Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 25, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-95

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict …

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Comments

A couple of different posts here about nuclear bombers being scrambled, but neither have links to where this info was found. Can we get some links or is this just some made up fear mongering?

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 26 2022 2:25 utc | 101

Russia must discontinue UN sanctions on North Korea and start trading with it. DPRK has the man power and resources to become an economically prosperous nation.

Posted by: Jason | Jun 26 2022 2:31 utc | 102

Posted by: Karl luck | Jun 26 2022 1:45 utc | 97
“…Don bacon, I don’t know why you keep posting articles from western people……”
Don can, and likely will, reply for himself. But I read these posts as someone sharing an inside joke. Most here know the score.
John Kirby (and the rest) is therefore exposing himself as yet another clown in this tragic circus.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 26 2022 2:34 utc | 103

@ 2 Buddy the Cat
Yes, both Harpoons and Neptunes are dangerous anti-ship missiles. I am not sure if the danger is “severe” but it is definitely pretty high. The Neptunes are based off of a really innovative Soviet design. The Russians also have advanced anti-ship missiles based off of the KH-35.
Sea skimming missiles are very hard to defeat. By the time radar picks them up the crew will only have around 30-45 seconds to deal with them. Naval point defense systems like the Phalanx are dicey and unproven, the Russian system even more so. The point defense systems also tend to have dead zones, if the missile is well guided the chances of interception are quite low. Electronic/blocking methods can also be used, but have issues of there own.
The best way to stop surface skimming missiles is to prevent targeting, but that is tricky, too. The targeting can be provided by drones, jets, other ships, recon planes, or even from shore it the ship is within visual range. Nearby drones need to be shot down quickly, as it doesn’t take long to provide coordinates to the missile.
The Moskava and other ships of that class are glass cannons, they possess a ton of fire power, but are also quite vulnerable, not the best designed ships in my opinion. The Moskava should have been treated like an aircraft carrier and have support ships with missile defense systems accompany it. It is possible NATO provided the coordinates in some form or fashion.

Posted by: Haassaan | Jun 26 2022 2:43 utc | 104

@ Melaleuca | Jun 26 2022 2:34 utc | 103
I read these posts as someone sharing an inside joke.
Yes, you (like others) have got the context, and it’s not smart to underestimate the intelligence of MOA readers. We’re at a different level than this guy. Perhaps he’ll get smarter. There’s hope.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 26 2022 2:51 utc | 105

Caveman | Jun 26 2022 2:25 utc | 101
Social media reports Putin returned to Kremlin at 11pm. There can be no other reason than impending nuclear holocaust.
Lol. Maybe that is how the world will end… triggered by a unsubstantiated tictok.
Anyway. I *may* have a bread crumb that *might* have sparked “Chinese whispers” leading to telegram or tictok posts.
See:
Josep Borrell Fontelles @JosepBorrellF Jun 25, 2022
My visit to Tehran has one main objective: give new momentum to the negotiations and bring the nuclear deal #JCPOA back on track.
>Since I paused the Vienna talks, three months have passed. We need to break the current dynamic of escalation and speed up our work. We need to close the deal now.
>In meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
@Amirabdolahian. we agreed on resumption of negotiations between Iran and US in the coming days, facilitated by my team, to solve the last outstanding issues.
>Our bilateral relations have enormous potential but without a working JCPOA we cannot fully develop our relationship.
Also raised urgent matters such as the highly disconcerting detention of EU citizens in Iran and asked for their release.|
Maybe. *Maybe* Putin returned to the Kremlin to participate in a vid conference or some discussion on this ^ Borrell visit. Someone heard “nuclear”…. and the rumours spread with the ferocity and speed that only unsubstantiated rumours can.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 26 2022 2:56 utc | 106

@melaleuca 106
Jesus, wouldn’t that be just the way? A final game of telephone to destroy us all…
Definitely glad it seems to be untrue.

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 26 2022 3:02 utc | 107

Borrell’s doing diplomacy, perhaps he could teach Blinken who can only mimic Hillary.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 26 2022 3:21 utc | 108

@Don Bacon, 108
I think that in order for people like Blinken to learn, they must suffer defeat for being wrong. In Washington, unfortunately, these people all fail up. They vote for the Iraq War and later become ’the lesser of two evil’ presidential candidates. They destroy entire regions of the planet and then sell millions of dollars worth of books and are fawned over by famous talk show hosts. When Blinken mimics Hillary, he gets told what a good boy he is. He wouldn’t know diplomacy if it sat on his face and wiggled. He only knows how to get some nice pets and some nice treats from his corporate paymasters and no dog has ever wanted anything more. So you’re definitely right, he is a Hillary clone, and for this reason he will never learn diplomacy.

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 26 2022 3:29 utc | 109

@ Don Bacon | Jun 26 2022 2:51 utc | 105
my impression of karl luck is he is quite smart too, but he is relatively new around here which might explain some of this.. cheers.
moa can be a tough crowd with sarcasm, irony and all sorts of dynamics at play.. bottom line is we are missing the direct human interaction on the internet which would help offset much of the misunderstandings that are bound to happen on the internet as the only medium for all this..

