@susan mullen #100:

Eva Bartlett writes about 3 weeks she spent in Donetsk in 2019. […]

She’s back in Donetsk. Yesterday (her birthday) she posted two short videos to her YouTube channel:
Ukrainian bombing of civilian areas of Donetsk June 13 killed 5 & caused massive fires
What I heard during 2 hours of Ukraine’s bombing all over Donetsk yesterday

Posted by: S | Jun 15 2022 19:38 utc | 103

Putin will on Friday talk about it all and “highly likely” will transition SMO to a proper State of War.
Probably that will give him enough of a legal basis in Russia and within its allies to kinetically confront NATO and its weapons and intelligence nodes, as it seems as an unavoidable necessity.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 15 2022 19:42 utc | 103
This could explain why the ‘holding back’ near Donetsk. He kept within the SMO parameters but the fierce resistance from the well dug in Ukrainian forces along with substantial, sustained help from outside Ukraine demand a higher level of kinetic force. This must be authorized by the Duma.
It doesn’t necessarily escalate things viz NATO since they are still operating within the Donbass republics who have declared independence and whom Russia is pledge to protect and defend. But it will change the dynamic considerably – assuming this report is more or less correct.
Just in time to push the US stock market into definite Bear mode…

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 15 2022 19:52 utc | 105

@whirlX | Jun 15 2022 19:42 utc | 103

“There are more than 200.000 Ukrainian casualties (dead and injured) so far, which is terrible.
Russia will soon, probably by the end of the month, mobilise extra 200.000-250.000 troops to finish Ukraine and possibly beyond asap. Probably, Byelorussian forces will join in on the north and in the west of Ukraine.
And all that because Taiwan-China show is to start soon, as well.”

Just listened to that. Earthshaking if true. Given the current weak US economic position perhaps China believes “better now than later”. Such a move would truly bury the current world order.
I have thought for some time that Russia would need to mobilize and send in additional forces – not only to take additional territory but to effectively hold and cleanse and administer what they have already.
The US determination to continue sending arms (another 1b today) and noise about continuing to cause trouble may have tipped the balance for Russia – they need a decisive military victory and capitulation to be able to boot out the US and friends. Europe will wither quickly if they were to shut off energy exports.
A move by China would provide some cover for Russia and put the US in an impossible quandary. Not sure what the strategy would be, but they (China) have been planning forever for it.
If this goes down there will be no going back. Crazy times.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 15 2022 20:15 utc | 107

@Anna Miller | Jun 15 2022 18:25 utc | 82
Zizek is a classical case and role model of a Lumpen Intellectual, post modernist fashionable pseudo marxist grabbing for attention.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 15 2022 20:22 utc | 109

Biden writes to the refiners…,
———————————————————–
Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression and bipartisan and global effort to counter it has disrupted the global supply of oil and driven up the global price.
—-
—-
I understand that many factors contributed to decisions to reduce refinery capacity, which occurred before I took office. But at a time of war, refinery profit margins well above normal being passed directly onto American families are not acceptable.
There is no question that Vladimir Putin is principally responsible for the intense financial pain the Americans people and their families are bearing. But amid a war that has raised gasoline prices more than #1.70 per gallon, historically high refinery profit margins are worsening that pain.
—-
—-
Vladimir Putin’s Price Hike and are driving up costs for consumers. I appreciate your immediate attention to this issue and your efforts to mitigate the economic challenges that Vladimir Putin’s actions have created for American families.
Signed Joseph R. Biden
——————————————————————–
* USA is at war 🤨
* It’s all Putin’s fault
(Italics are mine)

Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 20:25 utc | 111

I think that the pain threshold for Germany and the EU is much higher than anyone thinks it is.
Posted by: Ursula Zandt | Jun 15 2022 14:51 utc | 25
I think many migrated to Germany and the EU in search of a better life, and will not be amused.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 15 2022 20:26 utc | 113

@111 – Alina Lipp is a brave woman.
I am reminded somehow of Brechts song – “Der anachronistische Zug oder Freiheit und Democracy“ from 1947.
https://youtu.be/QV_ZRB3lU9k
I used to think it went too far; not anymore.

Posted by: Moaobserver | Jun 15 2022 20:35 utc | 115

canuck dumbf@ckery for you –
“First off, the man in this article is not a mercenary. He is a volunteer. Learn the difference.”
see article at cbc – titled –
‘No regrets’: A Canadian volunteer wounded in Ukraine is coming home

Posted by: james | Jun 15 2022 20:39 utc | 117

@103
re: rumor of RF mobilization
Somewhat skeptical of that rumor for now, and more skeptical of the conclusions he draws – i.e. big step up in frontline forces deployed in UA. More in line with RF style, it would probably be prudent to train new guys, or refresh-train mobilized reserves, for additional forces to have in the event of further escalation. Also to balance NATO buildups, and to have available for a show of force / deterrence, similar to what happened most of 2021. I don’t think China has anything to do with it.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 15 2022 20:40 utc | 119

