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June 22, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-92

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on June 22, 2022 at 16:57 UTC | Permalink

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Hey B, I noticed that a lot of people were being sent from your site to my humble little blog.

I wanted to thank you, or whoever is advertising my posts here.

All the best,
Rolo

Posted by: Rolo Slavskiy | Jun 22 2022 17:06 utc | 1

Very Interesting Documents from 1897 and 1915 show the people in the Ukraine thought it ridiculous that Ukraine could be considered independent from Russia

Photos and Article https://abrahamstein.substack.com/p/historical-proof-all-of-ukraine-belongs


Posted by: Dean Oneil | Jun 22 2022 17:10 utc | 2

Lithuania has been taking orders from the US for a while now. Back in 2020, Lithuania started signaling that it would not ratify the EU-Cuba deal when everyone else in the EU did. And in 2021, the Lithuanian parliament passed a resolution saying it was not “politically appropriate” to ratify.

In 2020 Gabrielius Landsbergis as then conservative leader said “the dictatorial and corrupt Cuban regime cooperating with terrorists” is using the EU agreement for its goals. Moreover, ratifying the deal would harm Lithuania's ties with the US, he believes."

Landsbergis went on to become the current foreign minister.

Cubans can travel to Russia visa free. Since the start of this year some of them have been showing up to Lithuania through Belarus and claim asylum. Lithuania should be expected to live up to its words. If several thousand Cubans cross into Lithuania to claim EU protection, Lithuania is obligated to give them asylum.

Posted by: havana | Jun 22 2022 17:17 utc | 3

Lithuania has irritated Russia and China thus far. It has a falling birth rate and no real resources. It can be cut off from Poland in an evening. Poland is non-viable with no energy supplies and poor relations with Germany.

France is no longer going to tolerate these basket cases now the Assembly has independence from Macron.

Watch US reverse-ferret and leave Lithuania high and dry - and Estonia - and Latvia. Poland will never see 250 Abrams tanks which it cannot pay for.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2022 17:22 utc | 4

Lithuania also is very angry at China. It didn't help them, it's causing lots of problems actually but they don't care as long as master is pleased. Somewhere in Baltic states or Finland/Sweden will be Ukr v2.0, but will be much worse for them than it is for Ukr

Posted by: rk | Jun 22 2022 17:27 utc | 5

A lot of barbed wire at Lithuanian detention centers for refugees.

https://img.msf.org/AssetLink/j270805df8j048881v6vnnbwr87uv64y.jpg

More than 2,500 asylum seekers and migrants are being arbitrarily detained in Lithuania, following an increase in border crossings in 2021.

Conditions of detention are inadequate for the health and protection needs of people being detained.

https://www.msf.org/prolonged-detention-over-2500-migrants-lithuania-must-end-now

MSF calls on the Lithuanian authorities to end the arbitrary and prolonged detention of these people immediately.

Posted by: havana | Jun 22 2022 17:34 utc | 6

Well Lithuania does have the highest suicide rate in Europe

since independence in 1991 this country has lost about 1 million people, started at 3.7 million now at 2.7. Falling birth rate, increasing death rate and immigration to Western Europe

At this rate there will be none left in a few decades

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jun 22 2022 17:45 utc | 7

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jun 22 2022 17:45 utc | 7
Yes was looking at Lithuanian Demographics the other day. (from various sources)
For every one born.. 2 die and 6.5 leave the country. Avg. age for a women 47+ men 38+... approx. ratio 1.5 women to each man.

Posted by: Heavymetal101 | Jun 22 2022 18:01 utc | 8

A lot of barbed wire at Lithuanian detention centers for refugees.
Posted by: havana | Jun 22 2022 17:34 utc | 6

Well, from US wild accusations: any barbed wires around Xinjiang buildings, indicate "inhumane Uyghur concentration camps" in Xinjiang, China, these Lithuanian centers for refugees are against US moral fibers and are in violation of human rights.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Jun 22 2022 18:04 utc | 9

Am I readying this from Martanov correctly ... http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/ ... he again wants to criticize Mearsheimer, and throws in some comments on the Brits as well, including this ...

"For starters, Russia is not going to attack UK, unless headless chickenhawks from NATO decide to commit suicide. But then it wouldn't matter anyway--Russia will rearrange stones in London and nothing UK (or, in broader terms, NATO) can do about it."

As I read it ... "Russia will rearrange stones in London" means Russia will bomb London, and .. "there is nothing UK or NATO can do about it" ... means that the UK and NATO will sit by and watch.

If my reading is correct, Martyanov is simply out of his mind. If my reading isn't correct, what in hell is the correct reading?

Posted by: Saggy | Jun 22 2022 18:13 utc | 10

@ Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2022 17:22 utc | 4
Poland will never see 250 Abrams tanks which it cannot pay for.
Poland is about to get a $38B grant from EU, so it can probably afford $5B for tanks and another $5B for F-35 mistake-jets.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 22 2022 18:14 utc | 11

@7 Aslangeo - Lithuania may have a government of reckless NATO butt-kissers, but what you're saying there is a bit exaggerated.

Lithuania birth rate is pretty much in line with European numbers overall. Growth rate around -1.5% pre covid - not going to change anything qualitatively in the next few years. The gender ratio is fairly balanced among child-bearing age and working-age. There is a bump in the 'population pyramid', with the older ages, which is unbalanced toward female. A consequence of high rate of mortality factors typical of some post soviet populations. Again, won't change things in the near future.

It's a small country with a strategic location - a small amount of money from the sponsors can make it do what they want. So it goes.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 22 2022 18:14 utc | 12

Hey B, I noticed that a lot of people were being sent from your site to my humble little blog.

I wanted to thank you, or whoever is advertising my posts here.

