Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict …
The current open thread for other issues is here.
June 30, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-100
No, NATO Will Not Get Ready For War
I had a good laugh when I read this nonsense:
NATO to boost troops on high alert to over 300,000 -Stoltenberg
BRUSSELS (Reuters) – NATO will boost the number of troops on high alert by more than sevenfold to over 300,000, its secretary-general said on Monday, as allies prepared to adopt a new strategy describing Moscow as a direct threat four months into the Ukraine war.
…
Stoltenberg said NATO in future would have "well over 300,000" troops on high alert, compared to 40,000 troops that currently make up the alliance's existing quick reaction force, the NATO Response Force (NRF).The new force model is meant to replace the NRF and "provide a larger pool of high readiness forces across domains, land, sea, air and cyber, which will be pre-assigned to specific plans for the defence of allies," a NATO official said.
NATO does not have 300,000 troops to put on high alert. The troops are controlled by member states and I see no willingness by any of them to shoulder the costs that a real high alert status would have. Units on high alert means that they fully manned with no one on vacation and with enough supplies ready to sustain weeks of battle. All of that costs money. Member states will instead designate existing units as 'high alert' ones and change nothing else in their usual equipment and training.
The statement is pure NATO public relations fluff. Stoltenberg did not even ask or inform member states before he made that announcement:
June 29, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-99
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict …
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2022-98
News & views (not related to Ukraine) …
June 28, 2022
Another Zelensky Lie Debunked – White House Says Ukraine Must Give Up Territory
Yesterday I mentioned the burning shopping center in Kremenchuk, Ukraine, of which the Ukrainian president Zelensky falsely claimed that thousand people had been inside.
I asked:
Satellite pictures show that the shopping center is right next to the large Kredmash machine plant. Was that the real target of the attack with the shopping center being an unintended casualty?
It has now been confirmed that the answer to my question is 'yes'.
Today's report on the war by the Russian Defense Ministry says:
On June 27, in Kremenchug (Poltava region), Russian Aerospace Forces launched a high-precision air attack at hangars with armament and munitions delivered by USA and European countries at Kremenchug road machinery plant.
High-precision attack has resulted in the neutralisation of west-manufactured armament and munitions concentrated at the storage area for being delivered to Ukrainian group of troops in Donbass.
Detonation of the storaged munitions caused a fire in a non-functioning shopping centre next to the facilities of the plant.
Ahhh – "don't trust the Russians!" you say. Well, don't trust anyone I say, just scrutinize the facts.
Cont. reading: Another Zelensky Lie Debunked – White House Says Ukraine Must Give Up Territory
June 27, 2022
Newsbits on Ukraine – Lysichansk Cauldron, Civilian Damage, Reserve Troops, Russian ‘Default’
This was the Lysichansk area on June 2022 with the Russian positions in red.
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This is the same area one week later.
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The distance between the red fronts above and below has shrunk to 8 kilometer (~5 miles). According to Russian source there are some 8,000 soldiers and militia left in Lysichansk.
The area between the Russian fronts is under full Russian artillery control with drones flying above seeing anyone who moves to escape from Lysichansk to Siversk on the left side of the map. A Washington Post report describes what happens to those who try:
June 26, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-97
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict …
The current open thread for other issues is here.
The MoA Week In Review – (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-96
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
- Jun 20 – Ukraine SitRep – Lysichansk Cauldron – Sinking Morale – More Provocations
- Jun 24 – Ukraine SitRep – Zolote Cauldron Closes – Lysichansk Blocked (Corrected twice)
Related:
– What do events in the Donbass have to do with Russian victory? – Thomas Bergman
– Severodonetsk is not a Pyrrhic but a telling Russian victory – Asia Times
– SCOTT RITTER: The Fantasy of Fanaticism – Consortiumnews
- Jun 21 – This New Import Law Will Hurt U.S. Consumers
Related:
– US ban on imports from China's Xinjiang region takes effect – BBC
– We need a reset in US-China relations – Asia Times
– US-China détente on the horizon – Indian Punchline
– Interpreting history – Interview With Chas Freeman – Week in China
– EU companies in China pay the price for Brussels stance on Xinjiang – SCMP
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand – 1:19 UTC · Dec 15, 2021
> The new "Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act" that's about to be adopted by U.S. lawmakers might just be one of the most cynical pieces of U.S. legislation ever, and that's saying something.