@106 103
I do not believe in a Chinese attack on Taiwan unless the DPP declares independence. That would trigger the invasion instantly. Else, there is no point for the Chinese. 15-20% of the Taiwanese workforce works and permanently lives in the PRC, cross strait trade reached new highs. For what invading? They’ll get Taiwan anyway, and do not bother another decade or two or three. You guys, the MC guy as well, have no clue how Chinese think.
As to the mobilization, I do not believe it will happen, unless massive pressure arises in the Russian civil society. Even then, first the rejection of nearly all applying to volunteer would be lifted, allowing for some additional 100 thousand or more reservists joining the SMO. Roshin et alii complain all the time that this potential for a larger war, and additional efforts of the military industries, are not considered.
Russian mobilization has been predicted by Western analysts several times since start of the SMO, and never came true. Let us see. My prediction is: no mobilization (ok could be wrong), and certainly no Chinese operation against Taiwan.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 15 2022 20:51 utc | 121

Posted by: mundanomaniac | Jun 15 2022 16:11 utc | 52
Could someone provide an English translation of mundanomaniac’s blog post? What is it saying about Aries males vs. Aries females in simple terms? Genuinely curious.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 20:53 utc | 123

@ Paul Greenwood | Jun 15 2022 16:19 utc | 54

What I don‘t follow is that Siemens supplies an SGT-A35 aerodrive compressor say to Gazprom. The firm RVG in UK Services all types of SGT-A35….
@ James, bevin, Karlof1
Siemens Shitshow and the future of German industry
As I explained yesterday, to repair such a big thing [not just a fan] isn’t anyone’s job.
It’s a whole family of turbines, coupling and engineering. A worldwide supply chain with specific operations to be only available in Canada is possible. On the other hand, some “genius” playing the sanctions isn’t impossible….
And the repairs need to be certified and insured. A whole process through the global market.

The fact is Russia knows.
And Russia plays the long run.

Delivery of gas is now reduced to 40% [167 to 100 to 67 million cubic meters …] and refurbishment of gas storage in Germany isn’t possible.
Are solar panels and windmills relevant for steel and chemicals industries? To heat homes?
And you know what? 40% of German electricity is provided by gas turbine….
Russia is slowly grinding Ukronazis.
Russia will slowly grind EU too.

The SGT-A35 portfolio includes 2 variants of gas generators and 3 variants of free power turbines, allowing multiple combinations with power output ranging between 32 and 38 MW in mechanical drive, and different drive-shaft speed. Each variant is available with or without Dry Low Emissions (DLE) combustion and can be configured for electrical generation or mechanical drive, onshore or offshore. Such a diverse portfolio ensures that the gas turbine can be ideally matched to your requirements of each application.
https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/offerings/power-generation/gas-turbines/sgt-a30-a35-rb.html

Posted by: La Bastille | Jun 15 2022 21:01 utc | 125

The US market system uses prices to avoid shortages or surplus. Unless there is hoarding somewhere in the system, it makes no sense to complain of high prices.
What is happening is shortages. There is a shortage of oil/gasoline in the world, including in the US which exports freely into that world shortage.
There is only one fix for the price problem — more supply. Get Iran, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia to supply enough more oil to offset the loss of Russian oil.
The US refuses to do that. It wants to impose economic pressure on all of the world’s oil at the same time, to force its way in politics everywhere at once.
Either wage an economic war, or don’t. But don’t bungle it. Don’t fail even to understand the nature of it. Biden’s team are fools.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Jun 15 2022 21:03 utc | 127

Either wage an economic war, or don’t. But don’t bungle it. Don’t fail even to understand the nature of it. Biden’s team are fools.
Posted by: Mark Thomason | Jun 15 2022 21:03 utc | 125
Unless the current intention is engineered collapse under color of war….

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 15 2022 21:11 utc | 129

Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 21:08 utc | 126
Are you sayin’ “we” shouldn’t be spreading our “freedom” and “democracy” in places like Ukraine? Dem Nazis lied to “us”? 😉

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 21:12 utc | 131

@130 me
oops that was Mark Thomason | Jun 15 2022 21:03 utc | 125 not Anna Miller | Jun 15 2022 18:25 utc | 82
Stupid copy paste

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 15 2022 21:15 utc | 133

Are you sayin’ “we” shouldn’t be spreading our “freedom” and “democracy” in places like Ukraine? Dem Nazis lied to “us”? 😉
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 21:12 utc | 129
———————–
Which was the country that Uncle Shmuel spread “freedom” and “democracy”? Is there any “freedom” and “democracy” even in the Empire of Lies, by the way?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 21:19 utc | 135

thepessimist@119… not like the Russians can ask Ukrainians to donate blood for the hundreds of injured Ukrainian soldiers in their care.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 15 2022 21:24 utc | 137

Which was the country that Uncle Shmuel spread “freedom” and “democracy”? Is there any “freedom” and “democracy” even in the Empire of Lies, by the way?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 21:19 utc | 133
I think there may be a language/sarcasm barrier here. Did you read my reply as agreeing or disagreeing with your opinion on Uncle Scam’s freedumb and dimocrazy?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 21:28 utc | 139

Which was the country that Uncle Shmuel spread “freedom” and “democracy”? Is there any “freedom” and “democracy” even in the Empire of Lies, by the way?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 21:19 utc | 133

A good many of us still have the freedom to vote with our time, dollars and feet (if necessary).
The aggregate of those votes is far more important to the shape of society than the political votes that we are offered every couple of years.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jun 15 2022 21:35 utc | 141

