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In The Multipolar World Iran Will No Longer Fear U.S. Sanctions
When U.S. president Joe Biden recently held a number of talks in the Middle East Iran was one point on his agenda. The U.S. has made it clear that it does not want to reenter into the nuclear deal with Iran. It is instead again attempting a 'maximum pressure' strategy to pressure Iran into additional concessions.
Iran has made it clear that there will not be any more then those it had made in the original agreement. Biden then tried to form an anti-Iran coalition out of Israel and the Gulf regimes. The Gulf Cooperation Council states rejected that:
[T]he Saudi foreign minister poured cold water over any imminent normalization with Israel, saying this was not a precursor to further steps. He said Riyadh was not part of any discussions on a Gulf-Israeli defense alliance to counter Iran.
All GCC are talking with Iran to normalize their relations.
Iran will benefit from the new multi-polar world. It has been seeking to ally itself with the Russia and China block with added relations to a neutral India. Last year Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This year it applied for membership in BRICS.
Last month Iran's foreign minister visited India:
Amir-Abdollahian also called on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a privilege not accorded to all visiting foreign ministers. Tweeting on the meeting, Modi highlighted how “relations have mutually benefitted both the countries and have promoted regional security and prosperity.”
The official statement released by the Ministry of External Affairs highlighted the exchange of views on important issues like the Iran nuclear deal, the Ukraine conflict, and the situation in Afghanistan. India “appreciated the role of Iran in facilitating India’s medical assistance to Afghanistan, including supply of COVID-19 vaccines to Afghan nationals residing in Iran.” In addition, all bilateral issues including cooperation in the field of regional connectivity and the progress made at the Chabahar port were reviewed. Exuding confidence at the outcome of the visit, the Iranian foreign minister said that “preparing a roadmap for strategic cooperation between Iran and India can regulate long-term relations and protect it from the impact of destructive factors.”
A few moth ago Iran signed a new transport agreement with its northern neighbor Azerbaijan. It will be good for both sides:
On 11 March, Azerbaijan and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on establishing railway, highway, communication, and energy supply lines connecting Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur economic region and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the territory of Iran. According to the document, there is a plan to build four bridges over the Araz River and two railways and develop communication and energy supply infrastructure to establish a new corridor.
The better relations with Azerbaijan will also open a rail corridor towards Russia.
Another new trade route was finally opened to connect India via Iran with Russia.
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This project has been on and off for many years but this month it was finally activated:
An India-bound cargo sent from Russia using the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) reached the Sarkhas railway station in Iran on July 13. From the railway station, the cargo will go to Bandar Abbas port in southern India and then come to India via the Arabian Sea.
The cargo left Chekhov station in Russia on July 6 and it was received by a team of Iranian ministers
What is INSTC?
INSTC is a 7,200 km-long transportation network offering the shortest connectivity route to its member states. It was established on September 12, 2000, by Iran, Russia and India. The corridor encompasses sea, road and rail routes.
The main purpose of the corridor was to reduce carriage costs and transit time between India and Russia. The transit time is expected to reduce to almost half, once the corridor becomes fully functional.
In future the route will go from India to Chabahar, a port in south east Iran that India had helped to build. From there the goods will go by rail up north to the Caspian Sea and then by ship directly to Russia. This will shorten the route even more and will also end any dependency on other partners.
But the greatest news for Iran is a new deal with Russia's Gazprom that was signed today:
The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Russian gas producer Gazprom signed on Tuesday a memorandum of understanding worth around $40 billion, Iran's oil ministry's news agency SHANA reported.
The deal was signed during an online ceremony by the CEOs of both companies on the day Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tehran for a summit with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts.
Gazprom will help NIOC in the development of the Kish and North Pars gas fields and also six oil fields, according to SHANA. Gazprom will also be involved in the completion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and construction of gas export pipelines.
Iran sits on the world’s second-largest gas reserves after Russia, but US sanctions have hindered access to technology and slowed development of gas exports.
Gazprom is a strong partner and can not be hindered by U.S. sanctions. Iran will finally be able export more of its plentiful gas. Russia will also have a chance to work with Iran to keep the prices at a certain level. With such a large deal will also come protection. Iran will be able to call on Russia should someone start hostilities against it.
When Iran produces enough gas it can also revive the old project of a pipeline to India. This could either go through Pakistan or, as India would probably prefer, through an undersea pipeline:
A 1,300-km undersea pipeline from Iran, avoiding Pakistani waters, can bring natural gas from the Persian Gulf to India at rates less than the price of Liquefied Natural Gas available in the spot market, proponents of the pipeline said on Tuesday.
Releasing a study on the Iran-India gas pipeline, former oil secretary T.N.R. Rao said natural gas imported through the over $4 billion line would cost $5-5.50 per million British thermal unit at the Indian coast, cheaper than the rate at which some of the domestic fields supply gas.
