Interesting thread

AZ OSINT
@AZmilitary1
🇺🇸 The strengthening of the ruble leads to financial losses of the West, — National Interest
The further strengthening of the ruble exchange rate leads to additional costs for the West when buying Russian energy resources, the American National Interest states
2:14 PM · Jun 12, 2022·Twitter Web App
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The decision of the Head of the Russian State to accept payment for gas in the national currency led to a significant strengthening of the ruble, — National Interest notes
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The burden that has fallen on the shoulders of the West, forced to pay in rubles for gas, will become increasingly painful for the West.
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If the ruble continues to strengthen in the coming months, Western countries will have to bear additional costs to convert their currencies into rubles in order to pay for the import of irreplaceable energy resources,” the National Interest emphasizes
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Such a development of events will increase the demand for Russian currency in the world, and will also show the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia, the American National Interest concludes

Posted by: Down South | Jun 12 2022 12:29 utc | 3

Re: #1
It’s truly depressing that SST “committee” is asking this kind of question at this late stage:

Is Ukraine Losing? By Walrus.

For potato sake, Walrus, yes, Ukraina is losing the war.

Posted by: Ricardo Ramirez | Jun 12 2022 13:07 utc | 5

The military summary channel mentioned something interesting yesterday. He said the residents of Mykolaiv are receiving very meager rations of bread and they have to use coupons to receive the bread. He said it is a very small ration.
He said there is a great deal of communication between Mykolaiv and Kherson and the residents of Mykolaiv see that the residents of Kherson are doing much better under Russian governance. Pensions are being paid, people are working and eating normal. Services are working. There is fuel.
He believes there is a gread deal of support for Russia in Mykolaiv and that the Russians may be now beginning to move in that direction. Phase two?
With the Ukraininas conscripting women between the ages of 18 and 60 I think that a great deal of anger would begin to become obvious in the poulation centers of the Ukraine.

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 12 2022 13:14 utc | 7

All the declaration of giving.
Weapons systems XYZ to the Ukrainian forces.
I seem to remember something about the munitions stocks within NATO wouldn’t last a month of prolonged conflict.
I can’t find the article written about two decades ago (Afghanistan/Iraq wars) but I’d imagine the stocks haven’t been improved in the interim.
It’s not the worst thing given the incredible destruction possible.
But with all the game changer guff.
Maybe NATO didn’t plan for a prolonged conflict that the Russians have since waged.

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 12 2022 13:19 utc | 9

@Powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 12:10 utc | 2
“Tipping point negotiating terms is nearing.
Here is what they may be. Based on precedent.
https://www.lauriemeadows.info/conflict_security/Treaties_of%20_Settlement-Ukraine.html ”
Very rational and thoughtful piece. Thanks for the link.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:19 utc | 11

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:15 utc | 8: Any opinions on how this ends?
Defeat in Ukraine is a death sentence for NATO, therefore NATO will never give up. This will end when individual NATO member states revolt, precipitating the collapse of NATO, and at the same time the collapse of the EU.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Jun 12 2022 13:31 utc | 13

Any settlement of Ukraine conflict short of full reunion of Ukraine to Russia (and Belarus) will be akin to treason and treated as such.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 13:33 utc | 15

@the pessimist 12
I did read most of it. But the author assumes that Ukraine will be a party to negotiations and that Russia will “ask” to have the people decide in referenda. But Russia is creating facts on the ground in Ukraine already by issuing Russian passports to those who want them, introducing the Ruble as the effective currency and paying pensions in Rubles to those who are Russian “citizens”. So by the time this is over there won’t be any need to ask for recognition because those regions will already be established integrated regions of Russia.
The Western part will likely collapse internally. What happens there is what intrigues me.

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:34 utc | 17

@circumspect | Jun 12 2022 13:14 utc | 7
“The military summary channel mentioned something interesting yesterday. He said the residents of Mykolaiv are receiving very meager rations of bread and they have to use coupons to receive the bread. He said it is a very small ration.
He said there is a great deal of communication between Mykolaiv and Kherson and the residents of Mykolaiv see that the residents of Kherson are doing much better under Russian governance. Pensions are being paid, people are working and eating normal. Services are working. There is fuel.
He believes there is a gread deal of support for Russia in Mykolaiv and that the Russians may be now beginning to move in that direction. Phase two?
With the Ukraininas conscripting women between the ages of 18 and 60 I think that a great deal of anger would begin to become obvious in the poulation centers of the Ukraine.”
He specifically, and correctly, mentioned the “older generation” who remember life under the USSR. At least some of their children (and grandchildren) share their sentiments as can be witnessed in various interviews that have been posted with residents from Kherson region.
Military Summary is an exceptional source and stands out amid all the hyperventilation going on. He mentioned a few days ago that the US certainty of pending Russian military action was based, at least partially, on the establishment of field hospitals near Ukrainian borders (to treat wounded soldiers) – an extremely reliable indicator of imminent conflict. As he said – you need blood when you are preparing to fight.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:40 utc | 19