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 21:28 utc | 137
——————
Well, it is Biden’s war in the Ukraine. He himself writes letters to at least seven refiners, stating “in the time of war”…and it is all Putin’s fault, while it was Biden who started the sanctions, which eventually struck back with a vengeance!
Anyway, it is now a war against the USD. “The Fed has done something it hasn’t done in 28 years. US interest rates rose sharply.” It’s happening

Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 21:42 utc | 143

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/fed-raises-interest-rates-75-basis-points-ramps-up-inflation-battle

Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 21:48 utc | 145

Continuing the article above:

It’s important to remember that President Zelensky was elected earlier this year with the biggest margin in Ukraine’s history: 72% of the vote. He campaigned on a pro-peace platform, signaling that he would end the ultra-nationalistic and Russophobic policies pushed by Ukraine’s then-oligarch-president, and would work to end the civil war in Eastern Ukraine. And people voted for him in huge numbers. Now, with nearly three-quarters of Ukrainian voters behind him, Zelensky has a huge popular mandate to do just that.
It’s clear to anyone who follows Ukrainian politics that the pro-war demands of these nationalist groups represents the interests of a small minority. The vast majority of Ukrainians want peace — which is why Zelensky won with such staggering numbers. But it just so happens that this desire to end the war runs counter to American strategic interests.
American foreign policy has long sought to use Ukraine as a strategic destabilization point against Russia (and before that, the Soviet Union). Indeed, America’s meddling in Ukraine — and its support for the country’s nationalist and fascist movements — is what helped trigger this civil war in the first place. And I can’t think of a single American foreign policy institution or interest group that would be in favor of actually ending the war. The entire foreign policy machinery of our country is geared for conflict there. And it doesn’t hurt that it’s good for business.
Not surprisingly, our domestic news coverage of Zelensky’s mild attempts to kickstart the peace process has reflected this cynical imperial bias. From the Wall Street Journal to the Los Angeles Times — reporters have ignored Zelensky’s popular pro-peace mandate and have promoted the pro-war demands of a small set of far-right organizations as if they’re representative of the larger Ukrainian public, all while whitewashing the fascist and antisemitic politics of these groups. As Lev Golinkin pointed out: Despite Zelensky’s extreme popularity, reporters have been chronically — and comically — unable to find a single supporter to talk to who wants peace. Not a single one. H’mmm…wonder why.
This kind of biased reporting is an example of how our media’s foreign coverage almost always hews to official government policy. And in this case, the interests of the United States and the interests of Ukraine’s powerful nationalist and fascist movements are in total alignment. Of course, America’s weaponized Ukrainian-American community is right there with them.

The one thing I’m not completely credulous about is just how broad the nazis’ support was or is in Ukraine and how difficult it’ll really be to de-nazify the place now that Russia has given the nationalists and nazis the ear of “regular” Ukrainians w/ the help of propagandistic western media.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 21:52 utc | 147

Well, he’s right that truth is a matter of opinion. Truth depends on context to have any meaning and context is subjective.
Actually
“Truth Flows from The Barrel of A Gun”

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Jun 15 2022 22:03 utc | 149

In addition, the United States is trying to draw Vietnam into the anti-Chinese coalition, taking advantage of the fact that it has territorial disputes with China.”
Posted by: S | Jun 15 2022 18:51 utc | 94
I have no idea as to what substance is the flavor of the day at foggy bottom. Since USSA Yankee la la land has not paid one banana to Hanoi in a Republican President Nixon/Kissinger’s promised war reparations. Until such debts are repaid in real cash and not the usual worthless USSA air dollars.
Getting Hanoi , on board the usual stab in the back Foggy Bottom Plan B. Will be a very big ask. Or next to improbable/impossible, one could say………….

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 15 2022 22:13 utc | 151

Posted by: ostro | Jun 15 2022 22:14 utc | 150
At this point I’m not sure what to tell you other than it’s apparent you don’t realize we agree, spruced up a little bit with emojis as we talk past each other.
Of course the US was *also* planning to force EU to commit economic suicide. It’s all there in writing. Follow the pipelines…

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 22:22 utc | 153

This also solves Russia’s security issues making the mutual security proposal from last year obsolete.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 15 2022 22:37 utc | 152
Yup, that’s what it’s looking like. But it might be a little like strangling a bull with your bare hands. The bull might thrash about dangerously….
I had a nasty thought this morning reading S’s geopolitical summations which were nothing entirely new but all well put together and so impactful. The war is already on. At some point maybe: Chinese troops on American soil to keep order.
It seems extremely improbable but along with that thought came a little echo: ‘they’ve been invading and destroying countries for years now partly because they think it can never happen to them; maybe it’s time to teach them a lesson…..’
Of course will never happen but…

