs, mega losers and creeps would "volunteer." Odd how all the British ones who get captured are ambulence drivers until pictures pop up with AK-47/74s, flak jackets and 4 to 5 mags for the AK. I guess those social media pics are not their friend after they are captured.

Posted by: Jerry X | Jul 20 2022 19:14 utc | 115

Much confusion about Nord Stream 1. Reuters said Russia said it would be opening it tomorrow but Ursula vd Leyen said it would not. Is this Russian trolling or does the EU really want to punish its fossile-loving citizens by denying them Russian energy? Why is energy such a big deal in the first place. At one point one even had to argue there is not enough of it (non-renewable etc)? Now it is almost political dogma to provide as little as possible regardless of how much there is left.

RT has an article on it's English website which answers your question....

To summarize....

Canada shipped the turbine/pump set to Germany by air...

It had to clear German customs and be transferred to a ferry (ship) then transported by sea to Russia, 5-7 days transit.

Expected arrival in Russia this coming Sunday....

Then, it must go thru Russian Customs... taking whatever time that takes...

Then, it must be transported to the pump station some where in Russia.

Then, it must be un packed, examined, and tested to see if it works...

Then, it must be installed.

Then, it must be tested again with live loads to verify it works.

Then, the pumpsets requiring maintenance must be removed from service and packed for shipment to Siemens for Refurbishment.

Then, the gas flows are resumed at 20% of capacity, or less.

Of course, no one in Russia, is in a hurry.....

Capische??

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 19:19 utc | 116

Nice post, b, and great comments in this thread (as always) especially on the eternal 200 km problem. I believe Andrei Martyanov outright stated that RT is fifth column? ...

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jul 20 2022 14:58 utc | 35

The problem is that to be taken seriously as a media source in the west, RT must walk a fine line. Their goal, like all media, is to expand audience and eventually influence. So they have to appear to be doing neutral reporting while allowing editorial content writers to nudge readers to their team's side.

If they were a "fifth column" as suggested, changes to management would be made. The fact that they are not appearing to be as partisan as Martyanov would like is not a bug, it is a feature.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 20 2022 19:22 utc | 117

@yenwoda #108
Well roared, lion. But how are these numbers for the country about which you philosophize: Half a million dead, 2 million wounded, 6 million refugees in Syria. Because of a hastily enacted coup with mission creep into a proxy war with 10+ parties and dozens of amply by the West and its Gulf cronies financed/trained/armed terror groups. Libya is from the same scriptbook. In Sirte died in one bombing night alone 15k civilians. Of course, it was worth the effort, as M. Albright might have remarked again. After all, the bombers -just like you- said it was against ISIS. - Hunger not counting, I don't know of any bloody dictator who achieved these numbers of victims in such a short time. Assad and Ghaddafi definitely not. And sticking to the subject: Please give us your esteemed opinion about the plundering of Syrian oil fields by the US. Better you take it than ISIS, is that your explanation?
About the origins of ISIS we haven't talked yet. Please let us start with Paul Bremer who sacked the whole administration and army of Iraq and completely opened the industry for foreign looters; Actions which deprived millions of people and their families of their sole source of income. This terrorism invokes exactly what? Hand kisses? Turning the other cheek? I don't think so. Your opinion is welcome.

Posted by: OttoE | Jul 20 2022 19:40 utc | 118

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 20 2022 19:22 utc | 120

Since I dropped all MSM long ago I use RT and can find all the news there. Their news items are reasonably well written and attempt to be neutral.

Posted by: RB | Jul 20 2022 19:42 utc | 119

Biden mumbled reading the prompter. He said oil is bad because "That’s why I — and so damn many other people I grew up with — have cancer”

Apparently he's going to declare "climate emergency" next week which gives him power over import and export of oil and gas and anything he wants to close because farts

Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 19:43 utc | 120

@119
ship unpack etc... and then .... it's August, the state inspector is on vacation! So sorry, please leave a message!

jk

But seriously they could've seen this coming a month ago, and did. The drama now is for the public to get used to the idea, so they at least don't blame the local politicians. For some combination of reasons (among other things, $$$ for commodity traders, and those who will feast on the bailouts and bankruptcy asset sales), they want to have this crisis.

Futs market, (possibly artificially stabilized ???), looking remarkably ... unchanged from day to day.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 20 2022 19:43 utc | 121

Of course, no one in Russia, is in a hurry.....

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 19:19 utc | 119
---------

On this, you are right, but...people with the surname Oprisko are usually originated from Mykolaiv region of Lvov oblast. Well?

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 19:45 utc | 122

Lavrov like so many other figures, Ukrainian, Russian, American, and European, is guilty of selling the Lion skin before the animal is slain. Bluster. Perhaps a firm commitment to turn the lights out in western Ukraine if the Americans deliver long range weapons, longer range than the toscha U complex would be of a more deturant effect.

Posted by: Gerard | Jul 20 2022 19:46 utc | 123

Posted by: Gerard | Jul 20 2022 19:46 utc | 126
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Lavrov is a part of the TEAM, so you'd have to fathom different ways, the Team gets the thoughts through. Putin is the most calmest of the lot.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 19:50 utc | 124

I am confused by what appear to be conflicting reports on Russian gas being cut off to Germany.
July 18 it was widely reported that Gazprom had declared force majeure and had halted the gas indefinitely.

However, the next day Reuters reported that this decision had been reversed

And I see reports in Tass from July 19 and July 20 that don't seem to reflect anything like a cutoff

Putin proposed launching Nord Stream 2 to increase gas supplies to Europe

Putin warned of a possible reduction in pumping through the Nord Stream

Can anyone explain or clarify these reports? Did Russia/the Kremlin reverse the Gazprom decision?

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 20 2022 19:51 utc | 125

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 20 2022 19:49 utc | 127
------------

Where? On his tongue...?😋

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 19:51 utc | 126

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 20 2022 19:51 utc | 129
-----

The President also drew attention to the promises to soon return the turbine to Russia. "Now they tell us that we will soon receive this car from Canada. But Gazprom does not yet have official documents on this matter. And we, of course, must receive them, because this is our property, this is the property of Gazprom. And " Gazprom "must receive not only the metal, not only the car, but also the documents for it," the Russian leader stressed.

He explained that it was both legal and technical documents. "We must understand that Gazprom is taking something, in what condition the car arrived and what is its legal status: is it under sanctions, not under sanctions? What to do with it? Maybe tomorrow they will take it away," the head of state said.

He's having a laugh...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 19:58 utc | 127

Its at this point pointless to speculate on how much gas will enter the other end of ns1. We will know soon enough.

The most interesting thing of the saga is to watch the europeans run in circles like chicken just upon a word or 2 from the kremlin.

So biden has cancer? Lets take a guess: its the brain.

Posted by: Orgel | Jul 20 2022 20:05 utc | 128

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 18:43 utc | 109

Not all is smooth sailing in China...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1548140466633592833.html

"ontributors: Kristine Servando
Updated on July 15, 4:37 AM EDT
What You Need To Know
Why are people across China refusing to pay housing loans?

A wave of disgruntled homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished or stalled housing projects, as debt-strapped property developers run out of cash. Payments have stopped on at least 100 projects in more than 50 cities, according to researcher China Real Estate Information Corp. Analysts believe that a drop in home values may be another driver for the refusal to meet payments. Until recently, China’s mortgages have been considered among the safest banking assets because of high down payments and collateral value."

From root article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2022-07-15/why-are-people-across-china-refusing-to-pay-their-mortgages-what-to-know-so-far?srnd=premium-asia

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 20 2022 20:05 utc | 129

@129 re: gazprom

Gazprom thus far has not been satisfied that the documentation that assures service on which the pipeline relies, has been secured, in light of the stunt Canada pulled. Unfortunately their press releases are blocked by US internet.

Western reporting of this is incomplete and tends to misrepresent the actual information by omitting key details, I've found it unreliable to the point of being completely useless.

But lets do recall, that Brussels and half a dozen EU countries played this game for over a year. Obstructing bureaucratic technicalities to delay NS2.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 20 2022 20:10 utc | 130

@129
...
this all is in addition to the physical part being more than a month late, ie not even due to arrive until after the end of the originally scheduled maintenance window. It should've shipped by first half of June

Posted by: ptb | Jul 20 2022 20:13 utc | 131

The problem is that Russia tolerated the HIMARS delivery. They operate with US hardware, software, reconnaissance data and presumably even personel. Russia must face the reality that it is at war with the US. Taking more of Ukraine is an empty threat, not only for the obviously slow progress. If the empire is allowed to escalate without skin in the game, the outcome will be bad.

Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | Jul 20 2022 20:14 utc | 132

@26
During lunch I generated 300km buffers from the edges of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts.
The territory required to accomplish this can be done in a relatively short time frame, especially if the Ukrainian armies collapse.
https://imgbox.com/jbpkY5Sy

Posted by: Milton | Jul 20 2022 20:15 utc | 133

thanks b... appreciate the overview.....

RationalPeacekeeper | Jul 20 2022 20:14 utc | 136 quote

"If the empire is allowed to escalate without skin in the game, the outcome will be bad."

i think that is true... so the question is this - is the us$ and financial empire of the west considered 'skin' here?? is nato 'skin' in this game here? i think yes to both... they could both lose some skin here... but to the more pressing issue of innocent ukrainians, as opposed to innocent westerners - it seems ukrainians are paying with the loss of real lives... europeans and etc might be paying via higher food and energy costs - not quite the same..


