Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 11, 2022

Ukraine Bits: No Ammo, More Casualties, Thin Lines, Propaganda And Passing The Buck

The real state of the war in Ukraine, which I had described some two months ago, has now reached the main stream media. The Zelensky regime in Ukraine is using it to beg the 'west' for more guns and ammunition.

From the last link:

[T]he odds against the Ukrainians are starting to look overwhelming, said Danylyuk, the government adviser.

“The Russians are using long-range artillery against us, often without any response, because we don’t have the means,” he said. “They can attack from dozens of kilometers away and we can’t fire back. We know all the coordinates for all their important targets, but we don’t have the means to attack.”

Ukraine has now almost completely run out of ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies to donate, Danylyuk said. Ukraine urgently needs to shift to longer-range and more sophisticated Western systems, but those have only recently been committed, and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s immense firepower, he said.

Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days.

The Independent claims to have seen an intelligence report that showed even worse numbers:

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

This was easily foreseeable. As I wrote in mid April:

Without fuel the Ukrainian army can not move and without constant supply, especially of large amounts of artillery munitions, it can not counter Russian artillery which will be in heavy use against it.

This pictures of a former Ukrainian position show the devastating result of such a situation.


bigger

Nearly all of the Ukrainian ammunition and fuel supplies have been bombed and destroyed. What is trickling in through its western borders has difficulties to reach the eastern front and is anyway not enough to supply an actively fighting and maneuvering army.

To match Russia's 50,000 rounds per day, with each round weighing 50 kilograms, some 2,500 metric tons of ammunition would have to be moved per day from Ukraine's western border to the east. After reaching some railhead in the east they would have to be loaded on some 350 trucks to be distributed while being under fire from long ranging Russian weapons. This would have to happen each and every day.

The U.S. has large depots of ammunition but even those would be emptied within a few month if no large scale production of new rounds would be happening. Munition production is usually done only on a small but steady scale of a few hundred rounds per week. The west would have to scale up production to allow for the supply Ukraine would need to match Russia.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense Ukraine's artillery has lost 506 multiple launch rocket systems and 1,859 field artillery and mortars since the beginning of the war. The daily reported number of pieces hit have changed over time from 50+ per day to now single digits.

The total numbers in the Russia report are too high (as they usually are in similar 'western' reports). They amount to more than what the Ukraine had at the start of the war. But we can safely guess that more than 90% of Ukraine's guns and missile systems have been destroyed. Meanwhile the 'west' has promised the Ukraine some 200 gun and some 50 missile systems. Half of those are former soviet types. The other half are newer and need 'western' ammunition. They seem to arrive only in trickles.

The U.S. has send some 100 M-777 lightweight howitzers. Only a few have been seen at the front in the east and some were already destroyed there. Others are used to fire on non-military targets in Donetsk city. We can guess where the rest is. The M-777 is lightweight (4.2 metric tons) because it is largely made from titanium which has a ten times higher scrap value than steel. Some entrepreneurs in Ukraine's west seem to have found that recycling the guns (or selling them elsewhere) is of more value than sending them to the east where they would surely be destroyed within a few days.

Ten days ago the Ukrainian comedian and president Zelensky had admitted that some 60 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers are getting killed per day. That number was highly qualified and an advisor to Zelensky has now doubled it:

A senior Ukrainian presidential aide has told the BBC that between 100 and 200 Ukrainian troops are being killed on the front line every day.

Mykhaylo Podolyak said Ukraine needed hundreds of Western artillery systems to level the playing field with Russia in the eastern Donbas region.

The real numbers are certainly higher than anything the Zelensky regime will ever admit. In a World War I like artillery dominated conflict (but without gas attacks) the number of wounded to dead is historically some 4 to 1 with one of the wounded additionally dying later from his wounds. This historic 'sanitation deaths' rate of wounded later dying from their wounds has since been halved by the use of antibiotics. But in Ukraine it may well be higher than usual in modern wars as its medical infrastructure is in a quite bad shape and as many medical personnel have fled the country.

So lets assume that the real numbers are some 300 dead per day plus 1,200 wounded. An eighth of the wounded, 150 men, will later die from their wounds. This casualty rate has been the same each and every day since early April when Zelensky rejected further negotiations and the war entered its attrition phase. It means that over the last two months the Ukrainian army lost more than 18,000 men with an additional 70,000 wounded. Some of whom will also have died by now while others will have fully recovered. The Ukrainian army started out with some 200,000 soldiers. Later some 30 to 100,000 men of the territorial defense forces were called up and send to the frontline. There were reports that some of these untrained units have had casualty rates of 65%.

No army can use all of its men on the front line. There are always a lot of logistic and support troop needed.

The tooth to tail ratio (T3R) in a military can be between 1 to 10 up to 1 to 2.5. The Ukrainian frontline will probably be held by some 20% of the Ukrainian army (200,000 minus dead and wounded plus territorial forces and a 1 to 4 T3R). That makes some 40,000 men over a current frontline length of some 1,000 kilometer. Those are 40 men per kilometer or 64 per mile. That is a quite thin force. It will not take many more weeks until that line breaks decisively.

Zelensky could shorten the contact line by half and double its defense power if he were willing to allow a retreat to the Dnieper line. But he has so far rejected any request for retreat. That seals the fate of his army.

I have written earlier about the effects of artillery fire on the morale of an army:

Morale can not replace firepower. Morale gets destroyed when soldiers come under concentrated artillery fire. Russia has plenty of the later.

The Independent report quoted above speaks of ever growing desertion numbers. They are still only a trickle but will become a flood as soon as the frontline breaks down. I now expect that to happen at the end of this month.

While the soldiers die by the hundreds per day Ukrainian officials continue with their propaganda gimmicks (machine translation):

Ukrainians on social media were outraged by an event organized by the Kyiv School of Economics and its president Tymofiy Milovanov in the United States.

Participants are invited to "immerse" themselves in the atmosphere of war, in particular, to visit the filtration area and dinner in the style of a bomb shelter.

Milovanov himself announced the event, which will take place on June 25 in New York at the Harvard Club.

"This event will change you. Your priorities in life will change. You will understand and accept the responsibility of the whole world as your own, to win this war and stop Russia.

There will be a filtration zone, a bomb-style dinner, and an immersion in the experience of war and war crimes," he said.

A 'filtration zone' is where prisoners of war will be interviewed and sorted before they are moved to prison camps. The Ukraine army has used such zones to torture prisoners.

Two days ago I noted that the blame game for the loss of the war has begun. Zelensky will be the one to whom the buck will be passed to. President Biden has now joined in this:

President Joe Biden, speaking to donors at a Democratic fundraiser here, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “didn’t want to hear it” when U.S. intelligence gathered information that Russia was preparing to invade.

The remarks came as Biden was talking about his work to rally and solidify support for Ukraine as the war continues into its fourth month.

“Nothing like this has happened since World War II. I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating. But I knew we had data to sustain he” — meaning Russian President Vladimir Putin — “was going to go in, off the border.”

“There was no doubt,” Biden said. “And Zelenskyy didn’t want to hear it.”

Although Zelenskyy has inspired people with his leadership during the war, his preparation for the invasion — or lack thereof — has remained a controversial issue.

"Zelensky did not listen to us and he didn't inform us how bad the war was going," will become the standard line as soon as the Ukrainian army is on the run.

Posted by b on June 11, 2022 at 17:35 UTC | Permalink

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I thought the days of soldiers, dying in ditches, in hopeless military positions, was over.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragging

Even if each Ukraine position has hard core Uko-Nazis, to ensure discipline, it does not take much to erase their existence.

Surely the average Ukrainian soldier must be waking up, by now, even through the haze of propaganda? And no, Europe is not going to come and save them!

Posted by: Ric G | Jun 11 2022 22:51 utc | 101

288 The Bolsheviks were perfect for the times. Workers of the World Unite! But times change. Now we have a situation where race and identity have become major issues. It seems natural that Marxists and racists (must be careful with that word)...racialists?....should have a shared victimhood.

Posted by: dh | Jun 11 2022 22:53 utc | 102

Dh@78

“ CRT has become an integral part of Marxist thinking”

This is cultural Marxism. The US Democrat party and media are currently plagued by this thinking. Many in EU etc don’t understand because they don’t have a large black population. There is a gigantic backlash forming against the democrats because of BLM and the stolen election. Democrats used the BLM to create a fake structure in the media to give some sort of plausible cause for the shift to Biden other than sheer fraud.

