Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 12, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-85

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on June 12, 2022 at 11:52 UTC | Permalink

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Walrus has posted an excellent post over at SST that is sure to raise the roof there. Highly recommended.

https://turcopolier.com/is-ukraine-losing-by-walrus/

Posted by: morongobill | Jun 12 2022 12:05 utc | 1

Tipping point negotiating terms is nearing.

Here is what they may be. Based on precedent.

https://www.lauriemeadows.info/conflict_security/Treaties_of%20_Settlement-Ukraine.html

Posted by: Powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 12:10 utc | 2

Interesting thread

AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
🇺🇸 The strengthening of the ruble leads to financial losses of the West, — National Interest

The further strengthening of the ruble exchange rate leads to additional costs for the West when buying Russian energy resources, the American National Interest states
2:14 PM · Jun 12, 2022·Twitter Web App
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AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
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12m
Replying to
@AZmilitary1
The decision of the Head of the Russian State to accept payment for gas in the national currency led to a significant strengthening of the ruble, — National Interest notes
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AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
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The burden that has fallen on the shoulders of the West, forced to pay in rubles for gas, will become increasingly painful for the West.
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AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
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If the ruble continues to strengthen in the coming months, Western countries will have to bear additional costs to convert their currencies into rubles in order to pay for the import of irreplaceable energy resources," the National Interest emphasizes
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AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
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12m
Such a development of events will increase the demand for Russian currency in the world, and will also show the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia, the American National Interest concludes

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2022 12:29 utc | 3

Looks like the UAF have given up on the fight for Severodonetsk

AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
·
28m
✂️The last bridge connecting Severodonetsk with Lisichansk was destroyed. Thus, the Ukrainian militants blocked

AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
·
28m
The last bridge from Severodonetsk to Lisichansk is all.
However, it is still theoretically possible to climb back and forth. You can forget about the transfer of equipment to Severodonetsk.


From IntelSlava
🇷🇺🇺🇦❗Civilians began to leave Azot in Severodonetsk! - Ambassador of the LPR in Russia

“Civilians began to leave through the second checkpoint of the Azot chemical association. This checkpoint is not controlled by the militants. They are met and taken to a safe place by the soldiers of the allied forces. The remnants of the Ukrainian formations are concentrated and hold several buildings in the area of ​​the first checkpoint.

They still have several hundred civilians as hostages. As the ring around the militants narrows, civilians will be able to leave their shelters. Allied forces are preparing vehicles for evacuation."

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2022 12:35 utc | 4

Re: #1

It's truly depressing that SST "committee" is asking this kind of question at this late stage:

Is Ukraine Losing? By Walrus.

For potato sake, Walrus, yes, Ukraina is losing the war.

Posted by: Ricardo Ramirez | Jun 12 2022 13:07 utc | 5

Morongobil@1...jees, first time I visited there since the home crowd started blowing their lode over a long convoy of Russian equipment during the first few days of combat.
The Rah Rah was so over the top, devoid of reason, it reminded me of Lang's 'lets carpet bomb South Lebanon'.
Rising from their delusions, with
shit covered egg faces. Bout time.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 12 2022 13:09 utc | 6

The military summary channel mentioned something interesting yesterday. He said the residents of Mykolaiv are receiving very meager rations of bread and they have to use coupons to receive the bread. He said it is a very small ration.

He said there is a great deal of communication between Mykolaiv and Kherson and the residents of Mykolaiv see that the residents of Kherson are doing much better under Russian governance. Pensions are being paid, people are working and eating normal. Services are working. There is fuel.

He believes there is a gread deal of support for Russia in Mykolaiv and that the Russians may be now beginning to move in that direction. Phase two?

With the Ukraininas conscripting women between the ages of 18 and 60 I think that a great deal of anger would begin to become obvious in the poulation centers of the Ukraine.

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 12 2022 13:14 utc | 7

Any opinions on how this ends? There seems to be a push to “negotiate” from the West but I am doubtful that Russia will entertain any negotiations until all of Ukraine has either collapsed internally (the western part) or that it is safely integrated into Russia’s economic sphere (the East and South).

Russia gains nothing from negotiations today. Relations with the West are already dead and won’t recover. So why not continue until all of Ukraine has ceased to exist and real talks on mutual security can begin?

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:15 utc | 8

All the declaration of giving.
Weapons systems XYZ to the Ukrainian forces.
I seem to remember something about the munitions stocks within NATO wouldn't last a month of prolonged conflict.
I can't find the article written about two decades ago (Afghanistan/Iraq wars) but I'd imagine the stocks haven't been improved in the interim.
It's not the worst thing given the incredible destruction possible.
But with all the game changer guff.
Maybe NATO didn't plan for a prolonged conflict that the Russians have since waged.

