Why Shouldn't Russia Threaten US Carriers?
by Reasonable Peacekeeper
Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia does not consider itself to be at war with NATO. But actually, NATO, let’s say the US, is at war. Russia makes steady, though slow progress in Ukraine, and there are great risks when the U.S. continues to deliver more sophisticated weapons. I see two principal problems here:
- The Empire can wage war without skin in the game (Nassim Taleb). Printing their worthless fiat money does not hurt anyone; the military-industrial complex continues to make profit instead. For them, it is still a war without real cost.
- The absence of skin in the game leads to a situation where nobody takes responsibility, there is no incentive for that. With a president with advanced dementia, there is not even anyone to talk to reasonably.
Thus, by acting relatively mildly and measured as Russia did so far, it will never stop the empire’s war machine from escalating. This may lead to Armageddon. Russia therefore needs to play out its strength and point to the weaknesses of the enemy.
If the U.S. continues to help Ukraine inflicting damage on Russia (sinking of "Moskva", explosions in Russia), publicly threatening the U.S. carriers and sinking one of them must therefore be an option. With its hypersonic missiles, Russia can do that and the U.S. does not have the means to prevent that. The consequences would be the following:
- The risk of nuclear escalation is not higher, on the contrary. Europeans will whine and cry about Article 5 implementation, but beyond rhetoric, they can do nothing. The president cannot go nuclear for the loss of one carrier, because he risks the annihilation of his country. Escalating conventionally would put their entire fleet at risk.
- The US fleet is the symbol of their global dominance, such an act would demonstrate once and for all that this dominance has ended, something that has not sunk in into the U.S. public yet. A political rethinking may start once everyone realizes the vulnerability of their continent.
- The threatening of U.S. ships would sharpen the already existing conflict between the Pentagon and the warmongers in the State Department. Ideally, U.S. Navy commanders could revolt against getting sacrificed for the war hysteria in their homeland.
European leaders are stupid, coward and incompetent, but at the end, they are vassals. The villains are in Washington. There will be no peace until the empire gets at least a bloody nose. Waiting for the economic collapse, the Chinese strategy, may come too late.
---
b here:
I personally disagree with the above.
The sinking of a U.S. carrier would be propagandized by U.S. and 'western' media as another 9/11 moment. It would have the same belligerent consequences. The U.S. would most likely intensify its Ukrainian proxy war against Russia by committing NATO ground forces to Ukraine, Belarus, Transnistria, Moldova, Serbia and elsewhere in Russia's near abroad. It would also intensify sabotage acts within Russia.
The escalation potential of all of that is incalculable. The risk of global nuclear annihilation would sharply increase.
The most effective short term way to retaliate for U.S. involvement is likely to personally harm U.S. warmongers, like the Kagan Nuland duo or Congress hawks like Adams and Kinzinger. These folks are cowards when it comes to their life. Put THEIR skin into the game and things will change. Russia does not have the capabilities to do such but there are people for hire who do.
The Russian president Vladimir Putin is a very mindful man. I am sure that he and his team have thought through potential counter measures and decided to activate those that will harm the U.S. in the longer term. Their plan is to convince the deep state in the U.S., especially the rich people who own Biden, as well as the Pentagon and the CIA, that continuing the war will, over time, be more harmful to their aims than to Russia's.
Posted by b on May 2, 2022 at 7:59 UTC | Permalink
next page »There is an interesting idea floating around. Maybe Russia want US and NATO to escalate.
Not to nuclear threshold, of course, but maybe Russia is not interrupting it's enemy while it is making a mistake.
Wast majority of Russian ground forces are on stand by, not engaged in Ukraine. I don't know where are all the subs (navy), if they are still at sea (as they all sailed out mid february) this is strong indication what will happen. Military details aside, Russia (+ China) have enormous economic and asymmetrical leverage over west.
Not only Putin is judo master, whole Russian HQ are masters too. Interesting times ahead.
Posted by: Abe | May 2 2022 8:41 utc | 2
You mean start offing the US Ruling Class Elites (and Political Elites) who are behind the war in Ukraine? I think that's brilliant. You have to do it with plausible deniability though. Maybe some Super Yachts can spontaneously combust in the Caribbean or some Leer Jets might lose their bearings and run smack into the Alps. I agree with you that Russia is doing the right thing not striking NATO on NATO's own soil or sinking a US carrier or something like that. I think the psycho Neocons want just that to give them carte blanche to fight the Russians however and wherever they see fit. However if some Neocons start dropping dead after eating Sushi or a Reuben Sandwich or their limo takes a dive off the Pacific Palisades and this happens enough then I think they'll get the message. The Billionaires supporting this war. Scare the hell out of them. Take out some big names in some very coincidental accidents and let them connect the dots.
Posted by: JEinCA | May 2 2022 8:43 utc | 3
The US has bases in far flung locations, many of which feature a local population less than enamoured with their presence. There is planty of scope for advanced weaponry to surface in places and groups seemingly unrelated to the Ukraine conflict, where the use of which would leave an unmistakeable message to certain countries about how easy it would be for their interests in those certain places to be rendered no longer viable. One crashed plane, one weird shipping accident, one destroyed base, enough US casualties, the message might sink in. If it doesn't then the scope is there to escalate until it does. A large number of groups in the areas they occupy would more than happy to help.
Posted by: tspoon | May 2 2022 8:47 utc | 4
... The most effective short term way to retaliate for U.S. involvement is likely to personally harm U.S. warmongers ...
I’m surprised you’d advocate something like this. The people you name are only pawns of one sort or another, they are eminently expendable, as you surely know.
Certainly the situation is frustrating but reinforcing the Killer Putin narrative is unlikely to be productive, even if strategically relevant targets were identified.
Non-destructive disabling of NATO satellites with blinding lasers and radio jamming is surely a possibility, as is straight blowing them to bits. NATO surveillance aircraft might be vulnerable to non-nuke / non-material attack of a sort not yet demonstrated (EMP or laser, assuming deployable exist).
Or some diabolical might yet emerge from Azovstal - Macron is clearly animated by this possibility - something that opens a productive front against pre-SMO fairytales of a Plucky Ukraine and Defensive NATO.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 2 2022 8:47 utc | 5
U.s.A and Britain , a s the two major protagonists in all the wars for the last few centuries have been applying the very same tactics of plundering , dividing nations, double/tripple standards etc. etc . There is no reason to give up on their modus operandi now with Russia . Why would they do that when it has worked so well for centuries ?
Russians genetic disdvantage is they don't have that traits in their history , attitude and national character . Since time immemorial the jugnle laws has been always prevailing . As simple as that . Whoever thinks that collective West is delusional, ridiculous or not so clever , make a terrible mistake
Posted by: tony | May 2 2022 8:49 utc | 6
Agreed Mr b,
Sinking naval behemoths is not the rational thing.
Nor is expecting a ‘limited nuclear war’.
It’s like a limited pregnancy! Nonsense.
Just think about the amount of environmental damage to an already highly polluted seas of the world! The total disaster of ocean life extinction and its source of food for billions!
It is bad enough with the ammunition’s and diesel being expended in Ukraine and upon its fertile soils which will yield poisons in what it grows for generations.
The power levers may be in Washington but these who hold the strings of these in Washington are elsewhere, in their Estates and City blocks and Private Islands and SUPERYACHTS! Travelling in their private jets and helicopters between these palaces.
Yup a few fuuuc-Kinzhells taking out such peoples sanctums would not be seen by the ‘public at large’ or even publicised by these grand wizards for a further escalation and a guaranteed wiping out of their bloodlines - which is what they care about above all else. Planes crash, ships sink, even park lane towers may suffer raging infernos...
A grand estate in the US , a yacht in the Caribbean or tropical island a few heads chopped off - should be enough and fairly bloodless compared to what goes on daily in Yemen or weekly in the Palestine...
I am in no way calling for it to happen but a great mafiosi type of night of the long knives fantasy surely appeals - for the greater good of humanity and life on Earth.
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 2 2022 8:54 utc | 7
Two year lurker, first time poster:
I have to start out with a BIG THANK YOU to B and a lot of the regular commentators for the insightful writing and the stimulating discussions. I am a somewhat disillusioned mid-twenty y.o. german living in a big city, since 2015 I have been feeling like I live in a dream; the media, politics, my professors and especially my fellow students, even some of my friends and family seem to me as to be high on some good stuff. There is no real sense of how thin the veil of civilisation around us is (I wonder how quickly live degenerates when the electricity is not working anymore for a few days).
But at least I can come here and read some SENSE, but most importantly not feel so alone in my thoughts.
So thank you all. Keep it up.