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 15 2022 22:44 utc | 155

While I have a little tiny bit of circumstantial corroboration that does make it seem something rather big is coming up I’m not sure the timing matches.
So I am hesitant.
If it is a match rather than coincidence or error then we’re going to see movements of people away from some or all of Russia’s European borders (maybe including Georgia). Yes it could be as big as an outright declaration of war against NATO but it might also be more limited measures sufficient to produce the same effects such as the establishment of a “NATO-demilitarized” zone around Russia (and maybe China too).
Imagine a constant electronic warfare “blanket” rendering all modern military and civilian electronics non-functioning or highly unreliable. It will drive most people and activity away. Exactly how deep this “caveman zone” (I named it!) is will vary depending on circumstance. My conservative guess is that it could be about 200-300 kilometers deep except in the high north where it might be two or three times larger if possible. (Speculation on top of speculation).
A one-sided forced demilitarization.
Any prediction is a long shot and I’m climbing far out on a limb; so why not make it interesting? 😀
No matter what and when I’m not looking forward to it on a personal level but I’ll support Russia and China 100%; personally I can see it no other way than that at this point they are fully justified essentially no matter what they do (which is scary in and of itself: a carte blanche).
“The west” through their continued unabated idiocy gave them that carte blanche 🙁
TGIF?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 15 2022 22:46 utc | 157

Posted by: Alpi | Jun 15 2022 17:12 utc | 69
“I think it would be a waste of resources and time trying to hunt these guys down as a military objective.”
Says the guy who prefers to leave Nazis alive. Ask yourself why.
“Oh, gee, it’s so hard to get rid of Nazis. Let’s leave the poor babies alone so it doesn’t cost us any money.”
Jesus, where do they find these people? Under what wet scummy rock?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 15 2022 22:55 utc | 159

This one got lost so posting again. Forgive if later is duplicated:
Trucker Strike In South Korea Sparks Economic Turmoil, Risks Global Spillover
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, JUN 13, 2022 – 05:00 PM
The epicenter of the next global supply chain snarl could be in South Korea as a nationwide trucker strike broadens and is hindering domestic economic activity, which may spill over to the rest of the world.
Bloomberg reports that the Cargo Truckers Solidarity Union entered its seventh day of strikes on Monday, causing $1.6 billion in disruptions for auto, petrochemical, steel, and other top industries.
South Korean steel-making company POSCO, the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker, has already limited production at some factories while the impacts are spreading across the economy.
The strike has impacted companies in Seoul the hardest. Shares of Posco slumped nearly 4%, Hyundai Motor Co. fell 5%, Petrochemical company Hanwha Corp. 4%, and LG Chem Ltd. slipped 3.6%.
Reuters said about a third of the union members (7,000) were striking Monday, and there is no end in sight.
Deliveries of automobiles, fuels, steel, and materials for semiconductor chips have been suspended or delayed. Continued disruption of domestic shipments and factories limiting production could have ripple effects across the globe, especially since South Korea is the top exporter of memory chips.
The strike’s impact could be more severe this week as the fourth round of negotiations between the striking truckers and government officials failed on Sunday. The union demands minimum pay guarantees and is furious about soaring diesel prices.
“We are thinking of a complete blockade,” union leader Kim Jae-gwang told Reuters, indicating they intend to block coal shipments to a power plant in Gunsan, North Jeolla Province. Reuters noted impacts to power would be limited but shows an intensification of truckers’ actions.
Signs of global spillovers are materializing as container volume transported to and from the nation’s 12 ports plunged 68% on Monday compared with the average for May, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. At Port of Busan, the largest port in the country and the world’s seventh busiest port, inbound and outbound volumes were halved versus their average amount. ”
Just more bad luck for the West or one of our major allies part of a manufactured collapse scenario now unfolding.
Last week I purchased an old 1983 Jeep. No computer. Almost indestructible. Of course if things really go pear-shaped, won’t be no gas. But in WW II most of Northern Europe converted their motorcycles, cars and trucks to run on wood-fire exhaust gases instead of gasoline. I plan to look up those designs…..

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 15 2022 23:01 utc | 161

@ Don Bacon | Jun 15 2022 22:56 utc | 158
from your link…
“Gen. Mark Milley said, ‘This is an existential threat. They’re fighting for the very life of their country.’
long live ukraine! keep the nato armaments coming and long live nazism in ukraine under usa-nato guidance too… never surrender… murder the last ukrainian to get at russia.. go usa-nato! never make a peace agreement.. be non agreement capable! f@ck minsk 2 and etc. etc… it is what losers do… this post is a byproduct of reading shit from a usa news outlet.. my apologies.. i should never have done it! i’m in a foul mood today..

Posted by: james | Jun 15 2022 23:06 utc | 163

…from Stripes
The U.S. State Department says it is looking into reports that Russian or Russian-backed separatist forces in Ukraine have captured at least two American citizens.
In a statement to reporters Wednesday, the department said it was aware of the unconfirmed reports.
“We are closely monitoring the situation and are in contact with Ukrainian authorities,” the department said. It declined further comment.
U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger tweeted that the Americans “have enlisted in the Ukrainian army, and thus are afforded legal combatant protections” given prisoners of war under the Geneva Convention. It was unclear whether Kinzinger, an Illinois Republican, had any further information about the men.
He was commenting on a tweet sent earlier Wednesday by Task Force Baguette, a group of former U.S. and French servicemen, saying that two Americans fighting with them were captured a week ago. The group said Ukrainian intelligence confirmed the information. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 15 2022 23:25 utc | 165

