Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 04, 2022

Ukraine Beyond Day 100 - Breaking Resistance, Deep Operation, A New Country

Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Army presents the current state (vid) of the war.

Two of the facts he mentions were new to me.


The Ukrainian army has moved seven brigades of its Territorial Defense Forces from the west into the area east of the Dnieper. If these were fully maned each will have had some 3,000 soldiers. That are a lot of troops but they are pure infantry without heavy weapons and with extremely little training. Col. Reisner also showed a collection of 15 videos in which members of such and other units describe hopeless situations, declare a retreat or call out their commanders for neglect.

Morale is so bad because those troops do not fare well.

Yves Smith, with a wonderful Daily Mail style headline:

The War Situation Has Developed Not Necessarily to Ukraine’s or the West’s Advantage But They Plan to Negotiate When They’ve Turned Things Around a Bit - Yves Smith / Naked Capitalism

A very long established contact forwarded this message from a former senior US military official:
Just in from an Army Colonel in the building:
“Spoke to someone today who said that the Ukie basic training is 10 days and then off to the front. 65% casualty rates. At least double or more the losses of the Russians but you don’t hear anything about it.”

I very much doubt that Russian units, the way they are currently fighting, have casualty rates of more than 10%. Russia is regularly rotating units in and out to give them some rest and to let them replenish. It is a classic Russian artillery war now and infantry only comes in when the Ukrainians are already defeated.

As this permanent grinding continues the Ukrainians will soon reach a breaking point.

Why Has Germany Been So Slow to Deliver Weapons? - Spiegel

The Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, fears that Ukrainian resistance could even be broken in the next four to five weeks. In a number of classified briefings in recent days, BND analysts have noted that while the Russians are moving much more slowly than they did at the beginning of the war, they are able to conquer small bits of territory each day. The BND thinks it possible that Putin’s troops could bring all of the Donbas under their control by August.

In a German language interview Col. Reisner explains what that 'breaking' of Ukrainian resistance would mean (my translation):

"Four mobile rocket systems, that's pure symbolic." - Jun 4 2022 - N-tv

Q: You spoke of a chain reaction that could develop on the Ukrainian side.

A: The danger is that general panic will break out in the pocket and the soldiers will try to retreat to a favorable line that is easier to hold. If this is done in an orderly manner, that would be a line east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. But if panic breaks out, that last line could be much deeper, at the Dnieper.

That moment would allow for a Russian 'deep operation' in which a second echelon of fresh Russian troops would break deep into the rear of the Ukrainian army on the west side of the Dnieper, wreak Ukrainian supply lines and chase down remaining resistance.

Some grown-ups recognize what is up.

Calls increase for ending conflict as Russia-Ukraine crisis hits 100th day - China Daily

Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University who served as an adviser to three United Nations secretaries-general, said that "it is in Ukraine's interest to return to the negotiating table, which it has refused to do since late March".

"I believe that the US should recognize that it acted irresponsibly in pushing for NATO enlargement into Ukraine and Georgia," he told China Daily.

The unpalatable truth in Ukraine - Andrew Latham / The Hill

[T]hat leaves only one other conceivable outcome: a fragmented and partly dismembered Ukraine, neither fully part of the West nor entirely within the Russian sphere of influence. A Ukraine fragmented in that the whole of the Donbas and perhaps other territories will be left beyond Kyiv’s control; partly dismembered in that Crimea will remain part of Russia (at least in Russian eyes); and not fully part of the West in that it will not be free to join NATO or even to have a meaningful partnership with the EU. Simply put, this outcome is not only not impossible, it’s not even improbable.

How the war will end … - June 3 2022 - Gilbert Doctorow

To be specific, from the very beginning the number one issue for Moscow as it entered upon its military adventure in Ukraine was geopolitical: to ensure that Ukraine will never again be used as a platform to threaten Russian state security, that Ukraine will never become a NATO member. We may safely assume that internationally guaranteed and supervised neutrality of Ukraine will be part of any peace settlement. It would be nicely supported by a new reality on the ground: namely by carving out several Russia-friendly and Russia-dependent mini-states on the former territory of East and South Ukraine. At the same time this solution removes from the international political agenda many of the accusations that have been made against Russia which support the vicious sanctions now being applied to the RF at great cost to Europe and to the world at large:there will be no territorial acquisitions.

If Kiev is compelled to acknowledge the independence of these two, three or more former oblasts as demanded by their populations, that is a situation fully compatible with the United Nations Charter. In a word, a decision by the Kremlin not to annex parts of Ukraine beyond the Crimea, which has long been quietly accepted by many in Europe, would prepare the way for a gradual return of civilized relations within Europe and even, eventually, with the United States

Welcome on board Gilbert:

Disarming Ukraine - Feb 24 2022 - Moon of Alabama

Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.

For economic reasons I later added a bit to that:

Novorossiya roughly includes the red and yellow areas in the above map. It also includes the valuable Soviet developed iron ore mines and factories of Kryvyi Rih west of the Dnieper river.

Iron ore from Kryvyi Rih, coal from Donbas, oil and gas from the eastern coast and the port of Mariupol together constitute the heavy industry that was the economic heart of Ukraine. Together they would constitute a viable and even well off country with 80+% of the GDP Ukraine previously had.

Russia can now afford go slow with this project. Time is on its side. Oil and gas prices are up. For Russia the war is monetarily neutral to profitable. The 'west' is already disunited. As the result of its sanctions on Russia its economies will slip into stagflation with social unrest just around the corner

Over time the urge for lifting the self-defeating sanctions will only increase the west's acceptance of Russia's solution to its NATO problem.

Posted by b on June 4, 2022 at 15:17 UTC | Permalink

next page »

Morale is so bad because those troops do not fare well

Very true.

In addition, the Ukrainian soldiers are resorting to cowardly acts, yesterday they destroyed tons of humanitarian aid that Russian troops had sheltered for distribution.

There is a different between war and cowardly acts.

Ukrainian soldiers sneaked up to an empty Chechen site and burned it down, the cowardly part was when they went through the Russian Chechen soldiers' personal stuff and burned a Koran on camera.

This act could incite an attack on Ukraine by other Middle Eastern groups.

VIDEO here

Posted by: Dean Oneil | Jun 4 2022 15:27 utc | 1

Interesting to track how the MSM glacially and grudgingly is accepting reality. Even more interesting to see how the US and NATO are driving a narrative which essentially can claim that Putin meeting his original goals is somehow a "victory" for the West (He never took Kiev; he didn't take all of Ukraine; he didn't invade Poland....)

Posted by: Boomheist | Jun 4 2022 15:28 utc | 2

In current Reuters reality the headlines read

Russia must not be humiliated despite Putin's 'historic' mistake, Macron says

Ukraine says no point in talks until Russian troops pushed back

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 4 2022 15:32 utc | 3

Frist of all, thanks b, for the platform. Nice to have a "go to" site that's trusted, and informed.

As to the Russian SMO, we'll see. Hopefully they'll continue progressing to a conclusion that enhances the struggle to achieve a truly multi-polar world. It's badly needed.

Secondly, thanks to all the informed, who post here daily, it's continuing my education..

Posted by: vetinLA | Jun 4 2022 15:32 utc | 4

From the previous thread:

Posted by: Wobblie | Jun 4 2022 2:25 utc | 250

Nearly 10000 military casualties in one hundred days from just one of the separatist militias.

Since the beginning of the year, 1999 law enforcement officers have died in the DPR, 8249 have been injured. Also, 604 civilians were killed, 1899 were injured.

Here is my guestimate of the total numbers:

- 10,000 casualties on DPR, with a 1 to 4 KIA / WIA ratio.

- An equal number in LPR: 10,000

- Again an equal number among Russian Federation forces: 20,000

A total of 40,000 casualties with 8000 KIA and 32,000 in the allied forces.

Ukrainian casualties are likely to be 3 times higher: 120,000. Also, because of poor medical care Ukrainian casualties are more likely to die, with a 1 to 2 KIA / WIA ratio. This would make 40,000 Ukrainians killed. Add to that 10,000 taken prisoner, means 50,000 irreplaceable losses on the Ukrainian side.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 4 2022 15:35 utc | 5

Yves Smith, with a wonderful Daily Mail style headline


(Imagine she came up with that herself or copied from an anonymous poster?)

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 4 2022 15:39 utc | 6

would prepare the way for a gradual return of civilized relations within Europe and even, eventually, with the United States

That's not ever going to be allowed to happen. Russia and China must both be conquered, this is for all the marbles now.