Posted by: Bobolinski | Jun 11 2022 22:56 utc | 103

OT--China lashes out at Outlaw US Empire for its ongoing theft of Syrian resources during its continued illegal occupation, "Beijing Blasts US Over ‘Flagrant Plunder’ of Syria’s Resources ‘in Broad Daylight’":

The United States is behaving like a “pirate” in Syria and openly plundering the Middle Eastern nation’s resources, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has said.

“Unfortunately, the US government, rather than reflecting upon its war-related crimes and responsibilities, has flagrantly plundered Syria’s national resources, plunging the country into an unprecedented humanitarian disaster,” Zhao said in a press briefing Friday.

The spokesman cited United Nations World Food Programme figures indicating that nine in ten Syrians live below the poverty line, with two thirds requiring humanitarian assistance, and 55 percent suffering food insecurity.

“The Syrian people’s wealth is being plundered by the US in broad daylight. At the same time, US sanctions deprive the country of the opportunities for development. The Syrian people have decried the suffocating pirate-like behaviour and economic blockade of the US,” Zhao said.

China continues its warnings to the Global South about the danger in having anything to do with the Outlaw US Empire by highlighting its ongoing criminality--facts that the Empire cannot deny. Such facts create a counterpoint to presentations by Austin and other Empire criminals that make it easier for weaker nations to resist and say NO! This info war by China is important as the Global South gets squeezed economically and needs its resistance to Outlaw US Empire offers of "help" strengthened.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 11 2022 23:00 utc | 104

During the gulf war, when we were carpet bombing the Republican Guards a guy I knew in the Air Force commented that a lot of the bombs were low tech and dated back to Vietnam. We were just emptying warehouses. It struck me that the same thing could be going on here - the Russians may have an almost inexhaustible supply of artillery rounds and they could keep this up for years. It's also a style of warfare that suits the Russians - just methodically pounding the shit out of their enemy with artillery and grinding them down over time.
This has gone on long enough. It is time to end romantic notions of the Ukrainian army chasing the Russians out with their tale between their legs. It's time to sit down and have a serious discussion.
One other thought- the minute we announced that we didn't want to get into a war with Russia, this day became inevitable. We can supply them with arms, but it's always 'if only we had this or if only we had that'. Sooner or later, we were going to have to refuse. What happens when Zelensky says 'if only we had tactical nukes'?

Posted by: ian | Jun 11 2022 23:03 utc | 105

@ Ghost Ship | Jun 11 2022 20:45 utc | 56

There are no western experts, they have been replaced by people who are 'on-message'.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 11 2022 23:03 utc | 106

Beware unintended consequences of your actions! "US sanctions policy to create another G8 group - Russian parliament speaker: The move by Washington and its allies to cut the existing economic ties has created new points of growth in the world, Vyacheslav Volodin said.

The United States and its allies are destroying economic ties by their sanctions policy, creating new points of growth in other countries, Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on Telegram on Saturday.

"The move by Washington and its allies to cut the existing economic ties has created new points of growth in the world," he pointed out. According to the parliament speaker, Western sanctions are leading to the establishment of another group of eight nations - China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran and Turkey - that is 24.4% ahead of the old group of developed countries in terms of GDP and purchasing power parity.

"The United States, with its own hands, has created conditions for countries willing to build an equal dialogue and mutually beneficial relations to actually establish a new G8 group with Russia," Volodin noted.

Oh the irony is certainly delicious! Only two technically European states, although several must do a better job of purging their Neoliberal elements and polices. You can see the stage being set for an upcoming international economic conference that changes or adds to the existing order and its institutions.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 11 2022 23:12 utc | 107

These will relentlessly denounce Macron and Scholz as accomplice of "Putin the slaughterer". It's not a politically sustainable position for them.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jun 11 2022 22:32 utc | 93

Again, you are losing sight of the significance of the move (initiated by whomever for whatever reason) which essentially breaks-up Western alliance, one thing in this mess, which in the mind of big bosses, must be preserved at all costs. You think that moral standing of Macron or Scholz is more important for PTB than the unity of the Western alliance.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 11 2022 23:12 utc | 108

dh Do you imagine that "race and identity" were not "major issues" in the USA of Jim Crow massive immigration and urban machines?
Of course they were, much bigger issues than they are today. And socialism- which was deeply influenced by Marx but never dominated by his teachings- almost uniformly denied their importance arguing that class not race, and relations with the means of production not identity, were what was important in society.

Cultural Marxism sounds like a contradiction in terms to me.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 11 2022 23:13 utc | 109

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jun 11 2022 20:32 utc | 52

Ah ! Wikipee, the world's most pitiful CIA front for propaganda , fiction and misinformation .

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 11 2022 23:15 utc | 110

!103 Thanks for replying. I try to keep up with events in the US. I don't know how far the 'woke' stuff has penetrated the Democratic party but history would suggest a backlash is brewing. The pendulum swings.

Posted by: dh | Jun 11 2022 23:16 utc | 111

@ karlof1 | Jun 11 2022 22:40 utc | 99
A big part of the US to base "more than 300,000 of our men and women" (said Austin) in western Pacific is the maintenance of endless war in Korea. That's in accord with the US “rules-based international order” that means instability everywhere. Trump entered into an agreement to end it but then it died (of course)

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 11 2022 23:20 utc | 112

@109 "Do you imagine that "race and identity" were not "major issues" in the USA of Jim Crow massive immigration and urban machines?"

Yes I think they were important to some people. The seeds of the civil rights movement were sown in that era. But they didn't dominate the media and TV like they do today. I have no idea how it will all play out. Socialism has never really dominated in the US the way skin color has. And I'm not sure how the mid-term elections will change things. I only know what I see.

Posted by: dh | Jun 11 2022 23:24 utc | 113

psychohistorian | Jun 11 2022 20:51 utc | 58

Planning is a form of laziness. Joe Tzu

Posted by: Dadda | Jun 11 2022 23:24 utc | 114

@Posted by: bevin | Jun 11 2022 23:13 utc | 109

Cultural Marxism is a contradiction in terms, just some right wing bullshit term to describe the generally post-modernist/post-materialist turn in the Western "progressive" and academic institutions. Marxists, who believes in the centrality of the means of production and ownership of production within society can't stand it as it fails to question the central bases of exploitation. The Frankfurt School were/are "critical" theorists, not Marxists.

I noted a commenter a few days ago that stated that Gramsci was a cultural Marxist, Gramsci would turn in his grave! Gramsci believed that the ownership and control of production was still central, but that the capitalist elite had developed a hegemonic mode of political and cultural control that superseded pure physical domination and punishment. He came to this conclusion after being jailed by Mussolini's fascists, a movement that he had underestimated and he understood to be a natural progression of capitalists rule if the hegemonic culture failed to fully control the working class - the boot of the brownshirts added to the ideological control.

The theory of intersectionality has also caused major problems, as so many other determinants of exploitation are thrown in and identity is splintered. The working class becomes broken down into the black female worker, the white lesbian worker, the brown homosexual worker ad infinitum, with the "working class" bit tending to be greatly diminished. So the super-rich Ellen can claim lesbian sisterhood with a black working class lesbian, just ridiculous. That's the difference between "critical theorists" and "Marxists", the latter don't forget that its about who controls the means of production (including the means of cultural production).

Posted by: Roger | Jun 11 2022 23:30 utc | 115

Posted by: dh | Jun 11 2022 23:24 utc | 113

uh the seeds of the civil rights movement were sown in the US constitution and slavery. and the civil rights demonstrations dominated tv and media much more in the 60's than George Floyd protests did.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 11 2022 23:37 utc | 116

>>>>: Pagan | Jun 11 2022 20:15 utc | 48


CIA did analysis of how Hitler handled things. One of the concepts that I think came out of that was "never explain never apologize."

Been applied by Washington and London under Conservatives ever since. Conservative governments are Exceptionalist just like Washington

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jun 11 2022 23:42 utc | 117

@ John Cleary | Jun 11 2022 22:34 utc | 95

Seriously dude, get real!!

You really believe that the UK is ruled by a woman in her 90's? A woman that by all accounts was a supporter of Harold Wilson and who detested Margaret Thatcher. An absolute dictator behind the scenes?

No, a thousand times no, the UK is ruled by the Banksters, the monarchy is ordinarily just a rubber stamp and a potential device for intervention in the event of the 'wrong' people being elected or the 'wrong' policies being tabled.

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 11 2022 23:46 utc | 118

Aidan Aslin, Shaun Pinner, and Saadoun Brahim signed contracts with the Ukraine Armed Forces, one, some, or all significantly before 2022. I don't understand why they should be considered mercenaries. They might be guilty of heinous crimes for which they should be severely punished, but they can't be mercenaries if they are compensated normally and are contractural members of the warring military regardless of their nationality. What am I missing?

