Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 5, 2022
The MoA Week In Review – (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-80

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:


Other issues:

Stagflation:

Crypto scam:

> Since the start of 2021, more than 46,000 people have reported losing over $1 billion in crypto to scams – that’s about one out of every four dollars reported lost, more than any other payment method. The median individual reported loss? A whopping $2,600. The top cryptocurrencies people said they used to pay scammers were Bitcoin (70%), Tether (10%), and Ether (9%). <

Shambles:

Use as open (not Ukraine) thread …

Comments

@ Norwegian | Jun 6 2022 6:01 utc | 92
Just wow. I’m sure anti-science barflies are way thrilled to hear of premature BOE predictions. There remain respectable scientists who stick with the 2050 forecast, despite it all. The link I posted is a paper not by any recognized authority (so far as I know), but assertions are backed up by solid references — in the custom of scientific writers: not expecting readers to take their word for anything — look it up, please!
Non-professionals have played key roles in the development of Climate Science from its inception. Thinking is allowed, but somewhat discouraged in various ways. Stuart Heinrich’s thesis, presented as a bit of a wild idea: What happens to the energy which is currently melting the icecap, after the icecap is gone? What sequelae are reasonable to expect the year after our first Blue Ocean Event? That heat energy has to go somewhere. Natalia Shakhova has dedicated her career to focusing on the ESAS (East Siberian Arctic Sea), where deposits of methane hydrate are uniquely massive and relatively shallow. There’s a good chance abrupt heating, from accelerated thawing all that methane hydrate, is cued to bubble up from the ESAS, in the wake of the BOE.
Too much ice-geek talk to inflict on this pleasant bar, I know. Especially for the tastes of those affecting incorrigible obliviousness — as a costume-ball fancy-mask to cover anti-science thought-control memes: We’ve always been at war with Oceania, pay no attention to that man behind the curtain…

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 6 2022 14:46 utc | 101

@ malenkov | Jun 6 2022 3:02 utc | 84
knitting is a nice past time… a musician friend of mine – male – does it, and finds it quite relaxing and therapeutic..
Posted by: james | Jun 6 2022 3:58 utc | 88

I was, of course, referring to a certain Dickens character ;-))

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 6 2022 14:47 utc | 102

For Chinese history buffs, “What’s next for the following 100 years of Chinese archaeology”, is a must read. Wang Wei, “the chief expert of a national research program dedicated to tracing the origin of Chinese civilization,” summarized:
“In the future, we plan to trace the temporal and spatial scope of this research from 5,500 to 8,000 years ago to about 2,800 years ago. We should let more people understand the excellent Chinese civilization through some immersive experiences or other means of introduction of these archaeological achievements.”
The number of digs taking place in China are numerous and would be focused on more closely if the world wasn’t absorbed is crises caused by the Outlaw US Empire.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 6 2022 14:48 utc | 103

FWIW “judgment” is the preferred spelling in the American English dictionaries I have at hand, while “judgement” is the preferred spelling in my OED. All sources at hand accept both spellings.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 6 2022 14:51 utc | 104

Lavrov held a press conference today, video info is available here. Also, Lavrov’s interview transcript with the Bosnian Serbian TV and radio company Radio Televizija Republike Srpske is now available in English, here. Unfortunately, no transcript for the second part of Putin’s interview with Rossiya TV-1 is available yet. Hopefully, that will change later today.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 6 2022 15:15 utc | 105

@ malenkov | Jun 6 2022 14:51 utc | 104
It’s actually a clumsy word for what I’m trying to get at, anyhow — indicating strain at the edges of conventional categories. Arbitrarily break off a chunk of reality and call it a fact, something true or real. The tentative grasp of a fact which we carry is something entirely separate, and most probably dynamic in those two dimensions of priority and probability (or confidence) — within any living consciousness.
My disagreement with many here is evidently chasmous with regard to priority — as in the kind of news stories which rise to the top. But it’s hard to get excited about such a disagreement — different strokes for different folks, you know. A sincerely easy-going, whatever floats your boat attitude is only attainable once we’re free from entanglement with each other’s beliefs.
Andrei Martyanov admitted to a fondness for Tina Turner recently. Ms Turner might posit the question “What’s belief got to do — got to do with it?”