Posted by: nobody | Jun 4 2022 15:47 utc | 7

Even Newsweek is on board the shift:

"While U.S. and European officials won't admit it, there is a growing rift between Washington and some European countries as to what constitutes success in Ukraine. There's an agreement on what the ideal scenario would be: Ukraine establishing full control over every inch of its territory (including Crimea), and Russian troops withdrawing from the goodness of their hearts.

But as is often the case in international politics, the ideal is sheer fantasy, an outgrowth of our hopes and dreams rather than a reflection of reality. Therein lies the fundamental disagreement within the West. There is a divergence about what it will take to end the war in Ukraine and what a so-called victory in Ukraine is supposed to look like. The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as the U.K. and Poland, simply don't buy into the logic of a ceasefire when Russia troops have the momentum in the Donbas and occupy approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. "We must avoid a bad peace," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tweeted on May 25. "A badly negotiated peace for Ukraine would mean a bad peace for us all."

For German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, however, a negotiated peace is exactly what the situation calls for. Last weekend, the two European leaders held a three-way telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and implored the Russian leader to begin a direct dialogue with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi went a step further, tabling a draft peace proposal that included an immediate ceasefire along the current front-line, to be followed by discussions over Ukraine's neutral status, security guarantees for Kyiv and autonomy for Crimea and the Donbas. That Moscow and Kyiv rejected Italy's proposal doesn't paper over the fact that different European governments are starting to view the war in different ways."

Cracks emerging...
The one that really matters is if at some point Europe starts standing up to their US master...

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 4 2022 15:51 utc | 8

Just took a glance at the dead tree edition of NYT. Front page has a photo of an heroic Uke soldier being treated for his wounds. Man with long thin white hair, long thin white beard. Appears to be in his 70s. Text says Ukraine's winning.

One wonders if the photo editor chose the image to give the lie to the text. Who knows. Any who go past front page of NYT are in lala land.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 4 2022 15:51 utc | 9

Meanwhile in Ukraine’s Zaporozhia province thousands lining up in the sunshine for new Russian passports...

"The young man at 1:24 or 1:25 says, “For me, it is a great honor to become a citizen of a mighty state. That was my dream of eight years, you could say, after all those events that started in the Ukraine (in 2014.) I understood that nothing good would happen in the Ukraine.”

The short-haired lady from 2:04 says, through tears, “I am happy. I’m going to cry. I waited for this at least eight years. I wasn’t living here, I lived in Zhitomir (in mid-northwest Ukraine), and everything that happened there, I just couldn’t take it here (points to her chest.) All those streets (referring to politically-correct renaming of streets), all those prohibitions, you had to love Bandera, when you don’t. The prohibition on going to the Eternal Flame, but I want to go, my grandfather fought (in World War 2.) Thanks to Russia. Thanks for the liberation, thanks for the passports.“

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 4 2022 15:59 utc | 10

dead tree edition of NYT. Front page
Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 4 2022 15:51 utc | 9

Quit daily purchase in the mid-90s, when I actually lived in NYC; reasons beyond rant scope of MoA format. Now, I can't even see the front page, because (1) I quit Starbucks line-up to POS (2) I most def ain't paying for an web sub, when I can choose whtether or not to click 2nd-hand excerpts of wtf.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 4 2022 16:04 utc | 11

NY Yella Cake -100: June 4, 1922: Stroking Lenin

So the US won’t go to any of the international conferences, but Harding will join the investigation of Turkish atrocities against Christians?

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 4 2022 16:09 utc | 12

thanks b...

well it is 2022, - 100 years after ukraine was given that section in 1922.. i look at all this in a bigger picture way... we are witnessing the shift in world power with russia and china in the ascendancy and the usa descending.... maybe i am wrong, but that is what this shake up in ukraine is really about.. the wests values verses the east.. it isn't going to be easy or graceful.. a lot of innocent people have or will die.. but all the lies and bullshit that is a part of the ''charming offensive of the west'' add up to nothing.. propaganda can't win in the end, no matter how much money is put into it.. ukraine has been run by the west and it is reeping the rewards of being run and controlled by the west at this point.. either the ordinary person on the ground in ukraine is capable of seeing it, or they believe what they read in the kiev times....

@ karl luck on the other thread... i enjoy your comments.. as for canada being a racist country.. sure - what country in the world isn't racist in some way? at the same time i want to believe that something in people has the ability to rise above this.. so, i tend to think how we see the world is a very subjective matter.. i choose to believe something like cynical.. ultimately i have to live with the ideas i have about canada and for that matter the whole world.. i'd like to believe in something positive.. call me an idealist... cheers..

Posted by: james | Jun 4 2022 16:10 utc | 13

like - less...

Posted by: james | Jun 4 2022 16:12 utc | 14

Russia will annex Ukraine completely and in the western territory of the former Ukraine they will clash with NATO terrorists.

Posted by: Julio Cesar | Jun 4 2022 16:12 utc | 15

Petri Krohn | Jun 4 2022 15:35 utc | 5

I suspect your attrition ratios are a little out. I have been looking at a range of anywhere from 5 to to 1 to the more likely 10 to 1 ratio. Apart from the Chechen and volunteer forces who are involved in the frontal attack of the fortified positions, Russian Federation losses in this phase of the conflict I think will be very low.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 16:13 utc | 16

Do not bring cannon fodder to a artillery fight

Ukrainian loses in this war are said to be far greater that Russian or Novorossiyan loses. One reason may be that Russia has totally avoided the use of infantry as cannon fodder. But can an army fight without infantry?

Every generation of warfare has bought weapons with longer range. Romans fought man-to-man with swords. The phalanx was the long range weapon of the time, with spears that could kill the enemies at 15-20 feet. World War I saw armies in trenches with rifles, separated by a no-mans-land only a few hundred meters wide. In World War II a the gun of a tank might decide how close you could move to the enemy.

In the Ukrainian war the dominating weapon is drone-guided artillery. This creates a no-mans-land 10 kilometers wide. In the Nikolayev Oblast we have seen this in action. Any Ukrainian force that tries to attack is wiped out by artillery before it ever reaches the Russian lines.

Ukraine is desperately trying to hold on to every inch of Novorossiya. For this it uses infantry in trenches. This fodder now largely consists of Territorial Defense Forces with little training or combat skills. These forces are being decimated by Russian artillery. We have seen no video of Russians in similar trenches. Maybe Russia does not need defensive trenches, as long as it always attacking, or at least on the move.

This post by Vladlen TatarZky may explain why.

In April 2022, new goals of the NWO in Ukraine were announced, namely, reaching the borders of the LDNR and securing in already liberated territories. As I understand it, it was supposed to attack in two converging directions from the Zaporozhye region to the north and from the Izyum region to the south. If the boiler closed, then more than 50 thousand people would be surrounded. Ukrainian military. However, such a daring plan could not be implemented and we switched to the tactics of "small boilers".

The main difficulty in carrying out offensive operations in Ukraine is that in fact our troops have to go on the attack when the enemy's artillery is not suppressed. The reasons why we were not able to suppress the artillery:

- the absence or a critically small number of artillery radars.

- lack of effective reconnaissance of enemy artillery positions.

- the absence or scanty number of strike UAVs or kamikaze drones to destroy enemy artillery, immediately after detection.

- lack of organization of counter-battery combat.

- after the discovery of an enemy mortar or artillery position, a lot of time passed when our artillery could begin to suppress it. Two factors influenced this: communication and, in fact, the qualifications of the servants of the guns.

- the lack of a sufficient number of reconnaissance UAVs for round-the-clock hunting for enemy artillery.

Enough infantry can be thrown into battle, even with AK-12s, even with “mosquitoes”, but neither one nor the other will simply be able to reach the enemy’s positions if enemy artillery is not suppressed. Practicallyall the fighters of the assault groups, from different sectors of the front, note that the enemy, in 90% of cases, cannot withstand close combat, especially the newly formed units, and retreats. But due to the fact that the enemy artillery is not suppressed, it is not possible to hold the already occupied positions.

You can assemble as much infantry and equipment as you like, but the lack of an effective counter-battery fight will simply turn any, the bravest army, into "cannon fodder" and interfere with the solution of GEOPOLITICAL OBJECTIVES.

It is not a Masonic conspiracy that will stop our troops, but specific shortcomings in the combat work of each commander.

TatarZky says that Russian troops in fixed positions are also suffering from Ukrainian artillery. Maybe this is why Russians do not defend positions, but instead constantly move around. I have seen multiple cases, where some village is reported liberated by Russian forces, but next day on the maps it is again side to be under Ukrainian control.

