Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 30, 2022

How China Warns Of Pelosi's Taiwan Trip

Three days ago a mandarin speaker posted an interesting thread about the use of Chinese language phrases to express a threat.

Wen-Ti Sung @wentisung - 5:29 UTC · Jul 27, 2022

A short thread on China's #rhetoric on @SpeakerPelosi 's rumored plan to visit Taiwan. So far Beijing's wording has been far below the threshold of the kinds of words & phrases that China historically used for signaling impending war/brinkmanship.

Let's start with MFA spokesperson's recent words: "China will act strongly to resolutely respond to it and take countermeasures. We mean what we say" (中方必將採取有力措施予以堅決應對和反制。我們說到做到) Many observers take 'forceful response' to mean war. That may be overselling it. Note his key operative words '有力' can mean 'forceful' or 'effective'. If they meant war, they would have said '武力 or 非和平' (military/non-peaceful measures).

China's rhetoric is currently in say borderline 3rd gear. Another level up would be #懸崖勒馬, or "you are standing on the edge of the cliff". Translation: if you take more one step, you'll fall and die". That's unfortunate, but the cliff is a wonder of nature, not a man-made trap. So the fall is partly a tragedy of circumstance. So next levels focus on anthropogenic factors.

Next up, we have '是可忍孰不可忍', or "if we could put up with this, what else can't we put up with?". This means the perceived provocation from others not only threatens China's interests, but threatens its #identity, too. This rhetoric invokes the familiar 'century of humiliation' and Chinese nationalism narratives, and are meant to signal China has no room to back down. It shows a readiness to use #brinkmanship. E.g. China used this language before skirmishes with India (1962), Vietnam (1979).

Finally, top gear is '勿謂言之不預', literally "don't say I didn't warn you", aka 'last warning'. China used this language before skirmishes with India, Vietnam, and Soviet Union (1967).

In short, China's current language is tough but far from its toughest. It can mean either:
1) China is still deciding what to do, so they keep harsher words in reserve for now. OR
2) China is trying (not too successfully) to make it less costly for Pelosi & US to back down.

The upcoming Biden-Xi phone call will tell us whether China has made up its mind, and whether the so-called strategic '#guardrails' they have built up -- precisely for containing these tactical-level turbulences from runaway escalation -- are effective.

The Chinese English language readout for the Biden -Xi phone call does not use any of the above phrases. The most 'threatening' part is this:

China firmly opposes separatist moves toward “Taiwan independence” and interference by external forces, and never allows any room for “Taiwan independence” forces in whatever form. The position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people. The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.

That is a warning of self harm, not a threat of an active measure. It is thereby on a "you are standing on the edge of the cliff" level, serious but not harsh. 

But then I recognized a phrase mentioned in the above tweets when it appeared as the centerl top headline of the Global Times homepage.


bigger

Don’t say we didn’t warn you – Symposium of China’s top think tank sends classic, pre-war warning to provocative Pelosi

"Don't say we didn't warn you!" - a phrase that was used by the People's Daily in 1962 before China was forced to fight the border war with India and ahead of the 1979 China-Vietnam War, was frequently mentioned during a forum held Friday by a high-level Chinese think tank, as analysts warned that open military options and comprehensive countermeasures ranging from the economy to diplomacy from China await if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gambles with a visit to the Taiwan island during her Asia tour.
...

As far as I know the top gear phrase meaning 'last warning' has not yet been used by official government sources. But the top think tanks in China are all official, not corrupt private clubs like most U.S. think tanks are. The Global Times is the CPC's major English language outlet and it posted the phrase at the top of its homepage. Does that not in itself make it somewhat official?

The spokesperson of the Chinese military has said there would definitely be military responses to a trip. But that could be some maneuvers or fly-bys, not a war.

Pelosi is traveling in Asia on a U.S. military plane. That plane is unlikely to fly to Taiwan which is in Beijing's understanding part of China's air space. Pelosi will most likely use a civilian plane, maybe even a regular scheduled on, to fly from Singapore to Taiwan. Most likely in the middle of next week.

If the Chinese learn which flight she is on they can use a number of counter measures and/or divert the flight.

If she turns up in Taipei without intervention the Chinese government will lose some face and will have to think of other measures it can enact. Some missiles flying towards Taiwan to then drop into the sea might be a possibility. The Global Times piece above mentions others.

The visit is not necessary and risks creating a conflict that could be greatly damaging to the U.S., China and the global economy.

It is a stupid thing to do.

Posted by b on July 30, 2022 at 17:39 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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That bitch Pelosi has been hugging her congressional seat by crooked means for decades. Just like Biden she would not be in office, were it not for her tribal mob connections. That is the real scandal: mobsters posing as elected officials, and we even call them by their titles.

Posted by: xeen | Jul 30 2022 17:46 utc | 1

If there is a military crisis between the US and China over Taiwan then Iran will use the oppotunity to build the bomb and delivery system. With the US distracted Iran could pull it off without being attacked by the US. After Iran has acquired the nuclear detterence, Israel and the US will never again be able to threaten Iran with massive bombing.

Posted by: grapes | Jul 30 2022 17:46 utc | 2

Stupid is as stupid does. ~Forest, Forest Gump

Posted by: Sakineh~ Bagoom | Jul 30 2022 17:50 utc | 3

Posted by: grapes | Jul 30 2022 17:46 utc | 2
Iran has a Fatwa AGAINST nuclear weapons. So they will NOT build such bombs.
And even without a Fatwa, where would they use them ? In their own garden ? In Iraq ?

Posted by: marcel | Jul 30 2022 18:00 utc | 4

Posted by: marcel | Jul 30 2022 18:00 utc | 4
---------

On USA...
Iraq will clap...
Libya too!
Even, Pakistan...😏

Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 18:03 utc | 5

China's Anti-Secession Law is the legal framework for their response to Pelosi's impudence.

Pelosi will be used like Jimmy Lai.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 30 2022 18:03 utc | 6

Anyone know what the dates of Pelosi’s trip are, even approximately?

Posted by: Hickory | Jul 30 2022 18:09 utc | 7

The problem with the sort of language that China uses is that it sounds worse in English than whatever was intended. Thus, after this retarded Pelosi visit goes ahead and China does nothing other than hurl a few missiles into the ocean in response, which was all they meant to do to begin with, everyone in the US will smirk and go 'Playing with fire my ass! They crapped it and backed down again! America! Fuck yeah!"

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Jul 30 2022 18:12 utc | 8

they can cripple the US without firing a bullet and they know it. going kinetic is a last resort when sanctions, tariffs and travel bans can be the match that lights up the pile of dry tinder that is the western economy at this point. as i've said many times when talking about chinese strategy: "this shit ain't checkers, it's chess". or go in this case, i guess.

as for sino-semantics it seems like there are plenty of potential translators who could inform the state department or whomever about this nuance but they are getting driven out by "OMG all chinese are spies" hysteria. that's what happens in a culture where divergent ideas are "literally assault", i guess.