Posted by: Atown | Jun 11 2022 23:46 utc | 119

@116 "uh the seeds of the civil rights movement were sown in the US constitution ..."

Of course you are right. Slavery goes way back. I'm talking about a general awareness among some white activists that brought the issue into prominence..

Posted by: dh | Jun 11 2022 23:46 utc | 120

Roger@115

“ it’s about who controls the means of production”

We have moved beyond academic distinctions here in the US. The democrat party through stolen election has seized the primary source of power and are using it to reorient production and cultural dominance toward an unnatural group of disparate minorities, primarily Jews, but also blacks and gays and away from the majority white working class. This is a revolutionary movement. The term cultural Marxism is quite appropriate.

Posted by: Bobolinski | Jun 11 2022 23:48 utc | 121

I know it seems hard to accept the idea that the USA and allies are simply ignorant and stupid, but increasingly it seems that it may well be just that.

I suspect that NATO had a plan which was basically mass in Mariupol and using planes, ships missiles and troops they would reclaim Crimea. By cutting off water supply and perhaps massive aerial attack on the bridge they might hope to starve Russia out. Combined with massive sanctions, this would force a change of government in Russia and capitulation. Russia would quickly be back in the 1990s. The original plan I think also included orange revolutions in Belarus and Kazakhstan. On paper this plan looks pretty good. Surrounded by hostile states and humiliated over Crimea plus economic chaos, gives certain victory to the USA. I strongly suspect much or even most of the planning for this was in the UK.

The biggest issue would be attacking Crimea, but then the nuke question arose. What better way to take Crimea that allow Ukraine to use an "illegal" nuke or two. Plausible deniability for NATO, too bad so sad but now that Russia has collapsed we will send in the IMF to "fix" Crimea. I suspect they were still a year or two from implementing this plan.

Russia, getting wind of this plan or something like it, reacted earlier than expected, first by massing troops, second by the diplomatic initiatives, third by intercepting the two orange revolutions and fourth by launching the SMO.

I am increasing firming to the idea that it was the nuke threat that triggered the Russian response. A nuke launched at Crimea would have been devastating, but also because it would be Ukraine launching it, difficult for Russia to respond with its own nukes- just who would they attack.

It was of course a risky NATO plan and essentially one borne of ignorance and hubris. It seems to assume Russia would lack intelligence on such a plan and of course that the Russian population/oligarchs would destroy Putin. Far too much time spent listening to Russian oligarchs and emigres in London.

Once the SMO started NATO has little choice but to bank on Ukraine wining or at least weakening Russia, so it would negotiate- all assuming the Russian economy was in freefall. So the Crimea part of the plan might fail, for a few years at least, but Russia would be terminally weakened. Here I think they showed great ignorance of the Russian economy and mind set. I suspect that some mistakes by Russia in their original overreach during the first phase of the SMO may have encouraged NATO delusions about winning.

I think MI6 should have watched that delightful little Russian film called "the Italian." Much more useful that listening to oligarchs over a caviar and truffle lunch.

Posted by: watcher | Jun 11 2022 23:48 utc | 122

You think that moral standing of Macron or Scholz is more important for PTB than the unity of the Western alliance.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 11 2022 23:12 utc | 108

First you were deluding yourself when you understood that. I never expressed it.

I said the obvious, that Macron&Scholz need for themselves (can you understand that simple idea ?) a bare minimum of moral standing. I never spoke of the need of the PTB. PTB may be your obsession, it's not mine.

Western alliance is not the matter, because :
-trashing BoJo is nothing more than trashing a discredited politician, ex-journalist. It will have not serious effect on the "Western Alliance"
- your PTB doesn't command anytime anywhere. It's power is running through the media it controls. These medias will not be able to forbide resuming with Russia if Putin is whitewashed.
- why should France&Germany care about "Western alliance ?". It doesn't exist. There is only imperial hubris and selfishness from USA. And they are failing.

It looks like you don't really know about France & Germany, and don't see that they are not looking for "some sort of relation" with Russia. They have a life/death need for resuming normal relation. That is economic relation full throttle.
The life/death need for oil & gaz. The unbearable economic cost of sanctions. How can you ignore that ? Are you a newbie here ?

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jun 11 2022 23:57 utc | 123

Controlled Opposition anyone?
Here is a classic case: The Lobster on Ukraine
https://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/free/lobster84/lob84-view-from-the-bridge.pdf?cache=2
If Robin Ramsay has missed any of the MI6 Talking Points I missed them. This is atrocious stuff Kit Klarenberg wrote for RT therefore his story is based on Russian Hacking. Greyzone likewise. Mariupol is devastated -the Russians must be responsible because the Ukrainians would never do it to their own city and their own people...the rubbish just accumulates until the reader begins to wonder whether, after all JFK did not kill himself.
Memo to Robin: The people of the Donbas are not, in the view of the Ukrainian fascists, their people. They are Russian speaking Moskals, sub-humans true Ukrainians must expel, kill if necessary to make room for real Ukrainians who hate Russia.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 12 2022 0:00 utc | 124

"Get your excuses in then, stay until the buck stops"
Joe Tzu

Posted by: Jpc | Jun 12 2022 0:03 utc | 125

Aidan Aslin, Shaun Pinner, and Saadoun Brahim signed contracts with the Ukraine Armed Forces, one, some, or all significantly before 2022. I don't understand why they should be considered mercenaries. They might be guilty of heinous crimes for which they should be severely punished, but they can't be mercenaries if they are compensated normally and are contractural members of the warring military regardless of their nationality. What am I missing?

Posted by: Atown | Jun 11 2022 23:46 utc | 119


You've just done an excellent job explaining exactly why they're mercenaries!

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 12 2022 0:03 utc | 126

MarkU @118--

You haven't been here long enough to see the evidence John Clearly has provided to substantiate his case, which was back in 2019/20. Yes, there are legal instruments UK's royalty controls that allows them to remain in control despite outward appearances and with the immense aid of media obfuscation. The Restoration was a huge mistake.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 12 2022 0:05 utc | 127

"The term cultural Marxism is quite appropriate."

It would be appropriate if it had anything do with Marxism, it doesn't though.

The means of production are being further corporatized and placed in the hands of an every shrinking group. That group does not include minorities, except in token amounts. That group is 99% white. The white working class is being screwed by the white ownership class. The wild-eyed nutters of the the right are so obsessed with identity politics that they can't see who is actually screwing them. Instead they make up terms like "Cultural Marxism", which doesn't exist except in the minds of fools.

Posted by: Arthurdent | Jun 12 2022 0:15 utc | 128

"They amount to more than what the Ukraine had at the start of the war."

I'm not sure that is correct. If you add up ALL the artillery - towed and mobile, new and old - in that Wikipedia list, it comes to around 4,000 artillery pieces. Russia has allegedly destroyed only 1800 or so (and probably some of the reported "armored" or "special purpose vehicles" reports are really self-propelled artillery.) However, it's likely that a lot of the rest were mothballed in warehouses and that those warehouses were destroyed during the course of the war before those weapons could be effectively deployed. There may be some still in such warehouses.

So we can't know how much is remaining. However, due to the progress of the Russian operation, it's clear that they are not "slowing the advance" compared to other factors such as the Ukrainian fortifications or the Russian's own chosen pace to minimize Russian casualties.

So its "six of one and a half dozen of the other", i.e., it doesn't matter in the end whether the figures are correct or not.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 12 2022 0:26 utc | 129

Peter the Great has taken a couple of provinces. Not impressive.

Posted by: Rangewolf | Jun 12 2022 0:26 utc | 130

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 12 2022 0:05 utc | 127

Thank you Karl. Keep up the good fight. We're winning, you know.


Posted by: MarkU | Jun 11 2022 23:46 utc | 118

Thank you for your contrary assertions. You will forgive me if I do not engage.


As an aside, I wonder how President Putin feels about being knifed by the very same instrument as was used on Chancellor Kohl? "Act more like a gentleman!" indeed.

Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 12 2022 0:29 utc | 131

You've just done an excellent job explaining exactly why they're mercenaries!
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 12 2022 0:03 utc | 126

What is the definition of a mercenary ?

It is a salaryman of a private enterprise. This enterprise provides a service to its customer, which could be a state or a private entity.

These guys seems to be under direct contract with the regular uk army, like any other part of of it.

