Posted by: Olivier | May 29 2022 23:24 utc | 102
I suspect that Macron and Scholtz were not interested in the AZOV mob but in the hundreds? of French and German military personnel amongst the 2500 who surrendered. They are caught in a bind. Either they admit that these officers (and they would have been senior officers) were acting on the orders of their governments and therefore POWs or they are treated as mercenaries and therefore criminals.
If they admit they were still serving officers, NATO direct involvement in the war is confirmed. If I were Russia I would release (or exchange as POWs) only where their country of origin admits publicly they were actively engaged in the war as soldiers of NATO.

Posted by: watcher | May 29 2022 23:36 utc | 104

That is why I think Russia will not advance towards Odessa and will most likely pull its forces out of Kharkov oblast. Part of the negotiated settlement with the new government in Kiev will be that regions hold referendums.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 21:52 utc | 84>
Ludicrous. Which new government? No negotiation is possible with the nazis and their supports. Everyone knows what is happening when Russian troops are retiring. Cf. Butcha. Referenda could be held only when the nazis will be liquidated. For Kherson and Zaporoje there is already no way back, without a referendum.
The referendum was already held on the 17 March 1991.

Posted by: Olivier | May 29 2022 23:52 utc | 106

test

Posted by: Lavieja | May 30 2022 0:00 utc | 108

Either they admit that these officers (and they would have been senior officers) were acting on the orders of their governments and therefore POWs or they are treated as mercenaries and therefore criminals.
Posted by: watcher | May 29 2022 23:36 utc | 104
As neither France nor Germany is at war with Russia, citizens from both countries cannot be POW. Unfortunately we know nothing of prisonners of foreign countries. We only know that 6 foreign languages were spoken inside Azovstal. So anything else is guess work.
My guess (value close to zero like all guesses): Zelensky was obliged to order the surrender of the Ukrainians and nazis to save the foreigners after a deal decided between nazi supporting countries and Russia.

Posted by: Olivier | May 30 2022 0:04 utc | 110

Interview from five days ago with Colonel Douglas Macgregor (one of the very few people Martyanov respects) by Judge Napolitano…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa7puJrsJC0

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 30 2022 0:10 utc | 112

Posted by: Olivier | May 29 2022 23:52 utc | 106
Wasting your time. I gave up. There are some people who clearly don’t want Russia to take a comprehensive solution for their own reasons. We can only speculate what those might be.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 30 2022 0:12 utc | 114

peter
i agree sort of but i suspect after the sinking of the moscva and also the weird battle for snake island odessa has more importance.

Posted by: watcher | May 30 2022 0:23 utc | 116

The problem is that the US miss calculated the level of West’s economy destruction.
Posted by: Milos | May 29 2022 21:04 utc | 76
Has it? I for one did not assume that US and the “West” share the same goal. Does an apex predator sympathize with its prey? Nuland said …
Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 21:18 utc | 80
Well said, and the answer is; NO

Posted by: vetinLA | May 30 2022 0:40 utc | 118

People can’t comprehend that the statements from various Russian officials are frequently misleading. No Russian official says more than than he has to. They aren’t Biden blurting out actual intentions because of loss of mental control.
When it comes to overall policy – particularly when directed at the West – one can take Russian officials GOALS as precisely stated. What one can NOT take as precisely stated are the MEANS to those goals.
As an example, the draft treaties provided in December, 2021, were precise GOALS. What was stated as actions to be taken if they were rejected was the vague “military-technical measures.” What the fuck does that mean? People were puzzling over that for months and speculating on all sorts of stuff, including ridiculous bullshit like unilaterally attacking NATO countries.
Random comments like Lavrov’s “the Ukrainian people will decide” say absolutely NOTHING about Russia’s intended actions. Read. My. Lips. NOTHING.
There are a number of people here who don’t want Russia to take comprehensive actions to insure Russia’s security. They don’t want to think through what would logically be the necessary steps to do that. I suspect they’re simply afraid that Russia will do those things because they are afraid of the possible geopolitical consequences (which might include WWIII).
In short, the usual response of human beings to almost every problem is cognitive dissonance. They can’t accept the outcome, so they say the outcome isn’t possible, and they will make up whatever bullshit is necessary to support that position. Nonetheless it remains emotional bullshit.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 30 2022 1:02 utc | 120

