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June 30, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-100
Comments
@ karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 16:29 utc | 196
thanks for that karl… i like your conclusions at the end too.. cheers.
Posted by: james | Jul 1 2022 16:36 utc | 201
Backdoor Quantitative Easing ==> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/eu-to-propose-1-billion-euros-in-immediate-support-for-ukraine?srnd=premium-europe
Just add it to the annals of things that will never be audited.
Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2022 16:38 utc | 202
You can order a Model T Ford in any color as long as it’s black.
You can have any government you like, as long as it’s an Oligarchy run by Multinational Corporate Robber Barons approved by the USA. And don’t ever do anything tangible for the plebes.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Jul 1 2022 16:39 utc | 203
@187 too scents
Yes, thanks. Let’s say aerosols, particles sized for scattering in the wavelengths of interest… No idea if that is what is demonstrated in the video clip.
Posted by: ptb | Jul 1 2022 16:45 utc | 204
james @199–
Good morning james! Recall the audience for China and Russia–the Global South. The editor’s words are a Rallying Cry to the entire world. China is also promoting an anti-colonial narrative to remind the Global South of its history and well-founded reasons not to place any trust in the West. The West recently tried to flip that but the effort failed thanks to the many contradictions it contained along with an outright attempt to cancel the Colonial Era.
In the talk with Hudson yesterday, he offered an interesting reason based on his own experience of interaction with State Department people as to why they’re so badly misinformed–they only hire those with strong animosity toward USSR/Russia China and socialism, and thus we see the group think that reinforces their notion that they already know what they need to know. And that’s within the bureaucracy, not the appointees that get questioned and affirmed by the Senate. Add misleaders like Clinton and Pompeo to the mix, and it’s easy to understand why that government branch is imbecilic and complete ineffective now that other nations are standing up and saying No!
thanks karl and good morning to you too!
“they only hire those with strong animosity toward USSR/Russia China and socialism”…. i imagine there are a lot more potential recruits now! however, as you note – “it’s easy to understand why that government branch is imbecilic and completely ineffective now”.. true!! thanks again for your many posts and condensing of what you learn… i don’t have as much time to stay on top of it all at present! cheers..
Posted by: james | Jul 1 2022 17:00 utc | 206
The sooner the international community stops the US, the less damage it will cause. Opposing hegemony is not only a matter of international morality, but also a must-do for safeguarding legitimate interests.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 16:29 utc | 196
The Russians put forward a proposal for mutual security in December ’21, knowing full well USA/NATO would not even consider it, but it was in fact a reasonable proposal for peace, security and mutual development in Europe. Similarly the Chinese routinely put forward proposals towards mutual cooperation to ensure security and growth, knowing full well USA will reject those and start a ‘sanctions’ blockade against China.
What USA apparently fails to see is that in both cases, the demands made by Russia and China are non-negotiable, and they both have the means to force the changes they need. USA on the other hand does not have the ability to follow through on any of their threats except to nuke the world into oblivion. And given how well the rest of the US arsenal works, USA might not even have that capability.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 1 2022 17:00 utc | 207
Japan has tried hard to maintain its investments in Russian gas projects despite the illegal sanctions and other unfriendly acts it performs which has landed it on Russia’s Unfriendly Nation List, which will soon bring consequences as this item looks at “Sakhalin is Russian: Is Moscow kicking the West out of key energy projects?” As we all know from WW2, Japan has close to no domestic energy sources and relies on imports. Thus, it was an easy decision for it to invest in Russia’s Far East energy development projects. But as with the EU, Japan is also an Outlaw US Empire Colony and has no real sovereignty even when it comes to its energy supplies as we’ve seen with Germany.
Russia has tried to impress on a series of Japanese government administrations that its Colonial status renders it unfit to sign a Peace Treaty that would formally end WW2 and provide the basis for negotiations over the Kurile Islands because it lacks the sovereignty to do so. Yet, as with the EU, Japan’s administrations continue to escalate their belligerency not just at Russia, but at China and Korea–essentially all the nations that suffered from its WW2 actions are in some state of alarm over this change.
Here’re the stakes for Japan as detailed by the article:
“Japan has previously said it would not give up its interests in the Sakhalin-2 project, which is important for its energy security. Moscow earlier accused Japan of benefiting from its participation in the project while being an ‘unfriendly nation’ that joined the West in placing sanctions on Russia. It won’t be easy for Japan to withdraw from the project, experts point out. Replacing Russian LNG from Sakhalin-2 would reportedly cost Tokyo $15 billion, with the price tag for imports jumping 35% if Mitsui and Mitsubishi opt out. But now Russia could make the decision for Japan and redirect its imports to other nations, such as China, India, or Vietnam.”
