Gen. Mieczysław Gocuł: the NATO summit is to convince us that we will win the war with Russia if, or rather when, it breaks out
I am very concerned that the NATO summit in Madrid is going in the wrong direction. Instead of looking for ways to win peace, because this is the essence of the problem of the eastern flank, the summit is to convince us that we will win the future war if, or rather when, it happens – says Gen. Mieczysław Gocuł, former Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army.
First of all: NATO at the 2014 summit in Newport, by creating the Readiness Action Plan, increased the Response Force to 40,000. soldiers – including land, sea, air, space and cyber components. Now, in 2021-22 (because the Russians mobilized their forces for this war in October last year) we have a war. And what happened on NATO’s eastern flank? US troops arrived, but importantly, the NATO Response Force did not arrive. And yet, if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine close to our borders did not cause a reaction by the NATO Response Force, then it is necessary to ask the head of NATO whether the Alliance’s crisis response procedures have been launched at all.
If the Pact triggered them, after the initiating phase (conflict detection), it would be necessary to move on to the next phase: strategic assessment by the commander of the combined NATO forces in Europe. Such an assessment should be presented by the commander at a meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC – NATO’s most important decision-making body). After all, this assessment would be simple: Russia brought out over 150,000. soldiers and launched an invasion of Ukraine. It was therefore to be expected that the NAC would share the commander’s assessment. The next step in NATO’s crisis response should be to use Response Options Development. But nothing like that happened. We in Poland and the Baltic states understand the threat, but the approach of other NATO states is diametrically different.
Unfortunately, even those US troops now on the eastern flank have never been placed under NATO command. Thus, the Alliance’s nerve, or command structure, has not been mobilized to coordinate the actions of the NATO Response Force, which also has not been deployed. So what if we have 40,000 in NATO? The Response Forces if they haven’t moved?
And have you heard that the famous NATO Spearhead (Very High Readiness Joint Task Force – VJTF) appears in Poland or in the Baltic States? Also not. And yet it was created in 2014 – after Russia’s war in the Donbas and the annexation of Crimea – and was supposed to react within 72 hours.
Since 40 thousand. did not move, it’s 300,000 it won’t move either. Since even the spearhead has not moved with the current state of leadership in the member states and NATO itself?
Yes. It is not a question of the number of declared forces, but of the lack of a decision. It is similar with our army – the key is not whether we have 100 or 300 thousand. soldiers, but what capabilities the military has and whether it has the ability to stop the Russian invasion. Let’s forget about numbers. When humans flew with stone spears, the actual number was decisive. But not now.
You complain, and Jens Stoltenberg announces: “The NATO summit in Madrid will be groundbreaking. With a new strategic concept, we will make a fundamental change in NATO’s deterrence and defense.”
Before the NATO summit in Warsaw (2016), at the Pact’s military committee, I asked Stoltenberg: what will be the guarantees for the eastern flank? He replied with a question: what else does Poland expect? I said straight: security and prosperity, which is what the rest of the sitting at table wants.
Just like then, I hear the same slogans today, such as “do more with less”, and there are also other nice-sounding calls, but these are only political slogans calculated for a positive social perception and minimizing costs – but they do not really bring any political and military solutions.
No breakthrough in NATO, even if there is a real risk of a war with Russia?
If Stoltenberg says it will be a turning point, it is probably just for him. Because it will be the last summit with him as the head of the Pact. The summit will definitely not be a breakthrough, because – first of all – NATO does not want to take a big step forward.
What should happen for a breakthrough to become a reality?
Let’s be honest: if there is to be a breakthrough, we should have 360 ​​degrees of security for the Alliance – on each of its borders. And let’s also honestly answer the question: is the eastern flank safe – are Poland and the Baltic states safe? Well, we are not safe – NATO does not give us security now and the current summit in Madrid will not change that. And yet such slogans – of complete security – had already been spoken at the previous summits of the Pact in Brussels, Warsaw and Newport. It always ended up with security slogans. This time it will also be like that.
Now the tension between Russia and Lithuania is growing, because the sanctions are blocking the Kaliningrad Oblast more and more. Could this be a hotspot?
If Putin wanted to start the war further and decided to cut a corridor through the Balts to the Kaliningrad District at the Suwałki Isthmus, what forces could stop him? Could the forces of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland stop Putin? Well not. Putin will not be stopped by the Americans, who are present on the eastern flank only in small numbers. I repeat, Russia talks and counts only with strong countries and organizations. And NATO in our region is weak.
NATO is not strong on the eastern flank, but does it have enormous potential, which it does not want to transfer to our region?
NATO has military potential, but does not have the political potential to use it to build real security in our part of Europe. European leaders are not equal to the task. I don’t want to criticize individual leaders, but the role of statesmen is to make difficult but necessary decisions.
These leaders do not seem to understand that the war in Ukraine has already caused hundreds of billions of euros in damage, and will still bring trillions of damage to the entire global world. It will also bring hunger and the millions of victims of hunger that Russia is blackmailing the world with. If the leaders thought seriously, they would very quickly make decisions about the forward and enhanced presence of NATO on the eastern flank, so that it could carry out specific operational tasks, which we are able to precisely define to ensure security. However, for this to be possible, a NATO division should be stationed in Poland.
After the NATO summit in Warsaw (2016), we formally created an international division in Poland – it should be linked to the chain of command and be subordinate to the Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin, which is a rapid reaction corps. And this corps should be subordinate to the Allied Command of NATO’s Joint Forces in Brunssum, so that NATO would be responsible for the security of the eastern flank.