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 6 2022 15:21 utc | 106

Here’s the machine translation of an important Q&A dealing with Cyber Security, “Response of the Special Presidential Representative for International Cooperation in Information Security, Director of the Department of International Information Security of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Krutskikh to the question of the Kommersant newspaper”:

Question: Last November, Russia and the United States signed a joint resolution on cybersecurity entitled “Achievements in the field of informatization and telecommunications in the context of international security and encouraging responsible behavior of states in the use of information and communication technologies”. This was largely made possible thanks to the agreements reached in June by the Presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden on the resumption of cooperation in the field of cybersecurity. How is this direction developing now? Does the Russian Federation plan to continue cooperation with the United States in the development of cybersecurity? Are there any plans to amend the resolution in light of the sanctions pressure from the West?
Answer: The unanimous adoption in December 2021 of the UN General Assembly resolution on international information security (IIB) is an important milestone in international relations. The document, developed on the basis of our draft and in the spirit of the Geneva agreements of the leaders of Russia and the United States, reflects the key principles of building the IIB system: preventing conflicts in the digital environment, preventing the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) for criminal and terrorist purposes, ensuring the sovereignty of states in the information space, non-interference in their internal affairs. For the first time, the resolution of the UN General Assembly fixes the possibility of developing legally binding norms in this area.
The approval of the document meant the readiness of the world community to “turn the page” of disagreements and launch the activities of the Open-ended Working Group on IIS , the only negotiating mechanism within the UN in which all countries can participate on an equal footing. In fact, it was a signal of the negotiability of key players in the field of ICT security. Including the United States, which since 2018 has been “in defiance” of us and most other states with secret initiatives in an attempt to subdue the agenda of information security. American support for the draft resolution, in fact, was a recognition by Washington of its impotence to impose its own priorities in this area.
The “double standards” and duplicity of the United States were revealed immediately after the approval of the document. With the support of our European and Asian allies, the Biden administration began to hinder multilateral dialogue and divert it from pressing problems – issues of strengthening peace and security in the digital environment through confidence-building measures, building the capacity of states to solve the problems of socio-economic development. Discussion and the search for solutions is replaced by an ideologized agenda, behind which Washington’s claim to the role of an arbitrator in the field of ICT is visible. Since March 2022, the Americans and their like-minded people have begun to “sink” the discussion in the UN in a coordinated manner by replicating accusations against Russia of almost all sins.
At the same time, the United States went to “freeze” any contacts on iis with us. Moreover, under the guise of slogans in defense of democracy, cyber aggression was unleashed against Russia and its allies. They use the “Zelensky regime” and the “IT army” created by him as a battering ram to commit computer attacks against our country. ICT attacks on critical infrastructure in Russia are on the rise.
In such circumstances, we have no illusions about the readiness of the administration for sound, pragmatic negotiations on the IIB. At the same time, we do not recommend the United States to provoke Russia to retaliate – the rebuff will certainly follow, will be firm and decisive. However, the result of this “mess” can be catastrophic, because in a direct cyber collision of states there will be no winners.
Contrary to this scenario, we continue to insist that there is no alternative to the peaceful use of ICTs and to prevent conflicts in this area. We are ready to develop appropriate international legal agreements with all states that soberly assess the threat of cyber war.

Behavior as usual for the Outlaw US Empire. It’s not to be trusted in any manner until it comes under new management, which won’t be anytime soon.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 6 2022 15:25 utc | 107

@Aleph_Null | Jun 6 2022 14:46 utc | 101

@ Norwegian | Jun 6 2022 6:01 utc | 92
anti-science barflies are way thrilled

Physics and Epistemic Viciousness
Applies to Climate Science

Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 6 2022 15:32 utc | 108

Joe Lauria interviews a Nazi poet.
Posting this here because it surely can be filed under ‘anthropology’
https://youtube.com/watch?v=PyOITgUeAUI
Lviv poet Irina Starovoyt & Joe Lauria

Posted by: Browser | Jun 6 2022 15:44 utc | 109

@ Norwegian | Jun 6 2022 15:32 utc | 108
The next time I need a crisp example of how internet talking-head videos (only Martyanov excepted) are such flagrant wastes of time as to massively insult the intelligence of anyone with sufficient parts-per-million of self-respect to tie their own shoelaces: Doctor Gonzalo Lira holding forth on dark matter! Just wow.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 6 2022 15:54 utc | 110

Gonzalo Lira becomes our own Zelenskyy, the only expert we need, assiduously attending urgent demands for gibberish, as they arise.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 6 2022 16:13 utc | 111

@ malenkov | Jun 6 2022 14:47 utc | 102
i am illiterate when it comes to dickens.. i have read a bunch of h g wells though..

Posted by: james | Jun 6 2022 16:16 utc | 112

Putin’s welcome speech to participants of the XXV St Petersburg International Economic Forum:

This year marks the anniversary of the founding of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum. I cordially congratulate the organizers of the Forum and all those who took part in its work on this significant anniversary.
Over the years, the Forum has become a very authoritative and representative international event.
The focus of attention of its participants – Russian and foreign politicians, scientists and entrepreneurs – is a variety of topics of the domestic and world economy: from specific areas of sectoral cooperation to ensuring information security and environmental protection. In the course of direct and constructive communication, mutually beneficial long-term contracts are concluded, and business experience is exchanged.
The anniversary meeting is taking place at a difficult time for the entire international community. Long-term mistakes of Western countries in economic policy and illegitimate sanctions have led to a wave of global inflation, to the destruction of the usual logistics and production chains, to a sharp increase in poverty and food shortages. But, as it happens, along with the challenges, prospects also open up. That is why the motto of the Forum – “New World – New Opportunities” – is so relevant.
I am convinced that for Russia the 2020s will be a period of strengthening economic sovereignty, which provides for the accelerated development of its own infrastructure and technological base, a qualitative increase in the level of training of specialists, as well as the formation of an independent and effective financial system. At the same time, the Russian economy will increasingly rely on private initiative and, of course, will maintain a course towards openness and broad international cooperation.
It is in our common interest to stimulate trade and investment, encourage joint development of technologies, strengthen financial and stock markets, and increase the share of settlements in national currencies. It is important to introduce and develop truly mutually beneficial integration models – as is already being done in the Eurasian Economic Union.
I am confident that the Forum will continue to make a significant contribution to the solution of many priority tasks facing humanity, and its distinctive features will invariably remain mutual trust, content, attitude to fruitful dialogue and partnership.
I wish you success and all the best. [My Emphasis]

I imagine most of the participants are from the Global South. The transcript came from an unusual source: the MFA’s VK page, which has quite a lot of info not included on its Russian language page.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 6 2022 17:36 utc | 113

Arizona cops stand by and watch man drown. protecting and serving like the Uvalde cops.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 6 2022 18:36 utc | 114

more youtube science, this time from noted climatologist Gonzalo Lira.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 6 2022 18:38 utc | 115

Linked in Mk Bhadrakumar’s Twitter account is this excellent piece by former Foreign Secretary of India, Kanwal Sibal. I think his discussion is definitely on par with that of Russian and Chinese diplomats.
Responding to American criticism of India’s stance on Russia-Ukraine conflict
https://www.vifindia.org/2022/june/06/responding-to-american-criticism-of-india-s-stance-on-russia-ukraine-conflict

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jun 6 2022 19:00 utc | 116

Today only one notable event was reported from the war. Ukraine shot down “enemy airplane”, the moment was captured on camera and very quickly got circulated in Ukrainian media, with much cheer.
Not long afterwards, picture of the wreck on the ground were circulated as well.
Somewhat later, some people noted a number on the tail, and what is more telling to a non-expert like myself, national emblem of Ukraine. Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori from friendly fire. (Wiki: a line from the Odes (III.2.13) by the Roman lyric poet Horace. The line translates: “It is sweet and fitting to die for the homeland.”). Perhaps Russia will take responsibility.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 6 2022 22:46 utc | 117

@ 117 piotr… thanks… so crazy!

Posted by: james | Jun 6 2022 23:40 utc | 118

A powerful impulse examined by Caitlin Johnstone; control.
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/06/07/youre-only-as-free-as-you-allow-your-world-to-be/
The Anglo/Zionist governments attempt to control other nations at the same time as they attempt to control their own citizens, who they distrust, with bureaucratic micromanagement. We are governed by control freaks.

Posted by: Paul | Jun 7 2022 3:35 utc | 119

Hey fellow barflies. I am a bicycle fan who got a patent for a bicycle saddle in 1999 and sold the patent in 2013, got sideswiped riding my bicycle in 2006 but am still enthused about everything bicycling.
Below is a link to a video fellow bicyclists might enjoy taken recently as part of the 2022 Portland, Oregon Pedalpalooza summer months of rides….the video is about the Cargopalooza bike ride
https://youtu.be/ICKdXvSW3B0

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 7 2022 4:11 utc | 120

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 7 2022 4:11 utc | 120
Thanks ph.
Nice to see pics from my HS/college years hometown
that aren’t about the riots or police/gestapo.
Can/do you still ride?
We’re about the same age so it’s maybe proper to say ‘keep on trykin’?

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jun 7 2022 8:17 utc | 122

@malenkov (100)

I lost quite a bit of respect for German youth when, in the mid-1980s, I watched them protest en masse the installation of Pershings and cruise missiles, and the USA in general . . . Marlboros clenched firmly between their lips.

To play devil’s advocate, what relationship does (did?) a company like Marlboro have with the USAian govt.? Marlboro is a US-based company, sure, but still…

Posted by: joey_n | Jun 7 2022 8:55 utc | 123

anti-speigel thinks there is something off with Bill Gates relationship to little babies.
baby milk shortages and how to work them.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 7 2022 9:20 utc | 124

“After Bulgaria and other countries prevented the Russian foreign minister’s planned visit to Serbia by banning his plane from flying over it, he answered questions from the international press and made himself very clear.”
anti-spiegel again on Lavrov and the Idiot Union.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 7 2022 9:24 utc | 125