All the best,
Rolo

Posted by: Rolo Slavskiy

Enjoy it while you can ... they'll take you down shortly ... I promise.

Posted by: Bruce Lee Marvin Gay | Jun 22 2022 18:16 utc | 13

https://www.rt.com/business/557627-brics-developing-global-reserve-currency/

The gloves are off completely. This is probably the most dangerous move and could end up in a global war. It’s about time though. The west’s hegemony and corrupt dominance needs to end.

African countries are fully onboard plus many ME and south Asian countries. Only if they could stay in one voice, this could actually work without firing a shot.

Not optimistic though.

Posted by: Alpi | Jun 22 2022 18:18 utc | 14

@10 Saggy
You're being willfully obtuse. It literally (can you read?) means RF isn't going to be the one to start, but in the unlikely event UK starts a "serious" war, it will get it in full. Normally it's not necessary to say this kind of thing, but lately people pulling the levers are crazy.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 22 2022 18:18 utc | 15

@Paul Greenwood #4

Poland is non-viable with no energy supplies...

Poland is the "voice of coal" in Europe.

Compared with other EU member states, Poland has much larger reserves and makes good use of hard coal and lignite for electricity production with a 78.3% share in 2018 (133.0 TWh). Hard coal reserves total 22.3 billion tonnes, located mostly in the Upper Silesian and Lublin coal basins, while lignite reserves amount to 1.0 billion tonnes with a further 23.3 billion tonnes of resources.

Naturally, they are one of the biggest polluters here. In 2021 they said that they want to shut down "Europe's most polluting power plant" in Bełchatów by 2036. Thanks Russia no need to do that, I guess. Nothing is more profitable than the continuation of production with written-off equipment, providing that external costs can be kept external.

Posted by: OttoE | Jun 22 2022 18:19 utc | 16

If my reading is correct, Martyanov is simply out of his mind. If my reading isn't correct, what in hell is the correct reading?

Posted by: Saggy | Jun 22 2022 18:13 utc | 10

LOL. The trumpeting saggy baggy elephant?

Posted by: Bones | Jun 22 2022 18:20 utc | 17

@14 Alpi

It will take multiple tries probably, but this is certainly where the world is going. Just a question of time. World is sick of Anglo imperialist arrogance.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 22 2022 18:21 utc | 18

I had a few more thoughts on the Lithuania issue.

Reuters reports, according to its president that ‘no military confrontation is expected’.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lithuania-were-ready-if-russia-cuts-us-out-common-power-grid-over-kaliningrad-2022-06-22/

Therein lies both the salvation of Russia (and all of us?) and its principle challenge: one nation after another is provoking it, confident that its NATO status means it is protected from any attack.

But what would this protection mean exactly? What would be the point of Uncle Sam’s Marines landing and manning every intersection from Vilnius to Klaipeda to prevent a Russian invasion, when a volley of well placed (and unstoppable) missiles already caused every Lithuanian to go without water, gas and elx for weeks, meaning the total collapse of its economy, all without a single Russian soldier having so much as crossed the border?

And what if that was followed up with a direct address to the West by Putin, issuing an ultimatum that anyone attacking Russia or crossing its red lines like Lithuania did (violating long standing treaties that threaten its sovereignty) will succumb to the same fate.

Of course, NATO would have to respond somehow. But how exactly? Maybe a submarine based missile attack, that way no country is left directly exposed to the next wave? By who though? Biden? I don’t see it. It’s a short list of countries with such capabilities. Would Boris be keen to bomb St Petersburg to protect Lithuania? One hopes he would also show as much reluctance to do so as his fictional predecessor in Yes Prime Minister (quite prescient, and very funny despite the subject matter): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVO85anasrA&list=PLfLF9Cxz1egl9EF6CCKzPoSQJBTBZz7qo&index=39

So someone puts their hand up, Russia takes a hit, yet knowing the first example has been set already: Lithuania has been neutered and will regret it for decades, Russia gets a bloody nose but lives on. Good luck getting another politician to put themselves on the line for Uncle Sam and see their economy destroyed by standoff weapons having just seen what happened (well… maybe Poland still would, LOL).

Luckily for us all, those in the Kremlin think these things much more thoroughly, and every scenario above would risk WW3, but it’s also evident that it is NATO increasingly goading and calling Russia’s ‘bluffs’ so to speak, (Ned Price dismissing Russian protestation literally as ‘bluster’, wtf) while Russia so far has not done so with NATO.

Perhaps the right circumstances have yet to present themselves, but I would not be surprised if eventually something along those lines could happen, and the fig leaf of Uncle Sam coming to the rescue of every one of his little vassals hiding behind the US military might, could soon be exposed for the feeble promise it actually is.

As for the European armies, even in a combined effort, (once again, how many will actually sign up for the meat grinder?), it doesn’t seem there is anywhere near enough equipment, manpower or ammo in all of Europe to stand up to Russia (at the current tempo) even more than a few weeks according to: https://www.analisidifesa.it/2022/06/le-prime-amare-indicazioni-dalla-guerra-in-ucraina/ (in Italian, fyi, the writer regularly appears on major networks with a more nuanced view to the usual pro NATO propagandists)

PS: Finland also trying to talk up a big game:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/finland-is-ready-fight-russia-if-attacked-defence-chief-2022-06-22/

How? Finland appears to have 21,500 active personnel, with up to 10-12 times that available in war time. One hopes their reserves are more up to the task than Ukraine’s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Defence_Forces