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 15 2022 19:42 utc | 103
“There are more than 200.000 Ukrainian casualties (dead and injured) so far, which is terrible.”
I wouldn’t be surprised, but I suspect that figure is a tad too high. 100,000 to 150,000 would be more likely.
“Russia will soon, probably by the end of the month, mobilise extra 200.000-250.000 troops to finish Ukraine and possibly beyond asap. Probably, Byelorussian forces will join in on the north and in the west of Ukraine.”
I would not be surprised at both of these, either. I don’t know if it will be by end of month, though. I suspect Putin will wait until the Donbass Ukrainian force is finished off. The Russians can do that with what they have. Once that is done, they can probably take Nikolaev and Kharkiv as well with what they have. Especially if they are actually rotating units in from Russia regularly, so their current forces are not overly taxed.
Then with what they have, or perhaps a little more, they can surround Odessa and push through to Transnistria.
At that point, an operational pause would be likely. There might also be pauses after the Donbass forces is reduced, and after Nikolaev and Kharkiv are taken.
Then Putin will ask the General Staff what is needed to continue the operation if that is what Putin wants to do, to take Kiev, Lviv and the rest of Ukraine until Ukraine surrenders (if it hasn’t already done so, which I suspect it won’t.)
“And all that because Taiwan-China show is to start soon, as well.”
It will be several months, most likely, for China to prepare its forces for Taiwan even if it has already started. So Russia has the time. A Taiwan war probably won’t start before fall, if then.
“Putin will on Friday talk about it all and “highly likely” will transition SMO to a proper State of War. Probably that will give him enough of a legal basis in Russia and within its allies to kinetically confront NATO and its weapons and intelligence nodes, as it seems as an unavoidable necessity.”
I don’t think Russia intends to take on NATO until Ukraine is finished off. It simply doesn’t have to. Putin might declare war but I suspect he can get permission from the Duma to extend the “SMO” to cover all of Ukraine without doing so – unless there is some legal definition of war under the Russian Constitution which will require him to do so based on the number of forces being committed. Does anyone know whether that is the case?
It’s clear that up to now Russia has only committed the minimum number of forces which the General Staff calculated as being sufficient to destroy the Ukrainian military. Russia can finish the destruction of the Ukrainian military, even across the rest of Ukraine, with that number of troops, once the bulk has been destroyed in the east.
I’ve said repeatedly that Russia does not need to “control territory” even across the entirety of Ukraine. The Ukrainian population is not going to “rise up” and create an “Afghanistan” against Russia. Russia need only destroy the Ukraine military and the country will be pacified without a conventional “occupation” of the sort of the US does. Any local resistance can be handled with the forces Russia commits to destroy the Ukrainian military. This is because the Ukrainian military was initially quite large. So any force which could destroy it will be sufficient force to handled any local resistance. Thus, “occupation” of the conventional sort is not necessary. Instead, Russia will do what it is doing in the East – provide assistance to local regions to get them back into operation as soon as possible. Even local populations in the central and western parts of Ukraine will go along with that, in the absence of any military capability to resist effectively in an organized manner.
Those in the central and western parts who do offer resistance will be identified, arrested and either deported or imprisoned. Whatever force Russia commits will be sufficient to do that, especially since Russian intelligence such as SVR and FSB will be deployed once Ukraine surrenders. As I’ve said, Russia doesn’t need to get rid of every neo-Nazi goon or fanatical Ukrainian nationalist – they just need to keep them out of the government, once that government is reformed, and prevent any organized movement being functional. Russia under the Soviet Union has most of a century’s experience doing just that in several countries.
I’ve had a suspicion that the notion that Russia “could not take Kiev” with the forces it had is misinterpreted. The size of city is not significant. What is significant is how many opposing forces and of what capability are there. If Russia had attempted to take Kiev with the 30-40,000 forces it had there, it probably would have failed depending on how many Ukrainian forces were in the vicinity. My guess is there was at least 50,000 Ukrainian forces there, so it would not have worked. But had there been fewer Ukrainian forces, it could have been done. It might have been costly but it could have been done. 30-40,000 troops with armor and artillery supported by air power is a formidable force. A civilian population is not going to resist it effectively, even if there are three million people there. The vast majority are not combat capable. So the population figure means nothing.
So in my view Russia could even take Kiev with the total forces it has so far committed to the battle, without reinforcing them. But of course it would be better if they did reinforce them with another 100,000 or so. Again, it will depend on whether the Ukrainian military remains functional in that region after the other regions have been destroyed. If it doesn’t, if Ukraine has surrendered by then, then in effect Kiev will not have to be “taken”, just entered.
Unfortunately, Putin and his team could turn out to be morons like many people and not do any of that. In which case, Russia will win the Donbass and lose the war.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 15 2022 23:28 utc | 167

It seems extremely improbable but along with that thought came a little echo: ‘they’ve been invading and destroying countries for years now partly because they think it can never happen to them; maybe it’s time to teach them a lesson…..’
Of course will never happen but…
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 15 2022 22:44 utc | 153
A lesson cannot be taught it may only be learned, usually through some kind of hardship or restriction. War and invasions if necessary, are not for teaching they are a last resort for survival. Still lessons can be learned from war. its just that they mostly aren’t.
As is obvious almost no one but Russia and other communist countries learned the “lesson” of WW2.
China has been schooling the west for decades, as far as i can see they don’t need and clearly don’t want an aggressive war since they are accomplishing their goals without it. China used western capitalists to grow its own economy and simultaneously completely fooled the west. That was when they won, it’s a long time ago but China is very patient and the rewards of that win are continuing to emerge.
Too much emphasis on the military campaign, weapons minutiae, BDS (biggest dick syndrome) as happens here on MOA a lot too , blinds people to the bigger picture. Russia and China and more importantly, what they stand for, have already won. As in Russia’s situation in Ukraine, neither will use any more than the barest necessary military means. Unless they have to.
This seems to be completely incomprehensible approach to most westerners. Who just want action. and maximum violence.