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 12 2022 13:19 utc | 9

Lol. They ran out of make cannon fodder. Women and child soldiers next up.

Posted by: Goldhoarder | Jun 12 2022 13:19 utc | 10

@Powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 12:10 utc | 2

"Tipping point negotiating terms is nearing.

Here is what they may be. Based on precedent.

https://www.lauriemeadows.info/conflict_security/Treaties_of%20_Settlement-Ukraine.html "

Very rational and thoughtful piece. Thanks for the link.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:19 utc | 11

@VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:15 utc | 8

"Any opinions on how this ends?"

Read the article at the link posted by Powerandpeople @2, the whole thing.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:23 utc | 12

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:15 utc | 8: Any opinions on how this ends?

Defeat in Ukraine is a death sentence for NATO, therefore NATO will never give up. This will end when individual NATO member states revolt, precipitating the collapse of NATO, and at the same time the collapse of the EU.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Jun 12 2022 13:31 utc | 13

@ VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:15 utc | 8

Agreed, it beats me how anyone can still believe it is possible to negotiate with the Ukies or the west.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 12 2022 13:31 utc | 14

Any settlement of Ukraine conflict short of full reunion of Ukraine to Russia (and Belarus) will be akin to treason and treated as such.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 13:33 utc | 15

@ the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:23 utc | 12

If you honestly think negotiations are possible you should change your handle.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 12 2022 13:33 utc | 16

@the pessimist 12
I did read most of it. But the author assumes that Ukraine will be a party to negotiations and that Russia will “ask” to have the people decide in referenda. But Russia is creating facts on the ground in Ukraine already by issuing Russian passports to those who want them, introducing the Ruble as the effective currency and paying pensions in Rubles to those who are Russian “citizens”. So by the time this is over there won’t be any need to ask for recognition because those regions will already be established integrated regions of Russia.

The Western part will likely collapse internally. What happens there is what intrigues me.

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:34 utc | 17

Most likely scenario is military coup in Ukraine/Kiev.
Military junta will switch side to Russia and Ukrainian army defeat NATO (Poland) on its own with Russian covert support.
Even Arestovitch sees that ... and seeks to switch side himself ...
:)

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 13:36 utc | 18

@circumspect | Jun 12 2022 13:14 utc | 7

"The military summary channel mentioned something interesting yesterday. He said the residents of Mykolaiv are receiving very meager rations of bread and they have to use coupons to receive the bread. He said it is a very small ration.

He said there is a great deal of communication between Mykolaiv and Kherson and the residents of Mykolaiv see that the residents of Kherson are doing much better under Russian governance. Pensions are being paid, people are working and eating normal. Services are working. There is fuel.

He believes there is a gread deal of support for Russia in Mykolaiv and that the Russians may be now beginning to move in that direction. Phase two?

With the Ukraininas conscripting women between the ages of 18 and 60 I think that a great deal of anger would begin to become obvious in the poulation centers of the Ukraine."

He specifically, and correctly, mentioned the "older generation" who remember life under the USSR. At least some of their children (and grandchildren) share their sentiments as can be witnessed in various interviews that have been posted with residents from Kherson region.

Military Summary is an exceptional source and stands out amid all the hyperventilation going on. He mentioned a few days ago that the US certainty of pending Russian military action was based, at least partially, on the establishment of field hospitals near Ukrainian borders (to treat wounded soldiers) - an extremely reliable indicator of imminent conflict. As he said - you need blood when you are preparing to fight.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:40 utc | 19

"Rising from their delusions, with
shit covered egg faces. Bout time.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 12 2022 13:09 utc | 6
____________________________________________

C,mon, Sean! Don't tell me you didn't enjoy a peek or two into TTG's and Lang's rapid descent into insanity and hence, into (worse for them) IRRELEVANCE?!?

They have regularly been good for more than a few laffs since celebrating their "holiday on April 1st!

Posted by: Garry Owen | Jun 12 2022 13:40 utc | 20

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:34 utc | 17

Ukraine is Russia that's all.
Ukrainians are misled Russians.
Current conflict is the continuation of Russian civil war 1917-1922 (same protagonists).
Russia wins and takes it all.
Ineluctable ...