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 22 2022 18:24 utc | 19

Learn from Obama and Zelenskyy: First go reformer, then switch to pro-establishment, even for comedians.
...from KyivIndependent, Ukraine:
Serhiy Prytula: ‘Flawed political system has not vanished, it has laid low until war ends’
When Russia’s full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, Serhiy Prytula, comedian turned politician, quit everything he was working on to fully devote himself to helping Ukraine.
Since then, his charity has crowdfunded over Hr 1 billion ($34 million), becoming one of the largest in Ukraine after Come Back Alive, which has raised around Hr 3 billion ($100 million).
“There is some sort of a competition for a donation,” Prytula, 40, said. “However, I have always been indifferent to it as I understand that us, the big and well-known funds, are all contributing to the same cause.”
. . .According to a March survey by InfoSapiens, Prytula is now among the most trusted politicians in Ukraine. . .here
It doesn't seem likely that Ukraine, soon to be EU candidate, will pass the (fake) democracy test any time soon.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 22 2022 18:31 utc | 20

Re: Lithuania

It's also a case of harassment being done as a provocation. Plus another treaty violation by NATO, but that's losing its shock value. Similar to, say, when water was cut off to Crimea. There will be a workaround, and eventually if they keep screwing up, something may be done that persuades them to either walk it back (more likely, as was the case in a number of previous gas-transit standoffs) or make it so much worse (less likely) that the problem is fixed at its root. The making-it-worse-and-escalating-to-another-war is less likely, because it's hard to imagine any population wanting to repeat Ukraine's experience of being so obviously and mercilessly sacrificed by NATO, for a few short weeks of propaganda victories on twitter.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 22 2022 18:35 utc | 21

@havana #6

The only conceivable excuse for seeking asylum in Lithuania is brain worms.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 22 2022 18:36 utc | 22

Posted by: Heavymetal101 | Jun 22 2022 18:01 utc | 8

Yup basically correct - about 24600 births and 48000 deaths in 2021 - albeit during COVID

To put the birth dearth into perspective there were 56000 births in 1991 over twice todays total- continual decline in natural population change since 1994 , put emigration into the equation and there will soon be nobody left

Latvia is even worse in terms of demographics and Estonia not too far behind

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jun 22 2022 18:36 utc | 23

Read on Telegram chanel that riots might be on preparations in South Africa....

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Jun 22 2022 18:40 utc | 24

@ptb 18

Agree. But it will be messy with lots economic and population casualties. To west, this is their existential threat, albeit fictitious. They could have easily divided the pie a bit more justly but no, they are in a zero sum mind set and don’t know how to crawl out of that hole.

Future is bleak.

Posted by: Alpi | Jun 22 2022 18:41 utc | 25

@15 ptb
"Normally it's not necessary to say this kind of thing, but lately people pulling the levers are crazy."
Putin has been saying it explicitly since before the war started. And, I find it a little unsettling, but, so far it is working. As for Martyanov, I can see your interpretation, but I think my reading is the 'literal' one.

Posted by: Saggy | Jun 22 2022 18:42 utc | 26

@ Et Tu | Jun 22 2022 18:24 utc | 19
What would be the point of Uncle Sam’s Marines landing and manning every intersection from Vilnius to Klaipeda to prevent a Russian invasion, when a volley of well placed (and unstoppable) missiles . . .

Yes, the US especially Biden has been so 'yesterday' by not considering Russia's alternative options to "every inch."

>Biden: We have a sacred obligation under Article 5 to defend each and every inch of NATO territory.
>“I've made it crystal clear,” said Biden, “The United States and our allies will defend every inch of … NATO territory
>Joe Biden warned Vladimir Putin not to go 'one inch' into NATO territory.
>I have made crystal clear the U.S. and our allies will defend every inch of territory that is NATO territory with the full force of our collective power.
>Russia, “Don't even think about moving on one single inch of NATO territory"

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 22 2022 18:43 utc | 27

@26 Saggy
re: Putin saying before operation - yes, and if you had better reading comprehension, he explained why. I won't repeat. Goodbye.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 22 2022 18:50 utc | 28

Simultaneously I am reading news about at least three outbreaks of three different dangerous infections in three different spots.

One alleged case of colera in Spain.

Poliomielitys virus detected in sevage waters in the UK

A case of antrax in South Russia....

I guess we all will agree these are our friends who only in Ukraine had around thirty high security biolabs.....

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Jun 22 2022 18:53 utc | 29

Posted by: OttoE | Jun 22 2022 18:19 utc | 16

I am well aware of Polish coal supplies - it is after all why Prussia acquired Silesia.

However the dependency on coal requires huge amounts of water and heavy dependance on coal extraction will blow yet another giant hole in EU Grand Design and make Poland even more politically unpalatable in Western Europe.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 22 2022 18:53 utc | 30

@ Posted by: Saggy | Jun 22 2022 18:13 utc | 10

Agreed, for all his knowledge and expertise, respectfully, when it comes to balanced analysis Martyanov can be, like many here, a very biased and grumpy patriot, who often expresses himself in maximalist terms and dismisses those that disagree with him as idiots. Which is fine for the 90% of the time he is correct.

His case is further complicated imo by the guilt and cognitive dissonance of a Russian who lives in the USA since he left his beloved country for a better life, irony of all ironies, in the terrible, hopeless and corrupt USA...

As for the "there is nothing UK or NATO can do about it" bit:

What i believe he meant, specifically, is that they can't do anything about it to prevent the attack, since NATO has no counter to Russia's missiles, meaning it must count of DETERRENCE, but of course a retaliation would occur if London was ever attacked.