Posted by: K | Jun 15 2022 23:35 utc | 169

@ 166
She clearly has the capabilities to replace Lavrov when he retires.
. . .Soon, I hope. The complete dressing-down of US presstitutes & politicians has been lacking.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 15 2022 23:41 utc | 171

Putin met today with the CEO of one of his brainchilds, Rusnano CEO Sergey Kulikov. Here’s the opening of Mr. Kulikov’s report:

You, as the founder and ideologist of this programme, know more than anyone else that this is not just a state corporation, not just a joint-stock company and not even just a development institution – it is a symbol of investing in science, in technology, in the future.
I will try to focus my report on three aspects: technology, science and education and money.
Indeed, 150 enterprises have been created, and nanotechnology has taken root in six technology clusters. These are electronics, these are the materials themselves, this is optronics, this is the disposal of even solid household waste. In terms of science, 53 billion rubles were spent on R&D. Fifteen hundred students graduate annually from nanotechnology departments in 28 universities in countries.
As you and I said in December, we have not yet launched a programme, but an initiative on mathematical modelling of materials, and it has already begun to produce its results in prototypes. We did not just start, for example, in the MISiS laboratory, we increased the properties of thermoelectrics by 30–40 percent through mathematical modeling, and today we have already launched the next cycle this year – with major players who are now beginning to understand that everything begins with materials.
Finances: we are paying off debts, last year we gave away the first 20 billion. Those with whom we agree on a discount, we go, of course, to meet, but interest accumulates. I have prepared a few proposals, and I will report to you.
The good news is that given that 233 billion rubles were invested in Rusnano over the years you have outlined, 155 billion rubles were received from portfolio exits and assets until 2020. We added another 50 billion rubles to this piggy bank last year, so we have overcome the psychological barrier of 200 billion rubles, equaling investment costs, which, as we think, we confirm the profitability of our activities in general.
Returning to the fact that this is still a symbol, and not just a joint-stock company, I would like to emphasize that over these ten years it has been proved that nanotechnology is necessary, that it is achievable and that a competitive product cannot be obtained today without immersion in the morphology of the material. And it’s probably really worth investing in – it’s time to invest in it now.

If Putin weren’t President of Russia, he’d be a very formidable businessman.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 15 2022 23:45 utc | 173

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 15 2022 23:26 utc | 164
“Not sure how that would be done without completely removing the two- or four-stroke gasoline (or diesel) motors and replacing them with something else entirely. Let us know what you find. Where would the fire be?”
Well, I did a search on ‘run your car on wood fired gases’ and found out that it’s called wood gas.
And I also found out that Mother Earth News is still alive!
https://www.motherearthnews.com/sustainable-living/green-transportation/wood-gas-generator/
This article includes a pdf how to file.
https://www.amusingplanet.com/2022/02/wood-gas-vehicles-cars-that-run-on.html
This article informs us that:
“In 1920, French engineer Georges Imbert built a mobile wood gas generator that fed on wood chips and produced a clean, dry gas which could be fed directly into a vehicle’s combustion engine with little modification to the engine itself. At the end of the 1930s, about 9,000 vehicles were in use in Europe equipped with Imbert generators. That number would rise exponentially during World War 2, when gasoline became short in supply. In Germany alone, around 500,000 coal gas vehicles were in operation by the end of the war. These included private cars, trucks, buses, tractors, motorcycles and even ships, trains and tanks were equipped with a wood gasification unit. A network of some 3,000 wood stations were set up, where where drivers could stock up on firewood.”
Looks like Germany better get cracking before this winter sets in!! 500,000…. that’s quite a lot….
As to how easy/hard it is:
“Wood gasification is a proces whereby organic material is converted into a combustible gas under the influence of heat – the process reaches a temperature of 1,400 °C (2,550 °F). The first use of wood gasification dates back to 1870s, when it was used as a forerunner of natural gas for street lighting and cooking.
In the 1920s, German engineer Georges Imbert developed a wood gas generator for mobile use. The gases were cleaned and dried and then fed into the vehicle’s combustion engine, which barely needs to be adapted. The Imbert generator was mass produced from 1931 on. At the end of the 1930s, about 9,000 wood gas vehicles were in use, almost exclusively in Europe.”
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/01/wood-gas-cars.html
It’s been decades since I read about this. Surprised I hadn’t completely misremembered. My initial comment was mainly just a joke, but I did get a Jeep mainly because I need 4WD where my new little house in coffee country is being built but also because am tired of old cars with computer/electrical problems and decided to get something tougher and older than typical – which the old Jeeps are – and without any of the complications that computers bring to the table. The new cars are great, but the 90’s models when the whole thing started have rudimentary computers which can get confused in ways which are extremely difficult to diagnose especially in small town rural Mexico where I now live – not for any political reasons, just culture (not America or Canada thank you!) and value for money in that retirement income goes A LOT further here..