Posted by: the pair | Jul 30 2022 18:15 utc | 9

@marcel | Jul 30 2022 18:00 utc | 4
«Iran has a Fatwa AGAINST nuclear weapons. So they will NOT build such bombs.
And even without a Fatwa, where would they use them ? In their own garden ? In Iraq ?»

Apart from a few lunatic USA/Western NeoCons, no one else is in favor of using nuclear weapons. But to have a few with good delivery missiles is a way to avoid being invaded. No need to use them, just have them.

That's why Iraq was invaded, but not North Korea. The weapons of mass destruction are indeed USA/NATO's greatest nightmare. Because if a country acquires them, that country is no longer invadeable... and that really pisses of NeoCon lunatics.

The day Multipolar World makes sure all USA/NATO's enemies have nuclear weapons or are protected under Defende agreements with nuclear power, is the day there will be no more wars in the world. It's the day USA bankrupts...

Right now, Russia and China and others are trying to do this as much as possible with just conventional weapons. But if USA keeps asking for it, they will answer. Quoting the Chinese: don't say we didn't warn you!

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jul 30 2022 18:15 utc | 10

What has been made perfectly clear:

1. Taiwan is part of China. This is internationally recognized and has been since all the way back to soon after WWII.

2. China does not want Pelosi to "visit", and certainly not for her publicly expressed purpose of sedition and promises of military support from the US for such a purpose.

3. China will act in its sovereign interest on this and every other matter and if it so wishes it will be with any degree of violence of its choosing.

4. China repeatedly and consistently states points 1 to 3 and has done so every since the "one China" policy came into force a long time ago.

Simple, unambiguous, and clear.

There is nothing to not understand in the above.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 30 2022 18:16 utc | 11

Hickory | Jul 30 2022 18:09 utc | 7

old fart's schedule, dates and destinations is secret but the tour happens these days, next week. She's in honolulu now, changing her diapers

Posted by: rk | Jul 30 2022 18:18 utc | 12

It is interesting that the Pelosi trip is on a weekend and is rumored to start with the Taiwan visit part.

The part of me that says this was scripted also says that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan, on Monday China will start dumping US Treasuries in a Tit-for-Tat unwinding of the Nixon agreement from 70+ years ago.

The revolution is just getting under way, and yet, it just might be over quickly.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 30 2022 18:21 utc | 13

Minus the "y" in "every"; it should be "ever since". It slipped through my previewing.

To be concise I deleted the first paragraph about language, nuance, and Shannon's law and then Shannon's law strikes with a tiny bit of help from Murphy's law :P

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 30 2022 18:25 utc | 14

"Pelosi will most likely use a civilian plane, maybe even a regular scheduled on, to fly from Singapore to Taiwan." -- that is exactly what I was thinking. However, I also think that a move like that signals that the US knows it is doing something wrong, sort of like a grounded teenager that is trying to sneak out of the house (not a very dignified stand).

Posted by: Maracatu | Jul 30 2022 18:28 utc | 15

Several possible ways for Pelosi to travel to Taiwan: hotly discussed in Chinese Internet:

1. Private plane (alone, without military escort), from Korea/Japan: Will be too easy for Chinese to detect and too easy for Chinese fighters to harass. The consequence of calling off the flight midway will be too humiliating.

2. Private/military plane (with military escort), from Korea/Japan: Easy to detect, hard for Chinese to harass. Most likely Chinese fighters will follow US fighters towards the boundary of Taiwan airspace, and then
a. US fighters leave, Chinese fighters follow Pelosi plane into Taiwan airspace. This will change the status quo of Taiwan forever.
b. US fighters enter Taiwan airspace: Technically, this is a military invasion, and the consequence is war. So, US is highly unlikely to do this.

3. Private plane from other places (e.g. Singapore, Guam) with or without military escort: similar to the above, except that this will be harder for Chinese to detect. But it also signal weakness on US side.

4. Commercial plane: will be hard for Chinese to harass. But the consequences will be serious for the particular commercial airline.

5. Private plane, making an "emergency stop" in Taiwan due to "technical problem" on the way to Singapore/Malaysia or returning to US: Hard for Chinese to stop. But technically this is no longer a "visit", and the significance of the "visit" is greatly reduced.

Chinese could supplement all the above with additional measures too: live firing exercise, missile practices, economic sanctions, ...

Many Chinese actually express the hope that Pelosi will come to Taiwan, but believe it is likely "cancelled" due to bad weather (hurricane in the East China Sea currently) or other reasons. Monkeypox this time? LOL

In all scenarios, US is likely going to lose credibility a lot more than China.

Posted by: d dan | Jul 30 2022 18:28 utc | 16

Stupid is as stupid does. ~Forest, Forest Gump
Posted by: Sakineh~ Bagoom | Jul 30 2022 17:50 utc

"Stupid should hurt" On the front of Zelenski's and Pelosi's T-shirts

"Kick me" On the back.

Posted by: Old canadian | Jul 30 2022 18:29 utc | 17

It is foolish that neither the US nor China has taken my suggestion that they relocate the part of Taiwan's population that seeks independence. Keeping them there has been a needless source of East-West friction since the 1940s. Neither government's officials even replied, so hopefully they stole the idea and passed it along as their own.

Either those very productive people could be relocated to other countries they prefer, or China/US could purchase land for them perhaps in that region to create a New Taiwan. I suggested the large underpopulated island of New Britain in PNG, but other possibilities exist. A nation like Mexico or Brazil would greatly benefit by accommodating such an population.

Of course infrastructure, homes and commercial facilities must be built, but China could pay for that in exchange for the Taiwan property of emigrants.

Note also that Taiwan and the Donbas republics are nearly symmetrical situations of cessation, in which East and West take opposite positions. But Donbas is historically Russian and Taiwan is historically Chinese. Donbas v. Taiwan are not readily swapped (populations 4,000,000 v. 14,000,000 and land area 26,000 v. 14,000 sq km), but analogous resolutions are possible.

Posted by: Sam F | Jul 30 2022 18:33 utc | 18

You forgot to mention the Prepare for war! post by the People's Liberation Army.

PLA’s post ‘Preparing for war’ draws wide support from netizens ahead of Army Day - Global Times, July 29, 2022

"Preparing for war!" This short social media post by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) 80th Group Army generated over 300,000 thumbs-up in 12 hours on Friday, amid high morale among Chinese soldiers ahead of the 95th anniversary of the founding of the PLA and escalating tensions across the Taiwan Straits.

The post on Sina Weibo had received more than 19,000 comments as of press time, with many netizens commenting excitedly "PLA soldiers, fighting! We support you guys!"

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 30 2022 18:39 utc | 19

The two ships headed directly at the reader seem to make the same point as the headline.

Still (and speaking as someone with no expertise in diplomatic locutions), I wonder if it is significant that this "final" warning comes from a news outlet in the context of a "think tank" session, and not directly from an identified official with executive authority. Are they trying to leave some room to back down?

Posted by: natureboy | Jul 30 2022 18:44 utc | 20

@Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 30 2022 18:21 utc | 13

The part of me that says this was scripted also says that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan, on Monday China will start dumping US Treasuries in a Tit-for-Tat unwinding of the Nixon agreement from 70+ years ago. The revolution is just getting under way, and yet, it just might be over quickly.