And what would result from this?
And the fact that the allied troops arriving on the eastern flank would be tied to the NATO chain of command. Today, after all, the battalion battle groups present in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as a result of the NATO summit in Warsaw are not even commanded by NATO, but by individual member states. Everything should be tense, but it isn’t.
The Estonian prime minister says: “Estonia (in the event of an attack by Russia) would be wiped off the map of Europe and its capital razed to the ground”, and NATO’s strategy follows the principle of “lose and then liberate”. And this is what it would be like in the event of the Russian invasion of the Baltic states?
This, unfortunately, is true.
But let’s start with the basic thing: what is the definition of security? It is the freedom to choose the path of development of the country. After all, what we have today on the eastern flank – in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia – is a contradiction of security. There is no free development, there are a lot of restrictions, there is a huge pressure to increase defense spending. And if there is no security, it means that NATO is not meeting the goals set out in the Washington Treaty, so NATO is not a strategic concept today.
The gradation in the validity of the documents is clear: the Washington Treaty, NATO’s strategic concept and MC400 (Military Implementation of the Alliance’s Strategic Concept), i.e. the military implementation of the Alliance’s strategic concept.
And in your opinion today is it fiction?
If Stoltengerg is reading correctly the Treaty and the Charter of the United Nations, to which the preamble to the Treaty refers, then he should be aware: NATO was not created to reflect NATO territory. And today it would be forced to do so, because it is not able to defend the territory of not only Estonia, but also Poland. It must be emphasized that NATO was created to defend NATO territory – to prevent the conflict from escalating and, as a result, from taking over at least part of NATO territory by the enemy.
However, there was already a lot of declarations that NATO would defend every scrap of the territory of a member state. In fact, it is impossible?
Today, NATO is actually saying that we will not give up any land to Russia. However, this is a story of fairy tales, and Putin probably laughs at it. Because what did NATO – apart from rhetoric and many Stoltenberg conferences – do about the war in Ukraine? NATO has a spearhead – did not send. NATO has a Response Force of 40,000. soldiers – they didn’t move. NATO has a command system – it has not moved. And if NATO wants to increase its Response Force to 300,000 and whoever thinks it will be OK, it sounds like a joke, because 300,000 wouldn’t move either.
One should also pay attention to the condition of our army, which would also have trouble moving. The operational units are stripped by the territorial defense forces, we have a shortage of officer cadres, problems with mobilization, and a broken crisis response system. We have announcements of huge purchases of weapons and the propaganda creation of a new division, but I dare to suspect that we are not able to deploy as many highly completed units as we declare for the NATO table of forces.
You paint a dramatic picture of the lack of determination and strength of NATO and the Polish army.
And the direction in which the NATO summit in Madrid is going will absolutely not ensure the security of the eastern flank. Even if there will be 300 thousand. Declared Response Forces, with 30-day supplies, ready to go to operational on the eastern flank, they will continue to be stationed where they are now stationed.
Is Poland and the Baltic states today – in a threatening situation – satisfied with the fact that somewhere in Spain or Italy there are units that are to arrive when Putin starts the war and enters our territories? After all, our waiting will be at least two weeks before the Forces take off, another two weeks before they sail or come, a week before they integrate. By then, it will be swept away, NATO will recapture the ruins and uncover the crimes of the Russians.
At the plenary session of the NATO military committee – before the summit in Warsaw – I argued to the Americans: if you want a NATO Response Force in Spain, they will sleep in their shoes and with rifles in their hands, and they will come to Poland too late anyway. I proposed: the forward presence of these troops on the eastern flanks is needed, so that the soldiers sleep in their pajamas, train and relax, but if there is a threat, they will get dressed in one day, have time to eat, get their equipment and go to the front.
It took Putin over a year to collect 150,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine – maybe this is the time to transfer NATO troops from Spain or Italy to the eastern flank?
I will answer, without violating the official secrecy. There used to be an incident in the Baltic Sea: over 30 Russian ships suddenly appeared on it. Total surprise. And yet ships at sea are not a tank that can be hidden in the forest. If more than 30 such ships went to sea and NATO knew nothing about it, will NATO be able to react quickly enough when Putin really wants to attack?
There were also the Zapad 2013 exercises. The Russians declared 12.5 soldiers, and gathered 140,000 soldiers. – the entire industrial and defense complex of Russia. Out of nowhere. What was the Alliance’s response? In 2013, NATO organized exercises on the eastern flank – how many NATO soldiers exercised? 1.3 thousand soldiers from the French Rapid Reaction Corps from Lille trained in Drawsko.
So are NATO guarantees mostly on paper and little response capacity?
If anyone says that by increasing the declared number of soldiers of the NATO Response Force to 300,000 and also that we want to increase the size of our own army to 300,000, we will ensure our own safety, says nonsense. If someone says that the Polish army will be so strong that it will win the war with Russia, that is also gibberish. Well, with the same NATO forces on the eastern flank and our army, the Russians will demolish the country.
I am very concerned that the NATO summit in Madrid is going in the wrong direction. Instead of looking for ways to win peace, because this is the crux of the eastern flank problem, the summit is to convince us that we will win the future war if, or rather when, it occurs. This rhetoric ended as we see it in Ukraine.
However, it is to increase support for the eastern flank.
But it will only cement the status quo. And the status quo is that NATO has done nothing to prevent a future war between Russia and NATO on the eastern flank.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 30 2022 16:58 utc | 4