Posted by: VtObserver | Jun 12 2022 13:34 utc | 17
Ukraine is Russia that’s all.
Ukrainians are misled Russians.
Current conflict is the continuation of Russian civil war 1917-1922 (same protagonists).
Russia wins and takes it all.
Ineluctable …
Empire of Lies crumbling, crumbling, crumbled.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 13:42 utc | 21

It’s hard for me to see how this can last much longer. Conscription for Woman may be a trigger. Now Washington seems to realize it’s very big mistake starting this, the only thing that makes political sense is to try to put out the fire very soon and apply MSM forgetfullness
into the election. Seems the feelers have already been put out for this. Not saying it will work, the Russians have their own ideas.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jun 12 2022 13:50 utc | 23

@MarkU | Jun 12 2022 13:33 utc | 16
“If you honestly think negotiations are possible you should change your handle.”
I started using this handle before the 2014 coup and see no particular reason to change it now. While it is specific to the Ukraine issue, I keep it to remind myself that things don’t always work out as we hoped, but still life goes on.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 14:05 utc | 25

@ the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 14:05 utc | 25
Fair enough.
I’d much prefer to be wrong than dead, I can’t remember the last time I hoped to be right.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 12 2022 14:14 utc | 27

@MarkU | Jun 12 2022 14:14 utc | 27
“I’d much prefer to be wrong than dead, ….”
We will all be dead sooner or later. That’s life.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 14:18 utc | 29

VtObserver@30:
Please accept this a sincere compliment.
The last paragraph of yours is worthy of the master, Machiavelli himself! Bravissimo!

Posted by: morongobill | Jun 12 2022 14:30 utc | 31

If you lose 5% of your force each day
Make it up in the long run by protracted war
Joe Tzu

Posted by: Sushi | Jun 12 2022 14:35 utc | 33

US has done something very very stupid. By re-oppening this can of worms it has returned Europe to 1941-42 as if when Rudolf Hess flew to Scotland on 13. May 1941 he had gotten UK to join forces with German Reich in attacking Russia………….
Johnson has undone the whole WW2 Mythology in UK which Churchill created to cover up the fact he had bankrupted the country and lost the empire leaving a country dependent on Marshall Aid and unable to hold Greece or Palestine or India and facing the Red Army with 5.5 million men mobilised.
The whole edifice of postwar UK delusion is now exposed and the institutions are corroding. Johnson has destroyed the basis on which UK survived. It is not just Ukraine which is delusional.
The most battle-hardened army on the Eurasian Continent is Russian – it has projected power and limited and focused its scope leaving Western Europe wondering how much of the Near Abroad Russia wishes to re-shape.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 14:47 utc | 35

polarbear4@36..eight years, two under Biden, four under Trump, two+ under Obama, no shortage of blame to make a few swing.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 12 2022 14:57 utc | 37

The most battle-hardened army on the Eurasian Continent is Russian – it has projected power and limited and focused its scope leaving Western Europe wondering how much of the Near Abroad Russia wishes to re-shape.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 14:47 utc | 35
Appreciate your comments regarding Churchill, it has always mystified me why the UK makes of him someone to emulate.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 12 2022 15:13 utc | 39

I do not understand how US will domestically be able to back down. All Biden has going is Trump Derangement Syndrome. The January 6 insurrection hearings will be about blaming Trump for the ongoing military failure. It is all thin reeds. The segment of the population afflicted with TDS is small, they are massively vocal and believe they are the whole universe.
Vietnam ended with “The politicians wouldn’t let us win!!” and of course blaming hippie betrayal. We are still in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq we pretended to execute some actor in lieu of Saddam. In Libya we claimed victory by executing Qaddafi (maybe). Afghanistan was just a clumsy withdrawal. We were never even there in Somalia, it never happened. Defeat in Ukraine is going to be harder. Russia is the hereditary enemy. In all conflicts above Russia was the real enemy. This time the ultimate evil kicked Western ass, visibly and severely.
The whole world has seen that Western weapons ain’t shit. The whole world has seen that being a US ally is a disaster. Everyone loves a winner, Putin gets that mantle. Russia scores a huge victory.
Maybe depopulation has been the game all along. There is no good end in sight. At least for one sitting in America or Europe.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 12 2022 15:17 utc | 41

There are all reasons to think that Zelensky is a Soviet agent.
Operation “Z” as in “Ze”.
“Not one step back” (direct quote from Stalin).
“The West must send more weapons” (to be delivered immediately to LDNR troops) …
“Indebt Ukraine to the amount of 40 billions” for military warfare. Get you big cut, deliver Ukraine back to USSR. never repay the debt (think of it as Ukraine’s Bonds”) …