In France, we have the "légion étrangère" [foreign legion]. Most of its recruitment comes from the whole planet Earth. Nobody believes they are mercenaries. Apart from their foreign citizenship they are like any other memeber of the french militaries.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jun 12 2022 0:30 utc | 132

Could part of the EU leadership be cynically hoping for a Russian victory to get Ukraine 'off their hands'?

Sure, they wanted to defeat and humiliate Russia when this started. However, now Ukraine is and will be a huge burden. It will drain their militaries and economies while sanctions wreck their GDP.

Consider: they gave them junk weapons and they drag their feet about Ukraine getting in the EU. Remember how they abandoned Libya to anarchy and death after pretending to care about its people.

So to them, mass death on the battlefield is a good thing. Less trouble for them in the future. And Zelensky goes along with it. Likewise with Poland taking a cut of territory. And if Ukraine is finished, maybe the sanctions fade from relevance.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 12 2022 0:31 utc | 133

@ Parisian Guy | Jun 12 2022 0:30 utc | 132

Honestly, we don't know who's paying them. All we know is that they're not Ukrainians and that they're combatants. That's enough to ensure their lack of qualification for POW status.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 12 2022 0:45 utc | 134

Posted by: MarkU | Jun 11 2022 23:03 utc | 106

This is precisely what Martyanov harps on every day - there are no "experts" any more in the West, except a few buried in the Pentagon and perhaps some in the intelligence services and a few in academia. In his opinion, almost everyone else is an uneducated imbecile with a "soft degree" in law, economics or social "sciences" with no clue how a real economy, real technology and real geopolitics works.

I have to say, the results speak for themselves, so he must be correct. In the end, this is why Russia and China will beat the West: the West is delusional and incompetent. They don't know what to do and don't do what they do well.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 12 2022 0:48 utc | 135

CarlD | Jun 11 2022 22:33 utc | 94
____

Ah yes, creating "a land without people for a people without land." Sounds familiar.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jun 12 2022 0:51 utc | 136

Don't question your habits.
If you repeatedly spit into the long drink glasses of other guests at night in the "Goldene Handschuh", with a blood alcohol level of 1.2, counter possible protests with a reference to your habitual right.

Joe Tzu

Posted by: marquesatheresa | Jun 12 2022 0:53 utc | 137

The reason Donetsk continues to receive artillery strikes is because the defensive perimeter around the city hasn't been expanded whatsoever since the SMO began, which IMO is tragic and a huge sin on the part of Russia's military planners. A look at a battlefield map will show the plan is to attack the fortifications facing Donetsk from the North and rear, but that's taking far too long to develop. Russia's General Staff might reply with some sort of justification, which IMO would need to be very convincing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 11 2022 20:48 utc | 57

The reason Russia isn't moving heaven and earth to stop the shelling in Donetsk is that politically, it is quite advantageous for Russia for the Nazis to keep shelling Donetsk. Every shell that falls kills a civilian in Donetsk is a propaganda weapon for Russia to prove to the world that their special operation was necessary. Yes the West ignores this, like they did the shelling for the last 8 years. But the rest of the world does not, and those are the countries that Russia needed to persuade. If the shelling actually stops, there will be a lot more pressure on Russia, from allies, to come to the negotiating table.

So the Russians haven't made it a huge priority to hunt down and destroy the mobile Nazi units that are shelling civilians. IMHO, I could be wrong and there could be logistic obstacles.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 0:57 utc | 138

As supreme commander in chief, Joe Biden couldn't remember his own address. He knows it's in Washington, somewhere, a big white house. In fact, his advisors keep having to remind him of which country Zelenskyy is President. Thank God, safe-hands Hunter is on call 24/7, unless he's on a crack & hooker binge.

USA USA USA

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 12 2022 0:59 utc | 139

Lloyd "Raytheon" Austin III: "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is what happens when oppressors trample the rules that protect us all. It’s what happens when big powers decide that their imperial appetites matter more than the rights of their peaceful neighbors." 

karlof1 | Jun 11 2022 22:40 utc | 99
_____

Utterly nauseating, said without a hint of self-awareness, embarrassment or shame. That's the difference between a professional and the rest of us ordinary mortals.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jun 12 2022 1:13 utc | 140

@ 138 Kingsmeg

A bit cynical comrade!

What about Russia killing a few of its own troops to get the Russian public behind them.

Logistics, Field Hospitals/Services, Demining, Reconstruction, Administrative/Civil Stability, Economy, and all those pesky UAF soldiers meanwhile firing. If you're going to commit to the New Republics best to capture and secure than make your way to Kiev in a month and look back at the huge task/carnage behind you.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 12 2022 1:18 utc | 141


@Republicofscotland #22

Unfortunately, all the female Ukies have left town to become prostitutes in the West!

Posted by: Sam Smith | Jun 11 2022 19:16 utc 27

Well,for the unfortunate women of Ukraine, a bit better than the Peshmerga Women's Battalion in Syria. The head choppers eliminated most of them after western media showcased them training, which, IMO, was just painting a massive "come and get some of this" target on their backs.

Posted by: ERing46Z | Jun 12 2022 1:29 utc | 142

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 11 2022 20:55 utc | 59
+
"@59 Thanks for that. It's fascinating to see hoe CRT has become an integral part of Marxist thinking."
Posted by: dh | Jun 11 2022 21:55 utc | 78

CRT is not any part of Marxism, much less "integral", that's simply b*llsh*t - you either don't know what Marxism is, or are intentionally creating confusion.

+
"This is cultural Marxism. The US Democrat party and media are currently plagued by this thinking. Many in EU etc don’t understand because they don’t have a large black population. There is a gigantic backlash forming against the democrats because of BLM and the stolen election. Democrats used the BLM to create a fake structure in the media to give some sort of plausible cause for the shift to Biden other than sheer fraud."

Posted by: Bobolinski | Jun 11 2022 22:56 utc | 103

You have a reply posted on the latest Open Thread - NOT ukraine, so as not to be guilty of gross thread derailment.

1) I agree with upwards of 90% of the content in the linked articles - "The Woke Issue!" and "CRT FACT SHEET"

2) Pinning this b*llsh!t on Marxism is plain slander: liberal americans invented this. Marxism is opposed to Liberalism and the US of A is no point of reference for Marxism.

3) The "CRT FACT SHEET" is in great part an explanation of why and how CRT/WOKE is NOT Marxism - if you're going to link actual political sources, you better f***ing stick to them.

Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 1:37 utc | 143

@ watcher | Jun 11 2022 23:48 utc | 122
the USA and allies are simply ignorant and stupid
. . .and they smile all the way the bank with their ill-gotten gains.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 1:48 utc | 144

There're more to this than the Differentials in Available Artillery Rounds.

Air Power and Guided Missiles;
Logistics Chain;
Rotating Troops;

All are Focusing on Dwindling UKR Ground Gear. Negligible Naval and Air Combat.

NATO+EU Leadership who Announced their Shipments of Mid Range Weapons Platforms (HIMARS which can be rigged with Smuggled/Homemade Ordnance; and Rigging the Harpoon Anti-Ship Missile, for instance) have induced Lavrov to state that "Security Lines" would be pushed back further.

*****
Interesting Theme of this SMO is "De-Militarization and De-Nazification":

RUS and Seceding Regions are going to - Liberate and Protect Seceding Regions. Once they've Secured those, my hunch is that they're going to continue taking out Military/Logistics Infrastructure of Kiev-Lviv (because Arms Smuggling will persist), set up No-Fly Zones, deploy PKOs and possibly DMZs with with SCO/CSTO/EAEU.

Posted by: IronForge | Jun 12 2022 1:50 utc | 145

@Posted by: Bobolinski | Jun 11 2022 23:48 utc | 121

The Democrats are one head of a two-headed hydra with the Republicans, who play out wonderful charades to make Americans mad about irrelevant crap, keeping attention far away from the owners of the country. Trump is just part of an intra-elite owner clash, between the internationalized elite and the more domestic types (real estate, domestic fossil fuel production etc.). The "deep state" are just operatives for the dominant part of the elite, the internationalists. Note that Obama had no problem being friends with GW Bush, and Trump hung in exactly the same groups as the Clintons. Trump's teacher was Roy Cohn, a brutal and deeply corrupt and disgusting New York power-broker who worked for the owners and the mob.

Stop looking at the shadows on the wall and go look at the reality at the mouth of the cave.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 12 2022 1:52 utc | 146

@ Rangewolf | Jun 12 2022 0:26 utc | 130
Peter the Great has taken a couple of provinces. Not impressive.
It ain't over 'till it's over.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 1:53 utc | 147

A bit cynical comrade!

