Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 19, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-90

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on June 19, 2022 at 12:46 UTC | Permalink

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Raytheon stock is being flagged as bearish - short, mid and long term.

Guess Ukraine isn't winning after all.

Smart money sees Trump winning and then down sizing NATO.

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:09 utc | 1

People don’t seem to be talking much about the role the Wolfowitz Doctrine has played in Ukraine. In 2013, Russia stopped the U.S. from going full regime change in Syria. People here probably remember John Kerry saying the only way the US would NOT bomb Syria was if Assad gave up his chemical weapons, ‘which he’ll never do.’ Russia then forced him to give up said weapons, and handed those weapons over to the U.S. for destruction. Next thing ya know, we’re overthrowing Yanukovich and poking the bear on its own border. It seems to me that this was the true spark that set off this whole powder keg. Wondering what barflies think about it.

Posted by: Cabeman | Jun 19 2022 13:10 utc | 2

Misspelled my own username.

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 19 2022 13:11 utc | 3

@Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:09 utc | 1

If/when Trump starts a full-fledged war against Iran
for Izrael
it will be over quickly - at the speed of missiles.
No time for additional Raytheon sales.

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:17 utc | 4

@Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:17 utc | 4

I anticipate that Iran will use dirty bombs
and salt the earth where once stood the
Zionist Project.

Palestine will be uninhabitable for decades or more.

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:21 utc | 5

I anticipate that Iran will use dirty bombs and salt the earth where once stood the Zionist Project.

Palestine will be uninhabitable for decades or more.

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:21 utc | 6

Every indication I've seen so far is that Iran cares more for the rightful inhabitants of Palestine than just about any other country. I doubt they would poison the land for those rightful inhabitants.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 19 2022 13:28 utc | 6

@Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:21 utc | 6

Make that Zionist Project
Zionist Pogrom

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:29 utc | 7

@Posted by: malenkov | Jun 19 2022 13:28 utc | 7

I think the Zionists have limited their pogroms against Palestinians
for just that reason. They would be more vulnerable without Palestinian hostages.

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:36 utc | 8

I keep harping to my fellow Barflys about NATO‘s likely response to the SMO. No one seems to care. The way I see it NATO isn‘t going to simply shake hands and agree it was all just a misunderstanding. NATO will escalate along this path;

2023 - Isolate Russia and build up New Army. isolating Russia will take the form of destabilizing Russia‘s periphery as well as trying to peel away neutrals. Build up a new Army will be gang pressing some of the ~21 million Ukrainians living in NATOland.

2024 - Full Sprectrum Counter Offensive in Ukraine plus military attacks globally. The Counter Offensive will use NATO forces plus Ukrainians plus various vassals - likely using ground forces of ~500k.

My questions to Barflys are; what will prevent NATO from carrying out this insane escalation ?

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 9

For 10: They wil be prevented by having all there Arms destroyed in Country 404. 🤷🙄😉🧐

Posted by: NoOne | Jun 19 2022 13:45 utc | 10

By what insane calculus would NATO believe it could out-number and out-attrit Russia ? Can’t Russia field millions of trained reservists ?

Posted by: Dale | Jun 19 2022 13:47 utc | 11

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 10

That ones easy. Their predictable incompetance and Russias strategic brilliance.

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Jun 19 2022 13:53 utc | 12

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 10

Dementia?

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 19 2022 13:55 utc | 13

@Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 10

Has NATO done Russia a favor?
Russia is gaining battlefield experience.
They are learning about their own vulnerabilities and limitations
in weaponry, soldiers and tactics.
Next time it will be a different Russian army.

I have no confidence in Raytheon and Friends to learn a damn thing.

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:56 utc | 14

An invasion of Iran could not be carried out without a lengthy buildup period. Iraq took many month, and was a much weaper opponent. I expect Russia (& perhaps China) would arm the Iranians to the teeth during this period. S300/400 would cancel much of the US air superiority. Its not at all clear that USA could manage an invasion under such a scenario.

Posted by: Rune Denmark | Jun 19 2022 13:58 utc | 15


What the hell is going on with these delusional idiots.
It's pretty incomprehensible that this kind of demented shit stirring is still going on


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10930527/Prepare-fight-beat-Russia-World-War-Britains-general-warns.html

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 19 2022 13:59 utc | 16

Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 10

What does Russia do in 2023, then? If you're writing analysis, well, lots of interesting systems are coming online, entering serial production, departing on maiden voyages. If you're writing cope porn because you need to believe your agency is sacred and hypnotic in the face of the utter reality that nobody gives a fuck what you think, nothing. On that basis alone, the value of your scenario and you as an instant pally-pal-pal trying to form a team can be reckoned accurately.

Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Jun 19 2022 14:06 utc | 17

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 10

"My questions to Barflys are; what will prevent NATO from carrying out this insane escalation ?"

What shit have you been smokin' dude? They couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery or an orgy in a brothel.

Posted by: Shithead | Jun 19 2022 14:16 utc | 18

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 17 2022 21:58 utc | 136
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 17 2022 22:19 utc | 145

The effects you describe from MAGA, I experienced with the Trucker Convoy in Canada. In fact I regard that organic citizen-driven initiative as a bit of Black Swan to the plans of TPTB, as evidenced by the iron fist of the State reaction, as well as the ripple effects globally. In fact, I view Russia's SMO/etc in the same light as our Convoy, but with teeth. Our non-violent protest definitely served its purpose, exposing the Emperor's nakedness as well as waking Sleeping Giants worldwide. It also revealed the limitations of such, and the need for more/different strategies.

I see MoA as a unique forum among online sights, first & foremost as a community where ideas & concepts can be freely discussed w/o fear of (unreasonable) censorship, "as iron sharpens iron". But what do we now do with our newfound & honed insight, as we are surely a unique people among our family/friends? Sure we could all sit in our proverbial basements while the world burns, or we could venture more...

For me, as someone in the cesspool formally known as Canada, my focus has become my family & my nighbours

And as a commonwealth country, whose constitution was established on the Magna Carta, pursuing Lawful Rebellion seems the logical next step. Under Article 61, we have the right to enter into it if we feel we are being governed unjustly

Our "sovereign" and her govt are only there to govern us, NOT rules us. This must be done with the constraint of our common law and the freedoms asserted to us by such law. Nothing can become law in this country if it falls outside of this simple constraint. Article 61 shows quite clearly who really holds the power in the country - the people! We need to stand up, unite & take back control of our freedom before our kids grow up in a world without it

Certainly this is easier said than done & my reference to the Magna Carta - Article 61 is more of an example of what can/should be done rather than a guide. Rebellion, lawful or otherwise, does NOT depend on ANY document, but rather our collective assertion of that which already & inherently belongs to us: rights & freedoms

ALL MEN DECIDE FROM THEMSELVES whether or not they want to participate in the institution of men. The United states Supreme Court confirmed this when they said: "..., every man is independent of all laws, except those prescribed by nature. He is not bound by any institutions formed by his fellowman without his consent." - Cruden v Neale, 2 NC 338 May Term 1796

So where to begin? IMHO it starts with removing consent & voluntary servitude to corrupt institutions, as well as noncompliance & civil disobedience to rules *I* regard as w/o merit. Then I educate my family to the same - then my friends, neighbours and community & go from there

"I will accept the rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them: If I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do" - R.Hainlein

Admittedly it's easier to do in the country than the city. In add'n, the former is more conducive to freedom, liberty, serenity, independence, self-sufficiency; w the support of like-minded, "rugged individuals" for camaraderie, defense, barter, etc

Plus it's easier to be grey...

