|
Ukraine Beyond Day 100 – Breaking Resistance, Deep Operation, A New Country
Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Army presents the current state (vid) of the war.
Two of the facts he mentions were new to me.
bigger
The Ukrainian army has moved seven brigades of its Territorial Defense Forces from the west into the area east of the Dnieper. If these were fully maned each will have had some 3,000 soldiers. That are a lot of troops but they are pure infantry without heavy weapons and with extremely little training. Col. Reisner also showed a collection of 15 videos in which members of such and other units describe hopeless situations, declare a retreat or call out their commanders for neglect.
Morale is so bad because those troops do not fare well.
Yves Smith, with a wonderful Daily Mail style headline:
The War Situation Has Developed Not Necessarily to Ukraine’s or the West’s Advantage But They Plan to Negotiate When They’ve Turned Things Around a Bit – Yves Smith / Naked Capitalism
A very long established contact forwarded this message from a former senior US military official:
Just in from an Army Colonel in the building:
“Spoke to someone today who said that the Ukie basic training is 10 days and then off to the front. 65% casualty rates. At least double or more the losses of the Russians but you don’t hear anything about it.”
I very much doubt that Russian units, the way they are currently fighting, have casualty rates of more than 10%. Russia is regularly rotating units in and out to give them some rest and to let them replenish. It is a classic Russian artillery war now and infantry only comes in when the Ukrainians are already defeated.
As this permanent grinding continues the Ukrainians will soon reach a breaking point.
Why Has Germany Been So Slow to Deliver Weapons? – Spiegel
The Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, fears that Ukrainian resistance could even be broken in the next four to five weeks. In a number of classified briefings in recent days, BND analysts have noted that while the Russians are moving much more slowly than they did at the beginning of the war, they are able to conquer small bits of territory each day. The BND thinks it possible that Putin’s troops could bring all of the Donbas under their control by August.
In a German language interview Col. Reisner explains what that 'breaking' of Ukrainian resistance would mean (my translation):
"Four mobile rocket systems, that's pure symbolic." – Jun 4 2022 – N-tv
Q: You spoke of a chain reaction that could develop on the Ukrainian side.
A: The danger is that general panic will break out in the pocket and the soldiers will try to retreat to a favorable line that is easier to hold. If this is done in an orderly manner, that would be a line east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. But if panic breaks out, that last line could be much deeper, at the Dnieper.
That moment would allow for a Russian 'deep operation' in which a second echelon of fresh Russian troops would break deep into the rear of the Ukrainian army on the west side of the Dnieper, wreak Ukrainian supply lines and chase down remaining resistance.
Some grown-ups recognize what is up.
Calls increase for ending conflict as Russia-Ukraine crisis hits 100th day – China Daily
Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University who served as an adviser to three United Nations secretaries-general, said that "it is in Ukraine's interest to return to the negotiating table, which it has refused to do since late March".
"I believe that the US should recognize that it acted irresponsibly in pushing for NATO enlargement into Ukraine and Georgia," he told China Daily.
The unpalatable truth in Ukraine – Andrew Latham / The Hill
[T]hat leaves only one other conceivable outcome: a fragmented and partly dismembered Ukraine, neither fully part of the West nor entirely within the Russian sphere of influence. A Ukraine fragmented in that the whole of the Donbas and perhaps other territories will be left beyond Kyiv’s control; partly dismembered in that Crimea will remain part of Russia (at least in Russian eyes); and not fully part of the West in that it will not be free to join NATO or even to have a meaningful partnership with the EU. Simply put, this outcome is not only not impossible, it’s not even improbable.
How the war will end … – June 3 2022 – Gilbert Doctorow
To be specific, from the very beginning the number one issue for Moscow as it entered upon its military adventure in Ukraine was geopolitical: to ensure that Ukraine will never again be used as a platform to threaten Russian state security, that Ukraine will never become a NATO member. We may safely assume that internationally guaranteed and supervised neutrality of Ukraine will be part of any peace settlement. It would be nicely supported by a new reality on the ground: namely by carving out several Russia-friendly and Russia-dependent mini-states on the former territory of East and South Ukraine. At the same time this solution removes from the international political agenda many of the accusations that have been made against Russia which support the vicious sanctions now being applied to the RF at great cost to Europe and to the world at large:there will be no territorial acquisitions.