Unfortunately the Russian aim at this point seem not to be liberating territory, but to kill as many Ukrainians as possible. This is a direct result of the Ukrainian policy of holding on to every last inch of Donbass.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 4 2022 16:14 utc | 17

"Crimea will remain part of Russia (at least in Russian eyes)"

what a twat. typical of western hacks who talk about a country while never talking to it.

as for other areas becoming sovereign or becoming an actual part of russia, the former is appealing and gives them some autonomy but also leaves them open to future color revolutions and yet more nonsense from the "dumbass region" in the west. i guess that's what treaties are for but still...not sure what objection there could be to full integration (other than typical financial ones but russia has shown it can navigate those with ease).

i've actually enjoyed reading doctorow for a while now...for the record, he was one of the few russophiles who saw this "SMO" coming and is actually inside russia (love the article where he details how he got in).

Posted by: the pair | Jun 4 2022 16:17 utc | 18

What the Kiev government is doing to their own troops is exactly why my father told me not to join the army, governments talk a good game about patriotism and defending the homeland. But at the end of the day, you as a soldier will never know when the government decides to just squander your life and lives of your comrades to save their own worthless hides. Rounding up hundreds of your own countrymen and shipping them off to near-certain death (65% casualty rate!), just to drag out a war that's already over.
Worst of all, we already know that Zelensky isn't going to pick up a gun and defend the capital to the last, he's going to get out on the 1st flight to the UK when it looks like the regime in Kiev will fall, so he can enjoy his cushy life in exile with his $800 million, hell maybe he'll go wind surfing with fellow exile, the president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani. A shameful comment on the quality of leadership in the NeoLiberal West nowadays, don't they know that purple is the noblest shroud!

Posted by: Kadath | Jun 4 2022 16:25 utc | 19

Forget Top Gun, part deux.

The sequel to the Fall of Kabul--the Fall of Kyiv--will be the blockbuster of the summer.

American C-130 transport planes will be making a special guest appearance, once again.

Grab a big box of popcorn with extra butter.

Posted by: ak74 | Jun 4 2022 16:27 utc | 20

" Over time the urge for lifting the self-defeating sanctions will only increase the west's acceptance of Russia's solution to its NATO problem. "

Of course it will because what we are witnessing is a game of " problem, reaction, solution ".

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jun 4 2022 16:28 utc | 21

funny how after posting that i came across this:

some perspective from someone with deep historical connections to modern russian history (and a little biographical info that shows - yet again - that beria was one of the foulest pieces of sh_t to ever walk on russian soil).

Posted by: the pair | Jun 4 2022 16:28 utc | 22

Debsisdead posted yesterday regarding the connection between Russia and Syria. This link
seems to suggest that he was right.
In the end however, the loser might turn out to be the US and the government occupying Palestine. Turkey will be aiming its forces against the Kurds. And there is no doubt whose side the Kurds are on, sadly, they seem to have thrown in their lot with the imperialists.
If the Turks go for them the likelihood is that the Iraqis will put an end to the effective partition which gives the Kurds enormous powers in Iraqi politics. Then the Iranians have a bone to pick with them: it looks as if the Kurds have been using their Iraqi stronghold to give Mossad assassins access to Iran.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2022 16:28 utc | 23

"Russia can now afford go slow with this project. Time is on its side."

Rather than just affording to be able to go slow, everything indicates Russia prefers a long war. US/UK created Ukraine as a quagmire to draw Russia into. Russia has instead drawn US/UK into the quagmire of their own making. EU is nothing more than economic cannon fodder.
Russia is using Ukraine as a catalyst for global change and I suspect Ukraine is/will be the graveyard of the US hegemonic empire.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 16:29 utc | 24

The sequel
Posted by: ak74 | Jun 4 2022 16:27 utc | 20

directed by Ben Afleck or Kathryn Bigelow?

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 4 2022 16:30 utc | 25

@ bevin | Jun 4 2022 16:28 utc | 23

i don't completely trust that news outlet... however, it is a complicated game with the kurds.. they get used like some kind of wild card in a game of poker.. i mostly think of them like a pawn of israel-usa, but they are too thick headed to see it..

Posted by: james | Jun 4 2022 16:34 utc | 26

When doing my reading on all things Russia/Ukraine this morning I watched an update by the Belarusian doing daily battlefield updates folks here will know as Military Summary. He covers the pocket b refers to in today's post. Because he didn't have a lot of info/details to provide as of 6/3 he did surmise. Here's a link to his summary -

Since leadership of any kind appears to be sorely lacking on the battlefield in Ukraine, not to mention the faux government, it is more than troubling to learn men are being plucked off the streets, scripted into the military and following so-called training sent to the frontlines. I'm starting to see posts via several telegram channels of Ukrainians refusing orders seen as 'suicide missions.'

No part of me can fathom what these civilians who are thrown to the frontlines are enduring. The sense of hopelessness must be extremely palpable.

Posted by: Helen | Jun 4 2022 16:43 utc | 27

That is an excellent balanced video. I wonder how much longer that kind of talk will be allowed on UTube?

"I believe that the US should recognize that it acted irresponsibly in pushing for NATO enlargement into Ukraine and Georgia," he told China Daily.

The quote from Sacs is interesting but Western politicians will never admit they were wrong. They would first let the war continue and support a rump leftover state. Only the Ukrainian military can end this at this point by total capitulation.

What concerns me is the Reaper drones being given to the Ukraine. Those are satellite operated by a control station on the ground. The Ukraine does not have satellites to control these drones. Who is pulling the trigger? Training a Ukrainian to sit in a US controlled ground station is too much of a fig leaf for the Russians to handle in my opinion.

The US is slowly dipping its toe into a direct conflict with Russia. The Russians stating they will hit the centers of power outside the Ukraine is a real possibility before the end of the year. Centers of power? D.C. and London come to mind. We are marching headlong into an epic global disaster.

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 4 2022 16:44 utc | 28

Unfortunately the Russian aim at this point seem not to be liberating territory, but to kill as many Ukrainians as possible. This is a direct result of the Ukrainian policy of holding on to every last inch of Donbass.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 4 2022 16:14 utc | 17

Yep. Extermination of the impressionable age group subject to eight years of Merican brainwashing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 16:44 utc | 29

Good to see the latest Martyanov video put up yeasterday (Thanks, RSH.) Always a breath of fresh air, Martyanov. His interview with Eva Bartlett is the one that sticks in my mind - covered a lot of ground, sorted out a lot of issues.

As I watched it the computer presented another video for my attention. A BBC interview with the Russian Ambassador. Half a million views or thereabouts.

I took time out to watch it. Not often one sees the other side of the story put in England. Confirmed the view I formed some time ago. The Russians know full well they've lost the information war in the West. And no longer give a damn. Just as well, if they come across this sort of material:-

"Now back to diplomacy - and comments by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has cautioned that the West "must not humiliate Russia".

In an interview with French newspapers published today, he said this was important "so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means"."

That's the Europeans desperately attempting to dig themselves out of the hole they've landed themselves - and us - in. And presenting those desperate attempts as "not humiliating Russia." Valiant information warriors to the last.

Backing a Kiev government under the thumb of virulently Russophobic neo-nazis was never a good move. Time for Habeck and the rest of them to accept that and salvage what they can from the wreckage.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 4 2022 16:46 utc | 30

james it wasn't so long ago that the Kurds were allies of the USSR and enthusiastic communists. There is a reason why Turkey's bete noir is called the Workers Party.
I agree about the source however, it is Guardian lite in a sense. Nothing is harder for a journalist to do than to rid himself of the prejudices he taught himself to love, pretending he didn't know they were the Boss's. And a condition of employment.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 4 2022 16:47 utc | 31

No part of me can fathom what these civilians who are thrown to the frontlines are enduring. The sense of hopelessness must be extremely palpable.
Posted by: Helen | Jun 4 2022 16:43 utc | 27

They will continue to die until they come to realise the enemy is their so called government.
I have perhaps a little empathy, but no sympathy for fools that are easily led. Everyone makes their own beds.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 16:58 utc | 32

@5 @17 Petri Krohn

Yes, something like that. Sort-of a battle of attrition, with the assumption being that UA makes up for an unfavorable casualty ratio, with an infinite willingness to sacrifice people. But in the East, it's pretty darn sure DNR/LNR/RF will end up with the land anyway. Especially with Ukraine shelling civilians in Donetsk a lot harder, there's no chance DNR/RF will give up.