Posted by: james | Jun 26 2022 3:33 utc | 110

The Sirius Report. @thesiriusreport
The European Commission has prepared a draft document allowing Russia to transport goods to Kaliningrad via Lithuania.
[A free drink at the bar to Peter AU1 for the tip to this^ account]

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 26 2022 3:43 utc | 111

@Melaleuca, 111
Awesome if true. The EU definitely needs to break away from the US and start doing for themselves, however it’s kinda bitter, because it really begins to look like the world of 1984. There will be a Eurasia, as Europe realizes its future is in the East, and Eastasia, both of whom are beginning to appear as interchangeable enemies, as I sit here typing on my Big Brother machine, while the news is all lies and mega corporations try to memory hole any information that doesn’t fit into their tightly packaged narrative. So it’s nice to see that we probably won’t see nuclear holocaust due to Kaliningrad and Lithuania, but it does appear that a new supranational order is possibly being built that will be just as bad as the current one. Instead of one superpower, there will be three. Like Joe Strummer said in Rude Boy, it’ll just be different people being chauffeured around in the black cars. The majority of us will remain enslaved. It’s seems retroactive, back to how it was when I was a kid.

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 26 2022 3:57 utc | 112

PCR tooting his horn – hasn’t had much of interest to say for quite some time as I see it. “If Russia doesn’t… blah, blah, blah…”
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 25 2022 22:40 utc | 77
Understood. But he has more real-world experience than most pundits and his thesis is that if we are not careful Russia and the West are going to escalate the conflict versus contain it which is a VERY DANGEROUS thing for billions of us. Now he might be all wrong, but I don’t see any sign that Russia can contain this. One can argue that she doesn’t need to since there are plenty of young men to kill in the Cauldron, but escalation really could be a very bad thing and it is looking likely – Lithuania, Serbia, Moldavia. Georgia, Syria, Pakistan, Taiwan and many more flash points. World war is becoming more likely with each passing week not less likely.
The only reason it might not happen is widespread world wide Depression. I guess that’s a good thing compared to nuclear winter, but it certainly won’t feel like it and again many hundreds of millions may die early because of it.
Generally, I think PCR makes a good point even if a tad stridently: we might be sleep walking into armageddon. We really might be…

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 26 2022 4:08 utc | 113

Billb @100
“The US has at least two Soviet era nuclear weapons recovered by the CIA from submarine K-129 in “Operation Azorian” in 1974.”
yikes.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Jun 26 2022 4:16 utc | 114

Lysias [28]
Rwanda was a German colony administered by Belgium before independence and civil war with French and Belgian orchestration.
I believe the (British) Commonwealth acquired its participation in 2009……. Much like Mozambique …….
What ? Why ? How? It is incomprehensible to people in UK like so much else Overlords do

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 26 2022 4:25 utc | 115

” ‘Authoritarian powers try to push back against the rules-based international order:'”
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 25 2022 23:50 utc | 88
Wow, the Western Establishment has gone Full Vietnam on us:
I mean, forget Orwell, forget Kafka:
This is “through the looking-glass.”

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 26 2022 4:28 utc | 116

@ Caveman | Jun 26 2022 3:57 utc | 112
I don’t remember it being explicitly stated but I thought that it was implied in ‘1984’ that all the blocs were complicit in the arrangement, all using the external threat of the others to maintain a state of internal repression.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 26 2022 4:29 utc | 117

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 26 2022 3:21 utc | 108
Hillary > Sullivan > Blinken

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 26 2022 4:48 utc | 118

polarbear4 | Jun 26 2022 4:16 utc | 114
Billb @100
Won’t be offering any links… just from memory..
After the collapse of the USSR the US had full and unencumbered access to the entire Soviet defence infrastructure. I recall a Putin dialogue at something like a Valdai Discussion Club fora some years back where he said…. And I paraphrase most liberally…. That immediately post collapse, Americans could be found everywhere … riffing through broom cupboards, pawing through sock draws and laundry baskets… nothing was left unexplored.
At that time the US took possession of a full suit of Soviet armaments, relocated to the US. The US collection of Soviet weapons is extensive… and (Putin did *not* say *nor imply* this, but) ….many are kept precisely for use in false flag fuckery.
The MH-17 claim that a Buk was used, revealed that the meticulous Soviet record keeping remained intact… Russia was able to identify the exact Buk, its date of manufacture, its full history…. and the fact it had never left Ukraine. ….
That revelation might have put a bit of a dampener on the US using old Soviet weapons for false flags. Maybe.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 26 2022 4:48 utc | 119

@ Scorpion | Jun 26 2022 4:08 utc | 113 Re:
“Generally, I think PCR makes a good point even if a tad stridently: we might be sleep walking into armageddon. We really might be…”
I can’t imagine why anyone would think anything else. Barring some paranoid scenario where the US, the RF and the Chinese are all secretly in cahoots, we are pretty much on a collision course for disaster.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 26 2022 4:49 utc | 120

@MarkU, 117
I always got that impression too, and although it may not be the case as we speak, who can say exactly what the future holds. Political repression definitely exists in both Russia and China, as it does in every state, and it definitely helps both those countries, as it helps the US, to have an outside enemy on whom to blame any internal problems. It just seems to me that the building of a new order we are witnessing is more of a redesign of the old one. The original title of 1984 was, I believe, 1948. So the new world is just the old one with a new veil pulled over it. As Phil Dick said in VALIS, once you defeat the empire, you become the empire. It has never ended.