So as I am not as smart or well read as most people here, I'll leave it at that.
Wish everyone the best and stay alert for the times to come.
Posted by: £$€ | May 2 2022 8:56 utc | 8
I agree with b. Russia needs to look to the long term. Sure, react strongly where there is provocation, but reaching for quick total victory plays into US hands. This engagement is about long term attrition.
Posted by: aniteleya | May 2 2022 9:05 utc | 9
"The sinking of a U.S. carrier would be propagandized by U.S. and 'western' media as another 9/11 moment"... it depends from where that hypotetical us carrier is located. if the carrier is running a military operation near russian borders its a different thing that 2 skyscrapres in new york. the idea of killing victoria nuland is one of the dumbest strategies i read in this month
Posted by: giandavide | May 2 2022 9:07 utc | 10
All talk of Russia directly retaliating against the West is insane. That is simply asking for the end of the human race. Russia almost certainly has the ability to take out Zelensky, a move that would cause tremendous difficulties and create fear in the Ukraine leadership. Just in case there are adequate personnel and resources in Ukraine to continue the foolishness, Russia should by now be assembling a very large 'armada' of inexpensive drones to make it impossible to effectively transport the various gift weapons in Ukraine.
People must understand that total doom is now becoming as likely as it was during the Cuban missile crisis.
Posted by: blues | May 2 2022 9:25 utc | 11
Was RAF Welford a demonstration strike? A trial run?
The cover story stinks, eyewitness reports are not consistent with the official story of a fireworks warehouse fire in Wellbrook on the far side of the M4 motorway from Welford.
If it was a Kinzhal strike, it could have been launched from anywhere on an arc from Rostov to the Greenland coast West of Spitzbergen.
Given its speed and energy, it is likely that every component of the missile would be vaporised on impact leaving no physical evidence for forensic examination.
At hypersonic speede, cocooned in a plasma sheath that absorbs radar signals, Kinzhals cannot be detected by radar except during its final terminal phase.
If there is no physical or electronic evidence for forensic examination, a Kinzhal strike would be plausibly deniable.
If we see a few more incidents like Welford affecting important but not high profile military infrastructure facilities, we can reasonably conclude a message is being communicated.
Posted by: Ltexpat | May 2 2022 9:34 utc | 12
(reply to previous thread).
@Laurence "Tim - Bugger off to your Covidiot hidey-hole."
A common reaction :-) However it is a fact that in the first wave most UK deaths were from actually from Midazolam as the immediate cause of death. The UK got through several years supply of this end-of-life-easing drug in two months and there is an ongoing court case. From what we know now most of these people would have survived with proper basic treatment. An honest mistake? Possibly. But this is a relevant observation in the context of the WEF agenda to dispose of "useless eaters", which is in turn relevant to Hudson's observation that collapse and food shortages are a deliberate response to the Ukraine war, and are a feature not a bug.
Posted by: Tim | May 2 2022 9:37 utc | 13
"But why should it be? If, indeed, this battle, this slaughter and stress is life, why have we this craving for pleasure and beauty? If there is no refuge, if there is no place of peace, and if all our dreams of quiet places are a folly and a snare, why have we such dreams? Surely it was no ignoble cravings, no base intentions, had brought us to this; it was Love had isolated us. Love had come to me with her eyes and robed in her beauty, more glorious than all else in life, in the very shape and colour of life, and summoned me away. I had silenced all the voices, I had answered all the questions--I had come to her. And suddenly there was nothing but War and Death!"
I had an inspiration. " After all," I said, "it could have been only a dream."
Well, who better to recount a dream of the future than H.G. Wells?
Posted by: john | May 2 2022 9:42 utc | 14
If Nato (USA) attacks Transnistria which is a huge escalation, a sinking of a carrier would probably be justified and an important way to counter it. It should be announced that Nato expanded the war first.
But really, Ukraine is all that matters now. If their forces get destroyed, the threat to Transnistria will gradually go away, too.
Posted by: unimperator | May 2 2022 9:48 utc | 15
If Nato (USA) attacks Transnistria which is a huge escalation, a sinking of a carrier would probably be justified and an important way to counter it. It should be announced that Nato expanded the war first.
But really, Ukraine is all that matters now. If their forces get destroyed, the threat to Transnistria will gradually go away, too.
Posted by: unimperator | May 2 2022 9:48 utc | 16
Why sink carriers when you can send them to port for repair with small holes, scrapes, etc., from plausibly denied accidents? Do that three times and you have effectively halved US global power projection with far less risk of escalation. Play stealthy and dirty just as the Empire is.
Posted by: Plausible Deniabilit | May 2 2022 9:49 utc | 17
Bernard: "The most effective short term way to retaliate for U.S. involvement is likely to personally harm U.S. warmongers, like the Kagan Nuland duo or Congress hawks like Adams and Kinzinger. These folks are cowards when it comes to their life. Put THEIR skin into the game and things will change. Russia does not have the capabilities to do such but there are people for hire who do."
As long as they do a very well targeted version of Operation Phoenix, and like in Phoenix, no one dies, just "neutralized with extreme prejudice."
My hopes is that someone takes care of John M. "Jack Off" Keane, mafia style.
Speaking of Operation Phoenix, looks like the radicals are determined to do to the U.$. what they did to Vietnam about 50 years ago -- and all I did was try to see if I spelled Phoenix right.
Posted by: William Haught | May 2 2022 9:54 utc | 18
@£$€ | May 2 2022 8:56 utc | 8
Sharing your feeling, dude. An island of sanity where we can breathe of relief.
I wish you to find people around you to have normal conversations not polluted by the current mad circus.
Posted by: Francil | May 2 2022 9:54 utc | 19
..and George Murdoch and Rupert Murdoch, at least the former with something along the lines of a golf club wrapped with razor wire.
Posted by: William Haught | May 2 2022 9:56 utc | 20
The world is dividing into two hostile and mutually exclusive camps just as we had during the Cold War. That does not bode well for Europe or the rest of the World.
Posted by: Malchik Ralf | May 2 2022 9:29 utc | 15
No. Not the world is dividing. We are dividing the world by offering it the choice to stand with us - or against us. No third choice. The EU (or, as EU chooses to think of itself: "Europe") is slowly realizing that most of the world does not want to stand with it.
Posted by: Martina | May 2 2022 10:01 utc | 21
Thanks for the comments on "Why Shouldn't Russia Threaten US Carriers?"
B's objections are not unreasonable. On the other hand, personal
attacks would just fuel the "Putin Killer" narrative, as someone said.
For the same reason, covert actions and "accidents" would just stir more western hysteria.
Keep in mind that Russia is already accused of many things it did not do.
Maybe rather than solutions, one should better identifiy the problem:
1. Who actually rules the Empire? The country wasn't governed by Trump,
even less by the demented Biden. Harris, Blinken, Nuland, Austin, Burns, Miley?
With whom should the Russians even talk?
Or are all these people an irresponsible gang, each of them washing their hands
of responsibility? Maybe informed people have more suggestions here.
2. How can the US be forced to put skin in the game, besides European economy
(the collapse of which is to their advantage) and blood of Ukrainian soldiers?
Military threats must be an option.
I am afraid without skin in the game, there will be no incentive for peace.
Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | May 2 2022 10:06 utc | 22
An 'accident' on board an ocean going American LNG tanker mid-Atlantic resulting in a catastrophic series of explosions and loss of all crew and material would be karma though
Posted by: steve brown | May 2 2022 10:21 utc | 23
It seems to me that the US would not appreciate a loss of access to data. Supposedly data is the new oil, so EMP wall street, Langley etc. and cut the undersea cables as well as blinding or taking out a few satellites - that only needs, say, an old Chinese satellite to suddenly 'lose control' and start an unfortunately destructive chain-reaction, just like Musk poked China recently.
Posted by: NotEinstein | May 2 2022 10:24 utc | 24
Desperate stuff, B.
Rather than lashing out directly at the US, Russia should be focused on defeating their Ukrainian proxy or at least trying to reach a point of "victory" of sorts.
If this was turning out to be anything other than a disaster for Russia, the suggestion of sinking US ships or activating international hit squads certainly would not be thrown around by typically smart and considered analysts.
The Russians need to decide if they are at war and act accordingly, however ruthless this could become, or sue for peace. Since Lavrov is now making calls to tie sanction relief to peace talks, I suspect it's the latter.
Posted by: Pat Bateman | May 2 2022 10:26 utc | 25
A most interesting revelation
The lyrics from the song "the Russians" BY STING sums it all up.