The Severodonetsk/Lisichansk salient, in particular, with the 20-40km dimensions of the semi-enclosed area, no part of it is safe for Ukraine to deploy artillery into. The best they can do is gamble with their lives, do some damage and run, repeat a few times before caught. Severodonetsk itself is a death trap for Ukrainian forces, and Lysichansk too. Why they insist putting *more* reserves in, is a mystery to me. Works only if they consider the lives of their infantry as completely worthless.

A video from the past day showed is a group of Austrailan and Georgian mercenaries thrown in. Why they sign up for this is also a mystery to me.

Posted by: ptb | Jun 4 2022 17:01 utc | 33

An excerpt; "US agencies have directly and indirectly trained and empowered Nazis and ultra-nationalists at home and abroad to fight Russians in Ukraine. This program follows the blueprint established by Western intelligence agencies in Afghanistan and Syria."

Posted by: vetinLA | Jun 4 2022 17:06 utc | 34

The boys on the front in WWI were living lives of relative ease compared to the Ukrainians fighting the Russians. You have to salute them for hanging on, but....

Posted by: Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 17:10 utc | 35

The sequel
Posted by: ak74 | Jun 4 2022 16:27 utc | 20

directed by Ben Afleck or Kathryn Bigelow?

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 4 2022 16:30 utc | 25

The Fall of Kyiv will be directed, written, and star one of the greatest performers of our time. Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, and Tom Cruise are talentless losers compared to him.

Here is his IMDB webpage:

Posted by: ak74 | Jun 4 2022 17:15 utc | 36

Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 17:10 utc | 34
The Somme - 60,000 KIA's in one day. Messines ridge... Ukraine is a kiddies playgroup.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 17:23 utc | 37

To me "the west" talking of negotiations (without either Ukraine or Russia) or "compromises" and anything else of the sort is a ruse and cover to in the future point at and claim as some kind of "proof" that they were reasonable and impartial, this in turn they'll spin as being innocent and acting in good faith —neither of which is true— whenever some particular nasty plan takes place or is revealed.

A very poor and meaningless alibi. Such lame games don't and won't matter. They'll spin themselves to death.

So it is sadly nothing but the confirmation of "the west"'s continued bad faith, belligerence, manipulative character, malignancy, and a continued insult to both the world at large and their own populations.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 4 2022 17:23 utc | 38

i don't completely trust that news outlet... however, it is a complicated game with the kurds.. they get used like some kind of wild card in a game of poker.. i mostly think of them like a pawn of israel-usa, but they are too thick headed to see it..

Posted by: james | Jun 4 2022 16:34 utc | 26

Erdogan's obsession is with the Kurds, not with Syria in general. The position of the Kurds was (in the past) that they were ready to make a deal with Asad. But they were forced into a demand for independence by the Yanks, and they were occupied by said US at the time. Today there are still US troops on the oil-fields, presumably still forcing Kurdish policy.

I don't see how the Turks are going to collapse the Russian position in Syria. It's not particularly in their interest. However Erdogan also wants to get to get rid of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey; that is the main aim, I think. expand the Turkish controlled territory, and park the refugees there.

Posted by: laguerre | Jun 4 2022 17:27 utc | 39

According to Southfront the Luhansk PR has reported 10000 military casualties since start of year. Nearly 100 a day. I suspect the Donbas and Russian forces are comparable. Which would be approx 50% of the 600 daily causalities of UAF that Bernhard estimated recently. Nearly 100000 total military casualties seems about right. It compares to the casualties at peak of 2914-15 war (a smaller conflict with 35000 military casualties).

Posted by: Wobblie | Jun 4 2022 17:29 utc | 40

Change the pink area from "Added in 1922" to "Subtracted in 2022"

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 4 2022 17:30 utc | 41

Peter AU1, didn't you mean to say "casualties" - not KIA?

Posted by: Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 17:32 utc | 42

Posted by: ak74 | Jun 4 2022 17:15 utc | 35

the end to be like in the Hollywood movies

MUIR: So you will stay to the end, no matter what that means?
ZELENSKYY: Well, I would like the end to be like in the Hollywood movies, the happy end for my country.
MUIR: When we come back here, President Zelenskyy will and his concerns over the nuclear plants in Ukraine, the largest in Ukraine, the largest in Europe, now in the hands of Russians--in a moment.

Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 4 2022 17:36 utc | 43

Why they sign up for this is also a mystery to me.
Posted by: ptb | Jun 4 2022 17:01 utc | 33

It is all about US/UK imposing 'a cost on Russia'.
On the battlefield they are fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. On the economic front they are fighting Russia to the last Euro.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 17:36 utc | 44

Comment from the doctorow piece in b's intro:

"If I were Russia, I would tie Russia’s plans for those liberated territories to reopening the cases of Kosovo etc.
If Kosovo for instance is not given back to Serbia, Russia recognizes the independence of liberated regions of former Ukraine. And once a region is independent, it can choose to join any country it wants.
Russia might also tie Ukrainian territories to areas of Syria and Palestine occupied by Israel and the US.
And to the half of Cyprus occupied by Turkey.
Just a few examples…"


Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 4 2022 17:37 utc | 45

@Scorpion | Jun 4 2022 15:51 utc | 8

Cracks emerging...
The one that really matters is if at some point Europe starts standing up to their US master...

I am expecting/hoping these events will be the end of both EU and NATO. I suspect this is also part of the Russian calculations.

The Russians should only deal with individual countries in Europe.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 4 2022 17:39 utc | 46

Re #30:

Is it really winning if you had to resort to censorship and deletion of dissenting viewpoints? I don’t think so.

Posted by: Andrew Ho | Jun 4 2022 17:42 utc | 47

@Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 16:29 utc | 24

Rather than just affording to be able to go slow, everything indicates Russia prefers a long war. US/UK created Ukraine as a quagmire to draw Russia into. Russia has instead drawn US/UK into the quagmire of their own making. EU is nothing more than economic cannon fodder.

I agree with this. I suspect that historians will see it as an epic Judo move, Russia turning the west's efforts against itself.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 4 2022 17:54 utc | 48

My first post seems to have disappeared. Apologies if my post appears twice.

On the other end of the morale spectrum Chechen special forces singing Katyusha on their way …….

Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2022 17:55 utc | 49

...and Russian libtards immediately reposted it as bad news from Austrayya.

Becoming a good tradition.

Posted by: Arioch | Jun 4 2022 17:56 utc | 50

Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 17:32 utc | 41

Casualties it should be. In one day. Apparently total casualties for the battle of the Somme which went on for some months was around one million.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 18:02 utc | 51

It’s getting harder to find reasons to laugh. But not impossible:

Posted by: Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 18:15 utc | 52

Something you don’t often hear is how NATO is supplying Ukraine with very advanced and detailed sigint and satint on Russian abilities and movements. Are Ukrainian troops actually being led from DC?

Posted by: Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 18:17 utc | 53

When looking at military/geopolitical affairs, an interesting question to ask is whether one side has the ability to make the other side hurry up? If a military operation can proceed at a slow and methodical pace, it can be very effective.

Consider two different orders to a unit commander: 1) Take that hill, and 2)Take that hill by sundown. A commander who is ordered to simply take a hill, but to do it at their own pace, can do so methodically and with a minimum or risk and casualties. The second commander, who now has a time limit, must take more chances and probably suffer higher causalities to make that deadline.

What I think I see, peering through the fogs of propaganda, is that NATO and the Leader of the Free World have absolutely no ability to make Russia hurry up. There does not seem to be a clock ticking for Russia. There is no hurry to accomplish this task or another task before something else happens. The Wall Street Bankers assumed that their economic war would create this, but their failure to adequately project the outcome of their actions, means that they have lost this.

And if the Yankees were dreaming of a quick defeat of Russia so that they could move on to China, they are now behind schedule. And that's their real 'existential threat', which is the Chinese overtaking them and becoming the most powerful economy that makes the rules in the ad-hoc rules-based-order that the bankers have bequeathed the world. When your only rule is 'might makes right', then seeing the little kid on the block growing into an NFL middle linebacker is not good.

Its Joe Biden and the American empire that appear to be trying to beat the clock and thus becoming more and more frustrated at each time things don't go the way they planned.

Posted by: Robinson | Jun 4 2022 18:21 utc | 54

Peter AU1, I kind of thought that's what you meant. I don't think even Passchendaele suffered that many KIA. But my point was that the Ukrainians being shipped off to the front soon find themselves "abandoned cannon fodder". Living like animals in the woods. To his credit Haig genuinely cared about his boys and saw to it that their needs were met.

