Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 09, 2022

Ukraine - Putin On Why The War Started, Failed Attempts On Snake Island, Other Issues

Updates below (17:15 UTC)

It is Victory Day. As Ernest Hemingway said:

Anyone who loves freedom owes such a debt to the Red Army that it can never be repaid.

The most important part of Vladimir Putin's speech to the Victory Parade on the Red Square is the narrative that explains how the current war in Ukraine began. Putin is correct in seeing this as a NATO proxy war against Russia:

[D]espite all controversies in international relations, Russia has always advocated the establishment of an equal and indivisible security system which is critically needed for the entire international community.

Last December we proposed signing a treaty on security guarantees. Russia urged the West to hold an honest dialogue in search for meaningful and compromising solutions, and to take account of each other’s interests. All in vain. NATO countries did not want to heed us, which means they had totally different plans. And we saw it.

Another punitive operation in Donbass, an invasion of our historic lands, including Crimea, was openly in the making. Kiev declared that it could attain nuclear weapons. The NATO bloc launched an active military build-up on the territories adjacent to us.

Thus, an absolutely unacceptable threat to us was steadily being created right on our borders. There was every indication that a clash with neo-Nazis and Banderites backed by the United States and their minions was unavoidable.

Let me repeat, we saw the military infrastructure being built up, hundreds of foreign advisors starting work, and regular supplies of cutting-edge weaponry being delivered from NATO countries. The threat grew every day.

Russia launched a pre-emptive strike at the aggression. It was a forced, timely and the only correct decision. A decision by a sovereign, strong and independent country.

The use of 'pre-emptive strike' is somewhat misleading. In fact the Ukraine started the war on Wednesday, February 16 2022, when its forces near the Donbas republics began preparatory artillery strikes for an all out ground attack on the Donbas republics.

The February 15 report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine recorded some 41 explosions in the ceasefire areas. This increased to 76 explosions on Feb 16, 316 on Feb 17, 654 on Feb 18, 1413 on Feb 19, a total of 2026 of Feb 20 and 21 and 1484 on Feb 22.

The OSCE mission reports showed that the great majority of impact explosions of the artillery were on the separatist side of the ceasefire line.


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On February 19 the Ukrainian President Zelensky announced at the Munich Security Conference that the Ukraine would ditch the Budapest memorandum and all related agreements. The Budapest memorandum is about Ukraine committing to be a non-nuclear state.

Those two issues, an imminent ground attack on Donbas and the Ukraine threatening to strive for nuclear weapons, drove the Russian decision on February 21 to recognize the Donbas republics as independent states. (The legal precedence for doing such is the 'western' recognition of Kosovo as an independent state.)

Common defense agreements between the independent states and the Russian Federation were signed. Three days later, during which the Ukrainian attacks on the Donbas republics continued, Russian troops entered the Ukraine under Article 51 of the UN charter.

---

Over the last days there were some interesting developments of the ground.

1. North of Karkov Russian troops are pulling back to shorten their frontline. The city will have to wait until the Donbas has been regained. The Ukraine again declares it is wining as it retakes the towns the Russians have earlier left.


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2. After heavy fighting Russian forces broke through the eastern Donbas front and conquered the heavily defended city of Popasna.


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MilitaryLand.net @Militarylandnet - 8:30 UTC · May 8, 2022
🗺️Ukrainian forces withdrew from Popasna to more favorable and fortified positions in the vicinity, the head of #Luhansk Oblast confirms #UkraineRussiaWar

The city is on a hill about 260 meters above sea level. This is about 100+ meters higher than the areas north, south and west of it. Artillery stationed on the hill will have a very good view and can reach deep into Ukrainian held grounds. It will be able to interdict resupplies on nearby roads to the Ukrainian front troops.

The Ukrainian army process of withdrawing to ever 'more favorable and fortified positions' will probably end in Lviv.

3. The Ukrainian military had launched a commando attack on Snake Island (in the semi circle 30 miles south of Odessa).


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However after previous Ukrainian air attacks Russian troops had already left the island and the Russian airforce had laid an ambush for the attack forces. The Russian Defense Ministry briefings mentioned Ukrainian losses around Snake (Zmeinyi) Island and related operations several times.

07.05.2022 (20:15):

The following have been shot down in the air near Zmeinyi Island: 1 Ukrainian Su-24 bomber, 1 Su-27 fighter jet, 3 Mi-8 helicopters with paratroopers and 2 Bayraktar-TB2 UAV. The Ukrainian amphibious assault boat Stanislav has also been destroyed.

08.05.2022 (10:45):

A Ukrainian naval corvette of project 1241 has also been destroyed near Odessa.
...
During the night, Russian air defence means destroyed 2 more Ukrainian Su-24 bombers and 1 Mi-24 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force over Snake Island, and also shot down 1 Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle near Odessa.

A total of 4 Ukrainian aircraft, 4 helicopters, including 3 with paratroopers on board, 3 Bayraktar-TB2 UAV and 1 Ukrainian Navy amphibious assault boat have been destroyed in the area during the day.

08.05.2022 (19:30)

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles near Zmeinyi Island.

09.05.2022 (12:45)

Oniks high-precision missiles launched by Bastion coastal missile system near Artsiz, Odessa region, have destroyed Ukrainian helicopters at a bounce platform.
...
Three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including two Bayraktar-TB2, have been hit over Snake Island.

(Bounce platform is a mistranslation for a helicopter supply pad that is not a full airport.

The operation was quite costly for the Ukrainian side. Besides the 60+ paratroopers who were killed during the assault one of the helicopter also had the deputy commander of the Ukrainian navy on board. Today it was announced that Col. Ihor Bedzai was killed in action when his helicopter came under Russian airforce fire.

More than 4 helicopters, 4 jets and 6 Bayraktar drones were lost for zero gain. The U.S. is in the process of giving the Ukraine a total of 16 Mi-17 transport helicopters that were originally supposed to go to Afghanistan. At the current Ukrainian rate of losses such supplies, just like others, will not last for long.

Under the current circumstances Snake Island is of little military value. It seems that the sole point of the Ukrainian operation to retake it was to create a propaganda item for today's Victory Parade. It now is one but for the Russian side.

Update 17:15 UTC:

The last briefing (09.05.2022 (19:15) by the Russian Defense Ministry (published after the above post) again mentions Snake Island:

According to the updated information, 6 Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters have been destroyed during the night near Artsiz in Odessa Region near the Chervonoglinskoe military airfield by Onyks high-precision missiles from the Bastion coastal missile system.
...
On 7 May, on direct orders from Zelensky, the Ukrainian General Staff, with the direct involvement of advisers from the USA and Britain, planned a major provocation to seize Zmeiny Island.

Over the past two days, the Kiev regime has made several desperate attempts to land air and sea assaults on Zmeiny Island, which is important for controlling the northwestern part of the Black Sea.

The Ukrainian provocation was thwarted as a result of the competent actions of a Russian Armed Forces unit on the island. The enemy suffered heavy losses.

4 Ukrainian airplanes, including 3 Su-24 and 1 Su-27, 3 Mi-8 helicopters with paratroopers on board, and 1 Mi-24 helicopter have been shot down in the air while repelling the attacks near Zmeiny Island.

Within two days, 29 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down in the air, including 8 Bayraktar TB-2 strike UAVs. Meanwhile, 4 Bayraktar drones have been shot down this afternoon.

Also, 3 armoured Ukrainian amphibious assault boats carrying Ukrainian naval personnel were destroyed during an attempted landing on the night of May 8.

As a result of Zelensky's thoughtless provocation, more than 50 Ukrainian saboteurs have been killed at sea and on the coast during the landing and attempts to consolidate on the island.

24 bodies of dead Ukrainian servicemen were left on the shore of Zmeiny Island.

Posted by b on May 9, 2022 at 16:20 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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thanks b... i agree this war was started earlier then feb 24th.. yes, putin made the announcement on feb 24th, but nato has been making the announcement since long before.... as for the boondoggle over snake island, this implies a lack of insight in ukraines command center...

i want to reply to a post from the previous thread - @
Paul Greenwood | May 9 2022 9:34 utc | 177 comments

" The US gains nothing from holding Europe captive but loses EVERYTHING from losing Europe. Largest EU trading partner is China. Trains run from Shanghai and Wuhan into Germany every week carrying laptops and other goods across Russia. It is far faster than by ship.

That is now halted.

That is the whole purpose of the Ukraine War. Now China intends to use Mariupol as a port at the end of the train line and avoid Malucca Straits and Suez Canal.

Merkel signed an Investment Treaty with China during German presidency of European Council and US was incandescent under Trump. Conte as PM in Italy signed wide-ranging treaties with China including Yellow Brick Road Treaty -

US watched its colonies slipping away."

i think this is very insightful commentary.. thanks also to the exchange with @orage and k, richard steven hack and lex and etc. etc... i learn from all you folks.. thanks!