Posted by: james | Jul 20 2022 20:24 utc | 134

Thanks very much to those who replied to my question about Gazprom.

I am hearing many reports that Ukraine is being ordered by Washington to stand and fight in Donbas. Reminds me of when Adolf Hitler took command on the Eastern Front and then forbid his generals to retreat and instead create "fortresses" where they wound up being slaughtered. History repeats itself . . .

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 20 2022 20:26 utc | 135

@yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 18:42 utc | 108

"I don't think the US or Russia should have gotten involved in Syria, although I think Assad's government prosecuted the war in an absolutely sickening way"

Equivocating nonsense. What world do you live in?

As Newton has taught us, "for every action there is a re-action". It is the dynamic engine of causality.

When considering criminal behaviour, to compare the moral stances of actor and re-actor in a manner that equates them is basically a defense of criminal behaviour.
The empire uses propaganda to validate its crimes. It does this not just as a cover (i.e. justification) for the crime, but also to invalidate the reaction to the crime (on all levels).

Morally speaking, it's obvious where you stand. Spare us the grief.

Posted by: Spinworthy | Jul 20 2022 20:29 utc | 136

On this, you are right, but...people with the surname Oprisko are usually originated from Mykolaiv region of Lvov oblast. Well?

Your ignorance is showing.....

All the Опришко(S) are relatives...

As I said earlier.... we are "Rusyn" from the Carpathian Mountains of what is now Eastern Slovakia...

Not said earlier.... There were 5 waves of emigration of members of our family from the old country to the USA...

My grandfather and his two brothers were in the second wave...

As for patriotism...

My uncle Albert did every landing from Guadacanal to Iwo... his platoon raised the flag on Mt. Suribachi..

My dad was in the US Army Signal Corps beginning in 1940... he helped develop RADAR..

MY uncle Joe died in his chute, killed by ground fire over Polesti...

My uncle Nick was training for the invasion of Japan when the war ended.

My old country relatives were in the resistance and joined up with the Red Army, eventually marching on Berlin..

As for you... you are a spurious MI6/CIA/NSA troll, who posts under a nome de plume, because he is ashamed of his real identity...

You don't like my attitude... FUCK OFF!!

As for me, I returned from the war in 1970. My oldest son served aboard the USS America during Gulf War(s) I & II...

I personally have relatives in Siber.. as well as The Carpathian Mountains...

I know who started this war, why they started it, and how it will end....

I know that Biden, etal.. are using this war to enrich themselves... at the expense of the citizens of the USA and Western Europe...

And...

I will not Shut Up... nor will I be censored by anonymous trolls such as your self...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 20:36 utc | 137

@OttoE, I believe I already gave my opinion on US actions in Iraq and Syria, you can add Libya to the list of although by the time NATO got involved, it was already a full-blown civil war which was going to result in many more dead before it ended and the country left a mess. Bremer was an arrogant idiot like Rumsfeld who did huge damage. None of that excuses or justifies Russia's invasion of Ukraine, or the "dirty war" that it engineered 8 years beforehand, which simply mirrors and reinforces US imperialism rather than refuting it.

@RationalPeacekeeper, I wouldn't say Russia "tolerated" HIMARS delivery. They lobbed a bunch of cruise missiles into city centers far from the front lines. But that's the only way they *can* escalate because their efforts against actual military objectives is already going 100%

@Milton, "assume a can opener"

Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 20:42 utc | 138

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 20:36 utc | 141
------------
Rusyn, eh? Sure!

But, most of the Oprisko come from Mikolayev region, Lvov Oblast, whatever you say. Oprisko are dime a dozen there.

My uncle Albert did every landing from Guadacanal to Iwo... his platoon raised the flag on Mt. Suribachi...
Oh, went on a safari to kill Asians...😏

My old country relatives were in the resistance and joined up with the Red Army, eventually marching on Berlin..
Sure, sure...citizen of the Empire of Lies...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 20:47 utc | 139

nothing escaped the "trained eye" of Inspector Clouseau.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jul 20 2022 20:48 utc | 140

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 20:36 utc | 141
---------
Оприско Ярослав Богданович, Україна, 81633, Львівська обл., Миколаївський р-н, село Устя, any relative of yours?

Or, Оприско Микола Васильович? Віра Оприско, Юрій Оприско, Андрій Оприско, Роман Оприско...and so on, all from \mikolayev region, Lviv oblast...😏

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 20:57 utc | 141

Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 20:42 utc | 142
------------
Himars are just BS stuff from Northrop Grumman, just a Katiosha on a truck...just like most of the American arms...You know, even the sandal-clad Afghans kicked the Americans out...with all the super-duper military equipment...sure!😋

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 21:03 utc | 142

ptb @134&135--

Thanks for your comments. I've tried to access Gazprom's Main Russian language website from here in Oregon and am prevented from connecting. Its Twitter page hasn't been updated in months; its VK page is truly socially oriented and has no business news; its Telegram is the only source that has any current info with today's entry repeating the one posted July 16:

"Despite previously sent requests, Gazprom has not yet received official documents from Siemens allowing it to supply a gas turbine engine for the Portovaya compressor station in the face of sanctions restrictions in Canada and the EU.

"In these circumstances, Gazprom again requested Siemens to provide such documents. Gazprom once again drew attention to the fact that the guaranteed return of the engine aimed earlier for repair under sanctions restrictions and the subsequent overhaul of other engines for the Portovaya compressor station directly affect the safe operation of the Nord Stream gas pipeline.'

It was suspected that the force majeure news item was usual Reuters propaganda. Gazprom's English and German language sites are also blocked. IMO, Gazprom would announce such an important notice on Telegram, but it didn't. Today, TASS in Russian reports the following:

The head of the Federal Network Agency (german regulator) Klaus Müller said that the volume of gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline on Thursday, July 21, will be 530 GWh; that's about 30% of the load. He wrote about this on Wednesday on his Twitter page.

"Gazprom boasted: now about 530 GWh of gas per day will be delivered on July 21 via Nord Stream. This will be about 30% of the load," Mueller said. At the same time, he added that further changes are possible.

Earlier on Wednesday, Mueller indicated that "initially approximately 800 GWh of gas was nominated for July 21, 2022 at the German entry points of Nord Stream."

In turn, the German gas transmission operator Gascade expects that gas transportation via Nord Stream will be resumed at the level of pre-maintenance (40% of the capacity), but since the launch of the infrastructure after repair is a complex technical process, the restoration of the gas pipeline capacity may take several hours and last until late Thursday morning, Gascade emphasized. Earlier, the first applications for the reception of Nord Stream gas by Germany at the receiving terminal in Greifswald on July 21 coincided with the indicators before the stop. Gas supplies through the gas pipeline are suspended from July 11 to July 21 due to scheduled repairs.

Notice the omission of Gazprom's request to Siemens or the supposed issuance of force majeure by Gazprom. In another TASS Russian article:

Siemens Energy said it was ready to service additional turbines for the Nord Stream gas pipeline if there was a political request and this would be possible in light of the existing sanctions regime. This was reported on Wednesday in the press service of Siemens Energy in response to a corresponding request to the TASS correspondent.

"Under normal circumstances, turbine maintenance is commonplace for us. If there is a political request and an opportunity under the sanctions regime, we will service additional turbines with the usual high quality standards, if we are instructed to do this," Siemens Energy said. "In such cases, our goal is always to deliver the turbine back to its place of use as quickly as possible," the company stressed.

Again, no mention of force majeure. Also, there's no announcement that gas deliveries will be delayed beyond the 21st when they're supposed to resume. I would expect Gazprom will want to see the repair-related documents Siemens is supposed to remit prior to restarting the turbine. Also, the PR isn't as pretty given the documentation drama. Since Siemens is dependent on Russian gas for its livelihood, you'd think it would act appropriately.

That's all I could dig up on this issue, although tomorrow will provide more, IMO.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 21:06 utc | 143

Bojo is the first to fall.. we will see more heads falling at an increased rate as reality hits the Europeans...

Posted by: Virgile | Jul 20 2022 21:09 utc | 144

Elena Zeleskaya asked the US congress arms...

Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss will be the next UK PM...Wish UK Liz Truss..

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 21:09 utc | 145

Elena Zeleskaya asked the Congress arms...

Rishi or Liz for the UK PM...wish UK Liz as the PM...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 21:10 utc | 146

BoJo gave advice to his successor or successor.

"stay close to Americans, protect Ukrainians, stand up for freedom and democracy everywhere"

Amazing goals and ambitions...😋

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 21:23 utc | 147

I've seen the term "US skin in the game" a few times.
Anyone care to guess how much farmland mineral concessions, loans etc US interested stand to loose with the inevitable conclusion of the hostilities?
Been left out of the discussion.

Posted by: Jpc | Jul 20 2022 21:25 utc | 148

Two points:

2) If the HIMARS are BS why is Lavrov making such a fuss about them? Or using them to make a point? Isn't he trolling again just to underline the fact that the Russian goals have become more ambitious?

2) And if the famous turbine is in Russia on Sunday what has it got to do with the scheduled maintenance that was supposed to be over tomorrow? Is not the reduction of capacity of the pipeline that will be is back in operation tomorrow due to the absence of one turbine?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 21:33 utc | 149

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 20 2022 17:03 utc | 73

I am curious to know what may be found in the "empty" holds of any freighters entering Odessa to load 404 grain stocks.