Peter
it seems that both the donbass republics will be fully defended and kherson already is essentially part of Russia like Crimea.
i am inclined to agree that zaporizia and kharkov will be allowed to choose. just not sure about the black Sea ports

Posted by: watcher | May 30 2022 1:20 utc | 122

“Your ass is grass and I’m a lawnmower.”
As for Ukraine … Texas Bentley recently said his wish is that the Donbas Republics do not join Russia. They were already refused once.
“Russia does not do regime change.”
The reason to keep Donbas as part of Ukraine is that it has millions of voters sympathetic to Russia, anti-Nazis.
My assumption is that it will take a long time, a year or years, and that Ukraine will retain its existing borders, but elect a functional government with stated peaceful intentions towards Russia.
More details to come.

Posted by: jonku | May 30 2022 1:41 utc | 124

There should be a Moon of Alabama betting pool…How far into Ukraine will the Russian Military go?
I’d put my money on everything East of The Dneiper but no further. Keep Kherson but no Odessa.
@123 I don’t think the West will have the capability in ten years to be anything more than a nuclear armed nuisance.

Posted by: Haassaan | May 30 2022 1:47 utc | 126

As we discussed before the SMO, Russia has no real interest in owning or administering Ukraine.
Their best option would be a successful and healthy Ukraine, which requires the wealthy and educated East, not to mention the rich farmlands. There are fuel resources as well.
Ukrainians who did not flee to Russia seem patriotic, and they will have homes, businesses and farms which tie them to their homeland.
Removing the Nazis and the military tool of the criminal government will allow a functional state to redevelop. Denazification and demilitarization. A sane government will realize the idiocy of joining NATO — that would simply result in the continuance of the SMO.

Posted by: jonku | May 30 2022 1:55 utc | 128

Down South | May 29 2022 18:15 utc | 43
“However, the children who were with her said that this Nazi shot their parents and threatened to kill them.
Now she is waiting for his harsh sentence”
If someone were to ask me how evil the Nazis are I would use this example (if it turns out to be true). Pure evil?
I keep thinking this must be propaganda but often truth is worse than fiction.

Posted by: David G Horsman | May 30 2022 2:13 utc | 130

Raute @ 94 :
Ukraine is shelling with the new western howitzers last few ours intensivly residential areas in Donetsk.The civilians on the russian side are now paying the price for the fact that RF are not attacking supply lines from Poland and Slovakia.
Source and citation??? OR GTFO!

Posted by: Garry Owen | May 30 2022 2:29 utc | 132

Seems there are more military experts here than in the Russian command structure. Perhaps they should read this blog’s comment section to see what they should really be doing to better prosecute this war? I note the blog author doesn’t go down this road.
Fact is we don’t know what the Russians will do after they achieve Donbas liberation, what their strategic objectives are, how far they feel they can keep the West physically out of it. Of course Ukraine may simply refuse to negotiate after the Donbas falls in which case the Russians may not be able to turn off the war even if that was their preference.

Posted by: Organic | May 30 2022 2:42 utc | 134

Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2022 20:45 utc | 72
There have been reports – I seem to recall remarks by Lavrov – of various Latin American countries and Arab countries expressing interest.
I overreached with Japan and Korea I guess but was just imagining what they might feel like if/when the Western bloc economy starts tanking and/or they are being asked to keep boycotting trade with Eurasia which is growing.
In terms of history and post WWII order etc., this is a time of reset. The Russians are no longer the communists who closed one half of Europe off from another and raped millions of Germans. The Germans are no longer Nazis. The English no longer have an Empire. The EU no longer has the slightest forward momentum nor a single gifted leader. The US is no longer an inspiration to the world or even to herself. And so on. So maybe Japan and China can make up like France and Germany did decades ago. And maybe Korea and Japan the same. Because maybe they would like to get on board the multipolar train.
But then again: maybe not.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 30 2022 2:54 utc | 136

Today’s video from A. Martyanov: “We don’t know what Kremlin’s military plan is.” I guess some people here have more insight than he does.
My guess is that the military operation will proceed to the Dniper plus the Black sea coast and Odessa by New Years absent a capitulation and acceptable political settlement. Beyond that – ??