"There is no historical precedent to put
The words in the mouth of the president
There's no such thing as a winnable war
It's a lie we don't believe anymore"
'In Europe and America there's a growing feeling of hysteria
Conditioned to respond to all the threats'
As for nuclear powered ICBM patrol submarines, the limiting endurance is the amount of food on board. Between sixty to ninety days maximum.
Then again, a former senior rank SBU officer did defect to Russia. Complete with an entire collection copied files. On a USB THUMB DRIVE .
As for loss of a warship. It is normal for a basic naval board of enquiry. Just basic Navy 101.
The Western media "Ministry of Truth", appears to suffering from a severe case of chronic "hyper-ventilation" !
Truth is stranger than fiction...............
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 2 2022 10:27 utc | 26
@RationalPeacekeeper | May 2 2022 10:06 utc | 26
"With whom should the Russians even talk?"
I think it's been said here many times, we have a big, huge issue here in Europe with our leaders.
I couldn't say about Scholz, but why would Putin waste a minute with Macron, the kind of Chef d'état who is capable to ask Renault to leave Russia (the country where the French car manufacturer makes his best business outside of France), the kind of so-called leader who wants to sell the most profitable national companies and assets.
Other side of the Atlantic we see the deplorable show of Biden's lunacy every two weeks with a new video. And our media pretend to see nothing, while the World giggles. Dystopia at its finest. I wonder if one day kids will learn in their schoolbooks about the delusion of the West.
Posted by: Francil | May 2 2022 10:32 utc | 27
Show takes quite a turn.
Lavrov crashes through a taboo or two.
interview to Italy
something like
"surely Ze can be a nazi. Wise Jewish nation says the worst antisemits come of Jews. Not sure if true, but some says even Hitler had a share of Jewish blood"
Well, there were rumors Lavrov has some share too, so maybe he has privilege to say it, but Israel already runs amok
Posted by: Arioch | May 2 2022 10:33 utc | 28
Russia should not sink the carriers but follow the carriers and actively scan them, and fly drones at them, and track them constantly, and relay real-time data to anyone who wants to sink them, and give anti-US countries and groups the guidance data and weapons systems to sink them. The US did virtually the same to Russia, giving Ukraine every bit of data and every weapon, so such a Russian response isn't an escalation, nor is a US carrier sinking an escalation if Russia merely guided the missile and gave the data. Assassinating US leaders is wrong, the US military should be destroyed so that the American people can know they are defeated and that their ideology led to a miserable grave.
Posted by: Clubofinfo | May 2 2022 10:39 utc | 29
@Reasonable Peacekeeper
Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia does not consider itself to be at war with NATO
Can you provide a link as to where he said that? I am astonished, if he did. But maybe he said something intended to be ambiguous. I would like to know his exact words.
High level US and NATO active duty officers are embedded in the Ukrainian army in Ukraine and are commanding forces that are killing Russians every day. How is it possible to view that as anything other than NATO combat against Russia? NATO officers embedded in Ukraine are ordering Azov animals to use civilians as human shields and to kill them if they try to escape.
NATO surveillance assets are transmitting vast volumes of targetting data to Ukraine forces, including exact targetting coordinates, enabling them to kill Russians they would not otherwise be able to kill. How is it possible to view that as anything other than NATO combat against Russia?
NATO command structures are so tightly integrated with the Ukraine armed forces that NATO can issue direct commands to Ukraine forces at the platoon level without even going through Ukraine military command headquarters. Furthermore, Russia has captured notebooks and communication equipment capable of receiving such communications on the battlefield, and even has records of actual commands issued by NATO and the names of those NATO officers issuing the commands. How is it possible to view that as anything other than NATO combat against Russia?
It is clear that the strategic planning for all the Ukrainian deep fortifications in the Donbass and for the all-out attack that had been planned for early April were developed by NATO not by Ukraine. If that is the case, how is it possible to view that as anything other than NATO combat against Russia?
Russia has many NATO POWs, who constitute a priori evidence of direct NATO participation in combat against Russia.
Given the huge volumes of military equipment and material supplied to Ukraine and the openly stated wish to use that material in Ukraine to kill Russians, it is virtually impossible to argue that this does not also constitute de jure NATO participation in combat.
Given the huge amount of training given by NATO to Ukraine over the last 8 years, the building of NATO military and naval bases, and the tight coordination between the provocation and escalation of this war, and clearly long term NATO planning for hybrid war attacks on Russia (sanctions, theft of reserves, false flags, etc), how is it possible to view that as anything other than NATO combat against Russia?
Russia knows all these things very well. To claim that Russia is not aware that NATO is in outright open warfare with her is like claiming that Sergei Lavrov is unaware of what he ate for breakfast this morning. If he is indeed claiming that Russia does not consider NATO to be in outright warfare with Russia, then it is for strategic reasons alone that he would say that. As I stated above I would like to see exactly what he in fact said, it may have some deliberate ambiguity.
Russia has clearly stated that if NATO do not comply with her demands in December 2021 to roll back NATO to 1997 status, Russia will make those changes herself. Therefore a large scale Russian destruction of NATO military assets is clearly potentially on the table, should it be required. Remember that Russia is only using 10% of her forces in Ukraine, and the rest are on standby. Her top technology is being held tightly to her chest - i.e. not being used in Ukraine - so that NATO can make no preparations for it before a potential all-out NATO-Russia battle. High precision stand-off weapons are being produced at full capacity in three shifts 24/7, and are being produced as fast as they are being used. All this shows that Russia is totally and exhaustively prepared for all-out war with NATO.
Yet in the case of all-out war, according to Russian operating principles, it should be Russia who exclusively holds escalation dominance, and when the escalation goes to all-out warfare it must be Russia who takes that step at that moment most strategically ideal for her, NOT as some ill-considered response to some NATO provocation (which of course is what NATO constantly strives for - that would be NATO escalation dominance).
If Russia admits that NATO is already in outright warfare with Russia, then that specifically necessitates direct Russian attacks on NATO in response - that in itself undermines Russian escalation dominance and restricts her ability to control the timing and extent of her response.
Therefore it makes perfect sense that Russia implies that NATO is not necessarily in outright combat at this stage, though I would expect such signals to be made ambiguously. In terms of information officially released by Russia, Russia has already effectively hinted multiple times and in multiple ways that NATO is in combat with Russia, simply through facts that Russia has exposed, yet Russia has largely remained quiet about her interpretation of such facts. In connection with this it is interesting about all the rumours that high level NATO officers were trapped in Azovstahl for weeks and weeks without any official confirmation from Russia, yet eventually Russia did confirm that officially, and at the same time confirmed that she already had many NATO POWs (and yet, still did not officially draw the obvious conclusion that NATO is in direct combat with Russia).
All of this is entirely consistent with Russia's aim to maintain tight control over escalation dominance. Even the recent limited confirmation that she holds NATO POWs is an example of the use of that information to exercise step by step escalation according to Russian strategic interests as the situation unfolds (i.e. it acts as a warning to NATO, a partial preview of some of the cards Russia holds to her chest).
Russia will not suddenly sink a US aircraft carrier (that is, unless that is a tiny part of sudden escalation to all-out warfare). Most certainly she will not start randomly murdering US war criminals (she would much prefer to put them on trial). Russia will not respond to provocations in the manner NATO wishes. Rather, Russia will strike hard and unexpectedly and at the perfect moment of her choice, when she considers that that is in Russia's best strategic interest to do so.
Posted by: BM | May 2 2022 10:42 utc | 30
At the very least, Russia should take out the NATO planners that recently has taken up squatting in Liev.
Russia knows exactly where they are, they track their comings and going individually --- they know when they congregate, and when (and where) they disperse for the day.
One Iskander would take them out ---- an object lesson must be made that NOWHERE in uKRAPistan is beyond their reach.
Posted by: Karl | May 2 2022 10:45 utc | 31
I agree with b on this.
The crisis is escalating towards world war as it is. The sinking of a US carrier would not put a brake on that. The leaders in all capitals must grasp the stark reality: the current trajectory is leading towards nuclear Armageddon. They are prisoners of the syllogism: every empire eventually meets the war it most fears and wants to avoid – its own collapse. Everyone wants to avoid nuclear annihilation. The conclusion is clear, unless they can see the light and step back from the dark logic of power.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
Posted by: peter mcloughlin | May 2 2022 10:50 utc | 32
At the very least, Russia should take out the NATO planners that recently has taken up squatting in Liev.
Yes, except that the intelligence they are intercepting from those NATO planners is probably worth more than taking them out. "Taking them out" would be the US knee-jerk response, which they would be incapable of resisting taking. The Russians think strategically.
