Ukraine Bits: Casualty Numbers, Kampfgruppen, Territorial Defense Forces
Over the last month I had come to the conclusion that the Ukraine is losing about 500 men per day due to intense Russian artillery fire. That number may have been too low.
I had mentioned high Ukrainian casualty rates due to Russian artillery fire on April 25:
The nearly 1,000 artillery missions in the last 24 hours and on the days before speak of intense preparations for upcoming attacks by Russian mechanized forces. Over all artillery will do the most damage to the Ukrainian troops. In World War II and other modern mechanized wars some 65% of all casualties were caused by artillery strikes. The recent rate on the Ukrainian side will likely be higher.
I revisited that on May 5:
The Russian military forces are grinding down Ukrainian ground forces by extensive use of heavy artillery. The Ukrainian artillery has been destroyed or lacks ammunition.The Ukrainian forces have orders to stay in their position and to hold the line. That only makes sure that Russian artillery strikes will destroy them.The order was given because the 'west' has pushed the Ukrainian president to not make peace with Russia. The consequence will be the assured destruction of the Ukrainian military.
Again on May 14:
The Ukraine is losing up to 15,000 men per month to the war. The total Ukrainian casualties, dead and wounded, are likely already at 50,000. The weapons the U.S. and others provide, are not sufficient to sustain the war. The Ukraine has only 3 days reserves of diesel and gasoline left. The main parts of its forces are immobile and are getting surrounded by Russian forces. Their situation is hopeless.
On May 20 I wrote:
[I]f one trusts the daily 'clobber list' the Russian Ministry of Defense puts out all positions of the Ukrainian army are under heavy artillery fire and it is losing about 500 men per day. There are additional Russian effective strikes on training camps, weapon storage sites and transport hubs all over the country.
In a recent interview with Newsmax the Ukrainian comedian and president Volodimir Zelenski mentioned casualty numbers:
"The most difficult situation is in the east of Ukraine and southern Donetsk and Luhansk."The situation is very difficult; we're losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters."
That sums up to 600 casualties per day which is about 18,000 per month which is even higher than my earlier estimates. However Zelenski has interest in lowballing the real number.
As Ivan Katchanowski from the University of Ottawa points out, the numbers Zelenski gives relate to only one region and only to a specific category of people:
Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 4:57 UTC · Jun 1, 2022#Zelenskyy statement about 60-100 soldiers killed & about 500 wounded per day in combat is minimal casualty number. Missing in action, who are killed, are not reported as killed. Casualty numbers also likely exclude territorial defense, police, SBU, etc & non-combat casualties.
#Zelenskyy statement about 60-100 #Ukrainian soldiers killed & 500 wounded per day refers to #Donbas. It excludes casualties of #RussiaUkraineWar in #Kharkiv region & Southern #Ukraine & casualties of daily Russian missile attacks in other regions of #Ukraine. #UkraineRussiaWar
The real numbers for the dead and wounded on the Ukrainian side may well be double the numbers Zelenski mentioned.
There are at least five different groups of security forces in Ukraine. The normal uniformed police and the SBU which is a secret internal police and political enforcer power derived from the former KGB. The regular military forces includes the army, navy and airforce. The National Guard is different in that it was established under the Ministry for the Interior from fascist militant groups like the Azov, Aidar, Dnepr-1 and 2, C-14 and other battalions. These are actively fighting but not soldiers in any real sense.
Then there are the really screwed ones, the Territorial Defense Force:
It is formed by a core of part-time reservists, usually former combat veterans, and in cases of war can be expanded to local civilian volunteers for local defense, in a case of mass mobilization. That core is expected to lead the mobilized volunteers.The Territorial Defense Forces also contain the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine, formed by foreign volunteers.
Other details of interest:
On 25 May 2021, President Volodymyr Zelensky introduced a law to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's national parliament) "on the basis of national resistance" [...] The old Territorial Defence units would be now organized under the new Territorial Defense Forces as a standalone branch of the Armed Forces. Veterans of the Donbas War from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guard of Ukraine and other paramilitary forces involved in the conflict would provide a backbone to train and lead the mobilized volunteers. [...] The creation of the branch coincided with the Russian military build-up which had been ongoing since 2021.On 11 February 2022, the planned number of volunteers was increased to 1.5 to 2 million.
...
By 6 March, almost 100,000 people had volunteered for the Territorial Defense Forces. Some units stopped accepting volunteer as they reached their operational limit. There were reports of Ukrainian volunteers paying bribes or using connections to join the Territorial Defense.
In February, when the Ukraine government ordered a general mobilization, many people 'voluntarily' entered the Territorial Defense forces to avoid being drafted into the real military. The Territorial Defense battalions were responsible for local defense in their area of the country. People who 'volunteered' for them hoped to stay in their home area instead of being send to the battle front.
However in early May the Ukrainian parliament adopted a law "On the Fundamentals of National Resistance" (machine translation):
Territorial Defense Forces will be withdrawn from the Armed Forces and receive separate funding. They are given a leading role in the organization and implementation of the tasks of territorial defense of Ukraine.The law defines such concepts as "national resistance", "territorial defense", "resistance movement", "voluntary formation of a territorial community", etc. changed the law on the Territorial Defense Battalions.
The Territorial Defense Forces are no longer part of the military. Are their members still 'soldiers' or are they 'volunteers'? It is not clear to me under who's command they now are.
One consequence of the law was that the Territorial Defense units were no longer territorial but could be ordered to fight all over the country.
As the Washington Post recently reported:
Before the invasion, Lapko was a driller of oil and gas wells. Khrus bought and sold power tools. Both lived in the western city of Uzhhorod and joined the territorial defense forces, a civilian militia that sprang up after the invasion.
...
They were given orders to head to the western city of Lviv. When they got there, they were ordered to go south and then east into Luhansk province in Donbas, portions of which were already under the control of Moscow-backed separatists and are now occupied by Russian forces. A couple dozen of his men refused to fight, Lapko said, and they were imprisoned.
They were put onto the front line as cannon fodder and later deserted.
In a regular military there will be one unit (brigade, battalion, company) assigned to a specific length of the frontline. A brigade commander will put his mechanized infantry battalions out on the front next to each other and his artillery battalion further back. He may decide to keep a company or two of tanks in reserve. The officers and NCOs in a brigade will usually know each other as they have trained together while growing through the ranks. Such units can fight and coordinated well because their officers and soldiers have worked and partied together for some time and know each other by heart.
Unfortunately for Ukraine it no longer has any complete brigade units. These have fallen apart due to high casualty rates and material losses. This seems to have led to a change of the command structure.
During the last years of World War II the German Wehrmacht often used Kampfgruppen (combat groups). These were a mix of remnants of mostly destroyed regular units put together under the command of one officer and often formed for a specific task. The subunits came from different command cultures and localities and would often not know each other. They were not trained to the same level. To coordinate them was difficult.
There are signs that the Ukraine is now using such a Kampfgruppen concept. Several recent reports of this or that operation or town lost or gained by Ukrainian forces named three or four involved brigades. However, when one looked at the size of those places or operations there was no way that so many full fledged units were involved.
I have come to understand that these were Kampfgruppen like formations under which remnants of the three or four former brigades were subsumed.
Now what happens to a Territorial Defense unit that gets assigned to a Kampfgruppe? As it is most likely the weakest and least armed unit it will be put into those places where the highest loses can be expected. The commander of the Kampfgruppe will naturally keep the forces of those remnant mechanized units he knows best close to himself or in reserve while the infantry cannon fodder of the Territorial Defense unit is ordered to man the frontline. These units are likely to have the highest numbers of casualties.
It is doubtful that Zelenski's numbers included their dead and wounded.
We can therefore somewhat safely assume that the real casualty numbers are now some 200 dead and 800 wounded per day and maybe even above that. How many more will be 'missed in action'?
Before the war the public health system in Ukraine was already in a miserable state. Medical personal that had the means will long have left the country. How will it be able to handle such high numbers of casualties?
Shrapnel wounds caused by artillery are often nasty and more complicate than simple gun shots. If not cared for immediately they are likely to get infected and tend to not heal well.
All this lets me fear that many of the wounded will not receive the necessary care and will not survive the war. Will their death in this or that improvised field hospital be counted as a combat death?
High casualty numbers are not good for morale so Kiev will likely try to avoid to include them.
There is already trouble in the ranks of Ukrainian army. Several several groups of soldiers have called out publicly to stop the senseless waste of life.
At what point will the Ukrainian military or the Territorial Defense units turn against the Zelenski regime?
Posted by b on June 1, 2022 at 17:27 UTC | Permalink
next page »The Ukrainian fatalities are astronomical.
One young Ukrainian soldier at the end of his rope decided to surrender to the Russians.
His heartbreaking call to his crying mom is on video.
He tells his mom; it was all a lie mom...Russians are the good guys.
VIDEO https://youtu.be/o8T1QD-VFgI
Posted by: Dean Oneil | Jun 1 2022 17:39 utc | 2
There is no honor among thieves.