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 26 2022 4:51 utc | 121

“Its funny how you never knew what my name was
Our only contact was a form for the election
These days I find that you don’t listen
These days I find that were out of touch
These days I find that I’m too busy
So why the attention now you want my assistance
What have you done for me
You’ve gone and got yourself in trouble
No you want me to help you out
These days I find that I can’t be bothered
These days I find that its all too much
To pick up a gun and shoot a stranger
But I’ve got no choice so here I come war games
I’m up on the hills playing little boy soldiers
Reconnaissance duty up at 5:30
Shoot shoot shoot and kill the natives
You’re one of us and we love you for that
Think of honor queen and country
You’re a blessed son of the British empire
Gods on our side and so is Washington
Come out on the hills with the little boy soldiers
Come on outside I’ll sing you a lullaby
Or tell a tale of how goodness prevailed
We ruled the world we killed and robbed
The fucking lot but we don’t feel bad
It was done beneath the flag of democracy
You’ll believe and I do yes I do yes I do
Yes I do
These days I find that I can’t be bothered
To argue with them well what’s the point
Better to take your shots and drop down dead
Then they send you home in a pine overcoat
With a letter to your mum
Saying find enclosed one son one medal and a note
To say he won”
“Little Boy Soldiers” – The Jam

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 26 2022 4:52 utc | 122

@ Aslangeo | 25
Remember to press the ‘like’ button.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 26 2022 5:01 utc | 123

“Why is the Commonwealth meeting being held in Rwanda, which as far as I know was never under British rule or a member of the Commonwealth?”
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 25 2022 18:54 utc | 28
It was a French colony, and joined the Brutish Commonwealth in 2009. Apparently it was poor enough after the genocide that the broke UK was able to bribe it.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 26 2022 5:06 utc | 124

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 26 2022 4:52 utc | 122
The US Army somewhat sourly defined “glory” during the Western Indian Wars as “getting shot in the back by an Indian from behind a rock and your name misspelled in the Eastern newspapers.”
BTW, this the anniversary of the Little Big Horn/Greasy Grass, the second day, Reno and Benteen and their men having been corraled atop Reno Hill all evening and night and day while the Sioux etc. amused themselves with their literally hundreds of new rifles from Custer’s battalion, may his flames burn ever higher on these days.

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 26 2022 5:26 utc | 125

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 26 2022 4:48 utc | 119
They tracked down said Buk missile type from the alleged metal flakes found in wreckage which unique to it although it is apparently retired from Russian services. The only other one has it is Ukraine.
That they refuse to even discuss the possibility it is Ukrainian Buk since both Russia and Ukraine inherited Soviet systems make their allegations flimsy af.

Posted by: Lucci | Jun 26 2022 5:42 utc | 126

Sunday afternoon and I’m going to indulge in a little musing… creative writing….
Lithuania and the Suwalki corridor. Which geostrategic genius decided to put this into play? My past life experiences with bureaucracies, large, larger, local, international, corporate and government comes niggling from back of mind. Recalling how decision making is conducted…..
There is a seething, septic, cancerous network of psychopathic rabid Russia haters. They are located in Ukraine, Poland expats in Canada, and embedded in the Baltics, particularly Lithuania. All desperate to please and impress their EU and US masters.
At a C-tier, or B-tier meeting, blocking Suwalki was discussed… The proposal was passed “up the line” where it might have been a topic for discussion. Smirks and bonhomie all round, about this new way to “teach Putin a lesson”.
At some point it was “understood” the Lithuanians should proceed. The “nod” came back down the chain, and the Lithuanians exalted in this exciting exhibition of their power.
Then Russia got angry. Really angry. Like for real angry. Sphincters tightened across Europe and on both sides of the Atlantic. People started looking for who and where this “brave” decision originated…. It was found that no actual decision or resolution was made “at the highest level”, and now the B-tier and C-tier players found themselves dangerously exposed. Russia was still angry. Really for real, angry.
With Ukrainian soldiers dying at the rate of 500-1000 per week, a really angry Russia is not something the EU or NATO presently want to engage.
Does NATO want a military confrontation with Russia over a 100km train line in Lithuania?
Like youths throwing rocks at a savage, but chained junkyard dog…. Time to runaway fast immediately the chain snaps.
Will Russia agree to (yet another face saving) negotiation, where just a few items are prevented from being sent to Kaliningrad. Or is Russia ready to retaliate?
At this point I acknowledge the view of Paul Craig Roberts, that Russian appeasement to date has allowed its tormentors to think it won’t ever react.
Putin said in December/ January that Russia had been pushed so far back it now had nowhere else to retreat. And the neocons only know how to double down double down double down and escalate. We are fast approaching that tripwire where finally Russia doesn’t concede, the neocons once again escalate….. and wham.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 26 2022 5:49 utc | 127

Seems to have been some missile strikes in downtown Kiev this morning – could they be related to Putin’s purported late-night Kremlin visit?