Snake Island
Just yesterday, a prisoner swap 144:144 took place. Not all for all. But all Russians, I suppose. Surprisingly the Ukraine agreed to such a deal. Because the island must (IMHO) have been an undisclosed part of the deal on top of the 144. Bring the people back is much more important. And the Ukraine is obsessed with this island.

Posted by: BG13 | Jun 30 2022 17:07 utc | 6

Happy July morning to everyone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH6r0GtuKMA

Posted by: Craig | Jun 30 2022 17:12 utc | 8

I think this article explains a lot backround of the ukraine conflict
link

Posted by: Kurki | Jun 30 2022 17:25 utc | 10

@7
re: Snake Island
You win some, you lose some. You’ll note that many of the telegrammers addressed the issue much more directly than the euphemistic statement from the RF MoD. Also, if you insist on making the comparison, Mariupol was a city of of over 400k, Snake Island had a garrison of about 15 people.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 30 2022 17:44 utc | 12

Anyway, for some better news. Early reports that Zolotarivka is being taken – ie a move North of Lisichansk oil refinery. Also reports of Spirne, which is a move into the next valley, to the West, which will both protect the oil refinery / Verhnekamenka, and also will be the low-lying path parallel to the hill line in the direction of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 30 2022 17:48 utc | 14

Is there any reliable information on what is happening in the south? There are reports that Ukraine is making progress towards Kherson and asking residents to leave. Any truth in any of this?