Posted by: james | May 9 2022 16:31 utc | 1

terrific report, as usual. Thanks so much, Bernhard!

Posted by: Eric Zuesse | May 9 2022 16:33 utc | 2

People in Poland have lost their minds.Disgusting behaviour.

Ambassador to Russia in Warsaw Andreev tried to commemorate the fallen Soviet warriors, he was attacked by local outcasts and doused with red paint. After the attack, he left the place, accompanied by police.

https://t.me/NewResistance/8470

Posted by: Kim | May 9 2022 16:35 utc | 3

US charter? UN charter you mean.

Posted by: Jan | May 9 2022 16:35 utc | 4

George Bush warned America in 1991 not to get involved in Ukraine by taking sides against Russia.

Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slwUFNt3FO8

Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 9 2022 16:45 utc | 5

The truth is always simple.

Posted by: Jpc | May 9 2022 16:46 utc | 6

The Ukraine operation is sliding down and off front pages. Looks like it's not the ratings hit the Empire needed, and worse, the peasants are catching on to the propaganda faster than they used to. As the NATO countries send treasure and weapons to the Nazis and try to suppress inconvenient facts, domestic problems and unrest will get worse. This is how uprisings happen.

Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | May 9 2022 16:46 utc | 7

im very glad the USSR stopped the brutal nazi regime, and now Russia may be stopping US unipolar control of the world. I shed no tears for the British empire either, the sun has set and good riddance.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 9 2022 16:47 utc | 8

How do these Sukhois get in the air at all? There is a working runway somewhere? An intact hangar? Supplies of jet fuel? Yes, it is only 2 planes. And then it would require pilots with a death wish.

Maybe they fly out of Romania? Still needs the pilot waiting to die. For an uninhabited rock. And a press release.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 9 2022 16:49 utc | 9

The ukraine doesn't have a victory day because 1) they never won a damn thing and 2) they're Nazi's.

Posted by: mikhas | May 9 2022 16:52 utc | 10

@ oldhippie | May 9 2022 16:49 utc | 9

a few of us have been asking this question! i think the odessa airport was bombed a few days ago... if anyone knows, i too would be curious...

Posted by: james | May 9 2022 16:53 utc | 11


Congratulations to Russia on the 77th Victory Day.
A little anti-Empire satire/comedy for a day of glory and remembrance
_______________________________________
Indeed, it’s a great privilege for you to meet me.
Which rag are you from – Financial Crimes of London? Grope & Fail of Canada?
Whichever, they are all great fish wraps, I mean, newspapers.
I shall kick off your exclusive with me using a favorite line from Alfred Joyce Kilmer:
``Poems are made by fools like me. But only God can make a tree``.
Kilmer then shipped out to the trenches in that silly internecine Great War and remains in Gaul, RIP.
But they do say there’s a fool born every minute – unwitting or starry-eyed - and there’s never been a short supply of knuckleheads to defend an oligarch’s wallet and interests.
Sorry, I mean, freedom, democracy and all that.
So what’s the big deal just cuz we can’t make a tree?
We don’t make much these days anyways except trouble for everyone.
Ask the Russians! We can sanction cats, Siberian huskies, skating stars, tennis players, yachts, Tchaikovsky, banks – even authors, river banks and rivers if we want! Quiet Flows The Don!
What’s some gnarled trunk and withered leaves to us?
We even came down on their Orthodox church patriarch for being too chummy with Putin.
We gave the Pope a pass, though he shot his mouth off about Nato being a troublemaker in The Ukraine!
Wtf! We are a Defensive alliance!

Let that be a warning to Him who’s the true master of the universe here! We are Exceptional!
Some of our enemies are mocking us that our sanctions don’t work. Nonsense.
Don’t mind those heathen Chinese. We will just nuke them into a radioactive desert and call it peace.
That will shut them up about their 5000 years of history. Hey, we civilized Westerners have centuries of peaceful Roman heritage, too. Tacitus would be proud!
Off the record, though – which rag you from again? Washington Roast? Sydney Mourning Herald? – we have to be careful with those nuke-armed Chinamen cuz they ain’t some shithole country that we pick up and throw against the wall for fun, like Libya or Yugo or Iraq.
Those were small, morale-boosting exercises for our boys. And as Madeleine said – great dame, that – what’s the point of having the best army in the world if we don’t use it once in a while?
In the meantime, we continue to refine our sanctions package that adds up to 10,000 and counting.
Hey, soon we will even sanction the sanctions; it will be like the financial industry with derivatives, call options, shorts, what not!
Brilliant! Janet at Treasury and Katherine at Trade are working on that. Our leaders can’t wait to cream the scams, I mean, roll out details of the financial incentives that will kickstart our economy. MAGA!
We clearly got the Russians by the cojones and they are squealing in Chinese for help.
That Medvedev dude talked up Sun Tzu about `know your enemy as yourself, score 100 victories’. (知 己知 彼百战 胜)。
So he means that Russians and The Ukrainians are drawn and drink from the same Slavic well.
But we poisoned that well and they now mix like oil and water!
I know some Chinese stuff too ( polymath and all that) and here’s this line: 河水不犯井水。
The river should not disturb the well – the small guy can swallow the big bully.
David and Goliath stuff, you know.
Nato + The Ukraine = river.
Russia = well.
Figure that out.
Now let me see you out with some Haribos gummy bears – Germany is not sending anymore to Russia!
Shh, not sanctions – I cornered the market all for myself. But I share some with you. Just remember to write what I want.
Enjoy!!

Posted by: LittleWhiteCabbage | May 9 2022 17:06 utc | 12

james@11 this link has news on a hotel hit in Odessa and a nearby airfield yesterday.


https://warnews247.gr/asyllipti-tragodia-oi-oukranoi-chanoun-1-000-andres-ana-24-ores-evrexe-iskander-k-stin-odisso-isopedothike-vasi-misthoforon/

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 9 2022 17:12 utc | 13

Snake island seems like a good strong hold/re supply/short range tactical advantage/radar/intel/special ops/ to operate from. Long term it’s advantageous and short term if you succeed in securing and digging in you can media win if it’s tried to be destroyed again.

I don’t buy that it’s valueless.

Posted by: Dimitris | May 9 2022 17:19 utc | 14

Context: U.S. breaking off W. Europe from EurAsia, keep it on-side, extract wealth, maintain current Western social order.


@Previous thread, 231:Sushi...who laid out a very good summary of "then: uni-polar post-WW2 world" and now "emergent multi-polar world" focused on cultural and economic dimensions. One point he made that I'd like to re-post for consideration:

[the Wests] Need[s] to move away from Fossil Fuel mechanized supply chains to electrification and low emissions supply chains. A complex and rapidly evolving area of debate but includes such things as China's development of pedestrian centered cities linked by high speed levitated rail.

A bit more context-setting before I make the main points:

We barflies are engaging in some concern-trolling about "what will Europe do, what's their role in West's section of this emerging multi-polar world? Expensive energy, no eastern markets (Russia and China), systematic wealth-extraction by West's capitalist elites...lookin' grim"

Main points:

I suggest that our concerns about W.Europe's welfare are a bit overblown. West Europe is very, very wealthy. Highly educated, motivated workforce, full infrastructure build-out, food self-sufficient, politically fairly stable. Yes, they have to ID a new econ role in the world that leverages these strengths, and those strengths are considerable. Yes, they have to re-cast the political relationship with the U.S.

Why would they not be able to do that? Because they're "owned" by the U.S.? It doesn't take long for people to forget the past, maybe even forget the present, and start asking "what have you done for me lately?"

Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland have full capacity to re-design their economy. They had enormous motivation already (automation .vs. middle class issues, energy dependency, climate change) and now they have way more motivation - their extant mfg'g capacity and export markets just got whacked by geopolitics. Whacked good.

Now let me bring in Sushi's excellent point. I ask Sushi's forbearance, as I am going to extend his point possibly a bit further than he intended. The West's installed economic physical plant is bordering on obsolete. Energy and materials input costs are going to rise fast, and environmental crisis are going to force economies to address "externalities" (costs fobbed off onto the public via pollution, waste-streams, etc). I recognize that many barflies disclaim "environmental concerns", but I'm not one that does. They are going to exert massive effect in short order.

Ag, transport, materials sourcing (mining, etc.) sectors are exceedingly wasteful. They also are so automated and efficient that they contribute almost nothing to employment, and less every day.

These increasing input-costs and forced attribution of "externalities" to the source will force major redesigns of economies.

Why is this relevant? Because W. Europe may well be the first Western economy to do the redesign. Their existing economic infrastructure just got a massive "write down" - it's much less "economic" to operate than it was say... a year ago, and that condition may be a durable one.

