We have met the enemy and he is US.

Posted by: majoab | Jul 1 2022 3:43 utc | 104

re: We have met the enemy and he is US.
Posted by: majoab | Jul 1 2022 3:43 utc | 104
Thank you Mr. Pogo.

Posted by: JR | Jul 1 2022 4:10 utc | 106

@ uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 3:54 utc | 105
a fair chunk of Lithuanian land..
We talked about the Suwałki Gap previously here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jul 1 2022 4:59 utc | 108

Here is an interview that enables John Mearsheimer to clearly and comprehensively set out his recall of the history of idiot USA-NATO shenanigans that led to this war.
For those that seek a background snapshot of how the path led us into this terrible place.
From Jasmin Kosubek utoob channel for one hour in English.

John Mearsheimer is an internationally renowned geopolitics analyst known for his criticism of the US-american foreign policy establishment. He has written the book “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy” (2007) as well as “Why leaders Lie: The Truth About Lying in International Politics” (2011). In recent years, he has taken the minority view that the Ukraine crisis is the Wests fault, which he had put into words in an article published in Foreign Affairs back in 2014 when the crisis initially broke out. While Mearsheimer himself states that his views are not mainstream, he is still a popular guest on panels to debate the conventional wisdom of conflicts such as the Ukraine crisis. He states that while Ukraine is not a de jure member of NATO, Ukraine has been integrated into the framework as a de facto member. This would be considered a threat to Russia’s national interest, which is why it came to no surprise that the Russian leader would go to great length to wreck Ukraine, to avoid it becoming a western bulwark on Russia’s border.
Mearsheimer goes into detail how this crisis started back in 2008 at the Bucharest NATO summit, where both Georgia and Ukraine were invited to become part of the military alliance. He also explains why nuclear threat is on the table and why we need to shut this war down as fast as we can.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 5:04 utc | 110

Don Bacon #108
“We talked about the Suwałki Gap previously here”
I understand the place Sewalki Gap is within a mountain range with multiple rivers and lakes and appears to have no direct constructed road of any significance let alone simple widening capability. I get that it is a place name rather than an access north to south. An indicative map.
I looked at existing Lithuanian road networks that might form a reasonably direct corridor already constructed that would allow for rapid acquisition to enable unrestricted road transport. Rail links directly between Belarus and Kaliningrad are missing in the south eastern expanse of Lithuania.
One could of course annex the capital city and get the rail link but I doubt that would be on any agenda.
This from wikiped:

The Suwałki Gap is a sparsely populated region in the north-eastern corner of Poland, in Podlaskie Voivodeship. This hilly area, one of the coldest in Poland,[1] is located on the western margins of the East European Plain. It is crossed by numerous river valleys and deep lakes (such as Hańcza and Wigry), and its vast swathes are covered by thick forests (including the Augustów Primeval Forest) and marshes, such as those in the Biebrza National Park.[2][3] To its west lies another lake district known as Masuria. The area is relatively poorly developed – there is little industry besides forestry-related facilities, the road network is sparse and the nearest large airport is located several hundred kilometres away;[3][4][5] only two major roads (with at least one lane in each direction) and one rail line link Poland with Lithuania.[6][7] The area is home to some ethnic minorities, particularly the Ukrainians, the Lithuanians (close to the border with Lithuania) as well as the Russians, but they are not very numerous on the Polish side.[2][8]

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 5:26 utc | 112

That should be the South Western expanse of Lith…

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 5:29 utc | 114

A contribution to the Suwalki Gap discussion…from Wikipedia which has an entry:
Suwałki Gap
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwa%C5%82ki_Gap
I have no opinion.