Despite U.S. sanctions Iran is again becoming fully integrated into its region. It is a great success and the gas and transit deals will help its economy to make some gains even as the U.S. adds new sanctions. Russia, India and China are partners who can and will ignore those.
Iran now also has the capability to produce sufficient nuclear material for a number of bombs. It will not use this capability as its religious ideology prohibits the making and use of such weapons. But it is a latent threat that can be used to deter Israel and the U.S. from any attack.
That Trump left the nuclear deal was dumb. That Biden did not revive it immediately after taking office was even dumber. To now stay out of it, only to keep some stupid sanctions against Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corp, is the dumbest step I can think of.
Washington has yet to understand that it has lost its mono-polar position that made the international sanctions which led to the nuclear deal with Iran possible. In the multi-polar world that exists now Iran can develop as it likes. Others will now ignore U.S. or EU sanctions and the threat of them is no longer useful. More countries under U.S. isolation, Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba and Syria, will also find new ways and alliances to better their positions.
In his book The Great Chessboard the former National Security Advisor of the United States Zbigniew Brzeziński wrote:
Potentially, the most dangerous scenario [for America] would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an ‘anti-hegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.
Joe Biden has finally managed to create that.
@b:
Last year Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
No, Iran has not become a full member of the SCO—yet.
In September 2021 the leaders of SCO member countries have agreed to let Iran become a member, and Iran has started its accession to the SCO. The procedure requires that Iran accedes to all existing SCO agreements that have been made between SCO member states over the past 20 years. This is a laborious process that requires some changes to national laws. It took India and Pakistan two years after their prospective membership was announced in 2017 to actually become SCO members (in 2019). It is expected that Iran will become a member during this year‘s summit in September. I suspect that a few corners are being cut to speed up Iran’s accession, namely, that it will become a SCO member in September 2022 under a promise that it will accede to all SCO agreements over the next year or two.
Iran’s current status in the SCO is an observer state.
This project has been on and off for many years but this month it was finally activated…
There have been a lot of these “final activation” announcements over the years, but the corridor is not truly “activated” yet, because the railroad connection—the main component of the INSTC—has not been completed.
Saint Petersburg had a direct railroad connection to Baku since 1900. The USSR has built a direct connection to Iran’s railroad network at Julfa, Nakhichevan ASSR (part of Azerbaijan SSR), connected to the Soviet railroad network via Armenian SSR. With the break up of the Soviet Union and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the connection between Nakhichevan and Armenia has been cut off, thereby cutting the connection between Iran and Russia.
In 2007, it was decided to build a new railway connection via Azerbaijan’s Astara and Iran’s Astara, Rasht and Qazvin (the latter already connected to Iran’s railroad network). In March 2018, the 9.7-km Astara (Azerbaijan)–Astara (Iran) connection, where the railway changes from Russian gauge to standard gauge, was officially opened. In March 2019, Iran has opened the Qazvin–Rasht line, which took a long time to build because of the difficult local geogrpahy which required building lots of bridges and tunnels. In January 2022, Russia gave Iran a $5 billion loan for the completion of various projects, including the 164 km–long Rasht–Astara (Iran) line. Earlier financing for the line by Azerbaijan has been blocked by U.S. sanctions.
Once built, not only will the line create a railway connection between Russia, Belarus, DPR, LPR, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia and Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar—opening access to India, Pakistan, Arabian Peninsula and Eastern and Southern Africa—it will also create a railway connection between Iran and Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi, as well as Turkish ports. Although there already exists a railway connection between Iran and Turkey, it utilizes a train ferry over Lake Van in Turkey, killing the cargo throughput.
In short: the INSTC will only truly “activate”, i.e., realize its full potential in terms of volume, speed and costs, once the Rasht–Astara segment is complete.
Posted by: S | Jul 19 2022 22:07 utc | 50
The Kremlin has published the transcript of Putin’s remarks after the Troika Summit. All emphasis mine:
The meeting of the heads of state guarantors of the Astana process to promote the Syrian settlement was really useful and very informative. In a businesslike and constructive atmosphere, together with Mr Raisi and Mr Erdogan, we discussed in detail key aspects of our cooperation on Syria.
The joint statement reaffirmed the commitment to strengthen trilateral cooperation between Russia, Iran and Turkey in the interests of achieving sustainable and viable normalization of the situation in the Syrian Arab Republic.
The Troika states share the view that the Syrian crisis can be fully resolved only through political and diplomatic means based on inter-Syrian dialogue, as stipulated in Security Council Resolution 2254, and, of course, with strict observance of the fundamental principles of respect for sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.
It is up to the Syrians themselves to determine the future of Syria without imposing any ready-made recipes or models from the outside.
