Lavrov - Extended Range Weapons In Ukraine Will Lead To More Loss Of Its Land
Today the foreign minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov, announced the extension of the land in Ukraine that Russia intends to capture.
It will depend on the maximum weapon range of the systems the Ukraine will have under its control.
Via RIA Novosti (machine translation):
Lavrov: deliveries of long-range weapons to Kyiv will expand the geography of the special operation
MOSCOW, July 20 - RIA Novosti. If Ukraine receives long-range weapons from Western countries, then the geographical tasks of the special operation of the Russian troops will change, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT and the Rossiya Segodnya media group."The President said very clearly, as you quoted him - denazification, demilitarization in the sense that there are no threats to our security, military threats from the territory of Ukraine, this task remains," the minister stressed.
At the same time, he recalled that during the meeting of the negotiators in Istanbul at the end of March, the situation on this issue was significantly different.
"Now the geography is different. It is far from being only the DPR and LPR, it is also the Kherson region, the Zaporozhye region and a number of other territories, and this process continues, and continues consistently and persistently," the head of Russian diplomacy added.
He pointed out that as the West, in impotent rage or in a desire to make the situation as bad as possible, pumps more and more long-range weapons into Ukraine, for example, HIMARS, the geographical objectives of the special operation will move even further from the current line.
“Because we cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Zelensky will control or whoever replaces him to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the territory of those republics that have declared their independence, those who want their future decide for yourself," he concluded.
Note to Washington: If you deliver HIMARS missile to Ukraine with an extended (300km instead of 80km) range, Russia will have to move further into Ukraine to secure its own and the Donbas republics borders.
This comes after calls in Ukraine to hit the bridge over the Kerch street that connects Crimea with Russia with extended range HIMARS missiles. The nearest point of the area which the Ukraine still holds is some 260 kilometer away from the bridge.
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There are also rumors that the Ukraine has already received such missiles. Via Naked Capitalism:
Zelensky Orders Troops to Hold Siversk Despite Heavy Losses, Purges More Officials; Putin in Tehran - Alexander Mercouris.Note in particular starting at 10:10, Mercouris reports that DPR official Eduard Barsurin has stated that Ukraine has received the 300 km missiles for the HIMARS. Ukraine has made clear it intends to hit targets in Crimea, which Russia regards as Russian territory, particularly the Kerch bridge. Mercouris thinks it would take an awful lot of missiles to do that, as in more than Ukraine has now, but any strikes at Crimea would lead to very forceful retaliation by Russia. Ukraine is smoking something strong if it thinks that will lead the West to do meaningfully more for Ukraine than it is doing now.
Mercouris is wrong when he claims that the long range HIMARS missile would only have a small warhead as it must be fired out of one of the 6 tubes of the regular HIMARS canister. The long range missile is the ATACMS. It comes in a different canister which has only one tube for a missile with a diameter of 610 mm. It can be fired by all systems that usually fire the 6 missile canister.
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The version of the MFM-140 ATACMS missile that would most likely be used is the M57 (ATACMS TACMS 2000):
It carries the 500 lb WDU-18/B penetrating high explosive blast fragmentation warhead of the US Navy's Harpoon anti-ship missile, which was redesignated as WAU-23/B when used in ATACMS.
It is not the ideal warhead to attack a hard target but it is significant enough to at least heavily damage the Kerch bridge.
If it should be used Ukraine will lose all land that is within 300 kilometer of Crimea, the Donbas and Luhansk oblasts and Ukraine's northern border with Russia. Odessa is only 180 kilometer from Crimea and Kiev some 200 kilometer from the nearest Russian border. If we take Lavrov's words seriously those cities would come under Russian occupation should an extended range HIMARS missile be used.
Lavrov named several Ukrainian oblasts that are already on Russia's wish list:
It is far from being only the DPR and LPR, it is also the Kherson region, the Zaporozhye region and a number of other territories, ..
The number of other territories will have to include the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts to protect the border of Donetsk and Luhansk from longer reaching weapons. Mykolaiv and Odessa may have to be taken to protect Russia's oil and gas installations west of Crimea. The Ukraine has already attacked those with longer range weapons.
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If I were a Ukrainian decision maker I would take Lavrov's threat very seriously.
The longest reaching weapon that the U.S. and Great Britain have delivered to Ukraine so far is the Harpoon anti ship missile with a range of 124 kilometer which is near to the 120 kilometer range that Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles have. The Russian defense ministry had previously claimed that at least two Harpoon launchers had been destroyed. According to its daily report another one was eliminated yesterday near Usatovo in the Odessa Region.
Posted by b on July 20, 2022 at 13:18 UTC | Permalink
next page »Looks like the HIMARS have become Ukraine's (America's) V-weapon. How ironic.
Posted by: RobertNW | Jul 20 2022 13:37 utc | 2
Is it possible he means that Russia may have to move further west than Ukraine?
Let's face it, the only regime change required is North America & EU(+UK).
Posted by: WTFUD | Jul 20 2022 13:40 utc | 3
Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia does not consider itself to be at war with NATO. But actually, NATO, let’s say the US, is at war. Russia makes steady, though slow progress in Ukraine, and there are great risks when the U.S. continues to deliver more sophisticated weapons.
Traitor Lavrov is anglo agent.
Russia has never vetoed in resolutions passed by anglos in last 25 years against Russian allies.
On the same way Russia could never pass any resolution which anglos did not like.
Russia went along sanction s against Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Afganistan.
Today Russia is reaping the award of what useless ineffective foreign minister lavrov and his minion kurkchin in UNO did.
May 2022
Why has Russia been sleeping?
Only two months ago putin and lavrov was saying that Russia can have good relation with Britain!. The same Britain that has plotted this war like others against Russia!!
As England wants to break Russia, why does Russia not destabilise England through oppressed minorities in England and with Scottish help. Why does Russia not remotely attack England and kill her army navy and airforce?
After destroying England, Russia will have killed 95 percent of her real enemies who are english and not europeans.
Russian inferiority complex before pirate English nation is major cause of Russia getting attacked again and again.
Putin has proved himself useless as war president ever since Donbass debacle when in Feb 2015 he allowed, under lavrov suggestion, to let British mercenaries get out safely from Debaltsevo couldron and then brought Minsk 2.
Posted by: Soi | Jul 20 2022 13:50 utc | 5
If the range of the HIMARs from Orikiv to the Kerch bridge is 260 and Orikiv is about 50 kilometres from Zaporozhye city (which it is) then we need to draw the trajectory from Orikiv to the Crimean end of the bridge so that we can get the extra 10 kilometres and therefore Zaporozhye will need to be claimed. That would make me a Russian citizen in a couple of months and thats alright with me.
Posted by: Bluedog57 | Jul 20 2022 13:52 utc | 6
It has become part of the rules-based order that no country unfriendly to the US can be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Aside from Russia withdrawing nuclear weapons from Cuba in 1962, both Russia and China have agreed. They both engage in economic sanctions on Korea, even if not totally enough to cause the physical collapse of the Korean people (as yet, anyhow.) But conventional weapons is a huge change. A multipolarity in which no smaller countries bordering the key large countries can be allowed to possess even conventional weapons because they may possibly pose a threat is not what most people gassing about multipolarity mean. The usual version of multipolarity is an arrangement of equal sovereignty---except for having nuclear weapons, I suppose that's the equivalent of being a permanent member of the Security Council of the UN---is equal and sovereign nations. And none of the multipolarity fans profess that sovereignty doesn't include having an army. In a capitalist world, of course, armies get used. So multipolarity is a world of wars.
The correct and principled response is that there should be peace. In this particular case, the fascists have fought a war against their own people, albeit Russian-speakers resisting fascism, for eight long years and refused to make peace all that time. That means of course the true aggressors are the fascists and the NATO imperialists behind them. But of course most who moralize about sovereignty also insist the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, including Crimea. Most ostensible leftists agree with this, making this a farcical replay of Social Democrats endorsing their nation's war in 1914. National liberation is a violation of sovereignty, long ago as the American Revolution which raped the British Empire, and now, and tomorrow. Sovereignty a la Lavrov though, where not even the possibility of a threat is to be allowed to the more-equal countries, is truly shocking.