Lets not put down thieves by comparing them to George Bush
Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Jun 1 2022 17:41 utc | 3
All of which imputes a high degree of accuracy/credibility to the 404 casualty figures reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense. QED.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 17:42 utc | 4
It's crazy that these UA guys are still listening to orders! Clearly, there is no plan but for them to die.
Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-06-01
I'm sure there is a line in Eastern Ukraine at which Russia would prefer to draw the new borders. It's probably where the ethnic Russian population is low. I'm wondering if the relatively gentle treatment ends once that border is reached?
Posted by: Will | Jun 1 2022 17:49 utc | 5
It is likely that numbers of killed uniformed ukrainians - of all origins - is higher and IMHO closer to 500 per day. This mainly due to the numerous bodies littering the fields and accounted as "missing".
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jun 1 2022 17:49 utc | 6
Interesting Russian helicopter cockpit video surfaced today. Video itself shows action over Izyum area. Audio is a mix of cockpit communication between pilot, copilot and helicopter computer represented by female voice. At 1:17 this female voice announces rear hemisphere threat to helicopter, classified as Gepard. I am not sure how accurate this L 370 Vitebsk system is, but this is first indirect confirmation of battle use of German AA system (Flakpanzer Gepard).
Posted by: Misa | Jun 1 2022 17:50 utc | 7
Oddly enough, the air defense of the continental US is the job of the Air National Guard. They, all reservists, also fly most of the refueling tankers, and a lot of the transport aircraft.
So, Bush was flying a front line interceptor while he was in the Air National Guard. Towards the end of his enlistment, he was transferred to transports, because his unit was to be refitted with new model aircraft, and his retraining would have left no time for actual service.
Bush did avoid Vietnam, and the very high aircraft loss rates there, but he didn't get a cushy, risk-free assignment. Lot's of people got better deals, like student deferments and flight to Canada.
Posted by: bob sykes | Jun 1 2022 17:53 utc | 8
this is unfortunately part of the denazification process. zelensky wants every man to go to the front and see for himself what he was supported over the years.
Posted by: Zelenski | Jun 1 2022 17:53 utc | 9
White House blames Russian President Vladimir Putin for the RECORD 60% rise in US gasoline prices in recent months. - Media
With natural gas providing 40% of electricity plus heating and even air conditioning, and the prices that almost tripled, utility bills will rise even more. The question is, would being nice with Putin benefit "American family", sad for Ukrainian friends as it may be.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 1 2022 17:55 utc | 10
Various people have discussed this:
I think that it is highly likely (in fact, virtually certain) that the Odessa oblast (province) will be liberated by Russian forces and become, via referendum, part of the Novorossia area which seems to be coming into being.
Firstly, because it is a pro-Russian area. Secondly because of the infamous massacre in 2014 at the Trade Union building, where pro-Russians demonstrating against the coup were murdered: that has to be avenged. It's a prime denazification zone.
Thirdly: the famous MoA historical Ukraine map:
Putin's 21st February speech:
"Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia, more precisely, Bolshevik, communist Russia. This process began immediately after the revolution of 1917...
"As a result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with good reason be called 'Vladimir Ilyich Lenin's Ukraine'. He is its author and architect. This is fully confirmed by archive documents ... And now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call decommunisation. Do you want decommunisation? Well, that suits us just fine. But it is unnecessary, as they say, to stop halfway. We are ready to show you what real decommunisation means for Ukraine."
I think the bit above (my bold) means that they are going to at least roll back the 1922 borders. It makes strategic and economic sense anyway, particularly to create a land corridor to Transnistria.
Posted by: JulianJ | Jun 1 2022 18:05 utc | 11
Your piece begs the question:
What are the Ukrainians and NATO trying to achieve by continuing to lose so many men in this way without any military gains to show for it?
@3
of course not but let those fools believe in it :)
Posted by: Macpott | Jun 1 2022 18:10 utc | 13
@ Scorpion | Jun 1 2022 18:08 utc | 12
Pointless to address your question to 404 and NAZO. Instead direct it primarily to Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and their ilk; secondarily to their paid whores in the Capitol Building, White House, and Pentagram.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 18:14 utc | 14
Scorpion | Jun 1 2022 18:08 utc | 12
I agree: it's insane. I've thought for a while that it's not a war, but a massacre. However the globalist ruling class seems all to be insane: consider the idea of cutting off your own vital energy supplies to destroy your own economy, not your target's.
I have a small interest in energy and its usage, but I am a layman. The moment I heard they were proposing sanctions on Russian oil and gas I thought: "That's crazy: it will suicide the economy."
Posted by: JulianJ | Jun 1 2022 18:16 utc | 15
@12 They probably think they're winning. Just a question of more money and weapons. Perhaps they expect Biden to ride to the rescue if things get really bad.
Posted by: dh | Jun 1 2022 18:19 utc | 16
When command thinks it needs to execute a few deserters and shirkers, there probably is a morale problem among the troops. Or an incompetence problem among command.
When the order of battle includes shooting in the back troops who hesitate to charge forward into the thick of useless death, command may be incompetent. Or more likely, command may intend to exterminate the troops.
We know the nazis and football hooligans wish to exterminate Moskals.
But here we have the fathers and grandfathers of the nazis and football hooligans being exterminated.
Also, we have mothers and sisters, but not fathers and brothers, encouraged to flee the land.
So, who wants to exterminate Ukrainki? Who wants to depopulate Ukraina?
Posted by: Otter | Jun 1 2022 18:22 utc | 17
@wagelaborer 1
That's just the Tip of the Iceberg.
IIRC, Young Dubya was AWOL most of the time; and when his Unit Deployed to South Vietnam - Dubya was AWOL.
Quite a few Members of his Unit didn't return home Alive.
Posted by: IronForge | Jun 1 2022 18:24 utc | 18
"Bush did avoid Vietnam, and the very high aircraft loss rates there, but he didn't get a cushy, risk-free assignment."
Fair enough. However, IIRC, the issue with Bush's service was not his unit's official duties, but his lack of attendance. There was even some controversy whether he had simply gone AWOL at the end rather than being discharged. Bush was hard drinking/drugging/partying guy in college before and civilian life afterward (hence his mental incapacity as president) so it's not likely the TAF would let him near a plane.
OTOH, the movie The Starfighters, which I've referenced before regarding the F-111 (whose poor performance the movie is intended to cover up) depicts AF pilots in exactly that way, even having the AF distribute "bennies" (amphetamine) to hung over pilots. Ah, simpler times!
Posted by: James J. O'Meara | Jun 1 2022 18:25 utc | 19
Judging from the daily sit reports the UAF are still putting up credible, and quite fierce, resistance all along the current contact line in the Donbass arc. Perhaps this is all a rearguard effort at this point, allowing the retreat of forces back toward the towns along the Krasni Torets River. Should they begin a serious pullback toward the Dnipr I would consider the east army finished as a fighting force and expect, if this occurred relatively soon, Kiev to start making serious noises about negotiations before Russia can move on Odessa - in order to try and preserve their Black sea access. If Russia thinks this situation might occur I would expect them to try and move against Odessa before hand - although I don't believe they have enough forces in Kherson to do this. Perhaps they could accumulate forces in Crimea ahead of such a move and retain some element of surprise. Not sure if they have any means to clear the coastal mines and sufficiently degrade coastal defenses to consider coming in from the sea.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 1 2022 18:28 utc | 20
White House blames Russian President Vladimir Putin for the RECORD 60% rise in US gasoline prices in recent months. - Media
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 1 2022 17:55 utc | 10
It's funny how this narrative is being spun in the U.S. Fox talks about two things: crime and inflation. With respect to the latter, they routinely debunk and ridicule Biden's claim. The liberal press doesn't seem to want to talk about inflation or Biden's blame-shifting.
Come winter, when things are likely to get hard for Americans, the last thing that Nuland, Blinken, etc. want is for people to connect America's participation in the Ukraine war with their personal hardship and misery. Letting Biden make the claim for the connection between the war and inflation in his fumbling way is to discredit the argument from the beginning, maybe with the hope that Americans will have already dismissed that explanation when the crunch really arrives.
Maybe it's by 11-dimensional chess design, or maybe it's just another symptom of the collapse of America's institution's credibility.
Posted by: Henry Moon Pie | Jun 1 2022 18:28 utc | 21
@ Scorpion
Could it be: minimise the population of people who will be part of the enlarged Russian Federation? I read Russia's population is much lower since WW2, and they are trying to encourage having more kids etc. More Russians means bigger army, country better to able to thrive and protect itself. All part of weaken Russia policy.
Posted by: John | Jun 1 2022 18:30 utc | 22
Russian MoD was, past tense, publicizing casualty numbers. Don't know if they stopped or if those who posted them in English all stopped. Anyone know what happened or have access? Please speak up if you know. Last I remember it was at roughly 50,000 killed and wounded plus 5,000 captured. That would have been early in the Mariupol saga.