I welcome any & all comments on this, hopefully we can each find our own way to use that with which we have been entrusted with, to free & benefit those around us. Godspeed all...

Posted by: ianMoone | Jun 19 2022 14:17 utc | 19

Wolfowitz Doctrine
Posted by: Cabeman [sic] | Jun 19 2022 13:10 utc | 2

saywut?

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 19 2022 14:17 utc | 20

What the hell is going on with these delusional idiots.
It's pretty incomprehensible that this kind of demented shit stirring is still going on

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10930527/Prepare-fight-beat-Russia-World-War-Britains-general-warns.html

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 19 2022 13:59 utc | 17

Global Britain, the latest joke on the international scene. Mildly amusing that an SAS sniper got shredded recently by a Ukrainian BTR who didn't expect him to be in the area. All those years of training and he ends up like that!

Posted by: Boris Johnski | Jun 19 2022 14:19 utc | 21

In the immediate future, NATO's Madrid Summit will start June 29. General Austin: "Together, we have risen to the challenge of Putin's war of choice and Russia's assault on transatlantic security. Our allies have activated NATO's defense plans. They've deployed elements of the NATO Response Force. And they've placed tens of thousands of troops in the eastern areas of the alliance, along with significant air and naval assets under direct NATO command, supported by allies' national deployments."

So more NATO troops will be stationed in eastern Europe, helplessly watching Russia do what it will. Meanwhile, the US and its puppets are willing to countenance a global recession, deadly inflation and mounting hunger. How long will the affected masses take this rotten selfish treatment from the US, is the question.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2022 14:21 utc | 22

How will it end? Today's Martyanov post appears to me to give a totally incoherent answer. For some reason Martyanov wants to show that one of the sane voices IMO, Mearsheimer, is incompetent, just like everyone else besides Martyanov and a few of his associates ...http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/. Quoting ...

"I can easily answer his question about "where it all stops"--it is stopping now and those deliveries from NATO (and the US) make no difference whatsoever for the outcome and many in Washington begin to get it."

and, later in the same paragraph ...

"Because of that the US will escalate to nuclear threshold because it is incapable of sustaining such losses on the battlefield and war effort economically."

So, on one hand it's already over, and on the other hand it's heading toward a nuclear war.

I'm a fan of Martyanov, but his condescension is annoying, and now it is accompanied by incoherence.

Yes? No?

Posted by: Saggy | Jun 19 2022 14:24 utc | 23

The only way to hurt/beat russia is to kill the price of fossil fuels.

It worked in 1989/91.

there actions are moving in the opposite direction.

morons.

Posted by: ed_finnerty | Jun 19 2022 14:24 utc | 24

Everyone keeps using the acronym "SMO". What does it stand for?

Posted by: teri | Jun 19 2022 14:29 utc | 25

British general says.

"British troops must prepare "to fight in Europe once again" as the war in Ukraine continues, the new head of the Army has warned."

And

"There is now a burning imperative to forge an Army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle.

"We are the generation that must prepare the Army to fight in Europe once again."

Sounds like English PM Johnson and his generals will be sending more (not mercenaries) troops to Ukraine possibly even to engage in combat we know Germany already has troops in the Donbas.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-british-troops-must-prepare-to-fight-in-europe-once-again-says-new-head-of-army-12636637

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 19 2022 14:35 utc | 26

SMO
Posted by: teri | Jun 19 2022 14:29 utc | 26

lost in translation

Special Military Operation (romanize acronym)
PUTIN'S WAR (*-Eng. poetry)

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 19 2022 14:35 utc | 27

"I think the Zionists have limited their pogroms against Palestinians
for just that reason. They would be more vulnerable without Palestinian hostages."

Posted by: librul | Jun 19 2022 13:36 utc | 9

Good point! Human shields aren't much use when they're dead...

Posted by: ianMoone | Jun 19 2022 14:37 utc | 28

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 10

OK. What do we have as data?

- Russia's army has a simple statement of mission: fight to win at up to 1000 km from Russia's borders. (Russia's base in Syria is at 1000 km from the Russian border.)
- Russia's december proposal was withdrawing NATO to 1997 positions, date of the Russia-NATO founding act. (which means East Germany grudgingly accepted inside NATO)

If NATO could act, there would be F35's above Mariupol, Patriot missiles guarding the skies of Kiev, Abrams tanks rolling in Donetsk, the 101st Airborne in Crimea, and the Marines in Sebastopol. Not happening.

Instead, NATO's actions are

- a propaganda campaign, successful against NATO citizens but lukewarm reception outside NATO territory
- irritating Russia, trying to goad Russia into making an error

If I take NATO, compare costs and results, the verdict is "unconvincing". An army should be able to do more than irritate the enemy.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 19 2022 14:38 utc | 29

SMO:Special Military Operation.

Posted by: ΚΓΨ | Jun 19 2022 14:40 utc | 30

"British troops must prepare "to fight in Europe once again" as the war in Ukraine continues, the new head of the Army has warned."

And

"There is now a burning imperative to forge an Army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle.

"We are the generation that must prepare the Army to fight in Europe once again."

For some unknown, incomprehensible reason you left out the imperative behind those bold words....

Which is.....

The UK parliament just reduced authorized strength of the British Army to < 73,000 personnel....

That amounts to..... 5 divisions....

Lowest head count ever....

The UK General was trying to stop parliament reducing head count further...

Didn't work....

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 19 2022 14:42 utc | 31

My questions to Barflys are; what will prevent NATO from carrying out this insane escalation ?

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 9

Fear of being annihilated.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 19 2022 14:46 utc | 32

@sln2002, 21

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfowitz_Doctrine’>

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 19 2022 14:46 utc | 33

Listening to British army generals sabre rattle, along with the English PM Johnson talk of supporting Ukraine in any way possible we could see an escalation in Ukraine if Nato troops flood into the Donbas region, of course Nato will deny the possibility of this happening, but if we take Syria as a template, right now Nato/US troops are guarding Syrian oil wells (stealing the oil in reality) and stealing millions of tonnes of grain taking it to Iraq via their proxies.


"As part of the US military’s systematic smuggling of basic commodities out of Syria, a convoy of dozens of US military trucks has reportedly carried tons of grain from the northeastern province of Hasakah to the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq.