W. Europe's situation has changed massively. They are capable of change on all counts, and their motivation to change just increased by an order of magnitude, at least.

After war-fervor subsides, and I expect that it will in a year or two, there will be an economic reckoning, and I expect that reckoning to be an economy-design reckoning.

We can play war-games, profiteer from "defense", and posture and blather for a while, but some aspects of economics are almost physics - realities ultimately win out. Thermodynamics (how much work-done do you actually derive from your energy use) and entropy (concentrations of materials tend to get dispersed) are starting to bite.

The West, wagons circled or not, has aged, nearly obsolete econ infrastructure. It can't swipe Russia's materials, and extract rents from it. The ponzi-scheme inflows (rents extracted from colonies) are coming to an end.

The West is now face-to-face with thermodynamics, entropy, and the caustic social forces of wealth concentration.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 15

Some more heli's down near Odessa according to the 18.28 update by the MoD.

▫️According to the updated information, 6 Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters have been destroyed during the night near Artsiz in Odessa Region near the Chervonoglinskoe military airfield by Onyks high-precision missiles from the Bastion coastal missile system.

Also 29UAV's including 8 Bayaktars. Those Bayaktars keep popping up. Turkey busy supplying them?

It looks like the Odessa area is getting the needed attention now. I wonder when they are running out, the same for the planes. More of them in West-Ukro?

Posted by: DuchZ | May 9 2022 17:25 utc | 16

@oldhippie | May 9 2022 16:49 utc | 9 and others

combat planes, like any other stuff, need regular maintenance and repair. Old planes even more. So, out of the total fleet, let's say some 50% are usable at a given moment. The others are in workshops, often in hardened shelters. Once they are repaired they are operational again. Usually, every plane has it's pilot.
Therefore, a small number of planes and helicopters drop back into operation.
OTOH, there is no priority to destroy planes in workshops, as they may be more difficult to find. They may be out of order anyway, beyond repair.

So - nothing strange here.

For comparision, the quite new US F-35 had 50% of their fleet grounded during FY2021 according to an official report.

Posted by: BG13 | May 9 2022 17:26 utc | 17

The demise of democracy in Europe is mind boggling.

The highly incompetent and totally corrupt Ursula is destroying the EU one step at a time.

Today she announced that “ unanimity voting no longer makes sense in key policy areas”

"I have always argued that unanimity voting in some key areas simply no longer makes sense if we want to be able to move faster. Or that Europe should play a greater role – for example in health or defence," she told the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-commission-head-says-unanimity-114433152.html

And she traveled to Hungary in order to blackmail Orban for the sanctions against Russia.

She is a dangerous 5th columnist and a horrible “present” from Mutti.

She must go.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 17:34 utc | 18

"The Ukraine operation is sliding down and off front pages. Looks like it's not the ratings hit the Empire needed, and worse, the peasants are catching on to the propaganda faster than they used to......"

well said No One You Ever Know

Posted by: Oso | May 9 2022 17:43 utc | 19

The ukraine doesn't have a victory day because 1) they never won a damn thing and 2) they're Nazi's.

Posted by: mikhas | May 9 2022 16:52 utc | 10

But they do. Ukraine stole - and subverted - the Soviet / Russian victory day.


Posted by: Martina | May 9 2022 17:44 utc | 20

@ DG | May 9 2022 17:34 utc | 17
aMEN. Amen.

Did the Parliament tell her she should first devolve powers to Parliament so that elected representatives could decide? Wouldn't help much, but would at least copy the form of democracy.
Who does Ursala vd Lugen actually represent?
Does she have to stand trial like the Doge in Venice to see if she lied and reneged on promises?

Note that the original Athenian democracy chose by random chance ... they had a primitive random generator contraption, and the people did not vote. Why not? Because they thought that people who sought power were the last you should elect. Better to have people who don't want the job! They would have called our system aristocracy (elect the best).

Posted by: Webej | May 9 2022 17:45 utc | 21

The attempted attack on Snake Island is today's version of the Charge of the Light Brigade. A very good display of the No Fly Zone's effectiveness and futility in challenging it.

IMO, the future's objective historians will judge Russia to be legally and morally correct in its actions, while the Outlaw US Empire gets a very well deserved vilification akin to Hitlerian Germany.

The way to global peace is via NATO's dissolution and Outlaw US Empire bankruptcy as it appears 7/8ths of the world is very close to living in harmony. The UN and its Charter are only as sound/strong as the nations willing to uphold them; although until the above events occur, it requires a change of venue--Damascus is my suggestion.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 17:46 utc | 22

I shed no tears for the British empire either, the sun has set and good riddance.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 9 2022 16:47 utc | 8

The British empire died a long time ago. Even the post-imperial loose association, the Commonwealth, is dying. The Royals were insulted in their recent visit to the former Caribbean colonies. Johnson and the Brexiters have killed the last vestiges of loyalty.

Posted by: laguerre | May 9 2022 17:46 utc | 23

Thanks for the anchor to full text of Putin's remarks.

This is a sample of what's playing in anglophone press.
Highlights from Putin’s speech at Victory Day parade on Moscow’s Red Square

Posted by: sln2002 | May 9 2022 17:50 utc | 24

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 14

interesting observations, ty. I for one would like to hear more.

Posted by: Oso | May 9 2022 17:51 utc | 25

Gonzalo Lira II

2022.05.09 Get Ready For The Economic Collapse
5,468 viewsMay 9, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXnOFXUmVv0

Posted by: JC | May 9 2022 17:51 utc | 26

Re: snake island
I am embarased by all you clowns at the bar. Think!! It is blindingly obvious. Burried treasure!! The missing gold that the second spanish republic sent to russia during the civil war is hidden there.

Posted by: c | May 9 2022 17:59 utc | 27

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 14

All excellent points. But there is going to have to be a deep-level renaissance of the cultural heart as well as substantive political reform before the economic stuff alone can slide into place - as vital as it is.

War is clarifying that way, and this is a war although it's early days yet...

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 18:00 utc | 28

Important update. Happy victory day and eternal gratitude indeed for all who defeated the Nazis in WWII, and going forward!

Re: the value of Snake Island - probably not nothing. Although there are other ways to do it, it would provide an alternative to constant presence of ships or aircraft for observation of sea/land movement along the nearby coast, and to put air defense. Seems like the tiny island would be impossible for either side to defend against rocket strikes, however.

Re: valuable high points in the Donbas area, like Popasnaya - There was a nice topo map posted recently showing detail:

https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFSQe-BWXoAEAtKF.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig

Also: random flyby of the town
https://nitter.net/200_zoka/status/1523594221110046721

Posted by: ptb | May 9 2022 18:02 utc | 29

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 17:46 utc | 21

"IMO, the future's objective historians will judge Russia to be legally and morally correct in its actions, while the Outlaw US Empire gets a very well deserved vilification akin to Hitlerian Germany."

Ah! So you are forecasting a Russian victory already.

Because if the Bad Guys win, fer sure history won't be written your way.

Because even if there IS such a thing as an 'objective historian' hardly anyone would publish or read their work!

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 18:04 utc | 30

The canard that history is written by the victors ignores the proliferation of and mechanism for revisionist historiography and histories. It's an antihistorical, theological and militarist propaganda construct.

Posted by: Ralph Reed | May 9 2022 18:08 utc | 31

I am confused. I was certain that every Ukrainian plane is destroyed. And all the airports are unusable. Have I fallen victim to propaganda?

Posted by: Joe6pack | May 9 2022 18:09 utc | 32

The demise of democracy in Europe is mind boggling.

The highly incompetent and totally corrupt Ursula is destroying the EU one step at a time.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 17:34 utc | 17

True, but it's important to distinguish between the EU and the idiot current occupiers of the chief positions. It's not only von der Leyen, but also Scholz. Many commenters on MoA have been predicting the imminent demise of the EU for a long time, much like Brexiters have been doing for 40 years in Britain. But the EU is still there. There's a failure of understanding why the EU exists, and how it does so. Idiocies on the part of UvdL don't destroy an institution. Though I would agree that idiot support for Ukraine does risk bringing down the whole western system, and launching those little mushroom clouds.

Posted by: laguerre | May 9 2022 18:09 utc | 33

Most of the mainstream West press is reporting Ukraine’s attack on Snake Island having hit the Russians hard. Of course the guy from Forbes also makes note of gains Ukraine is having moving it troops northward so he clearly misunderstands the entire battlefield. Yet can’t trust Russia’s Defense Ministry either.

Posted by: GS | May 9 2022 18:11 utc | 34

“ Who does Ursala vd Lugen actually represent?” @17

I really have no idea. Certainly not the people of EU.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 18:12 utc | 35

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 14

You should apply to Annalena Wehrbock and Robert Hartbock as a scriptwriter.