Civilian interest
Russian corridor
The first time a special corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus (planned to go via Poland) was discussed during a 1990 meeting between Yuri Shemonov, a senior official in Kaliningrad Oblast, and Nikolai Ryzhkov and Mikhail Gorbachev, Premier and President of the Soviet Union, respectively. While Ryzhkov was supportive of the idea, Gorbachev vetoed the proposal, urging the other two men to “stop spreading panic”.[13] After the Soviet Union fell apart, Kaliningrad was cut off from Russia, thus the Russians sought to secure a land transit route from the exclave to mainland Russia through Belarus. After some initial preparations, including signing the treaty which obliged Poland and Russia to open a border crossing near Gołdap, the Russian government announced their intention to build a special “communication corridor” between the checkpoint and Grodno in Belarus, justifying the decision by the region’s close economic ties with the country. Russia, which communicated the idea to the Polish side in 1994, additionally sought to bypass Lithuania, with which it had strained diplomatic relations.[14] Initially, the idea sparked little interest,[14] but extensive discussions came in 1996, when Boris Yeltsin, President of Russia, declared he would negotiate with the Polish side to seek permission to build a motorway, citing high transit costs via Lithuania.[15]
The top Polish government officials rejected the proposal.[16] Among the main reasons was the fact that among Poles, the proposal sounded too much like the German request for an extraterritorial link through the Polish Corridor just prior to its 1939 invasion of Poland, and was thus seen as toxic.[17][18] This feeling was amplified by the persistent usage of the word “corridor” among Russian officials.[19][20] Aleksander Kwaśniewski, then-president of Poland, sounded concerns about the environmental impact of the investment,[15] while some politicians from then ruling coalition (SLD-PSL) argued that the corridor would cause a deterioration of diplomatic relations between Poland and Lithuania.[14][21] There have been reports that Suwałki Voivodeship started talks about the corridor to alleviate its economic problems and even signed an agreement with Grodno Region authorities to promote its construction via a border crossing in Lipszczany,[13][21] but Cezary Cieślukowski [pl], then-voivode of Suwałki who was seen by the media as supportive of the idea, denied having ever endorsed the proposal, and no proof for that (such as plans or cost estimates) was found in an internal party investigation.[14] When GDDKiA, the Polish agency responsible for the maintenance of main roads, updated its plans for the expressway network in 1996, the proposed link was nowhere to be found.[22]
The topic returned in 2001-2002, when Poland and Lithuania were negotiating their accession to the European Union. Russian citizens in Kaliningrad were facing the prospect of having to use passports and apply for visas to cross the border of the new countries of the European Union, which sparked outrage in the Russian press. Russia therefore suggested that the European Commission grant a right to a 12-hour free transit for the citizens of the oblast through special corridors in Poland and Lithuania, but this proposal was rejected.[23] Another proposal, with sealed trains, also failed to gain traction; it was ultimately agreed to introduce special permits for Russian citizens travelling to/from Kaliningrad Oblast for transit through Lithuania (but not Poland),[20] known as Facilitated Rail Transit Document (FRTD) and a Facilitated Transit Document (FTD) for rail and road trips, respectively.[24]
EU civilian infrastructure
Main article: Via Baltica
Map of planned expressways in Poland, one of which is highlighted
State of construction of expressway S61 in Poland, as of 22 May 2022 (green: open; red: under construction)
A strategic communication artery, known in the international E-road network as E67 or as Via Baltica (expressway S61 on the Polish side and A5 highway on the Lithuanian part), passes through the Suwałki Gap.[25] It is part of the North Sea-Baltic Corridor (previously the Baltic-Adriatic Corridor),[26] one of the core routes of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) that connects Finland and the Baltic states with the rest of Europe.[27] The Polish expressway is currently completed or under active construction (with the exception of a fragment of the Łomża bypass); the opening of most of the yet-unopened segments is expected by 2023,[28] and the road is planned to be finished by 2024.[29] On the Lithuanian side, the construction of A5 highway to the border is in early stages, with the design contracts awarded in 2020-2021. The section of the motorway close to the Suwałki Gap is expected to be completed by late 2025.[30]
The Suwałki Gap also serves as an important constraint on the civilian airspace since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Due to the sanctions against Russia and Belarus, the closure of civilian airspace by Belarus, and then retaliatory sanctions by Russia, the only feasible way for the civilian planes to fly from the Baltic states or Finland south is through the Suwałki Gap. It is also the route for the only high voltage line (the LitPol Link) and the only railway (single-track, non-electrified) linking the Baltic states with the rest of the European Union. The rail line only reaches Kaunas, as Lithuania and Poland operate different track gauges – the Baltic states generally use the Russian gauge, while the vast majority of Polish rolling stock is adapted to the standard gauge.[31] The Gas Interconnection Poland–Lithuania, the only terrestrial link between the Baltic and Finnish natural gas pipeline system and that of the rest of the European Union (the reason it was recognised as a Project of Common Interest by EU authorities), was opened on 1 May 2022.[32]
Military considerations
History
Frontlines on 18 February 1915, during the Second Battle of the Masurian Lakes, waged in the Suwałki Gap area
Military vehicles on the road
NATO armoured vehicles seen going through the former Budzisko-Kalvarija border crossing into Lithuania as part of Operation Dragoon Ride, 2015
Long before the Suwałki Gap became of concern to NATO, several army battles or operations occurred on the terrain. For example, during Napoleon’s war in Russia, part of his army, which crossed into the country from the Duchy of Warsaw, used the Suwałki Gap as a launching pad for the invasion and, by the beginning of 1813, when the remnants of his army retreated, it crossed the gap from Kaunas towards Warsaw. Both battles of the Masurian Lakes during World War I passed or were directly waged on the territory. During the invasion of Poland, which started World War II, most of the action skirted the area, while in 1944, the Red Army simply advanced into East Prussia and no major battle occurred in the area.[7]
Poland and Lithuania joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in 1999 and 2004, respectively. On the one hand, this meant that the Kaliningrad exclave was surrounded by NATO states, but on the other, this created a choke point for the military alliance as all troops supplied by land must pass through the Suwałki Gap. In the event of its capture, the Baltic states would be surrounded by Russia, Russian-controlled territories, and Belarus, a Russian ally.[33] Even if Belarus or Russia are not physically present in the corridor, it is narrow enough for the short-range rockets stationed in either country to target any military supplies coming through the corridor, while alternative routes of delivery, i.e. by sea or air, are also threatened by the anti-air and anti-ship missiles stationed in Kaliningrad Oblast.[34][35] Due to its strategic importance for NATO and the Baltic states, it has been described as one of NATO’s hot spots,[2] its “Achilles’ heel”[36] and dubbed the modern version of the Fulda Gap.[37][38][39][40]
Initially, this vulnerability was of relatively little concern as, throughout most of the 1990s, Russia was stuck in a deep depression, which necessitated large-scale cuts to the country’s military budget.[18] Even though the army was of significant size, it was poorly equipped and had low military capabilities.[41] Additionally, Russia–NATO relations were more cordial then, as Russia was not openly hostile to NATO, which was affirmed while signing the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security [de], and it was thought that Russia would eventually become a pacifist democracy, decreasing its military and nuclear presence.[42][b] NATO’s commitment not to build any permanent bases beyond the Oder river therefore seemed reasonable.[37]