Today — Tuesday — is election day in USA. Mainly “primaries” prior to mid-term elections in November. The most significant contest in the country today might be the recall against San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin.
USA is a police state. The Uvalde elementary school massacre drives that point home more conclusively than before. Police own the whole system, both parties, top to bottom, so completely — there’s hardly any point in maintaining a threadbare pretense of protecting people. Once upon a time, near the outset of our Covid pandemic, police in Minnesota staged a public lynching so grotesque, a nascent Black Lives Matter movement became the George Floyd Rebellion, across the country, for awhile. Remember? That upsurge, along with sheer accidents of timing, combined to elect a few DA’s willing to challenge police. Chesa Boudin can be regarded as a national symbol of a DA who will not play ball with the boys in blue — according to the boys in blue, that is.
San Francisco shows its true colors in all matters involving law enforcement, time and again. You’ll find zero daylight between Mayor London Breed and the SF POA, but that’s been the case for all SF mayors — with the possible exception of Mayor George Moscone, who was executed (along with Harvey Milk) by a policeman. Boudin’s election as DA was a fluke — the possibility of him serving the people is horrible for parasites to contemplate. National resources have poured way more into this recall than was spent on the original race, because it’s urgent to make an example of Chesa Boudin so that everyone gets the message: We are not allowed to have any DA’s independent of the police.
People are buying it. Chesa Boudin turning back this recall looks extremely unlikely, imho. So much for Black Lives Matter. Oh well, that was fun, while it lasted.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 7 2022 9:51 utc | 126

Nothing surprises me anymore:
https://xymphora.blogspot.com/2022/06/kilarys-still-got-it.html

Posted by: Paul | Jun 7 2022 9:59 utc | 127

To play devil’s advocate, what relationship does (did?) a company like Marlboro have with the USAian govt.? Marlboro is a US-based company, sure, but still…
Posted by: joey_n | Jun 7 2022 8:55 utc | 123

Well, I guess that’s one way of looking at it. But then, for consistency’s sake, one should’ve had no problem buying products produced in Apartheid South Africa (“heck, the government didn’t make it”) — still a topical issue at the time — or squatter settlements in the West Bank (“it’s not an IDF product!), something with which Germans don’t dare to have a problem even now.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 7 2022 13:38 utc | 128

@Joe #2
Let’s look at Wolff’s assertion: That Nixonian era price controls can be used to control inflation in the US today.
US goods trade deficit in 1972: $6.416 billion vs GDP 1.278 trillion. ratio is 0.50%
US goods trade deficit in 2021: $1.09 billion vs. GDP $23 trillion. ratio is 4.74% – roughly 9.5 times larger relative to 1972
Census trade balance data source
To me – it seems like the capability of the US government to impose price controls today, is far lower than it was in 1972 because so much more of the goods used by Americans is actually not made in America.
The US government can impose on US companies making goods in the US; its capability to impose price controls on US or foreign companies making goods in other countries is far less clear.
Wolff is more demagogue than economist.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 7 2022 14:58 utc | 129

@Piotr Berman #51
The comparison of crypto to lotteries is completely wrong.
Among other things: the lottery – there is literally a handful of winners over the lifespan of a lottery system vs. millions to hundreds of millions of losers, but the winners are (mostly) random. The not random part is that there are many historical instances of lottery fraud.
Crypto: there theoretically can be more than a handful of winners, but the fraud is always systemic. Furthermore, now that we are past the “startup” phase of crypto, there will not be any high multiplier “winners” anymore much less the millions/billion to $1 ratio of a lottery ticket.
But even worse: the reality is that CBDCs will almost certainly render stablecoins a construct without a purpose, and could well render the same for cryptocurrencies overall. In particular, the primary use case today (use, not investment case) is still some type of crime whether evading capital controls, evading taxes or outright fraud/theft (cyber crime, primarily ransomware). If CBDC-like, blockchain enabled financial tracking grows to any significant extent of the overall financial system, it renders the anonymity and independence of non-sovereign cryptocurrencies moot.
As for DeFi: DeFi is a joke.
The reality is that there is no benefit for DeFi blockchain systems since the overwhelming inefficiency of the existing systems is due to regulatory burden, not technology or other infrastructure related friction.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 7 2022 15:07 utc | 130

LOL
Large Scale Wind Farms Cause Warming – sciencedaily.com

Researchers report the most accurate modelling yet of how increasing wind power would affect climate, finding that large-scale wind power generation would warm the Continental United States 0.24 degrees Celsius because wind turbines redistribute heat in the atmosphere.