It’s not mentioned, but Japan could save its position if it did what’s required to alter its Unfriendly Nation status. But that would mean violating the orders of its Master. IMO, Japan’s compradors are just that and will follow their orders to the great detriment of Japan’s national interests while attempting to blame Russia for their fealty.
By moving out of the Snake Island, the Russians took away the West’s claim of the wheat blockade, but also put the Ukraine in trouble, as the ships cannot get out of Odessa without demining the port and most part of Odessa sea line. As no war ships of any kind will be allowed around Odessa, once the place gets demined, Odessa is open for invasion. Well, you can’t eat the cake and have it.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 30 2022 20:42 utc | 49
There will be no sea based invasion of Odessa. Why, when there are better options with far lower casualty rates?
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 1 2022 17:20 utc | 209
Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 16:05 utc | 191
Germany is not going to die for Lithuania, or for the other 2 Baltic countries…
Well, IF “Germany” wants to live it’s going to require energy. The only “hope” that Germany has, one that the West was long aiming for (but Russia has thrown a wrench into the plan), is to take control of Russian energy. As we know, Germany has ZERO chance of this on its own, which means that this has to be a joint effort (NATO). Die NOT attacking Russia, or die BY attacking Russia.
If you view Lithuania as a doorway then you’ll be able to better see what it, Lithuania, means. It’s a way to get into an all-out war. Does Germany want to do this? Not necessarily. BUT, it’s being pushed, as is other NATO members, by the US. The ship is going down. Last gasp effort to maintain US hegemony. Pawns know thy place!
This isn’t necessarily a slam on Germany. Most all countries in the world are energy deficient (energy importers). ONLY three countries have the means of “surviving” for some time: Canada, Russia and the US. These three countries have energy and arable lands.
Posted by: Seer | Jul 1 2022 17:28 utc | 210
james @207–
These polling results tell a story all by themselves, “Almost Third of Americans Say They May Have to Take Up Arms Against Gov’t, Poll Shows”:
About 30% of Americans believe they may at some point have to take up arms against their government, according to a poll by the Policy Institute at the University of Chicago.
“And 28 percent of voters, including 37 percent who have guns in their homes, agree that ‘it may be necessary at some point soon for citizens to take up arms against the government’,” the poll said.
This viewpoint is shared by one in three Republicans and one in five Democrats.
In addition, the survey found that 49% feel more and more like strangers in their own country. [My Emphasis]
Those numbers will all increase going forward.
@Skiffer (184) Thanks for the clarification on Snake Island. I was misinformed.
Posted by: Rob | Jul 1 2022 18:56 utc | 212
@ karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 17:33 utc | 212
thanks karl… i don’t think the numbers in canada are anything like that, but i would like to be surprised on the upside!
Posted by: james | Jul 1 2022 19:11 utc | 213
Posted by: MD | Jul 1 2022 11:49 utc | 150
This is exactly what Martyanov has been saying: the West trained the Ukrainians – and that’s why they’re losing.
They should have stuck with their previous Soviet training.
As for that idiot talking about “netcentric warfare”, it happens to be Russia which is developing that technology, as Martyanov has pointed out with the networking of the SU-57 aircraft, where a flight of those jets can see each other’s sensors and activate each other’s weapons to attack targets.
Not to mention that those “10,000 new soldiers every four months” will be countered by 100,000 new casualties every four months – if not greater. That “re-constitution of the Ukraine army” BS is what Ritter was spouting a month ago.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 20:05 utc | 214
There will be no sea based invasion of Odessa. Why, when there are better options with far lower casualty rates?
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Jul 1 2022 17:20 utc | 210
————
There’s Odessa city and Odessa region (oblast). First, of course, there’d be a land connection to Pridnestrovia, blocking out Odessa from Ukraine. Most probably in the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023. Also, natural gas is needed in the Ukraine and in the West, and that’s going to be a weapon. Let’s speculate on that after July 21st, that is, whether the routine maintenance of Nord Stream would be over or they’d find some unknown problem.
Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 20:08 utc | 215
Posted by: rk | Jul 1 2022 14:06 utc | 170
How do you know its not the truth? you dont, so get lost yourself, dumbass
Posted by: Bloke from block 8 | Jul 1 2022 20:16 utc | 216
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 17:33 utc | 212
Unfortunately, despite the availability of schools and Youtube channels teaching small unit tactics and armed combat (I follow a lot of them), I suspect the percentage of US citizens who have any clue as to how to actually take up arms against a government are pretty small. Being heavily armed doesn’t mean being heavily trained. And despite the bravado the poll indicates, I suspect very few are that willing to do so. It’s on a par with what everyone says about American “mercenaries” in Ukraine – they’re mostly clueless. The “militia” groups in the US are of the same stock and most of them are heavily infiltrated by the FBI and Secret Service and ATF. In other words, they’re useless.
I had and still have extreme doubts as to the possibility of civil war or electorate uprising against the government, and even less of a successful one.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 20:19 utc | 217
@karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 16:36 utc | 201
I think a sea blockade does not yet qualify as an act of war, at least no more than a land blockade of traffic between parts of a nation. Of course, it cannot taken lightly, as a further step on an escalation ladder.
Also, it would be possible just to declare as counter sanctions forbidding every naval shipment of energy to the offending country (mind that Lithuania shithole is violating several international treaties). No insurance company would cover LNG or oil freight to such a country, no matter how such a declaration is regarded. No captain would steer his ship into a confrontation with subs, warplanes, warships, or missiles. Ok maybe some South Korean ..
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 1 2022 20:32 utc | 218
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 20:05 utc | 215
———————————————————
Scott Ritter had worked for his country, and after retiring worked again for his country in private capacity. He had even worked for the UN as a weapons inspector. He is shown on practically all Russian TV channels, especially on Zvezda, the military channel.
While the other “expert” had not worked a single day for Mother Russia, when in 1991, USSR collapsed, he had suddenly left with no country to call his own. A stranger in his born country Azerbaijan. No one knows about this expert from Baku in any media channels or in private Telegram channels. He is not even known in the alleged country of his birth Azerbaijan. Oh, anyway, you can continue to be his fan…after all, he lives in the USA.
Ah, the higher school (Uchilichsha) doesn’t exist since 03.07.1992, so anyone can claim studying there. But, if you are so keen to defend the guy, contact the archive department of Военно-Морское училище им. М.В. Фрунзе in St. Petersburg, Russia. Address: No.17 Lieutenant Schmidt embankment, St. Petersburg. Now, of course, that higher school had become an institute. Good luck!
Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 20:42 utc | 219
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 20:05 utc | 215
————————-
Каспийского Высшего Военно-морского Краснознаменного Училища им. С. М. Кирова расформировано (Указ Президента Азербайджанской Республики №28 от 3.07.1992 г.) и передано в подчинение МО Азербайджанской Республики.
Архив перевезен в г. Санкт-Петербург в Военно-Морское училище им. М.В. Фрунзе.
———-
Translation
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Caspian Higher Naval Red Banner School. S. M. Kirov was disbanded (Decree of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan No. 28 of 3.07.1992) and transferred to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
The archive was transported to St. Petersburg to the Naval School. M.V. Frunze.
Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 20:51 utc | 220
Posted by: Seer | Jul 1 2022 17:28 utc | 211
—————————————–
Lithuania is such a small country, and doesn’t have a real sea port, except Klaipeda. That too was given to Lithuania by Stalin. Anyway, Klaipeda can be blocked very easily.
The Port of Klaipeda is located in the south-western part of the Baltic Sea across the Klaipeda Strait. It is the northernmost ice-free port (even in the coldest winters) in the East Baltic. At present, the water area of the port (6.5 km2) covers almost the entire Klaipeda Strait. The length of the water area is approximately 11.5 km, and its width ranges between 3 m at the port gates in the north and 1350 m in the southern part of the Strait.
No, I don’t think Germany is going to die for Lithuania.
Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 21:00 utc | 221
@ Richard Steven Hack #215
This is exactly what Martyanov has been saying: the West trained the Ukrainians – and that’s why they’re losing.
They should have stuck with their previous Soviet training.
With their previous Soviet training, they lost (twice!) against the breakaway DLPRs with only minimal Russian support, forcing them to sign Minsk to gain a reprieve and re-arm. Well they could have used the reprieve to hammer out a lasting peace, but Nazis are gonna Nazi.
I saw your quote re. Wagner so I checked the Russian MoD on Telegram, no mentions of Wagner, ever. Intel Slava Z has 1 mention of them in June fighting I think in Popasnaya, apparently interchangeably with the Chechens in street battles. To be clear I’m not saying they aren’t there, I just had never seen any mention of them from official or semi-official Russian sources, I missed the few times they were named on Intel Slava Z. And like I said before, I saw some very bad Ukie propaganda trying to ‘prove’ they were fighting, pushed by a very aggressive troll on reddit IIRC.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jul 1 2022 21:34 utc | 222
Russia steals the thunder in ‘wheat war’
Posted by: james | Jul 1 2022 16:11 utc | 193
Putin’s words:
“We are not speaking about any deadlines. I never speak about them, because this is life, this is reality. It would be wrong to make things fit any framework, because, as I have already said, the issue concerns combat intensity, which is directly connected with possible losses. And we must think above all about saving our guys’ lives.”