If we are to believe Martyanov though, Russia can also count on superior DETECTION and INTERCEPTION capabilities. (though it's always the fear of the ones that get through that reverts everyone to DETERRENCE anyway... so i guess by the time Martyanov's argument comes into play, we are all screwed anyway)

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 22 2022 19:00 utc | 31

@Saggy | Jun 22 2022 18:13 utc | 10

"For starters, Russia is not going to attack UK, unless headless chickenhawks from NATO decide to commit suicide. But then it wouldn't matter anyway--Russia will rearrange stones in London and nothing UK (or, in broader terms, NATO) can do about it."

It means that the Russians can bomb anywhere in the UK with missiles that don't show on defence radars. If radar can't see incoming missiles, they can't be intercepted.

Posted by: Hereward | Jun 22 2022 19:03 utc | 32

@ Hereward | Jun 22 2022 19:03 utc | 32
That didn't occur to me, but, I think you're right. And it plays into Martyanov's conceit that Russia has new missiles that can't be defended against. Of, the US and several other countries have had for 50 years ICBMs which can't be defended against.

Posted by: Saggy | Jun 22 2022 19:08 utc | 33

ATTN: Michael Hudson fanbase

Are you missing the days, when every other example of World Bank loan-originating, IMF-sponsored EU enlargement profiled either of these two structurally adjusted emerging markets?

Let's recap GD IV crisis of confidence.

But one hears only celebratory praise from the neoliberal lobbyists whose policies have de-industrialized and stripped the Baltic economies of Lithuania and Latvia, leaving them debt-ridden and uncompetitive. It is as if their real estate collapse from bubble-level debt leveraging that left their basic infrastructure in the hands of kleptocrats, is a free market success story.
The Baltic Tigers' False Prophets of Austerity - Counterpunch, 2011

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 22 2022 19:32 utc | 34

Miami police buying guns from ??? to send to the Failed State. Now that is sure to help to the "fighters" in the Failed State.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/20/miami-police-ukraine-gun-buyback-weapons/

Posted by: Tom_12 | Jun 22 2022 19:34 utc | 35

so now we have:

russian village boys
chinese gangnams
Indian Dancers
South american Island Boys
and african zulus

vs

european ex saxonys
european ex normans
european ex bohemians
european ex death mate prisoners who were sent around the world as slaves and have slaves now

well..

I bet for the indy dancers :D

Posted by: Macpott | Jun 22 2022 19:42 utc | 36

I bought a new ipad, so was able to start another new account on imgur. Did that yesterday, was banned again today. This time I didn’t mention any “protected species”, and refrained from any vulgarity or “hate speech”. Purely historical background, to inform their perspective on this Ukraine thing. Still got banned. LOL.

I guess we will see each other on the flip side, as they say.

Posted by: Featherless | Jun 22 2022 19:43 utc | 37

The only conceivable excuse for seeking asylum in Lithuania is brain worms.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 22 2022 18:36 utc | 22

That cleverly disguised complaint is an artifact from last year's acrimonious, "territorial ingegrity" media campaign to divert humanitarian interest from a decade of competitive Schengen barbed wire wall building to "demonize" Belarus: The EU accuses Belarus of luring global migrants mostly muslim NATO strike refugees into other European countries

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 22 2022 19:45 utc | 38

Paul Greenwood @30
"I am well aware of Polish coal supplies - it is after all why Prussia acquired Silesia."

I appreciate Paul Greenwood's entries, but with this one I have a little trouble; Silesia did not even know that it had coal under it until AFTER the 7-year war. Coal was discovered in 1785 or so. The coal was not the reason for all the wars over it, by Frederick the Great.

Posted by: fanto | Jun 22 2022 19:54 utc | 39

Lysichansk is now almost surrounded. Retreat is very difficult. Soon will be surrender.

Its good news day. F*ck Lithuania, just a bunch of precious dodos squarking at ukusa command.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 20:08 utc | 40

The entire coal thing is more Clown World scatterbrained BS. Those plants still using coal might need non Russian sources but something no one is bring up about coal is that you need coal miners. This is one of the worst jobs in human history, people did it because they were desperate, living in remote communities with no other work. It was a generational skill past on from father to son of hard luck hard scrabble people. It was the family and community and deep rooted culture that sustained them and inured them to the hardship. The whole industry in the EU was part of a historical continuum, long interrupted. In 2022 you don't just put an ad in the classified saying coal miners needed, and the only way anyone will show up is if you are paying at least €35/hr with full benefits and modern safety regulations. IOW it'll take years to rebuild the coal industry and it'll be damn expensive.

As for firing up mothballed coal plants the only possible use is municipal electricity generation. What factory or home in the entire EU has a friggin’ coal furnace in 2022? So, is electricity supply also at risk in EU, are there cities in EU generating electricity from oil and gas? Sounds silly expensive and unlikely. Are they planning to give out electric space heaters to entire populations? Every factory that uses gas gets an electric blast furnace? All ready to go by mid October?

If neo-liberal, neo-feudal EU does go through with it expect the coal miners and plant workers to be brought illegally from Indonesia and India, that should go down just dandy. I’d guess the immediate plan is for the coal to be imported and they run the coal powered electric plants on a wing and prayer. Given what's going on in the world my guess it'll cost at least as much as oil or gas. I think central and north EU knows they are going to freeze to death and the pols are selling a crock of shit to be able to say they tried their best.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2022 20:19 utc | 41

The combined west cuts off Kaliningrad from Russia, and then tells the Russian that they have no reason to complain as this blockade is in accordance with their(!) sanctions packet.

I really love this argument. What an arrogance! What a base contempt!

You have no reason to complain, because it's MY foot that's killing your breath?!

It shows us that they didn’t get the message. They won’t get it before they are definitively defeated. In a war.

There was a European politician who once said: Last questions between nations will find their answer only on the battlefield.

I am afraid he was fucking right.