If Kiev is compelled to acknowledge the independence of these two, three or more former oblasts as demanded by their populations, that is a situation fully compatible with the United Nations Charter. In a word, a decision by the Kremlin not to annex parts of Ukraine beyond the Crimea, which has long been quietly accepted by many in Europe, would prepare the way for a gradual return of civilized relations within Europe and even, eventually, with the United States
Welcome on board Gilbert:
Disarming Ukraine – Feb 24 2022 – Moon of Alabama
bigger
Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.
For economic reasons I later added a bit to that:
Novorossiya roughly includes the red and yellow areas in the above map. It also includes the valuable Soviet developed iron ore mines and factories of Kryvyi Rih west of the Dnieper river.
Iron ore from Kryvyi Rih, coal from Donbas, oil and gas from the eastern coast and the port of Mariupol together constitute the heavy industry that was the economic heart of Ukraine. Together they would constitute a viable and even well off country with 80+% of the GDP Ukraine previously had.
Russia can now afford go slow with this project. Time is on its side. Oil and gas prices are up. For Russia the war is monetarily neutral to profitable. The 'west' is already disunited. As the result of its sanctions on Russia its economies will slip into stagflation with social unrest just around the corner
Over time the urge for lifting the self-defeating sanctions will only increase the west's acceptance of Russia's solution to its NATO problem.
The territorial end-game will be what it becomes, organized by the locals as Lavrov and Putin have stated. The denazification and demilitarization will take Russian forces to every inch of Ukraine–there’s absolutely no wavering on those points from any Russian source I’ve read. And yet again, the next issue after Ukraine is NATO and the requirement for it to move West back to where it came from in 1997.
Today, Lavrov was interviewed by the Bosnian Serb radio and radio company Radio and Television Republika Srpska, with the transcript for now only in Russian. This interview differs from others in one important manner which is apparent from the outset:
“Question (translated from Serbian): This sad occasion provided an opportunity for our viewers, including those from Europe, to hear another point of view – the Russian side. Let’s start with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Since February 24, this has become the main world news. Little is known about what preceded it. Why did Russia decide on a special military operation in Ukraine at this very moment?
“Sergey Lavrov: At the beginning of your question, you said that it is important that Europe and the West know a different point of view. Serbia (where my visit will soon take place) is doing everything to ensure freedom of speech, fulfillment of its obligations within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to provide all OSCE citizens without exception with access to information. The West is not fulfilling these obligations. What I will tell you about is unlikely to be perceived by the media in Western European countries, in NATO member countries, the European Union, which have introduced and continue to impose prohibitive sanctions against the broadcasting of Russian media. TV channels and news agencies are blacklisted.
“You said before February 24 of this year, few people understood what was happening. This issue is from the same series we just talked about. All these long years, the West “hushed up” the severity of the situation, which was only escalating.” [My Emphasis]
So, it appears NATO nations violated another OSCE Treaty(ies) on media and free speech, although Lavrov doesn’t specify which ones, although I know he’s spoke of them before. Lavrov then relates the events we all know so well that began in 2014 with a sidebar about Kosovo in 2013 as an EU behavioral example. Lavrov closes his history with these comments:
“It is a pity that in Europe it seems that until February 24 of this year, no one understood what was happening. This says only one thing – Western politicians did not want to touch upon these topics in the media space, so that their population, voters understood what was really happening.