Thanks, james.
Posted by: juliania | Jul 1 2022 22:01 utc | 223
“In the talk with Hudson yesterday, he opined in answer to my direct question on the matter that there’s no way other than rebellion to alter the Outlaw US Empire’s political-economy and return it to a normal, law-abiding nation. The grounds for such a rebellion are provided in the Declaration of Independence. And that’s not very helpful since most people have no idea those words exist.
And there you have the real reason why Russia is taking its time as the Outlaw US Empire slowly implodes from the weight of its own contradictions while showing the world it’s entirely unworthy of leading anything.”
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 16:29 utc | 197 [my bold]
But there is another way, karlof1, isn’t there? That is, as Putin himself has done, admittedly slowly, but with far-reaching intent, having been given access to a position of leadership thanks to Yeltsin’s recognition. That wasn’t done by an uprising of the Russian people – unless you consider that storming the Russian White House and then some long years of further decay and near annihilation by western ‘helpers’ to be that sort of necessary ‘revolt’.
We may deride the aging incompetency of Biden, but it seems to me there is a faint possibility. if he would only take it, that leadership could pass from him to someone of real stature. History doesn’t repeat, but it does sometimes rhyme.
C’mon Biden. Surely there is someone of say Nader’s integrity but a few years younger that could take on for the US the task Putin shouldered for Russia? I’d be ready to accept a move of such import to allow sainthood for Biden if it would achieve that needed transitional input. I know you are a little bemused about FDR but we still have a thread of his legacy that hasn’t gone down the tubes as yet. We need an ‘in’ person to take on the restoration – I’d support that in a heartbeat! Pots and pans at the ready!!!
Posted by: juliania | Jul 1 2022 22:16 utc | 224
Further to my thought at 225, perhaps we ought to consider the January farce that is currently under consideration as our very own US ‘rebellion’similar to Russia’s – sort of to move things along on the history rhyming road, been there done that.
I would love to skip the Yeltsin years and go right along on to Putin. Let it be!
Posted by: juliania | Jul 1 2022 22:30 utc | 225
In fact, the entire Trump ‘presidency’ – that was our rebellion!
Posted by: juliania | Jul 1 2022 22:46 utc | 226
The Dems were our Brits! (Playing devil’s advocate here – must be the heat, but there are still clouds about!)
Posted by: juliania | Jul 1 2022 23:13 utc | 227
juliania @225–
In 1993, Yeltsin waged war on his own Parliament stemming their revolt against his liaison with the Outlaw US Empire which was destroying Russia. Putin’s ascension to power was a complete aberration at the time and a very lucky–miraculous–event for humanity.
Posted by: Karl Sanchez | Jul 1 2022 23:39 utc | 228
MD | Jul 1 2022 11:49 utc | 150
Tom_12 | Jul 1 2022 13:23 utc | 163
The article cited in the Larch comment Yankee experts: 5 reasons why not only Ukraine, but also the United States will lose the war to Russia
appears to have this as at least one of the sources: THE OTHER BIG LESSONS THAT THE U.S. ARMY SHOULD LEARN FROM UKRAINE
It’s POV is from the other side of the looking glass.
Posted by: pogohere | Jul 2 2022 2:18 utc | 229
Kingsmeg | Jul 1 2022 21:34 utc | 223
Russian volunteers go to Chechnya for training and about 200 a week are flown to Donbas. I have only seen Kadyrov’s telegram channel mention them.
I saw a video of wagner in what looked a training exercise on some twitter or telegram channel.
Russia mod had put out the video and listed them as paratroops. Russian paratroops are in Ukraine. On the job training for all.
Wagner I think is the Russian volunteers. A bit of Russian or Chechen trolling.
Wagner appeared on the scene shortly after the first group of volunteers trained in Chechnya arrived in Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 2 2022 2:32 utc | 230
@ juliania | Jul 1 2022 22:01 utc | 224
thanks juliania… i too enjoy reading putins talks and words made public… i would like to know what he says in private!!
Posted by: james | Jul 2 2022 3:41 utc | 231
In today’s Google News Main Headlines. Can’t make it up… What kind of world we are living in???