Posted by: the pessimist | May 30 2022 3:05 utc | 138

watcher, Immaculate deception
Poverty breeds problems. I think Russia would prefer a neutral moderately prosperous neighbor and access to the sea for exports and imports helps in that way. The entire black sea coast may well go to Russia but every way I look at it, that does not seem to be a target or goal. Snake island now belongs to Russia. That only holds military value so is part of demilitarization. I’ll see how I go on that last one but that’s my thoughts.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 30 2022 3:15 utc | 140

Peter
i think that originally Russia only intended to get land access to Crimea and to secure the republics but i rather suspect this has changed because of the response of the west

Posted by: watcher | May 30 2022 3:32 utc | 142

Russell Bentley never said no such thing. In 2014, Bentley saw a woman with her two legs blown off by the Nazis. She asked for a phone to call her relatives, but died looking up at the camera. Bentley left Texas and fought with the people of the Donbass. He points out the murderous atrocities of the western backed Nazis and is a citizen of Russia.
In many freed areas they have adopted the ruble and want to be a part of Russia. They blame Russia for not coming to their rescue in 2014. You can pick any fabricated bullshit from the thousands of lies that come out from the west, but I deal in facts.
The entire Eastern Ukraine must be taken and that includes Odessa, which I believe is part of Eastern Ukraine. The western Ukraine is for USA/ NATO to fix, after all you brought this on.
But since you never ever built back anything that you have destroyed; good luck to the west.

Posted by: Karl luck | May 30 2022 3:42 utc | 144

Russia simply must take Mykolaiv & Odessa and connect a land-bridge too Transnistria – at this point it has little choice.
At that point I would then sell peace by inviting Poland, Romania & Hungary to take bites out of Western Ukraine leaving a rump around Kiev in the middle that Russia would ‘control’ without the need for a military occupation.
At that point there would (or should) be a ‘Conference of Interested Parties’ to decide the fate of Ukraine.
Who are the ‘Interested Parties’?
They are (in order of importance): Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Belarus & Slovakia – in other words – Ukraine and all its neighbors.
Who is not an ‘Interested Party’? Any of the following: US, UK, EU, NATO, France, Germany or anyone else.
These 8 countries should hold a conference and come up with a comprehensive solution without any ‘Western’ meddling.

Posted by: Julian | May 30 2022 3:57 utc | 146

That comment above was meant for jonku.
Any idea that Ukraine will remain whole is entirely up to Russia and nobody else. The rabid racist Poles were told by the bosses in America to never set foot into Ukraine. Keep listening to the never ending BS if that’s what make some feel better.
This Summer many will start to realize that inflation, prices and shortages skyrocket, will cause protests in the entire west.
The reasons why you constantly call Russia is to BEG. But keep listening to your masters then coming out and telling you how they put Russia in it’s place. That is the sum total of the illiteracy and ignorance in the west.
I strongly suggest that in your feeling of superiority you go and attack China. China does not need Russia’s help to take care of you and vice- versa.
Some stats 2021: DW says Germany they want to end trade with China- trade to Europe 690 billion, USA 678 billion- tariffs by Trump caused 1.5 trillion in losses to America and 240,000 jobs, Canada 80 billion in trade to China.
China trade to Asia was 800 billion, Africa and the rest of the world another sum. So go and screw yourselves with all your big talk. They China, not you, can drop you and you and the West and you can sell inferior weapons to one another, or cars. Just not in China. Japan learnt that lesson years ago, when the Chinese stopped buying Japanese cars and products.

Posted by: Karl luck | May 30 2022 4:23 utc | 148

For a bit of levity…
Gary Brecher writes on his remembrances of NATO during his younger days. It’s a worthy read not only for the comical writing, but that he raises excellent points about the pathetic logic that has always been the underpinnings of NATO (and the US).
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/the-war-nerd-nato-a-memoir.html

Posted by: Seer | May 30 2022 4:57 utc | 150

lots of speculation… you guys are worse then astrologers and fortune tellers, lol… my advice… watch and pay attention… it is unpredictable at this point..