I would go further: I am fairly sure that wind exists because of temperature + humidity differentials between adjacent areas causes deltas in air pressure as well as causes the formation of various types of atmospheric currents. In particular: warm moist air rises while cool air falls.
Interruption or modification of these currents will not only change the extent of the atmospheric currents, it will also cause rainfall changes because these currents operate through the redistribution of water from say, seas and lakes into the air (as warm moist air), transported by air currents (i.e. wind) onto land.
Understand the above further: if we look at a desert – the deserts exist not because there is no water per se or because they are hot.
They exist because there is no air current mechanism to move the heat out of ground – said heat having been deposited there from the sun (solar radiation).
The Sahara and Hawaii are both between 500 and 1500 miles of the equator. They receive about the same amount of solar radiation, but in Hawaii – the heat from the sun hitting the ground gets transferred, via evaporated moisture, into warm moist air which then rises. At the top of the atmospheric cell (there are multiple types based on size), the moist air loses its heat to radiation into space and the moisture falls as rain.
No moisture, no mechanism to transport heat high enough to radiate into space. Rainfall returns water to the ground where it can then evaporate again and start everything over.
Changing wind patterns could easily have secondary effects beyond generating electricity.
But it is funny that converting the whole US electricity generation to wind power is modeled to increase US temperatures all by itself – and to a very significant (fraction of a) degree.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 7 2022 15:24 utc | 131

A pretty good writeup on the government’s case against Joshua Shulte: the person accused of leaking the Vault 7/Vault 8 CIA dirty ops cyber weapons:
The Surreal Case of a CIA Hacker’s Revenge – NewYorker.com
The problem though, is that the entire long article shows that there is no actual evidence of Schulte possessing the leaked info as investigated by the FBI, CIA etc.
The FBI/CIA etc know he had access because he worked on the tools; that he had conducted improper access to CIA networks at some point and that he was angry with the CIA. That’s Means and Motive and Opportunity.
However, they went through a huge effort to digitally analyze his phone, laptop etc including cracking 3 layers of encryption on a virtual machine resident data archive and found nothing but child porn. So of course, they’re prosecuting the child porn bit too.
But it does not seem entirely reasonable that someone who put so much effort into protecting his child porn stash, would not have any evidence whatsoever of improper possession of the stolen code there too. No trophies, no “I wrote this code so it is mine and I’m keeping a copy”, that type of thing which is ubiquitous among hackers.
The prosecution case is basically that he was super duper opsec on the Vault 7 leaked material but was less so for the child porn.
Seems much less rigorous.
In other words, that Schulte was smart enough to totally clean out any evidence of access or possession of the data but not smart enough to remove evidence of also highly criminal child porn?
What is talked about in the article is also pretty damning. Vault 7 included not just memos and documentation, but code – Wiki says 676 source code files. Now this is very likely not gigabytes of data, but it is equally not a few kb as in an email. Does the CIA not have any type of exfil monitoring? Once you get into non-email megabyte plus data transfers out – these tend to be far smaller in number and much more easily checked out.
All in all: if possession can not be proven – purely circumstantial MMO does not seem like a very strong case to me, much less proving that Schulte is the actual entity who stole the data and uploaded to wikileaks.
Proving the keyboard actions were conducted by the suspect is always the single hardest part of any cyber prosecution case.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 7 2022 15:49 utc | 132

“Extracting energy from the wind causes climatic impacts that are small compared to current projections of 21st century warming, but large compared to the effect of reducing US electricity emissions to zero with solar. Researchers report the most accurate modelling yet of how increasing wind power would affect climate, finding that large-scale wind power generation would warm the Continental United States 0.24 degrees Celsius because wind turbines redistribute heat in the atmosphere.”
that’s the summmary of the article you are selectively quoting. are you now admitting we have to do something about fossil fuel emissions? LOL.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jun 7 2022 18:44 utc | 133

@pretzelattack #132
The authors of the study parroted an ideological line as opposed to the actual research they performed.
This parroting of the line is a ubiquitous practice employed by the vast majority of the climate change doom cult, as such, the utter lack of detailed study or knowledge relating the to details of said cult-like pronouncements identify these co-religionists as more flock than enlightened.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 7 2022 21:33 utc | 134

New Yorker has an overview of the case against Joshua Schulte: accused of being the perpetrator of the Vault 7 leaks The Surreal Case Of A CIA Hacker’s Revenge – newyorker.com
What is interesting is that the government’s case against Schulte is entirely circumstantial.
While there are details which paint a Means, Motive and Opportunity picture – there is no actual evidence that Schulte ever possessed the leaked data outside of the fact that he worked on some of them.
This is particularly interesting because apparently the investigators were able to crack a triply encrypted virtual machine storage contained a “vast trove of child porn” – for which Schulte will also be prosecuted.
To me, this is a discordant note. First, the government asserts that Schulte searched for methods to cleanly erase data.
To me, that means Schulte doesn’t have expertise in anti-forensics. In turn it makes it far less likely that previous existence of stolen data was successfully concealed. That Schulte held passwords on his cell phone to part of his triply encrypted data structure is another major piece of evidence that Schulte is not good at antiforensics.
The existence of “nothing but child porn” in the store is also very discordant.
It is very common for coders/hackers to believe that the code they wrote/hacked is their property because “I made it”. I actually find it more suspicious that there is zero evidence of any CIA related work on his personal devices, particularly in conjunction with his apparent lack of anti-forensic skills.
The apparent lack of presence of any Vault 7 data in his personal devices is also very hard to reconcile with the presence of child porn: the government is asserting that Schulte was so skilled in opsec to cover all possible traces of Vault 7 data and improper CIA IT access on his personal devices but wasn’t opsec smart enough to make his child porn inaccessible, or to store passwords more securely than on his phone?
Definitely will be interesting to see how this case turns out.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 7 2022 21:44 utc | 135