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:25 utc | 43

Putin does not wish to rebuilt USSR – says he.
He may inadvertenly do it anyway and become the new Tsar of it …
He’ll blame it on Joe Tzu or someone else – John Lennon may be.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:29 utc | 45

I believe we’ve reached Ukraine’s war peak.
From now on it’s gonna be only fast gliding down to USSR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dc2tJqnkLLA

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 15:32 utc | 47

oldhippie@41
It cannot be overstated the domino effect caused by the poor performance of Western (particularly US) weaponery compared to Russian equivalents.
The fat lady that hasn’t sung yet is the F35. The US, NATO and Finland it seems have bet the farm (more accuratedly a huge portion of their military budgets) on this turkey, and I am convinced the proponents of the F35 *still* believe it is truly a wunderwaffe and would “change the outcome of the war”. IMHO if Russia can show what a piece of crap it is, NATO evaporates like piss on a hot stove.
Interesting times await.

Posted by: Simplicius | Jun 12 2022 15:33 utc | 49

Since the 12th of June and День России / Russia Day, here`s to you, Russian barflies!

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jun 12 2022 15:34 utc | 51

Re: Negotiations with NATO
Most people here see no point in negotiations with NATO. But let’s put the question in another way. What countries will Russia invite to Kiev to sign the Articles of Surrender?
I believe all Western countries that are part of this war need to be invited. This includes all countries that are supplying weapons. If they do not sign, then the state of war will continue forever.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 14:47 utc | 35
Very interesting view of the situation Paul.

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 12 2022 15:36 utc | 55

Why do so many internet generals forget nuclear weapons? NATO Russia war does not continue forever.
Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 15:42 utc | 56
That is a very good observation.
As modus operandi is: One nuke anywhere, very soon all of them everywhere.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 12 2022 15:51 utc | 57

@Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53
“Most people here see no point in negotiations with NATO. But let’s put the question in another way. What countries will Russia invite to Kiev to sign the Articles of Surrender?
I believe all Western countries that are part of this war need to be invited. This includes all countries that are supplying weapons. If they do not sign, then the state of war will continue forever.”
I would guess tweedle dee and tweedle dum (France and Germany). An interesting twist would be to get Poland to sign. Perhaps Russia can engineer that. A pair of handcuffs for the Poles. Perhaps the other neighboring states will be convinced as well.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 15:54 utc | 59

http://www.massnews.com
Radoslaw Siloski (sic), an ex-Polish foreign minister and member in the European Parliament, stated that Ukraine might be supplied with nukes by the West in order to defend itself against Russia.
“The West has the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads so that it could protect its independence,” Sikorski told Ukraine’s Espreso TV on Saturday.
Sikorski reaffirmed his position on Sunday. He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin, of trying to threaten Ukraine with nukes and said that the West should take responsibility. “dissuade” him.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2022 16:10 utc | 61

@Eighthman #60
The original F35 concept was potentially useful, but the F35 as exists today – after extensive modifications to make it acceptable to the Navy, the Marines, etc etc is very possibly junk. A literal embodiment of Clarke’s “Superiority” losing side…
Secondly, a number of people have noted that “stealth” technology is much less useful with the advent of photonic radars.
If the above is even remotely true – the F35 is much more likely to be junk since it is not particularly fast, not particularly tough, not very many of them, not durable, expensive to make and operate, etc etc.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:16 utc | 63

Herding ill-trained and -armed proletarian women unable to avoid conscription into trenches in the Donbas to be slaughtered may titillate the cruel plutocratic perverts that own and rule the West but it will be the absolute end to any last shred of pretense that those owners and rulers and their regime are anything other than what they are.

Posted by: John Kennard | Jun 12 2022 16:22 utc | 65

@ Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53
its a good question, but i think we are beyond the era of agreements…. and as many have noted the usa are not agreement capable…

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 16:26 utc | 67

I just stumbled upon a wiki page “Disinformation” which is a hot topic currently especially for liar Blinken (e.g. “Russia’s unprovoked invasion”). The wiki piece intensively covers the history of disinformation with 99 percent to Russia’s credit, which makes the page disinformation in itself !

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 16:28 utc | 69

Christoforou in his talk today mentioned that Ukrainians who accept Russian passports get all their Ukrainian debts erased.
How’s that for a concrete reason to vote Putin?
Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:27 utc | 68
Could work in the US too…

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 12 2022 16:36 utc | 71

68 & 71
While many US Americans have been conditioned to express contempt for the receipt of “government money” as “welfare” or “handouts for freeloaders”, I never met one that refused his CV relief check, for example.
Millionaire McCain cashed his Social Security checks.
Meanwhile, Biden has taken a whack at Medicare for the benefit of Private Insurers.
It’s amazing what he can do when he sets his mind to it (feeble as it is).
Everyone needs more money to pay for Biden’s war policies.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jun 12 2022 16:45 utc | 73

@65 It also poses an interesting dilemma for feminists. Are these Ukrainian women being allowed to reach their full potential in combat or are they being exploited?