Posted by: james | May 30 2022 5:29 utc | 152

james
Putin – denazification. Lavrov – We do not do regime change. Neither are bullshitting.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 30 2022 5:55 utc | 154

Aleph_Null | May 30 2022 5:56 utc | 155
If Russia whacked a US missile base Romania or Poland, the response would be like a 60 year old prostitute crying rape. No one would care.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 30 2022 6:06 utc | 156

“If Russia whacked a US missile base Romania or Poland, the response would be like a 60 year old prostitute crying rape. No one would care.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 30 2022 6:06 utc | 156″
You are absolutely wrong.The Western MSM would immediately send out armies of „fact checkers² and triumph the virginity of that „girl“, censure any deviating voice and use it as a pretext for enlarging the military conflict as the present approach failed. A Sun Tzu-type of approach would be to remain cool, ignore and and finish the present conflict to its own logical end point. Not more!- What 1-2 promille of critical watchers „detect” is simply unimportant. They owe their present freedom to their irrevalance.

Posted by: Hausmeister | May 30 2022 6:47 utc | 158

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Posted by: کمپرسور اسکرو | May 30 2022 7:08 utc | 160

Is anyone following the YouTube site “War in the Ukraine”? It’s not obvious Ukrainian baloney. However he argues that Russia has “shot its bolt” and its forces are exhuasted leading to stalemate. The recent Ukrainian drive just east of Kherson, the site’s narrator claims, is stalled but is aimed to unhinge the entire Kherson front. So Russia is stuck in the mud and must either mobilize, use tactical nukes or make peace. The military variables of this war are unclear to anyone from the outside (probably unclear to many on the inside) so the basic narrative can be given a twist. The question is whether this channel is a subtle part of the Kyiv propoganda effort or whether the gent is making arguable points. Any opinions?

Posted by: Eric Bergerud | May 30 2022 7:27 utc | 162

There seems to be a misunderstanding about Lavrovs words. Which have been cut up by the MSM and Anti-Russians:
“Lavrov to French TV: “The priority of the Russian Federation is the liberation of the DPR and the LPR, the residents of Ukraine must determine their own future Russia protects people and the Russian language, which has been discriminated against and attacked by the Kiev regime”
2: “The Russian army will not adjust its actions to the dates, and the pace of the operation is associated with minimizing losses. The European Union will not be able to use its own armies —NATO will not allow it.”
3: “The sanctions have been prepared for a long time and are unlikely to be lifted in near future Putin ready to discuss Ukraine w everyone interested in resolving the conflict. Russia not cutting off path to dialogue with the EU, will judge based on practical matters”
**
I reckon that the major part of his words should be taken in light of the “legal” options that Russia is trying to create. I doubt that he was talking of strictly military matters.
*
ie. The liberation of LPR and RPR and their earlier declarations as independent Republics. They have decided. Whether any further assimilation is planned, which obviously I can’t know about.
*
ie. Kherson and other mainly Russian speaking areas now (or in the immediate future), where the inhabitants do NOT want to return to NazUkraine for fear of being eliminated. These areas must have some sort of referendum or consultations, to set them on a legal path to becoming Republics. (and eventually more if affinity) I think Lavrov was referring to this when he said ; “residents of Ukraine must determine their own future”.
He may be thinking further ahead, as Lira has a theory that the Ukrainian Military command will be forced to depose Zelensky and his Azov mates to stop the slaughter. In which case some sort of negotiations can take place. (Ukies decide their own sort).
*
2. Clearly the Russians have decided that the EU is no longer independent. The supply of arms depends on the relationships of EU individual nations with the US or Ukraine, but 3) Russia will always try to leave a door open (Sun Tsu).
**
Where the MSM had a field day is that he said the “Russians avoid civilian infrastructure”, and the MSM gladly showed ONLY high rise buildings that had been used by Azov and then destroyed. (they were in the higher levels, with probably civilians used as shields on the lower levels). A view of the reconstruction of Mariupol shows that there are areas that had minimal damage as well as the complete destruction of Azovstal.
*****
Snake/serpent Island. Would possesion of this island give a “zone” enabling drilling into the gas/oil fields around it? In the event of a separation of Odessa (which the US would want as a military port), then the fields to plunder become valuable pickings for the thieves. As in Syria etc.