What about Russia killing a few of its own troops to get the Russian public behind them.

Logistics, Field Hospitals/Services, Demining, Reconstruction, Administrative/Civil Stability, Economy, and all those pesky UAF soldiers meanwhile firing. If you're going to commit to the New Republics best to capture and secure than make your way to Kiev in a month and look back at the huge task/carnage behind you.

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 12 2022 1:18 utc | 141


War is a cynical business, tovarish. It takes a special kind of sociopath to prosecute a war successfully, even more so to calculate the odds and start one. But the cui bono test usually tells the truth. As I said, I could be wrong, I don't have a direct line to the Kremlin; we all try to make sense of this with the fragmented bits of info at hand.

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 1:56 utc | 148

re: the Cultural Marxism Meme

Since most Amuricans only understand soundbites, buzzwords, and narratives instead of long (and boring) arguments, here's the Reader Digest version of what "cultural Marxism" is really about.....

"Cultural Marxism" = Identity Politics Capitalism

Posted by: ak74 | Jun 12 2022 2:11 utc | 149

@ Roger | Jun 12 2022 1:52 utc | 146 with the apt description of the the American political beast.

My only quibble is with your interpretation that Trump is/was part of an oligarch squabble. I see his presidency as a last gasp attempt at Hollywood/Mafia type bulling on the international stage and we know how that worked out....I don't see him back but we are in crazy land.

I more see the red pill folks wanting to make sure that the blue pill folk have their "liberalness" delegitimatized by the economic crash. Got to keep the focus off the folks behind the curtain that China and Russia are pointing out to the rest of the world.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 12 2022 2:13 utc | 150

Posted by: Roger | Jun 12 2022 1:52 utc | 146

excellent post. Roy Cohn was an inveterate cold warrior, too, hated the USSR and leftists in general, and developed something of a rivalry with the right wing Kennedy family, particularly the commie hunter RFK before his purported conversion.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 12 2022 2:16 utc | 151

Mercouris' (short - he's traveling) video today covers the fact that by admitting they're losing the artillery war, Ukraine is essentially admitting they're losing the overall war. He also speculates that Ukraine is setting up an alibi for losing the war by telling the Ukrainian people that Ukraine lost because they asked for NATO weapons and NATO didn't supply them in sufficient quantities. I'd say that's likely.

Ukraine Admits Losing 'Artillery War' and Therefore the War Itself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZb-ba4WqGs

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 12 2022 2:21 utc | 152

The comedian and Ursula smell the money!
. . .from ukrinform--
Ursula von der Leyen noted that many topics were discussed at the meeting with the President of Ukraine, including joint work on the Platform for Reconstruction of Ukraine.
"With the help of this platform, we want to create a common direction of movement, to have a clear road map of how to synchronize our joint work on the reconstruction of Ukraine to help it rise from the ruins," said the President of the European Commission.
According to her, this process should be fully led by Ukraine, while the European Commission has extensive experience in managing such situations and investments in reforms.
"We want to ensure reforms that will improve the lives of Ukrainians, so that we can rebuild Ukraine and make it attractive for investment and doing business, and so that Ukraine can move towards the European Union," said the President of the European Commission. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 2:35 utc | 153

This is a full staged hybrid war and tactics Russian armed forced changed to is shaped by many constraints such as:
- Russians are prepared for long duration war as expected/projected important events are spread over the months and years. Events such as - China move on Taiwan, winter season in Europe, elections in USA, hunger in Africa, inflation dynamics ... they'll move appropriate figures on the chess table for maximum impact. Let say, they can supply food to help against famine and get support from countries in exchange. Like they did with Turkey when food oil shortages were experienced. question - did application of Montreux Convention on straits help Russians, or NATO?

- We can only guess whether their actions are synched and agreed in advanced with China. Perhaps, at least some of them

- prevalence of artillery (according to some published expert estimations Russian's fire power is 20-40 times more than that of Ukraine)

- lack of precision guided weapons to use on mass scale. Currently those are mainly limited to the laser guided artillery shells (aka Krasnopol). The information on precision cruise missiles Kalibr, hypersonic Kinzal, some antiship missiles stock can not be properly estimated. I haven't heard of laser guided KAB bombs usage. Perhaps they do care about fighter jets, after few got shot down by Ukraine's air defense forces. Yet, according to the wiki they should have GLONASS guided missles for MRLS such as 9М542. But so far no news were reported on these. Some reports were on newly designed loitering munitions (Kub) but those have limited warhead and possibly are efficient against only non-armored targets.

- Lack of surveilance drones - both sides using Chinese consumer (and industrial equipped with night vision cameras, such as for HVAC inspection) grade quadcopters, some volunteers on Russian side are even buying them and send to the frontline. You can find some info on Russian telegram channels. Military surveilance and tactical drones are limited - big question to Shoigu. He and others are failed to deliver such despite projection and reports (MIC is corrupt everywhere).

- Easy supply/logistics compared to longer West to Ukraine logistic arm.

- Weapon production (there were news that some Russian MIC companies adopted 24 hours working day, 3 teams per day).

- Limitation put on land forces. Looks like, Russian war scenario could include escalation and they are trying to keep and save reserves. Some rumors are on mobilization among old veterans that left army not long time ago - i have heard that few of them are fleeing to neighbour countries to avoid involvement. Can't confirm this though.

Seems, Russian are putting threats on important defense points, thus forcing Kiyev to send reserves there, and using their superior artillery forces to grind them. Amid daily destruction of most motivated and experienced Ukraine forces, whoever comes as a replacement couldn't take that role because of limited time to accomplish full grade mil art learning. There are different estimation when break at Ukrine side will happen. Someone is saying about 200K losses or around. Will Poland intervene in such case? Did Poland forget that GB left them alone when Germany went on them?

In my understanding Zelenski is an enemy of Ukraine as he allowed this to happen and he is as guilty as Putin and Biden for human losses (EU is also in this business too). He can't fight for independence where the sole fighting isn't about that, and much higher stakes beats his case. Each day of war takes Ukraine closer to the complete destruction. He is either idiot or paid puppet or both of them.

Day or two ago some pro Russian experts started to mention possibility of coup against Zelenski. Looks like mixed signal - either part of information war, or message to the Ukraine high range mil.

Posted by: asehi | Jun 12 2022 2:40 utc | 154

@ Richard Steven Hack | Jun 12 2022 2:21 utc | 152

zelensky blaming - nato and etc, and biden blaming zelensky and etc....

it is what losers do.. blame others.... there is never enough blame to go around, lol....

i liked this post from les7 on the previous ukraine open thread -

@ Les7 | Jun 11 2022 5:29 utc | 207
Shaping the battlefield.

About day 5, I called BS on this being a war. I stand by that statement. It is not a war. It is the construction of a battlefield, setting up a sandbox to confront and DISCREDIT Nato.

In Syria the rah rah Russia crowd chafed at the slow pace of the Russia directed Syrian military campaign.

They had their reasons then, and they have them now. A little reflection on their goals in Syria would make clear their goals here.

Syria is still not resolved. Who says Ukraine will ever be ‘resolved?’ Syria prevented and continues to prevent a Russian Civil War- ISIS was to be deployed in the stans.

Ukraine, long and drawn out, prevents and will continue to prevent another form of civil defeat planned for Russia.

Nato and the West must not just be defeated, they must be DISCREDITED, so that no one is tempted to buy into their delusion for decades.

A long game, a very long game and a battlefield to play it out... that's what this is about."

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 2:49 utc | 155

mariupol azov metal plant round 2...

it is what nazis do...

"According to Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador of the LPR to the RF, an unspecified number of civilians exited the Azot Plant from the second checkpoint (under allied control). According to him there *could be* up to 500 more in the plant. However, other estimates run as high as 1,000 civilians. Allegedly the Ukrainian troops at the plant have tried to negotiate safe passage for themselves and their civilian hostages (if hostages they are) out of the plant towards Lysychansk. Those demands have been flatly rejected."

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 2:58 utc | 156

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 0:57 utc | 138

Yes I agree that the shelling of Donetsk helps with International sympathy however the greatest effect is maintaining the huge support at home in Russia. There is extreme anger regarding the continued deaths occurring in the Donbass of civilians. The human shield narrative also plays very well at home.

Posted by: Undercutter | Jun 12 2022 3:00 utc | 157

"...why should France&Germany care about "Western alliance ?". It doesn't exist.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jun 11 2022 23:57 utc | 123

You may not believe this, but I wish your scenario were feasible and would succeed in making France and Germany not care about Western alliance. As a matter of fact I think it would please most people who frequent MOA. I am a pessimist in this case, but I wish you were right nevertheless.