A short 🧵
…
So here is a bill based on lies, presented as designed to "help people" when it in fact aims to destroy their livelihood, and to top it all will have disastrous effects on climate change. <
- Jun 22 – The Neocon's Dream – Decolonize Russia, Re-colonize China
- Jun 23 – Two Big Errors About Russia – By Helmholtz Smith
- Jun 26 – Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim]
Related:
– An Iron Curtain descends on Europe and the USA – Gilbert Doctorow
– The Return of Industrial Warfare – RUSI
The U.S. is collaborating with Lithuania, but not with the EU, to provoke Russia. Lithuania issued false claims that EU sanctions force it to shut down Russian traffic to Kaliningrad. The U.S. issues 'leaks' about Lithuanian troops in Ukraine. All this for the purposes of baiting Russia into attacking a NATO country.
- Kamala Harris in Munich: We stand with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – Feb 19, 2022 – Estonian World
- EU sanctions against Russia explained – Consilium Europe
"The ban does not affect mail services and goods in transit between Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia." - Lithuania limits truck transit between Kaliningrad region, rest of Russia – regional authorities – Jun 21, 2022 – Interfax
- Lithuanians Stick New Finger in Eye of Russian Bear – Jun 21, 2022 – Antiwar
- Russian anger at Lithuania puts spotlight back on US troops in NATO battlegroup near Suwalki Gap – Jun 22, 2021 – Stripes
- European officials scramble to douse Kaliningrad tensions – Jun 23, 2022 – Politico.eu
Senior EU diplomats warn the situation is serious and could get worse, fast. - Oped: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda: Now is the time to make NATO even stronger – Jun 23, 2022 – Washington Post
- Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say – Jun 26, 2022 – New York Times
At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine.
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-96
Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim]
The main stream media have no problem with contradicting their own reporting:
- U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say – Jun 8, 2022 – New York Times
Intelligence agencies know far more about Russia’s military, even as the United States ships billions of dollars in weapons to the Ukrainians. - Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say – Jun 25, 2022 – New York Times
A secretive operation involving U.S. Special Operations forces hints at the scale of the effort to assist Ukraine’s still outgunned military.
> [S]ome C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.
At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine. <
Another such scheme:
Cont. reading: Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim]
June 25, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-95
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict …
The current open thread for other issues is here.
June 24, 2022
Ukraine SitRep – Zolote Cauldron Closes – Lysichansk Blocked (Corrected twice)
[Corrected (twice) below]
In the last situation report about the war in Ukraine I discussed the situation near Lysichansk.
The Ukrainian leadership is still sending new units into the Lysichansk cauldron in the east. The Russians do not mind that. Their job is to "demilitarize" Ukraine. To enclose more troops in one swoop makes that easier.
biggerThe distance between the red Russian held area at the the top to the one at the bottom at the most narrow gap is a mere 15 kilometer or some 9 miles. There is only one open road running through it from west to east which is used for pushing resupplies to the Ukrainian troops in Lysichansk.
The map has since changed significantly:
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – Zolote Cauldron Closes – Lysichansk Blocked (Corrected twice)
June 23, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-94
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The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2022-93
News & views (not related to Ukraine) …
Two Big Errors About Russia – By Helmholtz Smith
by Helmholtz Smith
American and Western policy towards Russia is founded on two serious errors. (A considerable understatement, of course – the past thirty years show that conventional Western ideas of Russia are almost completely wrong.)
But these two are endlessly repeated and, no matter how many times they are proven wrong, they remain the foundational assumptions of the West's attempts to change or control Russia.