Posted by: Stonebird | May 30 2022 7:39 utc | 164

@blues | May 30 2022 7:22 utc | 161

This ‘Gonzalo Lira” character is unbelievable. Is this some weird kind of joke?

The ‘joke’ is that British mercenary Aden Aslin publishes youtube videos from captivity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgS37LCsPIE
When that is possible, why not invite him to a livestream? I am guessing it will not happen, but the invitation underscores the surrealism of the situation.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 30 2022 7:56 utc | 166

Washington also actively encouraged uprisings in Warsaw Pact countries promising to send military help if the people just acted. Washington then shamelessly left the revolutionaries in the lurch. And then even worse, used the victims for propaganda thereafter.
Hungary 1956
Czechoslovakia 1968
Are the most well known examples of Washington’s evil ways, but there are more. What’s most shocking is modern Czechs and Hungarians believe the lies told to them by Washington to this day. What Fools

Posted by: exile | May 30 2022 8:19 utc | 168

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 29 2022 23:56 utc | 107

I just don’t see Russia taking another city militarily. Mariupol was critical – land corridor, Azov, Bio weapon lab, and I think a nato headquarters. The first phase was pure military, but now I think we have to start looking along Sun Tzu lines.

The Plan:

1. Destroy Army Group Centre.
2. Create “land bridges” from Kherson to Transdnistria, from Kherson to the Dnieper, and from Sumy to the Dnieper, encircling the cities of Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaparozhia, and Odessa.
3. Negotiate with Kiev.
4. If negotiations fail, move on to Kiev and start siege of cities.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 30 2022 9:45 utc | 170

.PetriK sez.. I just don’t see Russia taking another city militarily…” based on your chats with the Russian Military Intel chief, and your front line experience in Serbia, Libya and Congo, eh? Any way, thanks for the leaky, leak.. guess that makes another sleepless night.

Posted by: Thomas Turk | May 30 2022 10:50 utc | 172

Posted by: bottle | May 29 2022 20:44 utc | 71
An interesting comment.
The principle problem with all known manpad ‘stingers’. To reduce mass the range is short. Correspondingly, the target lock on range for the missiles active IR seeker is heavily restricted as well.
The Russians now operate the agile capable of a full loop KA-52’s in pairs. Along with a MI-28 gunship. KA-52. has a very handy standoff smart missile. With the KA-52 circling the prey! Well outside the manpad IR lock on range. Then when the stinger user(s) are toast. The MI-28 gunship local area fire power reduces what ever is left standing. With active target spotting drones circling over head…….

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 30 2022 11:02 utc | 174

Thanks MOA for the increase in crazies posting today
clicking links
I learned that
Adele is a fake (well that wasn’t a heard one to work out)
Elon Musk is a fake (ditto)
January 6 something or other at the Capitol was faked (okay its America after all)
The Ukraine war is a movie set fake with all sides playing along.
Why don’t conspiracy theorists ever quit while they are ahead?
But it seems that now we have GL, alive after (supposedly) being captured by those nice boys in the SBU, wanting to interview a fake British mercenary who used to be a health worker who is on You Tube while (supposedly) being held captive by the Russian Army.
LOL
it must be happy hour at the bar

Posted by: K | May 30 2022 11:25 utc | 176

The US/UK aren’t going to back off until they feel threatened.
Remember the Syria Douma ‘gas attack’ hysteria? The US/UK/France were making all sorts of threats of extensive military action, until a Russian general was asked what the response would be if Russian forces in Syria were attacked and he replied that Russia would first intercept the missile and then destroy the platform from which it was launched.
After that, the US/UK/France plans for military action were drastically scaled back and they played safe by hitting a few token, worthless targets.
The US/UK will push to the last Syrian/Ukrainian. In my view this conflict won’t end until Russia threatens military action against the US/UK/Nato. Make governments think about NY, London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, etc. being attacked and see how fast they find a way to back off.