Posted by: Sushi | Jul 20 2022 21:36 utc | 150

I've seen the term "US skin in the game" a few times. Anyone care to guess how much farmland mineral concessions, loans etc US interested stand to loose with the inevitable conclusion of the hostilities? Been left out of the discussion. Posted by: Jpc | Jul 20 2022 21:25 utc | 152

Perhaps it was a typo and should have been "US skim in the game". The role of the Biden Family and various hangers on in grifting off of Ukraine aid and corporations is well known.

Trump was almost impeached, in part for exposing it. Why was Congress so opposed to Trump on corruption, something which should be a bread and butter issue to US voters? The answer is obvious, the majority of congress are in on it. The "10% for the big guy" is spread amongst a lot of players.

Their "skin in the game" should be on nooses from lamp posts.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 20 2022 21:42 utc | 151

Pepe Escobar recaps the Tehran Troika, "The power troika trumps Biden in West Asia":

"The bilateral meetings on the summit’s sidelines – Putin/Raisi and Putin/Erdogan – were even more intriguing. Context is key here: the Tehran gathering took place after Putin’s visit to Turkmenistan in late June for the 6th Caspian summit, where all the littoral nations, Iran included, were present, and after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s travels in Algeria, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, where he met all his Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) counterparts....

"So we see Russian diplomacy carefully weaving its geopolitical tapestry from West Asia to Central Asia – with everybody and his neighbor eager to talk and to listen to Moscow. As it stands, the Russia-Turkey entente cordiale tends to lean towards conflict management, and is strong on trade relations. Iran-Russia is a completely different ball game: much more of a strategic partnership."

Pepe's essay provides a good end-note for the previous Escobar and Ehret articles on transport corridors and Multipolar World direction. Do take note of the slow escalations in rhetoric employed by Lavrov and Putin--the "pain dial" as it's now called. I should note there's now a transcript for the RT-Lavrov interview for those of us who find it hard to take notes.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 21:47 utc | 152

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 21:33 utc | 153
--------------
Well, it is not easy to understand a Russian way of speaking by someone from the Unfriendlies.😏
Did Lavrov mention Himars, by the way?

Oh, the turbine? Well, its just a turbine...you know, it might not be well repaired...😏
Do you think, Russia won't fight the "west" economically? The idea is to break the EU/NATO...it is that simple...the problem is that the West doesn't know, what might be Russia's next step...keep on panicking...

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 21:47 utc | 153

Bojo is sitting on an absolute blockbuster of a memoir detailing the whole uproarious House of Commons et alia parliamentary dramas leading up to his election and finally getting Brexit through. Leaving aside whether or not he was a puppet etc. it was extraordinary drama. He stands to make millions from such a memoir after which he will have the option to stand far above all other party politicians if he so chooses. Or he can just settle for being rich, famous and a highly successful writer which he says is his first love.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 20 2022 21:49 utc | 154

@Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 21:33 utc | 153

Russia has already destroyed 760 MLRS in 5 months. That's an average of 5 per day.
HIMARS are just MLRS as the others, simply with the launcher mounted on a truck, hence the "high mobility" propaganda.
The other "big" difference is the ammo supplied by the West has a 80 Km range.
Well, Ukraine's Toshka-U have 120 Km range, and Russia still destroyed most of those launchers, and still progressed to fully liberate Lugansk's Republic.
So, yeah, this Lavrov interview is Russia way of setting the trap to lure the West to try to provoke Russia a bit more with the 300 Km range HIMARS' ammo.
Russia then has a justification (to keep the SMO and occupy more territory, or even escalate) that +80% of the Russians understand.
And more important, a justification that most of the Non-Western world also understands.

As to the turbine, it looks Russia is doing with gas what it did with the army during 2021. Set it on the borders, and see if the West's reaction is based on any common sense or just plain stupidity. Now the "army on the borders" is the maintenance that cut gas by 60%. Since Europe's stupidity was the answer (burn more coal, apply more sanctions, buy more gas from assassin dictatorships, and start preparing the citizens for a cold Winter), now Russia knows there's no sense in trying to keep any gas export at all. Next comes the "special military operation" of the gas export: not cutting the gas, instead make the European "leaders" do it, and make it even more clear that any crisis in Europe was created by its "leaders". Russia's gas "military" on the other hand, are already finishing deals to sell it somewhere else. End-game: regime change in Europe, or at least change some leaders in order to let some countries walk back on some of the stupidity without completely losing their faces.

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 20 2022 21:54 utc | 155

Kissinger playing the voice of reason at 99 years old is rather bizarre and surreal. Is he hoping God forgives him before he goes?

Posted by: Ghan-buri-Ghan | Jul 20 2022 21:56 utc | 156

Sushi@154

That is part of the negotiations - checking that no weapons are brought in. I believe there is technical agreement on demining and safe passage, but believe that Ukraine and partners are unhappy with some Russian conditions regarding their ability to export.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 20 2022 21:59 utc | 157

There's a tribe of old ones who don't want to go to bed without their very own World War under their belts; without which, they will keep wetting their beds 'til the last second, of the last minute, of their final hour.

Posted by: Aliciacz | Jul 20 2022 21:59 utc | 158

George Galloway on his YouTube show calls Truss a dime store Margaret Thatcher. When the Thatcher expectations aren't met and the ruse revealed in these extremely difficult times for the UK it'll all come back to bite her, at best, at worst she'll get her head on pike on London Bridge. We are getting there. She should be careful what she wishes for.

As with other's here I hope she wins, no real downside as Sunak, Truss, Starmer are interchangeable but Truss has it in her to sink England. If there's an anti-Christ she's the anti-Churchill. It'll require patience for us observers but it will happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoRObuz3N40

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 20 2022 22:02 utc | 159

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 20 2022 21:54 utc | 158

Probably. So: when people are arguing "if Russia is so powerful, why hasn't Russia done this or that?" the point is that Russia is playing the slow game to make the west do the damage to itself and expose its own incompetence.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 22:03 utc | 160

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 21:33 utc | 153
--------------

If only some reporters would ask the right questions...

Oh, someone did:
Saker - Putin

Restart of supply through Nord Stream 1 at 40%
Drop to 20% if turbine is not delivered on time as another turbine is scheduled for maintenance.

Posted by: John Henry Mackay | Jul 20 2022 22:04 utc | 161

Military summary suggests that Ukraine has been successful in damaging some bridges over the Dniper R in Kherson region with HIMARS. Targeting accuracy is key advantage is my understanding. Maybe that plus saturating air defense during attack. The threat posed is not zero, as with harpoons.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 20 2022 22:05 utc | 162

Posted by: John Henry Mackay | Jul 20 2022 22:04 utc | 164

Perfect

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 22:06 utc | 163

Ghan-buri-Ghan@159

Maybe he wants people to be able to visit his grave without risking fallout contamination.

Strange indeed.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 20 2022 22:16 utc | 164

Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 20 2022 19:51 utc | 129
I am no expert but i have been trying to follow it. I got the impression that the force majeur covered the period from the first drop down in supply ie that russia would not make up the difference between the 60% and 40%.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 20 2022 22:18 utc | 165

Regardless of what Yenwoda says, Russia didn’t want this war. If it did it would not have supported and advocated for Minsk, which was detrimental to the Donbas militias. (If Russia was behind the militias, then stopping them from whipping the Ukrainian army all the way to Kiev is a weird way to support them.) crimea was an unforced error by the US. By the brand new coup government going straight to talk of abrogating the friendship treaty, it tipped its hand to Russia which acted accordingly.

That said, Russia has laid a trap for the west and it’s been there for a while. It’s not really about Ukraine, though disarming NATO in the process appears to be quite the benefit. The real trap is exposing the US and undermining it’s primary sources of power. Part of the trap is the nonchalant reaction to western escalation; this is for non-westerners and provides a contrast in behavior. Part of it is not leveling Kiev; again, a contrast in behavior with the west. Part of it is always being willing to negotiate; another contrast of behaviors. But mostly it’s the patience to let the west harm itself.

In other words, if there will be this war, then Russia will make the most of it. The most of it likely includes Odessa but that’s neither here nor there. It is not guaranteed that Russia will succeed. She’s made mistakes in a generally well played “game”. Alaric sacked Rome, but the western empire didn’t fall from it. Unfortunately for all of us the west’s leadership is a goat rodeo of ideological ruin and incompetence. The game is increasingly dangerous and will become more so as the US gets more desperate.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 20 2022 22:36 utc | 166

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 20 2022 22:05 utc | 165

Long range rockets guided by NATO assets is the reason the SMO was started. To prevent such treats to its own and the allies territory, not only from future NATO member Ukraine, but also from NATO members in the region hosting missiles directed at Russia.

Todays words of Lavrov confirm this. Nothing has changed. We should all view the SMO in this light. Its always been about protecting itself from a situation with NATO assets on their borders.

It is also why Russia will also be looking at Sumy and Kiev. To have a DMZ along the river in the middle is their goals is my belief.

Himars is just a launcher for, among others, guided missiles of long range. If such missiles are indeed provided by NATO, along with targeting help and air defense, then the nature of the conflict changes. That is because it will be as if Ukraine has become a NATO member: the actual threat to Russia is the same.

Posted by: alek_a | Jul 20 2022 22:37 utc | 167


I thought Putin's statement that half the gas that was to be sold via NS2 has been reallocated to domestic use. Does anyone remember when the EU decided to no longer sell cheese to Russia? They built
a Dairy Industry rather quickly and started their own cheese industry. They could become World Leader in things derived from NG
and that German chemical business for themselves. Much more beneficial for Russia in the long run in my view.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jul 20 2022 22:37 utc | 168

The SMO seems to me to have cost the US much more than Russia. It has been extremely costly to the US. Alliances like tyres wear out. The more often they are used, the sooner they break up. And the US has put a lot of mileage on NATO in recent years, constantly demanding that it seconds every move it makes, even in the far reaches of the Pacific.

