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May 29, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-77
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https://t.me/ZandVchannel/14664
Russia will settle accounts with holders of Russian Eurobonds using a mechanism similar to the payment scheme for Russian gas in rubles. To do this, foreign investors will need to open foreign currency and ruble accounts in a Russian bank, the Vedomosti newspaper writes, citing Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
Hmmm… let’s see. To buy something from Russia (Natural Gas now, later most things) you need to pay in Rubles. So in Europe you open 2 accounts in a Russian bank, one Euro account and one Rubles account. You pay in Euro, and the bank makes the exchange into Rubles, which is used to pay for the gas.
But how to “get rid of” the accumulated Euro?
Well, to settle accounts with holders of Russian Eurobonds, foreign investors will need to open foreign currency and ruble accounts in a Russian bank. Rubles are payed to the Ruble account, the bank exchanges the rubles into Euros and pays Euros to the foreign investors.
Did I get that right?
Posted by: Norwegian | May 30 2022 13:53 utc | 201
There are some crucial issues that people need to keep in mind when considering “How far will Russia go?” and “How long can the Ukraine hold out?” and “Will western weapons reverse the course of the war?”
First is that fancy weapons systems are useful for winning battles, but not wars. Since WWII America has had hands-down the very fanciest weapons systems, and despite near constant warring that gives its troops and officers lots of experience America has not really won any of its wars with the possible exception of its war on the island of Granada. When you try to win a war by weapons alone and the population doesn’t want you there then you will eventually lose the war. America is a capitalist state, and head of a capitalist empire. Once it has achieved some military victories it invariably, as in every single last time, sets up gangsters and warlords in power who can become the newly conquered lands’ new capitalist elites and who serve the empire’s capitalist elites. This is unavoidable as it is the whole point of the empire waging the war in the first place.
Can the empire’s installed gangsters and warlords win the hearts and minds of the population? They can win a little bit by splashing around some of the wealth they steal from the conquered lands. Problem is they can only splash around the wealth they steal, less what imperial businesses take, and less what the gangsters and warlords themselves take, so they can only ever buy off a small portion of the population.
So how do they maintain control? With Nazis. Or more accurately various fascist formations created the way the Nazis were. Death squads and domestic terrorists.
How do Nazis maintain control of a society? There are two basic dynamics. First is, of course, terror. Nazis act with impunity as they are backed by the mass media presstitutes, police, workplace managements, and school administrations. Nazis can kick in your door and drag you out of bed at 4AM (they like doing that), drag you off to a dungeon, and torture you to death. And there is nothing you can do about it because they are super powerful and untouchable. If you have thoughts the Nazis wouldn’t approve of then you had best keep them to yourself. If you tell others of your anti-Nazi ideas then not only will you end up mutilated and your carcass left on the street corner as a reminder to the neighbors, but whoever you shared your ideas with will end up dead there with you.
The second dynamic is that people want to be on the “winning team”, particularly when the losers tend to end up as a pile of body parts left in a gutter, or a barbecue in a trade unions building. People will profess their adoration of the Nazis because strength is attractive.
With these dynamics it should be easy to see why the empire’s mass media presstitutes are twisting themselves into logical pretzels to push the narrative of how wonderful the Ukraine’s Nazis are, and how invulnerable and mighty they are. This should make clear the hyper aggressive silencing of all counter-narratives. This is because the actual death squad Nazis can only ever be a small portion of the population and their mightiness and invincibility is an illusion created by mass media and deference from other power centers in capitalism (police, management).
There is a criticism of the America approach to war which is that the more energetically America kills “terrorists” the more it creates “terrorists”, and this criticism is entirely justified. It needs to be understood that this criticism does not apply to denazification. The more Nazis that Russia kills the more it cuts across the two key dynamics discussed above that empower the Nazis. As the population sees the Nazis being crushed that population will lose its fear/worship of Nazis. Hopefully the attentive reader can see where such a process leads!
The Nazis will eventually lose any support of the population they currently have as the Russians destroy the dynamics that give the Nazis the appearance of power. This will result in the collapse of any authority the Nazis have in Ukrainian society and the population will turn against them. Nazi mayors and political officers will get lynched by Ukrainian mobs. Western presstitutes will call this a collapse of morale in the Ukraine, but interestingly it will be the exact opposite. The population turning on the Nazis will represent an upsurge in optimism, even amidst the death and destruction of war.
It is tough for me to say where this “tipping point” is in Ukrainian society as I am not there with my finger on the pulse of that society, but the “tipping point” does exist and the Russians are working inexorably towards it. The sooner Ukrainian society passes this “tipping point” the less destruction and rebuilding will be needed. Optimistically it might be passed when Kharkov is liberated from the Nazis, but I would bet definitely after Odessa is freed the rest of the Ukraine will go quickly.