First is the idea that the Russian economy is feeble, unbalanced and dependent on income from the West. The second is that Putin is the chief of a band of thieves who, who if made to feel pain, will get rid of him. Sanctions will collapse the first and bring the pain to cause the second. (Another delusion is that once Putin goes, everything will be to the West's liking – but I did say there was a multitude of misconceptions.)
First let's consider Russia's economy. Op-eds that say that the Russian economy is the size of Texas or Belgium or Luxembourg or whatever simply translate rubles into dollars and gallop to their preassigned conclusion. They never ask how big the space program of the country Russia is compared to is, or how many nuclear submarines it makes, or new subway stations, airports or bridges it opens, or whether that country makes all kinds of airplanes and trucks, or how much food it grows and exports or anything else that actually measures a real economy.
As soon as they did, of course, they would see that the Russian economy is much bigger than the puerile ruble-dollar comparison suggests. And, a slightly closer look would reveal that Russia's economy is almost self-sufficient. But the West carries on confident that Russia is a "gas station with nuclear weapons" and its feeble economy can be easily collapsed. RAND based a whole strategy on "Russia’s greatest vulnerability… is its economy, which is comparatively small and highly dependent on energy exports
They persist in the face of all experience to the contrary. The EU cut food exports to Russia to, I suppose, bring people out into the streets protesting the disappearance of exotic cheese (remember Masha Gessen's heartbreak about my little cheese?) Russia responded intelligently and is now self-sufficient in food and Europe has lost that market. Biden was going to reduce the ruble to rubble but Moscow effortlessly countered him and the ruble is now tied to energy – one of the strongest foundations a currency can have.
And still the sanctions pile on. But it's educational – now we know a lot more about what potash is used for and where it comes from. And neon – who knew that was important? Rare earths! Beer bottles! Moscow is only just now starting to counter-sanction and the world is discovering that Russia is a major producer of a lot of important things and if you sanction them, you will find yourself running short of lots of things you'd never heard of. (You'd think anyone who owned an atlas would be able to figure out that a country as large as Russia must be a big producer of most resources).
Biden can blame Putin all he likes, but sanctioning energy and potash is a certain way to drive up prices all round. Biden used to think that Russia had "nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else". Maybe the people running Russia are better at thinking things out and seeing reality than we thought they were. (Yet another mistaken Western assumption – what is there in the last twenty years that suggests we're smarter than they are?)
The idea that Russia is a big criminal conspiracy and Putin is the Boss of Bosses is the foundation of the personal sanctions strategy. So-and-so is deemed "close to Putin", whatever that means, and he's prevented from going to Paris to buy cheese and his yacht is stolen confiscated. Angry, he sits down with the other capos and decides it's time the Boss was found face down in a bowl of kasha and blood. The think tankers tell us that Putin is the Chief Thief holding onto power by spreading the loot around, fake elections and making critics disappear. (By the way, wasn't he supposed to have tried to kill Navalny, where's the oped savant explaining why he's still alive?)
All elections in Russia are fake, all opinion polls are fake, all media is controlled by the Kremlin, the underbosses are hurting so why is Putin still there? It surely couldn't be that he is the very popular and respected elected head of state – to suggest that would be to call into question three decades of US and EU think tankery. Therefore he must be just one more sanction away from being whacked out. And so more names – all "close to Putin" – are added to more lists. But nothing changes.
These two errors run on and on. Russia is now the most sanctioned country ever and Western politicians still think another round of "tough sanctions" will do the job. But the more sanctions it survives, the more sanction-proof Russia becomes.
Wars are irruptions of brutal reality into fantasy and the Ukraine war is laying bare the empty complacency at the root of the West's view of Russia. It's going to be a cold hungry winter in Europe and in parts of America. Can't blame Putin forever.
But the depressing truth is that minds are rarely changed, you have to change the man. How much longer will the West's leaders outlast their repeated failures?
June 22, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-92
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The open thread for other issues is here.