“Recently, President of Russia Vladimir Putin described the United States and the ‘collective West’ it leads as an ’empire of lies.’ It was formed a long time ago: the filtering of the media space, a direct violation of OSCE commitments to ensure free unhindered access to any information, to sources that are located both in your country and abroad. All this has long been buried by the West.” [My Emphasis]
In response, the questioner asks a profound question no other non-Russian journalist has asked:
“Russia is accused of the SMO, but at the same time the West constantly sends weapons to Ukraine. So who is involved in the conflict: Russia and Ukraine or Russia and someone else?” [My Emphasis]
Here’s Lavrov’s entire answer to that remarkable query:
Sergey Lavrov: Ukraine is a bargaining chip, a tool that is being manipulated primarily by the United States and Great Britain. Such an Anglo-Saxon collective, which is now headed by the West. NATO and the European Union, which has lost its independence for quite a long time, are fully obedient to it. They rule the Ukrainians as an instrument of containing our country (as it is now called its “exhaustion”) and defeating Russia “on the battlefield.” These are the words uttered by the head of European diplomacy Jean-Pierre Borrell, Boris Johnson, and some politicians in the United States: Russia, Putin must be defeated on the battlefield.
This is to answer the question of whether there are any prospects for negotiations. The West does not allow Ukraine to negotiate. Two months ago, Ukraine seemed to put forward a proposal on how to resolve this issue. We took these proposals as a basis. So a day later, the West forbade Ukrainians to continue this process. They toughened their position, there was a provocation in the village of Bucha, which was obviously staged. Three days after Russian servicemen left the area: people lived there, the mayor was driving through the streets. And only three days later the bodies were found there. So far, the names of the victims in Bucha, shown by Western television channels and social networks, no one has presented to anyone and did not announce information about what kind of injuries these people had, which led to their death. This once again shows that the West does not want to present any facts to anyone. It is important for him to throw a provocation, to make a loud noise out of it. Then, when people start trying to understand the facts, they “put it aside” and come up with a new fake news.
You see how Ukraine is being pumped with weapons and heavy weapons. Now the Americans are giving multiple rocket launchers. Immediately, the British made a fuss, who, apparently, were waiting for the go-ahead from Washington: they say, and now we will give the Ukrainians MLRS. It’s a risky path. At the same time, they declare that “they are fighting with the Russians, the Ukrainians are dying – let them die, and we only give weapons,” which, in the end, will lead to the death of even more Ukrainians.
Mariupol, Azovstal – all tasks were solved and with minimal losses. You know that President Vladimir Putin gave an order not to storm Azovstal. As a result of the siege, the notorious thugs from the Azov battalion who were there simply surrendered. They are now testifying. I think that they will tell a lot of interesting things about how this neo-Nazi theory and practice were embodied in the daily life of the Ukrainian state, including under President Zelensky. [My Emphasis]
Of course, Lavrov’s answer doesn’t surprise us at all, nor do any of his other revelations. Lavrov is then asked to comment upon the sanctions and their sixth set. He relates much we already know then specifically deals with #6 and what will be the very, very long term affects of all the illegalities:
“As for us, the ‘sixth package’, restrictions on the supply of hydrocarbons by sea. Oil, by and large, does not obey politics, there is a demand for it. Oil markets do not follow political ‘orders’, ‘whims’. We have alternative markets, where we are already increasing sales. Given the price level that has been established as a result of western policy, we do not have any budget losses. On the contrary, this year we will significantly increase the profits received from the export of our energy resources.
“We are learning from all of this. Never again should we rely on these people. That doesn’t mean we won’t talk to them at all. When they get ‘crazy,’ we’ll see what they tell us. In no case, from now on and forever, should we allow any critical spheres of life of our state, the lives of our people to depend on investments and technologies from Western countries. [My Emphasis]
Wow!! The Outlaw US Empire got its decoupling Big Time. “Forever” is a very long time. I’m sure a lot of ordinary Europeans will hear those words and their hearts will sink as their hopes for their future wellbeing are now sunk. The questioning switches to how this all is affecting BiH, where in his answer Lavrov points out further lawbreaking being done at the behest of the Outlaw US Empire:
Question (translated from Serbian): The West insists on its exclusivity. In the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, he does not allow anyone to be neutral. The Republika Srpska, because of the complex configuration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is in a more difficult situation than Serbia. It defends its position so that BiH does not impose sanctions against Russia. Given that some ambassadors to the UN Security Council or the Council of Europe are under the direct influence of Sarajevo and speak from the position of their political parties, and not state institutional decisions. How does Russia perceive the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Sergey Lavrov: BiH’s position is important if it is based on the Principles of Dayton, which state that all decisions should be made on the basis of the consent of two entities and three state-forming peoples. The fact that the West is now trying to illegally encourage the actions of Sarajevo, to make foreign policy decisions without any consideration of the position of the Republika Srpska, is a gross violation of Dayton.