Since denazification is a primary objective of the Russians, they will definitely not be calling it quits with just the liberation of Donetsk and Luhansk. They are going for the Polish border. This will take some time so be patient.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 30 2022 14:07 utc | 202
bevin @ 193
Yes, it is sad.
I have nothing for Ukrainian public opinion. I do see the many videos of platoons and companies and squads saying they will not fight but they also won’t surrender. Surrender to the Russians would keep them safe. They should be more afraid of Kiev and their own command than of the Russians. Then there are the many videos of POWs saying Russia treats them very well. Of course at that point they will say what they they are told to say. I am still inclined to believe them. Many videos of actual moment of surrender and the Russians behave with compassion. For myself I still remember the handcuff/waistband/leg iron routine for whenever the guards might imaginably be in danger. Russians aren’t worried. Prisoners know instantly this is not what they were told.
In US when anyone is arrested, or even detained for a moment, questioned, the police are going to hit you. As the surrenders happen there is none of that. The surprise of the surrendered is palpable. If you have never been assaulted by authority you won”t see things the same way.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 30 2022 14:37 utc | 203
@oldhipper #203
You said:
Surrender to the Russians would keep them safe.
It won’t keep their family and friends safe from the SBU
You said:
In US when anyone is arrested, or even detained for a moment, questioned, the police are going to hit you.
Having been on the LE side (but not being LE) during the arrests of literally dozens, I have never seen a single suspect get hit. And that includes foreign countries.
Not saying it doesn’t happen because it does, but it is by no means universal.
Posted by: c1ue | May 30 2022 15:07 utc | 204
c1ue @ 204
It has happened when you were standing right there and you didn’t see it. Perception works that way.
So you are LE. Onside, but not LE? Sure, that happens. You are a cop right here and every moment of your existence.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 30 2022 15:14 utc | 205
My take on Ukrainian public opinion (biased toward opinions from Kiev).
It’s the 40 and under crowd that is the ‘problem’. They have grown up as “Ukrainians” and been subject to relentless anti-Russian propaganda for the past couple of decades – truly unrelenting since 2014. People who were inclined to be sympathetic to Russia – Russian speakers who’s fathers served in the Soviet armed forces (still a large majority in 2004) – became disillusioned following the 2014 coup. The loss of Crimea was a big psychological blow. Ukrainians loved to “take rest by the sea” and would take the overnight train to Crimea in the summer to swim in the sea for both mental and physical health. Many of them spent time as kids at summer camps in Crimea. They were deeply offended by the change and loss of easy access. People in Kiev tended to think of the eastern regions as backward. They lived in the capital, a ‘European’ city with many foreign tourists, western goods in the shops (there to see even if you couldn’t afford them), and promises of eventual EU membership and easy travel to the rest of Europe. They looked down on Donbass refugees that flooded in after the fighting started in the east.
The main common complaint of the Ukrainian citizenry for decades has been government corruption and ineffectiveness. This is what fueled the popular support for the Maidan protests in 2004. All heads of state have lost favor following their election as it became clear that they were no better than the last crook and the economy began to deteriorate after 2000. While one might think that after 2014 when the economic deterioration accelerated with loss of trade and jobs tied to Russia people would have realized that they were being used by the West, but government anti-Russian propaganda seems to have been effective in assigning the blame to all things Russian – including the continuing war in the east against the separatists.
The propaganda has been so effective that at the start of the SMO when Kiev was being targeted, people who had been sympathetic to Russia all their lives overnight became Ukrainian patriots ready to defend their country against the attackers. Zero reflection about the causes of their situation. This sentiment will not dissipate easily. The war represents extreme uncertainty for them and they are not allowed to express any sympathy for Russia. The only thing they have at the moment is their feeling of national identity and solidarity in the face of a grave threat.
The Ukrainian political class is entirely, deeply corrupt. They have flirted and danced with the IMF, the West, and NATO only in order to line their own pockets. The SMO threatens their way of life. Poroshenko, the “chocolate king”, does business in Russia and is under indictment for treason for having made a deal with the Donbass republics to supply coal for Ukrainian power plants. Yet he prosecuted the war against the separatists mercilessly and refused to negotiate with them and implement the Minsk accords. totally amoral, completely typical.