Sie wären ein perfekter Redenschreiber für die GRÜNEN Kriegstreiber auf ihrem nächsten Parteitag, Herr Pfotzner.
Sich etwas schwurbeliges ausdenken so in Richtung "Innovation", "Chance" und "Aufbruch", ohne auch nur einen konkrete Idee, worin dieser Neustart eigentlich bestehen soll. Scheissegal, Hauptsache Hoffnung. Bis die chinesische Wirtschaft Zeugs von gestern liefert, wird Deutschland lange warten dürfen.

Zero points from my side.

Posted by: njet | May 9 2022 18:13 utc | 36

A most interesting development.

I would strongly suspect the various western "Ministry of Truth Agencies". Will now double down on the fiction and lies of Diktator "Z" of country 404............

DUCK AND COVER INCOMING WAVES OF "RUSSOPHOBIC PROPAGANDA" IN..............

A lie gets half way around the world. Before truth has time to get it's pants on...........

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 9 2022 18:16 utc | 37

Scorpion @29--

Because even if there IS such a thing as an 'objective historian' hardly anyone would publish or read their work!

Gee, you and many other barflies and my hundreds of VK friends read what I write; and as I explained here years ago, my #1 quest as a historian is Objectivity, which is the theme of my 1998 essay on the topic.

Also, Russia could lose but its decision be deemed correct--Victory isn't a validation of correctness, unless you're a Court Historian.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 18:20 utc | 38

james | May 9 2022 16:31 utc | 1

The US gains nothing from holding Europe captive but loses EVERYTHING from losing Europe. Largest EU trading partner is China. Trains run from Shanghai and Wuhan into Germany every week carrying laptops and other goods across Russia. It is far faster than by ship.

That is now halted.

I believe China changed the route and the trains are still running.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 18:20 utc | 39

Europe's obedience to USA presumably resembles UK craven lapdog subservience to the USA - which is probably economic at base . Telling the USA we do not support their engineered proxy war with Russia might well be supported by the people of Britain ( though given the Orwellian anti-Russian propaganda tsunami , perhaps they wouldn't ) . We can only wish and dream .

Posted by: kiltdownman | May 9 2022 18:21 utc | 40

“ There's a failure of understanding why the EU exists, and how it does so. Idiocies on the part of UvdL don't destroy an institution.” @32

The EU exists in a vacuum of logic, an institution that doesn’t make sense and as the latest decisions re sanctions against Russia prove the bureaucracy running said institution is working against the interests of the Europeans.

I agree with you that Ursula is not the only idiot, but this is not a comforting thought.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 18:21 utc | 41

Joe6pack | May 9 2022 18:09 utc | 31

US keeps feeding ex soviet planes and helicopters into Ukraine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 18:23 utc | 42

The demise of democracy in Europe is mind boggling.

The highly incompetent and totally corrupt Ursula is destroying the EU one step at a time.

Today she announced that “ unanimity voting no longer makes sense in key policy areas”

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 17:34 utc | 17

She is unspeakably dangerously, stupidly incompetent.
That's the consequences of failing upwards for a career for the people of Europe!
An arrogant empty suit that doesn't realize it's ineptitude.
And check out her PhD"controversy"

Posted by: Jpc | May 9 2022 18:25 utc | 43

What astounds me most of all is the tendency for people (USA) to simply swallow whatever "news" is thrown their way without question. There is even a contradiction ready and waiting for anything that differs from whatever is being sold as truth. Even though these "truths" have about weeks shelf life before they are debunked. For example: "What about the idea that we are funding neoNazis?" Reply: "Oh that's just something Putin says..." Given that I am surrounded by NPCs that are literally just too stupid to matter, it came as no shock when they were led hastily from the Covid Terror to the Glory to the Ukraine narrative...oooops, that's getting stale so it off to Roe-v-Wade after a week live shooter drill in the subway. It all makes more sense when you take into account that the Lemmings in the original Disney film were HERDED off the cliff....

Posted by: Chevrus | May 9 2022 18:28 utc | 44

Does anyone have a link to a Telegram channel or some other place where all the captured soldiers with Nazi tattoos, homes found with Swastika flags and related symbols from Ukraine are being documented? I need it to send to my friends who roll their eyes every time I tell them about Ukrainian Nazis. They can be forgiven for doubting... the western media has never had such a tight control over contrary information.

Posted by: RootBier | May 9 2022 18:31 utc | 45

To oldhippie@9 and james@11,

The way I had it explained to me by a friend who served in a rocket artillery regiment is that the infrastructure of airports & landing strips are reasonably quick, to the point of hours of intensive work, to repair to an operational state.

To completely destroy concrete slabs and tarmac to a point beyond repair, one would need to expend time and munitions to such a degree that it's considered wasteful, which is why the preferred tactic is intermittent low-intensity strikes to act as suppression and disruption, keeping operational activity at the airports to a minimum. By that logic, the Russians presumably monitor the airports for signs of activity and fire a few rounds whenever they see something they don't like, .

As for destroying the planes on the ground, this isn't as easy as one might think. Distant airports presumably have enough time to trigger their early warning systems before incoming strikes can reach them, which allows the pilots to take their planes up in the air and loiter while the hangars below get demolished.

Smaller jets also aren't impossible to hide and Soviet planes were generally built to be able to land on and take off from rough terrain, so there are prospects for using even the most rudimentary civilian infrastructure in lieu of workable airports. That doesn't change the dynamic once these jets participate in combat operations however, in which case few if any survive longer than a single sortie.

Posted by: Skiffer | May 9 2022 18:31 utc | 46

Posted by: Dean Oneil | May 9 2022 16:45 utc | 5

Interesting video. Even the Bush Crime Family was occasionally right. Also further evidence that the USA is not agreement capable. Why would any country take us at our word?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 9 2022 18:37 utc | 47

The EU exists in a vacuum of logic, an institution that doesn’t make sense

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 18:21 utc | 40

Conventional attitude from an American (say what if not). A complete failure of understanding of why the EU exists. Nobody's leaving the "vacuum", except the idiot British. Funnily enough, nobody's following the British example. Why might that be? probably because everyone benefits. Me, living in France, I see it every day.

Posted by: laguerre | May 9 2022 18:38 utc | 48

Scorpion | May 9 2022 18:04 utc | 29

the western world will cease to exist before russia loses.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 18:38 utc | 49

Von der Leyen's wanting to get rid of the unanimity rule for the EU is ominous. I have no doubt there will be a similar suggestion made about NATO, which would mean that Hungary by herself, or even Hungary joined by a few countries, could not block the admission of Finland to NATO. Which could mean a wider war.

It's a great pity Le Pen was not elected.

Immediately after the first round, I posted on line that the obvious solution was an electoral alliance between Le Pen and Melenchon. But Melenchon thought otherwise.

Posted by: Lysias | May 9 2022 18:40 utc | 50

LOL..."anecdotal reports" says a "senior US defense official." So not only are these "anecdotal reports" not specific in any way, but the source CNN cites is a(nother...sigh) unnamed/anonymous "official." I guess the narrative managers have stopped even trying to make the propaganda they spew 24/7 look convincing.

US sees "anecdotal reports" of Russian troops in Ukraine not obeying orders, senior defense official says

From CNN's Michael Conte and Oren Liebermann

The US sees “anecdotal reports” of Russian troops and “mid-grade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level” refusing to obey orders to move forward in the new Donbas offensive in Ukraine, according to a senior US defense official.

The official said these officers “have either refused to obey orders or are not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey.”

Russian forces have struggled with widespread morale problems since the beginning of the invasion, according to this official, which is just one of numerous problems that has plagued the Russian military during this war.

Russian forces are also still facing logistics issues that are slowing their progress, according to the official.

There are 97 operational battalion tactical groups (BTGs) of Russian forces in Ukraine right now, up from 92 BTGs assessed on April 28, the official told reporters on Monday. This is an increase of five BTGs in 11 days.

"It’s not unusual for them to move a BTG or two out of the Donbas back into Russia for re-fit or re-supply and then move them back in, that’s normal," the official said. But overall, "they've added about five BTGs to Ukraine, and all of those BTGs are either in the east or in the south" of Ukraine, the official said.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 9 2022 18:41 utc | 51

karlof1@21. i second your suggestion, damascus, indeed would suit.

Posted by: emersonreturn | May 9 2022 18:42 utc | 52

Posted by: BG13 | May 9 2022 17:26 utc | 16

...OTOH, there is no priority to destroy planes in workshops, as they may be more difficult to find. They may be out of order anyway, beyond repair

So - nothing strange here...


So you're saying there are hangers - complete with runways, that remain secret to Russian intelligence?

OK I just read Skiffer's explanation @ 45, fair enough. And yet, even if those planes manage to takeoff in time to avoid incoming strikes, where are they going to land and shelter immediately following the strike?