As per BBC:
“Borsch soup in Ukraine added to Unesco endangered heritage list”
The UN’s cultural agency has added the cooking of borsch – a soup usually made with beetroot and potatoes – in Ukraine to its list of endangered intangible cultural heritage.
Unesco said the war in Ukraine had “threatened” the cooking of borsch.
“Victory in the war for borsch is ours!” Ukraine’s Culture Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62013362
@juliania #225
You said
We may deride the aging incompetency of Biden, but it seems to me there is a faint possibility. if he would only take it, that leadership could pass from him to someone of real stature. History doesn’t repeat, but it does sometimes rhyme.
I am presuming you mean in 2024?
Because “passing the baton” now means Kamala Harris…good God…
But even were you to presume 2024 – I think your notion is risible.
Putin had a political stature in 2008 unrivaled in any sovereign nation in the last generation, worldwide, which is why he could basically usher in Medvedev. His appointment in 2000 was by a Western kleptocrat that literally fired on his own parliament, so that’s not exactly a great comp either.
Biden does not control the Democrat party much less American politics by either prestige or other means.
I saw someone say that the Biden administration is at least partly run by HRC – because NSA Jake was her dirty ops advisor during her 2016 campaign even as HRC owns the State Department root and branch. The Clintons reach into the Democratic party via its finances is also unquestionable.
As such, I would bet money that HRC runs again in 2024.
And loses again to even were a 3 legged dog be her opponent.
Nor am I particularly impressed by Nader as a leader. He’s a great gadfly and consumer advocate – there is zero evidence that he could accomplish even as much as Trump did, even if somehow he magically became President.
Posted by: c1ue | Jul 2 2022 15:10 utc | 233
I would bet money that HRC runs again in 2024.
c1ue | Jul 2 2022 15:10 utc | 234
—
LOL! For all the difference it would make the Clintons would be better to run Chelsea.
Posted by: too scents | Jul 2 2022 15:32 utc | 234
JPMorgan Sees ‘Stratospheric’ $380 Oil on Worst-Case Russian Cut
ByJoe Carroll
July 1, 2022 at 2:59 PM CDT
Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts warned.
The Group of Seven nations are hammering out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russian oil in a bid to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. But given Moscow’s robust fiscal position, the nation can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the economy, JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.
For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous. A 3 million-barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices to $190, while the worst-case scenario of 5 million could mean “stratospheric” $380 crude, the analysts wrote.
“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the analysts wrote. “It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut
Posted by: DaffyDuct | Jul 2 2022 15:40 utc | 235
How to surge ==> https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/06/24/army-drops-requirement-high-school-diploma-amid-recruiting-crisis.html
Posted by: too scents | Jul 2 2022 15:46 utc | 236
Re 222: “No, I don’t think Germany is going to die for Lithuania.”
And especially not over Kaliningrad, which was Koenigsberg, and as German as it gets. It was the capital of the Teutonic Order after the loss of the Marienburg. (Maybe unlike our Polish friends,) I also don’t think anyone in Germany wants to revisit that chapter..
Posted by: C | Jul 2 2022 18:29 utc | 237
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 17:33 utc | 212
For those who might want to share the Poll results found in the article with those who are less open minded.
Link
My hunch is that things are worst than this poll indicates. When winter rolls around and they start the “Mask-Shot-Distance-Isolate Program” things will be even more polarized. The ever bigger bite on the home budged thanks to Bike Joe Xiden will simply get more extreme as time goes by.
The mechanism is the same as with the recruits in Ukraine, after a while you simply can not hide the fact that you are being treated worst than a slave.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Jul 3 2022 8:39 utc | 238
Putin’s ascension to power was a complete aberration at the time and a very lucky–miraculous–event for humanity.
Posted by: Karl Sanchez | Jul 1 2022 23:39 utc | 229
I’m with you on this one Karl. I don’t have a hope in hell of finding out the truth, but my hunch based simply on visuals and what happened later on is that Putin was simply extremely underrated by the Palace mandarines (J). Putin was trained to be a spy, hence not reveal much about what he is thinking or planning to do. Yeltsin was in trouble and needed to step down ASAP. Putin (start Dec. 1999) “looked” malleabel to give the “iron letter” and thereafter follow commands/instruction of the handlers. He did the first but not the second. Reaction to this was fast, August 2000 “Kursk” blows up. Did it throw Putin out of the “saddle” ? Hell no. In 2003 he jailed Khodorkovsky, thus showing ,to those who needed to see, who was running the Show in Russia.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Jul 3 2022 9:03 utc | 239