Who can take power and negotiate with Russia? Only the military I think.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 30 2022 15:47 utc | 206
Posted by: Dungeon | May 30 2022 11:00 utc | 173
It is called Fire Bag
…. And thats what happened in kherson Region
Posted by: Kartoschka | May 30 2022 15:49 utc | 207
@ Peter AU1 | May 30 2022 5:52 utc | 153 / 154
thanks.. i agree with what you say! any subjective viewpoints on the topic of speculation does need to be contained within what putin and lavrov say and do too..
Posted by: james | May 30 2022 18:41 utc | 208
This ‘Gonzalo Lira” character is unbelievable. Is this some weird kind of joke?
Posted by: blues | May 30 2022 7:22 utc
I started having some doubts after the ‘capture by Ukr SBU’ episode.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | May 30 2022 19:06 utc | 209
Posted by: Kingsmeg | May 30 2022 19:06 utc | 209
“I started having some doubts after the ‘capture by Ukr SBU’ episode. ”
Ditto – he cannot still be in Ukraine – deported maybe. They are jailing ‘traitors’ and confiscating their property.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 30 2022 19:20 utc | 210
Ditto – he cannot still be in Ukraine – deported maybe. They are jailing ‘traitors’ and confiscating their property.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 30 2022 19:20 utc
I assumed his assets were largely outside Ukraine, so he was able to buy his freedom but chose to remain in Ukraine because he’s rebuilding his brand as ‘intrepid war reporter’. But there are other explanations, I simply don’t trust what he says for the same reason I don’t trust Scott Ritter. I do not know where his allegiance is.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | May 30 2022 19:57 utc | 211
Posted by: Kingsmeg | May 30 2022 19:57 utc | 211
But there are other explanations, I simply don’t trust what he says for the same reason I don’t trust Scott Ritter. I do not know where his allegiance is.
Well, he revealed his credentials here.
He is an expert on Mongolian history from liberal POV.
Posted by: hopehely | May 30 2022 20:15 utc | 212
The idiocy by EU just keeps on coming, imposing somewhat of a oil ban: an oil ban that will only fuel the crisis, cause Russia to respond in kind, drive up the prices for average europeans! Is there no friggin politicians that can stand up and voice dissent?
Posted by: Zanon | May 31 2022 7:40 utc | 213
Posted by: Zanon | May 31 2022 7:40 utc | 213
It is not what you think.
This is the “Green Agenda” – they have affiliated “fossil fuels” with “Big Bad Russia” and think they have the road clear for “The Energy Crisis and Green Reset”
These people do not want anything other than Existential Crisis so they can be the Firemen at the Blaze – even if they must first set the fire themselves. They want societal insecurity so they can get their dreams realised.
Remember what Lenin said: “Put Europe to the flames. In the ruins we shall build our new Jerusalem”
This is the mentality of these types – they are either 68ers or in their 40s. There is a real problem of unthinking fanaticism and German women are imbued with it –
This is Jonestown Cultism – People’s Temple – stuff.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 31 2022 9:33 utc | 214
‘…Lenin said: “Put Europe to the flames. In the ruins we shall build our new Jerusalem”..’
Paul Greenwood@214
When and where did “Lenin say” this?
Or is this just more neo-nazi propaganda?
Posted by: bevin | May 31 2022 17:05 utc | 215
@200 Figleaf23 | May 30 2022 13:50 utc
Those are four very crucial points, and thank you. Your fourth point deserves repetition because we never hear it:
4-Russia doesn’t want the Ukrainian state to collapse to the point there is no-one to sign a deal.
Indeed, Russia intends to reconstitute a real government in the Ukraine that its troops depart. This government should be a real and substantial one. It will be locked into accords that are unbreakable, with a neutrality on a par with Switzerland (as was).
And there will be the peace.
The other three points speak to Russia’s declared outcomes equally well, but are already more recognized by commenters.
Posted by: Grieved | Jun 1 2022 5:34 utc | 216
Grieved | Jun 1 2022 5:34 utc | 216 “Indeed, Russia intends to reconstitute a real government in the Ukraine that its troops depart. This government should be a real and substantial one.”
That is also my thought. I believe that what we are seeing now is a shaping action to create the circumstances under which that will occur.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 1 2022 6:16 utc | 217
The Macron/Scholz phone call to Putin was strange.
Macron will escalate once he has his government in place, which is June ‘22. In France people are a bit more objective and rational while in Germany it’s a dangerous because they’re behaving as if they’re on crack-coke. This Green party seems to be the worse because people like Baerbock, Habeck and Büttigkofer are plain dull and little by little everyone realises this. So its a mixture of desperation of this shaky government and being pushed by an irresponsible bunch of journos in so called “leading” media. It can crash in both countries in late autumn, kind of rebirth of this “yellow vest” movement.
Posted by: Ted | Jun 1 2022 14:02 utc | 218