But there's only so much use in contemplating the rights and wrongs, feasibility and necessity have their roles to play in any analysis. I have no idea what the Russian endgame could possibly be. They are not fighting NATO directly, and don't want to, so far as I can see. That's why such limited forces have been committed to a mere military operation, however special it may be. The problem for Russia is that their true enemy, the US and its subordinates, are not going to give up. Even if Russia were to conquer the entire Ukraine without a new war breaking out on the new borders with mad dog "countries" like Lithuania and Poland, the one hand behind your back campaign Russia is fighting is nuts. US general Shinseki (if I remember the name correctly) was cashiered for pointing out the obvious, that the limited forces committed by Bush et al to conquer Iraq were utterly insufficient. The result was a long war, humiliations by the Islamic State, meager results. Russia in Ukraine is doing the same thing if conquest is the plan. It is baffling what else the Russians may have in mind. The schwerpunkt, the key point, in the war is not even in Ukraine!
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2022 13:52 utc | 7
Watching events unfold since 24 February and trying to tie them in with the unbroken pattern of history, and while it is difficult to distinguish fact from falsehood in the contemporary, it is still unsettling to see the consistent similarities with the past: the lead up to the first two world wars, and the way every empire in history has eventually faced the conflict it was always fighting to avoid – its own collapse. Everyone does face that fateful conflict: yet empires do not see this because they are fighting over power, but power is an illusion. They are deluded. If they continue down this course in Ukraine – and each action and reaction brings WW III closer – they will plunge the world into destruction. Sometimes it is better to give a bit of ground – a buffer zone – to avoid the war no one in their right minds want and no one can win. But it requires everyone to accept the truth of history.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Jul 20 2022 13:53 utc | 8
US cares so much about Lavrov's opinion that they've attacked Zaporozhye NPP today with a drone and have announced 4 more himars to Ukr (probably already there). Coincidence with Lavrov's interview?
You know that an npp exploding will kill the local population, which nato tries to exterminate since 2014, make a large region unusable for Russia and will also seriously affect Belarus from the radiation. Three birds with a single stone.
Well thought strategy from Shoigu: keep the borders wide open, railways and roads almost intact and the puppet government working. What can go wrong?
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 13:55 utc | 9
Bluedog57 @7
Even if that doesn't happen, you can still apply for Russian citizenship: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-decree-gives-all-ukrainians-path-russian-citizenship-2022-07-11/
Posted by: aquileia | Jul 20 2022 13:59 utc | 10
If I were a Ukrainian decision maker I would take Lavrov's threat very seriously.
Based on the Ukraine/Nato/US behavior to date, it would be reasonable to assume that "provoking" has been the game all along.
The real question may be; What is the correct minimal provocation, that will return the response intend to further the West's goals?
Posted by: James Cook | Jul 20 2022 14:02 utc | 11
First, as many have pointed out here, the current Ukraine government does not run Ukraine and hasn't since 2014. The Western Deep State makes all the decisions and uses Ukrainian nationalism to provide cannon fodder for it project of destroying Russia as an independent country. This project will last indefinitely as long as NATO remains whole. Even if Russia takes all of Ukraine the war will not end.
In a recent article ex-CIA officer Philip Giraldi wrote that he believes (and he is fairly well connected) that there are definite "boots on the ground" of NATO military paramilitaries (SAS, CIA and others) who are directing, organizing and supervising (behind the front lines at the moment) this war on the Ukraine side. I don't believe this Western Deep State expects to "win" the war in Ukraine but expects to, in the long run, re-militarize Europe by using the even more Mighty Wurlitzer to stupefy the marks of Europe as it has done in Ukraine. We have to remember that the funds for this whole project is almost unlimited. The only fly in the ointment is just as the West is on the verge of a very long war with Russia the only is the ever more massive level of corruption (in the political process) that is exploding particularly in Europe.
We also have to remember that the Mighty Wurlitzer operates on the basis that human beings require meaning to thrive as individuals and what is left of communities. A long war against a potent enemy or enemies creates meaning for, in particular, Europeans to find a purpose other than hedonism/materialism (Americans are becoming immune to the worst of the bullshit so there's hope). Witness the fanatical reaction of Germans to COVID and their clear enthusiasm for authoritarian measures to deal with managing the disease. I would go so far as to say that Germans embraced this authoritarianism more to bring meaning to their lives than actually manage the disease. I think the same holds true for much of Europe--they yearn for the limitations on their "no-limits" lifestyles. It is clear that no matter what you and I may claim as reality for the true-believer reality is irrelevant to the requirement of meaning and myth.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Jul 20 2022 14:05 utc | 12
Let's put it simple.
When Russia with allies reach administrative borders, they have to go 70km further, which is reach of long range artilery.
If in the mean time, this reach will surpass 300km, even further.
So then, when the day will come, that west realised, that there are no more soldiers to send in death, and negotiations will be allowd, Russia can give this km-s away.
Plain and simple.
Ukraine was the biggest country in Europe by teritory. ( Except european part of Russia, but they don't count ).
Now no more.
Posted by: preseren3 | Jul 20 2022 14:05 utc | 13
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (20072022)
As a result of a strike by high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the depot of rocket and artillery weapons of the 14th mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement of Soledar of the Donetsk People's Republic, 19 armored vehicles and up to 40 nationalists were destroyed.
In the area of the settlement of Usatovo, Odessa region, a US-made Harpoon missile launcher was destroyed by high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
High-precision long-range sea-based weapons struck the temporary deployment point of the 35th Marine Brigade in the village of Dachnoye, Odessa region, where reservists were trained for the Armed Forces. More than 200 personnel were destroyed, as well as more than ten units of foreign-made military equipment.
As part of the counter-battery struggle, five platoons of Grad multiple launch rocket systems of the 48th and 58th motorized infantry brigades, six artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers and nine artillery platoons of D-30 guns were hit during the day in the areas of the settlements of Kurakhovo, Novomikhailovka, Konstantinovka and Georgievka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, rocket troops and artillery hit during the day: seven control points, including units of the 63rd mechanized and 61st Infantry brigades in the areas of the settlements of Yavkino, Bereznegovatoye, Visunsk, Kaluga of the Mykolaiv region, 128th Mountain assault Brigade in the Verkhnekamenskoye district of the Donetsk People's Republic The Republic, as well as the 92nd mechanized brigade in the Dolzhik district of the Kharkiv region.
Eight warehouses with rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were destroyed in the areas of Paraskovievka, Konstantinovka, Artemovsk of the Donetsk People's Republic, Novovorontsovka of the Kherson region and Ternovatoye of the Zaporozhye region, as well as two fuel depots of the 54th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kurakhovo area of the Donetsk People's Republic.
Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed two aircraft of the Air Forces of Ukraine in an air battle: one MiG-29 – in the area of the settlement of Snigirevka, Mykolaiv region, and one Su-25 – in the Dobropolye area of the Donetsk People's Republic.
Four Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by Russian air defense means during the day in the areas of the settlements of Blagodatovka, Yavorskoye, Kharkiv region, Zugres of the Donetsk People's Republic.
In addition, in the districts of Vasilenkovo, Kharkiv region, as well as Novoraysk, Krasnoselskoye, Stepnoye, Taras Shevchenko, Kherson region, nine shells of the Hurricane multiple rocket launcher system were intercepted.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 259 aircraft, 143 helicopters, 1572 unmanned aerial vehicles, 356 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4135 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 760 multiple rocket launchers, 3166 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 4410 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: Summary20072022 | Jul 20 2022 14:16 utc | 14
Soi | Jul 20 2022 13:50 utc | 5
See? Another concerned psycho with bad mouth and bad feelings...
Posted by: Doremi | Jul 20 2022 14:17 utc | 15
Chris Cosmos | Jul 20 2022 14:05 utc | 13
"We have to remember that the funds for this whole project is almost unlimited. "
Not unlimited anymore + very cheap energy and food are gone for them.
What they can still do is terrorism. They haven't started yet to shoot down civilian airplanes using the thousands of manpads nato has sent. Why you think they are so many? For the 5 Migs that fly in Ukr? No, it's for future use, like the javelins will be for trains or trucks.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 14:20 utc | 16
Unstated is that the form of the SMO will also change if Ukraine continues to attack Russian territory.
Once Donbass is liberated, further Russian attacks will be punitive raids deep into Ukrainian-held territory with significantly more damage to civilian infrastructure (since Russia will no longer care to incorporate the territory).
Posted by: Tom E. Weiss | Jul 20 2022 14:22 utc | 17
I have an image of a 315km radius centered on the Kerch bridge. To secure a safe buffer, this will require the liberating: Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and Kramatorsk. Liberating Odessa would be beneficial in other matters of security but not needed for securing the bridge.
https://imgbox.com/5f0Q8GWF
Ukraine is doing crazier and crazier stunts if this story is true Ukrainian Drones attack Nuke plant. I wonder how the Europeans feel about the Ukrainians risking a nuclear disaster on their doorstep.