The US$ looks about ready to roll over on the charts, and the Fed is far behind the eight-ball on getting anywhere near real interest rates (interest rates higher than inflation) and actually can't go there given the debt house of cards that would collapse, so a great time to help the US$ on a southward journey. That will intensify US domestic inflation, put pressure on US interest rates (the Fed will have to buy the debt that China sells, possibly hidden through "foreign holdings" of offshore centres), and destroy an awful lot of the fake wealth of the US 1%.

Also a nice shot across the bows for the incoming Republican majority in both houses of Congress, and removing the US$s that the US government can steal, just like the Russian foreign exchange reserves. Then the Chinese should buy gold and silver with the proceeds, providing major issues for the Western bullion banks. Setting up nicely for the SCO alternative reserve currency, and foreign exchange, arrangements.

There are so many levers open to the Chinese to mess with the US, while China keeps removing the levers that the US has.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 30 2022 18:49 utc | 21


...Taiwan which is in Beijing's understanding part of China's air space...If the Chinese learn which flight she is on they can use a number of counter measures and/or divert the flight...If she turns up in Taipei without intervention the Chinese government will lose some face...

Why the fuss with finding out when she flies to TW and from where? If she's there, MSM will trumpet it triumphantly. Otherwise the whole trip misses its purpose. Then PRC can impose a no-fly zone. Keep the bitch on the island, demand her extradition, then and only then, alas, ... outbound flights may continue. If they decide to keep her, TW air traffic remains grounded. Many will sigh in relief and pray that she stays put. Even more will find out that her absence does'nt make a difference...

Posted by: OttoE | Jul 30 2022 18:52 utc | 22

Posted by: d dan | Jul 30 2022 18:28 utc | 16

Many Chinese actually express the hope that Pelosi will come to Taiwan, but believe it is likely "cancelled" due to bad weather (hurricane in the East China Sea currently) or other reasons. Monkeypox this time? LOL

Many Americans on Twitter actually express the hope that Pelosi will try to fly to Taiwan and that the PLA will shoot down her plane.

The vote in the House on a ban on "assault weapons" did not go well with about half of Americans.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 30 2022 18:56 utc | 23

In response to
"
There are so many levers open to the Chinese to mess with the US, while China keeps removing the levers that the US has.

Posted by: Roger | Jul 30 2022 18:49 utc | 21
"

Thanks for the follow up. Yes, China has lots of choices but extracting manipulation from commodities/precious metals markets may prove difficult but necessary if any included in backing for intrinsic value money.

Interesting times indeed.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 30 2022 18:58 utc | 24

The stage is now set: one side would have to eat crow, either the Empire or Cathay.

Pelosi and her entourage have played this script way too high for her to backdown. See what Fox is saying about GOP egging the witch on:

https://news.google.com/topstories?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

Cathay has hyped its intended response if and when the witch's trip come to pass. The highness of pitch and sternness of Cathay's protests over the past 10 days have been unprecedented in my memory. The vast majority of its population are now aware of what the government has vowed to do. No way Cathay can squirm out of this without delivering a big bang.

So, the second front to the one in central Europe will open, unless one of them between the Empire or Cathay will ultimately back down. Furthermore, this second front will surpass the central European picnic-war (picnic for the Russian side:-) in intensity and spectacle. This event may well end the presence of the Empire in West Pacific, for good.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jul 30 2022 19:05 utc | 25

I don't think China takes the USA threat as seriously as b does. I'm confident the Chinese will be happy to make Pelosi look like just another pompous, juvenile Yankee political fuckwit who believes too much of her own bullshit.
I've heard her speak in Congress. She thinks she's everyone's Mum but she's just a silly old Moo - as Alf Garnett might have said...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 30 2022 19:07 utc | 26

Alexander Mercouris with Alex Christoforou on The Duran:

Xi to Biden, 'You are playing with fire,' as tensions over Pelosi's Taiwan trip escalates

Also see the second part of Alexander Mercouris' video from yesterday.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 30 2022 19:07 utc | 27

FWIW, the backroom tale on how Pelosi rose in the (D) party, was that (perhaps after seeing Clinton take China money in 1996 with no reprecussions) she was to first to definitively shrug her shoulders at laundered Mexican drug money as campaign contributions. Others might have done it prior, but holding their nose. Not Pelosi, on the latter point. And fund raising speaks volumes in leadership, so she rose in the ranks.

Posted by: She's Ruthless | Jul 30 2022 19:10 utc | 28

I pasted the wrong link in my #25 above. Here's the one I intended:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/if-china-threats-pelosi-lead-actual-harm-declaration-war-republican

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jul 30 2022 19:11 utc | 29

Imagine being an American.

A country where even Scottish and Australian mainstream movies in their shared language of ENGLISH had to be dubbed (I clearly recall seeing Mad Max, all dubbed with American accents, hired from a video store in 'global metropolis' NYC, not Alabama or Idaho, the year was 2000)

Even more recent examples of successful, acclaimed and commercially proven shows like 'The Office' were re-produced and re-cast with American actors, presumably to appease studio execs' concerns about appeal to local audiences, so 'foreign' was the original material.

Now try to imagine the challenge of these single digit IQ ignorant morons must have in deciphering a language that doesn't share even the same alphabet, let alone vocabulary, culture, values, history or world views. Then add their inability conceive foreign cultures as equal in standing to their own, notwithstanding their deficits in heritage, achievement and experience in most cases of not just centuries, but millennia.

This is the world we live in, where in order to save it, we must accommodate for the inadequacies of those currently empowered with the greatest potential to ruin it. We must let them live on in the illusion that their role in it will be maintained by the oppression of anyone trying rise above them, effectively suppressing everyone else's rise, lest their own flaws, ignorance and utter incompetence ever be exposed.

Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 30 2022 19:17 utc | 30

In 2018 midterm elections Republicans deliberately gave the House back to their pal Pelosi and Democrats. "Republican" House Speaker Paul Ryan, fan of Open Borders & Endless wars, deliberately left 38 races empty, no Republican on the ballot. Only 3 races lacked a Dem. Ryan wanted to show GOP voters who's boss. Dems won back the House, GOP was happy. Until 1994 the House had been controlled for 40 straight years by Dems. This was only interrupted because Rush Limbaugh came along on the radio and more or less shamed them into temporarily pretending that they cared. From 1955-1980, (25 yrs) Democrats controlled both the House and Senate.In 34 of 40 years from 1954 through 1994 Democrats controlled both House and Senate. Why? There's no money behind what GOP voters want, ie closed borders and no wars. "Both" parties have same open borders, endless wars agenda. When GOP is in minority and their voters beg them to do something, they can use the excuse that Dems are in charge. US operates more like monarchy than a democracy.

Posted by: susan mullen | Jul 30 2022 19:27 utc | 31

Could be Pelosi's threat to visit Taiwan is just that--a threat. Pushing on China to find out how far the U.S. can go. She may bail out at the last moment. More COVID or something. But I don't expect such subtlety--dishonesty yes but not subtlety--from the U.S.