Posted by: Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 18:24 utc | 55

Delaying tactics to hyperventilate oneself to remain in a state of denial, that's why these seven more brigades are being thrown into the meat grinder. These are the "cheated on AP courses" and "vote stuffed my student class president win for my resumé" crowd who cannot imagine a world without a manipulable 'meritocracy' to justify their fawning obeisance to power. Mere common people are infinitely disposable in the face of staving off their greatest of tragedies: being openly proven wrong before their peers and betters.

You almost hear something like commiseration in these mainstream media articles trying to talk down these wizards behind the curtains. Like knows kind. It is still criminal pride and cowardice on display though for these government advisors.

Posted by: JR whenDallasdreamt | Jun 4 2022 18:25 utc | 56

PeterAU1 35 My great uncle was one of those 60,000 on 1st July 1916. Aged 19 he had volunteered when war broke out so he had 2 years training and the morale of his unit was high. Lions led by donkeys. I have every sympathy with Ukranian conscripts whose casualty rates are approaching WW1 levels and have fools directing them as my great uncle did. I am pretty certain today most Brits and Europeans would only join up if they felt the lives of their loved ones are genuinely at risk. The press would love us to believe that is the case. Their propaganda is failing and Europe, including UK and Germany will not be fielding a massive army again. Putin knows this as-well as anyone and his only excursions beyond the pre 1917 Russian empire will be to extinguish missile threats in Poland and Romania (if he has to) which will happen soon enough to discourage Sweden and Finland from making the same error. It will happen in whatever time frame Putin decides and I expect the west to scream and do nothing.

Posted by: English Patient | Jun 4 2022 18:27 utc | 57

@Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 18:17 utc | 52
Are Ukrainian troops actually being led from DC?

It's pretty clear this conflict is not Ukraine but NATO against Russia.

It's just that propaganda in NATO countries can't operate if there is human losses, thus they just privatise the human losses to a country that his leadership is OK to suffer from them.

Posted by: W | Jun 4 2022 18:29 utc | 58

Peter AU1, I though that's what you meant. My point is that Ukrainian troops on the front are being abandoned by their leaders. Hungry and undergunned as they are. Living like animals in the woods. Haig was much maligned for the casualties of the Somme/Passchendaele. But he genuinely cared for his boys and saw to it that their needs were met

Posted by: Citizenfitz | Jun 4 2022 18:29 utc | 59

The first French national to die fighting for the Kiev regime, 32-year-old Wilfried Blériot, was a Nazi: Rybar’s infographic (see the bottom right photo). Quelle surprise !

Posted by: S | Jun 4 2022 18:32 utc | 60

The Ukrainian army has moved seven brigades of its Territorial Defense Forces from the west into the area east of the Dnieper. If these were fully maned each will have had some 3,000 soldiers.

Might this be the reason, why the SMO does appear to advance rather slowly? It is far more comfortable and efficient to destroy "incoming" fresh Ukie troops within an anyway destroyed zone from established combat positions. If the SMO wipes up the Ukies in 3 days on the Donbass front, they would have to face then this same troops, better prepared behind civil population, city by city, far more messy, with similar results as Mariupol for infrastructure and civilian lives. Now they have a nicely onrolling conveyer belt of lightly armed, aka rather useless Canon fooder to take care of..

As long as the Ukies keep their hope they might win, they will keep going the conveyer belt. Once no further new troops arrive, there will be neither in any other place in Ukraine in significant numbers.

The final wipe up, up to Poland/Odessa might become then pretty straight forward.......

(probably overstating the importance or connections of Scott Ritter, but his surprising 180 about the importance of weapon delivery might even be connected, to convince NATO they can win, and keep sending troops to the front, if even a "known Russian propaganda asset" gives it some credit..)

Posted by: Joaquín Suizo | Jun 4 2022 18:38 utc | 61

don't they know that purple is the noblest shroud!
Posted by: Kadath | Jun 4 2022 16:25 utc | 19

Does that contain an allusion to some verse, or are you just waxing poetic?

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 4 2022 18:40 utc | 62

Macron with the don't humiliate Putin talk again. Last time this was advertised reports of 'Putins' humiliation with a failed bridge crossing followed shortly. Let's see if they follow the same pattern and report on some huuuge victory for Ukraine

Posted by: OhhCanada | Jun 4 2022 19:02 utc | 63

# 48 Down South

If somebody finds the video of the singing Chechens at a more accessible source, please post it! I don't have Telegram

Posted by: Zed | Jun 4 2022 19:21 utc | 64

Posted by: Zed | Jun 4 2022 19:21 utc | 63

Russian soldiers singing Katyusha in the front lines

Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2022 19:31 utc | 65

The Sirius Report

West's response was unanimous, but what do we mean by West? US, Europe and some countries in Pacific. From other countries of world? Almost nothing.

What Ukr crisis has shown us is an alarming sign. Russ is isolated from West, but West is isolated from rest of world.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2022 19:35 utc | 66

@Norwegian #45

You said:

I am expecting/hoping these events will be the end of both EU and NATO. I suspect this is also part of the Russian calculations.

The Russians should only deal with individual countries in Europe.

The SMO, no.
But the sanctions and the double/triple/quadruple/all-in sanctions?
Very possibly.

The rapidity of EU economic decline is simply breathtaking.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 4 2022 19:37 utc | 67

From IntelSlava

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡The strategic plan of Russia in this war is to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as to capture the entire Kherson, Zaporozhye regions, enter Zaporozhye and Nikolaev, which will create the prerequisites for a further offensive to capture the Dnieper and Odessa. How much effort and time they will need to concentrate troops capable of solving this problem is unknown, but they are not going to stop, - Arestovich.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2022 19:40 utc | 68

From IntelSlava

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡The Russian army grinds the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Severodonetsk and Lysichansk

Correspondents of The Washington Post spoke about the plight of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area.

The journalists talked about the situation with the Ukrainians, who said that it was difficult for them to hold their positions.

The Russian military is an order of magnitude superior to the APU in firepower.

🔹The Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer heavy losses, which affects the morale of the troops.

🔹The TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower systems, which destroy them even in the trenches, are especially terrifying.

🔹The Russian military prefer not to engage in direct confrontation, grinding the APU with artillery.

The summary of the journalists is that the defense of the Ukrainian army near Severodonetsk is on the verge of collapse, and their morale is as low as ever.

Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2022 19:43 utc | 69

Not exactly on topic, but broadly very much so. An old Samir Amin piece worth reading:

See also the newest Pepe Escobar piece on the Bilderberg Group hush-hush meeting in DC, in particular the attendees:

Posted by: JB | Jun 4 2022 19:43 utc | 70

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 4 2022 18:40 utc | 61

don't they know that purple is the noblest shroud!

Does that contain an allusion to some verse, or are you just waxing poetic?

One learns new things every day.

Empress Theodora, "The Royal Purple is the Noblest Shroud"

Byzantine or Eastern Roman Emperor Justinian, on January 18 of the year 532, was certain he was about to be overthrown by rebel leader Hypatius and killed. A fast galley waited at the palaces private harbor to take him and Empress Theodora to safety in Thrace. His timorous advisers persuaded him that the rebellion could not be stopped and that the way out for the imperial couple was flight. As the panicky leader made for the door, the indomitable empress rose from her throne and delivered a brief speech...

My lords, the present occasion is too serious to allow me to follow the convention that a woman should not speak in a man’s council. Those whose interests are threatened by extreme danger should think only of the wisest course of action, not of conventions.

In my opinion, flight is not the right course, even if it should bring us to safety. It is impossible for a person, having been born into this world, not to die; but for one who has reigned it is intolerable to be a fugitive. May I never be deprived of this purple robe, and may I never see the day when those who meet me do not call me empress.

If you wish to save yourself, my lord, there is no difficulty. We are rick; over there is the sea, and yonder are the ships. Yet reflect for a moment whether, when you have once escaped to a place of security, you would not gladly exchange such safety for death. As for me, I agree with the adage that the royal purple is the noblest shroud.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 4 2022 19:44 utc | 71

... Centers of power? D.C. and London come to mind. We are marching headlong into an epic global disaster.

Posted by: circumspect | Jun 4 2022 16:44 utc | 28

Don’t forget about those Harpoon anti-ship missiles that are floating around Ukraine, probably Odessa and also, probably, a UK project. Ukrainians certainly won’t be operating those systems themselves.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 4 2022 19:49 utc | 72

A MLRS barrage hit Donetsk city centre

‼️ 💥 Donetsk is on fire: they are inflicting terrible blows on the city center💥💥💥🫢🫢






Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2022 19:53 utc | 73

I studied at Oxford 1972-4. One of my friends was at Brasenose College, Haig's old college, so I witnessed the practice of undergraduates throwing their rolls at Haig's portrait on the wall. That's how little the students at Haig's own college thought of the man.