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 5:35 utc | 116

This article from Military Review discusses the application of cluster bombs in the event of a Russian attack through the Suwalki Gap:
The Suwalki Gap
A Proving Ground for Cluster Munitions
Capt. Gregory Fetterman, U.S. Army
July-August 2018
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2018/Fetterman-Suwalki/

Similar to the Fulda Gap before it, the Suwalki Gap is both strategically located and militarily vulnerable.28 It lies in the northeast corner of Poland in a marshy, lightly populated lowland that straddles the sixty-mile border of Poland and Lithuania. The narrow pass of land separates Kaliningrad, Russia’s only Baltic port that does not freeze in the winter, from Russia’s ally, Belarus. The region also contains the main rail link between Kaliningrad and Russia, which runs just north of the gap and relies on a tenuous short-term agreement with an apprehensive Lithuania. Russia’s ability to bridge this gap would allow an unimpeded all-season direct land route from the Baltic Sea to Moscow, significantly improving Russia’s ability to control the Baltic region and gain a logistical advantage over NATO countries. It would also cut off Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from the rest of their NATO allies, preventing these countries from receiving reinforcements should a Russian attack occur. This area keeps Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, until recently the commander of U.S. Army Europe, awake at night.29
Russia’s military advantage in the region also makes the Suwalki Gap an appealing target. The Kremlin is spending approximately $313 billion on defense upgrades to its military, including two new divisions in its western region.30 In 2015, Russia began increasing its military presence in Kaliningrad, making it one of Europe’s most militarized places.31 Before Zapad 17, a large-scale Russian military exercise that involved, by NATO estimates, upward of 100,000 Russian and Belarussian service members throughout Western Russia, Belarus, and Kaliningrad, the International Centre for Defence Studies estimated Russia had 57,500 troops in its Western Military District and another 11,000 stationed in Kaliningrad.32 It also has artillery forces that can match U.S. artillery in firepower, a formidable layered air defense force, and two air bases (Chernyakhovsk and Donskoye) located in Kaliningrad that house S-400 and S-300 air defense systems, a variety of fighters, strike aircraft, and more than 10,000 troops.33 These forces create significant risks for U.S. aircraft and would turn the region into a de facto no-fly zone.34
Contrast Russian forces with those of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, whose combined size equals about 28,000 lightly armed troops with little air or sea fighting capability and little armor.35 Though NATO has troops stationed in these Baltic States, a study by the RAND Corporation found a comparison of NATO forces to Russian forces to dramatically favor Russia.36 Factors such as overwhelming tactical and operational fires superiority, numerical armor superiority, a lack of adequate NATO firepower, and Russia’s close proximity and ease of access into the Baltic countries indicate that current NATO forces are insufficient to defend against a hypothetical Russian attack.37

He then goes on to discuss the use of cluster munitions as a counterbalance.

The Suwalki Gap dilemma presents a compelling case for the use of cluster munitions. Russia, a peer nation, stands at the steps of a friendly country with superior numbers of troops and armor—and with greater access and mobility to the battlefield than other NATO forces. U.S. forces would be forced to maximize their limited capabilities defending the Suwalki Gap until fellow nations could mobilize and reinforce their efforts in what would likely become a tough artillery fight.40 Cluster munitions would do precisely that: maximize a force’s limited firepower by saturating an area with armor-piercing munitions produced from a limited number of artillery platforms. These munitions would reduce the amount of submunitions required to have the same effects against a Russian invasion—an important factor when facing numerically superior forces. They would also allow the United States to fight on the same terms as Russia, who is not a signatory to the CCM and has shown its willingness in recent conflicts (Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria) to use cluster munitions.41

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 5:51 utc | 118

Just launched a new op-ed: “The war in Ukraine, and the future of Europe”. The key message is that the EU faces a dilemma. The choice is to break with Washington and join Eurasia, or perish. See:
https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2022/07/01/de-oorlog-in-oekraine-en-de-toekomst-van-europa/
and hit the Google translate box in the right upper corner. Welcome to post a reaction under the article.

Posted by: Paul-Robert | Jul 1 2022 6:21 utc | 120

The only reason to own it is to put a retirement home on it …
by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 4:59 utc | 107
—
Snake Island would make an excellent place for a prison, a-la Alcatraz. Filling it with PoWs would make it much more defensible.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2022 6:47 utc | 122

Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2022 6:47 utc | 122
Couldn’t get too many on there, except by packing them in, say, 4 to a cell. Might get a few thousand that way.
I figure at 415 square feet per prisoner (the average for state prisons), and 1,800,000 square feet on the island (I let Google do the math), you could get around 4,337 prisoners – minus support space, of course. Call it 4,000.
Alcatraz was 960,000 square feet, and it housed 155 staff and had a capacity of 312 prisoners. So double those numbers might be workable. Call it a thousand.
But then the expense of shipping in food by ship to feed them probably would make it uneconomical for that purpose.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 7:23 utc | 124