Posted by: Cesar Jeopardy | Jul 30 2022 19:28 utc | 32

Pelosi Plane Disappears From Radar

SPAR19, a United States Air Force Boeing C-40 Clipper aircraft thought to be carrying Nancy Pelosi, has disappeared from flight tracking service FlightRadar24 after being monitored by as many as 79,000 users at one point.

Source: https://sputniknews.com/20220730/info-on-plane-suspected-to-be-carrying-pelosi-apparently-yanked-from-flightradar-after-being-1097962287.html

Posted by: Arvy | Jul 30 2022 19:33 utc | 33

Latest news: beloved Robinette has covid again. Maybe Trancy has it too again.

Posted by: rk | Jul 30 2022 19:37 utc | 34

Pelosi has a close relationship with the NED:

2018 video: Max Blumenthal from «Grayzone» attends Capitol Hill NED-gathering. Pelosi also attended the meeting (from 20:25)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzIJ25ob1aA

Pelosi 2013: Remarks at NED (speech)
https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/pelosi-remarks-national-endowment-democracy

Background info:
NED was founded by U.S. Congress resolution H.R. 2915 (H.R. means House Resolution). Wikipedia: «H.R. 2915 was adopted by the House on November 17, 1983 and the Senate the following day»:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Endowment_for_Democracy
The same year the Reagan administration appointed professor Allen Weinstein to be one of NED’s co-founders. Later on Sept. 22, 1991 The Washington Post wrote in the interview: «Innocence Abroad: The New World Of Spyless Coups»: «‘A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the C I A,’ agrees Weinstein.»
https://web.archive.org/web/20200413071330if_/https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1991/09/22/innocence-abroad-the-new-world-of-spyless-coups/92bb989a-de6e-4bb8-99b9-462c76b59a16/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1991/09/22/innocence-abroad-the-new-world-of-spyless-coups/92bb989a-de6e-4bb8-99b9-462c76b59a16/">https://web.archive.org/web/20200413071330if_/https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1991/09/22/innocence-abroad-the-new-world-of-spyless-coups/92bb989a-de6e-4bb8-99b9-462c76b59a16/
Or: http://colorrevolutionsandgeopolitics.blogspot.com/2011/05/from-archives-innocence-abroad-new.html
Gerald Sussman wrote in his book «Branding Democracy: U.S. Regime Change in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe» the following about the NED: «It’s purpose was to channel money, equipment, political consultants, and other expertise to other countries in order ’to strengthen democratic electoral process … through timely measures in cooperation with indigenous democratic forces’.» (Damsrosh 1989, 19)
https://www.amazon.com/Branding-Democracy-Post-Soviet-Frontiers-Communication/dp/1433105314

Posted by: Rolf | Jul 30 2022 19:39 utc | 35

Posted by: marcel | Jul 30 2022 18:00 utc | 4

The fatwa will be removed when it comes time to move quickly to get the bomb and missile to deliver it. Iran will use nuclear weapons as a deterrence. So the US and Israel will stop threatening to massively bomb them. Iran needs a huge distraction that gives them a 3 month window. Just waiting for the right time.

Posted by: grapes | Jul 30 2022 19:42 utc | 36

@She's Ruthless, #28:

I believe Pelosi made herself a "Name" in 1991, at Tiananmen Square, openly voicing support for democracy and blasting the CPC for the 1989 June event. She's from San Francisco, and in those days 90+% of Chinese in San Francisco are supporters (and related in business too) of KMT. Pelosi's performance won her support of the Chinese constituents. In those days also, voters of Chinese ethnicity composed about 20% of the San Francisco voters.

On that platform, she got elected term after term. In USA politics, power positions in Congress depends on seniority. So, after a few re-elections she became a senior CongressWitch. Seniority breeds more support from the precinct's voters because it means easier access to the pork barrels. So on and so forth. She's now the Speaker. Even those who hate her in San Francisco would not want her to leave Congress now. Only way is for Dem to lose in Nov. But even then she would still be the most senior minority Dem CongressWitch sitting on important $money committees etc.

But then again, she's 82+, and Mother Nature is catching up with her.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jul 30 2022 19:44 utc | 37

D dan,

You only consider Pelosi going to Taiwan by plane.

Why couldn't she go by sea, either in a commercial freighter or in a submarine?

Posted by: Lysias | Jul 30 2022 19:45 utc | 38

How effective a deterrent will Iran's possessing nukes be if it's known that Iran is under a fatwa prohibiting using nukes?

Posted by: Lysias | Jul 30 2022 19:53 utc | 39

Maracatu | Jul 30 2022 18:28 utc | 15

Nice comparison!

I think I will always understand the teenager sneaking out of the house, however silly the reason may be. It will be worth the follow-up grounding.

In contrast to this, I absolutely fail to see Pelosi's reason. Maybe it is delusion, or the urge to be in the limelight. But career-wise, there's absolutely no reason for her to make such a dangerous foreign-policy stunt. Her Californian seat is safe, unfortunately. If she says she wants to stay in the House, she'll get re-elected, period. Chances are she'll also be made minority leader. So I'm suspecting she's doing it at the behest of opaque forces that view US control over Taiwan as vital for the future. Must have been suggested to her, or she was downright chosen.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 30 2022 19:55 utc | 40

Why doesn't China start doing this to Alaska and Scotland (sending officials on visits), see how the War Meddlers like it (US, UK)?

Posted by: CallMeZi | Jul 30 2022 20:25 utc | 41

xeen @ 1
That bitch Pelosi has been hugging her congressional seat by crooked means for decades.

Not at all. It is in San Francisco and it is safely hers until she retires or dies.

Pelosi will most likely use a civilian plane, maybe even a regular scheduled one, to fly from Singapore to Taiwan.

It would be tough for China to knock down a civilian plane and come out looking good. Clearly the focus of the trip is going to be on Taiwan whether she goes or not. Maybe that was the goal in itself. Sound out the allies in the region and report back to Congress. It is the one thing both sides always work together on; war.

What would follow is a large military aid package. Of course, rubbing China's nose in dung again makes them feel important as well.

Posted by: circumspect | Jul 30 2022 20:27 utc | 42

Lysias | Jul 30 2022 19:53 utc | 38

She won't go by submarine, there are moveable mountains down there that get in the way.
**

I think she will go to Taiwan. It is not by accident that Biden has again been placed in confinement (Bunkered). He must not be allowed to mumble jumble something stupid at the wrong moment.

I also think that what the US is trying to do is to find some reason to put missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads on the island. (Aegis and first strike capabilities?). The US "Protection" racket at it's most blunt would call for an even closer means of pressure on the Chinese CPC. I do not think that they will succeed easily, but it fits into the "expansionist" ethos of the WH and evil Minions.
***

It may not have worked with Ukraine and the Russians, but, hey, they don't have any new scripts to work from.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 30 2022 20:28 utc | 43

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 30 2022 18:25 utc | 14

Anything mentioning Claude Shannon has my respect. I believe the last three true geniuses of theoretical physics were Einstein (associating energy and matter), Heisenberg (associating matter and information) and Shannon (associating information and energy). The "Mathematical Theory of Communication" remains a minor miracle IMO.