Empire of Lies crumbling, crumbling, crumbled.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 13:42 utc | 21

"So the best way to get something done...If you ..If you hold near and dear to you that you.. uh... like to be able to uh........ anyway"

Joe Tzu

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 12 2022 13:47 utc | 22


It's hard for me to see how this can last much longer. Conscription for Woman may be a trigger. Now Washington seems to realize it's very big mistake starting this, the only thing that makes political sense is to try to put out the fire very soon and apply MSM forgetfullness
into the election. Seems the feelers have already been put out for this. Not saying it will work, the Russians have their own ideas.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jun 12 2022 13:50 utc | 23

@VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:34 utc | 17

Someplace in that piece the author mentions that Russia is in the process of creating conditions in Ukraine which will necessitate capitulation and negotiation by Kiev. The Russian government has repeatedly said they are ready to negotiate - when the other party is prepared to sit down in good faith. I do believe that some governmental entity will emerge in Kiev that will sit down and negotiate seriously with Russia and they will come to acceptable terms including the rewriting of the Ukrainian constitution. How soon this will occur and with whom it will be is, of course, still unknown. I personally believe this is most likely to happen when Russia controls Odessa, not before. We will see.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:56 utc | 24

@MarkU | Jun 12 2022 13:33 utc | 16

"If you honestly think negotiations are possible you should change your handle."

I started using this handle before the 2014 coup and see no particular reason to change it now. While it is specific to the Ukraine issue, I keep it to remind myself that things don't always work out as we hoped, but still life goes on.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 14:05 utc | 25

Well worth watching, including some of the most powerful stuff at the end: Scott Ritter interview by Judge Napolitano
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qQrQCBYQXE

Posted by: fx | Jun 12 2022 14:13 utc | 26

@ the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 14:05 utc | 25

Fair enough.

I'd much prefer to be wrong than dead, I can't remember the last time I hoped to be right.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 12 2022 14:14 utc | 27

The United States is not longer in control of what's happening in Ukraine, it may be able to move the trend a little at the margins but it can't change the outcome.

The U.S. needs to dig out it's copy of the Draft Russian Treaty from Dec. 2021 and figure out how it's going to comply.

Posted by: Little_eddie | Jun 12 2022 14:14 utc | 28

@MarkU | Jun 12 2022 14:14 utc | 27

"I'd much prefer to be wrong than dead, ...."

We will all be dead sooner or later. That's life.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 14:18 utc | 29

If the US tries to cut Zelensky loose there will be a lot of fireworks. The Ukies have the dirt if both US corruption (Hunter Biden and his pals) not to mention the servers showing the Russian collusion story was a hoax. They won’t go down quietly.

On the final map of Ukraine after all of this is over its highly probable that even more entertainment awaits. Why shouldn’t Russia take its regions and then declare the Western portion of Ukraine a protectorate again s NATO aggression. It could then dangle this land as bait for either Poland or Bulgaria to expand. The winner would be the one who betrays NATO.

Many fun games ahead.

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 14:24 utc | 30

VtObserver@30:
Please accept this a sincere compliment.

The last paragraph of yours is worthy of the master, Machiavelli himself! Bravissimo!

Posted by: morongobill | Jun 12 2022 14:30 utc | 31

From IntelSlava

🇺🇦🇷🇺 To the question of who is shelling Donetsk.

Kachur Roman Vladimirovich, a native of Sumy, colonel, commander of the 55th separate artillery brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From 2014 to 2018, he commanded the artillery of the 81st Airborne Brigade, which operated in the Donetsk direction and also shelled Donetsk (Petrovsky and Kyiv districts).

The brigade is armed with foreign military equipment, including 155-mm self-propelled guns "Caesar" and towed howitzers M777, which have been used to shell Donetsk in recent weeks. In recent days, it has been using, among other things, ammunition with a remote fuse in residential areas.


https://t.me/intelslava/31025

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2022 14:35 utc | 32

If you lose 5% of your force each day
Make it up in the long run by protracted war

Joe Tzu

Posted by: Sushi | Jun 12 2022 14:35 utc | 33

@morongobill | Jun 12 2022 14:30 utc | 31
Thanks. I should have said Romania instead of Bulgaria though.
The Romanians fought with the Austria/German alliance in WW1 until a few weeks before then end. They changed sides at the last minute and demanded that they get treated as an ally of the West in the Versailles treaty. And it WORKED!

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 14:46 utc | 34

US has done something very very stupid. By re-oppening this can of worms it has returned Europe to 1941-42 as if when Rudolf Hess flew to Scotland on 13. May 1941 he had gotten UK to join forces with German Reich in attacking Russia.............

Johnson has undone the whole WW2 Mythology in UK which Churchill created to cover up the fact he had bankrupted the country and lost the empire leaving a country dependent on Marshall Aid and unable to hold Greece or Palestine or India and facing the Red Army with 5.5 million men mobilised.

The whole edifice of postwar UK delusion is now exposed and the institutions are corroding. Johnson has destroyed the basis on which UK survived. It is not just Ukraine which is delusional.