Posted by: njet | Jun 22 2022 20:19 utc | 42

Another great summary from the Military Summary channel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo2CZSNkr5A

The situation with the Donbass salient reminds me of the battle for Normandy. The latter was a very painful fight, but once the Allies were able to overcome the German resistance it was flat out to the Rhine - with only supply chain issues forcing a halt.

A good presentation on the Normandy offensive and the Operation Cobra breakout.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jALjIAfpQjk

Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2022 20:23 utc | 43

What factory or home in the entire EU has a friggin’ coal furnace in 2022? [snip]

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2022 20:19 utc | 41

Home coal furnaces are still extremely common in Eastern Europe, Poland in particular. (A quick Google search on "coal furnaces poland" confirms this with recent Grauniad articles.) When I lived in Vienna, the air reeked of coal smoke in the winter when the wind blew from the east or northeast. I recall lots of brown/black smoke in ex-Czechoslovakia too.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 22 2022 20:26 utc | 44

@ 10 saggy @ 31 Et tu

The new head of the British Army indicated he wanted to fight Russia.
Boris meatloaf is an errand boy running to Kiev
UK Foreign minister Truss wants to fight Russia

Bring it on says Andrei M & Sergei L

Let's bomb Blighty back to the bronze-age where we're headed anyhow.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 22 2022 20:40 utc | 45

Scott Ritter spends 7 minutes explaining the simplicity of the Russian treaty proposals of December '21. Focused on their specific relevance to Finland.

NATO is too stupid, too arrogant to get it.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 21:04 utc | 46

Mother Russia being led around the arena on a ring in her nose by - Lithuania. An insignificant sanddune where noone wants to live. A country whose language is a dead-end and hasn't adapted in a thousand years, and will have the status of Latin by 2050. Wow. I know, Gorbatchev is still alive, but Russia is really already haunted by his ghost.

Whatever links there still are between Lithuania and Kaliningrad, electricity, water pipes, sewers, phone lines, etc., those will be successively cut by Lithuania, with a maximum show effect. Life for the one million Russians in Kaliningrad will be made much more cumbersome. And their country will just trail behind. It only has pesky Peskov and the Kremlin's autistic legalism to deal with their neighbor. It's sad.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jun 22 2022 21:16 utc | 47

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jun 22 2022 21:16 utc | 47

Nice victim blaming you've got there.

What do you suggest, immediate capitulation of Kaliningrad?

Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 22 2022 21:20 utc | 48

as the time is related with the Ukraine-conflict in the mirror between spirit and matter, which the mundane astrologers stud,
they got to write the "astromundane diary". mundanomaniac does this in his tiny village in Bavaria at the foot of the Alpes.

30 years he did horoscopes, 15 years gave courses - after that since 15 years the blog: 'mundanes Tagebuch', 8 years in English astromundane diary.

He tries to sound each week the essence of the weekly dynamics by the archetypes of life in time, which our early ancestors
projected as the zodia on the mythical heaven, encompassing the collective unconsciousness of the northern hemisphere

25. Week 2022

https://astromundanediary.blogspot.com/2022/06/solstice-and-lurk-before-jump.html


Posted by: mundanomaniac | Jun 22 2022 21:26 utc | 49

@47

I’m afraid you are a bit behind the eight ball. The days of negotiations and legalism ended in Feb. 2022. The new Russia is not in the mood to be trusting and polite. And they are not shy about announcing it either. See the latest interviews of peskov, Lavrov and Patrushev.

And Lithuania, like many others will have to suffer to the point of losing their sovereignty and territory to learn, he who does not have an independent opinion does not deserve to have a country under their control. Simple rather.

Posted by: Alpi | Jun 22 2022 21:27 utc | 50

Kaliningrad solution could be quickly remedied in a day or two if Lukashenko tried his hand.

Lithuania resolution might take a few more days.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 21:28 utc | 51

@ 31 Et tu
case is further complicated imo by the guilt and cognitive dissonance of a Russian who lives in the USA since he left his beloved country for a better life, irony of all ironies, in the terrible, hopeless and corrupt USA..

The entire Saker Blog is a dumping ground for Western Intelligent agents who fled to the USA on protective status. The two Andrei's cannot even enter Russia. Think about that. Of all the countries to pick they ended up in the USA? How is that possible? If you were born in America that is one thing, but these two jumped through a lot of hoops to acquire residency (green cards). It wasn't a snap decision.

Some dislikes:
The Saker Blog pushed the idea that Kiev would crumble within days. And if you disagreed with them you were an idiot.

The childish gibberish of giving nicknames to things you don't like (401? or 404?) is pathetic.

If your site pushes Gonzalo Lira and not the work that Patrick Lancaster has done you are on the wrong path. Lancaster is the real deal. The problem is, unlike Lira, he is not a showman or actor. Lancaster also has no clue how to market himself. His work is easily the best by any English speaking journalist.

Posted by: Caucasian Eagle | Jun 22 2022 21:38 utc | 52

Brian Berletic at The New Atlas considers parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 21:38 utc | 53

Meanwhile, today the bottom fell out of the UA greater-Lisichansk position! Good news!

Hope they are able to complete the encirclement, which would ultimately save many lives. Likewise, hope that UA forces on the edge of the area wishing to escape pointless sacrifice, get to escape before the nazi shoot-em-in-the-back units arrive.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 22 2022 21:39 utc | 54

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 22 2022 20:26 utc | 44

Home coal furnaces are still extremely common in Eastern Europe, Poland in particular

God bless the humble and the poor they will be the only ones not to freeze this winter. The meek shall inherit the earth, or at least Poland.