Posted by: T Paine | Jul 30 2022 20:37 utc | 44

The American Empire is basically a death cult disguised as a "democracy."

The Americans are not content with poking the Russia Bear through their Ukrainian stooges and subsequently provoking war there.

These Americans also want to poke the Chinese dragon through their Taiwanese stooges and thus possibly provoking war there as well.

What explains this insane behavior?

Deep down, America believes that it has a God-given right to rule the world, which they rationalize and disguise behind Goebbelsian propaganda about defending freedom, democracy, or a Rules-Based International Order.

Never mind that America itself is NOT a democracy but rather a capitalist oligarchy in terms of domestic policy and a world dictatorship in terms of foreign policy.

This quasi-religious delusion that America is the Shining City on a Hill that was divinely chosen to lead the world--whether the world likes it or not--is fundamental to Americans' cultural and political DNA.

Any country that opposes this messianic American world dictatorship will be subjected to war in one way or another--whether that be proxy war, Hybrid War, Cold War, or Hot War.

Posted by: ak74 | Jul 30 2022 20:53 utc | 45

Pelosi's flight:

*********************************************************************************************
China Airlines CI 52
Sydney to Taipei City
Sat, Jul 30Sun, Jul 31Mon, Aug 1Tue, Aug 2
10:10 p.m.
SCHEDULED
CI 52
Taipei City TPE
flight duration
9h 30min
SYD
TPE
Sydney · Sat, Jul 30
Scheduled departure
10:10 p.m.
Terminal
1
Gate
-
Taipei City · Sun, Jul 31
Scheduled arrival
5:40 a.m.
Terminal
2
Gate
-
Updated 10h 33min ago
Source:
FlightAware
****************************************************************************************

?

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jul 30 2022 20:55 utc | 46

If China were to simply turn all of its ocean shipping vessels around, US people would suddenly find the shelves of Amazon and Walmart empty of their necessary provisions. A fate worse than even war.

Posted by: RKJoyce - Prophet | Jul 30 2022 21:09 utc | 47

Posted by b on July 30, 2022 at 17:39 UTC | Permalink

"The visit is not necessary and risks creating a conflict that could be greatly damaging to the U.S., China and the global economy. It is a stupid thing to do."

I suspect that the upshot of all this will be the mutual introduction of China-US-West sanctions regime so that within a few months the West will be under complete geopolitical siege with both her inner and outer strength visibly sapping each passing month.


Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 30 2022 21:17 utc | 48

Wen-Ti Sung @wentisung - 5:29 UTC · Jul 27, 2022

Thanks your contribution to understanding the human world; a clear explanation on understanding language and the perils of translation and mis-translation.

Posted by: chu teh | Jul 30 2022 21:17 utc | 49

We have no way of knowing what Pelosi will actually do--but assuming she goes to Taiwan it will be a provocation which will elicit a response from China. It is in the interest of the Democrats in Congress to create a crisis between the US and China in time for the election--should China respond with any kind of military response on the US this will likely galvanize much of the public to favor the war-mongers' party which is the Democrat Party. Many crises at once means, usually, stay the course and Democrats are likely to have a good chance in November. Much is going their way in Washington and possibly in the rest of the country in terms of PR and propaganda. The propaganda organs which are clearly run by the Democrat Party and the CIA (basically the same thing) will be getting some traction with the public particularly if the Chinese respond in some fairly dramatic way. I suggest they hold off until after November.

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Jul 30 2022 21:20 utc | 50

US are wanting to sanction China similar to Russia. Perhaps this stunt is about creating an incident for that purpose, but the stupidity is on par for Biden admin dementia/demented decision making process.

Greg Galloway | Jul 30 2022 20:55 utc | 45
That looks about right. I see the old girl made it as far as Honolulu before needing a rest and thought there would probably be another destination for the next section from where she would head to Taiwan. Australia for the next stop seems likely as she would do a bit of anti China rabble rousing while here.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 30 2022 21:23 utc | 51

@ Lycias, 37.
Or, she could travel on her broomstick...

Posted by: Sean | Jul 30 2022 21:27 utc | 52

The Outlaw US Empire's Congress has introduced a bi-partisan bill to arm Taiwan in the same manner it's now arming Ukraine which can now be read at RT, "US lawmakers introduce bill to arm Taiwan: The ‘Lend-Lease Act’ mirrors legislation signed by President Biden to supply Ukraine with weapons." RT URLs block comments, which is why there's no link.

What seems very apparent to me is the Outlaw US Empire will do anything to prevent Peace from becoming the planet's norm and will continue to kill millions to get its way. At the same time the rest of the world is finally standing up to the Bully. Clearly, one side will need to change its ways to avoid confrontation. Unfortunately, I don't see the old War Horses within the Outlaw US Empire who think they won the Cold War and thus have the right to kill as many as they want to upkeep their dominance yielding as they're clearly doubling-down yet again. As one RT op/ed's headlined, "Pelosi’s possible Taiwan visit will not lead to war – yet." [My Emphasis]

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 30 2022 21:44 utc | 53

Hot heads from across the Pacific …

Hu, former editor-in-chief of state tabloid Global Times, wrote on China's microblog Weibo: "I've conveyed the message: if the U.S. military sends fighter jets to escort Pelosi to Taiwan, then the move would take the vile nature of such a visit to another level, and would constitute aggression."

If Pelosi were to visit Taiwan, Hu, a nationalist firebrand with a wide Twitter following, wrote, "Our fighter jets should deploy all obstructive tactics. If those are still ineffective, I think it is okay too to shoot down Pelosi's plane."

Hu said he had to delete the tweet to unlock his Twitter account, which had been blocked as the tweet was deemed by Twitter to have violated the platform's rules and had to be removed by the account holder.

Posted by: Oui | Jul 30 2022 21:46 utc | 54

I do not think China will initiate any military action. Time is squarely working against the Empire of Lies, which is looking more effete and ridiculous by the minute. The Ukrainian misadventure as weakened the US and its Confederacy of Dunces militarily, economically and geopolitically.

I believe Lavrov said when asked a question in Tashkent, “Nothing will happen”.

Pelosi is a ridiculous caricature of a figure. Her symbolic visit is an empty gesture in the face of geopolitical realities and the march of time.

Posted by: Moses22 | Jul 30 2022 21:56 utc | 55

Yes, it would be alright to shoot down the Pelosi plane. Teach America a lesson. This is Asia, and naturally Asians don't like the Americans, maybe except some arse lickers. If/when it comes to a confrontation, India would back China, after all it is Asia vs America.

Posted by: ppp | Jul 30 2022 21:59 utc | 56

As with most things Chinese, there must be different levels to this crisis.
So the Chinese are OK with Pompeo, and the Taiwan authorities are also OK with Pompeo.
With Pelosi however, she seems to have invited herself to make the visit, there is no official word that I have come across from the Taiwan authorities as to the purpose of her visit, whether they want her there at all, and what she's going to do when she's there.
Side by side with that, the Chinese have gone ballistic with the news.
Nothing adds up.
Are we looking at some kind of a reverse takeover?