The most battle-hardened army on the Eurasian Continent is Russian - it has projected power and limited and focused its scope leaving Western Europe wondering how much of the Near Abroad Russia wishes to re-shape.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 14:47 utc | 35

disagree with zero hedge on Zelensky not listeing to Biden about the "invasion." U.S., NATO & Ukraine were attacking the Donbass for 8 years. this was exactly the game plan.

this bs from Biden is meant to play into us here in Amerika and elsewhere who continue to fall for the MSM line.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Jun 12 2022 14:49 utc | 36

polarbear4@36..eight years, two under Biden, four under Trump, two+ under Obama, no shortage of blame to make a few swing.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 12 2022 14:57 utc | 37

"Well worth watching, including some of the most powerful stuff at the end: Scott Ritter interview by Judge Napolitano"

Posted by: fx | Jun 12 2022 14:13 utc | 26
_____________________________________

It's funny listening to Napolitano's tone of bewildered disbelief when he hears of the Russians' using their own funds to rebuild Eastern Ukraine and how he was so enamored of the idea that the Russians "leveled and destroyed" the cities, factories and fields of Ukraine! Ritter at least disabused him of that error!

Posted by: Garry Owen | Jun 12 2022 15:02 utc | 38

The most battle-hardened army on the Eurasian Continent is Russian - it has projected power and limited and focused its scope leaving Western Europe wondering how much of the Near Abroad Russia wishes to re-shape.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 14:47 utc | 35

Appreciate your comments regarding Churchill, it has always mystified me why the UK makes of him someone to emulate.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 12 2022 15:13 utc | 39

sean the leprechaun@37 indeed.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Jun 12 2022 15:14 utc | 40

I do not understand how US will domestically be able to back down. All Biden has going is Trump Derangement Syndrome. The January 6 insurrection hearings will be about blaming Trump for the ongoing military failure. It is all thin reeds. The segment of the population afflicted with TDS is small, they are massively vocal and believe they are the whole universe.

Vietnam ended with "The politicians wouldn't let us win!!" and of course blaming hippie betrayal. We are still in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq we pretended to execute some actor in lieu of Saddam. In Libya we claimed victory by executing Qaddafi (maybe). Afghanistan was just a clumsy withdrawal. We were never even there in Somalia, it never happened. Defeat in Ukraine is going to be harder. Russia is the hereditary enemy. In all conflicts above Russia was the real enemy. This time the ultimate evil kicked Western ass, visibly and severely.

The whole world has seen that Western weapons ain't shit. The whole world has seen that being a US ally is a disaster. Everyone loves a winner, Putin gets that mantle. Russia scores a huge victory.

Maybe depopulation has been the game all along. There is no good end in sight. At least for one sitting in America or Europe.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 12 2022 15:17 utc | 41

@Down South #3
Re: strengthening ruble leading to Western losses
This is barely directionally accurate, but is factually wrong.

Oil prices are set worldwide; these prices have gone up for everyone. All that the strengthening ruble does is yield relatively less rubles from oil sales for the Russian economy. Russia and russians operate on rubles.

A simple example:
Oil at $100 with ruble at 75 - Russia gains 7500 rubles per barrel of oil sold.
Oil at $120 with ruble at 58 - Russia gains 6960 rubles per barrel of oil sold.
Russia actually gets 540 less rubles per barrel due to the exchange rate strengthening, even as oil price increases 20%.

Of course, in reality, Russia's government has planned its budget for oil @$45 - but presumably at an exchange rate of around 70-75 = 3150 to 3375 rubles so the "loss" is really just less profit, but still...

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 15:22 utc | 42

There are all reasons to think that Zelensky is a Soviet agent.

Operation "Z" as in "Ze".
"Not one step back" (direct quote from Stalin).
"The West must send more weapons" (to be delivered immediately to LDNR troops) ...
"Indebt Ukraine to the amount of 40 billions" for military warfare. Get you big cut, deliver Ukraine back to USSR. never repay the debt (think of it as Ukraine's Bonds") ...

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:25 utc | 43

The "end game" as we have witnessed in (especially) recent history has resulted in half-assed cockups.

It would be neat and tidy if Russia can achieve its denazification goals and demilitarize (make neutral) a Rump Ukraine and follow up with its hostile NATO neighbors.

Odds are against this when we study history.

Of course, the US has been the shite stirrer and final arbiter which results in these magnificent worldwide clusterfooks.

Let us hope that Russia (in pursuit & control of its thoughtfully planned solutions it professes) makes for less of a cockup.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2022 15:25 utc | 44

Putin does not wish to rebuilt USSR - says he.
He may inadvertenly do it anyway and become the new Tsar of it ...
He'll blame it on Joe Tzu or someone else - John Lennon may be.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:29 utc | 45

@oldhippie #41
My view is that Biden/Democrats have been trying to use Ukraine to deflect some of the damage from inflation.
I don't see that changing until the election. A loss in Ukraine - either outright military victory by Russia or a negotiated settlement by Ukraine - is going to double down the losses from inflation and turn the November election from a landslide into something historic.
So, I agree with you but only conditionally: Ukraine has to not lose until at least November. An extra counterbalance is that the US military knows full well what it cannot do - it cannot change the course of the conflict in Ukraine; at a minimum with a declaration of war - and potentially not at all in the short term (which is all that matters right now).