Not counting Territorials but including militias, national guard, mercenaries the high number for population of Uke military before the conflict was 250,000. So a month ago they had lost over 20%. With no one counting deserters. With no guess how many are buried in trenches, how many are buried in rubble. Commanders could count how many are gone, how many remain, no sign that is being done. Appears like they don't want to know.
Kampfgruppen may continue to fight, they cannot fight well. Shortage and absence of specialized skills will prevent the machine from working. Specialized skills means things as simple as good truck mechanics who can figure out how to repair a tank or APC. Or how to make that commandeered civilian sedan survive as we retreat.
It is quite amazing the charade has lasted this long. Cheerleader at NYT and WSJ still put out figures of 2000 or 3000 for Uke KIA. Is that the reality that matters?
Any casual glance at videos from the front shows Ukrainian forces with lots of old men. Old men can't fight wars.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 1 2022 18:34 utc | 23
Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Jun 1 2022 17:41 utc | 3
LOL, the Bush Crime Syndicate laughs at mere thieves.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 1 2022 18:38 utc | 24
@Bob Sykes
"Bush did avoid Vietnam, and the very high aircraft loss rates there, but he didn't get a cushy, risk-free assignment."
He was in the Texas Air National Guard, which is the definition of a cushy risk free assignment. He also went AWOL from that assignment and got away with it, which is even more cushy and risk free.
Stop trying to pretend a cowardly chicken hawk, who ducked service in the Vietnam War he supported, didn’t have it easier than 99.99% of American males of draft age at that time.
Posted by: TimmyB | Jun 1 2022 18:39 utc | 25
Lot's of people got better deals, like student deferments and flight to Canada.
Posted by: bob sykes | Jun 1 2022 17:53 utc | 8
Shrub asked for that assignment and it was granted for two reasons. 1-He always had fantasies of becoming president and posing as a hero; just not without actually having to go fight anyone. 2-His father was still also very much in the deep state and politics. This was the best possible assignment for the Bush Crime Family to save face amid a massive protest movement.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 1 2022 18:42 utc | 26
The object, as stated ad nauseam, is to weaken Russia by keeping the war going.
Any deaths can be spun as the fault of 'Russian aggression'.
Bear in mind that most dying- ordinary working people- are probably not real members of the Galician/Canadian superior race anyway but Little Russians.
And that is just the way the Ukraine government (production team) looks at things. By the time NATO chimes in the opinions get really cynical: there must be Poles, for example, of the Pilsudski school, who regard all ukrainian deaths as positive.
There is all that land, just waiting to be sold off to Cargill, and no need for any labour to go with it. Clearing the land of Ojibwe and Cree made it available for settlement. Clearing Ukraine of Ukrainians will ensure that the privatisation of the black soil lands is not resisted.
The Russians are the Ukrainians in this war.
The "ukrainians in Kiev" are foreigners with interests of their own and their American masters.
There is a good, long, article: "War Within the War: The Fight Over Land and Genetically Engineered Agriculture" By Mitchel Cohen
at https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/05/31/war-within-the-war-the-fight-over-land-and-genetically-engineered-agriculture/
Posted by: bevin | Jun 1 2022 18:43 utc | 27
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 1 2022 18:28 utc | 20
"If Russia thinks this situation might occur I would expect them to try and move against Odessa before hand - although I don't believe they have enough forces in Kherson to do this. Perhaps they could accumulate forces in Crimea ahead of such a move and retain some element of surprise. Not sure if they have any means to clear the coastal mines and sufficiently degrade coastal defenses to consider coming in from the sea."
I suspect that IF there are negotiations before Odessa is occupied then one condition will be free and fair plebiscites internationally monitored in which case Odessa will doubtless vote overwhelmingly to be aligned with RF in some fashion.
At this point, though, I suspect no negotiation will proceed unless Ukraine unconditionally surrenders and disarms. If the people have overthrown Z and Nazis and ask to negotiate without US-NATO interference, now that might be a different thing.
From Washington Post, now officially known as Bezos' Blog:
Two weeks before he was to graduate from Yale, George Walker Bush stepped into the offices of the Texas Air National Guard at Ellington Field outside Houston and announced that he wanted to sign up for pilot training. It was May 27, 1968, at the height of the Vietnam War. Bush was 12 days away from losing his student deferment from the draft at a time when Americans were dying in combat at the rate of 350 a week. The unit Bush wanted to join offered him the chance to fulfill his military commitment at a base in Texas. It was seen as an escape route from Vietnam by many men his age, and usually had a long waiting list.Bush had scored only 25 percent on a "pilot aptitude" test, the lowest acceptable grade. But his father was then a congressman from Houston, and the commanders of the Texas Guard clearly had an appreciation of politics.
Bush was sworn in as an airman the same day he applied. His commander, Col. Walter B. "Buck" Staudt, was apparently so pleased to have a VIP's son in his unit that he later staged a special ceremony so he could have his picture taken administering the oath, instead of the captain who actually had sworn Bush in. Later, when Bush was commissioned a second lieutenant by another subordinate, Staudt again staged a special ceremony for the cameras, this time with Bush's father the congressman – a supporter of the Vietnam War – standing proudly in the background.
Bush's father went on to run for senator in 1970 against Lloyd Bentsen Jr. – a prominent Texas Democrat whose own son had been placed in the same Texas Guard unit by the same Col. Staudt around the same time as Bush. On Election Day, before the polls closed, Guard commanders nominated both George W. Bush and Lloyd Bentsen III for promotion to first lieutenant – even as the elder Bentsen was defeating the elder Bush.
Three decades later, as Bush begins a campaign for the presidency that has invited new scrutiny of his life, Staudt and other Guard commanders insist no favoritism was shown to him. But others active in Texas politics in the 1960s say the Texas National Guard was open to string-pulling by the well-connected, and there are charges that the then-speaker of the Texas legislature helped George W. gain admittance.
....[article continues into Clinton et al]
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 1 2022 18:46 utc | 29
From IntelSlava (appropriate given the context of the above article
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Canadian military correspondent Neil Hauer said that he corresponded with a friend of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, whose unit defended Krasny Liman.He told the Canadian that out of 60 people in his unit, only 4 people got out from Liman alive. The rest apparently were either killed or taken prisoner.
Posted by: Down South | Jun 1 2022 18:46 utc | 30
Good to see some discussion of this. I think nearly everyone examining casualty numbers thus far has been underestimating the intensity of the fighting.
* Eg refer to kia=2k / wia=8k officially reported by DNR (only) after 3 months.
* Hard to think the numbers Zelensky is willing to present to the press aren't "optimistic" from his point of view. Even b's estimate above could be conservative. Those 100ish daily long range strikes by RF and 500ish field arty/rocket strikes are often landing on objects with VSU personnel.
A related factor, alluded to by b above talking about the territorial defense units. It's the attitude of the the Azov-indoctrinated officers or general staff toward these units. Many among their commanders might be entirely happy to send them on suicide missions, i.e. if their loyalty to the fascist state is suspect. A particularly unhappy side of this fratricidal war.
In contrast, even a completely cynical and racist Ukraine leadership should logically make relatively more effort to conserve their trusted battle groups capable of at least some operational mobility. Though some of the recent failed counterattacks, and no-retreat orders, show logic is often absent. Still, there have been every 3-4 weeks some counterattacks that required RF to pull back, introduce more capable combat elements on the field, or they simply inflicted meaningful damage... so it's not a uniformally one sided situation, despite the appalling Ukrainian losses.
Hopefully some understanding of the level of carnage continues to seep through the thick fog of bullshit. The increasing protest videos of frontline VSU units are encouraging.
Posted by: ptb | Jun 1 2022 18:49 utc | 31
From IntelSlava
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 The US State Department says the fighting in Ukraine will continue for many more months. Which is not surprising, since the United States apparently expects to turn the tide in Ukraine before the midterm elections this fall.The Biden administration needs to make progress before the fall, otherwise it will face an almost guaranteed defeat due to the growing economic problems within the United States.
Therefore, the Zelensky gang will continue to be supplied with weapons and drowned in blood, regardless of the costs for Ukraine. For this, in fact, it was prepared and armed.
Posted by: Down South | Jun 1 2022 18:49 utc | 32
Posted by: bob sykes | Jun 1 2022 17:53 utc | 8
yeah that's horseshit. it was a cushy risk free assignment flying over Texas. what do you imagine the risk to be? plus, he didn't even show up for long periods of time.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 1 2022 18:50 utc | 33
Posted by: JulianJ | Jun 1 2022 18:16 utc | 15
"That's crazy: it will suicide the economy."
It seems to me that EU and US are also in the process of suiciding. Some people think this is due to stupidity; I suspect internationally coordinated subterfuge. But no matter what it certainly seems that each and every thing they do is suicidal, indeed I can't think of anything that hasn't been in that trajectory for quite some time now. Amazing. Weird. Scary. Ugly. Evil.