How about the amphibious assault ship. What kind of tonnage are we talking about here and how does one hide something like that?

Is anyone satisfied with the idea that russian intelligence cannot find an amphibious assault ship?

Posted by: robin | May 9 2022 18:44 utc | 53

Re: Ukraine warplanes

@2 oldhippie "And then it would require pilots with a death wish"

That's what I find somewhat surprising. Better than getting killed in a trench perhaps. There's some talk of running low on experienced pilots, though that is unclear.

According to the dubious wikipedia, numbers of the most relevant planes: after the end of the USSR, Ukraine inherited 120 Su-24 and 92 Su-25. Though many/most were not in service at the start of the war, they could be repaired, especially with foreign assistance to fabricate missing parts. Similarly at one time, 70 Su-27 were listed, and a similar number of MiG-29. In addition to any possible imports from Eastern Euro countries.

Compare that to Russian MoD reports 162 aircraft destroyed (which also includes some transports)... Perhaps they are, at this point, simply fielding them as fast as they can be refurbished from whatever semi-complete airframes are in storage.

Posted by: ptb | May 9 2022 18:44 utc | 54

Posted by: RootBier | May 9 2022 18:31 utc | 44

https://t.me/intelslava
https://t.me/wargonzo

Posted by: njet | May 9 2022 18:48 utc | 55

“ And check out her PhD"controversy" @42

Oh if only this was the only controversy. She was investigated for her shady deals while she was MoD, and she still hasn’t released the SMSs she was exchanging with the Pfizer CEO.

The woman is trouble.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 18:49 utc | 56

oldhippie | May 9 2022 16:49 utc | 9

Soviet, and I think current Russian aircraft are built to be able to take off from rough combat airfields whereas US planes need something like a perfectly clean billiard table.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 18:53 utc | 57

Europe need not collapse and it could reinvent itself. Just like the US could. That doesn’t mean they will. Has there been anything in the last 30 years which shows the west capable and willing to take a long hard look at itself, make adjustments and move forward? There were certainly plenty of opportunities.

The problem with transitioning western economies comes back to raw materials though. The US could be essentially self-sufficient; it could probably produce enough of the raw materials needed for the economic transition of itself and Europe. But it needed to start that a while ago. I work adjacent to those industries. It has not started and attempts to do so are generally thwarted. You can frack a field in a week, but you can’t build a mine that fast or a steel mill.

What the west will need to do in what appears to be the coming context requires long term planning, investment and effort. None of these are currently hallmarks of western thinking or behavior. Look at Germany’s “green” energy. It requires growing pines in the US, cutting them down, grinding them up, pelletizing them, shipping them to Germany and then burning them. Except they have less energy density than coal and still need emissions controls. These are the sorts of “solutions” the west finds.

Possible, probable, likely. All analysis needs to bin actions in one of those. Europe needs a lot of likely and mostly has possible. Not intrinsically but because the time to make the transition is being shortened by self-harming geopolitics at the behest of Eastern European members and the US.

Posted by: Lex | May 9 2022 18:53 utc | 58

It's a great pity Le Pen was not elected.

Posted by: Lysias | May 9 2022 18:40 utc | 49

So you're a fascist. I didn't think that of you.

Even my nationalist friend, who once told me she nearly voted for Le Pen, now admits that Macron is good for France.

Posted by: laguerre | May 9 2022 18:53 utc | 59

Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | May 9 2022 16:46 utc | 7

...the peasants are catching on to the propaganda faster than they used to...

Is this an observation you make or is it more of a wish?

Posted by: robin | May 9 2022 18:53 utc | 60

Is anyone satisfied with the idea that russian intelligence cannot find ...

Posted by: robin | May 9 2022 18:44 utc | 52

---

The nearer to the point of use an asset is destroyed the more expensive it is for the enemy. The costs for a weapon continually rise until it is used.

Posted by: too scents | May 9 2022 18:54 utc | 61

Me, living in France, I see it every day. @47

Me, living in Greece, I ve being seeing the opposite since 2010.


Von der Leyen's wanting to get rid of the unanimity rule for the EU is ominous.@49

Very. Unfortunately the people of Europe have decided long ago to give up their sovereignty in exchange of the privileges laguere is referring to. The truth is that the view of Europe is very different if you live at the center than the view you have living in the periphery.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 18:56 utc | 62

@ Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 14

thanks tom... i wonder if sush is not a female, as opposed to male? either way - thanks both of you for the commentary and insights..

here is a translation of @ njet | May 9 2022 18:13 utc | 35 view from germany i take it...

You would be a perfect speechwriter for the GREEN warmongers at their next party congress, Herr Pfotzner.
Thinking up something whimsical in the direction of "innovation", "chance" and "departure", without even having a concrete idea of what this new start should actually consist of. Fuck it, the main thing is hope. Germany will have to wait a long time until the Chinese economy delivers yesterday's stuff.

Posted by: james | May 9 2022 18:57 utc | 63

Scott Ritter has penned An open letter to the American people, as Russia celebrates its WW2 victory over the Nazis that's part autobiographical and thus informs us of his behavior. He concludes with words that are hard for people like myself and Scott to swallow but must be soberly faced:

"Unlike the Germans, the Russian people don’t forget.

"Sadly, I cannot say the same thing about the American people. There will be no Victory in Europe celebration in the United States this year, just as there hasn’t been for years past. We have forgotten our “Greatest Generation” and the sacrifices they made for our future. There is no American “Immortal Regiment” of family members marching proudly down the main streets of US towns and cities honoring the cause for which these young men and women served.

"We have forgotten what they even fought for....

"Instead, the United States is providing succor to the present-day adherents of Bandera, and by extension, Hitler; their hateful ideology disguised as Ukrainian nationalism. American military personnel, whose traditions are born from the heroic sacrifices made by hundreds of thousands of their fellow soldiers, sailors, and airmen who gave their lives to defeat Nazi Germany, are today providing weapons and training to Ukrainians whose bodies and banners bear the markings of Hitler’s Third Reich.

"On May 9, Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the 77th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. Unfortunately, the struggle against Nazi ideology continues to this day and, sadly, the United States finds itself on the wrong side of history, supporting those whom we once were sworn to defeat, while fighting against those whom we once called allies."

The Deep, Dark history documenting decades of such "succor" Ritter omits although he knows it, but I don't condemn him for the omission as very few of those his letter addresses will be provided an opportunity to read it since Free Speech and Press are cancelled. Perhaps barflies might share his letter with those still able to appreciate its contents since standing up for your country--in my case the USA--means being very much opposed to those aiding Fascists & Nazis while destroying their own people and lying about it all every step of the way.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 19:00 utc | 64

@ Peter AU1 | May 9 2022 18:20 utc | 38

thanks.. it is only a matter of time when mariupol opens up in a different way...

@ Skiffer | May 9 2022 18:31 utc | 45

thanks skiffer.. that is an excellent response that explains it very well... now i understand it better.. thanks..

Posted by: james | May 9 2022 19:01 utc | 65

@b

Not for being puntilious, being myself the chanpion of typos, but, I wonder whether you wanted to mean Article 51 of the UN Charter, instead of the US Charter....

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | May 9 2022 19:02 utc | 66

So you're a fascist. I didn't think that of you. @58

No. Lysias is not a fascist. I’m not a fascist and I agree with Lysias and I can see that Macron is not a democrat.

So the fascist label is just an illusion that hides the fact that both Lepen and Macron are pure fascists.

And somehow I prefer a fascist who wants to dismantle NATO than one who wants to preserve it and expand it.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 19:09 utc | 67


"...The Ukrainian army process of withdrawing to ever 'more favorable and fortified positions' will probably end in Lviv..."

hahaha. bernhard nailed that one.

heck, Lviv will probably be in nato-Polish hands before too long.

overall good round up and update, b, good one.

Posted by: michaelj72 | May 9 2022 19:10 utc | 68

USA revokes Trump's penalties for importing Ukrainian steel !!!

Fantastic trolling on American part, just fantastic!!!

Posted by: Arioch | May 9 2022 19:13 utc | 69

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 17:34 utc | 17

I disagree re unanimity voting in the EU - that never made any sense, you just can't have any progress with that.

Posted by: zet | May 9 2022 19:13 utc | 70

The destruction of the USSR was numero uno on the agenda of the Nazis. How did that end up? Here again the Russian people are facing the Nazis once more. There is no doubt on the outcome of this new attempt; ANNILIHATION of the Nazis and their backers

Posted by: Cuffy | May 9 2022 19:14 utc | 71

@Root-44
Hey I tried to post a list of links to mainstream MSM on pre-SMO articles re: Ukraine and Nazis funded by the west….I think it got locked as spam. Here is a OSCE report in lieu of that list. I know they are compromised but its something:

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf

Posted by: Chevrus | May 9 2022 19:16 utc | 72

Another Good One, Bernhard. Thank you.