Posted by: Kadath | Jul 20 2022 14:25 utc | 19
Now, you understood why Russia let US/NATO pumping long range "wonderwaffen" in 404.
Let the children play
Posted by: La Bastille | Jul 20 2022 14:26 utc | 20
Liberating Odessa would be beneficial in other matters of security but not needed for securing the bridge.
Posted by: Milton | Jul 20 2022 14:24 utc | 19
---
What is keeping Ukraine from putting missiles on a boat except for lack of access to the Black Sea?
Posted by: too scents | Jul 20 2022 14:27 utc | 21
German newspapers (TAZ) already claim that there is need to send NATO troops to Ukrain, which means, it will cause (and they want and propagate) a direct war NATO-Russia, and the probability that this expands soon to a use of Atom weapons is high. Words are "before winter".
Posted by: Peter | Jul 20 2022 14:28 utc | 22
Is it possible he means that Russia may have to move further west than Ukraine?
Posted by: WTFUD | Jul 20 2022 13:40 utc | 3
Lavrov, being the most respectable spokesperson I've ever seen, well, I would take his comment to include at least at this emerging stage to include all of Ukraine as a most likely completion of the SMO. NATO can't justify any donations with continued kinetic actions against RF citizens outside the current war zone of Ukraine. Until they do...
Posted by: ERing46Z | Jul 20 2022 14:29 utc | 23
If I were Putin, I’d level to the ground Zelensky’s residence to show everyone that I mean business.
Posted by: Billy | Jul 20 2022 14:29 utc | 24
@ Milton - targets will not be the bridge soon, but the other parts of the Krim, so for defense the radius need to be much more
Posted by: peter | Jul 20 2022 14:31 utc | 25
Independance Day
And if you understood Lavrov, it's not 300 km from the bridge but 300km to any part of Russia or any Oblast declaring Independence.
Odessa for example
And 300 km from any part of Transnitrie too?
Lavrov is a funny man 😂🤣😉
Posted by: La Bastille | Jul 20 2022 14:32 utc | 26
If I were Putin, I’d level to the ground Zelensky’s residence to show everyone that I mean business.Posted by: Billy | Jul 20 2022 14:29 utc | 25
Zey and Joe are two very useful imbeciles. Let them play...
Posted by: La Bastille | Jul 20 2022 14:34 utc | 27
Putin stood with Ahmadinejad in Tehran when Iran had not much to offer and was under serious threat of attack. He now stands with Raisi when Iran has much to offer. That’s called strategic thinking. Any western chimp have this kind of prescience?
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Jul 20 2022 14:36 utc | 28
Bastille - 28 (or was it 1789?)
Depending on how you interpret this reasoning, it can be a funny non-ending wave of expansion, because as soon as you've secured a territory enough, it turns out that this territory you just secured is actually threatened by some missiles 200 km ahead. So unless Russia/Putin/Lavrov actually states which parts will be annexed or become independent, then there's no limit. As a bonus, you can even apply that reasoning beyond Ukraine until you hit Galway, Lisbon and Stavanger.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 20 2022 14:40 utc | 29
G7+Zey+VdL+StolzIzberg, a good choice for a Remake
thieves whose planned heist of a jewelry store goes terribly wrong.Happy Ending whith "Zey Pink, the only uninjured person, takes the diamonds and flees". But Russian SWO Police will clean the mess. As always...
Posted by: La Bastille | Jul 20 2022 14:48 utc | 30
Why stop at Odessa and Mykolaiv, what will be "left" of a rump Ukraine is gonna be nothing but (missile and nazi) trouble.
Posted by: Hannibal | Jul 20 2022 14:49 utc | 31
A statement like this, by the Russian minister of Foreign Affairs, carries weight.
Howver, the website of the RIA/Novosti press agency is blocked (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/350 of 1 March 2022).
Does this mean that in a couple of years' time, European voters might claim "Wir haben es nicht gewußt"?
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2022 14:50 utc | 32
Nice post, b, and great comments in this thread (as always) especially on the eternal 200 km problem. I believe Andrei Martyanov outright stated that RT is fifth column? Slight reference to it here in his post from June:
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/06/ah-rt-also-noted-wink-wink.html
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jul 20 2022 14:58 utc | 33
Putin stood with Ahmadinejad in Tehran when Iran had not much to offer and was under serious threat of attack. He now stands with Raisi when Iran has much to offer. That’s called strategic thinking. Any western chimp have this kind of prescience?
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Jul 20 2022 14:36 utc | 29
Preliminaries are almost over and pieces are being placed on the chessboard for the final matches. The US/EU/UK/NATO block must be disappointed more of the rest of the world did not join with them, only 1.5 billion vs 6.5 billion.
I am disappointed my country Canada, did not sit this one out. There is no way my kids are signing up.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 20 2022 14:58 utc | 34
re: Zaporizhia NPP, what I've seen looks like 2 Polish "Warmate" loitering munitions w/3-lb payload were used in the vicinity, but not so close to the plant itself (maybe half a klick?). I hope Ukraine avoids attacking anywhere near that plant, even if Russians are based in the area. Even if the risk is tiny - not worth it. One of the more shocking episodes of this war, to me, was watching a livestream from a camera at the plant while it was originally captured by Russia. They were absolutely blasting the hell out of one of the administrative buildings at the plant with an autocannon. Totally insane to see in real time, and extraordinarily irresponsible.
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 15:01 utc | 35
From the beginning of the SMO Russia has had no choice but to pacify every square meter of Ukraine. HIMARS has made this fact so obvious that Russia's leaders are at liberty to reveal more of the scope of the SMO to the global and Russian publics.
The leaders of every NATO-aligned country near Russia should be watching and asking themselves whether they want to be next.
As for the frequently mentioned "slow" progress of the SMO, it bears repeating that the SMO's progress should not be measured in terms of geography.
Ukraine/US/NATO have turned the SMO border areas into target rich environments, which suits Russia's purposes very well. Russians are happy to let enemies do foolish things.
Posted by: Sam Bullard | Jul 20 2022 15:03 utc | 36
MoD of Russia is regularly reporting the destruction of platoons of Grad MLRS and/or platoons of
artillery. Anybody an idea of how many units/launchers/guns are in such platoons? Are they possibly
organised the NATO-way?
Posted by: DutchZ | Jul 20 2022 15:07 utc | 37
With the UN SecGen prepared to mediate, the solution for Russia after taking part of the 300km buffer zone will be to convert the buffer zone to a UN-monitored DMZ that can revert to Ukraine upon appropriate conditions after two generations. Otherwise the buffer zone is a quagmire, as most is not majority-Russian. Ideally a DMZ does not include cities, mainly agricultural or waste land. Questions are Russia’s need to hold Kharkiv and especially Odessa, and the link to largely-Russian Transnistria, and whether the DMZ must extend along the Ukraine-Russia border.
Posted by: Sam F | Jul 20 2022 15:09 utc | 38
It was once "to the last Ukrainian," now it seems it'll be "to the last European." I can picture it now, Blinken and Nudelman exhorting Irish grandmothers in wheelchairs and Portuguese priests to attend the front line, inferior Western weaponry in hand, awaiting a guaranteed grotesque death. And for what? The desires of a small clique of ethnic supremacists holding the United States hostage. Not only ridiculous; pathetic. Popular Europe really needs to rise up and overthrow the political whores in service to the American Empire.
Posted by: Rod | Jul 20 2022 15:22 utc | 39
To understand the aims of the Russian counterattack simply close read Moscow’s peace treaty proposal from December 2021. It’s all there
Posted by: Exile | Jul 20 2022 15:26 utc | 40
Update to #37, one of the warmates looks like it hit closer to the plant than the other:
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1549776189899915270/photo/2
Too close for comfort IMO, if one of those things gets jammed who knows where it ends up. Getting blasted by the Russians was bad enough, let the place generate energy in peace
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 15:29 utc | 41
We all knew before the SMO started that a chief US goal was to shut down Nordstream 2.
So how can it be a surprise that Germany is suffering and will suffer much worse?
The US Empire is already collapsing also.
Russia does not have long to wait until Ukraine will not be a problem anymore. When the US/NATO collapse, Ukraine will be able to make peace. If I were Ukrainian I would also want to be on the side which cares about its citizens.