Posted by: BM | May 2 2022 10:51 utc | 33
If russia wants to win this fight.
It has only 1 choice. Prepare to go to war with nato, and tell then you do.
Be as blunt as you can be. Use the pending nato membership for Finland and Sweden as reason.
Put a few million soldiers on the borders with Finland the baltic states and Poland.
And tell europe you have enough of them. And that as soon those 2 are in nato, you will summon the nato representative to the Kremlin to hand out a declaration of war.
Nato is not ready for war. It hasn't the manpower, not the munitions and weapons, not the popular support to cause war with russia.
That is russia its only way out.
Ignore the usa or its army. Fully focus on europe. And make clear that it is going to be war if they go on. And really, do it as blunt as you can, and as openly.
A few million soldiers at the border would force European countries to the draft. And they can't, really, they can't. All the weapons for that they did sent to the Ukraine.
Posted by: Bas vos | May 2 2022 10:51 utc | 34
The US is the muscle of the British Empire.
Yes yes I know the British Empire went extinct after WW2.
More fairytales.
The brains is what needs a wack.
The British.
Posted by: Nick | May 2 2022 10:53 utc | 35
I'm not optimistic. There is nothing you can do, the neocons are absolutely crazy. Start assassinating them? Please, they push even harder to blow Russia up. At the end of the day the US doesn't take Russia's nuclear deterrent seriously.
And after all the Russiagate hysteria, 'losing' to Russia is seen as existential issue to the Biden admin and US media. My point is, buy some iodine tablets.
The US strategy is based on the idea that everyone else is reasonable and responsible and thus we'll be allowed to be crazy without consequence.
Posted by: Altai | May 2 2022 10:59 utc | 36
Today is May 2nd. 8 years ago, Ukrainian Russian speakers were burned alive in the trade union building in Odessa, where they found refuge from right-wing Ukrainians chasing them down for simply being pro Russian and anti-Maidan.
I as a German have no connection to Ukraine or Russia beside the fact that my grandfathers was 40 Km away from Moscow in December 1941 in Zvenigorod. This event turned everything upside down for me. The Ukrainian perpetrators streamed their evil deeds to a worldwide audience. I got the link to the stream from the now defunct forum militaryphotos.net. I saw them throwing fire bombs at the building and shooting at ppl in the building or at the roof. I saw how girls prepared the fire bombs.
Until this event, I lived in the German MSM bubble, trusted everything they told me. When I then compared how Golineh Atai, the ARD correspondent for Russia and Ukraine, dismissed the event with "unclear", "building burned down", "ppl came to death" or "both sides", I started questioning what info she was feeding me. This was a key turning point in my life. I realized that I was lied to, the created narrative didnt match what I just saw.
I personally hold Golineh Atai responsible that she murdered the victims a second time by denying them their humanity. She was an evil person, ultimately working for the US to expand their influence up to the Russian-Ukrainian border. Her job was to sell the expansion of influence and power to the German public and when counter-narratives arose to suppress them. I hope that life will get back to her, that she has to face the consequences of her evil deeds at some point in her life.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | May 2 2022 11:01 utc | 37
2. How can the US be forced to put skin in the game
Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | May 2 2022 10:06 utc | 26
The US already has active duty officers trapped in the Donbass and as Russian POWs. What is that if it is not skin in the game? That is precisely why the US/UK are in such hysterical panic - they have already (irreversibly) committed skin to the game, and have - belatedly, but too late - realised that they are up against a foe immensely more powerful and deadly than they are. They are hysterical because they cannot take their skin out of the game.
Posted by: BM | May 2 2022 11:03 utc | 38
How does b feel about sinking an EU warship, though? ..With a little plausible denial thrown in for good measure? e.g. "Oh dear, it appears to have struck a loose mine".
This might encourage the vassals to think a bit harder about the consequences of lining their pockets with dollar bribes while selling out their citizens for US neocon hubris.
Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | May 2 2022 11:13 utc | 39
Yeah, no. B is right that sinking a carrier is way too big. It was announced today that mercenaries will be tried as such in the DPR with the death penalty as punishment. There’s firm legal grounds for that. Public trials for NATO personnel captured is a good escalation.
For the time being, destroying NATO equipment in Ukraine is enough. But local attacks on US bases via proxy war globally is certainly on the table. No knock out punch is necessary when death by a thousand cuts is available. The US’s great weakness is how thinly it is spread. Personally, I’d start shooting down drones over Afghanistan.
I still think Russia’s banking on patience. Especially on the economic front. And keep in mind that a financial contagion in the west is unlikely to affect Russia much since the west isolated Russia already. Maybe the string of food processing facility fires is actually a Russian op? If you’re russia, the goal is to destabilize the west internally. Sinking carriers is the sort of thing that could unite the US. Same as continuing to supply gas; you let europe cut its own throat so the blame is internal.
Posted by: Lex | May 2 2022 11:14 utc | 40
Actually I believe an indirect message can be sent by damaging US outriders such as Israel or UK. Simply destroying Israeli air superiority by installing air defence in Lebanon to eradicate Israeli jets launching missiles at Syria by saying having Hezbollah trained on S-300.
Or UK suffering a submarine malfunction on a SSN or even a loss.
Something that impacts US "technology" but not US personnel as a first-strike.
By now Russia must have decrypted the codes used to direct Reaper drones and the secure comms of Harris radio units used by NATO to be able to deflect and redirect mission strikes
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 2 2022 11:21 utc | 41
agree Lex
Stupid and dangerous to sink a carrier. Sure a loose mine might take out a ship and there may be some fires at US facilities but always plausible deniability.
We need to wait to see what comes out of Mariupol. Also what Germany does when the gas and oil stop flowing.
Posted by: watcher | May 2 2022 11:25 utc | 42
How does b feel about sinking an EU warship
EU as such possesses NO warships - nor indeed ANY ships much as UN or USMCA or OAS has no ships.
So take your pick which ships - Danish, Dutch, French, German, British, Italian, Spanish, Greek, Polish, Irish, Portuguese, Cypriot,
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 2 2022 11:26 utc | 43
Macro hypothesis: The Nazi International and their masters are already preparing for the consequences of WW3 with the resultant Yugoslavianization of the US into multiple secessionist nations and the decimation of western Europe by Russia and Russia by the US’s Rods of God as the leaders escape to their Global south hideaways for the benefit of Wall Street/Black Rock, etc. and the Military, Industrial, Congressional, Pharmaceutical complex who are and will live in their non-targeted areas of the US - while those in the unfortunate Balkanized areas will suffer slow, relentless, sequential, false flag 911 destruction and genocide like the people of Ukraine.
Posted by: Frank Marr | May 2 2022 11:34 utc | 44
Turning of the gas for Germany is a nuklear option – for german economy.
It will increase the pain, that has to be increased dramatically.
Posted by: njet | May 2 2022 11:36 utc | 45
The rumors are that Ukraine is being prepared to become the next Jewish State. It makes sense for several reasons, including:
1. Situation in occupied Palestine is becoming unsustainable.
1. Occupied Palestine is running out of water.
2. NATO, at war with Russia, is ran by the US government; while, the US government is ran by Israel.
Posted by: blues | May 2 2022 9:25 utc | 14
Indeed, the fact the twerp Zelensky is still around shores up "never interfere with the enemy while they're making mistakes."
Posted by: ERing46Z | May 2 2022 11:41 utc | 47
Let’s be careful here. The US did not attack Russia and Russia did not attack the US. that is the premise to follow. In every conflict so far since WWII both have avoided direct contact. Even in Cuba there was a lot noise, but at the end we continue to live.
Also, taking out the fungus like Nuland and others is pitiful. There are more who may even be worse, at least those can be calculated.
Putin, I’m certain has thought about how far the US will be willing to go and is working around these limits. His warnings as to Russia will take appropriate measures if the US doesn’t stop arming the Ukraine may have some answers. Russia has a lot of options still. One thing about the US, it is spread out all over the world. Starting up conflicts in several of these areas can and would task the US to shift its attention. Syria is a prime example, also, Iran and Iraq. The gulf oil is easy to threaten which would really get some attention. Venezuela is a prime area that would also scare some people. The special operation in Ukraine is just that, no need to blow up the whole world for this objective.
Russians are excellent chess masters, so, I would watch for some distraction in another side of this board. Soon.
Posted by: Brad | May 2 2022 11:43 utc | 48
German rightwing CDU/CSU has driven the coalition into a corner to deliver modern heavy artillery to help “defend” Ukraine.
On May 1st Olaf Scholz got pelted by eggs as he attempted to speak before a crowd with protestors. Their slogan was: “don’t provoke … but de-escalate”.