Posted by: Orchard1 | Jul 30 2022 22:10 utc | 57

A couple of relevant paragraphs from a Global times article of July 29.

There has been communication between China, Russia and the West. Yet, mutual trust between the two sides keeps nose-diving. The root cause is not communication, but the aggressive and overbearing manner of the West, led by the US, toward China and Russia. It is ridiculous to hype the scenario in which the West, China and Russia may stumble into an uncontrolled conflict, even a nuclear war, while Western powers are continuously provoking, blatantly disregarding all the warning signs set by the other two.

Russia has articulated multiple times that NATO's eastward expansion threatened its core security interests. Unfortunately, NATO crossed the line set by Moscow and blamed Russia afterward. In terms of the Taiwan question, China is making clear its red line. But the US seems to want to keep testing the limits. If the West does not wish to slip into a conflict with other major powers, they should start with some self-examination.


Four days after the start of the SMO in Ukraine "Putin orders "special service regime" in Russia’s deterrence force" (Feb 28). I take that to mean Russia's nuclear forces are on full combat alert for the duration.

karlof1 | Jul 30 2022 21:44 utc | 52
"At the same time the rest of the world is finally standing up to the Bully." Very much so. MBS treatment of Biden was a good example of that. Now it just remains to be seen if Pelosi is foolish enough to fly into Taiwan. Harris canceled her visit after strong warnings from China.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 30 2022 22:13 utc | 58

On the other hand, one should not dismiss a US false flag. Pelosi is expendable to Empire to rally support for the Democrats and to try to lead some sort of international “sanctions from hell” against China.

Posted by: Moses22 | Jul 30 2022 22:16 utc | 59

One thing about China that makes intentions sometimes hard to read is just how huge the country is and how, consequently, them requisitioning the large new civilian ferries in Fujian (The ones which have been speculated for years to be too large for their commercial purposes and obviously subsidised to provide additional military transport capacity), filling them with tanks and putting them on standby isn't really something that would be as big a deal for them to do even if they had no intention of using them.

In this way China can easily afford to do fairly drastic things in terms of posturing, marshaling huge numbers of people that we usually only associate with the US. This will become even more of an issue as China's military grows rapidly in a way that the global balance of power and perceptions have a harder time keeping up with.

Right now very sober conversations will be happening about if the US has already left it too late to confront China militarily like Germany feared wrt Russia prior to WW1. The neocons are unstable and insane. The central questions are, what does this means for Israel? Has Bari Weiss' nightmare come true and has social media wokeness, particularly in regards to invading countries after this war made it harder for Israel or the US to get away with invading other countries? (I'm not convinced social media on it's own produces these moral panics, it seems to need the feedback loop of the mainstream media and that is still under neocon veto control. Notice the lack of outrage over Israel doing anything since social media began having any impact.) And has US hegemony become sufficiently damaged by Russia's not falling into the trap they thought Ukraine would be to make it necessary to fight China now rather than later or allow it to 'peacefully rise' and lose their hegemony without a fight.

This is what scares me. The neocons will not let US hegemony go, they can't, it's needed to allow them to intervene on behalf of Israel.

Posted by: Altai | Jul 30 2022 22:33 utc | 60

I'm going to translate into Neocon China has just declared war against the U.S. and we must destroy them in self-defense

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Jul 30 2022 22:38 utc | 61

The CIA used to have an airline it would use for things like this. Fun fact, the plane in Die Hard 2 that was delivered to be used to transport the Noriega type and the pro-contra American glow in the darks who supported him was an Evergreen plane. Most likely this was because all of Evergreens planes were fairly idle and up for being hired for a movie because the CIA might need them at short notice so they didn't do a lot of flying.

But it does add a level of authenticity as to why the William Saddler character was so intent on the exact type of plane to be given over to them, as if the CIA and Evergreen were also in on the operation. Though the idea that the US spec forces and glow in the darks would be so loyal to a foreign proxy that they'd fight, die and exile themselves for him long after he'd served his usefulness is utterly ridiculous and misunderstands the whole relationship.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreen_International_Airlines

Not sure if they changed to a new one airline. Does anyone know?

Posted by: Altai | Jul 30 2022 22:53 utc | 62

"The Global Times is the CPC's major English language outlet and it posted the phrase at the top of its homepage. Does that not in itself make it somewhat official?"

The few anglos who even bothered to read *-Eng editions of Chinese press in the past 25 years have assigned that title to People's Daily (The "Official" organ), China Daily, and Xinhau. And of course dismissed their authenticity compared to G7 MSM--How dumb is that! All of these have at one time or the other (and still do) simultaneously published CPC PR, orthodox endorsement, guest OpEd, and long-format position papers along with int'l syndicated and original reporting. That said, one can connect directly to just about any gov.cn department site in *-Eng, lingua franca; they're not larded like US, UK with polemic and Web 5.0 "design" accessories though, ironically.

I strongly recommend it. G7 "readouts" of diplomatic comms involving CN are ass. Friday's call, for example, whitehouse: 150 words; China MFA: 619.

Global Times--a relatively new masthead, comparable to, say, Baidu, Weibo chat (once open, now closed to offshore registration b/c of universal security mania)--tops anglo charts primarily, because mangement launched into multiple, IP media A/V channels/platforms to counter western "Wuhan flu" propaganda with western-style format topical journalism, production values, feature "experts," and idiomatic *-Eng translation ostensibly to demonstrate "free expression". Caixin is another kind of special-purpose pub that crossed over (15 yrs) from a athoritave SOE business brief into multi-purpose, investor-relations subscription newsletter.

Bottom line is, if you want pick apart popular opinion, know that GOOG is the west-side gatekeeper, too. Leads to cantonese- and mandarin-heritage blogs.tld and social media.cn platforms don't fall off trees.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 30 2022 23:07 utc | 63

Posted by: Old canadian | Jul 30 2022 18:29 utc | 17

That reminds me of a t-shirt I saw decades ago in a catalog. The front says, "How to keep an idiot busy (see other side)." The back says, "How to keep an idiot busy (see other side)."

Posted by: David Levin | Jul 30 2022 23:18 utc | 64

Posted by: T Paine | Jul 30 2022 20:37 utc | 43

re geniuses and Claude Shannon /associating information and energy.

Shannon acknowledged Leo Szilard's 1922 PhD thesis [for von Laue] which showed Maxwell's Demon did not violate law of entropy, noting that thought/information as energy was indeed a factor. This was expanded and published about 1927. Thus Szilard, Wigner,vonNeumman, Einstein et al were aware in 1920s that thought/information could be viewed as involving energy.

By the way, it was Szilard who "imagined" that a cascade of neutron-release was possible to release the explosive, gigantic energy forces that bound the atom together, the "nuclear chain reaction".

He patented the concept with the British Admiralty about 1932 to be kept secret while Szilard covertly promoted research to determine if indeed such was true, knowing well the threat of Hitler's Germany and the very able theoretical physicists in Germany.