Posted by: Keith | Jun 30 2022 18:17 utc | 16

Keith | Jun 30 2022 18:17 utc | 16
That’s been going on virtually since the first day of Russia’s SMO. Ukies are no doubt across the Kerch bridge by now and deep into Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 30 2022 18:23 utc | 18

Rob @9
i love this one, partly because jacques baud has worked with the un and nato and worked in ukraine when some of this started. people cannot claim bias. his facts are well cited or his personal experience. anyway,
https://labourheartlands.com/jacques-baud-the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-update/
good luck!

Posted by: polarbear4 | Jun 30 2022 18:38 utc | 20

A most strange find on the “conservapedia” this site has an intersesting read on the Russian/Ukraine War ongoing since 2014. Also includes what appears to be a NATO slice and dice Appeasement map. Granting a big slice to Poland.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 30 2022 18:51 utc | 22

When is daytime in US timezone there is max number of trolls here.

Posted by: rk | Jun 30 2022 18:55 utc | 24

@23
Lisichansk is 50% today. A few days probably

Posted by: rk | Jun 30 2022 19:01 utc | 26

@14 @19 @23
Meanwhile, Rybar is reporting RF movement Westward from the oil refinery. Locations of Zolotarivka and Spirne, mentioned earlier, are shown in the map.
Rybar update — https://t.me/rybar/34678
English language map from within previous link — https://i.ibb.co/LdSXK1n/29-06-EN-1-1-1.jpg

Posted by: ptb | Jun 30 2022 19:05 utc | 28

Would have been funny if the nazis had refused to accept it/take it back 🙂
Skiffer made sense in a recent thread but there has got to be more to it in my opinion. Same about it being a sweetener in a prisoner exchange; it could well be true but falls short of being a full explanation because I doubt the Russians had to give it away no matter any of that or anything else.
Of course the nazi interest in the island is equally inexplicable from my point of view.
It doesn’t even have any snakes… 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 30 2022 19:07 utc | 30

A random pro-ukr twitter account has this from a couple of days ago:
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1541360193019183107
Seems that HIMARS and other long range Western systems are hitting large RU munition dumps very far behind front lines?
According to some here I seem to remember a lot of talk about how the RuAF etc would obliterate all these Western weapons within a week.
I’ve said it before – against NATO intel and without ability to SEAD or to have proper recon the Russians will be stymied.

Posted by: Moaobserver | Jun 30 2022 19:27 utc | 32

I’ve said it before – against NATO intel and without ability to SEAD or to have proper recon the Russians will be stymied.
Posted by: Moaobserver | Jun 30 2022 19:27 utc | 32
—————————————————
Russia has its own satellites. With the so-called NATO intelligence, Russia had taken more than 25% of the Ukraine. Himars would be crushed too.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 30 2022 19:32 utc | 34

Lisichansk oil refinery video clip
https://t.me/zoka200/121

Posted by: ptb | Jun 30 2022 19:36 utc | 36

@32 re: SEAD (assuming UA gets gifted upgraded anti-air hardware, and people, at scale)
That’s an issue near the border of NATO countries, when there is a chance to operate most of the integraded anti-air system from within NATO borders. So basically Odessa oblast’, as far as this conflict is concerned. Everywhere else, it’s a VIP skip-the-line ticket to the top spot on the target list.
Besides that, the systems are great vs drones and planes, but not against the rockets and guided-missiles that have been doing the damage.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 30 2022 20:04 utc | 38