Local sources, requesting anonymity, told Syria’s official news agency SANA that 40 military vehicles loaded with wheat crops from silos of the Jazira Region rumbled through the al-Waleed border crossing in the al-Ya'rubiyah region and entered the Iraqi territories on Saturday."

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/06/19/684161/US-military-forces-smuggle-wheat-crops-from-northeast-Syria-to-Iraq-again--Report


Grain is already being taken out of Ukraine via rail and road and moved to Eastern European countries as part of the Lend-Lease deal between Biden and Zelensky a deal that was sealed a whole month before Putin's SMO.

I wonder if Nato/EU has decided to try and push Russian forces out of Ukraine covertly of course, but eventually Nato/EU dead and injured will be paraded and it will tell the tale that their forces are in Ukraine, complaining to Western bodies such as the UN, when this happens, will be pointless for it and other Western institutions are controlled by the West.

The West is fighting for profit, via Ukraine, Russia is fighting for its very existence I know who my monies on to prevail if it comes to that.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 19 2022 14:51 utc | 34

Tom Luongo has a new posting titled Russia’s New Rules

Below is a quote from it that needs repeating until the West gets it

"
You can decide for yourselves whether Russia is writing checks they can’t cash, but in the words of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov telling the BBC bluntly, “We do not care about the eyes of the West.” Lavrov has always been the soul of politeness and discretion when dealing with European media.

His open hostility towards his BBC interviewer was not only palpable, it was hard to argue with. He followed that up with:

“I don’t think there’s even room for maneuver left anymore,” Lavrov replied.

“Because both [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson and [Foreign Secretary Liz] Truss say publicly: ’We must defeat Russia, we must bring Russia to its knees. Go on, then, do it.”
"

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 19 2022 14:56 utc | 35

@Dr. George W Oprisko (31)

True.
But -- The UK is ready to fight the Russians to the last Pole.

Posted by: bjd | Jun 19 2022 14:57 utc | 36

No wonder I’m failing Intro to Computer Programming.

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 19 2022 14:57 utc | 37

@9, Exile;

Well that is the million dollar question. Narcissists love blustering and talking tough but tend to slink away when challenged by a peer.

Currently they are running Goebbels playbook but the era of huge enthusiastic armies in the West is over. There is no manpower.

Their manpower is composed of 80% Ukrainians, 10% Poles and 10% mercenaries.

If ordinary Ukrainians wise up and refuse to play this game any longer then that will put a quick end to it.

If not - I imagine they are gaming out the possibilities of sending some sort of expeditionary force in and creating a no-fly zone for the Western parts of the country.

You shouldn't underestimate the air power of NATO nor the viciousness of sociopaths.

@23; Saggy,

You are coming to the conclusion I reached a while back. Martynov is a bullshitter who wants to sell books and direct traffic to his blog. He enjoys attention.

As his last time in the military was 5 years in the Coast Guard in the 1980s, with the last 30 years as an expat in the USA, he has much LESS direct knowledge and credibility on the subject than people he derides like Strelkov, or Ritter..

I put him as more knowledgeable than Coach Red Pill but that is not a high bar.

Posted by: moabeobachter | Jun 19 2022 14:59 utc | 38

From Martynov.....
Moreover, Mearsheimer graduated from West Point in 1970 at the height of the America's humiliation in Vietnam and then served in the USAF through the very end of America's Vietnam debacle in 1975. In other words, his pseudo-academic trope of "offensive realism" is nothing more than a euphemism for American exceptionalism based on ignorance of the outside world and, as a matter of fact, America's main geopolitical rivals, Russia and China.

I always wondered how and why Mearsheimer came to prominence, and what his background was.

Now I know....

He is essentially an establishment poodle, as such incapable of thinking outside the box.....

FYI....

I read, write, and speak Russian. I go directly to Russian sources for both text and videos of what Russian elites say, and do....

I taught in Shenzhen, China at Shenzhen University for 3 years. I have fluent native speakers of both Mandarin, and Cantonese, who tell me exactly what Xi and his fellow elites say, and do....

That is.... since I want to know what both the Chinese and Russians intend... I read their original utterances...

I don't use intermediaries like Mearsheimer...

So, what do the Russians intend????

At SPIEF, Putin himself said the war would most probably continue into 2023, that under no circumstances would the DPR/LPR be abandoned, and that Russia would continue the Special Military Operation (SMO) until it's goals are achieved...

Which are....

1. De-Nazification of Ukraine
2. De-Militarization of UKraine.
3. Return of NATO to it's pre 1979 borders.
4. Creation of the G-8
5. Creation of a trading block comprising friendly countries of EurAsia, Africa, & South America.

Yesterday, on his birthday, Xi called Putin at SPIEF, to affirm Chinese/Russian solidarity...

Regarding Pakistan....

Imran Khan deposed via parlimentary machinations engineered by the CIA.

All promises to the new regime have been voided.

Pakistan now suffering 18 hour black outs in mid-summer.
Pakistan now short on bread...

Neither the Russian deal on wheat, nor the gas deal are moving forward.

US meddling has rapproachment with Iran and sourcing of Iranian gas, electricity, oil, on hold....

Khan wants a nationwide civil protest at 2000 -- 19 June 22, nationwide...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 19 2022 15:00 utc | 39

Send one of those to London
Kinzhal missile strike in Ukraine. Absolutely terrifying.

https://twitter.com/51st__State/status/1538246067262832643?s=20&t=JCM82os4LeuccjUe_Xxssg

Reply

Posted by: Andrew B | Jun 19 2022 15:00 utc | 40

Dr George W. Oprisko (31)


On reducing the armed forces this is what it says at the bottom article.

"The Government set out plans last year to reduce the size of the regular Army, lowering the target size from 82,000 personnel to 72,500 by 2025.

When the announcement was made in March 2021, the Army had around 76,500 regular soldiers."

I fail to see how that would stop them sending some sort of force, granted not a large one but neverthless, Nato is the sum of its parts however disproportionate they me be.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 19 2022 15:01 utc | 41

@39;

Obviously Mearsheimer is establishment. What do you expect him to be, a Maoist?

He is notable because he is one of the few establishment voices who are not foaming at the mouth neocons.

Posted by: moabeobachter | Jun 19 2022 15:03 utc | 42

How about this:

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/06/17/vivatech-2022-zelenskyy-hologram-urges-big-tech-to-help-ukraine-defeat-the-empire

As to: what will prevent NATO from carrying out this insane escalation ?
I would say - nothing, if the same minds continue to be in charge, as evidenced by their policies and actions forever to this day.
So the real question is: who/what will prevent these/such minds of being in charge in the trans-atlantic area and most international institutions?
IMO, Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 9 deserves a serious, well-considered discussion, or no discussion at all.