Posted by: John | Jun 1 2022 18:30 utc | 22
"@ Scorpion
Could it be: minimise the population of people who will be part of the enlarged Russian Federation? I read Russia's population is much lower since WW2, and they are trying to encourage having more kids etc. More Russians means bigger army, country better to able to thrive and protect itself. All part of weaken Russia policy."
IF that was the idea, then it seems it's not working since it's Ukrainians dying far more than Russians.
In any case, it looks like Ukraine is going the way of the dodo very soon. Poland is being openly invited to move into Galicia paving the way for that part of Ukraine to join NATO later OR obliging Russia to expand her SMO up to the Polish border in a year or more at great cost of lives and treasure. The East and South clearly are lost forever as everyone except those who follow western MSM know by now, leaving only the central area around Kiev to be decided - and if RF has her way, the people will vote on it at some point, perhaps after most of the Russian-hating Kievans have sacrificed themselves on the front in this ghastly exercise that b so well laid out in today's offering so that there might be a significant majority of pro-Russian votes in that great old RUS city.
@Scorpion 12:
I have occasionally wondered the same thing. One angle it’s the topsoil. As the great reset agenda sends supply chains into a downward plummet, we are hearing ‘food crisis’ being broadcast by the various mouthpieces. Upon closer examination it appears to be largely manufactured, but that is a topic for another thread. That said, Ukraine has the largest singular patch of high grade topsoil in Europe. As of late a narrative has emerged in light of the impending food crisis: We need to revisit GMOs. They have gone as far as to change the wording and definitions to make out more palatable. It would be convenient if the rolling plains eastern Ukraine were free of not only ethnic Russians but pretty much everyone else as well. Bayer-Monsanto-Cargill & Friends would have free reign to sow whatever crops they chose. Heck even Uncle Billy Boy could increase his holdings to compliment the millions of acres of farms land he has in the USA! At this point is pretty clear that the entire area will be under Russian control for the foreseeable future, so I rather doubt that would pan out.
Another angle is the Controlled Chaos Creative Destruction path, which is pretty well demonstrated in dozens of nations that have been occupied by the US. In this case however it is not only a matter of The PipeLinistan Wars, but also the interdiction of the New Silk Road. As per the usual Uncle Sam will simply sabotage anything he cannot have all to himself in terms of grift and control. Better to deny access through destruction than let anyone else have fair play. It’s pretty clear to me that Ukraine has been getting used like a low rent sex worker since before the Orange Revolution. Guns, drugs, bioweapons labs, sex slaves, organ smuggling, drugs a plenty must have taken quite a toll. Or course I have no idea, I’ve never been there but the picture I am assembling looks pretty grim.
So yeah, there seems to a bigger picture depopulation agenda at work. Who would replace Ukrainians when they are dead and gone? One has to wonder…. The Z-Man hinted as something like a New Khazaria. Perhaps employ the usual weapons of mass migration to repopulate ? Whatever the case its quite insidious, and sad. I will add that I fully expect that NovoRussia will heal itself and prosper in ways the old rotten Ukraine never could, and that will be the true victory.
Posted by: Chevrus | Jun 1 2022 18:55 utc | 35
2 million men of which 1.5m plus are payroll ghosts used to defraud the military budget. Like in Afghanistan.
Partly the reason why they can't register so many deaths because someone is still collecting their salaries.
Posted by: Kaiama | Jun 1 2022 18:56 utc | 36
"The Russian military forces are grinding down Ukrainian ground forces by extensive use of heavy artillery. The Ukrainian artillery has been destroyed or lacks ammunition.The Ukrainian forces have orders to stay in their position and to hold the line. Love isn't always on time, oh oh oh. Hold the line. Love isn't always on time, oh oh oh."
🤭
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 1 2022 18:56 utc | 37
Posted by: bevin | Jun 1 2022 18:43 utc | 27
"The object, as stated ad nauseam, is to weaken Russia by keeping the war going....
There is a good, long, article: "War Within the War: The Fight Over Land and Genetically Engineered Agriculture" By Mitchel Cohen at https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/05/31/war-within-the-war-the-fight-over-land-and-genetically-engineered-agriculture/ "
Maybe it really is that simple.
I wonder if they think it's working after 3 months.....
I wonder if they think they will have the stamina to endure another year or so of this....
Whatever this is, it's quite surreal...
I will now go read your article. Thxs.
Several unfortunate Ukie soldiers have stated the reason that they didn't surrender quicker is that their commanders said they would be shot and tortured by the Russians. Which suggets a lack of independent information sources. (ie. only Zelenskys radio and TV allowed.) The Commanders SEND them to the front but in many cases do not go with them.
Posted by: Stonebird | Jun 1 2022 19:02 utc | 39
@Scorpion | Jun 1 2022 18:43 utc | 28
"I suspect that IF there are negotiations before Odessa is occupied then one condition will be free and fair plebiscites internationally monitored in which case Odessa will doubtless vote overwhelmingly to be aligned with RF in some fashion."
I personally don't think this will be sufficient to meet Putin's objective of bringing justice to the perpetrators of the Odessa Massacre. I also don't believe that Russia would trust the current government in Odessa to oversee such a thing. Unless the current government is purged of nationalists and those loyal to Kiev then people would be afraid to vote honestly.
"At this point, though, I suspect no negotiation will proceed unless Ukraine unconditionally surrenders and disarms. If the people have overthrown Z and Nazis and ask to negotiate without US-NATO interference, now that might be a different thing."
Agreed. That said, a secure land connection to Transnistria and control of the Moldovan border - which assumes a friendly Odessa - may well be a condition for settlement. I still think Russia will try to take this area before negotiating.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 1 2022 19:02 utc | 40
So, do the Russians have defense against those new multiple thingies that the US has already shipped to Ukraine as I read on Telegram today (showing that they lied again when saying just a few days ago that they would not supply such arms)?
How long can Russia keep up doing this type of war? I hope they won't run out of ammunition by the time the more dangerous arms from abroad come in...
Posted by: Nico | Jun 1 2022 19:07 utc | 41
Inflation is higher in the EU than the U$A, but you never hear anything about the rest of the world.
"The inflation rate in the European Union reached 7.8 percent in March 2022, the highest rate of inflation recorded in the provided time period. Before 2021, the inflation rate in the EU peaked at 4.4 percent in July of 2008 and was lowest in January 2015, when prices were shrinking by 0.5 percent."
This is the kinda' BS that happens when your sycophants (the empires') screw with other nations to enhance corporate profits.
Posted by: vetinLA | Jun 1 2022 19:07 utc | 42
The casualty rate has to be enormous.
But the ammunition rate expenditure by the Russians must be phenomenal.
How the heck did they have those enormous quantities stockpiled?
And more to the point Western intelligence sources seem to have been completely oblivious to the point of gross incompetence.
Remember the military experts say Russian army will be without ammunition within 4 days back in March.
Posted by: Jpc | Jun 1 2022 19:08 utc | 43
@20 pessimist
Yes they have been inflicting a lot of casualties (ie at a rate in excess of what either US or USSR had in Afghanistan), by burning everything in the process, their air force, air defense, artillery/rocket units, armor, and unknown numbers of anonymous conscripts and trench diggers. They seem to have seriously internalized the wishes of the US state dept, in terms of their goal being to cause as much damage as they can, regardless of cost to themselves.
If the UA population actually believes they're fighting for something worth sacrificing literally their whole country for, which I doubt, it may hold up (ie continue indefinitely). That's also assuming infinite supplies from US/Europe. More likely it will come crashing down hard, when everyone realizes that team Zelensky and the NATO cheerleaders have been lying to their faces, the Azovites are an evil death cult, and the combined whole is completely insane.
Posted by: ptb | Jun 1 2022 19:09 utc | 44
@ pessimist 40
I agree that there will likely not many gestures of trust and good faith coming from the Russian side when it comes to mopping up operations. I recall all those years of commenters saying things like: “Why dont the Russians DO something, what are they being so hesitant?!” Of course these coming from folks that mostly have an oversimplified picture of reality, but still you get the picture. Well now here we are, gloves are off and what you get are the horns. It’s not as though Russia hasn’t tried every other route possible, so now a thoroughly justified ‘told you so’.
Posted by: Chevrus | Jun 1 2022 19:14 utc | 45
From bevin's article at
"Six years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to seize economic opportunities around the growing of food by opposing genetically engineered agriculture and Monsanto’s Roundup, the world’s most widely used herbicide; he initiated a program to eliminate pesticides and genetically engineered crops from Russia’s fields. The goal was to out-compete the U.S. and Canada as the world’s number one and two grain exporters by going organic, which mattered especially in Europe with its stricter laws regarding the import and planting of GMOs.