Re Snake Island,
Russia got tired of killing Keeeev’s bomber pilots one at a time and has opted for the opportunity to kill whatever garrison Keeev sticks out there.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 30 2022 20:12 utc | 40

Snake Island cannot be held effectively by Russia without control of the coastal areas. Ukraine cannot hold it without air domination – which they lack. It is important for many reasons – think about how upset the US got over China’s development of those coral atolls in the South China Sea. Claim on territory means a great deal. Russia can take it back when they take Odessa – assuming they do. In the meantime any assets Ukraine moves there are just as vulnerable as the Russian presence was.
Here is the Indian Punchline article on the matter:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/russia-steals-the-thunder-in-wheat-war/

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 30 2022 20:23 utc | 42

@39
Turkey said today they still won’t vote until sweden/finland do everything they request.
Also, no one sees Erdo as Russia’s ally. He’s more of a business man but crazy. Bayraktar is a family business too. Not going well after they were proven useless in Ukr, just like country’s economy
But you are right, EU is going down in the most funny way. They do it themselves and people voted for these puppets that destroy them

Posted by: rk | Jun 30 2022 20:31 utc | 44

#15
After the Spanish Civil War, there was officially a russophobie near pathological. Someone proposed that the famous “ensaladilla rusa” name must be changed to “ensaladilla imperial”. Nostalgic fascist dreams of empire and past glories. Were times of collaboration with III Reich and fascist Italy. Anything from Russia was bad and satanic. But russian classic literature or music never was prohibited.
Of course, few years later war, people in a restaurant was asking for “ensaladilla rusa”.

Posted by: AM | Jun 30 2022 20:37 utc | 46

There was a published story about getting the AA equipment onto snake island. It’s not easy. So holding it comes at great cost. It’s not really a necessity to man it. But the MoD statement is face saving. Or possibly an actual part of an attempt to get the Ukrainians to shut up about starving the world because the world depends on a few million tons of Ukrainian grain. Never mind that they derailed half a train loaded with grain yesterday. Probably face saving.
Fighting 1:1 as the attacker has costs. Losing the air defenses on snake island does create some risk for Sevastopol. It probably needs to be paired with massive barrages against the Odessa coast for at least a week.

Posted by: Lex | Jun 30 2022 20:41 utc | 48

Pulling back from Snake Island was a very smart move by Russia. They can just vaporise any Ukie troops that land there, but now have the advantage of letting Ukies shoot themselves in both feet over their whingeing that Russia was not letting any ships out of Odessa. It’s also amusing (to me at least) that Ukr attempted to re-take it a couple of times in completely useless raids and lost most of their troops and equipment in doing so, then Russia goes “It’s yours!” Kinda like saying “Up yours!”

Posted by: Ivanski | Jun 30 2022 20:53 utc | 50

Putin said:

“Nothing has changed, of course. I talked about it in the early morning on February 24. I talked about it directly and publicly for the entire country and the world to hear. I have nothing to add. Nothing has changed… I trust professionals. They are doing what they consider necessary to attain the overall goal. I have formulated the overall goal, which is to liberate Donbass, protect its people and create conditions that will guarantee the security of Russia itself. That is all. We are working calmly and steadily. As you can see, our forces are moving forward and attaining the objectives that have been set for the particular period of the engagement. We are proceeding according to plan.
“We are not speaking about any deadlines. I never speak about them, because this is life, this is reality. It would be wrong to make things fit any framework, because, as I have already said, the issue concerns combat intensity, which is directly connected with possible losses. And we must think above all about saving our guys’ lives.”

Catchline “create conditions that will guarantee the security of Russia itself.”