Pacifism has died in the Green Party impressed by Biden’s Blitzkrieg across Europe emboldened by years of lies, propaganda and promoting Russophobia.
Nancy Pelosi visited Kyiv complaining of bullying by Russia … from across the Atlantic we #StandByUkrsine and applaud your courage … until victory is won.
Germany’s Home Secretary Nancy Faeser: "It definitely makes sense to have an emergency supply at home"
The 599 nuclear bunkers wil be re-activated and stocked with emergency rations.
Germans in survival mode
All is well …
Posted by: £$€ | May 2 2022 8:56 utc | 8
Grüße an einen Leidesgenossen!
Posted by: vato | May 2 2022 11:47 utc | 50
The Ogliarchs or Deep State could care less about the lives of troops or about warships. But if for instance the Resistance struck directly at the Zionazis wallet by destroying POL assets, the Zionazis complete control of the media would easily portrey it to Americans as a refinery accident or some other human error. A look at the history of such accidents, primarily in oil producing states and the medias coverups of the disasters have led me to believe that the pushback from the resistance is quite active. Another example of devestating revenge completely covered up by MSM is the sad story of Jihad Mike.
Posted by: Ralph Conner | May 2 2022 11:47 utc | 51
The Neo-Cons will escalate indefinitely because they do not believe that Putin has what it takes to put the US In it’s place. He’s backed off so many times before (albeit he was playing a much longer game than the US biding his time for the right moment) they simply think he will do it again.
However, Putin has stated that there is nowhere else to retreat to. They gone back as far as they can and no further.
We’re getting to the point where we find out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
Posted by: Down South | May 2 2022 11:48 utc | 52
Tim | May 2 2022 9:37 utc | 17
An honest mistake? Possibly.
You mean Mr Hancock was talking about giving people a good death in a speech in the House of Commons and things then got out of hand?
Posted by: cirsium | May 2 2022 11:49 utc | 53
A sick post and a sick riposte from b.
It's actually, again, all about the Benjamins--no surprise that.
You'd think the 300 billion dollar theft would have turned on some lights. Respect life, make the warlords penniless and you will have won.
Posted by: Lawrence Magnuson | May 2 2022 11:49 utc | 54
The Russians are already in a conflict up to their knees, instead of sink a carrier (imo more likely in Taiwan) up the ante in Ukraine with a large mobilization of conscripts. Overun the USS Kiev. Stop equivitating, use your pop support, take the casualties and take proper victory. Through Odessa and on Westward. It will have to be done, better now than next year or next decade.
Posted by: intp1 | May 2 2022 11:50 utc | 55
Here is a chilling thought: the Narcissists ruling class in their well-provisioned fortresses with food, entertainment of every imaginable form including children to abuse, would not mind a nuclear war at all. They would be the undisputed feudal rulers of the surviving human race. What more could a narcissist want?
Posted by: Patient Observer | May 2 2022 11:51 utc | 56
b:
The most effective short term way to retaliate for U.S. involvement is likely to personally harm U.S. warmongers, like the Kagan Nuland duo or Congress hawks like Adams and Kinzinger. These folks are cowards when it comes to their life. Put THEIR skin into the game and things will change. Russia does not have the capabilities to do such but there are people for hire who do.
That would be a mistake, too. If Russia starts assassinating U.S. bureaucrats and politicians, then the U.S. will start assassinating Russian bureaucrats and politicians.
Russia’s de-Nazification of the Ukraine is the best retaliation for the U.S. 30-year (77-year) Nazification of it.
Posted by: S | May 2 2022 11:55 utc | 57
The most effective short term way to retaliate for U.S. involvement is likely to personally harm U.S. warmongers, like the Kagan Nuland duo or Congress hawks like Adams and Kinzinger. These folks are cowards when it comes to their life.
This will not work because what we are seeing is a clash of two very different systems (multipolar vs unipolar and all that that entails).
Killing a couple of expendable front men/women will not change anything except solidify public support behind the Administration.
It’s like the Neo-Cons thinking that by assassinating Putin Russia will fold and take its place as another Empire lackey.
Posted by: Down South | May 2 2022 11:56 utc | 58
What an odd post. Most who respond are names we’ve not seen before.
I’m certain I have said fifty things here that would be actionable in a very slightly evolved legal climate in US. I am old, most here are old. If they bother with coming for me so be it.
It is very notable that the entire public cast of characters standing as figureheads in US political life are idiots and fools. The very best among them might be regarded as actors, as Zelensky is an actor. Not actors on the stage of history, simply actors on a stage. Someone else is writing the script, we plebes only guess who that is. I like my guesses better than your guesses, we are all just guessing.
Take a look at any of the videos coming out of Paris. Street fighting. Macron (or rather his handlers) did that. That was what they wanted. That will be all of the West. Street fighting with les flics is not an American idiom, we will come up with something.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 2 2022 12:00 utc | 59
Today it is eight years since at least 42 people were burnt to death in the Trade Union building in Odessa. The fascists were shouting "Glory to Ukraine". Five years later Boris Johnson got a group of super-rich fascists to join him in a Glory to Ukraine chant.
https://johnplatinumgoss.com/2022/05/02/nazi-atrocities-at-odessa-8-years-on/
This is what western governments are supporting.
@Paul Greenwood.
Sigh. It's a given that 'EU' as I used it in this case is merely shorthand for the European US-vassal countries. It would also include the UK.
Rather than being pedantic about my lazy shorthand why not try and answer the question? (i.e. How does b feel about sinking an EU warship, though? ..With a little plausible denial thrown in for good measure? e.g. "Oh dear, it appears to have struck a loose mine".)
Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | May 2 2022 12:01 utc | 61
As I was saying above, this is about more than just individuals.
From IntelSlava
8 years ago, on May 2nd 2014, Ukrainian radicals murdered at least 42 people in Odessa for the crime of being Russian. They burned them alive. They had tacit approval from the government; no one was punished.From that day on, it was clear that war had become inevitable. The War in Donbass had barely started; after May 2nd, 1000s of volunteers from Odessa & Russia joined the Militias. Ukrainian social networks were full of “funny” videos of people jumping to their deaths to escape the fire.
Restaurants added "Vatnik shashlik" to their menus. Young girls poured the Molotov cocktails that lit the Trade Union House on fire; Ukrainian politicians joked about “the traditional May BBQ” for years; people who were involved in the massacre are now popular bloggers, pundits, advisors, military leaders.
Posted by: Down South | May 2 2022 12:03 utc | 62
O/T but important censorship.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/05/01/paypal-cancels-cn-account-may-seize-balance/
Posted by: jo6pac | May 2 2022 12:04 utc | 63
Both seem like crazy propositions. The sinking of a carrier is basically a declaration of war. And harming neocon leaders is dirty and would not do much as for every warmonger leader there are dozens waiting in the wings to replace them.
What Russia has to do is finish the task at hand. If they want to dial it up. They will have to dial the pain on Ukraine sadly. Level Kyev, annihilate all ukranian leaders including the comedian and the boxing puppets.
sadly only way I see this ending is by turning Ukraine into q burning smoking crater. If this doesnt happen, this will go on indefinitely and Russia will lose.
Posted by: Comandante | May 2 2022 12:04 utc | 64
Americans are armed to the teeth and it is they who need motivating to change their government but to do that you need control of the narrative. How do you do that?
Posted by: Stevelancs | May 2 2022 12:11 utc | 65
Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | May 2 2022 12:01 utc | 65
You be lazy - but Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, have no warships.
Germany has a handful that are serviceable.
I have no problem with whatever the Russian General Staff deems an appropriate response. If you read my reply you see I mentioned a British SSN - could be a French one. It has however to be a key first-tier ally of USA.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 2 2022 12:14 utc | 66
This is going to sound harsh, and I hope people are not offended, but instead of coming up will all kinds of recommendations on what Russia should be doing, the Europeans and the Anglospherians should maybe start working on recommendations on what they themselves should be doing. So far I’ve only seen one—one!—high-profile public anti-imperial political action in the EU:
German FM heckled during Ukraine speech (VIDEO) (RT, May 1, 2022)
Posted by: S | May 2 2022 12:18 utc | 67
From IntelSlava
The prosecutor's office of the DPR has filed charges against the British volunteers, for them seen as mercenaries.The maximum punishment they face is the death penalty.
Posted by: Down South | May 2 2022 12:20 utc | 68
Posted by: Comandante | May 2 2022 12:04 utc | 68
You are funny.
Afghanistan went on for 20 years and Taliban did NOT lose: USA did.
Vietnam went on for 20 years and North Vietnam did NOT lose: France did; USA did.