This talk of putting 100,000 soldiers in Poland is the sort of thing that calls for drinks all round in the Kremlin. What does it mean? Recruiting and training a hundred thousand more men? I don't think so. More like moving some from Germany, others from the UK, denuding a few garrison towns in the US, cutting back on the lads in Okinawa, and the 40,000 in Korea... Hang on a minute, aren't they also threatening China? Won't they need another couple of hundred thousand to go to Taiwan?

With 800 bases and a new push under way in Africa there are plenty of troops around but not a lot of spare capacity. And the cost of new bases, like the cost to the NATO countries of boosting military budgets at a time when unemployment and inflation are both rising, is horrendous.
And that is without actually doing anything with the military except moving it around, parading it and making sure that there is 'surf and turf' every Friday night and a golf course for the officers.

How much has Russia spent on the SMO? The logistics are routine enough- the Russian army has known the route to Novorossiya for centuries. Getting there is no sweat. And once there the natives are not just friendly, they are armed and eager allies.
How far is Lvov from the States? 7000 plus kilometres, I'd guess. A long haul by air and sea. And very complex and expensive logistics. And good luck with the allies.

Already, five months in, the eager allies in the EU and NATO are falling like ninepins. Johnson has gone and his probable successor doesn't know the difference between the Black Sea and the Baltic. Macron is greatly weakened, and partly thanks to Ukraine too. The Italian stooge Draghi has flamed out. The German coalition are dead men walking around in ever diminishing circles. The only government strengthened is Hungary's and that is largely because Orban refuses to read the Memos from Brussels.
The Baltic states are in permanent crisis: there aren't any more war memorials to pull down and the SS Veterans are dying like flies. And that is all that they have been selling the electorate for quarter of a century. They have no tricks up their sleeves, half the workforce is living abroad and about one in four of the population hates them.
Then there are The Netherlands the biggest losers, economically, from the current fighting: the rich had been drooling over the riches of the Ukraine, their eyes fixed greedily on the legendary Black Earth- quarter of a million acres of the best arable land in Europe and none of it under water.

Those who accuse Lavrov of threatening are deluded- what is happening is that Russia is calling the Bully's bluff, challenging him to do something more than print banknotes and issue threats to the media.

And it is all being done in front of a world which could really do with a lot more popcorn- an international community which has been watching in horror American attacks on undefended nations, its colour revolutions and its coups all backed up by threats of military might for so long that the sight and sound of Russia defying it is just what the world wants to see and hear.

So, how much has the US spent on providing Ukraine with arms? And training? And loans? And provocative manouevres in the Black Sea and elsewhere? How much on subsiding fascist politicians and building neo-NAZI militias? And how much has it forced its, increasingly reluctant, allies to spend? And how much have the sanctions cost it and them?

And what will the cost be of the confiscations of Russian gold and currency reserves- a subversion of the property rights that are all which is sacred in the religion of Washington. The property rights in whose name tens of millions of poor people, peasants and socialists have been killed, sacrifical bodies thrown on to an Aztec altar by the devotees of the cult of anti-communism.

The beauty of the process now in train is that everything that Washington does has been anticipated and is welcomed by its opponents. It wants to send an army to eastern Europe? It wants to equip its puppets in Kiev with the latest in military equipment? It wants to send the Speaker of the House to announce the independence and sovereignty of Taiwan? It wants to ban the use of Russian gas and oil? And fertilisers and grain? It wants to attack Iran with the Israelis? It is returning to Somalia? Doubling down in Yemen? Refusing to negotiate with Caracas?

It does the leaders in Beijing and Moscow great credit that they are not falling about in the streets, their eyes watering as they laugh uncontrollably, slapping their sides and calling for more. More, please , Joe. And never mind the ethanol, pass the popcorn. And wait for another surge into Kabul or Baghdad.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 20 2022 22:38 utc | 169

Missing Weapons

Missing from this debate is any discussion of weapons with a range considerably greater than 300 km.

There exist weapons of greater range. Weapons which rot you away from the inside and leave you prostrate, incapable of any defence. This class of weapon has been present on the battlefield since WWI. It was wielded with critical effect at the close of WII to deprive an empire of all its dominions and render it an empty husk, a supplicant vassal state.

When the European nations joined NATO they viewed NATO as a US supplied protective shield.

The Americans did not view it in the same terms. From the US perspective, NATO created a new borderland located 3,000 nautical miles from the American homeland. This NATO borderland delivered a battle-space in which US forces could duel to the death across the mittelland of Europe. The amount of destruction was irrelevant. The totality of lives lost was a meaningless total. The destruction of Europe was a small price to pay for protecting continental America. We fought them over there so we did not have to fight them over here.

The world is watching the implementation of this strategy.

Italy is on the verge of default. Spain is likely to be next. The German state is in the process of being eviscerated, its economic power destroyed, its national savings vaporized, as it becomes the bag-holder for a mountain of EU debt.

The coming financial crisis is already resulting in a flight to safety in the US dollar and this is expected to continue. The result will be an appreciation of the US dollar versus all other currencies. The increased valuation will help tame US inflation as imports become cheaper. Since most international debt is contracted in dollars, the debtor nations will face an increased debt service cost which they may be unable to bear. Egypt is on the front-lines but there are others in line behind it. As the US dollar strengthens, and foreign currencies weaken, US corporate entities will have the pick of foreign firms as they go on fire sale.

Western media is in love with its darling little 404 war but this is calculated misdirection "a storm in a tea cup, Mr. Dryden - a sideshow. If you want my own opinion, the Ukraine theatre of operations is a sideshow! The real war's not being fought against the Russkies, but the Germans, and the Chinese! And not here, but on the Pacific Ocean offshore Taiwan! Your Zelensky Army - or whatever it calls itself - is a sideshow of a sideshow!"

404 is a sideshow to the real conflict which is a banker's conflict.

Posted by: Sushi | Jul 20 2022 22:39 utc | 170

Оприско Ярослав Богданович, Україна, 81633, Львівська обл., Миколаївський р-н, село Устя, any relative of yours?

Or, Оприско Микола Васильович? Віра Оприско, Юрій Оприско, Андрій Оприско, Роман Оприско...and so on, all from \mikolayev region, Lviv oblast...😏

Sounds like they are your relatives... since you know them so well...

BTW...

How are things at Blechly Park...??

That is where you work....

Do you want me to tell everyone the building... floor.... office....

You should know that I can find your IP address... I'm a systems engineer by trade,
among other things...

BTW...

The hospital ward shown on our Institute masthead is Outapi District Hospital in Namibia where we were stationed for 2 years.

The Chinese are giving me an award at Shenzhen University where I taught engineering and was Dean of International Programs...

You do anything beside making up false names??? Hiding behind a paywall??

Hmmmm....

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 22:40 utc | 171

Posted by: watcher | Jul 20 2022 22:18 utc | 168

I think there is deliberate obfuscation with respect to the NS1 situation. Both sides are covering their assess seems to me, pretending to be thick. There is also delay with news items.

The real meter are gas price futures.

Posted by: alek_a | Jul 20 2022 22:43 utc | 172

Lavrov is a part of the TEAM, so you'd have to fathom different ways, the Team gets the thoughts through. Putin is the most calmest of the lot.

This from an ULTRA intercept??

You do work at Blechly Park.... don't you??

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 22:43 utc | 173

@ John Henry Mackay | Jul 20 2022 22:04 utc | 164 with the Saker link about the Putin interview

Thanks for that.

Great interview and lots of details the West doesn't get.

The reality of that world in contrast to the dystopian Plato's cave "reality" of the West is stark which that interview shows.....the dogs of empire are barking but the caravan of humanity is moving on.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 20 2022 22:45 utc | 174

@147 karlof1

Thanks!

Gazprom does have an english language twitter I can see (east coast US) https://nitter.net/gazpromEN but it's pretty skeletal

That last item, the Siemens statement ... It sounds conditional on approval of various countries, which I think is the sticking point. Canada in particular framed their approval of the turbine as a special exception, although another German secondhand or thirdhand report (I forget who now) said they were willing to allow it for 2 years. Hardly reassuring for future business.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 20 2022 22:52 utc | 175

Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 20:36 utc | 141

Yes , ostro is obviously a deep-state employee, one that has been here for a few years under various names.

A little more clever this time around. On the one hand, consistently giving lip service to the general consensus here at MoA.

On the other, sowing discord and distraction attacking other regular contributors via projection. Making accusations of deep-state employ, while being employed by the deep state. Also has a knack for disrupting good conversation with insane comments.

In any event, ostro is a cunt who is better ignored than engaged.

Posted by: Arthurdent | Jul 20 2022 23:01 utc | 176

From the RT-Lavrov transcript's opening question about negotiating with Kiev, well Washington actually:

It won't work. They will never be able to formulate some "things" that deserve serious attention of people. We got it. It is no secret that Kiev is being deterred from any constructive steps, not just pumped with weapons, but forced to use the weapons received more and more riskily. Foreign instructors and specialists sit there, maintain these systems ("HIMARS" and others).