No Rational Person would want Kolomoiskyy and his Vassals Zelenskyy and Bandera-Nazi gain Nuke Weaponry.

As we've witnessed the Bandera-Nazi engaged in the Ethnocidal Removal of Russian-Speaking UKRanians, adding Nukes to their Worldview of "Leading a Race War to Eradicate or Subjugate Non-Whites and those Not-Whiter-than-themselves" will have disastrous consequences.

Once the East and South Oblasts are Freed from Kiev-Lvov-Nazi Control, Kiev-Lvov should suffer a "Heavy Metal, Light Footprint Rendition" of "De-Militarization and De-Nazification".

Perhaps CHN and IND will Deploy PKO Forces over Kiev-Lvov - followed by UN_PKO once RUS have Called It and Withdrawn to "NovoRussia".

Posted by: IronForge | May 9 2022 19:16 utc | 73

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 14

+1, most of the EUs economy will be able to cope but the inflation coupled with the EZBs deadlock re quantitative easing / zero interest will have a real effect on the citizens. All that plus the other costs of transforming the economy could have serious implications on the societies which might lead to uprisings in several (southern) EU states.

Posted by: Zet | May 9 2022 19:22 utc | 74

Btw, the latest article on Der Spiegel has it completely upside down on the story of that tiny island:

Title: Was der Angriff auf die Schlangeninsel über Kiews Luftwaffe verrät

Die Luftwaffe der Ukraine ist klein und mit oft alter Technik ausgestattet. Trotzdem gelingen ihr immer wieder spektakuläre Schläge gegen die russischen Angreifer, zuletzt auf der Schlangeninsel. Wie schafft sie das?

What the heck are they smoking?

Posted by: Zet | May 9 2022 19:25 utc | 75

I disagree re unanimity voting in the EU - that never made any sense @69

Nothing in EU ever made any sense.

(Have you noticed that the US almost never approaches the EU but only the member states when trying to promote US policies? Only when they need a European decision that will harm collectively the European ppl they are working through Ursula and Michelle. )

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 19:27 utc | 76

re historical truth...need some advice...

I recently found a missing link, of sorts, that might explain the vengeful and extreme circumstances of death penalties for Julius and Ethel Rosenberg in 1953.

...that Julius R stole a working unit [model] of the radar Proximity Fuze and handed it over to the Soviets about 1943.. If that is true, it is a very big deal bec that item was top secret. [Like the A-bpmb, the British Crown had the early jump in those fields but, lacking resources, could not make headway to a workable product...thus needing the US to develop both of them.]

The PFuze would automatically detonate when a device was exactly a certain, programmable distance from a target...and was huge advance in weaponry. It had to be accurate, tiny and survive 1,000s of G forces when in a shell fired-from a cannon.etc....in the early 1940s!]

I have not before heard the story that JR stole a PF unit for the Soviets. Can anyone confirm this is true?

I read of it on the internet on an allegedly credible site while searching for s/g else.


Posted by: chu teh | May 9 2022 19:28 utc | 77

On the Snake Island attack, this RT report provides some curious info:

"The assault was ordered personally by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday, and the plans to take the island were made by the general staff in Kiev 'with direct participation' of advisers from the US and the UK, Konashenkov added." [Emphasis Original]

IMO, Keiv's general staff has at least one mole as such info is very unlikely to be obtained via radio intercept as there's no reason to transmit such info. Same with Zelensky's orders, although there's greater probability that those orders were intercepted. Thus alerted, the Ukies suffered as did the 7th Cavalry.

Also: "Ukrainian losses also included three ‘Centaur’-class assault boats, also known as Project 58181, sunk during an attempted night landing on May 8," which would be all three according to the above link.

Given the troop capacity and crews of the three boats, jets and helos, I'd say 100+ KIAs resulted--and those were likely elite-level forces. I wonder if any "advisors" were aboard to share their fate?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 19:28 utc | 78

@35 njet

You apparently thinks I'm a Green Liberal that speaks lofty phrases, but can't back up the rhetoric with concrete proposals. For the benefit of readers that don't speak German, I provide here a (hopefully accurately) machine translation of njet's remarks to me @35:

You would be a perfect speechwriter for the GREEN warmongers at their next party congress, Mr Pfotzner. To come up with something sworn in the direction of "innovation", "opportunity" and "departure", without even a concrete idea of what this new start should actually consist of. Shit, the main thing is hope. Germany will have to wait a long time for the Chinese economy to deliver yesterday's stuff.

I'm not going to comment on the interaction between the German and Chinese economies. I'll just focus on what the German economy (as proxy for N. Europe) may - and maybe will likely - do. The U.S. economy will delay the redesign of our economy as long as possible (via extracting wealth from "colonies").

1. Fossil fuels. Most fossil fuels get used for electricity generation (coal) and motor transport (oil for Internal Combustion Engine "ICE"). Most air pollution is a result of ICE and coal-generated electricity. Most electricity is used for home and business HVAC, secondarily for mfg'g.

1.1 Potential (likely) solutions:

Retire ICE, replace with electric motors (simpler, much more energy efficient). Eliminate office- and retail-commute in metro areas (telework's efficacy / desirability demonstrated during Covid). Insulate homes, upgrade HVAC equipment to latest performance level.

2. Materials. Most materials use is once-and-done. Notable exceptions are aluminum, steel, lead (easy to recover). Right now, we dig up, refine, transport, manufacture, transport-again, retail, transport-again, use at home/business, transport-again, dispose at landfill or sewer-to-estuary. Once and done.

2.1: Potential (likely) solutions: design products for re-use / reclamation. Design products to last. Re-design supply-chains for re-use, not single use. Put mfg'g (or at least matls warehouse) right next to reclamation center. Eliminate landfill, repurpose facility as reclamation / mfg'g center). Distribute manufacturing to be close to end-use-point to facilitate mat'l re-use. Economics of mfg'g has changed substantially last 40 yrs. Given advances in CAD/CAM, 3D-printing, etc. it is possible to do this and retain much mfg'g efficiency, and gain comparable-or-better full-supply-chain energy-use and mat'l sourcing efficiency.

3. Energy sourcing. Holding aside the nuclear-gen possibility - and nuke's got a lot of merits - another alternative is solar and wind. "But it's intermittent!". Yes. So convert intermittent energy inputs into a fuel, store the fuel, and use the fuel to generate energy when sun/wind isn't providing. What fuel? Methane or ammonia. Germans are great, great chem and industrial plant engineers. Use the talent. Methane (CH4)is natural gas; pipelines already in place. Ammonia (NH3) is harder to handle, but atmosphere is 80% nitrogen, plenty feedstock. Ammonia and methane fuel cells extant now, can be used to convert fuel to electricity on-demand.

OK, that's enough to provide enormous industrial boom-times for N. Europe. It would solve, or certainly help-solve their energy-competitiveness, manufacturing, export-market (differentiated and highly desirable products, needed world-wide), and internal energy needs for the forseeable future. There's your "concrete".

Now, let's hear you rebut those points. Let's see if _you_ can do any concrete-work.

The spelling of my name is "Pfotzer", not "Pfotzner".

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 19:36 utc | 79

@Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 14

"The West's installed economic physical plant is bordering on obsolete"

Thanks for pointing this out. Much of the infrastructure that the Western economies run on came from the early/mid twentieth century, or even the nineteenth century when we look at things like London's fresh water and waste pipes. When New York was hit with Hurricane Sandy and the subway was flooded, much was made of the electricity lines insulated with paper from when the New York subways were first built. Every year, there is a US report on infrastructure where it is stated once again that spending is significantly below basic maintenance levels. If only a tenth of the military budget was redirected to infrastructure spending (US$80 billion/yr) it would help a lot, but instead money is thrown at "space force". A high tech layer sitting on top a crumbling low-tech base.

Europe, Japan and parts of Russia were forced to go through a massive replacement process after the destruction of WW2, so their systems are more circa 1950-1970. China's infrastructure, along with ASEANs are only a decade or two old - still in the low maintenance phase. Because China is building a lot of infrastructure it is also benefitting from the "learning while doing" and scale factors, plus lower labour costs, so building/repairing things in China is much cheaper than the US. Interestingly, figures show that Europe is also much more efficient than the US at this. The US seems to have gone through an "unlearning while not doing" process, meaning that the $'s don't produce as much as they used to.

And now, as you point out, all of the physical things needed. to rebuild infrastructure are going up in price. And an awful lot of that comes as imports for the US given the ongoing shrinkage of the industrial sector. On so many levels, the West is operating on fumes. It reminds me of the Road Runner cartoon with the Wile E. Coyote moments.