Posted by: D J G | May 30 2022 11:31 utc | 178

Posted by: Norwegian | May 30 2022 7:56 utc | 166
Norwegian, thank you for the link to Aiden Aslin. I highly recommend that barflies read the comments– a number of Romanian and Russian posters give their perspective and add their family history in which they share stories from grandparents and great grandparents. Almost all of their accounts of Russian action are the same as we see unfolding today… along with German, Lithuanian, etc. Family stories that carry some “street cred” going forward. Impressive how vivid and detailed they can recount ancestors’ memories from the 1940s.
bottom line, support for Russia is likely much deeper and stronger in those neighborhoods– Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, etc.– than we know.
in my humble opinion. Here’s the link again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgS37LCsPIE

Posted by: migueljose | May 30 2022 11:44 utc | 180

Ref: “Tom Huck”
I know that you’re trying to shill your book … and I’d love to see your evidence and so would the police. …
One thing you should know is that Lese Majeste laws are very strict here and your remarks are guaranteed to get you at least ten years. A bit of advice – You really don’t want to end up in a Thai prison with 100s of convicts that revere the monarchy.
Posted by: Kevin | May 30 2022 8:57 utc | 169
Whatever else, the you’ll-watch-your-mouth-if-you-know-what’s-good-for-you tone marks you out as a giant POS.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 30 2022 11:56 utc | 182

Organic@134…we do know what Russia’s objectives are. Its been stated repeatedly by Lavrov, Putin et al. What they did not give anyone anywhere was a set piece time line. ACG gamers can put the controller down and head off to bed, where all ACGs go after a long slog at the keyboard. Do not fret, the Russians are coming. One can be with them, that’s me, or one can hide in a factory basement. As for turning off the pain, that’s an Orc issue, the 14,000 Ukrainians who died over the past 8 years do get a say.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 30 2022 12:06 utc | 184

marks you out as a giant POS.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 30 2022 11:56 utc | 182
What’s a POS?

Posted by: K | May 30 2022 12:11 utc | 186

@K | May 30 2022 12:09 utc | 185
No problem.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 30 2022 12:16 utc | 188

What’s a POS?
Posted by: K | May 30 2022 12:11 utc | 186
in polite society, point-of-sale, alias cash register

Posted by: sln2002 | May 30 2022 12:22 utc | 190

Posted by: Norwegian | May 30 2022 7:56 utc | 166
A most interesting video. Especially the dead give away of the nervous hand gestures.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | May 30 2022 12:41 utc | 192

John Goss | May 30 2022 11:06 utc | 175
The way it is panning out it looks like Russia and China were false friends to the US. The US and western economies (mainly UK & EU) were bust again for the same reason it has happened in the past – greed and stupidity. Russia and China get the gold the West gets the dirt.
Another patch (al la 2007/08) was not an option, the plan appears to have been to take control of the global financial collapse but this required all the economic powerhouses to participate.
Russia and China played along and allowed the West to destroy their own existence (relying completely on the crackpot new world order as the panacea).
The manufactured pandemic and war were part of the levelling exercise before the rebuild. Now the West is stuffed with no, zero, nada chance implementing its plan of world domination by the Elites, more worrying for them no possibility for them again the the shots.
Now there are two worlds, the haves and the have nots but not the one that has been so carefully (in a maniacal sense) prepared.

Posted by: Peter B | May 30 2022 13:00 utc | 194

Clown world:
rt /russia/556296-norway-belarus-new-name/
Norwegian Government has decided to change the name of the country Hviterussland (meaning “White Russia”) to “Belarus” (Meaning “White Russia”).
LOL

Posted by: Norwegian | May 30 2022 13:14 utc | 196

Two interesting articles on the military campaign in Ukraine.
http://www.defenddemocracy.press/may-update-a-war-to-the-last-ukrainian/
http://www.defenddemocracy.press/the-kursk-report-2022/

Posted by: bevin | May 30 2022 13:23 utc | 198

@ njet | May 29 2022 16:28 utc | 15
I think there are a few things at work that define the nature of the conflict on the ground:
1-Russia is reluctant to expend lives and equipment it may need to fight NATO;
2-Russia is reluctant to damage civilians and infrastructure in territories that will soon join or ally with it;
3-economic damage from sanctions and intra-western disagreements are intensifying as the conflict extends, so Russia is in no hurry to alleviate unfriendly nations from the effects of their own petards;
4-Russia doesn’t want the Ukrainian state to collapse to the point there is no-one to sign a deal.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 30 2022 13:50 utc | 200