I gave an example when the West lied: that NATO would not expand, that the Minsk agreements on Donbass would be implemented, that the Community of Serb Municipalities of Kosovo would be created. Likewise, he lies that he is committed to the Dayton Accords. In fact, the West is doing everything to persuade, in particular, Croats, to agree to continue to be represented in the general bodies by Bosniaks or people who fully agree with them politically. I do not want to say that the Bosniaks are wrong in any way, but simply the Dayton Principles require the consent of the three state-forming peoples.
As for Bosnia’s independence. Note that the Americans have a special ambassador for electoral reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This says a lot about how “independent” the authorities in Sarajevo are.
Question (translated from Serbian): Not only the Americans have such an ambassador, but the British have a special envoy, and the Germans too. They believe that they can interfere in internal affairs. At the same time, any words of the Russian ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example, on the issue of NATO, they call Russia’s interference in the internal affairs of the country.
Sergey Lavrov: This is the Western manner, their megalomania and habit of constantly lying in order to justify their own lawlessness.
You mentioned the special representatives. There is a High Representative for BiH, his function was indeed laid down in the Dayton Accords. It clearly stated that he should be appointed for a short period. Back in 2006, the Steering Committee of the BiH Peace Implementation Council decided that it was time to “close the shop” and abolish the post of High Representative. But under various artificial, far-fetched pretexts, this process was delayed. When the term of the previous High Representative expired, we said that it was time to move to a more respectful policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. The country has been independent for decades, it is still ruled by some appointed representative who has priority by all state bodies of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In response to this, the West told us that it is necessary to continue this practice. The only goal is to keep the whole of Bosnia and Herzegovina in suspense and not to let go of itself. At the same time, the disobedient, represented by the Republika Srpska, should also be conquered and subordinated to this dictate.
K. Schmidt from Germany was appointed as a gross violation of the procedure that should have been applied. First, this procedure provides for the nomination of such a candidate with the consent of all members of the Governing Council, and no one asked Russia. Secondly, there had to be the consent of all three state-forming peoples. Thirdly, there had to be a decision of the UN Security Council. The West has abandoned all this. As a compromise, we and China proposed in the UN Security Council to approve, as it should be, a High Representative, but for a period of one year. During this year, prepare proposals on how to transfer the authority of governing one’s country to the Bosnian State itself. The West was categorically opposed, which means only one thing: it still wants to manipulate Bosnia in its own interests and make it another springboard for the spread of NATO, for the expansion of the alliance in the Balkans. [My Emphasis]
I have never, ever read Lavrov use the following language despite its truthfulness:
“This is the Western manner, their megalomania and habit of constantly lying in order to justify their own lawlessness.”
I’m going to use it as a headline as it certainly merits one. There’s more on the situation with BiH, Serbia and the region in general. Overall, Lavrov says of the West’s policy, “It’s a criminal policy.” I hope the transcript becomes available in English as it needs distribution for it contains much more than just the Ukrainian situation. The overall illegality of the Outlaw US Empire’s policy since it waged war on Yugoslavia is certainly very important as the remainder of the interview indicates. There’s lots to rollback and correct that began in 1989. Unfortunately, for the millions that died as a result of all those events, they can only be atoned for and have justice served. Perhaps more can now see that such a process has finally begun, that it’s somewhat delicate since nuclear war is to be avoided, and that it’ll take some years to accomplish.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 4 2022 20:32 utc | 84
|