Posted by: Lysias | Jun 4 2022 19:54 utc | 74

Thanks you b for your valuable overview and insight in the geopolitical situation in Ukraine/Donbas.
By letting the liberated Oblast choose what political preference they want i.e independent states and possibly later by choice part of Russia is a very smart move by Russia. Particularly because that game is played by the UN laws. Its an eye-opener for me. Understand now the behaviour of the Russians towards those already 2 republics Donesk/Lugansk.

Posted by: DutchZ | Jun 4 2022 19:56 utc | 75

@ JB | Jun 4 2022 19:43 utc | 69 with the Pepe /The Saker link....thanks

The quote below is my understanding of the "messenger boy" status of the Bilderberg crowd

As Bilderberg follows Chatham House Rules, mere mortals won’t have a clue of what they actually “proposed” or approved, and none of the participants will be allowed to talk about it with anyone else. One of my top New York sources, with direct access to most of the Masters of the Universe, loves to quip that Davos and Bilderberg are just for the messenger boys: the guys who really run the show don’t even bother to show up, ensconced in their uber-private meetings in uber-private clubs, where the real decisions are made.

Still, anyone following in some detail the rotten state of the “rules-based international order” will have a pretty good idea about the 2022 Bilderberg chatter.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 4 2022 20:04 utc | 76

b says

“ As this permanent grinding continues the Ukrainians will soon reach a breaking point.”

They just did. They sent mlrs into donestk city. An absolute war crime.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 4 2022 20:05 utc | 77

Thank you b.
With reference to your map, I doubt if Russia will take the yellow bit or the light green directly to the north of it to the Byelorussian border. This part will be all that's left of Ukraine, and denazified and neutralized. The other light green parts will be taken by Poland, this is already in the works, with the westernmost green-brown bit split between Poland and Hungary. Never again will we see a Ukraine as it was before the Euromaidan coup. And a good thing too.

Posted by: pasha | Jun 4 2022 20:05 utc | 78

"The BND thinks it possible that Putin’s troops could bring all of the Donbas under their control by August."

That's the kind of analysis that told Biden the Afghan government would hold out for months. I'll be amazed in the LPR and DPR are not entirely liberated by the end of June.

By the end of August the Odessa oblast should be under Russian control and the city fully invested. I doubt they will bother to fight street-by-street for Odessa (or Mikolaiv or Kharkiv for that matter). Forces remaining in the cities will have to surrender once encircled.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 4 2022 20:08 utc | 79

The solution described by Doctorow would be the dream of the people in NATO and "The West" now that they are lsoing their war on Russia.

It was Borrell who stated the solution will be determined in the battlefield, and so will be....

We must recall recent statements by Nikolai Patrushev on that Ukrainian people will decide the oitcome for their country.

In this regard crowded lines of Melitopol residents for getting a Russian passport and expressing happoily to the journalists that this is what they dreamt about for 8 years, will get the dreams in NATO and "The West" for not so bad outcome and the formation of a independent country where they could infiltrate their dirty hands in the future to trash.

Borrell, in his usual raging, has already stated that the European Comission will not recognize those Russian passports willingly asked for by the residents of Melitopol and other Donbass areas....

I fear their passports are so valid as those of the Kosovars in the eyes of the UN...

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Jun 4 2022 20:16 utc | 80

The first French national to die fighting for the Kiev regime, 32-year-old Wilfried Blériot, was a Nazi: Rybar’s infographic (see the bottom right photo). Quelle surprise !

Posted by: S | Jun 4 2022 18:32 utc | 59

The thing that struck me immediately on hearing this story for the first time was the absolute impossibility of, whoever it was, being the first French national to die fighting for Kiev.

That blatant lie begs the question of how many actual French military / intelligence personnel have been killed during SMO.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 4 2022 20:18 utc | 81

@Posted by: Down South | Jun 4 2022 19:53 utc | 72

This is only for the simple taste of destroying Ukrainian cities and people they are not going to fight for nor have any possibility to do it.

This is revenge against peaceful civilians and a war crime recorded to the wordl to see.

Why would this people wish remaining into Ukraine in any way?

It is also understandable that they want to own the nationality of the nation-state which came in their defense after 8 years of this continuous shelling and destruction, blessed all the wya by NATO/USA/UK/EU who allegedly want to bring them "democracy and western values"....
I am sure they have had enough of that....of violence, terror, poverty, misery, mafia like blackmail...values which the WEF holds in reserve now for the Western population,as declared in the last WEF summit...

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Jun 4 2022 20:23 utc | 82

@ c1ue | Jun 4 2022 19:37 utc | 66

I don't think the SMO directly, but the foolish actions of EU / NATO will discredit and bring them down as an after-effect.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 4 2022 20:31 utc | 83

The territorial end-game will be what it becomes, organized by the locals as Lavrov and Putin have stated. The denazification and demilitarization will take Russian forces to every inch of Ukraine--there's absolutely no wavering on those points from any Russian source I've read. And yet again, the next issue after Ukraine is NATO and the requirement for it to move West back to where it came from in 1997.

Today, Lavrov was interviewed by the Bosnian Serb radio and radio company Radio and Television Republika Srpska, with the transcript for now only in Russian. This interview differs from others in one important manner which is apparent from the outset:

"Question (translated from Serbian): This sad occasion provided an opportunity for our viewers, including those from Europe, to hear another point of view – the Russian side. Let's start with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Since February 24, this has become the main world news. Little is known about what preceded it. Why did Russia decide on a special military operation in Ukraine at this very moment?

"Sergey Lavrov: At the beginning of your question, you said that it is important that Europe and the West know a different point of view. Serbia (where my visit will soon take place) is doing everything to ensure freedom of speech, fulfillment of its obligations within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to provide all OSCE citizens without exception with access to information. The West is not fulfilling these obligations. What I will tell you about is unlikely to be perceived by the media in Western European countries, in NATO member countries, the European Union, which have introduced and continue to impose prohibitive sanctions against the broadcasting of Russian media. TV channels and news agencies are blacklisted.

"You said before February 24 of this year, few people understood what was happening. This issue is from the same series we just talked about. All these long years, the West "hushed up" the severity of the situation, which was only escalating." [My Emphasis]

So, it appears NATO nations violated another OSCE Treaty(ies) on media and free speech, although Lavrov doesn't specify which ones, although I know he's spoke of them before. Lavrov then relates the events we all know so well that began in 2014 with a sidebar about Kosovo in 2013 as an EU behavioral example. Lavrov closes his history with these comments:

"It is a pity that in Europe it seems that until February 24 of this year, no one understood what was happening. This says only one thing – Western politicians did not want to touch upon these topics in the media space, so that their population, voters understood what was really happening.

"Recently, President of Russia Vladimir Putin described the United States and the 'collective West' it leads as an 'empire of lies.' It was formed a long time ago: the filtering of the media space, a direct violation of OSCE commitments to ensure free unhindered access to any information, to sources that are located both in your country and abroad. All this has long been buried by the West." [My Emphasis]

In response, the questioner asks a profound question no other non-Russian journalist has asked:

"Russia is accused of the SMO, but at the same time the West constantly sends weapons to Ukraine. So who is involved in the conflict: Russia and Ukraine or Russia and someone else?" [My Emphasis]

Here's Lavrov's entire answer to that remarkable query:

Sergey Lavrov: Ukraine is a bargaining chip, a tool that is being manipulated primarily by the United States and Great Britain. Such an Anglo-Saxon collective, which is now headed by the West. NATO and the European Union, which has lost its independence for quite a long time, are fully obedient to it. They rule the Ukrainians as an instrument of containing our country (as it is now called its "exhaustion") and defeating Russia "on the battlefield." These are the words uttered by the head of European diplomacy Jean-Pierre Borrell, Boris Johnson, and some politicians in the United States: Russia, Putin must be defeated on the battlefield.

This is to answer the question of whether there are any prospects for negotiations. The West does not allow Ukraine to negotiate. Two months ago, Ukraine seemed to put forward a proposal on how to resolve this issue. We took these proposals as a basis. So a day later, the West forbade Ukrainians to continue this process. They toughened their position, there was a provocation in the village of Bucha, which was obviously staged. Three days after Russian servicemen left the area: people lived there, the mayor was driving through the streets. And only three days later the bodies were found there. So far, the names of the victims in Bucha, shown by Western television channels and social networks, no one has presented to anyone and did not announce information about what kind of injuries these people had, which led to their death. This once again shows that the West does not want to present any facts to anyone. It is important for him to throw a provocation, to make a loud noise out of it. Then, when people start trying to understand the facts, they "put it aside" and come up with a new fake news.