Posted by: Pagan | Jun 12 2022 3:03 utc | 158

from Defense News
The UK is concerned about loss of technology knowledge.
WASHINGTON — As a new generation of western-made arms travels to Ukraine’s front-line forces, donor nations are assessing the risk of revealing sensitive technology to Russia’s military if the equipment is captured.
Such considerations have become more prevalent as Soviet-age stocks used in the fight dwindle and Ukrainian leaders request weapons with longer ranges and better combat punch, according to British defense officials, who spoke on condition of not being named due to the sensitivity of the subject.
Earlier this month, U.S. and U.K. leaders announced the transfer of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, and M270 Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems, or MLRS, to Ukraine. The weapons are considered crucial in defeating long-range artillery pieces used by the Russians to slice deeper into the Donbas.
Given the American and British weapons’ ranges of 70-80 km, the systems are considered far enough away from the frontline to mitigate immediate capture risks. But losing sophisticated, shorter-range weapons like the British Brimstone missile, which features onboard target recognition technology, would be more worrisome, according to officials. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 3:10 utc | 159

from NYTimes
Biden Races to Expand Coalition Against Russia but Meets Resistance
Many Asian, African and Latin American nations are maintaining ties with Russia as the United States tries to isolate President Vladimir V. Putin and end the war in Ukraine.

With growing urgency, the Biden administration is trying to coax or cajole countries perceived by Washington as neutral in the conflict — including India, Brazil, Israel and the Gulf Arab states — to join the campaign of economic sanctions, military support and diplomatic pressure to further isolate Russia and bring a decisive end to the war. So far, few if any of them have been willing, despite their partnerships with the United States on other major security matters.
Mr. Biden is making an extraordinary diplomatic and political gamble this summer in planning to visit Saudi Arabia, which he had called a “pariah.” And on Thursday, he met with President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil on the sidelines of the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles. Mr. Bolsonaro visited Moscow the week before Russia invaded Ukraine and declared “solidarity” with President Vladimir V. Putin.
In Los Angeles, Mr. Bolsonaro pre-empted any push by Mr. Biden on Russia, saying that while Brazil remained open to helping end the war, “given our reliance on certain foreign players, we have to be cautious. I have a country to manage,” he said. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 3:23 utc | 160

re: The Big Mo
The Big Mo ("Big Momentum") is behavioral momentum that operates on a large scale. The concept originally applied to sporting events in the 1960s in the United States, as momentum appeared to have an effect on a team's performance. Then it got used in politics. Bush-43 used it.
headline - NYTimes
Momentum in Ukraine Is Shifting in Russia’s Favor - With the Ukrainians running short of guns and ammunition, and pressures growing on Western governments, Moscow’s fortunes may be rising.
The Big Mo - Russia seems to have it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 12 2022 3:34 utc | 161

"Biden told the world for weeks that Russia was going to attack" what does that mean? The Russian SMO started on 24 Feb, after the Russians believed that a full scale attack by western Ukraine was planned and imminent. Who to believe?

Since 2014, USA has been arming w Ukraine with all sorts of weapons, and they have been consistently bombing the east. This war by USA/ NATO was planned and carefully orchestrated for years.
The key was always going to be the sanctions weapon, which as Putin stated: "was always going to happen". Prior negotiations was always a smokescreen, but Russia like China have very educated and learned people running their governments. We have ignorant idiots.

Zelinsky is a Jewish comic, just like the dozens in America, who are part of telling you what to think. It is the Ukraine army superiors that conduct the war, controlled by the Nazi elements and USA/ NATO. He is just a mouthpiece for western propaganda and will soon be discarded.

There will be no negotiations for the game is now played by Russia. Russia has been trying to be accurate through all these western lies and propaganda, and I wonder" what's the use". Just blow them all up".

The Russians are accurate in what they say regarding the military situation. The west has always been lying, and even when reality sets in, their reasons will always have a 'win' slant. Such is the shit we live in.

Posted by: Karl luck | Jun 12 2022 3:41 utc | 162

Germany sends weapons to Ukraine on Anniversary of German invasion of Russia, if this is story true (the source is the Ukraine ambassador who has every motive to lie about the date), Then the Germans are just plain idiots and they deserve what happens to them. The Russian people would be furious with the symbolism of such an action and would further solidify in their support for Putin, the SMO and a confrontation with NATO. Regardless, b and others have already covered how the logistics supplying these weapons with ammunition make the movement of such resources into Russia ineffective. Still, it is entertaining to watch a failed policy crash and burned, my only hope is that after watching the Western idiots behind the Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Lydia and Syrian wars walk away without any consequences from their failures that they get finally get nailed to the wall over this one, even if it is only because this time it actually hurt the economies of their own nations. This time, the Western perpetrators need to be punished for their failure, it's highly unlikely, but if they aren't punished they will lead us into an even bigger disaster in a year or two (probably against China)

Posted by: Kadath | Jun 12 2022 3:42 utc | 163

Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 0:57 utc | 138

At around the time Russia recognized the two republics, it set up an evacuation line to get people out of the conflict zone. Evacuation is voluntary but the line is always there.

Russia wants a long war - for reasons other than propaganda value of nazi's shelling Donetsk.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 3:59 utc | 164

CarolDW | Jun 11 2022 22:38 utc | 97

Biden's repeated announcements that the Russians were going to attack was based less on intel and more on the knowledge that the US/Ukraine were going to take Donbas and Crimea by force. Battalions were massing in Mariupol
and shelling had increased fourfold.

Carol. This is the most significant comment posted here in this round of comments. /(Thus far)/
And it connects to:
Posted by: ian | Jun 11 2022 23:03 utc | 105
What happens when Zelensky says 'if only we had tactical nukes'?
Zelensky, the clown president, had ALREADY GONE THERE.
At the Munich Security Conference he repudiated the Bucharest Agreement and said….to the cheers and adulation of the crowd, that Ukraine would be reactivating it’s nuclear capability.
Matters escalated rapidly from that point, with Russian recognition of the republics, and by the next weekend, the first thrust of the “Special Military Operation” was blitzing to Kiev, and the US Embassy (and “highly likely” Zelensky) had fled to Lviv.

Posted by: Dimitri Xi Jones | Jun 11 2022 22:40 utc | 100
I predict the relationship with the Kiev regime and their western backers will further sour in the coming weeks. Just waiting for the mud slinging. Keen to see how Ukraine will spill the beans on the US biolabs and MH17.
The real dirt is on the Bidens, father and son. Pelosi, John Kerry+++.
With the January 6 shenanigans in the spotlight, Zelensky’s insurance policy should be to spill the beans on the Ukrainian diaspora involvement in Trump’s impeachment(s).

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 12 2022 4:04 utc | 165

Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 0:57 utc | 138

"The reason Russia isn't moving heaven and earth to stop the shelling in Donetsk is that..."

About a week ago 'Military Summary' (Youtube) & others have discussed the situation...

- the most heavily defended section of the front line (due to it's close proximity to Donetsk city)
- experienced quality troops in large numbers
- artillery embedded amongst the civilian population (Avdiivka)
- Ukrainian control the limited high ground
- frontal/ flank assault would result in very high casualties. The only viable route for attack is from the rear to capture the high ground (landfill/quarry area to the north west of Avdiivka) before any viable assault on Avdiivka can be made.

Patrick Lancaster did a video on Donetsk airport which gives a good indication on how close the front line is.

Posted by: ted001 | Jun 12 2022 4:10 utc | 166

A bit cynical comrade!

Posted by: WTFUD | Jun 12 2022 1:18 utc | 141
_____

Yes, thank you. Seems like an oblivious projection of perverse western consciousness. We're so marinated in propaganda, we can't even perceive true humanity. Everything is transactional.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jun 12 2022 4:14 utc | 167

ted001 | Jun 12 2022 4:10 utc | 166 "Avdiivka"

A quick look at a map shows Russia in not interested in pushing up from the south behind the fortified frontline.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1B1PLMhbHmG1aJ2-QNxHY1TksI6HlNhqF&ll=47.99677507744652%2C36.86354942699551&z=10

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 4:23 utc | 168

To richard@31 and a reply by @41,

USA and NATO has stated repeatedly that they are not going to war with Russia. That is not Russia Media.

To believe that USA/NATO can take on Russia is a fantasy, much like Hollywood, which has become even more absurd. It is all backtracking from here on in. Remember that.
@41, to believe that the racist hatred stupid Poles can ever send troops into western Ukraine and even USA/ NATO troops is never going to happen.