Not quite clear why you think Russia should "dial it up" as you put it.......have you a football game to watch or maybe an ADD problem ? I am sure Russians know how to fight war much better than you do.
Americans were equipping Adolf Hitler's Wehrmacht when USSR was attacked on 22 June 1941 - ITT owned 25% Focke-Wulf - Prescott Bush was best buddies with Fritz Thyssen the steel baron - John Foster Dulles and Allen Dulles had core clients for Sullivan & Cromwell at the heart of the Reich. They believed in the program and saved them postwar.
Do not ever think an American dictates Russian policy - everyone on this planet knows the USA stands - and stood - full-square behind the Nazis.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 2 2022 12:20 utc | 69
I personally hold Golineh Atai responsible that she murdered the victims a second time by denying them their humanity. She was an evil person ...
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | May 2 2022 11:01 utc | 41
I share your sense of the culpability of media collaborators.
They are the vicious compradores of late-empire fascism, the enthusiastic snitches and capos of WestWorld’s Bullshit Archipelago.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 2 2022 12:20 utc | 70
I agree with b's objections.
However, the sinking of a US nuclear sub somewhere would have very different consequences: it would be extremely difficult to pin on Russia nor would it be a vast spectacle with orbital satellite photos of missiles arriving to destroy it. The US may well pretend it was crew error or an onboard mishap, yet the point made by Russia would be self-evident to the US Navy: if this continues to escalate, we target the subs first--and we can sink them reliably with weapons against which you are defenseless.
Remember those torpedo-missiles the Russians debuted a few years ago? Those things can travel across the Atlantic (maybe even the Pacific) and may be nuclear armed. Russia knows where at least 80% of the US sub fleet is at any given moment while the only means of hiding the remaining 20% is for them to shelter-in-place, which cannot be maintained indefinitely. Also, the sub fleet makes up a considerable portion of the US' nuclear arsenal, so eliminating that first makes perfect sense from a strategic view.
If Russia has the capability to pick off US subs at will, then the US is in a dire situation indeed, militarily, since its surface fleet is essentially just a turkey shoot for Russia's current missile arsenal.
I can't remember where I read/heard somewhere that one US military analyst suspected that the Moskva was picked off by French missiles fired by French personnel (perhaps directed from the Azovstal base). That's pure speculation, of course, but his greater point is that NATO operators would never allow Ukrainians to operate those weapon systems and it would likely have required at least two high-quality NATO anti-ship missiles to have damaged the Moskva so severely. His speculation was that the French personnel caught in the Azovstal base were the ones responsible for targeting and oversight.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 2 2022 12:23 utc | 71
German rightwing CDU/CSU has driven the coalition into a corner to deliver modern heavy artillery to help “defend” Ukraine.
Friedrich Merz is owned by Black Rock.
CDU cannot get elected in any Land election.
Germany is headed for breakup.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 2 2022 12:24 utc | 72
I don't understand why Russia doesn't use non-violent means to their fullest. In particular, cutting off oil and gas to Europe. I realize that will create a fair amount of suffering and probably a lot of economic damage, though much worse for Europe than for Russia.
The best wars are short wars. If Russia can make Europe bend the knee quickly, a lesser scenario of food disruptions will occur. I understand that many people view Europe as just vassals of the US, but real hardships would demonstrate the truth or falsity of that hypothesis. As Steve Bannon likes to say, "courage is contagious", and I believe that European countries that find their spine, the first, can inspire their more cowardly allies.
I've no special knowledge or insight, but I think that if Europe were cut off, the West might try and interdict shipments of fuel and fertilizer to the rest of the world. That's a strong disincentive for Russia, especially since armed convoys would involve the same sort of potential for armed conflict that Russia will hopefully avoid.
However, I don't think the West will be able to propagandize it's way out of world wide starvation that such an interdiction would result in.
Russia has been reluctant to even deal with Ukrainian elites so far. Numerous warnings about hitting 'decision making centres' have not been put into effect, despite almost daily attacks on Russia now. One suspects Russians elites are just as concerned about their own skin, since that could open a tit for tat downward spiral of symmetrical retaliation.
An attack on Nato warmongers would even more likely be met with a similar attack on a Russian lawmaker or oligarch. There is also the risk of a Franz Ferdinand scenario: WW3 started by the brutal murder of the pious Victoria Nuland, donator of cookies and selfless promoter of woke democratic Western ideals... bigger lies were sold for far less before.
It is much more convenient to put the lives of soldiers and civilians on the line, notwithstanding the ineffectiveness of deterrence thus far.
Despite the logic of B's argument, it is likely Russian leaders are not that different from those leading the West when it comes to their priorities.
Posted by: Et Tu | May 2 2022 12:43 utc | 74
Black Sea, two Russian ships hit in a drone attack: the video released from Kiev
Posted by: anon2020 | May 2 2022 12:57 utc | 75
Thanks b and to all others here for very interesting discourse.
Any thoughts on a long war in the Ukraine actually being In Russia’s favor? The West is pouring money it does not have into the conflict which Russia is systematically torching. In return the West gets radicalized refugees, soaring inflation, and de-dollarization of the global economy. And enough people in the West might just start waking up as the stream of lies become unsustainable.
The West could be like a hemophilia patient trying to harm Russia by bleed all over it.
Posted by: Moses22 | May 2 2022 12:57 utc | 76
I live a relatively short distance from Los Alamos, N.M. I had a relative work on improving nuclear weapons. I have dear friends who have utterly embraced the MSM narrative. The use of nuclear weapons has always had a logical internal consistency that for some, provides a certain vindictive comfort. However, it has at it's core, a premise that is stark raving mad. The current narratives have deliberately shifted the framing of their use as a reasonable and justifiable response to a fabricated, yet strangely seductive alternative to mutual respect, community, and a collective effort to address the approaching flock of “black swans” of overshoot.
My relative worked on some widget that allowed him to compartmentalize any cognitive dissonance over his complicity on improving a technology that would kill millions of innocents and thus imperfectly, absolve himself. Except, he could hate. Americans can really hate. They hate who they are told to hate. A direct strike against the U.S. would cement resolve. Disparate elements of virulent, self righteous, self-entitled, hating Americans would find a perfect and satisfying target for their hate. They’d patriotically celebrate it, bemoaning the terrible persecution visited upon them(sarc).
A financial collapse might do the trick and the continued success and progress of both Russia and China might might might be enough to turn the reservoir of American hate inward toward the venal, perverse, corrupt, “leadership” we’ve had for years now. But then again….
I have a sick feeling of inevitability as various friends talk self righteously about a course of action that would incinerate all they love.
Posted by: Andaréapié | May 2 2022 12:57 utc | 77
I disagree with nearly everyone, as sinking a carrier or assassination would enable the US to play the "victims" and thus be able to justify an expansion of the war more easily. This would pass the "initiative" for further action to the US as they would then have a "justification".
Rather than suggesting what the Russians should do, which is let US society fall to pieces on it's own, and the EU/UK learn what it costs them to let incompetent people take command, think of how they are using the situation in Avostal.
***
First a bit of relevant SciFi storyline; about an entire village in the middle ages, which got control of a ship from an star-spanning empire, who didn't know how to fight except "peer" opponents. Using Medieval tactics in battles between technology and middle age's methods.
*
The "Weskers" (Empire) found thenselves besieged in an impenetrable fortress with an impenetrable metallic roof. The English force, rounded up ALL the Wesker prisoners they could find from the surrounding farms and towns etc., took them to the fortress - and let them go. They all headed for safey in the fortress, who gladly let them in.
The Weskers surrendered very soon afterwards. WHY? Answer = FOOD. The number of new arrivals reduced the available food for the defenders.
Now, Avrostal, the "inhabitants" are trying to reduce the number of mouths to feed by letting "civilians" out (Where usually they shot "deserters" in the back). They are even suggesting that the wounded should also be evacuated (They know that the Russian will NOT shoot wounded prisoners as this would be a direct war-crime).
*
However, the active defenders are not yet thinking of surrendering - if they are now trying to lengthen the time they can resist.
*
(Good story too. The writer had done his homework. (Astounding Science Fiction, or from Analog, but I have forgotten the title of the original.)
**
So Putin's tactic of starving the Azov and Uke forces out, just needs time. They could be really cruel and broadcast cooking recipies to the Azov's day and night.
***
I still think that Avostal was designed to be much more than a simple advanced command post. IF the original NATO/Uke plan to surround DPR and LPR and separate Crimea had gone ahead, this would have left the entire Southern Command area of Russia without any natural defence. The countryside is FLAT, with few or no useful natural defensive features between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.