1/6 hearings are the latest attempt to deflect both from inflation and now from Ukraine, but I don't see those having any real effect other than damage control among the TDS.
The footage being shown of the 1/2017 riots in Washington vs. the 1/2021 "insurrection" is extremely damning.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 15:30 utc | 46

I believe we've reached Ukraine's war peak.
From now on it's gonna be only fast gliding down to USSR.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dc2tJqnkLLA

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:32 utc | 47

I noted some time ago that Turkiye's refusal to endorse Sweden and Finland into NATO may not just be the usual Erdogan fan dance; Finland is now calling Turkiye's raise:

Finland refuses one of Turkiye's conditions for joining NATO

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 15:33 utc | 48

oldhippie@41

It cannot be overstated the domino effect caused by the poor performance of Western (particularly US) weaponery compared to Russian equivalents.

The fat lady that hasn't sung yet is the F35. The US, NATO and Finland it seems have bet the farm (more accuratedly a huge portion of their military budgets) on this turkey, and I am convinced the proponents of the F35 *still* believe it is truly a wunderwaffe and would "change the outcome of the war". IMHO if Russia can show what a piece of crap it is, NATO evaporates like piss on a hot stove.

Interesting times await.

Posted by: Simplicius | Jun 12 2022 15:33 utc | 49

There are all reasons to think that Zelensky is a Soviet agent.

Operation "Z" as in "Ze".
"Not one step back" (direct quote from Stalin).
"The West must send more weapons" (to be delivered immediately to LDNR troops) ...
"Indebt Ukraine to the amount of 40 billions" for military warfare. Get you big cut, deliver Ukraine back to USSR. never repay the debt (think of it as Ukraine's Bonds") ...

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:25 utc | 43

This is literally a "conspiracy theory", but at least it's funny!

Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 15:34 utc | 50

Since the 12th of June and День России / Russia Day, here`s to you, Russian barflies!

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jun 12 2022 15:34 utc | 51

Chaka Khagan @44
Of course, recent russian history is full of foreign policy successes. Just compare the map of soviet union to todays map of russia. May all empires be as succesfull!

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 52

Re: Negotiations with NATO

Most people here see no point in negotiations with NATO. But let's put the question in another way. What countries will Russia invite to Kiev to sign the Articles of Surrender?

I believe all Western countries that are part of this war need to be invited. This includes all countries that are supplying weapons. If they do not sign, then the state of war will continue forever.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53

Following that line, the first commenter at the Walrus piece, attacks 2 million immigrants at the Mexican border, without consideration of US War policy, anti- communist, anti-socialist policies, persistent meddling and shite stirring in their respective countries.

US Policy which hurts these people by wrecking their economies, installing puppets, enriching criminals, encouraging crime, and making life generally unsafe.

When people are worried that their children are endangered by criminals, they'll do anything necessary to protect them. This includes hiking thru deserts, dealing with coyotes, etc.

Fooking tv watching rednecks.

As a barber, I hear so much of this fooking xenophobic garbage, I am disgusted.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 54

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 14:47 utc | 35

Very interesting view of the situation Paul.


Posted by: Jpc | Jun 12 2022 15:36 utc | 55

Petri Krohn @53
Why do so many internet generals forget nuclear weapons? NATO Russia war does not continue forever.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 15:42 utc | 56

Why do so many internet generals forget nuclear weapons? NATO Russia war does not continue forever.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 15:42 utc | 56

That is a very good observation.

As modus operandi is: One nuke anywhere, very soon all of them everywhere.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 12 2022 15:51 utc | 57

Former British soldier 'shot dead' in fighting in Severodonetsk.
Jordan Gatley served with the British Army until March when "after careful consideration... he went to Ukraine to help," his father wrote on Facebook.

Interesting this "served with the British Army until March"

You can read the rest, if you want here, https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-former-british-soldier-shot-dead-in-fighting-in-severodonetsk-12632525

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 15:52 utc | 58

@Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53

"Most people here see no point in negotiations with NATO. But let's put the question in another way. What countries will Russia invite to Kiev to sign the Articles of Surrender?

I believe all Western countries that are part of this war need to be invited. This includes all countries that are supplying weapons. If they do not sign, then the state of war will continue forever."

I would guess tweedle dee and tweedle dum (France and Germany). An interesting twist would be to get Poland to sign. Perhaps Russia can engineer that. A pair of handcuffs for the Poles. Perhaps the other neighboring states will be convinced as well.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 15:54 utc | 59

Why bother with NATO in regard to Ukraine surrender? They didn't have the backbone to uphold Minsk II and their vassal status has only gotten worse.