It is obvious that the western side does not care about its citizens.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 20 2022 15:29 utc | 42
@ Sam F | Jul 20 2022 15:09 utc | 40
Russia already has almost all of the Black Sea and will control Odessa one way or another. Transnistria will be connected at the border, not isolated anymore. There is no other way.
My choice would be to not leave anything called Ukr on the map, it gives the wrong message.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 15:33 utc | 43
Lavrov appears to be talking about a withdrawal of NATO missile bases to the borders of NATO in 1991. In other words he is anticipating that the US will finally-and thousands of deaths later- honour the many pledges made to Gorbachev and others to the effect that NATO would not use the reunification of Germany, which involved the withdrawal of several dozen divisions of the Red Army, to bring forces to Russia's borders.
The history of the Russian empire, from Peter the Great onwards, has always been about securing the country's defences, pushing aggressors back from Russian borders. That object remains and, after thirty years of increasingly audacious advances, it will involve some considerable re-adjustment. This will not necessarily involve geographical border changes. The underlying problem is not the proximity of Poles, Balts, Rumanians etc but the control over these nations of CIA inspired crypto fascists and imperialist agents.
The notion that Poles, Latvians, Rumanians, Ukrainians Slovaks etc hate Russia is nonsense. The reality is that the former Warsaw Pact countries have been systematically corrupted to the point where their governing institutions are dominated by the United States, as is the situation in western europe.
What it all adds up to is a public and systematic schooling of international opinion to the effect that the United States can no longer impose its whims on other nations, unless Russia or China allows it to do so. This has become clearer since the Libyan debacle, when the US was able to persuade the UNSC to allow its operation to go ahead. Since then in Bolivia, Syria and Venezuela, not to mention in the Sahal, regime changing operations have stalled. That could be the message from Pakistan too.
International momentum has reversed: the tide is now running against the Empire.
Lavrov is simply attempting to make this clear-not always an easy thing to do- to the ruling classes of the world, so that, particularly, the military and the deep states realise that they can no longer depend upon the US to protect them from their populations and the reckoning that is coming.
Posted by: bevin | Jul 20 2022 15:52 utc | 45
People here seem to be ignoring Lenin's dictum, "Let's not get dizzy with success." It will be believable that Russia aims to conquer Odessa, Kharkov and Dnieperpetrovsk when it declares a general mobilization and calls up enough troops to conduct the military operations that would be needed to accomplish something like that. That may happen, but it hasn't happened yet and there is no sign that it will. Until then, talk of "taking" Odessa or Kharkov is akin to the masturbation fantasies Martyanov decries.
Posted by: William Verick | Jul 20 2022 15:57 utc | 46
Belarus needs to be included in the buffer zone idea, meaning most of Ukraine must be demilitarized as initially speculated. Lavrov omitted Belarus in his statement because it's not his task to speak for it. But given Lukashenko's statements, it would be a vast oversight not to include Belarus. And as any map will show, that means all of Ukraine must be cleansed of offensive weapons.
Currently, there's only the video of Lavrov's RT interview available, aside from news reports based on it. RT has it with English voice-over.
Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Jul 20 2022 13:53 utc | 9
Speaking of fascism, this piece provides a little background of the movement in the 1930's (along with making tentative prediction about US in 2024).
https://matthewehret.substack.com/p/why-assume-there-will-be-a-2024-election
yenwoda #37
You don't mean the fire that the Ukros laid/staged in a pretty cowardly fashion to the admin/training building before leaving, do you? Please just link to that video and let this community tell you what part was doctored.
As for the " ...totally insane...extraordinarily irresponsible..." attack (what expertise exactly qualifies you to give such statements?), I start with a video that UA's Energoatom published via the Guardian one day after RF took control of the plant. In summary: A* broken window, a* shell and a* letter-sized hole in the roof of a walkway. (a* stands for ONE here). Rather indicative for the absence of serious fighting.
Posted by: OttoE | Jul 20 2022 15:58 utc | 49
Sorry, last one was in response to:
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2022 13:52 utc | 8
Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 20 2022 15:58 utc | 50
USA/NATO know how to provoke Russia, so that it over-extends itself (RAND Corporation plan).
Russia knows USA/NATO are provoking it, so it uses the provocation in its benefit, to stop USA/NATO in Ukraine, advance its territory further West.
When someone doesn't want to be provoked, it doesn't say what the answer/response will be.
When someone wants to be provoked (because it has already planned the response), it says "if you do A, I will do B". That acts as a trap so that the other sides actually makes the provocation.
The HIMARS exemple is great to see this in reality. Russia know USA/NATO's goal is to provoke Russia, so Russia (having a plan to answer that provocation that fulfills Russia's goals) says "if you send HIMARS ammo with 300 Km range, we'll have to conquer +300 Km inside Ukraine.
Then USA/NATO fall on the trap and actually announce that HIMARS ammo with 300 Km range, thinking they are successfully provoking Russia to over-extend itself.
There are many consequences from this and again, as in the sanctions self shoot in the foot, the West is not seeing beyond the immediate. But Russia is:
- it becomes clearer that the West is the one escalating the conflict, and that creates/increases division in the West's society;
- Kremlin holds current high support for the SMO, and gets even more support, and prepares Russian public opinion to the justified escalation;
- USA/NATO allies/vassals get more divided and there's increased exhaustion from sanctions/war;
-Russia's allies (ex: China) and neutrals (ex: India) become even more understanding of Russia's position and actions to defend itself from USA/NATO's provocation.
And so on. In the Western media (CIA/Pentagon agents or currupted by their money) a possible strike of HIMARS with 300 Km range will be presented as another "win" for Ukraine. Russia's response will be presented as an increase in its "unjustified and unprovoked aggression".
But after so much time escalating and sending weapons, after France 2 images of the truth in Lisichansk (Ukrainians with open arms welcoming their Russian friends/liberators), the Western narrative is harder to sell, and the result will be more people distrusting Western MainStreamMedia.
If we add to this Serbia's President words about a possible peace deal handed by Russia after all Donetsk Republic is liberated, and then the West still insists on war and Ukraine's regime still accepts to be the territory for the proxy war to continue, then that's the game changer Russia is waiting for.
Instead of ridiculous pro-NATO protests (as we saw in the first month of the SMO), we'll see pro-Peace and anti-USA/NATO (those already happened in Italy, Greece etc, but were a minority or were omitted in MSM).
And more importantly, we may see something happen in Kiev in favor of Russian goals: regime change. The UkroNazis are now too strong/implanted in the system, and can avoid any popular unrest. But if the unrest comes from the military, now being treated by Zelensky as cannon fodder for his anglo-saxon friends' ambitions, then not even the Azov/Aidar/RightSektor/etc in the higher positions of the regime (ex: in the National Guard and SBU) will be able to stop it.
I imagine then (by September maybe) that Ukraine will the Zelensky arrested/assassinated and the head of the military will be the interin President.
He will set as priority saving lives, civilian and military, and therefore sign the Peace Treaty handed to him by Russia, with not only the current Russian conquests, but also either some more land, or a political deal that will make Ukraine another Belarus, totally under Russian control, and only apparently independent.
All thr debt Ukraine has to the West (including the current lend-lease) will be void. Ukraine will develop under Russian umbrella. Bye-bye EU membership. Hello EAEU. Bye-bye NATO, hello CSTO: Russian missile launchers (with nuclear capabilities) right on Poland and Slovakia and Romania borders. Game over.
And what about Banderistan? I expect Russia/Kiev's new regime will have an open border policy to let Banderites run away to Poland. That way, only one country is lost to that kind of sh*t. The ones who stay, thinking about "resistence" in the form of terrorism, will be met by Russia/Kiev's new regime in a Chenchenya style. It will take many years, but the end result of peace and integration with the elimination of all violent Banderites is just a matter of time.
This is why, from my point of view, Russia's strategy is so moderate and so based on counter-measures, only answering to escalation, and not escalating by itself. The Kremlin is already thinking about the path to the check-mate since at least 2014. While the West can only look at ways to use the pawns as cannon fodder in the next move in ridiculous attempts to provoke the other player.
And as some opinion makers from China said, this Russian victory is essential for the rest of the world (85% of thr Non-Western population). A defeated USA/NATO in Ukraine are the best way to avoid the Taiwan issue from also becoming a military conflict. And China already started demanding that the Anglo-Saxons+NATO's more active vassals start being punished for their crimes in Middle East (Iraq), North Africa (Libya), and Central Asia (Afghanistan).
These are the words of justice the world wants to hear.