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 16 2022 0:01 utc | 175

Don Bacon @169–
Here’s Maria on fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian and her appraisal of George W Bush and clan:
“I draw your attention to the fact that this is not some kind of “find” of mine, but a direct speech by former US President George W. Bush, who said: “Ukraine’s mission is to kill as many Russians as possible.” I am not saying that he is a man of deep knowledge (I do not want to talk about this topic now), but he does not just represent what a deep state is – the deep state of the United States, he is part of this deep state, the political elite. Their clan ruled the state for many years: father and son were presidents for a long time. They have the strongest influence – they had and have – in Republican circles. They are closely connected with the special services and with the military-industrial complex and, of course, still control the energy sector. Classic story. George W. Bush simply voiced what many still “camouflage” into more or less streamlined phrases. He bluntly said, “Ukraine’s mission is to kill as many Russians as possible.” That’s it. This needs to be talked about. Apparently, Jens Stoltenberg developed this idea and said how much it would cost, that it had some price. The price is the lives of people who live and who now and many years before the West simply pitted against each other. If you ask me (this was mentioned in one way or another in your question) about the situation around NATO, it seems to me that it was long overdue to think about whether to continue to provide political and material support for the actions of Ukrainian nationalists or to start looking for joint ways to prevent escalation, leading to an unnecessary confrontation. That’s the topic they should be thinking about. I don’t want to give them advice. But it’s so obvious on the surface that I couldn’t help but say.” [My Emphasis]
I wonder what Mr. Bobolinsky would say about Maria’s appraisal since she just delivered Truth that few within the Outlaw US Empire are aware of.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 16 2022 0:08 utc | 177

Posted by: mundanomaniac | Jun 15 2022 16:11 utc | 52
Why is this bullshit posted here.
These opportunistic driveby promotion of websites…… grrrrrrr.
This person does not engage. Does not contribute. Their purpose is self promotion.
Grrrrrrrrr.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 16 2022 0:29 utc | 179

What I don‘t follow is that Siemens supplies an SGT-A35 aerodrive compressor say to Gazprom. The firm RVG in UK Services all types of SGT-A35….
@ James, bevin, Karlof1
Delivery of gas is now reduced to 40% …
Posted by: La Bastille | Jun 15 2022 21:01 utc | 124
own goal solved
DE | Gazprom to further cut gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream

Gazprom [JPSC] initially blamed the delayed return of equipment that had been sent to German company Siemens for repairs. On Tuesday, Siemens Energy said the delay in returning the equipment to Gazprom was because they were taken to Canada for a scheduled overhaul and have not been returned due to Ottawa’s sanctions

The backstory is Habeck blowing RUSSIA VILLAINY smoke over the announcement yesterday, DW | Germany to protect [“]Gazprom Germania[“] from insolvency with up to €10 billion loan.
Let’s recap end of March: after Putin announced RUB/gas, German regulators raided, then seized Gazprom Germania GHb, the M&T subsidiary besides Gazprombank owned by Gazprom JPSC, the holding company. Gazprom Germania literally left storage tanks almost empty, which was nice, because both DE and PL said they didn’t want no steekin Russian gas. In May, RF banned Russian gas exports to EuRoPol Gaz, DE-confiscated Gazprom Germania, and 29 [twenty-nine] Gazprom Germania subsidiaries in Switzerland, Hungary, Britain, France, Bulgaria, the Benelux [BE, NL, LU] region, the United States, Switzerland, Romania, and Singapore. In April, Habeck went on a Gulf tour to scare up LNG contracts, and REUTERS reported Habeck’s business plan, new gas storage law – how will it work?, 22 Apr 2022. So all that futility goes aways to ‘splainin why gov-sponsored Gazprom Germania be broke but re-branded “Securing Energy for Europe GmbH“.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 16 2022 0:46 utc | 181

In Flagstaff some dude burning his TP in the woods started a huge one a few days ago. Unbelievable.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 16 2022 1:16 utc | 183

Posted by: S | Jun 15 2022 20:25 utc | 111
Re Alina Lipp.
I have one name for her, and for all independent (and captured corporate journalists),

”What is happening to me now can now happen to all independent journalists and bloggers”..
My precious. Were you paying attention to the targeting of Julian and Wikileaks?
that’s why I would like to propose you, dear colleagues, that we are going to start to work together more to support each other against censorship in the West.
Better late than never, I guess. But is the support for all independent journalists? Or only the select club you belong to at the moment.?
What if some independent journalist offers a contrarian [not US state department] view on Thailand, or Tibet, or Togo? Will they be supported or will they be disparaged?
There are some colleagues of mine, some independent international colleagues, we started already such project, and if this is interesting for you, you can write me, and we are going to work together.
Nice. And a starting point would be to study closely and really comprehend the forces and players behind the persecution of Julian. Study Julian and you will know what you will be confronting. Know your enemy.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 16 2022 1:30 utc | 185

re: RF mobilization rumor
Not sure where it originated from, but perhaps related to this, from one of the ‘regular’ war correspondents:
https://t.me/sashakots/33722
Per the above, and in line with what was mentioned above already by a previous commenter: Rosgvardia introduced an ultra-short-term contract option for soldiers who previously served. 3 weeks of refresher training and 3 months of service. Per the above, it was to accomodate veterans or reservists interested to serve in the current conflict, under the RF flag, but didn’t want to make the standard time commitment.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 16 2022 1:41 utc | 187