Posted by: JB | Jun 19 2022 15:05 utc | 43

@43,JB;

Since there is hardly any opposition in Northern Europe, no idea. A military coup? However the NATO generals sound just as insane as the political "leaders".

Southern Europe needs to start realising that the neurotic and insane demagogues who spend half their lives in gloomy darkness are not their friends and will be leading them down a primrose path, as Mearsheimer might say.

Posted by: moabeobachter | Jun 19 2022 15:17 utc | 44

@Exile #9
You said

what will prevent NATO from carrying out this insane escalation ?

NATO simply cannot escalate. They don't have the men, they don't have the training, they don't have the equipment, they don't have the political/demographic will.

I'm not saying NATO could never do it - but the time, effort and cost required to change the above is in the decadal, society wide and trillions scales.

Do you see any evidence of such activity? I have not.

On the other hand, I can see all manner of bullshit activities like sending 3 helicopters or 6 rifles or 12 helmets that are then billed as "escalation", but these won't be in reality.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 19 2022 15:17 utc | 45

The worst thing is that:
- this war is not even about Ukraine, Ukraine is just the pretext for a war against Russia that the imperialists in the West had been looking for for years
- things were fine for Europe, our relationship with Russia was ok, had it not been for the meddling of Americans and Brits
- the war is in vain for Ukraine because no matter how it ends, there is no way Ukrainians and Russian-speakers in Donbass, Crimea and probably even the liberated regions will ever want to live with Ukrainians again; they hate each other so much that the only solution is splitting Ukraine up; borders are not sacred, look at Sudan: after a long civil war they decided to split the country, that was the only way to stop the war

For us Europeans the biggest problem is not even economic, but the fact that within just a few months Europe has openly turned into a dictatorial bully that throws all the things overboard that it was trying to force on the rest of the world, like freedom of speech, freedom of press etc.

Posted by: Nico | Jun 19 2022 15:18 utc | 46

After Ukraine is settled come Iran,Iraq, and Syria. Rus will be in the background.. Mini-nukes as in Beirut will be used, I suspect by both sides. Won’t be pretty. Alternatives? Maybe.

Tusky

Posted by: Tusky | Jun 19 2022 15:21 utc | 47

@45, c1ue;

Between all the NATO countries they have enough men to mount an expeditionary force. By press ganging Ukrainian males in EU countries they can have a large supply of cannon fodder.

Their training is good enough.

They have plenty of equipment between them.

The most important equipment for NATO is their air forces, where they are absolutely dominant. Don't care what boosters like Martynov have to say on the matter.

As I have often said here, Western leaders - who are narcissistic sociopaths - perceive the new Russian state as being inherently weak. That is why they keep pushing.

Posted by: moabeobachter | Jun 19 2022 15:21 utc | 48

Having started WW II, the English seem to have forgotten who paid for and ended it, despite the traditional perfidy of Albion. See e.g. Link to Operation Unthinkable @ Wikipedia.

Posted by: Hermit | Jun 19 2022 15:22 utc | 49

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 19 2022 15:00 utc | 39
Thanks for the synopsis.
Succinct and no means to claim any ignorance or ambiguity.
That is the Russians plan.
Let's watch it unfold.
And if anything happens to change it.

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 19 2022 15:25 utc | 50

Posted by: JB | Jun 19 2022 15:05 utc | 43

That looks like playing a piano with a digital penis. An actor playing for the crowd used to live in a fantasy techno world. But the choice is clear, your stomach or your techno fantasy which is bound to end anyway when electricity goes out.

Posted by: Paco | Jun 19 2022 15:26 utc | 51

@40

That 'kinzhal' video is an obvious fake.

@9

"2023 - Isolate Russia and build up New Army....."

Stopped reading right there and literally couldn't stop laughing.

Posted by: Sailing by | Jun 19 2022 15:28 utc | 52

"Because both [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson and [Foreign Secretary Liz] Truss say publicly: ’We must defeat Russia, we must bring Russia to its knees. Go on, then, do it.”
"
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 19 2022 14:56 utc | 35

Liz and Bojo have been challenged quite publicly to shit or get off the pot.
Just like that guy who took over the UK land forces.

Good for bluster and reneging on deals done.
As Putin noted.
Not agreement capable.

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 19 2022 15:31 utc | 53

@Passerby #29
I think every one of your examples of proof are contingent on a laundry list of assumptions - few of which are going to pan out.

For example: the F35. 450 have been made, but how many are actually in Europe?

There are a bunch on order, but it isn't clear there are even 50 in the entire area right now, including American ones. Vermont sent in 4, the Dutch sent 2. Yhey better be like the Last Starfighter...

Abrams tanks: there are maybe 1000 total Abrams in the entire EU plus UK. Sounds impressive until you consider that Ukraine had 2,100 tanks at the start of 2/24/2022 - and Russia has 12,270. And while the 12,270 aren't all T90s - the Abrams was fielded first in 1980 so it isn't exactly a spring chicken, either.

Patriot, Marines, 101st - penny packets.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 19 2022 15:31 utc | 54

librul @ 4

Iran is a bridge too far for Israel and the US. If they cant get it done in Ukraine they sure as hell can't get it done in Iran.

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 19 2022 15:32 utc | 55

"Special Military Operation (romanize acronym)"

A minor point, but grammatically speaking there is a difference between an acronym and an alphabetism. Not that most people would care.

Posted by: Robert Konrad | Jun 19 2022 15:33 utc | 56

The most important equipment for NATO is their air forces, where they are absolutely dominant. Don't care what boosters like Martyanov have to say on the matter.

Posted by: moabeobachter | Jun 19 2022 15:21 utc | 48

You may not appreciate what Martyanov has to say, but I am sure that cooler heads in NATO are very much cognizant of the same facts Martyanov points out. Namely, the age of air force is quickly passing, not only because of the improved air defense systems, but mainly because air force bases, airfields, carriers etc. are easily destroyed by standoff weapons against which NATO has no defense.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 19 2022 15:35 utc | 57

For us Europeans the biggest problem is not even economic, but the fact


that within just a few months Europe has openly turned into a dictatorial bully that throws all the things overboard that it was trying to force on the rest of the world, like freedom of speech, freedom of press etc.

Posted by: Nico | Jun 19 2022 15:18 utc | 46


Very, very good observation and lost in All the moralistic condemnation.
Van DER Leyden really lives up to her Fondalying nick name.
The public face of EU hypocrisy.

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 19 2022 15:35 utc | 58

@19 IanMoone:

Nice post. You're the kind of guy I'd like to have as a neighbor.

I certainly agree that as a free person, I am responsible for my moral choices, and that I am fully capable of - and duty-bound to perform - civil disobedience where I see it's warranted.

Like you, I encourage others to perfect one's conception of one's own self-interest, and the nature my covenant with the State, and to understand when and where the State, and the people behind the State's actions - need input, modification, and correction.