American, British (Anglo-Saxon) "colleagues" with the active support of the Germans, Poles, Balts want to make this war real, to pit Russia against European countries. Washington and London, which sit far beyond the oceans and straits, benefit from this. First of all, the European economy suffers. Statistics have appeared, according to which 40% of the damage from sanctions is borne by the European Union, the United States - less than 1%, if we take the cumulative negative impact of restrictions.

There is no doubt that the Ukrainians will not be allowed to negotiate until the Americans decide that they have sufficiently "scandalized" and sowed chaos. Then you can leave Ukraine to itself and see how it will twist.

The follow-ups move into the topic of nuclear war:

Q: Do you think this plan is possible? A "big" war, a clash between Russia and European countries? In fact, this also means nuclear war.

Sergey Lavrov: The Americans do not think about it. Ambitious guys who want to reach new "heights" in their careers have come to the Administration. I don't know how they, within this Administration, will try to achieve such goals. They act irresponsibly, build plans, schemes that are fraught with serious risks. We talk about it publicly. We could have told them, but the Americans don't want to talk to us, and we won't run after them.

The previous dialogue was not useless, if only because we looked into each other's eyes and outlined our approaches. After the start of a special military operation, the United States tore it up. I think Washington has not yet realized that they are playing dangerous games, but in Europe many are beginning to understand this.

Question: From our point of view, is it possible: a clash between Russia and the United States, a nuclear war?

Sergey Lavrov: We were the initiators of several statements (Russian-American, the leaders of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council) that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it can never be unleashed. That's our position. Let's stand firmly on it.

At the same time, we have an approved doctrine that clearly explains in what cases Russia will be forced to use nuclear weapons. Our partners, colleagues, rivals, "enemies" (I no longer know what they call themselves in relation to us) are well aware of this.

The direction then shifts, which I'll document in another comment.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 23:02 utc | 177

And off into the new direction which is mostly about EU but also a host of other "people" issues:

Before your arrival, Maria Zakharova and I discussed those whom you have just described as "serious, it seems, people." Of course, they made fun of them, because how not to do it? For example, the latest comment by White House Press Secretary Catherine Jean-Pierre, who replaced our "beloved perennial" J. Psaki. She was asked what President Joe Biden had been doing for two days. She said he was "thinking about the American people."

What am I getting at? Western leaders are now all "crumbling." Many of them show signs of, as it were, "limited adequacy", and sometimes even "limited sanity". Now they will change. Do we have reason to believe that those who succeed them will be able to show signs of slightly less "limited adequacy"?

Sergey Lavrov: There is another way to put it. The current political establishment, which has "grown up" in the West, belongs to the class of "adequate narrow-mindedness": from their own point of view, they are adequate, but in terms of political experience and outlook, they represent a limited elite.

Q: Why is that?

Sergey Lavrov: I don't know, but many people pay attention to this. Recently, G. Kissinger, recalling G. Schroeder, J. Chirac, spoke about this. Not so rude, but generally made it clear that the contrast is striking.

There is such an "average" attitude to political processes. It is necessary to elect people who are understandable and will hit some simple banal point. They came up with this "green transition": everyone will soon suffocate, die, dolphins, fish will disappear, people will be left alone in the desert. That's the "green transition" they got. President of Russia Vladimir Putin spoke in detail about how this was built in Western politics, and how it turned out to be a huge failure, since nothing was calculated.

I don't know what the inadequacy is. Perhaps the lack of bright leaders is convenient for someone.

Q: For whom?

Sergey Lavrov: There are 60,000 bureaucrats who make up the European Commission. That's a lot. They have become a "thing in themselves." It is no coincidence that Poland, Hungary, or someone else asks the question: why obey these people, including in those areas where competence was not transferred to them. It really is.

Question: So this is the American "deep state" in Europe, right?

Sergey Lavrov: It turns out that this is the case. Not quite, however, the "deep state", but the elite, the European Commission.

Q: "Shallow state"?

Sergey Lavrov: Yes, and here the pendulum is now swinging: from the side that was associated with rapid integration to another. The demands imposed by Brussels, which are not always based on any legislative agreements, are beginning to irritate and prevent countries from building their internal, national life in accordance with traditions and with their religion. Today they "stick" to Budapest with the propaganda of non-traditional values. Hungarians, like us and many others, do not want this. The European Commission begins to indoctrinate them, to demand to change their position, otherwise the already agreed funding will not be allocated. I think this is sad for the European Union.

Question: But joyful for us?

Sergey Lavrov: I don't think this is a joy for us. I think we should take an indifferent stance. We cannot rejoice that people in Europe will freeze and live poorly.

Question: There is no freezing. Or maybe the Europeans will get tired of the "imposition" you are talking about? And in the countries will come to power nationally-oriented politicians who think about their citizens, and therefore do not want to quarrel with Russia? It is not good for any people to quarrel with our country.

Sergey Lavrov: That is true. This healing process is correct. People get rid of the illusion that Brussels will decide everything for them, that every day everything will be the same: cheap energy, food, everything is fine. It is probably in the interests of Europe itself and its constituent peoples to do this, but I do not know how such processes will take place.

We will not rejoice, but we will not worry much either. I think we need to stick to a detached line. It is they who have created such a story for themselves, they want to live in such conditions, to get rid of natural, profitable ties that have been created for many decades in the field of energy, logistics, transport communications. It's their choice. "You won't be forcibly cute." This process, when they complete it (if they can do it at all, since it is not possible to obtain benefits), will be expensive for the subsequent development of the European economy. Let them not ask us to return to some agreements again. They have proven to be unreliable. We cannot plan long-term strategic investments in the development of our country and its external relations, taking into account such "partners". We will have other partners, understandable. They have always been: in the East, in the South, on other continents. Now that the share of the West in our foreign economic relations has sharply decreased, the share of our other partners will increase accordingly.

About trends in Europe. There is also complete irresponsibility in explaining to the peoples of their countries the causes of the current crisis. German Chancellor O. Scholz declares that there is no slightest doubt that Russia intends to limit gas supplies via Nord Stream for political, not technical reasons. He has no doubt! It is as if the facts that we have repeatedly reported, and President of Russia Vladimir Putin spoke about this, do not show how Europe systematically and consistently reduced the opportunities for Nord Stream 1, how it "suspended" Nord Stream 2, how restrictions were retroactively imposed on the use of Nord Stream when investments have already been made and it is impossible to change the rules for capital investments at this stage. Nevertheless, the European Commission insisted and it was done. Instead of one hundred percent filling of the pipe, they limited its volume to half.

We are now accused of using hunger as a weapon. This is what W. von der Leyen said.

Question: Hunger and cold. Remember we had "General Frost"? Now " General Wheat" and "General Heating".

Sergey Lavrov: US Treasury Secretary John Yellen recently made a pathetic statement that the United States will not allow Russia, China or anyone else to change the international economic rules that are allegedly approved by the whole world. She said that Russia will not be allowed to use the processes of economic integration as a weapon. In my opinion, this already "interrupts the other pearls" that we hear in greater numbers today, and resembles agony - people no longer know how to explain their failures.

Question: You mentioned the "green" transition and how they are trying to "push" some eastern European countries, which, like us, do not have an LGBT agenda. As an experienced person who has observed many processes for decades, perhaps this is clearer and more understandable than to us, ordinary people. This whole agenda is the "green" transition, LGBT, MeToo, BLM, the abolition of ballet in the main English dance school, the ban on passing mathematics, since minorities will not master this subject in some other schools, the ban on calling breast milk breast milk, mothers - mothers. People sit and think, but can not find answers to the questions: what is it for, what is the idea, who manages it, who benefits from it. What do you think is behind this?

Sergey Lavrov: With the analysis available to us, we cannot get into their shoes and understand why all this is necessary. It's impossible to understand. If a person has any inclinations, why shouldn't he be left with it? Let him get carried away. Why make all this a "banner of movement"?

Q: Why does the president's newly appointed press secretary come to the podium and say she's lesbian and "black"?

Sergey Lavrov: I am also interested in how and where Western political thought is evolving. Some progressive, in terms of rejection of imperialism and colonialism, philosophers believe that the "golden billion" or those who lead it and solve political issues want to reduce the world's population, because "there is not enough for everyone." Everything is not enough, but everyone is a lot. As M.M. Zhvanetsky joked in his mise-en-scene, "there should be fewer of us." This was in the Soviet Union. At that time, we lacked food and goods. Now one of the explanations that I read in some Western sources is just that. It's creepy.

Question: It is not very logical, because the "golden billion" thus reduces the "golden billion", and Africa, on the contrary, multiplies. In Nigeria, which now wants to be friends with us, there are seven people for every woman.

Sergey Lavrov: No. All these habits are constantly broadcast there.

Q: Until they get there... Look at the entire Hollywood elite. Every second child is already transgender or someone else in this spirit, non-binary, that is, they will no longer have grandchildren. We started with ourselves. That's for sure.

Sergey Lavrov: Perhaps this is also part of the plan to share less. I immediately said that I could not explain it clearly and reasonably. I probably presented one of the conspiracy theories to you.

I find it very interesting to know Lavrov's thoughts on all the above. IMO, he's describing a Nomenclatura that's very Neculturny and expects the commonfolk to follow their terrible examples. And as you'd expect, the line of questioning and answering changes yet again and will take another comment.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 23:16 utc | 178

Posted by: Soi | Jul 20 2022 13:50 utc | 5

As England wants to break Russia, why does Russia not destabilise England through oppressed minorities in England and with Scottish help.

I can see it now.