Posted by: Homer | Jun 26 2022 5:58 utc | 128

@99 During WWII the germans shipped submarines {in pieces) down the Danube.

Posted by: Don S | Jun 26 2022 5:59 utc | 129

Onufrienko further concludes from other observations, that UA withdrawals from Severonetsk and the east bank were done under some sort of agreement between the two sides, to allow UA forces out.
He thinks the same thing is going on with UA withdrawals from the greater Lisichansk area …
Posted by: ptb | Jun 25 2022 21:11 utc | 60

Note that the Telegraph reports that yesterday Putin removed General Alexander Dvornikov from command.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/25/russia-shakes-up-top-command-ex-syria-war-general-sacked/

Posted by: too scents | Jun 26 2022 6:11 utc | 130

There has been a lot of talk here recently about NATO escalating and directly entering the fight. It seems to me that this is unlikely, especially from a USA perspective, because of geography.
If you want to attack Russia you actually have to go to Russia, and for those who haven’t read Montgomery’s Rules of War, Russia is truly vast. The Ukraine is huge, but it looks like a tiny little irrelevance next to Russia.
However, if Russia wants to attack NATO then it can go anywhere it wants to find a target, in both hemisphere’s (or all four, if we now include western /eastern as well as north/south). The USA has 800 bases all across the world. Admittedly quite a few are conveniently located on Russia’s borders, but some are in the middle of the Pacific, in Japan, Korea, and other places irrelevant to a Russian defence of their nation, but very, very vulnerable to hypersonic missiles via submarine.
My other assumption for the USA is that in order to project its power it needs its carrier groups – no carriers, no power, and optics is everything. A full NATO attack on Russia would perforce include using carriers to launch the air superiority NATO depends upon so would, quite legitimately, make carriers in both the Atlantic and Pacific (and Mediterranean) instant targets. The only argument I have heard against this is that sinking carriers would mean an escalation to nuclear, but NATO attacking Russia is existential to Russia, so hardly not an escalation in its own right. Oh, and don’t forget the Atlantic convoys required for resupply…
Russia only has to not lose, whereas NATO has to be seen to win. The assumption that the war would be kept tidily and neatly bottled up in The Ukraine for the benefit of the warmongers is bizarre.
Or to put it another way, Germany couldn’t invade Great Britain because it couldn’t beat the Royal Navy. However Oceana never had a Navy that could sink East Asia. It’s a stalemate.
My thanks to all, especially mine host. The equilibrium provided here is a godsend.

Posted by: Occasional poster | Jun 26 2022 6:23 utc | 131

@127
It’s about 500-1000 per day, not week. Adding official numbers yesterday it was actually 1100+ for the day before

Posted by: rk | Jun 26 2022 6:47 utc | 132

One of the targets in Kiev was Artyom defense plant. Nazis are presenting it as a civilian target :))
Also Zelly was officially invited to UK in 3 months. And surely he won’t come back

Posted by: rk | Jun 26 2022 6:59 utc | 133

The hypocrisy of free-market globalists.

Group of Seven negotiators agreed that discussions on a potential price cap on Russian oil had progressed enough to send the issue to leaders to discuss at a summit starting Sunday in Germany, according to people familiar with the matter.
The negotiators known as sherpas held what one official described as “intense” talks on the matter in the Bavarian Alps ahead of the summit.
While there are many issues still to be ironed out, they reached an understanding that leaders should have a formal discussion about a price cap, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing private matters.
Such a price mechanism would set an upper limit on imports of oil from Russia, which would be imposed unilaterally by each participating country and prevent Russia selling at a higher price. For European nations, it’s also a way to potentially defray inflation driven by energy prices as they grapple with the economic fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-25/g-7-negotiators-put-russia-oil-price-cap-on-agenda-for-leaders?srnd=premium-europe
While sherpas are good at carrying other peoples baggage, they don’t seem to understand how a market works.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 26 2022 7:10 utc | 134

#134
This idiotic idea, that Russia will sell oil at any price the buyer wants, keeps appearing in the news. It’s the same logic that made US, a few months ago, say that they’ll keep “buying” Russian oil but not pay for it until the war is over. Worked so well :))

Posted by: rk | Jun 26 2022 7:25 utc | 135

There had been few winged missiles landing in Kiev, but the MSM doesn’t appear to write about that, even in the most Russo-hate countries. In some MSM, Ukraine had moved to the 3rd-4th news, and not exactly fresh.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2022 7:25 utc | 136

Posted by: daffyDuct | Jun 25 2022 20:57 utc | 56

Does someone know of a good analysis of the political parties created and/or banned in UA before and since 2014, and especially since Feb 24th.
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is among five people named Thursday as recipients of the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award for acting to protect democracy.”