@ ptb | Jun 16 2022 1:41 utc | 185
thanks ptb… here is the translation of the telegram data…. it is interesting… not sure how relevant it is… june 15th date is mentioned..
“Attention volunteers.
Following numerous requests from veterans of special forces, the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Guard approved short-term contracts in 604 CSN Vityaz. Contract for 3 months.
All those wishing to sign a contract to participate in the SVO as part of the detachment will go through a selection committee with the signing of all relevant documents in the division. After the approval and signing of the documents, three weeks of military training, training and coordination at the Vityaz training center with a trip to the training grounds.
The first set starts June 15th. The contract will spell out all the laws and regulations of existing employees.”

Posted by: james | Jun 16 2022 1:52 utc | 189

To all those barflies liking what Maria Zakharova has to say I would posit she is the bad cop to Lavrov being the good cop
Make sense now? Russia knows how to do both diplomacy and PR at the same time

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 16 2022 2:29 utc | 191

Speaking of presstitutes, Here’s Judy Woofruff from the PUBLIC BROADCASTING SERVICE — hah — on June 14 throwing softballs at liar Blinken. Woodruff obviously (1) doesn’t know more than what the MSM univoice says and (2) is unwilling to take on the great liar Blinken. . . .was Woodruff given the questions in advance? It seem so, scripted.
QUESTION: Secretary Blinken, thank you very much for joining us. Let’s start with Ukraine. We know from what the Ukrainians themselves are saying, what the reporting is, that they are now being massively outgunned by the Russians. They say their weapons are not being replaced quickly enough or adequately; they don’t have close to the amount of weapons and ammunition they need. The tide has turned in Russia’s favor?
SECRETARY BLINKEN: No, I think, Judy, what we’re seeing is a very intense fight in the Donbas, in eastern and also in southern Ukraine. . . .
QUESTION: And right now, though, the Ukrainians say they are not getting what they need. What more can the U.S. do right now to help them?
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Judy, it’s literally happening as we speak.. . .
QUESTION: Well, what we’re hearing from experts, though, at the same time, is no matter how unfair or repugnant it may seem, that it is now appearing inevitable that Ukraine is going to have to make territorial concessions in the east. Is that what you see, that they are going to have to bow to Vladimir Putin and give him that territory that he says he wants?
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Judy, Ukraine’s future is up to the Ukrainians. . . .[sure]. . .here
I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist. . . .
Punch and Judy is a traditional puppet show featuring Mr. Punch and his wife Judy. The performance consists of a sequence of short scenes, each depicting each depicting an interaction between two characters, most typically Mr. Punch and one other character who usually falls victim to Punch’s slapstick.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 16 2022 2:40 utc | 193

My favorite Rickover quote:
“Optimism and stupidity are nearly synonymous.”
–Hyman G. Rickover, a superb engineer

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 16 2022 3:09 utc | 195

@ptb, james, RSH 185, 187, 188 re: Rosvguardia vet volunteer recruiting rumor
To me the lede is the key: “Following numerous requests from veterans of special forces, the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Guard …”
After 3 months of a grinding battle replacements become a pressing issue. Unit cohesion is a real thing but unit strength of existing units is necessary to avoid collapse of effectiveness and morale or the need for wholesale re-organization. Best to not attempt the latter on-the-fly.
This seems to me to be a response to gung-ho ex-Guard troops (veterans of Checnya, Georgia (etc?)) who want to do more than watch from the rear and work a civilian job. I expect that this is both:
1) generation of direct replacement troops for front line units that are weakened but still effective, and
2) gathering experienced front-line combat veterans to train new volunteers or conscripts.
I note the “trip to training grounds” at end might be hinting at more than just a train ticket to Vitnaz. It could be to ‘training grounds’ for DPR/LPR forces where the vets would be drill sergeants..Perhaps, but less likely, it could refer even to the SMO itself if it is viewed as the uncertain opening battle in the longer and yet undefined struggle against the wild and crazy (therefore unpredictable) West.
Anyhow, I feel pretty sure the Russian military is not accepting Guards and Spetznaz vets as volunteers to fill support roles behind the lines or away from the front, except as warranted by rank, specialty, age, condition or family status. The volunteer vets could have a definite utility of service as front line replacements, but if they are parents they can provide a valuable service by molding new [LPR/DPR] recruits into shape within cohesive new units.

Posted by: LeMoyne | Jun 16 2022 3:20 utc | 197

james | Jun 16 2022 1:32 utc | 184
Russia looks to be mobilizing its economy for the large change but I don’t see any signs of Russia needing to mobilize for war. Unless that is US is intending to try conventional war in Europe against Russia.
Western economies are now bleeding out so its just a matter of Russia keeping on keeping on until the west dies.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 16 2022 3:41 utc | 199