Monsanto had planned to open its first plant in Russia,[13] but in June 2016 Russia’s State Duma adopted a government bill banning the cultivation and breeding of genetically modified plants and animals, except as used for scientific research purposes.[14] A few weeks later, Putin signed federal law No. 358 prohibiting cultivation of genetically engineered crops. The law also made it illegal to breed genetically engineered animals on the territory of the Russian Federation.[15]
Putin had said he envisioned a future in which Russia would become “the world’s largest supplier of ecologically clean and high-quality organic food.”[16] He called on the country to become completely self-sufficient in food production: “We are not only able to feed ourselves taking into account our lands, water resources; Russia is able to become the largest world supplier of healthful, ecologically clean and high-quality food which the Western producers have long lost, especially given the fact that demand for such products in the world market is steadily growing.”[17]
....
In retaliation for Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis back in August 2015, Russia extended its list of countries that it would subject to a food import ban.[23] Far from the sanctions hurting Russia’s economy, as Monsanto and other pesticide-producing corporations expected (and hoped), over the decade Russia succeeded in its plan to become the world’s number one exporter of wheat and other grains. Putin claimed that Russia’s success in that regard was due in part to the preference of much of the world for non-GMO food.[24]
The United States, on the other hand, uses genetically engineered crops (and now trees), and the pesticides and fertilizer they require, as weapons, breaking up the indigenous communities in Mexico, for example, disrupting the economies of other countries and forcing them into dependency.[25] Even U.S. food aid to the victims of the tsunamis in the South Pacific and to earthquake victims in Pakistan and Haiti was genetically engineered and saturated with pesticides. One result of the U.S. “police action” in Somalia in 1992 was the imposition of thousands of acres of genetically modified cassava, uprooting local communities.[26]
In the last 30 years, the takeover of domestic agriculture by GMO crops has been part of U.S. war efforts. Following the U.S. “shock-and-awe” bombing of Iraq in 2003, L. Paul Bremer—the U.S.-appointed administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq—issued Order 81. Officially titled “Amendments to Patent, Industrial Design, Undisclosed Information, Integrated Circuits and Plant Variety Law,” the edict prohibited farmers from saving seeds from genetically engineered crops, and made it illegal for them to replant those seeds, thereby serving as enforcer of Monsanto’s patents."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A VERY important story. I was aware of Russia's move to organic a few years back which I thought was a fantastically positive move after which I began to trust him and Russia far more. The extracted pieces above show the huge contrast between the two powers on this important issue. I will be surprised if Russia and India don't align far closer soon for this is a huge topic of interest in India as well.
So here is another axis on which this war is being played: that of Big Ag domination of world staple crops. And here again Russia is on the side of the good guys and the Empire of Lies is sewing seeds of deceit, destruction and illness.
(It seems the bad guys already lost the most fertile lands in South East, though, don't it?)
Thank you Bevin for the article. A great site which I often forget to visit because they publish new stuff infrequently.
From IntelSlava
🇺🇦⚡Another 70,000 men can be drafted into the army from the Lviv region, - said the head of the Lviv regional military enlistment office Tishchenko
I wonder what the state of these recruits will be given that we are already seeing poorly trained, poorly armed middle age men on the frontline.
Posted by: Down South | Jun 1 2022 19:18 utc | 47
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 1 2022 18:08 utc | 12
I don't dismiss any of the other theories, but I default to the incompetence of US leadership combined with its belief in its own greatness and inability to be wrong. I think the bulk of the impetus to keep this horrible conflict going on is simply that Joe Biden et. al. cannot and will not admit they lost. More dead Ukrainians is a small price to pay for the maintenance of individual egos, at least from the perspective of those particular egos. This is a country that's still losing in Iraq and refuses to walk away, and Biden got the deserved blame for bungling Afghanistan where nobody wanted to give up because it meant admission of defeat. There's an internal logic that US power is now mostly a matter of perception and any admission of defeat undermines that perception.
Of course if the US hadn't been stupid at the start of this conflict ... if it had refrained from saying asinine things like "we'll support Ukraine until victory" or making claims about overthrowing Putin and weakening Russia it would be easier to walk back the situation. But it's the US where the most important thing, the only thing, is to win every news cycle and fight to the last news cycle no matter the cost in Americans or Ukrainians.
Posted by: Lex | Jun 1 2022 19:19 utc | 48
I wouldn't say that I had it any harder than George W. Bush during my active duty service in the Air Force 1969-72. I was sent to Romanian class the last 9 months of 1969. Then a few months of training as a voice intercept operator. Then a few months stationed at Air Force signals intelligence headquarters awaiting assignment, where I learned that I had passed the military's German language proficiency test during basic training, which enabled me to persuade the sergeant in charge of assignments to assign me as a German rather than a Romanian linguist. That meant Berlin for my last two years in the Air Force. I don't think I would say I hard it any harder than Dubya during my active service. And the same can be said of a much larger percentage of U.S. servicemen than .0001 during the Vietnam War.
I wasn't an officer. I was an enlisted man in the Air Force. But the work was interesting and a challenge. I learned Romanian and deepened my knowledge of German and Russian. I greatly improved my skill as a typist. I got to see Texas, a beautiful part of California, and Berlin.
If it had been up to me, I would never have joined the military. But I cannot say that I am sorry that the draft forced me to volunteer. In my last year in college in the U.S., I won a scholarship to Oxford. Because of the draft, I had to postpone going there for four years, but, when I got there, I appreciated it all the more and studied all the harder. Except for the poor devils who had to do the fighting, I suspect most those who like me were forced into the military have a similar attitude.
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 19:19 utc | 49
Let the school of hard knocks continue. Those few that survive their schooling come to realise their main enemy is the nationalist extremists and the US/UK controlled government.
Nothing like a bit of Russian artillery to cut through propaganda.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 1 2022 19:25 utc | 50
Slightly off topic but tonight Scotland is playing Ukraine in a world cup qualifying game. The moronic BBC radio commentators did the typical BBC propaganda BS. They said that most of the world, apart from Scotland, would be hoping that Ukraine wins.
Probably only true if you disregard the people of China, Russia, India, the entirety of Africa, most of the Middle East, almost all of South America.
How pathetic are these BBC shysters and the British media who churn out the intelligence services’ crap so uncritically, blatantly and frequently.
Posted by: Vragtes | Jun 1 2022 19:29 utc | 51
Boy, I wish this site had an edit function. "had it any harder". " most of those"
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 19:33 utc | 52
41. Yes, the HIMARS rockets are pretty similar to the various Russian MLRS. They are not a game changer, but replacing Ukrainian losses. One difference is that the HIMARS can “swap out” various rocket calibres, including the very long range ATACAMS rocket that can hit targets several hundred km away. It is this particular rocket that Biden says that he will not supply.
Posted by: Bruce | Jun 1 2022 19:33 utc | 53
"Poorly trained, poorly armed middle-aged men". Volkssturm, in other words.
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 19:37 utc | 54
"Perhaps they expect Biden to ride to the rescue if things get really bad"
Posted by: dh | Jun 1 2022 18:19 utc | 16
Maybe Biden will ride in on a B83, a la Slim Pickens...
Posted by: ianMoone | Jun 1 2022 19:39 utc | 55
Although I completely understand the Russian justifications and not the West’s, I nevertheless feel horribly for Ukrainians.
Anyway…
One point I haven’t read stated here about the “slow advance” by Russia: The faster Russia advances, the faster it accumulates POWs and refugees.
in contrast, a “slow” advance allows civilians more time to exit harm’s way before the front reaches them. It also gives UAF soldiers more time to think of a way to surrender or make some other exit. If their loyalty lies west, some can head west and become the west’s burden. Or vice versa.
If my country were the target, I much prefer a slow advance than a “Shock and Awe” or “Highway of Death”.
Of course, by not immediately surrendering to the initial feint around Kyiv, the West’s puppet squandered most of the time afforded him and doomed the people he was officially elected to care for.
…
Hey @karlof1, thanks for the shout-out regarding my “P.S.A.” in a prior thread. And thanks again for your continual consolidation and analysis of various sources.
Posted by: dfg | Jun 1 2022 19:41 utc | 56
"So, do the Russians have defense against those new multiple thingies that the US has already shipped to Ukraine as I read on Telegram today (showing that they lied again when saying just a few days ago that they would not supply such arms)?
How long can Russia keep up doing this type of war? I hope they won't run out of ammunition by the time the more dangerous arms from abroad come in..."
These multiple rocket launchers are little different than what Ukraine has lost in massive numbers already. People try to confuse the issue because these systems can also fire larger,longer range missiles. Ukraine is unlikely to get any of those missiles.
And no, Russia will not run out of ammunition for many years.
Posted by: nook | Jun 1 2022 19:42 utc | 57
Posted by: Lex | Jun 1 2022 19:19 utc | 48
"I don't dismiss any of the other theories, but I default to the incompetence of US leadership combined with its belief in its own greatness and inability to be wrong."
US leadership is a product of the three hundred million people it serves. If it is so stupid that says something about the whole population. As I've expressed here (too often) I suspect subterfuge is in the mix. This is hardly a controversial view given that subterfuge is ALWAYS in the mix in ANY country. The question is to what degree. There is always corruption too. And stupidity. And smarts. And sincerity. There are always a wide variety of ingredients whose powers vary from cycle to cycle.