I’m always surprised this topic doesn’t get more coverage in this bar. More disappointing, it is mostly absent from any interviews or speeches by Russian officials. And yet, it’s such a low hanging fruit. In my opinion, this shows that Russia has a lot of catching up to do on the counter narrative effort.

Posted by: robin | Jun 26 2022 7:37 utc | 137

True, they only talk about some late Putin visit to Kremlin, as the trolls above have already posted. And not that Shoigu was in Ukr
When natostan has strong censorship like today, it’s mucher easier to see how the propaganda spreads. Everyone gets the morning email with the approved daily news and forum topics. I see it on TV, same text on all TV stations. The source is always UK or Ukr propaganda websites.

Posted by: rk | Jun 26 2022 7:38 utc | 138

From IntelSlava

🏳️‍🌈❗NATO is adjusting to the new scenario at the upcoming Madrid summit and may decide on the largest military deployment since the end of the Cold War, the Spanish newspaper Pais reported.
According to her, NATO allies are ready to embark on an intense arms race to turn Eastern Europe into a fort with thousands of soldiers and a lot of military equipment. According to the newspaper, the alliance wants to make it clear that it is on alert and ready to respond to aggression against any member state.

Cold War 2.0 is just getting warmed up.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 26 2022 7:39 utc | 139

At this stage it’s just a question of where the borders for Iron Curtain 2.0 will be.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 26 2022 7:41 utc | 140

World war is becoming more likely with each passing week not less likely.

We might be sleep walking into armageddon. We really might be…
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 26 2022 4:08 utc | 113
Both sides are escalating. Russia because its existence is in danger, the US because its hegemony is in danger.
As long as the risk is for war on the European continent, the Anglos will stand cheering on the sidelines.
At this moment the only brake is US internal politics. If war with Russia causes inflation, inflation causes high prices, and high prices cause the Democrats to lose the november by-elections, then Biden may want to wrap up the US operation in Ukraine, fast.
Also, Russia has stated it will strike the decision making centres if needed. Those decision making centres are not Kiev, Warsaw or Berlin.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 26 2022 7:42 utc | 141

Posted by: too scents | Jun 26 2022 7:10 utc | 134
Posted by: rk | Jun 26 2022 7:25 utc | 135
“No rubles, no price, no oil.”

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 26 2022 7:43 utc | 142

rt.de has published an opinion piece highly critical of the Russian strategy and talking about an imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Would be interested in what people here have to say – and why RT has published such an unusual, almost “defeatist” article.
https://rtde.website/meinung/141919-ukrainische-grossoffensive-in-den-startloechern/
Translation:
The fact that Ukraine is planning and preparing a large-scale counteroffensive for one of the summer months is not a big secret. Officials such as the adviser to the Ukrainian President Alexei Arestovich or the Ukrainian chief reconnaissance officer Kirill Budanov spoke about it publicly several times.
Currently, information is mounting that suggests that preparations for this offensive have been completed and that its implementation could be imminent.
Contrary to full-bodied announcements, the allied forces of Russia and the two People’s Republics have not succeeded in encircling and defeating major formations of Ukrainian troops even after four months. Where the (pro-)Russian side has achieved success, it has done so by shifting the front line laboriously and relatively slowly, so that the Ukrainian military has largely succeeded in retreating further westward to pre-prepared defensive lines.
Despite local successes, the crushing of the Ukrainian faction in the Donbass continues to lack resounding success. Even Russian experts now concede that the Ukrainian military leadership is extremely adept tactically and has struck a balance favorable to it between delaying the Russian advance with the help of fiercely defended nodes and tactically retreating to well-prepared new lines of defense. In addition, newly mobilized forces of the next frontal stage are now concentrated on the western border of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
This new front of fresh and now well-equipped troops, which has been building for months, has not been concentrated on the borders of the territory claimed by the People’s Republics, which are still deep in the Ukrainian hinterland, to hold those borders defensively. Rather, the rear positions have been prepared as the base of an offensive that is to overrun the major city of Donetsk and its agglomeration in its very first stage.
Russian military experts now agree that the probability of a critical escalation on the front line near Donetsk in the coming weeks is very high. Currently, Ukrainian forces are concentrating their forces in the Pavlovka area, apparently to launch a counterattack toward Donetsk.
But the Donbass is far from being the only region where things are threatening to “heat up” in July, or August at the latest: at the same time, in fact, Ukrainian troops are being massively redeployed from the country’s western regions to the south. In the Kherson region, the Russian side faces the prospect of a Ukrainian counterattack, which could take place simultaneously on several fronts as part of a complex operation.
The observed transfer of Ukrainian units, previously stationed on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, to Nikolaev is at the same time seen by Russian experts as a sure sign that Ukraine has guarantees from the Polish military to invade here when the time comes. A repeat of the Russian attack on Kiev from the north is apparently no longer feared by the Ukrainian General Staff.
A third, smaller front, but of great strategic importance for control of the Black Sea, is Ukraine’s announced recapture of Snake Island. There are numerous indications that this operation is about to begin, including the intensifying shelling of the island and the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Odessa.
The main reason for the failure of the Allies to achieve general success is the shortage of military personnel, which does not permit the buildup of a sufficient preponderance of troops at the points crucial to an encirclement maneuver. Russia continues to rely solely on the professional army and shies away from general mobilization. The People’s Republics have now largely exhausted their mobilization potential. Personnel assistance from supposed allies such as China or Syria, which had been speculated about in the first weeks of the war, remained wishful thinking. Russia, as always in history, has had dubious “luck” with its allies.
We do not know the plans and underlying calculations of the Russian General Staff, but more and more knowledgeable observers are wondering how it intends to compensate for the quantitative advantage of the Ukrainian side without mobilization, especially since the qualitative advantage of Russian weapons in artillery and air superiority has not been decisive for the war so far and is additionally increasingly melting due to the Western arms deliveries.
Events are accelerating, and we are seeing a sharp increase in the tempo of the operation on the part of the Ukrainian armed forces. All this critically coincides with a routinization of the conflict on the Russian side. Ukraine is waging the war in earnest and preparing a counteroffensive that is likely to become decisive for the war – one way or the other.
The crucial question is whether Russia and the People’s Republics have the strength to resist Ukraine’s accumulated reserves and pulverize the forthcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. The coming weeks will tell.
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Posted by: mk | Jun 26 2022 7:54 utc | 143