Avostal would also be in a line along the coast from Odessa to ....Mariupol and possibly Rostov. As a major command centre it must also still have serious communication systems, probably direct by satellite (to US and NATO). Plus the "scientists" in the Metabio lab.
****
A worthy "Baddies for (James) Bond" base. Although the sequel is taking a bit more time than Hollywood would want, the suspense is making up for that.
Posted by: Stonebird | May 2 2022 12:58 utc | 78
There will be no attacks on US carriers. These TARGETS can not be hit as they're representative of the power over the non critical thinkers. Please understand that all governments and the heads of rich families worldwide are in on the "production" of the war script. In a short time, there will be no comments section to debate stories such as this. The human race needs some chlorine for its gene pool!
Posted by: OhhhhReally | May 2 2022 13:00 utc | 79
I dunno that I am qualified to give Russia advice but I'll observe that the dunderheads of DC, those princesses of the Potomac, [let's face it empowered women/gays/poc's have been just as predisposed to use violence as white men...surprise huh/], are already doing their level best to turn Ukraine into a wider war. Their "master plan" can not fail...why...well, the egos of DC's "great minds" are very delicate things, better WW III than an honest admission of fallibility.
That was what the thunder was all about with Trump, how dare a mere mortal suggest that the Deities of DC were anything less than omnipresent beings. Ever since 22 November 1963 say no more.
I think the best thing the Ruskies can do is to continue as they have, finish the fight, as victor divide the country as it sees fit, give Poland a portion, give Hungary a portion and if the hyenas of Romania open a 2nd front...take some of their ill-gotten gains [see aftermath of WW I] and feed Hungary their carcass. Leave western Ukraine a small shattered place, full of spent munitions and an even more spent toxic ideology.
Posted by: S Brennan | May 2 2022 13:05 utc | 81
Lash out at US warships at random? What's the point except escalation for escalation's sake. But you don't have to indulge them either, as has been the rule up to now. Russia has had plenty of opportunities to say "enough", like when Western warships engaged in missile strikes against Russia's Syrian treaty ally, and when that British ship violated Crimea's territorial waters. Up to now they've always got a pass. Not that anybody should care, but most satisfactory for me would be to act against Western piracy. Some US destroyer seizes a Venezuelan civilian ship, and an unseen force sends a couple torpedoes their way. Seems only fair?
I don't know if it's just a rumor bouncing around in an echo chamber, but one keeps hearing about a command center in Lvov from where US officers are pretty much running the Ukie war effort. One assumes that Russian intel knows either way. Could it be that the whole gig is run out of the new US embassy there? Can't think of a more logical place. Might be a bridge too far to hit it, even though I'm sure the Chinese would smile at seeing some payback.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | May 2 2022 13:10 utc | 82
I think the general Russian strategy is to keep war fervor as low as possible among the public of all sides involved, including the Ukrainian public and on the domestic front. That means escalating the conflict only when strictly necessary, retaining the escalation dominance throughout the campaign and remaining open to negotiations and cease-fires throughout.
With this in mind, I don't believe actions that risk pulling the West into a direct confrontation would be conductive to this type of strategy. Even though Western involvement in the Ukrainian theater is pronounced and many experts expect it to expand even further, the lack of "skin in the game" imposes its own limitations on attempts to meaningfully escalate the conflict.
Ukraine remains pivotal to any effort of expanding the theater of operations, its soldiers willingness to wage war determines the scope of weapons supplies and, ultimately, the perception of its victories and defeats influences the manufactured narrative. If Romania and Poland can be goaded into throwing their hats in the ring, they too will be hung out to dry in the same way. I don't see any appetite for a grand coalition to enter into a losing war over a foreign plot of land, particularly among those whose lives would be on the line.
It's fair to question the effectiveness of this approach, but I believe it's likely to be effective in the long term if the conflict can be contained in Eastern Europe. There are already signs of war weariness in European states that aren't involved beyond supplies and rhetoric and the US looks like it's having to balance between pushing sacrificial lambs into the grinder without itself being pulled into it.
Posted by: Skiffer | May 2 2022 13:11 utc | 83
"Well, hello, that's me again" (to quote Martyanov), and "I am on record for many years" (Martyanov again) as an advocate for what we anarchists call "direct action". Which boils down to two things: 1) take their money, and 2) shoot them or blow them up or poison them or "what have you" (Martyanov again).
Striking a carrier out of the blue would start WWIII. Striking one after NATO has directly entered into the conflict would not necessarily. But the risk would be elevated. The same applies to striking any NATO asset on the territory of a NATO member, unless that NATO member, like Poland, has said they are operating under their own auspices and not with NATO authorization.
Assassinating neocons wouldn't be that difficult - there is no such thing as "security". But if done on a scale sufficient to really make a difference would be instantly noticeable and the culprit - Russia - would be identified pretty quickly (unless Russia hired some Iranians to do it, which I'm sure the IRGC would be happy to consider.)
The problem is the premise is wrong. Russia has no need to do anything at this point. There is no direct threat of NATO intervention at present. If Poland makes an incursion into Ukraine, they can be handled without NATO involvement, at least at first. If NATO then gets involved, Russia will see that coming a mile away and be able to interdict the effort after issuing appropriate warnings. There's nothing anyone can do if the neocons finally manage to push NATO into starting a direct confrontation with Russia. No amount of "demos" is going to change that.
All this stuff about how the West can interfere with the Ukraine operation is nonsense. None of the weapons being supplied can possibly affect the outcome, no matter how many are supplied or what kinds (short of tactical nukes.) This is because the Ukraine military is no longer in a position to use them effectively, and Russia is quite capable of destroying them either before or when they reach the battlefield, as is being demonstrated daily.
So the premise is wrong and Russia doesn't have to do anything but what they're currently doing. They can take however long their own economic and logistical situation will require.
Now over the longer term, we can concentrate on operations like removing the three main causes of trouble in the world: 1) US and EU oligarchs; 2) the neocons; and 3) the US/EU Deep State. The key problem there is to make the eliminations plausibly deniable. It's doable, but complicated. Still it's the only "final solution" that can work. As for replacements being created, well, rinse and repeat. No amount of "economic pain" is going to get rid of these people, it's going to require "direct action."
Assassination is the most effective form of warfare, even more so than terrorism which itself is more effective than military operations - provided it is done intelligently.
There is also hacking. The West keeps warning about "Russian hackers disrupting everything". Well, they should. If you've got the Devil's name, play the Devil's game. Between digging up blackmail secrets on individuals and compromising corporate criminality, Russia could wreak havoc on the West. Currently the degree of hacking against Russia has reached ridiculous levels. Russia needs to retaliate, not just against Ukraine but the US, UK and EU directly. While depending on the severity of the hack might trigger a kinetic response, it's a lot harder to justify one than an actual kinetic operation. And the origin of a hack can be thoroughly concealed if done competently.
So that's my recommendation: Do nothing now except what is already being done. Later, start taking out the enemy. As someone once said, "Always treat your enemy as your enemy, because he will invariably treat you that way."
By the way, rumor has it that on May 9, during a speech, Putin will officially declare war on Ukraine and call for general mobilization. That should satisfy some of the naysayers here, if it occurs. If he does this, it's likely that my conception of what Russia should do will be implemented, as "I am on record for many years" (Martyanov one more time) that is the only way Russia's security concerns can be properly addressed.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 2 2022 13:18 utc | 84
Mr. Putin is playing to Zone B, as defined by The Saker. He is careful to limit his actions to those that are consistent with international law as codified in the UN. He wants be seen as acting legally in the eyes of the rest of the world. After all, he is a lawyer isn't he?
This requirement severely limits Russia's responses. To date, Russia's responses to the US provocations have been proportionate, haven't they? I think they will continue to be proportionate. They will be reasonable in the eyes of the countries in Zone B. He will not take out the bully's backer in the background. He will go toe to toe with the bully. All of Zone B is watching.
Regarding the "long war" that the US is promising. A long war is a war of attrition, a war of resources and manufacturing capacity. Who wins a resource/manufacturing war, the US/EU or Russia/China???
TheBAG
Posted by: TheBAG | May 2 2022 13:26 utc | 85
Several non lethal take outs (atlantic and pacific submerged rocks???), if feasible, seems a more moderate approach to me. Sinking a carrier seems to me on par with a tactical nuke. Making some carriers inoperable is a strong message as well, without the retaliation pressure.
Posted by: Rootman | May 2 2022 13:27 utc | 86
«The world is dividing into two hostile and mutually exclusive camps just as we had during the Cold War. That does not bode well for Europe or the rest of the World.»