And now Iran also says: "NATO was stopped by Russia in Ukraine". It's not "will be". it's "WAS". It already happened, and the rest of the world already saw it. No one else will ever be afraid of being invaded by the "western values"...
A total of 51 of 55 African leaders even refused to listen what Zelensky had to say.
In the Summit of (some) Americas, 11 leaders refused to go to USA, and the others just went there to basicaly say "f*ck you" in the face of Joe Biden. The only one repeating CIA/Pentagon propaganda, was the puppet in Colombia. But meanwhile even that one was ousted by the people that voted for the 1st time in a Left-wing President. They're tired of NeoCon+NeoLib politica, and are no longer afraid.
In August come the military exercises of Russia, Iran, China, and others, in Venezuela.
And all this is just a start, while "Russia is isolated". Now imagine when it's not...
It's New World Order chess. And the West no longer makes the rules. Check. Mate.
Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 20 2022 16:01 utc | 51
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2022 14:50 utc | 34
C'mon, circumventing DNS-blocks is not a big deal today, pretending not to have known anything is asking for the "Golden Lame-Excuse Award". Better start reading RT in public on a, say, 12" tablet and apply for the "Balls of Steel"-Award ;-)
"Wo Unrecht zu Recht wird, wird Widerstand zur Pflicht" (Where injustice becomes right, resistance becomes a duty)
Posted by: TomD | Jul 20 2022 16:02 utc | 52
addendum to #52
The empty shell (not the bullet/payload, as one would expect) at the place of damage lacks credibility as well. However, I'm not an expert in these matters.
Posted by: OttoE | Jul 20 2022 16:04 utc | 53
Posted by: albagen | Jul 20 2022 15:12 utc | 41
-----------
Oh, the c...sucker is back...😋
Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 16:07 utc | 54
@OttoE, sure. This is the stream I was watching live when it happened. Look at around 3:11:00 for example if you'd like to check the accuracy of your description of the damage, although there is a lot of firing throughout. At one point, emergency vehicles arrive and are forced to turn away. It was claimed that they were fired on (warning shots?) but that isn't clear from the video so who knows. I am not an expert, but perfectly comfortable stating that what is shown is insanely irresponsible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYUT36YGOh8
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 16:09 utc | 55
Sooner or later, Russia might have to end this war lite and start a real war.
For instance, does it still make sense to enable civilian life to continue just like that?! Why not stop electricity and telecommunication in Ukraine until October?
And keep any and all fuel from getting into Ukraine. Without fuel and electricity, there is no way to transport weapons from the West to the East.
Posted by: Nico | Jul 20 2022 16:09 utc | 56
Zelensky's loud accusations against high-ranking SBU officials have grounds for such statements. Indeed, a number of high-ranking generals of the Ukrainian counterintelligence, even before the resignation of Bakanov, were seized, as they say, "hot". That's just "pidozra" in working for the "enemy and the Kremlin" is combined with completely different acts of the associates of the ex-head of the SBU who have made a mistake.
Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 16:11 utc | 57
Great Post, Bernhard.
Here's RUS_MoD's Latest Daily for those unaware:
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/2830
Recently, these Briefings are mentioning Strikes in Odessa, Kharkov, and other Regions outside of Donetsk(which are being "Ground Up" by Close Air Support, Army Aviation, and Artillery.
IMHO, Donetsk will be "Territorially Liberated" before Major Offenses are conducted and other Liberations and Secessions are "Acknowledged" by RUS+Allies.
East/NovoRussia will Formulate, while the West will be Occupied for awhile. Zelenskyy may flee to POL; and AFU may launch MLRS/HIMARS/BarrelArtillery from POL along with FalseFlags NATO may plan.
Anyone interested in the Telegram App? Recommend you get the App Directly from the Site.
Local/IPS may still block Pages,so VPNs may work with proper Proxies.
Posted by: IronForge | Jul 20 2022 16:13 utc | 58
How many times NASA announced the launch date and then came up with some excuse to postpone the rocket launch? Northrop Grumman is just a company working for profit, nothing else. Himars is bullshit just like the NASA launches...lot of gas...
What the collective West should worry is the uncanny calmness of Putin...not some panicky whining of the demented One and his cronies, including Ze...😋
Posted by: ostro | Jul 20 2022 16:19 utc | 59
Great! The RT link posted. The video's an hour long. Yesterday, I linked to the documents and transcripts from the Troika Summit in Iran, but not the presser until now. Putin's explanation of the gas situation is long and detailed, and most of it's been reported by media. On Syria, he was shorter and blunter, but didn't add anything that wasn't already stated.
Today, Putin's back in Moscow participating in the "Strong Ideas for a New Time" forum. In my very quick scan of Putin's remarks, they are again important.
In my reading of Putin's words, he's very pleased at Azerbaijan's apparent hopping off the fence to fully engage in Eurasian development instead of toying with EU possibilities. Plus, there's the coalescing of the Caspian and Central Asian actors that's moving the development agenda into a higher gear. IMO, Iran and China have a lot to do with this development.
As for those demanding Russia cut EU off from its gas, Russia doesn't need to lift a finger in that regard as the EU is doing a fine job of committing economic suicide, a situation Putin described at the presser thusly: "if they [Eu et al] close everything with their own hands, and then look for someone to blame, it would simply be funny if it was not so sad." And further:
"And the same rake is stepped on in the sphere of trade in oil and petroleum products. Now we hear all sorts of crazy ideas about limiting the volume of Russian oil, limiting the price of Russian oil. It's all the same thing that happens on gas. The result – it is even surprising that people with higher education say this – will be the same – a rise in prices. Oil prices will skyrocket." [My Emphasis]
Someone on the previous thread mentioned the Three Stooges. Well, there you are.
" Zelenskyy may flee to POL"
No, he is going to UK, the clown invited him in October.
Shitenskyy will bring fresh supply from Hunter's stash so Bojo can hasta-la-vista more.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 16:38 utc | 61
I think the best way to solve this conflict in the long run is to win the hearts of Ukrainian civilians.
I think a lot of Ukrainians are already sick of this war and their regime, but they are still afraid to act on it. Maybe Russia could help them oust their regime.
And it would help if Russia published details on how Ukrainians have been brainwashed for decades by Soros and the US/UK governments into hating Russians.
And of course there is always the hope that Western countries might wake up and realize their mistake. In Israel, for instance, there are more and more protests against the Ukrainian regime. Israel is small, but because of history the West can't ignore it if and when Israelis consider Ukrainians nazis.
Posted by: Nico | Jul 20 2022 16:41 utc | 62
….I think the best way to solve this conflict in the long run is to win the hearts of Ukrainian civilians……
Errr - you do realize that the vast majority of Ukrainians despise the Kiev regime ? You do realize that around 150,000 people born in Ukraine are currently fighting against the Kiev regime ? since the 2014 putsch - ~20 million Ukrainians voted with their feet and fled Ukraine. You also realize that Kiev has been manic about rounding up ‘sabotuers’ ?
Posted by: Exile | Jul 20 2022 16:50 utc | 63
Posted by: Nico | Jul 20 2022 16:41 utc | 65
Re: winning the hearts of Ukrainian civilians. Yes, must be done and probably yes, doable, but there are obstacles in play we don't often see in our media (previously linked by oldhippie):
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukrainian-partisans-russian-sympathizers-war/
Excerpts:
"These local resistance units are hard to identify. Naturally, they opt for secrecy and clandestine operations. Fighting an army of occupation requires such tactics, particularly as Russian regulars rotate out and Interior Ministry or Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) units move in – neither of whom are known for their soft approach to assimilation.
A clear example of this is the occupied city of Kherson. The major shipping and economic center of over 280,000 residents was captured in the first days of March. After 40 percent of the population left the city, only those willing to capitulate or willing to fight remained. It took little time for the residents to begin their resistance. In the first days of occupation, residents took to the streets to protest the Russian presence. Almost immediately, the Russians began making lists of potential trouble-makers.
The city became a case study for Ukrainian resistance, along with the neighboring southern city of Melitopol. In late April, Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of occupied Melitopol, declared that, “According to our intelligence, there have been confirmed the destruction of 100 occupiers.” In Kherson, attacks began with the killing of pro-Russian public figures.
On March 20th, Pavlo Slobodchikov, a local businessman who worked with the Russian forces, was shot in his car along with his wife by a Ukrainian sabotage group. Pro-Russian blogger and activist Valery Kuleshov was shot in his car in the early hours of April 20th. It became quite clear to the people of Kherson that those who sided with the invaders were going to pay a price.