Ukraine distances itself from her ambassadors statement:
Posted by: Andreas | Jul 1 2022 7:20 utc | 123
Distancing itself doesn’t change anything. For the moment, it is “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” is with the Poles, but the Wolin massacre is not forgotten and will never be forgotten. The Ukrainians were always considered as cheap labour in Poland. The sudden “love” for Ukrainians won’t stay for long there. Already people are angry about the price hikes. Sure, the Poles always can blame Putin for all their problems, but Wolin will not be forgotten. One day, Poland will go against Ukraine…again.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 7:44 utc | 126

As mentioned above, Snake “island”, actually a rock, belongs to Romania but there is always a ranking of US slaves. Romania is below Ukr they simply lost the island years ago.
Romania is also being prepared for many years to lose part or all Transylvania to Hungary but current events delayed it for a while. Hungary invests a lot there, buys a lot of land, they stimulate separatist ideas. RO government does not invest in anything and does not protest. With the even stronger poverty that will hit Romania soon, in just a few more years people will actually start to want to be in Hungary. It seems gas in Romania is 3x more expensive and electricity 2x compared to last year. Freedom gas could jump to 4-5x in winter.
Germany also ranks below Ukr in the slave ranking and this explains why the Offended Sausage wasn’t offended. Yesterday Germans were called idiots and, again, no problem

Posted by: rk | Jul 1 2022 7:51 utc | 128

For those interested in a long yarn-up on Ukraine and Jacob Dreizin here is a good 2 hour session with host Viva Frei along with Robert Barnes.
Jacob gives a swift background of himself and they dig in to the dirt right away.
This is a good background discussion on how we arrived with this mess and the consequences from their pov.
Thanks RSH for the material on Suwalki Gap, yes geographically it seems easier to build a new N-S road via Poland but right now the casus belli is with Lithuania and why snatch a bit of Poland and wind them up any further. IMO the Lithuanians are gonna need a lot of goose down feathers and charcoal blocks this coming winter 😉
As for stand off weapons the small gaps in the N-S range that have rail and road traverses are likely to be shut down as quick as a Russian fart if hostilities erupt. That would impair Lithuania very fast. How many cannons do they have again? If the French send a warship to Lithuania I imagine some Russian wag will tag “moskva” on a missile and send the message to the French. Ditto the UK. This could yet get way too hot to handle if the macho team don’t chill out. Anyway who would go to war for Lithuania? yes yes the englanders…. :/

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 8:24 utc | 130

@ Worried Guesy #72
I suggest you read the article entitled “ Defending the arch of democracy “ on the Royal United Services Institute site.
http://www.rusi.org
This institute was founded by the Duke of Wellington of the U.K. in the early 19th century and is the oldest military think tank/analyst forum in the world.
In the article, they note that the west has so depleted it’s industrial base, that it cannot possibly compete with Russia in arms and ammunition production. For example, In 100 days Russia produced more missiles than the U.S. does in a year.
Then there is also the fact that China is standing behing Moscow. The SMO is not only draining Ukraine’s weapons inventory, but the western powers as well. Several countries have already announced it will take years to replenish their weapons stocks.
Russia can and is taking on the west and from their squealing, they don’t like it one bit.

Posted by: Beibdnn | Jul 1 2022 8:42 utc | 132

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 8:24 utc | 130
——————————————————
Lithuania has two major sea ports, Klaipeda and Butunge. Both can be blocked quite easily. Klaipeda has only one entrance from the lagoon. Also, Kaliningrad can land on it from the lagoon too. Butunge is actually an oil terminal, not a maritime port. Anyway, it would be much easy to take all 3 Baltic states in one shot.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 8:47 utc | 134

Benny is often high, just like Bojo and Zelly. Or his parents are brothers. The video with those Russian pranksters is gold and I hope to see the uncesored version some day

Posted by: rk | Jul 1 2022 9:04 utc | 136

It looks like Turkey will now up its persecution of the Kurds in Turkey and Northern Syria, now that Sweden and Finland have pulled back on critcising Turkish treatment of them, and in exchange the way has been cleared for both countries to join Nato.
Strange how Nato and the West can easily turn a blind eye to the persecution of the Kurds, but screams out loud when false flag attacks on Ukrainian citizens are reported by the Ukrainian authorities. The hypocrisy from the West is staggering to say the least.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 1 2022 9:31 utc | 138

And why shouldn’t Russia use Western UN laws to its own advantage to protect its people.
“Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday that Russia was in strict compliance with the UN charter when it used its right for self-defense and started the military operation to protect Donbass.
“In strict compliance with the basic values of the UN Charter, in accordance with Article 51 of the charter of the organization, Russia exercised the inalienable right to self-defense,” he said in a speech at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum. Medvedev said a notification of that was sent to the UN secretary general and to the UN Security Council. ”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 1 2022 9:36 utc | 140

A person with a positive outlook in Kharkov…https://youtu.be/srG1Nqcz4CU

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 9:51 utc | 142

Having a bit of a time for a song on the way to Lysichansk…https://youtu.be/-bXLzBJjdXs

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 10:06 utc | 144

… wanted to give a opnion how all this NATO bullshit has happened here.
Posted by: Kurki | Jun 30 2022 21:48 utc | 61
Great post, very interesting perspective on Finnish domestic politics w.r.t. NATO, many thanks.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2022 10:55 utc | 146