Posted by: ostro | Jun 30 2022 21:03 utc | 52

@Moaobserver #32
May be true, but even if it is: it isn’t stopped squat.
Donbas cauldron cleanup has been faster than anyone imagined.
Severodonetsk taken, Lisichansk within days, if not hours of falling.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 30 2022 21:18 utc | 54

Game Changer? https://www.bitchute.com/video/bg2BOBbKiMPR/

Posted by: liveload | Jun 30 2022 21:36 utc | 56

Next step: take the first 144 positions after decimal point of pi and take the sum of digits: Result = 666.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 30 2022 21:43 utc | 58

Exchanges POWs & retreat from Snake Island
Interesting timing.
Something smells fishy here……

Posted by: Chessmaster | Jun 30 2022 21:48 utc | 60

Martyanov on Snake Island…

1. Snake Island: purely political decision to remove Ukie “argument” about grain “blockade”. Now Ukies started to de-mine approaches to Odessa and it will be very difficult for them to use the silly argument of Snake Island as an excuse. Militarily, VSU will not be able to place there anything because it will be immediately annihilated. The distance between Snake Island and Sevastopol is 260 kilometers–peanuts for P-800 Onix or any of the Kalibrs. VSU knows it and already stated that they have no intent to place anything there. They can’t, even if they wanted to. I will omit here purely operational issue of Snake Island affair, which weakened the Odessa grouping of VSU dramatically.

Which is correct. Russia simply decided the cost of maintaining a force there under constant attack from artillery, UAVs and missiles was simply not worth the effort when the island can be controlled remotely. In other words, potential or actual loss of Russian life was not worth it. Apparently the Ukrainians have decided that, too. They got their PR “win” and little else.
Of course, some here enjoy every “PR win” against Russia. You know who they are.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 30 2022 21:49 utc | 62

“Losing the air defenses on snake island does create some risk for Sevastopol.”
No it doesnt. That is way off base. That is not how air defenses work.

Posted by: nook | Jun 30 2022 21:58 utc | 64

Tigger@57
Keep on taking the pills.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 30 2022 22:06 utc | 66

One of the most curious features in the propaganda surrounding the SMO is how insignificant issues are exploded into existential angst. Nothing illustrates this more than that miserable 50 acre rock. It’s real military value is negligible. Yet the ukies have wasted lives and equipment they cant afford in launching futile attacks against it, all because of the butt hurt they suffered at the beginning of the operation. Remember the F you and the claim all the troops there were killed…but it was a lie (as usual for ukies). They would rather have eyes off the humiliating defeat at Mariupol and the meat grinder farther north, I get it. What I dont get is how anyone who understands what Russia is doing would fall for the propaganda uses ukraine has made of this place.

Posted by: nook | Jun 30 2022 22:13 utc | 68

Rob@9: If you type “WSWS” into your browser you will get the World Socialist Web Site. They have a four part summary of the history of the Ukraine conflict, very specific. Just scroll down until you find it.

Posted by: Oakland Pete | Jun 30 2022 22:20 utc | 70

This article, and seemingly most of you, have simply mocked NATO and some of its clownish spokespersons. Let us not make the mistake of underestimating evil and the strength of their hubris and ambition. Stolenberg may definitely be stupid, but he is not the one calling the shots. He is simply the front, and they don’t need a thinking type for mouthing nonsense. The war planning and execution details are and will be controlled elsewhere, and I wouldn’t casually write-off the military and economic might of the collective West. Worry and dark forebodings are to my mind more appropriate emotions at this juncture in human history. So what can happen if the collective West with newly added Sweden and Finland decide to attack Russia? Can a country of 140 million fight a gang of 700 million? Russia has long, long borders and too few men to guard it. Russia’s industrial capacity is much smaller than the collective capacity of the West. What then? Will they cave-in or go nuclear? It is not a happy outcome either way.
Ignore fools like Stolenberg and Liz Truss. Ignore clowns like BoJo and Zelensky. The oafish German Chancellor (God did give him a fool’s face) counts for nothing. Decisions are made elsewhere, and they are not all fools. If we grant ordinary intelligence and competence (and we should to avoid unpleasant surprises) to the military authorities of the West, Russia is up against huge odds and may have no options left other than the nuclear one. And there lies the huge risk to all of mankind.