As for Kaliningrad, just maybe the EU plan is to force Belarus to send troops into the gap that way they can't be used towards the upcoming Karkov seige, or to protect RF troops in Ukraine from Poland. Belarus right now is protecting Russia's Baltic flank from a NATO attack, the Kaliningrad thing might be a maneuver to make them divide their force.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2022 21:50 utc | 55

Caucasian Eagle #52

If your site pushes Gonzalo Lira and not the work that Patrick Lancaster has done you are on the wrong path. Lancaster is the real deal. The problem is, unlike Lira, he is not a showman or actor. Lancaster also has no clue how to market himself. His work is easily the best by any English speaking journalist.

Yep ++, any site with a claim of credibility should be inclusive of the many excellent sources of information on the liberation of Ukraine. Graham Phillips is ok too but I do appreciate the rough and untidy work by Lancaster - a breath of fresh air.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 21:51 utc | 56

Lira's been home alone too long, his laugh is starting to get too maniacal.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2022 21:54 utc | 57

@57 LightYearsFromHome

I dunno, must be a boatload of single horny females looking for company.

If you'd had a torch flashed up your ass by the gestapo, wouldn't you respond to the slightest creak of the floorboards?

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 22 2022 22:06 utc | 58

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2022 21:54 utc | 57
----------------------------------
I don't think he is in Kharkov, for Youtube can't find him by location, even if the Kharkov is written in English, Russian or Ukrainian. I can get all kinds of bloggers, Unian, Arestowich, and so on, but not Gonzalo Lira in that area.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 22 2022 22:14 utc | 59

If he's in Kharkov, he'd have mentioned what's happening in the city and the suburbs. But, he never says anything about that. He must be back home in the US...

Posted by: ostro | Jun 22 2022 22:17 utc | 60

Saggy | Jun 22 2022 18:13 utc | 10

Are you American?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 22 2022 22:23 utc | 61

Latest from Dejan Beric, DNR militia officer of Serbian origin: 1)War is progressing good, and morale is very good 2)Both sides use a lot of artillery of all calibers 3)There will be a provision for foreigners to serve in DNR militia under contract soon. Apparently there are a lot of volunteers, that had to be turned down thus far 4)Militiamen are so enraged with Ukrainian artillery shelling civilians in Donetsk, that they are demanding from Denis Pusilin to make provision for in-situ military tribunals for captured ukrainian artillerymen, to be tried and shot on site.

Posted by: Misa | Jun 22 2022 22:33 utc | 62

Caucasian Eagle | Jun 22 2022 21:38 utc | 52

Lancaster looks at the small picture Donbas of which most are aware. Many small pictures make up the larger picture.
The China Russia joint statement is now the larger picture. It is about the destruction of western economies and with that the so called governments through their own actions. Very much a pysop on Russia's part. Carefully calculated moves to which the west will respond to in suicidal moves.

Ukraine is part of that pysop and as such Russia will drag it out as long as possible.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 22 2022 22:34 utc | 63

#1

DO NOT GO THERE

Nice try RS but total BS

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 22:39 utc | 64

Would Boris be keen to bomb St Petersburg to protect Lithuania?

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 22 2022 18:24 utc | 19

St Peter, the home of the beautifully restored "Hermitage Museum". The old Hermitage during the greatest siege in WW2 was badly damaged .

Only a complete idiot. Or a total philistine would destroy. One of the better museums in the world. The artifacts on display. Are completely priceless.............

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 22 2022 22:42 utc | 65

WTFUD #58

If you'd had a torch flashed up your ass by the gestapo, wouldn't you respond to the slightest creak of the floorboards?

I would believe it when I see proof of presence in Karkhov. And don't try the old Kharkov chocolate shop vid.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 22:45 utc | 66

uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 22:39 utc | 64

An unknown name waiting and ready for @1 was a very obvious giveaway.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 22 2022 22:47 utc | 67

Saggy #10


"For starters, Russia is not going to attack UK, .... But then it wouldn't matter anyway--Russia will rearrange stones in London and nothing UK (or, in broader terms, NATO) can do about it."

Perhaps it is the cross cultural insult merely suggesting the brits are stone age cretins and that reassembling a few rocks on the ground would confuse their simple minds sufficient to guarantee Russian victory. Martyanov does possess a touch of arrogance mostly :))

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 22:53 utc | 68

Bad Deal Motors On #65

Only a complete idiot. Or a total philistine would destroy. One of the better museums in the world. The artifacts on display. Are completely priceless.............

Well that quality abounds in both the House of Commons, the House of Lords, the house of Windsor and...

Watch that space and best to evacuate the treasures promptly. Remember Dresden.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2022 22:59 utc | 69

@61 Peter AU1

His style of argumentation - misrepresenting / straw-manning some Russian or Pro Russian alt-media secondary source, then playing dumb when called out on it, then being superficially polite, then simply repeating his claim... makes me think he's a renamed previous visitor we get on and off every week or two, who seemed to me was in the UK but not from the UK.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 22 2022 23:35 utc | 70


US bureaucrat says US must plan for Russia dissolution: 1/9/2019, "Managing Russia’s dissolution," The Hill, by Janusz Bugajski, opinion contributor

"To manage the process of dissolution and lessen the likelihood of conflict that spills over state borders, the West needs to establish links with Russia’s diverse regions and promote their peaceful transition toward statehood.

NATO should prepare contingencies for both the dangers and the opportunities that Russia’s fragmentation will present. In particular, Moscow’s European neighbors must be provided with sufficient security to shield themselves from the most destabilizing scenarios while preparations are made for engaging with emerging post-Russia entities.

Some regions could join countries such as Finland, Ukraine, China and Japan, from whom Moscow has forcefully appropriated territories in the past. Other republics in the North Caucasus, Middle Volga, Siberia and the far east could become fully independent states and forge relations with China, Japan, the U.S. and Europe....