A fable about the scorpion and frog which I believe is of Russian origin. The scorpion, which cannot swim, wanted to cross the river. So the scorpion begged the frog to carry him across. The frog refused to say the scorpion may sting while he was ferrying him across. The scorpion replies that he won’t do that because the frog would then die resulting in the drowning of the scorpion too. Therefore it was not in the best interests of the scorpion to sting the frog while going across the river.
The frog thinks things through and finds the scorpion’s argument rational and logically sensible. So the frog swims across the river with the scorpion on his back. Midway across the river, the scorpion whose sting is in the tail strikes suddenly. The stung frog in a state of paralysis begins to drown. The scorpion dislodged from the frog’s back and also is drowning. The dying frog is baffled as to why the scorpion has acted irrationally and doomed them both. “Why, why? asks the frog. The scorpion replies, “I don’t know. I couldn’t resist the urge. It’s in my character. It is my nature”.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2022 7:55 utc | 144

“No rubles, no price, no oil.”
Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 26 2022 7:43 utc | 142

A bouquet of consequences.

Economic consequences for Germany will be dire this coming winter unless gas flows resume, German Energy Minister Robert Habeck warned on Thursday, comparing the energy predicament to the 2008 crisis.
Gas rationing would cut deeply into German industrial production, Habeck warned, and eventually cut household consumption.
European utilities have fixed-price contracts to provide gas to industrial consumers and households, Habeck explained. If their costs suddenly jump because of a severe shortage, a chain of bankruptcies could hit the energy sector in a Lehman-style crisis.
A calculation by the German center-right daily Die Welt predicts a boost in the heating bill for a typical German household by EUR 2,640 (US $2,772) a year compared with 2020.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/russia-chokes-gas-flow-germans-fear-lehman-moment/
AsiaTimes reportage of the Ukraine situation has become more realistic.
Also this ==> https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/ukraine-the-situation-june-24-2022/

Posted by: too scents | Jun 26 2022 7:59 utc | 145

Kharkov Sunday morning, from a person, who don’t want to leave the city and become a refugee. Her daughter also doesn’t want to go to England to her relatives, even for few months. https://youtu.be/wZfQ4eqjFwI
By the way, she doesn’t speak politics.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 26 2022 8:36 utc | 146

@mk | Jun 26 2022 7:54 utc | 143
Read that “opinion piece” by Mf. Anton Gentzen and was astonished. Not about the contents which is literally the rubbish Arestovich is spouting every day. Mind that a week ago he predicted that the Allied troops would stall and bleed out at the gates of Severodonetsk. Etcetera, the list is long.
From a military point of view, all that makes no sense. Even western observers confirm that the Ukrainian forces are bleeding out of trained personnel, and that all ideas of forming new troops are but a chimera. Moreover, NATO has already depleted much of its arsenals. Would they heed the Ukrainian weapon desires it would need to lay bare the equipment of Germany and France together. And the industrial capacities of the West are not made for an industrial war like WWII as Stephen Bryen in Asia Times explains: https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/us-and-nato-lack-capability-to-supply-a-long-war/ (Noteworthy, I think that Mr. Bryen is even understating the problem. I doubt that Russia would ship the raw materials and semi finished goods needed to rearm NATO.
Moreover, Russia is running the SMO on a 65 billion $ military budget (which will increase due to the war but so far certainly less than double). NATO, on the other hand, is running a 1.18 trillion $ (2021). This means that the Russians expend 1/13th of the NATO spending. On the global military hardware markets, Russian products, at par and often superior, cost 1/3 of Western ones.
The West, largely deindustrialized and “globalized”, with critical supply chains depending on China and Russia, is unable to wage a “production battle” like in WWII. German panzer factories would suffer a 100% and more cost increase without Russian gas alone 🙂 .