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine as of 12.00 on July 1, 2022
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue their successful offensive in the area of Lisichansk. Over the past three days, the Lisichansk oil refinery, the Matrosskaya mine, the Gelatin Plant, and the Topolevka settlement have been taken under control. The Allied forces went directly to Lisichansk.
The Ukrainian army is suffering heavy losses in this area. Only in the village of VERKHNEKAMENKA, the enemy lost more than 120 people killed in a day, and in VERKHNEKAMENSK – 70.
The failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield provoke an increase in the number of deserters and evaders from participating in hostilities. There is an unorganized departure of individual units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Lisichansk.
The command in every possible way hides the facts of understaffing of units. Thus, in one of the battalions of the 17th Tank Brigade operating in the area of the settlement of NOVAYA POLTAVKA of the Donetsk People’s Republic, no more than 20% of the personnel of the regular strength remained in service.
At the same time, the Kiev regime found “extreme” for the military failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the next “cauldron” in the Donbass.
Thus, the second department of the Department of the State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine in the city of Kramatorsk opened criminal cases against the command and 171 soldiers of the 42 battalion of the 57 motorized infantry brigade who defended in the “Gorsky Boiler”. These servicemen were detained and placed in a temporary detention facility in the city of KRAMATORSK.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to strike military targets on the territory of Ukraine.
High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed two control points, five ammunition depots in the areas of the settlements of IVANO-Darievka, SEVERSK of the Donetsk People’s Republic, BELOGOROVKA of the Luhansk People’s Republic, NIKOLAEV, LEPETIKHA of the Mykolaiv region, as well as manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 26 districts.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, two platoons of multiple rocket launchers and two artillery platoons in the LESOVKA, SELIDOVO and NETAYLOVO areas, which were shelling settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic, were hit by high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery hit: 32 control points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a radar station for detecting air targets in the KATRANK area of the Odessa region, three ammunition depots in the DISPUTED area of the Donetsk People’s Republic, as well as manpower and military equipment in 297 districts.
Two Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force were shot down by air defense means in the areas of the settlements of Barvenkovo and Kurulka, Kharkiv region.
Also, 11 unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down in the areas of PETROVENKA, BERESTOVE of the Donetsk People’s Republic, BRAZHKOVKA, VELIKIYE KHUTORA, STAROVEROVKA, VESELOYE, BAYRAK, HETMANOVKA, IVANCHUKOVKA, PEREMOGA of the Kharkiv region, PEREMOZHNAYA of the Zaporozhye region.
Eight multiple rocket launchers were intercepted in the areas of Nikolskoye, Kharkiv region, Stakhanov, Luhansk People’s Republic and Pervomaisk, Donetsk People’s Republic.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 226 aircraft, 134 helicopters, 1,411 unmanned aerial vehicles, 353 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,873 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 699 multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles, 3,067 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 3,948 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