"Hello, oppressed minorities! And, eh, Scottish! Unite! You have nothing to lose but your Coronation Street! So... who here wants to do a crime?"

It'd be anarchy in the UK, I tell ya.

Posted by: ZX | Jul 20 2022 23:16 utc | 179

To actually follow the letter of the law won’t nato or the EU have to vote on sanctions not being applied to Gasprom?
I’m pretty sure they can’t just yell out random laws then just ignore them. Russia is going to make them all get together and sign papers saying “we suck” lol.
Then everyone has to look a fool and say on camera “we won because Russia wants us to not be united but we are”
Or he is hoping some people vote no, perhaps that’s why Germany is trying to take away certain countries ability to have a voice.
Those Russians are sneaky sharp

Posted by: OhhCanada | Jul 20 2022 23:22 utc | 180

Оприско Ярослав Богданович, Україна, 81633, Львівська обл., Миколаївський р-н, село Устя, any relative of yours?

Or, Оприско Микола Васильович? Віра Оприско, Юрій Оприско, Андрій Оприско, Роман Оприско...and so on, all from \mikolayev region, Lviv oblast...😏

Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 20:57 utc | 145

It should be apparent that I am located in the USA.

I don't have access to the Lviv resident's directory, but Ostro apparently does....

So......

Why??? How????

I speculate that "Ostro" is a member of a NATO intelligence/military unit resident in Lviv..

That the names he cites are either total fictions... or members of his unit...

His job is to shut me and other informed posters up...

Note that his postings are inane.....

Oh, the turbine? Well, its just a turbine...you know, it might not be well repaired...😏

It isn't just a turbine. It is an integrated high pressure, high volume pump set.

The hot section of the gas turbine needed replacement. They are only good for a certain number of operating hours.

The gas turbine is based on a jet engine from Rolls-Royce, since taken over by Pratt&Whitney - Canada.

Were you an engineer you would know this.

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 20 2022 23:32 utc | 181

A number of questions and speculations respond here at MoA over this next segment of the interview which discusses not publicly mentioned until now aspects of the UN's "Grain Deal" and deals with the oft asked question, Why does the UN act that way?

Question: Both before the special operation and now it is believed that the West will not be able to cope without us. In many ways, this is true. We see this in the partial lifting of sanctions. It is not clear: the package adopted this week was a set of new restrictions or the abolition of old ones. And what if they do? What do you see as a prospect? Can the West completely abandon our energy resources in the future: not for this winter, but for the next or through one; not to launch Nord Stream 2, to stop using the resources of Nord Stream 1? Is there even such a possibility? How do you assess it?

Sergey Lavrov: What is the next announced package of restrictions: sanctions or exemptions from them - both, since the West has already exhausted all possible areas in which it was ready to harm us. Right now, they are already forced to think about what they have done and how it affects them. Now, as I understand it, the Westerners have made clarifications that will allow servicing the export of Russian food. For many months, we were told: Russia is "guilty" of the food crisis, because food and fertilizers are not subject to sanctions, so our country, they say, should not "dodge", but is obliged to trade - because no one prevents this. We, in turn, explained for a long time that although food and fertilizers themselves are not subject to sanctions, freight, insurance, visits by our ships carrying these goods to foreign ports, visits by foreign ships to our harbors in order to pick up cargo immediately fell under the first or second package of Western restrictions. They just lie in our eyes, saying that all this is not true and depends only on us. It's unclean.

Unfortunately, they (Westerners) tried and are still trying to draw UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres into their games, who, concerned about the food crisis, came to Russia. At a meeting with President of Russia Vladimir Putin, he came up with a package deal. There is Russian grain, which must be freed from artificial, illegitimate restrictions, and there is Ukrainian grain, which must be "cleared of mines". A. Guterres proposed that he would get Europe and the United States to remove all obstacles to the export of Russian grain, and Russia would cooperate with them, the Turks, ukrainians in clearing the Black Sea ports in order to export grain from there. We replied that, in principle, the Black Sea ports can be cleared without us, but if there is such a desire, we can agree. The Secretary-General advertised this package and promoted it.

Last week, our colleagues went to Istanbul to agree on this scheme. We agreed on the basic principles according to which Ukrainian grain will be exported, but when the Russian delegation recalled the second part of the package deal, the Ukrainians categorically refused, and the UN delegation simply shamefully remained silent.

Yesterday we sent a signal to the Secretary-General that this was his initiative. In response, A. Guterres proposed to first resolve the issue of Ukrainian grain, and then with Russian grain. It's unclean. It is not appropriate for people involved in big politics to behave like this. This fact means only one thing - I am convinced that the Secretary-General is under enormous pressure, first of all, by the Americans and the British, who settled in the UN Secretariat around A. Guterres as deputies and are actively using this "privatised" structure in their own interests. It's sad.

Question: How can this pressure be exerted technically? To explain to ordinary people: if you don't do that, we're going to ... will we plant it? What will we do?

Sergey Lavrov: I do not think that any personal methods of blackmail are used. When there is a vote at the UN General Assembly, ambassadors are approached and told that a resolution against Russia has been submitted to the vote, while reminding, for example, about the bill through Manhattan and their daughter at Stanford. Something like that.

Q: It's kind of the same thing.

Sergey Lavrov: It happens. Here, of course, they act not to such a degree of arrogance. Employees of the UN Secretariat (the vast majority of them are from Western countries, since the number of delegated secretariat employees depends on the contribution of each state) in more cases do not act completely neutrally, as required by the UN Charter and the Regulation on the Secretariat of the Organization. That's life. I state this. It's always been that way.

On the second part of your question, I think that westerners are now trying not to show their fallibility in any way. The ruling parties will do this with all the truths and untruths – they have no other choice, but there is still opposition. In Austria, voices have already begun to cut through (the Austrian Freedom Party, which is not very welcome in Brussels, exists, and this is a legitimate entity). In other countries, there is an opposition that asks why they are doing this, why it is impossible to look and agree. Many have questions.

In developing countries, there is no such perception that Russia has crossed a certain "red line". They remember what the Americans did in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Yugoslavia in 1999. No warnings, no warnings that American interests have been infringed upon, and no calls to do anything...

Question: No eight years of trying to reach an agreement...

Sergey Lavrov: 10,000 kilometres from its coast, the United States bombed these countries and leveled their cities. No Europe has even dared to "pick" that this is a bad thing.

Question: Without protecting the American population living en masse in these territories...

Sergey Lavrov: Yes. In our case, the situation is fundamentally different. This is a real threat, not invented in order to extend its imperialist tentacles overseas, a threat on our borders. For many years, we warned that we should not make anti-Russia out of Ukraine, introduce NATO into this country, and create direct military threats to our security. Everyone understands this very well.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 23:32 utc | 182

Dr. George @185--

Thanks for your excellent answer and summation!

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 20 2022 23:35 utc | 183

The interview's last segment covers lots of ground--Africa, Former USSR, relations with exes, how Europe will cope with sanctions fallout and ending with the SMO. Those who read all segments of the transcript or watched it via video ought to have a much greater appreciation for Lavrov the Human as well as Lavrov the diplomat. As he relates, he's been through a great deal, some of which that was not at all comfortable. I have an idea what dimension his unanswered question would take that emotionally is very complex and very personal. Russia and the world are very fortunate to have a man of Lavrov's capabilities at this moment in history.

Returning to Europe, I do not think that it is in European interests to completely sever all ties with us and switch to LNG, which the Americans are trying to do to them...

Question: Learn.

Sergey Lavrov: I would like to say a less decent word, but "learn" will do.

Sergey Lavrov: It will be their choice. Serious scientists write that all economic life, all the well-being of the last decades of Germany was associated primarily with Russian energy at affordable, acceptable and predictable prices. Yes, LNG is a more flexible commodity. At the "end" of the pipe, gas must be bought, and LNG can be redirected. But that's a minus. When demand rose in Asia, the Americans sent their LNG there, because it is more expensive there. All this can be associated not only with higher prices, but also with a shortage of supplies at a certain stage. But if they do, we won't have any particular problems.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin said that, due to what they are doing about Nord Stream 2 (we are always ready to launch it, it is under pressure), already in the current situation 50% of the volumes intended for this gas pipeline have been reserved for our domestic consumption: both for heating purposes, for the chemical industry and for other industrial tasks.

We are reorienting ourselves without any major losses. I have no doubt about that. We have buyers, demand, in the end, there are needs within the country: gasification and the development of the chemical industry.

Question: And thousands of villages without gas...

Sergey Lavrov: That's what I'm saying is gasification.

So it will be their choice. I want to say again that we should not (and, thank God, no one is trying) now build any schemes that will proceed from the possibility, probability, and even desirability of returning to the situation six months ago, when it was possible to restore all these "chains". I believe that they should be "finished" and new ones should be built that will be more reliable. That's what we're doing now. Including the North-South corridor from St. Petersburg to the Indian Ocean, from India to Vladivostok. There are a number of projects in a high degree of implementation. If and when at some stage Europe suddenly says that they are hot and are interested in restoring our relations in the economic and trade spheres, then there is no need to push them away. We need to see how beneficial this is to us, and only then react.

Question: They threw it once, and they threw it a second time – that's how they speak Russian. You mentioned the diversification of our areas of cooperation. We talked at length and a lot about the East (China, India). Now you are flying to Africa, that is, to the south. What are you going to do there? What do you expect from this? And what can we expect from this?