Posted by: Roger | May 9 2022 19:40 utc | 80

No sources, no evidence, however one should suspect that a contested or conquered Snake Island sets the stage for a tactical nuclear false flag blamed on Russia as a "scorched earth" retribution.

That could be the plan.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 9 2022 19:40 utc | 81

@Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 17:22 utc | 14

"The West's installed economic physical plant is bordering on obsolete"

Thanks for pointing this out. Much of the infrastructure that the Western economies run on came from the early/mid twentieth century, or even the nineteenth century when we look at things like London's fresh water and waste pipes. When New York was hit with Hurricane Sandy and the subway was flooded, much was made of the electricity lines insulated with paper from when the New York subways were first built. Every year, there is a US report on infrastructure where it is stated once again that spending is significantly below basic maintenance levels. If only a tenth of the military budget was redirected to infrastructure spending (US$80 billion/yr) it would help a lot, but instead money is thrown at "space force". A high tech layer sitting on top a crumbling low-tech base.

Europe, Japan and parts of Russia were forced to go through a massive replacement process after the destruction of WW2, so their systems are more circa 1950-1970. China's infrastructure, along with ASEANs are only a decade or two old - still in the low maintenance phase. Because China is building a lot of infrastructure it is also benefitting from the "learning while doing" and scale factors, plus lower labour costs, so building/repairing things in China is much cheaper than the US. Interestingly, figures show that Europe is also much more efficient than the US at this. The US seems to have gone through an "unlearning while not doing" process, meaning that the $'s don't produce as much as they used to.

And now, as you point out, all of the physical things needed. to rebuild infrastructure are going up in price. And an awful lot of that comes as imports for the US given the ongoing shrinkage of the industrial sector. On so many levels, the West is operating on fumes. It reminds me of the Road Runner cartoon with the Wile E. Coyote moments.

Posted by: Roger | May 9 2022 19:44 utc | 82

An open letter to the American people, as Russia celebrates its WW2 victory over the Nazis - is being blocked apart from a few sentences ... any one with a copy?

Posted by: Geraint AP Iorwerth | May 9 2022 19:51 utc | 83

What I consider an inspiring and awesome video accompanied by The Sacred War performed by the Alexandrov Red Army Choir is a fitting way to spend 3.5 minutes on VE-Day, a holiday the West has forsaken.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 19:55 utc | 84

Geraint AP Iorwerth @81--

I linked to it @63; are you unable to access it?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 19:57 utc | 85

@robin | May 9 2022 18:44 utc | 52

when a plane is in a shelter or in any bigger hangar it is difficult to evaluate the exact location (you may need more ammo) or if it is there at all and the state of the airframe (that may lead to a waste of ammo on scrap). Except you have HUMINT from the very site.

Look at the US strike at Syria in 2017 (the Russian or Syrian evalutaion thereof) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Shayrat_missile_strike
The runway was repaired next day, and the airframes under shelters that was hit, were mostly scrap metal.

Posted by: BG13 | May 9 2022 20:01 utc | 86

Snake Island;
As you can see from the following quote (Russian channel Rybar on Telegram), the lauching points for the Neptune missiles that sank the Moskva, would not have been visible or under direct radar surveillance from Sevastopol. But any Russians on Snake Island might have had a better view of the three potential launch points. (Still 180 kilometers) The Ukie attempted landing was to be able to continue to use the same (or a close) launch point against any future sea attack towards Odessa. They would have also secured sea transport routes to and from Romania.

It is not sure that they won't try again!

Probable positional areas of the anti-ship missile "Neptune" near Odessa

The Ukrainian command has repeatedly announced the use of Neptune anti-ship missiles against Russian ships in the Black Sea. Although the complexes pose a serious danger in themselves, we must not forget that under the "Neptunes" it is actually possible to "legend" the anti-ship systems of the NATO countries.

Until recently, the exact location of the complexes was unknown. However, launcher positions must satisfy several important criteria:

▪️ The possibility of a complete overview of the water area and the simultaneous secrecy of the terrain

▪️ Availability of missile launch points and quick escape routes to the shelter area

The Rybar team analyzed the possible locations of the Ukrainian Neptune complexes.

Zhevakhova Gora in Odessa corresponds to the most clearly voiced criteria. It is located at an altitude of more than 40 meters above sea level, and the highest point is hidden from the Black Sea and the coast.

In the vicinity of the mountain there are three potentially convenient points for the location of the DBK. From these positions, you can freely aim at targets under the cover of earthen hills, and the range of the complex allows you to hit objects at a great distance (up to 280 km).

Coordinates:
➖ 46.542373, 30.734370
➖ 46.543719, 30.733395
➖ 46.545665, 30.731672

And taking into account the constant intelligence support from the United States and NATO countries, there is no need to waste time on aiming at the target: getting out of cover, striking and retreating to a closed position takes the shortest possible time.

Posted by: Stonebird | May 9 2022 20:08 utc | 87

robin @ 52
Is anyone satisfied with the idea that russian intelligence cannot find an amphibious assault ship?

They took it our when it needed to and that is all that matters. Aircraft can take of from and land on roads as well. Cammo on the ground can be effective in hiding aircraft. The do not necessarily need to be on an airfield if you are operating in very small numbers which appears to be the case here.

Taiwan is doing just that, dispersing its fighters away from airfields. Why didn't the Ukraine do that if they were expecting Russia to invade? Poor planning? Poor advice form NATO? Probably that and more.


Posted by: circumspect | May 9 2022 20:12 utc | 88

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 19:36 utc | 78

re enrgy sources

IIMO the possibility of shaping the atmosphere [or space] to act as lens or otherwise selectively bend/focus sunlight to increase [or decrease] localized radiation should be studied for desirable heat/cool effects, etc.

Controlling cloud-cover, humidity, opaqueness, etc are already under experimentation, so cariable concentration of Sun's radiation is just a next step. Artificial moons? Electromagnetic grids? Tractor/pusher beams?

Make a good UN project from its new HQ in Damascus.

Posted by: chu teh | May 9 2022 20:16 utc | 89

Roger @ 80

Chicago still has a few wooden water mains. Worse than that, they are busy terminating for cause all the old guys who know how to work on those mains, or slightly newer and important mains, because the old guys have pensions coming that can’t be paid. As it becomes plain to everyone it is a fools errand to work for Chicago Water more than a few years there is not much hope for keeping that infrastructure alive. And no way to pay for full replacement. Feels to many of us the plan is to flush the whole city. Even ten years ago I was in the civic frame of mind that thought this was the worlds greatest city. No one is planning for this place to be here another ten years.

Posted by: Oldhippie | May 9 2022 20:25 utc | 90

Snake island is bullseye on anything you place there. It is small without any cover or camouflage. 3 or 4 iskander ballistic missiles with cluster warheads can obliterate anything you place on it, and its air defenses (anything short of S-400, which Ukies don't have) can't do anything about those incoming missiles.

It would have only peacetime value, during the war it is warhead magnet.

Posted by: Abe | May 9 2022 20:25 utc | 91

In response to robin@52,

And yet, even if those planes manage to takeoff in time to avoid incoming strikes, where are they going to land and shelter immediately following the strike?

I remember seeing reports of Ukrainian jets landing in Romania, early on in the campaign, so if there's enough fuel to cross into foreign airspace I would expect that's the preferred alternative. But, there was also video footage of planes having successfully landed in fields, and that too is reasonable. Putting up a tarp hangar is even less resource intensive than patching potholes in a runway and there's no good way to know, at least from aerial surveillance, whether they're all empty or if there's one working jet for every 100 hangars or what.

Having said all that, there's little doubt that the Russian estimate of military equipment available to the Ukrainians ended up being short of the mark, and it's difficult to determine whether that was due to faulty intelligence and hidden strategic reserves or if these systems are being drawn directly from Western supplies. Ukraine always had a sizeable air fleet, but the majority of it grounded and in disrepair and even the planes that were in service often suffered catastrophic malfunctions in flight. It's not like we're talking about some massive resurgence in Ukrainian air-power, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that part of the grounded reserve of jets was "decommissioned" in such a way that it ended up in some former Warsaw pact countries and continues to be serviced off the books. Rumors and accusations about Ukraine smuggling weapons and weapons-tech in the form of "scrap-metal," which formed the basis for a suspiciously profitable market, have always floated around -- who knows?

How about the amphibious assault ship. What kind of tonnage are we talking about here and how does one hide something like that?

If it was a Centaur as reported, then it's not very impressive. But I don't think it's a question of hiding. As long as Ukrainian ships stay docked, there's simply no good reason to destroy them while the blockade is in effect. If they run the blockade, like this one presumably did, then naturally they'll be destroyed or even captured. While the Ukrainian ability to continue low intensity air operations is likely seen as a nuisance, I don't think Russia is worried about their fleet at all.