To avoid sudden geopolitical jolts and possible military confrontations, Washington needs to monitor and encourage a peaceful rupture and establish links with emerging entities.

The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union should serve as a lesson that far-reaching transformations occur regardless of the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns or the West’s shortsighted adherence to a transient status quo."

"Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, D.C. His recent book, co-authored with Margarita Assenova, is “Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks,” (Jamestown, 2016)."
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/424511-managing-russias-dissolution/

Posted by: susan mullen | Jun 22 2022 23:57 utc | 71

Only a complete idiot. Or a total philistine would destroy. One of the better museums in the world. The artifacts on display. Are completely priceless.............

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 22 2022 22:42 utc | 65

Well then, clearly that is a prime target.

Posted by: tucenz | Jun 22 2022 23:57 utc | 72

@ Uncle Tungsten 56 and Caucasian Eagle 52

Second that. Anyone who sits in a plush apartment and makes up a channel as an analyst is a suspect to me. Lancaster and others doing the hard work so these guys can take the glory and the exposure for 15 minutes of fame? No sir. That’s just wrong.

Posted by: Alpi | Jun 22 2022 23:59 utc | 73

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 22 2022 22:42 utc | 65
"Only a complete idiot..."

Well there was Obama and crew' ISIS or ISIL or whatever they are called now, going around doing what they did best.
Pretty sure Boris and Obama play in the same club.

Posted by: Heavymetal101 | Jun 23 2022 0:06 utc | 74

The, pro NATO semi Canadian, Bulgarian government fell today. That is very significant news.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 23 2022 0:17 utc | 75

@ Bevin,
Man I did just a quick look into the Bulgarian situation. Petkov is something. None of his easily accessible bios even mention when he left Bulgaria and became Canadian, but a Canadian degree, a Harvard MBA, backed by former hedge fund manager and appears on the scene in Bulgaria to start a brand new political party with priorities of “tackling corruption” and joining the EU, with his Harvard MBA Bulgarian buddy is just brazen. The “new Europe” project isn’t going so well.

It’s almost unbelievable that the US has so far gotten away with installing so many “dual-citizens” in Eastern Europe. Good thing they all have an escape route, because odds are good that they won’t be terribly welcome in their new/old countries for long. But I’m sure they’ve all padded their nests during the brave struggle against “corruption”.

Posted by: Lex | Jun 23 2022 0:47 utc | 76

@sln2002 (34)

Thanks for that fine 2011 article from Hudson in Counterpunch.

History is a bitch though, in neolib and neocon eyes, so they keep pushing blithely 'forward', though in reality downward, deeper and deeper and deeper.
I personally don't mind the fall -- I mind the depth, and the pushers.

Posted by: bjd | Jun 23 2022 0:55 utc | 77

I've also noted the increased activity of what some suspect are western intelligence trolls behind the absurd and pathetic attempts to discredit reality in favor of narrative engineering nonsense.
I submit that these might be low paid staff of the USG and to believe that such utter morons are within the western 'intelligence' agencies is certainly within reason, however perhaps even more likely these are just brain damaged products of western propaganda believing that they are somehow clever enough to convince fully functional and healthy human beings that the sh*t sandwiches they offer might make us decide to join them in the bullsh*t built fake world they inhabit?

Posted by: iseeit | Jun 23 2022 1:05 utc | 78

re: Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 22 2022 22:42 utc | 65

My wife and I transported the "Nicholas and Alexandra" exhibit From Kennedy Airport to Santa Fe, NM back in 2004. Like a lot of the priceless fine art we handled we didn't actually get to see any of it but we held the crated pieces in our bare hands and while we often had a security escort we certainly felt the responsibility of caring for these irreplaceable objects. We hauled an impressionist exhibit once from Spokane to Cincinnati that had no security protocols at all. There were works by Manet, Monet, Munch, Pissarro, Van Gogh, Mary Cassatt.... They just handed it over and said have a nice trip.

Posted by: Jeff | Jun 23 2022 1:27 utc | 79

On the 81st anniversary of operation Barbarossa (22. June 1941), which marked the beginning of the end of German Nazis, The German wunderwaffe "Panzerhaubitze 2000" entered service in Ukraine. Disgusting!

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 23 2022 1:34 utc | 80

one of the high value people in the Marjupol steelworks was apparently a nuclear scientist, John Spor, as reported tonight by ABC. He is founder of a company Texas Photonics , Inc.; Interesting story. Maybe some commenter knows more solid information on this?

Posted by: fanto | Jun 23 2022 1:41 utc | 81

196km across Lithuania - I wonder if the Russians could send a guarded train across to enforce their treaty rights.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 23 2022 1:42 utc | 82

@ Caucasian Eagle | Jun 22 2022 21:38 utc | 52

I agree, Patrick Lancaster is a real hero, hopefully one day he will get the credit he deserves.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 23 2022 1:45 utc | 83

The amount of noise is directly proportional to the amount of panic.

And there is a lot of noise now :)

About the sources of noise here (roughly 70% of comments?) I think most of them are operating without knowledge or direction and contrary to the objectives of the ones they identify with (rather than who they pretend to identify with —which can be anyone). If that's not the case then they're even more panicked than I think they are.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 23 2022 2:20 utc | 84

And people really need to either grok Suwalki or ignore it. The place, the area, and the border is nothing like they assume and most of the things being assumed are wrong.

To start with the name given is from a town in Poland a good distance south of the border to Lithuania, that's one hint. Then go look at some maps and try to get familiar with the area.

If the Russians or Belorussians do anything at all there then it is only to pull of some "feat of the impossible" to show off some kind of amazing abillity. There's nothing there that is relevant to the current situation, there's no east to west infrastructure (which means roads and rails in this context) because all that is further up north in southern Lithuania and that's too far north to be part of the Suwalki gap.