Sergey Lavrov: We have long-standing good relations with Africa since the days of the Soviet Union. The USSR was a "pioneer", the leader of the movement that eventually culminated in decolonization. We provided assistance to the national liberation struggle, then to the restoration of independent states and the rise of their economies. Many hundreds of enterprises have been built, forming the basis of the economy of many African countries. At the UN, we were ahead of the movement for this decolonization to be formalized as an integral part of international law and life.

Then there was a period when the Soviet Union disappeared and the Russian Federation appeared. The problems were acute. Not in Africa, but much closer. First of all, inside our country.

We have been restoring our positions for many years. Africans reciprocate. They are interested in us coming to them. We have never taught them anything, we have always helped them solve problems that allow them to live in their country the way they want.

Question: They just think that we taught them, but in a good sense of the word.

Sergey Lavrov: No. We helped them to solve the tasks that they set for themselves. Here's the thing. They were never told, don't be friends with America or anyone else. We still do not read any notations, unlike the Americans, who, traveling around Africa, constantly say: "Do not communicate with either the Chinese or the Russians. They're always driven by some kind of self-interest, even when you're being traded."

We have mutual visits every year. Every one to two years, the Minister of Foreign Affairs visits African countries. We try to do this in such a way as to cover as many countries as possible in a period of two to three years. This year will be Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and the Republic of the Congo. In all these countries, we have good traditions and economic groundwork.

Egypt is our first trade and economic partner in Africa. The volume is under $5 billion. The first nuclear power plant is being created. The formation of the Russian industrial zone on the banks of the Suez Canal is nearing completion. History becomes even more forward in the context of the decisions taken by the African Union last year to establish the African Continental Free Trade Area. Now specific criteria and tariffs that make up the content of this zone are being agreed upon (it will take some time). For Russia, as a growing partner of Africa, this will be beneficial and useful in terms of increasing our volumes in trade and investment. But they are very modest in comparison with the United States, China and the European Union. We must now work well with our colleagues on preparations for the second Russia–Africa summit. The first was in Sochi in 2019. We are planning the second one for next year.

Question: In Odessa, for example?

Sergey Lavrov: No. Probably not in Odessa. We'll announce later. But in parallel with the summit, there will be an economic forum, there will be round tables on trade, on energy, on "cyber affairs", on agriculture, on space, on nuclear energy.

We need to increase our volumes. Africa is 1.4 billion people. This is comparable to China, to India. This is the most powerful part of the modern world. Probably the most promising market. Therefore, far-sighted campaigns, states are building a long-term strategy towards Africa. This is the continent of the future. We have an excellent political foundation for our relations and a good understanding, based on the fact that thousands of Africans who hold positions in their Governments have studied and continue to study with us. We need to translate this capital (human, political) into economic form.

Question: What kind of relationship do we have with our "former" (I understand that "former" are rarely friends, but still sometimes happen)? Are there any real friends among our "former" ones, including Belarus? What is really happening with Kazakhstan (we see multi-vector signals from there)? Isn't there a feeling that we ourselves are a little to blame for some things? That we ourselves "missed" them, "gave" them to Europe, America, even Turkey. What do you think?

Sergey Lavrov: There was such a period. The Soviet Union ceased to exist. We signed the Belovezhskaya Accords. Of course, the countries that were not invited to the Belovezhskaya Pushcha were wounded. There's no doubt about it. I see them. Then they tried to correct this situation (to smooth out the awkwardness, so to speak). Until the end of 1991, a special meeting was organized in Alma-Ata. But the residue remained. Most importantly, it was an event; and the event was followed by trials.

In the first years after everyone became independent and sovereign, our leadership, by and large, paid little attention to preventing any cooling in relations with our neighbours, closest allies and associates. Thousands, many hundreds of years lived together. I remember that. From 1992 to 1994, he was Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs until he left to work in New York. I was engaged in international organizations, but at some stage A.V. Kozyrev asked me to "deal with" the CIS. I didn't have long to do that. The situation was not very optimistic (it is clear that it was not the Foreign Ministry that decided the issues of how to build policy in this space – it was decided in the Presidential Administration). Everyone thought at the time: where would they go? We lived together all the time: the language is the same, we went to universities the same, our tastes are the same as theirs. Therefore, they say, "we live and live." The economy, of course, has been intertwined over all these long decades and centuries in a way that cannot be broken.

But the West did not sit idly by. That's the truth. And not just the West. If you look at Central Asia now, how many "Central Asia plus partner" formats are there. These are "plus the United States", and "plus the European Union", and "plus Japan", and "plus China", "plus Turkey", "plus India". And "plus Russia" as well. Because, despite the fact that we have the CIS, the EAEU, the SCO, the CSTO, there was no such structure where all five Central Asian countries and Russia are together. Now it's there.

This is not only through our foreign ministries, but also through our economic structures. This is an important process. Water management, energy – everything was the same. Now our Western "partners" are trying to "infiltrate" these areas. The European Union and the United States offer their own programs that will be already under "them", under "external" players, adjust the processes maturing in the field of water use, energy, based on the Soviet legacy. Here, it would seem, God himself commanded. As we actually offer to our partners. They agree with this, but this natural process the West is trying in every way to "upset" and "infiltrate" from the outside into our affairs with our "exes", as you say. A.A. Voznesensky once said: "Do not return to your former lovers." This is where the poem begins. But it ends with the words: "You still have nowhere to go."

Question: Valentina Polozkova, a fashionable contemporary poetess, has the following lines: "She is friends with all her exes as if they have never betrayed her."

You, and the Foreign Ministry, said that you did not know about it before the start of the SVO. At least long before they started, they didn't know. Maybe it wasn't, but that was the impression. May I ask you, how did you find out about this? How did you feel? I remember well how we felt with T.E. Keosayan at night at home when we found out about it. I wonder how you felt. What do you think of the people who are now called "frightened patriots", who left frightened, who are "ashamed", etc.?

Sergey Lavrov: As for when I found out about this, it is not my secret.

Question: So this is not a state secret?

Sergey Lavrov: This is not a state secret, but it is not my secret. I will not, with your permission, touch upon this topic.

As for the sensations and feelings that I experienced when all this was already announced, it is inevitable. Not joy. It is difficult to rejoice when hostilities are coming, when the citizens of your country go to defend justice and risk their lives. But inevitability and even a sense of relief. For many years, we could not answer the question of these people, not only from Donbass, but also many of our citizens: "How long?" As long as it is possible to mock common sense, the people, the UN Security Council resolution, everything that was associated with it and what was sabotaged "brazenly".

Question: What do you think about those who are ashamed to be Russian?

Sergey Lavrov: We are currently having a big discussion about foreign agents, whether it was right to draft a new law, which some consider expansive and wonder whether it is right or wrong.

I watch talk shows, including those in which you participate, where there is an argument that is understandable to any person: "They left, what to do with them next?", "If they return, how to treat them?", "Should they be let in?". I don't have a point of view. Each person is the master of his own destiny. Absolutely. But everyone should have a conscience. And that particular person should live with it. I proceed from this. But what I cannot accept are publications (it is my duty to read some resources declared by foreign agents in our country) and with what pleasure they describe the insurmountable (from their point of view) problems faced by the Russian Federation. With what ...

Q: Schadenfreude.

Sergey Lavrov: Yes, they predict collapse. Someone there wrote that now Russia faces death from the point of view of high technology, because it has neither brains nor organizational structures. So write about your country!

Some others exercise too. When Roscosmos, in response to the sanctions, told the Americans that since they themselves do not want to, we do not transfer the engines to them and the British, so they brought our corporation under sanctions. So, they cannot contact Roscosmos. Another foreign agency website erupted with the maxim that our corporation has violated all imaginable obligations, now it is a dishonest partner and now no one will communicate with it. We say double standards. Here they are. There is not even a need to look for any complex designs.

I proceed from the fact that these people themselves should be left alone with themselves and understand. How to treat them is another matter. Their former acquaintances, whether they will communicate with them, how much the state is going to resume relations with them is another matter. The main thing is to leave them alone with their own conscience.

Question: Your belief that everyone has a conscience has already let you down with Petr Poroshenko and the Minsk agreements. Maybe you just stop believing it? Not everyone has a conscience, unfortunately.

We're all curious, and every person in the country is thinking about when "it" will end. We all want the special military operation to end as soon as possible. So that people stop dying: our fighters, civilians, who are "shuffled" every day by their former Ukraine, which still considers them de jure their own, which does not interfere with it, as we know. When will it end? We don't know. I'm not going to ask you about it. Obviously you can't answer me.

In your opinion, where should this end? We are not talking about the fact that Vladimir Putin initially announced to us the goals, which means the future results of this operation: demilitarization, denazification. That's understandable. And where geographically? Where would that be reasonable, right, and good for us?

Sergey Lavrov: As for the predictions and deadlines, I remembered a funny fact. The other day, Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said that Vladimir Zelensky had set a deadline for joining the European Union, but he would not name this deadline, because many in the European Union may be frightened and will begin to slow down their accession to the EU.

We don't have deadlines. As for the special military operation and geographical coordinates, President Vladimir Putin said clearly (as you quoted him): denazification, demilitarization, in the sense that there are no threats to our security, military threats from the territory of Ukraine. That task remains. When there was a meeting of negotiators in Istanbul, there was only one geography. Our readiness to accept the Ukrainian offer was based on the geography of the end of March 2022.

Question: That is, the DPR and LPR?