Posted by: nona | Jul 1 2022 11:20 utc | 148

Via REMINISCENCE OF THE FUTURE comment by LarchMonster445
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/06/some-off-cuff-remarks.html?m=1
Yankee experts: 5 reasons why not only Ukraine, but also the United States will lose the war to Russia
School of Advanced International StudiesJohn Hopkins University (SAIS) and the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies (Philip Merrill CSS), the leading overseas institutions for the analysis of military conflicts, also came to this conclusion. According to these think tanks, the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia can radically change the American understanding of conflicts and thereby radically change the future of the Pentagon.
“The fighting in Ukraine has revealed at least five lessons that the US Army needs to learn in order to adequately prepare for new wars,” the SAIS and Philip Merrill CSS professorship notes. Today, it means that the United States is not even ready for a non-nuclear war with Russia.
First, “there’s nowhere to hide.” But how cool it was, for example, in Iraq, and in Afghanistan, too. On the” front”, US soldiers remotely destroyed the enemy of the model of the XX century, and in the rear, even in the near, they calmly prepared in complete safety another operation to eliminate, again remotely, the enemy’s manpower.
And now the goals in Ukraine have turned into bright butterflies pinned to the world bulletin board. “Iskander”, “Caliber”, “Onyx”, X-22-all this deprives the APU and its curators of any attempts to adapt to the new conditions. In addition, it turned out that the Russians also have night vision devices, which for decades gave an undeniable advantage to the Yankees. More recently, any night operation was a meat grinder of a helpless enemy. Now, ” a transparent battlefield creates huge problems for the US Army.”
Secondly, overseas experts actually recognized that the United States faces the most difficult difficulties in delivering weapons to the front line in Nezalezhnaya. Stars and Stripes Lieutenant General David Barno and Professor SAISNora Bensael writes, ” U.S. army units rely critically on complex logistics that pass through foreign bases and are delivered via long transport corridors, often using unsecured commercial supply chains.”
In their opinion, the Russian Armed Forces see this vast support network as nothing more than a terrifying reality for American military planners. Today, all the forces of the NATO logistics vehicle are aimed at delivering small amounts of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the result is close to zero.
Third, the Americans will have to part with helicopters. Now, by the way, in the US Army there are about 3.5 thousand rotorcraft, which proved to be excellent in the war with the enemy, who does not have effective air defense. Now” there is no such possibility ” — General David Barno admitted that Russian MANPADS and mobile air defense systems put an end to the star-spangled turntables.
On the one hand, the conflict in Ukraine has virtually nullified the effectiveness of helicopters, and on the other hand, they still have no alternative in the rapid delivery or evacuation of manpower. But this is still half the trouble, the Yankees will not be able to provide an advantage in the sky, despite the “best fighters in the world”.
No, Barno does not directly admit that our air defense systems see the F-35,but believes “the same capabilities that threaten helicopters are deadly to American aircraft ,which” fly slower than the old Cold War Air Force attack aircraft.” For example, the Yankees wrote off the “flying gun” A-10 for one simple reason: because of its slow speed, it has become defenseless against modern Russian man-portable anti-aircraft missiles. And the new “polunevidimka” also can not boast of speed.
The picture is drawn quite bleak. Manpower and ammunition will have to be delivered by armored vehicles, although earlier it was believed that cargo drones and robot loaders would cope with this work. But they will be shot down in the first sortie, if the front line changes cautiously, as it happens on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Fourth, SAIS and Philip Merrill CSS write in black and white: “What has largely gone unnoticed by the media and most military observers is the fact that a wide range of American troops were quietly deployed in Ukraine after 2014 to create the current Ukrainian Armed Forces. These efforts included both standard American training and training in unconventional special operations tactics.”
And the Yankees, according to Barno, taught the Ukrainians the use of modern American weapons and the professionalization of officers and sergeants. And in general, the SBU and GUR are the brainchild of Major General David Baldwin, whose phone is still red-hot from calls from Ukrainian high-ranking state security officers.
At the first stage of the special operation, the Americans thought that they had achieved success in training the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which gave hope for help not only near Kiev, but also in the Donbass, and even in the Crimea. The United States even called the Ukrainian armed forces the best army in Europe, after which Zelensky refused the Istanbul peace treaty.
This unforgivable and gross mistake of American analysts led to the fact that three months later Kiev is suffering the heaviest military and territorial losses, whereas in March concessions to Moscow would have been formal in nature.
From today’s perspective, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the capital Nezalezhnaya is seen from a different perspective and looks more like a trap. Moscow not only managed to lure the Ukrainian cadre army to the Donbass and bleed it dry there, but also imposed a new agenda for negotiations.
This means that the Yankees need to raise to a higher level not only the training of US soldiers and officers, but also improve the star-spangled intelligence, which completely framed Zelensky.
Fifth, ” the conflict in Ukraine is the first large-scale non-nuclear battle of the XXI century, when two advanced armies face each other,” experts from SAIS and Philip Merrill CSS state. They agree with David Johnson, a leading RAND analyst, who said: “The US military cannot claim that it would do a better job than the Russian military if their roles were reversed.”
But now, given the new reality that has emerged on the Ukrainian battlefield, the issue of discipline and morale, which began to fall in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is being raised. The American army is already the leader in peacetime suicides, so it’s scary to imagine what kind of morale the stars and stripes would be in, fighting the Russians without air support and with a meager supply of ammunition and equipment.
https://svpressa.ru/war21/a…

Posted by: MD | Jul 1 2022 11:49 utc | 150

Fog of war…A Russian attack has also killed another 17 people in an apartment complex in Odessa. And dozens of tons of grain have been destroyed, according to Ukrainian sources. Etc. Probably this has to do with the “retreat” from Snake Island.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jul 1 2022 12:20 utc | 152

Posted by: MD | Jul 1 2022 11:49 utc | 150
———————————————-
It is not at all easy to learn how to fight Russia by the Americans, because to do that, one has to be born in Russia, schooled in Russia…and think like a Russian…and dream like a Russian…

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 12:29 utc | 154

Usually, the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles fall on their own buildings…

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 12:35 utc | 156

@ostro | Jul 1 2022 12:49 utc | 158
—
ECB meets to set interest rates 21 July.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2022 13:01 utc | 158

@Skiffer | Jul 1 2022 13:07 utc | 160
—
The Odessa grain market does not seem to be particularly transparent.
https://uga.ua/en/members-and-partners/

Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2022 13:12 utc | 160

https://svpressa.ru/war21/a…
Posted by: MD | Jul 1 2022 11:49 utc | 150
This is the link at the bottom of our comment
https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/338767/
But I would argue that all that is said should be known. Fighting a top level military is not the same as Afghanistan or Iraq. The use of night vision and the advantages of drones should not require “rethinking” of military strategy. There is enough data prior to SMO showing what a game changer it is. This technology makes it very hard to hide from an opponent which changes the battle field significantly. The Stingers in Afghanistan showed how significantly they can change the relative strength of David versus Goliath.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Jul 1 2022 13:23 utc | 162

Of course the nazi interest in the island is equally inexplicable from my point of view.
It doesn’t even have any snakes… 🙂
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 30 2022 19:07 utc | 30
The RF doesn’t want to stay on the rock of serpents for the same reason that the Nazis can’t stay there either; it is almost undefendable. It has no value to the RF unless, or until, the RF takes control of Odessa and the surrounding area. The new weapons that the US and NATO are providing to the AFU will make the rock a turkey shoot. But the same applies to the Nazis who seem to have a fetish for the rock. The Russian navy will knock out any attempt by the Nazis to establish a base on the rock.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Jul 1 2022 13:46 utc | 164