A good Constitution is a handy thing, and a culture that knows how to use that tool in the citizen's own interest, and promotes the individual acts of courage and commitment to make good on that Social Contract...well, that's even better!

So I say good on you; I hope things continue to work out well for you 'n yers.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jun 19 2022 15:38 utc | 59

The actions of Lithuania's "leadership" in shutting down Kaliningrad's rail link to the rest of Russia in spite of their country's existence/formation being founded on the agreement of the rail link is an example of how the draft-dodging-warriors, [or do you say service-adverse-bullies] of the Clinton/Cheney/Obama/Biden-administration [singular intended] only know bluff and bluster...oh and a using the civilian shield of Europe and the USA.

And that's the crux of the problem, the people who cause these conflicts are, immune from their consequences. There is no downside to war in DC and in various capitals of the world.

That said; I don't think will respond to Lithuania's pipsqueak move but, the Russia will remember and at a time and place of their choosing they will serve Lithuania some very cold revenge. Heck-of-job boys & girls of the Clinton/Cheney/Obama/Biden-administration [singular intended], you've shoved another country down the maceratoring toilet of war...heck-of-job.

Posted by: S Brennan | Jun 19 2022 15:40 utc | 60

@moabeobachter #48
I can't say that anything of what you stated as fact, is supported by any kind of evidence whatsoever.

This isn't 1880 - you can't just slap a rifle into a dude's hands, train him for a few days and ship him off to the front and expect to get any beneficial result.

An expeditionary force composed of German, Dutch, Polish and Baltic troops would be crushed like a grape. The Ukrainians had the 3rd largest military in NATO; were trained to and above NATO standards; are experienced from 2014 onward literal fighting and are fighting pretty hard now - and they are getting smashed.

I don't see any possibility that European NATO forces would even match up - they are certainly inferior to a visible degree.

EU air forces? Same deal. None of them have conducted combat operations in almost a generation. None of them have gone up against even old Soviet equipment since Serbia/Yugoslavia.
In contrast, Russian air defenses and air force have been dueling with Turkey and Israel for years in Syria. As I have noted above - the numbers of F35s in Europe is likely well under 50. The F35 itself hasn't even been tested against its design specs. The other planes have never flown in a peer combat environment - maybe they'll do ok, maybe not but the sheer numbers are simply not very high.

Then there's the ground combat equipment aspect: the Western European NATO forces are a joke. They can't even transport their own troops; they don't have much equipment in numbers and the combat quality is unknown but not likely high.

And while NATO and EU political leaders may be delusional - the people in the militaries are not. Ukraine is right there - they know full well just what they would be facing.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 19 2022 15:40 utc | 61

Saggy/ post 23
Definitely YES. He's great in so many ways. Yet, lately every day he's knocking yet another guy who doesn't exactly agree with him. The whine has become very tiresome there, what with his impersonation of Stalin and his chorus of eager Yagodas and Yezhovs. I love Russia. I love the Russian Empire and the great Romanov house that lead it so magnificently. Bolscheviks were and are scum.

Posted by: res | Jun 19 2022 15:49 utc | 62

40

How do the Russians so often know exactly where the Ukrainians are storing Western arms? Like in this case 137 meters under the surface?

Posted by: Nico | Jun 19 2022 15:50 utc | 63

40

How many of those Kinzhal thingies do they have?
Can they still make them in view of the sanctions? I suppose they require microchips and such things...

Posted by: Nico | Jun 19 2022 15:52 utc | 64

@61, c1ue

"This isn't 1880 - you can't just slap a rifle into a dude's hands, train him for a few days and ship him off to the front and expect to get any beneficial result."

This is just what Ukraine has done and is doing. They have stalled or at least slowed down the Russian advance significantly, which is a beneficial result.


As I have noted above - the numbers of F35s in Europe is likely well under 50. The F35 itself hasn't even been tested against its design specs. The other planes have never flown in a peer combat environment - maybe they'll do ok, maybe not but the sheer numbers are simply not very high.

In total NATO has about 20,000 military aircraft - of which US counts for 13,000.

Russia has about 4000 in service.

Older combat planes like F-16s, Mirages, Eurofighters, F-15s, etc., are equally capable to their RF counterparts.

If you want to compare 5th gen fighters then Russia has about 10 Su-57s in service while the USA has 180 F-22s.

From the US perspective it would be great for Europeans to throw their forces into the battle and get decimated, and then have the USAF clean up.

Imagine all the arms contracts when the EU has to replenish their squadrons!

Posted by: moabeobachter | Jun 19 2022 15:53 utc | 65

librul @ 4

Iran is a bridge too far for Israel and the US. If they cant get it done in Ukraine they sure as hell can't get it done in Iran.

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 19 2022 15:32 utc | 55

Or Russia. And Stupid to try. They just cannot help themselves.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 19 2022 15:56 utc | 66

@40; terrifying video of Kinzhal strike;

That video is fake - VFX.

It is a copy of this YT video "What if Russia Started Nuclear War?" from 22 February.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ67hVlxM-8

Posted by: moabeobachter | Jun 19 2022 15:56 utc | 67

Cannon fodder written all over the faces of these poor souls.

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/status/1538499734012411904

Posted by: Tom_12 | Jun 19 2022 15:57 utc | 68

From southern Europe a very personal view and/or rant, I’ve had it with all those clean, tall, blond, blue eyed northern übermensch, I don’t need heating in winter or AC in summer, I do not own a motor vehicle even though I have access to one once a week, I live in a small town and have access to fresh fish some months, olive oil from a small patch of land and if forced into it I could go for planting potatoes and some veggies, oranges, lemons, artichokes and figs available as it is with minimal work, so I look to the north and I see those drunkard Brits that come to booze themselves to unconsciousness and burn their skin to shrimp tone, I look at those assholes netherlanders who love to cycle around in groups -tell me of a company or a country that changes its name, from hole land the land of the hole to Netherland, that sounds like a drugged out zombie- I look at those sweeds so civilized and industrious refusing to pay for serious environmental damage done by one of their companies, Germans, not as bad as the rest but look at VonDer…. what ever, and on top of it they call us clubMedders pigs, I tell you it is going to snap, and our table will be served while you will have to eat your rusty screws.

Posted by: Paco | Jun 19 2022 16:07 utc | 69

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 19 2022 14:46 utc | 33

srsly? You kids ... lol
The Project for a New American Century (PNAC) has many vaters, not one.
Just as the THIRD US American red scare had many vaters since 1871, not one.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 19 2022 16:11 utc | 70

West at inflection point in Ukraine war
. . .from M. K. Bhadrakumar

. . .Paradoxically, the long war in Ukraine could only work to Russia’s advantage. President Putin’s speech at the SPIEF at St. Petersburg on Friday shows how thoroughly Moscow studied the western financial and economic system and identified its structural contradictions. Putin is adept at using the weight and strength of his opponents to his own advantage rather than opposing blow directly to blow. The West’s overextension can ultimately be its undoing.

