One last bit on my post @ 30 with the fever dream about German politics.
So has Germany managed to gather the “let’s just do what the US and Britain are doing” group with the tip-of-the-spear issue du jour, and forced them to choose between amassing themselves in their own party or joining one of the two majority parties?? Is this the current incarnation of Germany’s Green Party?? Damn that’s crafty.
I suppose this is easier to do in a non-Anglo speaking country. Truth be told, I’ve voted Green for ages and Elizabeth May is one of my favourite parliamentarians. Although since arriving in Quebec, I’ve discovered the political savvy of this province and there are more choices available. As a non-Francophone I’m at risk of voting myself off the property though.

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jun 12 2022 16:07 utc | 203

Stonebird | Jun 11 2022 21:42 utc | 160
Sorry. I speak only two languages. English and Bad English.
What the Ambassador meant to say is, “It all depends on whether Xi currently has any concerns about what will happen to China after his death.”
Face enters less in to it. Every other leader before has played the “brinksmanship” with Taiwan. Failure isn’t an option for Xi.
Two years ago, Xi announced to the full Party Congress that China was going to war against poverty.
Last year, Xi announced at the last Party Congress that poverty had been “eradicated” from China. Because of Xi’s announcement, the Chinese government shut down ALL poverty relief programs.
China still had just as many poor people. They weren’t getting any more government assistance, because Xi declared them nonexistent.
This didn’t go unnoticed by his party opposition. And they began a whisper campaign regarding Xi.
Xi also announced that China was going to war on Covid at the same e Party Congress.
At the Party Congress earlier this year, Xi announce that his war on Covid was successful and that Covid had been eradicated from China.
Since that announcement, over half dozen cities and one district have been forced in to full lockdown from Covid.
The result is a bit of a power struggle between Xi and his opposition, in which more than a few lower officials, on both sides, have found themselves under arrest, removed or disappeared.
One thing about being the “Supreme Leader” of an oligarchical dictatorship is that you must be infallible. Failure isn’t an option. Some failures put you in a disadvantaged position, such as passing sweeping policies that fail.
If you have strong enough support, you can weather such tempests.
Thus, any “face” associated with military action in Taiwan is a true tiger by the tail. For Xi, failure isn’t an option.
Anything short of total victory on Taiwan, following his two previous failures, will result in his removal form power and probably the forfeiture of his life.
That includes a protracted war in Taiwan. If Xi can’t occupy the island completely and in short order, a long war isn’t something that China can sustain.
The serious bloodletting of what amounts to the financial and industrial future of China won’t be tolerable to the populace and would be entirely unacceptable to the CPC, should it turn in to a meat grinder of a sustained military action.
China’s one child policy seriously impacted China’s future nd reduced the ability of the next generations to sustain and grow China’s economy, industry and society over the next 30 – 50 years.
And the products of that policy are the mainstay of the PLA. Sacrificing the military in a bloody conflict is only possible through quick victory, which would add the Taiwanese population to the pool and soften, but not completely mitigate the looming harvest of the One Child Policy.
A protracted war the bleeds the populace of both sides, diminishes that and will surely result in the end of Xi as leader.

Posted by: JHW | Jun 13 2022 4:37 utc | 205

The only way forward really. We have to stop making tons and tons of ephemeral commercial crap.
@ Bemildred | Jun 12 2022 16:12 utc | 204
Scaling back, why not? I sure wish I heard more people talking like this. It’s practically impossible to repair anything anymore, for instance. This incredibly wasteful way of life has not always been essential. If we lived like our grandparents, with regard to energy consumption — can you imagine how radical a reduction that would be? Michael Hudson has said this Ukraine mess is a war to preserve fossil fuels, though it roasts the planet…
Sorry if you perceived a personal challenge from my words about methane math. My secret: I’ve gotten by with a heavy load of impostor syndrome all my life. Because I’m hopelessly jacked up in too many trades, I sneak around (past the sign which says “You must be this tall to ride this attraction!”) with a day-pack of dangerous (because larded with ignorance) knowledge.
I can’t win a credentials contest with anyone in any field, unless they hand out awards for wandering. Back when I started as a software engineer, they allowed mighty green hands — my Bachelor of Arts was in painting (you know, like GWB: useless).

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 13 2022 20:41 utc | 207