It seems right now that the US is deliberately tanking not just its economy but it's entire social contract and body politic. It seems Europe and Ukraine is hell-bent on the same. It seems that the Eurasian countries, including those now more on the fringe considering further engagement (like Iran, India etc.) are NOT suiciding themselves.
So on some level it doesn't matter if it is stupidity or malice causing this suicide because one can almost argue it's a distinction without a difference since the result is the same: the ruining of the lives they purportedly serve.
Nasty business!
@43 jpc
"How the heck did they have those enormous quantities stockpiled?"
The Russian military was built to defend against NATO at full scale, not fight an endless series of sh#tty urban assaults with hundreds of thousands of live hostages. But they've done it before. Insofar as the ability to destroy stuff at any scale, ammunition and supplies are a non issue.
Given the nature of this conflict, one or two specialty items are lacking. Notably strike drones. Some types of medium range guided ammunition are used sparingly. There can never be enough de-mining equipment. Manufacturing will get ramped up on an emergency basis, that's life.
Posted by: ptb | Jun 1 2022 19:52 utc | 59
I recently rewatched Peckinpah's movie "Cross of Iron" about a German infantry unit fighting in the Taman Peninsula in late 1943. Is that unit an example of a Kampfgruppe?
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 19:55 utc | 60
Speaking of "Cross of Iron", I suppose a compromise peace was still conceivable at that point (late 1943). It might have been politically inconceivable for the British and American publics to accept a compromise peace because they had been so propagandized. But I think Stalin was enough of a realist to accept a compromise peace if he was offered enough.
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 20:01 utc | 61
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 19:19 utc | 49
well you had to actually show up, and there was at least some theoretical possibility you go into combat.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 1 2022 20:02 utc | 62
Another excellent Martyanov rant against the uneducated and stupid Western elites...
It is quite amazing the charade has lasted this long
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 1 2022 18:34 utc | 23
Compared to which war? Let's to a simple, longitudinal survey.
Don't stop at the "special military operation" to liberate US American medical students.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 1 2022 20:11 utc | 64
Maybe it's [a] by 11-dimensional chess design, or maybe [b] it's just another symptom of the collapse of America's institution's credibility.
@ Henry Moon Pie | Jun 1 2022 18:28 utc | 21
I pick b.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 1 2022 20:12 utc | 65
Ukie soldiers have stated the reason that they didn't surrender quicker is that their commanders said they would be shot ...
Posted by: Stonebird | Jun 1 2022 19:02 utc | 39
... by order if their own unit's command, indemnified by the Rada abrogation of civil code to UA martial law, subsequently embelished with executive orders, prescribing extra-judicial acts of treason.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 1 2022 20:23 utc | 66
53 and 57
I see. I have heard the US say they would not supply that long-range ammo, but really, what is the word of a US president worth? Nothing. I mean, Biden said the US would not supply it, but why would other Nato countries such as radical Poland not do so?
I think Russia should get prepared for a serious escalation.
Maybe it would make sense to already declare individual countries like the US, Britain and Germany war parties. Or even Nato as a whole.
Posted by: Nico | Jun 1 2022 20:25 utc | 67
Lex | Jun 1 2022 19:19 utc | 48
"Joe Biden et. al. cannot and will not admit they lost" because the only other alternative is all of Hillary World goes to prison and thousands of precious "middle-class" managerial careers melt into air.
Nico | Jun 1 2022 20:25 utc | 67
There's no other reason to have that long range hanging on the wall at the end of the first act unless there is intent to use it in the last. I propose we rename HIMARS "Chekhov".
Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Jun 1 2022 20:29 utc | 68
Via Rus MoD telegram. Severodonetsk
On May 31, 2022, around 7:00 pm (Moscow time), retreating units of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU detonated a tanker containing a toxic chemical substance (nitric acid) at Severodonetsk Azot enterprise in order to stop advancing units of the Russian Armed Forces and formations of the Donetsk People's Republic by creating a chemical contamination zone.
▫️After the explosion, an orange-coloured toxic cloud rose (to an altitude of about one kilometre) and moved towards Kremennaya and Rubezhnoe.
▫️The Ukrainian neo-Nazis were not deterred by the fact that innocent civilians had suffered as a result of this terrorist act involving a toxic chemical substance.
Posted by: paxmark1 | Jun 1 2022 20:35 utc | 69
The Russians are at this moment launching attacks on the railroad tunnel through which fuel and arms enter Ukraine from the West.
Posted by: Nico | Jun 1 2022 20:39 utc | 70
I had to postpone going there [OXFORD] for four years
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 19:19 utc | 49
By then the CONFLICT (undeclared Allied war against Vietnamese people) had definitively concluded.
UN | Agreement on ending the war and restoring peace in Viet-Nam.
Signed at Paris on 27 January 1973
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 1 2022 20:42 utc | 71
The Russians are at this moment launching attacks on the railroad tunnel through which fuel and arms enter Ukraine from the West.Posted by: Nico | Jun 1 2022 20:39 utc | 70
My first reaction was in b's mother tongue: Na, das hat gedauert (well, that sure took a while).
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 20:42 utc | 72
Many in the USofA are not buying the cause of the gas price increase BS that the president is selling. It is increasingly his war not putin's in the eyes of more and more. He brags each time he sends more weapons. Folks are not all stupid all the time. 2 and 2 is coming to 4.
sorry world for the stupidness from my country. I do apologize.
Posted by: horatio | Jun 1 2022 20:43 utc | 73
USAF, as per usual with our wars, suffered the lowest casualty rate during Vietnam. It was a less risky branch to join unless one was actually flying bombing and interceptor missions over the field of battle. Today it's even less so with the advent of drones. Apologies if this offends anyone, but the Air Force always was the choice of either 1) pussies who - at its most dangerous - get to fire on people from high in the air (or behind a console in Nevada - although that's also CIA now) or 2) people interested in flying military combat missions.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 1 2022 20:44 utc | 74
@ nook | Jun 1 2022 19:42 utc | 57 Re:
"These multiple rocket launchers are little different than what Ukraine has lost in massive numbers already. People try to confuse the issue because these systems can also fire larger, longer range missiles. Ukraine is unlikely to get any of those missiles."
Step 1, Supply the Ukies with the HIMARS but without the long range rockets to reduce the opposition to their deployment.
I think we all know what step 2 is don't we?
Incidentally, the US is not the only country using that weapon system so if the Ukies do get their hands on the long range stuff the US may have plausible deniability. Current operators include Singapore, Jordan, UAE and (more ominously) Rumania. Information on the ammunition types supplied to various operators isn't easy to find but since the versatility is the selling point I expect that all types are likely to be included.
Since vindictive attacks on civilian targets are a Ukie speciality, it is not hard to envisage indiscriminate bombardment of Russian cities as an attempt to escalate the conflict.
Posted by: MarkU | Jun 1 2022 20:51 utc | 75
56
I agree. I also feel sorry for all those young people who are forced to throw their lives away for that horrible regime in Kiev. I wish Russia would reach out to Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and tell them that they are on the wrong side and welcome to switch sides; that they have been brainwashed into thinking Russians are bad guys, when in reality the Americans are; they they are useful idiots to the West and not defending their country, but foreign governments and their geopolitical interests.
Posted by: Nico | Jun 1 2022 20:51 utc | 76
Here is a thought for the contrarians among us.
What if this campaign turns out to be modeled by the US on the Korean War.
Many of the lineaments are similar: North Korea comes to the aid of a beleagured population, being decimated by fascist military units working on behalf of imperialism, units founded to collaborate with the Japanese occupier who regard the victorious Korean resistance forces (commanded by Kim Il Sung) as communists threatening property and traditional hierarchy. From 1945 until the outbreak of war in 1950 the persecution of the many equivalents of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics was remorseless and drove the victorious communists, sponsors of the resistance communities throughout Korea, mad with anger.
There is some confusion as to how the war actually started in 1950, But there is no doubt that Synghman Rhee and the southern collaborators did all they could to provoke Kim in the hope of re-uniting Korea as an anti-communist bastion, protected by the USA.
The North struck and to its surprise, the southern army, trained by the US and actually larger and better equipped than Kim's, collapsed. Kim chased them all the way down to the southern extremity of the peninsula where, with US assistance they set up defensive positions.
In the meantime the US was busy, mobilising "international opinion" organising support from the UN- which with its allies it dominated-and concentrating the bulk of its military units in Korea and Japan in preparation of striking back.... check it out. It is an old story.
And old stories are the sort that people like Biden's mob like best. You can imagine their dream: arm Ukraine to the teeth, never mind the casualties, there is no reason why the Ukrainian forces should actually include any Ukrainians at all- the world is full of young men ready to fight for a hundred bucks or less or more a day. Entire regiments of armies can be seconded to Ukraine and given citizenship. The artillery and the rocket batteries will come with ready trained operatives. All that is needed is to turn the Donbas into a desert...