The Neocon’s Dream – Decolonize Russia, Re-colonize China
On March 26 U.S. President Joe Biden called for regime change in Russia:
Speaking in Warsaw, Poland, on Saturday, President Biden said of Russian President Vladimir Putin: "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."
The White House immediately rushed to talk back that call for regime change and a day later Biden himself denied that he was calling for regime change:
President Joe Biden told reporters on Sunday he was not calling for a regime change in Russia when he said a day earlier that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power,” a surprising comment the White House quickly tried to walk back Saturday.
When a reporter asked if he was calling for Putin’s removal from office, Biden replied “no” as he walked out of church Sunday afternoon, according to Bloomberg pool reporter Courtney Rozen.
However, other parts of the U.S. government makes unmistakeably clear that its aims in Russia go even much than regime change. Tomorrow the US Government's Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) will hold a briefing on the "Moral and Strategic Imperative" that makes it necessary to "Decolonize Russia".
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As Nicolo Saldo points out:
Cont. reading: The Neocon’s Dream – Decolonize Russia, Re-colonize China
June 21, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-91
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict …
The open thread for other issues is here.
This New Import Law Will Hurt U.S. Consumers
Today the the U.S., suffering from high inflation caused by a lack of supplies, is launching the dumbest sanction regime ever:
A new law, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, goes into effect in the United States on Tuesday and will bar products that were made in Xinjiang or have ties to the work programs there from entering the country. It requires importers with any ties to Xinjiang to produce documentation showing that their products, and every raw material they are made with, are free of forced labor — a tricky undertaking given the complexity and opacity of Chinese supply chains.
…
In theory, the new U.S. law should block all goods made with any raw materials that are associated with Xinjiang until they are proven to be free of slavery or coercive labor practices. But it remains to be seen if the U.S. government is willing or able to turn away such an array of foreign goods.
The 12 million Uighurs live predominantly in the south of China's Xinjiang province. The area is arid and there is not enough water for the growing population. Over the years this had led to poverty, social unrest and, with the help of some Saudi educated Wahhabi preachers, to terrorism against non-Wahhabis.
June 20, 2022
Ukraine SitRep – Lysichansk Cauldron – Sinking Morale – More Provocations
The former CIA and intelligence bigwig Graham Fuller predicts a gloomy outcome of the U.S-Russia proxy war in Ukraine. Gloomy for Ukraine, the U.S. and Europe:
Contrary to Washington’s triumphalist pronouncements, Russia is winning the war, Ukraine has lost the war. Any longer-term damage to Russia is open to debate.
American sanctions against Russia have turned out to be far more devastating to Europe than to Russia. The global economy has slowed and many developing nations face serious food shortages and risk of broad starvation.
There are already deep cracks in the European façade of so-called “NATO unity.” Western Europe will increasingly rue the day that it blindly followed the American Pied Piper to war against Russia. Indeed, this is not a Ukrainian-Russian war but an American-Russian war fought by proxy to the last Ukrainian.
Contrary to optimistic declarations, NATO may in fact ultimately emerge weakened. Western Europeans will think long and hard about the wisdom and deep costs of provoking deeper long term confrontations with Russia or other “competitors”of the US.
Europe will sooner or later return to the purchase of inexpensive Russian energy. Russia lies on the doorstep and a natural economic relationship with Russia will possess overwhelming logic in the end.
Europe already perceives the US as a declining power with an erratic and hypocritical foreign policy “vision” premised upon the desperate need to preserve “American leadership” in the world. America’s willingness to go to war to this end is increasingly dangerous to others.
All the above had already been said on this website in late February and March. But it is good to see that seasoned intelligence people are now coming to similar conclusions.
Two weeks ago I wrote that the Ukrainians will soon reach a breaking point. Today's 'clobber list' by the Russia Ministry of Defense has an additional part about Ukrainian troop loses that supports that take:
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – Lysichansk Cauldron – Sinking Morale – More Provocations
June 19, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-90
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The open thread for other issues is here.