That’s where the actual inflection point lies today — whether the structural contradictions in the western economies have matured into disorder. Putin sees the West’s future as bleak, hit simultaneously by the blowback from its own imposition of sanctions, and the resultant spike in commodity prices, but lacking agility to deflect the blows due to institutional rigidities.

The big question today is at what point Russia retaliates against the countries who are involved in the gun-running business in Ukraine if they accelerate on that path. The air strikes by Russian jets last Thursday on the militant terror groups harboured in the US garrison at Al-Tanf on the Syrian-Iraqi border may well have carried a message. . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 19 2022 16:15 utc | 71

Barflys thank you for your answers.

The gang pressing of those ~21 million Ukie citizens living in NATOland has begun. With Poland being asked to deport all military aged Ukie males

https://mobile.twitter.com/Malinka1102/status/1537891180695810049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1537891180695810049%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2022%2F06%2Flinks-6-18-2022.html

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 16:17 utc | 72

@Librul "If/when Trump starts a full-fledged war against Iran"

1) Iran considers nuclear weapons "haram" or "forbidden" and is likely to refrain from first use.

2) Iran has the ability to destroy the oil infrastructure of the Middle East, and so could destroy what is sarcastically referred to as Western "civilization", including the USA Iran probably has the ability to make oil fields unusable, and may use this, in extremis. As modern agriculture is the process of converting oil to food, and just-in-time cost-savings have practically eliminated global food reserves, this would lead directly to the death of 30% to 60% of the current global population. I'm not sure that anyone bar a few oligarchs would appreciate this. Including Americans.

3) Iran has the ability to pulverize it's obvious enemies with carefully mirrored missiles, the West and Israel having helpfully warned them that anti-missile lasers might be used. Large thermostatic weapons deployed as reinforcing clusters could be as destructive as nuclear weapons without the harmful sequelae.

4) Iran has the ability to sink US carrier groups, and will probably attempt to do so if attacked. This would be even more devastating to the tattered remnants of the USA's prestige than the USA's complete inability to prevent the unanticipated outcome of the ongoing debacle it initiated in the Ukraine.

5) Iran is a modern industrialized country filled with smart people descended from the inventors of chess. Since overthrowing the AngloAmerican puppet government imposed on them after the war, Iran has had over half-a-century in which to prepare for war with the USA. In this time, Iran has had every opportunity to observe the US prove that Snakes and Ladders are beyond them, let alone checkers, losing in every significant conflict in which they have engaged, as a direct result of completely unnecessary beligerance, arrant stupidity and total incompetence. I think that Iran will succeed in surprising the planners of such a war, and making the costs unbearable for it's opponents.

6) The USA would probably respond to an impending devastating loss with nuclear or biological attacks, which would almost certainly result in WW III and the elimination of most extant life on this planet, including humans

If, despite the above, the USA were to violate sense and International law, one might hope that they would move valuable art treasures looted from around the world from Washingto, Chicago, Denver,Seattle and New York to some safe repository where future alien visitors to our glowing planet would be able to admire the remnants of what we achieved before eliminating ourselves.

Posted by: Hermit | Jun 19 2022 16:17 utc | 73

@23 Saggy:
Martyanov is nostalgic for the Soviet past. That seems to have been the highlight of his life, and the fall of the USSR seems to have been some sort of personal humiliation for him.
If Russis still were an atheist communist state, there would be no reason to support it. The only reason I support Russia, is b/c it has since returned to it's Christian roots, unlike the West which actively rejects Christianity. In fact Putin has elevated the Orthodox faith to become the foundation of the Russian state. Martyanov also does not seem to have a relation to that faith, he just wants back the old glory of the USSR. His motive is not clean.

Posted by: xeen | Jun 19 2022 16:20 utc | 74

Exile @ 9

I completely agree. The US is almost totally predictable in that respect. It does, of course, almost guarantee that we will see a like buildup by Russia. If the Russians don't build up to counter the US and NATO that's a fair indication they will use nuclear weapons to stop the eventual assault.
Americans can't help thinking they're engaged in gamesmanship. Its their typical "magical" thinking. One tactical use by Russia will change all of that. Of course, it will be too late then to stop the inevitable catastrophe.

Posted by: Hoggy | Jun 19 2022 16:23 utc | 75

Looks like the poop is about to get really thin in the western world. https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-%f0%9f%92%a5-theme-kalibr-kaboom/

I just thought that the Russians were slowing down for the weekend to move some fresh troops in to the 404. Looks like the Ukie generals and their staff did too. I was wrong and the generals and their staff were too very much to their surprise. Mister Kinzhal decided to deliver his christmas presents early this year. Whoops.

I honestly hope the west takes this as a wake up call and let's Lithuania and Poland know it's time to stop playing stupid games with a very angry bear.

Time will tell. Now would be a good time to start putting some food stocks away in the root cellar.

Posted by: Craig | Jun 19 2022 16:28 utc | 76

Posted by: Paco | Jun 19 2022 16:07 utc | 69

Lo, these many decades, Revenge of the PIIGS cometh and they/their/them "aspiration" was not named [6-speed NEuro] Karen.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 19 2022 16:29 utc | 77

Martyanov is nostalgic for the Soviet past.
Posted by: xeen | Jun 19 2022 16:20 utc | 74

What information led you to that conclusion?

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 19 2022 16:30 utc | 78

Posted by: ianMoone | Jun 19 2022 14:17 utc | 19

Hear, hear.

Posted by: osi | Jun 19 2022 16:31 utc | 79

What may prevent nukyular war in the future near; or may be preventing it now on either side, is the threat of kompromat.

The leaders are by default compromised.

Dirty, perverted, corrupt, pedos, murderers...

Skeletons in the closets everywhere.

It's on still photos and video.

There are witnesses.

Who will expose whom first?

Everyone is holding their hand of cards close to the chest.

Go ahead, lay one down.

There is enough to shatter the foundations of phony democracy.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 19 2022 16:34 utc | 80

Might be a good time to brush up on the old skills like making pemmican etc. I guess this book might be good. Other books like prairie cook books might not be such a bad idea to download or order at this point in time. https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Pemmican-Recipe-Prepared-Family-ebook/dp/B01A30TWC8

Posted by: Craig | Jun 19 2022 16:36 utc | 81

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 19 2022 14:57 utc | 37

Low- or high-language library? Fear not! There's an app for that. It's name is npm.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 19 2022 16:37 utc | 82

For No. 9
What will prevent NATO?
China and Russia together will defeat NATO by cutting
off commodities, medicine, iPhones, computer chops, trinkets, spare parts. and energy supplies. The service sector countries (NATO) will collapse like a house of canards

Posted by: Willow | Jun 19 2022 16:40 utc | 83

Via Slavyangrad telegram https://tass.com/defense/1468091 Reputely Some Aidar surrendered. Fighters of the Aidar nationalist battalion, including the commanding staff, surrendered voluntarily near Severodonetsk, a source in the People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic told TASS.