For example, he encouraged Lise Meitner [physicist] and her collaborator Otto Hahn [chemist] to experiment with causing neutron release. Meitner [Jewish] had to flee Germany just as experiments were showing "strange results" and went to Niels Bohr with the data, recognizing that the results meant they had split the atom! and, neutrons were released...but how many was still unknown.

By 1939, both French and German labs had split Uranium releasing neutrons so it was clear to some that a race was on to create a weapon. Finally in December 1942 Fermi's and Szilard's "pile" of uranium and carbon bricks produced the first sustained neutron chain reaction proving sufficient neutrons could be released and a neutron-chain-reaction weapon was a certainty.

Posted by: chu teh | Jul 30 2022 23:23 utc | 65

China Airlines CI 52 -- Sydney to Taipei City
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jul 30 2022 20:55 utc | 45

---

Can you imagine the people sharing this airplane ride with Pelosi?

I bet they are thrilled!

Posted by: too scents | Jul 30 2022 23:26 utc | 66

re my 364, above, in 3rd paragraph, should read ...bound the nucleus together...

Posted by: chu teh | Jul 30 2022 23:27 utc | 67

or as Hu hinted that this will give the chinese the chance to fly into the airspace of Taiwan and becomes the daily routine from now on to fly above Taiwan.

The other question is what would the Americans be hoping for to come form the chinese in thier response to this visit?

Posted by: Man | Jul 30 2022 23:29 utc | 68

Anyone know what the dates of Pelosi’s trip are, even approximately?
Posted by: Hickory | Jul 30 2022 18:09 utc | 7

According to Readovka 30 July reporting SPAR19 monitor, her C-40C landed in Honolulu at 01:13 PST. Don't know if that's 24 or 12 hr clock.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 30 2022 23:29 utc | 69

The education system of the United States, long and widely recognized as the worst in the collective West (with a bachelor's degree in the US being equivalent to a high school diploma in AU/NZ/CA/UK/EU countries), has given rise to a generation of people who lack the intellectual capability to understand the protocols of international diplomacy and the nuances of foreign language and culture - as seen in these American misunderstandings of Chinese warnings. This state of affairs behooves Americans to retreat from the world at large, reflect upon their mental deficiencies, correct course with a wholesale revision of their education system, apologize for a century of boorish behavior, and then approach the world once again with the appropriate humility.

Posted by: Eric | Jul 30 2022 23:31 utc | 70

China should put an end to this situation once and for all.
The longer they allow this ambiguous state to continue, the more the Taiwanese will feel separate and disconnected from the motherland.

China should set Taiwan an ultimatum: by September 1 all foreign military equipment and personnel have to be fully and permanently be removed from Taiwan, else it will be considered an attack on China.

China should also set Taiwan an ultimatum for a peaceful reintegration of Taiwan into China, say by the end of the year. They could use the HK agreements as a starting point and adapt them to Taiwan in order to save time. Negotiations start on September 1.

They should also make it clear to Taiwan that the generous 1 country - 2 systems concept with all its benefits and high degree of autonomy only applies to a peaceful reintegration.

Currently, they should immediately declare Pelosi a persona non grata in China, of which Taiwan is part. If she goes to Taiwan anyway, arrest and charge her. Her plane could even be considered an attacker.

But make sure she is on that plane to begin with, they might have put her on a regular plane in Hawaii, while everyone is tracking the other plane. Turn Taiwan into a no-fly zone, just to be sure...

Posted by: Nico | Jul 30 2022 23:46 utc | 71

If she goes to Taiwan anyway
Posted by: Nico | Jul 30 2022 23:46 utc | 70

---

Agreed! Pelosi should become a lesson.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 30 2022 23:56 utc | 72

Going to be a considerable loss of face if pelosi calls off the trip to taiwan, particularly as invites were sent out for various apparatchiks to join her.

Posted by: oh | Jul 30 2022 23:58 utc | 73

Below is a ZH posting quote


One day after hanging around a bunch of CEOs (without a mask), fully vaccinated President Joe Biden has once against tested positive for COVID-19 in a so-called 'rebound' case after being treated with Paxlovid, his physician said in a Saturday letter.

Biden is reported stating that he is going back into isolation for the safety of everyone around him.

Who is steering the ship of state? /s

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 31 2022 0:27 utc | 74

30 July evening at the asylum

NY Post | Russia silent as Red Cross, UN demand access to prison where dozens of Ukrainian POWs killed

Late Saturday, Russia’s Defense Ministry issued a list naming 48 Ukrainian fighters who died in the attack, aged 20 to 62. It was not immediately clear if the list was intended to be complete, suggesting that fewer people had died than initially stated, or if some names were missing.

Russia has not yet said when and how the dead soldiers’ bodies might be retrieved, Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said. “I have requested this information. So far, we have not yet received the lists. I know that the Russian side has them, but we do not have them at present,” Lubinets said.
[...]
The International Committee of the Red Cross said it requested access “to determine the health and condition of all the people present on-site at the time of the attack.”


RT | Russia invites UN and Red Cross experts to investigate POW camp bombing
The Friday bombing killed 50 prisoners, with dozens more wounded.

“In the interest of conducting an objective investigation of the strike on the detention center in Yelenovka, which led to the deaths of many Ukrainian prisoners of war, the Russian Federation has officially invited experts from the UN and the International Red Cross Committee,” the ministry said. The facility in Yelenovka, south of Donetsk, housed hundreds of Ukrainian prisoners – mainly members of the “Azov” neo-Nazi militia who surrendered in Mariupol in May.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 31 2022 0:27 utc | 75

Maria Zakharova strikes again.

https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/3326
"On the one hand, I would like to call Pelosi's flights dangerous military and political adventurism.

On the other - " flights in a dream and in reality." So everything that happens to the American politician is inadequate and surreal.

The compass needle is spinning like crazy, the connection with reality is irretrievably lost, the sight is shot down, and the nuclear icebreaker "White House" has long been washed up on sandy beaches."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 31 2022 0:35 utc | 76

Funny how the West thinks it should have any say in the future of Taiwan (or HK before). Did anyone interfere in the US civil war? When it ended, the north won and the south did not get a single square inch of independent land as a kind of consolation prize. The winner takes it all.

The West should understand that whether it likes China or not is completely irrelevant regarding international law. Borders and territories do not depend on whether or not the political system of a country is popular with country x.

Posted by: Nico | Jul 31 2022 0:42 utc | 77

With old age comes irrelevancy. This can be a bitter pill to swallow.
I'm with Lavrov in thinking nothing will happen. I hope he's right. The dogs bark, the caravan moves on.

Posted by: Hal Duell | Jul 31 2022 0:45 utc | 78

Peter AU1 @75--

To further your icebreaker meme:

Icebreaker USN Whitehouse having encountered a very thick floe of ice is unable to break through it and is now encased within the floe. It now drifts at the mercy of winds, tide and current, directionless. And having passed the Summer maximum for insolation, the ice is growing thicker making further attempts to free the ship futile until next year's thaw arrives. Yes, Russian icebreakers have the power to break the ice and free the ship. But the Whitehouse is on record wanting Russia to bleed and be dismembered making it awkward to ask for help.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 31 2022 1:00 utc | 79

Posted by: Nico | Jul 31 2022 0:42 utc | 76

Did anyone interfere in the US civil war?