You see how Ukraine is being pumped with weapons and heavy weapons. Now the Americans are giving multiple rocket launchers. Immediately, the British made a fuss, who, apparently, were waiting for the go-ahead from Washington: they say, and now we will give the Ukrainians MLRS. It's a risky path. At the same time, they declare that "they are fighting with the Russians, the Ukrainians are dying – let them die, and we only give weapons," which, in the end, will lead to the death of even more Ukrainians.

Mariupol, Azovstal - all tasks were solved and with minimal losses. You know that President Vladimir Putin gave an order not to storm Azovstal. As a result of the siege, the notorious thugs from the Azov battalion who were there simply surrendered. They are now testifying. I think that they will tell a lot of interesting things about how this neo-Nazi theory and practice were embodied in the daily life of the Ukrainian state, including under President Zelensky. [My Emphasis]

Of course, Lavrov's answer doesn't surprise us at all, nor do any of his other revelations. Lavrov is then asked to comment upon the sanctions and their sixth set. He relates much we already know then specifically deals with #6 and what will be the very, very long term affects of all the illegalities:

"As for us, the 'sixth package', restrictions on the supply of hydrocarbons by sea. Oil, by and large, does not obey politics, there is a demand for it. Oil markets do not follow political 'orders', 'whims'. We have alternative markets, where we are already increasing sales. Given the price level that has been established as a result of western policy, we do not have any budget losses. On the contrary, this year we will significantly increase the profits received from the export of our energy resources.

"We are learning from all of this. Never again should we rely on these people. That doesn't mean we won't talk to them at all. When they get 'crazy,' we'll see what they tell us. In no case, from now on and forever, should we allow any critical spheres of life of our state, the lives of our people to depend on investments and technologies from Western countries. [My Emphasis]

Wow!! The Outlaw US Empire got its decoupling Big Time. "Forever" is a very long time. I'm sure a lot of ordinary Europeans will hear those words and their hearts will sink as their hopes for their future wellbeing are now sunk. The questioning switches to how this all is affecting BiH, where in his answer Lavrov points out further lawbreaking being done at the behest of the Outlaw US Empire:

Question (translated from Serbian): The West insists on its exclusivity. In the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, he does not allow anyone to be neutral. The Republika Srpska, because of the complex configuration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is in a more difficult situation than Serbia. It defends its position so that BiH does not impose sanctions against Russia. Given that some ambassadors to the UN Security Council or the Council of Europe are under the direct influence of Sarajevo and speak from the position of their political parties, and not state institutional decisions. How does Russia perceive the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Sergey Lavrov: BiH's position is important if it is based on the Principles of Dayton, which state that all decisions should be made on the basis of the consent of two entities and three state-forming peoples. The fact that the West is now trying to illegally encourage the actions of Sarajevo, to make foreign policy decisions without any consideration of the position of the Republika Srpska, is a gross violation of Dayton.

I gave an example when the West lied: that NATO would not expand, that the Minsk agreements on Donbass would be implemented, that the Community of Serb Municipalities of Kosovo would be created. Likewise, he lies that he is committed to the Dayton Accords. In fact, the West is doing everything to persuade, in particular, Croats, to agree to continue to be represented in the general bodies by Bosniaks or people who fully agree with them politically. I do not want to say that the Bosniaks are wrong in any way, but simply the Dayton Principles require the consent of the three state-forming peoples.

As for Bosnia's independence. Note that the Americans have a special ambassador for electoral reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This says a lot about how "independent" the authorities in Sarajevo are.

Question (translated from Serbian): Not only the Americans have such an ambassador, but the British have a special envoy, and the Germans too. They believe that they can interfere in internal affairs. At the same time, any words of the Russian ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example, on the issue of NATO, they call Russia's interference in the internal affairs of the country.

Sergey Lavrov: This is the Western manner, their megalomania and habit of constantly lying in order to justify their own lawlessness.

You mentioned the special representatives. There is a High Representative for BiH, his function was indeed laid down in the Dayton Accords. It clearly stated that he should be appointed for a short period. Back in 2006, the Steering Committee of the BiH Peace Implementation Council decided that it was time to "close the shop" and abolish the post of High Representative. But under various artificial, far-fetched pretexts, this process was delayed. When the term of the previous High Representative expired, we said that it was time to move to a more respectful policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. The country has been independent for decades, it is still ruled by some appointed representative who has priority by all state bodies of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In response to this, the West told us that it is necessary to continue this practice. The only goal is to keep the whole of Bosnia and Herzegovina in suspense and not to let go of itself. At the same time, the disobedient, represented by the Republika Srpska, should also be conquered and subordinated to this dictate.

K. Schmidt from Germany was appointed as a gross violation of the procedure that should have been applied. First, this procedure provides for the nomination of such a candidate with the consent of all members of the Governing Council, and no one asked Russia. Secondly, there had to be the consent of all three state-forming peoples. Thirdly, there had to be a decision of the UN Security Council. The West has abandoned all this. As a compromise, we and China proposed in the UN Security Council to approve, as it should be, a High Representative, but for a period of one year. During this year, prepare proposals on how to transfer the authority of governing one's country to the Bosnian State itself. The West was categorically opposed, which means only one thing: it still wants to manipulate Bosnia in its own interests and make it another springboard for the spread of NATO, for the expansion of the alliance in the Balkans. [My Emphasis]

I have never, ever read Lavrov use the following language despite its truthfulness:

"This is the Western manner, their megalomania and habit of constantly lying in order to justify their own lawlessness."

I'm going to use it as a headline as it certainly merits one. There's more on the situation with BiH, Serbia and the region in general. Overall, Lavrov says of the West's policy, "It's a criminal policy." I hope the transcript becomes available in English as it needs distribution for it contains much more than just the Ukrainian situation. The overall illegality of the Outlaw US Empire's policy since it waged war on Yugoslavia is certainly very important as the remainder of the interview indicates. There's lots to rollback and correct that began in 1989. Unfortunately, for the millions that died as a result of all those events, they can only be atoned for and have justice served. Perhaps more can now see that such a process has finally begun, that it's somewhat delicate since nuclear war is to be avoided, and that it'll take some years to accomplish.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 4 2022 20:32 utc | 84

Following the fronts carefully, I see almost zero Russian gains recently. Russian shills making huge fuss over very tiny gains....the Biden entity says they just want to make it hard for Russia. That is actually a very
limited goal, and it is what they are doing.... All sources reporting very heavy defensive entrenchments being built east of Kiev. The Kremlin tried that once; don't think they want another assbeating....stage two is almost over, successfully, but with 80% of Ukraine still in joosh hands. Have to believe stage 3 will be push toward Odessa. Will be a bloodbath.

Posted by: Robert Rangewolf | Jun 4 2022 20:32 utc | 85

LOL @ NATO FUKUS DoS shills who honestly believe that Russia wanted to 'take' Kyiv during that portion of the offensive in March/April. The operation there was almost certainly designed to accomplish one or three things including: 1) Hitting critical battle communications infrastructure (while leaving much civilian comms intact - the savages that they are), 2) Distracting the Ukrainians away from the east which is the primary goal from the outset and 3) Destroying military equipment and sending a message that Kyiv is in fact within their reach should they ever need to really take it.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 4 2022 20:41 utc | 86

@Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 4 2022 16:46 utc | 30

Macron trying to save himself from the ire of the French masses when, after the sound defeat in Ukraine, the ECB starts rising interests rates on the 1st of July the energy bill continues doubling each week after the other, and a new re-edition of the Yellow Vests floods the streets of paris and main French cities and villages...

It was Le Mairie who, along with big mouth Borrell, stated that the outcome of this fight will be decided in the battle field...

Let be it until all these rotten to the core political class of foreign agents in charge and of every political party get full sepulted on shit as they shitted on all European peoples for third year in a round and decades before...

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Jun 4 2022 20:43 utc | 87

Posted by: Robert Rangewolf | Jun 4 2022 20:32 utc | 84

Funny, then, how the Western 'legacy' media (aka the Mighty Wurlitzer) is suddenly very worried about all of Russia's "tiny" gains and for the viability and battle readiness of what remains of the Ukrainian armed forces. Time to send billions more "lethal aid" while American infants have no formula!