Posted by: dh | Jun 12 2022 16:47 utc | 75

c1ue @72: “There have been no dogfights, at all, between Ukrainian and Russian planes that I am aware of…”
There was at least one that I know of, and it was mentioned last week in one of the MoD briefs that RSH posts here regularly. There may have been more but it would have been months ago before I started paying closer attention to the MoD briefs (thanks for making that convenient, RSH!). At the same time the Ukrainians have not had any airworthy aircraft since day one of the SMO until recently, so the dogfight near Kharkov might have been the only one.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 12 2022 16:49 utc | 77

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2022 13:19 utc | 11
Excellent share. There are a lot of historical, documented facts to appreciate in this concise exposition which cannot be repeated too often, even among MoA correspondents who are inclined to attribute mission creep to XI and PUTIN, ahem, “thought”. Also, I as one who wrestles with my own pedantic tendacies and typographic erros am delighted to find correct usage of the words precendent and malice.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 16:50 utc | 79

errata
LOL!
Posted by: Powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 12:10 utc | 2
Draft settlement treaty – Ukraine

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 16:53 utc | 81

Even if the US were to give some to Ukraine
give ?
Why doesn’t US simply give UK F-35s at $140 million a copy ?
Has the Us really “given” any weapons to Ukraine as opposed to invoicing them ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 12 2022 16:58 utc | 83

@Joe6pack #76
A dogfight, as I am referring to, isn’t swooping about – guns vs. guns a la World War 2. A dogfight is simply plane on plane combat.
@William Gruff #77
Even if there were 3 dogfights, it is clear that this is not a major or even a minor part of the SMO. It is simply a rounding error vs. the number of Ukrainian aircraft shot down by Russian air defenses.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:59 utc | 85

I do not understand how US will domestically be able to back down.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 12 2022 15:17 utc | 41
Fade from tabloid EXISTENTIAL headlines, as is the custom, to a litany of “role model” celebrity trivia.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 12 2022 17:01 utc | 87

The Russians are stealing grain from Ukraine was one of MSM’s main themes here in the UK last week.
I believe it was the EU Weapons for Grain in Ukraine and other western financed Land/Resource theft that’s been scuppered. A carbon copy of America’s oil & wheat theft in Syria which is causing a humanitarian crisis.
Russia’s SMO will see them and their Ukrainian partners have a controlling interest in the Global Grain and Fertiliser Markets,
He who controls the Energy & Agriculture controls the Earth and no amount of printed western Fiat will alter this.
Of course they hate Putin & Russia, he’s playing them at their own game and toying with them.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 12 2022 17:03 utc | 89

@Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 16:16 utc | 63
It does surprise me that Putin hasn’t given the clearance and ability to the Syrians to start shooting down those F35’s, it would be a huge propaganda victory if Israel’s F35’s start falling out of the sky. Perhaps Putin is playing the long game, allowing the West to continue to waste such huge amounts of money on this pile of crap. Then, if there is an actual NATO/Russia engagement the F35 will suddenly be shown to be useless against the Russian anti-aircraft, jamming, and interceptor capabilities. A huge propaganda and morale victory, as well as a military one.
A declaration of independence by Taiwan, followed by a Chinese unstoppable invasion, and then a US attempted response may be the best case for such a demonstration. The US fleet would be shown to be utterly useless with such dud aircraft, and it would be chased back to the second island chain conclusively.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 12 2022 17:05 utc | 91

@Paul Greenwood #83
It depends on your point of view.
Yes, the US is “lend leasing” or some nonsense – but is Ukraine really ever going to be able to repay these loans? Particularly since it seems that the majority of Ukraine’s GDP comes from the Russian speaking East which is now lost?
A loan which is never repaid, or repayable, is a gift.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 17:07 utc | 93

” the proportion of nutjobs in the European Parliament (EP) is several times larger than in the general population.” Pagan@84
It is not unrelated to the fact that the European Parliament has no power.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 12 2022 17:12 utc | 95

I as one who wrestles with my own pedantic tendacies and typographic erros am delighted to find correct usage of the words precendent and malice. sln2002@79
Good to see we’ve returned to a more traditional kind of humour.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 12 2022 17:15 utc | 97

@Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 53
“Most people here see no point in negotiations with NATO. But let’s put the question in another way. What countries will Russia invite to Kiev to sign the Articles of Surrender?”
Luxembourg is my guess.

Posted by: JohnT. | Jun 12 2022 17:19 utc | 99