Gas prices – another day, another new record for gasoline and diesel prices. we may hit $5/gallon national average tomorrow.
gasoline

Current Avg. $4.955
Yesterday Avg. $4.919
Week Ago Avg. $4.671
Month Ago Avg. $4.317
Year Ago Avg. $3.060

diesel

Current Avg. $5.719
Yesterday Avg. $5.684
Week Ago Avg. $5.538
Month Ago Avg. $5.539
Year Ago Avg. $3.201

What else is there to say? I have posted predictions of oil prices due to the commodity supercycle for at least 9 months now.
“New Normal” oil prices means instead of $50 to $100 per barrel price range, the range could well shift to $100 to $150 per barrel – which in turn brings into play $200/barrel spikes.
And while there will be some demand destruction from the high prices – it won’t be anywhere as close as people think.
The EU instituted draconian gasoline taxes and has managed to reduce overall gasoline consumption 28% since 2010.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 8 2022 13:47 utc | 136

OPEC+ quota increases purely cosmetic
Why Saudi Arabia Isn’t Giving Up On Its Russian Oil – oilprice.com via nakedcapitalism

the OPEC+ alliance, comprising all the OPEC member states plus most notably Russia, announced a theoretical increase in crude oil production – of 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, instead of by 432,000 bpd as previously agreed.

the Kingdom raised its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to a US$6.50 per barrel (pb) premium for July to the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks, up from a premium of US$4.40 pb in June.

So in other words: OPEC+ announced a higher quota (which the previous increased quota wasn’t being met to start with) but Saudi Arabia then raised its oil selling price by $2.10 per barrel.
There’s more

For the U.S. economy, historical precedent highlights that every US$10 pb change in the crude oil price results in a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and for every one cent that the U.S.’s average price of gasoline increases, more than US$1 billion per year in discretionary additional consumer spending is lost. Politically, as shown in my new book on the global oil markets, since World War I, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election only once out of seven times if the U.S. economy was in recession within two years of an upcoming election. President Biden – or whoever the Democratic candidate may be – will face another presidential election in 2024, but even before that, he faces critical mid-term elections in November 2022, when his Democrats could lose their narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

As I have noted before: the US consumes about 100 billion gallons of gasoline a year and 40 billion gallons of diesel. If we take Simon Watkins’ metrics above: $150 oil means $5.75 to $5.90/gallon US national average gasoline price. The previous 2008 record average gasoline price which was broken earlier this year: even adjusted for inflation, is $5.37/gallon.
I don’t see even the “inflation adjusted” excuse holding up.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 8 2022 13:56 utc | 137

German industrial orders “unexpectedly” decline
source yahoo sports !?!

German industrial orders fell more than expected in April, the third decline in a row, driven by weakened demand and heightened uncertainty due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, data showed on Tuesday.
Orders for industrial goods dropped by 2.7% on the month in seasonally adjusted terms after a upwardly revised decline of 4.2% in March, figures from the Federal Statistical Office showed.
A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to an increase of 0.3% on the month in April.

Unexpected by morons, apparently.
Now combine this “unexpected” fall in orders with much higher energy import costs.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 8 2022 14:10 utc | 138

Political data point:
Chesa Boudin recalled: 60% voted for ouster (including me)
Chesa Boudin recall results

The most recent batch of results from San Francisco shows “yes” on the recall leading “no” 60% to 40%. The current results include all mail ballots received before Election Day as well as some in-person Election Day votes.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 8 2022 14:15 utc | 139

Curtailment is a real problem:
China’s Renewable Energy Fleet Is Growing Too Fast For Its Grid

Nearly 12% of power generated by wind turbines in Inner Mongolia this year has been wasted because the grid couldn’t take it, along with 10% of solar power in Qinghai, Economic Information Daily reported, citing government data.

Implications of the development and evolution of global wind power industry for China—An empirical analysis is based on public policy – sciencedaily.com

through analysis, this paper finds that wind energy in China has not been utilized well. For example, in 2020, China’s annual wind curtailment rate reached 16.61 billion kWh, which is equivalent to the total energy production of some countries a year.