Excerpts from an active duty Russian special forces officer (remove the spaces to use the url):
https://telegra . ph/Uproshchenchestvo-na-vojne-06-27

Many units of Ukraine, according to available information, have not yet been put into battle and are part of groups in large cities (Kiev, Dnipro, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkiv). Some of them received combat experience in battles with Russian units at the end of February and in March. And we must honestly admit that this experience was largely positive for the Ukrainian side. This was due to the advantage of our enemy in information, control and communication, the three pillars of the modern concept of warfare. That is, we conceded first of all from the point of view of military intelligence. Well, our opponent has no motivation to occupy – he believes that he is defending his territory. Thus, in the initial phase of the SVO, we lost in two key components: intelligence and motivation, and also allowed the enemy to get a positive experience.
Currently, a planned intensive preparation of reserves is underway in the west of Ukraine. This training is carried out within the framework of a new “network-centric” concept of warfare and involves the use of the most advanced tactical algorithms using the latest weapons and technical means. NATO calls this concept: “Army Multi Domain Operation” or “Network-Centric Warfare”. Recently, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in an interview with a BBC correspondent, said that British army servicemen and employees of British PMCs will train 10,000 Ukrainian army soldiers every 120 days. That is, they are ready to implement training programs designed for 4 months of intensive training.
As a result of the implementation of such a plan, the enemy will receive 10,000 new recruits every 4 months, armed with the most modern models of military equipment and possessing sufficiently high professional competencies. This is a strategic decision due to the ability of the enemy (or rather his curators from the United States and Great Britain) to plan so far in the current situation, even despite the urgent need to implement tactical decisions “here and now” due to the difficult situation of Ukrainian units in the Donbas. That is, the enemy in difficult conditions finds opportunities and resources not only in tactics, but also in strategy.

Posted by: Bloke from block 8 | Jul 1 2022 13:50 utc | 166

Well, well, well Such back-room machinations make NATO look like more of a protection racket than a community of values.

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 13:57 utc | 168

2 random items
(1) smoke machines in Crimea
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/17990
Surprised we haven’t seen a lot more of this in the battlefield videos, actually
(2) Finland supposedly says no to Turkey… uh oh…
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/17980

Posted by: ptb | Jul 1 2022 14:08 utc | 170

Odessa today. Calm and beautiful. https://youtu.be/AiqGiXSYe-M
What’d happen to it, when the war comes in?

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 14:34 utc | 172

Mariupol being rebuild. https://youtu.be/2xPaFxR_jxE

Posted by: ostro | Jul 1 2022 14:49 utc | 174

According to the spiegel Lithuania is disciplined, Germany pays the EU bill:
RT-INO in russian

Russia will be allowed to transit sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad, but only in the volumes that were supplied before the start of the special operation in Ukraine.
Such a measure is designed to prevent the export of Russian products to other countries through Kaliningrad in circumvention of EU sanctions. Exactly how much Russia will be allowed to import into the exclave in the future will have to be determined on the basis of Lithuanian customs documents of recent years.
On the other hand, the topic of Kaliningrad was briefly discussed at a meeting of EU permanent representatives on the fourth sanctions package in March. At that time, it was not yet assumed that transit between Russia and its exclave could be affected by sanctions. According to the European Commission, given the intensity of the general political situation, it has now managed to find an adequate interpretation of the decision on sanctions.
Since June 18, the Germans have been putting pressure on the European Commission so that Kaliningrad does not fall under sanctions,” said a Lithuanian official familiar with the negotiations. Now Lithuania is wondering whether the Bundeswehr troops stationed on its territory as part of the NATO mission are ready to protect the country

Posted by: gary | Jul 1 2022 14:51 utc | 176

@Bloke from block 8 #166
So Ukraine will receive, every 4 months, replacements for the soldiers it is losing every 3 weeks (or less).
That must be Western military math.

Posted by: c1ue | Jul 1 2022 15:04 utc | 178

but this kind-of says it all
https://nitter.net/JavierBlas/status/1542786027194130432#m
(feel free to skip the bloomberg piece)

Posted by: ptb | Jul 1 2022 15:17 utc | 180

The Kurds are apparently slow learners.
Posted by: c1ue | Jul 1 2022 15:01 utc | 177
For all I care, once they cast their lot with Uncle Sam they can burn in atomic fire, not my fucking problem 🙂
And I have read Ocalan.

Posted by: Arganthonios | Jul 1 2022 15:29 utc | 182

magically *stop* instantly

Posted by: ptb | Jul 1 2022 15:32 utc | 184

Since June 18, the Germans have been putting pressure on the European Commission so that Kaliningrad does not fall under sanctions,” said a Lithuanian official familiar with the negotiations. Now Lithuania is wondering whether the Bundeswehr troops stationed on its territory as part of the NATO mission are ready to protect the country
Posted by: gary | Jul 1 2022 14:51 utc | 176
Did the ancient Romans say “dulce et decorum pro Lithuania mori west”? For Germans, it is sweet and proper to die to defend their fatherland from the results of the decisions of their elected officials, however stupid. That does not extend to the decisions of Lithuanian officials and so on. I suspected that in Germany it is clear to all except most moldy (green) minds.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 1 2022 15:48 utc | 186

@Anonymous (55) Whatever.