#49 reply

The F-35 seems invincible (could be true). I think Russia is working on a SU-57 response involving some sort of drone/missile that can hit a F-35, air to air. Downing one would shake the globe.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 12 2022 16:02 utc | 60

www.massnews.com

Radoslaw Siloski (sic), an ex-Polish foreign minister and member in the European Parliament, stated that Ukraine might be supplied with nukes by the West in order to defend itself against Russia.

“The West has the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads so that it could protect its independence,” Sikorski told Ukraine’s Espreso TV on Saturday.

Sikorski reaffirmed his position on Sunday. He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin, of trying to threaten Ukraine with nukes and said that the West should take responsibility. “dissuade” him.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2022 16:10 utc | 61

@Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2022 16:10 utc | 61

"www.massnews.com

Radoslaw Siloski (sic), an ex-Polish foreign minister and member in the European Parliament, stated that Ukraine might be supplied with nukes by the West in order to defend itself against Russia.

“The West has the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads so that it could protect its independence,” Sikorski told Ukraine’s Espreso TV on Saturday.

Sikorski reaffirmed his position on Sunday. He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin, of trying to threaten Ukraine with nukes and said that the West should take responsibility. “dissuade” him."

Moscow has responded saying Sikorski obviously needs psychiatric help.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 16:15 utc | 62

@Eighthman #60
The original F35 concept was potentially useful, but the F35 as exists today - after extensive modifications to make it acceptable to the Navy, the Marines, etc etc is very possibly junk. A literal embodiment of Clarke's "Superiority" losing side...

Secondly, a number of people have noted that "stealth" technology is much less useful with the advent of photonic radars.

If the above is even remotely true - the F35 is much more likely to be junk since it is not particularly fast, not particularly tough, not very many of them, not durable, expensive to make and operate, etc etc.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:16 utc | 63

Ukrainian propagandists report on the organization of a pro-Ukrainian rally in Kherson, which will be held... online.
Well?
-------------------

About F35s, why doesn't any of those super-duper F35s never fly near the Russian border?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 16:20 utc | 64

Herding ill-trained and -armed proletarian women unable to avoid conscription into trenches in the Donbas to be slaughtered may titillate the cruel plutocratic perverts that own and rule the West but it will be the absolute end to any last shred of pretense that those owners and rulers and their regime are anything other than what they are.

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 12 2022 16:22 utc | 65

@ morongobill | Jun 12 2022 12:05 utc | 1

that was good for a laugh... pat still bans my posts... alternative viewpoints will not be tolerated... at this point i think pat is on the same pay roll as bellingcrap..

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 16:25 utc | 66

@ Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53

its a good question, but i think we are beyond the era of agreements.... and as many have noted the usa are not agreement capable...

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 16:26 utc | 67

Christoforou in his talk today mentioned that Ukrainians who accept Russian passports get all their Ukrainian debts erased.

How's that for a concrete reason to vote Putin?

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:27 utc | 68

I just stumbled upon a wiki page "Disinformation" which is a hot topic currently especially for liar Blinken (e.g. "Russia's unprovoked invasion"). The wiki piece intensively covers the history of disinformation with 99 percent to Russia's credit, which makes the page disinformation in itself !

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 16:28 utc | 69

ostro @64
My question is: Why doesnt the SU-57 fly?
Of course I mean not near foreign borders? Or war zones? You might think it is not a war plane…
For what its worth, I think F-35 is a dud. But one weapons system failing means the end of a whole alliance? Clearly you are part of an empire and make your own reality.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 16:32 utc | 70

Christoforou in his talk today mentioned that Ukrainians who accept Russian passports get all their Ukrainian debts erased.

How's that for a concrete reason to vote Putin?

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:27 utc | 68

Could work in the US too...

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 16:36 utc | 71

@Joe6pack #70
There's minimal benefit flying a 5th gen fighter in Ukraine.
There have been no dogfights, at all, between Ukrainian and Russian planes that I am aware of, for one thing.
Secondly, why deploy the newest fighter when all you gain from doing so, is providing intel to NATO?

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:38 utc | 72

68 & 71

While many US Americans have been conditioned to express contempt for the receipt of "government money" as "welfare" or "handouts for freeloaders", I never met one that refused his CV relief check, for example.

Millionaire McCain cashed his Social Security checks.

Meanwhile, Biden has taken a whack at Medicare for the benefit of Private Insurers.

It's amazing what he can do when he sets his mind to it (feeble as it is).