The above curtailment number, if it was amount of electricity consumed by a country, would be around the nation with the 70th highest amount of electricity consumed in a year.
Note that the historical curtailment rate in China ranged as high as 16% of overall wind generated electricity! It fell in the latter 2010s – the above number represents “only” 5% or so of wind generated electricity.
But again: excess electricity cannot be dumped for free. It literally costs money to remove such very large amounts from the grid.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 8 2022 14:25 utc | 140

Andrei Martyanov’s blog led me to watch a couple of excellent videos at The Duran (I believe others have commented on those already.) I noticed how Boris Johnson is expected to resign shortly; Macron is considered safe because he just got re-elected (Alastair Crooke’s dig at Bruno Le Maire in the ‘disquiet summer’ article above should be noted though, I think); there is talk of rumblings in Italy; and of course, Scholz is expected to lose his position along with most of the SPD when the German government falls.
Did Merkel get treated like this, even in very very similar circumstances? I don’t think so but I don’t live there and don’t know what local media sources reveal. Then there is President Steinmeier, just recently elected for a second term, and famously un-invited to show support for Ukraine in Kiev. It’s all a bit odd, isn’t it? … Or maybe German politics are just like that?
Anyway – I asked Google what Steinmeier is doing these days. Turns out that he is in Rottweil for three days in a visit not without significant meaning, according to local media in English translation. From the Schwarzwalder Bote – a quick report that includes mention of the lineage of royalty from 887 to 1914.
https://www.schwarzwaelder-bote.de/inhalt.steinmeier-in-rottweil-besuch-vom-staatsoberhaupt-das-liegt-lange-zurueck.b16f0669-8f56-44b4-ac06-c91bc7543df0.html
Perhaps they are saying something there… another report from SWR, this one with videos and a nice quote/soundbite from Steinmeier:
“Rottweil ist eine Stadt zwischen Geschichte und Moderne. Uns hat interessiert, wie man insbesondere hier mit neuen Herausforderungen umgeht.”
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/baden-wuerttemberg/suedbaden/bundespraesident-steinmeier-zu-besuch-in-rottweil-100.html
I would be remiss if I didn’t include the first link under the Google News tab of my Steinmeier search, which is to Ukrinform’s report on how Steinmeier and Stefanchuk discussed Ukraine’s EU aspirations, just prior to his trip to Rottweil.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3499336-stefanchuk-steinmeier-discuss-ukraines-european-aspirations.html

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jun 8 2022 14:27 utc | 141

“Um 6 Uhr stand er in der Backstube.” Steinmeier in a T-shirt and apron rolling pretzels. Rottweil visit 2022
https://www.schwarzwaelder-bote.de/inhalt.steinmeier-in-rottweil-bundespraesident-backt-brezeln.3486e081-7aba-4532-bb02-1d66903a2cff.html

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jun 8 2022 16:34 utc | 142

@ Bruised Northerner | Jun 8 2022 16:34 utc | 142
. . . so he’s not entirely useless? ( . . . “er kann immer noch als schlechtes Beispiel dienen”)?
But this does raise the question: How can a Leberwurst make a pretzel?

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 8 2022 17:38 utc | 143

Below are Xinhuanet quotes on 3 subjects that I think are interesting with the first and third because of financial aspects.

NUR-SULTAN, June 8 (Xinhua) — Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi participated in the third China + Central Asia (C+C5) foreign ministers’ meeting in the Kazakh capital of Nur-Sultan on Wednesday.
…..
Secondly, the six countries should build a strong engine for post-pandemic economic recovery, which includes cooperation in the natural gas pipeline projects, the China-Europe freight train services, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the trans-Caspian transport corridor, jointly building a “digital Silk Road” and a “green Silk Road,” exploring new patterns of cooperation in modern agriculture, and further expanding the scale of local currency settlement.

==========

TEHRAN, June 8 (Xinhua) — The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced Wednesday that it has decided to turn off two surveillance cameras of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The AEOI said it has decided to, as of Wednesday, shut off the IAEA’s surveillance cameras for the online enrichment monitor (OLEM) and the flow meter, according to state-run IRIB TV.
The statement said the AEOI’s remedial measures are implemented in reaction to the IAEA’s “illegal behaviors.”
Iran has so far cooperated extensively with the IAEA, it added, “unfortunately the agency has not appreciated Tehran’s collaborations, it has, instead, deemed the cooperation to be Iran’s duty.”
Consequently, Iran has decided that the operations of the cameras of OLEM and the IAEA’s flow meter must stop as of Wednesday, the statement said, noting that the relevant authorities have been ordered to take the step.
The AEOI added that over 80 percent of the IAEA’s existing cameras are operating under the Safeguards Agreement, which will remain in place and keep functioning as in the past.
In an exclusive report on the same day, Iran’s Nour News, affiliated with the country’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran has placed on agenda a number of remedial measures in reaction to the IAEA’s “illegal behaviors” and “political reports”.
Last Monday, the IAEA released two reports about Tehran’s cooperation with the agency claiming that it estimated Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium had grown to more than 18 times the limit laid down in the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Iran rejects the reports as politically motivated and failing to reflect the reality of cooperation between Iran and the IAEA.