Posted by: Skiffer | May 9 2022 20:35 utc | 92

chu teh @87--

As I've reported before, China aims to build an orbital solar collection/transmission station. This is a recent article about the project in Chinese and more can be found.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 9 2022 20:36 utc | 93

#9 Probably from Romania and flying a very low altitude. Death wish of course and useless, that won't change the end result.

Posted by: AM | May 9 2022 20:54 utc | 94

Posted by: laguerre | May 9 2022 18:09 utc | 32

"Idiocies on the part of UvdL don't destroy an institution."

Small quibble: I think the EU is an 'institution' but Europe is more like a cultural region or civilization. She won't get rid of the people and culture but she might help make the EU too dysfunctional to continue as an institution.

A consummation devoutly to be wished.

There is a small possibility that this war will so stress major European's kow-towing reflex to the Almighty America that they knock themselves silly. Maybe they go into a coma. Maybe afterwards they wake up and decide to stop kow-towing any more and take back the reins of their own cultures and destinies. Maybe then they align themselves with Russia and China and join into a peaceful Eurasian rise. If Europe, Russia and China form the spine of Eurasia including major players like Turkey, Pakistan, India, other stans, Malaysia et alia and the Koreas, well, we are on the verge of a potential Golden Age.

Gunter Frank's Reorient book written decades ago was ahead of its time. One factoid therein: China's long history features cycles of roughly 250 down periods alternating with 500 year up periods. The last down period began around 1750 at the same time that the Spinning Jenny was invented by an Englishman who wanted to keep buying goods from India and China but because easy plunder of silver and gold from what they called (erroneously) 'the New World' was no longer forthcoming, he hit on the idea of under-pricing cotton to sell in India in order to earn silver to buy manufactured goods in Asia. Europe didn't have a single product he could bring over in his ships that Asia wanted, they were so far behind in everything.

In any case, around 1750 a long-term down cycle began. But towards the end of the 1900's that cycle began to end. They are moving forward mightily now. Mariupol smashed to smithereens? No worries: China can rebuild it twice as large in about as much time as it took to destroy it.

A New Age is dawning and if Europe is smart enough to develop the necessary cojones, she should get on board because culturally she has a huge amount to offer. Just think: good quality French and Italian food from Berlin to Vladisvostock! Silk stockings from Venice on the Silk Road! UK spam dispensers galore! And Louis Vitton luggage to cart it over in on the 500 mph maglev trains they'll soon be making.

America needs a reboot and several decades detox from funny money regimes.
But to help them take that plunge, first Europe needs to give them the boot.
(Hint: start with Ramstein after a war crimes trial involving biolabs in the near and far Eurozone!)

Posted by: Scorpion | May 9 2022 21:01 utc | 95

@80 Roger: Yes to all. Sometime one of us should do a quick energy-loss estimation for the supply chain of row-crops (corn, soy) thru human-food-input, or better yet thru to the point of exit at sewage treatment plant into the estuaries.

Think about how heavy fertilizer is, how heavy corn is, how far it's transported, the efficiency of ICE (about 35%), the feed-to-food conversion of the typical beef steer (10 inputs to 1 food output), the energy input of processing, refrigeration, distribution, packaging...and then the human's gastro-system conversion efficiency (what, maybe .2 ingestion-conversion-blood sugar or cell proteins efficiency?) and then all that gets flushed into the rivers, no NPK reclamation, just contamination.

Consider those (several!) _miserable_ efficiency coefficients: several ICE trips, each at .35, steer input-to-food production .1, some more trips - distribution and retail-to-home, human input-to-body-mass conversion efficiency of .2....it's a wonder if our food systems end-to-end conversion is better than 2%. The numbers would be similar / slightly better for pork & chicken, a little better than that for veg and fruit, since they need less production inputs per unit output.

That conversion efficiency is really, really bad. We should be horrified at that miserable level of performance.

Think about this: this row-crop-beef/pork supply chain is _the_ core industry for N. & S. Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, good bit of NY, PA, Ohio, WVA, VA, N & S Carolina's economy. Add in Ag's supply chains (tractors, fuel, railroad, highways, trucks, fertilizer plants, Potassium and Phosphorus fertilizer)....that's a whopping big part of our U.S. economy. All to drive a core "business process" whose end to end efficiency is _maybe_ 2 percent.

Horrific. No wonder we're so screwed.

And that's just one econ sector, altho I did commingle some transport / distribution aspects.

=======
James - thx for the head's up re: Sushi's gender. Sushi - sorry, I'll try to pay better attn, it just got by me.
=======

Chu Teh - sounds good. Not sure how to do it, but there's no question that there's a whole lot of energy avail in space.

I do believe very much in the innovation and imagination capacity of humans. Not all of them, of course, or we wouldn't have to spend our time raging about nuke wars and frittering away our environment because we're too stupid (present company excepted, of course) to find our bottom with both hands. There is that.

I'm all for moving UN to Damascus. Then the Syrians could charge Israelis double for admission, maybe more, until the Golan / Palestine gets un-stolen back to its rightful owners.

I'm not a big fan of the We Are The Chosen People philosophy, wherever it happens to manifest.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 9 2022 21:06 utc | 96

I am the guy that is neutral to this conflict. I was asked why. The reason is: Russia did attack Ukraine. This was illegal. Same time I understand Russias securities problem, but I do not agree with how they dealt with it. Why not just protect Donbass? Same time we have two wars: one is on the ground (UKR vs RU) and the one, that officially does not exist, is the US/Nato against RU. This is the way more dangerous bc. of nukes on boths sides. I do not accept BOTH ways of dealing with the conflict. (Those lines were just for the guys asking me about why I am "neutral".)

My point today is:

I can understand why in Germany banners of the RF and Ukraine were not allowed. They are both parties in this awful war that must STOP! However what I cannot accept is one thing: as bad as Stalin was, how horrible often their "socialism" was, how little they cared about single individuals (all true) - I am fully aware of this background (which makes me every 9th of May sad), those people from the USSR faught the 2.nd most powerful army of planet Earth at that time. And they won. And they LIBERATED Europe from the worst of the worst. For that I can only thank them. They are my heros! And again - by no means - prefect heros but the BEST that was available at that time. Thank you Red Army!!!!! And thank you all those brave men and women who did it and risked and lost their lives for me living not under NAZI-dictatorship!!. For me that has nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine today. Their fight may never be forgotten! Therefore it is a shame what happened today in Poland and other places. And the western media, in its present war propaganda setting, does not give a shit about that. What a shame!

Posted by: Tom | May 9 2022 21:07 utc | 97

Re: karlof1 @63,

I've followed Scott Ritter for years ever since shortly after the Iraq war when he came out against the US was on Iraq. Over the past 2-3 yrs I think he's gotten much angrier with the US political class. In twenty-10s his criticisms of the US seem largely with how these US actions were flawed, hubristic and would fail. By 2018 Scott seems to have fully embraced the argument (something that most of us here already believed in) that the US actions were motivated by corruption and serving the needs of the M.I.C. However, in the past 2 years has gotten much more harsh in his criticisms of specific people in the US government (Michael Mcfaul, Obama's ambassador to Russia gets quite a reaming from Scott on an almost monthly basis). Aside from McFaul, I've heard Mr Ritter harshly criticize the Clintons, Albright, Julia Ioffe, Obama, Colin Powell, Antony Blinken, John Brennan, James Clapper, Jake Sullivan, Victoria Nuland, Richard Kagan & Evelyn Farkas. Most of these fiends were involved in the Russiagate scam, I'm curious if Mr Ritter has inside sources that have let slip to him more information about what these figures were doing and that this has really focused his criticisms and has pushed him to see the current crisis in US-Russo relations as being the result of deliberate criminal conspiracy to conceal corruption rather than rival geo-political interests or simple incompetence like he did before?

Posted by: Kadath | May 9 2022 21:08 utc | 98

And somehow I prefer a fascist who wants to dismantle NATO than one who wants to preserve it and expand it.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 19:09 utc | 66

Well, if that's what you meant, Le Pen never wanted to dismantle NATO nor even to leave it. Anyway, anyone who says they want to terminate NATO or EU even though it's needed are nuts. NATO and EU will dismantle by themselves sooner or later.

Posted by: xiao pignouf | May 9 2022 21:13 utc | 99

And somehow I prefer a fascist who wants to dismantle NATO than one who wants to preserve it and expand it.

Posted by: DG | May 9 2022 19:09 utc | 66

Well, if that's what you meant, Le Pen never wanted to dismantle NATO nor even to leave it. Anyway, anyone who says they want to terminate NATO or EU even though it's needed are nuts. NATO and EU will dismantle by themselves sooner or later.

Posted by: xiao pignouf | May 9 2022 21:13 utc | 100

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