Right?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 23 2022 2:35 utc | 85

Hello. As promised, here is part two of my scratch history of Donbas. Part one got pretty good reads. A lot of them were refers from M of A.

It seems this is The Place if you want to get something out about the Russia/Ukraine/NATO situation or about geopolitics in general.


https://yaxls.wordpress.com/2022/06/22/the-donbas-story-2/

Posted by: tim rourke | Jun 23 2022 2:44 utc | 86

Headline:
Joe Biden Blames Putin For Killing All the Dinosaurs!
Chevron Exec Says Massive Fuel Price Increases Go Back
10 Million Years?

Posted by: Cadence Calls | Jun 23 2022 2:54 utc | 87

Better in life to have fondled, then in death, to be remembered fondly.

~ Joe Tzu

(And again...)

Women are indeed the most mysterious creatures. Therefore, how does one come to understand the female? By means of the nostril.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jun 23 2022 4:22 utc | 88

Whether or not Martyanov had this in mind when he said Russia will let the UK rearrange stones, Einstein's words bear repeating, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones" Albert Einstein


Posted by: Willow | Jun 23 2022 4:31 utc | 89

NATOland press gangs start rounding up Ukrainian citizens for cannon fodder. 21 million Ukrainian citizens live overseas, most of these are working age males, many have lived overseas since 2014.

https://readovka.news/news/101850

Posted by: Exile | Jun 23 2022 4:37 utc | 90

Re: John Spor

Posted by: fanto | Jun 23 2022 1:41 utc | 81

One of the high value people in the Marjupol steelworks was apparently a nuclear scientist, John Spor, as reported tonight by ABC. He is founder of a company Texas Photonics , Inc.;

John Spor has nothing to do with Azovstal or the Azov Brigade. According to Linkedin he has been the President of Mariupol Electronics (Маріупольс Електронікс) from March 2014.

Here is a fantasy story from CBS News.

Texas scientist John Spor rescued from Ukraine

A nuclear scientist from Texas, who's credited with designing sensitive technology found in dozens of laser-guided weapons systems used by the U.S. military, was rescued from war-torn Ukraine.

Members of the non-profit rescue organization, Project DYNAMO extracted John Spor from Russian-occupied territory deep in the country.

***

To date, the organization [DYNAMO] has rescued more than 2,000 people from the most war-torn, contested, and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine and transported them safely to neighboring countries...

This part of the story is half fiction.

Spor, was living in Mariupol, Ukraine, when the city was attacked and occupied by invading Russian forces in February. Following the siege and unrelenting brutal artillery and missile attacks, he fled his home and went into hiding.

Chechen-Russian forces ransacked his home and hunted Spor for months, according to a spokesman for the organization.

Yes, Mariupol was largely destroyed in the attack. But I am unaware that it was ever targeted by artillery or missiles. Most of the damage is caused by 125 mm tank guns firing direct fire through windows into apartments and apartment buildings.

Wherever we see artillery or rocket artillery being used on residential areas, it is Ukraine that is firing.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 23 2022 4:59 utc | 91

History Legend offer an update of the Lischansk cauldron.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 23 2022 5:42 utc | 92

While the May 9:th attack on Snake Island surely was an attempt to get a propaganda win, wouldn't the latest attack more likely be a probing attack designed and coordinated by USAF to explore RF air defense capability against a combined UAV, missile and artillery attack?

Posted by: elak | Jun 23 2022 5:44 utc | 93

Where have all the old trolls gone, long time passing?
Where have all the old trolls gone, long time ago?
Where have all the old trolls gone?
New trolls have picked them everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the new trolls gone, long time passing?
Where have all the new trolls gone, long time ago?
Where have all the new trolls gone?
Gone for other sites everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 23 2022 6:06 utc | 94

The Estonian Prime Minister forgot to mention to the two candidate countries that - by the way - Estonia will be "wiped from map" whether it is a NATO or not. https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 23 2022 6:27 utc | 95

tucenz #72

Only a complete idiot. Or a total philistine would destroy. One of the better museums in the world. The artifacts on display. Are completely priceless.............

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 22 2022 22:42 utc | 65

Well then, clearly that is a prime target.

So was Baghdad museum, and plundered.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 23 2022 6:43 utc | 96

Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, D.C....
Posted by: susan mullen | Jun 22 2022 23:57 utc | 71
-------------------------------

Janusz Bugajski is of Polish origin, so has that inborn Russo-hate...they can't change their mindset...and, thinking

Posted by: ostro | Jun 23 2022 7:10 utc | 97

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 23 2022 4:59 utc | 91
--------------------
Too bad that he didn't get caught...he must've run away in the early stages...Nuclear scientist? Oh, sure...

Posted by: ostro | Jun 23 2022 7:20 utc | 98

Want to see something spooky? Go to Liz Truss's Twitter account (UK Foreign Secretary) and there are a disturbing number of pro-Lithuanian tweets in the week before Lithuania declared a blockade on Kaliningrad.

Clearly, this is the UK pushing this confrontation, more so than Germany/France or the US.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 23 2022 7:24 utc | 99

PUBLISHED JUN 22, 2022 11:46 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE
The Ukrainian military has launched a series of strikes on Snake Island, a small but strategic rocky outpost off Ukraine's southern coast. It has been in Russian hands since the opening days of the war, and it is essential to the control of the sea lanes leading to and from Odesa. The Black Sea port is key to Ukraine's grain export sector, ...

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/ukraine-contests-sea-control-off-odesa-with-attack-on-snake-island

Is there any more / better info on this apparent kerfuffle

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 23 2022 7:43 utc | 100

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