Sergey Lavrov: So, more or less. Now the geography is different. This is not only the DPR, LPR, it is also Kherson, Zaporozhye region and a number of other territories. This process continues, and continues consistently and persistently. As the West, in such impotent anger, in the desire to aggravate the situation as much as possible, "pumps" Ukraine with more and more long-range weapons. These are "HIMARS". Defense Minister Alexander Reznikov boasts that they have already received three hundred kilometers of ammunition. This means that geographical tasks will be pushed even further away from the current line. We cannot allow the part of Ukraine controlled by Vladimir Zelensky or who will replace him to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the republics that have declared their independence and want to determine their own future.

Q: How is that technical? Here's our territory. This is the territory of the republics that will join us. Yeah, obviously they've already joined us. Kherson, Zaporozhye region. You are diplomats, you can't say that. I'm a journalist. I call a spade a spade. Then the territory that is controlled by V.A. Zelensky. They're touching. That is, either there should be some kind of buffer zone between them in these 300 kilometers, or we should go to Lviv inclusive.

Sergey Lavrov: There is a solution to this problem. The military knows this decision.

Q: But it's a secret? Do you think there is a chance that we will leave without finishing? This is very much feared by our subscribers, viewers.

Sergey Lavrov: I see no reason to question what President Vladimir Putin announced on February 24 and what he once again confirmed a few days ago: all the goals remain the same. And they will be fulfilled. [My Emphasis]

Yes, as predicted, all of Ukraine must be cleansed. There's simply no other path. The very odd point is the West could foil Russia's aim by surrendering tomorrow, but hatred of Russia, the fear of being pulled down from the mountain top and their very deep pleonexia completely confound what remains of their ability to reason.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 21 2022 0:08 utc | 184

And if you understood Lavrov, it's not 300 km from the bridge but 300km to any part of Russia or any Oblast declaring Independence.
Odessa for example
And 300 km from any part of Transnitrie too?
Lavrov is a funny man 😂🤣😉

Posted by: La Bastille | Jul 20 2022 14:32 utc | 27
=====
You got a better plan wise guy? Common let's hear it funny guy.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Jul 21 2022 0:23 utc | 185

@William Verick

"Dizzy with Success" both the phrase and the publication, was by JV Stalin not VI Lenin

https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/stalin/works/1930/03/02.htm

Posted by: Gabriel in Ireland | Jul 21 2022 0:32 utc | 186

I've seen the term "US skin in the game" a few times.
Anyone care to guess how much farmland mineral concessions, loans etc US interested stand to loose with the inevitable conclusion of the hostilities?
Been left out of the discussion.

Posted by: Jpc | Jul 20 2022 21:25 utc | 152

Not at all, this issue has been covered here by many commenters.
relative to losing concessions I guess that was the value of the chips on the roulette wheel before the US provocation. it seems to me that whether the Empire apparently wins or as is more often the case "loses" its wars, the right people behind the scenes always win. Banks win, MIC wins, Multinational conglomerates win.

This is why its so hard to fathom what the US and allies are doing, winning in the obvious sense has never been their game.
Destroy or coup the country, privatise the assets, make it into a lawless shit hole for further exploitation of human trafficking and all the rest. Most of this has already been achieved in Ukraine, sadly. So the financiers of Empire have been winning according to their standards.

Russia is saying NO in solidarity with China and Iran and the rest of the world is coming on board.
It will be interesting to see how the hitherto lawless PTB will respond to this. Maybe as someone suggested earlier, even psychopaths eternally imprisoned in Willy Wonker's Chocolate factory yearn for order and meaning beyond being an eternal consumer ?

Probably not, but it will be interesting to see.

Posted by: K | Jul 21 2022 0:39 utc | 187

But th important issue is why Lavrov thinks threatening Ukraine's territorial integrity would force NATO to do this, especially since the Russian Federation cannot possibly carry out this threat without mobilizing a vastly larger force. Again, cf. the Iraq War.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2022 17:37 utc | 85
======
When that time comes, the RF will do what its got to do. By that time, the Ukraine forces will be depleted. Then the US and NATO will have to decide what it wants to do: Invade Ukraine or make a deal.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Jul 21 2022 0:41 utc | 188

fyi
I definitely want to know more details about this plan - a good idea to start with the reactionary Republic of Poland
Kadyroy is the head of the Chechen Republic


https://twitter.com/SNMilitary/status/1549903056397127680
MI NEWS @SNMilitary

We are already developing a plan of the demilitarization of NATO countries, and Poland is the first in line after the capture of Kiev. - Ramzan Kadyrov
6:44 PM · Jul 20, 2022

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jul 21 2022 0:47 utc | 189

i have been saying this about ostro for a while... ignore this person...

@ bevin, sushi and karlof1.... thanks for your posts today...

Posted by: james | Jul 21 2022 0:49 utc | 190

@ the pessimist | Jul 20 2022 22:05 utc | 165

i watched that today as well.. the situation around kherson is of concern... cheers..

Posted by: james | Jul 21 2022 0:50 utc | 191

James@195

I can't believe that Russia would let the UAF build up sufficient troops for an effective offensive in Kherson. Seems they are targeting relevant units already. The missile attacks are harder to prevent - mobile launchers...

Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 21 2022 0:57 utc | 192

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 20 2022 16:01 utc | 54

Thank you, I think your ideas and the evidence you cite is spot on. It reminds us that Russia has its own way of doing things and this may be the last time they will have to. West has given away the store and thinks that is fine.

They encouraged the west to do the following and the West complied with great vigor;
1. pay for their campaign. 2. get rid of all their weapons and give them to Russia to reverse engineer. 3. choose the victor in the conflict. 4. bankrupt themselves. 5. make the Euro Parliament to go into self destruct mode and make ever more sanctions and self abuse. 6. cause the Euro nations to abandon their imperfect union. 7. Fix the Iran issue by upgrading their status. 8. had a pledge drive for BRICS that has applications flying in. 9. Opened the north/south corridor. 10. engage Turki and get them to join BRICS. 11. break free from the slavery of the dollar. 12. to realize that the the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia are targets for rump nation status. 13. cause refugees to flood Europe. 14. arrange an alliance of friendly nations based on trade that appears to moving toward critical mass.

some of these things seem likely to happen.

Russia didn't want this SMO to be too lopsided fighting the best army in Europe. So they had the people that were being shelled for 8 years and their Russian national guard destroy the Ukrainian military methodically.
Sure there are plenty of other things the west is likely to try, but it is about what Russia wants to do now. I wonder if the 1991 line isn't one of those things Russia will demand in any peace treaty? Perhaps more, I wouldn't be surprised after 75 years of horrible abuse by the westerns.

Again, a brilliant piece.

Posted by: Tard | Jul 21 2022 0:57 utc | 193

" I can assure you even in Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, the depth of feeling against the Russian government and its troops is immense. Having unguided cluster munitions dropped in the middle of your home city killing civilians in the street and their homes, as has been done in Kharkiv in every month of this war (prior to the current one, thanks to Ukraine's local counter-offensive), will do wonders for removing any affection for the people pressing that particular button."
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 17:05 utc | 75
=======
Gee yeawoda, you seem to know a lot about Ukraine. Did you know there was a US led, organized, paid for coup in Kiev 1n 2014? Many people died in that coup and the elected government was ousted and replaced with far-right thugs in the pay of the UNITED STATES. This unelected rump government attacked the Russian speaking of people of Eastern Ukraine (and their language). In the Donbass regions, the Nazi's killed many innocent civilians, up to 13,000. The people in this region democratically voted to leave Ukraine, and why shouldn't they after the way the US thugs treated them, you would too. The rump government had plenty of opportunity (8 years) to prevent this conflict peacefully but chose not to. So shut your fu*king pie hole.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Jul 21 2022 1:05 utc | 194

https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/07/20/ukraine-the-long-view/

Posted by: Richard | Jul 21 2022 1:13 utc | 195

https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/07/20/ukraine-the-long-view/

Posted by: Richard | Jul 21 2022 1:14 utc | 196

But th important issue is why Lavrov thinks threatening Ukraine's territorial integrity would force NATO to do this, especially since the Russian Federation cannot possibly carry out this threat without mobilizing a vastly larger force. Again, cf. the Iraq War.
steven t johnson | Jul 20 2022 17:37 utc | 85

Ukraine? what territorial integrity since 2014? You mean 51st State of the USA?
What threat?
Isn't Lavrov simply stating the bleeding obvious as per Minsk and all previous broken Nato promises?

If Nato continues its push toward Russia via long range missiles Russia will push back to acceptable boundaries.

Posted by: K | Jul 21 2022 1:16 utc | 197

This was posted a few hours ago

"WATCH LIVE: Defense Secretary Austin and Gen. Milley hold news briefing following Ukraine meeting"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc9dVaQhIS8

Stats say streamed live 8 hours ago and it is part of PBS which has 3.22 M subscribers

I have watched it off and on and am now about half way through. It is 35 min long.

It is fucking unbelievable. I can't believe that they are so stupid.

The war was lost several weeks ago and they are saying that Ukraine can win it?

Yes they say that it is a treat to the rules based world, yes it sure is.

US has screwed up big time and don't know when to fold and walk away.

Comedy script? Delusion? .. .......

Posted by: Don Midwest | Jul 21 2022 1:17 utc | 198


You know these trolls probably get stickers based on the rise they get from the crowd. Several of you really kept the ball rolling today.

Posted by: Quanah | Jul 21 2022 1:18 utc | 199

there have been 150K views so far

Posted by: DonMidwestt | Jul 21 2022 1:18 utc | 200

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