To understand that your superpower have to draw back to the 1997 borders, that was agreed to and Russia asked for is much more a reality. One sarmat, as explained can blow half of the east coast of America.

The Russians always told you not to play with fire, just like China did.

Kim Dotcom, the Australian Hi-Tech guru explained that every single American owes 800,000 to the debt. Even if paid off, 60 trillion will still be owning.

He does not understand the end game. Read it on Scott.net.
Boris Johnson was put into power to overthrow Theresa May as per a leaked E-mail by mi-6 head, who collaborated with USA.

Boris(Trump lite), was never going to be removed from power, just like the Jew Macron in France. We live in a world of complete imprisonment, except for still allowed states in USA that see the benefits of mutual trade with China. Forget governments.

Posted by: Karl luck | Jun 12 2022 4:31 utc | 169

The Stavka will soon be able to turn on the loudspeakers with the continuous tic-tac through the night warning those who still resist that every 60 seconds an ukro is taken from the front line dead or wounded. It worked in Stalingrad kessel.
Songs with strong tragic components such as tango it seens also have devastating effects.

Posted by: SCan | Jun 12 2022 4:40 utc | 170

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 4:23 utc | 168

A quick look at google maps reveals nothing of Russian intent.

Posted by: ted001 | Jun 12 2022 4:41 utc | 171

It is not to Peter the Great that VP should be compared but to Alexander Nevsky. Like his illustrious predecessor, VP has made a crucial choice for Russia, one that will have consequences for decades if not centuries to come. Like Nevsky, he has chosen the East over the West. Maybe that says something about the continuity of the Russian soul. Or about the never-ending depravity of the West.

Posted by: Robert Macaire | Jun 12 2022 4:53 utc | 172

Kissinger now asking repeatedly for USA to reach an agreement with Russia to focus on China, shows the extent of the Jewish supremecy over this world.

This man is responsible for killing millions in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos alone. The west remembers him with detente to China, where he and Nixon sought Chinese help in destroying the Soviet Union.

They also sought to make use of Chinese cheap labour for their capitalists corporations, most run by their own kind. Never ever thinking that the Chinese were equal in intelligence; a people with a history of thousands of years.

No, our USA well paid military with money could subjugate the entire world. The fact that we could print endless money would ensure that.

800 military bases around the world only scares the poor, oppressed and downtrodden. It does not scare Russia or even China, or even Iran.

This Ukraine war will reveal the real truth, and believe me; Putin is too soft with Europe.

Posted by: Karl luck | Jun 12 2022 4:57 utc | 173

A long game, a very long game and a battlefield to play it out... that's what this is about."

Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 2:49 utc | 155

Brilliant summary james, makes very good sense to me. We tend to forget we have Syria as a good example of Russian strategy and your idea about tying up ISIS away from other misadventures is very perceptive.
Russia displaying amazing capacity for a wide ranging and long game indeed.

Posted by: K | Jun 12 2022 5:07 utc | 174

I wonder how much resources are being diverted to area of Odessa in preparation for potential offensive in that direction.

Posted by: jared | Jun 12 2022 5:19 utc | 175

@Deltaeus91

Per the link I gave:

https://www.lauriemeadows.info/conflict_security/The-West's-Apartheid-Trading-System.html#Titanium

Russia has huge tonnages of ore in place (reserves). Yes, USA has as well, but the question is, how 'rich'?. Low grade ore is expensive to mine. And US imports titanium ore, which is suggestive.

Once processed - per link - into 'sponge' it is quite concentrated, and from there it is made into titanium metal of various grades and alloys.

Russia appears to be advanced in this complex metallurgy (and probably Japan, as well). In any event, supplying around a third of the kinds of titanium used in the aviation industry. Note the wink and nod mentioned for USA supplies of titanium aircraft parts....

Neon - same article - is similar. In the air, everywhere. But only a few places pull it out, and only a few can clean it of impurities to the purity needed for chip manufacture. There is neon and there is chip-grade neon.

btw, same article, amusing speculation on the yet to be released 'Russian Foreign Policy Concept', and on the fate of NATO...

Posted by: powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 5:34 utc | 176

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 11 2022 23:00 utc | 104:

...China lashes out at Outlaw US Empire for its ongoing theft of Syrian resources during its continued illegal occupation, "Beijing Blasts US Over ‘Flagrant Plunder’ of Syria’s Resources ‘in Broad Daylight’":

Thanks for continuously keeping us updated on nascent Chinese efforts in exposing the Empire's crime. The crimes have been so blatant and heinous. It reflects on the kind of people (or animals, if you will) the leadership circle of the Empire are. When the crimes, so blatant and galling, were indisputably exposed but the people of the Empire just shrug and continue supporting the same leadership, it also says something about the people of the Empire in the collective.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 12 2022 5:38 utc | 177

"Nato and the West must not just be defeated, they must be DISCREDITED, so that no one is tempted to buy into their delusion for decades.

"A long game, a very long game and a battlefield to play it out... that's what this is about."

james | Jun 12 2022 2:49 utc | 155
_____

Spot on. The entire world is watching all of this and has been for decades. Russia is slowly, painfully stripping the Outlaw US Empire of every shred of clothing it pathetically clings to. Perhaps it must be a gradual process, a progressive revelation so that the full realization of ZUSA's naked psychopathy is universally undeniable. This includes destroying the paper edifice of ponzi-debt finance capitalism. Such stepwise new world-making only starts in Ukraine and Syria and may take years even decades to achieve.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jun 12 2022 5:44 utc | 178

just hang in there ukraine. the uk papers tell me putin is dying of 7 kinds of cancer and maybe even been dead 2 years using a body double. you can see moscow if you believe its there...

Posted by: hankster | Jun 12 2022 5:48 utc | 179

Karl luck | Jun 12 2022 4:57 utc | 173
_____

Thank you for your encouraging insight. The old world order of Kissinger, Soros, Brzezinski, et al is losing its arthritic grip. Joy to the world!

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jun 12 2022 6:01 utc | 180

Body double, yes.. so don't matter if Put2 also goes, he ain't no-how running the show. Put1 went to Geneva a few years ago for the alleged birth of a daughter. A few weeks later Put2 emerged, with a new rounded face, no prominent chin, gained a non-Judo belly and more hair but lost his German and Judo skills and his wife skid-addled. Search old vid of Put1 with late Fr. Prez. Chirac.. a different guy to Put2. Maybe cia bumped off Put1, so double moved in.. who knows. Even locals called Put2, Put's ghost.

Posted by: Thomas Turk | Jun 12 2022 6:40 utc | 181

Posted by: Thomas Turk | Jun 12 2022 6:40 utc | 181

Put2 is a vast upgrade from Put1. I wouldn't go looking a gift horse in the mouth, if I were the Russian public.

The West could do with a body-double supplier of such quality ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 12 2022 6:44 utc | 182

Posted by: Thomas Turk | Jun 12 2022 6:40 utc | 181

Ever heard of ageing? He is nearly 70. Wish I still looked 29 years old but that's life.

Stress can increase cortisol levels and make your face puffy, as can certain medications for nothing too serious.

You can't can fake intelligence as evidenced by VVP's consistent communications skills over 20 years


Posted by: K | Jun 12 2022 6:53 utc | 183

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 12 2022 0:05 utc | 127

I have a lot of respect for what you write, but this stuff about the meaningful power of the British Queen seems bizarre. Have you a link to the discussion you reference?

Posted by: Pete Jones | Jun 12 2022 7:21 utc | 184

A few random observations:

1) Slow Pace of Allies (RF, DPR, LPR, etc) ? The Kiev nationalists have not-quite-Maginot-line layered and interlocking defensive lines created over the last 8 years. Reducing such defensive lines takes methodical action on the attacking side. Study the Red Army defense in depth deployment for the Battle of Kursk and then add 8 years of concrete plus trenches plus dugouts. Thats what the Allies are reducing.

Don't expect the Allies to send their people into a Battle of Somme style senseless slaughter.

2) Timetable ? The reduction of the Donbass Cauldron(s) will take until late June - Mid July. This Phase 2 operation started in ernest only a month ago. The remaining defenders are true dead enders, willing to fight to the last round. The wise defenders are surrending have been surrending as fast as they can manage.

3)Phase 3 ? The Allies are most likely going to try and liberate/isolate Odessa in the Fall Operations. Expect 2 months of prep. and 3 months of operations. Perhaps Phase 3 operations begin in late August and end early December. NATO is finally getting its act together. I haven't thought through NATO's measures to prevent the success of Phase 3, but there will be some effort of NATO's part to prevent Phase 3......