Posted by: worried guest | Jun 30 2022 22:26 utc | 72

I am drunk, so I will not write anything I have not already tweeted.)
Re: Finland
Kurki @61 & Tigger @69
Russians With Attitude asks on Twitter:

I still don’t understand what Sweden & Finland get out of the whole NATO thing except being put on the WW3 nuke map. Does it come with free weapons or military-industrial investments or something? What am I missing?
Show more replies
Since I don’t believe that literally everyone involved in these decisions has a medical condition limiting their cognitive functions, I assume that there must be *some* practical dimension to this. Do NATO bases boost the host economy somehow? Do NATO troops pay rent?

My response:
1) Finland is not an independent political actor. Power was grabbed by a “NATO Occupation Regime” consisting of @TKomitea (KGB) & @HybridCoE.
2) Desire to protect Baltic States in inevitable #Kaliningrad crisis.
3) Russophobia, #StandWithUkraineNOW! 🇺🇦

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 30 2022 22:42 utc | 74

@63 Good thinking. Some of those Kurds slated for extradition are well integrated into society in Sweden and Finland. Some even hold government positions. It will not be easy to get them out. It will depend on how much Turkey insists on getting them back and into Turkish prisons.

Posted by: dh | Jun 30 2022 23:11 utc | 76

@72
Those numbers are irrelevant and your assessment is wrong.
There maybe 100 intelligent people in a room but if the chief decides to take the advice from the fool its useless. In the current situation you have maybe a handfull of competent people in a room. All the others are there because they are gay, trans, party-affiliated, rich offspring, protegees of some oligarch or interest or whatever. If the french had listened to de gaulle in ww2 it would have been a different story. Or look at the incompetency the austrian aristocrat generals managed to achieve in ww1.
The matter of 700 million people vs 140 million. How many of those 700 million people are willing or ready or in any regards capable of fighting in a war?
Do you think portuguese people would happily join in to defend lithuania?
How much industrial power does the west really have? How much steel is produced in all of Europe? Espescially without german and italien factories. The US is an industrial waste land. In the meantime i have come to the conclussion that all of our economical power is a fata morgana. Its nothing. Do you sometimes wonder how in every town the russians capture in donbas there is a foctory for real stuff? Where is it in europe? How many of the famous german car industries cars are built in germany? Where will the tanks come from? Where the ammunition?
I dont see anything that could stop russia from roll over eastern and central europe once they take their gloves off. In such a scenarion of total escalation they would bomb cities into craters before sending men in. Other than in ukraine i dont see anybody in germany or france fighting for their “fatherland” which they have been tought to dismiss. Those who still believe in their nation would welcome russians since their own governments treat them like enemies of the state. What are europeans gonna fight for? The EU? Democracy? Freedom? Macron? Tell me what for? Who is gonna fight? Look around you, look at the 20y old boys and tell me that they are gonna fight a real war, against a real army with a 20 or 50 or 80% chance of dying? A ukrainian flag on twitter. Thats their war.
In an escalation like that and a russian army of a million or so men with more than sufficiant tanks, artillery etc.
This whole idea is rubbish in my view.

Posted by: Orgel | Jun 30 2022 23:21 utc | 78

worried guest #72
Oh yes, nato are all fools.
Scott Ritter explains here. Ten minutes utoob.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 30 2022 23:34 utc | 80

Very important
According to the MoD of Russia, the RF forces will vacate Snake Island.
This is a grave mistake:
Ukraine will land on it and cede it to the UK who will receive it, occupy it
and gain a foothold in the Black Sea with all nasty consequences for the RF.

Posted by: CarlD | Jun 30 2022 23:41 utc | 82

CarlD @82–
IMO, your fears are unfounded. Evacuating the island doesn’t mean ceding it. Here’s the pertinent article. It’s all about calling the food crisis bluff.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 30 2022 23:50 utc | 84

Kurki | Jun 30 2022 21:48 utc | 61
Most unfortunate…Sounds quite like how it’s done in the U.S.