But that is exactly the plan and it is a rational plan:
* After 1990 one globalized market used to be dominated by the USA.
* Now there is a risk that the China will dominate the one globalized market.
* The rational response is to split the one globalized market in two, while the USA is still dominant in most of it.
* The two separate markets would currently be a much larger USA dominated one and a much smaller China dominated one.
* Why wait for the USA dominated part to be smaller than the China dominated one?
Posted by: Blissex | May 2 2022 13:28 utc | 87
No one here knows what has happened to “decision making centers”. RF could easily level the offices in Lvov where 50 Americans do targeting. RF has obliterated other targets in Lvov. Killing 50 Americans would be seen in Washington as casus belli even barflies here saw it as obviously deserved. Better way to handle that is electronically. Which is possible. No one is better equipped to do that than RF.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 2 2022 13:29 utc | 88
Two important sub-goals should be to stop (i) bombing russion soil and (2) all the incomming replenishments (escp. heavy wappons like selfpropelled horowitzers and reconnaissance & attack drones)from the west. Already started and under way but not completed is the systematical destruction of all transportation (rail & strett) from west part to central and east of Ukraine. There are some measures to do that. Most countries in the world consider Kremls military action as strategic defensive. Speed vs. reasonable? Reasonable is d3efinetly in favour and minimizing civilian casualtiese witch is very important in order to show who is on the right side. Why Kreml does not terminate all patent rights of companies from unfriendly western countries? Why Kreml is not announcing, that every western country suppling heavy weappons to Ukraine will be black listed for energy supplies as of xx.xx.xxxx? There are numerous possibilities available.
Posted by: tom | May 2 2022 13:29 utc | 89
I agree with B.
No shooting retaliations, just give the west the rope to hang themselves, one piece of rope is the gas & oil for rubles only, another piece is to cut off gas/oil supplies to those "enemy" nations who have stolen Russia's U$D-Euro reserves (300billion) and who are funding/supporting and shipping weapons to the criminal Ukro Nazi regime, Azov and likewise extremists gangs.
Best for Russia to stick to the "plan" to denazify and demilitarlize Ukraine.
Posted by: Hannibal | May 2 2022 13:39 utc | 90
You give to much stock to kinetic actions, to sink a carrier or not, but the real issue is hegemony vs multipolarity. Until now only the West did R2P, now it's Russia doing it, so she put a dent in the world system. Just imagine, Russia acting for her interests on the world stage. Something the West is not used to, and doesn't accept. It's the precedent they want to eleminate, shut down. Tomorrow it could be Hungary, the day after tomorrow might be Syria, and so on. Bye-bye "values" of the West.
It depends on the plans of Russia, those hashed up scenarios we don't know about (you know, if they do this we do that, and relevant people open the envelopes and the orders are in there...). None of us knows what's going on, hell even RSH The Terible gave up :P predictions. This level of play is above our paygrade, all of us. You can't use logic in this stage, because our logic is too limited for this kind of conflict. It's a mamooth conflict and only states can play it. This UA-RF war is unique, in that it has elements to be traced a thousand years prior, two centuries, eight years, three months, six days, all intertwined.
IMHO, it all depends on the MAJOR INTENTION of Russia, the one buried deep under state secrets that maybe nobody will utter today and nobody will ever know about. I might stupidly speculate that it might be "to destroy the West", "to punish Europe", or anything else. I don't know. But from this intention depends what Russia will do. This is what worries me, that it will stop short. Might stop at the Donbass, might stop at Eastern Ukraine, might stop at Ukraine-Polish border, might stop at... nevermind.
To return to kinetic actions, this conflict being an existencial one for Russia, those kinetic actions do not matter for her, and we can't understand why not because we're stupid, but because just we can't. When we speculate that Moskva was sunk by NATO (or with its help) we wonder why Russia doesn't retaliate (if that's the case). But the very fact that Russia doesn't say what happened, and doesn't do anything, points (for me) to the playing on the level I mentioned above, about which we don't have a clue. It's the system that matters, not the details.
What that system is, I don't have the slightest idea.
Posted by: albagen | May 2 2022 13:40 utc | 91
«If Russia admits that NATO is already in outright warfare with Russia, then that specifically necessitates direct Russian attacks on NATO in response»
In the korean war USA/NATO fought directly with "chinese volunteers" assisting the north koreans, a classic "limited" war. China did not attack the USA nor the USA attacked China. Same in the Falklands war between Argentina and England.
Posted by: Blissex | May 2 2022 13:43 utc | 92
With great respect for our leader, b, I disagree with both suggestions.
Posted by: Brad | May 2 2022 11:43 utc | 52
I am with you, Brad, when you say:
"Let’s be careful here. The US did not attack Russia and Russia did not attack the US. that is the premise to follow. In every conflict so far since WWII both have avoided direct contact. Even in Cuba there was a lot noise, but at the end we continue to live..."
Russia has had the high ground in this action. I feel they are now going slowly because they want to sift out military potential to hold that ground in Ukraine along with the strongholds that have been obtained there - the middle ground, so to speak. That will take time and patience, but I liken it to the success it had in Chechnya, and the success China has had in persuading its own dissidents that there is a positive aspect to peaceful co-existence.
I will bow to the economists here, but I think the current state of affairs economically is fast dissolving. And that will be the test, on that level even if we in the heartland cannot wrest control from the big boys, we can wait them out. I prefer that option to the one of advising Russia to become like them. That has a bad taste in my mouth, to put it mildly. Where they can be hurt is in the economy. We got them out of the TPP - onward, rest of the world! Show us how well you can do without us.
Posted by: juliania | May 2 2022 13:45 utc | 93
For the sinking of the "Moskva" do think that Russia can wipe out Al Tanf in Syrie.
About the same amount of people there as on the "Moskva"... and than 1 problem is solved in Syrie
So in away it will be then 1 on 1 , and the position of the u$a will get weaker in the middle east...
So for Russia a win win...
Posted by: HTG | May 2 2022 13:49 utc | 94
Thread from Gonzalo Lira on this topic
https://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/status/1521075942210289665
Basically do get mad, get boring and win slowly - for those into snooker remember Steve "interesting" Davis
USA will react with fury to any assault, even if it had some provocation , but will soon lose interest if there is a slow steady grind down. Also USA will soon ditch a loser
Posted by: Aslangeo | May 2 2022 13:50 utc | 95
I think, Russia should avoid further escalations. The current phase of the war works well within the potential of the situation. The Russian forces can fight relatively close to Russia -> no current logistics issues -, the losses are much lower than for the "West". Constant dripping of western forces into the Ukraine is a military horror show from a strategic point of view. The Ukraine doesn't have unlimited manpower and currently is losing troops faster than boys are born. Eventuelly countries, especially Poland, the UK, the US, will have to decide to either send their own troops or create massive instability in the western part of the Ukraine.
Posted by: Martin | May 2 2022 13:51 utc | 96
Why not just have operatives in the US to drive around the western states chunking cigarette butts out the window. Keep the Americans busy this summer .
Posted by: Cheryl | May 2 2022 13:52 utc | 97
Theres no reason to attack carriers, they aren't deployed against Russia, it would only give causus belli to declare war on Russia. They shouldn't let their frustration cause this error. A better bite would be to hit an AWACS plane flying near their airspace, just play dumb say they thought it was Ukrainian, offer an apology and see what happens.
Posted by: StrongBad | May 2 2022 13:52 utc | 98
Russia has shown the USA cannot win the economic war, and now must show the USA it cannot win the kinetic war. The American Sheeple need to see a clear demonstration of Russia's military superiority, or the death by a thousand cuts strategy will continue. At some point Russia must show Empire what is at stake. Right now the hubris of mediocrity runs the show. The Bully must get a few broken bones.
Posted by: gottlieb | May 2 2022 14:02 utc | 99
Yes, the continuing problem with USA aggression has always been 'no skin in the game'. Protected by two great oceans from the rest of the civilised world. It was only 9/11 that was able to partially pierce that veil.
Russia, Europe and many other countries remember the bombs and destruction of WW2, America doesn't.
Although it may appear very desirable to destroy the 'invincible' hardware (Carriers, Iron Dome, F35) it's probably better to tighten the screws on the USAs flaky economy and encourage dissent in the land of the freeloaders.
Posted by: Robert Wursthaus | May 2 2022 14:05 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Here in my northern Paradise, in this frozen Kingdom of Zemlyá (famous for its Nobél piss pises and killing of whales an baby seals), the press and even some newscasters openly calls for the asassination of Russian president Putin and his top diplomats and military leaders.
Posted by: Tollef Åsll | May 2 2022 8:29 utc | 1