These local fighters have remained in the shadows, but their attacks have intensified as Ukrainian forces have advanced to within 20 km (12.4 miles) of the city. Fedorov stated that “our people are doing everything to make sure the land burns under the feet of the occupiers,” in reference to the resistance efforts ahead of a potential Ukrainian liberation. These efforts have amounted to approximately 100 Russian military or police personnel being killed by these shadow warriors. Poisoned food, grenade attacks, and ambushes on police patrols have all taken their toll.
More recently, the attacks have become more personal. Yevgeny Sobolev, a former Ukrainian jail warden, was attacked by an IED hung from a tree in Kherson in mid-June. While he and his driver survived the attack, it’s reported that he lost the use of his legs. Former anti-corruption agent Yevgeny Shevchenko commented on the incident, saying, “Yevgeny Sobolev, the head of the 90th correctional colony, who went over to the side of the occupiers, has just been liquidated in Kherson – I wonder who destroyed him?”
The partisans also ambushed Russian service members during a visit to a local cafe in Kherson. According to Ukrainian Southern Command’s Facebook, a trio of Russian occupation forces stopped in a waterfront cafe for lunch, during which they were ambushed by unknown assailants. These attackers are purported to be members of the resistance. "
@Nico | Jul 20 2022 16:41 utc | 65
Btw, Israel refused to accept an EU delegation because it contained a well known Estonian nazi supporter. So they are selective. Shitenskyy azov nazi ok, Estonian nazi not ok.
google for this "European Parliament planned Israel trip with Nazi sympathizer delegate"
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 16:54 utc | 65
@ Scorpion | Jul 20 2022 16:53 utc | 67
Let me wipe my ass with your " local resistance " and site.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 16:57 utc | 66
Re: Hearts and minds - https://t.me/azmilitary11/11274
🏃🇺🇦Khokhlyatsky policemen detained intermediaries who illegally took out conscripts across the border to Romania."Evading" from the mobilization cost about $ 3,000 per person. There were many people who wanted to leave Ukraine in this way.
They must die for the West...
Posted by: eyeswideopen | Jul 20 2022 17:00 utc | 67
Medvedev's been on a roll via his Telegram. Perhaps he's angling to become a comedian after he retires from government. He's certainly practicing! The first entry is from yesterday:
Weapons that are and which are not immediately there:Amazing things are happening now overseas. Despite last year's $85 billion debacle of abandoned military equipment in Afghanistan, the White House continues to pump weapons uncontrollably into the agonizing Kiev regime. This is not the first time such a decision has been made. So, as Mayakovsky said, someone needs it.
The Kabul-Kandahar corruption experiments of the US military have ended, but the gray schemes for the sale of weapons to third countries have not. They bring a lot of "greenery". Despite the rotten chaos in "Nezalezhnaya", the supply of "deadly metal" there is carried out as if by the hour. Well, the United States needs a new Afghan, which today's Ukraine is rapidly turning into. The thieves' funnel sucks in more and more expensive weapons.
The Pentagon predictably denies everything, frantically lies and is incompetently confused in its testimony. At the same time, any voices that try to object are immediately suppressed. For criticizing the uncontrolled supply of weapons, Kiev even got a Russophobic congresswoman of Ukrainian origin Sparz, who until recently advocated bloody lend-lease. For she encroached on the innermost thing – the money, which, as you know, does not smell like either gunpowder or corpses.
Moreover, in this situation, examples from history do not speak in favor of the United States. For example, a significant part of the Washington regional committee usually participated in the secret supply of weapons in circumvention of various embargoes. "Sleepy Joe," by the way, was a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the '80s. So the experience of secret transactions on blood there is substantial.
The conclusion is simple. The American weapons currently supplied to Malorossiya will spread in the hands of various criminals around the world. More precisely, it is already in full swing. And under the "roof" of the administration and special services of the United States. In fact, America is once again becoming a sponsor of international terrorism. I do not rule out that later, together with the responsible countries, it will be necessary to work out the possibility of creating a special mechanism to investigate this rotten weapons plot. And perhaps we should think about forming a special international body to withdraw American gifts coming out here and there.
However, this will not affect the final scenario in any way. Professional gun thieves in the United States and Ukraine will fill their pockets properly.
Terrorists and radicals will have more lethal types of military equipment.
Russia will achieve all its goals.
And there will be peace. On our terms. And not those that are being talked about in Europe and overseas by confused political impotents.
And here's his effort from today:
OUR SINS (what Russia is to blame for)1. In the insane rise in price of gasoline at all gas stations of the United States and its close allies.
2. Rising prices for all food products in all stores on all continents.
3. In the intoxicating heat in European resorts, from which all living things suffer.
4. In provoking the introduction of "hellish sanctions" against Russia, which hit defenseless European companies.
5. That Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. periodically confuses words, cannot find a way out of the room and reads technical notes on the text of the prompter.
6. The fact that in America you can vote by mail.
7. The fact that Olaf Scholz was called "offended liverwurst".
8. In the resignations of European leaders since the arrogant creation of the Russian Empire by Peter I, everyone is angry.
9. In manipulating public opinion at the expense of works of Russian classical literature and symphonic music, which are uncritically consumed by gullible Europeans.
10. In the villainous murder of the progressive European politician Gaius Julius Caesar by a gang of terrorists Publius Servilius Caschi, Marcus Brutus and other Russian mercenaries with the aim of dividing the Western world and promoting anti-liberal values.
11. In the unprovoked application of a pre-emptive meteorite strike on our planet and the subsequent disappearance of dinosaurs.
Let me wipe my ass with your " local resistance " and site.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2022 16:57 utc | 69
You are welcome to do whatever you wish with your nether portions, rk, but please don't darken my door with any details!
Russia has been working with Turkey to get Ukrainian grain moved out of Odessa. I believe they reached an agreement about this but understand that Ukraine is still blocking shipment because Russia insists that it be able to export as part of the deal. I don't believe there will be a move on Odessa until either Ukrainian grain is shipped out or Russia concludes that this will be impossible due to Ukrainian (US) intransigence.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jul 20 2022 17:03 utc | 70
Had to Run, so I closed my earlier Posts.
What I don't understand - is that most Competent Military Veterans KNOW that:
A)RUS are going to Finish when they "Finish and Say So" while leaving behind PKOps for awhile;
B)RUS have been cranking out their Industrial Plants at least on Double Shifts (Navy Engineering/ProductionControl/WartimeProduction+Logistics Mgr during my O-3/MIC-Mgmt/Desert Shield-Storm Tour after my O-1/2 Gulf IRQ-IRN War Naval Convoy Tour here); and are probably on Schedule to Take Out NATO/EU+ISR+KOR+AUS with Orbitals, Suborbitals, Hypersonics, Supersonics, Subsonic Cruise Missiles, TheaterBallistcs(TBMs) - with SSBNs, SSGNs, PoseidonUUVs, Wave-Seeker Torpedoes (Murican Destroyers+FFGlets' Sacrificial Dance - why I loved being on an Independently Operating Cruiser) along with other Devices yet Disclosed.
RUS can do this Conventionally - even SetOff PoseidonUUVs on Carriers/Amphib Groups At Sea or Offshore to Tsunami Ports+LNG-Facilities.
These Tribal-RAND/ISW/ZionMason-NeoCons are in over their Heads at the Expense of the G7.
IMHO, CHN might be too Hesitantly Diplomatic now; and Zionist-Masons might try a False Flag to Strike into SilkRoad+SeaLane Traffic while starting a 5thColumn Demo propping up/anchoring Troops+Gear+TacNukes in TWN.
Overly Cautious? We know the H8_Hegemony's Debt Financing - AND - Fuel Supply Schemes just began to Collapse via their Own Sanctions; and there's no Turning Back.
2022CE-2024CE may be the Final Window for the Plutarchy and Vassal Corporates+Govts of the H8_Hegemony (Greater_ISR/Diaspora and VassalG7) to enact Disruptive, Ruinous, Dominating, Subjugating, and Scortched-Earth Schemes upon RUS/CHN.
As RUS+CHN Endure and Prosper, their Affiliated Associates of the SCO/BRICS/CSTO/EAEU should fare better.