Everyone needs more money to pay for Biden's war policies.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2022 16:45 utc | 73

@chaka Khagan

Your precious oppressed brown and black people from south of the border are illegal immigrants who are not entitled to enter the United States by just walking in. They come here to make money and to get free services. There are many NGO set up by radical leftists who help them. They can get drivers license in many states and in some are registered to vote automatically even though it is illegal nobody at dmv verifies legal status. They have changed the demographic profile of CA, NV, AZ, TX and others. They are taking up housing and taking jobs from young Americans. Many are drug dealers and criminals. They are lowering standards in schools and making demands for race based equity not equality. For them equity is getting free stuff “ just because they are black” They are key to the replacement strategy of Democrats where white, middle class republican voters are overwhelmed and disenfranchised. Time to finish the wall and deport, deport, deport.

Posted by: Bobolinski | Jun 12 2022 16:46 utc | 74

@65 It also poses an interesting dilemma for feminists. Are these Ukrainian women being allowed to reach their full potential in combat or are they being exploited?

Posted by: dh | Jun 12 2022 16:47 utc | 75

c1cue @72
Indeed. And maybe some of those reasons also apply to F-35?
Just one disagreement. I think dogfights have been history for decades. And will remain so.

Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 16:49 utc | 76

c1ue @72: "There have been no dogfights, at all, between Ukrainian and Russian planes that I am aware of..."

There was at least one that I know of, and it was mentioned last week in one of the MoD briefs that RSH posts here regularly. There may have been more but it would have been months ago before I started paying closer attention to the MoD briefs (thanks for making that convenient, RSH!). At the same time the Ukrainians have not had any airworthy aircraft since day one of the SMO until recently, so the dogfight near Kharkov might have been the only one.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 12 2022 16:49 utc | 77

All metal, no manpower - Russian infantry shortages in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs

This guy makes some valid points (although he using Kofman as a primary source and his bias bleeds through). In addition he quotes DPR/LPR leaders who are claiming that some of the DPR/LPR troops are being used as cannon fodder. Being a recent convert, I am not sufficiently educated on the nuances of the DPR/LPR to know where the bullshit is sprinkled amidst the nuggets of truth, so I cannot comment on its utility. Also again, Kofman is the primary source.

Posted by: eyeswideopen | Jun 12 2022 16:49 utc | 78

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:19 utc | 11

Excellent share. There are a lot of historical, documented facts to appreciate in this concise exposition which cannot be repeated too often, even among MoA correspondents who are inclined to attribute mission creep to XI and PUTIN, ahem, "thought". Also, I as one who wrestles with my own pedantic tendacies and typographic erros am delighted to find correct usage of the words precendent and malice.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 16:50 utc | 79

@Joe6pack #76
The F35 doesn't fly in Ukraine because Ukraine doesn't have any.

Even if the US were to give some to Ukraine - which I cannot see a reason to do so under any circumstances whatsoever - it isn't clear when Ukrainian pilots would be trained sufficiently to operate them, or that Ukraine is able to, or can even afford to maintain or supply them.

Ukraine does have benefit from being able to achieve air superiority - it is the only possible way to slow down or stop the Russian land attack.

But of course, the capability of the F35 to achieve air superiority against the Russian air force, much less the Russian air defenses, is far from obvious.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:53 utc | 80

errata
LOL!

Posted by: Powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 12:10 utc | 2
Draft settlement treaty - Ukraine

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 16:53 utc | 81

@Greg Galloway #71
Only if we have a Red Dawn - with Russians instead of Chinese or North Koreans...

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:56 utc | 82

Even if the US were to give some to Ukraine

give ?

Why doesn't US simply give UK F-35s at $140 million a copy ?

Has the Us really "given" any weapons to Ukraine as opposed to invoicing them ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 16:58 utc | 83

Moscow has responded saying Sikorski obviously needs psychiatric help.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 16:15 utc | 62


This confirms a view I've held for quite some time that the proportion of nutjobs in the European Parliament (EP) is several times larger than in the general population. It seems even to be larger than the similar proportion in EU national parliaments. I won't even mention the US Congress, it's a separate story in itself. I wonder whether this is by design or it is a natural phenomenon.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 12 2022 16:59 utc | 84

@Joe6pack #76
A dogfight, as I am referring to, isn't swooping about - guns vs. guns a la World War 2. A dogfight is simply plane on plane combat.

@William Gruff #77
Even if there were 3 dogfights, it is clear that this is not a major or even a minor part of the SMO. It is simply a rounding error vs. the number of Ukrainian aircraft shot down by Russian air defenses.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:59 utc | 85

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:27 utc | 68

Yes, it is a special deal. Russia takes control of a town and tells Ukrainian banks to forget being repaid.

It is what US normally does with Venezuelan or Russian or Iranian or Afghan money

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 17:00 utc | 86

I do not understand how US will domestically be able to back down.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 12 2022 15:17 utc | 41

Fade from tabloid EXISTENTIAL headlines, as is the custom, to a litany of "role model" celebrity trivia.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 17:01 utc | 87

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:16 utc | 63

The original F35 concept was potentially useful

Oh you mean when it was known as the Yakovlev-141 before Lockheed-Martin bought the plans ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 17:02 utc | 88

The Russians are stealing grain from Ukraine was one of MSM's main themes here in the UK last week.