The US counter offensive in Korea was amphibious. So it might make sense to remove that option by taking over the entire Black Sea coast.
Now, I'm not saying that the US idiocracy does see this as a chance to re-run the Korean War, which, anyway, ended in a defeat on the battlefield although it provided a blood stained ideological foundation for the Cold War that followed. But the parallels are there.
Anyone who can find Bruce Cumings' book The Korean War might find it interesting to judge for himself.
One thing that struck me was that Stalin was determined, from the first, not to get involved. He is reputed to have said he would have welcomed having the US as a neighbour in the Far East. He said that Russia was too weak to go to war and needed peace. All of which underlines the historical scandal that NATO was never a defensive pact and has always been aimed at provoking and weakening the state centred in the Kremlin of Moscow.
So 'baby-boomers' of the west pretty well the entire world in which we have lived is an infamous lie, promoted by sadists in the interests of capitalism. But we knew that anyway.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 1 2022 20:53 utc | 77
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 1 2022 18:08 utc | 12:
What are the Ukrainians and NATO trying to achieve by continuing to lose so many men in this way without any military gains to show for it?
Ukrainians would have NOTHING to gain. Ukrainian puppet leaders would get some payoffs to live out their remaining miserable lives somewhere west. NATO, on the other hand, would gain a narrative that Russians are indeed! evil/aggressive/bloodthirsty, etc. etc. to convince their citizenries to keep the current leadership in place (and perhaps even thrive). Note also that, the Ukrainian leadership and NATO leadership have nothing to lose! Ukraine people are just cannon fodders in their eyes; money needed to perpetuate this fiasco comes from pockets of European/Empire citizenry who are considered dupes inthe leadership's eyes.
This has been the way the West has operated since WWII, hasn't it?
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 1 2022 20:53 utc | 78
Thought Russians would do more to stop these arms shipments. They may even think about shutting down all Airports .
Posted by: sigmund | Jun 1 2022 20:58 utc | 79
russi stanno in questo momento lanciando attacchi al tunnel ferroviario attraverso il quale carburante e armi entrano in Ucraina dall'ovest.
Inserito da: Nico | 1 giugno 2022 20:39 utc
Alla buon'ora, i russi sono veramente incomprensibili, se fosse stato fatto un mese fa oggi l'ucraina sarebbe tutta in bicicletta
Posted by: Alessandro Cagliostr | Jun 1 2022 20:59 utc | 80
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 1 2022 20:53 utc | 79
"This has been the way the West has operated since WWII, hasn't it?"
Well, what you say makes sense and yet I cannot process it. I think in the past couple of weeks have been entering a state of suspended cognitive dissonance!!
Like with b's excellent articles of late. Such clear presentations of well researched detail (something rarely found in English these days so ironic that a German is writing them!). And yet the subjective effect is yet more bewilderment-surrealism.
I find it a tad incredible that most of the Ukrainian Forces grunts haven't surrendered en masse already. The Russians should make videos of POW's enjoying showers, a nice meal, a clean bed. No words necessary.
This is reminding me of WWI when gradually, gradually after months of hardship and hundreds of thousands dead a few of the more perceptive soldiers in the trenches began to wonder: what's it all for? Then came the famous poem...
Dulce et Decorum Est
BY WILFRED OWEN
Bent double, like old beggars under sacks,
Knock-kneed, coughing like hags, we cursed through sludge,
Till on the haunting flares we turned our backs,
And towards our distant rest began to trudge.
Men marched asleep. Many had lost their boots,
But limped on, blood-shod. All went lame; all blind;
Drunk with fatigue; deaf even to the hoots
Of gas-shells dropping softly behind.
Gas! GAS! Quick, boys!—An ecstasy of fumbling
Fitting the clumsy helmets just in time,
But someone still was yelling out and stumbling
And flound’ring like a man in fire or lime.—
Dim through the misty panes and thick green light,
As under a green sea, I saw him drowning.
In all my dreams before my helpless sight,
He plunges at me, guttering, choking, drowning.
If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,—
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.
Well, the low casualty rate was one reason I chose the Air Force, but I was not seeking no danger at all. As soon as I realized I would not be able to escape the draft, I started to study Mandarin Chinese. By the time I entered the Air Force, I had completed 2 1/2 years of college-level Chinese courses. I asked the Air Force to assign me as a Chinese linguist, but the Air Force thought otherwise.
If they had assigned or trained me as a Chinese linguist, that would probably have meant Vietnam. Not a very dangerous posting, but one with some danger. And that was the posting that I sought.
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 1 2022 21:08 utc | 82
@ bevin | Jun 1 2022 20:53 utc | 78
That's really good stuff, bevin. I hadn't thought about Korea, and the parallels are striking.
That much said, I find it difficult to believe Stalin would've been so foolish as to want the USA anywhere near his country.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 21:14 utc | 83
That much said, I find it difficult to believe Stalin would've been so foolish as to want the USA anywhere near his country.Okay, and any of you snot-noses out there point it out (I'm typing as fast as I can), YES, I'm aware of the existence of the Diomede Islands. What I mean is "massive US military presence." Like tens of thousands of troops in Korea.Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 21:14 utc | 84
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 21:18 utc | 84
Nico #67
Brian Berletic at The New Atlas explains with some interesting video clips why the “Game-Changer” HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system the US is sending to UIkraine will fail just as the 777 artillery guns failed. Basically, they require trained operators and take time to deploy and operate. Without air superiority they will be quickly located and destroyed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImctOxgaJ_0
Posted by: Krypton | Jun 1 2022 21:24 utc | 85
Posted by: vetinLA | Jun 1 2022 19:07 utc | 42
MSM headline new routinely misinforms US households about "real" economic output (USD val, Q goods, GDP, (un)employment rates, etc) because it's easy to publish DOL, BLS statistical headline reports with a bit of copy editing to Grade Level and leave questionable data collection and computational methodology to business press columnists, "confidence men", flogging securities sales sheets supplied by CFOs. Some call that industry public/private "investor relations". The fact is, market speculation and .gov modeling decoupled from the 'real' industry many, many decades ago. For instance, DOL double-counts respondents' jobs; DOL doesn't "correct" U-3 rate for multiple job holders. GDP formula includes off-shore, or transnational, revenue reported and tax remitted to Treasury by any company incorporated in a US state whether or not the business generates comensurate domestic consumption.
Pro-tip: check shadow stat at least once a month.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 1 2022 21:26 utc | 86
Posted by: sigmund | Jun 1 2022 20:58 utc | 80
I also was wondering about the flying of western politicians in and out of Kiev or to Lvov, and my explanation was the Russians stick to definitions and to international law. Their official name for the war in (not against!) Ukraine was and is Special Military Operation (SMO). Russia did not declare war against Ukraine and total air blockade would be an act of war, not a kind of "police cum military" operation against troops in Donbas.
Military aircraft especially from NATO avoid flying over Ukraine though, so far.
Posted by: fanto | Jun 1 2022 21:29 utc | 87
thank you, Bevin and Scorpion, for the reference to the Russian decision to ban GMO plants and animals and pesticides in 2016. I knew that I had read that President Putin wanted Russia to become “the world’s largest supplier of ecologically clean and high-quality organic food.” but I could not find the source.
It will be a real benefit to humanity if the Russian Federation's liberation of Ukraine ensures that the black earth is removed from the control or threat of control by globalist technocrats. I had read that the Ukrainian Rada was blocking Zelensky's moves to change the constitution so that the land could be sold to non-Ukrainian buyers. Since the Special Military Operation started, I have not come across any up-to-date information.
Posted by: cirsium | Jun 1 2022 21:34 utc | 88
@ Krypton | Jun 1 2022 21:24 utc | 86
Basically, they require trained operators and take time to deploy and operate. Without air superiority they will be quickly located and destroyed.I'm sure we're supplying the trained operators, and I wouldn't doubt for a minute that we're supplying, directly or otherwise, rockets that can strike deep within Russia. (Biden's words are usually mendacious unless they're malevolent.) So the only question is whether Russia can and will destroy all HIMARS installations before they can be deployed. I'm guardedly optimistic.
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 21:38 utc | 89
Posted by: malenkov | Jun 1 2022 21:14 utc | 84
"That much said, I find it difficult to believe Stalin would've been so foolish as to want the USA anywhere near his country."
After Senator McCarthy trashed the field with the shrapnel of his torpedoed reputation it's been all but buried that during Stalin's time the USG and elsewhere (like media) was shot through with communist agents and sympathizers. This is one of the main reasons why the USG worked with so many Nazis, since the latter had far greater intelligence on Russian operatives including those in the West than the Americans who had only recently starting putting together organized spook agencies.
Heinrich 'Gestapo' Mueller for example traded his freedom for extensive lists of names of such operatives which I seem to recall the receiving Intelligence officers found impossible to believe but once enough of them checked out they gave Mueller a new identity and US citizenship and I read years ago (without confirmation) that he rose fairly high in DC society.