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 26 2022 8:37 utc | 147

Those talking about Ukr counteroffensive are smoking something too much. They are running, not retreating.
At the current rate of regions lost per day, daily deaths (and at least 2x-3x more wounded) and using people with disabilities as soldiers how are they going to take back all regions including Crimea?
No, since day 1 the result was known, but natoids live in a drug induced dream and there’s foam at their mouths because they can’t stop it. Even if nato becomes involved more directly, where are they going to find 200k soldiers to die for Zelly? Take Romanians/Bulgarians from the streets and send them to Ukr by force? Russia can send more troops too.
Nato will increase the troops in Europe surely. Lots of money for US since the host has to pay for everything and the cost is huge.

Posted by: rk | Jun 26 2022 8:58 utc | 148

Thank you, aquadraht. So if this is just a crap piece (tend to believe that, but I’m no military expert at all) why does RT.de allows it to be prominently published? Is it to maintain the appearance of a neutral reporting, or something like showing strength by understatement, or to dampen premature optimism among Russia-friendly minds (kind of intentionally devaluing the ruble because it has gotten too strong)?

Posted by: mk | Jun 26 2022 9:02 utc | 149

@149
I don’t know why they write crap on local websites. Maybe local websites have their own topics with local writers. For example, if you read Sputnik in English you’ll see it completely different than, for example, Sputnik Moldova (which is realtively bad, comparatively). I’m starting to suspect there’s more democracy in Russia :))))

Posted by: rk | Jun 26 2022 9:36 utc | 150

Further to the ‘how to get the 18 US patrol boats to Ukraine’ comments. One definite way and one possible.
The definite way is to transport them across the Atlantic and then send them through the European canal/river system to the Black Sea and up into Ukraine. The less certain but probable is all the way on the back of merchant ships, as done before with bigger craft. This is due to the Turks still allowing civilian ships through the Bosporus even if they have a military cargo. It seems they have no interest in stopping and checking ships, just a simple external I/D.
Not sure how long they will survive when they get there but the US will have got its PR win and send funding for their replacements safely on its way, with the usual 10% commission of course.
Big day/night it seems yesterday:
– in Kiev, it seems that 10+ Kalibres hit them last night, mainly another strike on a big arms factory. Part of a bigger salvo.
– Shoigu was in Ukraine on a working visit.
– Russia said that it will be basing nuclear weapons and aircraft in Belarus.

Posted by: JohninMK | Jun 26 2022 10:10 utc | 151

@ Lysias “Why is the Commonwealth meeting being held in Rwanda, which as far as I know was never under British rule or a member of the Commonwealth?”
Rwanda became a british commonwealth member (despite never being a british colony etc.) after it broke all ties with France, which Rwanda accused of organising the 1994 genocide. It was a kind of replacement reaction, after leaving Francophonie.

Posted by: Δημήτρης Α | Jun 26 2022 10:41 utc | 152

Why is the Commonwealth meeting being held in Rwanda, which as far as I know was never under British rule or a member of the Commonwealth?
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 25 2022 18:54 utc | 28

The politico-military junta which today wreaks havoc in Rwanda is largely made up of English-speaking Tutsis from Uganda, unlike the Tutsis in the interior who, when they are bilingual, are French-speaking. This partly explains Rwanda’s ties to the Commonwealth, although Rwanda was a German and then a Belgian colony.
The accession to the Commonwealth of a country which was never a British colony is a thank you from the Kagame regime to the Anglo-Saxon world which is its strongest support, despite the scale of its crimes.
Canadian journalist Judi Rever, in her fascinating book In Praise of Blood, notes that:
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has been dubbed Kagami’s ‘chief supporter’, and played a crucial role in bringing about the torrent of aid to Rwanda, and then ensuring that the money would continue to flow. When Blair was in power, from 1997 to 2007, the United Kingdom became the second largest donor country after the United States.