I believe it was the EU Weapons for Grain in Ukraine and other western financed Land/Resource theft that's been scuppered. A carbon copy of America's oil & wheat theft in Syria which is causing a humanitarian crisis.

Russia's SMO will see them and their Ukrainian partners have a controlling interest in the Global Grain and Fertiliser Markets,

He who controls the Energy & Agriculture controls the Earth and no amount of printed western Fiat will alter this.

Of course they hate Putin & Russia, he's playing them at their own game and toying with them.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 12 2022 17:03 utc | 89

@William Gruff #77
I would add furthermore that neither Ukraine nor Russia has even attempted air supremacy.
Russia has air superiority, but there are still Ukrainian air defenses as well as apparently at least a few Ukrainian jets and helicopters squirreled away and/or coming across the Polish border.

Could the F35 achieve air supremacy? Such that it could start Iraq style bombardment of Russian military units in Ukraine?
That's the part which I was referencing as being not the least bit clear, particularly in the short term.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 17:04 utc | 90

@Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:16 utc | 63

It does surprise me that Putin hasn't given the clearance and ability to the Syrians to start shooting down those F35's, it would be a huge propaganda victory if Israel's F35's start falling out of the sky. Perhaps Putin is playing the long game, allowing the West to continue to waste such huge amounts of money on this pile of crap. Then, if there is an actual NATO/Russia engagement the F35 will suddenly be shown to be useless against the Russian anti-aircraft, jamming, and interceptor capabilities. A huge propaganda and morale victory, as well as a military one.

A declaration of independence by Taiwan, followed by a Chinese unstoppable invasion, and then a US attempted response may be the best case for such a demonstration. The US fleet would be shown to be utterly useless with such dud aircraft, and it would be chased back to the second island chain conclusively.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 12 2022 17:05 utc | 91

There are all reasons to think that Zelensky is a Soviet agent.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:25 utc | 43

Soviet Union collapsed 1991 - Zelensky was 12 years old.
You must be American - I understand the news has not yet gone through to the USA that the Soviet Union collapsed........and that Americans are bewildered that Stalin is dead and Mao is embalmed.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 17:06 utc | 92

@Paul Greenwood #83
It depends on your point of view.

Yes, the US is "lend leasing" or some nonsense - but is Ukraine really ever going to be able to repay these loans? Particularly since it seems that the majority of Ukraine's GDP comes from the Russian speaking East which is now lost?

A loan which is never repaid, or repayable, is a gift.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 17:07 utc | 93

@Roger #91
Please expand on what you mean. Who owns the F35s in question and where are they operating?
I haven't been following Syria closely, but I don't believe Israeli F35s are meandering about in Syria's airspace.
It is more than possible that F35s have been used to attack targets in Syria, but that is a very different situation than above mentioned air supremacy or air superiority.

The intrusions I am aware of are more in line with Mongol hit and run tactics, and there are good reasons for Syria not to shoot at anything that moves in its airspace (civilian airliners, among other things).

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 17:10 utc | 94

" the proportion of nutjobs in the European Parliament (EP) is several times larger than in the general population." Pagan@84
It is not unrelated to the fact that the European Parliament has no power.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 12 2022 17:12 utc | 95

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 15:22 utc | 42

Yes, so-called "discount" pricing is a crock of USD-denominated ("petrodollar") market making. Besides, as quiet as it's kept, western financial instutitions actually had little means other than enforcing SWIFT recordation and surveillance to track open market FX transactions and bi-lateral currency swaps. At this point, the only barrier to wholesale settlement in EME pairs is the confidence among counterparties in mark-to-market asset stability.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 17:14 utc | 96

I as one who wrestles with my own pedantic tendacies and typographic erros am delighted to find correct usage of the words precendent and malice. sln2002@79
Good to see we've returned to a more traditional kind of humour.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 12 2022 17:15 utc | 97

Here's the latest on F-35 Air Combat Maneuvering (the technical term for dogfighting).

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 17:16 utc | 98

@Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53

"Most people here see no point in negotiations with NATO. But let's put the question in another way. What countries will Russia invite to Kiev to sign the Articles of Surrender?"


Luxembourg is my guess.

Posted by: JohnT. | Jun 12 2022 17:19 utc | 99

Napolitano's tone of bewildered disbelief
Posted by: Garry Owen | Jun 12 2022 15:02 utc | 38

Napolitano is a "neo-con": profit before people, all day, every day. Perhaps it is to this worldview that Ritter speaks. Idunno. I can't a minute of Napolitano's FoxNews diatribes.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 17:20 utc | 100

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