But that's the bad old days when the communists believed they could take over the entire Western world. Nobody in Russia or China thinks like that any more, right? :)
@Scorpion, #82:
Dulce et decorum est indeed! After 70+ years of Hollywood/MSM/Pop-Music/Cozy-Middle-Class-Lifestyle, most people in Europe are sold on the virtues of western life. Not gonna be easy to change their longings for such. I bet you, even today after 100+ days of whuppin at Russian hands, the mass majority of Ukrainian soldiers still believe the west would prevail over Ruskies, and joining EU/NATO is the right bet to make towards better lives and living conditions for their parents/children, etc. The average person ain't smart enough to discern the intricates, nor are they informed enough with truth info to even do the discerning. Such is life! Such is what wicked politicians in the west count on to fool their herds.
But, I for one believe one day the masses in the west would have the wool pulled away over their eyes, see their leadership for what they are, and some REAL changes would come. The dumping of ScoMo in Auzzieland is a harbinger.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 1 2022 21:46 utc | 91
Over on South Front, Drago Bosnic thinks a coup is imminent. He could be right, Russian sources think so too.
Posted by: pasha | Jun 1 2022 21:50 utc | 92
Zelensky should be reading up on President Diem of South Vietnam, and thus learn a bit about what Democrat administrations do to their proxy puppets who don't perform up to expectations.
Posted by: Westy | Jun 1 2022 21:56 utc | 93
86
I know that guy, I am following his YT channel.
But the 777 IS being used to shell Donbas cities. The Russians did not pay enough attention and failed to destroy them early enough.
90
Indeed, I also think different Nato countries are distributing projects so that Russia can't pin it down on any one country. Nato is a pussy club. Like little boys throwing stones at a dog from behind their moms. And when the dog bites, they point at each other.
To change that Russia should simply lump them all together and treat them accordingly.
Posted by: Nico | Jun 1 2022 21:57 utc | 94
@ Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 1 2022 21:08 utc | 82
Yes indeed. Genius. And "Anthem for Doomed Youth":
What passing-bells for these who die as cattle?
Only the monstrous anger of the guns.
Only the stuttering rifles' rapid rattle
Can patter out their hasty orisons.
No mockeries for them; no prayers nor bells,
Nor any voice of mourning save the choirs,--
The shrill, demented choirs of wailing shells;
And bugles calling for them from sad shires.
What candles may be held to speed them all?
Not in the hands of boys, but in their eyes
Shall shine the holy glimmers of goodbyes.
The pallor of girls' brows shall be their pall;
Their flowers the tenderness of patient minds,
And each slow dusk a drawing-down of blinds.
Posted by: pasha | Jun 1 2022 21:58 utc | 95
Oriental Voice | Jun 1 2022 21:46 utc | 92 "I bet you, even today after 100+ days of whuppin at Russian hands, the mass majority of Ukrainian soldiers still believe the west would prevail over Ruskies,"
That is starting to change. I think that is the main reason we are seeing a slow war, no encirclements. Russia slowing down but not stopping western weapons supplies. The average Ukrainian thought they could prevail over Russia because they had US and European backing.
The nazi's thought that with that backing they were untouchable to the point of posting their torture and murder videos to social media.
Russia is creating the circumstance for regime change in Kiev upon which we will most likely see a negotiated end to this war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 1 2022 22:10 utc | 96
What? No post on Johnny Depp and Amber Neverheardofher?
I’m Impressed, but not surprised.
Thanks for keeping shit real, b!
I’m always referring people here,
because the site is 99% of the time on point.
Thanks again, b. And also thank you to the commentariat,
Posted by: Cadence Calls | Jun 1 2022 22:16 utc | 97
Posted by: Jpc | Jun 1 2022 19:08 utc | 43
The casualty rate has to be enormous.
But the ammunition rate expenditure by the Russians must be phenomenal.
How the heck did they have those enormous quantities stockpiled?
Judging from the frontline videos it does not seem that the Russians and LDNR militia are wasting ammunition. Rather they seem to perform thorough surveillance, then do pinpoint strikes. This is neither WWI with material battles, nor is it WWII where the Red Army in the Wisla-Oder operation amassed 100 artillery guns per frontline kilometer, and wiped several divisions in hours long barrages.
A very cautious estimate of the frontline/contact line extension from southwest Cherson oblast opposite Ostakov (where two UA small missile ships got destroyed recently) to the Energodar/Zaporoshye area, over to Vasilyevka/Ugledar then Avdeyevja/Svetlodar and up to Popasnaya-Severodonetsk-Rubeshnoye, further to Liman-Isyum, and to the Charkow fronts is over 1100 km without the multiple arcs and bulges which may triple the lengths at minimum.
On this minimum 3000km line there are at most 150k Allied Russian and LDNR militia troops, and maybe double or 3 times of it UA forces, less than 200 troops of all sides per front kilometer, 60-70 of the Allied forces. I estimate that about 70-80% of the Allied forces are combat units (as many of the rear services are in Russia) versus 40-50% on the UA side. Of course not evenly distributed.
As the allied troops avoid large scale infrastructure damages as well as risks of being outflanked in deep strikes, their movement is limited to the air and artillery cover. From the losses in the first phase they learnt to sweep thoroughly before going on.
That does not mean that they are shooting relentlessly so the ordnance consumption is not extreme. Mind also that the majority of Russian forces is held back to counter a NATO strike if necessary. Putin said that about 6% of the Russian forces are active in Ukraine. Maybe it is double of that due to rotations but not much more.
So far Russia did neither mobilize in wider scale, not for volunteers much less for the industry. That does not mean that they could not.
Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 1 2022 22:25 utc | 98
Malenkov
1/ Stalin went soft in his old age. In fact all Bolsheviks are inclined to the feelings that came to colour his foreign policy: Communists believe in the dignity and honesty of man. They are optimists in the final analysis. To believe in equality and democracy-which are of the essence of communism- they have to be.
And Stalin, who was determined not to go to war, so determined that he backed Chiang almost as long as the US did, really believed that peace was not only necessary for the Soviet Union but was the one thing that imperialism feared above all.
He thought that imperialism, faced on the one hand with the burgeoning revolt of the imperial possessions and on the other with the growing Trade Union movement and social democratic reform demands of the metropole, was going to be on the defensive.
Bear in mind-I'm sure that you know this as well as I- that in those days (I remember this) the Red Army were treated like The Beatles in the UK, the Russian circuses drew massive crowds wherever they went. The Soviet Union was at the height of its popularity in the west, elsewhere in the world it was seen as the ultimate guarantor of the poor, the coloured, the oppressed.
Stalin could not conceive of a situation in which the masses in Europe or America could be brought to believe that he was evil-as evil as Hitler- or that the Soviet Union which had attacked nobody and had no intention of doing so could be portrayed as a danger.
So in his view, and this was towards the end of his life, commenting on the proposed armistice and trivialising the importance of holding to the 38th parallel, it mattered little whether the US had a border with Russia in Korea. He had no doubt that the Empire was crumbling and that any force against it was unnecessary. It was doomed.
And he was, generally, absolutely right: in 1952 the US had only just begun (the signs were there in the genocidal bombing of Korea) its carnival of death and mad violence, its archipelagos of torture chambers its butchers lists of military dictatorships, its massive revival of the fascism that the world had thanked the Red Army for defeating and that old soldiers in Britain and other countries preened themselves for having been allied with. It would never have occurred to anyone except a sadistic misanthrope that Stalin was not right, that the Universe was unfolding like one of Karl Marx's dreams. That sharing a border with the US would have opened up more opportunities to spread the ideas that Stalin actually believed in-ideas of equality and democracy and a world in which every cook would rule.
And I'm not sure that, after eighty years of practical contradiction, he was not still right. Because one thing is certain: capitalism has to be replaced or the human race will not survive.
2/"...Bush did avoid Vietnam, and the very high aircraft loss rates there, but he didn't get a cushy, risk-free assignment. Lot's of people got better deals, like student deferments and flight to Canada..." bob sykes@8
Bush did not come to Canada because he didn't have the guts or the decency to do so.
There was nothing 'cushy' about what those who refused to serve-or Muhammed Ali- did. They refused either to kill Vietnamese or assist others in doing so. They were heroes. It is them that mankind should honour and thank for showing that ordinary young men can stand up against the most powerful states on earth, against conformity and peer pressure and, at considerable material and mental sacrifice, do the right thing.
Posted by: bevin | Jun 1 2022 22:40 utc | 99
Posted by: bob sykes | Jun 1 2022 17:53 utc | 8
A most intriguing comment about a true slacker called George Bush Jr.
Alas, his ANG released pay records show no such record of being attached to any ANG transport squadron. Please explain this discrepancy???????????
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Jun 1 2022 22:44 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Back during Vietnam people like George W. Bush joined the National Guard to avoid being drafted and sent to Vietnam.
When he became president he sent National Guard troops to Iraq.
There is no honor among thieves.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jun 1 2022 17:35 utc | 1