Russia did, on the side of the Union.

The Russian naval mission was aimed at deterring the British, who were planning to interfere on the side of the Confederates.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jul 31 2022 1:03 utc | 80

It appears Putin's Direct Line won't be held until October or perhaps later given all the events scheduled for September.

For those following Russia's political-economy, Putin met with Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin about "the situation in the field of housing and road construction, preferential mortgage lending. Separately, the Deputy Prime Minister informed the head of state in detail about the plans and ongoing work to restore Mariupol, as well as various facilities in the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics."

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 31 2022 1:23 utc | 81

Did anyone interfere in the US civil war?

Posted by: Nico | Jul 31 2022 0:42 utc | 76

Russia, France, UK off the top of my head...

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 31 2022 1:24 utc | 82

I think there is a practical way to escalate pressure on the US.

Have China declare that various "vital" exports must be paid for in yuan. Start with rare earths. As it is, it's hard to understand why China drags its feet on spreading digital yuan or halting Treasury purchases permanently. Maybe they pay lip service to de-dollarization to squeeze out what revenue from the US they can before Cold War shuts down trade.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 31 2022 1:29 utc | 83

Последнее китайское предупреждение

Posted by: boris-the-clown | Jul 31 2022 1:38 utc | 84

This is a very nuanced and layered analysis, b. The official Chinese government has not invoked the "war" phrase but their closely-aligned think tanks have. This creates a finer degree of reaction - no immediate violence (war) can be expected as a result of the visit, but perhaps a military action of sufficient counter-provocation that a knee-jerk, hot-headed response to it by the US could provoke the 'Casus Belli' to take decisive action to secure Taiwan, or forcefully deny the impact of US forces in the region.
I really cannot comprehend the reason for the US provoking China in this way, at this time. I don't see this as a rational move. If there is a bigger game being played here, can any of us know what it is? I mean "know," not speculate.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jul 31 2022 1:48 utc | 85

July 31st: Chinese ship set to dock in Sri Lanka (its 'own' port)

Look at the picture: is that a cruise ship in the Indian ocean?

Washington doesn't have a monopoly on expansionism.

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 31 2022 1:48 utc | 86

Sunny Runny Burger @ 14


Yeah... Ain't PROGRESS Grand! I've notice since about 6-7 years ago that whatever proscribed algos that have seen action in this regard are as a kind of program to induce a digi baba .. to be Always updated into creating even MOARR diversion/confusion where needed communication is concerned. Its seems to have only gotten worse these pan dem ic years..

I Really HATE HellCheck!!!

Posted by: polecat | Jul 31 2022 1:49 utc | 87

China relations with Syria alarms the illegal occupier of Palestine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYcCFyLtVj0

From Syriana Analysis. Israel might have to share its stolen gas from the Mediterranean. Perish the thought that it is being confronted by a world power.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 31 2022 2:00 utc | 88

D dan, You only consider Pelosi going to Taiwan by plane. Why couldn't she go by sea, either in a commercial freighter or in a submarine?
Posted by: Lysias | Jul 30 2022 19:45 utc | 37

I think D dan covered all the bases (with the help of Chinese Internet). Any attempt by Pelosi to "sneak" in to Taiwan, plane or otherwise, will be seen as consciousness of guilt and weakness.
Of course, if you wanted to "smuggle" Nancy Pelosi into Taiwan in a container ship or something, the US could certainly do it. But that type of move just makes her look sillier than she already looks.
What a cluster F**&!

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jul 31 2022 2:04 utc | 89

My bachelor's degree from Princeton in 1968 enabled me to get a First Class Honours degree from Oxford a few years later. So, at least at that time, U.S. degrees were not worthless.

Posted by: Lysias | Jul 31 2022 2:05 utc | 90

"So the Chinese are OK with Pompeo, ... Nothing adds up." -- Orchard1 @ 56"

Because Pompeo visited as a private citizen. There are a lot of differences diplomatically and politically.

Posted by: d dan | Jul 31 2022 2:13 utc | 91

The CCP have no legitimate claim on Taiwan. Why are we supporting the Donbas' wish to be independent of Kiev, but not supporting Taiwan's wish to be independent of China?

Posted by: Observer | Jul 31 2022 2:19 utc | 92

@ Observer | Jul 31 2022 2:19 utc | 91

the divide and conquer strategy... now what could that possibly be here in these examples you provide??

Posted by: james | Jul 31 2022 2:21 utc | 93

and of course we know that the usa never ever meddle in others affairs... it is so above such behaviour, lolol... oh, and i am clearly braindead, lol..

Posted by: james | Jul 31 2022 2:22 utc | 94

Posted by: Observer | Jul 31 2022 2:19 utc | 91

It's "CPC". You a troll?
And do read up on history of Taiwan island and come back to teach us that history.

Posted by: Surferket | Jul 31 2022 2:47 utc | 95

Latest troll by Hi Xinjin. Looks like he's been reading this thread with his "submarine" tweet.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HuXijin_GT

Posted by: Surferket | Jul 31 2022 2:55 utc | 96

Observer

I think most people in here think western nations shouls stay out of both places. What you read as Russia support is people pointing out double standards and the blatent lies being told by the west.
Plus Ukraine is full of Nazi idiots, the west is running around stealing everything from Russian people calling them Orcs and treating them as sub humans. Meanwhile we arm swastika wearing pieces of trash to murder them. How Anyone can be stupid enough to think we are the "good guys" is beyond rational.
If you wonder why/how people let it happen to the jews..Here we are. Same story its just the Russians this time.

Posted by: OohCanada | Jul 31 2022 2:59 utc | 97

@Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 30 2022 18:16 utc | 11

Perhaps if Pelosi had taken the time, and shown the respect of historical agreements, and requested permission to visit Taiwan then Beijing would have agreed. However, the visit is not the point -- the outrage is.

This is really a storm in a teacup and distraction strategy from USA domestic issues leading up to the mid-terms. But one slip between the cup and the lip and we may quickly be in a whole new level of global (supply) chain disruption and financial chaos. One might begin to think that is what some actors wish for so they can reset the books etc.

I suspect, if she gets there, it will be a quick photo shoot at the local zoo and a few fire crackers of protest from the mainland -- and maybe North K Kim will set off a big one in a new testing round as a determined show of (paid for?) passive agression.

Posted by: imo | Jul 31 2022 3:04 utc | 98

"It is a stupid thing to do."

There that is the Biden playbook! Why did we not think of it sooner?

Posted by: james Cook | Jul 31 2022 3:11 utc | 99

sln2002 | Jul 31 2022 0:27 utc | 74

I hope they're making a detailed list of ALL the thousands of abandoned Ukrainian KIAs they've had to bury according to basic battlefield hygiene.

Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Jul 31 2022 3:22 utc | 100

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