4)Cannon Fodder? Conscripting Women 16 to 60?!? signals NATO is desperate. We can also expect that Ukrainian citizens living in NATO countries will also be gang pressed into 'service'. My recollection is that before the SMO, some 2/3s of working age Ukrainian citizens had left for abroad. Many millions of these emigrants are in the RF, but millions are also living in NATO countries. Watch for signs that the press gangs are becoming active in NATO countries.....

5) 2023 and 2024 ? The questions us barflys should be asking ourselves is what is the likely NATO response to Allies success in the 2022 campaigns ? Its naive to expect that some ceasefire will be signed on 7.Jan 2023. NATO war planners are already preparing for the 2023 campaigns. Its my guess that NATO will use 2023 to prepare for a real counter offensive in 2024.

6) 2023 NATO actions ? First, NATO will be training a big Army from the press ganged hordes. This training will take place in NATO countries. Barflys can also expect lots of NATO efforts to destabilize the RF. We'll see lots of effort in the 'Stans to set up NATO bases. We'll see some sort of blockade effort to isolate Kalingrad. Geez, we might even see some NATO activity in the Artic. There will be yuge efforts on the part of NATO to bring Latin America ,India, and the Pacific refusniks into the sanctions regime. Finally, 2023 will have NATO prep. its citizenry for open warfare between NATO and the Allies. NATO needs to be able to join in the conflict openly, but its people aren't on board. Watch for NATO propaganda to go into overdrive on the need for NATO to join in the heroic-struggle-against-the-asiatic-hordes.

7) 2024 NATO actions ? A very big war with NATO destroying Ukraine in order to liberate it. Plus lots of actions all over the globe.

8)Allied Countermeasures? Thats outside my expertise. However, one can fully expect that the Allies and the Neutrals (China, India, Latin America) are able to game plan NATO's likely strategy and operations.

9) but what about the 2022 elections ? elections haven't mattered for some time now.

Posted by: exile | Jun 12 2022 7:46 utc | 185

Posted by: Pete Jones | Jun 12 2022 7:21 utc | 184

I know you ignored me and what I said, but whatever. We do what we can.

The link below goes to a document sworn by me back in July 2000. Perhaps it will help to open the eyes of those who really do not want to see.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/open-thread-2022-19.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0282e1477ebf200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef0282e1477ebf200b

Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 12 2022 7:58 utc | 186

Doctorow's Peace Plan

Gilbert Doctorow has posted this proposed peace plan here - https://nationalinterest.org/feature/building-lasting-settlement-ukraine-202920

I think that this is a bit of wishful thinking to put it politely

Key points
- Novorossiya to get self government followed by a referendum on eventual status
- Ukraine to have neutrality, but with supplies of "defensive" arms
- Normalisation of relations with Russia, end of all sanctions
- Pan Europe Security Treaty
- No mention of Crimea

What is in it for Russia?

This might have been acceptable last year - but would be seen as surrender by the Russian Public, The west is seen as not being capable of agreement and any truce would merely be a pause for the west to re-arm

This guy hopes for a post Putin, west friendly Russia - that ship has sailed

Utterly delusional

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jun 12 2022 7:59 utc | 187

ted001 | Jun 12 2022 4:41 utc | 171

Exactly. Zero movement at the south behind the fortified line. We constantly hear this crap about how hard it is to break through the fortified line but there has never been an offensive from the south behind that line and there is not a concentration of forces there to do so.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 8:10 utc | 188

Stop Press : as per other MSM The Guardian in UK is openly discussing the loss of the war, the loss of ‘Western’ support, and above all the loss of interest in the West for the conflict

To be ditched by Biden is bad enough, but to lose the cries and cheers of that huge public so committed to Ukraine as the harbinger of democracy and all our glorious values cherished since the founding of ‘European civilisation’…. well surely this is heart breaking

As if to say we told you the article is illustrated by a mournful photo of a mother and child posed in the best tradition of forlorn and abandoned – the French would call this un enterrement de prémière classe

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/ukraine-fears-western-support-will-fade-as-media-loses-interest-in-the-war

Posted by: Gerrard White | Jun 12 2022 8:12 utc | 189

When there is nothing left to do, you can cross your arms. There is no need to do it running.

Joe Tzu

Posted by: Leuk | Jun 12 2022 8:25 utc | 190

@Peter AU1

Do you really value a civilian life at 10x the value of a soldier?

Russia is taking about 1% of UKR forces out, everyday.
Russia is not taking any large amount of casualties.

They have a winning formula and just need to continue this for another month or two and all of Ukr donbass forces are gone. The Ukr forces that were planning on killing millions in donbass, all gone by fall. That seems a very good outcome.

Or they can storm headlong into fortified defenses and lose thousands of soldiers. I guess it is easy for you to recommend such kamikaze attacks for others to die in. You are not very good at balancing tradeoffs.

It is unfortunate to have to make the tradeoff between civilian deaths and military deaths, but that seems to be the situation.

Posted by: ct | Jun 12 2022 8:39 utc | 191

The reason Russia isn't moving heaven and earth to stop the shelling in Donetsk is that politically, it is quite advantageous for Russia for the Nazis to keep shelling Donetsk.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 0:57 utc | 138

I'm afraid there is at least a grain of truth in it. As we have already observed, Russia is in no hurry to end this war. Time is on its side. And I can't imagine why it shouldn't be possible to push the front back at least a few kilometers with Russian artillery in order to bring relieve to the city of Donetsk.
Didn't the Ukrainian forces just lament on their short range artillery?

Russia also plays the propaganda card, albeit less clumsily than the west. I absolutely agree with you, Kingsmeg.

Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 8:46 utc | 192

Russian navy takes out weapons supplied to Ukraine by the USA.


"The Russian Navy destroyed a large warehouse of weapons supplied by the West to Kiev with Kalibr missiles in the Ternopil region, Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, an official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, said on Saturday.
"High-precision sea-based kalibr long-range missiles near the village of Chortkiv Ternopil region destroyed a large warehouse supplied to the Kiev regime from UNITED STATES and European countries anti-tank missile systems, man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems and artillery shells to weapons systems," the general said."


https://ria.ru/20220612/ukraina-1794864958.html

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 12 2022 8:51 utc | 193

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 11 2022 18:03 utc | 3

Re the AZOT 'strike', it's a fake!

🇷🇺🇺🇦❗️Attention fake: video of the most powerful explosion "at the Azot plant in Severodonetsk", which is distributed by Ukrainian TG channels

- this is the footage of 2014 - Explosion of the warehouses of the Donetsk state-owned plant of chemical products.

Ukrainian channels are lying again.
You can check: https://youtu.be/6ig6heWO8XE

Posted by: Barofsky | Jun 12 2022 9:01 utc | 194

"never explain never apologize."
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jun 11 2022 23:42 utc | 117

yeah! just rule and divide!

Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 9:05 utc | 195

Gilbert Doctorow has posted this proposed peace plan here

This guy hopes for a post Putin, west friendly Russia - that ship has sailed

Utterly delusional

Posted by: Aslangeo | Jun 12 2022 7:59 utc | 187

Well, he is Brusselsed Russian, and had been wrong few times.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:13 utc | 196

"Establishment of another group of eight nations - China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran and Turkey - that is 24.4% ahead of the old group of developed countries in terms of GDP and purchasing power parity.

"The United States, with its own hands, has created conditions for countries willing to build an equal dialogue and mutually beneficial relations to actually establish a new G8 group with Russia," Volodin noted.

Oh the irony is certainly delicious! Only two technically European states, although several must do a better job of purging their Neoliberal elements and polices. You can see the stage being set for an upcoming international economic conference that changes or adds to the existing order and its institutions.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 11 2022 23:12 utc | 107

NONE European state, as I suppose you are talking about Russia and Turkey?
If this happens, and it looks like it will, the alarm bells will ring in the western elites.
But:
Why didn't Volodin mention South Africa, member of BRICS?

Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 9:18 utc | 197

Doctorow will be wrong a few more times in the future, once he gets to Brussels. He's on a bus to Brussels through Estonia. Then, he'd lose real contact with Russia again.

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:22 utc | 198

Very interesting interview of Bashir Al Assad his perspective is interesting. i enjoy his calm demeanour and upfront honesty.
He speaks of the current war in Ukraine beginning before communism and ww1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qxYz2T8G68

Posted by: K | Jun 12 2022 9:32 utc | 199

Gilbert Doctorow is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. Doctorow is an American citizen and a long-time resident of Brussels, Belgium.

Any comments needed?

Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:39 utc | 200

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