Judi River, In Praise of Blood: The Crimes of the Rwandan Patriotic Front, Random House Canada 2018

The U.S. and the U.K. have turned a blind eye to the genocide of Hutus by the RPF, as well as its participation in the massacres of Tutsis from within, and it is incredibly obscene to see a Commonwealth meeting taking place in Kigali at a time when Rwanda is relaunching the war in Congolese Kivu.
The looting, by Rwanda, of the resources of the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Belgian Congo) remains unpunished thanks to the support of the Anglo-Saxon world. Well worth a Commonwealth membership.
In an article posted a few days ago on his blog, Bernard Lugan writes (machine translation):
In 2019, before Covid, Rwanda exported $56.6 million worth of minerals that it does not produce, or only anecdotally. Trafficking is done through shell companies and mining cooperatives that give the “Rwanda” label to Congolese productions. In addition to coltan, gold, diamonds and other rare minerals, the oil of the Rutshuru region, an extension of that of the Lake Albert basin, means that Rwanda cannot withdraw from a region with a rich base. -floor. Moreover, if Kinshasa regained control of Kivu, the buyers of its mining production would no longer be the Anglo-American allies of Kigali, but the Chinese…
In a sign that Rwanda is unwilling to abandon its expansionist policy in Congolese Kivu, the Rwandan company Power Resources is currently completing the construction of a coltan refinery in Kigali, which will make the country a key global player in the supply of this strategic mineral.
»
(In French:)
http://bernardlugan.blogspot.com/2022/06/kivu-pourquoi-cette-nouvelle-guerre.html?m=1
I highly recommend Judi River’s book and am sorry that people as intelligent and (mostly) as knowledgeable as Paul Greenwood could write: «… civil war with French and Belgian orchestration ».
Judi River’s book is prefaced by André Sirois, a Canadian jurist who was part of the investigative team of the Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (based in Kigali). This preface alone would be enough to justify the purchase of the book; in a few pages you will be able to know what the judgments of the Arusha court are worth.
But I stayed too long off topic here and there is a barfly who knows the subject better than me and who will tell you about it if he wishes. See Johan Meyer (2) | Jun 16 2022 19:02 utc | 56

Posted by: Leuk | Jun 26 2022 11:12 utc | 153

Judi Rever (not River).

Posted by: Leuk | Jun 26 2022 11:15 utc | 154

John Kennard @125
Thanks for the reminder of the anniversary of the battles of Greasy Grass and Little Bighorn between the Sioux and Cheyenne defending against attacks by the U.S. Army. Although much more obscure, the battle at Greasy Grass was the more important because there Crazy Horse introduced two new elements of strategy. Previously, the native Americans had used a mass frontal charge against U.S. cavalry, like in the movies. This time they feigned such a charge, but at the last minute they divided and circled the invading “Americans” on three sides, pushing them on the fourth side toward a hill where several hundred women and older men were hidden with rifles. It was the first time they had fought from a fixed position. The result was that the Sioux and Cheyenne native peoples, only recently advanced from the stone age, routed an Industrial age “American” army of more than a thousand men. You can read all about it in a fascinating biography by Mari Sandoz called “Crazy Horse: The Strange Man of the Oglalas.” It is written from the Sioux point of view and is the only biography I know of about the man who is one of the greatest military leaders in American history.

Posted by: Chas | Jun 26 2022 12:40 utc | 156

The Black Sea is set for the planet’s next big economic boom and Russia is its new master.
Posted by: Chriss Street | Jun 25 2022 23:17 utc | 84
VERY interesting about all the waterways and shipping volume. Looks like they are getting ready to separate. If the West returns to some sort of sanity then things can always go back and forth again but if not, they are ready to lower the boom and have the Central Island entirely self-sufficient with clear borders on the Western Russian frontier essentially.
I agree there will be a boom. Probably another 3 billion people in Eurasia in next half century or so. They have land, climate, opportunity and now geopolitical alignments finally after being more or less dormant since the Khanate period..

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 26 2022 13:38 utc | 157

Posted by: too scents | Jun 26 2022 6:11 utc | 130

Note that the Telegraph reports that yesterday Putin removed General Alexander Dvornikov from command.
“>https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/25/russia-shakes-up-top-command-ex-syria-war-general-sacked/

In another thread, a poster noted that the Russian military has mandatory retirement at age 60, a fact omitted by western press in order to portray the recent departure of several generals as due to poor performance. (I seem to recall that said retirees include Dvornikov, though I’m not positive.)

Posted by: David Levin | Jun 26 2022 14:54 utc | 158

@David Levin | Jun 26 2022 14:54 utc | 158

Note that the Telegraph reports that yesterday Putin removed General Alexander Dvornikov from command.

General Dvornikov was given command of Phase 2 of the Special Military Operation. If a new commander is being put in place, is this preparation for Phase 3?

Posted by: cirsium | Jun 26 2022 15:58 utc | 159

David Levin | Jun 26 2022 14:54 utc | 158
Western intelligentsia imagine property interests in their “station” — they “bought” it fair and square, said all the Varsity Blues parents — and project their entitlement mentality onto Russian organization. Right now all of Thinktankistan are butthurt about Allen and Brookings and fearing to be “dispossessed” of their own little fiefs, I bet. I love the smell of elites in fear. We should do this all the time.

Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Jun 26 2022 16:28 utc | 160

If a new commander is being put in place, is this preparation for Phase 3?
Posted by: cirsium | Jun 26 2022 15:58 utc | 159
There seems to be a significant uptick of strikes well outside the Donbass area.
Phase Three: after the stand-off trench war phase is over there is much more maneuvering again, probably with advances into Odessa and elsewhere, even Kiev?

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 26 2022 21:54 utc | 161