Posted by: Rob | Jul 1 2022 15:59 utc | 188

Re: Snake Island
Russia previously repelled two Ukrainian attempts to retake Snake Island without breaking a sweat. Does anyone honestly believe that they could not do so again, if they wanted to? It’s pure wishful thinking to entertain that possibility. In the present instance, Russia allowed the Ukies back on the Island. We can speculate on the motive, but not on the fact.

Posted by: Rob | Jul 1 2022 16:05 utc | 190

regarding this ”snake island” thread…
did anyone read the article from june 22nd that was on indian punchline that i shared at the end of the last ukraine open thread? maybe someone did, lol… here is his article from yesterday indian punchline… if you are interested, read his article from june 22nd while on his site..
Russia steals the thunder in ‘wheat war’

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2022 16:11 utc | 192

British PM Boris Johnson on radio news saying that Russian forces were forced to flee Snake Island, talk about spinning the truth.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 1 2022 16:19 utc | 194

Global Times published an angry yet measured editorial related to its being illegally sanctioned over its alleged help given to Russia.

This is the first time the US has taken action against Chinese entities over Russia-related businesses since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February. US media claimed that the move was to demonstrate US’ resolve and strength to implement sanctions against Russia. Who does Washington think it is? The UN Security Council? Or the judge and the police of the world?
The US does not and should not have the privilege of being superior, and China will never accept any country that claims to be superior. The US’ unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction have neither the basis of international law nor the authorization of the UN Security Council. They are completely illegal. Where does the US gain the confidence to set up a moral plaque for illegal actions? Once taking off the confusing disguise, the hegemony can be immediately revealed. After all, quite a few American elites today still regard the world of the 21st century as a “jungle,” and view the US as the most ferocious beast, or the only hunter in the jungle.
However, the world is no longer a “jungle society.” The rapid development of political civilization, economic globalization and the multilateralism has all made it difficult for the US to maintain its hegemony. More and more countries don’t buy such US tricks, and the US’ ability has been gradually falling short of its ambition. As a result, it starts to talk more about “rules” – using the “rules” to demand and constrain others, while the US itself is wandering outside the “rules.” American hegemony seems to have become “smarter,” but the sly nature has not changed….
On the day that Washington announced sanctions against Chinese companies, the G7 summit ended with a joint statement. The statement, which mainly reflects Washington’s attitude, interests and style, is full of domineering and arrogant rhetoric and unreasonable content, creating a record in G7 history. It mentioned China 14 times, called on “China to press Russia… to immediately and unconditionally withdraw its troops from Ukraine” and urged China to give up “expansive maritime claims” in the South China Sea. It also voiced “grave concerns” on China’s human rights situation. Obviously, the illegal sanctions against Chinese companies are consistent with this statement. This has reminded us of the Eight-Nation Alliance over 100 years ago, but today’s China is not the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) that could be bullied by foreign powers.
Take Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example. Its essence and root cause are the contradictions between the US and Russia. It’s the result of the strategic imbalance caused by the US-led NATO’s eastward expansion. However, Washington has arbitrarily concocted the so-called “Chinese responsibility theory.” It’s complete hooligan logic. People have seen that the sanctions against Russia by the US and its followers have “reached the political limit,” but they have failed to generate the expected effect. Instead they have fallen into the traps they dug, with energy shortages and soaring prices. If they don’t clean up the economic chaos themselves, what qualifications do they have to put the blame on China, which has been working hard to promote talks and peace?…
The US sanctions on Chinese companies on Tuesday set another extremely bad precedent. According to past examples, once the US sets a precedent, it will continue to expand its scope of attack according to its own needs. The sooner the international community stops the US, the less damage it will cause. Opposing hegemony is not only a matter of international morality, but also a must-do for safeguarding legitimate interests. [My Emphasis]

The Outlaw US Empire is no longer the world’s strongest nation. Neoliberal Parasite misgovernance since Carter has hollowed-out its real economy, its real GDP $10 Trillion less than claimed, its $800 Billion/yr military woefully mediocre, essentially a hose spewing corruption to grease all the right wheels.
In the talk with Hudson yesterday, he opined in answer to my direct question on the matter that there’s no way other than rebellion to alter the Outlaw US Empire’s political-economy and return it to a normal, law-abiding nation. The grounds for such a rebellion are provided in the Declaration of Independence. And that’s not very helpful since most people have no idea those words exist.
And there you have the real reason why Russia is taking its time as the Outlaw US Empire slowly implodes from the weight of its own contradictions while showing the world it’s entirely unworthy of leading anything.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 16:29 utc | 196

In Sweden, Swedish law is applied by independent courts. Swedish citizens are not extradited. Non-Swedish citizens can be extradited at the request of other countries, but only if it is compatible with Swedish law and the European Convention,” Justice Minister Morgan Johansson said in a written statement to AFP.
i dont see how this deal will go ahead, all fluff for western consumption

Posted by: hankster | Jul 1 2022 16:31 utc | 198

aquadraht @195–
the naval blockade would be the better option: it is no more hostile than sanctioning
Would such a blockade be legal for the sanctions are illegal along with Lithuania’s actions? IMO, a blockade is an act of war and would need to be authorized by the Duma allowing Putin to engage in hostilities vis Lithuania. And I don’t see the situation developing along those lines. The treaty’s broken which gives Russia a legal basis for its actions, and that’s enough.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2022 16:36 utc | 200