=============

ANKARA, June 8 (Xinhua) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his visiting Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro on Wednesday pledged to enhance cooperation between the two countries.
“There is a wide cooperation potential between Venezuela and Turkey, especially in trade, energy, mining, construction business, health, agriculture and tourism,” Erdogan said at a joint press conference with Maduro in the capital Ankara.
The two economies are complementary, holding various opportunities for new cooperation and mutual investments, he added.
Trade between Turkey and Venezuela, which increased to 850 million U.S. dollars in 2021, will likely reach 1 billion dollars this year, and aims at 3 billion dollars annually as soon as possible, according to the Turkish leader.
Speaking of a memorandum of understanding signed on Wednesday, Erdogan said this has strengthened “the legal infrastructure” of the Turkish-Venezuelan relations.
Calling Venezuela “a friendly country,” the Turkish president said he “opposes sanctions against Venezuela” and Turkey will stand by the country “from now onward.”
Maduro, for his part, expressed gratitude to Turkey on behalf of his people.
“In times of greatest uncertainty, in the most difficult moments and at the time of the pandemic, Turkey has been always by our side and supportive of us,” the Venezuelan president said.
He invited investors from Turkey into Venezuela’s tourism, mining, industry, logistics, banking, oil, gold and coal, assuring them of all legal and political guarantees.
Turkey has been continuing its trade with Venezuela despite sanctions by the United States on the Caribbean country.
Venezuela sells gold to Turkey in return for Turkish exports to the Latin American country.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 9 2022 5:30 utc | 144

We don’t get to do links to ZH but they have a posting there with the title

As Yen Crash Accelerates, It Puts Catastrophic End Of MMT Experiment In The Spotlight

As I was reading the posting it came to me that Japan could be the financial bomb that brings the world to a halt/pause.
Between Fukushima and the 2nd largest holding of US Treasuries, what could go wrong?/snark

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 9 2022 5:41 utc | 145

This is why Yellen’s “buyer’s cartel” proposal is delusional:
graph of oil consumers, 1970 to present
Note that in 1970, developing countries and Eastern Europe/USSR were consuming maybe 20% of world oil production. This meant the US, EU and Japan had some form of buying power.
Today, the amount of oil consumed by the US, EU and Japan is under 40%: relative share has fallen to less than half of what it used to be.
If the US/EU and Japan choose to not buy Russian oil, or will only buy Russian oil with a massive discount – Russia can just sell to the entire 60% rest of the market. Russia exports under 8 million barrels per day vs. the 100 million barrels per day of world oil consumption.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 9 2022 18:16 utc | 146

I stumbled across this about 3 min video from CBC’s The National. It’s a report on Boris Johnson surviving the vote of non-confidence. My favourite part of the coverage starts at 1:15 and at 1:43 there is a quintessential Boris Johnson moment (which had me laughing almost as much as Steinmeier in his T-shirt at dawn rolling pretzels – but not quite.)
https://youtu.be/IXd218LYjRc

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jun 9 2022 22:05 utc | 147

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
I read the data here, and I see that it is not what we want to see. Data. Not political opinion, not ESG crap. The name “Sam Carana” is actually a pseudonym, for an unknown collection of scientists and academics who, if they published such data under their own names or organizations, would immediately be shown the door. Yet these authors are trying to show the world, data. Data that transcend any and all political influences – despite their attention to “carbon credits” and such.
There really is a problem here. This problem has been hijacked, long ago (decades, before the current ESG crap), by political interests and others (read, money), to the point that the reaction to the mention of “abrupt climate collapse” is worse than accusing someone of “racism.”
In the biggest picture, I sincerely hope I am wrong. Naysayers, please read this sentence again.
In a normal world, in all respects, I would live a lot longer. I see bad things. Soon.

Posted by: no green bananas | Jun 9 2022 22:11 utc | 148

Sometimes a bird strike is just a bird strike – but other times, if you read and watch enough of the coverage, a “bird strike” becomes a drone strike (or some such fancy weapon I know nothing about.)
Canadian Air Force jet grounded after ‘possible bird strike’ at U.S. air show
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/canadian-air-force-jet-grounded-after-possible-bird-strike-at-u-s-airshow-1.5940445
What is it this time?? Trudeau and Defence Minister Anita Anand were just at NORAD headquarters, promising modernization. (Warning: very maple-syrupy video clip.)
https://twitter.com/NORADCommand/status/1534532802632458240

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jun 10 2022 1:25 utc | 149

Is it just me or is the MI-6, or whichever number it is, really on a roll right now?
Dead whale really ruining the experience of being carried across the beach by God
https://twitter.com/TheBeaverton/status/1535026475736485897
(Satirical news outlet)

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jun 10 2022 1:30 utc | 150

@no green bananas #148
Sorry, but any supposedly objective publication that screams “human extinction by 2025” is batshit crazy and zero credibility.

Posted by: c1ue | Jun 10 2022 14:28 utc | 151