P.S. Since March, Russia has risen from ninth to sixth place in the ranking of the largest oil suppliers to the United States, almost doubling supplies in monthly terms – up to 4.218 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA).

How's that for a boycott, baby?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 4 2022 20:46 utc | 88

"In a word, a decision by the Kremlin not to annex parts of Ukraine beyond the Crimea, which has long been quietly accepted by many in Europe, would prepare the way for a gradual return of civilized relations within Europe and even, eventually, with the United States"

You just have to laugh at those suggestion. And mind you, this suggestion is made while the UA front lines are still largely holding.
There is no doubt that Russia is recognizing that there is no way back, no return to 'civilized relations' with the EU/US. For the US, doing so would be admitting defeat, that's simply unthinkable. For the EU, short of ordinary european citizens having lynch parties in Brussels, there is absolutely no way to walk back from the insane Russophobia that has gripped the continent.

Posted by: Chris22 | Jun 4 2022 20:48 utc | 89

Am impressed with the professional and capable conduct of operations by the Russian forces. The Ukrainians, that's another story. Russia will succeed on the battlefield and impose whatever settlement it chooses to. There's nothing to be done about that.

As far as the Western newsmedia coverage of the war, and the level of political discourse on it by elected leaders or members of the intelligentsia, well, it is all factually wrong across the board on issues big and small. All of the above parties have managed the remarkable feat of being colossally and unforgivably wrong on the biggest issue facing them and their countries TWICE in one lifetime--first with Iraq, now with Ukraine. They should be held to account for this, but won't be, due to the gross failings in Western countries' societies that put them there in positions of authority in the first place.

It is very hard to get a good read on the war from the news coverage available in the west. This is compounded by these parties' widespread (universal, in the case of reporters or professors) ignorance of matters military. What hasn't yet been remarked on is the clear possibility (in my opinion, near certainty) of a collapse of the Ukrainian military like France 1940 or Vietnam 1975. When that happens, the government collapses/surrenders and the war is over. With Ukraine, the collapse could well come from the top, with its leaders taking panic and bolting. I am not in any position, nor am I professionally qualified enough, to say WHEN it will happen. The Russian army senior officers in ops or intel certainly are, and they aren't saying. But Russia's operational objective is certainly this.

Posted by: Daniel N. White | Jun 4 2022 20:50 utc | 90

Maybe the West can send The American Blowgun Battalion to Ukraine; although apparently they aren't very effective even on poor little kittens.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 4 2022 20:50 utc | 91

Chris22 @88--

Do read the Lavrov interview @83 for confirmation of your assumption/comment.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 4 2022 20:51 utc | 92

@Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 4 2022 20:50 utc | 90

The EU doesn't allow me to read that link, even though we voted 2 out of 2 times NO to become a member of EU.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 4 2022 20:57 utc | 93

We fully agree with Doctorov and the prospects of a longer war.But it's even better than that.
Russia keeps maintaining the cooking pot on low fire and advancing the troops. If and when they eventually hit a consistent peace proposal, Putin keeps his word, say, of not annexing the region. BUT if not surprisingly the West still keeps SANCTIONS
it gets more simple: he stirs up a PR campaign in the region favoring one or two REFERENDums.A horrendous head ache for washington and Brussels.
namely whether people prefer to return to Mother Russia or not. With very good chances they will.
As our saying goes, bad Vlad will have both the knife and the cheese

Posted by: augusto | Jun 4 2022 21:01 utc | 94

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 4 2022 16:29 utc | 24:

Rather than just affording to be able to go slow, everything indicates Russia prefers a long war. US/UK created Ukraine as a quagmire to draw Russia into. Russia has instead drawn US/UK into the quagmire of their own making. EU is nothing more than economic cannon fodder.

Agreed 100%. The world should be thankful of Russia for choosing the long war. The long war minimizes Russian casualties. The long war exposes, more so by the day, the incompetence and weaknesses of the 5-eyes and NATO, in front of the world to witness. The long war gave China all it needs to find out to prepare for the eventual head on collision against the 5-eyes, whether NATO is part of that conflict remains to be seen. The long war gives the world the information to choose between Dollar vs. an alternative currency reserve. The long war also minimizes the risk of a nuke fiasco, since it is more unlikely that a creeping loss would prompt the desperate trigger.

Let's hope the non-western world would unite to help Russia carry-on with this long war.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 4 2022 21:02 utc | 95

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 4 2022 20:57 utc | 92

That's certainly very odd. It's a local paper's reprint of a New York Daily News story about a battalion of the American military stationed in Hawaii which includes some members who allegedly/apparently returned from an assignment in Indonesia with some blowguns, which they used to shoot at cats. This is seemingly part of a pattern.

An animal-welfare organization in Hawaii reportedly worries troops stationed at the Schofield Army Barracks in Hawaii could be linked to cats who have been found shot with blow darts, and in a couple of cases, mutilated.

“It is our understanding that a group of soldiers from the 1st battalion, 27th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, purchased blow dart guns while on a recent training mission to Indonesia and brought them home to Hawaii,” KAT Charities founder Dr. Karen Tyson told Honolulu station KHON.

Aloha Affordable Veterinary Services confirmed to KHON they had recently treated a cat named Katness for a dart wound to her neck. Tyson said she’s seen other felines with similar wounds and claimed a pair of cats were found disemboweled near a fast-food restaurant near the Army base. She said it was apparent those animals had been “purposefully mutilated” and not injured in an accident.

A garrison spokesperson told The New York Daily News the Army had heard of cats being abused Thursday and that an investigation was underway.

"This type of behavior is not tolerated on the installation and is not in keeping with our Army values,” that statement said.

According to Tyson, who worries the torturing of cats will continue, military police had been made aware of the issue.

Soldiers convicted of animal cruelty can be dishonorably discharged as well as facing fines and incarceration. The Wahiawa, Hawaii-based unit at the center of the controversy calls itself “The Wolfhounds.”

The Korea Harold reported in late May that at least 10 feral cats had been killed near the Osan Air Base in South Korea by U.S. service members. A TV station there reportedly broadcast what appears to be military personnel firing an air gun at a caged cat in the Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province.

Air Force personnel reportedly said animals that were roaming onto the base, which includes aerial runways, are handled “according to the rules.”

©2022 New York Daily News. Visit at Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 4 2022 21:07 utc | 96

None of the current European leadership and partitocracy members who clapped for this war to go harder and longer and Zelensky´s calls for the ruin of the Europeans at European parliaments must survive this war in charge or position, otherwise denazification will be incomplete...and the thing will only restart in a few Patrushev warned, "in an uglier manner"

As I already said, if it is for to lose everything we sweated through decades of hard work, that it is for a complete sanitization of the European land and the possibility of new fair promising life an future.

Another outcome would be a scam for the European peoples, including the Russians.

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Jun 4 2022 21:10 utc | 97

bizarre reporting of VSU / OP / US guidance in Severodonetsk

Posted by: ptb | Jun 4 2022 21:11 utc | 98

" Unfortunately the Russian aim at this point seem not to be liberating territory, but to kill as many Ukrainians as possible. This is a direct result of the Ukrainian policy of holding on to every last inch of Donbass.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 4 2022 16:14 utc | 17

Yep. Extermination of the impressionable age group subject to eight years of Merican brainwashing. "

This is also how you would destroy any possible future for a Ukrainian nation. Kill all the child bearing age males. Ship off the women to foreign countries alone, and destroy any economic potential forcing any remaining population to flee to other countries. Once complete, the remnants of Ukraine will be split among several nations, with one strategically / historically important piece becoming a " land without people " for a " people without a land ".

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Jun 4 2022 21:19 utc | 99

One hundred days into the war, my admiration for Russia/Putin has grown leaps and bounds. Back in December 2021, seeing the demand Russia handed to NATO/Empire, I thought perhaps Putin is a little unrealistic and out of his mind. The demands were impossible for any US president to comply with. He might as well ask the USA to break up into 51 states (Guam being the 51st). He was obviously aiming for war. Majority of barflies here agreed with this assessment.

So, in February it was proven that Russia did want to take military actions to settle this issue fundamentally. Not only that, they chose what most would consider the painful way--a long, slow war. Now, ground reality proved Putin's genius. Russian troops have been using this conflict as a training/conditioning exercise for the potential bigger flare to light up, one against NATO et al. It's been more valuable an exercise than Syria a few years ago. It also exposed the West for all its flaws and incompetence, bigger and more pathetic than most of us have thought so, even though by comments in this bar most of us have obviously been contemptuous of the Empire and its cohorts.

Well done Russia!

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Jun 4 2022 21:25 utc | 100

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