Posted by: IronForge | Jul 20 2022 17:04 utc | 71
re: "hearts and minds", how many Ukrainian civilians have you talked to? I've spoken to 100+ over the past 5-6 years, mostly from Kyiv region but Kharkiv as well, some of them on a daily basis. I can assure you even in Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, the depth of feeling against the Russian government and its troops is immense. Having unguided cluster munitions dropped in the middle of your home city killing civilians in the street and their homes, as has been done in Kharkiv in every month of this war (prior to the current one, thanks to Ukraine's local counter-offensive), will do wonders for removing any affection for the people pressing that particular button.
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 17:05 utc | 72
I know from start that cowards who have no to skin in in "the game" will jump like hyenas to my neck. Anything that is a decent question about their strategy is perceived like an inadmissible question ...
Posted by: Gsabriel | Jul 20 2022 17:05 utc | 73
Yes, I am back ! The one you all hate because is not spilling stupid shit like you want to hear ! Because I dare to come some critical thinking about what traitor Putin is doing.
Posted by: Gabriel | Jul 20 2022 17:08 utc | 74
I use to think that Putin was genious for more than 10 year. But nou I am convinced he is a NWO traitor !!!
Posted by: Gabriel | Jul 20 2022 17:10 utc | 75
Re Lavrov statement. There is a limit. If Russia takes over the whole Ukraine, the Ukrainian army cannot launch any missiles.
Posted by: RB | Jul 20 2022 17:11 utc | 76
@karlof1 63
Naturally Putin's remarks regarding Nord Stream 2 are the most relevant ones for the German audience and have caused hefty reactions ("blackmail" etc.). While the Germans are still waiting for the re-opening of Nord Stream 1, he chats about his last talk with Scholz where he asked him if Germany wanted Gazprom to reserve gas for a potential opening of NS2. Scholz said then he has other priorities, so Gazprom has meanwhile allocated half of the gas reserves for other countries and domestic consumption, and NS2 would only be able to deliver a reduced amount of gas if Germany decides to open it.
Putin's face language is unbeatable. He puts on a very slight mocking smile, conveying that his German counterpart is doing stupid things. If the German government refuses to take Russian gas and doesn't manage to keep houses warm and industries running, even the mainstream media sycophants won't be able to prevent public outcry and possibly unrest.
Der Deutsche friert, der Russe lacht, der Ami hat sein Spiel gemacht.
Posted by: mk | Jul 20 2022 17:25 utc | 77
A follow on to Scorpion at @67. 16:53 utc.
It is worth working out what the US is trying to achieve in the area near Kherson.
Note the fighting and advances (mentioned by ISW, a Nuland and Neocon source, but not necessarily confirmed elsewhere) are trying to push the Russians to the other side of the Dnieper River. These now include new attacks on bridges across it. (11 out of 12 HIMARS hits on one - but these seem to have gone through the bridge, making eleven smallish holes rather than doing major damage. Wunderwaffles?).
Plus the two drone attacks on Nuclear plants:
1) "Energodar, an explosion occurred in the area of a nuclear power plant.
2) Ukrainian attack drones struck the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, RIA Novosti." they also claim the elimination of a large Russian Radar system in the same area.
But, many troops have been withdrawn or redeployed FROM Odessa fro use elsewhere.
Using Occam's razor to hack bits off, it is clear that a similar situation to that in East Syria, where a section of land is delimited by a major river, and any Syria presence (As near Dier Ezzor) is resisted, is easy to plan on a map. - It also might be repeated here as a template, as the number of defending troops can be reduced due to constraints of the terrain. As long as they have air defenses or air coverage.
Keeping a bit of Ukraine as a permanent US occupied zone and as a port to the Black Sea, (for official access for the US Navy if it can be legally separated?)
Odessa being the center of the smuggling of weapons, and Snake island being part of the set-up. (probably sufficiant to interdict the Russians setting up Radar stations).
*
The Russians themselves have moved much of their naval assets to Novorossyia and strengthened the defensivei shield around the Kersch bridge and Sevastopol.
***
Scorpion. I don't entirely buy into the Ukrainians themselves doing all the sabotage. There were reports of UK "sabotage specialists" being imported into Ukraine not so along ago.
Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 20 2022 17:28 utc | 78
The leaders of every NATO-aligned country near Russia should be watching and asking themselves whether they want to be next.
Posted by: Sam Bullard
---
They want it. vL is preparing winter w/o gas, Berlin already is voting for NATO troops in Ukrain, which means: they want a NAT-Russia war, and it is said "before winter"
Posted by: peter | Jul 20 2022 17:29 utc | 79
@b. and everyone
Please watch this video. It is more than a sleepwalk to cross all the red lines.
Defence Secretary Austin and Gen. Milley hold news briefing following Ukraine meeting
Posted by: whirlX | Jul 20 2022 17:31 utc | 80
b. "If I were a Ukrainian decision maker I would take Lavrov's threat very seriously."
me "End this war (nothing "special" about this "operation") decisively now or lose it. Count the French and US years in Vietnam and what they won. The bloom is off Zelensky but as long any old successor claims succession? This terrible war continues."
Posted by: bobbert | Jul 20 2022 17:31 utc | 81
The quotations from Lavrov cited in the OP do not appear to show Lavrov repeating the proposition from December 2021 that NATO withdraw to its old borders. It is no doubt gratifying to think he couldn't possibly have meant what he did say. And no doubt it's easier to make up something sensible instead, rather than defy the APPLAUSE sign that most seem to see somewhere. But th important issue is why Lavrov thinks threatening Ukraine's territorial integrity would force NATO to do this, especially since the Russian Federation cannot possibly carry out this threat without mobilizing a vastly larger force. Again, cf. the Iraq War.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2022 17:37 utc | 82
It is becoming more clear that the West's strategy was never intended to bankrupt Russia, but rather (somewhat geopolitically misaligned to Orwell's masterpiece) to hype WWIII by artificially creating Oceania's angst and enmity with Eurasia. We may one day learn that "the doomsday defense of Ukraine" was merely to hide all the bribery, corruption, and even immoral biological warfare crimes going on. Sure, all that is happening, but it may be worse, that our Fabian Masters are antsy to start their long-planned WWIII. It's funny to me that anyone thinks the Russian Hegemony--a nuke-piled thugocracy, run almost exactly like the classical NYC Mafia--would come out of WWIII and into a Worldwide Thugocracy with anything less than a key seat at the table. Same with PRC. Same as the status quo right now. The only thing effectively different between the rule of the world today and the rule of the world after the looming "Great Reset" is that our very tiny cabal of vampiric Masters across the world, ideologically married but administratively divorced, will finally coalesce openly and start flaunting their rule over us. They appear tired of pretending the We The Schlubs have any rights at all, that we believe naively that democratic systems actually empower us. All of that was pacification bullshit from the beginning, and I can only imagine what a huge hassle it must be to be so diabolical and duplicitous, 24/7/365 for over 100 years. So maybe now, the Fabians have lost all patience with slowly turning our minds and spines to gelatin! Because now, they seem to want us merely to grovel at their feet. Soon maybe there will be no more bread, no more circuses, maybe not even any yet-to-be-bottled Victory Gin. Instead, they've forced us into face diapers, gene-editing graphene-laced clot shots, and GPS-tracked social distancing. In other words, clownish humiliation. Something reminiscent of "rat cages on faces" is probably next! So everything I have observed since about 2008 leads me to think that all this psychotic rapid-transformation of the world status quo is to accomplish one thing. And that is that our demonic Masters can no longer wait another day to rub our faces in pigshit while they anally rape us with impunity, but most importantly, with our full knowledge that it is happening to us and there is nothing we can do about it.
Posted by: Tom SteChatte | Jul 20 2022 17:41 utc | 83
Russia is carvjng out an ever expanding buffer zone within the West's "buffer zone"
Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 17:50 utc | 84
@yenwoda
You really have to do better than that. I raise you the 30,000+ Ukrainians fighting in the Donbass against the Banderite government versus your "100+" conversations.
I will grant you all your arguments. The Russians lost Kiev, Kharkov, Moskva, Snake Island. I will even grant you the spurious nonsense of 25k irretrievables for the allied forces. So what? Kramatorsk will fall. Slavyansk will fall. You sowed the wind, now reap the whirlwind.
I think you are on the wrong site. That is, unless you are paid to be here.
Posted by: eyeswideopen | Jul 20 2022 17:54 utc | 85
@Tom SteChatte, we have not been considering rat-face-cages but let me run that one up the flagpole for you
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 17:55 utc | 86
It’s a compliment to Bernard’s growing influence that disinformation agents are flooding the bar comments.