"The mop-up of Metelkino settlement [a village close to Severodonetsk - TASS] ended tonight. Many Aidar fighters surrendered, including commanding personnel of this punitive national battalion," the source said.

Also some reports of a major strike at a rail yard of fresh competent AFU troops


Also via Olaf at Slavyangrad

High-precision airborne missiles at 19:20 hit a train carrying personnel, weapons and military equipment of the 1st Battalion of the 14th Independent Mechanized Brigade, which arrived from the city of VLADIMIR-VOLYNSKY to the combat zone in Donbas.

More than 100 AFU servicemen, 30 tanks and armored combat vehicles were destroyed as a result of the strike at the unloading point of the train near the Gubinikha railway station in Dnepropetrovsk region. .

Posted by: paxmark1 | Jun 19 2022 16:40 utc | 84

How do the Russians so often know exactly where the Ukrainians are storing Western arms? ...

Posted by: Nico | Jun 19 2022 15:50 utc | 63

That specific video appears to be bogus but your question is still interesting.

So, regular spying (corrupt officials, genuine RF patriots, ...), hacking, satellite / drone surveillance etc.

Or, my personal favourite, DoD tip-offs in exchange for the quiet return of high ranking Yankee POWs?

There’s basically no US government in any classical sense, just gangs with their own interests, so the idea of the DoD selling out the whole “allied” war effort, just to protect its media image from the damage that a senior POW perp walk would do, should be completely uncontroversial =)

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 19 2022 16:48 utc | 85

@sln2002, 70
I totally realize there are a whole lot of layers to all of this, however I think the big catalyst in bringing the west’s wars to Russia was this 2013 violation of the Wolfowitz Doctrine. It made the US realize that they hadn’t been paying enough attention to the development of a near peer competitor and forced the US to immediately do something about it. I just think this point is under-discussed. I don’t think the U.S. was planning on confronting a ‘resurgent’ Russia so soon.

@82

It’s JavaScript. I’m majoring in Film Scoring though, so it’s not exactly the same thought processes. I will check out that app for sure though, thank you, it looks exactly like what I need!

Also I’m 41, even if I do seem a bit naïve! =)


Posted by: Caveman | Jun 19 2022 17:00 utc | 86

@moabeobachter #65

You said

"This isn't 1880 - you can't just slap a rifle into a dude's hands, train him for a few days and ship him off to the front and expect to get any beneficial result."

This is just what Ukraine has done and is doing. They have stalled or at least slowed down the Russian advance significantly, which is a beneficial result.

No, sorry, you have drawn entirely the wrong conclusions.
Russia's progress is not hindered by the speed in which they slaughter Ukrainian Territorial Defense forces. It is hindered because they are reducing fortifications in the Donbas built up for 8 years since 2014.

You said


As I have noted above - the numbers of F35s in Europe is likely well under 50. The F35 itself hasn't even been tested against its design specs. The other planes have never flown in a peer combat environment - maybe they'll do ok, maybe not but the sheer numbers are simply not very high.

In total NATO has about 20,000 military aircraft - of which US counts for 13,000.

Russia has about 4000 in service.

Older combat planes like F-16s, Mirages, Eurofighters, F-15s, etc., are equally capable to their RF counterparts.

If you want to compare 5th gen fighters then Russia has about 10 Su-57s in service while the USA has 180 F-22s.

From the US perspective it would be great for Europeans to throw their forces into the battle and get decimated, and then have the USAF clean up.

Imagine all the arms contracts when the EU has to replenish their squadrons!

The numbers of aircraft are largely meaningless; the US relies enormously on airpower for offensive strikes against helpless opponents as well as enormous air transport.

Again, you mistake numbers of C130s and C5s and other transport craft vs. actual combat craft.

But the biggest mistake is assuming the Russian military has the same doctrine as the US/EU. Russia doesn't try to win wars against helpless opponents by bombing them into the Stone Age. They win by crushing them on the ground. And their air doctrine is primarily about preventing both air superiority and air supremacy.

It is not clear at all, to me, that NATO can achieve air superiority in a short period of time, much less air supremacy given the present relative capabilities. Note this isn't just my view. A number of US military analysts have publicly said the same thing: that it is not clear that NATO or the US could achieve air superiority for multiple weeks at the start of a conflict. Fighting against a peer adversary that can ECM, that can shoot/blind satellites, that can take down drones, that has overlapping fields and layers of air defenses as well as enormous numbers of MANPads etc is a very different situation than taking down Iraqi air defenses.

This is compounded by the fact that very few of the US' 13,000 planes are in Europe; they are scattered all over the world and on US aircraft carriers.

Perhaps you can dig up some actual numbers as to the literal combat aircraft Europe possesses and the same for US aircraft actually in or very near Europe and then contrast with the many air defense armies - air defense is a completely separate military branch in the Russian military.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 19 2022 17:06 utc | 87

How do the Russians so often know exactly where the Ukrainians are storing Western arms? ...

Posted by: Nico | Jun 19 2022 15:50 utc | 63

So, regular spying (corrupt officials, genuine RF patriots, ...), hacking, satellite / drone surveillance etc.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 19 2022 16:48 utc | 85

Or, the most likely, that the majority of underground storage and other facilities were built during the Soviet era.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 19 2022 17:12 utc | 88

@Sailing by | Jun 19 2022 15:28 utc | 52
I agree to both, the fake, and the laughing. The explosion was most prolly videoshopped from a nuclear explosion (which is why the blast wave as well as the heat wave are missing :) ).
As to the troops buildup, the US and EU spent 50b$ for a few hundred scrap tanks, a few ten thousand ATGM and MANPADS, and some dated artillery. Raytheon, Boeing etc. happy. But for a 100 division army like Hitler mustered, how many trillions would it take? And would Russia really sell the Titanium, Palladium, the Neon for the circuits to equip it? ROFL

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 19 2022 17:16 utc | 89

A Russian Kinzhal missile at 12,000 kilometers per hour, 10 times faster than sound, was, reportedly, used today to destroy a Ukrainian weapons depot 136 meters underground. (Listen to the astonishment of the American reporter when he suddenly saw this). via
@Dmitry65smols
https://twitter.com/51st__State/status/1538246067262832643?s=20&t=Tv5dXIbSD4H0EpazFGql4g

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 19 2022 17:21 utc | 90

The video below is great stuff. Some grim prediction that wouldn’t be so hard to believe.

https://youtu.be/SvVC1VBiWKM

Ritter and McGovern are very much on point. Poroshenko’s admission of Minsk agreement was just a stop gap to buy time for future attacks and military training, has rendered any negotiations with the west dead on arrival. Russia will not stop until all of its objectives are met. If US/EU want to get in the way, they will be run over.