I would like to note that today we have agreed with our Iranian and Turkish colleagues to continue the practice of holding regular international expert consultations on Syria under the auspices of the Astana format. In such consultations, along with the delegations of our three countries, Syrian parties take part: the government and the opposition, observer states – Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon – as well as representatives of the UN. In particular, it was agreed that the next, 19th consultations will be held before the end of this year. There are also plans to organize consultations of the foreign ministers of the Astana Troika.
Of course, much attention at the talks was paid to the activities of the Constitutional Committee. Let me remind you that this structure was created thanks to the coordinated actions of the diplomats of our three countries. Thus, it was possible to bring together representatives of the Syrian government, the opposition and civil society, to give them the opportunity to agree in direct dialogue on the parameters of the future state structure of their own country.
Of course, together with our Iranian and Turkish partners, in coordination with the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Syria, we are ready to continue to help the stable and uninterrupted functioning of the committee in every possible way, while maintaining the leading role in the Syrian settlement for the Astana format.
At today’s meeting, the problems of combating terrorism in Syria were considered in detail. Thanks to the effective joint work of our three countries, the terrorist threat and the level of violence in the Syrian Arab Republic has been steadily decreasing in recent years. The main forces of ISIS and other groups that ruled in this country were defeated. The legitimate authorities have regained control of most of the country’s territory.
It is important that the participants of the meeting spoke in favor of continuing cooperation in the fight against any manifestations of terrorism and extremism until the complete elimination of this threat in Syria and neighboring countries. We will continue to closely monitor and clearly suppress the use by external forces of militants located on Syrian territory to solve their own selfish geopolitical tasks both in the Middle East region as a whole and beyond.
It was in this context that the difficult situation in the north-east of Syria, in the Euphrates, where, with the support of a number of countries, attempts are being made to consolidate the illegal foreign military presence and incite separatist sentiments in violation of the sovereignty of the Syrian state.
The Russian side confirmed the principled position that the Euphrates should return to the control of the legitimate government of Syria.
When considering the problems of humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people, we proceeded from the premise that such assistance should be carried out in strict accordance with international law and the UN Charter. It is important to help all, all Syrians without exception to return to normal life.
In this regard, we once again call on the international community, especially the UN humanitarian agency, to increase support for Syria through the implementation of projects for the restoration of basic infrastructure, water and electricity supply, schools, hospitals, as well as demining projects. The successful solution of these tasks will create conditions for the safe and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their places of permanent residence.
Ladies and gentlemen,
During my stay in Iran, the Russian delegation and I personally also had very useful bilateral talks. At the meeting with the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mr. Ali Khamenei, strategic issues of Russian-Iranian relations were touched upon. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to their further full development in a truly good-neighbourly and mutually beneficial manner. Readiness for constructive partnership in resolving acute regional and international problems was expressed.
In a conversation with President of Iran, Raisi discussed in detail specific aspects of bilateral cooperation in the political and economic fields. Particular attention was paid to strengthening cooperation in energy, industry and transport. We agreed to implement major joint projects and step up the use of national currencies in direct settlements between our countries.
As for the situation around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear programme, our representatives are in constant contact. We consider it important to continue our efforts to preserve the nuclear deal and create conditions for the resumption of its sustainable implementation on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. In addition, we consider it necessary that, in the event of the restoration of the joint plan, all its participants should be guaranteed equal rights with regard to the unimpeded development of cooperation in any field and without any discrimination.
At a bilateral meeting with President of Turkey Mr Erdogan, it was stated that Russian-Turkish cooperation is developing dynamically in various areas. I would like to note that they also discussed food security and cooperation to facilitate the supply of both Russian and Ukrainian grain to world markets. At the same time, satisfaction was expressed with the meeting held on July 13 in this regard in Istanbul.
In conclusion, I would like to once again express my gratitude to our Iranian and Turkish partners for the substantive and productive talks, as well as to thank Mr Raisi for his hospitality and the wonderful organisation of our meetings.
I am confident that the decisions taken at the summit will contribute to the final establishment of peace and stability both in Syria and in the region as a whole. Taking into account the fact that the next summit of the Astana Troika is expected to be held in our country in turn, I invited Iranian and Turkish friends to come to Russia.
A Joint Statement was also released that mostly concerned the Syrian issue. Point 12 IMO was the most important, although some opinions will differ:
“12. Condemned Israel’s ongoing military attacks in Syria, including on civilian targets. We considered these actions to violate international law, international humanitarian law, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and also recognized them as destabilizing and increasing tensions in the region. We reaffirmed the need to respect universally recognized international legal decisions, including the provisions of the relevant UN resolutions rejecting the occupation of the Syrian Golan, primarily UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 497, according to which all Israeli decisions and steps in this regard are considered invalid and null and void.”
I imagine at some point a presser will be held.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 19 2022 22:24 utc | 55
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