Posted by: donten | Jul 1 2022 0:26 utc | 86

Alex and Alexander kick the Lithuanian rat around the room for a few minutes. The EU is getting a taste of eating its own sh!t.
Is the level of lead in the european drinking water unsafe for humans?

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 1:05 utc | 88

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 0:41 utc | 87
Agree. Also Iran seems to be getting involved in this space. Unsafe for all western powers who want to encourage food insecurity.

Posted by: financial matters | Jul 1 2022 1:22 utc | 90

The definitive analysis of Snake Island is from The Duran guys today…
Russian military leaves Snake Island
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHW4_cdxKmk
They’re right on all counts. The Russian MoD sucks at PR, whereas the Russian MoFA does a decent job with Zakharova and Lavrov. They suggest the MoD should call Zakharova before saying anything, since she knows how to use social media. I agree. They point out that the island is essentially useless to both sides, so Russia stopped bothering with it once the Ukrainians started making it too expensive for its value. The Ukrainians get a Hollywood movie out of it, and that’s all they get – a distraction from their imminent loss of Lysychansk.
They do miss the point that if Russia leaves Snake Island, then Ukraine is on the hook to de-mine Odessa – which then opens the way for a Russian amphibious attack (not that I think the Russians would bother doing one, when they can take Odessa from the land easily enough.) So the Ukrainians have to keep the mines and thus no grain goes out. Of course, it won’t matter – Russia will still be blamed for no grain going out.
They also miss the point that Ukraine wasted a lot of resources trying to recapture the island. How much impact that will have going forward is likely minimal, though, in the overall scheme of things.
Bottom line: The whole thing is an irrelevant side-show.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 1 2022 1:43 utc | 92

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-30/european-power-prices-hit-fresh-highs-as-winter-concerns-mount#xj4y7vzkg
Since the war started, German benchmark rate of electricity prices doubled, to ca. 280 euroes per MWh.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 1 2022 2:19 utc | 94

@uncle tungsten | Jul 1 2022 0:41 utc | 87
Lets see Ukraine demine the Odessa approaches and harbour and export all that wheat. I doubt that will happen
Planting sea mines is relatively easy, getting rid of them is not. The US lacks much ability to minesweep.
Aug 6, 2021 — Two Sandown class minesweepers HSM “Ramsey” (M110) and HMS “Blyth” (M111) were withdrawn from the Royal Navy. These parts were handed over to the Babcock shipyard, which will renovate them before being transferred to the Ukrainian Navy. . .here
Assuming the Ukies have these ships, they must have judged that charging Russia with “blockading the ports” and not attempting a sweep was the way to go. If they don’t have them (or others) then they are powerless.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jul 1 2022 2:36 utc | 96

blob:https://web.telegram.org/4ef522c1-11a3-4b09-8118-8ad556bd603d
Another good one from Scott R.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 1 2022 2:49 utc | 98

Re Snake Island
Thanks Karlof1 and Uncle tungsten for your attempts to calm my fears. I wonder why the Ukies made so many onerous attempts
at securing Snake Island if it were only to get a little morale boosting Rambo style narrative.
One thing is sure, the “international Community” would, like “un seul homme”, immediately recognize the cession of the Snake Island
to England. Should I remind you of Kosovo?
Once this is done, Snake Island becomes Nato land and therefore would enjoy, until the official onset of WW3, a certain leeway
with its occupation of its island (intentional pleonasm)and the privilege this would confer upon them, via the Montreux Convention.
Turkiye would be hard pressed to refuse passage to its NATO colleague who would have become a Black Sea “riverain”.
Good place to station a surveillance unit, an extension of the TB2 pilot station some cannons and rocket ramps all under the NATO umbrella.
I still see it as plausible and probable considering we are dealing here with the Perfidious Albion and the SBU.
Anyway, we shall see.

Posted by: CarlD | Jul 1 2022 3:05 utc | 100