EU right now has bigger problems. Like not having energy for its economy. And US, well, it is a shitshow of first order.

I’m afraid Russia and China are poised to roll the table with US/EU as spectators. And it is about time.

Posted by: Alpi | Jun 19 2022 17:23 utc | 91

I'm a fan of Martyanov, but his condescension is annoying, and now it is accompanied by incoherence.

Yes? No?

Posted by: Saggy | Jun 19 2022 14:24 utc | 23

Yes, it is annoying. I am glad I am not the only one put off by his latest writing.

One thing Martyanov doesn't seem to understand is that he is not Mearsheimer's intended core audience. Mearsheimer is trying to raise awareness among audiences which have not been following the developments around Russia and Ukraine for the last decade(s).

Posted by: Martina | Jun 19 2022 17:31 utc | 92

Somehow without my knowledge or consent I became subscribed to 'Change dot org's listserve mailing list for their petitions, and they are sending me petitions that I am asked to 'sign' by a click-on. When I cliked-on the link to unsubscribe to this, I was asked to supply 'my password', so I clicked 'lost password' and they again asked for my email address, and said they would send me a new password. Ive been waiting 20 minutes, and still no password.

So, I went directly to their website, www.change.org, and one of their 'victories' was a 'successful' petition to get PayPal to operate in Nazi Ukraine. YAY!!!

I used to think of myself as somehow vaguely 'leftist', (which the corrupt 'Change' organization seeks to be seen as. I now regard them as fascisto-left Nazis, not so unlike the Ukro-Nazis that they support.

As for myself, I might just say that I am anti-capitalist.

Posted by: blues | Jun 19 2022 17:31 utc | 93

@Pagan | Jun 19 2022 17:12 utc | 88
I assume all of the three to some extent.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 19 2022 17:34 utc | 94

I am trying to get my head around why the US/NATO would want to escalate the war with Russia, when it is perfectly evident that Russia has the superior military by a wide margin. Why would the western alliance not try to end the war, rather than expand it to Lithuania, Poland and ultimately other NATO nations, including the US? The only answer that comes to mind is that US policy makers know only one way to act, which is with arrogance and belligerence. They must, at all costs, keep trying to assert their supposed superiority. Getting crushed on the battlefield and in their own domestic economies is someone else's problem, as they see it. Also, expanding the war is a boon to their pals in the MIC, which many of those same policy makers hope to join in due time.

Or, hopefully, they will think twice about escalation and decide that reasonable negotiations with Russia are a wiser course.

Posted by: Rob | Jun 19 2022 17:44 utc | 95


teri | Jun 19 2022 14:29 utc | 26

SMO (Russian Special Military Operation to aide the newly recognized Independent Countries of Lugansk and Donestk subsequent to the illegal coup in Ukraine attacking and killing the civilians of the Donbas for eight plus years) is an analog to NATO's "peace-support operation" since 1999 in Kosovo which was an extension of NATO's illegal, by the UN Charter, dismemberment of Yugoslavia.

Posted by: Doesitreallymatter | Jun 19 2022 17:44 utc | 96

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 9 what will prevent NATO from carrying out this insane escalation ?
voice of the governed people?

Posted by: ianMoone | Jun 19 2022 14:17 utc | 19 Our "sovereign" and her govt are only there to govern us,
NOT rules us. what do we do now ?
<=I would suggest the problem needs adequate definition. what exactly is the problem including each element?
No republic "can or will" consider those it governs.. The design of republic favors Oligarchs@top to share
in the benefits and at the same time the Republican
form of government denies the governed masses
participation in the affairs of the state.
Organizational structure needs to be considered in the
problem statement?
The functional nature of the problem is that private enterprise and government agencies collectively, interactively coordinate presentation/suppression of the media contents viewed by media audiences.

1. Seems to me some kind of solution needs to be developed
to deny misleading first impressions from becoming
beliefs in the minds of belief based persons?
2 finding ways to get content that refutes, denies or
challenges false or misleading statements or narratives
into MSM media space.. needs a solution.
3. anti backfire technology needs to be invented
< belief is stronger than evidence; contrary to belief
strengthens prior belief)
4a. Differences between types of audiences needs to be
considered.
evidence contrary to a belief based person's prior
belief strengthens the believer's prior belief..
b. Evidence based information users do not permanently
establish beliefs, instead a working hypothesis, is
updated to accord newly discovered, or new understanding
discovered validated factual information.
Discovering how to overcome the backfire effect in believer based persons, can effectively turn the tables on using media to control human behavior and understanding.

Research into how to overcome backfire effect is needed.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 19 2022 13:41 utc | 9 what will prevent escalation ?
sorry the search engines have censored the correct answer to your question.. media policy does not allow
audiences to be exposed to escalation prevention content;

In other words, my answer is, if the people only knew.


Posted by: snake | Jun 19 2022 17:47 utc | 97

Zelensky visited the Southern frontline Mykolaiv (Nikolaev)

Mykolaivka is a different city close to the village of Shirokaya Dacha in Dnepropetrovsk Region. Could there be a confusion about the targeted strike?

President Zelensky's hometown, an economic hub, is under threat

Kryvyi Rih is located in a strategic position between Southern and Eastern Ukraine, the city prides itself on having become one of the country's main economic backbones: a large part of its mining and steel activities have been redirected to the war effort.

The Saker .. double Kalibre strike on Shirokaya Dacha.

https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-💥-theme-kalibr-kaboom/

Don't do stupid things ...

Posted by: Oui | Jun 19 2022 17:48 utc | 98

https://twitter.com/51st__State/status/1538246067262832643?s=20&t=JCM82os4LeuccjUe_Xxssg

Posted by: Andrew B (40)

After seeing that,- New Years eve fireworks will never be the same, djeeez!

Posted by: Cato | Jun 19 2022 17:50 utc | 99

... Or, the most likely, that the majority of underground storage and other facilities were built during the Soviet era.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 19 2022 17:12 utc | 88

The vast majority of RF targeting / clobbering does not mention underground bunkers and yet they’re still hitting huge quantities of materiel, thus RF must have good intel collection across the board, not just historical/deep storage sites.

RF knowledge of Soviet era bunkers was pointed out back when RF kinzhalled a deep bunker for the first time. Those Soviet era sites are known to RF but, equally obviously, UA is now painfully aware of that fact.

It is also reasonable to suppose that, even when targeting a known storage site, RF will most likely have other supporting intelligence to justify the strike. So, even in those cases, the fact of them being known bunker/storage sites is unlikely to be the whole story.

They’re getting live intel from somewhere.

I stand by my conjecture that a side deal with the US DoD to receive weapon shipment targeting info in exchange for the quiet return of high ranking Yankee POWs is entirely plausible. It’s actually the most logical trade I could think of when considering what the DoD had to offer RF for POWs.

But, hey, if you think they’re above that sort of thing, that’s your business =)

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 19 2022 17:51 utc | 100

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