Posted by: Exile | Jul 20 2022 17:56 utc | 87
Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 20 2022 17:28 utc | 81
"Scorpion. I don't entirely buy into the Ukrainians themselves doing all the sabotage. There were reports of UK "sabotage specialists" being imported into Ukraine not so along ago."
Well, the most likely thing is that after years of training by NATO veterans from foreign wars and oodles of oligarch funds that most of the resistance once combat ops began are indeed done by Ukrainians most of whom in Kherson, for example, are actual Khersonians and some of whom from other parts of Ukraine, probably with quite a few being Azovian Thugs from Galicia in place to stiffen the natives' resolve when necessary.
If there are any US or other foreign experts still staying behind they are probably being kept out of harm's way for fear of their getting captured and thus becoming bargaining chips to RF's advantage later on.
American thinking with regard to Europe is pretty simple: we saved them from Nazis to get a foot in the door to save them from Russia. Now if they are getting their energy from Russia instead of the US then they are ungrateful little bitches that have to be destroyed. To add a touch of "poetic justice" in the mix, let them be destroyed by Russia and let us say we have no part in Europe's wars this time, sorry. Just sayin'
Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 20 2022 18:03 utc | 89
My understanding of the current situation is that,
1. The uS is moving US troops to the order of 100,000 on a line going through Romania, Poland, and the Baltic state. Those are probanly involved with the C3I of the operations in ukraine including targeting and coordination of artillery fire on Russian targets and logistics to and within Ukraine. Following the firing of the Prosecutor and others by the Zelensky regime, the CIA is taking over the control of the SBU. Basically the US will become more involved in the conflict.
2. The Russians will take the offensive to the North of Kherson and on Kharkov while keeping an eye on and containing the US in the West.
The Russian military will take a fresh approach while facing the threat of saturation missile attacks from the US backed Ukrainians. A new situation is developing. right now.
Those are just my feelings based on the news I read.
Posted by: Richard L | Jul 20 2022 18:05 utc | 90
@eyeswideopen, that's kind of my point. 8 years of fighting including shelling of Donetsk hardened feelings against Ukraine to the point that I don't expect Ukraine to retake those territories past pre-war lines even if Russia's momentum is reversed. And for the record, while I think blame for the Donbas war lies very much with Russia (they created/fostered the separatist movements, sent "specialists" like Girkin with no connection to the region as leaders, covertly & massively armed them, and intervened directly, while lying brazenly about it, to prevent Ukraine's ATO/JFO from succeeding), I think some of the shelling attacks from both sides including Ukraine of populated areas were wrong and probably war crimes. I actually feel very bad for the people in LDNR, who were sold the lie that Russia would improve their lives, and instead have had a generation of men yanked off the streets to be used as cannon fodder for Russia's Great Power games.
When "Phase 2" started, I predicted that it would end in a decisive battle for Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, and that Russia's success would depend on how well they could use maneuver tactics and combined arms and sustain momentum. They haven't really done that and I currently don't think they make a serious effort at those cities, unless they do a partial mobilization and maybe not even then.
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 18:10 utc | 91
Meanwhile in Italy, scumbag extraordinaire Draghi is out. Now, Salvini, Conte and Berlusconi will fight it out to see how it goes, but it's clear that with any of them in charge, there's no way Italy will continue with the ongoing Euro suicide against Russia.
As for Ukraine proper, just read a guy's comment who came back from Polish borderlands a few days ago, saying there's a shitload of Westerners around working and training people. NATO or EU countries stating they're not at war with Russia is more and more a travesty. Best to stop the insanity now or in the coming weeks, because otherwise I fully expect a lot of their guys to come back in body bags - deservedly so.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 20 2022 18:12 utc | 92
If the West delivers cruise missiles to Ukraine, then any talk about a buffer zone around Russia and the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine becomes moot. Cruise missiles have way to much range for that. The only way out would consist of defeating Ukraine in one war or the other, if necessary by making the loss of land total, i.e. driving out all the loyalists Ukrainians, occupying their lands, and resettling them with Russians.
Posted by: Holy S. | Jul 20 2022 18:16 utc | 93
Posted by: Soi | Jul 20 2022 13:50 utc | 5
It would help if you engaged your brain before posting - or are you just psychopathic? These nonsensical claims about Putin and Lavrov help no-one but the 'west' and in addition are just stupid, ignorant and obnoxious. It is clear to everyone except the insane that Putin and Lavrov are patriots and are acting in the best interests of Russia. They also have far more information than you about how best to do that. So piss off.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Jul 20 2022 18:16 utc | 94
OUCH!!!! Putin tells the truth:
"Of course, this 'golden billion' did not become 'golden' by accident. It has achieved a lot. But it did not only take up its positions thanks to the realization of some ideas, but to a large extent due to the robbery of other peoples - both in Asia and Africa. That's what happened." [My Emphasis]
mk @80--
Thanks for your reply. Gazprom announced that since NS2's certification is uncertain it would utilize half its capacity to serve Russian customers; and that if it finally does become certified and becomes operational, only half its capacity would be available since the other half is already being consumed. This op/ed offers an excellent review of the self-inflicted situation and employs proper rhetoric in its descriptions:
"'We have seen Russia consistently trying to weaponize energy as a way of creating division amongst the allies,' Trudeau said. So if Canada doesn’t violate its own sanctions and return the turbines to Germany, then Putin wins. The Olympic level rhetorical gymnastics required by Western leaders to justify violating their own failed sanctions are second only to their recent defense of firing up coal plants again, and redefining fossil fuel energy as 'green,' amid the current shortages." [Emphasis Original]
our Fabian Masters are antsy to start their long-planned WWIII.
Posted by: Tom SteChatte | Jul 20 2022 17:41 utc | 86
Isn't that self-contradictory? Fabians seek to avoid climactic war, as with their eponymous ancestor, Fabius Cunctator. Perhaps you mean the hated Centrists. Being a centrist has become a term of abuse; you have to be an extremist, right or left, to justify yourself these days, according to what they say.
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 20 2022 18:18 utc | 96
' the traitor Lavrov" no one knows how been in Russian foreign ministry for so long. Especially in view of mr. Soi's wise statements on the long history of Russian wrong policies.
After the facts, and after the syrian invastion of 2011 it s very easy to lecture it over, mr Soi.
We back home have good stamp name for this: "An engineer of already done works"
Does not seem to me a valid warning - is like saying "If you defend yourself, I will have to attack you with greater force." Russia needs to handle military risks - at this point, threats are rather pointless.
I do think it would be correct to say that more dangerous weapons and unsportsman-like conduct will complicate terms of surrender.
Russia needs to track and destroy those HIMARs - the burden is theirs.
Posted by: jared | Jul 20 2022 18:23 utc | 98
On the issue of the Ukrainian people's commitment to fighting the Russians? For a start, it was the fascist regime that decided Russian-speakers weren't Ukrainians, not first class or equal ones anyway. The people of fascist Ukraine didn't feel any pain when the fascists terrorized their politicians or tormented Roma and Sinti or when they beat up leftists and most of all, they felt no pain when their Ukrainian shells killed thousands of people. Their shock and horror and rage now is about as significant morally as the shock and rage and horror of non-slaveholding southerners at being "invaded" by the dastardly Yankees. Which is to say, not.
The conclusion comes from the factual beginning, that the Ukrainian war began as a civil war between fascists and their proposed victims Russian-speakers. Like the US Civil War, the hard hand of war will break their morale. Unfortunately, the fascists don't rely on mass support. They sneer at mere votes on principle. Plebiscites aka loaded questions are the closest they get. Thus when the hard hand of war breaks the morale of the Ukrainians under the fascists, the question is whether it will matter. Which again is why Lavrov's burbling about seizing Ukrainian land with insufficient forces is so dubious, rather than joyful.
The Ukrainian emigration are beggars who chose the rich side paying for the fascist regime. Beggars are not choosers. Any individuals who wanted to re-uinite Ukraine on an equal basis will suffer from the fascist sympathizers in their own midst and even more, from the fascist sympathizers in the security services and governments of their supposed refuges.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2022 18:24 utc | 99
Posted by: yenwoda | Jul 20 2022 16:09 utc | 58
Did you follow the Falluja fight ? What’s your opinion?
Did you follow Raqqa fight?
Did you follow the Mosul battle?
How do you assess those war actions? We’re they reasonable?
Posted by: RB | Jul 20 2022 18:26 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Great work and article as always B. From one Bernard to another Bernhard, much love and respect brother 🙏
Thank you for all that you do
Posted by: BurnEye Minds3rdEye | Jul 20 2022 13:29 utc | 1